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Ethereum Layer 2 network Blast announces cessation of operations, with the deadline for users to withdraw via the regular interface set for October 26, 2026.
At its peak, Blast attracted over $2 billion in funds, but due to network maintenance costs exceeding revenue and a lack of a sustainable economic model, the project ultimately chose to shut down.
For users, the most important thing now is to check the assets remaining on Blast. Besides ETH and tokens in wallets, users should also check deposits, lending positions, and other DeFi assets within ecosystem applications and handle them according to each specific application.
The official recommendation is for users to transfer assets back to the Ethereum mainnet through the normal interface. It should be noted that October 26 is the cutoff date for the regular withdrawal interface, but this does not mean assets will necessarily be permanently lost after this date. According to official arrangements, assets can still be withdrawn later via bridge contracts on the Ethereum mainnet, but the process will be more complex, with higher technical barriers and operational risks.
Blast's experience also reflects a reality in the Layer 2 space: high TVL does not equal a sustainable business model. Points, airdrops, and yield incentives can quickly attract funds but do not necessarily create long-term trading demand or sufficient network revenue.
For users, the immediate task is to withdraw safely as soon as possible; for the entire industry, the real test is whether short-term incentives can be converted into genuine demand sufficient to support long-term operations.Initia's chain stopped last night. From what I see, the first thing to check is your own wallet if you hold Initia's bridged tokens; the native INIT itself is actually less urgent.
I reviewed the timeline. At 23:27 Beijing time, the discoverer Spreek first raised the alarm on X, and the chain stopped at 23:41, a 14-minute gap. The team's zon initially judged it as a MoveVM zero-day exploit, where the attacker minted tokens out of thin air on L1, then cross-chained to swap about $2.7 million worth of AUSD, ETH, and USDC. The native INIT was not involved.
At first, I also thought AUSD was the problem. Agora later clarified clearly that they did not deploy contracts on Initia, AUSD itself is fully backed, and hacker-related addresses will be frozen. The issue was on the bridge: the extra minted tokens were sent back across the bridge to swap out the real assets, so the bridged tokens on Initia's side no longer had sufficient backing.
The official has not given a time for the chain to resume. When the official review is out, if it says the native INIT was also minted in excess, I will come back and admit my mistake. Early morning, the screen light reflects countless bloodshot eyes. The US stock market just closed, but the crypto market feels like a basement with the ladder pulled away—one step and you fall. Don’t rush to close your market software; the long-short data behind it sends chills down your spine.
First, look at $BTC, currently around 81200, quietly sliding down all night. The most heartbreaking is the 4-hour long-short ratio, steady at 2.28! The more BTC falls, the more retail investors treat it like a discount, crazily adding positions and holding on desperately. With the bulls so blocked, what reason do the main players have to push it up?
Next, $ETH struggles around 2395, with the 2400 support line barely holding. The 4-hour long-short ratio has surged to 3.05! The screen is full of bullish obsession; this vehicle is heavily burdened. Without thoroughly washing out the high leverage below, a reversal is out of the question.
Finally, $SOL weakens along at 103.2, with a long-short ratio of 2.62. Retail investors remain stubborn, and the short-term weakness is hard to change.
Summary: In this market, the more retail investors refuse to give up, the more distant the bottom becomes. I continue to stay out and watch. Bottom fishing now is like grabbing chestnuts from the fire; I patiently wait for this wave of leverage to clear before considering any layout.The talent business, which only turned positive after four years, surged over 21% on Friday, but I find the $RHI reversal price a bit crowded.
Q3 revenue was about $1.359 billion, adjusted year-over-year nearly flat.
EPS was 0.49 versus 0.43 last year, up about 14%, marking the first quarterly year-over-year positive growth since 2022.
Talent solutions adjusted revenue grew about +2%, also the first positive growth in four years, with permanent placement up about +6.2%.
Consulting segment Protiviti still declined about 2.9%, with gross margin rising from about 37.2% to about 39.1%.
Q4 guidance revenue is $1.285–1.385 billion, EPS 0.36–0.46, with adjusted revenue up about +3% and EPS about +30%.
It's warming up, but overall revenue hasn't truly expanded yet.
Closed Friday at 45.87, up about 21.7%, high around 47.14, low around 41.00, previous close was only 37.68.
Goldman Sachs still has a sell rating, raising the target price to 33, which is quite a gap from the current price.
I lean more towards "recruitment recovery just emerging," not "a 20% rise in one day confirms the reversal."
Let's first see if it holds around 41–42 on Monday; only after standing back near 47 can we say more; if the daily close breaks below about 41 and returns near 37.7, the narrative loosens.
Do you think this confirms a bottom after four years, or is it a one-time emotional peak?
$RHI
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Crypto Brief: Strength, Thresholds, and Cycles
$ZEC rose 3.3% in 24 hours to $1295.3, with a trading volume of about $1.07 billion. The increase in price and trading volume are aligned online, making it worthy of inclusion in the short-term watchlist. However, trading volume only indicates active turnover and does not equal new capital inflow; whether the strength can continue still requires further confirmation.
$LINK increased 0.5% to $12.29, showing a moderate trend. Its reserve mechanism converts corporate revenue and on-chain service income into LINK accumulation through payment abstraction, allowing customers to pay with other assets and convert in the backend. This lowers the usage threshold while retaining the token demand entry point; the actual impact depends on the amount and pace of conversion, and the list of partners does not equal purchase amounts.
$AAVE dropped 2.1% to $149.87, seemingly not following $ZEC’s rally, but it has still risen about 7.9% over the past 30 days. This looks more like pressure after a phase of increase rather than a long-term decline. To judge trading, first define the comparison period: short-term pressure, but monthly momentum remains. A drop does not mean cheap, and following the rally cannot be judged by just one day’s price change.
#特斯拉Q3汽车毛利率回升，自由现金流转正 Too fierce, yesterday $BTC spot ETF saw a single-day outflow of 635.6 million USD, wiping out nearly 60% of the cumulative net inflow of 1.03 billion USD over the previous three days.
The derivatives market gave a rare signal, suggesting everyone to reduce leverage and watch: the implied volatility of options is abnormally suppressed, indicating a new direction is about to emerge. And most likely it's bearish, as US media reports Israel plans to act against Iran again in early November.
Technically, RSI is 42.7, with MA7/MA20/MA30 all pressing overhead. MA20 is at 82,640, today's low is 80,514, leaving only strong support at 80,000. However, next week's direction will be determined by events, not technicals.
$ETH has drawn a lifeline on-chain: the realized price across the network is 2,311 USD, current price is 2,380, less than 3% away. Once it effectively breaks below, stop-loss orders will trigger in a chain reaction, next target is 2,200.
If this level holds, the first rebound resistance zone is from 2,415 to MA20 at 2,480.
$ZEC futures open interest shrank by 12.45% in one day to 2.37 billion USD. Technically: RSI 41.3, broke below the 50-day moving average at 1,193, today's low is 1,158. The 1,150-1,160 range was last week's launch platform; it has fallen enough to try small long positions.FnGuide latest consensus forecast: revenue about 98–99 trillion KRW, operating profit about 77 trillion KRW, operating profit margin about 78.4% (Q2 actual: revenue 79.3 trillion, operating profit 60.5 trillion, margin 76%)
Brokerage firms have significant divergence: the most optimistic Meritz projects operating profit of 80.1 trillion (assuming Q3 DRAM average price up 22% QoQ, shipments up 13%, margin around 80%); the more conservative DS Investment only 70.1 trillion, mainly deducting for KRW appreciation and HBM4 delayThe crypto market suddenly plunged collectively, and this time it’s probably not just a shakeout
📉 BTC fell below $82,000, with mainstream coins like ETH and SOL weakening simultaneously. Many are still debating whether this is a shakeout by major players, but I believe the more important factor in this downturn is the external funding environment.
On October 22, the Nasdaq index in the US stock market dropped 2.6%, and the crypto market immediately came under pressure. About $441 million in contracts were liquidated within 24 hours, with over 90% coming from long positions.
This indicates that leveraged liquidations are amplifying the decline, but it does not prove they are the initial cause of the drop.
⚠️ The real trouble lies in the macro environment.
Oil prices continue to rise, and US Treasury yields remain high. The market is beginning to worry that inflationary pressures will make it harder for the Federal Reserve to pivot to easing.
Risk assets that originally expected rate cuts and liquidity improvements are being repriced.
💰 I am now paying more attention to two signals: whether the US tech sector can stop falling, and whether there is sustained spot buying during BTC’s decline.
If external risk appetite does not recover, a rebound driven solely by short-covering in contracts is unlikely to go far.
This time, I’m not rushing to bottom-fish.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #Cryptocurrency #FederalReserve #MarketAnalysis#微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ 4. Comprehensive Judgment
Conclusion: The acceleration path for Microsoft's AI commercialization is already clear—Azure maintains high growth through capacity release, while Copilot and M365 realize profits through subscription upgrades. However, the market narrative about Microsoft has shifted from "how much growth AI can bring" to "whether the growth can be sustained and converted into profitability." The fiscal Q1 2027 earnings released after the market close on October 28 will be a key milestone to verify the quality of commercialization acceleration. 10.24 Morning Report: Liquidation data misled many people, with longs accounting for 98% in the last hour
Good morning, brothers, it's 8:20 on October 24.
Today's liquidation data is very interesting. Extending the timeframe to 24 hours, shorts liquidated 194 million, while longs "only" 84.72 million, which looks like shorts were bloodied.
But zooming in on the last hour: total network liquidations were 51.46 million, with longs accounting for 98%. ETH alone liquidated 13.85 million.
This indicates the market completed a "kill shorts first, then kill longs" switch in a very short cycle. The 24-hour cumulative data masks the slaughter happening in the last hour.
My ETH 100x long position was among those liquidated in this last hour — floating loss of -764%, with margin left at only 1.23U.
Below 2286 USD, there is a 676 million long liquidation wall waiting. Data doesn't lie, but which time dimension you look at determines whether you see the truth or an illusion.
Were you fooled by the 24-hour data, or killed by the market in the last hour?
$ETH $ZEC $CL
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
The stock price has significantly pulled back from its peak, and optimistic expectations have largely been priced in advance. The numbers this quarter themselves are not the focus; the key is the mass production progress of HBM4, the maintenance of its market share, and next year's capital expenditure/shipment guidance. The guidance is solidly supported; if delays are confirmed, it is easy to see a pullback after the positive news is realized. Simply put: the fundamentals remain strong, but short-term flexibility is limited, and the risk leans toward whether the upwardly revised expectations can be fulfilled.$CL funds are all liquid; chasing highs and selling lows is the nature of capital, but what drives this nature is the political landscape. Every movement of funds is a targeted political operation.
For example, on the eve of the U.S. midterm elections, the ruling party needs to win public support to secure parliamentary seats, while the opposition will definitely cause disruptions. The higher the oil price, the greater the pressure on the ruling party. However, the nature of capital is to chase gains and cut losses, so if there is money to be made, why not join the game?
Friday is always a good point for strategic play, but such games will have limited effect in the future. After all, tokenization of stocks means funds operate 24/7, but public officials need to rest, which is everyone's legal right and the political significance here.
Therefore, it is foreseeable that no matter what, oil prices will definitely fall after the midterms because whether ruling or opposition, once the dust settles, political goals must be achieved, or votes will be lost.
So, I remain bearish. I believe that fund flows cannot be reckless because every guided fund movement is a significant political act that requires rationality.Dogecoin holdings are nearly 100 million USD, but the price has only moved 2 points. This excitement feels a bit off, right? Who is really buying, and who is just borrowing a position in leverage? I was stunned when I saw this snapshot of holdings. $DOGE open contracts are about 97.56 million USD, with the price only up 2.28%; $WLD holdings are 39.07 million, up 1.10%; $RAVE holdings are only 1.25 million, yet it rose 4.73%. On the surface, all three assets are rising, but the underlying structures are completely different: one is a crowded derivatives battlefield with large capital, another is a light bounce in a small pool. What concerns me more is the mismatch between holdings and price increase. DOGE's contract volume leads by a large margin among the three, indicating its price fluctuations are heavily amplified by leverage, and any squeeze in either direction will be faster and more intense; whereas RAVE's million-level holdings with nearly 5% increase look more like short-term sentiment in a thin market, coming fast and going fast, not representing a return of overall sector risk appetite. WLD is in the middle, with moderate gains and medium holdings, seeming to be supported by spot holdings but with limited willingness to chase highs. The bullish path is: if DOGE holdings continue to accumulate, and the price can hold and rise with volume, it means leveraged funds are willing to take risks, the meme sector might attract attention again, and sentiment could spill over to the ETH ecosystem and altcoin short-term trades. But the risk is also here—high holdings with small gains often mean both longs and shorts are adding positions but no one wants to admit defeat first. Once the price breaks key levels, a chain of position reductions will amplify volatility.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ 1. Growth Aspect: AI-Driven Evident
Revenue and Profit: Google Cloud's quarterly revenue reached $24.77 billion, up 82% year-over-year; operating profit margin rose sharply from 20.7% in the same period last year to 35.6%, indicating that AI business not only brings revenue but also improves the profit structure.
AI Product Penetration: The Gemini model processes 22 billion API tokens per minute (a significant increase from 7 billion in Q3 2025), with Gemini applications reaching 950 million monthly active users; nearly 90% of Fortune 100 companies use Gemini Enterprise.
Search Base Stable: The market once worried that generative AI would impact search advertising, but search revenue still grew 17%, AI Mode monthly active users exceeded 1 billion, and short-term concerns about "AI killing search" have not materialized.
2. Return Aspect: High Capital Expenditure, Market Shifts to "Cash Flow Scrutiny"
Capital Expenditure Significantly Raised: Alphabet raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $195 billion–$205 billion, mainly for AI infrastructure and global computing power.
Market Focus Shift: Wall Street has shifted from "how much growth AI can bring" to "when will investments turn into profit and cash flow." Although Google Cloud is growing fast, capital expenditure, financing needs, and free cash flow pressure are rising simultaneously.
Institutional Optimistic Revaluation: JPMorgan has revalued Google Cloud 2027Three varieties, three ways to read
$HYPE reported at 78.54, down 3.8% in 24 hours. More importantly, look at the structure: HIP-3 market deployers are each responsible for contract specifications, oracle definitions, operations, and necessary settlements; not all markets are handled by the same team. The increase in varieties is progress, but whether the rules are clear and reliable determines sustained attractiveness. Looking at HYPE, first ask who operates the market and where the price comes from.
$AVAX reported at 9.210, down 5.8% in 24 hours; about -8.6% in the past 7 days, about -10.0% in the past 30 days. The weakness is not only in the recent window; the three intervals overlap and cannot be directly summed, but the consistent direction indicates pressure is broadly distributed. The short term has not gained obvious points from the long window; profit and loss are still calculated within their respective intervals.
$XRP reported at 1.3234, down 3.2% in 24 hours. According to OKX spot trading statistics in the past 24 hours, the weighted average price is about 1.36245, with the current price about 2.9% lower. This is the gap between the average trading position and the new pricing, which can measure the degree of weakness, but does not mean there must be sell orders stacked above 1.36245; the average transaction position is a statistical reference, while the real order book is another set of data.
Commonality among the three: price changes are just the entry point; rules, windows, and calibers are the key to understanding prices.
#存储芯片股再度下跌，AI投资回报担忧加剧 Why is BTC so resilient this time? The core reason is just one: chip structure.
At 60,000, too many people missed out, and hardly anyone bought in; the missed bull market came directly. Then it surged all the way to over 80,000, with a slight pullback to 75,000 in between. At 75,000, not many people got on board either, and then it went straight to 86,000.
A correction requires a large amount of sell orders. But where would so many sell orders come from? Most have missed out and basically hold no chips, so where is the selling pressure?
Now at the 80,000 level. Despite the recent sharp drops in the US stock market and so many negative factors: crude oil, interest rate hikes, midterm elections... BTC just doesn’t fall much.
This proves that most people in the market really don’t hold many chips, and now whenever it dips, they want to buy.
The common knowledge about chip structure is: once these negative factors pass, BTC’s main upward wave will come again.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
Pause is not dovish: 92.8% pricing hides a December knife
For the October 27-28 FOMC, the market prices a 92.8% chance of a rate hike pause, but inflation isn’t dead, initial jobless claims are 194,000, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is still hovering around 5%.
[Veteran’s ramble]
Don’t treat the pause as good news; this phrase has been overplayed. The real knife is in the wording—hawks hold steady, December rate hike expectations immediately rebound, Nasdaq kneels first, BTC follows with a dump. Money never sleeps, waiting for a direction. The 83,000 needle went up then softened; no volume followed on-chain, just a fake smile.
There are three variables: inflation expectations rising, employment too strong, long-end yields refusing to fall. Any one exceeding expectations turns the pause into tightening. Don’t get carried away by ETF inflows on crypto’s side; $1.075 billion isn’t enough to cover one liquidation.
In trading, don’t bet on a breakout, just watch Powell’s mouth at 02:30. Stocks watch semiconductors under pressure, tokens watch BTC’s 80,000 defense; don’t catch a falling knife. Until liquidity returns, all rebounds are borrowed.As soon as the US stock market opened, what came was not reinforcements but a bucket of cold water😵💫 BTC current price 81600, down over 2.6%. Looking at the 4-hour data first, the long-short ratio surged from 1.4 in the afternoon to 2.07 — the lower the price falls, the more bottom-fishers crowd in, making the chip structure even messier. This round of cleansing probably isn't over yet.
Next, ETH is currently priced at 2405, with the 4-hour long-short ratio soaring to 3.01, which is indeed extreme😳 The previous consolidation zone has been lost, and leveraged longs are still stubbornly holding on. If 2400 is broken down, a real liquidation might finally come.
Finally, SOL is at 104.8, also falling, with a 4-hour long-short ratio of 2.64. There are too many people on board, and the short-term stampede risk is considerable⚠️
Summary: The US stock market opened with a sharp drop, but longs are adding positions and holding firm. The market looks like a meat grinder; without thorough leverage washout, it's hard to say the bottom is in. Don't rush to bottom-fish; first, protect your principal💵I glanced at the market as soon as I opened my eyes this morning, and almost spilled my coffee on the keyboard. $BTC is hovering around 80,900, $ETH just above 2,370, and $SOL is grinding near 101. It's not a waterfall crash, but a dull knife cutting flesh, specifically targeting those who leveraged up over the weekend.
According to CoinGlass data, liquidations in the past hour reached 97.6 million, with long positions accounting for 90.22 million, or 92%. The 24-hour long liquidation ratio is over 71%. Weekend liquidity is naturally thin, so it doesn't take much capital to blow up a batch of longs; the main players know this time window very well.
But what really made me put my phone down and think for five minutes wasn't the liquidation numbers. It was the funding side of the table. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 635.6 million on Thursday alone, with BlackRock's IBIT pulling out 254 million, Fidelity's FBTC 217 million, marking the largest single-day outflow since June. The 1.07 billion that flowed in three days ago was mostly withdrawn in one day, turning October's overall ETF flow negative. On the CME side, the CFTC reported that as of the week ending October 20, large speculators' net long positions were 2,418 contracts, slightly down from 2,534 the previous week.
So the notion that "institutions are accumulating"—I have to pour cold water on that. Futures positions haven't increased, ETFs are bleeding, institutions aren't panic selling, but they're not eagerly catching the falling knife either. They're waiting. Waiting for a price more comfortable than 80,800.
The macro side is even more subtle. The Federal Reserve meeting on October 28 overwhelmingly favors no rate hike, with Polymarket pricing the chance of a hike at only about 12%. But the probability of a hike in December hovers around 83%, and last week's CPI and PPI were both hot. Housing data is terrible, giving the Fed a reason to "wait a bit," but inflation doesn't give them a reason to "ease up." This means that once a rebound starts, a December sword always hangs overhead. Crypto's sensitivity to interest rate expectations now far exceeds any single narrative.
This is also why I neither short nor bottom-fish. The direction is unclear at this point, but the level is clear. 80,000 is not a technical level; it's a psychological level, an options pain point, a place where everyone's stop-loss orders pile up. The main players won't pretend not to see it.
---
Plan unchanged, but logic revisited:
$ETH: Short on a rebound to 2,400, stop loss at 2,430, target 2,320. If it drops to 2,300, reverse to long, stop loss 2,275, target 2,380. $ETH ETFs have lost nearly 1.18 billion in October, so the selling pressure on rebounds is more real than $BTC.
$SOL: Key level at 100. Short on a rebound to 104–105, stop loss 106.5, target 100. Long at 100, stop loss 98.5, target 104.5. If it breaks 98.5, accept it and don't hold.
$BTC: Current price near 80,900, 81,000 is a short-term ceiling. Short on a rebound to 81,200–81,500, stop loss 82,000, target 80,000; if it breaks, look at 79,000. Long at 80,000, stop loss 79,600, target 81,200, split into two batches. If it recovers 82,000, cancel short plans; if it falls below 79,600, also withdraw longs. Discipline is more important than direction.
---
Finally, to be honest. Liquidation data tells you longs are hurting, ETF data tells you institutions aren't that brave, and Fed data tells you December still has a hurdle. These three things combined don't script an "imminent surge" nor a "total collapse." It's a grind. Grinding until weekend leveraged positions clear out, until orders get eaten, until someone can't resist chasing in and then gets swept out again.
I'm biased short but not betting that 80,000 will definitely break. I'm only betting on one thing: when my order level is reached, the market will react. If not, just wait.
Going to have breakfast now. Let the orders watch the market; they're more reliable than people ☕.
Do you think 80,000 will be touched today, or will the thin weekend liquidity bounce it back above 82,000? Drop your answer in the comments; we'll check after the close.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 #存储芯片股再度下跌，AI投资回报担忧加剧 Buyback approval is just the starting point; the supply rhythm is the key
$ENA 0.20352, the buyback milestone proposal for ENA has been approved, but the market response is lukewarm, with a 3.7% drop in the past 24 hours. Approval of rules, fulfillment of conditions, and actual purchases each carry weight and should not be conflated. When discussing buyback intensity, one should directly verify purchase records and applicable tiers, rather than repeatedly forwarding the same headline. The proposal links buybacks to USDe supply scale, and the order of fulfillment deserves ongoing tracking.
$BEAT 0.6857, down 6.5% in the past 24 hours, with a heavier decline. The official allocation includes a 40% community share, released monthly over 48 months, but this does not mean equal monthly sales. More importantly, it is worth questioning whether incentive distribution matches actual usage. Temporary news should not be forced to explain phased declines; the known supply rules are variables for assessing absorption capacity.
$LINK 12.08, a net decline of about 0.9% over the past 30 days, seemingly flat, but a 3.5% drop in the past 24 hours. The holding process cannot be summarized only by monthly endpoints. Small monthly net changes do not prove stability; different time windows answer different questions. Even as a slower infrastructure allocation, intermediate price fluctuations should not be omitted.
All three point to one thing: behind short-term volatility, the real test of sustained absorption capacity lies in rule fulfillment and supply rhythm.
#MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 October 23, 2026 (Friday close Eastern Time / Saturday Asia Time).
Entering the last week of the month (10/26–10/31), the conflict between macro and micro factors has reached its peak: crude oil (WTI/CL) broke through $103/barrel, forcibly pushing up the inflation sore spot; the US stock market (Nasdaq +0.11%) showed only a weak, low-volume slight stabilization after a 2.6% plunge the previous day; meanwhile, cryptocurrency (BTC) twice swept down to seize the key liquidation liquidity at $80,500 intraday before rebounding to around $81,000.
The overall market is in a typical phase of "liquidity freeze + extreme leverage washout."
BTC's "pin at $80,500" liquidity logic
Liquidity Sweep: With the Nasdaq's sharp drop and net outflows from spot ETFs, the long leverage positions in the BTC derivatives market were once again heavily targeted. After the price precisely pinned down to consume the dense stop-loss/liquidation buy orders at $80,500, it quickly rebounded to around $81,000 to begin a weak consolidation.
Deleveraging completed vs. contagion risk: The consecutive pins cleared high-leverage long positions in perpetual contracts. As long as BTC holds the $80,000 threshold, the spot buy support below remains effective; however, if the US stock market experiences a second indiscriminate sell-off next week, there is still a risk that institutions will liquidate crypto assets to meet margin calls (Ma), causing a linked further decline. $BTC If the AI bubble really bursts, will BTC catch the returning funds or shake along with it? Would you rather watch BTC's support now, or first see which stabilizes first between ETH and altcoins? Seeing the statement from the CEO of CryptoQuant, my first reaction wasn't "good news is coming," but rather what expectations the market is actually trading on. His core judgment is that BTC almost missed the entire AI rally; those who bought AI stocks may have already sold their BTC. Now if AI falls back, some funds might look back at BTC; but he also emphasized that the correlation between the two isn't that deep, so an AI crash isn't necessarily good or bad news for BTC. This perspective is quite interesting because it breaks down cross-market linkage into "position migration" rather than simple simultaneous rises or falls. Market signals are actually more honest than narratives. BTC is hovering near the 50-day moving average around 81,279, with 80,936 as the first support. If it breaks below 80k, 78,500 will be back on the table; a rebound needs to retake 83,760-84,300 to be considered a recovery. More noteworthy is the ETF fund rhythm: a few days ago, the spot ETF still had a net inflow of $1 billion, but yesterday's sharp drop saw a net outflow of $164 million. Institutional sentiment flips faster than turning a page, indicating short-term risk appetite was suppressed briefly. ETH is weaker still; ETH/BTC dropped to 0.0294, price is below the 50-day moving average at 2,554, MACD has a death cross with expanding negative bars, RSI at 51.4 is not oversold but not strong either. The weekly EMA200 at 2,153 remains a long-term level.Friday's market performance wasn't good, but it didn't crash either. The Dow was hit the hardest, while the S&P and Nasdaq had limited declines. The market mainly traded oil prices and geopolitical issues, rather than continuing to beat down AI. The Dow closed at 52,215 points, down 652 points, a decline of 1.23%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,623.68 points, down 0.52%. The Nasdaq closed at 25,955 points, down 0.21%. Over the week, the Dow still rose 0.4%, while the S&P and Nasdaq fell 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. The real driver of the day was oil. Brent crude rose more than 3%, closing near $116.72, hitting a multi-month high. There were continuous developments in the Middle East: Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the US deploying more troops there, and statements from Iran. The energy sector rose 2.51%, one of the few clear positive contributors. The tech sector rose slightly by 0.35%, with signs of stabilization in chips; Thursday's AI capital expenditure panic did not escalate further. Most other sectors were under pressure. Consumer staples and discretionary fell the most, down 1.83% and 1.39%, respectively. Financials also dragged the Dow down; American Express shares fell nearly 4% after announcing layoffs in preparation for AI. Telecom operators were hit due to rumors that SpaceX plans to massively deploy base stations for wireless service. The 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.99% again. The current market state is clear: AI is still present but no longer the sole trading theme. Funds are starting to focus on oil prices, inflation expectations, and next week's Federal Reserve meeting, with divergence more evident than panic. If oil prices continue to rise, the tone on interest rates will only get tougher. $BT $IRYS shorted at 0.1, and it kept rising to 0.409. It didn't liquidate, but this isn't something to be happy about.
Reviewing where I went wrong: 0.1 was not the starting point. It rose from 0.02 to 0.1, already a fivefold increase. I shorted at the fivefold mark with only one reason — it had risen too much.
"Risen too much" is never a valid reason to short. Especially in a market where only about 25% is circulating, the price depends solely on whether there are buyers, not on its intrinsic value. Thinking it will revert to the mean is actually betting that something without an anchor will turn back on its own.
What I should have reflected on more is: I didn’t understand what kind of market this was. I was focused on the price increase, ignoring the chip structure and who was pushing it. In this kind of market, I shouldn’t have taken such a position.
The fact it didn’t liquidate doesn’t mean my judgment was right; it means my position was small. The judgment was wrong, the cost just hasn’t come yet. 比特币卡在“生死线”，今晚这根K线决定下周方向 ETF流出6亿、巨鲸停手：这波反弹，是陷阱还是起跳？ 别被横盘骗了——BTC 现在最危险的不是跌，是“假稳” 很多人以为横盘=安全，但今天的比特币，恰恰最危险。 BTC 现在卡在 81,300 美元附近，24h 只在 81,084–82,060 之间晃，看起来风平浪静，链上和资金面却在悄悄变天 👇 ① 价格结构：上有盖、下有托 • 压力：82,300 → 85,000（ETF成本区上沿+通道上轨） • 支撑：80,000 整数关口（现货ETF平均成本区，破则看 78k） • 现在位置：卡在上升通道下沿，RSI 47 中性偏弱，没方向，但随时选边 ② 资金面：机构在撤，散户在冲 • 10/22 美国现货ETF净流出 6.35 亿美金，IBIT单日跑出2.54亿 • 24h 全网爆掉多头约 4–5 亿美金 • 多空比畸形：币安/OKX散户看多 2.1:1，但OKX大户持仓极度看多、人数却看空——典型“筹码集中、散户接刀” ③ 宏观压制没解除 • 美失业数据走强 → 降息预期后移 → 美债收益率、美元双高 • 油价站上110+，风险资产集体承Two worlds on the same options chain: Before the FOMC, smart money buys insurance on ETH while acting nonchalant on BTC
The FOMC on October 28 is just around the corner. The market consensus expects rates to remain unchanged, but the real risk lies ahead—recent CPI and PPI data have been hot, and any hawkish tone could ignite expectations for a December rate hike earlier than anticipated. At such a critical moment, the derivatives market should be full of "buying insurance" sentiment.
However, after reviewing the options chain, I found something off: insurance is almost entirely piled on $ETH, while $BTC looks like nothing is happening.
On the $ETH side: Put options dominate, with 2200 strike repeatedly bet on
The most actively traded $ETH contracts are dominated by puts. The October 26 expiry, 2200 strike put leads in volume with about 9,000 contracts. The overall $ETH options Put/Call Ratio ranges between 0.77 and 0.81, with the maximum pain point pinned at 2200.
This isn’t retail investors nervously buying a couple of lottery tickets. Big players are putting real money down to protect $ETH downside ahead of the FOMC. The 1-week 25Δ put is priced 7.4 vol points higher than comparable calls—willingness to pay this premium for downside protection indicates some believe ETH is more vulnerable to falling than rising during the "fragile window" around the rate decision.
On the $BTC side: Calls dominate, skew nearly flat
Among the most active $BTC contracts, calls outnumber puts. On Deribit, the overall $BTC Put/Call Ratio is between 0.66 and 0.70, with call options clearly outnumbering puts. The short-term 25Δ skew has returned to near balance, a stark contrast to mid-month when any market twitch triggered a rush to buy puts.
It’s not that $BTC lacks protection, but the urgency is far less than for $ETH. There is solid buy support around 81,000, and heavy sell walls between 85,000 and 87,500, with price grinding in between. The options market prices $BTC as range-bound, waiting for the FOMC to provide direction, but not expecting a crash anytime soon.
Why $ETH specifically? Options are just a thermometer; ETFs are the body temperature
If we stop at "$ETH is more fragile than $BTC," this post would be no different from AI-generated content.
What’s truly worth a deeper look is that the divergence in options is a result, not a cause.
Since October, US spot $ETH ETFs have seen net outflows of about $1.08 billion, the largest monthly outflow this year, nearly wiping out September’s inflows within a month. Meanwhile, $BTC ETFs, though not strong overall in October, still saw a single-day net inflow of $527 million, enough to offset outflows, with IBIT alone able to hold the line. The capital behavior on $BTC and $ETH is different: one is "fast in and fast out," the other is "steady retreat."
A deeper difference lies in the buying structure. $BTC has two legs: the ETF channel plus continuous absorption by corporate treasuries. Strategy alone holds about 848,000 $BTC and keeps buying weekly, forming a predictable structural buy. ETH’s marginal buying is highly concentrated—BitMine has been the main single force supporting the $ETH/$BTC rate since June 2025, and it has publicly stated it will stop buying once holdings reach 5% of circulating supply, with only about 100,000 $ETH left before that limit.
A buyer who knows where the end is, versus one who sees no stop signal—the options market clearly marks the difference in "confidence thickness."
Price doesn’t lie: $ETH gasping around 2370–2380, $BTC hovering above 81,000
$ETH currently trades around 2370–2380, having lost 2400. Short- and mid-term moving averages all press down from above, RSI hovers near 37 brushing oversold territory, but MACD has yet to confirm any reversal. The 2330–2350 zone is critical now—supports at 2364 and 2332 overlap; losing this is not a "pullback" but a breach of defense. On the upside, unless 2438–2450 is reclaimed, all rebounds are just escape attempts.
$BTC is supported at 81,000, with 84,500–85,000 acting as a repeatedly impenetrable ceiling. Until 85,000 is firmly taken, even lively call option activity is not a trend signal, just noise at the upper range.
My judgment is straightforward:
Don’t bet on a reversal in $ETH before the FOMC. The 2200 puts are so heavily staked not because the market is "manufacturing panic," but because someone is pricing in the world after a breakdown. $ETH’s fragility is not drawn from technical charts but confirmed by ETF capital voting with their feet and options whales paying premiums.
Don’t read $BTC’s call skew as a reversal signal either. Without holding 85,000, all bullishness is just a breeze within a range.
Two key levels to control your actions:
$ETH: If 2330–2350 breaks, don’t catch the fall, don’t hold, don’t tell yourself stories;
Until $ETH reclaims above 2455, any talk of a "bull comeback" should be treated as noise.
$BTC: As long as 81,000 holds, the range grind continues; without 85,000 holding, even many call options are just wall decorations.
The market has written its secrets on the options chain. Whether you understand them is up to you.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 #存储芯片股再度下跌，AI投资回报担忧加剧 #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
The October Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is approaching, and the market unanimously expects a pause in rate hikes this time. CME data shows over a 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged, but this pause does not mark the end of the rate hike cycle. The market still harbors multiple uncertainties that directly impact U.S. stocks, technology, and risk asset trends.
Currently, the Fed's core stance is to wait and observe. The lagging effects of previous rounds of rate hikes have not fully manifested yet. Coupled with divergent U.S. inflation and employment data, the Fed chooses to temporarily halt tightening monetary policy to reserve time to monitor subsequent economic trends. The market generally postpones potential rate hike expectations to December.
The biggest uncertainties in this meeting come from three core risks. First, geopolitical risks push up energy inflation. Fluctuations in the Middle East situation drive oil prices higher, potentially causing inflation to rebound and forcing the Fed to release hawkish signals. Second, the continuous rise in U.S. Treasury yields passively tightens financial conditions, partially substituting for rate hikes, making the Fed's policy decisions more cautious. Lastly, the U.S. economy's resilience exceeds expectations, with strong consumer and AI industry capital expenditures, strengthening the economy's ability to withstand pressure and leaving room for future rate hikes.
Key signals to watch going forward include: the policy wording in the meeting statement, the Fed's guidance on the December rate trajectory, and the official stance on inflation and U.S. Treasury yields.
Overall, if the Fed signals dovishness, growth stocks and the technology sector are expected to recover; if the tone is hawkish, risk assets will continue to experience volatile adjustments.
$SNDK $XAU #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ A brief upfront conclusion (not investment advice): HBM4 is a "plus factor, not a main contributor" in Q3, making it difficult for HBM4 alone to significantly exceed profit expectations for Q3; the real support for this quarter's profit comes from HBM3E+ server DDR5 and eSSD; the profit realization of HBM4 mainly falls in Q4 and next year. #Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? First, look at the volume: On 10-23 during the day, there were fourteen 1H bars totaling 76 contracts, with the largest single bar at 15 contracts, and three bars at 0.
At 21:00 when the US stock market opened, a single bar with 89 contracts pushed the price down to 310.43 then pulled back to 316.15 — the lowest point of the day and the only bar with significant money involved. Afterwards, it steadily rose; at 03:00, 35 contracts pushed it to 325.53, and at 04:00, 22 contracts touched 327.02.
Then starting at 05:00, volumes were 7, 9, 9, and 0. The current price of 325.77 is a line drawn with no trades in the last four hours.
So don’t treat it as a price; it’s just an archive of the last transaction price. The real pricing will wait until tonight at 21:30.
MA20 is at 319.32, the current price is 6.5 points above it, the bullish structure is intact, but in a vacuum, no pattern counts.
If tonight’s open closes above 327.02 with volume ≥60 contracts, pull back to 325.5~326.5 to go long, stop loss at 323.50, first target 331.50 with a risk-reward ratio of 2.2.
If the 1H bar closes below 323.72 with volume ≥25 contracts, rebound to 324.5~325.2 to go short, stop loss at 326.30, target 319.32 with a risk-reward ratio of 3.7.
No action before the open.
$SNOW
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)(October 24):
Bitcoin's technical outlook weakened today: price around $80,990, closing below the 50-day SMA (about $81,781) for the first time since August; the 0.618 retracement level at $82,614 has turned into resistance. The Bollinger Bands have compressed to about $6,000, the narrowest in nearly two and a half years, with a downward bias in direction probability. The largest liquidation pools above are between $82,500–$82,650, and below concentrated at $80,850 and $80,000; the funding rate remains positive (0.0068%), longs have not yet turned bearish. Funding conditions are bearish: from October 19–21, ETF net inflows were about $1.07 billion, but on the 22nd, a single-day net outflow of $635.6 million occurred, the largest since June, indicating weakening inflow sustainability. Macro pressure remains unresolved: high oil prices suppress risk appetite; the FOMC (October 27–28) is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, with the probability of an October rate hike priced down to 18%–22%. Key levels: below $80,700–$81,000, a daily break targets $77,876; $80,000 is the mid-term watershed. On the upside, first watch $81,781, then $82,500–$82,650; only above $84,000 would structural reversal be considered. #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ It should be right $ETH staking hits a new high, so why is the price still "flat"? 🤔
Ethereum staking volume has set a new record, seemingly locking up circulating supply and shrinking availability, yet the coin price still lags behind BTC. 📉 The key misconception is: staking only represents existing holders choosing to lock their assets long-term; it does not automatically bring in new buying demand. Without incremental funds, relying solely on "less selling" makes it hard to push prices up.
More realistic pressure comes from the capital side: Ethereum ETFs continue to see net outflows, with weak institutional allocation willingness; BTC occasionally still has funds supporting its bottom, widening the gap. 💸 Meanwhile, when the Nasdaq weakens, tech risk assets come under pressure, ETH volatility increases, and capital becomes more cautious.
Additionally, ETH is strongly correlated with altcoin sectors. Altcoins lack heat, on-chain activity is low, Layer 2 solutions have not significantly driven Gas consumption, and there is a lack of new narratives. When BTC pulls back slightly, ETH often falls more sharply. ⚠️
Therefore, staking mainly helps ease selling pressure and prevents disorderly declines; it is not an engine for price increases. To see a trend reversal, at minimum, we need to observe whether ETF outflows stop and whether altcoin sentiment warms up. With the rate decision window approaching and macro uncertainties high, ETH can spike quickly, so leverage positions must be strictly controlled—don’t bet on a rebound based solely on on-chain positives. 🚫🎯#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #存储芯片股再度下跌，AI投资回报担忧加剧 Last night at 22:00, there was a volume of 21.03 million contracts, compared to only 3.59 million in the previous hour. The price plunged from 4031.5 straight down to 3986.8, closing at 4009.4, with a lower shadow of 22.6 points — this was the 24-hour low and the only volume exceeding 20 million.
After the plunge, the price hovered sideways between 4002 and 4015.5 for eight hours. At 06:00, another volume spike of 2.64 million contracts hit 3990.2 and closed at 3995.6, not breaking the previous low, which was 3.4 points higher than 3986.8. At 07:00, it rebounded to 4002.4.
The low point was lifted, but the high point has been stuck below 4015.5. Both rebounds were capped below the MA20 at 4016.6, with none closing above it.
The current price is 4001.2, right between these two lines — the double bottom is just short of a breakout, so don’t enter early.
If the 1H candle closes with volume above 4015.5 (volume ≥ 2 million contracts), the neckline is considered broken. Then, buy on a pullback to 4010~4013, with a stop loss at 4003.5, first target at 4031.5 with odds of 2.7, and extension to 4042.
If the 1H candle closes with volume breaking below 3986.8 (volume ≥ 8 million contracts), the false breakout is confirmed. Then, short on a rebound to 3993~3997, with a stop loss at 4005, target at 3960 with odds of 3.5.
No trades in the middle range.
$XAU
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)HYPE perpetual contract fees are at the maximum rate, and the price hit a new weekly low this morning.
Let's look at three numbers first.
For OKX's HYPE perpetual contract, starting from 8 AM on 10/23, every settlement period is at the maximum rate, +1.00bp is its cap. Each period lasts eight hours, which annualizes to roughly 10%.
For the same period, BTC is +1bp with a cap of 37.5bp; ETH is +0.19bp with a cap of 7.5bp. Among these three, only HYPE is maxed out.
Price: Monday closed at 81.44, Friday closed at 78.41, and this morning it hit a low of 76.16.
Open interest: dropped from 111 million on Monday to 106 million on Friday, then increased back to 109 million today.
At first, I thought the bulls were accumulating, but after seeing the fee curve, I changed my mind. On 10/22 during the day, the fee was still negative, meaning shorts were paying; in two days it flipped to the maximum rate. Turnover does not equal a change in direction.
Maxed fees do not indicate direction.
To put it plainly, this is a cost announcement. With an annualized holding cost of 10%, if the price doesn't rise, these positions are bleeding every day. How long it can hold, I can't say, so I don't short; but it also signals a potential blow-up point.
How to trade: If it stands back above 78.91 and the fee returns near 0, someone is really supporting it, and I'll admit I was wrong. If it breaks below 76.07, the maxed-out longs start to blow up, don't reach in. Valid until midnight Sunday.
Are you seeing bulls adding positions or shorts retreating?
$HYPE $BTC $ETH
#TradingVoices: Your experience deserves to be heard #HYPEFeeMaxed$BTC Crypto Morning Report｜10.24: Bulls Were Washed Out Overnight, But Someone Is Dancing on the Ruins
Last night’s move left those watching the charts silent. $BTC was kicked down from 84,800, breaking through 81,000 like paper, hitting a low near 80,900, currently at 80,990. The 24-hour drop isn’t extreme, but the intraday shakeout was painful. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 14, indicating extreme fear, with stop-loss orders cascading down, bulls completely flushed out.
Market Overview: BTC Bleeding, Altcoins Diverging
This drop in BTC isn’t just a simple technical breakdown. From 84,800 to 80,900 is nearly a 4% retracement, with leveraged long positions liquidated by at least 440 million, of which 397 million were longs. What does this mean? It means this decline wasn’t retail selling but systematic liquidation of leveraged positions. The 80,000 to 86,000 range has been consolidated for a while; last night tested the lower boundary again but didn’t close below it, indicating hands are still buying around 80,000.
Altcoins are more telling. They fell harder than BTC but during the rebound, money didn’t return to BTC; it flowed into $PEPE. $PEPE surged 8.9% in 24 hours, at one point spiking 15%, running an independent rally while $BTC hovered around 81,700. This isn’t a “return of alt season,” it’s liquidity finding an outlet in a very narrow gap—big money is cautious, so hot money chases short-term gains in meme coins. Don’t mistake $PEPE’s rebound as a sector reversal signal; it’s more like a lottery ticket in a fearful market—someone won, but that doesn’t mean the lottery is booming.
News: ETF "Betrayal" More Worth Watching Than Price
On the 22nd, $BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 635.6 million, the largest single-day outflow since June. Breaking it down is even more interesting: BlackRock IBIT withdrew 254 million, Fidelity FBTC 217.5 million, ARK 109.4 million. This isn’t retail ETF redemptions; it’s institutions actively reducing exposure. More importantly, this outflow wiped out nearly 60% of the roughly 1.07 billion net inflow over the previous three days, turning October from net inflow to net outflow. $ETH ETFs also saw an outflow of 110.6 million the same day. ETF money isn’t "temporary hedging"; it’s voting with their feet, signaling institutions themselves are reluctant to hold at this level.
The macro transmission chain is clear. The Nasdaq fell 2.6% in one day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 6.72%, SK Hynix, SanDisk, AMD dropped over 8%, Meta nearly 7%, Nvidia over 4%. AI trading is retreating, tech stock valuations are being re-examined, risk sentiment is spilling over layer by layer, and crypto, as the tail end of the risk curve, is inevitably getting hit. The SK Hynix earnings you mentioned, viewed in this context, show the market isn’t asking if it’s "good or bad," but whether it’s "good enough to revive the AI narrative," which is very challenging.
Federal Reserve: Not "Directionless," But Hawkish
Your original text said, "There probably won’t be a strong direction before next week’s Fed meeting," but that needs correction. The market pricing now isn’t "directionless," it has priced in no change and is even shifting toward a rate hike. The probability of holding rates steady in October is 83.9%, with a 16.1% chance of a 25 basis point hike; by December, the chance of a 25 basis point hike has surged to 76%. In other words, rate cut expectations have basically been removed from the table. If the Fed just "holds" next week, that’s expected, not bullish; if the statement includes hawkish language on inflation, risk assets will shake again. Don’t treat "no change" as a safety net; the real safety net now is position sizing, not forecasts.
In Summary
Breaking 81,000 and then bouncing back doesn’t mean the washout is over. ETFs are seeing outflows, AI is cooling off, the Fed’s hand remains firm, and $PEPE’s rebound is hot money seeking fun amid fear, not a trend reversal. At this level, staying alive is more important than being right. Wait for next week’s Fed decision and repeated tests of the 80,000 level before discussing direction.
$BTC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 #AI需求升温，三星SK海力士库存不足10天 Oil prices surge, will on-chain US stock tokens kneel first in respect?
On October 24, US stocks closed lower, Dow down 1.24%, Nasdaq down 0.21%, S&P down 0.52%, with oil and gas soaring while tech, consumer, and aviation sectors all fell.
[Veteran's rambling]
The oil price rise is not a sign of a strong market, but a ghost of inflation entering again. Brent crude surged to 116, 10Y US Treasury yield hit 4.995%, long-term money is withdrawing first, tech stocks are being devalued without negotiation. On-chain is even harsher; stock tokens are priced 24/7, with volatility 1.5 times higher than US stocks, and liquidity as thin as paper. When SPYx and NVDAx open over the weekend, panic will be amplified and priced again.
Storage is another story. SK Hynix rose over 4%, Micron over 2%, HBM shortage is a hard fact, don’t mix it with energy. Oil is macro expectation, chips are industry prosperity—two different things.
True insiders see the mismatch: traditional markets close, but on-chain keeps running. Small positions for weekend price discovery are fine, but using the broker mentality of "hold on and you’ll break even" on tokenized stocks risks being eaten by thin order books. Energy tokens have no spot anchor; they speculate on expectations, not dividends.
On-chain never sleeps.
Panic is actually more expensive over the weekend.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ My view is: The boost to profitability from HBM4 is no longer a question of "if" in the data, but a fact repeatedly confirmed by financial reports. What is more worth noting is that its role is undergoing a subtle change—from being the "sole engine" driving profits to becoming "one of the pillars" in a high-profit structure.
📊 Financial data has already provided the answer
SK Hynix's Q1 2026 financial report largely ends the question posed in this headline. Operating profit for the quarter reached 37.61 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 405%; net profit was 40.35 trillion KRW, nearly quadrupling year-on-year, with a net profit margin as high as 77%, even surpassing Nvidia's gross margin for the same period.
HBM4's contribution is concrete: HBM accounts for about 14% of total DRAM shipments but contributes over 40% of DRAM revenue. This "small lever moving big" effect is the core source of the profit surge.
📈 Volume and price logic: HBM4's "expensiveness" is structural
HBM4's pricing itself carries strong profit attributes. Its unit price is about $700, 20% to 30% higher than the previous generation HBM3E, and nearly 30% higher than the early batches priced around $550 in August 2025. After negotiations with Nvidia, HBM4's price increase once exceeded 50%.
A more dynamic balance is needed, rather than putting all chips on HBM4. #Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? $BTC touched 83,000 and was immediately pushed back, burying 100,000 people overnight. The 80,000 line is really shaky now.
Last night's move sent chills down the spine. $BTC surged to 84,778, just a breath away from 85,000, then was slammed back down, bottoming at 80,989. This is not something that can be brushed off as a "normal correction." In the past 24 hours, 103,000 people were liquidated, $458 million evaporated, with bulls losing $417 million—over 90% of which were long positions. Binance alone accounted for 43.5% of the liquidations. Liquidations themselves don't cause the price to drop, but they turn a decline into a stampede: price falls → long margin insufficient → exchange liquidates → market orders push price further down → more liquidations. Once this spiral starts, retail bottom-fishing funds simply can't catch the fall.
ETF data is even more painful. On October 22, the US spot $BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $635 million, the harshest single-day outflow since June 25, abruptly ending the prior three-day cumulative inflow of $1.08 billion. But note a detail: on October 21, the ETF still absorbed $528 million against the trend, with BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC both buying. The switch from heavy inflows to heavy outflows in one day shows institutions are fighting among themselves, not a coordinated retreat, but the largest marginal buy has indeed temporarily let go.
The macro side offers no respite either. US Treasury yields are rising, Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude to $112 per barrel, inflation expectations are rising again, and risk assets are collectively getting hit—the Nasdaq fell 2.6% that day, and China's CSI 300 has already entered a technical bear market. $BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq is absurdly high now; it’s no longer the "safe-haven digital gold" narrative, but a high-beta risk asset that moves three times as much when US stocks twitch.
Technically, the picture is even clearer. The 80,000–81,000 range is not an arbitrary line; it coincides with the daily ascending channel midline, a 4-hour demand zone, and a defensive band tested multiple times since October. The daily RSI is around 47, and the 4-hour RSI has dropped to about 44, showing bearish momentum has released quite a bit but is still far from "oversold." If the daily candle closes below 80,000, the next substantial support lies in the 75,000–78,000 order block that started rising in September; only if 80,000 holds can we talk about a rebound to the 84,000–86,000 supply zone.
So today's drop isn't caused by any single negative factor. Macro is draining liquidity, leverage is self-destructing, and ETF marginal buying is hesitating—all three collided on the same night. Liquidation data is the effect, not the cause, but it amplifies the drop from "uncomfortable" to "painful."
What to watch next isn't the calls to bottom-fish in the group, but the FOMC statements on October 27–28. Until the Fed clarifies the interest rate path, every rebound above 80,000 should be treated as a recovery, not a reversal.
$BTC $ETH $IRYS #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 The $ETH options market is quietly telling you a secret: before the FOMC, smart money is only insuring ETH, not $BTC.
First, look at two sets of derivatives data:
On the $BTC side, the bullish sentiment is steady:
• Among the 6 most active options contracts, 5 are calls, with the $98,000 call expiring on 11-27 being the hottest in trading volume
• The 1-week options put skew dropped from 14% mid-month to 4%, showing a clear easing of downside concerns
On the $ETH side, it’s all defense:
• Put options dominate the top two in trading volume, with about 9,000 contracts of the $2,200 put expiring on 10-26, ranking first in volume
• The 1-week 25Δ put is 7.4 vol points more expensive than similar calls (Coinbase Markets data)
Judgment: This is not bearish on $ETH, but rather large holders hedging before the FOMC on 10-27/28. What’s intriguing is that the hedging is concentrated only on $ETH, not on $BTC.
Interpretation: The market thinks $ETH is more fragile than $BTC. Current price $ETH 2377 is struggling below 2400, while $BTC at 81,000 can still hold; the options market is reflecting this price gap.
Levels:
Don’t bet on an $ETH reversal before the FOMC; there are already orders placed below 2200 (put clustering indicates pricing).
Technicians watch two numbers: if support at 2330-2350 breaks, exit; only above 2455 can trend be discussed.
The hot $BTC call options don’t mean a reversal is confirmed—until 85,000 holds, this is still a range-bound top.Mentality has completely collapsed, brothers.
BTC just stabbed down to 80456, just a thin layer away from 80,000. The one-hour moving average is pressing down hard, not even giving the bears a chance to catch their breath.
But honestly, the most dangerous thing right now isn’t the price, it’s the sentiment.
This wave of selling isn’t just about the crypto world itself. Meta’s earnings exceeded expectations, but AI capital expenditures drained free cash flow into the red. Chip stocks and storage sectors crashed first, the Nasdaq plunged, and as risk appetite contracted, BTC was directly treated like an ATM. The ETF side showed no mercy either—on October 22, there was a net outflow of 635.6 million in a single day, with BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC as the main outflow drivers. The 1.07 billion that flowed in over the previous three days was mostly given back in one day. With macro and capital both pulling the ladder away, the market can’t look good.
But the 80,000 level isn’t drawn arbitrarily.
Glassnode’s data is clear: the overall cost basis of US spot ETFs and the companies that put $BTC on their balance sheets is around 80,000 to 80,200. On October 15, it dipped to 80,100 but was pulled back within an hour. 81,200–81,500 is the near-term support, 80,700–81,000 is a stronger defense zone, and 80,000–80,500 is where the real tug-of-war between bulls and bears happens this round. If it breaks below, then 79,000 or even lower is the next level; if it holds, this is the institutional cost line supporting the bottom, not just hype from trading calls.
Regarding the FOMC, the probability of no rate hike on October 28 remains the overwhelming majority, with CME pricing the chance of a hike at only about 10–17%. The interest rate expectation itself isn’t new bearish news; what’s really weighing on the market are long-term yields and inflation worries pushed up by oil prices. The panic is about the "what if," not the "already happened."
So what you should do now isn’t curse the candlesticks, but calculate your position size and liquidation price clearly.
Chasing shorts near 80,000 is no longer favorable; if you want to bottom-fish, wait for a long lower shadow with volume between 80,700–81,000 before moving, and if it breaks below 80,500, accept it and don’t hold on. Surviving this level is a hundred times more important than betting on direction.
The bottom isn’t guessed, it’s revealed by the structure. Whether 80,000 holds or not, we’ll see next week.
Do you still have positions now? How far is your liquidation price from 80,000? Report your numbers in the comments, let’s watch this key level together.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 #存储芯片股再度下跌，AI投资回报担忧加剧 $BTC / $ETH / $SOL · October 24 Liquidation Pain Points Review
The market is so quiet it feels a bit off.
$BTC 81329, $ETH 2398, $SOL 103.73. These three lines are here, and the distance between the liquidation pain points above and below is all squeezed within 1.5%—it's not that a direction is about to break out, but that leverage is trapped in a very narrow meat grinder zone; whoever moves first will fuel the other side.
First, look at $BTC. The short pain point is 82175.9, +1.04%, with $46.06 million U of short liquidations pressing from above; the long pain point is 80543.5, -0.97%, with $41.45 million U of long liquidations hanging below. The volumes on both sides are similar, but there is a detail in the structure worth watching: the retail long-short account ratio is 3.03, biased long; the large account long-short ratio is 21% to 79%, with shorts dominating. This means if it spikes up to 82175, the main liquidations will be retail shorts and small short positions chasing the move, not the large holders' base positions. More troublingly, around 85210 there is $2.167 billion U of short liquidations, like a pile of dry kindling soaked in oil. But even if the kindling is piled up, whether anyone dares to light it is another matter. Volume increased by 19%, but open interest actually dropped by 2.46%, more like position closing and turnover rather than new shorts entering or adding. Short crowding is accumulating, but whether the fuel ignites does not depend on the liquidation chart alone.
$ETH’s problem is more specific and painful than $BTC’s. Current price 2398.45, upper short pain point 2434.34, +1.50%, with $21.04 million U of short liquidations hanging there; lower long pain point 2376.29, -0.92%, with $12.46 million U of long liquidations right underfoot. On-chain there is already a live example: an address shorted 13,830 $ETH at 2366 last night; this morning it rebounded to 2409, forcing liquidation of 2,765 $ETH, with the remaining 11,061 long liquidation price at 2419, only $9 away from the current price. Nine dollars on $ETH is like a needle’s point. But looking up, the 2450–2550 range is densely packed with short fuel. The problem is that October $ETH spot ETF net outflows have reached $1.08 billion, the largest monthly outflow this year. Capital is flowing out while liquidation pressure pulls up; $ETH is caught in the middle, so a move in either direction is not surprising.
$SOL looks the most "well-behaved" at 103.73, short pain point 105.31 just +1.52%, with $2.66 million U of short liquidations; long pain point 102.97, -0.74%, with $2.97 million U of long liquidations. The volume is smallest, but the fundamentals are the strongest among the three chains: Firedancer client validators have reached 207, validators voted to cut 18.9 million $SOL of future issuance, tokenized asset scale climbed to $4.23 billion, 30-day DEX volume is 58 billion, ranking first on the entire network. $SOL’s $103 level is not random; there is real support underneath. But its problem is here too: if the market doesn’t move, $SOL itself is hard to ignite alone. ETF capital outflows are sporadic, no combined force formed. $SOL’s current role is follower, not breaker.
What really makes this set of liquidation data dangerous are two things beyond the market.
First, the Federal Reserve on October 28. The market has priced in an 87% chance of holding rates steady; a pause is almost consensus. But consensus itself is a risk. Inflation hasn’t dropped, and rate cut expectations have been squeezed close to zero. If the FOMC statement after the meeting even hints at hawkishness, expectations for a December rate hike will be pulled forward, putting risk assets under collective pressure. $BTC’s current "resilience" is based on the assumption "nothing will happen this time," and that assumption’s margin for error is not as wide as imagined.
Second, AI credit pressure is seeping into crypto. CoreWeave’s bond yields have surged to 15%, and pressure has spread from a single target to the neocloud infrastructure sector, dragging tech stocks and crypto assets down together, with capital flowing into long-term US Treasuries. Bitcoin and AI stocks now share the same marginal buyers and exit channels; if AI continues to crack, crypto will find it hard to stay unscathed. This is not correlation, it’s transmission.
So back to the liquidation data itself: $BTC has the largest liquidation funds on both sides among the three chains; it is the barometer in this narrow meat grinder; $ETH is pulled both ways by ETF outflows and upper short fuel, so either direction has logic; $SOL has fundamental support but needs $BTC to give direction first.
The tighter the range, the higher the chance of a spike. The lines at 82175 and 80543, if either side is quickly broken, will trigger forced liquidations, then it depends on whether volume can hold. If it can’t, it’s a pulse; if it holds, then direction can be discussed.
The worst thing now is to mistake "liquidation pain points are close" for "direction is coming immediately." Close pain points only mean that once it moves, it will be fast; but which way it moves first is decided by macro and capital flow, not the liquidation chart.
Watch the quality of support at the $80,000 level for $BTC, watch whether the Fed will close the door on rate hikes on October 28. The fuel is piled up, but the fuse is in someone else’s hands.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 #存储芯片股再度下跌，AI投资回报担忧加剧 Wallet signature is the moment you agree to a transfer, relying on a mathematical problem. When quantum computers really run, some problems will be solved, so the cryptography community has long been preparing backup plans. Sui announced in August that it will integrate two standardized post-quantum signatures: one for native accounts, planned to launch on the mainnet in Q1 2027; another based on hash algorithms, embedded in smart contracts to protect high-value vaults, targeting mainnet in 2026. Two approaches are taken, not relying on a single solution. At this stage, users don't need to do anything; on-chain data is permanently public, and early preparation is always better than remedial measures later. $SUIOil prices exploded, tech cooled down, are on-chain US stock tokens the first to fall out of respect?
On October 24, US stocks closed lower, with the Dow down 1.24%, the Nasdaq down 0.21%, and the S&P down 0.52%. Oil and gas stocks surged, while tech, consumer, and airline stocks all fell.
[Veteran's rambling]
Don't be fooled by the index dropping only a few tenths; the market has already cracked. Rising oil prices are not a positive sign; they signal inflation coming back to life. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.999%, leading tech stocks to first cut valuations. On the chain side, stock tokens follow traditional market trends. SPYx and NVDAx prices over the weekend rely on perpetual market pricing with thin liquidity, making their direction even more extreme than Wall Street. Energy tokens lack spot price anchors; if capital really wants to move, it first speculates on expectations before waiting for redemptions. Storage chip SK Hynix rising 4% reflects hard demand; the HBM shortage logic remains intact, so don't lump it together with energy.
The real opportunity lies in the mismatch: rising oil suppresses risk assets, causing BTC and stock tokens to fall together in the short term, but tokenized stock market cap is only around $3 billion, with volatility amplified 1.5 times. Retail investors holding small positions are doing weekend price discovery; don't use a broker mentality to leverage.
Oil is just the surface; liquidity repricing is the real blade.
On-chain data doesn't lie; overnight markets have already priced in the panic.#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹
$20.9 billion unrealized gains! Saylor's next move might be even more worth watching than buying BTC
While most are still focused on Bitcoin's price swings, Strategy has already started another capital game.
As of October 4, Strategy holds about 848,000 BTC, with an expected $20.91 billion fair value gain in digital assets for Q3. But another set of numbers is even more intriguing: the company repurchased about $176 million in STRC preferred shares during the same period, and on October 19, it raised the preferred share repurchase authorization to $3 billion.
After the U.S. market close on October 29, the Q3 earnings report will be revealed. Is this a signal to keep accumulating coins, or a warning that the financing machine needs urgent repair?
Unrealized gains do not equal cash flow, and the size of coin holdings does not equal per-share value growth. What truly determines whether this model can continue are financing costs, preferred stock dividend pressures, common stock dilution, and whether each financing round can actually bring more BTC per share.
If you were Saylor: would you continue to increase your BTC position, or first fix the financing structure?
Bull markets test profits; bear markets test faith. The pot is smoking! The semiconductor sector's big pot is directly dry-burning down 6.72%, and the entire Nasdaq stove top collapsed 2.6% along with it. Storage chips like Micron and SanDisk, which are good ingredients, were like a ladle of ice water poured into hot oil, instantly sizzling and popping.
What do I fear most when cooking? It's not expensive ingredients, but losing control of the heat. AI data centers keep adding fuel to the stove; the three master chefs Meta, Microsoft, and Google are desperately pouring computing power budgets into this broth. The soup is getting thicker and richer, but customers still haven't come back to order. The seasoning of returns hasn't been added yet—the diners in the front hall are starting to doubt whether the kitchen's books are messed up.
Western Digital's dish has fresh ingredients and skilled knife work, with both performance and guidance exceeding expectations. Logically, it should be applauded. But what happened? It still got canceled after hours. No matter how beautiful the plating is, it can't withstand the shift in the whole street's atmosphere—the front hall refuses to acknowledge it, and the kitchen can only stare helplessly.
Now comes the real tasting session: SK Hynix and SanDisk's earnings reports are about to be served. Storage prices are the saltiness, orders are the heat, and profitability is the reduction—if any one of these three falters, the whole dish is ruined and must be remade.
A word of truth to fellow kitchen colleagues: the main course hasn't even settled yet, so don't rush to sprinkle that counterfeit coin seasoning into the pot, and don't touch the extra spicy chili. Today's spiciness isn't just to enhance flavor; it can directly burn through your stomach and intestines. Leverage is like seasoning—a small pinch is flavoring, but pouring a whole bowl ruins the entire pot, and even the pot has to be thrown away.
My cooking station has only one iron rule—when the heat is out of control, even the finest ingredients become waste. #MemoryChipStocksFall BTC is weakly fluctuating near $81,000 today, with insufficient rebound momentum. On October 24 intraday, around $81,300, 24-hour range $81,100–$82,054, down about 0.3% for the day, down 1.1% in the past 7 days.
Technical: After previously hitting $84,778 and then retreating, $81,000 is a key short-term support, with the next support at the $80,000 round number; resistance above is $84,000–$85,000. Until recovery, the trend remains weak and oscillating.
Capital: On October 22, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $635 million, the largest single-day outflow since June 25, turning October's cumulative net flow to an outflow of about $175 million; meanwhile, about $406 million worth of positions were liquidated in 24 hours, mostly longs.
Macro: Brent crude oil surpassed $100, and concerns over AI spending suppress risk appetite. The FOMC meeting on October 27–28 is the biggest variable, with the market consensus expecting rates to remain unchanged.
Conclusion: Prioritize controlling leverage before the event window. Consider reducing positions if $81,000 is broken; only discuss strengthening if $84,000 is held. Single-day ETF flows are for observation only; continuous inflows are meaningful. #Oil prices have surged sharply these past two days, with WTI intraday hitting 102, and the screen is flooded again with the linear script "war = oil rise = inflation."
A quick reminder: don't rush to copy that.
On the same day, the exact words from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen were: Oil exports from the Persian Gulf are strongly rebounding, already exceeding pre-conflict levels, and Iran's threat has not truly cut off energy flows to the market.
On one hand, actual exports are not falling but rising; on the other, oil prices are jumping with a several-point premium. The difference here is called panic premium, not real shortage.
The characteristic of panic premium is: it comes fast and goes fast. Before being led by a headline to chase long crude oil and casually short risk assets, first distinguish what is real supply and demand and what is just emotional fluctuation. The former can sustain; the latter can retreat at any moment.