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US spot BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $116 million yesterday. The number isn't huge, but the structure is worth a look. IBIT alone accounted for $95 million, making up 80%; the BTC ticker ETF saw another $52.6 million outflow. Together, these two total over $147 million, which already exceeds the total net outflow—indicating that other products had slight net inflows, partially offsetting the outflows. This is interesting. Previously, ETF outflows tended to move in unison, but now it's different: some are selling while others are still buying, though the buyers are quieter. The $116 million is the net result of two opposing forces, not a one-sided panic. Looking deeper: ETF subscriptions and redemptions correlate positively with $BTC price, but outflows transmit more slowly than inflows. Redemptions require settlement and market makers hedging, so price reactions often lag by a day or two. Therefore, my judgment is that this looks more like position rebalancing rather than a systemic retreat. IBIT is large, and its absolute adjustment numbers always look ugly, so you can't take its outflows alone as the market's overall sentiment. The real signal lies in persistence: net outflows lasting more than three consecutive days and spreading from IBIT to other products—that's when capital is truly leaving this asset class. $ETH and $SOL haven't followed the decline these past two days, which also indirectly shows that selling pressure remains locked within the $BTC ETF channel.Triple-line hedging, Big Bro Maji's "hard-holding ledger" Monitoring shows that Big Bro Maji is hard-holding the market with a massive long-short combination: $BTC short, $ETH long, $HYPE short advancing on three fronts, with a total margin of about 5,698,000 U and a total position value of about 62,980,000 U, maximizing the intensity of the game. BTC short: 40X full position, holding -249.9 BTC, average opening price 78,104.1 U, unrealized profit +325,700 U, funding fee +166,300 U, liquidation price 103,059.49 U, temporarily the "profit cushion" in the portfolio. ETH long: 25X full position, holding 9,823.81 ETH, average opening price 2,427.28 U, unrealized loss -1,722,900 U, funding fee -82,200 U, liquidation price 1,561.77 U, the long side is clearly under pressure. HYPE short: 5X full position, holding -259,600 HYPE, average opening price 72.8005 U, unrealized loss -2,765,900 U, funding fee +1,203,000 U, liquidation price 106.72 U, becoming the main source of loss. Roughly summed up, unrealized P&L is about -4,163,100 U, funding fee about +1,287,100 U, still in an unrealized loss state after hedging. The money earned from the BTC short is being eaten up by the ETH long and HYPE short. The triple-line liquidation prices still have some distance, but under a high-leverage full-position combination, any sharp unilateral surge or drop may trigger chain pressure. Hard-holding does not mean risk-free.There are obvious differences in the liquidation structures of BTC, ETH, and CORE: BTC and ETH mainly experience short liquidations within the 1-hour timeframe, but when extended to 4-hour and 24-hour periods, long liquidations are actually larger; CORE's 1-hour liquidations come entirely from longs. For BTC, the 1-hour liquidation volume is 35.0894 million U, with longs at 200,000 U and shorts at 34.8894 million U. The 4-hour liquidation expands to 110 million U, with longs at 70.661 million U and shorts at 37.7314 million U; the 24-hour liquidation reaches 160 million U, with longs at 97.6173 million U and shorts at 58.4455 million U. ETH follows a similar pattern. The 1-hour liquidation is 6.5824 million U, with longs at 591,800 U and shorts at 5.9907 million U; the 4-hour liquidation is 31.1973 million U, with longs at 24.0625 million U and shorts at 7.1348 million U; the 24-hour liquidation reaches 64.6826 million U, with longs at 37.1472 million U and shorts at 27.5354 million U. CORE's 1-hour liquidation is 4.8375 million U, all from longs, with no short liquidations. 💡 My view. The most notable aspect of this data set is the switch in liquidation direction between short and longer timeframes. The 1-hour data for BTC and ETH indicates that short-term fluctuations first force many shorts to exit, but the larger long liquidations at 4-hour and 24-hour intervals suggest that long leverage pressure becomes more pronounced in the subsequent market trend. The liquidation amounts only describe the forced liquidation structure that has occurred and cannot alone be used to infer the direction of the next market phase Strategy delivered a somewhat conflicted financial report last week From October 26 to November 1, the company used proceeds from common stock financing to buy 811 $BTC, about $65.5 million, at an average price of around 80,846, bringing total holdings up to 849,327 coins However, in the same week, it spent about $208.2 million in cash to repurchase STRC preferred shares, more than three times the amount spent on buying coins, with cash reserves dropping from about $242.4 million to about $132.7 million Institutions haven't been supportive either The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $27.4 million on November 3, marking three consecutive days of withdrawals, though this outflow is much smaller than the roughly $398.6 million on November 2, indicating a slowing outflow pace My view is that Strategy seems more focused on restructuring preferred stock liabilities this week rather than aggressively increasing positions In the short term, don't interpret this as a bullish trend signal On the market, $BTC in the Asian morning session fell from around 78,000 to about 77,000, with a 24-hour high/low of approximately 78,049/76,360, and a funding rate of about 0.01% Short term support is first seen at 76,800, which was tested several times this morning; breaking below this level suggests reducing positions Resistance above is at 77,500; holding above this level could target 78,000 next 最脆弱的一环从来不是选举结果，而是我们提前把"利好"全押进去的那部分仓位。 中期选举临近，你的仓位真的准备好面对"结果落地即波动"了吗？ 这几天翻自己的观察清单，越看越觉得有意思。众议院435席全部重选，参议院100席里约三分之一轮换，立法要两院同时点头才算数。换句话说，真正决定加密监管语境的不是谁赢，而是两院多数会不会形成互相牵制的格局。行业这边也没闲着，三家超级PAC砸了约1.7亿美元进场，这笔钱买的不是某个候选人，是未来数字资产立法环境的入场券。 市场在交易什么？我认为不是"谁赢BTC涨还是跌"这种粗糙叙事，而是政策预期被重新定价的那个瞬间。偏多的路径很清晰：如果两院格局让财政、税收、数字资产立法更顺畅，风险偏好会先在山寨和ETH上冒头，BTC反而更像压舱石。但风险信号也在闪：这1.7亿的行业押注本身就是被提前计价的预期，结果一旦模糊或陷入拉锯，最先松动的往往是杠杆最重的那批仓位，而不是价格本身。 我的风险日记里记了三条。 - 选举前情绪容易先冲高，别把冲高当确认。 - 结果拖延或"分治"格局出现时，山寨的回撤会快过BTC，节奏上要留缓冲。 - 真正值得盯的是立法推进的措辞变化，Today, the A-shares market closed with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping only 0.82%, the ChiNext Index plunging 2.73%, and the STAR 50 Index sharply falling 3.81%. Trading volume shrank to 1.7 trillion yuan, with over 3,300 stocks closing in the red. The chip industry chain saw a net outflow of 24.2 billion yuan in one day, with optical communication and computing hardware collectively drained; however, batteries and new energy sectors bucked the trend by attracting funds, and defensive sectors like insurance and rare earths also pushed upward. Huangtai Liquor hit a 4-day limit up, Gaozheng Civil Explosion and Dasheng Culture both hit 3-day limit ups. Low-level consumer and thematic stocks are still emerging, but the money flow path from high-level tech to low-level defensive stocks is very clear, so those who chased the morning rally likely ended up holding positions at the close. US chip stocks retraced some losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 2.64%, SanDisk rising over 4%, Broadcom and AMD up more than 3%, and the Nasdaq closing up 0.83%. However, Apple dropped nearly 2 points, warning that memory costs will continue to squeeze margins, causing the Dow to close in the red and Tesla to also end lower. Buyers of chips and buyers of Apple had very different trading days today. $BTC touched a new low again this afternoon, with Binance spot hitting around 76,388. The 24-hour total liquidation across the network was 338 million, with long positions accounting for 265 million. $ETH saw liquidations of 48 million. But looking closely at the liquidation structure, short positions on ETH already account for 70%, and those chasing shorts are starting to get bitten back. ETFs have lost over 800 million USD in six days, the fear and greed index is stuck at 26, and the money hasn't gone far—it's just switching sides. When switching sides, it's easiest for both sides to get hit.The "uncertainty" of the midterm elections is more costly than any negative factor On November 4th, the U.S. midterm election vote count was tight, and the control of Congress remained unclear. Do you understand the weight of this signal? The market is not afraid of "which party wins." The market fears "not knowing who wins." Political uncertainty leads to a global contraction of risk assets overall, with short-term funds tending to lock in profits or stay on the sidelines, causing the market to exhibit "low volume oscillations and high-frequency shakeouts" as a risk-averse characteristic. The deeper issue is hidden in the CLARITY Act. This bill, which determines the long-term regulatory framework for U.S. digital assets, failed to reach the 60-vote threshold in a procedural Senate vote in September and has yet to break through. The midterm elections change the composition of the next Congress, thereby altering the political calculations for this bill when it restarts in 2027. Bitcoin was not brought down by "a certain candidate." It was indirectly pushed down by the fact of "not knowing who is in charge." $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 $SPCX The Texas flip to blue will definitely put pressure on assets related to Elon Musk, there's no doubt about that. This pressure might not be short-lived. I don't want to say things like "The Texas data center might face delays, so it's beneficial for Orbit Data Center." Because such words sound more like forced consolation at times like this. Accept the Republican Party's crushing defeat, the future policy environment might be unfavorable, but just firmly believe in the big trend of technological development.$SOL SOL price is pushing upwards, yet the bears are still stubbornly resisting, with short positions piling up to nearly 53%. The funniest part is, the largest short liquidation zone above is concentrated at $94.18, just a mere 0.6% away from the current price. With such obvious bait hanging right there, how could the main players pretend to be blind? The more people rush to test the top, the more fuel they provide for the bulls to push the price up. Don't be that contrarian hero; a slight misstep and you could end up fueling the upward spike along with your position. #SOL $SOL 👇Congressional seats determine regulatory expectations, but will BTC really surge to 87,000 or drop back to 60,000 because of this? The impact of the U.S. midterm elections is shifting from political news to policy pricing in the crypto market. Three possible outcomes may correspond to different market expectations: First, if the Republican Party continues to control both chambers, the existing crypto policy agenda may have smoother conditions for advancement, but bills still need to pass through Congress, so positive news does not necessarily mean BTC will break through $87,000. Second, if the Democratic Party controls both chambers, regulatory review and legislative priorities may change, but the president still holds veto power, so it cannot be simply inferred that BTC will inevitably fall to $60,000. Third, if the two parties split control of the chambers, the importance of bipartisan negotiations increases, and advancing the CLARITY Act may face more coordination costs. The bill previously failed to pass the Senate's 60-vote procedural threshold, indicating that legislative difficulties are not solely about party seats. My view is that the election affects midterm expectations, but in the short term, we still need to watch capital flows, the dollar, and price structure. Don't bet on the outcome prematurely, and don't treat scenario price levels as certain targets. Wait for the vote count to become clear, then let the market provide direction. $BTC Performance exceeded expectations and a stock split was announced, yet SanDisk still fell 13%. 1. There's nothing wrong with SanDisk's report: performance exceeded expectations, and a stock split was announced, but the stock price still dropped over 13%. Good news all around but the price fell, indicating the market is using good news as a selling point now; the storage price hike expectation has already been priced in. 2. The same feeling applies to $SOL as well. BTC touched above 78,000 during the day, SOL only slightly declined, the rhythm still hasn't caught up; funding rates are close to zero, open interest hasn't risen, and few leveraged positions have chased in. 3. A few days ago, spot ETF outflows exceeded 2 billion USD, yet the price barely moved, basically just existing funds circulating. In this environment, good news turning into bad news and the lower bound of sideways trading not holding up are normal. For $SOL to have an independent rally, incremental funds need to come in first. #闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% $SOL[Texas Political Shift, AI Computing Power Stocks Take the First Hit] The Democratic Party has taken the majority in the Senate and also won the Texas governor and senator elections. Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa has explicitly proposed suspending new data center construction, limiting water and electricity resource consumption, and canceling related tax incentives. For the AI industry, this directly cuts into the main artery, restricting the infrastructure for computing power expansion. About one-quarter of the expected data center capacity by 2030 in the U.S. is concentrated in Texas, with related planned projects totaling 13.3GW. Once the new government pushes for stricter approvals and energy regulations, the impact will affect not only data center operators but also GPU cloud service providers that rely on continuous expansion. High-debt, high-capital expenditure companies like $CRWV are especially sensitive. The market reaction is clear: Nasdaq futures once dropped more than 2%, and CoreWeave's after-hours decline reached about 7%. The AI sector was already facing huge capital expenditures, financing costs, and investment return pressures; this election adds policy uncertainty. Some took advantage of the vote counting period to continuously short CoreWeave via TWAP, indicating that funds are trading around this direction. It is worth focusing on the fact that AI computing power expansion is encountering local political and energy resource constraints for the first time. AI demand will not disappear because of the election, but whether data centers can be built and whether they can get sufficiently cheap electricity may be more worthy of revaluation than GPU orders.The index looks bad today, but the structure is shifting, and the change is quite obvious. The Shanghai Composite Index in A-shares fell 0.82%, the ChiNext Index plunged 2.73%, and trading volume shrank by 80.2 billion compared to yesterday. Semiconductors and communication equipment took a hit, but defensive sectors like medical aesthetics, insurance, rare earths, and aviation airports pushed up against the trend. Solid-state battery company Shangshui Intelligent also hit the limit up. In media, Dasheng Culture hit a 3-day limit up, and Wintour Holdings had 5 limit ups in 6 days. The money hasn't left the market; it just moved from tech hardware to safer places. The US Nasdaq rose 0.83%, Nvidia gained 2.29% to reclaim the top spot in global market cap, and Microsoft and Meta both rose over 2%. But Apple dropped 1.9%, warning that memory costs will squeeze gross margins, dragging the Dow into the red. Buyers of chips and buyers of Apple are not in the same world today. $BTC saw liquidations of 106 million in 24 hours, $ETH liquidations reached 48 million, with long positions still accounting for nearly 80% of the entire network, but short liquidations on ETH have already reached 70%. The fear and greed index is stuck at 34. Leverage clearing has shifted from a one-sided long squeeze to a long-short double kill. The worst part may be almost over, but the money is not rushing back yet. Three major tokens are flashing the same warning at once, and the synchrony matters more than any single chart. $BTC, $ETH and $ZEC are all printing overbought readings while their funding rates sit in positive territory — a combination that historically describes a crowded long side rather than fresh conviction. Start with $BTC at 77,737. Price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band with RSI near 70, but the tell is what happened at 77,884: two attempts, both rejected, on volume too thin to confirOn the news front, market risk appetite remains weak, with the results of the U.S. midterm elections becoming a key short-term variable affecting risk assets. As some U.S. states gradually announce election results, the market is beginning to assess the impact of changes in congressional control on subsequent cryptocurrency regulatory policies and the legislative progress of the CLARITY Act. Policy uncertainty continues to limit institutional capital inflows. Meanwhile, Asian stock markets are generally under pressure today, with major indices in South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan showing significant declines. The tech stock sell-off sentiment continues to transmit to global risk assets. U.S. employment data is also another important variable this week; Friday's nonfarm payroll report may influence market judgments on the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path. The user fund withdrawals triggered by the previous Binance security incident are still ongoing, but market focus has gradually shifted from the incident itself to whether funds can flow back in. On the capital side, institutional funds have not shown obvious recovery. The U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $398.6 million on November 2, and preliminary statistics for November 3 still show a net outflow of about $20.6 million, though some fund data is incomplete, so the final figures may be adjusted. According to current statistics, the cumulative net outflow of BTC ETFs over the past five trading days is about $907.9 million, indicating that institutional funds remain overall in a defensive stance. In the derivatives market, approximately $181.7 million was liquidated across the entire market in the past 24 hours, with long positions liquidated at about $121.7 million, accounting for roughly 67%. BTC single liquidations were about $45.05 million, showing that bulls are still under considerable pressure.$APR | SHORT SETUP 💵 APR is facing selling pressure near 0.03912. A weak retest of resistance could support a potential short trade. Entry: 0.03916–0.03924 TP1: 0.03881 TP2: 0.03857 TP3: 0.03834 SL: 0.03943 Confirm bearish momentum before execution.#AMDQ3DataCenterUp97% $LIT Positive news: Chainlink Asia-Pacific stock market data integrated into Lighter, LIT up 6%, CFTC application to be submitted within the month Is there solid news supporting LIT's rise today? OKX current price is $3.2812, up 6.17% in 24 hours, with about $24.5 million in trading volume Yes, Chainlink expanded Asia-Pacific stock data streams on November 3, covering over $40 trillion in stock markets across China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, including TSMC, Tencent, and Samsung. Lighter is among the first platforms to go live with this data On the same day, the number of stock tokens that can be used as collateral on Lighter's Robinhood Chain increased from 11 to 23, adding Apple, Amazon, and Coinbase. This means more tradable assets and margin options, directly corresponding to increased trading volume and fee demand Looking ahead to regulation, founder Novakovski stated that applications for DCM and DCO licenses will be submitted to the US CFTC within November, but have not been filed yet The price rise is capped by the team and investors starting to unlock tokens on December 27. Currently, about 250 million tokens are circulating, only one quarter of the total supply.Revenue surged 96%, but the stock price fell more than 5% in pre-market Palantir's Q3 revenue was $2.313 billion, up 96% year-over-year, exceeding the expected $2.18 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.44, also beating expectations. U.S. commercial revenue was $984 million, up 148% year-over-year, surpassing U.S. government business for the first time ever. The full-year guidance was also raised to $8.53 billion, with a growth rate of about 91%. The problem lies in orders: Q3 total contract value was $2.918 billion, up only 6% year-over-year. The growth rate of U.S. commercial contract value dropped sharply from over 153% last quarter to 11%. Coupled with a price-to-earnings ratio of 153, the market has lost patience waiting for the next deal. I think this is not a deterioration in performance, but the valuation rose ahead of the results; I am observing, not chasing. The invalidation point is the contract value growth returning to triple digits, or the stock price closing above $180 with volume. Will you take advantage of this pullback to buy cheap, or wait for the order data to warm up first? $PLTR $AAPL #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 To start with a cold splash of water, although I tend to be bearish first, I don't get excited just because someone is heavily shorting. These kinds of trades most easily lead people to misinterpret "daring to bet" as "being confident in the prediction." The first thing I focus on is not how much can be earned, but whether this position has room to breathe if the market moves against it. The direction can be slowly verified, but leverage might not give you the time. This time, Core Trader 19 (0x0c1f69…9672b) opened a short on BTC with 40x leverage, with a nominal value of about $422,900. My judgment is: it looks more like a directional bet with very narrow fault tolerance, not yet a solid bearish basis. There are two reasons: roughly calculated by leverage, a reverse fluctuation of about 2.5% equals the initial margin size, but actual liquidation is also affected by margin mode, maintenance margin, etc.; additionally, nominal position size does not equal judgment quality. Looking only at this monitoring data, we don't know if it is hedged. Taking someone else's risk exposure directly as a market conclusion misses a logical step. Of course, this trader might also be right. If BTC continues to decline and the rebound fails to recover the losses, I will increase my recognition of the bearish continuation; this is my observation condition, not a market that has already happened. If the price instead rises, I speculate the first to suffer will be the high-leverage shorts, not those who are only bearish in words. I will next watch whether the price can verify the bearish judgment, not substituting evidence with position size.$HYPE Does greater market volatility mean better revenue quality for HYPE? Perpetual contract platforms may earn more fees, but intense liquidations, market maker order cancellations, and user losses can also harm subsequent retention. If fee growth is accompanied by stable depth, diversified users, and healthy collateral, value capture is more credible; if trading is concentrated in a few accounts or relies on subsidies and high leverage, revenue sustainability should be discounted. I will reassess retention after the hype fades.I've been consistently shorting Bitcoin $BTC throughout this week, and today the strategy finally delivered a significant result! I personally achieved a 700% return, while several fellow traders who followed my analysis also made thousands of dollars. So, what makes me so confident about maintaining a bearish position on Bitcoin? Let me explain my reasoning. 📊 Comparing the Market Structure Ethereum $ETH started its move around 1,900 on August 19, climbed to a high of 2,860, and has recentlyThe easiest thing to get carried away with when watching the market is staring at large orders. When you see millions of dollars traded on the screen, your fingers immediately itch, thinking the money is coming in and the price must go up, right? But often the order is filled and the price doesn't move at all. Gold has played out like this twice in the past two days. A $1.149 million long order came in at 3905, and the price really stopped falling and even broke 3940. But when a $7.89 million long order came in at 3943.63, the price still dropped; having more money doesn't help. So I only trust large orders halfway, and the other half depends on whether the price respects the order after it's filled. Right now, there's buying support between 3940 and 3945; let's see if $PAXG can hold that level first.Gold has been moving very textbook-like these past two days, worth breaking down. The 3905–3900 support zone mentioned yesterday afternoon took effect, XAU pulled back and then rebounded, breaking resistance and reaching a high of 3979. What’s worth watching is not the price increase, but the price reaction after three large orders were executed. First, look at 3905: a $1.149 million long order was executed, the price stopped falling, then broke through 3940. After the money entered, the price moved accordingly, the support is real. Next, look at 3950: a $2.3526 million sell-to-close long order was executed, which normally would push the price down, but instead it didn’t fall and rose all the way to 3979. The sell order didn’t create pressure, indicating there was more aggressive buying support below. But there are counterexamples at the same level. The $2.4 million sell-to-close short order at 3950 and the $7.89 million long order at 3943.63 didn’t stop the pullback. The buy orders were executed but didn’t hold the price. Putting these four orders together, the conclusion is simple: large orders themselves are not signals; the feedback after execution is what matters. If the price doesn’t fall after a sell order executes, it’s bullish; if it doesn’t rise, selling pressure is effective. If the price doesn’t rise after a buy order executes, it’s bearish; if it stops falling, the support is effective. Currently, large buy orders are being executed around 3940–3945, playing a supporting role. $PAXG and $XAUT are most closely linked to gold prices and can be watched simultaneously; $BTC follows the same interpretation. One question remains: if the buying at this level is eaten up but the price doesn’t fall, do you see it as support or as someone slowly unloading their position?The Crypto Chessboard After the Midterm Elections: BTC Holds Steady, ETH Experiences Underlying Currents Before the dust settles on the midterm elections, Trump has temporarily paused strikes against Iran, but geopolitical risks remain. What truly moves the crypto market is the new map of Capitol Hill. The mainstream expectation points to a "minority majority" rather than a decisive majority—whether losing one or both chambers, a regulatory deadlock is highly likely to continue. The already effective GENIUS Act will not be repealed by the new Congress, while the CLARITY Act fell short in a Senate procedural vote at 49:50 before the election, making its passage in 2026 nearly impossible. If the Democrats take the House, they gain hearing, subpoena, and investigative powers, but not the votes to rewrite laws; the presidential veto remains a firewall, with a very low probability of being overridden by two-thirds. Legislation remains frozen, and regulatory friction shifts from "Congressional legislation" to "committee investigations plus administrative enforcement." For BTC, the pricing anchors are macro liquidity, dollar credit, and institutional allocation; the distribution of congressional seats does not directly alter these variables. Even if the Democrats sweep, BTC remains the most resilient crypto asset. But ETH is different—it is deeply tied to DeFi, market structure legislation, securities classification, and compliance pathways. The death of the CLARITY Act combined with increased Democratic scrutiny will suppress ETH's valuation elasticity. Under regulatory deadlock, BTC is resilient, ETH is sensitive, and divergence is the main theme. $BTC $ETH #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ 🚨 BITCOIN IS NOT NECESSARILY ENTERING A BEAR MARKET! Selling pressure on $BTC is showing signs of weakening as the current decline is significantly less than previous corrections. Comparison of 4-week declines: - November 2025: -30% - January 2026: -35% - May 2026: -28% - Current: -12% This indicates that selling intensity has decreased, opening the possibility for accumulation and recovery. However, BTC still needs to hold support and confirm a reversal before concluding the downtrend has ended.Midterm election vote counting shows Democrats leading in both the House and Senate, with Nasdaq futures dropping nearly 1% overnight. In the major banks' pre-game scenarios, a Democratic sweep was already considered the worst case, with the S&P fluctuating between -0.25% and +0.5%. Those predicting a drop of over 10% are calculating long-term impacts of higher taxes and increased regulation, not just one night's vote count. Since 1950, the S&P has never fallen in the 12 months following midterm elections, averaging a 15% rise. Tonight's sell-off is more about positioning than fundamentals. $110,900 is the number I most wanted to break down when I saw this opening position: it is the nominal position, not the principal, nor the maximum possible loss. In the material, Core Trader 19 opened a long $SNDK position with 10x leverage, amounting to 104.284 units. The result of this trade is still unknown, but what I want to understand more is: how much risk information can this amount actually tell me? If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set a rule: if there is no stop-loss condition and account equity available, just record this long position without upgrading it to an executable signal. It sounds a bit timid, but I think "someone dares to buy" and "the risk suits me" are two different things. 🤖 Assuming the price moves 1% against the position and the position size remains unchanged, the price loss on this position would be about $1,109, excluding fees; but how much of the account equity this represents is not provided in the material. My judgment is that the nominal amount can only estimate the profit and loss caused by volatility, and cannot alone determine how aggressive the trader is. The advantage of this rule is that it stops me from imagining the confidence of a big player, but the flaw is obvious: the full risk control may not be visible on-chain, and incomplete data means skipping it, possibly missing opportunities. But at the self-learning stage, I prefer to accept missing signals. If you were to write this condition, would you require "a clear stop-loss must exist," or allow filtering by "assuming a 3% adverse move, loss not exceeding 1% of account equity"?The latest September JOLTS report adds some new nuances to the employment outlook: about 7.52 million job openings, an increase in voluntary quits, and overall little change in hiring and layoffs. I pay particular attention to voluntary quits. Willingness to leave current positions often means someone has found a new job or believes reemployment opportunities are still decent. This alone cannot prove wages will accelerate soon, but it does indicate the labor market is not just about a slowdown in hiring. This also explains why September's job gains were weak and why the Federal Reserve has not easily shifted its stance. Net new jobs are just the outcome; the underlying flows of company hiring, employee job changes, and layoffs also need to be considered. However, JOLTS covers September, while this week's nonfarm payrolls cover October, so you can't use data from the previous month to prematurely declare the next month's outcome. The two reports also have different survey scopes. What makes it difficult now is that each data set only provides part of the picture. A small increase in jobs does not necessarily mean large-scale layoffs; an increase in quits does not guarantee everyone quickly finds a new job. At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, I will wait for the new jobs, wages, and revisions to come out together. December rate hike expectations may adjust accordingly, but before the report is released, it's still too soon to piece together several clues into a definite conclusion. #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 The only highlight for LTC is the halving in August next year. I made a prediction chart. When will this coin start? What do you think? $LTC $ZRO This morning I saw a sentence: 'LayerZero weekly rebound leads, up 29% from the low point.' That's not wrong, from 1.42 to 1.86, it is indeed still near the top of the rebound list. But when I checked my own portfolio, today is bearish. The daily open was 1.8979, now 1.8576, down two points intraday. That +8.3% was accumulated during yesterday daytime. What’s stranger is the open interest. The whole network has over 90 million open contracts, but OKX perpetual contracts only have 9.05 million USD, with 24-hour volume just over 20 million. For a rebound of this scale, leverage basically hasn’t entered; the money is on other exchanges and spot markets. The fee rate is 0.0045%, annualized less than 5%, and the bulls aren’t even willing to pay a premium. The candle at 11 o’clock pulled back from 1.793 to 1.857, volume increased to 550,000 contracts, the largest among these twelve candles, someone is buying at this position. I don’t see this as the start of a trend, it looks more like a correction after a drop. If it really wants to go up, we first need to see when OKX’s open interest catches up. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $SNDK From 1150.3 to 1049.1, in four hours. At 7 AM, it still touched 1150.3, forming a double top with yesterday's 10 PM at 1155.8, but the next four hourly candles were all bearish, and at 11 AM it directly dropped to 1049.1, down more than eight points from the high, now at 1081.7. When I wrote this at midnight, the surge was a reduction of positions, and the funding rate was only 0.0023%. Now it's 0.051%, a twentyfold increase. The price fell, and the bulls started paying to hold their positions. The open interest hasn't dropped either, 123 million, slightly more than the 119 million at midnight. This isn't about how fierce the bears are, but that the bulls refuse to give up. The KOSPI in South Korea fell 4% intraday today; the two storage companies have the largest weight in the index, and SanDisk's line follows the storage sentiment, no escape. I don't take this kind of trade. A decline with open interest not dropping and funding rates still rising is usually halfway down the mountain. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ It feels like all earnings expectations need to be adjusted; the market is really terrible. From the US stock market to cryptocurrencies, everything is overshadowed by the big outcome of the midterm elections. If the time until $CRCL announces its earnings were a bit longer, I might not think it will exceed expectations. Currently, I still believe $CRCL's revenue will likely continue to grow this earnings season, but the profit side may not bring surprises to the market. In other words, the stock price might decline in the following trading days. Whether USDC's scale growth can truly convert into profits will be the key to the subsequent trend! Circle will announce its Q3 2026 earnings before the US market opens on November 4. The market expects revenue of about $789 million and adjusted earnings per share of about $0.42. From a fundamental perspective, USDC remains Circle's largest growth engine. In Q2, USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, and on-chain transaction volume reached $14.8 trillion, a 151% year-over-year increase. Federal Reserve interest rate changes will affect reserve asset yields, and rising Coinbase distribution costs may also erode Circle's profit margins. Additionally, the new business revenue brought by the launch of the Arc mainnet is actually very poor. It's the dumbest chain, and whether it can generate sustainable income still needs time to verify. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Whether this distribution cost can be controlled, and whether more revenue sharing will be required when negotiating cooperation with more partners in the future, needs special attention. Distribution cost refers to the fees Circle pays to partners to promote USDC and increase its usage. Simply put: Circle issues USDC itself and invests USDC's reserve assets (mainly cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds) to earn interest. But for USDC to truly circulate, exchanges, wallets, payment platforms, and other channels need to help promote and use it. These channels won't help for free, so Circle has to share part of the interest income it earns with them; this part is the distribution cost. It directly determines how much profit Circle can ultimately keep: Profit ≈ Reserve interest income − Distribution cost − Other expenses. $BTC Binance was slammed with a $6.3 billion hit — a nuclear-level black swan event devastating for the bears, yet BTC only dropped 5% and was fully absorbed. The bulls' support on the order book is ridiculously strong; once all the negative news is out, that's the bottom. Plus, the hacked exchanges behind the scenes have to buy tens of billions of dollars worth of BTC on the spot market to cover the gap — this is a solid, rigid buy demand. The bears can't break through this time; they can only fuel the rigid buy demand going forward. #BTC $BTC 👇Where did the 18,270 BTC stolen from Binance go? Not a single BTC from the batch stolen from Binance has moved to this day. Last week, Binance's hot wallet was hacked, losing 18,270 BTC. On-chain, the attacker dispersed these funds across 19 addresses, and so far there has been no activity—no coin mixing, nor transfers to exchanges. During the same period, the exchange's net transfers fluctuated wildly: during the decline, daily net inflows once reached about 11,500 and 8,000 BTC, followed by a net outflow of about 40,000 BTC; after the hacker incident, BTC spot ETFs recorded a single-day net outflow as high as $643 million. Once this batch of BTC starts moving, Orbit will be livelier than during the New Year celebrations. Can't wait.Today, the index and accounts are two different matters. In the A-share morning session, Suochen Technology, a physical AI company, hit the 20% daily limit. AI comic companies Dasheng Culture, Zhejiang Film Industry, and Longban Media all achieved three consecutive daily limits. Small metal company Yunnan Germanium also hit the limit, making the market look quite lively. However, within the first hour, the two markets shrank by 67.1 billion yuan, with over 3,000 stocks declining. Computing hardware surged then fell back, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communications turning negative. Those chasing the morning session likely ended up holding positions at close. US chip stocks took a hit; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.64%, SanDisk rose over 4%, and Nvidia rose 2.26%, regaining the title of the world's largest market cap. However, the Dow Jones fell 0.38%, Apple dropped nearly 2%, Tesla fell 1.32%, and the seven giants are no longer moving in unison. $BTC broke a new low again after 2 PM, with Binance spot hitting 76388, and $ETH holding around 2247. In the past 12 hours, the entire network liquidated 298 million, with long positions accounting for 271 million. BTC liquidations were 67.8 million, ETH liquidations were 40.35 million. The key point is that contract positions are increasing even as prices fall, rising from 7.46 billion to 7.65 billion. With this structure, it’s indeed difficult to see a decent rebound. The index is holding, money is shrinking, and the cost of chasing highs Is always greater than staying put. Still relying on treasury increases to brainwash yourself? Take a look at the ETF fund flows. Spot BTC ETF has a cumulative net outflow of 1.042 billion, with total net assets dropping to 98.1 billion. Strategy bought 65.5 million to acquire 811 BTC, while on the other side, it directly took out 208 million to repurchase preferred shares. Strive increased holdings by 124 BTC, relying on 15% annualized financing. This is not a large-scale entry, just accounting maneuvers. BTC is stuck in the 77,000–80,000 range, fluctuating, down 0.61% intraday, with buying momentum fading. No need to say more about ETH. Funds continue to flee; whenever BTC turns, it falls faster than anyone else. Occasionally it rallies along, but that's just riding the wind, without its own main force. Don't expect corporate treasuries to save the day. They are doing business, not carrying retail investors. Sporadic increases can't fill the hole left by ETF outflows. Without sustained inflows, 80,000 is a very difficult barrier to cross. Jumping in now to catch the falling knife means taking chips that institutions are offloading in batches. $BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 $UNI is very strong 1. Because Binance still hasn't opened withdrawals, it means the missing coins haven't been replenished enough. Once withdrawals are opened, the strong opportunity will disappear and it will follow the overall market. 2. UNI and ETH share the same wallet code. ETH withdrawals have already opened, but UNI hasn't, which can help support my judgment. $ETH Fellow retail investors, take a look at this ETH liquidation chart! Around 2167, there are 717 million long positions buried, and above at 2482, there are 607 million short positions pressing down. 😭 Right now it's grinding back and forth in the middle, a typical meat grinder scenario. No matter which side breaks first, it will aggressively sweep the positions on that side, specifically targeting those rushing in to chase the pump or dump. 😭 Both sides have piled up large orders so thickly11月3日，BTC在76400-77000美元窄幅震荡。清算热力图给出一个不对称结构：向上突破80854美元，触发16.37亿美元空单清算；向下跌破73494美元，触发10.13亿-15.87亿美元多单清算。 上方水量更大，下方纵深更近（仅约4.5%）。这就是"不对称收敛"。 上方 8万关口是长期心理阻力，鲸鱼和散户在此用高杠杆（13x）堆空单，对冲基金也通过CME Micro比特币期货加短期空头。参考2026年5月突破8万时，1小时清算1.04亿空单、价格涨1.56%——当前规模更大，理论轧空更强。 但缺动力：现货比特币ETF在10月30日和11月2日累计失血逾10.4亿美元，贝莱德IBIT单日流出超4亿；科技股疲软，中期选举临近。 下方 三点。一是持仓结构更优，Strategy平均成本75451美元、贴近现价且仍在增持，下方多头更多是长期价值判断而非投机。二是现货支撑更足，比特币1%价格区间内的挂单流动性已超越2025年10月崩盘当日、较崩盘时增长约75%，做市商投入的是真实资本，这会让清算压力更可能"软着陆"。三是缓冲更近，多头有时间组织防御。 硬不等于打不穿。跌破73494仍会#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 The leader has something to say On November 3rd, the CFTC allowed the first U.S. single-stock perpetual futures, permitting related products to be traded on exchanges registered with both the CFTC and SEC. The first batch was filed by Nadex, covering Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla, using cash settlement with no expiration date. I believe this is a landmark event where the crypto derivatives model successfully "forces" traditional finance. Previously, these perpetual contracts with no expiration and high leverage were exclusive to the crypto world; now they have directly entered the U.S. stock derivatives market. However, there is significant resistance. On the same day, organizations supported by Cboe, Citadel Securities, and others filed lawsuits questioning its regulatory classification. The comments section is insightful; the opening of U.S. stock perpetuals means Hyperliquid is about to enter a new phase. This is a battle for pricing power and jurisdiction over the derivatives market, and Wall Street's traditional giants will not yield easily. On the market front, BTC is currently oscillating between 77,000 and 80,000. Let's see if it can hold above 80,000; if not, expect a deeper pullback. Resistance is between 84,000 and 85,000. Do not chase the rise or kill the dip; set your stop losses properly. The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Positive news for Circle Ark Invest increases holdings of $CRCL I believe the most important logic here is stablecoins. USDC issued by Circle is no longer just a simple dollar stablecoin; it has become a crucial infrastructure for payments, trading settlement, and on-chain finance in the crypto market. If the crypto market continues to move towards compliance in the future, the application scenarios for stablecoins may further expand: Payment sector: Stablecoins have the potential to become important tools for cross-border payments and international settlements. Financial sector: The development of RWA, tokenized stocks, and other businesses requires stablecoins to provide settlement infrastructure. Institutional sector: More and more traditional financial institutions are exploring on-chain business, and stablecoins may become the bridge connecting traditional finance and the crypto market. Therefore, ARK increasing its holdings in Circle may be betting that the next phase of growth in the crypto industry will not only come from BTC price increases and trading volume growth but also from the maturation of underlying financial infrastructure. First, the long-term value of the stablecoin sector is being re-recognized. In the past, when people thought about the crypto market, they first thought of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and exchanges. But in the future, stablecoins may become one of the most important infrastructures in the entire industry. Second, traditional capital may be shifting its narrative from trading to financial infrastructure. Exchange performance is easily affected by market conditions, while stablecoins, payment, and settlement businesses have the opportunity to form broader application scenarios. Third, institutions are not indiscriminately bullish on crypto stocks $BTC This morning I wrote "Midterm elections are just noise for BTC," but 4 hours later I was proven wrong: the Democrats also secured key seats in the Senate, raising expectations of a "blue wave." BTC dropped to 75,734 at 11 o'clock, breaking below the October low of 76,265. US stock market close (05:00) to 12:00, OKX perpetual contracts: · Nasdaq 100 -1.8%, Nvidia -1.9%, S&P 500 -1.1% · BTC -1.2% (intraday low -2.7%) · Gold +0.6%; AMD earnings beat expectations +3.6%, but couldn't lift the market The dollar fell to a 30-day low, US Treasury yields declined; according to textbook logic, BTC should rise, but it fell along with the Nasdaq. The market is trading on: congressional turnover, with crypto legislation possibly being delayed. Revised judgment: House turnover was priced in early, the Senate was the surprise. Current price around 76,900, has reclaimed 76,265; if it closes holding above that, the break is false; if not, look for 75,734. BTC is not afraid of elections, but fears unpriced outcomes. Not investment advice | Data: OKX, Reuters, Bloomberg #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ 当前加密市场的核心主线依旧是杠杆解除，$BTC、$ETH、$SOL 都处在这一轮去杠杆周期当中，资金流向的分化值得留意。比特币（$BTC）的抛压最重，24 小时现货净流出 10.64 亿美元，期货净流出 30.98 亿美元，去杠杆的压力还没有结束。 以太坊（$ETH）出现了矛盾的资金信号，四小时现货净流入3706万美元，但同期期货流出1.71亿美元，短暂的现货买盘很难抵消衍生品端的资金撤离，中期压力仍在。索拉纳（$SOL）现货表现相对平稳，不过 24 小时期货资金持续回撤，去杠杆进程同样没有走完。 平仓数据也出现明显变化，市场先是清算多头，现在空头也开始被扫。3 日总平仓规模 3.79 亿美元，多头占近九成；到 4 日总平仓小幅回落至约 3.67 亿美元，多头平仓依旧居多，但空头平仓已经抬升到 7872 万美元。 分币种来看，比特币（$BTC）平仓里六成以上是多头，买家还在持续被挤出；以太坊（$ETH）和索拉纳（$SOL）的平仓里空头占比更高，卖家开始吃到反弹带来的损失。 这只是杠杆清洗的后半段，并不是行情复苏。多空都遭遇强平的时候，市场只是在试探底部，还没有企稳的基础。接下来The $1.042B of combined ETF outflows across Oct. 30 and Nov. 2 matters because it outweighed the reported corporate additions, even as Strategy and Strive kept buying. Strive's 15% preferred-share dividend also shows that institutional demand can persist while becoming more expensive to fund. Whether ETF flows stabilize is the missing evidence. #BTCInstitutionalDemand #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ 宏观经济影响？ The vote counting phase of the U.S. midterm elections has begun. How will control of Congress change? What are the macroeconomic impacts? The counting phase shows that the Democrats have secured the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains contested. However, the market baseline expectation is a "split Congress" (Democrats controlling the House, Republicans controlling the Senate). The core macroeconomic impact of this scenario is a policy deadlock replacing policy expansion. On the fiscal side, Democratic control of the House means that the legislative space for large-scale tax cuts or fiscal stimulus is closed off, and expectations for deficit expansion are marginally reduced, putting downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and weakening the dollar. On the regulatory side, the technology and AI sectors face higher uncertainty: Democrats tend to strengthen scrutiny on data center energy consumption, antitrust issues, and AI safety, which may disrupt related capital expenditure rhythms. However, substantive federal legislation is still constrained by the presidential veto power, so the impact is more on short-term sentiment. If the Senate also ends up under Democratic control, expectations for fiscal constraints and tighter regulation will strengthen simultaneously, putting more pressure on U.S. tech stocks, while gold would benefit from lower real interest rates and safe-haven demand. Overall, a divided government limits large swings in macro policy, making it more likely that the economy will continue on its current path. Market focus will quickly return to the Federal Reserve's trajectory and inflation data.After reviewing the Binance $6.34 billion theft incident, I increasingly feel: the world is just a huge makeshift troupe. An engineer downloaded poisoned AI software, another employee was tricked by a fake recruitment interview, hackers gradually infiltrated the internal system, and finally gained wallet access. The most surreal part is that Binance urgently suspended withdrawals, yet money was still being transferred out. You might think the world's top exchanges are impenetrable fortresses, but no matter how advanced the system is, it can't withstand human error. Fortunately, Binance promised to cover the losses, but being able to compensate and not having incidents are two different things. I've been dollar-cost averaging $BTC for 401 days, holding 1.7307 coins. The exchange is responsible for buying coins, and once I accumulate a whole number, I transfer them to Ledger. In this 30-year marathon, I don't want to put all my chips on someone else's makeshift troupe. Would you dare to keep all your BTC on an exchange for 30 years? $NEAR NEAR's current deflation show is really laughable. In a single month, $13 million was minted out of thin air, $1.9 million was repurchased but all locked into the treasury without burning. Printing money with the left hand while stocking inventory with the right, protocol revenue can't even cover the fractional increase from minting. The faucet is wide open, spraying wildly, and the small buy orders on the market can't withstand the net dilution. With this token structure, the support levels below will inevitably be broken through sooner or later. #NEAR $NEAR 👇$UNI If funds leave centralized platforms, will they automatically become long-term users of Uniswap? On-chain swaps may accommodate migration demand, but one-time transfers, arbitrage, and continuous trading are different matters. A sudden increase in volume could also just be event-driven turnover. I pay attention to trading depth, user retention, and fees after the event passes. If volume falls back but liquidity in core trading pairs remains stable, the migration still holds value; if depth declines in sync with fading interest, short-term volume spikes cannot be extrapolated as long-term growth.Ethereum has climbed back above $2,250, with the price once approaching $2,270. However, the current funding situation for ETH remains less than ideal. The US Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for five consecutive trading days, with about $155.7 million withdrawn on October 30 alone. From October 26 to 30, the cumulative net outflow reached $431.4 million. Notably, approximately 43.8 million ETH are currently staked, accounting for about 35.9% of the circulating supply.
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