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Glassnode and ETF
🔍 Latest Glassnode view: The selling pressure at the beginning of October has eased, but new buying has not yet appeared.
📊 Key points:
Spot and ETF buyers are still absent, ETF trading volume is below the recent range's lower bound
Options traders are buying downside protection, implied volatility is higher than realized volatility
Network fees and transfer volume have dropped about 10%, profit-taking has decreased
📉 Last week BTC spot ETF net outflow was about $228.6 million, the previous week about $681 million, two weeks about $910 million (my own calculation).
🧾 Comparison: September spot BTC ETF net inflow was about $2.65 billion, October cumulative net outflow about $615 million (Digital Today).
Glassnode expects limited upside before ETF and spot buyers return. This is their judgment; I'm not sure if it's right or if I might be wrong.
📍 Levels I'm watching:
$83,000: Monday's high
$81,000 to $82,000: Key range mentioned by CryptoTimes
$80,000: Round number level
What signal do you think we need to see before ETF buying returns?
$BTC #BTCETHETFOutflows $ZEC Brothers, I, Hei Mao, have added to my short position. Some might say I’m too bold to short at this time.
But I tell you, it’s not about courage; I saw the bloodstains at the corner of the dog dealer’s mouth.
Look at the candlestick chart, $ETH just surged from 2369 straight up to 2477 with a fierce rally. How many people thought "the bull is back" and rushed in to go long?
And the result?
At 2477, it immediately stalled, not even giving a chance to hold steady. Now it’s been sliding down to 2438, breaking below the short-term moving average. The MACD has formed a death cross at a high level, with the green bars growing longer and longer.
What is this called? This is called "inviting the guest into the urn."
The main force painstakingly pulled this wave, not to help you get out of your losses, but to create a false impression and trap all you retail investors chasing highs halfway up the mountain!
Why dare to add to the position at this point?
Because the logic is clear.
The macro pressure from the large cycle hasn’t changed; the market has no sustained incremental funds.
This rally is all propped up by sentiment. Once this air leaks out, the bulls will face a chain liquidation.
I’m confident in this short position.
The next script is simple: if it dares to rebound to test resistance at 2450-2470, I will continue to roll and add shorts.
If it turns down directly and breaks below the previous low of 2369, the abyss below is wide open.
The bulls are still dreaming of a bull comeback, but Hei Mao has already set the pocket formation in advance.
$BTC
$ZEC
#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ I am Cige, shorting ETH at the 2536 level, the logic is very straightforward.
First, let's talk about the technical side. The 2536 level is right in the dense trapped zone from the previous decline and also the resistance level for this weak rebound. You see, when the market dips slightly, ETH falls faster than anyone else; when the market rebounds, it feels weak and sluggish. The 4-hour moving averages are still in a bearish alignment, MACD is running below the zero line, and the rebound lacks volume support—it's purely a technical correction, hitting a wall as it goes up.
Now looking at the capital side, this is the most fatal. Previous data shows that Ethereum spot ETFs had weekly outflows exceeding $320 million, with outflows even larger than Bitcoin. Institutions currently have extremely low patience for high Beta assets, and funds are retreating frantically. Coupled with the overall bleeding in the altcoin market and shrinking stablecoin supply, there is simply no incremental capital in the market to provide support.
The macro environment is also tightly suppressing. US September CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations. Although the market is betting on the Fed pausing rate hikes in October, don't forget that a pause does not mean the end of tightening. The high-interest rate stranglehold remains, and US Treasury yields are still high, which continuously suppresses non-yielding crypto assets.
In terms of operation, enter directly near 2536, or add to the short position around 2550 on a rebound. Stop loss must be set above 2650; if volume breaks and holds above this, it means the bearish structure is broken, so admit defeat and exit. The first target is the 2400 round number; if broken, look at 2350, with the ultimate target at 2200. Position size should be controlled between 10% to 15% of total funds, and leverage should not exceed 3x. $ETH #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 Many people still judge Netflix by whether its user base is growing, but the logic has actually changed. It's becoming increasingly difficult to attract new subscribers, and price hikes no longer work because users have become sensitive to subscription prices. The entire streaming industry is narrowing its price increase range. Therefore, the ad-supported plan for Netflix is not just a cheaper tier, but an attempt to tap into the much larger wallet of advertisers.
If advertising takes off, Netflix can earn two streams of revenue simultaneously: one from user subscriptions and one from brand advertising, with the potential to increase ARPU. Currently, the ad-supported plan has contributed to over 60% of new registrations in some markets, and the number of advertisers has clearly grown. The company’s 2026 advertising revenue target is about $3 billion. $xNFLX The day before yesterday (October 19), the US $BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $526.7 million in a single day, the strongest in nearly a month. But looking closer, BlackRock's IBIT alone attracted $665.2 million, while Fidelity's FBTC had an outflow of $83.6 million, and Grayscale's GBTC had an outflow of $54.9 million. This is not a market-wide blind rush, but rather a "relocation" of funds concentrating into IBIT, with institutions repositioning.
By today (October 21), this positive sentiment is still fermenting. Many worry the bull market is over, while others fear missing out. But the market is honest: mainstream coins are oscillating, altcoins are not following. The single-day ETF data is just "previous events"; a one-day inflow does not indicate a trend reversal, only inflows lasting more than three consecutive days are meaningful. Today's market core remains structural rebalancing, not a collective charge.
In response, do not chase highs. Large-scale positive sentiment after a prolonged decline is most prone to inducing false rallies. Funds are concentrating into BTC, altcoin support remains weak (e.g., $ZEC and others show no improvement, bearish logic continues). Locking in profits, securing capital, and waiting for pullback confirmation is more comfortable than rushing in now. Don't mistake "seat switching" for a market rescue; watch for sustained ETF activity and beware of spikes. $ETH $ZEC Early Session Volatility Observation: Signs of Price Control Under Thin Liquidity
Observing ZEC over the past month, the repeated price surges between 6–9 AM Beijing time are hard to explain as mere coincidence. During this period, European and American funds are mostly resting, the Asian early session order book is thin, and order depth is insufficient, so a small amount of capital can push the price, producing a "leveraging small force to move a thousand pounds" effect.
Previously, the price rose from 900 to 1699 mainly driven by a short squeeze: shorts were forced to cover by buying, fueling the rally. Now, with fewer cheap short positions in the market, the short squeeze momentum is insufficient. If the main players want to maintain the price and avoid a deep drop, they choose to support it during the Asian early session with the thinnest liquidity, which costs less and more easily creates a strong appearance.
Therefore, the early session surge looks more like a price control rhythm rather than a pure demand explosion. Some speculate "short during the day, long in the early session," but this is a mechanical application of a pattern: under thin order books, spikes, slippage, and reverse fluctuations are more severe. Going forward, focus should be on whether the early session surge can sustain, whether short positions are accumulating again, and whether transaction depth and spot support align, rather than just watching the time period. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 If a position of 10,000 U suddenly turns into 140,000 U, would you first take a screenshot or first suspect you misread it? 🫧 Recently, while reviewing my trading journal, I found that the most valuable moments to review are never about how much was earned, but whether the moments of "correct direction and perfect timing" can be replicated. This LAB case is very typical: opening price 0.72246, borrowing 220,000 LAB to sell and exchange for about 158,000 U, the price slid all the way down to 0.04047, then buying back the same amount of coins with about 8,900 U to return the loan, with a price difference close to 150,000 U, and the principal barely moved. The first reaction is to suspect data fabrication, which is normal because the numbers are too beautiful, too perfect to be true. But breaking it down, the trade was not on "LAB will rise," but on "LAB will fall deeply enough." What was really amplified was the position size, not the rate of return itself. There is an easily overlooked point here: being able to borrow 220,000 LAB means the pool's chips and lending depth allowed it at that time; the price dropping from 0.72 to 0.04 means selling pressure and sentiment had already become fragile to a certain extent. In other words, this trade profited from the collapse of sentiment, not from exceptional insight. Looking at the bigger market, BTC and ETH have been cautious recently, altcoins have lower tolerance for errors, and capital's patience for highly volatile small coins is shortening. In this environment, shorting small coins is indeed tempting in terms of odds, but the reverse risk is equally steep: once borrowing costs rise or a short squeeze rebound occurs, the same 10,000 U could be quickly wiped out in one direction. Slightly bullish Yesterday still hoarding SOL, today directly liquidated all positions!
SkyAI, which once held over 2 million SOL, has now sold all of its SOL, leaving about $223.8 million in cash on the books.
What's more interesting is that the company plans to use up to about $201.3 million to repurchase shares and warrants at $3 per share, covering up to 95% of the related categories.
But it's not that simple.
Bastion Trading, which holds nearly 10% of the shares, objected to the repurchase plan, demanding a higher offer and an independent review of the SOL sale. The company had previously wanted to keep the SOL price above $100 as a condition for the repurchase, but this condition was later removed.
The most thought-provoking aspects of this situation are three questions:
① Why did the treasury strategy of heavily hoarding SOL turn around so quickly?
② Is the company selling coins to repurchase stock to improve capital efficiency, or to provide an exit for shareholders?
③ If listed companies start recalculating their coin hoarding accounts, will other SOL treasury companies face the same test?
Of course, a strategic shift by one company does not mean the entire SOL ecosystem has problems. This large-scale sell-off has been completed, and what’s more worth watching next are the actions of other treasury companies and the market’s real capacity to absorb SOL.
What the crypto world fears most is not that someone is selling coins, but that you are still betting according to old logic while others have already changed the game.
$SOL #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
Reviewing this round of $BTC movement, I am more inclined to believe: the bottom was identified several months ago.
The maximum drawdown in this cycle is about -54%, which is clearly different from the historical bear market drops of -75% or even deeper. If we still measure the present with the old cycle's yardstick, insisting on waiting for a "complete replay" of a deep drop, what we might get is not a buying opportunity but a misjudgment of the market structure change.
Cycles shift gears; history only rhymes, it does not repeat. Focusing on the rearview mirror to find the bottom makes it easy to miss the turning point ahead. #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 $奈飞Q3营收增速虽然放缓，但核心看点是广告业务放量+涨价带来利润率提升。广告套餐的付费转化持续向好，叠加老套餐提价的滞后红利，利润端大概率超预期。营收可能贴近指引，但EPS更容易跑出惊喜，我看好本次财报超预期 $NFLX At the start, he didn't dare to go all in; after the breakout, he couldn't resist chasing the long; when the news fluctuated, he closed the long position. @BTC星辰 The most genuine conflict in this situation is not "bullish or bearish," but whether, after admitting the bottom hasn't been confirmed, one can still hold onto their position and exit rules. In the end, he chose to exit first and wait for another opportunity, not mistaking a rebound for a reversal. First, let's look at Micron. He had previously focused on entering around 880, and in this session believed that level had been reached, so the position could be observed; but since the daily chart hadn't stabilized yet, he was initially only willing to test with a small position, unwilling to press in with a large one. A cheap price is one thing, but whether the trend can hold is another. 900 became the condition for him to chase the rally later. He saw the price pull back to this line and chased a Micron position on the spot, reasoning that it's better to wait for the right side to develop before chasing, rather than constantly catching falling knives in a downtrend. However, after chasing in, the price fell again, and he quickly switched to break-even management and at one point closed this position. This process shouldn't be reduced to just "chase after breaking 900" while ignoring the risk of breakout failure afterward. For those who entered earlier around 880, his management advice was different: with a relatively favorable cost, they could continue to observe the previous highs, first at 903, then around 927–928, while protecting profits with break-even or trailing stops. Positions with different costs cannot uniformly apply the same "hold on" rule; chasing positions and low-level test positions inherently bear different drawdowns. Next, let's look at SanDisk. 1320 was the long position he had placed the night before, but in this session repeatedly stated, the priceETF single-day inflows hit the highest in the month, but BTC fell below 82,000: Money didn't enter the market
On Monday, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $527 million, marking the largest single-day inflow in nearly a month.
Among them, BlackRock IBIT alone absorbed $665 million, while Fidelity and Grayscale actually saw outflows as a hedge—money came in, but concentrated in one fund.
However, the price didn't respond: the high was $83,075, then slid below $81,400.
On the same day, Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of $103 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of losses—funds only recognize Bitcoin, not the sector.
On the macro side, headwinds: crude oil surged to a five-year high of $111, 10-year US Treasury yields at 5.13%, and South Korea's Kospi dropped 3.7%.
Options desk vote: Deribit bearish trades are more than twice bullish ones, with the 80,000 put most sought after; QCP points out that if the stock market continues deleveraging, the 80,000 support will be tested.
My view: This is not a bottom-fishing signal, but a "single fund propping up the market"—inflows concentrated in IBIT alone, and the price not rising is proof; continue to observe without chasing.
Invalidation point: If within three trading days ETFs have continuous net inflows, multiple issuers simultaneously recover, and BTC closes above 83,300 with volume, then I admit I was wrong.
Will the 80,000 hold, or will this wave of ETF inflows fizzle out first?
$BTC $IBIT $ETH
#Bitcoin #ETFLong-term optimism does not mean buying every dip
Being optimistic about BTC and the crypto market's long-term direction does not mean every short-term pullback is worth buying. Long-term logic is realized over time, while short-term prices rely on capital support; if buying pressure doesn't continue, no matter how strong the narrative, the decline is hard to stop.
From October 12 to 16, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $228.4 million, and ETH had a net outflow of $320.1 million. Capital has yet to signal sustained accumulation, and ETH's market cap is smaller with even more outflows. It's too early to turn optimistic based on the rebound alone.
Another suppressing factor is the expectation of a rate hike in December. If another 25 basis points are added, cash and bonds become more attractive, making it harder for the crypto market to attract incremental funds.
Therefore, the short-term outlook remains bearish: continue to be cautious if ETFs keep bleeding; if BTC and ETH show continuous inflows with support on pullbacks, then reassess. If I had to guess which will see ETF funds return first, I lean towards BTC—stronger liquidity, institutional recognition, and consensus usually make it the first choice when funds flow back.
Look at development for the long term, and capital flow for the short term. Be bullish on the future but respect where the money is going right now. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 🚨 ETF fund flows diverge, how much longer can the BTC rebound last? Let's start with a possibly unpleasant fact: ETF fund flows are changing, but this does not mean the selling pressure has ended. Looking at BTC, ETH, and SOL together can easily lead to misjudging the current market. 📊 $BTC: Funds are still being absorbed; the key is whether 81,823 can be reclaimed Yesterday, Fidelity's FBTC saw a net outflow of $83.63 million, while BlackRock's IBIT had a net inflow of $665 million, driving aConclusion first: $DOOD surged from 0.00133 to 0.00235 tonight, up 78% in 8 hours, with a trading volume of about 110 million USD. The overall market barely moved, so this is not random.
Looking at the 4H chart: the candle at 20:00 last night opened at 0.00153, surged to 0.00227, and closed at 0.00213 — the upper shadow wiped out nearly half the gains, indicating someone was testing the selling pressure above. Volume jumped from 2.9 million to 20.8 million, a 7x increase.
Then the 00:00 candle: opened at 0.00213, peaked at 0.00265, and closed at 0.00235, rising another 10%, with volume holding high at 23.27 million. The two surges are 4 hours apart with almost no pullback in between — this is controlled capital accumulating, not retail investors.
Looking at the 16:00 candle: the day's low was 0.00133, high 0.00155, volatility under 20%, a typical accumulation range.
Path: narrow accumulation at 16:00 → volume spike test at 20:00 → continued accumulation at 00:00. No comfortable buying points for those who missed out.
This pattern usually leads to two paths the next day: a high open followed by a drop to shake out floating coins, or locked positions with continued rise. $DOOD’s 24-hour volume is 110 million USD, enough ammunition; volume and price in the first 30 minutes after open are key signals.
What do you think about this move? Will it continue to rise the next day or undergo a shakeout?Review at 7 AM, the average transaction price of BTC was 82,600, a level I've been watching for three days. Yesterday, BTC closed at 82,813, up only 1.0% in 24 hours, but ETH has already reached 2,451, doubling that increase; even the hotspot ENA rose by +5.3%. This is not a broad rally, but a structural shift caused by funds flowing from BTC to ETH and altcoins. My judgment is: the funds entering BTC in the 82,000 to 83,000 range now have very little room to profit, with real trading volume disconnected from price, making it easy to get stuck in sideways movement; on the contrary, as long as ETH holds support at 2,400, its cost-performance ratio is clearly higher. I reduced half of my position on the order placed at 82,400, and the remaining funds are gradually shifting to ETH. Currently, ETH accounts for 40% of my portfolio, neither full nor heavy position.
Another signal that caught my attention is Switzerland's approval of the first Bitcoin ETF. Many will shout about the positive news everywhere, but what I see is a buffer brought by financialization: institutional funds entering reduce volatility, making BTC increasingly like large-scale gold. This is good for trend traders, but bad news for those looking to make quick money.
#OKXProphet #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Strong wind level eight｜Netflix's growth slows down, advertising business, could it be the next breakthrough?
The streaming giant Netflix once relied crazily on new member growth to boost its stock price, but now user growth has clearly slowed down, and there is not much room left just by increasing subscription fees.
The ad-supported plan is exactly Netflix's new breakthrough story.
The ad-supported plan has accounted for 60% of new subscribers on the platform, the number of people Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive basis for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.91%, with the first-level pairing scale about $987; based on a 10,000 scale, this level only covers about 10%. Small orders can probe, but large volume must look at deeper levels.
The first-level positive basis for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.61%, with the first-level pairing scale about $994; based on a 10,000 scale, this level only covers about 10%. Set an upper limit based on capacity.
$SOL marked basis is positive, but the buy near sell far first-level quote is already inverted. Near-month annualized +2.86%, far-month annualized +0.33%, near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +0.07%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.1%. Inversion means the actual marked basis cannot be obtained.#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ I am Cige, and the FOMC meeting from October 27 to 28 is approaching. The Federal Reserve has now entered a pre-meeting quiet period. Looking at the data in the chart, the market is extremely optimistic. The latest pricing shows that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged exceeds 80%. Everyone thinks there will be a pause in rate hikes in October. But there is a huge hidden risk here. Both the CPI and PPI in September exceeded expectations, and inflationarThree Tokens, Three Destinies: BNB, HYPE, and OKB Each Take Their Own Path
Though all are platform tokens, their current situations are completely different.
$BNB acts like a ballast stone. Priced around $720, it is anchored by the gas consumption and buyback expectations of the X Layer, plus CZ continuously pushing BNB mobile towards the ecosystem entry point—this is more like pricing the ecosystem's depth rather than an emotional premium. It has enough defense but lacks offense, limited room for pullback, and limited explosive power, making it suitable for steady holding.
$HYPE is a deflationary machine with income verification. Yesterday, another 11,300 tokens were burned, totaling 49.63 million tokens burned, accounting for 4.96% of the total supply, equivalent to about $3.9 billion; the protocol income of $69.94 million over 30 days goes entirely into the burn pool. At the $78 level, it is the only one among the three that simultaneously has ongoing deflation and real cash flow verification, making it the most solid.
$OKB currently lacks its own story. The funding rate is -0.0014%, with bears slightly dominant; open interest is only $30.7 million, at the 30th percentile over three weeks, showing weak willingness to open positions. Its correlation with BTC is 0.85, and its trend basically follows the overall market. Unless an ecosystem transformation brings catalysts, it will likely continue to oscillate and lag behind.
One defends, one is solid, one waits—three roles in the portfolio, each performing its duty.@SpongeBobTradFi The clearest judgment in this situation is that Sandisk, after a rebound to the upper boundary, continues to look for shorting opportunities. But his bearish view does not mean he expects an immediate crash: the baseline scenario remains a range-bound movement around 1300–1400, with 1250 being just an extreme downside scenario. What is truly worth remembering are the entry cost, staggered profit-taking, and the repeatedly emphasized stop loss at 1420. He believes that rebounding and shorting are not mutually exclusive. Since the price is expected to rebound from a low point, there is no need to rush to short at the lower boundary; waiting for the price to approach the upper boundary again, with the same defensive position, leaves a shorter stop loss distance. The trade here is the pullback from the upper boundary of the range, not because the stock is considered overbought and thus assumed it cannot rise further. The specific plan adjusts as the price progresses. Earlier, he mentioned trying a partial position short around 1340–1360, then reserving the remaining planned position for 1380–1400; later, the focus is more concentrated around 1390 and above, aiming to keep the average cost between above 1385 and below 1400. These are arrangements for different stages, not a requirement for readers to place orders at all prices simultaneously, nor to copy the upper entry plan after a drop. "Half position" should not be understood as putting up half of one's total capital. He explains it as usually trading ten units, but this time starting with five units, referring to half of the regular trading size. If the initial cost is lower and there is no suitable rebound afterward, half of the planned position can be used to catch the pullback; if there is already a cost around 1370–1375, there is no need to mechanically add positions at 1390 just to fill the quota. Missing the right position, well🌐 US CPI year-on-year for September is 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6% (CryptoTicker).
🛢️ After Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal, oil prices climbed back above $100 (CryptoTicker).
🏦 With inflation and oil prices both high, the market is more cautious about the Fed's next move.
🧮 Actual inflation is 0.1 percentage points higher than expected, not a big gap, but the trend is on the hotter side (calculated by myself).
I'm not sure if BTC will be more affected by macro factors; I might be wrong.
📍 The points I'm watching:
• The Fed's stance before the next rate meeting
• Whether oil prices can stay above $100
• BTC at the $80,000 level
Which do you think has a bigger impact on BTC, inflation data or oil prices?
$BTC $ETH $OKB
$BTC $ETH #CanBTCHold80K
#CanBTCReboundLast "This week, leave the answers to the calendar 📅"
Don't rely on assumptions this week; the schedule is very straightforward: On 10/21, watch SOL's Alpenglow mainnet launch; on 10/28, wait for the FOMC, with the market pricing in a 64% chance of a rate hike. These are the only two beats to follow—don't add your own drum 🥁
BTC: This week, focus on just one thing—holding 80,000 and waiting for the FOMC outcome. 84,000 didn't hold last week, 80,000 was caught twice, with a vacuum in between. ETFs saw a net outflow of 228 million last week, no new stories yet, and 64% pressure looming. I lean towards a range of 80,000–84,000 for choppy trading. Holding is fine; chasing highs is not 😌
ETH: More passive this week. No upgrades, no ETF inflows, and 320 million withdrawn over the week. Direction basically follows BTC's lead. 2,313 was last week's low and is this week's defense line; if broken, look to 2,250. If you want to get in, don't reach out halfway up the mountain—wait for a discount 🫠
SOL: The only real catalyst this week. On 10/21, Alpenglow goes live on mainnet, with confirmation time reduced from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. It might be hyped before the upgrade; after the upgrade, watch out for "sell the fact"; the big drop in TPS that day is just a change in statistical method, not a network failure—don't be scared off by screenshots. 100 is the bottom line 💪
Strategy: Hold BTC, wait for ETH to drop, only bet on SOL on 10/21, don't bet beyond 10/22. Calendar trading: less imagination, more discipline ✨Early this morning SpaceX launched again, sending the Bandwagon-5 rideshare mission into orbit from Florida aboard Falcon 9. Launches are coming fast and furious; this company's pace is truly impressive.
But I want to remind those watching pre-IPO stocks: a good company and a good price are two different things. The market is currently extremely enthusiastic about star companies that haven't gone public yet, but when lock-up periods expire and shares flood the market, things can get ugly. New stock shares are unlocked in batches, and the highest sentiment often coincides with the smallest float and the easiest price to push. When the lock-up gates open one by one, the story remains the same, but the people holding the bags have changed.
Don't mistake a rocket's thrust for a stock price's momentum. Before going to sleep, let's review the actual situation of BTC and ETH, as well as the precautions to take.
First, let's talk about BTC.
Figure 1 is a 1H screenshot of BTC. You can see that BTC has formed a complete 5-wave upward movement since rebounding from 79700. Today it rebounded to a high of 83420. The strong resistance for BTC is at 83850. Due to the easing of the US-Iran situation earlier today, it first rose, but after the rumors were dispelled, it fell again and is currently consolidating around 82700.
Whether the news is true or false doesn't matter. The clear 5-wave rise on the 1H chart and the visible structure both indicate that BTC is indeed rebounding. However, once it reached the resistance level and found an excuse, it was pushed down. So this wave of range rebound is basically over. Even if the upcoming report confirms the news and BTC directly surges to 83850, what I said still applies.
Want to break through? Then forget it.
Figure 2 is a 1H screenshot of ETH. Comparing Figure 1 and Figure 2, it's clear that ETH is quite weak on the 1H intraday chart. ETH's first rebound reached 2493, the second only reached 2445, and today it hasn't surpassed 2493, only reaching 2478. Overall, ETH's structure is not open, making a breakthrough even more difficult. So stay calm and don't chase highs, especially around 2493.
This is the completed rebound situation.
What happens next? Since it can't break through, it will of course continue to retest the white 4H uptrend line. The whole screen is buzzing with one piece of good news: Micron is holding a technical seminar the day after tomorrow, discussing HBM, DRAM, NAND, and Nvidia is also working on customized HBM. The narrative sounds great—AI needs memory, storage is selling shovels, just blindly buy.
But I don't buy into this. For this short, I heavily bet on storage and have held on tight. The reasoning is simple: when a sector's valuation has already priced in the "explosive demand over the next three years," any good news from a seminar is just handing the microphone to the next buyer. What really matters isn't how loud the demand story is told, but whether the price acknowledges it. Today, as soon as the US market opened, storage still led the decline.
Stories are stories, positions are positions. $BTCThe Cost of High Leverage: Maji's ETH Long Position Review
Amid global market volatility, Maji's ETH long position has become a high-leverage risk example. Holding 1,600 ETH longs with an average entry price of $2407.59, the position is worth about $3.852 million, leveraged 28.64 times on the full position, with a liquidation price at $2370.86 and available margin already depleted to zero; the overall unrealized loss is $36.9275 million, with a loss of $5.3091 million in the past 30 days. The danger lies not in the loss figures but in the zero available margin combined with high leverage—any slight dip in ETH could trigger liquidation. From big profits to deep losses, the most practical lesson is: always consider the worst-case scenario first when trading.
Summary of the live broadcast:
1. 28x full position leverage compresses error tolerance space extremely.
2. Margin depleted to zero means the liquidation price is the lifeline.
3. Unrealized loss nearly $37 million, monthly loss over $5.3 million.
4. From big profits to deep losses often just one counter-trend move away.
5. No matter how large the position value, it does not equal a safety cushion.
6. Calculate the liquidation price first, then discuss target prices.
7. Full position mode is not a free pass to avoid liquidation.
8. The market can wait, but principal cannot be restored.
9. ETF outflows disturb rebounds; risk control must be independent of opinions.
10. Staying alive means having the chance for the next round.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Netflix will release its Q3 earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 20, with the core focus on two growth curves: the basic subscription business + ad-supported plans.
From a logical perspective, Netflix has shifted from relying solely on new user growth to a dual engine of price increases + ad monetization. The low-cost ad-supported membership plan can retain budget-sensitive users and reduce account sharing losses, while also opening a second revenue In 20 trading days, five upstream mining power stocks all dropped 18%–32%, while the four major buyers of mining power remained flat.
VRT fell from a 52-week high near 380 to 206, down 17.9% in twenty days.
On 10/15, the volume was 12.92 million shares, 2.7 times the 20-day average volume.
In one month, it closed above the average price for 16 days, only turning to losses together last week.
The other four in the group also dropped 24%–32%, none spared.
All five closed below the 20-day average trading price.
I think this is not a demand kill, but a kill of the certainty that "demand turns into profit."
As long as buyers don’t collapse, mining power is still being purchased; what’s falling is the future capacity premium, not current orders.
The four buyers’ 20-day price changes didn’t exceed 7%, they haven’t stopped at all.
In the same industry chain, upstream is bleeding, buyers are just sipping tea and watching the show.
The market first cuts off the segment furthest from cash flow: electricity, data centers, new mining power clouds.
Upstream is funded by expansion money; once orders are price-pressed and payment terms extended, profits disappear first.
I don’t catch falling knives: if VRT can’t stand back above the 20-day average trading price of 236.05, any rebound is just a commission.
Before this Friday’s close, if daily volume doesn’t shrink back to 4.86 million shares, it means some are still rushing to exit.
Do you think capex is truly shifting, or is the market just trying to cool down the overheated upstream?
$VRT $CRWV $PLTR
#AI may push GDP to 44 trillion, can investments pay off?
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heardA drop in US stocks doesn't automatically mean crypto must fall too. Three factors could explain this divergence: 📉 1. Short Squeeze: Falling prices may have pushed traders into short positions. When BTC reversed, short liquidations accelerated the rebound. 💰 2. Different Capital Flows: Crypto can attract dip buyers even when traditional markets weaken. BTC-specific demand and ETF flows may matter more than the Nasdaq's immediate move. 📊 3. Technical Rebound: After selling pressure, BTC may rETFs are withdrawing, candlesticks are bouncing, and this kind of "reverse script" is the most challenging.😅
From October 12 to 16, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $229 million, and the Ethereum spot ETF outflowed $320 million; on October 19, the Bitcoin ETF had a single-day outflow of $139 million.💸 Institutional funds retreating is not speculation, it's a visible withdrawal on the books.
But $BTC bounced from around 80,000 to 83,000, now tugging around 82,000. Money has left, so why is the price still rising? The key is not new buying inflows, but short covering pushing the price up.🔁 Ultimately, it's still a battle among existing funds; once shorts withdraw, the market lightens. Without incremental funds taking over, this rebound is like "borrowed fire" that won't last long.🔥
Above 83,000 is a previous dense trapped position area; without enough real money, breaking through is easy to fall back; 80,000 is a psychological defense line. If ETFs continue to outflow and break below 80,000, it may trigger long deleveraging, which is closer to a real clearing.⚠️
In terms of operations, don't be tempted to chase highs by the red market.🙅 When the rebound nears resistance, consider reducing positions and taking profits; wait for incremental funds and structural signals to confirm before talking offense.📉📈#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 The first time I saw that set of backtest numbers, my blood pressure went up—not from excitement, but from anger. +838% returns (to be confirmed), 3-year max drawdown 9.81% (to be confirmed), profit factor 2.47 (to be confirmed), win rate 62.32% (to be confirmed). I threw the screenshot into the group chat, and the replies were all "Give me the strategy"—what annoyed me was that nine out of ten people only focused on the +838% column, like they were looking at a lottery winning list. Honestly, I used to be like that too. Until I paid my dues a few times and realized: in backtest screenshots, the returns column is the least trustworthy. It's the most deceptive—just tweak the sample a bit, adjust parameters slightly, and the return curve can look straighter than the market. The real numbers that speak are the other four. And the order can't be wrong. First, the win rate 62%—it's just frequency, not character. 62% sounds pretty accurate, right? I used to think so too. But win rate alone is just a makeup artist. If your win rate is 90%, but you average earning 1 unit and losing 10 units, you'll break even in the long run; if your win rate is 40%, but you average earning 5 units and losing 1 unit, you'll still win easily. Win rate only answers one question: how often do you guess right. It doesn't answer how much you earn when you guess right—that's the real lifeline of the account. Now when I look at win rate, I ask one question: is it paired with your profit-loss ratio? If not, 62% and 26% are no different, both are half-finished products. Second, profit factor 2.47—this is the most honest number in the entire screenshot. Profit factor = total$SPCX #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC
SpaceX's first earnings report unboxing! 75% of people bet on a rise, but I advise you to stay calm first
The moment of truth is almost here. SpaceX's first full quarterly earnings report since going public will be released tonight (after market close on October 20). Currently, in the prediction market, 75% of people have bet "Yes" that the price will rise tomorrow. It looks very enthusiastic, but let me pour some cold water and analyze the logic:
First, what exactly should we look at in this earnings report?
Don't be fooled by the rockets they launch; the real trump card is Starlink. Starlink is currently SpaceX's "cash cow". Whether it is profitable and whether the profits exceed expectations directly determines the stock price floor. As for Starship, that's a pure money-burning "gold-eating beast" and part of the storytelling. As long as Starship doesn't have major issues and progress is normal, the market can tolerate it; if it explodes or is delayed, that would be a big disaster.
Second, why is it a bit risky that 75% bet on a rise?
This is the first earnings report after the IPO, and Wall Street's expectations have already been maxed out (commonly called front-running). There's an old trick in the US stock market: a good earnings report doesn't necessarily mean the stock will rise. If Starlink's data is slightly worse or executives don't boast enough during the conference call, funds will immediately use the good news as an opportunity to sell, causing an instant "sell the news" effect.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins $CORE countdown has just over a month left, 34 major exchanges have delisted it leaving only 13 exchanges. Such an obvious signal and yet some are still hyping to add positions. The bulls are causing trouble again! Are they afraid of their own liquidation? They’re hyping for someone to take the bag again. The initiators have already run off with 20 billion, the team hasn’t updated any documents on-chain for 8 months, the token has been reissued, full of vulnerabilities, and yet people are still calling to bottom buy? Are those calling to bottom buy thinking everyone in crypto is a fool?Don't be fooled by the rebound! There's no new money in the market 💸
Just glanced at the data, and it chilled me halfway:
📉$BTC spot ETF net outflow of $94.94 million in 24 hours
📉$ETH ETF even worse, outflow of $87.51 million
📉7-day cumulative BTC ETF outflow of $292.6 million
📉Stablecoin total market cap shrank by $165 million overnight
What does this mean? The liquidity inside is being drained out, existing funds are just circulating back and forth, pumping the price only to cover shorts, and after the rise, it has to come back down. Without continuous growth in stablecoins and continuous net inflows in ETFs, the rebound is just a sham.
I only watch for two real signals:
✅ ETF net inflow for 3 consecutive days
✅ Stablecoin market cap turning upward again
Don't get carried away until you see these two. 🧊#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 Irish law enforcement agencies today reportedly recovered/cracked a BTC wallet belonging to Irish drug dealer Clifton Collins, then transferred 500 BTC ($41.5 million) from it to Coinbase Prime.
1. Clifton Collins purchased 6,000 BTC in 2011-2012 using funds from selling marijuana, when BTC was priced around $5, with an estimated cost of about $30,000.
2. In 2016, he split these 6,000 BTC into 12 wallets and printed the private keys on A4 paper, hiding them in a fishing rod storage box in his rental property.
3. In 2017, he was arrested for drug trafficking and sentenced to 5 years in prison. Presumably, after incarceration, he couldn’t pay rent, and the landlord cleared out everything in the rental, including the storage box containing the private keys.
4. In 2020, the Irish court ordered the forfeiture of these 6,000 BTC. Of course, without the private keys, these BTC could not be moved at that time.
5. In 2026, Irish law enforcement, in cooperation with Europol, recovered/cracked part of Clifton Collins’ wallets. Currently, 5 wallets have been recovered/cracked, and a total of 2,500 BTC ($207.5 million) have been transferred to Coinbase Prime.📉 Don't rush to call it a reversal on the rebound
This wave of rise looks lively on the surface, but behind it, it seems more like contract leverage funds pushing it. Institutions on the ETF side are retreating, active buying hasn't returned, and the market's foundation is not solid.
💸 ETF continues to see net outflows, institutional demand is weakening, and long-term selling pressure still hangs over. If there is a sharp drop first in the short term, it might trigger an oversold corrective rebound, but that is a repair, not a return of funds.
⚖️ Now the battle between bulls and bears is intense, with the overall trend leaning weak. Mistaking the rebound for a reversal is easy to misjudge. A more reasonable characterization is: a short-term repair driven by leverage, with institutional funds not yet turning back. 👀 Next, watch ETF flows and volume, don't just look at the red and green candlesticks. #ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Different paths for the two storage giants: SanDisk waits for a pullback, Micron looks for catalysts
Late-night review of $SNDK and $MU, both are rising, but the drivers are completely different.
SanDisk's core is "lock-in." Nearly $100 billion in long-term contracts provide a buffer during the down cycle, but profit elasticity mainly comes from price increases. Once NAND prices weaken, valuation pressure will quickly appear. My judgment: long-term contracts as a floor do not equal unlimited elasticity; there has already been a significant rise, so it is not advisable to chase at the current level. Wait for a pullback before considering entry.
Micron's logic is stronger, driven by AI computing power's rigid demand for HBM. Last week it was mistakenly sold off due to a domestic storage manufacturer's technical breakthrough, but institutions generally believe it is hard to touch HBM's core market share; the technical seminar on October 21 focuses on the HBM roadmap, constituting a short-term strong catalyst. This stock can be lightly bought on pullbacks.
In summary: SanDisk is more defensive and long-term, Micron is more aggressive and elastic; both are optimistic but with different rhythms. SanDisk waits for a correction, Micron has low points for light buying on pullbacks. Don't rush in just because of a rise; understand the logic first before acting. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点#ETF持续流出，BTC反弹能否延续？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 $OKB 最近最值得注意的，不是某次拉升，而是它越来越像一只“被时间拉长”的资产：大部分时间横盘、缓慢抬升，随后突然来一段急跌制造恐慌，半个月后又悄悄回到原点。这种节奏反复出现，本身就是信号——它正在筛掉想靠一波行情暴富的短线客。 “短鸟”这类持有者的仓位结构，加上做市方并非傻子，决定了想在其中轻松冲浪赚大钱并不现实。尤其当项目选择走合规路线之后，暴涨暴跌式的操作空间被进一步压缩。换句话说，$OKB 已经不再需要靠短期暴拉来刷存在感，老徐坚持合规路径，本身就证明他不是短视玩家。他甚至把 $OKB 与 $BTC 放在时间维度上做对比，这间接说明 $OKB 不打算走短线叙事。 真正被市场低估的一点是：$OKB 若想真正走强，关键不在币价图形，而在 Xlayer 生态能否长起来。如果它无法从“平台币属性”切换到“公链属性”，那么在当前公链普遍半死不活的环境下，失败概率并不低。这是一场属性迁移的赌局，而不是一次简单的波段机会。 可引用的判断是：$OKB 的波动正在从“情绪驱动”转向“生态验证驱动”，急跌后回归只是表象，Xlayer 的进展才是决定它能否摆脱平台币天花板的那把钥匙。$BTC 的长Jamie Dimon, who called it a "scam" in 2017, now has the asset management division under his leadership including Bitcoin in its "highest returning asset over the next decade" forecast.
Morgan Asset Management's October 19, 2027 long-term capital market assumptions report includes Bitcoin in its forecast for the first time: an annualized compound return of 10% over the next 10–15 years, higher than the US stock market's 7.5%, gold's 5.5%, and US bonds' 5.6%–6.6%.
But it's not blindly bullish: the pessimistic scenario assumes about -10% annualized, optimistic about 17%, with a volatility assumption of 55% (three times that of the US stock market). Bitcoin has not yet been included in the portfolio model and is positioned as a "speculative asset, a hedge against monetary easing," not a risk diversification tool.
My view: this report serves as a reference anchor for global pensions and financial advisors for ten-year allocations. Bitcoin appearing for the first time in a "serious forecast table" from a top Wall Street asset manager is more significant than the 10% figure itself. But don't misinterpret it as a call to buy—it has zero allocation in the portfolio.
$BTC
#JPMorganPredictsBitcoinBestPerformingAssetOverNextDecade #BTC #比特币BTC, ETH & SOL Are Rising Together — So Why Am I Still Hesitant to Turn Bullish? 👀
BTC at $81,991, ETH at $2,410, and SOL at $105.18. All three are flashing green, but the bigger picture tells a different story.
Last week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs recorded combined net outflows of approximately $549 million, while SOL ETFs also saw outflows. That’s why I’m treating this move as emotional recovery rather than a confirmed trend reversal.#DailyOrbit This move is really a bit outrageous.
In June, this big player directly leveraged to bottom-fish around $ETH 1647, throwing in about $30 million. Holding on all the way until now, he finally got the chance to sell over 12,000 ETH at around $2368 in one go, cashing out nearly $30 million, with a paper profit hitting $8.99 million, which also translates to tens of millions in RMB.
But what’s truly worth noting isn’t how much he made from this ETH wave, but what he did next after making the profit.
Based on his current moves, he didn’t return to BTC, ETH, or other crypto assets; instead, he transferred about $20 million into DEX and started going long on crude oil. Currently, the combined long positions on $CL and $BRENTOIL have reached $22.4 million, and the positions are still increasing.
This is interesting.
A large fund that just took nearly $9 million profit from ETH turns around and shifts focus to crude oil. Is this a move to preemptively hedge against short-term risks in the crypto market, or a bet on rising global inflation expectations and continued strength in energy prices?
Of course, a whale’s moves don’t necessarily indicate market direction, but this kind of capital shift from crypto assets to traditional commodities is definitely worth watching.
What I’m more interested in next is whether he can hold on to this crude oil long position.
After all, what’s truly worth paying attention to is never just how much he made, but where he puts the money after making it.📊 Farside data: BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of about $228.4 million last week in October, with the outflow rate slowing by about 66%, but it still hasn't returned to net inflow (crypto.news).
🔷 During the same period, ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $320 million; combined BTC and ETH outflows totaled about $548.5 million, with ETH accounting for about 58% (my own calculation).
🔄 In comparison: on October 13, BTC ETF had a single-day net inflow of about $175.6 million (CryptoTicker), showing a rapid change in fund direction.
🕒 Different institutions have slightly different statistical calibers and dates.
Slowing outflows do not equal buying returning; I'm not sure, might be a misinterpretation.
📍 What I'm watching:
• Whether the ETF turns to net inflow on the next trading day
• $83,000: only after breaking through this is the rebound confirmed
What do you think—does it take several consecutive days of net inflow to consider ETF buying truly back?
$BTC $ETH #BTCETHETFOutflows
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#CanBTCReboundLast 🔀 Three movements tonight: one bounces, one stays still, one falls back
$DOGE 0.08037, up 1.66, meme follows 🐶
Supply is unlimited, following the low-fee payment and community tipping path. Tonight, risk appetite returns and meme funds flow back, DOGE bounced over 1 point. But it needs continuous attention driven by community transfer volume or external figures; a single-day bounce does not equal a sentiment reversal.
$BCH 277.1, up 0.07, almost unchanged ₿
The market and meme are bouncing, BCH is almost flat. Since the BTC fork adopting the big block payment path, there has been no new narrative in recent years. It’s neither abandoned by funds nor touched by anyone, just hanging there moving with BTC’s beta. When the market bounces, it doesn’t follow, indicating this round of funds didn’t go to forked coins.
$GOOGL 342.60, down 1.12, the one moving oppositely 📊
Alphabet tokenized shares fell alone tonight, price follows US stock close. The crypto rebound has little to do with it. With Netflix earnings approaching and advertising business becoming a new focus, the entire tech advertising sector is being re-evaluated. GOOGL is following its own market pricing this round, not crypto sentiment.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点 #奈飞财报在即，广告业务成新看点
3 Reasons Why It Could Exceed Expectations
1. Ad-Supported Plans Are the Biggest Highlight
Low-cost ad-supported memberships are now the main source of new additions. In countries where ad plans have launched, over 60% of new users choose the ad-supported version directly; ad pre-sale commitments have nearly doubled, and the company aims for $3 billion in ad revenue for the full year. If Q3 ad revenue and ARPU (average revenue per user) exceed estimates, it will directly boost profits and slightly beat EPS expectations
2. Cost Control + Layoffs Reduce Expenses, Profit Margins Are Flexible
Netflix is controlling content spending and cutting staff to reduce labor costs, with market expectations for an operating margin of 33.2%. If content amortization and operating expenses are better controlled than expected, EPS can easily slightly exceed 0.82. Additionally, ongoing stock buybacks can also increase earnings per share.
3. Strong Membership Growth in Asia-Pacific Offsets North American Pressure
User churn is rising in the North American market, but subscription growth in the Asia-Pacific region is strong enough to support overall net new membership numbers; combined with membership price increases in multiple countries, this raises average revenue per user and supports the revenue floor. The current market situation perfectly matches the trend I previously shared, and it has accurately validated my long entry points and take-profit points. Since the 15th, I have been signaling to go long, directly long if 790 is not broken. Later, I also added the idea to go long again at 80800. Everyone has seen the market; if you could follow along, you would have gone long from 80000 to 834. I gave hints on where to enter long, where to take profit, and where to add positions. If you missed it, you can only regret it.
On the hourly level, I believe the bottom between 80000-79500 has been confirmed because the previous gap from 80200-79500 has been fully filled. The spike on the 15th pierced into this gap and quickly closed back up. This was firstly to fill the gap and secondly to sweep long stop losses, completing liquidity cleaning. Previously, whenever the price touched above this area, it left a wick, so this bottom is very solid.
On the four-hour level, the MACD has already started forming a golden cross below the zero line. After the price builds a bottom, it will inevitably move toward the upper dense liquidity area to consolidate. The first target is definitely the FVG gap at 843-852. The second target is the triple top at 873. These areas have accumulated many short stop-loss orders. Once the price breaks above the upper edge of the 8452 gap, it is highly likely to surge upward to clear shorts in this area.
For BTC, buy on dips if 82000 holds, with the initial target at the previous high of 834. A breakout will take it directly to the lower edge of the 84300 gap.
For ETH, buy on dips if 2425 holds, with the target at the previous high of 2477. A breakout will take it to 2530. $BTC $ETH 一天里有 5.27 亿美元净进现货产品端，是近一个月最大的一笔。把明细拆开就不那么热闹了：6.65 亿来自同一家发行商，两家老牌产品同期在往外赎。也就是说，这一天的买盘是一家机构的动作，不是整个市场回心转意。同一时间，以太坊那边的产品连续第四天净流出、累计一亿多，价格反而涨了一个多点。价格往上、钱往外，这种组合我见过太多次——它说明的是空头回补，不是新钱进场。谁在买、谁在卖、谁被迫平仓，比涨了几个点重要得多。 历史摆在这儿：2023 年 10 月十年期美债收益率第一次摸到 5%，比特币那会儿在 2.7 万一线横着，真正到 4 万以上那一段路，是等收益率见顶回落之后才走出来的。这次和上次不一样的地方很清楚——现在十年期是 5.14%，利率市场给十二月加息的定价是七成八往上。这不是降息周期的起点，是加息预期还在加码的位置。所以我这一轮押的不是流动性拐点，是有人拿真金白银换筹码这件事本身。 政治这条线连着出三件事，看着没关系，其实是一件事的三面：瑞士的监管批了第一只面向本地散户的现货比特币基金；法国议会对稳定币兑换征税的修正案以一票之差通过；哈萨克斯坦的法院把六家境外平台挡在门外。翻译成钱的【Capital Market Observation】
The attempt to hold above 83000 looks decent, but there was a quiet net outflow of 84 million USDC on the market, making this rally somewhat shaky.
If ETF inflows on Monday are less than 100 million, the price will likely return to the bottom of the range for support. Currently, the market remains stuck between 80k and 83k; without a firm breakout or breakdown on the 4-hour chart, intraday highs face resistance, and the pullback is expected to continue near 80k.
The 80k level has been tested twice recently, with significant buy orders consumed below. The next dip must show volume to support a valid rebound; breaking below 80k would lead to a sharp decline.
Compared to October 18, the total market cap on the market hasn't changed, USDT slightly increased by 44 million, but USDC outflowed 84 million. Based on this trend, Monday's ETF inflow won't be large. Net inflow weaker than 100 million means no capital reversal. A rally needs real money to verify it; without capital support, most rebounds are false breakouts.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ Don't underestimate Netflix too much, even though growth looks weak, it has actually shifted to a new growth path
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins