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#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
US stock market analysis: CPI exploded, rate hike bets doubled, AI leveraged stocks crash first as a warning
As soon as last night's CPI data came out, the market immediately turned sour. September CPI year-on-year surged to 3.7%, core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, all exceeding expectations. Traders instantly raised the probability of an October rate hike from 22% to 49%, and the chance of at least one hike before year-end soared to 95%.
The asset reaction was direct: The US dollar index jumped to 102.75, hitting an 18-month high; the 10-year US Treasury yield surged back above 5.3%; gold and Bitcoin both came under pressure and fell. On the oil side, gasoline rose 7.1%, the energy index overall climbed 5.2%, becoming the biggest driver of inflation.
The hardest hit in the stock market were the highly leveraged AI stocks. Oracle fell 7.8%, CoreWeave plummeted over 11%—this company's bond yields have already shot above 15%, with the market pricing in its inability to hold up. AI server manufacturers Dell and HP were also downgraded by Barclays, falling 11.5% and 7.8% respectively.
Chip stocks were even worse, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hitting a six-day losing streak. Nvidia, AMD, and Micron all declined across the board; CoreWeave’s dual stock and bond sell-off exposed the fragility of the entire AI infrastructure financing chain.
In summary: Inflation is stickier than expected, energy is permeating core services, and rate hike expectations cannot be suppressed in the short term. Highly leveraged AI concept stocks built on debt are the most dangerous.$XAU - $BTC - 消息公布后为何两者均大幅下跌？
今天有三条经济新闻被评为三星级，其中两项指标超出预期。我认为，持续至今的急剧下滑可能源于以下三个因素的综合作用：
1. 提振美元的新闻：
好于预期的数据加剧了市场对美联储将长期维持高利率的担忧。美元走强和收益率上升给黄金、纳斯达克指数和比特币带来压力。
2. 投资者降低风险：
当利率预期发生变化时，资金可能会流出对利率敏感和对风险敏感的资产。这就是这三种资产都被抛售的原因之一。
3. 半自放大力：
当价格跌破支撑位时，止损单和平仓买单可能会触发进一步的卖单，导致价格即使消息已经发布，也会继续大幅下跌。
新闻可能引发下跌，宏观经济预期可能给市场带来压力，订单流可能加剧下跌。
我的看法是，现在就断定机构投资者同时抛售还为时过早，因为还没有关于他们持仓的数据。你最倾向于哪个因素？ONDO: Why is the RWA sector benchmark considered "not worth a single share" in the eyes of smart money?
When the flagship project of the Real World Assets (RWA) sector, ONDO, fell below the $0.45 mark, even the smart money best at capturing fundamental improvements was unwilling to build positions. The market is questioning in the coldest way: Has the tokenized government bond business model really been proven?
From the data perspective, ONDO is currently priced at $0.4456, with a market cap of $2.17 billion, a 24-hour drop of 4.36% hitting a recent high, and volatility exceeding 7%. A daily trading volume of $9.27 million corresponds to about a 0.43% turnover rate, indicating extremely thin liquidity—an institutional-grade asset allocation target should enjoy premium liquidity, but in practice, it is even worse than mid-sized altcoins. The price has been steadily declining within the $0.4417-$0.4749 range, with bulls completely losing ground.
Smart money delivers the most direct verdict: net short, net position zero, and zero long traders. Even hedge funds most optimistic about the long-term logic of RWA cannot calculate a positive risk-adjusted return under the current interest rate environment—high U.S. Treasury yields, inverted on-chain yields, and unrelieved token unlocking pressure create triple suppression, making staying out the only rational choice.
Core judgment: ONDO is experiencing a synchronized decline due to fundamental realization and liquidity exhaustion. Unless the Federal Reserve initiates a rate cut cycle that drives on-chain yields to surpass again, it will continue to bottom out.# TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
This earnings season, TSMC is quite an interesting case. The early release of its Q3 revenue truly set a new historical record, with a year-over-year increase of 50%, and the data is genuinely impressive.
But here's the interesting part: after the news came out, the stock price actually dropped a bit. Simply put, the market had already anticipated that AI orders would push revenue up, so now everyone isn’t focused on how much product was sold; their attention is fully on the profits.
High revenue doesn’t mean everything is perfect. Right now, everyone is watching whether the gross margin can hold steady in the 65–67% range, as well as the business outlook for Q4.
The short-term stock price decline is more about risk aversion after good news has been priced in, so it’s not necessarily a bearish signal. The real demand for AI chips is still in hand. However, there won’t be any blind hype anymore; good revenue is just a ticket to the game. Whether they can actually make money will be answered by the full earnings report tonight. Whether the stock can continue to strengthen depends on if profits can keep pace with revenue.#solana is scheduled for the Alpenglow upgrade on October 21
[Old Leek Observation] $SOL will have a core upgrade next week: confirmation time targeted at 150 milliseconds
Solana's official team has scheduled the Alpenglow mainnet switch for October 21. This is not an ordinary parameter adjustment but a replacement of the long-running TowerBFT with the new Votor consensus mechanism.
Currently, Solana's transaction finality takes about 12.8 seconds; the new mechanism aims to reduce this to around 150 milliseconds. Simply put, the goal is to make transactions reach an irreversible state faster, which has potential value for high-frequency trading, on-chain transaction applications, and scenarios requiring rapid settlement.
First, 150 milliseconds is the target, which does not mean the mainnet will immediately and stably achieve this under all network conditions upon launch.
Second, the new mechanism will move validator voting out of regular transaction blocks, so the number of transactions displayed on-chain may change after the upgrade. One should not judge Solana's user activity solely by the rise or fall in transaction counts.
Third, SOL's price will also depend on whether the market has already priced in expectations. If there was a price increase before the upgrade, profit-taking might occur at the official switch; if the upgrade is successfully implemented, actual performance improves, and capital continues to flow in, the technical advantage has a better chance to translate into sustained demand.
My judgment: this is a clear technical catalyst but not an unconditional bullish signal #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC's Q3 revenue is about NT$1.49 trillion, up approximately 50% year-on-year, setting a historical record. Impressive revenue does not guarantee a winning financial report; tonight's focus is on gross margin, net profit, and Q4 guidance. AI computing power orders are the main reason, with companies like Nvidia relying on it for foundry services; however, high costs of building factories in the US and slow yield ramp-up pose hidden risks. Revenue is set, but profit performance is the real reveal tonight.#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight
US stock market closing summary: Apple holds steady at $5 trillion, CoreWeave's stock and bonds both crash, scaring Musk
The three major indexes all closed lower, with the Dow down 0.35%, the Nasdaq down 0.15%, and the S&P 500 down 0.02%. On the surface, it seems calm, but there are undercurrents beneath
In terms of trading volume, Nvidia fell 3.16%, with $25.9 billion in turnover ranking first. Jensen Huang said something harsh: if customers develop unsafe AI software, he will stop supplying. Micron Technology fell 4.08%, ranking second, as storage chips continue to be pressured by technological advances from China's Changxin Memory.
CoreWeave is the biggest bomb tonight. Its stock price plummeted 15.46%, bond yields soared above 15%, and the market prices its default probability over the next five years at more than 50%. Musk responded directly with "Scary" after seeing this. This AI cloud service provider is called the "subprime loan segment in the AI field" by analysts; if the AI financing wave recedes, it could go straight to zero.
Apple, on the other hand, is very stable. It closed up 0.5%, with its market value surpassing $5 trillion for the first time, becoming the second company after Nvidia to achieve this. SpaceX has also been active, releasing the so-called "world's smartest" voice model Grok Voice 3.0, which can autonomously handle 70% of Starlink's customer service calls.
In summary: the AI sector is undergoing intense differentiation. Apple and Meta, which have real substance, are rising, while CoreWeave, built on high leverage, is being abandoned by the market. #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance yet to be revealed
Core CPI is higher than expected, oil prices break 105 again, combined with the upcoming midterm elections. ASML's earnings exceeded expectations but still couldn't stop the downward trend. It is estimated that everything will settle after the midterm elections; historically, November and December have been good months for the US stock market. Currently, BTC is indeed still very strong, but from a mechanism perspective, if US and Korean stocks continue to fall, it will inevitably lead to liquidation and margin replenishment demands. Once this action starts and triggers a stampede, a chain reaction of declines will follow.
This is the mechanism at play. I really don't know if it will be triggered, but if it were me, I would probably take advantage of BTC still being around 80k to sell and then buy the tech stocks that are about to create a golden pit. From 80k to 100k is just a 25% increase, but if tech stocks fall into a deep pit, you might get a double return. This math problem should be clear to many. It's just uncertain whether the fragile situation will be broken.
Of course, if you say the strong get stronger and BTC is ready to double to 160k, that's also possible, but it's a low-probability event. $BTC #USCPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test Record top-line growth is a fantastic headline, but in high-capital tech manufacturing, volume alone doesn't guarantee bottom-line efficiency.
With TSMC’s Q3 revenue reaching a record ~NT$1.49T (up ~50% YoY), the top line is clearly being driven by booming demand in AI and advanced semiconductor nodes. However, the core focus now shifts to profitability execution:
- Margin Compression Risks
- Execution over Volume
#TSMCOct15Earnings The busier the project, the token isn't necessarily more valuable
In the past, when evaluating projects, ecosystem growth was often seen as a positive for the token.
Recently, this judgment has started to show problems.
Past consensus:
$ARB, $LDO, and $ONDO all involve governance.
On-chain transactions, staking scale, and growth of financial products were easily regarded as positives.
Current changes:
ARB's fees are collected in ETH, and LDO holders do not receive automatic dividends.
Profits from ONDO's products do not necessarily mean profits for token holders.
Business growth and token returns have never been the same thing.
The most direct impact is that no matter how impressive the project data is, it cannot directly infer an increase in token value. What truly deserves scrutiny next is whose account the new revenue ultimately goes into.
#StandardCharteredOpensBTCandETHTrading, BankExpandsCryptoBusiness $ARB $LDO Although the South Korean stock market triggered a circuit breaker, there are actually two pieces of good news today: one is that the probability of an interest rate hike in October has dropped again, and the other is that both long-term and short-term U.S. Treasury yields have fallen.
For a long time, besides the issues of aging themes and high valuations leading the market to start focusing on earnings expectations, the problem troubling the U.S. stock market has been the competition for liquidity among U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasuries, and corporate bonds.
Now, the decline in U.S. stocks will drive liquidity into U.S. Treasuries to ease the Treasury crisis, while gold, which is directly linked to interest rates, remains generally stable. Without a larger liquidity crisis, gold should maintain stability. Even if there is a short-term sudden liquidity shortage causing a drop, the support from central bank gold purchases keeps its safety high, making it a suitable low-risk bottom-fishing asset.
Tonight's PPI data will most likely continue the trend of yesterday's CPI. Even if it unexpectedly comes in lower than expected, the positive impact will probably only trigger a small rebound and cannot change the downward trend. After this decline, it will likely take the FOMC decision combined with easing U.S.-Iran tensions and other positive factors to gradually calm the market, so patience is still required. #South Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure Even the original $BTC can't escape, 100x short, entered at 83265, marked at 81171.9, floating profit +186.52%. Hundred times leverage shorting BTC, this round can be called "Godslaying," but profits are just on paper until realized.
The market is completely like an electric fan: BTC failed to hold 84100 twice, volume is still shrinking, now hovering around 81100; ETH broke 2580 early from 2626, the rebound is all paper tigers. Altcoin liquidity is all fleeing, even BTC's center of gravity is pushed down, this is either a bottom or just a tired drop taking a breather.
Macroscopically, oil prices falling and ETF inflows can't support 84000, tomorrow night CPI expectations are fully priced in, good news is easily exhausted, bad news will directly crash, high probability of a rise and fall. Geopolitics is eerily quiet, don't take it lightly.
I have locked in some profits in batches on this trade, leaving a base position to watch CPI. Do you dare to short now? Quote your price in the comments. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 $BTC $ETH $SOL
#Orbit Post｜9.54 Billion Liquidated in 24 Hours! Epic Long Liquidation
Latest heatmap data: 9.54 billion USD liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with 178,000 liquidations. 92% were long liquidations, shorts only accounted for 8%. This is a large-scale long squeeze caused by rising macro interest rate expectations.
By coin structure, ETH is the hardest hit this round, with 287 million liquidated, 92.4% of which were long liquidations; BTC follows closely with 197 million, 90.6% long liquidations. Other altcoins and second-tier coins combined liquidated 149 million, also 92.3% longs. ETH leveraged long positions are more concentrated and sensitive to interest rates; once macro negative news hits, the stop-loss cascade is much stronger than BTC.
The largest single liquidation came from Binance BTC perpetual long, amounting to 12.0347 million USD, indicating that large leveraged longs buying at the top were directly wiped out.
Market sentiment interpretation:
Previously, leveraged longs betting on inflation easing and positioning for a rebound were almost entirely liquidated; high-leverage bottom-fishing funds were completely discouraged, and the market is reluctant to easily leverage long positions in the short term;
Short liquidations are very few, shorts have not collectively taken profits and exited, indicating the short side pressure is not yet fully released;
BTC is relatively more resilient than ETH, highlighting its capital flight-to-safety attribute, but overall market confidence is severely damaged, and bottom-fishing willingness has cooled significantly.
Tonight's PPI data is a key variable; if PPI continues to exceed expectations, there will be a new round of long liquidations; if data falls back, it will usher in a window for sentiment recovery. 特斯拉交付超预期，先别急着把盈利修复也一起算进去。
公司10月2日公布三季度交付超过48.6万辆，同时披露储能部署13.7GWh。后面这个数字，我觉得不该只当附带消息。判断盈利时，汽车卖得怎样之外，还需要看储能业务每单位部署究竟能留下多少毛利。
二季度就是一个现成提醒：储能部署增加，能源业务收入同比增长，但毛利率下降了。出货量能告诉我们产品交到客户手里多少，却解释不了售价、成本和相关费用怎样变化。把GWh直接换成利润，和只看汽车销量就推算盈利，容易犯同一种错。
10月21日财报出来，我会把汽车和能源业务分别看。若两边毛利都改善，盈利修复的依据就更扎实；若只是交付数字好看，利润还被费用吃掉，就得耐心找原因。机器人的远期故事，也没法替当季经营回答这些问题。
新业务当然可以期待。可每次实际利润有压力，就把讨论自动推到更远的未来，我听着总有点着急。
眼前已经交付的车和储能产品，到底赚了多少？报表出来以后，先把这道题答完。
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 $SOON SOON This time, I reviewed it again using the four-cycle matrix.
From 0.17 to 0.56, more than doubled in a month, now back to 0.29.
Many people ask if it has bottomed out — my conclusion is: not yet.
The reason is not the candlestick, but the chips.
▸ 15-minute wick rebound, volume, OI, and price all failed to pass the "rebound closed loop" verification
▸ Retail investors' long-short ratio is 1.42, slightly bullish, but large holders' net long-short ratio is -15.6% — retail is bullish, smart money is shorting
▸ Most importantly: 20.24 million tokens unlock in 8 days (10/23), accounting for 3.4% of circulating market value
In the last 6 unlocks, the average 14-day change was -16.9%
So at this position, the probability of the rebound being a "bull trap" is greater than a "reversal."
My habit of reviewing the market is: first fix the direction of the large cycle, then let the signals of the smaller cycles obey it.
Not to be led by a single 15-minute bullish candle.
The only signal truly worth waiting for is:
A volume surge stabilizing above 0.3105, while OI begins to expand positively.
Missing any of these three conditions does not count as a reversal.
— A market review without emotion#Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve? 阿斯麦Q3营收创新高，远期需求兑现与否正考验风险偏好，UNI作为高贝塔山寨标的难独善其身，我倾向短期弱势未止。
资金面看，现价7.028跌6.1%，成交1745.4万，持仓569.9万，费率为正0.01%说明多头仍在扛单，但4小时距高已回撤23.59%，1小时买方虽占优1.38倍，反弹更像空头回补而非新多入场。
若反抽至7.135可轻仓空，止损7.318，目标6.695；跌至6.648附近若买盘续增则试多，止损6.512，目标7.012，单笔仓位别超5%。
——仅为个人看法，不构成投资建议，祝交易顺利。——
$UNI#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#阿斯麦Q3营收创新高，远期需求能否兑现？
$UNI 台积电又炸了。AI根本不是泡沫！连续第六个季度利润创新高。
三季度营收1.49万亿新台币，同比暴涨51%，净利润预计7463亿，同比飙65%。什么概念？一个季度赚的钱，比去年全年某些头部加密项目总市值还多。
但真正刺激的是：台积电现在等于AI世界的“印钞许可证”。
英伟达、AMD、苹果，管你谁家的AI芯片，最后都得排队进台积电的产线。更关键的是CoWoS先进封装——全球八成以上的AI加速器芯片全靠这条路线集成，而台积电几乎独占产能。这就叫卡脖子，只不过这次被卡的是硅谷巨头。
2nm制程从二季度的3%贡献直接拉到三季度11%，苹果和AMD抢着上。5nm以下先进制程营收占比冲到71%，四季度奔75%去。产品结构往高毛利方向死命迁移，定价权强到离谱。
台积电业绩是AI算力需求最硬的晴雨表。芯片代工端都在疯狂扩产，下游AI应用和算力网络的想象空间只会更大。链上AI、DePIN算力、去中心化推理这些叙事，底层逻辑正在被实打实的半导体数据一遍遍夯实。
台积电用财报证明了一件事：AI不是泡沫，是印钞机。问题是，你手里有沾边的筹码吗？#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 $TSM CPI has been released, let's verify it against yesterday's projection. Last night at 20:30, the September CPI was published. First, let's present the actual data, then verify each item against yesterday's projection. Actual values (BLS official; expected values according to CNN report, listed separately): - Overall CPI: year-over-year +3.7% (expected 3.6%, previous 3.4%), month-over-month +0.6% - Core CPI: year-over-year +2.6% (expected 2.5%), month-over-month +0.3% (expected 0.2%) - Gasoline: month-over-month +9.1%, year-over-year +34.2%, contributing more than half of the month-over-month increase Conclusion: Above expectations, and core CPI also exceeded — this falls into the "above expectations" scenario projected yesterday. Verification against projection: 1. Did BTC come under pressure as projected? Yes. Before the release, BTC was around $83,860, and within 5 minutes after the release, it dropped to $82,731. Matt Hougan from Bitwise commented early after the data release that he originally thought it would drop 3-5%, but it actually only dropped about 1% — the decline was milder than some expected. 2. Was the support around 82000 effective? The 82000 level was breached, so this time it cannot simply be recorded as "support effective." Next time, the projection needs to clarify in advance: whether to judge support failure by intraday touches, closing position, or duration. 3. Reaction of US bonds and the dollar? After the release, US bond yields rose, and the dollarRevenue: Most likely to be flat, difficult to exceed expectations.
• The company guides revenue at about $12.86 billion, while the market consensus expectation is about $13.02 billion, approximately 1.2% higher than the guidance.
• Historically, Netflix's actual revenue usually fluctuates within ±0.5% of expectations (Q2 was $12.56 billion vs. expected $12.57 billion). If this expectation does not converge toward the guidance, revenue is more likely to slightly underperform.
Concerns:
• Viewing time in the first half of the year only grew about 2%, with growth mainly driven by price increases rather than user engagement.
• There was a one-time tax expense in Q3 last year, causing EPS to be significantly below expectations; such surprises have occurred before Q3.
• Profit margins are affected by the quarterly rhythm of content and marketing expenses.
My view: EPS is expected to beat by about 65–70%, revenue to beat by about 35–45%.
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight PONS just said yesterday that the data rebounded, but I see the data has shrunk back a bit today.
Compared to October 12 and October 13, the latest daily platform fees and protocol income decreased by 30.83% and 35.98%, respectively.
With data performing so poorly, why did the coin price rise yesterday? I think it was more driven by news.
Yesterday, there was a rumor that Robinhood is preparing $100 million to support the Robinhood chain, which caused many ecosystem coins to take off. Whether it's true or not, I don't know, but quite a few. Crypto media picked it up again, which indeed stimulated the market a bit.
But to be honest, improving the core data is the key. You can't rely on news every time to drive buying; if it happens too often, the effect diminishes. It's like the story of the boy who cried wolf—it will eventually be exposed.
The effect was so good yesterday that I guess the data on the 14th might improve a bit. The market is too bad now, the overall market is like this, let alone any meme coins. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Maji went from a whale to a small fish in ten days, and the cost was too high!
Once a big player in the crypto circle, he was forced to the edge of a cliff by high leverage. Data shows a total loss exceeding $36.57 million, with another $4.43 million lost in the past 7 days, leaving only $279,800 in the account. Currently, he is holding a full position of 2,100 $ETH long, with a position value of $5.07 million, opened at 2,515, actual leverage over 36x, unrealized loss of $200,000, and funding fees accumulated to $1.36 million. The most fatal is the liquidation price at 2,397, with available margin already zero, purely relying on market movement to survive.
Combined with the macro pressure of the US September CPI rising to 3.7%, ETH is fluctuating with the market. This kind of extreme naked long is like licking blood on the edge of a knife. From whale to small fish in ten days, high leverage amplified greed and accelerated destruction. If a whale ignores position management when bottom fishing, it can also instantly go to zero. Don't blindly trust big players' games; the survival rule is always light positions and risk control. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 一周流出5700万美元，狗狗币大户在撤还是在换手？
案发现场：两条互相打架的线索。
线索一：最近一周，$DOGE 现货资金流向是净流出，5700万美元，价格跟着掉了8.9%，停在0.085附近。线索二：10月6日前后，有报道盯着大户的地址，累计买入约1.12亿美元。
一个往外，一个往里。谁在说实话？
查账十几年，我的经验：两个都是真的，只是说的不是一回事。流出那5700万，流得散、流得急，多半是被盘面吓出去的中小仓位；买进去那1.12亿，买得慢、买得沉，通常是机构或大户在低位分批吸筹。
这就叫“换手”。
筹码的“大扫除”
在金融市场里，最健康的上涨往往不是一蹴而就的，而是伴随着剧烈的震荡和清洗。当价格跌到0.085这个关键支撑位时，恐慌情绪会让那些意志不坚定的持有者交出筹码。这5700万美元的流出，就像是把地基里的沙土抽走。
而与此同时，那1.12亿美元的买入，就是在这个低位悄悄进场的水泥。大户们并不急于拉升价格，他们需要足够的空间和时间来收集足够的筹码。这种“低位承接”的行为，往往比单纯的上涨更值得关注。
0.085：多空分水岭#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Strolling Goose reviewed the financial report today and was shocked by SanDisk's data. In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 (ending July 3), SanDisk's revenue was $8.965 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase. GAAP net profit was $6.9 billion, with diluted earnings per share of $43.97. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $39.25. What does it mean to earn $6.9 billion in net profit in one quarter? It's equivalent to making $76 million every day. Even more astonishing is the growth rate. A 51% quarter-over-quarter increase, with about one-third coming from volume growth and two-thirds from price increases. In other words, SanDisk not only sold more but also sold at higher prices—and customers are still scrambling to buy. Why are people scrambling to buy even at higher prices? Because of AI. AI data center construction is creating structural demand for enterprise-grade NAND flash storage. Training a large model requires massive data storage, and the inference phase requires faster storage read speeds. The larger the AI model, the more storage is needed. NAND flash is the "granary" of the AI era. SanDisk's data center business is the best proof. In the previous quarter (Q3), data center revenue was $1.467 billion, a year-over-year surge of 645%. This is not growth; it's an explosion. Moreover, this is already SanDisk's third consecutive quarter of significantly exceeding expectations. Memory shortages and supply tightness continue, and prices keep rising. Customers are not choosing the cheapest supplier; they are scrambling for whoever has stock. SanDisk's own future outlook is even more aggressive. The company expects the NAND market size to reachThe kitchen stove hasn't been turned off yet, but the ledger is already on the table—168 billion in single-quarter revenue, a sharp 46% quarter-on-quarter increase. This pot of broth is boiling fiercer than any I've seen in my 20 years. But as a five-star veteran chef, I only ask one question: The broth is richer, but have the firewood costs been accounted for?
For the second consecutive quarter, the books have turned from red to green, with a gross margin just over 10% and positive quarterly cash flow. What does this mean in the kitchen? It means a dish has finally been made without losses, leaving a bit of sauce at the bottom of the plate. But any cook knows, a 10% gross margin is like balancing on a tightrope: rent, labor, gas—if any of these rise even slightly, this dish instantly turns into a loss.
More glaring is the turnover rate—its growth rate has slowed compared to the previous quarter. The storefronts keep expanding, but customers are eating slower, indicating the front of house is growing while the kitchen is getting clogged. Signature dishes can hold the scene, but what truly eats into profits are the ever-burning high-powered computing stoves and the two super spicy peppers continuously added: chips and data centers.
The ratio is the killer. Revenue is the main dish, computing power is the firewood in the stove, and chips are the chili peppers. The spicier the chili, the more the main dish’s original flavor is masked. What chefs fear most isn’t customers not coming, but the stoves multiplying and dishes getting pricier, until the whole table’s bill can’t even cover the gas.
Several Michelin-starred peers are fighting over the same batch of truffles, only to find the purchase price is already higher than the menu price—that’s the current state of this pot.
There’s another trick: flavored profits are plated with trimmed edges. The real ingredient losses going into the pot—R&D, depreciation, prepaid long-term contracts—aren’t written on the tasting menu. Good plating is skill, but customers judge by the spoonful they taste.
That so-called 2 trillion full set menu pricing, in October, invited tasters into private rooms, serving a flavored version, not the original. The pinch of salt that presses hardest on the tongue in the original is the ever-increasing computing power cost. Whether this price can hold depends not on how pretty the menu looks, but on this dish being served for three consecutive quarters, with turnover steady and broth not turning bitter.
The walk-in customers at the next table, following the orders, add more as they smell the aroma; the linked assets’ heat looks strong, but the cooking time is always controlled by someone else’s stove. Before picking up the chopsticks, first see clearly what’s in your bowl: is it the main dish, the seasoning, or that spoonful of super spicy chili? Eating chili as a meal will burn your stomach through.
This pot knows best: steadily serving a 10% gross margin and sustaining turnover is true skill; piling on firewood to create heat is smoke, not fragrance. #anthropicq3revenue16.8b主动脉撕裂的时候是听不见声音的，只有监护仪上那条曲线在盘中直直塌下去将近八个点。
十月十五日，韩国市场那颗心脏正在台上出血。综合指数盘中坠近百分之八，创口面积几乎覆盖整个前壁；海力士与三星这两根供血主干同时痉挛，除颤板（侧车机制）被第二次贴上胸口，电流打得下去，节律却回不来。
日经225失守百分之四，说明缺血已经越过心包，向邻近器官扩散，侧支循环全面失代偿。纳斯达克下挫百分之一点八八，那是远端的栓子终于打进了左心室。而美国芯片股连续第六个交易日走低——请注意，这已经不是急性事件了。急性缺血会疼，会报警；连续六天的低灌注不疼，它让心肌在安静中一点点纤维化，等到你能听见的时候，是奔马律。
通胀数据偏热，等于全身血管阻力上调，后负荷猛增，每一次射血都要对抗更高的压力。人工智能融资成本抬升，那是体外循环的灌注流量被悄悄拧小，可手术还在继续，氧债在累积。估值是心室壁张力，越高越耗氧；存储价格战是主动脉瓣反流，血打出去又倒灌回来，每一次收缩都有一部分做功被白白浪费。
阿斯麦的设备订单依然强劲，这在影像上等于冠脉造影报告写着“主干通畅”。可造影看的是管道，超声看的是泵。管道通畅而泵不动，病灶就不在血管，在心肌本身。市场此刻做的，正是把探头从血管壁挪到心室壁上。
台积电的业绩，就是这一刀切下去的术中冰冻切片。要鉴别的只有两件事：是心率过快——利率驱动的估值重置，功能性的、可逆的，调药即可；还是心肌已经坏死——芯片盈利预期系统性走弱，器质性的，必须开胸搭桥。切片没出结果之前，任何大剂量操作都是盲穿，而盲穿最容易切到传导束。
那枚绑定纳斯达克与芯片链条的映射标的，此刻扮演的是移植心脏。供体一缺血，受体立刻排异，没有人会等到病理报告出来才开始给抗排斥药。
价格暴跌从来只是症状。真正让人背脊发凉的是——监护仪报警的，永远是那部分还有电活动的心肌。 #kospidropsnearly8%Money votes with its feet
Three signals from the funding side, none showing any favor. First, the funding rate: on 10/13 it was still +0.0062% long position fee, turned negative on 10/14, and today has slid to -0.0041%—shorts have started to consistently collect rent, the sentiment steering wheel has turned. Second, on the open interest side: today saw a net outflow of $86.91 million, total market contract open interest shrank back to $7.6 billion; over 7 days, the cumulative net inflow is only about $3 million, all the positions added during the rise were paid back during the fall, meaning a whole week of effort was wasted. Third, the US stock $BTC ETF net outflow in October has exceeded $450 million, just last week alone $679 million, about eight thousand coins, were withdrawn; the $65.4 million outflow on 10/12 came entirely from IBIT under BlackRock—if even BlackRock is pulling out, bulls still trying to bottom-fish here should first ask who is carrying their sedan chair. Oh, the seller is still shouting on TV that the bear market is over and $100,000 is back. Calls are free, withdrawals are real money, the market has already answered with the candlesticks. I just came across a post that made me feel a bit amused yet somewhat bittersweet. Have you ever had that feeling: your mainstream coins are all in the red, while altcoins seem forgotten in the corner? A friend shared his positions—BTC and ETH both showing floating profits, but DOGE and PEPE have been red all the way down. He joked that he treated the junk coins like lottery tickets, luckily with a light position. This statement is actually more worth pondering than the losses themselves. The market has a very smooth logical loop for junk coins. When BTC rises, it means funds feed the mainstream first, altcoins get drained, so their drop is expected. When BTC is sideways, funds are cautious, no one dares to move, altcoins have no support, so their drop is also normal. When BTC falls, panic selling hits junk coins first, altcoins fall even harder, which is still normal. Each statement sounds right, but combined they mean: regardless of rising, falling, or sideways, altcoins can't find their own reason to rise. Behind this is not just simple sector rotation, but an issue of emotional pricing power. When the market only wants to give a premium to BTC and ETH, risk appetite doesn't truly spread out. It's not that funds don't see altcoins, they see them but are unwilling to bear that uncertainty. Tokens like DOGE and PEPE rely on attention, sentiment, and marginal buying. Once these three contract simultaneously, the rebound becomes very light and short-lived. There is also a more bullish path: if BTC stabilizes and slowly raises its lows, ETH starts to follow, then the market will give altcoins some room to test and err again. At that time, the first to move are usually not the worst junk coins, but those with communities, liquidity, and narratives. Junk coin rebounds usually lag and are highly dependent on大盘集体吃面，ZK却偷偷拉了15个点，V神这碗"奶"有多少含金量？
今天整个加密市场还在给CPI还债，总市值掉约3.4%，比特币也趴在8万附近喘气，结果涨幅榜榜首被ZK（ZKsync）占了：24小时从0.0148冲到0.0185，逆势+15%，相当割裂。
导火索是真新催化。V神今天在X上公开给zkSync的Airbender团队道贺，说zkEVM的"速度之战已经彻底打赢"，下一步重心该全部转向安全性。这个Airbender Prime在一张Blackwell显卡上、对7200个主网区块做到99%在10秒内出证，叙事确实硬。
我的读法：这是典型的"技术里程碑+龙头点名"情绪脉冲，前两天还有创始人提议回购的铺垫，资金借势做一把合情合理。但得清醒，它24小时成交额才200多万刀、市值不到2亿美金，RSI已75、价格顶破布林上轨，盘子不大易拉易砸，这种量能追高容错率很低。
盯两个信号：能不能放量站稳0.018这道上轨而不是冲高回落；以及"转向安全"后ZK系有没有后续验证进展，光靠一条推文的热度往往撑不久。DYOR，非投资建议。
#ZK #ZKsync #Layer2$ETH CPI数据落地，整体通胀超预期，核心通胀同步走高，美联储那个“仅靠能源涨价”的借口彻底被撕碎了。市场应声大跌，下一步走势该怎么看？
数据出来后大饼 $BTC 直接跌破8.2万，ETF资金本来就在往外跑，现在宏观预期一收紧，买盘更不敢进来了。如果今天守不住8万，下面就是7万8。
以太 $ETH 最惨，它本来就是三个里最弱的，ETF持续失血，质押收益又跑不过美债，机构在下面根本不接盘。大饼一软它跌得最狠，今天又是持续下跌，估计短时间很难企稳。
黄金 $XAUT 也大跌，现货金跌了将近2个点。核心通胀超预期推高了实际利率，美元和美债收益率一起往上顶，不生息的黄金短期只能挨捶。但黄金今天迅速反弹，因为ETF配置盘还在持续流入，央行也没停手。
它跟大饼最大的区别在于，大饼的接盘方是链上巨鲸，黄金的接盘方是央行和主权基金。后者的资金属性和耐心，完全不在一个量级。 大饼和以太现货底仓拿稳，短线杠杆全卸。黄金短期承压，但底子比大饼硬。$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 💸资金坦白局：谁在真买，谁在假嗨？
$BTC ：合约24h净流入1.94亿，现货+4470万，短线双绿。但别急着开香槟——周线-28亿，月线-53亿，12h还-1.02亿。这1.94亿是最近几小时才回的血，更像超跌反弹的试探，不是反转号角。🩹
$ETH ：精神分裂现场。合约+5755万，现货-1.1亿。杠杆客赌反弹，持币者继续跑。两边打架，大资金没共识。现货若持续卖，合约早晚被拖下水。⚔️
$SOL ：合约-1.62万，约等于躺平；现货+3339万。有人悄悄囤，没人敢上杠杆。周线现货+2006万，主流里唯一转正。定投逻辑＞合约博弈。🌱
串起来：BTC试探回流，ETH多空互撕，SOL现货偷买。三种病，一个共同点——周线月线全在失血，大钱仍谨慎。大饼虽强，但资金只是探头，不是All in。🚨
总结：反弹可以看，反转别急喊。钱在试水温，不是跳泳池。🧊#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a record high of 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year surge of 50%, setting a historic peak. The full earnings report and briefing at 14:00 today will focus mainly on profit and gross margin.
But don't just focus on TSMC; this AI chip frenzy is actually tightly linked with our crypto circle.
Recently, when semiconductors sneeze, Bitcoin catches a cold. Micron and SK Hynix fell, BTC slid directly from 83,000 to 81,600, and ETH dropped nearly 4%. Simply put, the money behind AI hype and crypto trading is the same group—when risk appetite tightens, tech stocks and crypto assets get hammered together.
TSMC's guidance tonight is essentially a "thermometer" for AI market sentiment. If the gross margin hits the 67% ceiling, it means computing demand is still burning hot, signaling a warm sentiment for crypto; conversely, if the guidance is conservative, funds may continue to withdraw from high-risk assets.
Keep an eye on 14:00; TSMC's earnings briefing could be the prelude to tonight's BTC direction choice. $BTC $xTSEM #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC delivers an impressive "half report card": Q3 revenue approximately NT$1.494 trillion, up 50.9% year-over-year and 17.6% quarter-over-quarter, setting a single-quarter record; September monthly revenue reached NT$511.857 billion, soaring 54.6% year-over-year. The numbers are explosive, but this is on the revenue side; profit details will be disclosed at the October 15 earnings call.
The record revenue is understandable, fundamentally driven by three combined forces: Nvidia, AMD, and other AI chips fully occupying advanced process capacity, with CoWoS packaging still a bottleneck; Apple's new A/M series supporting the high-end consumer segment; 2nm moving from trial production to mass production, starting to contribute to revenue. In short, customers are not bargaining over price but competing for capacity.
However, profit is the real test. The company’s own Q3 gross margin guidance is only 65%–67%, lower than Q2’s 67.7%. The reason is straightforward: early depreciation and yield costs during 2nm ramp-up dilute margins by about 3–4 percentage points; overseas plants in the US and Japan have higher costs, diluting margins by 2–4 percentage points long-term. So the market is really watching three numbers: whether the gross margin can hold at 65%, whether Q4 guidance will increase quarter-over-quarter, and the capital expenditure outlook for 2027.Today's breadth data is painful: Among 283 coins in USDT perpetual contracts, only 19 are rising, with a median of -7.32%. $BTC fell 2.74%, seemingly "resistant to falling," but actually it's just falling slower, not not falling.
My three actions today:
1. No adding positions. In a market with a median of -7%, "cheaper because it fell" are the most expensive four words.
2. Cut leveraged positions first. Leverage amplifies the median decline; -7% multiplied by leverage is not a correction, it's an accident.
3. Watch ETH, not BTC. ETH fell 5.43%, SOL fell 3.98%—if the decline continues, altcoins and the main market have an order; the main market is just lagging.
The lesson is not that the market must fall, but that in a down market, "holding" and "being held" are two different things. I don't hate losing money; I hate not having control over my positions.
On days like today with a median of -7%, whose position will you cut first? Hold BTC, or look at the ETH in your hand first? $BTC $SLX
Not looking good, not looking good at all!
The institution incubating this project is about to enter liquidation, so what's the point of playing this game?
Solstice (the project issuing the SLX token) was incubated by **Deus X Capital**.
Deus X Capital founded Solstice Labs in 2024 and provided it with funding and resource support; it is one of the projects incubated under its umbrella.
Currently, this institution has announced it will shut down and enter liquidation (planned to be completed by January 2027), but the SLX project itself was still incubated by it.
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What this institution does:
Deus X Capital is a crypto and fintech investment company supported by a family office, classified as an institutional investor. It was established in 2023, manages about $1 billion in assets, and its main businesses include investment, project incubation, and related operations. It is considered a relatively legitimate professional institution in the crypto field.There are some reasons to hold, so let's ask again
If the reason to buy $PEPE is to wait for sentiment to return, I think we should admit that our judgment is about market attention.
You can't say it's popular when it doesn't rise, then suddenly change your tune when it falls, saying you should hold it as a long-term project.
I'm more concerned about whether trading can remain active after the hype dies down.
If more and more people are discussing it but the price still can't push up, don't rush to explain it as having more room ahead. After all, there is real money between attention and buying.
For $SUI, I watch out for an illusion: just because the project is progressing well, you think you don't need to watch the supply during the holding period.
It has a total cap of 10 billion tokens, but tokens are still gradually released as planned, so the circulating supply will change.
This doesn't mean that release necessarily causes a price drop, but with the same demand, the tradable quantity might differ.
Being optimistic about the ecosystem is one thing; deciding at what valuation to buy is another matter to consider separately.
For $AVAX, you need to be careful not to mistake staking rewards as price protection.
Its staking rewards come from new issuance, while network fees have a separate burn mechanism.
The number of coins increases, but the account value can still decline.
So I won't ignore whether the original buying reasons have changed just because it can generate yield. Rewards can be counted as income but can't answer why you still want to hold.CPI data has been released, overall inflation exceeded expectations, and core inflation rose simultaneously. The Fed's excuse of "only relying on energy price increases" has been completely torn apart. The market responded with a sharp drop; what should we expect next?
After the data came out, Bitcoin $BTC directly fell below 82,000. ETF funds were already flowing out, and now with tighter macro expectations, buyers dare not enter. If 80,000 doesn't hold today, the next support is 78,000.
Ethereum $ETH is the worst hit; it was already the weakest among the three. ETF continues to bleed, staking yields can't compete with U.S. Treasuries, and institutions are not stepping in at the bottom. When Bitcoin weakens, it falls the hardest. It continues to decline today, and it is estimated to be difficult to stabilize in the short term.
Gold $XAUt also fell sharply, with spot gold dropping nearly 2%. Core inflation exceeding expectations pushed up real interest rates, and both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose together. Non-yielding gold can only take a hit in the short term. But gold quickly rebounded today because ETF allocation funds are still flowing in, and central banks have not stopped.
The biggest difference between it and Bitcoin is that Bitcoin's buyers are on-chain whales, while gold's buyers are central banks and sovereign funds. The capital attributes and patience of the latter are on a completely different level. Hold your Bitcoin and Ethereum spot positions firmly, and unload all short-term leverage. Gold is under short-term pressure but fundamentally stronger than Bitcoin. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 The US dollar surged. Bitcoin was dumped. The bet on rate hikes doubled.
September CPI is 3.7%, August was only 3.4%. Core is 2.6%, August was only 2.4%.
Both numbers are higher than expected.
The biggest increase was in gasoline, 9.1%. One person bears half the increase.
The first thing to break is not the coin.
It's the idea that "Bitcoin is only for risk speculation."
When I saw the gasoline number, my first reaction was to rush to fill up.
Then I found it was even more expensive than last week.
People are like that.
Alright, back to the main topic.
The Federal Reserve already raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, now at 3.75%–4.00%.
Will there be another one? The next meeting is October 27–28.
Before the CPI, the market was betting about 20% chance of a hike. When the data came out, it became 47%.
In one trading session, it doubled.
The two-year US Treasury yield is 4.872%, up 7 basis points that day. The dollar also rose.
Look clearly:
Bitcoin pays no interest.
The two-year US Treasury pays you 4.87%.
That's all there is to it.
Now comes the hardest part.
I have a bit of a bias, this round of decline is not the coin's fault at all, it's that everyone suddenly remembered interest rates.
So I wrote two consecutive articles about interest rates yesterday, because this is the key focus now.
A few days ago, those shouting "next stop 100,000" have all gone silent these past two days.
And people who usually don't follow financial news opened accounts for the first time this week, first checked deposit rates, and then never came back. #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC's Q3 revenue reached a historic high, mainly benefiting from the AI chip foundry boom. However, the market is more focused on profit quality: new process ramp-up and overseas factory construction have increased costs, raising doubts about whether the gross margin can hold at 65%-67% and if profits can match the revenue. Earlier AI expectations have been fully priced in, so funds chose to cash out before the earnings report, leading to a stock price pullback. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #TSMCOct15Earnings
TSMC's revenue record before October 15 had already been absorbed by the market. If we wait until the financial report day to see it as a positive surprise, the investment rhythm might have been delayed.
On October 8, the company had already announced September revenue data: a 54.6% year-over-year increase, and a slight 0.6% month-over-month decrease. This variance carries deep significance — the strong long-term growth trend does not necessarily mean every month must set a new record compared to the previous month. Minor monthly fluctuations are not enough to shake the big narrative of AI demand The market opened broadly in the red this morning 😵. The higher-than-expected CPI data caused a general pullback in the Crypto market. It's clear that it's being lumped into the same risk valuation framework as AI stocks. Sectors like RWA have dropped more than 6%. Ajian believes that what the market cares about now isn't $BTC or $ETH or any particular token, but rather interest rates, financing costs, and whether overvalued assets can hold up.
I've also emphasized before that in the current high-interest-rate economic environment, crypto asset valuations are walking a tightrope and are especially sensitive to market sentiment. Short-term funds love to target these kinds of assets first. If the token you hold long-term doesn't have enough income support, it's risky in this environment. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 The Dow fell 0.09%, almost unchanged; the Nasdaq dropped 1.88%. Two worlds in the same trading day.
Putting these two numbers together makes it clear: money hasn't left the US stock market; it has shifted from tech stocks to healthcare and consumer staples. The information technology sector fell 3% in a single day, while healthcare actually rose 2.4%. Eli Lilly and Merck rose by three to four points, a typical defensive rotation.
The root cause is still oil. In the past ten days or so, attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have clearly increased. On October 11, daily crude oil passing through the strait was only about 2.9 million barrels, compared to over 20 million barrels a few days ago. Brent crude briefly rose above $106, gasoline prices increased by more than 30% year-over-year, and the September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 5.2%, the 2-year yield approached 4.9%, and New York Fed's Williams also said another rate hike this year makes sense.
Assets with high valuations fear this combination the most. Nvidia fell 3.2%, Meta dropped 3.3%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 10% in five days, and CoreWeave dropped 15% in one day.
I tend to believe that as long as oil prices remain above $100, any rebound in tech stocks can only be seen as a bounce. Today, we first look at TSMC's earnings report. If the AI demand story is strong enough, semiconductors may get a breather; if not, this round of adjustment may not be over. After that, the FOMC meeting on October 27-28 awaits.
The xdm tech position can be held for now, adding on dips. In this kind of market, less trading is better. The midterm elections are approaching, and major turning points may come for the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. #Saudi Aramco headquarters attacked, crude oil supply under focus This CPI move has dashed the previous optimistic expectations of "peak rate hikes." #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
In the short term, the macro trend is pulling downward. Rising rate hike expectations, increasing US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar mean risk assets are generally struggling. BTC will not strengthen independently.
But in the medium term, there is long-term capital buying around 80,000. The ETF's single-day counter-trend inflow of 167 million is no lie. It shows that someone is willing to support at this level.
At this stage, the biggest taboo is trying to guess the bottom. Whether 80,000 can hold depends on upcoming PPI data and the FOMC meeting. Before the direction is clear, position sizing is more important than judgment. # Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Three key variables truly determine the ceiling of the advertising business
1. Whether advertising ARPU can catch up with subscription ARPU
Currently, the per-user revenue of ad-supported plans is still lower than that of ad-free plans. The gap may only narrow if advertiser budgets, programmatic buying, and live CPM increase.
2. Whether live and highly engaging content can be continuously supplied
Live content like NFL, WWE, MLB has higher ad monetization efficiency and can boost user engagement, but it is costly and concentrated in scheduling, requiring proof of sustainability.
3. Whether AI advertising systems can improve delivery efficiency
Netflix is advancing AI-driven ad planning, creative adaptation, audience insights, and data clean rooms, which relates to whether advertisers are willing to increase budgets long-term.
Investment Judgment
Netflix's advertising business is worth tracking, but one should not focus solely on the slogan of "doubling ad revenue." More importantly, watch: ad plan ARPU, advertiser retention, live ad fill rate, programmatic share, and whether profit margins are diluted by content costs.
If these indicators improve, the ad business will shift from a "story" to "cash flow"; if not, it will only continue to support valuation rather than become a performance inflection point. With the release of this CPI data, many people have actually realized that the previously repeated market narrative of "inflation easing, rate cuts by year-end" is not so certain.
Everyone had assumed that the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle was already over, so assets without interest like $BTC and $ETH could maintain their valuations in a high interest rate environment.
However, this time both CPI and core inflation exceeded expectations, which directly overturned that premise—the US Treasury yields surged, and now even holding risk-free US Treasuries can yield over 5%, so institutions naturally don't want to stay in volatile, cash-flow-free crypto; the continuous net outflows from ETFs are the most concrete evidence.
The chain of liquidations only accelerated the decline speed a bit; the real problem is that most of the current buyers are still old whales in the crypto space doing short-term trades, who won't hold for more than a few months before leaving.
In contrast, gold fell but quickly rebounded, supported by long-term allocations from central banks and sovereign wealth funds; they don't gamble on whether rates will rise next month. This kind of capital resilience is something the crypto space simply can't match right now.
Investment involves risks, and decisions should be made cautiously. The above analysis is only a market viewpoint sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 TSMC’s record revenue figures were already public before October 15, so presenting them as an unexpected positive surprise on earnings day may be missing the bigger picture.
On October 8, the company reported that September revenue increased 54.6% year-over-year but slipped 0.6% compared with August. This highlights an important distinction: strong annual growth doesn’t necessarily mean revenue will rise every month.
#TSMCOct15Earnings #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Why so strong?
● Advanced process fully loaded: 3nm accounts for about 30% of wafer revenue, 5nm about 33%, and 7nm and below total 77%; 2nm is also starting to ramp up (about 11%), mainly benefiting from Apple's A20 Pro/M6 chips and AMD Venice server CPUs.
● Continuous investment in AI infrastructure: Next-generation AI processors like Nvidia Vera Rubin platform and AMD MI450X are queued up to compete for capacity, and CoWoS advanced packaging is also in short supply.
● Capital expenditure significantly increased: Full-year capital expenditure for 2026 has been raised from $52-56 billion to $60-64 billion, with 70-80% invested in advanced processes. #US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight Brothers, my personal analysis is that oil prices will surge to $100 before the midterm elections. First, let's talk about the US-Iran situation. Recently, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, then the Houthi forces in Yemen attacked Iran, and Iran continues to stir up the Middle East situation. Iran's goal is very clear: to control oil as a powerful weapon. Excluding seasonal factors, global demand for oil is roughly the same every year, but now that Iran controls the oil, global demand cannot be met, which will definitely affect everyone's lives, and this impact will reflect on countries. To solve this problem, there must be US-Iran talks, but the US has no sincere intention to negotiate. Currently, the US is still trying to find solutions, but the root cause remains in the Middle East. So oil prices definitely won't come down anytime soon and may even hit previous highs because Iran will surely try to finalize the talks before the midterm elections. Otherwise, once the midterms are over, the "King" will definitely attack. So oil prices may not continue to rise, but they certainly won't fall.
Now about Russia and Ukraine, the war has lasted almost five years. Now, even if they want to stop, they can't. One side must admit defeat. If they wanted to negotiate, Russia and Ukraine would have done so earlier and wouldn't have fought this long. Ukraine definitely wants to negotiate, but Russia refuses. So Ukraine attacks Russia's energy facilities daily to pressure Russia through other energy-concerned countries. But Russia has no other strengths except stubbornness. So no one knows when oil prices will come down. This is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice $BTC