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$ZEC ZEC/USDT perpetual 30-minute chart, bearish pattern, bearish sentiment but no shorting due to unclear overall market conditions.
My view: The market initially surged then pulled back, probing down to a low of 1112.06. Currently, it is a minor recovery rebound after a sharp drop, with the overall major trend still weak. Wait for the price to rebound to the 1230 resistance level before attempting to short. The first target is the 1180 support, with a stop loss set above 1245. If this level is broken, the bearish outlook should be paused.
Chan theory structure: The downtrend started from the high of 1383.76, forming a purple downward continuation zone midway. After hitting the low of 1112.06, a rebound occurred forming the second purple zone shown in the chart; then the price broke down again to a new low. The current rise is just a pullback after the breakdown and does not reverse the main 30-minute downtrend structure.
Wyckoff volume-price observation: The main down phase showed volume expansion on the way down, but this rebound’s volume has clearly shrunk. The buying support is insufficient, and funds have not continuously entered to bottom fish. This is a weak rebound after a decline, with weak bullish attack strength.
Key observation: Focus closely on the 1230 resistance level. If the rebound stalls here with volume contraction, it is a shorting opportunity; if volume expands and price holds above 1245, it indicates short-term bullish strength and bearish views should be reconsidered. $ASTER is quite conflicted: the perpetual exchange behind it consistently ranks among the industry's top in daily volume, yet the platform token itself has dropped 70% from its peak, with a market cap now only 1.8 billion.
The usual logic for platform tokens is that good business means a valuable token. Aster indeed captured volume—offering 1000x leverage and nearly free fees, overshadowing many established DEXs. But the market clearly doesn't trust the quality of this volume: the trading driven by subsidies and high leverage depends on whether fees get cut or not. The token price dropping 70% in a year is traders' way of grading this.
Even more awkward is the token distribution. Only about 30% is circulating; the remaining 60%+ is locked in the ecosystem, treasury, and team, untouched. The current 1.8 billion market cap corresponds to a fully diluted valuation of 5.7 billion, meaning today's platform valuation has already been prepaid more than twice over by tokens not yet released. The supply looming above the price on the ground is even more unsettling.
Compared to HYPE in the same sector, there's a 20x market cap gap. For the same business, the market's discount on Aster is understandable.
Around 0.7 is the level where this rebound has been repeatedly tested; breaking above it would recover this week's losses. Below, 0.65 was the recently established bottom. As long as the divergence between business and token price remains uncorrected, every green candle is just an oversold reflex. #Institutional Continuous Positioning, Why Does BTC Still Face Pressure?
Core Phenomena
1. Macro liquidity is the biggest ceiling; the interest rate environment suppresses risk asset valuations
Bitcoin itself does not generate cash flow; its valuation is highly influenced by real interest rates and U.S. Treasury yields.
Even if institutions keep allocating, if long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, a large amount of capital will prioritize high-yield fixed income assets and be unwilling to assign higher valuations to highly volatile crypto assets.
At the same time, the market is constantly playing a game with the Fed's rate cut pace: inflation data fluctuates, employment remains resilient, and the market keeps postponing rate cut expectations, making it difficult for risk assets to sustain a major rally. As long as rate cut expectations are not truly realized, every rebound is treated as a window to reduce positions.
2. ETFs are a "two-way channel," allowing both buying and continuous selling
Many mistakenly believe ETFs only have net inflows, which is the biggest misconception.
Spot ETFs effectively provide Wall Street asset managers, pension funds, and family offices with a high-liquidity outlet for one-click buying and one-click redemption selling.
After a wave of large weekly net inflows, it is easy to see profit-taking and large net outflows follow. One wave of big money comes in, while another wave of earlier investors redeems directly to cash out during the rebound. The net inflow buying is directly offset by the redeemed selling.
Institutional positioning ≠ all institutions uniformly bullish; some institutions are building positions gradually on dips, while others are taking profits and exiting on rallies.
3. Heavy selling pressure from whales and high-level trapped positions creates a thick resistance zone aboveWant to know what TSMC will say in advance? Check ASML on Wednesday morning first
TSMC reports earnings on Thursday, but the real preview airs Wednesday morning—ASML delivers first. The logic is simple: ASML sells lithography machines to TSMC, and EUV orders are a leading indicator of TSMC's capacity expansion.
ASML's current forecast: revenue of €11.66 billion, up 53% year-over-year, gross margin 55%-57%. But the numbers aren't the main point; the focus is on two things: how many new EUV orders there are, and whether the 2027 outlook will be raised. Its EUV capacity is already booked through 2027, with plans to expand capacity by another 30% in 2027.
To translate: if ASML's EUV orders explode, it means an early official announcement that TSMC's capital expenditure will increase, making Goldman Sachs' $85 billion call solid; if orders are weak, TSMC's guidance on Thursday is expected to be cut by 30%.
Interestingly, ASML has already risen 66% this year, and its valuation isn't cheap. "Meeting expectations" might not be enough—same problem as TSMC: expectations are maxed out, and the biggest fear is good news being fully priced in.
For the crypto community: the sentiment front for AI-themed coins is Wednesday morning, but don't bet heavily. The real main event Wednesday is the 8:30 PM CPI release; BTC's main storyline is still there. Two big shows, which one will you watch?
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profitability performance to be revealed $ZEC finally drops from $1,348 to $1,230, but my short is still far underwater. 😩
My entry was $816, and this pullback barely helps. Resistance sits near $1,320, with support around $1,200.
All eyes are on tomorrow’s CPI data. Hot inflation could push ZEC below $1,200 toward $1,050, while softer data may trigger a bounce toward $1,320.
For now, this looks more like profit-taking before CPI than a confirmed trend reversal.
Being stuck in a short is exhausting.#BTC and ETH Spot ETFs Simultaneously Outflowing, Has Institutional Demand Weakened?
Here's the core conclusion in one sentence: In the short term, this reflects a decline in risk appetite and concentrated profit-taking by traders, which does not mean that institutions have completely abandoned allocations in the medium to long term, nor should it be directly equated with "institutional demand has already weakened."
1. What is the background of this simultaneous outflow?
In the past week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $681 million, and ETH spot ETFs had an outflow of $542 million, a fairly obvious synchronized redemption, coinciding with several reinforcing factors:
1. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose again, inflation data fluctuated, and the market continuously pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, causing high-valuation risk assets to be collectively devalued;
2. After a rebound in September, prices reached a heavy resistance zone above, prompting short-term trading institutions and family offices that entered earlier to take profits;
3. Geopolitical risks increased, leading to a contraction in overall market risk appetite—not only in crypto but also Nasdaq and growth stocks faced pressure simultaneously, representing cross-asset risk-off rebalancing rather than a standalone bearish view on BTC/ETH.
2. The most critical misconception: ETF outflows ≠ all institutions are selling
Many people treat ETF fund flows as a unified institutional vote, but here we must separate two completely different types of funds:
✅ One type is short-term trading funds (the main force behind this outflow)
Hedge funds and asset managers doing swing trades use ETFs for trend trading. They buy on a rise, hit resistance, and face macro uncertainties.Is AI hardware about to change the game?
The storage and optical communication sectors have collectively plunged this round, with SanDisk $SNDK down 5.97%, Micron Technology $MU down 3.88%, and Lumentum $LITE sharply falling 9.78%.
The previous AI infrastructure frenzy pushed related stocks too high, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking. Coupled with market concerns about intensified competition in advanced memory in China and capacity release, investors quickly chose to cash out when sensing the wrong direction, causing sentiment to collapse rapidly.
This is actually the painful transition period for AI hardware speculation shifting from purely story-driven to performance realization. The market had overly optimistic high growth expectations earlier, so once any sign of marginal growth slowdown appears, a stampede is inevitable.
In the short term, the sector will inevitably experience volatility and bottoming, but the moat of giants in the AI foundation remains. As the earnings window approaches, companies with real technological barriers and solid orders will differentiate themselves. Next, it depends on whether the financial reports can withstand the high valuations.
DYOR #SanDisk MSCI Rebalancing Takes Effect, NAND Valuation in Focus
SanDisk closed at 1487.33 on 10.12 Eastern Time, plunging 5.97% in a single day, with an intraday low of 1464.43. The storage sector collectively plunged, Micron fell in sync, SK Hynix and Kioxia retreated in tandem. Recent trend characteristics: 6 down days out of 7 trading days, entering a weak consolidation phase of continuous correction.
The core logic behind the decline mainly includes the following points:
1. Capital begins to speculate that profit growth has peaked, NAND price increase slope slows; mid-to-long-term fundamentals, 93.9 billion long-term contract orders, and 14 billion buyback plans remain unchanged, but the market no longer blindly trades high growth.
2. ChangXin Memory's 4F² architecture breakthrough, the market prices in intensified future NAND competition in advance.
3. Buyback plans of leading Japanese and Korean memory companies ended early, lacking buying support, capital concentrates on cashing out high-level AI storage targets.
4. Federal Reserve officials' hawkish statements delay rate cut expectations, suppressing high-valuation growth stocks. This correction's most critical threshold. If volume breaks below 1420 = continuation of the bearish trend, opening further downside space. As long as this level holds, there is a chance for a short-term recovery rebound to brew. #SanDisk Micron Decline, ChangXin Technical Progress in Focus #OKX Million Planner 【On-Chain Trading Update｜STRK】
Monitored address 0x0c1f opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 0.08802 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 118,665.58 USD
▪ Leverage: 5x
Does anyone share the same view on this long position?
Note: This address has earned over 358,000 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +76.31% A while ago, an old classmate pulled me into a group
He posted profit charts every day
I kept watching and got tempted
I took a few hundred yuan to try
The first purchase was $BTC
Right after buying, it dropped
It dropped so much I was still checking my phone late at night
Later I tried $ETH
There are many things on the chain
The fees are also high
One operation wasted half a day
Then I heard people hype $SOL as fast
Transferred a small amount to play
It’s really fast
But also really risky
Some projects disappear just like that
After losing a few times, I learned my lesson
Don’t chase hot topics
Don’t follow trading calls
Don’t touch what you don’t understand
Write down your private keys yourself
Don’t give them to anyone who asks
Don’t click on unknown links
No matter how tempting airdrops are, don’t connect your wallet recklessly
Now I only use money I won’t mind losing
Just leave it there
Don’t get cocky when it rises
Don’t panic when it falls
There are many opportunities in this field
But even more traps
Surviving longer is more important than making a quick profit
Don’t borrow money
Don’t get emotional
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits
Leave the rest to time#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening?
#Microsoft releases next-generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high On the eve of CPI: 1.16 billion liquidations, the market falls first out of respect
Last night the crypto market fell first out of respect: BTC broke 82,000, 1.16 billion liquidations with over 90% longs, ETH dropped over 5%.
But this wave isn't just about crypto: Nasdaq 100 -0.71%, Philadelphia Semiconductor -2.67%, KOSPI intraday -4%. Falling together — all tied to the same rope called US Treasury yields.
30-year US Treasury at 5.70%, highest since 2002. Who still holds BTC when you can earn 5%+ risk-free? Tech stocks and crypto are similar assets: they rely on "future" stories, and when rates rise, everything gets discounted.
Options are counterintuitive: put options pile up at 76,000/78,000/80,000 strikes, but 7-day implied volatility dropped from 34.5% to 32% — volatility falls as price falls, no one really expects a big event tomorrow night. Defense is maxed out, but no bullets loaded.
Biggest divergence: Harker hawkish, CME bets 79.5% on no rate hike in October. Who's lying? We'll see at 20:30 tomorrow night.
Three numbers: Core CPI month-on-month expected 0.16%-0.21%, a 0.1% deviation equals the difference between 80,000 and 75,000; BTC resistance at 83,500-84,500, support at 81,000; ETH breaks 2,401, 553 million long positions liquidated.
Trading advice: don't heavily bet on direction before the data, reduce leverage on rebounds if your position is heavy. Tomorrow night at 20:30, will you be watching the market or waking up to see the results?
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 First, record the position of $ENA, then discuss the viewpoint: current price is 0.2136, about 6.93% away from the 1-hour support at 0.1988, and about 15.12% away from the resistance at 0.2459.
There are reasons for both bulls and bears on $ENA, but looking at the upper and lower boundaries, the comfortable range is actually quite limited. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both weak, with RSI values of 37 and 46 respectively.
I only keep one confirmation for an upward move — breaking through 0.2459; and only one condition to negate the upward move — falling below 0.1988. Other fluctuations are considered noise for now.
If you had to pick one validation point first, would you focus on confirming the resistance or the breakdown of support?
The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.Brothers, ZEC has dropped to 1212, down another 4.7% in 24 hours.
$ZEC $1,212
Since the peak at 1698, the pullback has exceeded 28%. But what’s really worth watching today isn’t the price, it’s the on-chain activity and the ETF moving in opposite directions.
Whales are buying, ETFs are selling.
Last week, a whale withdrew 26,070 ZEC from Binance and Kraken in one go, worth $31.93 million. Another big holder was even more aggressive, doubling their position to $66.75 million during the dip, sweeping 54,400 coins off the exchanges.
But the institutions are acting completely differently. The US ZEC spot ETF saw $124 million withdrawn, and Grayscale’s ZCSH shifted from buying pressure to selling pressure. Whales are taking coins off exchanges, ETFs are offloading coins — two groups bidding each other farewell at this level.
The NU7 upgrade is the next card. The testnet is already live, block time cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, with the mainnet target set for November 5. ZEC in the old Sprout pool will become invalid after the upgrade, so holders of old addresses need to act in advance.
Technically, 1,200 is the short-term lifeline; if it breaks, look for 1,100. Only if it holds can we talk about a rebound.
Discuss in the comments: Whales bottom-fishing or ETFs retreating, which do you trust?👇
#September CPI announcement imminent, Hamarak says further rate hikes are still needed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? Bitcoin 4-hour bearish signal reignites, ADX rises above 20
$BTC current price around 83410. 4-hour EMA20≈83088 pressing down on EMA50≈83423, ADX≈20.5, bearish momentum just returned; range still between 80961–84348. If it can't hold above 83400, look for 83100→82280/81700; only if it stabilizes and recovers above moving averages and ADX cools down can we consider bullish again. Don't lock in direction before Wednesday's inflation data.You really made me laugh. I shorted at the highest point, but after hitting my stop loss, it kept dropping without missing a single dollar... Then I went long again, and it was just a few dollars off from liquidating me. Hilarious 😂 Roller coaster 🎢RSR Long Position Strategy | ≤5x Leverage
Core Logic: Accelerated deflation narrative + RFC-1269 expected to burn 30% of supply, Burn Gauge already effective with zero unlocking, daily volume breakout past previous high
📍 Ambush Zones (divided into 3 levels)
① $0.0021- → 40% (current price/breakout retest zone)
② $0.00205- → 35% (intraday support + EMA7 overlap)
③ $0.00190- → 25% (deep pullback/previous platform defense line)
→ Average cost ≈ $0.00218
🛡️ Hard Stop Loss: $0.00178 (daily close below invalidates structure)
Stop loss range about 18%, leverage recommended ≤5x
🎯 Ladder Targets
• TP1 $0.00265 (+22%, previous high concentration zone) reduce 40%
• TP2 $0.00295 (+35%, psychological level) reduce another 35%
• TP3 $0.00340+ (+56%, RFC-1269 approval speculation) let remaining run
⚠️ Key Events/Observations
• RFC-1269 approval to burn 30 billion tokens = main uptrend trigger
• Burn Gauge reinvested quarterly, may front-run next voting
• Daily ATR about 15%, high volatility, control position size well $BTC
• RSI is hot, high risk chasing short-term highs, wait for pullback to buy $RSR $Entire market: 235 down / 35 up, $BTC $-0.7%, $ETH $-1.9%, $SOL $-4.4%——
$RSR rose 29% in 24 hours, currently at 0.0021.
This is not a catch-up rally, it's a breakthrough.
Yesterday, RSR surged 47% riding sector rotation, with a volume of 175 million tokens—200 times the normal average volume. Usually, when such volume appears, the next day is for selling off and crashing the price.
But today, not only did it not crash, it rose another 29%. The latest 4H candle (starting 12:00 CST) already released 10.5 million tokens, 40 times the average volume. This means: those who rushed in yesterday not only didn’t run away today, some even added more.
During the same period, the entire altcoin sector was falling—this shows RSR is following its own independent logic.
Looking at the 4H structure: 0.0020 has become a new support platform. The upper shadow at 0.0023 last night was initially judged as selling pressure, but now looks like accumulation and rotation. $RSR hit a new high against the trend on the weakest day in the whole market; this signal is worth watching.
Do you think RSR can break 0.003 in this wave? You are trading your own perspective.
Early in the morning, BTC dropped a bit over 1 point, ETH plunged 5 points, and the market was all red.
I instinctively wanted to trade along with the market. After some selection, I finally chose $STRK.
Unfortunately, I wasn't very satisfied with its position.
But I thought, trust the feeling, a slightly bad position doesn't matter.
Then I entered with 10x leverage at a relatively poor position.
It turned out my dissatisfaction with the position was justified.
Within minutes, a 4% reverse big green candle almost blew me up.
Watching the losses accumulate, unable to bear the inner pressure, I finally exited at a 30% loss.
I washed my face, calmed down, checked market news, wanting to know why ETH dropped so much.
Later I found out it was affected by a UK court ruling.
Personally, I feel that for this level of impact, such a big drop was really unwarranted.
It was purely the market's pessimism these past two days, emotions were amplified.
Logically, it should be corrected.
So I turned to the market's highest token $CT, entering at 6 points.
It did not disappoint my expectations, rising to 8 points.
At this point, looking at the chart, I felt it was about time for a pullback, so I chose to close the position, thinking to re-enter after the pullback.
But it stubbornly did not fall back.
I thought: doesn't my closing position action basically mean bearish?
I asked myself, would I dare to open a short now?
I didn't dare.
Would I dare to continue going long?
I didn't dare either.
I could only watch helplessly as $CT surged to 20 points $SNDK hit stop loss twice yesterday, and today I covered some long positions. I really didn't expect SanDisk to drop so much overnight. I originally thought it would stop falling at 1520, but it kept dropping below 1500. Recently, AI development has been below expectations, dragging down storage, but I think these are just small fluctuations in a high-growth industry and it will return to normal later. So even though SanDisk fell from 1900 to 1400 this time, I still dare to add positions against the trend. From a short-term perspective, a rebound should come soon. This morning, Changxin Technology dropped 5 points but is now about to turn positive. Ideally, SanDisk should also follow with a rebound tonight. Swing traders should seize the rebound opportunity tonight. Officials call for rate hikes, but the market just doesn't buy it! Tomorrow's CPI release will show who's right
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM sharp, the September CPI will be announced. The most interesting thing now isn't the data itself, but rather—on one side, Fed officials hawkishly say "we still need to raise rates," while on the other side, the market votes with real money saying "you dare to raise?"
Cleveland Fed President Mester just dropped a statement yesterday: inflation is still hot, so rate hikes will continue without question. But CME data slapped that in the face: the probability of holding steady in October has shot up to 79.5%.
In other words: officials say "I think we should raise," the market says "I bet you won't." Both sides are arguing fiercely, just waiting for tomorrow's CPI to be the judge.
Institutions are also being quite sneaky in their forecasts: overall CPI might jump from 3.4% to 3.7% due to rising oil prices, which sounds scary. But core CPI month-over-month might actually drop from 0.3% to 0.2%—basically "scary on the surface, cooling underneath." This kind of data is neither clearly up nor down; how to interpret it depends entirely on investor sentiment.
As for me, I've already unloaded my leverage. Betting heavily on direction at this critical moment is like crossing the street blindfolded. You think the data will be mild, but it surprises on the upside; you think a bombshell is coming, but it meets expectations. Either way, you're right only half the time, so better to sit on the sidelines and watch.
Honestly, every CPI release in recent months has felt like New Year's Eve, with everyone glued to their screens waiting for the announcement. And the result? Prices neither rise much nor fall much—just a lot of volatility. The real money is never made by betting on the data, but by acting after the dust settles.
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM, the whole nation will be watching the big show start on time. I've got my little stool ready, just waiting to see which side this CPI will support—whether it props up Mester or smacks him hard in the face.
Three takeaways I've figured out:
1. Officials can talk tough all they want, but don't take it too seriously. The market's real-money odds are more reliable than any speech.
2. Don't bet your net worth before the data is out. An 80% probability sounds safe, but the 20% surprise is what really kills.
3. Being a bit slow to react won't lose you big money; betting on the wrong direction will. Instead of nervously shaking, better to wait for the results before making a move. Short sellers were "reverse liquidated," with BTC and ETH as the main battlegrounds
In the past 24 hours, the liquidation scale has clearly tilted toward the short side. BTC total liquidations reached $52.5 million, with shorts accounting for $42.71 million, over 80%; ETH total liquidations were $53.78 million, with shorts at $42.42 million, nearly 80%. On a shorter timeframe, ETH's 12-hour short liquidations hit $18.63 million, surpassing BTC's $9.67 million, making it the fiercest battleground in this round of "short sweeps." Combined, shorts were wiped out by over $85 million.
XRP's volume is small, with 24-hour liquidations at $2.07 million, shorts at $1.49 million, still biased toward the short side. Although the absolute value is limited, the structure indicates this is not a single-coin anomaly but a concentrated effort to squeeze out short positions in the market.
The problem arises: intensive short liquidations often bring passive buying, driving price pulses upward. But is this kind of rise a true reversal or a liquidity hunt-induced bull trap? If the bulls cannot continue to absorb volume after the liquidation peak, the risk of a short-term pullback remains. In the next few hours, whether BTC and ETH can hold the dense liquidation zones will determine if this round marks the start of a trend or just another trap.Thanks to my fellow traders for the concern. If I can break even before this evening, I will definitely treat myself to a pork knuckle rice meal!
Good afternoon, brothers, October 13th, 12:30.
The market finally pulled back a bit this morning. The floating loss on my three deeply stuck long positions has finally narrowed, temporarily out of ICU.
Saw a fellow trader's message this morning: "Whether you hold or not doesn't matter, if you hold on, you get a bowl of pork knuckle rice." That hit hard! To get into the crypto circle, I drank plain water this morning, had fast food at noon, and usually just steamed buns with pickled vegetables.
If I can really hold on today, I must grit my teeth and add a pork knuckle rice dinner!
Regarding operations: I closed my $CL short position this morning. Although the direction was right, the funding rate was too high, eating up 20% of my profits. Such low liquidity tokens can't be held; better to run first.
Current strategy remains unchanged: hold tight and wait for CPI! As long as tomorrow night's CPI surprises on the downside and inflation cools, short covering will give me a chance to escape. Holding positions is not reckless; it's waiting for the data to land before deciding life or death.
If you successfully hold your positions, what will you reward yourself with?
Feel free to share.
I think pork knuckle rice is a good choice, Longjiang pork knuckle rice!
$BTC $ETH - Upper resistance: 2,566 (MA10) and 2,578 high point, above that is the dense moving average zone between 2,610-2,626
- Lower support: 2,480-2,500, followed by the 2,407 low point
- Holding above 2,500, the rebound is likely to continue; if it falls back below 2,480, the rebound is considered a failure
🧠 Midday insights
1. Yesterday mentioned that oversold conditions would lead to a rebound, which was confirmed today, but be more cautious at resistance levels during the rebound and avoid chasing the rally
2. The search bar hotspot mentioned the upcoming September CPI release, with Federal Reserve officials stating further rate hikes are needed; data around this time tends to be highly volatile. Additionally, Tom Lee warned that the sharp drop in the South Korean stock market could bring short-term shocks to the crypto market, so watch out for a pullback this afternoon
3. Manage risk first during the rebound, and don’t increase your position size just because prices have risen
⚠️ The above is only a personal review and does not constitute investment advice. Contract trading carries very high risk, so please control your position size carefully! XDP is indeed the hottest on Base today, with trading volume surging to over 100 million dollars, while the market cap is only a bit over 20 million. This ratio looks somewhat absurd.
From what I see, it’s essentially something built around xRP yields. After the token was issued on Base, it got hyped up.
Trading is very active, with buying and selling roughly balanced, but the pool liquidity is only about two million. This volume can easily crash the price badly at any time.
From my perspective, it seems more like short-term funds chasing hotspots on Base rather than having deep fundamental support.
The hype is understandable, but if you really want to get in, you have to weigh the risks yourself. Don’t just get carried away by the trading volume. ￥￥￥$XDP ARB is weaker than BTC and ETH in the updated data. Positive news for the ecosystem includes integrations related to xStocks and the USDG stablecoin; however, good news about the network does not automatically create buying pressure for the ARB token.  Recovery scenario: Holding the recent bottom near 0.184 USD and breaking back above 0.20 USD. Downside scenario: Losing the bottom near 0.184 USD, opening the risk of continuing to test lower price levels. What to watch: Volume, altcoin money flow, network activity, and token unlock schedule. Viewpoint: there is no basis yet to call this Midday Summary｜V-shaped rebound recovers 83,000, but it's not time to call a reversal yet
Account update: Total assets back to 100.36U, today's profit +1.49U (+1.50%). Rebounded from last night's low of 64.35U, but this is a recovery after a pullback, not a turnaround. The account hasn't returned to principal yet, so stability remains the focus today.
📊 Bitcoin $BTC ｜Current price 83,479
Intraday low touched 80,961, then pulled back to recover 83,000, up 2.04% in 24 hours. MA5 and MA30 around 82,900 have been reclaimed, KDJ at 38-39, RSI6 back to 51, bearish momentum temporarily eased. But the upper MA10, MA20 (83,700-83,960) and 24-hour high 84,348 have not been broken, so this is a rebound, not a trend reversal.
- Resistance above: 83,700-84,000, then 84,348
- Support below: 82,900, then the low of 80,961 and the 80,000 level
- A strong close above 84,000 is bullish; falling below 82,900 remains bearish
📊 Ethereum $ETH ｜Current price 2,515
Ethereum is stronger than Bitcoin, up 2.81% in 24 hours, rebounded from intraday low of 2,407, retook MA5 and MA60 (around 2,497), key level 2,480-2,500 reclaimed yesterday. KDJ still low, RSI6 at 42, repair space remains From 2020 to 2026, the crypto world has repeatedly proven: buying coins is just the beginning; being able to keep them safe and accessible is what really counts. On CEX: Fear of theft, freezing, and misappropriation; if you use leverage, you also have to worry about liquidation. You think the assets are in your account, but when trouble comes, they might actually be debts. Using a hardware wallet: If it's not open source, you worry about a black box; even if it is open source, you can't guarantee the physical device hasn't been tampered with. Components might be added! You buy a safe, but someone installs a bugging device inside. There are also fake devices, swapped devices, preset mnemonic phrases, physical attacks, and fake companion software. Add blind signing, malicious authorizations, forgotten PINs, lost backups, forgotten passphrases. You might defend against others but end up successfully defending against yourself. Using a PC wallet: Fake installers, trojans, remote control, clipboard hijacking take turns attacking. Wallet files get stolen, weak passwords are cracked offline; hard drive failure or system reinstall without backup is another dead end. Problems with random number generation can happen again; a long mnemonic phrase might not save you. Using a Web wallet: Custodial ones require trusting the platform; non-custodial ones still require trusting the code delivered to your browser. Fake domains, search ads, official site tampering, malicious scripts can all turn "restore wallet" into "hand over secrets." You think the webpage looks the same, so it must be the same wallet. Using plugin wallets: Fake ones steal, real ones can be poisoned. In 2023, Ledger Connect Kit had issues; at the end of 2025, Trust Wallet's official plugin version 2.68 was compromised.Leveraged longs, a day of being ground down 😵
Yesterday before the US stock market opened, the crypto market already knelt. Once the US market opened, selling pressure intensified, and the scene became quite ugly.
In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $785 million, with longs accounting for 88% — on average, 9 longs went down with 1 short. BTC liquidations hit $165 million, ETH $167 million, SOL over $60 million. Leveraged longs were collectively carried away (╥﹏╥)
Key points:
· $BTC lowest at 81,032, just $632 above the previous low of 80,400
· $ETH broke below 2500, lowest at 2,409
· $SOL lowest at 101, the 100 mark is right ahead
The most dangerous thing isn’t the drop itself, but the negative feedback loop of “price drop → liquidation → intensified selling pressure.” Once the chain of forced liquidations starts, prices are driven by leverage, temporarily disconnected from fundamentals.
But on the other hand, liquidation data ≠ spot market exit, and definitely ≠ a bottom signal. After contracts are cleaned out, the spot market will still lie where it lies. Calling a bottom now is not much different from catching a flying knife 🗡️
What do you think, will it continue to dip? 🤔#BTC and ETH Spot ETFs See Simultaneous Outflows, Is Institutional Demand Weakening? Impact on $BTC and $ETH?
📊 Outflow Scale
In the first week of October, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $681 million, while Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $635 million. However, Bitcoin ETFs still recorded a cumulative net inflow of $57.6 billion this year, with net assets exceeding $100 billion, indicating that institutional holdings remain solid.
🔍 Core Reason: Interest Rate Pressure
The direct driver of this round of outflows is the surge in U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5.5%, with oil prices breaking $100 and a stronger dollar, all of which suppress high-risk assets. The capital withdrawal is an active reduction by investors amid macro uncertainty, not forced liquidation. Once yields decline, the willingness for capital to flow back is usually strong.
⚠️ Main Impacts
· Short-term price pressure: ETF redemptions convert into spot sales, directly depressing coin prices. BTC briefly tested a two-week low, and ETH dropped near the $2400 support level.
· Sentiment contagion: Institutional fund outflows combined with large on-chain holders transferring tokens can trigger "resonant selling," amplifying market panic.
· Key observation signals: If the 10-year Treasury yield remains high, outflows may continue; conversely, if yields fall and Bitcoin holds support near $80,000, institutional demand is likely to recover. The CPI release matters less as a single inflation verdict than as a test of breadth. Energy may lift the headline rate while a slower core monthly reading points the other way. With pause odds near 79.5%, the data could force markets to reassess whether policy restraint is enough, with rates and the dollar likely setting the first reaction.
#SepCPIHikeWatch $RSR SPIKED TO 0.003150, THEN PULLED BACK TO 0.002178. One giant green 4h candle left the 0.001473 low far behind, and red candles followed. I respect where price settles more than where it spikes.
Is 0.002178 a base forming, or just a pause?10.13 Tuesday Yang Fan's BTC and ETH Analysis
BTC is currently around 83,200, ETH around 2,507. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $681 million, and Ethereum ETFs have had net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling 542 million. BlackRock's ETHA had a weekly outflow of 477 million, the largest source of selling pressure. Institutions are still withdrawing, and funds have not returned.
On the macro side, the September FOMC minutes were hawkish; 9 of 18 members believe another rate hike is needed this year. Wednesday (October 15) September CPI is the biggest variable this week. If core CPI month-over-month reaches 0.3%, rate hike bets will revive, and BTC may further decline.
Technically, the 84,500-85,000 range is a strong short-term resistance for BTC, with multiple rejections confirming its validity. There is a need for short-term oversold correction, but no reversal signals are seen yet, so it can only be considered a rebound.
Trading reference:
BTC: Short directly at 83,400-84,000, target 82,500; if broken, look to 81,500; if further broken, look to 80,500.
ETH: Short directly at 2,540-2,520, target 2,480; if broken, look to 2,440; if further broken, look to 2,400.
$BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $ZEC crashed through 200 dollars overnight, and I chose to add to my position
Last night ZEC dropped from 1,348 to 1,122, 200 dollars gone just like that. Others' stop-loss points became my entry points: position increased from 0.03 all the way to 0.8, with 50x leverage, liquidation price at 1,126—only 4 dollars away from this morning's lowest point.
At the time of writing, ZEC bounced back to 1,218, floating profit +12.7U, the biggest gain this week. But honestly: this is not skill, it's gambling. The cost of winning once is developing a habit of losing everything.
On the chart, the low at 1,122 did not break the previous low from 10/8, so the bulls still have support; 1,237 is the next key level, only if it holds above this will this correction be considered over.
My discipline: no more adding positions before holding above 1,237; stop-loss set at cost 1,194, the worst outcome for this trade is breaking even, no turning into a losing trade.
How much leverage have you used at bottom-fishing at most? Let's discuss in the comments.
Risk warning: personal live trading record, not investment advice, high leverage can lead to liquidation at any time, please do not copy trades.$ETH This ID's view: Go long after the price pulls back to 2480 and stabilizes, stop loss at 2410
From the perspective of Chan theory structure: The previous 2405 formed strong support. After dropping to 2407 yesterday, it quickly rebounded and surged, breaking through the weekend's consolidation price center, indicating strong willingness to go long at the support level
From the Wyckoff perspective: The rapid drop to 2407 released much less bearish momentum than the previous drop from the same price to 2405, indicating that this was profit-taking for risk avoidance, not distribution selling
Key observation: Whether the price stabilizes within the central price range or quickly moves away from the centerHarmak's statement that "further rate hikes are still needed" sends a clear hawkish signal on the eve of the September CPI release.
She directly points out the core issue: inflationary pressure is no longer confined to a single area but has spread more broadly. The demand shock brought by AI development, increased willingness of companies to pass on costs, and persistently high inflation all raise the risk of an "inflation mindset."
Harmak believes that policy must remain restrictive, interest rates need to be higher, and she favors small, quick steps to avoid being forced into a large correction later.
This means that even though recent employment data has slowed, there are still voices within the Fed that believe it is too early to relax. Although there was already a rate hike in September, she implies that the current stance may still be insufficient to quickly bring inflation back to target.
For the market, this reinforces expectations of "possible further rate hikes within the year" and adds uncertainty to the October meeting.
If the CPI data again shows core stickiness or energy transmission, views like Harmak's may gain more resonance; if there is a clear cooling, hawkish pressure may ease.
Regardless of the outcome, Fed communication has shifted from "whether to hike rates" to "how to more effectively maintain restrictiveness." Investors need to reassess the interest rate path and asset pricing, especially in rate-sensitive sectors. Volatility may increase before the data is released. #September CPI release imminent, Harmak says further rate hikes are still needed September CPI data is about to be released, with the market's attention highly focused. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack's latest statement is clear: current monetary policy still needs to be tightened further to push inflation back to the 2% target as soon as possible.
She pointed out that inflation has been above the target for several consecutive years, and the biggest risk is that the "inflation mindset" may gradually become entrenched. As business input costs rise, more and more companies are passing prices on to consumers. If demand-side pressures (especially AI-related investments and overall economic resilience) do not cool down, inflation may remain elevated for a longer period. Hammack emphasized a preference for "small, more frequent" rate adjustments rather than waiting for pressures to accumulate before making large corrections, as this is more conducive to businesses and households planning ahead.
She did not lock in a rate hike at the October meeting but clearly stated that rates need to be at a higher level to sufficiently restrict demand. The financial environment is currently still neutral and requires more tightening. The labor market is relatively stable, giving the Fed more room to focus on inflation.
This CPI will be one of the key data points before the October policy meeting. The market has partially priced in a possible rate hike before the end of the year, but core inflation stickiness, energy price volatility, and demand resilience will determine whether the path accelerates. As a voting member this year, Hammack's hawkish signals are worth attention. After the data release, expectations and pricing may be adjusted again, and investors need to closely track core components and service inflation performance. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Bitcoin and Ethereum show strong V-shaped rebound after the second probe
Be patient and hold positions. The base positions entered at 81000 can all be kept without moving. Observe whether the resistance at 84200 can be broken later.
If it can't break through, you can try shorting for a short term.
Overall, still mainly favor low long positions.$BTC is currently hovering around 83450, down 0.35% in the last 24 hours, with an overall bearish trend. But I've been watching the funding rate for a while, and it's ridiculously low, indicating that both bulls and bears are cautious, and no one is willing to pay interest.
This kind of market is the most deceptive. If you short expecting a drop, it can spike up at any moment; if you go long expecting a bottom, it will slowly grind down on you. I once lost 200,000U in this kind of situation—seeing a drop and shorting, only to be taken out by a rebound without even having time to set a stop loss.
Now my strategy is simple: a small 5000U position, lightly going long near the 83090 support, with a stop loss at 82800, and the first target at 84000. If it breaks below 83000, I switch to short without holding the position.
When the funding rate is extremely low, it often signals an upcoming market reversal. Don't bet heavily on direction; try small positions to test, and add more once the trend is clear. Never hold a losing position without a stop loss—staying alive is more important than anything. $ #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed Bitcoin has formed a typical deep V-shaped bottoming rebound pattern, with a rapid dip followed by short-term capital replenishment and short covering driving the price back up.
This rebound was anticipated early on and is a technical correction after overselling during the downtrend, not a bottom reversal. The overall bearish trend rhythm remains unchanged.
The deep V pattern easily creates the market illusion of "the price can't fall further and must reverse," but essentially it cleans out low-level panic selling and some short-term short positions.
After the rally, heavy resistance still exists above. This rebound only provides an opportunity for a second high short position. After consolidation, the bearish trend will continue to unfold!
Brothers, after covering shorts at 82700, it should be around 83000 now. Still hold on! Target is a break below 81000!#Microsoft Releases Next-Generation AI Chip, Stock Hits Yearly High
Microsoft is truly determined this time, unveiling its next-generation self-developed AI chip Maia 300.
Announced officially on October 12, with plans for large-scale deployment starting in 2027. Microsoft claims that the AI inference efficiency per unit of power is about 40% higher than leading GPU systems, and rack-level throughput can reach up to 7 times that of the previous generation. Upon the news, Microsoft's stock rose 1.14% that day, closing at $541.15, setting a new historical closing high.
What’s the impact?
First, the computing power market landscape is changing. Microsoft developing its own chip aims primarily to reduce dependence on external GPU suppliers and lower computing costs. Major companies are moving away from Nvidia, which in the long term could diversify computing power supply and make prices more reasonable. But in the short term, since leading players’ self-developed chips are not yet widely deployed, external GPU procurement will still be competitive, and hardware costs won’t drop immediately.
Second, the AI concept in the crypto space will further accelerate its differentiation. Look at giants like Microsoft, investing real money into self-developed chips, steadily moving toward the computing power infrastructure. Those AI concept projects that only write white papers and have no actual products will die off even faster. Capital will increasingly concentrate on targets with real computing power and practical applications.
What’s your take?
$BTC $ETH Institutions are scooping up, so why is BTC still sluggish? 🤔
Institutions focus on the “future,” while short-term traders watch the “intraday.” Morgan Stanley’s MSBT Bitcoin ETF has already accumulated 10,639 coins, about $880 million — this isn’t surfing, it’s long-term seed planting. 🌱
So why is the price still under pressure? Three cold winds are blowing together:
🌍 Unfavorable macro environment: Middle East pushes oil prices up, Brent crude once surged to $102; U.S. Treasury yields skyrocketed, 10-year at 5.36%, 30-year at 5.73%, both hitting 24-year highs, squeezing risk assets hard.
💸 ETF hemorrhaging: On October 7, Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $485 million, the largest since June 25; from October to now, BTC and ETH ETFs combined have nearly $1 billion outflow, funds are clearly withdrawing.
🦅 Fed hawkish tilt: September minutes show most officials think another rate hike may be needed before year-end, with AI investments and energy prices fueling inflation.
To translate: institutions are betting on fiat depreciation in three to five years, hedge funds are profiting from this month’s price spreads. Some watch fiscal deficits and sovereign credit, others watch U.S. Treasury yields and rate hike paths. BTC is caught in the middle: short-term drained by macro factors, long-term supported by institutions. 📉➡️📈ETH bounced back from 2407 to 2512, but the ETF has been selling for ten consecutive days
Earlier it was still at 2407, and in the blink of an eye, it returned near 2512. ETH made quite a strong rebound. However, looking at the 24-hour period, it is still down overall. A rebound that pulls people out of the water doesn’t mean they’ve already reached the shore.
More strikingly, yesterday the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of about $85.4 million, marking the tenth consecutive day of outflows. The contract fee rate is almost zero, and the open interest decreased by about 1.4% in one day. It currently doesn’t look like bulls are crowding in; it seems more like selling pressure has temporarily eased.
This Thursday, developers will discuss the upgrade directions for Glamsterdam and Hegotá. It’s a discussion about the roadmap, not an immediate upgrade deployment. There is hope in the news, but the funds have not yet cast their real votes with actual money.
Whether it can hold steady around 2500 and whether ETF outflows will stop are more worth watching than a sudden sharp rebound. For those trading contracts, do you dare to treat 2500 as an observation point now, or will you wait for the capital flow to turn first? $ETH The big coin keeps going back and forth, what is it trying to do? It looks easy to trade, but once you do, it fails, right?
The big coin retraced all the way down to 80985, then recovered above the 81270 support level, and immediately started a rapid rebound. Doesn't this scene and feeling seem very familiar?
The last round was exactly like this! It also recovered like this! What we need to do is find relative patterns! Last round, I bought more around 82000–82500, and this round too. Damn, I held it back... floating ball, but luckily this time it came back quickly with no casualties!
So for today's intraday trend, here’s how we see it:
Key levels: 83132–82180, just use these as a reference!
Trading advice:
Go long near 82000–82500,
Targets: 83766–84583
If no opportunity is given, then we take a retracement. Remember, it must be a retracement, don’t be greedy! The range is 84300–85000, place a short order! After finishing, run with your pants up! Don’t hesitate, if you get caught, it will be very painful! $BTC "Three Candlesticks, One Slap"
At midnight, $BTC was still at 84,200. I thought waiting a few more seconds could earn me a bit more. But then a big bearish candle slammed 82,480 onto the screen, dropping 1.4%. The unrealized profit just now was like a cooked duck, flapping away, and it even snatched some of my rice along the way. The profit and loss line rose from my feet to my head; I stared at it like staring at my own greed.
$SOL was even more straightforward. Sliding down from 116, I thought it was a step, reached out to catch it, placed a limit order at 112.5, current price 110.8, down 2.3%. Missed the cheap catch, ended up with a handful of flying knives. The market maker may not know me, but the candlesticks seem to.
$ETH is still the same, 2,515, down 0.5%. It touched 2,560 then softened back, added two more hands, just following the market's breath. It doesn't kill me, just grinds me down.
In the end, the market punishes greed and slowness. Next time with unrealized profits, take half off the table first, push the rest to breakeven. Meat on the bone can't be let fly again.
For personal review only, not investment advice.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure?
#Voice of Trading: Your experience deserves to be heard BTC fell below 81,000 then pulled back to 83,000, ETF is still withdrawing
The scariest moment in the Asian session: BTC once dropped below 81,000, then quickly pulled back above 83,000. The Korean stock market fell over 6%, chip stocks were all green, Nasdaq futures were weak, but the crypto market didn’t seem to dive along this time.
But don’t rush to call a reversal. Yesterday, the US spot BTC ETF still had a net outflow of $65.4 million. The price bounced from the low point, but institutional funds didn’t turn positive simultaneously. Contract rates were slightly positive, and open interest decreased by about 1% compared to yesterday, more like leverage was pulling back a bit first.
Tomorrow the US CPI will be released, and oil prices and inflation expectations are still causing disruption. 81,000 was the recent low, and there is resistance above 84,000. Let’s first see if it can hold, no rush to conclude a rebound.
If you hold contracts, will you keep positions before CPI or reduce leverage first? $BTC Having lunch at noon, a group friend suddenly threw out a question: Can I get on board with RSR?
I was a bit stunned. This coin just appeared on the hot list, up 25% in 24 hours, with trading volume 27.8 times the usual, current price 0.00207. But when you ask what it actually does, none of the usual daily tipsters in the group can give a proper story. No narrative, no new features, purely a fund-driven gamble inside—whoever is slow to catch it gets hit.
I replied: First tell me why you want to buy it. He said because it’s rising. Alright, I know that reason well; I thought the same three years ago and paid my tuition.
This coin’s 24-hour rise on the hot list is really good, and it’s up 20.9% over 7 days with obvious volume increase. But remember how those speculative coins trapped you last year—a surge with volume, then a half-year slow decline without even a rebound. If you want to play, use money for a meal, treat it like buying a lottery ticket, don’t bet heavily. I’m holding back, saving bullets for when there’s a real story. $RSR Is there at least one more weekly-level pullback for Bitcoin and Ethereum? It's really too early to bottom-fish now!
Inflation data hasn't been released yet, but the market has already taken a hit in advance. BTC has yet to reclaim 85,000, ETH is under pressure simultaneously, and the rebound is weak. The biggest danger now is not missing out, but blindly bottom-fishing.
Three signals to watch out for:
Macro pressure: Middle East tensions are escalating, oil prices and inflation risks are intensifying, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, combined with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, risk assets continue to be under pressure. CPI and PPI have not yet been announced, so uncertainty remains in the market.
ETF continuous outflows: From October 1 to 9, BTC spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $386 million; ETH had a cumulative net outflow of about $645 million as of October 12, indicating weak spot buying support.
Concentrated long liquidations: Approximately $785 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, 172,662 people forcibly liquidated, longs account for about 88%, with a long-to-short liquidation amount ratio close to 9:1. Concentrated leverage clearing may further amplify the downtrend.
With the triple pressure of macro, capital, and liquidations overlapping, whether the weekly-level correction has ended still needs confirmation.
Better to miss a rebound than to rush to catch a falling knife. Wait for price stabilization, volume improvement, and spot buying to return before considering the next move. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#SeptemberCPIReleaseImminent Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMCQ3RevenueHitsRecordHigh ProfitPerformanceToBeRevealed #BTCandETHSpotETFOutflowsSimultaneous HasInstitutionalDemandWeakened? When blood pressure drops to 2.19, family members often still ask, "Is it a cold?" It's not a cold. It's cardiac output failure, and what I see is a valve at 95% of the Bollinger Band position already torn—this is the most dangerous image that intraoperative ultrasound can capture: the price is stuck at the upper band, with only 0.4% margin above, while the mid-cycle Bollinger Band reading of 116% means the vessel wall has been stretched beyond anatomical limits, and the clamp position at -1.1% is right overhead.
A 24-hour fluctuation of 5.09% is not ordinary arrhythmia. This is a precursor to ventricular fibrillation. The 1-hour RSI has surged to 68.1, the long cycle to 61.8, both channels simultaneously entering the sympathetic storm zone, and the trading signal clearly says SELL—when myocardial oxygen consumption and perfusion pressure begin to diverge, only amateurs continue to administer inotropes. A short-cycle RSI over 64 indicates insufficient anesthesia depth, and a long cycle approaching 62 means extracorporeal circulation cooling is too slow; combined, these two indicators mean what we call "looks okay, but actually sliding irreversibly on the table."
Diagnosis: This is acute right heart overload failure, not ischemia. Shorting is the only surgical approach.
📉 Short:
Entry: 2.26 (current price +3.4%, wait for pullback to confirm valve insufficiency)
Take Profit 1: 1.98 (-9.5%, first assistant sends pathology)
Take Profit 2: 2.00 (-9.5%, simultaneous ventricular closure)
Stop Loss: 2.51 (+14.6%, immediate release if major bleeding occurs)
Why place the stop loss so far at 14.6%? Because in cardiac surgery, the worst is premature hemostatic clamping that turns a repairable tear into an un-sutureable necrosis. 2.51 is the safe boundary for aortic occlusion; if breached, the entire surgical field floods. The target range of 9.5% space exactly matches the complete perfusion drop from the current price to the lower Bollinger Band—this is not speculation, but an anatomical path already mapped by preoperative CT.
Don't perform extracorporeal circulation in an emotional state. Price decline is just a line on the ECG; the real lesion is the short-term compensatory failure of systolic blood flow. Those who hesitate while hemodynamics are still stable will have no second chance when cardiac tamponade occurs on the table.
Suture complete, close the chest.$ZEC SPIKED TO 1,349.09, DUMPED TO 1,123.33, THEN BOUNCED TO 1,217.20 ON THE 1H CHART. Today shows +4.29%, yet 7D still reads -10.97%.
I won't let one green day erase a red week. Can the 1,123.33 wick hold as a floor, or was it just a flush?Today is the last trading day for Bitwise's DOGE ETF; liquidation starts tomorrow, and on the 22nd, the money will be returned to the remaining investors. The assets have dropped from 2.5 million seed funds to only 725,000.
When I saw this news, my first reaction was that it was over, maybe a crash was coming.
But after looking again, I found something interesting. There are still other DOGE ETFs running in the US market, like Grayscale's GDOG and 21Shares' TDOG, which haven't closed. Moreover, the entire DOGE ETF saw a net inflow of $327,000 last week, marking the third consecutive week of money flowing in.
One closes, others remain open.
What really stunned me was another piece of data. The spot flow of DOGE flipped from net inflow to net outflow in the past week, with a week-on-week change of 599%, about $57 million withdrawn from exchanges. Many people see this number and panic sell, but think about it: if $57 million worth of DOGE was dumped on the market, the price would have crashed already. It hasn't. The money most likely moved from exchanges to cold wallets, just staying in a different place.
I'm watching this signal for $DOGE.