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Stablecoin growth faces challenges, is there still a chance for the next altcoin rally?
Circle is about to release its Q3 earnings report, and USDC once experienced redemptions exceeding issuance. What the market truly cares about is not the scale but whether growth can be converted into profit.
Looking at the crypto market, BTC (the big brother) is around $77,643, ETH (the slow aristocrat) about $2,296, SOL about $93.18. XRP and PEPE have strengthened in the short term, but SOL and ZEC remain under pressure, showing clear altcoin divergence.
My view: Stablecoins are the lifeblood of the market, but capital flow does not mean capital has entered. Earnings reports will show realization, and the market will show support.
Don’t rush to chase hot topics; watch volume for breakouts and watch support for pullbacks. Real opportunities are often reserved for those with patience!
Personal market record sharing, not investment advice.
$BTC $ZEC $SOL
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ $TAO at $226 👀
Two years of lower highs. A rising support line. Price is getting squeezed into a decisive zone.
A breakout could open the path toward $500, with $900–$1,000 as an extreme bull-case scenario—not a guarantee.
The AI narrative is everywhere, but conviction gets tested when the chart looks ugly.
Will TAO finally break this compression, or lose rising support first?Elon Musk spent $446 million to support the Republican Party! With the U.S. midterm elections coming, is BTC about to change again?
Brothers, the U.S. midterm elections officially kick off on November 3! This time, it's not just the two parties fighting for Congress; Wall Street and tech billionaires are also betting big!
The most outrageous is Musk! As of October 23, political donations totaled about $446 million, mainly supporting the Republican Party! Soros's camp also invested over $100 million, and Bloomberg is also pouring money to support the Democrats!
With money burning like this, the Republicans might not necessarily hold on!
First scenario: Republicans hold both chambers, making it possibly easier for Trump to push policies later, which could boost sentiment in the crypto market!
Second scenario: Democrats take both chambers, escalating policy battles, and BTC might face short-term pressure!
Third scenario: The two parties split control of the chambers, limiting policy progress but possibly reducing uncertainty from radical policies.
My judgment: This time, I’m not betting on the election results but am more wary of BTC pumping then dumping based on news!
Don’t forget, it’s not uncommon for positive news to be priced in early and then realized with a pullback!
Who do you think will take Congress this time? Will $BTC $ETH $ZEC rise first or fall first? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $SOL
One thing was buried in the previous few lines: Bullish has set the initial network for tokenizing stocks as Solana, Aptos, and Ethereum. The press release did not mention any price reaction.
On the same day, there was another report: about 3,600 Binance-stolen SOL entered the HitBTC hot wallet. While stocks are being moved onto the chain, stolen coins are being funneled out, all happening within the same hour.
SOL climbed back from 90.79 to 93.2, up 0.8% in 24 hours. But the 1-hour volume shrank from 775,000 to 116,000. The fee rate is -0.0009%, slightly negative. Holdings are $337 million, a bit more than yesterday's $326 million.
Holdings increased, volume shrank, fee rate slightly negative. This combination looks like shorts are covering, not longs buying. Without volume returning, the 93 level is just a rebound.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Midterm Crypto Outlook: 3 Key Signals
1. Congress: Watch House and Senate control. Republican control could favor crypto legislation; a Democratic sweep may slow it.
2. $BTC : Watch Bitcoin’s reaction to election uncertainty and interest rates.
3. $ETH vs SOL: $BTC may show more resilience, while SOL could face higher volatility depending on the outcome.
Bottom Line: Don't chase the first post-election move. Watch the expectation
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook $BTC
Breaking news says IBIT had a net redemption of $405 million in one day, the largest since June. According to the usual script, this should be a signal to dump. But BTC climbed back from 76386 to 77652, still in the green over 24 hours.
On the other hand, more interestingly: after Binance was hacked for 6.3 billion, there was a net inflow of 2.3 billion within 24 hours. ETFs are withdrawing, but money is moving into exchanges. What’s withdrawing is allocation funds; what’s moving in are those ready to act.
Look at the details. The 1-hour trading volume shrank from 5972 coins to 1501 coins, price didn’t drop. The fee rate is still +0.01%, and the $2.58 billion open interest basically didn’t move.
My judgment: this wave is short covering, not new money entering. I won’t add positions before and after the election, let the volume speak.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The United States is currently in a policy negotiation window following the conclusion of the midterm elections, showing an overall pattern of decent macroeconomic data but a highly polarized society. The labor market remains resilient, but inflation stickiness remains high, with rents and energy costs continuously squeezing ordinary people's incomes. The public's real experience is much worse than the surface data, consumer confidence is weak, high interest rates suppress corporate expansion, the AI-driven market trend is increasingly volatile, and the market is highly sensitive to policy directions.
Politically, party polarization continues to deepen. If the Republican Party loses the House majority, subsequent administrative order implementation will face significantly increased resistance, and the ongoing tussle between the two parties will continue to constrain governance efficiency. On the foreign front, the approach of strong unilateralism and tariffs continues, while being persistently dragged down by multiple regional conflicts, with fiscal deficit pressure remaining high. For the financial markets, the election brings policy uncertainty combined with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, making short-term volatility prone to amplification, and the opportunity cost of risk-averse trades continues to rise. $BTC $ETH $SOL Even with Apple’s revenue exceeding expectations, AAPL bulls and bears are still battling
Apple’s FY2026 Q4 revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $114.5 billion, with iPhone revenue up about 17%, both surpassing expectations.
There’s plenty of good news, but also some bad news; the market can’t just decide direction based on revenue alone right now.
The positive is that the iPhone is still strong, and Apple’s growth continues. The negative is that next quarter’s gross margin guidance is only 45% to 46%, below expectations, with rising storage chip prices and AI service costs squeezing profits.
(Selling more doesn’t mean earning more; this calculation still needs to be clear.)
AAPL also had a detail this time: EPS reached $2.10, of which $0.05 came from tariff refunds. Revenue growth is real, but whether profits can keep pace depends on future performance.
* Revenue: $114.5 billion, up 12% year-over-year
* iPhone revenue: $57.6 billion, up about 17%
* EPS: $2.10
* Next quarter gross margin guidance: 45% to 46%
Today in the prediction event, I chose AAPL to close higher; I remain bullish on Apple. There are indeed many short-term negatives, but as long as iPhone demand and revenue growth continue, I don’t want to turn bearish easily. We’ll see how it turns out, but at least for now, I’m still on the bulls’ side. $AAPL #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 $BTC has shown red candlesticks for 5 consecutive weeks!
If the price stays above 72k, the uptrend will continue from a longer time frame perspective!
This period is very similar to the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023.
Will history repeat itself?The midterms could create an interesting split between gold and Bitcoin.
Gold responds mainly to dollar weakness, real yields and fiscal uncertainty, while BTC has an additional variable: Washington's approach to crypto regulation.
A divided Congress could strengthen the case for both through political uncertainty and a friendlier regulatory outlook for crypto. But neither outcome guarantees a sustained rally.
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook $90 is not the end, more like an emotional checkup. SOL dropped to around 93, do you really think everyone is waiting for a rebound? Let's first bust a common misconception: many people see a 23.2% drop over 30 days and instinctively think "it's dropped enough, time to rebound." But the signals from the derivatives structure are not that gentle. In this round, from 122 sliding down to 90.87, the price moved down in steps, not a one-time plunge, indicating that leverage is being slowly squeezed out, not wiped clean by a single spike. Under this rhythm, the crowd's psychology is often more hesitant than panicked; FOMO hasn't truly appeared yet, but narrative fatigue is quite obvious. 🫧 Data snapshot: - Current price about 93.38, 30-day drawdown 23.20% - 90-day perspective still positive, +26.12%, mid-term holdings haven't fully turned bearish - From previous high 122.07 to low 90.87, drawdown close to one quarter - Upper moving average reference range 97 to 100, the first emotional barrier for a rebound - Around 90 is the most intuitive psychological support currently Momentum signals and risk signals should be viewed separately. The bullish side is: 90 days still positive, indicating this looks more like a deep pullback within a mid-term uptrend, not a complete trend reversal; once 90 holds, the path to repair towards 97 to 100 is smooth, and sentiment can easily shift from hesitation to tentative buying. The bearish side is: the stepped decline means every small rebound may be used to reduce positions, and if leverage on the derivatives side continues to...The market is falling, and buyers keep lining up to catch it. That contradiction is the story. Over the past 24 hours, $BTC slipped 1.04% to 76,938 inside a 76,700–78,867 range, with open interest at 2.57 billion and a buy-sell ratio of 2.52. Read that ratio carefully: nearly two and a half buyers for every seller while price grinds lower. That is not accumulation. That is a queue forming in front of a moving train. The liquidation ledger makes the point brutally. In the last four hours, total l"Market Like Foggy Weather: Don't Rush to Step on the Gas (´･_･`)"
The current market is like a foggy day, with blurred vision ahead. Stepping on the gas recklessly now can easily lead to disaster.
$BTC: Do not chase before the resistance zone at 78,800–81,000. Without volume breakout, all are just bull traps testing the waters. On the right side, wait for volume to confirm. The floor is at 76,000; if broken, look to 75,000. Currently, the rate is above zero, stuck in the middle, neither up nor down. Acting now risks getting slapped (｡•́︿•̀｡).
$ETH: Keep a close eye on 2,200. The 2,100–2,400 range is a weekly demand zone; holding it offers hope to reach 2,600–2,700. Although the current rate is negative (-0.0097%), with bears paying, going long cannot rely on rate alone. Two hard conditions must be met: volume-supported bottom at 2,200 + BTC holding above 78K, both indispensable (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
The macro main theme remains unchanged: the market's bet on December rate hikes is still high. Bank of America and Fidelity both forecast 25bp hikes in December and March next year. The big picture hasn't loosened; don't mistake a rebound for a trend reversal (´･ω･`).
On the sentiment side, the fear index is 38; BTC funding rate hasn't turned negative; ETF funds haven't returned; whales are buying but prices aren't following. When bullish and bearish clues clash, holding cash and waiting is safer than forcing a direction.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 The strangest thing is not how much money the hacker stole, but the way he spent it. The issuer's rapid asset freezing forced him to race against time, resulting in a type of buying on-chain that completely ignores price — this structure shaped by forced buying is more honest than any candlestick chart. $ETH thus passively became the bag holder. The hacker's average purchase price of Ethereum on-chain exceeded $2600, over $300 higher than the derivatives market, effectively giving the entire network a premium. So the reason ETH has held above 2300 in the past two days is not because bulls are strong, but because there is a buyer who simply doesn't care about the price. My judgment is straightforward: do not add positions before 2300 is firmly held; only consider it after it stabilizes. The support logic at this level is not sentiment but forced cash flow. $UNI is the direct source of slippage. The market, which already had limited depth, was forcibly slammed by a large buyer, creating a gap of several hundred dollars. Short-term funds will next reprice the depth of DEX — I won't act on volume-driven declines above $7, but breaking below the previous low warrants reevaluation. The key here is not the price itself, but that the market is beginning to realize liquidity depth is also an asset that can be instantly drained by events. $HYPE, on the other hand, proved another point in this turmoil: derivatives prices are the true anchor, and depth has withstood the test. Currently consolidating around 84, still in a floating loss range over 30 days, I maintain a base position and will add if it falls below 80. The narrative for this asset has quietly shifted — from "new public chain story" to "pricing benchmark under extreme market conditions." Truly worth$ETH has spent its latest candles holding near 2,300 after a steady climb from the 2,240 area. The rising hourly averages remain bullishly aligned, but the 2,308.90 wick shows supply overhead.
I’m watching the narrow 2,293 to 2,294 support area. Defending it would keep the consolidation constructive. A sustained push through 2,300 could challenge the high again, while losing support would expose the 10-hour MA near 2,282.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#PalantirQ3Growth96% Operation suggestions and trend analysis for Bitcoin and Ethereum: 11/4
Bitcoin's 4-hour Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a consolidation pattern before a breakout; the ratio of long to short positions in contracts is relatively high, and the weighted funding rate is close to 0.01. Historically, this combination tends to result in a higher probability of a pullback after a rebound faces resistance. Before breaking this range, the main strategy is to sell high and buy low. There is resistance around 78,700–79,700 where light short positions can be tried, with a stop loss if it rises above 80,000; if it pulls back and stabilizes around 77,500–76,000, consider buying low, and exit if it falls below 75,000. Contract trading carries extremely high risk and requires strict position control with stop losses. Analyst Sheng Ge's operation suggestions: short Bitcoin near 77,600–78,100, target 76,600–76,000; short Ethereum near 2,310–2,330, target 2,220–2,200
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 🚨 IS $72K THE NEXT STOP FOR BITCOIN?
I’ve been expecting BTC to drop toward $72K. When it rebounded above $79K, I saw a short opportunity despite the criticism.
Now the market is moving in that direction. 👀
The next big catalysts are US employment data, especially Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls.
📉 Weak data could put more pressure on BTC.
But nothing is guaranteed. Stay patient, manage risk, and wait for confirmation.
#BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #CryptoTrading #DailyOrbit
#DailyOrbit Strategy just bought another 811 BTC.
Odaily and ChainCatcher report: From October 26 to November 1, the company increased its BTC holdings by 811 coins at an average price of about $80,846, spending approximately $65.5 million. Total holdings rose to 849,327 BTC, with an average accumulated cost of about $75,451. During the same period, ATM sold shares to raise about $164 million and repurchased about $208.2 million of STRC. At the time of writing, BTC is around $77,276.
My judgment is that buying volume is shrinking but hasn't stopped—849,327 is just one step away from 850,000 coins, and the treasury is still using ATM to shuffle cash.
Do you think it will reach 850,000 coins next week first, or continue to shrink volume and wait? I'll write when the treasury adjusts positions, so follow me.
$BTC At the critical level, funds have not returned
Bitcoin holds above $78,000, Ethereum rebounds to $2,300; on the surface, it's price recovery, but inside, funds hesitate.
$BTC's resilience is somewhat beyond expectations: hacker incidents, large ETF outflows, and cooling rate hike expectations have exerted continuous pressure, yet the drop is still less than 3%, and the gap support remains intact. However, this rebound seems more like short covering driving it, with dense long positions accumulated around 78,556–78,836, and no obvious new buying inflows. Holding the critical level does not mean buying has returned.
$ETH is similarly delicate. Regaining 2,300, but spot ETFs have seen net outflows for more than twenty consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a single-day outflow of $138 million. The 2,350–2,370 range is the resistance zone where multiple previous rebounds were blocked; standing above 2,300 only temporarily stabilizes the position.
Next, the U.S. midterm election voting day and Friday's nonfarm payroll data are approaching, with BTC options implied volatility rising to 43.5%. Therefore, 78,000 and 2,300 are not just price coordinates but psychological stop-loss lines for both bulls and bears: whoever breaks first, loses their chips first. When the direction is unclear, chasing gains or cutting losses is a test of patience.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 🚨 $ETH Danger Signal! The options market has started buying insurance against a crash, with $1900 becoming the target for bears!
Brothers, today is the U.S. midterm election voting day, but more worth watching than the election itself is the pessimistic signal being sent by the ETH derivatives market.
📉 1. Options Market: Bearish Sentiment Clearly Heating Up
In the past 24 hours, all of the top six ETH option contracts by volume are put options!
The most watched is the put option expiring on November 6 with a strike price of $1900.
Currently, ETH is priced around $2286, so $1900 represents about a 17% drop from the current price.
What does this mean?
At least judging by recent popular option trades, some funds are actively buying downside protection, showing a clear increase in short-term risk concerns.
📊 2. Implied Volatility: ETH Makes the Market More Nervous Than BTC
Recently, ETH options implied volatility has risen to about 59%, while BTC is around 51%.
The premium on near-month ETH put options is also significantly higher than on longer-dated ones.
This reflects the market pricing in increased short-term downside risk.
However, note that active put option trading does not mean all traders are short; it may also include institutions hedging their spot long positions.
📉 3. Futures Open Interest Declining in Sync
ETH contract open interest has dropped about 2.18% over a recent period, while the price only fell about 0.83% during the same time.
The larger decline in open interest indicates some leveraged funds are exiting$BTC Evening Market Tracking:
btc is getting a bit strong
The US-Iran situation continues to develop
Progress on nuclear issues and frozen funds
After the news came out, crude oil dropped again
Everyone is watching the strong support at 75000–76000 to break
But the current news seems not to allow it
It seems most of Trump's loss in both chambers has been priced in early
We'll know the answer in the next couple of days
The only difficulty now is that the right-side signal hasn't appeared yet
7.6 is a buying opportunity, keep holding to play the game, shorting is not recommended anymore
Because in this situation, if Trump really loses both chambers, there might be a final dip before a V-shaped rebound, and if Trump wins one chamber, it could directly go upUS stocks drag down
📉 Nasdaq 100 enters correction territory, is BTC dragged down by tech stocks?
🌐 Ted Pillows: On Monday, Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory; KuCoin: On November 3, Nasdaq down about -1.07%, S&P 500 about -0.51%; CoinDesk mentioned chip stock sell-off intensifies volatility.
🗳️ US midterm elections voting on November 3, crypto.news mentioned election uncertainty suppresses risk appetite.
📉 BTC fell from about $78,000 to below $77,000, weakening in sync with US stocks.
💡 BTC’s correlation with tech stocks these days is more like "moving together," but correlation does not equal causation.
I'm not sure if US stocks will continue to drag down, might be wrong.
📍 What I’m watching:
• US stock market close tonight
• November 6 nonfarm payroll report
Do you think BTC is now following US stocks more, or more influenced by ETF funds?
$BTC $ETH #CanBTCHold80K #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook #AppleQ4MarginPressure $BTC $ETH $ZEC Bitcoin was below the 200-day moving average on the US midterm election days in 2014, 2018, and 2022, approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% lower respectively, but this year is different. Currently, Bitcoin's price is about $76,990, which is 5.2% above the 200-day moving average of around $73,169, indicating a relatively strong long-term trend. The 2026 Bitcoin bear market is shallower and the decline occurred earlier, with the main correction concentrated from January to February this year. Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, stated that historical data shows Bitcoin's performance in the first few months after midterm elections is usually volatile or slightly bearish, but it has risen over the following 12 months. He believes the long-term historical trend is favorable for Bitcoin, but short-term volatility still needs caution, especially with the risks from escalating geopolitical conflicts and the continued drag of AI trading on risk assets #TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard $BTC Every bull market, someone says this time is different.
2014, 2018, and 2022 were all U.S. midterm election years.
$BTC fell about 56%, 73%, and 64% respectively throughout those years.
And in all three years, the fourth quarter closed down.
Now 2026 is coming again.
I don't believe history will necessarily repeat itself,
but do you think 2026 could become the fourth exception? DEX Three Brothers Takeover Review: Who's Really Eating the Cake, Who's Just Holding the Scene? 🍰
The cake of funds fleeing from CEX has fallen, but catching it doesn't mean you can eat it—relying solely on speculative players to hold the scene will eventually lead to losing both principal and interest.
$HYPE is catching the most aggressively but is somewhat bloated
Both its share and TVL are soaring, which looks like a real benefit. But the problem is the buyback scheme—quite a portion is stuck in custody accounts, not actually burned, so the circulating supply remains as large as before. It was hyped too fiercely recently, and the price is now being suppressed and rubbed down. Don't get carried away chasing highs just because the share is rising; it's easy to end up holding the bag.
$ASTER is the most hardworking but also the most strained
The product iteration and volume-grabbing strategy is sound. HIP-3 cut fees to capture new markets, carving out territory under Hyperliquid's shadow. But the claim window is open until 11/28, with potential selling pressure looming and TVL sharply falling from its peak. The combination of token structure and the claim window is a double squeeze, making it hard to keep up with the inflow.
$UNI is the most stable, quietly working
Robinhood Chain's main AMM, fully rolled out v2/v3/v4 plus UniswapX. The batch of US stock users from Binance spillover who want to enter compliantly directly fall into Uniswap pools. It’s onboarding traditional entry users onto-chain, the least likely to be unlocked and dumped. If it doesn’t reclaim $7, I still consider it unpriced.
Summary: HYPE has volume but is hollow, ASTER has strength but is gasping, UNI has foundation but is slow. Catching speculative players is a skill; catching real users is the valuable diamond 💎🚨 What Elon Musk really needs to worry about might not be the $TSLA stock price, but the storm of investigations after the Democrats take control of Congress!
Brothers, tonight's U.S. midterm elections are the real show!
The signals from the prediction markets are already quite clear: the probability of the Democrats taking both the House and Senate is about 76.5%. Note, this is the implied probability from prediction markets and does not mean the final result is confirmed. U.S. voting results will be revealed gradually.
But what I’m more concerned about this time isn’t who wins or loses, but the potential risks to several of Musk’s companies.
Why?
Because once the Democrats take Congress, Musk may face not only political mudslinging but also more tangible commercial scrutiny.
📌 First checkpoint: DOGE Government Efficiency Department old issues
Previously, Musk was involved in work related to the Government Efficiency Department, and Democratic lawmakers might launch investigations around government layoffs, decision-making processes, and conflicts of interest.
📌 Second checkpoint: SpaceX government contracts
The biggest focus for $SPCX isn’t the short-term stock price, but government contracts, NASA projects, and defense and aerospace launch orders.
Hearings can generate news, but what truly affects valuation are contract execution, budget appropriations, and whether future orders change.
📌 Third checkpoint: Tesla subsidies and policy environment
$TSLA can’t completely stay out of this either. 🚨 $BTC historical pattern again? After the US midterm elections, Bitcoin seems to always experience an important turning point!👀
Brothers, I reviewed the Bitcoin trends after the past three US midterm elections and found a very interesting phenomenon:
Every time after the midterm elections, BTC undergoes a market correction, then starts a new upward cycle, and the time waiting for the bottom keeps getting shorter!
📊 Historical data review:
📍2014: Bottomed about 71 days after the midterms, price around $170, then rose all the way to near $20,000, an increase of over 100 times.
📍2018: Bottomed about 39 days later, price around $3,200, then peaked near $64,000, about 20 times.
📍2022: Bottomed about 13 days later, price around $15,500, then peaked near $126,000, about 8 times.
🔥 What’s the most noteworthy pattern?
The time to bottom was:
71 days → 39 days → 13 days.
Each cycle is shortening!
Of course, this doesn’t mean 2026 will definitely repeat history, but this cyclical coincidence is definitely worth our close attention.
💡 Personal thoughts from Brother 800:
US midterm elections often come with changes in policy expectations, market sentiment, and macro uncertainty.
In the short term, volatility around the election may amplify, and the market might even see panic selling.
But from a longer-term perspective, what really deserves attentionUncertain market, don't rush to act (・ω・)ノ
$BTC is now like standing on thin ice: 76,800 is too close to 76,000, chasing shorts now has poor odds (￣▽￣;). CME still holds 29,220 BTC short positions, about $2.2 billion; if a rebound occurs, short squeezes could be fierce. Until it stabilizes above 78,700–79,000, right-side signals don't count.
$ETH is stuck around 2,250, better to hold for now. Below, 2,219 is the lower Bollinger Band, 2,159 is the 200-day moving average; above, 2,361 is capped by the 20-day moving average. Whales bought $63 million at an average price of 2,286, but October ETF net outflows hit a record $1.65 billion—buying on one side, running on the other, retail investors shouldn't rush to take sides (｡•́︿•̀｡)
The macro anchor hasn't loosened: December rate hike probability is about 85%, Logan says at least two more 25bp hikes, and September core PCE at 3.6% is still accelerating. Before election results and Friday's employment data, holding cash isn't cowardice, it's preserving position.
Funding rate has reached -0.0097%, shorts are paying, yet ETFs are still bleeding. Conflicting signals plus election day, the best move today: let the market take a couple of steps on its own (￣▽￣)ノ
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 😵💫 $SNDK Is SanDisk about to give the bulls a heart attack?
The earnings report is clearly strong, yet the stock price is not rising but falling, even continuously being sold off!
Is this a shakeout to lure more buyers, or has the market already started trading on bad news in advance?
Honestly, the biggest concern this time is not SanDisk's current performance, but that the market's expectations for its future growth are changing.
📊 Why does the stock price plummet despite such good results?
Because the capital market never just trades on how much was earned in the past, but on how much can be earned in the future!
Although SanDisk delivered a beautiful report this time, the operating profit guidance for the next quarter did not meet market expectations.
The market originally expected 2.35 trillion yen, but the actual guidance is only about 2 trillion yen.
What does this mean?
It’s not that the company suddenly stopped making money, but that the market expected it to continue ultra-high-speed growth, and the future growth expectations did not satisfy investors’ appetite.
More attention should be paid to NAND flash prices:
Last quarter, prices rose nearly 70%, but in the latest quarter, they have fallen back to just over 20%.
Although prices are still rising, the growth rate has clearly slowed, and the market is beginning to worry whether this super boom cycle for memory chips will gradually cool down.
🔥 My three personal judgments:
1️⃣ Good earnings do not equal good stock price; expectation gaps are the biggest short-term killer of stock prices.
2️⃣ If NAND price growth continues to narrow, even if company profits still grow, valuation can alsoEther yesterday surged to 2317, originally expecting to test 2350 resistance, pity rebound momentum insufficient, directly pulled back, current price back to 2243, trend much weaker than expected. Look at 4h chart, highs continuously moving down, failed to form strong bullish structure, short term bears dominate. Frankly, now buying power still not enough, can't eat up trapped chips above. Market sync view, BTC already broke below 77000, long liquidations over $100M. ETH side, Binance perps buyiHistory offers an interesting lesson from the FTX collapse in November 2022. After FTX suspended withdrawals on November 8, the crypto market continued falling before reaching a major cycle bottom later that month. What followed? 📈 Bitcoin gained approximately 40% over the following six months. 📈 The total crypto market capitalization also recovered significantly. Could the current market follow a similar pattern? Nobody knows where the exact bottom is. But major market disruptions can sometimThe US midterm elections are about to begin, and the market's attention to $BTC's impact is increasing.
Currently, the Democrats have a higher probability of taking the House of Representatives, while the Senate results remain uncertain. If the Democrats expand their influence, the advancement of crypto regulation and the CLARITY Act may face more resistance.
However, the election will not immediately change Trump's existing policies; in the short term, it will mostly affect market sentiment, while in the long term, it depends on regulatory policies and capital flows.
Back to the market, $BTC has fallen back to around 77,000, with a weak 4-hour trend. The key support to watch is 76,500. Once broken, market selling pressure may further increase.
Next, the focus is on the gap between the actual election results and market expectations; the expectation gap is the key to the market trend. Historical data shows that Bitcoin experienced significant corrections around previous US midterm elections: • 2014: -48% • 2018: -50% • 2022: -16% With the 2026 midterms approaching, political uncertainty could bring additional volatility to crypto markets. The election outcome may influence fiscal policy, regulatory direction, institutional sentiment, and overall risk appetite. A potential shift in control of Congress could create uncertainty, especially around crypto regulation. My view: HistBlackRock IBIT alone withdrew about $405.3m, Fidelity FBTC instead small inflow about $6.7m, rest most products almost no movement Friday plus Monday two days combined spit about $1.04B, spit back last week's that little inflow again Price action also not giving face $BTC current price around 77010, 24h high 78254, low 76386, funding rate about 0.01% Daytime multiple retests 76400 to 76500 zone, rebound to near 77500 then pressed back again IBIT single day withdrawal over 400m, institutional sid#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
1. Four main monitoring themes
1. COVID-19 vaccine mNEXSPIKE (currently the only cash cow)
- Highlights: US autumn vaccination progress, retail share, shipments; Q3 is the pre-season stocking window for respiratory diseases.
- Risks: Continued decline in public vaccination willingness, procurement orders below expectations.
2. New respiratory pipeline (determines long-term valuation)
- Approval pace of mRNA‑1010 (flu alone), mRNA‑1083 (flu + COVID combo vaccine);
- Commercialization progress of RSV vaccine; if these succeed, revenue dependence on COVID will be reduced.
3. Oncology pipeline (largest source of upside)
- mRNA‑4157 (melanoma cancer vaccine), the market bets this is the big future story; if the call provides positive clinical updates, it can easily boost valuation; if data is weak, expectations will be cut sharply.
4. Cost control + cash reserves
- Company goal: reduce operating expenses, move towards cash breakeven;
- Key focus: whether R&D and sales expenses continue to be cut; ending cash; cash is the company’s most important safety cushion.
2. Three scenario scripts
✅ Better than expected (bullish)
- Revenue ≥ 940 million, loss narrows to better than -1.00;
- mNEXSPIKE share strengthens; clear approval timeline given for flu/combo vaccine; #توقعات AMD Earnings Report: Progress in Marketing the HeliosAI System I expect AMD earnings reports to exceed expectations $AMD
Before the earnings report is released on Tuesday, the market sentiment remains cautious yet optimistic, due to strong demand for data center processors and accelerated deployment of AI accelerators. $xAMD Whether the momentum continues after the earnings report will largely depend on whether the AI revenue guidance for Q4 exceeds Wall Street expectations.
Strong performance recorded😎 over the past eight quarters, AMD has exceeded Wall Street consensus expectations in 5 quarters After the US midterm elections, I checked some historical data, and it's actually quite interesting.
In the past 19 midterm elections, the S&P 500:
On average rose 7.2% in 3 months, rising 17 times.
On average rose 14.6% in 6 months, rising all 19 times.
On average rose 18.2% in 12 months, rising all 19 times.
In other words, according to this historical data set, over the past 72 years, the S&P 500 has never fallen in the year following a midterm election.
Of course, whether this record will continue this year, no one can say for sure.
With the US stock market dropping like this now, I really hope this historical pattern holds true once again.
$SPY $QQQ $BTC $IRYS IRYS's chart is classic.
It has steadily declined from 0.5 to 0.02, and during the interim rallies, spot funds have been net outflowing daily. The main force is purely using the pump to cover up selling.
Not to mention 80% of the tokens are still locked at the bottom, and the FDV is directly set at five times the market cap.
Don't expect any rebound; after the altcoin peaks, the drop really has no bottom.
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇#CircleQ3USDCGrowth
Circle (CRCL) faces a brutal margin squeeze. While USDC adoption looks robust, aggressive revenue-sharing costs with Coinbase and collapsing macro interest rates are cannibalizing core profitability. If Q3 numbers rely on artificial token accounting rather than organic transactional volume, this growth engine is unsustainable.
$CRCL #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
🚨 Circle earnings report tonight! USDC keeps growing bigger, but CRCL stock price faces a real test!
📅 Q3 2026 earnings: November 4, before US market opens
🪙 USDC circulation: about $74.58 billion in Q3
📈 Q2 USDC circulation: $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year
💰 Q2 total revenue and reserve income: $701 million, up 7% year-over-year
It looks like the stablecoin business is continuously expanding! But the real market concern is:
⚠️ USDC growth does not equal Circle’s profit growth!
Circle’s core business model is to earn interest income from USDC reserve assets.
This means three key variables:
1️⃣ USDC circulation: the larger the scale, the higher the potential reserve income
2️⃣ Federal Reserve interest rates: if rates fall, reserve yields may be pressured
3️⃣ Distribution costs: revenue sharing with trading platforms and partners may erode profits
Market expects adjusted Q3 EPS around $0.37–$0.40, revenue about $788 million–$797 million.
🔥 Tonight’s earnings focus is not whether USDC has grown, but:
* Whether the scale advantage of stablecoins can actually translate into profit growth?
* If USDC keeps expanding but interest rates keep falling, can CRCL maintain its high valuation? The probability of gold rising 📈 and strengthening is getting higher and higher! $ETH ETH current price is about 2,300, repeatedly oscillating near the bottom of the range. The lowest on October 30 was 2,179, rebounded 5% and returned to the 2,300 level — this is not a bottoming out, just a pause in the downtrend.
There are three resistance levels above: 200-day moving average at 2,313, 100-day moving average at 2,353, and the broken trendline at 2,385. Moving averages are in a bearish alignment, RSI at 45, rebounds tend to be sold off once they hit the moving averages. Capital has not yet flowed back.
In October, spot ETH ETF net outflow was $1.45 billion, a monthly record, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for 90%; total net assets dropped from 17.46 billion to 14.27 billion over five weeks. This wave is following the Nasdaq, not its own money returning.
Overlooked risk point: Binance lost $6.3 billion to theft, hackers used EIP-7702 to convert stolen funds into ETH, which when liquidated represents potential selling pressure.
Three major events upcoming: 11/6 Nonfarm Payrolls, 11/10 CPI, 12/9 FOMC (78% chance of rate hike). The 2,276–2,300 range is the last line of defense; if broken, look at 2,200, then 2,122 liquidation zone. Only above 2,313 can it catch a breather, above 2,355 can it be considered a recovery.
Now is not a buying point: downside space 6%, upside 2%. Wait for data to land, wait for ETF to turn positive The market action tonight really wore me out watching it; the volatility isn't that big, just repeated surges and pullbacks. I wonder if it will stir up trouble again while I'm asleep tonight.
According to the 24-hour market liquidation data: total market liquidations reached $360 million, with long liquidations at $290 million and short liquidations at $78.811 million. A total of 91,000 people were liquidated across the network.
Bitcoin:
24-hour liquidations at $96.87 million, with long liquidations at $76.5 million and short liquidations at $20.369 million.
4-hour liquidations at $11.191 million, with long liquidations at $2.085 million and short liquidations at $9.106 million.
Ethereum:
24-hour liquidations at $54.787 million, with long liquidations at $32.206 million and short liquidations at $22.582 million.
4-hour liquidations at $16.06 million, with long liquidations at $3.928 million and short liquidations at $12.132 million.
The 24-hour long liquidation data for Bitcoin is quite large, mainly occurring during the daytime drop. Now with this rebound, I feel it's hard to say anything; it can't even break through the 78,000 level? Not sure if it can go up after waking up tomorrow. As for Ethereum, the 2,300 level is still a big resistance. Now it depends on whether the rebound can break through this level; otherwise, be cautious of surges followed by pullbacks. #Прогноз финансовой отчетности AMD: прогресс коммерциализации системы HeliosAI
What conclusion should be drawn from this? Long position logic at 74,700: You focused on the moving average correctly, but may have targeted the wrong opponent
The 120-day moving average is indeed around 74,300–74,426, and the 200-day moving average is at 73,195. The price remains well above these two long-term moving averages, and the broader uptrend formed earlier this year has not been broken. Treating 74,700 as a range rather than an exact point makes sense logically—there really isn’t a more convincing support reference below.
But there are two variables more worth clarifying than the "moving average itself."
First, elections don’t change the price direction; they change the rhythm of capital inflows and outflows. HTX Research’s judgment is straightforward: elections can change policy expectations but cannot directly reduce holding costs, nor will they automatically convert wait-and-see funds into BTC buying pressure. In the past three elections, BTC fell first then rose, but the sample size is only three, and the timing of each low ranged from 13 to 71 days. Overlaying "120-day moving average support" with "post-election must fall" does not yield a high-probability signal but rather a high-volatility window.
Second, you think shorting is a retail trap, and this intuition is supported by data, but the direction might be reversed. CME has about $2.2 billion in Bitcoin short positions. Once the price rebounds, a short squeeze will force shorts to cover, which in turn boosts the rally. Recently, the BTC short liquidations within 12 hours were five times that of longs in the same period. The danger of retail shorting is precisely because the shorts are already crowded, and crowded trades themselves are fuel.Is the rebound after ETH's sharp drop a reversal signal or a second chance for the bears?
ETH experienced a clear correction, falling from $2503 to $2267. It weakened again near $2318, hitting a low of $2236.06 before a technical rebound occurred. Currently, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 stand at 2265.85, 2261.11, and 2255.59 respectively, with short-term moving averages beginning to recover, but this is not enough to confirm the end of the downtrend.
Key resistance to watch above is in the $2280–$2303 range, while support to note below is at $2240 and the previous low of $2236. If the rebound fails to break through resistance effectively, a further decline should still be guarded against; if volume increases and it holds above $2303, the bearish logic needs to be reassessed.
True progress in trading is not about daring to add positions on floating profits, but knowing when to add, when to reduce, and when to admit mistakes. Only after experiencing liquidation does one understand that profits come from judgment and are protected by discipline. Before the trend is confirmed, do not increase positions due to floating profits, nor let one correct judgment become a reason to hold onto the next losing position. $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $CORE CORE really made me laugh with this market.
34,000 transactions in one day, but the total DEX volume on the entire chain is only $148, and the node tax is $1.17.
Tens of thousands of transactions are all just scripts stubbornly maintaining the illusion.
There isn't even a real buy order of tens of dollars on the market; the depth is completely dry.
This isn't a public chain; it's clearly a giant robot party.
Who dares to place a buy order here? You'll be trapped dead in the wilderness.
#CORE
$CORE
👇🚀 HYPE/USDT Daily Chart Update
* Current Price: $HYPE 86.401 ($86.4010 USDT)
* 24h Range: $82.612 – $87.940
* Trend: Consolidating above key moving averages following a sharp rally.
🎯 Short Prediction & Levels:
* Support: $HYPE 82.50
* Resistance: $90.00 / $97.00
Outlook: Price is holding steady above the MA10 ($84.20) and MA20 ($81.64) support zone. If buyers maintain control above $84.00, a push toward $90.00+ is likely. Keep an eye on breakout volume! ⚡️🔥 The US midterm elections end today
Suddenly realized, history proves a bullish 12-month performance for Bitcoin
2014: +24.5%
2018: +44.9%
2022: +92.3%
2026: An even bigger surge is coming.$xINTC rebounded from an old low of $59.62 before rallying from its pullback after a peak of $xINTC 104.47, and trades at $61.06 after a +0.82% daily gain.
Short-Term: Watch support near $xINTC 59.62 (24h low visible on chart). Holding this level can spark a retest toward the upper range.
All-Time Prediction: In a full bull run, $xINTC could target $xINTC 100.00+. If support fails, it may pull back to $59.62.