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#CPI and PPI Announcements Imminent, Interest Rate Hike Expectations Face Test
With the CPI announcement imminent, my judgment is: overall CPI is relatively hot, core CPI is moderate
On the 14th, the US will release September CPI and core CPI, and on the 15th, PPI and retail sales will be released simultaneously.
This is the most important inflation window before the October FOMC, focusing on whether the core inflation is spreading rather than the overall number driven by energy.
My basis for judgment:
Consensus among multiple institutions: overall CPI month-on-month about +0.6%, mainly due to a sharp rise in gasoline prices;
Core CPI month-on-month about +0.2%, with moderate inflation in services and rent.
A moderate core is conducive to maintaining the pricing of "pause in October, reassess in December."
If expectations are met, the probability of a rate hike in October remains low, with limited volatility in yields and the dollar.
If core is relatively hot, yields rise and risk assets come under pressure; if softer, risk appetite temporarily recovers.
Impact on assets:
$BTC: Moderate core may lead to a short-term rebound, looking above 83200; if relatively hot, retest support at 80000.
Gold $XAU: Moderate is favorable for easing real interest rate pressure, watch above 4200; if relatively hot, pull back near 4150.
Recommendation: De-leverage and control positions before the data.
If expectations are met, BTC can be tried long near 83k, gold near 4190 with small positions, stop loss set at 80k and 4150;
If hotter than expected, wait and watch or hedge with light positions. Focus on core CPI and immediate reaction of US Treasury yields.Brothers, should I run away from this long position I'm stuck in?
I'm a bit panicked right now!
Since $ZEC went up, it has been consolidating around 1230.
It feels like a setup for a breakout.
Honestly, I watched the market closely last night for a long time, and the price just stuck at 1230, with no strength up or down.
The 24-hour high was only 1244, the low 1214, with a fluctuation of less than 30 points.
This kind of low-volume consolidation is well known to veterans: it's either the calm before a big drop or the buildup before a big rise.
I'm panicked because I'm afraid it will choose to go down.
But looking calmly, a few things make me feel more assured.
First, although the price is sideways, it has never broken below the 1214 support; the 1-hour MA20 is at 1227, and the price is above the moving average.
Second, there's new news today: the decentralized exchange THORChain has launched native Zcash swaps. This is a solid ecological advancement, broadening ZEC's circulation scenarios.
So, run or not?
I decided not to run.
The premise for a long consolidation to break down is being at a high level. This position has already halved from 1695, so the downside space is limited.
I'll wait for the breakout; as soon as a bullish candle breaks through 1244, that's a signal to go up.
At that time, I won't just hold—I will add to my position.
$BTC
$MAGIC
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test 【Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜BTC October 11】
Tonight is not about mindlessly chasing the rally; the key is whether 83000 can turn from resistance into support. Within the search limit, only 2 fresh BTC traders' views were verified; this article discloses a condensed version.
1) Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) original view: BTC needs to firmly hold above 83000 again and see spot buying return; the previous rebound was mostly due to short covering/profit-taking and a drop in open interest.
Editor’s inference: Spot around 83040, only one route to watch: a pullback to 83000 without breaking it, then target 83234, followed by 84000.
2) Daan (@DaanCrypto) original view: Weekly close above 83000 is more favorable for short-term bulls; the daily 200MA/EMA may still be retested later.
3) Cheds (@BigCheds) original view: BTC 4-hour moving averages are flattening, weekly OBV is waiting for filter confirmation.
Editor’s inference: This looks more like waiting for confirmation, not chasing after a breakout casually. If the price is pulled up but spot volume does not follow, I consider the rebound insufficiently confirmed, not a confirmed breakout; wait for one more confirmation. Invalidation: falling below 82700 and failing to close back above 83000. Leverage users should watch out for spikes, funding rates, and liquidation risks.
#BTC #ETH #OKBMAGIC Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
This round of MAGIC is not purely driven by sentiment: Treasure DAO launched MagicSwap v2, secured a large ARB airdrop, and combined with BingX recently listing MAGIC spot trading, bringing incremental funds. This is a main event-driven market.
Single-day increase of 80%, 24h trading volume of $234 million, circulating market cap only $40 million. High turnover mostly comes from contract leverage; spot buying is not as strong as the data suggests.
Continue holding positions, wait for 4H-level volume contraction and weakening upward momentum to take profits in batches, and use trailing stops to protect floating gains. Small-cap coins with positive news are very prone to rapid sell-offs once the news is realized. Exit immediately if a large-volume long bearish candle breaks support.
‼️ Pay attention to risks and shorting opportunities!
1. High turnover small-cap coins have very fast main force selling; after positive news is realized, it often results in "sell the news" behavior.
2. Trading volume is mainly from contract leverage; once the long liquidation wave ends, liquidity will quickly dry up and the decline will be very rapid;
3. Positive news from new exchange listings is short-term incremental, not a long-term fundamental reversal. The market is event-driven short-term, not a trend for the long term.【链上交易动态｜ETH】
监控到地址 0x24fb 开多：
▪ 成交价格：2,499.04 美元
▪ 本次成交金额：1,249,518.33 美元
▪ 杠杆：15 倍
备注：该地址近30天盈利超24.3w美金，收益率 +11.62%$ETH Sector Comparison｜Public Chains: Same Track, Different Performance
ETH in the past 24 hours +0.17%, ADA in the same period -3.77%.
Between these two coins, ETH is currently stronger. I will first see if it can maintain its advantage, rather than betting on ADA to catch up just because they are on the "same track."$XRP To be honest, I myself find it surprising that this trade has lasted until now; luck played a big part.
Last night in the early morning, I was watching XRP; it couldn't break upward, volume didn't keep up, and support was insufficient. I judged it to be a strong bull trap and signaled a high short.
Opened a short at 1.4110, ground down to 1.3895, floating profit +153.08%, this gain feels good.
Closed 80% first, kept 20% to protect and move the cost basis, letting the profit run on further decline, and not giving back profits on any rebound.
The market is waited for, profits are held onto. Don't get greedy with gains, don't despair on pullbacks. If you haven't entered short, don't chase it; wait for the next rebound to face resistance, I will alert immediately.
$ETH $DOGE $BTC reaching 100,000 is not about whether it will happen, but whether the money will arrive
I am a trader and also a blogger. My answer: 100,000 is not a "will it happen" question, but a "conditional" one.
Current price is 83,000, about 20% away from 100,000. Historical statistics: after three consecutive weeks of gains, there is a 71% probability of continuing to rise over the next 13 weeks, with an average increase of 26%, corresponding to 108,000. But the prediction market only gives 11%-21%. One looks at the rearview mirror, the other looks at real money.
The biggest resistance now is not the candlestick chart, but the ETF. Continuous net outflows in October, while September still had a net inflow of 2.65 billion. Without money coming in, 100,000 is a wall.
Three switches: ETF turning to net inflow, holding above 87K, and macro liquidity improvement. Missing any one means it's a rebound, not a reversal. Breaking through 85K may trigger a 3.3 billion short squeeze, which is the fastest fuel; breaking below 80K shifts the focus down to 75.8K.
My plan: not to bet on 100,000, wait for confirmation. Reduce positions when it reaches, buy cheap chips if it doesn't.
A question to leave: Is BTC reaching 100,000 this year a "liquidity bull" or a "liquidity trap"? Which side are you on?
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure?
#Check in with OKX at 2049
$ETH $ZEC I think don't overfill ETH long positions on Bitfinex; about 283,400 coins is the highest in over four years, and a drop could trigger a chain reaction. OKX spot price is about $2499 (Beijing 18:45).标普500那个ETF，周五只成交了2260万股，是2004年以来最惨淡的一天，跟没人逛街一样🛒。
啥意思呢？你这么记就行：
第一，成交量爆大 = 有人在打架，底或顶常这时候出现。
第二，成交量特小 = 没人吵、没人跑、也没人疯买，大家“都行都行随便吧”。
这种时候，原来的趋势一般还会接着走，不会马上翻脸。
所以现在这情况就是：
没啥突发坏消息的话，标普大概率接着往上磨一截📈。
但！后面要是突然“哐当”一下放量了，就得小心——那可能是要变天，不是见底就是见顶。
再说现实风险：
美国中期选举、美伊冲突这些事都没完全落地，不确定性挺大。
所以别上头，别加杠杆，别把“缩量上涨”当成“稳了”。
总结成一句：
现在像暴风雨前的安静，不是没风险，是大家暂时都不动🫠。
看着涨可以，梭哈不行。
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 Hot Coin Data Ranking｜Last 15 Minutes
$CFX dropped sharply with increased volume, positions decreased. Trading volume was 2.582 million USDT, 2.6 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous 1 hour; price -2.78%, position volume -1.43%.
$TIA dropped sharply with increased volume, positions decreased, and buying and selling were close at the end. Trading volume was 1.696 million USDT, 2.3 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous 1 hour; position volume -1.30%. At the end, active buying was 47.6%, and the price during this period was +0.02%.If the 10-year US Treasury yield really approaches 6%, BTC will face a more severe liquidity test.
High yields will increase the return requirements for holding US dollar assets and compress the valuation space for risk assets.
BTC may come under pressure, while ETH and other highly volatile major coins may face greater drawdown risks.
But 6% is just a risk scenario, not a certain outcome.
What needs to be observed is whether yields continue to rise, whether BTC breaks support, and whether ETF funds continue to flow out.
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $BTC $ETH $MAGIC SUI structure update: The one-sided trend has ended, entering a high-level range trading zone.
Range top: around 1.29
Current price: 1.0951
Short-term support: EMA20 = 1.0820
Resistance above: 1.1257 (Bollinger middle band) → 1.20 (trapped zone)
On the indicator side, KD is dipping, J value at 29.7, momentum shows no clear turning point.
On volume, after the rise, volume shrinks, indicating insufficient chasing funds, mostly turnover within existing holdings.
Conclusion:
Short-term strategy should switch from "chasing gains" to "range response"—
Only by reclaiming 1.1257 with volume can there be a chance to restart the upward attack;
If it breaks below 1.0820, be cautious of seeking support at 0.9686. Touched $83,230 in the afternoon then fell back, $BTC stuck at $83,000.
Current market shows BTC at $83,000, up 0.20% in 24 hours.
At 3 PM, the 1-hour candle once surged to $83,230, piercing the early morning high of $83,169, but closed back at $83,014.
In the following hours, the price hovered near $83,000, with only about 9.7 contracts traded from 6 PM to now.
During the surge hour, contract OI dropped from about 3.02 million to about 3.00 million, and the funding rate remained slightly negative.
Leverage did not increase with the price rise; it looks more like someone was reducing positions at the upper edge rather than preparing to break out.
The funding side also did not improve.
On October 9, ETF net inflow was $21.1 million, IBIT bought about $22.4 million, but from the 5th to the 9th, the total net outflow was about $679 million.
Single-day inflow is just a drop compared to the whole week's redemption; sustained buying has not yet formed.
The afternoon pierced the previous high but couldn't hold, and follow-up buying still hasn't come in.
Short term, watch the $82,800-$83,230 consolidation range to see which breaks first.
Only with volume passing $83,230 again can we talk about testing $83,530.【On-Chain Trading Update｜ETH】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 2,498.71 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 624,676.31 USD
▪ Leverage: 15x
Do you think opening a long at this position is early or not?
Note: This address has earned over 243,000 USD in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +11.62% #StarlinkSpectrumDeal
When I brush away the carbonized Roman tiles in the strata with a soft brush, the musty smell in the air is exactly the same as the scent of the traditional telecom giants plummeting after hours tonight.
SpaceX’s hammer blow of acquiring 800 MHz spectrum across the US shatters not only the stock prices of a few oligopolies but directly opens the tomb of the monopoly communication relics. AT&T fell nearly 7%, T-Mobile dropped 5.4%, these giants that have occupied the ground for decades, their skeletons are creaking.
There is nothing new under the sun. The collapse of the “Bell Momma” monopoly empire last century is clearly recorded in the mud-gold manuscripts; today’s traditional operators who rely on ground base stations to collect rent are no different from the old aristocrats who clung to copper cables back then. They thought the moat built by administrative franchises was impregnable, but they forgot that in the stratigraphic layers of history, dimensionality reduction attacks often come from the sky.
When the physical boundary is forcibly raised to near-Earth orbit, the old era’s ground infrastructure becomes a sunk cost equivalent to a horse carriage relay station. This is not just a spectrum transfer, but an irreversible evolution of communication power migrating from a “centralized city-state” to a “distributed orbital network.”
I have seen too many Pompeii cities in ancient books that thought they were too big to fail. The era gap where traditional giants lie back and siphon off profits through monopoly base stations completely cracks the moment this spectrum acquisition agreement is signed. Even in the crypto industry, which loudly proclaims decentralization, those pseudo-Web3 projects that attempt to hijack consensus with a single server node will ultimately be thoroughly liquidated in the pain of physical boundary expansion.
But I still feel a bit confused. Can the priests of the new order really walk away unscathed? Can the high costs of near-Earth launches and maintenance losses be truly offset by the scattered subscription fees on the ground when the network is directly built in space? Is this a productivity revolution or a gamble that exhausts the national treasury to build a Great Wall?
History is a cold scalpel, and human greed and arrogance are always shattered repeatedly before the same monument. The old guards holding onto the old iron towers on the ground have already had their tombstones inscribed in orbit.🏛️📜$BTC Everyone must be wary of a market trap; don't be fooled by the 24-hour net inflow data!
BTC, ETH, SOL, ZEC, short-term contract funds are actually collectively fleeing.
The big picture is short-term bearish; don't chase longs impulsively on a rebound.
Looking at the data, it's clear many coins show capital inflow over 24 hours, but in short cycles, funds are all flowing out.
Bitcoin has a 5-minute net outflow of 8.07 million, 4-hour outflow of 172 million, 8-hour outflow of 158 million. Although 24 hours show a net inflow of 55.51 million, the weekly net outflow is 3.313 billion, indicating heavy selling pressure above.
Ethereum is similar, with a 4-hour outflow of 99.32 million, 8-hour outflow of 127 million. The slight 24-hour inflow is just a short-term illusion; mid-term capital conditions have not warmed at all.
SOL's short-term funds are also weak, with a 4-hour outflow of 8.92 million, 8-hour outflow of 13.68 million, and 24-hour inflow of 20.12 million. No clear shorting force has formed yet; continuing to observe is advised.
ZEC is even weaker, with an 8-hour net outflow of 22.77 million, almost no inflow over 24 hours, and a weekly net outflow of 299 million, showing continuous capital withdrawal. $ETH $STRK #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia relaxes diesel exports, but Hormuz risks still support oil prices The cross-chain leader doubled in a month, but there are only nine days left until the next unlock.
Over the weekend, the L2 and cross-chain sectors warmed up, with the interoperability leader LayerZero's ZRO rising about 3%, currently around 2.056. But looking closer, it surged to 2.11 intraday before being pushed back down; in the past hour it has turned green again, and the current price has even fallen below the 5-day moving average of 2.076, showing signs of volume expansion but stagnation at the high level.
Fundamentally, it does have substance: cross-chain messages and transfer volume consistently account for about 80% of the entire network; Stargate's integration with ZRO has been implemented; protocol revenue has been fully used to buy back ZRO since April; on October 8, it launched the cross-chain message verification network Bridge Sentinel with security company Blockaid; stablecoin interoperability also has ongoing partnerships with Anchorage, USDG, and others.
But most of these are ongoing old narratives, with no sudden positive news today. The story is more about sector linkage combined with exponential buybacks. What really needs attention is: it has doubled from the September low of 1.07, and on October 20 there will be another monthly unlock releasing early tokens. There is also a lawsuit hanging over it, and the OKEx spot 24h trading volume is only about 1.44 million USDT, with a thin order book.
Watch the 2.02 support and whether the Bollinger middle band holds, and before the unlock, whether volume breaks above the previous high of 2.11 or if it uses the story to sell off. A big rise does not equal a thick safety cushion. DYOR, not investment advice.
#ZRO #LayerZero #crosschain #Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure?
$ADA was the only one to stand above the 20-day moving average yesterday, but it also fell below it today.
▪️ Current price 0.2471, down 1.55% in 24 hours, the largest drop among the ten coins
▪️ 20-day moving average 0.2501, current price fell 1.20% below it — yesterday it was 1.2% above
▪️ RSI14 is 52.8, still the highest among the ten coins, down from 55.7
▪️ 7-day drop 5.72%, 30-day rise 20.71%, 90-day rise 57.99%
▪️ 50-day moving average 0.2270, 200-day moving average 0.2128, both below
▪️ Recent 20-day low 0.2238, 10.4% away from current price
The divergence is not about how much it fell today, but that it was the only one among the ten coins to stand above the 20-day moving average and today it also fell back below.
Yesterday it met three conditions simultaneously: stood above the 20-day moving average, RSI over 50, and 24-hour increase. Today only RSI remains, and RSI is lagging. The strength supported by internal sector rotation exits as quickly as it entered.
The direction is to wait and see — only a return above 0.2501 counts as an independent trend; losing 0.2238 targets 0.21. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
Ethereum stands above 2500, the real trigger point is the CPI on the 14th
Brothers, ETH is now hovering around 2500, this position is very awkward. The 2700 to 2800 range above is a dense lock-in zone from last month's decline; to truly break through, sustained buying support is needed.
What expectations is the market trading on now? Overall CPI will likely be hit around 3.7% due to soaring oil prices, but core CPI is slightly cooling down. 🔥 $PONS vs $VIRTUAL : Both have a problem with longs.
$PONS: Shorts dominate with $11.33M and +$4.79M profit. Meanwhile, longs are down $2.27M.
$VIRTUAL: Longs hold $5.75M, but they're sitting on -$508K.
👀 Here's the twist: fresh buying is stronger than selling on both coins.
My take: $PONS has more short-squeeze potential, while $VIRTUAL longs remain vulnerable.
My pick: $PONS. If buyers keep pushing, profitable shorts could start covering.$LINK
LINK's gains are expanding, but has product demand truly entered a price feedback loop?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 12.772—13.252 USDT, change +1.45%, trading volume approximately 4.93 million USDT.
The quote remains in the mid-range of the trading band, indicating that the high-level support has not been fully maintained. Call volume, service fees, and token demand each have their own constraints; product necessity does not always equate to perpetual valuation support. The current market only reflects the trading outcome.
If multiple rebounds near 13.252 fail, maintain a local repair explanation for now; if genuine paid demand can be verified and the high point is reclaimed and stabilized, then raise the judgment on value realization.2990 $ETH, 7.45 million USD, were just dumped into Tornado Cash.
To put it plainly: the money is being laundered, and quite skillfully.
First crossing to ZEC, then privatizing, and finally passing through the mixer, the on-chain trail basically breaks.
What I’m watching is another detail — some withdrawal addresses are linked to the original gas-paying addresses.
In other words, the method wasn’t perfect; some clues were left behind.
But clues are clues, the money still moved as it should.
Since the Ledger supply chain incident, the money has been moving nonstop.
Impact on the market? Not much, 2990 $ETH isn’t a huge amount.
What’s really frustrating is another layer: hardware wallets are sold on the promise of "security," yet the problem came from the device itself.
So tell me, next time someone tells you "cold wallets are the safest," how much would you believe them?
#Ledger confirms one involved device was hardware implanted
#How to upgrade blockchain security under AI and quantum threats? $ETH $ZEC After the sharp drop of $ZEC, the most dangerous thing is not bottom fishing, but rushing to prove that you were right.
$ZEC fell more than 10% in a single day on October 8, then rebounded.
At this time, two voices are most likely to appear in the market:
One believes the drop is over and it's time to bottom fish.
The other believes the rebound is just a bull trap and the decline will continue.
But I am more concerned about one question:$TIA 这单50倍空，0.6025开的，目前浮盈177%。前面多单吃满，现在反手摸顶，说下逻辑。$MAGIC
4小时看得很清楚，从0.42磨到0.6329是一根巨量长阳直插，量能爆到9.56U后开始缩。高位收长上影，当前0.5813跌回MA5（0.5897）下方，短均开始走平。日内涨13%但冲高回落，说明0.63上方抛压极重，获利盘在集中兑现。$STRK
开在0.6025是右侧确认承压，赌的是急涨后的技术修正。下方MA10在0.5387，长均0.5133托底。50倍空单不恋战，反弹破0.60减仓防插针，目标看0.55-0.53支撑区。
板块轮动快，追高容易吃面，高位滞涨就是空头窗口。利润垫厚了让子弹飞，但绝不扛单。#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Filecoin is about to complete the 6-year token unlock schedule, reducing FIL supply by 77%
• Filecoin will complete the 6-year unlock schedule for the initial token batch on 10/14/2026.
• The newly issued annual FIL supply is expected to decrease by 77%, from 88.9 million to 20.6 million FIL.
• Block rewards from mining will become the only main source of new FIL supply.
$FIL #CPIPPIHikeWatch UNI barely holds above 7.48.
But it's still weak. So weak that I don't even want to review the charts, yet I'm afraid UNI might suddenly surge, and I'd regret it.
Back to the point.
Conclusion: 7.48 is not a level worth taking profits on long positions, nor is it worth opening short positions here. This is a place to wait and see.
If you want to short UNI, do it around 8.45.
Reason: Among the coins that started weakening and falling this round, UNI ranks first, and ETH probably ranks second.
After breaking below 8.45, UNI plunged sharply, breaking 7.48 and then below 7.
Originally, the 7.48 resistance level was already tough for UNI, but the market has been oscillating upward strongly in the last 72 hours, giving UNI a bit of breathing room.
But even that breathing room can't save UNI now.
Still weak, just following the market. Long position holders need to be more careful, of course, I'm talking about short-term trades.
I won't analyze long-term issues in my post; I only discuss short-term operations!!#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, testing the expectations of interest rate hikes. What impact will this have on $BTC and $ETH?
From the macro event of "rising interest rate hike expectations" alone, there is no direct positive effect on BTC and ETH. Interest rate hike expectations mainly suppress crypto assets through two channels: first, by raising the risk-free rate of return (such as U.S. Treasuries), causing funds to flow out of risk assets; second, by tightening liquidity, which inhibits new capital inflows.
However, the market's actual reaction is not linear and may present short-term trading opportunities due to "exhausted negative factors" or "expectation gaps":
BTC: Relatively resistant to decline but cannot escape macroeconomic pressure
ETH: More elastic but with more pronounced downside risk
With CPI/PPI announcements imminent, the baseline scenario for BTC/ETH is a macro stress test rather than a positive catalyst. BTC is relatively resistant to decline but its rebound is limited; ETH experiences greater volatility and more concentrated downside risk. Real opportunities only exist if the data is significantly below expectations, creating an "expectation gap," but this is a short-term trading opportunity and does not change the overall suppression pattern under a high interest rate environment.$MAGIC Over 80% of the bulls are making money, but combined they’ve only earned 140,000!
Looking at the data, the profit ratio among bulls is as high as 81.43%. On the surface, most people are making money, but the total unrealized profit for bulls is only a mere 140,000. Why? Because the average cost for bulls is 0.119, which is very close to the current price, so each coin only earns just over 0.005. 🔥 $HYPE has been quite interesting recently, with institutional activity and high open interest. What’s the outlook going forward?
Hyperliquid ($HYPE) has maintained a high level of discussion these days.
Currently, the price is hovering around 85 USD, with moderate volatility. On-chain perpetual contract open interest previously hit a new high, with market share approaching 12%, indicating a significant amount of real money involved.
Key points to watch:
1. Fundamentals: Implementation of HIP-3 expansion + ongoing token buybacks provide support on the demand side.
2. Capital: Large institutional trades are still occurring; the unlocking pressure from key contributors in early October has been partially absorbed, so it depends on whether buyers can absorb the selling pressure going forward.
3. Market: If short-term key support holds, there is still room to the upside; if broken, a correction may come first.
My view:
Short term is still slightly bullish, but volatility is certain. Suitable for small positions to follow along, avoid heavy exposure at once. Focus on changes in open interest and the progress of buybacks.
What do you think? Will $HYPE continue to surge, or will it correct first before finding another opportunity?
Share your thoughts in the comments~
$HYPE $BTC $ETH $ETH 【横盘思考03】如果让我在当前选择一个主方向，我选择：中短期略偏空，优先观察2490失守后的2470至2450；如果4小时向上有效突破2550，则放弃短期继续下跌的主判断。同时会把2405当作潜在测试目标，而不是必定被击穿的低点。
观察点位🧐
2515–2520 整理上沿 1小时能否收盘突破
2500–2505 当前中枢 是否持续反复穿越
2490–2495 整理下沿附近 跌破后能否反抽站回
2470–2475 下方次级支撑 是否出现持续买盘
2445–2450 深度回踩区域 4小时是否止跌
2405 关键前低 是否真正形成更低低点
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Today’s drop is significant, but it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the first to look weak.
$JUP dropped about 4.1% in the past 24 hours, but it’s still up about 4.9% over the week and about 44% over the month. Today’s performance isn’t good, but the overall phase still retains an advantage. So for now, I won’t classify it as weak just based on one day’s decline.
What really needs to be watched is whether this pullback will continue to expand. If it stops and then recovers upward, the previous performance can still be recognized; if it keeps falling and erases the weekly gains, expectations need to be lowered. For now, acknowledge the correction and don’t use “good previous gains” as a reason to ignore subsequent changes.
$AAVE is up about 33% over the month, down about 8% over the week, and still down about 1.4% in the past 24 hours. Its monthly gains remain, but it needs to prove itself again in the short term.
For the next rebound, I’m more concerned about whether it can surpass the previous rebound peak. If every rebound stops earlier, the recovery isn’t solid enough; if it can gradually rise higher, then consider whether it’s starting to strengthen. For now, don’t relax price expectations just because you’re familiar with the project.
$XRP only dropped about 0.8% in the past 24 hours, but it fell about 6.6% over the week and its monthly gain is only about 1.6%. A small drop today doesn’t mean this round’s performance is strong.
What it needs is to actively reclaim lost ground, not just occasionally drop less. If it continues to rise later, it can be reassessed; if rebounds remain slow, control your position first and don’t take “looking stable” as a direct reason to buy.过去几天，加密市场经历了一轮明显的杠杆清洗。
24小时爆仓规模约11.9亿美元，其中超过10亿美元来自多头。$ETH ETH爆仓约3.56亿美元，甚至高于BTC的2.98亿美元，说明以太坊上的杠杆和抛售压力更加集中。CoinDesk
目前$BTC BTC反弹至83,000附近，ETH回到2,500附近。这里首先要判断的是：市场正在反转，还是清算结束后的超跌修复？
从结构来看，答案仍然偏向后者。
BTC：守住了低点，但还没有收复失地
BTC在80,300—81,300出现明显承接，快速下探后重新回到83,000附近，说明下方存在买盘。
但目前价格仍在83,800—84,500反弹分界下方。这个区域也是前一轮下跌后留下的套牢盘密集区。
接下来重点观察：
83,800—84,500：反弹强弱分界
85,500—87,000：前高压力区
80,300—81,300：核心支撑区
如果站上84,500，回踩还能守住，价格才有机会重新测试85,500—87,000。
如果反弹始终过不了84,500，并重新跌破82,000，那么大概率还会回测80,300—81,300。$ARX Damn it! The chart of ARX is making my blood pressure rise. At the 0.2705 level, it's quiet outside, but the order book is full of dogs biting dogs, with very obvious signs of funds aggressively pushing up and smashing down. 💡
A typical pre-washout setup, the dog manipulators have their sickles raised to the neck. This kind of no-chat, no-news, purely fund-driven back-and-forth charting is nine times out of ten going to stab downwards.
I placed a short at 0.2705, stop loss at 0.2830; if it breaks, I accept it. Don’t ask me about the target, survival first.
If you want to follow, watch the order book on the lower market card, don’t go all in on impulse, control your position and always bring a stop loss. Do you dare to catch this wave? 👇👇👇
Content is only my personal review, not investment advice.$BTC $ETH $ZEC It's so miserable! I currently have a total of 9 positions, among which the two with the biggest losses are the BTC short and ETH long positions.
1. $BTC USDT perpetual | short, 50x full position
Opening average price 80995U, current mark price 82966U. The market is rising, short position losing. Floating loss 648U, return rate -121.66%.
2. $ETH USDT perpetual | long, 50x full position
Opening average price 2661U, current mark price 2500U. The market is falling, long position trapped. Floating loss 1222U, return rate -302.24%, maintenance margin rate also 665.51%.
The idea behind this operation was to hedge by locking positions, originally intending to use the BTC short to hedge the ETH long to reduce the risk of a one-sided market.
But now the market is oscillating upward, BTC price rises, short position loses money; ETH price falls back, long position loses money. Both sides lose simultaneously, getting hit from both ends.
Opening 9 positions at once, with positions dispersed and hedged long and short, seems to reduce one-sided risk, but actually the account burden is heavy, and funds are continuously being depleted.
Lessons must be learned going forward: try to reduce long-short locked positions, streamline the number of holdings, avoid opening a large number of positions at once, and also reduce leverage.
Are there any brothers also holding locked positions, experiencing this torment of losing on both sides together? #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Institutions continue to layout, why does BTC still remain under pressure? #CheckInWithOKX2049 $ETH 【Sideways Thinking 02】Scenario A: First break down, then retest the low point, I currently lean slightly towards
Price first breaks below 2490 to 2495, rebounds but fails to hold above 2500, then probes 2470, 2445, and finally tests 2405. This path only clearly strengthens the judgment of a downtrend continuation if the consolidation zone is broken and the rebound failure is confirmed.
Scenario B: False breakout upwards, then falls back. First breaks through 2515 to 2520, triggering short-term stop losses, surges to 2530 to 2550, but fails to hold above 2550 on the 4-hour chart, then falls back below 2520.
This is a movement worth guarding against. Because the current volatility is small, short-term traders can easily mistake the initial breakout for a trend start.
Scenario C: 2405 has already formed a phase bottom. After breaking through 2520, it does not quickly fall back but instead retests to confirm support, then breaks through 2550, repairing towards the 2570 to 2620 area. In this case, 2405 may be the phase bottom, and the market does not need to test it downward again. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $ETH 【Sideways Thinking 01】From the 4-hour structure, a rapid drop occurred on October 9, with a low of 2405.03. It then rebounded, reaching a high near 2520, but failed to continue the upward attack.
What is truly worth studying here is:
The price rebounded about 4%, but did not successfully break through 2520, nor did it fall back to 2405.
This means there is indeed buying support near 2405, but there is also selling pressure near 2520. Based on candlesticks alone, it is impossible to determine which type of main force these funds belong to, let alone their true intentions.
First, the 4-hour Bollinger middle band is about 2496.59, and the current price is near 2500, almost running along the middle band.
Second, the 4-hour MA5 is about 2503, MA10 about 2499, and MA20 about 2497; the three moving averages have already converged closely.
Third, the 1-hour MA20 is about 2505, SAR about 2509; the rebound is still constrained by short-term resistance above.
They do not reflect a strong bearish signal but rather that the previous trend momentum has disappeared, and the short-term market is reselecting its direction.
From the market structure perspective, not falling for two consecutive days indicates there is indeed some support near 2500. The bears have not shown the ability to immediately continue to crash the market.
Conversely, not rising for two consecutive days also proves that the current bulls lack clear breakout capability.
Therefore, I would not interpret this sideways movement as absolute accumulation or distribution. It is currently just an unresolved supply-demand balance zone. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test Sisters, this altcoin's pump-and-dump operator really understands human nature and knows how to torment people's hearts.
This time it's sideways again.
Last time when $CAP rose to 0.07, it stayed sideways for a whole half month!
This time at 0.09, I feel it will also stay sideways for half a month.
If you say it has strength, it doesn't have much; if you say it has no strength, it still manages to stay sideways here to torment the shorts.
When most shorts get mentally worn down and switch from short to long, it starts dumping.
Looking at the candlesticks, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all tangled together, price stuck at 0.092, neither alive nor dead.
The MACD below is even more disgusting, DIF 0.00041, DEA 0.00048, just formed a death cross near the zero line, and the green bars are tiny.
It can't go up nor down; this is the pump-and-dump operator playing psychological warfare, wearing down the hawks!
My short positions are really miserable.
The short at 0.07031 is nearly 100% floating loss, the short at 0.03975 is over 400% floating loss, both orders hanging high on the tree, pressed to the ground and bleeding crazily.
Looking at these red numbers, my heart is bleeding.😭
But I just won't run!
This kind of market relies entirely on emotion and funding rates to hold up; the higher it rises, the longer it stays sideways. Once it crashes, it will definitely cause a chain of liquidations and a stampede.
Right now it just wants to wear me out, waiting for me to give up and go long, then it will strike hard.
I refuse to follow its wishes.
In terms of operation, at this position, definitely don't go heavy; you can short lightly, just a little to wear down its patience.
The target remains unchanged: wait patiently for it to fall back to 0.06 or even lower.
Tonight is another day of just cooking instant noodles, chewing on fish mint leaves tastes bitter.
No cutting losses, no surrender, shorts will never bow down.
$BTC
$ETH
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Institutions keep positioning, why is BTC still under pressure? 🔥 Evening News (1): "Uptober" cools down, BTC 82,780 shows weak rebound, predicted market price drops below 80,000 in October with a 67% probability; (2) SOL new addresses surge 124% but price fell 4.48% to 109.66, showing a clear on-chain divergence from price; (3) SUI shows sell signals on daily charts, with selling pressure accumulating after the rise. Liquidity: BTC/ETH ETF outflows approach 1 billion in October, ETH has seen eight consecutive outflows, prompting institutional exits; SOL on-chain activity hits a new high (potential reversal signal); SUI official buyback mechanism (gas price reduced 5 times) provides bottoming support. 1-hour candlestick: BTC resistance at 83,000/84,000, support at 81,000/80,000, neutral bearish; ETH resistance at 2,550/2,600, support at 2,460/2,400, bearish; SOL resistance at 115/118, support at 108/105, bearish but focused on divergence recovery; SUI resistance at 1.15/1.17, support at 1.05/1.08, bearish $BTC $ETH $SOL #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure? #Russia relaxes diesel exports, Hormuz risk still supports oil prices
Currently, the market is still in a phase of structural repair rather than a trend reversal. There is a significant concentration of chips near 85000 above BTC, and the previous trapped positions have not been fully digested. When the price approaches this area, it is prone to selling pressure. Only a valid breakthrough and stabilization above 85000 can truly open up upside space; otherwise, the current rebound can only be defined as a technical repair after overselling, with a need for subsequent pullback confirmation.
ETH rebounded from 2350 to 2470, showing some recovery on the surface, but the previously broken key structural levels have not been reclaimed, so reversal conditions are insufficient. In the short term, pay attention to two levels: failure to break 2520 maintains a weak pattern, and if 2430 is lost, 2350 may be tested again.
SOL also follows the market's oscillation, rising from 102 to 108, but the resistance above remains unrelaxed. Forcing a chase at this stage, even if the directional judgment is correct, can easily lead to being shaken out amid repeated fluctuations.
Trading strategy: Wait for BTC to stabilize above 85000 before considering entry; closely watch ETH's reaction at the two key levels 2520 and 2430; temporarily observe SOL. The medium to long term remains bullish, even believing this cycle is not yet complete, but being bullish does not mean chasing every green candle.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Still waters ripple slightly, the knife is in the dark — The “night before liquidation” of BTC and ETH
This market, to put it bluntly, is more torturous than being in prison.
The price is stuck, neither rising nor falling, the candlesticks shrink into a slit, watching the charts makes your eyes sore. But it’s precisely at times like this that you need to stay alert — the calmer the surface, the more turbulent the undercurrents.
1. Technicals: Bollinger Bands narrowing, direction will emerge sooner or later
On the 4-hour and daily charts, both BTC and ETH have contracted into narrow boxes, the Bollinger Bands are tightening, volume has been shrinking as if drained dry, bulls and bears are tugging back and forth around several key moving averages, neither willing to let go first.
BTC’s MACD is basically flat, ETH’s RSI is stuck low and dull, there is indeed short-term demand for a rebound, but every bounce feels like a deflated ball — the buying side can’t catch up, the rebound feels more like fishing. The volume-price divergence is obvious, and the risk of a pullback has not been digested.
2. Capital: Leverage has retreated, but retail investors haven’t let go yet
Contract open interest has been sliding continuously, funding rates have returned near zero, and several major exchanges’ funding rates have turned negative. On Binance, $BTC funding rate dropped to about -0.00215%, a nine-month low. In short, there are no new bullets in the field; an upward breakout would be water without a source.
More unsettling is the long-short ratio. Retail long positions remain crowded, $BTC contract long-short account ratio is still around 1.45, and ETH’s long concentration is also high. Big money isn’t stupid — the more retail holds on, the less willing the main force is to lift the market. Cleaning out floating chips is never an "if" but a "when."
3. News: CPI/PPI is the knife hanging overhead
Next week, US CPI and PPI data will be released, directly affecting the Fed’s rate expectations and thus impacting the crypto market. If inflation data exceeds expectations, the probability of rate hikes will jump immediately, and the crypto market will be the first to feel the impact. Meanwhile, $BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $681 million last week, and $ETH spot ETFs have had net outflows for nine consecutive trading days; institutions are also holding back and watching. The Fed’s stance is hawkish, treasury yields remain high, and the overall macro environment is unfriendly to risk assets.
4. Trading strategy: Don’t rush, prioritize survival
Extreme volume contraction often precedes a one-sided market. Under the overcrowded long positions, the probability of a downward false breakout and stop-loss hunting is significantly higher. Coinglass data shows that if $ETH falls below $2392, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major exchanges will reach $475 million. This money is the "liquidation knife" hanging over the longs’ heads.
Wait for volume to pick up and stabilize before following on the right side, or wait for a sharp drop and wick before acting. Light positions, stop losses, don’t fight the trend, don’t catch falling knives — these old rules are not nonsense, they are survival charms.
Finally, a heartfelt word:
In this grinding sideways market, the worst is not losing money, but being numbed by boring oscillations and thinking "it’s just like this anyway." The main force never acts during the excitement; the quieter the market, the more you need to listen carefully. Control your hands, protect your capital, and wait for real signals of a trend change before stepping in.
Don’t rush, let the bullets fly a while. But don’t forget, the gun is already loaded.
#CPI and PPI release imminent, rate hike expectations face test #Institutions keep positioning, why is BTC still under pressure? #Volatility Radar: Coin movement watch In the past 72 hours, three things happened simultaneously: whales are buying up, leverage is being liquidated, and prices are going down. It sounds contradictory, but actually, these are two sides of the same coin.
1. Let's look at the numbers first
Analyst ali_charts counted that in the last 72 hours, whale groups increased holdings by about 15,000 $BTC, over 166,000 $ETH, and about 45 million $XRP. Based on the buying price range, the market value of this batch of $BTC chips is about $1.245 billion. Strategy continues to add positions, holding about 848,000 $BTC. Bitwise also had a net inflow of $10.55 million in a single day when $XRP dropped to around $1.43 — it was the only ETF still net buying $XRP that day.
Money is coming in, but prices are going out. So who is selling?
2. Most sellers are not "bearish"
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated $1.339 billion, with longs accounting for $1.18 billion and shorts only $159 million. 166,000 accounts were liquidated, nearly 90% of which were long positions. These people did not "change their beliefs" — their margin was wiped out and they were forcibly sold by the exchange system.
It's even clearer on the $ETH side: a giant whale was liquidated of 28,720 $ETH long positions near $2,420, losing $4.48 million. Half an hour later, he added $10 million margin and repurchased about 9,580 $ETH at $2,428. After being sold by the system, he bought back himself.Long-term thinking: The market is always iterating, maintain a learning mindset 📚
The crypto sector continues to evolve, old narratives gradually lose relevance, and new narratives constantly emerge.
Current challenges:
Relying on outdated experience from years ago, fixed thinking, unable to adapt to market changes;
Making money from one market cycle and believing you have mastered the market's winning formula;
Stopping learning and ignoring the long-term impacts of regulation and technological iteration.
Two possible paths:
Path A: Hold $BTC and $ETH long-term, continuously track industry changes, and try new sectors like MKR and CRV with small positions.
Path B: Adopt a conservative approach, keep observing the industry, and avoid blindly chasing endless new concepts.
The market is always evolving; staying humble and continuously learning is the only way to sustain through cycles.
Unified note: All the above are personal reflections on the market and do not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please participate rationally.
#CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Gold ETFs attract record inflows, high interest rates still suppress gold prices
#SpaceX plans to acquire spectrum to expand mobile communications Transaction failed, Gas will not be refunded
The on-chain status showing "failed" does not mean validators did nothing. After a transaction is included in a block, nodes still execute instructions in order until a rollback condition is met or Gas is exhausted; the computational resources already consumed cannot be undone, so the corresponding fees are still borne by the sender. What is refunded is the unused Gas amount, not the entire transaction fee. This is why a single incorrect authorization, expired quote, or insufficient slippage still reduces the $ETH in your wallet.
This rule is not to punish operational mistakes but to prevent attackers from occupying the entire network's computation for free. If failed transactions were completely free, anyone could continuously submit complex calls that are guaranteed to roll back, filling up execution resources. Charging fees makes "failed computations" costly, so the network does not bear the trial-and-error bills for the sender.
A more important conclusion for ordinary users is: the failure rate itself is a product quality indicator. An application that constantly forces users to retry, even if each time only a small amount of Gas is lost, will quickly consume trust. To judge whether the $ETH ecosystem is healthy, one should not only count successful transactions but also examine whether failure reasons stem from poor quotes, frontend estimation, or contract design. Real adoption means not only being able to go on-chain but also minimizing users' payments for invalid executions.TIA rose more than 25% in one day, CFX nearly 16%, but FIL fell 7%. Even though they are all Web3, the capital treats them like three different account managers. A few days ago, the market was still worried about oil prices and geopolitical risks; over the weekend, as the news eased, capital began to seek high-elasticity assets again. But the biggest gains don’t mean they are suitable for blind chasing. Today, let's see who has room to continue and who is likely to trap buyers during the rebound. 🟢 TIA｜Strong breakout, caution against chasing high The OKEx contract snapshot this morning was about 0.6046, up 25.51% in 24H, with a turnover of 69.13 million USD and an open interest of about 5.84 million USD. Trading is active, but the position size is not large, so volatility can be amplified. Today's setup: Direction: breakout bullish Trigger 0.620｜Stop loss 0.590 Target①0.650｜Target②0.680 The second target has a gross risk-reward ratio of 2:1 🟢 CFX｜Capital rotation observation Reference price 0.05967, up 15.86% in 24H, turnover 90.69 million USD, open interest about 4.62 million USD. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests Turnover far exceeds open interest, short-term turnover is active, but this alone cannot confirm that the main force is accumulating. Today's setup: Direction: cautiously bullish Trigger 0.0605｜Stop loss 0.0585 Target①0.0625｜Target②0.0645 The second target has a gross risk-reward ratio of 2:1 🔴 FIL｜Rebound failed to hold, first focus on defense Reference price 1.0913, down 7.03% in 24H,Someone poured a whole bucket of boiling old marinade directly into my broth pot—$25 billion pricing, four new shareholders stepping onto my prep station riding on the tail of that old March account. This isn’t just adding ingredients; it’s pressing down the stock into the soup.
First, look at the ratio. The base broth is stablecoins, the old marinade, getting better with age but most afraid of dilution; the serving window is payments, the speed of delivery depends entirely on whether this line is clogged; the heat is liquidity—too fierce, and the steak’s surface chars while the inside remains bloody; the cold storage is custody, the kitchen’s lifeline—two degrees off, and the whole cabinet of Wagyu is wasted the next day. These four flavors are the hard foundation, no one can touch them.
Now look at the four new shareholders entering: a stablecoin issuer, a veteran quantitative market maker, a pipeline operator specializing in cross-border settlement, and a bank-affiliated venture capital firm. All four seasonings go into the pot simultaneously, the message is clear—this soup is upgrading from a private dish to an institutional banquet; saltiness, oil temperature, and product standards all need to be recalibrated.
What really raised my eyebrows was the draft menu of tokenized stocks. Sixty-three companies listed in New York, each made into vacuum-sealed, labeled, ready-to-serve packages. Sixty-three dishes, all lined up in the same cold cabinet. And the flagship card leader is the pricing anchor for the entire menu—the spot market is open flame, tokens are induction stove; they look equally red and hot, but the temperature adjustment is always half a beat off. Don’t underestimate that half beat—in the heat of a stir-fry, half a beat is the wok’s breath, the difference between raw and cooked, the distance that cuts through the gut.
Then there’s the 30-day "issuer retractable" window. Industry jargon calls it the tasting period. The chef serves the dish today, but if the mood sours tomorrow, the whole plate can be taken back. Vacuum packs aren’t freshly cooked—fresh cooking needs the breath at the stove, vacuum packs only need an unbroken cold chain.
Finally, the most common mistake in this kitchen: leverage is the extra spicy chili. The main dish is solid, the heat steady, the broth thick enough—dare to add a pinch to enhance flavor; but if the main dish itself is a vacuum-sealed pre-made pack and still not spicy enough, they keep pouring chili extract spoonful by spoonful into the pot—that’s not seeking pleasure, that’s gambling with your gut.
Right now, the saltiness of my pot is just right, the fire strong enough, and all sixty-three dishes are still in the tasting period. If anyone serves vacuum packs as freshly cooked signature dishes and adds extra spicy chili to enhance flavor, my kitchen won’t take their guts. #okx25binvestmentBase fee increase is not a vote for $ETH
When seeing Gas suddenly become expensive, many people directly translate it as "bullish on $ETH." This conclusion is too far-reaching. Under EIP-1559, the base fee for the next block mainly refers to how much Gas was used in the previous block: if above the target, the base fee increases; if below the target, the base fee decreases. It primarily reflects whether block space is congested in the short term and does not identify whether traders are buying, selling, liquidating, or rushing to mint assets.
The same round of congestion can come from a new application explosion, contract accidents, airdrop claims, or arbitrage bots competing with each other. On-chain demand is real, but the quality of demand is completely different. What matters to $ETH holders is not just capturing a single Gas spike, but tracking whether this demand can be repeated, whether it brings real settlement, and whether users continue to stay after fees fall.
The base fee will be burned, so congestion does increase short-term burn volume; but a single high fee is just a traffic bill, not a value conclusion. What really matters is whether activity, willingness to pay, and retention can all continue simultaneously. If fees only spike during event windows and then transactions and users recede together, temporary competition should not be mistaken for long-term adoption.$STRK 的爆发，核心是“低位赛道轮动+极高弹性”。资金避高就低，回流前期被错杀的标的，而该币底部结构扎实，启动后量价配合极佳，多头控盘流畅。五十倍多单拿到现在，吃的是情绪修复与空头回补共振。当前位置已脱离底部，短线情绪亢奋。策略转向保守：锁利为主，保本损兜底，底仓博弈延伸。五十倍忌贪心，没上车的等回踩支撑，别高位接盘。$BTC $ETH #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
The big test is really coming next week, with CPI and PPI all packed together.
At 8:30 PM on the 14th, the September CPI and core CPI will be released first. At the same time on the 15th, PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims will follow. Once these data are out, the Fed's decision on whether to raise interest rates and when will basically become clear.
What's the market situation now? The probability of a rate hike in October is only 18%, with most funds expecting to wait until December. But pay attention, energy prices have been pushing up recently, which could raise overall inflation. The real key is not the overall CPI, but the core CPI. If the core is also strong, it means price pressures are spreading, and the rate hike expectations will immediately return. If the core is moderate, the logic for pausing rate hikes is confirmed, and Bitcoin can catch a breather.
For us, this is a typical stage of holding back big moves. Funds are all waiting for the data, and no one dares to heavily bet on a direction. If the data is stronger than expected, US Treasury yields will surge, and Bitcoin will take a hit in the short term. If the data is weak, the dollar will weaken, and Bitcoin will have a chance to bounce.
Still the same advice: don't bet on direction, it's unnecessary, patiently waiting is the safest approach
$BTC $BTC dominance is 59.7%, the entire market at $2.79 trillion dropped 2.67% in one day, yet the top gainers are sidechains and Rollups. Bitcoin Sidechains rose 19.7%, SideChain 15.8%, Rollup 14.7%, all in the scaling category, two of which are linked to the Bitcoin ecosystem. My judgment is that existing funds are relocating. USDT market cap is down 0.01% in 24 hours, with no new money entering. Dominance remains high, most funds are still parked in Bitcoin, only a small portion flows to scaling sectors, where even a little money can push small sectors to double-digit gains. Fear and greed index dropped from 65 a week ago to 61, sentiment is cooling down. This round looks like short-term speculation within the scaling narrative, not spreading to other altcoins. Continued shrinkage of USDT market cap and dominance rising from 59.7% would signal an end. If USDT undergoes a token issuance increase, I will change my view.