Post
wesley教授
Influential Creator
很多人到现在还以为打仗利好避险、利空风险资产。这几年的盘面早就把这套教科书撕了。
真正的传导链是：地缘紧张，油价涨，通胀黏住，降息被推后，所有风险资产一起挨揍。所以战争的敌人从来不是"风险偏好"，是"利率"。
现在反过来跑了一遍：伊朗预期一松，布伦特一天跌百分之七点六、WTI 跌回九十六出头，通胀这条绳子松了，降息的路也就宽了。
这对风险资产是底层利好。只是利好归利好，$BTC 认不认是另一回事，宏观给的是环境，不是替你买单的理由。
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