Can you still hold onto your $93 SOL?
ETF has seen continuous net outflows, with $71.6 million running off in one week, down 68% from its all-time high, and the whole screen is full of people calling SOL trash—but just as you're about to cut losses, Samsung Wallet quietly integrated Solana, Schroders moved bond funds onto the chain, and the Breakpoint conference kicks off next week in London. Is this the last chance to escape before a crash, or just a classic panic washout orchestrated by whales?
Let's look at the surface first: bad news bombardment, but the price just won't break 90.
After weeks of steady decline, the daily RSI dropped to 28-30, technically oversold. Trading volume remains active over 24 hours, with 89.8 stubbornly holding. The candlesticks tell you: the price is clinging just above the 200-day moving average (around 89), and the upward trendline since June is right beneath. All indicators scream oversold, but retail only sees "down."
First thing: ETFs are running, but institutions are doing something else.
In one week at the end of October, SOL spot ETFs saw net outflows of $71.6 million, with inflows near zero for many days. Sounds scary?
But look at another set of data: tokenized asset size broke $5 billion to a new high, stablecoin supply is $14.6 billion, Samsung Wallet plans to support USDC cross-border transfers on Solana, and Schroders—a giant asset manager with nearly a trillion dollars under management—has moved bond funds onto Solana.
In plain terms: retail is selling ETFs, institutions are building infrastructure.
The same script played out before SOL rose from $8 to $293 in 2023. Back then, ETFs didn’t even exist, and everyone called it a "downtime chain," but then Visa and PayPal came in, and the price multiplied 30 times. Remember this: ETF outflows are sentiment, institutions going on-chain is the trend. Sentiment can deceive, trends don’t.
Second thing: Breakpoint kicks off next week, guess what news will drop?
November 15-17, London, Solana’s biggest annual conference.
Alpenglow upgrade is live, greatly improving finality. Validators are voting on inflation and fee proposals. Tokenized stocks, payment infrastructure, RWAs—all potential topics at this conference.
Do you know what SOL does around every Breakpoint? In 2023, SOL launched a major uptrend before and after Breakpoint. In 2024, ecosystem projects collectively exploded during the conference.
I’m not saying history will definitely repeat. I’m saying: cutting losses at 93 due to ETF outflows one week before a major catalyst—do the math yourself if that’s worth it.
Third thing: technically, SOL is at a "do or die" position.
90-91 is the upward trendline and recent low since June. 88-89 is the 200-day moving average.
These two levels together form SOL’s last mid-term defense line.
Daily RSI 28-30, oversold. MACD is still below zero, bears aren’t dead yet but stretched to the limit. Short-term rebound signs appear; 95-98 above is a must-pass hurdle.
Holding above 100 and reclaiming the 50-day moving average (around 108) would mark a mid-term trend reversal. But the first rebound battle starts right at 90-91.
Bull vs. bear showdown, you decide:
On the bullish side:
RSI 28-30, technically oversold to the extreme
Double support at 90-91 trendline + 88-89 moving average
Breakpoint conference catalyst next week
Samsung, Schroders, Visa, PayPal continuously onboarding
RWA breaks $5 billion new high, stablecoins at $14.6 billion
On the bearish side:
ETF outflow of $71.6 million in one week, institutions cooling off short-term
68% retracement from ATH, believers worn down
50-day moving average at 108 pressing down, mid-term trend bearish
Tightening macro, December rate hike priced in
Binance security incident rattling sentiment
Key levels
Resistance above: 95-98 → 100 (psychological) → 105-110 (50-day MA zone) → 120
Support below: 90-91 (trendline) → 88-89 (200-day MA) → 85 (breakdown abyss)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for a pullback to 90-91 with hammer or engulfing pattern + volume surge, go light long, stop loss below 88, target 95-98. Add positions if volume holds above 98, eyeing 100-105. If rebound stalls at 95-98 and falls back, reduce or lightly short, target retest 90.
Swing traders:
Build long positions in batches between 88-93, leverage controlled within 5-10x. Stop loss: daily close below 85-88. Targets first at 100-110 recovery, Breakpoint catalyst + ETF turning positive could push 120+.
Long-term believers:
DCA below 90. SOL is down 68%, but the ecosystem is more than twice as strong as in 2024. Target 200-300 by 2027, betting on RWA + payments + institutional adoption for a long-term positive cycle. But remember—don’t rush to fully load if 100 doesn’t hold.
SOL now is like SOL in August 2023—
Everyone was calling it a "downtime chain with no hope," then two months later Visa came in and it went from 20 to 100.
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