tvbee
tvbee
✦数据分析+宏观+投研 ✦人肉码字、人肉图表、非AI内容 ✦100%文章原创、拒绝人云亦云🦅 ✦PANews、Foresightnews、AIcoin等媒体专栏作者 ✦也是韭菜，分析能力大于交易水平，不撸毛
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The market, whenever it drops, immediately starts looking for reasons, without thinking deeply at all.
Actually, the AI boom is still related to the massive liquidity injection in 2020-21. That wave of funds flowed into the AI industry, and then AI technology exploded.
The funny thing is, now the Democrats think AI infringes on the rights of natural persons and have started cracking down again.
Actually, it's always been the Democrats' fault!
The Democrats seem to respect public opinion very much, but it seems they only look at the immediate public opinion and often overcorrect.
Marx's political economy has a point I agree with: the economic base determines the superstructure, but the superstructure also reacts on the economic base!
Getting off topic, but as I said, although I don't support Trump either, I don't think the Democrats coming to power will necessarily be good for the market, especially not in the short term. The short term will be a time of friction. The two chambers and the president will struggle, bulls and bears will clash.
Continue to hold $GOOGL
The daily RSI14 has not been this low since the AI boom started.
If the AI narrative continues, it should shift from infrastructure to the application layer. Brother Feng chooses to trust Google.
Additionally, Google's previous massive capital expenditures should eventually convert into technology, products, and profits...
Just my personal humble opinion, please don't laugh.
Forgive my jinx, but unfortunately, it came true. The rebound is not a reversal, but there’s no need to worry too much!
Since the midterm elections in 2006 when both chambers switched to the opposing party, the US stock market mainly experienced fluctuations rather than a major drop. Although the Democratic Party controls Congress and there are frictions with Trump, there is no friction between the two parties themselves.
I believe AI stocks are not a bubble burst.
First, human nature is similar, but last year some said the AI bubble burst, so after a rise, a pullback was expected.
Second, the 2000 event was a stock market bubble. The 2008 subprime crisis was a banking system bubble.
If there is a third, it probably won’t be a simple repeat.
Third, the current US stock market is experiencing relatively healthy exponential growth, whereas 2000 was a bubble-like exponential growth. See the article from November 3 for details.
Fourth, regarding individual stock P/E ratios, it is generally believed that a P/E ratio not exceeding 20 is not considered a bubble. So, is there a bubble in AI?
NVDA’s PE (ttm): 23.061
MU’s PE (ttm): 8.957
SNDK’s PE (ttm): 6.612
Fifth, historically before the three major US stock market crashes, there was a phase where the SPX was rising but its PE (ttm) was falling. This is because earnings grew too fast, overdrawing future demand, and stock prices gradually couldn’t keep up. That is not the case now.
After a bubble bursts, there is also a characteristic: SPX falls but PE rises because company earnings fall faster than stock prices. As analyzed earlier, earnings overdrew future demand.
Currently, there is no sign of this.
tvbee
History often rhymes, Trump lost both chambers, is it a rebound or a reversal?
┈➤ Why did Trump lose?
History is rhyming; this is not Trump's first midterm election, but in 2018 he only lost the House of Representatives while still holding the Senate.
In the past 30 years, the only time both chambers changed party control simultaneously was in 2006 under George W. Bush. This might not be a coincidence, as in 2003 Bush was engaged in the Iraq war.
Trump provoking conflict with Iran is a reason.
┈➤ Rebound or reversal?
First, I don't think there will be an immediate reversal. Looking at the previous chart, after midterm elections, unless the controlling party in both chambers remains unchanged, historically there is no immediate big market rally.
Fortunately, the simultaneous "change of control" in both chambers happened in 2006, not 2018. After the 2018 midterms, there was a further significant drop, while 2006 was mainly a sideways shakeout.
Second, although the midterms changed the composition of both chambers, the president is still Trump. The previously approved temporary budget runs until the end of December; what Trump's subsequent budget proposals will be remains to be seen.
Third, do both chambers have the ability to stop Trump's actions against Iran? If they do, can it be done in the short term? If done quickly, will the CPI drop in the short term?
Therefore, my subjective judgment is: politically, there may still be some friction time between the two chambers and Trump. If fast, the market could improve in Q1 next year; if slow, then Q2.
Completely convinced, some people have already started fantasizing that the Democratic Party is good for crypto……
Not to mention that the Democratic Party leading both chambers can only serve as a check on Trump, not dominate unilaterally.
If there’s no market for altcoins in 2025, it’s actually a pit dug by Biden.
Everyone saw Biden’s massive liquidity injection during his term, the crazy bull market in 2021, but didn’t notice the landmines planted at that time.
The number of financing events skyrocketed in 2021! How big was this liquidity? In 2022, the number of financing events was even higher than in 2021, just with less total funding.
From 2013 to 2020, there were only 1,026 financing events in total, but in just 2021 and 2022, there were 2,971 financing events.
With so many VC coins concentrated to launch in 2025, no matter how much money the market has, it can’t absorb all these new coin releases!
You can blame Trump, although crypto’s poor performance in 2025 has little to do with him, his family did launch coins and there were suspicious insider trades on hyperliquid.
But the Democratic Party probably can’t be relied on either. They often have some well-meaning policies, massive liquidity injections to give money to the public, support for non-advantaged races and genders, and so on, but once the scale gets out of control, it’s a landmine. The crypto market’s poor state in 2025 is largely a landmine planted during Biden’s era.
An industry’s progression from startup to boom to slow growth is a normal natural law. Blaming anyone is useless, expecting anyone is even more futile. Face it rationally, invest healthily, abandon illusions, and manage your "greed" well!
Which sectors will benefit or suffer from the Democrats controlling both chambers?
Today's market seems to have already given the answer. The performance of the U.S. stock market on the day of the midterm elections:
╰✦ The biggest gainers were the consumer sectors
Walmart $WMT +3.45%
Costco $COST +2.67%
Procter & Gamble $PG +3.25%
Coca-Cola $KO -0.34%
╰✦ The tech sector was more divided
Semiconductors generally fell, but software and application-related stocks showed noticeable gains.
AMD +1.01%
NVIDIA NVDA -3.17%
Broadcom AVGO -2.00%
Micron MU -7.0%
Intel INTC -3.77%
Palantir PLTR -2.11%
Apple AAPL +5.31%
Microsoft MSFT +6.68%
╰✦ Energy stocks had the largest declines
The market fantasizes that Democrats controlling both chambers could end the U.S.-Iran war and lower oil prices.
Exxon $XOM -4.62%
Chevron $CVX -3.69%
Brother Feng has started building a position in CVX and has been wanting to buy it.
First, Brother Feng does not believe the Democrats will allow Iran to dilute its enriched uranium domestically; the agreement won't be that easy to sign. Second, even if the Democrats want to end the war, it won't happen that quickly. After all, Congress only serves as a constraint on the president. Third, Chevron is quite active in cooperation in Venezuela. So, even if oil prices fall, Chevron might still have an advantage in production.
tvbee
You can't help but believe it! The U.S. stock market tends to decline before the midterm elections, so what happens after the midterm elections?
┈➤ The stock market is very likely to fall before the midterm elections
Looking at the past 30 years of history, including 8 midterm elections this year, only before the 2014 midterm elections did the U.S. stock market not decline, but the Nasdaq 100 still had a sharp dip in October.
You can see that although the overall trend of the U.S. stock market in the past 30 years is upward, major drops or significant corrections are more likely to occur around the midterm elections.
So, is the current decline in the U.S. stock market due to the midterm elections? Or is it the bursting of the AI bubble?
┈➤ What about after the midterm elections?
In 1998, when the majority party in both houses remained unchanged, the U.S. stock market took off directly.
In 2006, when the majority party in both houses changed simultaneously, the market fluctuated sideways for 4 to 5 months (during which the S&P first rose moderately) before going up.
In the other 5 instances, one majority party remained unchanged while the other changed. Except for 2010, the U.S. stock market generally adjusted for two to three months after the midterm elections and then rose.
┈➤ What about this year?
But it is basically certain that the Republican Party will at least lose the House of Representatives, so the U.S. stock market is unlikely to start rising immediately after the midterm elections.
Overall, Feng Brother believes that starting from Q2 next year, things will gradually improve with more certainty, but not necessarily before then.
The pessimistic scenario is another two months of decline; the optimistic scenario is consolidation.
As for crypto, don't try to force it. As long as there is no major liquidity black swan event, BTC will fall but will not experience an especially exaggerated drop.
With all due respect!
If Iran has nuclear weapons and controls the Strait of Hormuz, do you think Iran would allow oil prices to drop?
So would the Democrats allow Iran to dilute enriched uranium domestically?
Even Khamenei himself said that switching to the Democrats wouldn’t change the US attitude toward Iran.
Brother Feng has always wanted to buy Chevron $CVX and has started building a position this time. I don’t think a ceasefire is certain, and even if it happens, it will be difficult in the short term.
tvbee
History often rhymes, Trump lost both chambers, is it a rebound or a reversal?
┈➤ Why did Trump lose?
History is rhyming; this is not Trump's first midterm election, but in 2018 he only lost the House of Representatives while still holding the Senate.
In the past 30 years, the only time both chambers changed party control simultaneously was in 2006 under George W. Bush. This might not be a coincidence, as in 2003 Bush was engaged in the Iraq war.
Trump provoking conflict with Iran is a reason.
┈➤ Rebound or reversal?
First, I don't think there will be an immediate reversal. Looking at the previous chart, after midterm elections, unless the controlling party in both chambers remains unchanged, historically there is no immediate big market rally.
Fortunately, the simultaneous "change of control" in both chambers happened in 2006, not 2018. After the 2018 midterms, there was a further significant drop, while 2006 was mainly a sideways shakeout.
Second, although the midterms changed the composition of both chambers, the president is still Trump. The previously approved temporary budget runs until the end of December; what Trump's subsequent budget proposals will be remains to be seen.
Third, do both chambers have the ability to stop Trump's actions against Iran? If they do, can it be done in the short term? If done quickly, will the CPI drop in the short term?
Therefore, my subjective judgment is: politically, there may still be some friction time between the two chambers and Trump. If fast, the market could improve in Q1 next year; if slow, then Q2.
History often rhymes, Trump lost both chambers, is it a rebound or a reversal?
┈➤ Why did Trump lose?
History is rhyming; this is not Trump's first midterm election, but in 2018 he only lost the House of Representatives while still holding the Senate.
In the past 30 years, the only time both chambers changed party control simultaneously was in 2006 under George W. Bush. This might not be a coincidence, as in 2003 Bush was engaged in the Iraq war.
Trump provoking conflict with Iran is a reason.
┈➤ Rebound or reversal?
First, I don't think there will be an immediate reversal. Looking at the previous chart, after midterm elections, unless the controlling party in both chambers remains unchanged, historically there is no immediate big market rally.
Fortunately, the simultaneous "change of control" in both chambers happened in 2006, not 2018. After the 2018 midterms, there was a further significant drop, while 2006 was mainly a sideways shakeout.
Second, although the midterms changed the composition of both chambers, the president is still Trump. The previously approved temporary budget runs until the end of December; what Trump's subsequent budget proposals will be remains to be seen.
Third, do both chambers have the ability to stop Trump's actions against Iran? If they do, can it be done in the short term? If done quickly, will the CPI drop in the short term?
Therefore, my subjective judgment is: politically, there may still be some friction time between the two chambers and Trump. If fast, the market could improve in Q1 next year; if slow, then Q2.
tvbee
You can't help but believe it! The U.S. stock market tends to decline before the midterm elections, so what happens after the midterm elections?
┈➤ The stock market is very likely to fall before the midterm elections
Looking at the past 30 years of history, including 8 midterm elections this year, only before the 2014 midterm elections did the U.S. stock market not decline, but the Nasdaq 100 still had a sharp dip in October.
You can see that although the overall trend of the U.S. stock market in the past 30 years is upward, major drops or significant corrections are more likely to occur around the midterm elections.
So, is the current decline in the U.S. stock market due to the midterm elections? Or is it the bursting of the AI bubble?
┈➤ What about after the midterm elections?
In 1998, when the majority party in both houses remained unchanged, the U.S. stock market took off directly.
In 2006, when the majority party in both houses changed simultaneously, the market fluctuated sideways for 4 to 5 months (during which the S&P first rose moderately) before going up.
In the other 5 instances, one majority party remained unchanged while the other changed. Except for 2010, the U.S. stock market generally adjusted for two to three months after the midterm elections and then rose.
┈➤ What about this year?
But it is basically certain that the Republican Party will at least lose the House of Representatives, so the U.S. stock market is unlikely to start rising immediately after the midterm elections.
Overall, Feng Brother believes that starting from Q2 next year, things will gradually improve with more certainty, but not necessarily before then.
The pessimistic scenario is another two months of decline; the optimistic scenario is consolidation.
As for crypto, don't try to force it. As long as there is no major liquidity black swan event, BTC will fall but will not experience an especially exaggerated drop.
The Democratic Party won both chambers, but do you think it's over?
Senate seats are 54:44, with 2 seats still undecided.
House seats are 222:138, with 75 seats still undecided.
However, don't forget that the significance of legislators and the president is different.
For the presidential election, 270 votes to 268 votes or 370 votes to 168 votes might not make much difference; it's the same president taking office.
But the two chambers' legislators are different. Take the House of Representatives as an example: currently, the results are 222 seats for the Democrats, 138 for the Republicans, and 75 seats undecided. Two extreme scenarios, 297:138 and 222:213, are different because the vote margin between the two parties affects decision-making in the House.
Take the recently discussed "Crypto Clarity Act" as an example. The Democrats are not very supportive of this bill. If the Democrats have 222 seats to the Republicans' 213, then after moderate amendments, the "Crypto Clarity Act" still has a chance to pass in the House. But if it's 297:138, the probability of the "Crypto Clarity Act" passing might be relatively slim.
This is the suspense that still exists in the midterm elections. The Republicans lost both chambers, but the suspense lies in how much they lost by. This is also very important!
You can't help but believe it! The U.S. stock market tends to decline before the midterm elections, so what happens after the midterm elections?
┈➤ The stock market is very likely to fall before the midterm elections
Looking at the past 30 years of history, including 8 midterm elections this year, only before the 2014 midterm elections did the U.S. stock market not decline, but the Nasdaq 100 still had a sharp dip in October.
You can see that although the overall trend of the U.S. stock market in the past 30 years is upward, major drops or significant corrections are more likely to occur around the midterm elections.
So, is the current decline in the U.S. stock market due to the midterm elections? Or is it the bursting of the AI bubble?
┈➤ What about after the midterm elections?
In 1998, when the majority party in both houses remained unchanged, the U.S. stock market took off directly.
In 2006, when the majority party in both houses changed simultaneously, the market fluctuated sideways for 4 to 5 months (during which the S&P first rose moderately) before going up.
In the other 5 instances, one majority party remained unchanged while the other changed. Except for 2010, the U.S. stock market generally adjusted for two to three months after the midterm elections and then rose.
┈➤ What about this year?
But it is basically certain that the Republican Party will at least lose the House of Representatives, so the U.S. stock market is unlikely to start rising immediately after the midterm elections.
Overall, Feng Brother believes that starting from Q2 next year, things will gradually improve with more certainty, but not necessarily before then.
The pessimistic scenario is another two months of decline; the optimistic scenario is consolidation.
As for crypto, don't try to force it. As long as there is no major liquidity black swan event, BTC will fall but will not experience an especially exaggerated drop.
Have the US and Iran made concessions on the nuclear issue and frozen assets? Beware of a possible reversal.
The core disagreement between the two sides is Iran's enriched uranium.
Trump would never allow Iran to dilute this enriched uranium domestically.
On the surface, Trump wants a better deal than Obama’s original one, where Iran handed over the enriched uranium to a third party, namely Russia. If Iran is allowed to dilute it domestically, where would Trump save face? Even if it is handed over to a third country again, Trump would still lose face.
In essence, Iran has relatively advanced centrifuges; if it dilutes the enriched uranium domestically, it can re-enrich it anytime using the centrifuges. In this case, Iran does not have nuclear weapons but effectively has quasi-nuclear weapons.
Therefore, Trump will not concede on this issue. And Iran, which controls the Strait of Hormuz, would not be willing to hand over the enriched uranium. Remember, Iran did not control the strait in 2005.
On the other hand, in 2005 Iran handed over enriched uranium, and Russia, in exchange, gave Iran a large amount of uranium powder. Now with Iran’s advanced centrifuges, giving uranium powder to Iran may no longer be appropriate.
It might be related to the midterm elections; both sides are creating a peaceful atmosphere, but beware of a reversal.
