無名先生
無名先生
主攻領域｜#Airdrops • 金融分析師、信息搬運工！
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Sell in panic, buy again after the drop. As a result, the average buyback price is even higher than the selling price.
According to Ember tracking, the cyclical loan whale 0xc79b previously sold 288.1 cbBTC in batches at an average price of about $77,592. Last night, it bought back at an average price of about $77,804.
Selling and buying, each coin ended up about $212 more expensive.
Daring to buy during a big drop doesn't mean it's cheaper than the last sale. Bottom fishing is an action, cost is the real account.
Yesterday watched 81,944. Today, even the recent moving averages are overhead.
$BTC overnight low hit 75,208, current price about 76,018.
1-hour chart, all three moving averages are above:
EMA20: 77,239.
EMA50: 78,056.
EMA200: 78,546.
A rebound does not equal a reversal. First see if it can reclaim the recent line, then see if the pullback can hold. It hasn't even passed the first hurdle yet, don't rush to call bottoming a victory.
Current price is still 1,221 USD away from the 1-hour EMA20.
🐂 BTC shows amazing resilience against declines!
During this period, the market faced multiple shocks:
The Nasdaq hit its largest single-day drop in 19 months
Ledger was attacked, and rumors of a $6.3 billion theft at Binance
The Democratic Party won big in the US midterm elections
Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1 billion over three days
Despite so many negative factors, $BTC only dropped 6% in 10 days.
This indicates that selling pressure in the market may not be as strong as expected, and BTC's resilience is worth noting.
⚡️U.S. stocks face a fierce sell-off!
It is reported that in just 55 minutes, the U.S. stock market lost $2.1 trillion in market value.
Market panic is rapidly escalating, with the risk of war in Iran and the domestic political situation in the U.S. intensifying investor unease.
Even U.S. stocks can't withstand this panic, and the $BTC market also needs to be alert to risks.
🚨 Gold rising to $4,128 does not mean a new round of rally has begun.
I am more inclined to believe this might be the last bull trap rebound.
Next, be cautious of another pullback; the possible trend could be:
$4,128 → $4,350 → $3,900 → $3,600 → $3,300 → then a new bull market starts.
A short-term rebound does not mean a trend reversal, so don’t easily become a high-level bag holder.
The same goes for $BTC; the crazier the market gets, the more you need to stay calm.
If you want to know why this round of sell-off is so fierce, save this first!
Nasdaq: -5.1%
S&P 500: -3%
$MU: -17%
$SNDK: -18%
This looks more like a broad-based passive sell-off rather than a problem in a single sector.
From financial stocks to AI infrastructure, almost all assets are falling.
Even high-quality companies like $MU, $AMZN, and $NVDA have been hit hard because when funds urgently need cash, the easiest assets to sell are often the most liquid ones.
But the fundamentals of AI have not disappeared because of this:
AMD’s earnings guidance exceeded market expectations.
SMCI’s single-quarter revenue reached $19.9 billion.
$MU and $SNDK reportedly have their production capacity booked for the next several years, with contracts including margin guarantees.
The real issue is the macro environment: the Iran war is pushing up oil prices, inflation is under renewed pressure, and market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have changed.
My view is: short-term charts may look bad, but that doesn’t mean the AI industry logic has ended.
Maji is still adding money to this long position.
From 7:08 to 7:11 this morning, he first closed 180 $ETH, losing about 18,000 USD.
At 9:03 he bought 5 more, and at 9:07 bought another 10. As of 9:09, he still holds 530 long positions, 25x full margin.
Average price 2,305, current price about 2,244. The account net value is only 46,000 USD left, holding a position of about 1.19 million USD.
Last night I wrote that he was only 19 USD away from forced liquidation. After reducing and adding positions all night, now he is about 43 USD away from the new liquidation line.
His historical total profit and loss on Hyperliquid: about -37.4 million USD.
Maji's long position on this trade is still making $139,000. Only $19 left before liquidation.
$ETH just dropped below 2,400. As of 20:59, he holds 5,250 ETH longs at an average price of 2,366, liquidation price 2,373.7, current price 2,392.
Only $347,000 left in the account, holding a position worth $12.56 million. Unrealized profit can't save him; if it drops another 0.8%, this position is gone.
So starting from 20:32, he sells a bit every few minutes, selling 1,950 ETH at 23 minutes.
And just in the hour around midnight today, he chased in 3,485 ETH at 2,437.
In the same hour, someone else is counting money.
That 40x Bitcoin whale 0x4b62 on Hyperliquid opened 94 short contracts at 80,540 at 4:24 PM. Bitcoin dropped below 80,000 at 20:35, and at 20:56 he closed 72 contracts at 79,706, pocketing $60,400.
In the past hour, the whole network liquidated $43.12 million, of which $42.17 million were longs.
Maji's historical total P&L on Hyperliquid: -$37.05 million.
🚨 A $BTC wallet that had been dormant for over three years with 1,900 coins woke up twice, and both times sent the coins to market makers.
On the afternoon of June 21, 2023, it received these 1,900 coins. That day, Bitcoin was at 28,800, so the whole batch was worth just under $55 million.
Then 1,227 days passed without a single move.
The first wake-up was at 7:30 PM on October 30. That was the day Binance was hacked and Bitcoin dropped over $5,000 in one day. 449.5 coins were transferred to Wintermute.
The second was just now, at 16:52. 1,208.5 coins, again to Wintermute, worth about $97.3 million.
Coins sent to market makers are never just stored there. Bought at 28,800 and sold for over 80,000, a 2.8x increase. He’s not in a hurry; he picks the days.
Out of the 1,900 coins, only 242 remain undistributed as of today.
