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#闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13%
The leader has something to say
This script for SanDisk is too typical. Q1 revenue surged 378% year-over-year, Q2 guidance exceeded expectations, and they announced a 1-for-8 stock split. So what happened? On October 30th, the stock plunged 13.47% in a single day.
The reason is obvious. The stock has already risen about 460% this year, with valuation and expectations fully priced in. When you reveal all your trump cards (explosive earnings growth, strong guidance, stock split) at once, there’s no room left for higher-than-expected surprises, so the first reaction from investors is to take profits. Plus, last night the global market underwent indiscriminate deleveraging, and high-priced stocks were treated like ATMs.
Today SNDK rose slightly by 0.25%, xSNDK up 0.13%, just a weak recovery, don’t mistake it for a reversal. Bitcoin dropped below 77,000 last night and is still grinding below. Let’s see if it can reclaim 80,000. If it can’t hold, expect deeper pullbacks, with resistance between 84,000 and 85,000 above. Don’t chase the rally or panic sell; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop losses. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SOL Let me first do a straightforward calculation: the maximum annual issuance rate drops from 2.5% to 1.6%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, which is a relative reduction of 36%, but this does not mean the supply immediately decreases by 36%. NEAR's House of Stake has voted to approve this adjustment, planning to implement it in phases over 24 months. $NEAR holders need to clearly understand these two accounts.
I think this is useful for long-term supply accounting, but it cannot yet be considered a demand-side positive. With the issuance cap lowered, dilution pressure will ease; quarterly reports can verify actual issuance against the plan, making auditing easier. However, if reduced issuance affects validator incentives, then how to balance the security budget is the risk I am more concerned about. This is my speculation, not a result that has already occurred.
According to my usual approach, to be cautious: currently, it still needs to go through security committee review, approval, about a 90-day grace period, and validator upgrade adoption. I will first observe these steps. Will you play it safe and wait until validators adopt it before evaluating, or are you willing to take on the uncertainty of implementation early?Seeing this message, my first thought is: reducing token issuance can improve the odds, but whether it's worth it depends on how much premium the market has already paid for this expectation. I'm not very willing to treat slow variables as short-term catalysts.
NEAR's House of Stake has voted to approve a plan to reduce the maximum annual issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6% over 24 months. However, there is still the Security Council's review and approval, about a 90-day grace period, and validators adopting the protocol upgrade—not an immediate reduction right after the vote.
My judgment is that this is a long-term positive, and the short-term impact is easily overestimated. A decrease in issuance can reduce dilution for holders but does not equal increased demand; phased implementation also gives the market time to digest the expectation. According to my speculation, if the execution is fulfilled and demand keeps pace, the risk-reward structure will be more solid; if the narrative of issuance reduction alone raises expectations, the odds may actually worsen. I will monitor quarterly reports to verify deviations between actual issuance and the plan.$BTC shows an abnormal signal:
Price continues to fall, but spot CVD and futures CVD are rising.
Active buying is entering the market, but sellers keep absorbing the buy orders, so the price cannot rebound for now.
This divergence may indicate a local bottom is forming, but the selling wall above remains heavy.
Having a signal does not mean you can blindly bottom-fish. 👀
$BTC I don't touch high leverage, and when I see this kind of news, I don't rush to get caught up in the market. After holding spot assets for a long time, what I really want to know is: among those lively on-chain concepts, is there now a place where they can truly be implemented?
This time, NYSE has chosen Broadridge to support on-chain shareholder voting. Token holders will be able to participate in voting through wallets, broker interfaces, or ProxyVote. However, the proposed trading venue is still awaiting regulatory approval, so the selection of service providers and official implementation need to be considered separately.
My judgment is that this signals long-term infrastructure development, not a short-term bullish factor to explain price movements. If tokenizing stocks only solves circulation but shareholder rights are not connected, the whole chain is incomplete. Including voting arrangements indicates that construction is beginning to address rights after holding, rather than just focusing on trading.
I also value retaining multiple participation entry points. If users don't have to completely change their habits just to vote, the adoption threshold might be lower—that's my speculation. But listing the entry points doesn't mean the actual experience has passed muster, and regulatory approval remains a hurdle.
As for me, I hold and watch slowly to see if these aspects can be realized. For long-term construction news, there's no need to rush with leverage; even if the direction is right, one might not withstand the volatility. For friends holding long-term, will you consider "whether shareholder rights can be implemented on-chain" as a hard indicator to observe stock tokenization?$DOGE DOGE's exchange rate is plummeting almost to the core like BTC's slow decline, hitting the lowest range in 300 weeks, yet people are still frantically selling off.
But there's a very strange move in the market these days: every time the price dips below 0.076, it is instantly pulled back up, and the more it drops, the less volume there is.
Big holders have been quietly accumulating around 0.08 since last month, forcefully buying in 600 million coins. The old trapped holders refuse to sell at any cost, the market makers can't push the price down, and the shorts are paying interest daily to hold on. The spring is compressed to the limit; let's see how many more days the bears can stubbornly hold on.
#DOGE
$DOGE
👇U.S. midterm election voting day has arrived: Should BTC first look at the results or the expectation gap?
On the U.S. midterm election voting day, the hardest thing for the market to trade is probably not who wins, but how much the results differ from the script everyone bet on in advance.
Before voting, a pricing released by Kalshi showed the probability of the Democrats taking the House at 94% and the Senate at 74%. This was just the trading price at the time, not the votes, and certainly not the final result. But it tells us: the market already has a clear inclination about which party will control both chambers.
If the results are close to expectations, BTC may not necessarily rise all the way just because "uncertainty decreases"; if key seat results deviate from expectations, the market might readjust its judgment on regulation and fiscal policy. But whether it goes up or down cannot be predetermined; it still depends on the reactions of the U.S. stock market, the dollar, and BTC itself.
On the chart, BTC rebounded from around 76,660 but has not yet reclaimed the 77,600 area. My judgment is: treat the pre-election rebound as a repair first, don’t rush to bet on a trend reversal. Only if the hourly close stands above 77,600 and holds on a pullback will the repair have room to continue; if it falls below 76,660, this rebound needs to be reassessed and stop chasing longs for now.
Conversely, if BTC continues to hold above 77,600 without waiting for a pullback, it indicates buying pressure might be stronger than expected, and I would abandon the view that the rebound is weak.
$BTC $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Seeing this, my first reaction is: Does a decrease in stablecoins necessarily mean that everyone has stopped playing? 🤔 CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 pointed out that the total market cap of stablecoins has been declining for more than a month, dropping from $270.3 billion on October 1 to $263.4 billion, with an outflow of $6.9 billion in the past month.
Having been in the circle for only a year, my understanding is that this news serves more as a reminder about the capital absorption capacity than a prediction of price movements. I'm not sure if that's correct. A decrease in stablecoin supply means the reserve of funds readily available for trading is thinning; however, changes in total market cap alone cannot directly tell me how much capital was originally prepared to buy Bitcoin. So, I don't quite agree with treating stablecoin inflows as a necessary condition for a rebound.
I haven't figured out yet how to distinguish between redeeming and leaving the crypto market versus just changing the way funds are parked. I'd like to ask the seniors: besides total market cap, which on-chain data would you look at to judge where this money is going?Palantir's earnings report exceeded expectations, with adjusted earnings per share at 0.44, while Wall Street estimated 0.41. My forward-looking estimate was between 0.43 and 0.46, so this time I hit the mark. Revenue was 2.31 billion, up 96%, which is 6.9% above the upper limit of my own guidance. U.S. commercial revenue was 984 million, up 148%, even higher than Citibank's estimate of 140%. The Q4 revenue guidance is 2.65 billion, and the full-year growth rate was also raised to 91%.
However, the stock price did not rise accordingly. On Monday, it first fell 3.1% along with software stocks, closing at 178.34. At 4:05 PM Eastern Time, the after-hours price briefly touched 187.9, then quickly returned to around 180. The earnings call lasted about twenty minutes before the stock price fell below the close, hitting a low of 170.6. What I am worried about going forward is the newly signed contracts. The total contract value in Q3 was only 6% higher than last year, and U.S. commercial contracts were only up 11%, whereas last quarter these numbers were 49% and 153%. The whisper number of 0.49 was also not reached.
In my forward-looking view, if U.S. commercial growth exceeds 140% and the full-year guidance is raised by more than 10 points, I tend to be bullish. U.S. commercial growth did exceed that, but the full-year guidance was raised from 82% to 91%, an increase of about 9 points, just short.
Alright, these are all my personal opinions and not investment advice. New Jersey lifted the three-year staking ban, but Coinbase's stock price fell back to near a two-year low.📉
On October 30, the state securities bureau revoked the 2023 ban and the $5 million fine.
However, the help page still lists New Jersey as unable to add new staking, the revocation is "without prejudice," so further action is possible.
Morgan Stanley on the same day cut the target price from $258 to $120, citing weakening trading.
I think the lifting of the ban is a slow variable and can't save the current wave of decline.
$COIN Apple released its earnings report again exceeding expectations, with earnings per share at 2.10, while Wall Street estimated 1.99. My forward estimate was between 2.00 and 2.05, so I underestimated this time. Revenue was 114.5 billion, up 12%. iPhone revenue was 57.58 billion, up 17%, higher than Wall Street's estimate of around 56.5 billion. Mac sales rose 24%, Greater China region reached 17.54 billion, up 21%. Five cents of the earnings per share came from tariff refunds.
But the stock price didn't respond positively. On Monday, it first dropped 1.8%, closing at 338.32. After the numbers came out, it initially fell to 332 in after-hours trading, then surged to 341.9 during the conference call. The CFO gave a revenue guidance for the December quarter of 7% to 10% growth, which is actually higher than Wall Street's estimate of 6.7%. However, he then said that rising memory prices and development costs for Siri AI would pressure gross margins. The stock price quickly dropped from around 337 to 326, hitting a low of 323.
In my forward-looking comments, I said that if the December revenue guidance was above 7% and gross margin didn't decline much, I would be wrong. Half of the revenue expectation was met, but not the gross margin part. By 7 a.m. Beijing time, which is 6 p.m. Eastern Time, the stock price in after-hours was 326.8, down 3.4% from Monday's close. On OKX, the AAPL perpetual contract was at 327.9.
Alright, these are all my personal views, not investment advice. Bitcoin is currently under dual pressure from "insufficient macro liquidity expectations to offset micro capital outflows."
Before the Federal Reserve truly crosses the balance sheet expansion threshold (which requires zero interest rates or a deep crisis as a premise), marginal fiscal easing alone is unlikely to serve as a trend catalyst for Bitcoin.
Key indicators to watch include: the pace of TGA balance releases, banks' reserve capacity to absorb fiscal bond issuance, and whether ETF fund flows show a sustained shift. @OKX中文 @OKX星球 $BTC $ZEC $ZEC $BTC dropped continuously during the US stock market session last night, hitting 76,850 at 1 AM Beijing time on the hourly candle, and then touched 76,663 at 8 AM this morning, marking the low point in the past 24 hours. It has now rebounded to around 77,240. Binance spot 24h is down -1.5%.
According to Liqwall data as of 9 AM Beijing time, BTC liquidations in the past 24 hours totaled $84.7 million, with long positions accounting for $64.1 million or 76%. The most concentrated liquidations occurred between 1 AM and 2 AM, totaling $30.9 million.
$ETH also fell back to 2,260, down 1.3% in 24h. MarginPad reports total liquidations across the network in 24 hours at $295 million, with longs accounting for $233 million.
Interestingly, despite the significant drop, Binance BTC contract open interest increased from $7.42 billion to $7.63 billion in 24 hours, with the long-to-short account ratio still at 2.62. The funding rates for both coins are +0.01%.
My view is that the bulls were swept out once but are still adding positions to buy the dip. The leverage hasn't been fully cleaned out. If 77,600 cannot be reclaimed, it is highly likely that the 76,000 area will be tested again.The U.S. midterm elections are on November 3rd. Historically, stocks generally perform poorly before midterm elections. Since 1950, the U.S. stock market has risen in the year following midterm elections. Currently, QQQ short positions are close to $80 billion, and the market is mostly cautious! A market reversal is very likely on November 4th or 5th! The more short positions there are, the greater the subsequent rise in the U.S. stock market will be! My personal view is that the market will stabilize on November 4th and surge on the 5th and 6th!To be honest, I used to easily interpret a decrease in company cash as a negative signal and rushed to set the market direction. Only after stumbling over this kind of judgment pitfall did I understand that without considering the purpose of the funds, the more eye-catching the headline, the more likely it is to mislead me.
As of the week ending November 1, deployable USD cash in the Strategy dropped from $242 million to $133 million, a 45.3% decrease, with preferred stock buybacks exceeding Bitcoin ($BTC) purchase volume. There is also an independent reserve of $4.79 billion intended to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest.
I see this as a change in capital allocation, not directly equivalent to a lack of funds: buybacks occupy capital but do not mean all cash is used to buy coins; the independent reserve has other uses and cannot be counted as ammo ready to buy coins at any time. This reminds me of the atmosphere when news breaks and everyone rushes to bet on direction—ordinary people are most prone to rigidly translate company treasury changes into short-term price moves.
Now I follow two rules: first, clarify the capital scope; second, do not leverage based on a single piece of news. Staying alive is more important than rushing to answer.Price hasn't changed, but the position is gone
$SOXL opening price 81.6, $SKHY opening price 156.9.
Both prices are still at the original level, but the position is gone first.
How is this number calculated: 26 million wasn't lost all at once.
It was seven entries and exits combined, losing a little each time.
The price returned to the starting point, but the principal didn't come back.
Here's the problem: going back and forth in the same direction.
Chasing when it rises, cutting losses when it falls, then chasing again when it rises.
Each round pays a fee and slippage.
After seven rounds, the price is still the same price.
What's missing in the account is 26 million.
He will enter again in the next round, and the price will most likely still be this price.
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化
#$SOXL $SKHY 如果特朗普阵营在中期选举中失利，币圈和未来经济会发生什么变化？ 先明确一个关键背景：2026年美国举行的是中期选举，核心是国会席位的重新分配，并不是特朗普再次竞选总统。因此，我们真正需要关注的是共和党能否继续掌控国会，尤其是如果失去众议院，甚至参众两院都失去多数席位，未来美国政策会发生哪些变化。 先说核心结论：对加密市场而言，最直接的影响是政策预期、监管环境以及相关立法进程。至于币价是否会大幅下跌，美国经济是否会受到冲击，还需要结合选举结果与市场预期之间的差异，以及后续资金流向和政策变化综合判断。 仅凭共和党失去国会多数这一结果，就断言币圈必然暴跌、美国经济必然走弱，显然过于片面。 一、共和党失利，对加密市场有什么影响？ 首先受到影响的，很可能是市场此前建立起来的政策预期。 如果选举前有大量资金押注共和党继续掌控国会，并期待美国加密货币相关政策进一步放宽、立法加速推进，那么一旦选举结果明显低于预期，部分资金就可能重新评估持仓。 此前建立在政策利好预期上的估值溢价，也可能随之收缩。 这种情况下，短期出现获利了结和资金流出并不意外，尤其是那些高度依赖政治支持、监管放松预期以及市场情绪推动的Most people might take this kind of news as positive, but I’m used to hitting the brakes first. On the other hand, returning to normal and becoming stronger are two different things.
Liquid Network stated on X that Bitcoin reserves have been fully restored, and all LBTC has regained 1:1 BTC backing; weeks ago, BTC and LBTC redemption had already resumed. I prefer to see this as credit repair rather than a growth signal.
There are two reasons: 1:1 reserves answer whether there is sufficient backing, but it doesn’t equal the redemption experience—users still need to transfer assets through participating redemption service providers. Another is that users can run nodes to verify the federation reserve proof and also view the public dashboard; if they only read announcements without verification, then these transparency tools are not truly utilized. This is the other side I’m more concerned about.
Do you think restoring 1:1 backing is enough to rebuild trust, or should the redemption experience and ongoing verification also be considered? I welcome those with opposing views to debate.I see a reduction in issuance and usually calculate two things first: how much dilution is reduced and how much incentive must be sacrificed. Tightening supply can improve odds, but it doesn't automatically increase the probability of a price rise.
NEAR governance has approved a plan to lower the issuance cap to 1.6%, with the reduction scheduled over 24 months, which will reduce staking rewards. However, it still requires Security Council approval and validators to adopt the corresponding protocol upgrade before it can officially take effect.
I view this as a conditional positive for $NEAR holders. Governance approval brings the implementation closer than the proposal stage, but it cannot yet be counted as effective. If demand remains stable, reducing dilution helps improve holding expectations; if the reward decrease weakens validators' willingness to participate, then the security cost must be reassessed. For stakers, it's not just about the reduction in issuance but also the net effect after reward shrinkage.
I prefer to wait until both execution and incentives are clear. Facing this issuance reduction, do you value the odds after implementation more, or the odds priced in advance?Brothers, SNDK has dropped to 1096, and even a blockbuster earnings report can't stop the AI theme from fading
$SNDK $1,096
SNDK closed Monday with a sharp drop of 6.59% to 1075.08, with an intraday low of 1067.40; 1096 is basically the level after the post-market rebound. From the June peak of 2354, the pullback has exceeded 54%.
The core of the sell-off is no longer the earnings report. SNDK has fallen more than 35% cumulatively in October, making it the second worst-performing stock in the tech sector. The market is re-pricing whether AI capital expenditure can maintain this pace; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is overall cutting valuations, and SNDK, as a pure NAND play, has fallen the hardest.
The earnings numbers are solid. Q1 revenue was 11.03 billion, a year-over-year surge of 378%, with adjusted EPS of 49.51, both beating expectations. Data center revenue was 4.8 billion, up 61% quarter-over-quarter. The problem lies in growth: this quarter's revenue increased only 23% quarter-over-quarter, compared to 51% last quarter, and the contribution from price increases dropped from two-thirds to about 40%.
Analyst price targets are still sky-high. Among 25 covering analysts, most have buy ratings, with an average target price of $2029, implying about 89% upside. Morgan Stanley maintains a $1750 target, believing cloud demand can offset the decline in the consumer segment.
Technically, 1067 is Monday's intraday low and a key short-term level to watch. Before the November 20 stock split takes effect, the market is still debating whether the 85% gross margin is a ceiling.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The question I struggled with for half a year was answered by the King of Bhutan with a single decree: Is Bitcoin considered money or not? They didn't just issue a statement; they specifically established a new central bank, legally allowing it to hold Bitcoin, and even incorporated it into the national monetary system and reserve assets. In other words, on this country's ledger, BTC is no longer a speculative asset but a reserve item.
What’s most worth pondering about this matter is not the purchase volume, but the sequence. Previously, sovereign states encountering Bitcoin mostly first tacitly permitted it, then piloted it, and only finally discussed compliance. Bhutan directly transformed the most conservative institution—the central bank—into a container capable of holding Bitcoin. The container was built first; whether to fill it and how much to fill it with is the next step.
This is completely different from an ETF. An ETF is a passive channel; money flowing in and out is recorded on the market, visible the next day after selling. Central bank holdings are asset-side allocations, rarely moved for years, and won’t be cut just because of price drops. The psychology of holders is entirely different: one looks at performance rankings, the other at national credit.
For $BTC, this is a narrative-level plus. It won’t push the price up in the short term, but it clears the path for "states can legally hold it." Once this path is cleared, a second country will follow suit. Assets like $ETH still have to wait in line for regulatory classification for now.#AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook
Apple Q4 beat is done - 7.55M vol says YES won. But stock flat +0.06%. Why?
Q4 had first iPhone 18 Pro sales, yet community says component orders cut 15%. Beat last quarter, weak next quarter.
Real focus is outlook, not beat. New CEO rumor adds fear. iPhone 18 was AI iPhone - if demand soft, Apple needs new story.
Lesson: Beat doesn't matter if future is weak.
What did you think guys!!Did SanDisk break a cardinal rule?
It dropped so hard!
The earnings report was explosive, profits surged, yet the stock price plummeted like a kite with a broken string, falling from 1387 all the way down to 1096, cutting a third off in just half a month.
Many people were completely confused—how could the stock crash so much with such strong performance?
Actually, the real blow is hidden in its Japanese joint venture brother, Kioxia.
Kioxia's latest guidance revealed that after a previous surge, NAND flash memory prices might "stay flat" next quarter.
The logic of trading storage stocks has never been about how high the current price is, but about the speed of price increases.
Once growth peaks, even if profits continue, investors will not hesitate to flip the table.
Adding to this macro blow, although the Federal Reserve didn’t raise rates in October, the probability of a rate hike in December has soared above 70%, basically shattering any expectations of a rate cut.
High interest rates act like a pump, squeezing the breath out of these highly valued AI concept stocks.
Goldman Sachs data is even harsher—hedge funds have been frantically selling AI stocks for five consecutive days, wiping out all this year’s profits.
The combination of a tough macro environment and weak fundamentals has created a deep pit.
I entered a long position at 1176.4, now floating at nearly a 70% loss, but honestly, aside from a quick heartbeat when I first checked, I’m not panicking at all.
This drop is a double whammy of sentiment and valuation; a good company isn’t necessarily a good stock immediately.
But in this market, as long as your trump card is still in hand and you haven’t been forcibly kicked off the table, just wait for the panic selling to wash out.
Macro conditions always turn eventually, and the space lost to the drop will be returned sooner or later.
$BTC
$ETH
$SNDK
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The U.S. midterm elections are voting today, and the results will be out tomorrow morning Beijing time. The prediction markets have almost finished voting on behalf of the voters: On Kalshi, the probability of the Democrats taking the Senate rose to 74% on Monday, the highest since the market opened; both platforms for the House of Representatives are between 92% and 94%, and the probability of winning both chambers is also 74%. In polls by The New York Times and Siena, the Democrats lead in seven swing states, including Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and Kalshi gives it 63%.
Last Thursday, Morgan Stanley calculated that during Republican presidential terms, when Congress is divided after midterms, the S&P 500 averages a 23% increase over the following year, while the Democrats winning both chambers only yields 16% for the S&P 500. $QQQ
The variable is the power in Congress. If either chamber changes hands, the Democrats gain subpoena power and are already pursuing donations from the White House banquet hall, with names including Cisco, Salesforce, Kraken, Apple, and Nvidia, each donating $25 million. The purse strings also fall under Congress's control; the "Build Back Better" Act plans to cut $911 billion in Medicaid by 2034, and Molina gets 75% of its premium income from this.
Winning both chambers is already priced in; the surprise would be the Republicans holding the Senate. That roughly 22% probability of divided government, if realized, according to Morgan Stanley's old data, is not bad for the market. If the Democrats win both chambers, Medicaid stocks and companies close to Trump will be hit first. Coinbase was just downgraded by Morgan Stanley to a $120 target price. With the new Congress in place, crypto regulations will likely be renegotiated, so even after voting, there is no relief. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ TRUMP dropped over 10%, but the position in the just-ended hour rebounded. OKX spot price at 09:10 is about $1.587, down about 10.03% in 24 hours. From 08:00 to 09:00, the price fell from $1.602 to $1.588, while the perpetual position value rose from about $15.98 million to $16.15 million.
I am more focused on the positions increasing during the decline. However, the rise in positions does not reveal the long or short direction. The spot trading volume in that hour was about $246,000, only 0.61 times the average of the previous 12 full hours, so this single hour alone cannot indicate increased selling pressure.
If the price continues to fall, positions keep increasing, and spot trading volume also significantly expands, I will reassess whether the decline is accelerating. If positions fall back, this rebound will just be a brief fluctuation.
$TRUMP Apple beat, but fell ~3% after hours. Not buying the dip yet.
Q4 revenue $114.5B, +12%.
EPS $2.10 vs $1.99 expected.
iPhone $57.6B, +17%.
Only 8 days of iPhone 18 Pro in there.
But Dec-quarter margin guide is 45-46%.
It was 47.9%. Memory costs bite.
I think the beat was priced in.
Margin is the new story.
Just watching.
Holds $328? Dip gets bought.
Back above $338? Fear was overdone.
Margin scare, or holiday iPhone rally?
$AAPL $MU
#USStocks #Earnings#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
Brothers, Dallas Fed President Logan dropped a harsh statement last night: "The Fed still needs to raise rates at least twice, totaling 50 basis points." She added sharply that don't expect skipping a meeting to change the endgame; the current policy rate is far from truly restrictive.
She is not fighting alone. The October FOMC vote was 10 to 2, with two officials demanding an immediate rate hike on the spot. Barkin and Mouselim also called for "early and gradual" tightening. CME pricing for a December rate hike has already surged above 70%.
What does this mean? The market game has changed. Now the worry is not "whether to hike in December," but "it won't be over after the hike." The risk-free rate is being pushed higher continuously, putting pressure on overvalued tech stocks and crypto assets alike. $BTC $ETH $SOL ETH and SOL Diverge: One Continues Weakness, the Other Clears Major Overhead Selling Pressure
Inside the market, capital battles are unfolding with completely different scripts. Ethereum has yet to escape its weak quagmire, while Solana has completed a long-suppressed bearish clearing event.
The weak tone of $ETH remains clear. Until it successfully holds above $2300, we have no sufficient reason to conclude the downtrend has ended. The on-chain NUPL indicator is at 0.0073, nearly touching the market breakeven line. Early ICO holders continue to sell and exit, continuously applying selling pressure. Interestingly, whale funds are quietly positioning around the $2200 range, with daily cumulative Ethereum purchases exceeding $100 million. Compared to chasing a brief spike rebound, layering positions at key support levels offers a much more comfortable risk-reward ratio.
$SOL has a bullish factor easily overlooked by retail investors: Nasdaq-listed company SkyAI has liquidated all its SOL holdings, realizing about $223.8 million. The large corporate selling pressure long hanging over SOL has thus been lifted. However, the price is still consolidating near $94. The $92.34 level is the core support baseline for this short-term rebound; if this point breaks, downside risk will increase again.
NEAR, AAVE, and UNI Each Hide Risk Signals
NEAR is currently priced around $3.87, having entered oversold territory on the daily chart, but the overall structure has not issued a clear bottoming signal. This looks more like a brief pause in a downtrend rather than a trend reversal. Short-term support is at $3.79, with resistance at $4.35. A noteworthy on-chain move: a whale closed NEAR long positions, realizing $4.43 million in profits, then positioned short on AAVE and BNB. Smart money has already made its judgment.
The current market state is a choppy bottoming process, not a strong upward push. Although Bitcoin shows initial signs of bottoming, many altcoins are still experiencing capital outflows. Blindly chasing short-term rebounds at this stage risks getting stuck halfway up. A safer approach is to follow whale behavior and wait for prices to reach key support zones before gradually positioning. Next, closely watch nonfarm payroll data and U.S. stock market sentiment; the market’s true reversal signal has yet to arrive.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 $BTC #AMD Earnings Preview: HeliosAI System Commercialization Progress
Hidden Highlights in AMD's Earnings: AI Computing Power Business is Growing Bigger, Can Helios Bring New Profit Surprises?
AMD's data center revenue for Q2 2026 reached $6.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 107%. The company previously forecasted Q3 revenue at about $13 billion, with a variance of $300 million, and a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 56%.
This means the market already has high expectations for this earnings report.
The significance of Helios lies in AMD's attempt to enhance the overall value of its AI business.
But there is a key issue here: scale growth does not equal synchronized profit growth.
AI servers require a large number of advanced chips, memory, network equipment, and cooling systems. After production scales up, supply chain costs, product mix, and delivery efficiency will all impact the final profit.
Therefore, I believe this earnings report should not only be judged by whether revenue exceeds expectations but also by gross margin, data center business performance, and management's outlook for the next quarter.
A positive signal from AMD is that AI infrastructure is gradually moving toward actual deployment, and industry demand continues to expand.
As long as the commercialization process can continue to advance, profit growth has the opportunity to follow revenue growth.
What do investors fear most? It's not that a company temporarily runs slow, but that the market has already priced in the next ten years' achievements into today's stock price. Stay optimistic, but also leave some room for valuation to cool down. $AMD Yesterday, the short position on $ETH really gave me a hard time, but today I finally caught a wave of decline! Earlier, the long hedge on $BTC took a small hit; sensing the rebound was off, I closed it first. After $BTC surged to 78831, it really couldn't hold and dropped all the way back near 76,000! $ETH was quite strong yesterday, touching 2318, but today it fell straight back to around 2250. The short position I held finally saw a pullback! I said yesterday, this market lacks not news, but truly willing funds to chase prices! Now both coins have fallen back below the 4-hour short-term moving average. That previous rebound struggled for a long time but still couldn't break out! Oil prices also show a clear pullback, the US dollar and Treasury yields have weakened somewhat, yet tech stocks remain under pressure, and $BTC and $ETH continue to fall. The US midterm elections start voting tonight; has the market preemptively reduced risk exposure? I think it's possible, but we can't blame all the declines on the elections! I'm still bearish now, holding the $ETH short position, but I don't plan to blindly add at low levels! For $BTC, I'm watching if 76260 can hold; for $ETH, around 2230, with a further target at the previous low of 2172. After enduring so long to reach profits, I can't afford to pay tuition again!Good morning, $BTC is also doing well
Currently still regarded as a minor pullback within an upward structure
Just need to be cautious, as it may enter a longer period of consolidation
See the chart for market analysis, I have already found similar past sentiment for reference and simulation$GPRO
This GPRO candlestick pulled up 10.5% in one hour. Intraday, it touched a high of 1.1284 from 0.9288, currently at 1.0893, about 3% off the peak.
I checked around the news quickly but found no matching updates on the underlying stock, only the price increase. GPRO is the stock token for GoPro; these kinds of markets are naturally thin, so moves like this are mostly driven by market orders.
Looking at the liquidity pool makes it clear. GPRO contracts have a 24-hour trading volume of $1.08 million, while the neighboring XSNDK has $4.8 million. With this depth, throwing in a few tens of thousands of USDT can create a wick like the one above.
The fee rate is -0.0004%, effectively zero. Neither bulls nor bears are willing to pay for positions; this isn’t leverage-driven but caused by someone sweeping the thin order book with market orders.
I’m staying away from this ticket. It’s not bearish sentiment; it’s just hard to get in and out. When it really comes time to exit, the depth for taking over positions might not be enough to avoid slippage. The hype is real, but the money might not be.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC
Wintermute says 76800 is the next key support for Bitcoin. Looking at the chart, this level was just touched twelve hours ago at 76620, then after sweeping it, it bounced back to 77200.
What concerns me is something else. Fidelity Digital Assets moved 1722 BTC into several new wallets, which at the current price amounts to $132 million. When custodians move coins, the usual rule is to interpret it as selling pressure first.
But the market didn’t cooperate. The 24-hour low is 76620, now at 77200, sitting 400 points above support. Contract open interest climbed from 2.61 billion in the morning to 2.629 billion, no decrease. The funding rate is still hanging at the baseline of +0.01%, neither positive nor negative.
If there was going to be a dump, the funding rate would turn negative first, and open interest would drop first; neither has happened. The people moving the coins are either not selling or if they sold, someone else is absorbing it.
I’m holding no shorts; I won’t chase at this level. Below 76800 is where I recognize the real zone; this recent rise and fall has nothing to do with me.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展
Is AMD about to take off? Helios AI commercialization enters a critical phase, watch for three key signals in this earnings report!
At the hottest time in the AI industry, AMD has chosen a route worth watching: not just selling chips, but selling complete computing power systems.
Helios is an important representative of this route.
In my view, the three most important signals to watch in this AMD earnings report are:
First, commercialization delivery. Helios has entered mass production, and next we need to observe actual shipments, customer deployments, and delivery speed. Whether the product can enter customer data centers on time is more important than how impressive it looks at the launch event.
Second, customer demand. The involvement of partners like OpenAI, Meta, and Microsoft opens up a larger commercial imagination space for AMD. Whether future orders can continue to expand will determine Helios's growth potential.
Third, software ecosystem. Whether ROCm can continuously improve the development experience, model adaptation, and operational efficiency directly affects whether customers are willing to use the AMD platform long-term.
AMD's opportunity lies in the continuous growth of AI computing power demand, while large customers also want more supplier choices. As long as product performance, cost, and software experience form a competitive edge, AMD has the chance to gain more market share.
Of course, Nvidia's ecosystem advantage remains formidable, and AMD also needs to prove its strength with actual performance.
$AMD The heatmap colors do not represent the number of longs and shorts, and I think this is the easiest detail to overlook. Many people look at the chart to find out which side has more people; on the contrary, I am more cautious about this kind of intuition.
First, the colors reflect aggregated data, which cannot infer the advantage in the number of people; second, the payment intervals across platforms differ, and fee percentages cannot be directly compared either. My judgment: if the criteria are not aligned, the more intuitive the chart, the easier it is to be misleading. Do you think the heatmap can serve as a substitute indicator for the number of longs and shorts? Opposing opinions are welcome for debate.On one side, the passive channel is still offloading shares, while on the other, Strategy has scooped up 811 BTC into the treasury—about $65.5 million, with an average price of around $80,846, bringing total holdings to 849,327 BTC.
ETF outflows and listed companies exchanging newly issued shares for spot assets are not the same group of players; the misaligned timing is the real signal, so don’t just sum it up as "institutions are all running."
Buying in ≠ bottom confirmation. Source: Company 8-K + media summaries, confidence level moderately high. Do you trust "continuous buying" more, or "buying finished but still needing financing"?
$BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
$BTC $ETH The core of this midterm election is the battle for control of both chambers of Congress, which will directly change the scope for advancing U.S. fiscal, regulatory, and industrial policies, thereby affecting the pricing of major asset classes such as U.S. debt, the dollar, gold, and BTC. The market mainly focuses on three possible outcomes.
✅ Scenario 1: Divided Congress (market baseline expectation)
Each party controls one chamber, making large-scale fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, or tax hikes difficult to pass. Subsequent debt ceiling and budget negotiations are likely to drag on, with little chance for major policy moves.
👉 Market reaction: Expectations for fiscal expansion cool down, pressure on U.S. Treasury yields to rise weakens, benefiting gold; risk assets tend to fluctuate without a clear trend. New crypto regulations are also unlikely to be implemented quickly.
✅ Scenario 2: Republicans control both chambers
Fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, and relaxed industrial regulations are easier to advance, raising expectations for deficit expansion and bringing inflation risks back, leading to a repricing of Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.
👉 Market reaction: U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, gold comes under pressure; relatively favorable for U.S. tech stocks and AI, BTC is likely to follow risk asset volatility in the short term.
📌 Reference price levels
Gold: support at 3900, resistance at 4020
BTC: support at 76000, resistance at 81000
👉 Trading strategy
Elections are expectation-driven events; focus on whether the outcome aligns with prior market forecasts. Avoid heavy positions before results. After results are announced, first observe the direction of U.S. debt and dollar correlations, then wait for market signals to confirm, strictly control position size, and set stop losses…Let me first do a straightforward calculation: if stocks are put on-chain, and trading becomes more convenient but voting remains cumbersome, the practicality will be compromised. The NYSE has chosen Broadridge to support on-chain shareholder voting, allowing token holders to participate via wallets, broker interfaces, or ProxyVote; the proposed trading venue still awaits regulatory approval.
I think this is a positive infrastructure development rather than a reason for speculation. First, multiple access points are expected to lower the operational barriers to voting participation; second, connecting shareholder rights is more useful than just improving trading convenience. But having a voting solution doesn’t mean the trading venue has been approved—these two calculations should not be mixed.
Between stability and risk, I choose stability: first watch the approval progress and actual user experience, and don’t rush to treat new features as mature services. If it were you, would you wait for regulatory approval and service launch before participating, or would you be willing to try wallet voting early after compliance opens up? Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the US stock market dropped 3.3%. I thought Asia could catch a break, but this morning South Korea took over directly: KOSPI opened down 3%, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both falling over 4%—the entire index dragged down by the semiconductor sector.
Some people backstage are still using the argument "memory shortage until 2028, the strongest fundamentals globally" to prepare for bottom-fishing in memory stocks. I don't deny the fundamentals, but what's being hit now is never the fundamentals; it's the financing pipeline that fuels the AI chain. When that pipeline tightens, no matter how strong the story is, valuations have to take a hit first.
The crack has spread from the US to Asia; this is no longer just a sentiment issue in a single market, but a collective loosening among a class of trades. My stance hasn't changed: at this point, being bearish feels more comfortable than bullish. The heroes who catch the falling knife are often the first to have their accounts wrecked.#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ This is not only a political contest deciding control of Congress but also a critical juncture affecting subsequent fiscal, legislative, and crypto industry fate. This election will renew all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, with results directly determining future policy direction and regulatory agenda.
This round of elections sees unprecedented crypto industry investment, aiming to push the CLARITY Act into law and define regulatory boundaries between the CFTC and SEC. Crypto-related political action committees have invested about $206 million, lobbying lawmakers vigorously to secure a friendly regulatory framework.
Two scenarios to distinguish: If Republicans hold both chambers, expectations for crypto legislation advance, benefiting BTC; if Democrats regain one or both chambers, regulatory tightening expectations rise, making bill progress harder and likely suppressing the market.
November brings a cluster of macro data: CPI and nonfarm payrolls released simultaneously, combined with Fed rate expectations, multiple variables resonate. Currently, BTC is trading in a narrow range, with funds waiting and watching for the shoe to drop.
Historically, after three midterm elections, BTC has entered a bottoming phase, though the bottom realization cycle shortens each time. Technically, assuming this round is wave four of correction, after the election settles and bearish factors clear, there is a chance to start wave five upward, with the first target at 90000.
But waves are just projections, not certainties. Election results below expectations or a rebound in US Treasury yields could break this bullish scenario.
Key focus: Congress control results, subsequent statements on the CLARITY Act, US Treasury yields, and ETF fund flows. Here's a strange thing: when the coin price drops, everyone looks for reasons, but the answer lies in a number no one watches—the total market cap of stablecoins. It dropped from 270.3 billion to 263.4 billion in one month, with 6.9 billion USD withdrawn.
In plain language: the casino chips have decreased by a round. With fewer chips but the same number of players at the table, every bet is more likely to flip the table. That's why $BTC rises for two days and falls for three, and every rebound falls short.
What does a bull market look like? It's when new chips are brought in truckloads. Now, chips are being taken out truckload by truckload, and this has been going on for over a month without stopping.
Someone asked if it's time to bottom-fish. I don't know, I only know that when chips decrease, catching the falling knife requires more patience.Historically, after every U.S. midterm election, $BTC has experienced a decline.
And the next midterm election is tomorrow.
Will history repeat itself this time? 👀#Palantir Financial Report Outlook: Can High Growth Support a High Valuation? No matter how good the earnings report is, it can't drive the stock price up; when it rises too high, institutions will cash out and harvest profits.
Have you noticed that whenever there's good news, someone sells off immediately?
Google, Intel, and SanDisk all had revenue growth, yet their stocks still fell. As long as performance doesn't exceed expectations, it's punished directly. The market's appetite was fed too much by previous gains, so even if the earnings meet the target, the stock price may not rise.
It's not that the fundamentals are bad, but expectations are too high, so when good news comes out, everyone takes the opportunity to take profits.
AI and technology are still developing, but risks need to be watched; sentiment in the US stock market has already weakened. High-volatility assets like BTC and ETH are also easily used for this, and altcoins will fall even more sharply.
Rather than looking at earnings data, it's better to watch capital flows.
Now ordinary good news is no longer effective; the market is not speculating on earnings growth but on capital flows. Let's first look at a number that's easy to overlook: the total market cap of stablecoins, which has dropped from $270.3 billion on October 1st to $263.4 billion. In just over a month, $6.9 billion has left this market. This isn't a single-day spike; it's a continuous gentle downward slope.
Why is this more important than the candlestick chart? Because the stablecoin market cap roughly equals the cash available on exchanges. When it rises, it means money is flowing in from outside; when it falls, it means someone has exchanged for fiat and left. Price is the result; stablecoin market cap is closer to the cause.
Analyst CW8900 puts it plainly: bull markets usually come with capital inflows, but now inflows have stopped, and there has been a continuous net outflow for over a month, while $BTC is in a bearish phase. When these two things overlap, the nature changes — it's not high-level oscillation or turnover, but a shrinking capital pool.
The mechanism is also easy to understand. When the pool shrinks, the same buy orders can push prices higher, but the same sell orders create deeper dips. So rebounds in this phase tend to be quick and shallow because there is no new money to take over. A true reversal usually doesn't start with a big bullish candle but with the stablecoin market cap stopping its decline and then rising continuously for several weeks — that's when the money is truly coming back.
One point worth considering: losing $6.9 billion out of a $270 billion pool isn't a large magnitude, but the direction hasn't changed for a month. The destructive power of a trend lies not in magnitude but in persistence. Instead of focusing on daily charts, it's better to check this stablecoin curve weekly to see when $BTC can rise.Be patient with dollar-cost averaging, it's time to go all in.
To be honest, still considering the Nasdaq 100 as the "best global asset" is somewhat path-dependent. The Nasdaq is essentially an AI cluster, with a few tech giants occupying an increasingly large weight in the index. Its valuation already factors in the most optimistic growth expectations for the next few years. AI capital expenditure has entered a crazy burn phase, and if profit realization falls even slightly short of expectations, both valuation and earnings forecasts could be hit hard.
Looking at the A-shares market, the real industrial advantages are becoming clearer: a complete industrial chain, manufacturing scale, engineer dividends, plus continuous upgrades in industries like new energy, robotics, semiconductors, computing power, and high-end manufacturing. Many assets have undergone years of valuation digestion, and market expectations remain relatively low, which actually provides room for a double boost of profit improvement plus valuation re-rating.
The Nasdaq has great companies but is too expensive with overly optimistic expectations; A-shares have increasingly strong industries but valuations have not fully caught up yet. One is overdrawing the future, the other is waiting for revaluation. At this point, I’d rather bet on the revaluation of Chinese assets than take the last baton for the Nasdaq. [Cheer][Cheer][Cheer]BTC is currently trading around $77,000, down 1.4% in 24 hours, struggling near $78,000 trying to recover. Technically, it shows both oversold conditions and divergence. The daily RSI is at 38.97, sellers still dominate, but the 4-hour MACD has formed a golden cross, indicating improving buying momentum, though both lines remain below the zero axis. The first resistance to break above is $78,219; surpassing this level could open space toward $79,485 and $80,508. On the downside, $77,761 and $76,460 are two progressively stronger supports. Looking at a longer timeframe, the 50-week moving average at $75,728 has held for seven consecutive weeks, which is the last evidence that the bull market structure has not yet collapsed. The news is the real driver behind this round of decline. The Binance hack on October 29, involving about $6.3 billion, slammed BTC from above $80,000 down to $76,173, with over $1.5 billion liquidated in the derivatives market. Then on October 30, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $643 million in a single day, the largest since June; BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $233 million, and no product recorded net inflows that day. The Fed's hawkish stance and cooling rate cut expectations have raised risk-free yields, directly increasing the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. The daily close direction at $78,219 is more worth watching than the 4-hour golden cross. The hack is a clear factor, ETFs are withdrawing, and the 50-week moving average is the bulls' last anchor—if it holds, there is still room for oversold recovery; a daily close below $77,761 means $76,460 is the next real test.$ZEC This morning I compared BTC and ZEC side by side: both are falling, but the ways they fall are completely different. One still has people adding in, the other has fewer and fewer. I'll set ETH and SOL aside for now and discuss them after this.
First, look at BTC: around 76811, down 1.91% in one day, position size 53.886 billion, with a 1.52% increase in position size in one day; liquidations of 91.57 million in one day, the highest among the four, yet the position size did not decrease but increased. The liquidated positions were taken over by others, this is called turnover.
Now look at ZEC: around 1136, down 8.02% in one day, more than four times BTC's drop; position size only 2.33 billion, down 3.75% in one day; liquidations of 14.52 million in one day, about one-sixth of BTC's. Not many people were liquidated, people are withdrawing on their own, this is called ebb.
The cost basis on both sides is similar: BTC's capital cost is 0.0109%, ZEC's is 0.0101%, leverage is equally expensive; the divergence is not in cost but in staying or leaving. ETH and SOL are in the middle: ETH down 0.94%, most resistant to the drop, but position size decreased by 0.90%; SOL down 2.66%, position size still increased by 0.62%. The whole network longs vs shorts is 49.11 to 50.89, all four positions are close to the ground in one hour, and the market hasn't decided yet.
My rating is straightforward: if you want to take over, stand on BTC's side, there's still money to catch on the dip; for ZEC, before its daily position turns positive, I treat any rebound as a chance to reduce positions, not a bottom-fishing signal. With this comparison laid out, don't pick the wrong side.Last night I was watching the market until almost midnight, and the screen suddenly went quiet for a moment, then BTC went to test the 77,273 level again. Has this dip really ended? At that moment, I was staring at the candlestick chart, and my heart actually skipped a beat. BTC touched around 77,442 again, down 0.89% in 24 hours, with a high of 78,867 and a low of 77,273. The 4-hour long-short ratio rose from 2.29 to 2.40, with open interest contracts at 2.603 billion USD. The numbers don't look big, but there's a story in the structure: in the past 4 hours, longs were liquidated by 1.92 million USD, while shorts only exploded by 346,000 USD. This is not a simple shakeout, but more like a targeted squeeze, with leveraged longs pushed to the most uncomfortable position. What concerns me more is that after the new low, even 77,601 was not reclaimed. This detail is more important than the drop itself. It shows that the bottom-fishing hands are slowing down, tentative buying is not decisive, and market sentiment is sliding from "rushing to catch the rebound" to "let's wait and see." The fear is not screaming but silent, and this kind of emotion is often more wearing. ETH is unusually quiet. At 2,269, it only dropped 0.04% in 24 hours, with a high of 2,318 and a low of 2,248. Neither up nor down has strength, as if waiting for BTC to give direction. With ETH not moving, altcoins lack a backbone, and risk appetite is hard to truly open up. At this time, funds prefer to hide in certainty rather than bet on volatility. The bullish path is actually clear: after the long liquidation, if BTC can stand firm above 77,601 again, short covering will bring a period of recovery, the m$ZEC $ZEC Update Day 15: Only 3% left to the liquidation line
Yesterday the post still showed an unrealized loss of $390,000, but this morning it has turned into an unrealized loss of $2,350,000. $ZEC has dropped from yesterday's high of $1,284 down to around $1,151 now, a 24-hour drop of about 5.5%.
Based on the position opened on October 20: the cross margin position of 15,000 coins has an unrealized loss of about $990,000, the isolated margin position of 14,800 coins has an unrealized loss of about $1,360,000, totaling an unrealized loss of about $2,350,000. Compared to the peak unrealized profit of $3,550,000 on the 11th, it has retraced about $5,900,000.
More critically, the isolated margin liquidation price is about $1,120, and the current price is less than 3% above it. The last time it approached 6%, the post reached a series high of 22,200; this time it directly hit 3%.
Assuming the position has not changed since opening, actual position changes have not yet been confirmed. The NU7 upgrade is imminent (around November 5), and the position, liquidation, and upgrade lines are converging at the same point.