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The US has already switched to standard time, and the US stock market opening has changed to 22:30 Beijing time, one hour later than before. The release time of macro data has also been postponed accordingly. $BTC $ETH $SNDK On Tuesday, the US midterm elections will take place, with all House seats up for election and one-third of the Senate seats contested. The control of both chambers will directly affect market expectations for fiscal, regulatory, and AI policies. Wednesday is packed with key events. At 21:15 in the evening, the ADP employment data will be released, and the Treasury will also announce quarterly refinancing plans. The market is watching whether the bond issuance scale and long-term bond supply will be adjusted. Earnings reports are also concentrated, with results and guidance from companies like AMD, Qualcomm, and Arm directly influencing tech stock sentiment. The highlight on Friday at 21:30 is the October nonfarm payroll report. Besides new jobs added, attention will be on the unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions to previous data. If the data significantly deviates from expectations, it will directly disrupt the market's judgment on the Fed's future interest rate path. Volatility will not be low this week; manage your positions well and avoid betting on direction before data releases. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The valuation debate of Palantir essentially boils down to whether the commercialization growth rate can sustainably outperform the "expensive" label.
The company is scheduled to release its Q3 earnings after the U.S. market closes on November 2 (around 6 AM Beijing time on November 3). Q2 was already very strong: revenue of $1.935 billion, up 93% year-over-year; U.S. commercial revenue of $764 million, up 149% year-over-year; total commercial revenue of $945 million, up 110% year-over-year; GAAP and adjusted EPS both at $0.41; Rule of 40 reached an impressive 155%. The company guided Q3 revenue between $2.16 billion and $2.164 billion, with full-year revenue around $8.15 billion; street expectations are roughly $2.2 billion in revenue and EPS near $0.41. $PLTR closed at $184.11 on Friday, still some distance from its 52-week high, with widely divergent bullish and bearish target prices—the high growth is already reflected in the numbers, the difference lies in the consensus on whether the "expensive" valuation is justified. $xPLTR rose intraday.
Do you think tonight's earnings are more likely to "exceed growth expectations again and lift valuation," or "open high and close low to realize valuation pressure"? #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 $PLTR $xPLTR An Orbit user shared a screenshot showing over 1200u in xp earnings, a figure more convincing than any promotional slogan🙀 What truly deserves attention is not "how much was earned," but that xp is transforming from points into a redeemable asset certificate—the USDT in the prize pool can be spent directly, meaning holding xp is no longer just about participation but a claim on the prize pool. There is a structural change easily overlooked here: xp can now buy US stocks on-chain, meme coins, and spot gold, and there are even contract trading options. In other words, a single unit of xp is embedded with multiple asset curves, and its value is no longer determined by a single scenario but by the depth of use across the entire ecosystem. When a type of points begins to carry stocks, commodities, and derivatives, it ceases to be mere points and becomes quasi-currency. I believe the market is underestimating this identity transformation. Most people still view xp through the "freebie" lens, focusing on short-term quantity fluctuations, unaware that controlling xp within a certain range can stably secure prize pool distributions—this is a supply discipline, not luck. The volatility logic of mainstream assets like $BTC and $ETH does not apply here; xp's scarcity comes from rule design, not computing power or staking. A negative example illustrates this well: a user’s 400xp $xSNDK position once rose above 1800xp and could have been scaled up accordingly, but a single sharp drop immediately reverted it to the original state😹 During the same period, if it had been $AAPL, the drawdown would not have been so severe. This reveals a second-order effectA whale suddenly took a heavy position in $ZEC, an action quite astonishing!
They bought 3,052 ZEC at once, spending about 3.8 million USD, then opened a 2x leveraged long position of 8,000 ZEC, with a total nominal position value reaching 10.16 million USD.
With both spot and futures positions, it's clear they are betting on the future trend of ZEC. As a veteran privacy coin, this sudden large move by the whale is definitely worth noting.
However, a large purchase does not guarantee the market will rise; the subsequent trend still needs to be observed. When $BTC approaches the rolling low, I pay more attention to the next line of defense rather than rushing to find reasons for a rebound.
Kraken quotes around $77,539, with the rolling 24-hour low around $77,500. This low only indicates the trading range and does not mean a strong support has been established. jdripstar considers the area near $76,000 as an important high-cycle observation point and around $81,600 as resistance that needs to be reclaimed; these are his technical judgments, not indicators I have independently recalculated.
My personal market view is to first watch the loss or gain of the lower boundary: if the hourly close falls below and the rebound fails to recover, I will pause the idea of buying the rebound; only if there is a complete process of probing down, recovering, and retesting to hold, will I reassess the support. Before a true recovery above, I still treat the rebound as a correction, not directly projecting it as a main upward trend.
The current price is still some distance from the lower observation point, so there is no need to rush to pick a market answer. I will control the number of trial-and-error attempts and will not add positions to support a judgment that has not yet been established. If the lower boundary is tested, do you value a quick recovery more, or a close that holds after a retest? This is just for exchanging views and does not constitute investment advice.Don't think the divergence between capital and the market is a bottom signal; this is basically US capital completely pulling the plug and running, combined with miners unable to cover costs and forced to dump, creating a chain trap. Now the on-exchange liquidity is basically dried up, it's all existing funds playing the boiling frog game. Anyone trying to guess the bottom at this critical moment is a pure fool.
Look at $BTC, Bitcoin: domestic US capital has completely stopped supporting it. The day the ETF dumped over 600 million USD is ironclad proof. Even more disgusting are the miner data: October revenue hit an eleven-month high, but revenue per unit of computing power plummeted by 17.5%. The sharp drop in single output means miners' costs have surged in this high-interest environment. To pay electricity bills, they could become the fiercest dumping force at any time.
Look at $ETH, Ethereum: still a hopeless follower that can't get back on track. Without US capital propping up Bitcoin, Ethereum will only fall harder. The ecosystem has no new highlights, no capital support, and it panics at the slightest market weakness. Keep your hands off and don't catch the falling knife.
Look at $XAUT, Gold: it is the only reasonable place in the current macro chaos. Inflation remains sticky, non-farm payroll data is about to disappoint, high interest rate expectations are firmly suppressing risk assets, and both safe-haven funds and central bank buying are hiding in gold. Its certainty is far stronger than in the crypto world.
In summary, this is not a divergence at all; it is a double squeeze caused by US capital retreat and miner selling pressure. Don't catch the market before the non-farm payroll data is released. Hold your hands, endure this clearing wave, and only if you survive will you have the right to pick up chips. #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 The withdrawal wave did not crush Binance, but institutions have taken a wait-and-see stance first.
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Binance saw a net outflow of about $7 billion in the past 24 hours. The withdrawal wave after the hacker incident did not overwhelm the platform. More importantly, most institutional funds remained inactive and did not follow the trend to withdraw.
This is judged as a divergence between bulls and bears, with clear short-term bearish pressure, but panic has not spread. The implications for traders are straightforward: first, the ability to process withdrawal requests normally indicates that spot and stablecoin reserves can hold up in the short term, so chasing rumors to dump assets is likely to backfire; second, the $7 billion net outflow is a real capital migration, some of which will settle on-chain and on other exchanges, leading to a revaluation of the trust premium for centralized platforms.
BNB is under short-term pressure. The key is to watch whether net outflows converge in the coming days and whether large institutional redemptions follow. Institutional inactivity is currently the most important stabilizing signal; if net outflows continue to expand, sector risk appetite will decline accordingly.
Scenario one: net outflows converge, institutions remain inactive, and BNB pressure eases. Scenario two: net outflows expand, large institutional redemptions follow, and BNB faces pressure in sync with $BTC.
Are you more concerned about net outflow convergence or institutional redemptions following up? $ETH has been acting a bit strange these past two days: previously, ETH was the weakest, but the day before yesterday, right after the market had just gone through a round of liquidation, ETH's price actually rose despite funds pulling out.
ETH recovered from 2170 to above 2250, making it the strongest in the market. 2280 was originally a strong resistance, but it has already been broken today.
I'm quite surprised because its spot ETF saw a net outflow of 184 million the day before yesterday, meaning institutions are clearly exiting. On-chain strength combined with ETF weakness—this divergence either means new money is quietly accumulating at the bottom or it's a prelude to a pump-and-dump.
$SOL is still hovering between 93–96, with a weaker recovery than ETH, but on-chain adoption hasn't stopped. I think SOL is fundamentally strong but was oversold; when risk appetite returns, it should lead. For now, neither chasing nor cutting losses.
The reason it’s not rising now is because ETFs are pulling out, treasury funds are trapped, and the 30-day -21.5% damage hasn’t healed yet. RSI is at 29.5, the lowest in the pool, and the price is just 2.4% above the floor.
$OKB currently has no independent momentum and is considered a defensive position.
Yesterday, Mr. Xu posted that over a year ago they implemented automated penetration testing based on large models. When competitors have issues, they talk about security, and their marketing timing is very precise, which the market responds well to.
Today, OKB rose 3%, standing back above the 7-day moving average at 112 and the 20-day moving average at 113.2, reclaiming the position lost last Friday. The uptrend remains, with the next hurdle at the 30-day moving average of 117.4.Before opening a position, don’t rush to ask whether the market will rise.
First, ask yourself three questions:
1. If my judgment is correct, how much can I earn?
2. If my judgment is wrong, how much will I lose?
3. After deducting trading costs, does this trade still have an advantage?
Assuming a trade has a 40% chance of making 300 USDT profit and a 60% chance of losing 100 USDT.
The theoretical expected return is:
40% × 300 − 60% × 100 = 60 USDT.
But this is just a calculation based on assumptions and does not represent actual trading results.
A good trade doesn’t win every time, but calculates profit, risk, and cost clearly before opening a position.The stablecoin leader's earnings report is not about "whether there is growth," but whether profits can keep up after market share declines.
Circle will release its Q3 report and hold a conference call at 8 AM Eastern Time on November 4. In Q2, USDC ended with about $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with revenue plus reserve income around $701 million, net profit of $48 million, adjusted EBITDA of $143 million, diluted EPS of $0.18, and an official market share of about 27%. By the end of October, the circulating supply was roughly between $70 billion and $72.3 billion, accounting for just over 20% of the total stablecoin market. Wall Street estimates Q3 revenue at about $797 million and EPS around $0.40. $CRCL closed at $72.54 on Friday, significantly below the early October high; $xCRCL is also under pressure, as the stablecoin narrative shifts from expansion to realization.
Do you focus more on whether USDC can regain market share, or on profit margins and guidance first? #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ $CRCL $xCRCL The biggest recent impact on the market has to be the midterm elections, which will directly affect the US stock market and
$BTC
trends!
The probability of the Democrats regaining control of both chambers is far ahead, and the market has already priced in this expectation!
The key focus now is whether the Senate's control can be clearly determined by the morning of November 4th. The baseline scenario is the Democrats taking the Senate; the bigger trade on expectation divergence is if the Republicans hold the Senate.
Scenario 1: Democrats take both the House and Senate, currently the highest probability at about 71%.
Note here: a Democratic sweep of Congress mainly benefits clean energy, photovoltaics, and energy storage sectors. For AI infrastructure stocks like MU, SNDK, STX, VRT, and CEG, this mostly means short-term valuation and regulatory sentiment shocks. The AI capital expenditure trend will not end immediately because of one election.
Scenario 2: Democrats take the House, Republicans hold the Senate, current probability about 24%, which I also consider the most favorable outcome for market stability.
Historically, the market tends to like this "neither side can mess with the other" structure. According to Morgan Stanley statistics, under a Republican president with a divided Congress, the S&P 500's average historical gain one year after midterms is about 23%, but this can only be used as historical reference and not directly applied!
Scenario 3: Republicans hold both the House and Senate, probability only about 6%, but this is the most unexpected result with the greatest market impact.
Since the market has heavily priced in a Democratic victory, if Republicans hold both chambers, financials, energy, AI, and crypto sectors may see a rapid catch-up rally.$SNDK SNDK This current scene is quite interesting, with bulls clustering together, but the market has already taken a dive ahead.
The long-short ratio has directly surged above 7.6, meaning about 80% of accounts are on the bullish side, showing a broadly optimistic outlook; however, the price has been hammered down from the high of 1198.9 all the way to around 1159, with all short-term moving averages acting as resistance. The funding rate has mostly stayed in positive territory, occasionally dipping into negative, indicating that bulls were willing to pay interest to hold their positions before, but this wave they can no longer sustain it.
On the news front, institutions have also lowered target prices, adding another blow to an already shaky sentiment. This kind of "whole market is bullish" situation often leads to a concentrated shakeout. It doesn't mean the bulls are necessarily wrong, but when the vast majority are on one side, be cautious of the main players harvesting sentiment.
Whether it can hold depends on whether the support around 1150 holds; if it doesn't, a bunch of chasing long positions will likely be swept away in a wave.
This is a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice $SPCX Why has Rocket been continuously falling?
Essentially, it is now just an election gamble ticket. Musk is fully backing Trump, and Trump has also stated he will protect Musk from Democratic investigations.
Conversely, if the Republicans lose this election and the Democrats take power, Musk will become a key target. Subsequently, a series of investigations may be launched: Tesla subsidies, SpaceX government contracts, qualification compliance, all will be dug up and re-examined 💥
Capital is very smart, fleeing early to avoid risk. The market highs keep moving lower, rebounds lack volume, and currently no buyers are willing to take over.
The best strategy now is to wait and see, wait for the election results. Consider going long once positive news is realized; if the results are below expectations, there is still room for further decline!Seeing that some listed companies keep buying Bitcoin, I'm quite curious to dig into their accounts. The announcements of coin purchases look lively, but buying with spare cash versus borrowed money creates very different pressures during holding. Just looking at the buying actions doesn't calculate the long-term expectations.
I don't plan to speed up my own regular investments, and the company's financing channels aren't available for me to use. Rather than focusing on how much they buy next time, I want to hear the management talk about: if Bitcoin stays sideways for a long time, how do they plan to bear the cost of this money?On the first day of BNB withdrawals, 3.64 billion funds moved significantly, but the winners were not exchanges, rather cold wallets. OKX and Hyperliquid only got scraps, with the remaining 3 billion users choosing to "self-custody," a trust crisis more fatal than price drops.
BNB is currently stuck at the 200-day moving average between 690-700, with resistance zones at 730-760 above. On-chain narratives are weak, valuation is propped up by capital operations, the short-term shadow of hackers remains, and the 700 level could be breached at any time.
HYPE rode a wave of hype, but don’t take it seriously. It’s more like an emotional beneficiary; fundamentals still depend on whether Hyperliquid can enter the compliant US stock market—Druckenmiller’s investment in TradeXYZ is the real positive news.
OKB is stable, pulling back to the 7-day and 20-day moving averages through subsidies, standing back at 112-113, with the next target at the 30-day moving average of 117.4. It’s the strongest in the CeFi sector, but don’t chase highs; defense levels are the real skill.$OKB #AMDQ3HeliosRevenue USDT – TRADE SETUP
Direction: SHORT BIAS
Entry: $111.94
Target 1: $111.00
Target 2: $110.00
Target 3: $108.50
Stop Loss: $113.50
Market Insight: OKB is facing selling pressure. Monitor resistance and market volume.Seeing this message, my first reaction was: this feels familiar from the last round. Once crypto is put into the narrative of "bypassing traditional financial restrictions," some in the circle feel that its value is being recognized, but I tend to think that those doing legitimate business might face an additional barrier.
This time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu proposed using cryptocurrency to circumvent potential bank sanctions, which the central bank quickly opposed. The CEOs of Addressable and Orbs also warned that such statements could invite extra scrutiny from overseas exchanges and banks, damaging the local Web3 ecosystem's reputation. This refers to potential sanctions and should not be directly interpreted as sanctions already being implemented.
My judgment is that this is somewhat negative for the local ecosystem, not a benefit of "more crypto adoption." Unlike the previous round's pure debate on decentralization, this time the industry has put forward specific institutional demands: regulatory sandboxes, licenses aligned with MiCA and FATF travel rules, and access to banking services. For the industry to move forward, it depends on business continuity, not louder slogans.
If such statements really bring extra scrutiny, then legitimate teams might also bear higher compliance costs, which is my concern. Viewed in the cycle, I prefer to see this as a stress test for industry implementation rather than a new demand. I will next watch for substantive progress on banking access and regulatory frameworks, not political statements as adoption rates.The first batch of active ETFs has started building positions and is expected to be listed as early as the end of the month
Just now, someone shared news in the group, and the group members were discussing it quite enthusiastically. The first batch of 18 active ETFs raised over 34.2 billion, and those moving quickly have already started building positions.
The progress of these off-exchange active products is indeed quite fast, clearly aiming to attract long-term settled funds, with a very clear overall layout strategy.
At the current pace, it is expected that they can be listed on the exchange as early as the end of this month. At that time, all investors will be able to trade, and various types of medium- and long-term funds will have a new formal channel.
Looking at the market, $ETH is currently at 2,287.21 USDT. Nearby, $BTC is trading flat, while $ZEC is slightly bullish.
Just take a quick look at these new off-exchange developments. Everyone should manage their position sizes well, hold onto their chips steadily, and definitely avoid reckless moves. ethereum:0x249130f5e2dd4cf278180c0df8273f3592ad1247 will fully replay the early impact Bitcoin had on miners.
The first subsidy was exactly the key that created today's Bitcoin.
Miners chase rewards. Hashrate grows accordingly. Security is locked in.
Now, the first subsidy is shrinking.
SpiderPool, F2Pool, AntPool, ViaBTC, and Luxor have already started mining ethereum:0x249130f5e2dd4cf278180c0df8273f3592ad1247 as a second subsidy.
The same block.
The same machines.
Extra pay.
No protocol changes needed.
History is repeating itself.
The energy math has begun to shift.
#比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足
#比特币 Binance's over 6 billion yuan hole didn't break through $BTC; 78,000 and above is considered sealed, but the ETF saw a $643 million outflow on Friday, the largest single-day outflow since June. The price is holding, but money is withdrawing, and the panic index is only 37[reference:1]. On the $ETH side, some are quietly buying; the spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $185 million yesterday, with BlackRock's ETHA alone taking in $151 million. The price is hovering around 2270, and some started picking up when the ETF was withdrawing.
The A-shares market is doing its own thing today; the ChiNext Index closed up 1.87%, with a turnover of 1.79 trillion yuan, increasing by over 100 billion. AI video and media sectors hit multiple daily limit-ups, Mango Excellent Media was locked at the limit, securities firms Guojin and Pacific Securities also hit the limit, and the liquor sector followed to boost the market, with over 130 stocks hitting the daily limit.
On the US stock side, last Friday the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index just took a 7.2% hit, Intel crashed 28% in one day, $NVDA dropped over 4%, and pre-market futures tonight are trying to recover. S&P and Nasdaq futures rose at least 0.4%, but whether they can fully recover remains to be seen.$BTC is stuck below 78000 again, with the 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages all pressing down on it. What kind of stabilization is this pretending to be? $ETH is even worse, with funding rates turning negative and open interest dropping 3.47% in 24 hours, long positions liquidated for $32.5 billion.
ETH crashes first, BTC will follow sooner or later. This is a fake stabilization, not a pullback. BTC funding rate is still positive but not extreme, bulls are holding on hard; ETH shorts are secretly adding positions, retail investors are getting squeezed painfully.
Don’t bottom-fish, wait for the direction. Last time I bottom-fished ETH on a funding rate divergence, I got buried badly. This time I’m not catching a falling knife.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #加密行业协同守护资产安全 BITCOIN HOLDS 78,000 USD AHEAD OF US MIDTERMS: IMPACT ON BTC AND ZEC
BTC stabilized near 78,000 USD as liquidity held steady before US midterm election results. Large caps diverged, led by ZEC climbing 3% to 1,280 USD, ETH reclaiming 2,300 USD, and BNB at 713 USD. The incoming vote determines the regulatory path of the CLARITY Act governing US crypto market oversight.
DYOR.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Nhà phát hành stablecoin như Tether đã đóng băng hơn 1,567 triệu USD USDT $BTC MicroStrategy bought another 811 coins, but this time the money wasn't used for trading crypto
Just saw the news, Strategy bought 811 bitcoins last week, now holding a total of 849,327 coins. Many people saw this and started shouting bullish.
To be honest, Beichen says, these 811 coins are only worth $63 million, and with 849,000 coins in hand, the weekly increase is less than one-thousandth.
More importantly, what did they do this time: sold 1.18 million shares of MSTR stock, raised $164 million, then spent $208 million to repurchase preferred shares, and finally only got 811 bitcoins. In other words, more than half of the money raised through financing was not used to buy coins but to repurchase preferred shares.
This is not a signal to increase holdings, but a signal to shrink. Previously, MicroStrategy bought thousands to tens of thousands of coins per week, now only 811 coins, and they have to sell stocks to raise money and repurchase preferred shares to stabilize the stock price — the company itself knows this is not the time to be aggressive.
Looking at the market again. Bitcoin fell from 81,000 to 76,300, now at 77,700, rebounded for three days but hasn't stood back above 78,800. The long-short ratio is 2.1, retail investors are still mostly bullish.
Beichen's idea: don't chase longs at 77,700. Light short positions can be taken on a rebound to 78,500-78,800, with a target first at 77,000, and if broken, look at 76,300. When it stands above 80,000, then talk about bulls again
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Gold at $3900, do you still dare to bottom-fish?
Hook (50 words):
A 3.5% plunge on Friday hit an 8-month low. Do you think safe-haven assets failed? Wrong. Gold isn’t failing as a safe haven; it’s being used to cover positions. Today’s rebound to 3900—is it a flight for safety or a buy-in?
First, the surface: Friday’s big bearish candle smashed through the 4000 and 3975 levels, bottoming at 3870. On Monday, oil prices crashed 3%, easing inflation worries, so gold caught a breather, rebounding to 3900-3910.
Look at the candlestick: RSI at 27-32, oversold. Some in the group chat say, “Gold’s bottomed, buy!”
Bro, oversold doesn’t mean bottomed. I heard that in 2022 and in 2013 too.
First thing: Why did gold crash? Not because safe-haven failed, but due to a liquidity crisis.
Tech stocks plunged Friday, leveraged funds got margin calls, selling whatever they could. Gold has the best liquidity, so it got hit first.
This is called "safe-haven assets not acting safe in a real crisis"—because it becomes an ATM.
You buy gold to hedge risk, but when risk hits, it falls harder than stocks.
Heartbreaking? That’s the market’s dark humor.
Second thing: The Fed has no intention to save you.
October meeting held rates at 3.75%-4.00%, with two votes supporting a hike. Q3 GDP 3.4%, core PCE 3.1%, CPI high.
Market prices a 73-75% chance of a rate hike in December.
In plain terms: Money in the bank earns interest, why buy non-yielding gold?
10-year real yield at 2.90%, dollar index 101.5. These two numbers won’t drop, so gold can’t rally.
Don’t expect a "rate cut to save gold" anytime soon.
Third thing: Technically, two words—bearish.
Price far below 20-day MA 4090, 50-day MA 4270, 200-day MA. Friday’s big bearish candle broke support; 4-hour chart shows lower highs and lower lows.
Monday’s rebound near 3920 was capped—that level turned from support to resistance.
Mainstream TradingView view: sell the rally.
No daily close above 3980-4000, no reversal talk.
You’re not bottom-fishing; you’re halfway up the mountain.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
Bulls:
- RSI oversold, short-term rebound demand
- Oil price drop eases inflation, slight positive
- Central banks’ long-term gold buying demand remains
- Support at 3870-3880
Bears:
- Fed hawkish, 75% chance of December hike
- Real yield 2.90%, high opportunity cost holding gold
- Complete bearish technical structure, all MAs suppressing
- This week’s ISM, nonfarm payrolls, midterms will increase volatility
- Just broke support Friday, overhead trapped positions
Key levels:
Resistance above: 3920 → 3950-3960 → 3980-4000 (watershed for bias reversal)
Support below: 3880-3870 → 3820-3800
Strategy:
Primary: prioritize shorting the rebound.
Wait for rebound to 3920-3950, then short lightly on signs of stagnation. Stop loss above 3970-3980, targets 3880 → 3870 → 3820-3800.
Long on oversold? Only short-term.
If 3870-3880 stabilizes (long lower shadow + volume surge bullish candle), try light long positions with stop loss below 3860, targets 3920 → 3950. Cut decisively at resistance, don’t get attached or fantasize.
When you bought gold, you thought it was a "hero in chaotic times."
But when chaos came, it was the first sold for cash.
$BTC $ETH $XAU I've always been puzzled: Aren't stablecoins supposed to be inherently tied to the US dollar? When we transfer funds back and forth, we mostly use $USDT and $USDC, as if this has nothing to do with other currencies.
Then Zhao Changpeng came out and said that more countries will realize that issuing stablecoins in their own currency can boost demand for their currency and also help increase demand for government bonds. The US dollar has already taken a big lead.
To translate: stablecoins are not just tools for transfers, but also channels to help governments sell bonds. The US dollar got a head start on this path, and other countries are now trying to catch up.
I'm curious, when a bunch of local currency stablecoins really come out, will we have more choices, or just more exchange rates to keep track of?$HYPE started accumulating from 91 until now,
so it's basically starting to be profitable. To be honest,
since the large-scale unlocking last month, I've been short.
No matter how it fluctuates in between,
I believe it will eventually decline.
There are still about 78% of the tokens not unlocked.
You see, that mainstream coin only has about 20% circulating.
So it's only possible to pump it now,
after the market has more coins, it won't be possible to pump it up.
$CAP is the same, although its market cap is much lower.
But only about 15% is circulating,
once the market circulation and tokens increase, it will be hard to control the price.
It's the usual tactic, pumping hard while tokens are concentrated now.
What happens after, I think about it.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ The weakest link has never been that no one makes money, but that the portion of people who do make money think the hype will continue indefinitely. When you see "1200u in hand," is it really a reward payout, or is someone setting the price for the people behind? Let me zoom in a bit. On Orbit, someone showed off rewards predicted using xp, exceeding 1200u; the girl who posted had only 400xp at the time, casually placed a buy order for $xSNDK, and after a few days without checking, she surprisingly squeezed into the 25u tier prize pool, ranking around 800. It sounds like she found candy, but she also admitted the most frustrating part was chasing $SNDK at 1300 with 1800xp, only to get precisely stung, making her stomach hurt 😹. This sense of disparity is crucial. On the surface, it looks like "xp can also be exchanged for money," but the real underpinning is divided into two layers: one is the ranking and distribution in the prize pool, the other is the price rhythm of the underlying asset itself. The former depends on participation and rules, the latter on volatility and position size. Many people see others receiving payouts and assume this gameplay is stable, but reward payouts and trading profits are fundamentally different things. The prize pool is a probability game; chasing orders is a risk game; mixing them together easily leads to getting carried away. Now looking at the cross-market linkage layer. The sentiment around assets like $SNDK is on the same line as SanDisk’s earnings beating expectations and the stock price dropping over 13% after announcing a stock split: good news is priced in early, and when realized, it becomes a selling point. This transmission first hits risk appetite, then passes into the rhythm of altcoin and thematic trading. BTC,Zhao Changpeng dropped a line: More countries will realize that issuing local currency stablecoins can increase demand for their own currency, thereby boosting demand for government bonds. The US dollar has already taken a significant lead in this regard. It sounds like an industry call, but it's actually a straightforward mechanism breakdown.
The chain he describes is: a country issuing a local currency stablecoin is equivalent to creating an always-online circulation scenario for its own currency. Foreigners who want to hold it must first exchange for the local currency; with demand for the local currency, the buyer base for government bonds also expands. Here, stablecoins are not payment tools but distribution channels for sovereign debt.
This explains why the US dollar leads. $USDT and $USDC have pushed the dollar onto every chain, every exchange, and every cross-border scenario, thus adding a batch of buyers for US Treasury bonds who only care about liquidity, not interest rates. Other countries have noticed this but lack such a network.
Therefore, it is highly likely that a batch of local currency stablecoins will emerge later: Hong Kong dollar, dirham, real, etc., initially operating within their own national regulatory frameworks before discussing cross-border use. But the pace won't be fast; the core issue is not technology but the willingness to give up some transparency in currency issuance.
For traders, this news does not constitute a directional signal in the short term. What’s worth following is the infrastructure layer—public chain assets like $BNB that support stablecoin issuance and settlement will be the first to feel changes in on-chain stablecoin supply.
One question remains: if every country issues local currency stablecoins, will competition among stablecoins turn into a contest over who has lower inflation and whose debt is more favored?#Is it a bull market pullback or a reversal crash?
AI stocks, are they really about to collapse? Or is the next bull market brewing?
In October, the Nasdaq 100 index lost over $2.5 trillion in market value.
The market is starting to question:
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta have invested hundreds of billions building AI infrastructure, when will it truly turn into profit?
An interesting phenomenon is happening in the US stock market now:
* AI investment is still ongoing.
* Tech giants' capital expenditures are increasing.
* Investors are beginning to demand real profits, not just grand stories.
* The market's tolerance for AI valuations is declining.
I believe the long-term trend of the AI industry hasn't changed, but AI stocks don't mean they will always rise.
What really matters next is not who tells the best AI story, but who can turn AI into cash flow.
Which category do you think the current AI sector belongs to?
A. AI bubble is about to burst
B. Normal pullback, bull market continues
C. Industry is fine, but valuations are too high
#USStocks #AI #Nasdaq #NVDA #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
My US stock pre-market diary: Oil prices first took a hit, is tech catching a breath?
Pre-market futures are all green, Nasdaq futures up 0.56%, S&P up 0.32%, Dow up 0.39%.
But the real big news isn't in the stock indexes, it's in crude oil: WTI directly fell below 100, with a single-day drop of over 4%. Iran's "seven-day plan" has been streamlined to two days and can be implemented; once the diplomatic channel opens, oil prices first suppressed last week's inflation anxiety a bit.
Where is the money coming back from, and where is it going?
Semiconductors are the vanguard of the rebound. SOXL is up 3.44% pre-market, with a volume of 321 million, ranking first on the board; Micron up 1.41%, SK Hynix up 3.58%, SanDisk up 1.30%, Nvidia at 206.45 up 0.89%.
But note, this is an oversold rebound after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.2% last week and SOXL dropped 24% in a single day, not a trend reversal. Nasdaq futures only rose 0.56%, indicating that funds have not fully returned to tech, but are selectively rebounding in the most beaten-down storage and semiconductor stocks.
Mergers and acquisitions are in conflict.
MRVL pre-market once fell 1.33% to 193.78, LITE even more, down 3.06% to 815. It's a full stock acquisition; buyers dilute, sellers pre-collect premiums, and the pre-market movement is "settle accounts first, then talk." MRVL later pulled back some, but the merger arbitrage pressure remains, so don't rush to take sides.
The oil price drop is an assist, the semiconductor rebound is self-rescue, but market doubts about AI spending have not dissipated. [Intel Drops 28.6% in One Day: Opportunity or Trap According to Buffett's Framework?]
First, let's look at the facts. Intel released its Q3 earnings on October 29: revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21% year-over-year; data center and AI business accounted for $7.3 billion, up 78%. However, the Q4 revenue guidance is only $15–16 billion, below the market expectation of $17.1 billion compiled by LSEG. On October 30, the stock closed at $65.76, down 28.58% in one day. CNBC called it the worst day since the 1970s.
1. Circle of Competence: What Intel does is easy to understand; what's hard to grasp is who will win the process technology race in 10 years. Buffett said in his 1999 letter that the long-term economic characteristics of rapidly changing industries are far beyond their circle of competence.
2. Moat: The x86 ecosystem and demand for data center CPUs still exist. But Jefferies believes Intel will continue to lose market share next year, and its foundry business posted an operating loss of $1.85 billion in Q3. The moat is still being repaired, not widened.
3. Owner Earnings: The full-year capital expenditure plan is about $20 billion, far exceeding the $8.9 billion depreciation in the first nine months. According to Reuters, the company expects no positive cash flow this year. A rhetorical question from the 2000 letter: You can't expect the Tooth Fairy to pay for capital expenditures, right?
Conclusion: Avoid. The reasons are the rapid industry changes, negative full-year cash flow, continuous dilution of shareholders through new issuance, and lack of a margin of safety. $SOL | SHORT SETUP
Solana is struggling near $94.17. Weak price action below $94.50 keeps sellers in control. A confirmed breakdown could extend the correction.
Entry: 94.10–94.30
TP1: 93.60
TP2: 93.00
SL: 94.75
Wait for confirmation before entry. Trade with proper risk management.#AMDQ3HeliosRevenue $SNDK SanDisk is now heavily suppressed at the high point, the selling pressure from the expected cooling of the storage sector cycle continues to release, and the contract follows the A-share market to keep falling, with weak rebounds.
Kioxia has lowered its guidance, and the market is starting to worry that the flash memory price increase cycle has peaked. The storage sector valuation is cutting expectations, and funds are cashing in profits from the previous surge.
Strategy: short when the rebound reaches the resistance zone; if it doesn't hold above 1199, the bearish structure remains unchanged.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The backlash of consensus expectations: when the vast majority are betting on a rebound, liquidity exhaustion becomes the catalyst for a sharp drop.
Brothers, BTC has dropped to around 77,600. The game logic behind this market is far more brutal than it appears on the surface.
Look at an extremely extreme data point for $BTC: long positions account for 97%. Many think that strength lies in numbers, but in trading markets, this is called the "consensus expectation trap." When almost all retail investors are stubbornly holding or bottom-fishing, it means the potential buying power in the market has already dried up. Without new funds to push prices higher, what remains is longs trampling each other and ruthless harvesting by the whales.
From the trend structure perspective, the daily chart has clearly broken downwards, with the moving average system showing a perfect bearish alignment. The candlesticks can’t even produce a decent rebound, sliding completely along the 5-day moving average. This is not a shakeout; it’s a double whammy of macro liquidity contraction and micro sentiment collapse.
Looking at the order book details, there are layers of sell orders stacked above 77,674.5, indicating very strong resistance above. Meanwhile, the 20+ buy orders at 77,674.4 below are not there to support the price but are the main force creating the illusion for retail investors that "the price won’t fall further," luring more people to catch the falling knife.
Those who follow the trend prosper; those who go against it perish. The short position I placed at the high of 83,436.2 has been held all the way down to 77,675.8. The 20.71% profit is not just a gift of luck but a realization of trend awareness.
$ETH $SOL #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The midterm elections start voting tomorrow. Bitcoin has been stuck at the bottom 13–71 days after the election in the past three cycles, and historically, the US stock market has also performed very well during the same period.
Kalshi prediction market shows:
The probability of the Democrats taking the House is 94%, and taking the Senate is 71%, which will directly affect the speed of crypto legislation progress!
Especially worth noting is the CLARITY Act, which involves the division of regulatory authority over digital assets between the SEC and CFTC.
In the short term, it may not be very favorable for the crypto community, as it will be influenced by the Democrats, increasing the difficulty of advancing the bill (not necessarily) $BTC SANDISK’S STRONG RESULTS FAIL TO STOP THE SELLOFF
SanDisk reported 378% year-over-year Q1 revenue growth and issued Q2 guidance above expectations. It also announced an eight-for-one stock split, with split-adjusted trading expected to begin November 20.
Yet shares fell 13.47% on October 30 after a massive year-to-date rally.
The reaction raises a bigger question: has the memory-sector growth story already been priced in?
#SanDiskEarningsSelloff #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook
#USOctJobsReportInFocus is #1 on Orbit this afternoon.
NFP softer than expected, unemployment ticking up, wages cooling — classic Fed pivot setup. Market pricing 65% HOLD for Dec FOMC, but risk-off near-term as liquidity rotates cautious.
My outlook: Near-term volatility spike, then risk assets catch bid if inflation keeps cooling. BTC + crypto most sensitive.
Not advice. Data-driven view.
#USOctJobsReportInFocus #NFP #Fed #FOMC #BTC #OKXOrbit #MacroMacro Background: Fed’s “Slow Knife,” Nonfarm Payrolls Are the Next Switch
Three Fed officials collectively hawkish: Logan directly stated "at least two more 25bp rate hikes," Balkin and Musalem echoed, advocating a "gradual approach." This is not an instant crash-type bearish signal, but a "slow knife" of prolonged high rates and rising leverage funding costs, which is more likely to produce a market with repeated oscillations and back-and-forth long-short harvesting.
Further tightening in December seems set in stone, and Wash’s press conference was also described as "quite hawkish." The next key point is the November 6 nonfarm payroll data—if employment is strong, rate hike expectations will be reignited, and Bitcoin may be the first to come under pressure; only if employment weakens significantly can rate pressure be alleviated.
A reverse logic worth noting: BMO Capital Markets pointed out that the sell-off in AI stocks may help the Fed curb inflation—slowing data center construction can ease resource competition and inflation pressure, thereby keeping rates at a lower level. If this effect materializes, returns on bonds and cash will decrease, and Bitcoin’s relative appeal will actually increase. But this will take weeks to reflect in yields, while the short-term impact of declining risk appetite is immediate. $BTC $ETH $SOL #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $BTC The largest hack in history ($6.3 billion). Over the past 5 days, I monitored on-chain data for 48 hours and noticed an unusual detail. Here's the conclusion first: this is not a panic bottom, but it's also not a collapse; it's a "big relocation." Look at three numbers: 1. Withdrawals resumed on Saturday, with a net outflow of $2.51 billion in one day. But 58% of that was stablecoins (USDT $1.08 billion + USDC $385 million), and BTC only accounted for 36%. To translate: what people withdrew was not a "panic sell-off," but "moving money back into their own pockets." The majority of stablecoin outflows = people are reducing risk, not betting on direction. 2. BTC current price is above 78,000, which is more than 2% higher than last Friday's low of 76,400. The Fear & Greed Index is 34, still in the fear zone, but it has climbed up from 30. 3. The most interesting: Binance BTC perpetual funding rate annualized at 10.95% — longs are paying to enter again. Of the $1.57 billion positions liquidated last week, 70% were longs. After one round of liquidation, more people are lining up to go long. My observations (not investment advice): Holding above 78,000, expect a rebound to 80,000–80,500 (last week's breakdown point). If it falls below 76,400, look down to around 74,000. Tomorrow is the US midterm election; the volatility window is within these two days. Do you think this is the "end of the shakeout" or a "downtrend continuation"? Make a bet, and I'll check the answer tomorrow. $BTC $BTC US stock pre-market, the three major futures indices slightly rose, with Nasdaq futures relatively stronger. The semiconductor and memory sectors saw a recovery rebound, with SK Hynix, Micron, and TSMC leading gains, and Nvidia warming up simultaneously. The AI sector, previously suppressed by negative sentiment due to Anthropic's financing rating, has somewhat eased.
Last week, Amazon and Intel's earnings misses triggered a collective sell-off in tech stocks. Tonight is an emotional recovery after overselling, not a trend reversal. US Treasury yields remain high, and the market still worries that AI computing power capital expenditure has a long return cycle, so valuation pressure is not fully relieved.
In market linkage, BTC is under pressure and fluctuating around 77450. The tech rebound in US stocks provides mild support to the crypto market, but incremental funds are insufficient, so the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. Focus on whether Nasdaq can hold after the open; if it weakens again, BTC is likely to retest support at 76260.
$ETH "INIT has restarted, XLM is about to vote: Upgrades are not just slogans"
Recently, the market has been shaken up by security incidents, and I am more interested in seeing how projects fulfill their technical commitments. Today, I pick two chains with completely different paths: one is fixing an incident, the other is preparing for an upgrade.
First, look at INIT. On October 23, Initia suspended its mainnet and Rollup due to a MoveVM vulnerability. The official update on November 2 stated that the network is back online, related asset support has been restored, but cross-chain bridges and exchange transfers still need to be observed and gradually reopened, with some cross-chain withdrawals set to a 24-hour waiting period. Restarting is progress but does not mean zero risk. I will monitor cross-chain recovery, DEX liquidity, and post-incident investigations, especially cautioning against mistaking "chain producing blocks" for "funds freely moving in and out."
Next, look at XLM. Stellar’s Bell protocol 30 plans a testnet vote on November 3 (UTC) and a mainnet vote on the 23rd. It involves new contract addresses, contract verification with quantum-resistant signatures, and millisecond-level ledger timing. Note, the latter two do not mean the mainnet is quantum-resistant now or suddenly speeding up to millisecond levels. I am more concerned about node voting results, wallet and exchange SDK adaptation, and whether compatibility issues arise after the upgrade.
Putting these two together is quite interesting: INIT needs to regain trust, XLM needs to prove the upgrade can be smoothly implemented. Technical narratives can be lively, but the hard truth is users being able to use the network normally. Would you rather focus on a project under repair or a well-established public chain steadily upgrading?
#INIT #XLM Not investment advice Price is moving within the $76,500–$80,000 range. The latest hourly closes of $77,880, $77,818, and $78,341 suggest buyers are attempting a recovery. However, recent volatility shows that selling pressure has not completely disappeared. The November 1 daily candle closed green, offering some short-term encouragement, but $80,000 remains the key resistance to watch. My current position: • BTC holdings: 0.1268 BTC • Average entry: $80,023 • Unrealized loss: approximately 2.4% • Available cash: 646It has dropped so much, and the friends in the group have been discussing it very actively these days, constantly asking if it's time to buy the dip?🤔️
The key bottom signal, ETF funds, have not yet shown continuous net inflows. To see real money continuously entering, it won't be a market takeoff from just a one- or two-day rebound. 🔥Is Trump going to lose? Midterm election countdown! 70% odds settled, will Bitcoin and tech stocks be repriced?
Latest prediction market data shows the Democrats have pushed the probability of sweeping Congress to 70%, and Trump's Republican Party is likely to lose the initiative.
Because midterm elections have always been the president's "midterm exam." Nearly two years into Trump's administration, the economy, inflation, and policy controversies have all become reasons for Americans to settle accounts.
To be honest, Trump was also behind in the polls in his previous two elections, but when the actual results came out, he miraculously turned things around. Can he create another miracle this time? It seems less likely at the moment.
The market is currently pricing in a Democratic sweep as the base case. For the market, Democrats taking both chambers means a significant increase in checks and balances. Trump's subsequent tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff increases will be constrained, making policy implementation more difficult.
Actually, this is not surprising. As shown in the chart, before and after the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, the Nasdaq hit its lowest points, with significant pullbacks. This time looks no different, with a sharp correction underway.
I've actually discussed this multiple times this year, calling it the midterm election curse. The market tends to pull back as the midterms approach. I'm sure everyone remembers this—did anyone manage to sell at the top?
And you know what? According to historical data, although the market pulls back and creates a big dip during each midterm, these are actually very good opportunities to re-enter. Prices then start to gradually rise afterward, and Bitcoin is no exception. Everyone, remember to seize the opportunity~Bitcoin is gradually recovering after touching a low of $76,314 on October 30. By November 2, $BTC has climbed back toward $78,500–$78,600. I still consider $76,000 a critical support zone. As long as BTC holds above this level, the possibility of further recovery remains alive. 🎯 Key levels to watch: - $79,000 — Immediate resistance - $80,000–$81,000 — Major resistance zone - $84,000 — Next upside target if BTC reclaims $81K convincingly. However, this rebound remains relatively weak, with le#Palantir Earnings Preview: Can High Growth Support a High Valuation US midterm elections are now becoming another major risk factor for crypto markets. Prediction markets are pricing in roughly 93% odds of Democrats taking the House, around 70–74% for the Senate, and approximately 70% for a clean sweep. These are market-implied expectations, not election results. Three developments deserve attention: 1. CRYPTO REGULATION: The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate on September 15. A change in congressional control could reshape the legislative agenda and deAfter Binance was hacked for 6.3 billion USD, customers net withdrew 3.64 billion, and ETFs also ran off with 643 million. $BTC is still holding around 78,000, the panic index dropped from 56 to 30, but the price didn’t crash accordingly[reference:1]. $ETH has climbed back above 2300, but the RSI is only 34.8, bouncing with much more difficulty than BTC. Institutional attention is clearly focused on BTC. Altcoins have become more savvy; $UNI gained 18% in a week to 7.31, AAVE has been repriced, and the lending sector rose 7.25% in 24 hours, selectively buying assets with income and products, while memes just fluctuate.
A-shares saw both volume and price rise today, with the ChiNext Index closing up 1.87%, turnover hitting 1.78 trillion with an increase of over 100 billion. AI short dramas and media surged 20cm in batches, Mango Excellent Media, Jetion, and Guomai all locked at the limit, Wintour Holdings hit the daily limit, and in big finance, Guojin and Pacific Securities also hit the limit, with over a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit. Hong Kong stocks: Hang Seng Tech closed up 2.25%, Yuewen surged over 15%, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, and Alibaba all turned green, with media and semiconductor sectors pulling together.
In US pre-market, semiconductors are recovering from Friday’s plunge. SK Hynix rose over 5%, Nvidia up 1.4%, but oil prices collapsed, WTI fell below 100. Money is chasing chips while avoiding commodities, creating a contradictory situation.Rebound divergence: ETH leads the rally, while SOL continues to weaken.
BTC is currently fluctuating around $77,700, ETH has rebounded above $2,280, and SOL has fallen back to around $94. Although all three coins are recovering at low levels, the strength difference is already clear: ETH is the strongest, BTC is consolidating steadily, and SOL continues to lag behind.
In the short term, the key for BTC is whether it can hold $77,000. If it holds, there is a chance to retest the $78,800 to $80,000 range; if it breaks down, the next support is at $76,400. Until it breaks above $80,000 again, I still consider this a consolidation phase and am not in a hurry to chase longs.
ETH is the strongest performer today, with the first resistance between $2,300 and $2,310. If it breaks and holds with volume, the next target is $2,350; if it rallies on low volume and falls back below $2,250, it may retest $2,200.
SOL is currently the weakest, with temporary support near $93, but resistance at $96. To truly turn strong, it needs to reclaim $100. If BTC falls back, SOL may be the first to break below $93 and continue seeking support around $90.
This rebound should not be judged solely by gains; the key is whether there is volume and if resistance levels can be held. Currently, ETH leads the rally, but overall, a true reversal structure has not yet formed.#US stocks and gold and silver fall sharply in sync, risk-averse capital flows diverge In a normal market, when US stocks fall, capital flows into gold and silver for safety. This time, both weakened simultaneously due to two overlapping factors: rising real interest rates + cross-market deleveraging squeeze. Inflation data is strong, and Federal Reserve officials have signaled hawkishness, causing the market to reprice "high interest rates lasting longer, with a possible rate hike in December." The holding cost of interest-free assets like gold and silver rises, naturally putting pressure on them. Meanwhile, US stocks, especially AI tech stocks, have pulled back, forcing many leveraged hedge funds and CTAs facing margin pressure to sell the most liquid gold and silver to cover positions. Gold and silver temporarily lose their safe-haven status and become "liquidation tools."
The so-called risk aversion divergence means capital no longer buys gold and silver but shifts to short-term US Treasuries and US dollar cash. The strengthening dollar further suppresses precious metals, creating a negative feedback loop. Silver has more speculative positions, so its volatility will be more intense than gold.
In terms of market impact, risk assets including cryptocurrencies are under pressure simultaneously, with rising volatility. But it is important to distinguish: this is not a panic sell-off due to geopolitical fears, but driven by liquidity and interest rate expectations. Key points to watch going forward: 10-year US Treasury real interest rates, the US dollar index, as well as inflation and nonfarm payroll data. If interest rate expectations peak and fall, gold and silver may regain their safe-haven pricing power; if interest rates continue to rise, gold and silver will continue to fluctuate weakly.
$BTC $ETH $SOL