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The monthly candle for October has closed 👇
$BTC dropped from 87,239 to 76,260, a full month decline of -7.79%;
$ETH was even worse, falling from 2,777.70 to 2,171.52, -16.14%, hitting a low of 2,171.52 on the 30th.
The liquidations were mainly on the long side.
According to Firsthand data up to October 30, BTC longs were liquidated for $2.14 billion, while shorts were only $960 million. Just on the 29th and 30th, longs liquidated over $500 million.
Currently, BTC is hovering around 77,700, OKEx contract funding rate is +0.01%, ETH is close to -0.00169%, but the long-short account ratio is still above 2.5, showing retail investors' bottom-fishing enthusiasm remains alive.
Personally, I feel ETH/BTC got hit too hard this month. At the start of November, let's first see if ETH can reclaim 2,300.
Personal opinion for reference only, not investment advice. The market has risks. Invest cautiously $BTC Rather than guessing the weekend spike, I’d rather have you look up at next week’s calendar.
$BTC nudged up near seventy-seven thousand, but weekends usually have low volume, so a little buying pressure can push the price up. This kind of bounce is completely different from a volume-driven reversal, so don’t rush to label it.
The real factors that will decide the direction will gradually unfold next week: the aftereffects of the Fed’s rate decision are still brewing, the US earnings season is wrapping up, and over in the Middle East, everyone is watching the post-election window. None of the key variables have played their cards yet; what you’re betting on now is sentiment, not information.
My approach at times like this is pretty boring: I don’t guess spikes, I save my bullets for the moment the signal comes out. The most expensive hands at the table are never the ones you win, but the ones you resist playing. How about you, feeling antsy?#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
On November 1st, BTC traded sideways with low volume around $77,200–$77,600, with the Fear & Greed Index at 30 (Fear). This sideways movement reflects a fragile stabilization due to "no trading" rather than a "balance between bulls and bears," occurring the day after a sharp drop and lacking volume support.
Derivatives signals remain bearish: the funding rate at +0.0074% has not turned negative, indicating that longs are still paying to hold their positions, and deleveraging is not yet complete; the proportion of long positions across all market accounts is as high as 73.56%, and crowded longs themselves are potential fuel. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $1.347 billion, with longs accounting for 86.68%, approximately $1.167 billion in long positions wiped out.
Key levels: 76,000 is the short-term critical line—if broken, look to 75,000; above, 78,000 is the first recovery target, and only above 80,000 can structural recovery be discussed. QCP judges that BTC is more likely to repeatedly consolidate between 75,000 and 82,000 rather than experience a V-shaped reversal. Officials say interest rates will rise, but the market lowers the probability of a rate hike: To read the divergence, look at three charts
For the same event, two different charts appeared tonight in Orbit.
The first chart is the officials' words. St. Louis Fed President Mester said that to curb inflation, further monetary tightening will be needed soon. Dallas Fed President Logan said at least two more 25 basis point rate hikes are needed. The message is in one direction: hawkish.
The second chart is the market pricing. The market's pricing for a December rate hike has fallen from about 85% to 70%–80%. The more hawkish the officials sound, the lower the pricing goes. Words and money are pulling in opposite directions.
The third chart is hard data. The US September core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year, indicating inflationary pressure remains; the October nonfarm payroll data to be released on November 6 is the next card to watch.
So when reading divergence, don't just listen to one statement: officials' words tell you the direction, market pricing tells you how much money is being bet, and hard data tells you when the next card will be played. If the three charts don't align, it's not time to draw conclusions yet.
Divergence itself is not a signal; wait for one card to break it—that's the current situation.
Do you usually listen to officials' words first, or look at market pricing first?
(Personal record, not investment advice. Numbers cited from the top topic description on Orbit's topic page tonight. No price points, no trade calls, no position cards. Contract trading is highly risky; leverage responsibly.) This liquidation heatmap is more intuitive than the ordinary liquidation map. The current price is around 77500.
Brothers, look at the colors—the brighter the yellow, the higher the liquidation intensity. The brightest line is near 78000, with an intensity of 10.61 million. This indicates that 78000 is the most concentrated liquidation zone in the entire market.
Looking further down, there is a green liquidation band near 76500 with moderate intensity. This is the support liquidation zone below.
Looking up, there are several blue liquidation bands near 79000 with low intensity. There are also some above 80000, but they are relatively sparse.
Let me translate the meaning of this chart for you:
First, 78000 is the biggest magnet. Once the price rebounds to 78000, it will trigger a large number of long position liquidations, pushing the price down. So 78000 is a strong resistance level.
Second, 76500 is the support below. When the price falls to around 76500, it will trigger a batch of long position liquidations, but there will also be buyers stepping in.
Third, the liquidation intensity above 79000 is very low, indicating there are not many leveraged positions there. If the price really breaks through 78000, moving upward will be smooth because there is no resistance.
I think the short-term trend is: first rebound to 78000, get pushed down by the liquidation zone, then retest 76500 before deciding the direction.
Do not chase longs at 78000, and do not chase shorts at 76500.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 $BTC $ETH $SOL Another group of people is ready to use Middle East headlines as a safe-haven play: Trump makes tough remarks saying he's not in a hurry to negotiate and that Iran can be resolved in ten minutes; Iran throws out seven conditions leading to a deadlock; oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are repeatedly hitting mines. Scary enough?
But what you should be reading is not the word "war," but oil prices. War pushes the risk premium on crude oil to a high level; when oil is expensive, the inflation story resumes, making the Fed's phrase "rate cuts to save the market" even harder to say.
For risk assets, this transmission is not a safe-haven benefit but a tightening curse of rate hikes: oil rises → inflation sticks → interest rates stay high → $BTC and growth stocks both come under pressure. These days, their synchronized decline is no coincidence.
Stop treating geopolitical conflicts as a reason for a quick bounce.20,917.49 $SOL tokens, this position size made me pause, but I prefer to view it within the overall risk appetite: the willingness of a single wallet to take on risk and the market's capacity to absorb risk are two different things. The data shows that Core Trader 07 opened a long position with 10x leverage, with a notional value of about $2,003,000.
My inclination is to see this position as a probe of risk appetite rather than evidence of a liquidity shift. The notional position reflects price exposure but does not equal an equivalent scale of cash inflow; and looking at this wallet alone, I don't know if it has hedges elsewhere. Translating this directly as "big money is fully bullish" is a bit of a stretch.
My reasoning is: if macro liquidity expectations improve, the market is generally more willing to accept high-volatility assets, making it easier for such longs to receive follow-up buying support; if risk appetite does not spread, leverage can only amplify this account's exposure and cannot create sustained buying out of thin air. Opening a position expresses intent, but whether it forms a trend depends on whether other funds are willing to take over.
I used to be easily attracted by large orders due to their size, but now I pay more attention to whether the market environment supports them. Next, I will observe whether overall risk appetite can spread and will not rush to upgrade a single long position into a macro conclusion. A single security incident caused a huge 5,000-point drop—has the negative sentiment fully vented? Just this little drop?
Let me first share my conclusion: If during the $105 high crude oil price + pre-midterm election risk-off period, under the herd effect after the platform hack, Bitcoin only dropped 5,000 points before starting to recover and rebound, stopping the decline, then all of this will become fuel for Bitcoin's rise.
How severe were the Black Friday negative factors?
1. Platform hacked, industry trust crisis
2. U.S. stocks plunged crazily by 10%, Intel dropped 28%
3. Crude oil rebounded back to the $105 high
4. The last weekend before the midterm elections, a sell-off day
Theoretically, these combined negative factors should have caused a drop far exceeding 5,000 points. When the first wave of selling triggered by the bad news hit, the price drop should have triggered massive long contract liquidations, and the forced selling would further push prices down, causing even more liquidations—this is the herd effect, right?
But in reality, with the exchange’s rapid, correct, well-coordinated, and highly effective handling, Bitcoin only tested the 76,600 support level three times within 24 hours before quickly rebounding. This might be the industry's cohesion.
The exchange did five things beneficial to Bitcoin’s rise and restoring market confidence:
1. Cut off deposits and withdrawals to control losses
2. Used their own funds to compensate 1:1 in equivalent altcoins for the losses
3. Coordinated globally to recover assets
4. Synchronized details of the incident and proactively admitted mistakes
5. Conducted internal rectifications
The platform itself brought tens of billions of dollars in spot buy orders, and yesterday there was an additional $100 million Bitcoin ETF buy order from BlackRock, effectively protecting the downside. Also, many industry leaders have started bottom-fishing Bitcoin, so the upward momentum at 77,700 is solidifying. For now, it’s time to go long on Bitcoin.
My thinking:
Friday’s volume-driven drop has repeatedly confirmed strong support at 76,600. Multiple downward tests have rebounded to oscillate between 77,000-77,200. The upward trend is likely confirmed.
Go long in the support range of 77,200-77,400, with a target of 79,300-79,800. The buy orders will push for a surge toward 80,000. The cost-performance ratio of long positions is relatively high.
I won’t chase shorts. After reaching 80,000, I will observe stability before considering short positions.Today Binance has to submit a test: the November 1 reserve snapshot, can it restore Ethereum to 100%?
The hacked Binance 14 wallet is exactly the verification address in the October 1 reserve proof. The lost funds are not the company's idle money but the money backing user assets.
At that time, the Ethereum reserve was exactly 100%, about 204,500 ETH were stolen, accounting for 5.6% of the reserve. CoinDesk estimated the coverage rate dropped to about 94%.
More striking are the smaller coins: stolen amounts of ENA, UNI, PEPE, and AAVE account for 7% to 15% of Binance's corresponding holdings.
Binance said it has prepared over $6.34 billion, with more than $5 billion in similar tokens already in place. Withdrawals will resume in phases starting today, and a complete reserve report will be released before next Monday.
But the 94% is only an estimate: it is based on the October 1 snapshot, and the mid-period portfolio adjustments and replenishments have not been disclosed yet. The snapshot itself is the real moment of truth.
Today, Ethereum is currently priced at about $2273, up 1.28% in 24 hours. The market has given half a vote of confidence, the other half awaits the numbers.
I think this snapshot is more effective than any verbal guarantee: it verifies whether the replenishment is backed by real money; the failure point is if the snapshot Ethereum is still below 100%, or if withdrawals resume and then pause again, then the "gap has been filled" claim does not hold.
Will you wait for the snapshot before making a move, or will you withdraw your coins now?
$ETH $BTC
#美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 A reminder for those still blindly shorting.
In the past two days, the perpetual funding rate for $ETH has turned negative—shorts are paying longs, and more people are piling into shorts; meanwhile, the total 24-hour forced liquidation volume across the network has shrunk from over 17 billion to around 5 billion, so the kind of cascading liquidations haven't happened at all.
My bias remains bearish, but "bearish" and "should short right now" are two different things. When the funding rate turns negative and liquidations dry up, that's often the point of maximum rebound elasticity: the shorts are most comfortable, but also most at risk.
Anyone who plays cards knows that holding good cards doesn't mean you push chips into the pot on every street. Wait for the bounce, wait for people to start chasing longs and paying fees again, then strike. Waiting empty-handed is also a form of position.A company with a market value of $7.8 million holds Bitcoin worth $450 million, and the board says: Sell!
Nasdaq-listed Next Technology (NXTT) announced that its board has authorized the sale or pledge of all approximately 5,833 Bitcoins, valued at about $77,000 each, totaling around $450 million.
The absurdity lies in the multiple: this holding is more than 50 times its own market value, ranking it 18th among global Bitcoin treasury companies.
Even more absurd is the reason: the coins are not even on Binance, yet due to Binance's $6.3 billion theft, exchange vulnerabilities, and quantum computing risks, the company decided to reassess its holding risks.
Moreover, this is only an "authorization," not a "transaction": whether to sell, how much to sell, and when to sell are all decided by the CEO, and the company also stated it does not guarantee any transaction completion.
The most critical point cannot be verified: the annual report only states the coins are held by a "Japanese institutional custodian," without naming it or providing wallet addresses, so outsiders cannot verify on-chain whether these 5,833 coins are actually there.
I think this is not a decision to sell coins but a "risk narrative arbitrage": leveraging the panic from Binance's hack to tell a story of reducing holdings for an unverifiable position; the trigger point is when the company discloses the custodian and wallet addresses or announces actual transactions, turning the story from "narrative" into "fact."
Do you think these 5,833 coins will really be sold in the end, or will it remain just an authorization document?
$NXTT $BTC
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 Let's talk about this week's big coin $BTC
At the beginning of the week, it fluctuated around 80,000, then once surged to about 82,000 midweek, but on Thursday and Friday it directly reversed, dropping to a low of 76,300, and currently it has returned to around 77,700
It fell about 3.6% this week, the trend looks pretty ugly 😮💨
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with two officials even advocating for a rate hike, then a major theft incident occurred in the crypto industry, and tech stocks collectively pulled back
Several events collided, causing the market to undergo a round of deleveraging
I'm still bearish now, especially after the previous support near 80,000 was broken, the short-term structure has clearly weakened
Next week, first watch for support around 76,000; if the rebound can't even reclaim 80,000, I will continue to treat it as a corrective move after the decline
NFA, DYOR!
#BTC持续震荡，后续走势受多重因素影响 OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz have joined forces to officially advance perpetual contracts into the compliant U.S. market. This is not just a simple "another product launch," but rather the integration of the crypto world's most familiar 7×24 perpetual contracts into the clearing and regulatory system of the New York Stock Exchange's parent company.
ICE will exclusively operate the U.S. market and invest in Trade.xyz. The underlying technology uses Hyperliquid, with contracts covering stocks, indices, commodities, forex, and crypto assets, available for trading around the clock.
Retail users are expected to be mainly distributed through the ICE-OKX joint venture—OKX has about 120 million users globally, combined with its compliant wallet and KYC capabilities, effectively opening a scalable channel for compliant perpetuals. Star's statement is straightforward: institutional-grade infrastructure + on-chain innovation + distribution and trading technology, the combination of these three aims to create a new generation of 24/7 financial markets.
For traders, the core change lies in "compliant identity." Many perpetual demands previously ran on offshore platforms with high leverage and flexible timing, but legal and counterparty risks always existed. If approval goes smoothly, U.S. users will have the opportunity to access similar products under a regulated framework, with funds and clearing backed by the ICE system, isolating risks between institutional and retail sides. Of course, leverage levels, margin requirements, and specific underlying assets will be more constrained than pure offshore versions, and everything remains a plan until approval is granted. #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 Midday Review｜1U Challenges One Million
📌$HYPE 20X Full Position Long｜Unrealized Profit +2152.95U, +325.28%, Decline 1.82%, Bullish Profit Ratio Rises, Unrealized Profit Continues to Expand
📌$BICO 8X Full Position Long｜Unrealized Loss -1944.70U, -982.63%, Decline 2.97%, Bearish Profit Dominates, Loss Further Enlarges
Summary: HYPE Stabilizes the Market, Profits Continue to Rise; BICO Weakness Persists, Position Pressure Increases. High Leverage Positions, Low Margin Ratio, Awaiting Direction.
#Federal Reserve Officials Signal Rate Hike, December Expectations Still Divergent
#OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz Join Forces to Promote Perpetual Contracts Entering the US Compliant Market
#Crypto Industry Collaborates to Safeguard Asset Security South Korea's October export data is out: chip exports surged 259% year-on-year, reaching $56.4 billion in a single month, with the entire country's foreign trade being driven upward solely by semiconductors. After reading the headline, one might want to shout "The super cycle never sleeps."
But if you look at the charts of storage stocks like $SNDK, Micron, and Hynix: despite explosive news, their stock prices have actually been declining these past few days.
This is exactly what I keep emphasizing—when narrative and price diverge, trust the price. Export data is a rearview mirror; stock price is the voting machine. Once the logic of real shortages is priced in early, even the most sensational news just becomes an excuse for those taking the risk.
The super cycle might be real, but those chasing it at this point are profiting from the story and losing money. Which do you trust more? The 2026 U.S. midterm election day is approaching
Voting day: November 3 (Tuesday) Beijing time (November 3 local U.S. time)
I believe the Nasdaq is close to a phase bottom, possibly now or within a month after election day. To avoid missing the market or bottom-fishing halfway,
I have decided to enter with half a position now as a base and keep the other half for buying if new lows appear later.
According to historical patterns, since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged about a 15% gain in the 12 months following midterm elections; the average gain in the six months (180 days) after the election exceeds 13%, with a high probability of an upward trend in historical samples.
Chart 2 shows the Nasdaq price has already spiked down to the 0.7 level and pulled back, and it may continue moving toward the previous high. 🌉 Old bridge loses customers, new chain not launched yet, coin rises nearly 10%.
LayerZero will launch its own chain Zero on November 30.
The majority of transaction fees are used to buy back and burn ZRO.
Old business is being taken over by Chainlink, Virtuals moved hundreds of millions in cross-chain volume.
Fee rate is near zero, holdings over eight million, not like squeezing shorts.
I think the bullish side is driven by the expectation of the November 30 launch that hasn't landed yet.
$ZRO #蘋果新執行長迎來iPhone 18首份成績單 Apple's latest earnings report should slightly exceed expectations, but the next earnings report will start to decline.Why can't $BTC's rebound after a sharp drop be directly regarded as risk removal? The FBI has attributed the over $6 billion theft on October 29 to TraderTraitor, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000 on Friday. Security risks first raise the risk premium for holding and trading, then trigger deleveraging. If spot buying support recovers and the lows rise, it indicates selling pressure has been absorbed; if capital outflows and lower lows continue, the rebound judgment fails.Without watching the market, I didn't even realize that if $SNDK reaches the key support level of 1000, there is still about 10% downside space. However, many traders can't hold back and have already entered early to catch the bottom. Many people simply chose to go long on the left side just because of the large previous drop, pushing the long-short ratio up to 6.92.
The reason this round of decline went so smoothly lies in the market's frenzy to catch rebounds, which was already exhausted during the previous drop before July. Those planning to go long still need to keep a steady mindset and not be too impatient.Recently, there has been a very interesting phenomenon in the community: why are more and more projects moving back from L2 to the Ethereum mainnet?
On the surface, it looks like a return to the technical route.
But anyone who understands a bit of trading logic knows how depleted L2 liquidity has become.
Projects can't survive outside anymore and have no choice but to return to the mainnet to band together for support.
This is not an ecological boom at all; it is a comprehensive contraction of capital defenses, and the "chill" in the market has already reached the upstream developers.
Against this backdrop, when we analyze the current market, the logic becomes very clear.
Look at this 4-hour chart: it has steadily declined from 2740 to 2174, and the current price is oscillating around 2268.
Look closely at the details: although the MACD formed a golden cross below the zero line, the increase in the red bars is extremely weak, still far from the zero line.
More importantly, the top of the price rebound just hit the dense EMA resistance zone above. Technically, this is called a "technical correction after overselling," not a trend reversal.
Capital is retreating, and the market rebound lacks follow-through strength. Under this structure, the upward space is tightly locked.
Based on this logic, I have maintained extreme restraint and patience in my positions.
A short position with an average price of 2583 has now gained 1223% floating profit. The core here is not how much I earned, but my risk control. A very low position of 0.1 ETH combined with a strong liquidation price at 2707 gives this trade a very high tolerance.
No matter how much the market oscillates and washes out around 2268, it cannot touch my defensive bottom line.
The essence of trading is to find certainty in an uncertain market. The current certainty is: the long-term trend is still bearish, and the rebound lacks incremental capital support.
The next step is simple. The 2280 to 2300 range is a dense area of trapped positions above and a key technical level confirming resistance effectiveness.
As long as the rebound reaches this area and fails to break out with volume, it is a reasonable point to add to short positions following the trend. The downward space first targets the previous low support at 2174; once broken, the profit space below will truly open.
Trading does not require guessing bottoms and tops every day. Understand the macro capital flow, layout along technical resistance, and leave the rest to time.
$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 [97 million CORE tokens stolen, the real exposure is BTCFi's security weakness]
This time, 97 million $CORE tokens were transferred out, valued at about $1.36 million at the time, accounting for approximately 6.5% of CORE's circulating supply. The numbers look scary, but the amount is not actually large; however, for a token with a market cap of only about $20 million, this is a significant blow.
b14g is a dual staking protocol connecting $BTC and CORE, allowing users to participate in staking to earn rewards. The attacker directly withdrew CORE from the staking contract, and the project team subsequently suspended the affected contract. About 68 million tokens remain on the Core chain, approximately 9 million tokens were frozen by exchange partners, and the whereabouts and recovery status of the remaining funds have not been fully disclosed.
BTCFi aims to bring Bitcoin into more staking and yield scenarios, but it also exposes users to more contract, permission, and cross-protocol risks. This is the most cautionary aspect of this incident. Core DAO stated that the underlying network and validator nodes are operating normally, and assets directly staked on Core were not affected. Therefore, the issue currently points to the contract security of b14g itself and should not be equated directly with an attack on the Core public chain. Moreover, CORE has been under pressure recently, and this security incident will only further weaken market confidence. For BTCFi to tell a good yield story, it must first prove that users' tokens will not mysteriously disappear. Seeing this, what popped into my mind was: why hasn't it stabilized yet. The word "yet" really exposes human nature; those hoping for a recovery can easily turn waiting into anxiety. 🫠
CryptoSlate mentioned that Bitcoin's recovery is currently facing challenges from rising derivative exposures and ETF redemptions, with ETF outflows reaching $643 million. Before the employment data release on November 6, demand remains to be tested.
I think this is more likely to trigger shaken confidence rather than prove the recovery has failed. Redeemers might want to reduce uncertainty first, but that doesn't mean they are all bearish; increased derivative exposure doesn't necessarily mean stronger bullish demand either. Onlookers tend to combine these two into "danger is coming," while holders may only pick information that supports a rebound—this is fear and confirmation bias each finding an outlet.
I also have to guard against myself using one piece of information to judge the entire market just to seek a definite answer; moving forward, I want to see if demand can hold up rather than how loud the emotions are shouted.Saw a pretty absurd piece of news: the account only had $1.5 left, and two days later, the unrealized profit was $70,000.
On the afternoon of October 30, Huang Licheng deposited 250,000 USDC and opened a 25x long position on Ethereum. Now holding 2,925 ETH, with unrealized profits exceeding $70,000, liquidation price at 2219.36. At the same time, he also has a 10x long position on HYPE, 4,250 units, with an unrealized loss of $12,000.
Both are long positions, one profits and one loses. The difference is not in leverage, but in the underlying asset.
What I care most about is that $1.5, which shows that the last round was really wiped out. Positions like this are emotional indicators, not a workbook.A single account had only $1.5 left, then a floating profit of 70,000 two days later. Sounds like a joke, but the position is real.
On the afternoon of October 30, Huang Licheng deposited 250,000 USDC and opened a 25x long position on Ethereum. Currently holding 2,925 ETH, with a floating profit exceeding $70,000, liquidation price at 2219.36. The same account also has a 10x long position on HYPE, 4,250 units, with a floating loss of 12,000.
A balance of $1.5 says more than any review about how thoroughly he was wiped out in the last round. Someone who can casually deposit 250,000 USDC but ends up with just one dollar fifty is not unlucky; it’s the result of continuous liquidations.
A floating profit of 70,000 sounds big, but given the 25x leverage and 2,925 $ETH position, it’s just a normal fluctuation. What really matters is the liquidation price of 2219.36—that’s the bottom line he was willing to bet on.
Both long positions: $ETH made 70,000, $HYPE lost 12,000. The difference isn’t in leverage but whether the asset kept up.
Another detail: he simultaneously sold BAYC #950 and #5310 through OTC. Selling apes while in profit usually means repositioning, not a cash shortage.
The value isn’t in the return rate but in showing how someone re-bets after liquidation. You can watch the direction, but don’t copy the position size.$QQQ -3.47%, $IBIT -5.14%, $BTC still in the green? Don't rush to call an independent rally; until the dollar eases, this looks more like a game of who blinks first sets the direction.
$BTC 77,467 +0.57% $ETH 2,254 +0.62%
$QQQ -3.47% $SPY -1.77% $IBIT -5.14%
$DXY +0.11% $GLD -3.47%
US Treasuries and Fed expectations continue to suppress valuations. AI/semiconductors remain the sentiment switch for $QQQ, while Trump and tariffs can disrupt the market at any time—three switches, whichever flips first pulls liquidity away.
$ETH is more resilient than $BTC; risk appetite isn't completely dead; $QQQ is clearly not strong enough, funds are still retreating into defense. $IBIT is weaker than $BTC; a soft ETF means the spot market isn't as strong as it looks. When $DXY strengthens, all risk assets get pressed down, even $GLD is down -3.47%, safe-haven funds are also withdrawing, so there aren't many havens in the defensive market.
There's too much mixed information today; don't rush your positions. Wait for $DXY to show weakness first or for $BTC to give a clear hold signal. Whoever gives direction first will lead the way.Don't be scared by the market! The three major conditions for a crash are currently not met at all
⚠️ Risk reminder: This is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice
Many people are anxious now: BTC current price 77634, just a step away from the 77000 support. If it breaks through, will it repeat the chain stampede on October 30?
I'll give the conclusion directly: the probability of an extreme short-term crash is very low because the three major conditions for a crash are not met at all right now.
First, the market has no concentrated positions. The total network positions are 136.09 billion, down 0.38% in one day. BTC and ZEC positions continue to withdraw, only ETH and SOL have slightly increased positions. Overall, the chips are not concentrated, so there is no basis for a chain explosion.
Second, the market is extremely low in volume. The total daily turnover is only 70.066 billion, a sharp drop of 68.09% compared to the previous period; the total liquidation amount is 48.72 million, directly down 91.30%. Liquidity is exhausted across the board, and the liquidation amounts for ETH and BTC are very low. There is no fuel for any stampede in the market.
Third, bulls and bears are completely balanced. The market is evenly split between bulls and bears. Retail investors are optimistic, but large holders are very restrained. The BTC balance on exchanges continues to decrease, chips are not concentrated waiting to be smashed, and there is sufficient market divergence with no unified short-selling force to crash the market.
All extreme declines currently remain only in the realm of imagination.
The current trading principle is simple: no full positions, no chasing orders, no speculating on black swans.
Before liquidation data and trading volume show obvious expansion, firmly avoid adding positions proactively, focus on steady position control and observation.The easiest thing to misread in this news flash is not the short position direction, but the attribution of the profit. I think it has a slightly bearish impact on SOL sentiment, but it is not enough to serve as evidence for judging the trend, especially not to treat the account's performance report as a guarantee for new positions.
According to Odaily monitoring, a certain address's contract account has accumulated profits of about $21.26 million. This time, it added 50,000 SOL short positions at an average transaction price of about $95.2776, equivalent to about $4.77 million, currently holding a total of 250,000 SOL short positions.
There are two perspectives to separate here: the accumulated profit belongs to the entire contract account, and the source of the profit is not explained in the material, so it cannot be directly attributed to this SOL operation; the new position indicates that this address has increased its short exposure, but it does not explain how the overall market's long and short forces have changed. The actions of one account, no matter how eye-catching, are not a panoramic view of the market.
When I read this kind of news, I pay special attention to the effect of the numbers being spread. My guess is that if everyone automatically translates "made a lot of money" into "also judged correctly this time," then the amplified effect is more likely to be bearish sentiment rather than the intrinsic value of the information itself. This is also a cognitive pitfall that ordinary users are more likely to fall into.
Therefore, I will treat it as a position sample to be added to the observation list, then watch whether the price and trading volume respond accordingly, rather than attributing predictive power to that $21.26 million.10x long HYPE, many people would read it as "strongly bullish," and this position has a nominal value of about $175,800.
On the other hand, I don't agree with using leverage to score confidence: with the same exposure, adding leverage reduces margin required but doesn't necessarily mean more optimism; a 1% adverse move results in about a 10% loss relative to the initial margin, not counting fees, so the tolerance for error is actually lower.
For those with opposing views, let's debate: without stop-loss information, would you interpret this 10x as confidence or just capital allocation?The biggest trap in backtesting
Everyone can make a backtest look perfect. But in live trading, most fail. Why?
1. Overlapping samples: Data points are not independent. The t-stat looks amazing, but it's an illusion.
2. Ignoring slippage: Real order execution can wipe out your edge.
3. Correlation breakdown: Pairs don't always revert.
I fixed these 3 things before my Z-score bot started working.
Result: +21% base asset accumulation in 1 month (DOT/XCH). No trend guessing, just math.
DYOR."Deep V" Divergence Under Hacker Attack: Revaluation of Three Major Assets
Negative news from hackers hit, but the crypto market did not crash and instead formed a "deep V" recovery. The core is divergence: BTC held steady at $77,700, ETH rose 0.82% against the trend to $2,267, while SOL fell below the 100-dollar mark.
$BTC: Negative news created a "golden pit." Hackers once pushed BTC down to $76,300, but Binance spot buying exceeded selling by $3.28 million. The main force did not collapse; the negative news became a buying opportunity. Today it rose slightly by 0.22%, consolidating sideways to absorb panic.
$ETH: Resilience amid ETF outflows. Despite 23 consecutive days of net outflows from spot ETFs, ETH held its range, and the ETH/BTC rate rose 0.79% in 24 hours. ETF withdrawals were offset by increased on-chain staking, making ETH relatively strong today.
$SOL: The most direct pressure from capital outflows. It fell 0.44% today, losing the 100-dollar level. ETF outflows exceeded $10 million in a single day, compounded by a nearly 49% decline this year. While BTC has buying support and ETH has staking, SOL lacks equivalent support.
Summary: The core logic is "capital reallocation catalyzed by negative news." The event exposed differences in capital structure: BTC absorbs selling pressure through strong buying depth, ETH maintains resilience through staking hedges, and SOL shows vulnerability. The panic index at 31 indicates sentiment has not recovered, but the divergence shows existing capital has not exited and is voting with its feet to reorder allocations.
#英特尔Q4指引不及预期，股价暴跌近30% Company's strong trump card: large-scale buyback
Remaining stock buyback quota of $15.5 billion serves as an important bottom support tool; the company has very strong cash flow and ample cash reserves in its financial report, allowing buybacks after a decline to offset some selling pressure
Samsung clearly plans to increase high-end SSD capacity, aiming to capture the AI storage market; industry consensus: enterprise SSD prices can still rise 15%–18% by 2026 Q4, but after Q2 2027, with new capacity coming online, the price increase cycle will most likely peak, which is the biggest medium- to long-term bearish hint.
Revenue: $11.03 billion, up 23% quarter-over-quarter and 378% year-over-year, exceeding the upper guidance limit;
◦ Adjusted EPS: $49.51, beating expectations; gross margin 85.1% (extremely high level);
◦ Highlights: data center business $4.8 billion, up 61% quarter-over-quarter and 1682% year-over-year, with AI KV cache and inference storage as the biggest growth drivers;The lending pool can now deposit and borrow again, but the high utilization borrowing interest curve hasn't been adjusted back yet.
The risk side suggests adjusting the high utilization borrowing interest back to pre-incident levels, but that's just the next step and doesn't mean it's already on-chain.
The core stablecoin tier's full utilization borrowing interest needs to be raised from about 10 to 14.5.
Don't misunderstand that the interest rate rules have fully returned to normal.
Keep an eye on when the high utilization borrowing interest curve truly goes on-chain. $AAVE $LIT $LIT Just finished hanging up my clothes, looking at LIT's chart, I immediately wanted to slap myself. I started playing this thing in the car back in May, but I completely missed out on the massive gain from 0.83 to 5.5; then it crashed all the way down from the peak to 2.68, and I didn't miss a single drop, got hit hard, my underwear is almost gone!
【Hardcore review of this “dead cat bounce”】:
Looking at the daily chart, the long-term uptrend line has long been broken, and the MA60 (3.93) above is pressing down like a steel plate. Although the 15-minute chart looks strong now, pulling hard from 2.68 to 3.18, looking at the MACD below, DIF and DEA are already flattening or preparing for a death cross above the zero line, this is purely an "oversold volume-less rally."
From a macro perspective, market liquidity is tightening, funds are all clustered in mainstream coins, and no one cares about these old altcoins. The funniest part is in chart 3 data, the long-short ratio is only 0.78, with short accounts making up 56%! This means retail investors are crazily shorting at the top during the rebound, and the big players will likely push it up one more time to clear out the shorts before dumping again.
My advice: Use the sharpest eye to perfectly avoid the rise. I really dare not add to this broken car; a rebound near the moving average is the chance to run.
Brothers, I've been watching this thing for half a year.
Better wait until the direction is clearer before entering. #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 Ladies, $ETH is so stable right now, slowly climbing up, but I just don't buy it!
If it keeps rising, once it hits 2300, I'll add to my position and start rolling.
Look at the candlesticks, creeping up slowly from 2205, now stuck at 2267.
It looks strong, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 all pushing up, but take a close look at the MACD below: DIF 3.52, DEA 3.11, red bars only 0.81, and clearly shrinking.
What does this mean? It means this rebound is just the last gasp of strength; the upward momentum can't keep up.
This kind of low-volume slow rise is just the manipulative whales fishing, tricking retail investors who think the market is reversing to jump in.
This slow rise is basically the main players pumping the price to unload their holdings, with no new money coming in—just the existing funds inside the market shuffling around.
The candlesticks look bright red, but underneath there's hardly any real money left.
The bulls are like frogs in warm water, still dreaming of a rise back to 3000, but when the manipulators reveal their true intentions, it'll be too late to escape.
As for my strategy, I've made it clear: as soon as it dares to touch above 2300, I'll definitely not hesitate and will add to my short position.
The downside target remains fixed at 2200; if it breaks, then the big 2000 level is next.
$BTC
$SOL
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 $SKHYNIX #SK hynix's record-breaking performance falls short of expectations, storage stocks fluctuate sharply #SK hynix PE only 5.37x: Ultraman comes knocking to grab goods, but storage stocks are mistakenly sold off at the cycle top
The 4-hour chart shows SK hynix currently priced at $1044.2, retreating from a high of $1184.2 to a low of $852.9 before weakly oscillating. Short-term moving averages are flat, mid-term moving averages still exert pressure, MACD green bars narrow, KDJ turns up from a low; key resistance above at $1147.9, support below at $976.9, decline accompanied by volume increase, capital divergence intensifies.
Industry demand certainty is maximized: OpenAI's Ultraman personally visits South Korea for closed-door talks with Samsung and SK hynix executives, top AI manufacturers personally come to grab goods; Samsung predicts DRAM supply tightness may continue until 2028, SK hynix's Q3 profit margin reaches 79.7%, data center order schedules are long.
But US storage sector stocks plunge inversely: Micron's forward PE only 4.3x, SanDisk has pulled back over 50% from its high, the market prices in a "cycle peak," forming an extreme divergence from industry fundamentals. Risks to watch: AI inference concentrating on the cloud may squeeze consumer memory demand; if major clients cut orders or contract prices loosen, the logic for storage price increases needs to be reassessed.$CORE This screenshot can be called a "miniature landscape" of the CORE project's path to its endgame. It not only shows the official's pale PR after a series of explosions but also vividly records the complete rupture and collapse of the community's grassroots ecosystem. Combining our tracking over the past half year, I divide the information in this picture into two parts for you to analyze: "Official passing the buck" and "Dog-eat-dog in the comment section": 🎭 1. Official tweet: A textbook case of "abandoning the car to save the driver" The official tweet is short, but its core purpose is only one: to vigorously distance themselves and soothe the remaining "bag holders." · Talking point 1: "The Core network is secure." This is purely wordplay. The official separated the mainnet and ecosystem protocols, meaning "b14g is a third-party protocol; if money was stolen, that's their problem; our mainnet was not hacked." · Talking point 2: "CORE staked directly with validators or through other protocols is unaffected." This is to reassure those who haven't fled yet, implying: "Don't panic, the money you staked with the official is safe; don't follow the dump." · The reality: The official support now is extremely limited. Even staking protocols in the ecosystem had 97 million coins instantly swept away, which shows the so-called "underlying security" is a joke. And although the official says they "assist in tracking," everyone knows that in this CORE mess, which has already dropped to 0.014U and liquidity is dried up, even if the money is recovered, it won't be enough to fill a gap. 💥 2. Comment section: A mess of "doomsday revelry" Compared toStop bottom-fishing.
Really, stop bottom-fishing.
Even Big Bro Maji has learned his lesson.
On October 30, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $643 million, wiping out four consecutive days of net inflows in just one day.
Institutions are running. What about you?
In the past 24 hours, long positions worth 1.167 billion were liquidated across the network, accounting for 86.68% of total liquidations.
The bulls are being pressed down and cut down bit by bit.
What's even more ironic?
A giant whale with $100 million in long positions made $17.78 million in profit and closed all positions. Then at the 2280 level, he flipped and opened 20,000 ETH short positions.
You're still gritting your teeth holding longs. They've already changed direction.
And today, Maji's Ethereum longs just showed a $70,000 unrealized profit. The first thing he did was not to add to his position, but to sell two BAYC apes.
Someone who once held positions worth hundreds of millions is now eager to cash out after making $70,000, not even holding onto NFTs.
Do you have more confidence than him?
ETFs are running, whales are shorting, Maji is selling his assets. Who exactly are you waiting for to carry your long positions?
Did you bottom-fish today? Report in the comments, let me see how many people are still rushing in.
The above is just my personal review and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $ETH #加密行业协同守护资产安全
#ETH Bottoming and Rebound: AI Falsification is a Misunderstanding, Post-Quantum Risks + ETF Outflows Suppress Rebound Potential
The 4-hour chart shows ETH bottomed at $2171.52 and has started a weak recovery, currently priced at $2265.76. Short- and mid-term moving averages still indicate bearish pressure, MACD green bars are narrowing, KDJ is turning up from a low position, and short-term downward momentum is weakening; key resistance is at $2283.52, core support at $2214.22—breaking below this will open a new round of downside.
The widely discussed “AI falsification of ETH” is actually a translation error: what was falsified is the index time hypothesis in computer science, unrelated to the Ethereum token, purely an academic breakthrough with no direct impact on the coin price. However, the real long-term risk cannot be ignored: AI computing power is accelerating the compression of the underlying cryptographic security cycle. Vitalik has warned that lattice cryptography could face severe impacts within two years. Ethereum has formed a post-quantum team planning to complete the hash signature upgrade route by 2029.
Fundamental bearish factors continue to be released: spot ETFs have seen net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days, with $1.61 billion withdrawn in October, setting a record high since listing; Binance stolen assets have been largely converted to ETH and laundered through DeFi; the EIP-7702 vulnerability has raised wallet security concerns; combined with L2 fee capture weakening ETH value accumulation, medium-term rebound still faces significant pressure.#加密行业协同守护资产安全 I stared at the screen, tears almost falling into my food.
Actually, there aren't that many hackers. My funds have clearly been just "fluctuating normally," only disappearing a bit more slowly amid the volatility.
Everyone sees the screenshot saying "private keys weren't leaked but signature authorization was abused," which is indeed scary. But in the crypto world, more ruthless than hackers are the market manipulators! Hackers still have to stay up late coding or use AI to find vulnerabilities, but manipulators just need to spike the price at midnight and trigger a long-short squeeze, making our holdings "legally" disappear.
Looking at the macro logic, the current environment has tight liquidity, repeated expectations of Fed rate cuts, and extremely scarce on-exchange funds. In this zero-sum game, the main players love to launch surprise midnight spikes. You open a 10x long position thinking you're trading with the trend, but you're actually just paying tolls to the manipulators. No hacker is stealing your U; your U is slowly drained through repeated stop losses, liquidations, and negative funding rates.
My advice: the best way to protect your assets isn't complicated two-factor authentication, but controlling your impulses and reducing leverage. In a one-sided downtrend or extremely low-volume choppy market, staying out and watching is the highest form of defense.
With the tightest defense, endure the harshest blows. Brothers, do you think hackers are scarier, or are the manipulators more shameless?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Two simultaneous position actions by the same person are often more honest than any opinion. In the latest on-chain records of Brother Maji, opposite directional operations appeared.
His 25x leveraged $ETH long position increased to 2,925 tokens, with an unrealized profit of about $63,700. On the other side, the $HYPE long position decreased to 4,200 tokens, with an unrealized loss of about $12,800.
Putting these two together, the logic is not hard to read: the profitable leg is being increased, the losing leg is being cut. Under 25x leverage, margin is calculated based on amplified volatility; the unrealized loss side is not a "wait a bit longer" issue, but whether it will eat up the available margin. So reducing HYPE is not necessarily bearish on HYPE, but more like pulling back exposure first and concentrating firepower on the side still making money.
There is another detail easily overlooked: Yuga Grails OTC completed an off-market transaction of BAYC #950 and BAYC #5310, buyer Adam Weitsman, seller Brother Maji. The same account is increasing ETH longs while selling BAYC.
This is an asset form migration: from illiquid, blue-chip NFTs that can only be slowly sold via limit orders, to contract positions that can be closed anytime and leveraged. OTC deals don’t crash the market or move the floor price; the cost is discount and waiting.
Worth considering is that the $63,700 unrealized profit is just a book figure, not realized cash. The more concentrated the position, the higher the risk of being liquidated by a margin call.Prediction markets are gaining popularity, and I think they add a new business avenue to the crypto space. But unlike holding spot coins indefinitely, prediction contracts must settle according to rules upon expiration. You have to read the questions carefully; it feels more like negotiating a contract. The odds look like probabilities, but they also include capital preferences, and shallow pools can easily cause distortion. I'm quite concerned whether this buzz can bring genuinely new wallet users. Customer acquisition must consider input versus output; otherwise, after all the effort, it's just the same group of money changing counters.The market has already priced in a 70% probability of a "Democratic sweep of both chambers," which is the most dangerous signal right now. When consensus becomes too crowded, the positive news itself turns into fuel for selling — while most people are still focused on the outcome, ignoring that the pricing has long been completed. Let's first look at the most counterintuitive point: if the Democrats really take both chambers, this is not new good news but a "realization of expectations." The script of buying the rumor and selling the fact will immediately start, with funds exiting upon confirmation. The technology and storage sectors are most likely to experience sharp volatility with a spike followed by a drop. In other words, the scenario with the highest chance of winning might actually be the sharpest knife. The real bomb lies on the other side. If the result deviates from mainstream expectations, for example, if the Republicans take one of the two chambers, that would be a disappointment of expectations, directly impacting current valuations with volatility far beyond imagination. The market has previously priced in the most optimistic scenario fully in advance, so any deviation will be magnified into a drastic repricing. This is also why the three positions held need to be reexamined: $SOXL, as a leveraged semiconductor product, is extremely sensitive to sentiment and valuation changes; $SNDK just experienced earnings beating expectations and announced a stock split, yet its stock price dropped over 13%, indicating that the good news has been overplayed; $SKHY is also exposed to risks in storage and technology. The combination of the three amplifies uncertainty into a giant bomb. The takeaway judgment is: when the market prices the best outcome at 70%, what you really need to guard against is not the bad outcome, but the "selling pressure at the moment the good outcome materializes." The trend of $SNDK has already demonstrated this in advance—Panic bottom held, but buying power exhausted: On October 30, after the panic bottom at 76,149 (72.3 billion / -2.221 billion), the market held this level for two consecutive days — October 31 low was 76,955 (806 points above the panic bottom), and as of November 1, it is currently 77,633. However, the trading volume on November 1 was only 2.3 billion (3% of the panic day), and although Delta turned positive to +790 million, the extremely low volume positive Delta only indicates exhaustion of selling pressure, not entry of buyers. Whether 76,149 is the ultimate bottom or a downward consolidation remains an unresolved core question. 1. Dow Theory The panic bottom held, and the Dow bearish trend has not reversed: From the Dow perspective, after the six-week new low of 76,149 on October 30, the levels on October 31 at 76,955 and November 1 at 77,370 did not make new lows, which is a positive signal of "no new lows" in Dow terms. However, a Dow trend reversal requires dual confirmation of "higher lows + higher highs" — currently, although the lows have risen (76,149 → 76,955 → 77,370), the highs have not risen (81,879 → 78,614 → 77,640 → 77,636), so the Dow bearish trend structure remains intact. Key observation: Holding the panic bottom for two consecutive days indicates strong support around 76,149. But in Dow terms, "bottom confirmation" requires the price to break above the previous high of 78,614 (October 30 high), otherwise it may still formAI Claims to "Falsify ETH"? Expert Analysis: A False Alarm and a Real Crisis, How Should Retail Investors Protect Themselves? Recently, news about AI and Ethereum (ETH) has been causing a huge stir. Many fans have privately messaged me asking: "Has AI cracked ETH?" "Should we rush to sell off?" From an expert perspective, this matter must be thoroughly clarified today. It is a combination of a **"false alarm"** and a "real crisis." Don't be scared into panic selling by clickbait headlines from self-media that take things out of context. First, the "AI falsifying ETH" is a translation misunderstanding. OpenAI recently announced that its AI model "falsified ETH," and many marketing accounts directly tagged it as Ethereum. In fact, the ETH here refers to the "Exponential Time Hypothesis," a mathematical conjecture in computer science, which has nothing to do with the Ethereum token. This is purely an academic breakthrough and has no direct impact on the cryptocurrency market. Second, the real crisis: AI accelerating cryptographic breakthroughs. Although Ethereum itself has not been directly cracked, Ethereum Foundation researchers and Vitalik Buterin have issued extremely serious warnings. AI is accelerating mathematical research at an astonishing speed. Under AI's computational power bombardment, the underlying cryptography that originally would take decades to break (such as the ECDSA elliptic curve algorithm protecting wallets, and even the "lattice cryptography" considered a post-quantum secure scheme) is having its security lifespan significantly shortened. Vitalik even warned that within the next two years, lattice cryptography could beHave you~ been~ watching~ the~ funding~ rate~?~~
The red bar is lit, 0.010%, longs are paying shorts.
(○´･д･)ﾉ
Throughout October, the funding rate was positive most of the time, longs have been dominant; a few brief dips into negative territory were quickly pulled back. The most striking thing: BTC slid from 87,000 to 77,000, yet the funding rate remained positive. This shows longs haven't left and are still holding on hard.
╮(￣⊿￣)╭
Normally, with a price crash, longs should cut losses and the funding rate should turn negative. But now it's the opposite—retail investors buy more as the price falls, continuously bottom-fishing and going long. 68% are on the long side, and the funding rate is still positive, meaning longs haven't been fully liquidated.
ಠ_ರೃ
This is dangerous: the more longs crowd in, the harsher the liquidations later. Don't treat "positive funding rate" as a talisman; it's more like an unexploded bomb.
~(+﹏+)~
Only when the funding rate sharply turns negative and shorts start paying longs does it feel like the shakeout is over. Until then, don't rush to carry the flag for the longs.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH $SOL
Trade rationally, don't get carried away, meow!
╮(๑•́ ₃•̀๑)╭BTC holds near $77,657.6, up 0.24%, but ETH is stronger at +0.75% while SOL declines 1.13%. That relative split suggests selective risk appetite rather than a broad rebound. With BTCUnderPressure still trending, it remains uncertain whether ETH strength can persist without wider participation.
Not financial advice.Top ten in 24-hour trading volume: BTC alone consumed $239 million, ETH $132 million, together twice as much as the other eight combined. Money is in the big coins, not in the altcoins.
The ones falling actually have volume: TRX -7.3% still ranks fourth, dumping $71.6 million; HYPE -1.4% with $63.3 million; ZEC -2.3% with $56.9 million. Big drops with large volume indicate some are rotating, not ignoring them.
The only gainers are NEAR +2.3% and PEPE +2.1%, both with volumes under $30 million.
I'm watching defensively: when big coins attract funds and small coins bleed, chasing rebounds risks catching a falling knife. Wait for BTC to hold above 78,000 before talking offense.
Are you holding big coins or altcoins?
$BTC $ETH $TRX #欧意Orbit #BTCMarket #Altcoins #CapitalFlow
Crypto assets are high risk; the above is personal observation, not investment advice, please DYOROKX 24-hour rise in 67 coins, fall in 115 coins, $LIT most eye-catching: +12.8%.
The rise is not in spot, but in contracts. From 10-31 16:00 to 11-01 07:00, $LIT surged from 2.6865 to 3.1944, +18.9% in 19 hours. During the same period, OKX perpetual contract volume was 19.57 million tokens ≈ $61 million, spot LIT-USDT only 4.28 million; contracts are 14 times the spot volume.
Counterintuitively, the funding rate: in the last four periods, three were negative, the latest -0.0104%/8h, shorts are paying longs; open interest rose from $20.9 million to $24.5 million, +17%. Price up, positions added, shorts paying — new short positions were buried around 2.7.
After Binance was hacked for $6.3 billion, the DEX perpetual narrative heated up: DEX perpetual trading volume doubled to a record $1.2 trillion (CoinMarketCap). But according to DefiLlama, Lighter's 30-day fees are only $6.06 million, annualized $72.7 million — 9.3% against a $779 million market cap, only 2.4% against a $3.06 billion FDV; circulating supply is 250 million tokens, over 70% still locked.
What’s rising is expectation, not cash flow. Should you chase the high contracts or wait for spot?#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Apple will release earnings after market close tomorrow. Market expectations: revenue about 113.3 billion (+10.6%), EPS 1.98, iPhone 56.5 billion (+15%, mainly due to price increases), service growth about 10%.
The real variable is the December quarter guidance: Pro models have shipped, base models will wait until March next year, combined with memory price increases, sellers worry market expectations are too high; Goldman Sachs expects only low to mid single-digit growth, if confirmed, the stock price could be under pressure at a 35x PE.