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#英特尔Q4指引不及预期，股价暴跌近30%
New DeepMind Research: AI Doesn't Need to Surpass All Human Experts to Spawn Giant Oligopolies
Google DeepMind co-founder Shane Legg, along with economists Alex Imas and Andrew Koh, published a paper on the economic impact of AGI, attempting to explain a paradox: as AI's programming, math, and other abilities continuously surpass human experts, why haven't corporate organizations and labor markets undergone similarly drastic changes?
The researchers believe the issue lies in the past focus on individual AI capabilities, neglecting the value created by enterprise division of labor and collaboration. They tested 100 people across six fields including math and science, finding that pairs matched by complementary expertise performed 32% better than randomly paired individuals. Humans have diverse strengths that can compensate for each other's weaknesses; replicating multiple identical AI models often results in a group of employees with similar weaknesses.
The paper further builds an economic model showing that even if AI surpasses human experts in all specialized tasks, as long as bottlenecks in collaboration between agents remain, enterprises will struggle to expand indefinitely, and the market may still consist of many small and medium-sized firms.
Conversely, even if a single AI has not yet reached top expert level, once collaboration between agents crosses a critical threshold, the situation could be entirely different. When new Agents… $PEPE This 50x short position entered at 0.0000055031, target at 0.0000049768, with an unrealized profit of +478.18%.
Calculating: from 5503.1 down to 4976.8, a drop of 526.3, about 9.56% decline, multiplied by 50x equals 478% — matching the number on the screen.
The interesting part of this trade is that the target dropped nearly 10%, and with 50x leverage, the profit is almost 5 times. Leverage is a multiplier, the market movement is the base — with a large enough base, even low leverage can yield big gains.
Looking at the trend: the line on the chart shows an overall downward fluctuation, with heavy back-and-forth in the middle, not a smooth one-way move. Remember when converting with 50x: for every 1% reverse move in the target (about 55), the unrealized profit decreases by 50 points. For reference: back to 5100, unrealized profit about 365; 5200, about 274; 5300, about 183; 5400, only 92; back to cost 5503.1, zero profit. On the downside: breaking 4900, about 548; 4800, about 639; 4700, about 730. In other words, going up just 5.6% cuts profit in half, but it needs to drop another 4.2% to gain 100 more points — so the risk above the current position is faster than the reward below. Therefore, I first closed part of the position, set the trigger line above cost, and will exit if it rises above 5200. $BTC $ETH
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值
$PLTR $xPLTR I believe the probability of Yes is higher, about 82%–88%, with a midpoint of 85%.
1. This threshold is almost unreasonably low
The market requires non-GAAP EPS > 0.42 (equal is considered No). Last quarter was actually 0.41.
In other words, it only needs a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.01 USD, a 2.4% rise.
Quarter EPS QoQ
2025Q2 ~0.13 —
2025Q3 ~0.19 +46%
2025Q4 ~0.24 +26%
2026Q1 ~0.34 +42%
2026Q2 0.41 +21%
2026Q3 forecast 0.42 +2.4%
In the past five quarters, the lowest QoQ was 21%. Now the requirement is 2.4%. This threshold itself indicates that the sell-side expectations are conservative.
2. Revenue expectations are also lowered
Next quarter revenue forecast is 2.18 billion, last quarter actual was 1.935 billion, a QoQ increase of +12.6%.
Historical QoQ growth rates: +13.6%, +17.7%, +19.1%, +16.0%, +18.5%. +12.6% is the lowest recent expectation.
Revenue is underestimated + EPS threshold is lowered, both ends are conservative. According to this position disclosure, Brother Maji simultaneously holds long and short positions in BTC, ETH, and HYPE, but the results do not naturally hedge: the BTC short position has a slight profit, while the ETH long and HYPE short positions are both at unrealized losses, with HYPE being the main drag. BTC is a 40x full-position short, holding -249.9 BTC, position value 19,159,900 U, opening price 78,104.1 U, unrealized P&L +358,700 U, funding income +146,900 U. Margin 479,000 U, liquidation price listed at 99,106.49. ETH is a 25x full-position long, holding 9,823.81 ETH, position value 21,962,100 U, opening price 2,427.28 U, unrealized P&L -1,883,000 U, funding expense -62,900 U. Margin 878,500 U, liquidation price listed at 1,645.89. HYPE is a 5x full-position short, holding -252,900 HYPE, position value 22,748,900 U, opening price 69.9511 U, unrealized P&L -5,056,800 U. Although funding income is +1,152,600 U, it is still insufficient to cover this unrealized loss; margin 4,549,800 U, liquidation price listed at 110.35. 💡 My view. This portfolio actually bets on the relative performance between different coins. The BTC short position already provides some buffer, but the loss scale of the HYPE short position is significantly higher than the ETH long position, and even if ETH strengthens, it onlyThis really made me laugh 😹😹😹 I was already pushing for the 100u level playing $SNDK, but then a wallet got lost? #闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13%
The market pricing has already overwhelmingly bet on the Democrats sweeping both chambers, with a 70% probability fully priced in.
If in the end the Democrats do take both chambers, it would be a positive realization, likely leading to a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact scenario. After the positive news is realized, funds might take the opportunity to exit, causing tech and storage sectors to spike and then pull back sharply.
But if the result deviates from this mainstream expectation, for example if the Republicans take one chamber, that would be a busted expectation, directly impacting current pricing and causing very volatile swings.
Looking at our positions in $SOXL, $SKHY, and $SNDK: this event is a huge uncertainty bomb. The market has already priced in the most optimistic scenario,
so set your defense levels in advance to avoid having this big chunk of gains swallowed by the election results. Wow,
I had no idea until I looked, and I was shocked!
$SNDK still has a 10% drop left before hitting the 1000 support at the bottom, so why are so many people already unable to resist bottom-fishing?
Seeing it drop so much, are they bottom-fishing on the left side to go long?
They've pushed the long-short ratio up to 6.92 directly.
Don't you notice how smooth this round of decline is?
Because the FOMO bottom-fishing sentiment was already exhausted by the drop before July,
The bulls need to be patient,
Why so anxious and restless?$BTC exchange was hacked for 1.4 billion, such a huge blow, yet Bitcoin didn't even lose a bit of its value.
The hackers haven't sold any yet, and the platform itself has to raise 1.4 billion to buy back at market price as a safety net.
The panic sellers have already sold early, and now all the buy orders are lined up for the buyback.
At this point, if you're still blindly shorting, when the market orders start sweeping the book, are you ready to take the hit?
#BTC
$BTC
👇🌟Big Bro Maji's account has been updated
This move really turned "hedging" into "hedging against oneself"
Total position over 64 million U, with a paper loss of 5.77 million U. This is not hedging risk; it's clearly self-conflict, creating liquidity for oneself
Let's break down this "god-level" position
1. BTC short (40x) made 170,000 U profit and collected 150,000 in funding fees. This is the village's hope and the only cover-up
2. ETH long (25x) lost 1.8 million U. Going long ETH while shorting BTC, what is this bet on? Betting on Ethereum catching up? Or just wanting to feel the thrill?
3. HYPE short (5x) is the main event, lost 4.14 million U, but magically collected 1.16 million U in funding fees! What does this mean? It means Big Bro is shorting a hot asset that the whole network is long on, effectively turning himself into a philanthropist paying the bulls' wages
This is a classic "big money trap." The leverage doesn't look high (especially HYPE at only 5x), but the position value is so large that the margin for error is extremely low. ETH and HYPE are getting hit from both sides, barely hanging on thanks to BTC shorts and HYPE's high funding fees.
Don't blindly trust big influencers' "full position hedging"; sometimes they're just using real money to demonstrate what "losing money by skill, earning interest by luck" means. Let's not pay this 5.77 million tuition fee, retail investors
$BTC $ETH $HYPE $ETH ETH October Closing Battle: ETF Funds Flee Over 1 Billion, Where Is the Bottom?
ETH reported at $2,244, down over 12% in October, marking the worst October performance in nearly eight years. The market fear index is only 30, with sentiment hitting rock bottom.
The core contradiction lies in the capital flow—U.S. spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of about $1.08 billion this month, the largest single-month redemption since 2026. Issuers are forced to sell ETH on the secondary market to fulfill redemptions, creating a negative cycle of "redemption → dumping → more redemption."
Key levels:
Support below at 2,208 (this week's low); if broken, there is a large concentration of leveraged liquidation lines around 2,180, which could trigger a chain liquidation once touched; resistance above at 2,262 is the first intraday barrier, and 2,425 is the 20-day moving average resistance—breaking through is necessary to reverse the short-term downtrend.
On-chain data reveals bottom signals: staking locked volume remains stable without decline, exchange reserves continue to decrease, and chips are moving from exchanges to off-exchange—long-term funds have not panicked and exited.
In the short term, it is highly likely to oscillate and consolidate between 2,200-2,425, and when ETF fund flows turn positive is the key to breaking the deadlock. #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 October is coming to an end, and my biggest takeaway from this month is simple: the market hasn't run out of opportunities, but risks keep appearing one after another. BTC started the month near $87,000 before falling toward $77,000 by the end, recording an approximately 7% monthly decline. ETH and SOL performed even worse. Whenever BTC attempted a small recovery, altcoins often fell harder, showing that market liquidity remains defensive. 1. The Federal Reserve remains the biggest macro variabl$BTC
NXTT will announce tonight that the board has authorized the phased sale or pledge of 5,833 BTC, worth 449 million dollars. The reasons given are Binance being hacked, vulnerabilities in exchange custody, and the threat of quantum computing. I still believe the first two reasons; the quantum one is just filler—those who really fear quantum computing wouldn’t still be holding coins today.
The announcement specifically added, "Our coins are not stored on Binance." Even without storing coins on Binance, they are still rushing to authorize selling, which means the concern is not about any single exchange but the entire custody model. The 6.3 billion incident at Binance has pushed the topic of "coins stored elsewhere are not safe" from retail investors' discussions directly into the boardroom of a publicly listed company.
I tend to think this is just a face-saving reason to reduce holdings. 5,833 BTC is not a small amount; if they really sell, they will pick the timing carefully. Maybe they are just testing the market with a leak first. BTC is now hovering around 77,400, fluctuating between 76,265 and 78,088 in 24 hours, with a fee rate of 0.01%, and holdings worth 26.5 billion USD. The sentiment hasn’t reached a panic sell stage yet, but the faith of the coin hoarders has indeed loosened.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 The following views are based on my personal analysis of Bitcoin and the behavior of major whales. Many people have been following my market outlook, so I want to share an update on my current position and expectations. Previously, I believed the $78,000 level would be difficult to break. Price action largely supported that view, with BTC staying above $79,000 until the black swan event triggered a sharp breakdown. To manage risk, I closed two-thirds of my long positions around $76,000, preparinIf someone had told me in advance that the world’s largest centralized exchange would face a security incident involving more than $6 billion, I would have expected a much sharper sell-off in BTC. But the actual market reaction has been relatively limited, with Bitcoin falling only around 3%. Considering the scale of this negative news, the market’s resilience is worth paying attention to. Could this be a sign that selling pressure is weakening and the market bottom is getting closer? It’s too eA Nasdaq-listed company holds 5,833 bitcoins, and its board has just given it permission: to sell or to pledge them. This batch of coins is worth about $449 million. The news is quiet, but it brings an old question to the forefront—are the coins held by listed companies a long-term belief or inventory that can be liquidated at any time?
First, look at the cost. Most of these 5,833 coins come from a transaction in March 2025, when 5,000 coins were bought for $158.1 million, at $31,600 each. The greater the unrealized profit, the lower the psychological threshold to sell.
Next, consider the wording: sell or pledge. Selling adds supply to the spot market; pledging means exchanging $BTC for cash, with the coins still on the books but locked under the risk control terms of the funding party. One reduces holdings, the other increases leverage.
One detail worth noting: the company specifically stated that the bitcoins are not stored on Binance. No need to overinterpret, but where custody is held nowadays is a statement that must be proactively disclosed.
The decision rests with one person—CEO Weihong Liu, who determines the timing, price, and scale. The authorization is effective but no timetable has been given. The market fears not a definite selling pressure, but the "anytime possible" factor.
A question remains: as more and more listed companies have $BTC on their books that can be sold or pledged, price discovery gains an additional variable—not miner costs, not ETF creations/redemptions, but when a company's cash flow starts to tighten.#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
Who would have thought that the previously outstanding performer, Brother 800, has seen his account shrink from tens of millions of USD to just over six million USD. Yesterday was his darkest moment, losing 6 million USD in a single day, with his US stock account dropping as much as 9%, currently showing an overall unrealized loss of over 30%.
Last night, his performance was still visible:
$SNDK 1377 with a profit of over 30,000 USD, cost 1223;
$SOXL 108 with a profit of over 300,000 USD, cost 80.61;
$SKHY 157.12 with a profit close to 50,000 USD, cost 134.62.
#SanDisk
Q1 revenue surged 378% year-over-year, Q2 guidance is very strong, and the market was optimistic before the earnings report, with many waiting for a takeoff upon release.
Unexpectedly, the wallet incident black swan struck, dragging down global risk assets and causing a stampede in the semiconductor sector.
Retail investors’ expectations are clear cards in front of big money; no matter how good the earnings report is, it can’t withstand systemic panic and directly turns into a selling excuse.
It’s not that individual fundamentals are problematic now, but market risk appetite has been crushed, with negative factors piling up. Just when you think it’s hit bottom, there’s still a deeper mid-mountain level below.
Brother 800’s battle also highlights the harsh reality of high leverage and heavy positions: profits come fast, and drawdowns are equally ruthless. No matter how good past performance was, it’s hard to withstand a black swan stampede.
At this stage, controlling your hands is the priority—stay out of the market and watch, wait for panic to subside and the sector to stabilize before looking for opportunities. Don’t rush to catch a falling knife; patience is far more valuable than position size. $BTC $ETH $SOL Brothers, I just saw the breaking news that the Iranian Foreign Minister called for ending the war on all fronts. As someone who has been closely watching the market, here are my honest thoughts.
This is definitely a positive sentiment factor. Previously, whenever there was conflict in the Middle East, oil prices soared, and large funds rushed to safe havens, causing our crypto market to get hammered. Now that a ceasefire signal has emerged, risk aversion cools down, which is definitely good for risk assets.
But personally, I think you must not blindly rush in just because of this news!
As you can see, Bitcoin’s daily chart just hit a deep pit, with billions of dollars liquidated and over 200,000 people forced out of their positions. This is a "major blow"; the resistance between 80,000 and 82,000 is full of trapped positions, and even a slight rise will make those holders rush to exit.
My next plan is simple:
This news will likely trigger an oversold rebound to test the 80,000 resistance level. But I will be closely watching the volume; if the rebound lacks volume, it will probably retest the bottom again to consolidate. $BTC $ETH $SOL Saturday night market is unusually quiet, $BTC around 77,550, Binance spot up 0.3% in 24h; $ETH at 2,249, up 0.8% in 24h, slightly stronger than BTC.
Liquidations have basically stopped. According to TRdesk statistics at 20:40 Beijing time, BTC liquidations across the network in the last 4 hours were only $970,000, $5.4 million in 12 hours, while ETH liquidations in 4 hours reached $1.8 million, even more than BTC.
On OKX, BTC funding rate is +0.01%, ETH is still -0.0104%, shorts keep paying but refuse to leave; BTC long-short account ratio is 2.69, ETH 2.57, both slightly lower than this afternoon.
My view is that such a weekend market with stable prices and no leverage liquidations is often accumulating for a big move. In MMTC's model, there are about 30 million long positions held below 75,400, just over 2% away from the current price. $ETH Ethereum Market Daily｜10.30
Anyway, I currently believe it is in a phase of bottoming out. I still think the bull market is coming, so I have already put in my position. Keep it up, everyone 🤓🤓🤓
Market: $ETH current price around 2220–2236 USDT, down 3.2%–4.0% in 24 hours.
Technical: Support at 2200, 2175; a valid break below opens downside space; resistance at 2254–2260, further at 2280, 2330. 4-hour MACD bearish continues, DIF below zero line; RSI about 28, oversold but no bullish divergence. Price runs below short-term moving averages, with layered moving average resistance.
Funds and Contracts: Spot ETF net outflow about 1.32–1.35 billion USD this month, single-day outflow of 105 million USD on October 29, net outflow for 4 consecutive days, BlackRock ETHA outflow leads at 71.68 million USD. Funding rate about -0.004%, bearish sentiment dominant;
On-chain Risk: A certain whale has closed 36,500 ETH longs, losing over 38 million USD, remaining 56,700 ETH liquidation prices concentrated at 2122, 2130 USD, forming near-term downside reference.
Strategy: The cost-effectiveness of chasing shorts at oversold levels decreases; spot support zone at 2175–2200, if stabilized, can lightly test positions; if breaking below 2175, wait for 2120–2130 liquidation zone to reassess.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 #OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz join forces to promote perpetual contracts entering the US compliant market: The positive news is just the surface, the real game is the core
The NYSE parent company ICE, together with OKX and Trade.xyz, is attempting to incorporate the Hyperliquid perpetual contract system into the US CFTC regulatory framework, enabling 7×24 continuous trading across crypto, US stocks, commodities, and forex. This move is not only the crypto industry's pursuit of a compliance entry ticket but also the first time traditional Wall Street directly faces the impact of on-chain transparent trading paradigms.
Once the news broke, market sentiment led the way: HYPE surged 13% on the positive news, then oscillated downward, with sentiment premium quickly realized. More critical than the market pullback is the sharp skepticism raised by institutional circles. DRW founder Don Wilson's six questions pierced the core contradictions of this cooperation: On-chain positions and transactions are fully public and transparent, which is fair to retail investors but leaves institutions exposed without cover; can the priority fee queue-jumping mechanism pass regulatory compliance? After connecting offshore and onshore order books, how should risk boundaries and regulatory responsibilities be defined?
This is not a simple technical implementation disagreement but a collision of two underlying trading logics.
Traditional institutions are accustomed to dark pools, hidden orders, and position confidentiality; the native on-chain logic is that everything is verifiable and transparent. What retail investors yearn for as open fairness, in the eyes of market-making whales, equals running naked without any cover. On one side is the native on-chain transparency faith, on the other is the information asymmetry advantage that Wall Street institutions rely on for survival, both $OKB $HYPE 💥Binance has replenished the funds, but there is one risk that can never be covered
The hacker still holds
more than 400,000 ETH
more than 18,000 BTC
The total scale of this theft is 6.3 billion
3 billion frozen on-chain
Most of the frozen assets are USDT and USDC
Stablecoin issuers can lock them with one click
But BTC and ETH cannot be frozen
These chips are still in the hacker's hands
Worth more than 2 billion USD
This is the Damocles sword hanging over this round of rebound
In the short term, I still expect a rebound
Two core logics:
First, Binance has covered most of the gap
The remaining funds are being acquired on and off the exchange, which itself is buying pressure
Second, the withdrawal peak is concentrated on Sunday afternoon
As long as there is no run or order backlog
Proof of reserves is delivered on time
The wrong kill repair market can come out
The hacker's chips represent a medium-term risk
The volume is too large to be dumped all at once
If dumped too fast, they can't sell at a good price themselves
They can only sell in batches, slowly, finding off-exchange buyers
It's a slow grind, not a one-time crash
ETH accounts for the highest proportion of stolen assets
So it fell harder than BTC before
The rebound elasticity will also be greater
Keep holding long positions, stop loss but do not exit
Focus on Sunday withdrawal situation
How far do you think the rebound can go if Sunday withdrawals proceed smoothly?
Just market observation, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 $OKB OKX keeps hyping the X Layer public chain ecosystem every day, the framework is quite lively, but the blood vessels are cut off.
Just look at the mechanism, the on-chain Gas revenue doesn't flow back to OKB at all, the original value capture of the token has been actively removed.
Look at this daily chart, the price is tightly pressed around 109 by various moving averages. The single-day trading volume has shrunk pitifully, the order book is completely unmanaged.
No fundamental support, market makers are playing dead, just a little retail stop-loss orders can trigger an endless downward drift.
#OKB
$OKB
👇#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 ！$SOL #OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz join forces to promote perpetual contracts entering the compliant US market $BTC
SOL current price 95.8, BTC hovering at 77595. Ignore that small dip; the key is to see how the 92.25 gap is filled.
In terms of trend, on October 30th it dropped to 92.25, rebounded to 98.54, then fell back to 93.51. A typical pattern of higher lows and lower highs.
The most critical anomaly is in the data: open interest rose by 5.45% during the same period, but the price only rebounded 3.88%. Leverage is moving faster than price, indicating someone is adding leverage at the low to catch the dip, but there is a lack of fresh spot money to support it. If money had come in, volatility would have been suppressed.
Focus on these two levels:
• Upward: hold above 96.99, then look to 98.54.
• Downward: break below 92.25, and this batch of newly leveraged positions will become the new trapped holders. #Reddit plunged nearly 30%, AI search diversion impact becomes evident
The leader has something to say
Reddit plummeted 29.22% last night, marking the largest single-day drop since its IPO. Q3 revenue was actually decent, up 53% year-over-year, but daily active users remained flat quarter-over-quarter, with US daily active users down 2%. The Q4 revenue guidance midpoint also fell short of expectations. The CEO himself admitted that Google's AI search might cause referral traffic to decline, with an average weekly drop of over 1 million visits in October.
I believe this is a typical example of AI impacting the traditional internet business model. The comments section hits the mark: under the pressure of AI search diversion, if Reddit cannot improve user growth, advertising revenue simply won't hold up. Now everyone uses AI to get answers directly—who still clicks links to view web pages? Traffic entry points are being hijacked by AI, and this is the core logic behind Reddit's plunge.
Last night, the global market was indiscriminately bloodied; the Nasdaq plummeted, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashed 7.2%, even gold and silver fell, and Bitcoin directly dropped below 77,000. In the face of a liquidity crisis, whether tech stocks or safe-haven assets, all are treated as ATMs.
The market is extremely fragile now. Bitcoin is grinding below 77,000, watching to see if it can reclaim 80,000. If it can't hold, expect deeper corrections, with resistance between 84,000 and 85,000. Do not chase the rally or sell in panic; set your orders with proper stop losses.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SOL On Saturday night, BTC stayed flat at 77000, but the altcoins started partying.
LSK surged 34%, WET rose 19%, STX went up 14%, and PENDLE also gained 10 points, all leading the gainers list, a sea of red.
But if you look closely at this list, it's interesting — all old-timers. LSK is an old public chain from 2016, STX is a Bitcoin layer two, PENDLE is a DeFi veteran, no new faces, no new stories.
So don't rush to shout that altcoin season is back. This isn't a season, it's guerrilla warfare. BTC is consolidating, US stocks are having earnings disasters again — Intel down 30%, Reddit down 30%. With nowhere else to go, funds are diving into these deeply dropped, small-cap old coins, pumping them briefly and then leaving.
In this market, the winners are the fast runners. If you treat it as value investing and hold on, chances are you'll be riding a roller coaster again.
My attitude: watching the show is fine, small bets are okay, but don't mistake guerrilla tactics for a full-scale attack. If there really is an altcoin season, BTC will have to stand firm first.
Which one did you catch today?
#BTC持续震荡，后续走势受多重因素影响 $BTC $STX $PENDLE #US stocks and gold & silver plunge simultaneously, safe-haven funds diverge
On that Friday when US stocks and gold & silver both fell, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $643 million in one day. The $441 million inflow over the first four days of this week was completely withdrawn in a single day.
This room is asking where the safe-haven money went. At least this week, it didn't flow into BTC ETFs. This is the largest single-day outflow in over half a month on the Farside chart, with BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC accounting for nearly 70%.
ETH needs to be analyzed separately. Spot ETFs have had daily net outflows this week, totaling about $431 million, which I calculated myself from the chart. BlackRock ETHA alone had an outflow of $391 million, with no net inflow on any of the past 15 trading days; meanwhile, Fidelity FETH actually had a net inflow of about $63 million during the same week.
The same asset, but the two largest issuers are moving in opposite directions. Focusing only on the total number can be misleading; breaking it down by each fund reveals who is actually withdrawing.
The next data will be released after US stock market close on Monday. If ETHA shows a net inflow on any day next week, I will have to revise this statement.🩸 81,000 liquidations, $327 million, BTC only rose 0.12%.
Price didn't move, but money was wiped out.
I said it would go down this afternoon, but it moved sideways by 85 dollars — I got the direction wrong.
But 77,900 wasn't taken, so this isn't a win for me either.
The structure changed: 73.8% long positions in 24 hours, 68.8% short positions in the last 4 hours.
Shorts chasing above 77,000 got liquidated in a round.
Don't treat it as buying pressure: 3.27 million liquidated in 1 hour, accounting for 1.0% of 24 hours.
28.26 million in 12 hours, accounting for 8.6% — liquidations basically stalled.
Trading volume shrank 58.29% to 146.7 billion, open interest down 0.03%, no new money.
Funding rate is more straightforward: three consecutive settlements capped at 0.01000% benchmark, but premium is -0.0239%.
Paying full rent, still at a discount — this is holding, not grabbing.
On Friday, US stocks, gold, and silver all fell together, NVDA -1.40%, no money flowed into crypto either.
Judgment: biased downward. Both ends of 77,000–77,700 have been liquidated once, the rebound is short covering.
Before 08:00 tomorrow morning, retest 76,265; invalidation line is 1H close above 78,400.
Contrary evidence: lows have been rising all the way 76,265→77,065→77,316, ETH is still stronger than BTC.
When liquidations stall, the most expensive thing is not direction, but time.
Is this a shakeout, or is no one stepping in?
Not investment advice.
$BTC #USStocksAndGoldSilverFallTogether, risk-off funds flow diverges#StrategyQ3 net profit hits a record high for a single quarter, with significant contributions from digital asset earnings
"Strategy nets 19.53 billion USD"
Strategy released its Q3 report, with single-quarter net profit soaring to $19.53 billion, setting a new record.
The old software business revenue was only $125.4 million, down 3% year-on-year. The massive profit mainly comes from holding Bitcoin, which brought in $20.91 billion in earnings.
The main business barely makes a dent. Bitcoin dropped 5.12% on October 30, so how the Q4 report will look depends entirely on market performance. $BTC SOL
SOL spot ETF capital continues to bleed, with a single-day net outflow of $10.742 million on October 30. Bitwise BSOL accounts for the majority with an outflow of $9.2561 million, reducing cumulative net inflows to $1.469 billion, and total net asset value at $1.399 billion. Technically, SOL has fallen steadily from above 102, hitting a low of 92.34, close to Binance's 92.25. After breaking the 100 mark, it has yet to find a new foothold. On-chain signals show divergence: new wallets withdrew 68,773 SOL (about $6.65 million) from exchanges. Withdrawals during the decline suggest either long-term holding or short-term non-return. In contracts, the funding rate remains a positive 0.01%, with open interest at 3.41 million tokens, approximately $321 million. This drop is not driven by liquidation cascades but by spot selling, while longs are still willing to pay funding fees to maintain positions. Current price is about 95.2, having just tested the 92 area once; whether it holds is key in the short term. Resistance above lies at 98-100, previously psychological support turned resistance, and stronger resistance at 103-105; immediate support is at 92-93, with a break potentially targeting the 88-90 range. During panic sell-offs, chasing highs yields poor risk-reward; it is better to rely on light short positions near resistance and quick trades on strong support retests.$LSK Observation: The chain shutdown day has arrived, and LSK is forced to top the gainers list like a roller coaster
OKEx spot LSK is currently at 0.2774, surging about 33% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of approximately 3.45 million USDT, directly taking the top spot on the gainers list
The hard news comes from the official side: Lisk confirmed that on October 31, the Lisk Chain will be shut down, on-chain assets must be bridged out, and there will be a one-time burn of 100 million tokens, reducing the supply from 400 million to 300 million
The market looks good, but this wave seems more like a forced squeeze and narrative rotation before the deadline; the fundamentals have not suddenly improved
After the chain shutdown, LSK will turn into a loyalty points narrative, liquidity is thin to begin with, and the surge and fall can easily crush those chasing the rally
Don't get carried away with your positions; roller coasters that reach the top often move down next, for reference only. Binance has covered the funds, but there's one thing they can't cover: the hackers still hold over 400,000 $ETH and more than 18,000 $BTC.
This time, 6.3 billion was stolen, with 3 billion frozen on-chain, mostly USDT and USDC, which the issuers can lock with a single command. ETH and BTC can't be frozen, so this batch is still in the attackers' hands, worth over two billion dollars, the only looming risk over this rebound.
But in the short term, I still expect a rebound for two reasons: first, Binance has already filled 80% of the gap, and the rest is being bought both on and off the exchange, which itself is buying pressure; second, the withdrawal times all point to Sunday afternoon, so as long as there are no long queues or stuck orders, and the reserve proof is released on time, the mistaken sell-off correction will hold.
The hackers' batch is a mid-term issue. Such a large amount can't be dumped in one day; if they rush, they won't get a good price. They have to slowly launder, split, and find off-exchange buyers. So it's a slow knife, not a hammer.
ETH accounts for the majority of the stolen assets, so it fell harder than BTC in this drop, and its rebound will also be more elastic. Hold the long positions, don't remove stop-losses, and watch the Sunday withdrawals first.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 After Alphabet's earnings report was released, the stock price plummeted 12.6% in a single day, wiping out nearly $500 billion in market value. I reviewed the earnings report, and there are several figures worth looking at together. Total revenue was $127.58 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase. Google Cloud revenue was $30.71 billion, a 103% year-over-year increase. Operating profit was $40.58 billion, a 30% year-over-year increase. Looking at just these three numbers, Google's earnings report is actually quite strong. But a few other numbers are less comfortable. Net profit was $26.17 billion, a 25% year-over-year decrease. Quarterly capital expenditures were $51.36 billion. Free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion. Why would a company with operating profit still growing at 30% face such a severe sell-off? I think the problem lies in the market's judgment of Google's future ways of making money. ──── ✦ ──── First, look at Google Cloud, this business is indeed very strong. Revenue doubled year-over-year, reaching $30.7 billion, and operating profit exceeded $11.1 billion. AI computing power demand is still growing, enterprises are still purchasing cloud services, and Google's own TPU is starting to contribute more and more revenue. This shows that Google's investment in AI infrastructure has already converted part of it into actual revenue. But there is a problem here. For every additional AI computing power Google sells, it requires more servers, chips, data centers, and electricity behind the scenes. These investments all require real money. In the third quarter alone, capital...A company holding 5,833 bitcoins now wants to sell them. Guess the reason? It's not lack of money, not bearish sentiment, but fear of quantum computers.
I was stunned when I saw that sentence. The insecurity of exchanges is understandable—after all, who hasn't been educated about that in recent years. But quantum computing? That means even the holders are doubting whether the coins will still count in the future.
Of course, it might just be a nice excuse to offload the coins. In the $BTC community, reasons are always more pleasant than actions.$SOXL has dropped 60% from its peak of 169.72, mainly due to macroeconomic factors.
US Treasury yields have risen, directly hitting semiconductor valuations;
AI capital expenditure and chip fundamentals have changed, with demand slowing for Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, AMD, and equipment manufacturers;
It acts as an emotional amplifier for the semiconductor sector; when semiconductor market conditions worsen, SOXL's decline will be greater than that of Micron, Hynix, SanDisk, and others;
Funds are withdrawing from growth, holding it carries high risk, and the bottom has not yet been seen, so please be cautious about going long. A company called Next Technology Holding's board has authorized the sale or pledge of 5,833 bitcoins they hold. The reason is not that the valuation is too high, nor a lack of cash, but concerns about exchange security and quantum computing.
The announcement specifically added: these bitcoins are not stored on Binance. This is not nonsense; it means "our coins are not in others' hands." The lesson from the past few years has always been the same — having coins on the books does not mean they can be withdrawn. For a company holding coins at this level to write custody risk into the reason for reducing positions is to admit that counterparty risk has become large enough to influence their holdings.
The second reason is more long-term. Quantum computing is a theoretical threat to private key systems; it is not valid in the short term, but it has moved from technical chatter into the announcement. Once a narrative enters an official announcement, it is no longer hypothetical.
What really matters are the two words "sale" and "pledge." Sale is a real spot sell-off pressure; dumping 5,833 coins will definitely hurt short-term sentiment. Pledging coins to obtain liquidity means the coins remain on the books and can even be leveraged. Offering two opposite options in one sentence shows the company itself hasn't decided.
So the observation point is not those 5,833 coins, but whether this will become a template. $BTC holdings are increasingly concentrated in corporate treasuries. Once a second company follows and writes "security" into the reason for reducing positions, the narrative will shift from hoarding coins to risk management. At that time, the pressure on $BTC will not be a one-time sell-off but a layer of ongoing revaluation.SK Hynix and Samsung both reported record-high earnings, but why are their stock prices still falling?
It's been a long time since I last talked about SK Hynix and semiconductors, especially after Token 2049 when I was too busy to short ADRs and barely followed semiconductors. Recently, a friend who has been investing in SK Hynix came by, so I quickly picked it up and took another look.
Coincidentally, in the past two days, SK Hynix and Samsung also released their Q3 2026 earnings reports. From the overall data, AI data centers still strongly drive demand for memory chips, and both companies' revenues and profits hit quarterly record highs. SK Hynix's earnings report was especially better.
SK Hynix's Q3 revenue reached 104.62 trillion KRW, operating profit reached 83.33 trillion KRW, about 8.3% higher than the market expectation of 76.96 trillion KRW. Samsung Electronics' revenue reached 195.3 trillion KRW, operating profit reached 107.4 trillion KRW, with the semiconductor division contributing 106.5 trillion KRW in operating profit.
From a business perspective, this round of growth is not only driven by HBM needed for AI chips. SK Hynix began mass shipments of HBM4 in Q3, server DDR5 shipments increased by over 40% quarter-on-quarter, and enterprise SSD sales are also expanding. Samsung also increased sales of HBM4 and server SSDs, with the company stating that storage business revenue and profits both hit quarterly record highs.
SK Hynix's average DRAM selling price rose more than 20% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, and NAND average selling price also rose more than 20%.
SK Hynix expects that due to AI data center construction and new factory production cycles, the storage market supply shortage may continue until 2030. The company has signed long-term agreements with 14 major customers, covering more than half of the capacity for 2027 and 2028. Samsung also believes that AI-related storage demand growth in 2027 will exceed industry supply growth.
Here I have to complain a bit. I originally wanted to wait until 2027 to see if memory prices might fall back a bit, but from the current situation, that seems difficult. Buying memory now has instead become a financial investment product.
Looking at stock price trends, SK Hynix's earnings exceeded expectations, and its stock price rose 10.89% on the day of the earnings release on October 28, continuing to rise the next day. Samsung's stock price fell 4.13% after releasing detailed earnings on October 29, mainly because the semiconductor division's operating profit was slightly below analyst expectations.
Today, both companies' stock prices have fallen. The day before, Alphabet (Google) reported revenue below market expectations, and increased AI investment also raised concerns about cash flow, causing its stock price to drop 12.64%.
The market worries whether tech companies' continued heavy investment in building AI data centers can generate sufficient returns in the future. If customers slow expansion to control spending, SK Hynix and Samsung's future storage orders may also be affected. This is what I often say about capital expenditures being too high.
So overall, AI demand for HBM, server memory, and SSD remains strong, and SK Hynix and Samsung's storage businesses are indeed profitable. But investors' concerns about AI capital expenditures have spread downstream in the industry chain. It can be said that as long as the Damocles sword hanging over AI is not removed, the market will always worry that Samsung and SK Hynix's performance might become a mirage.
Reposted from PhyrexIs on-chain USD shrinking? Here's how to use 3 indicators to judge whether funds are truly leaving or just switching tracks
Recently, USDC's seven-day circulating supply shrank by about $800 million. Many people's first reaction was that it's over, funds are fleeing. But looking at just one indicator can easily lead to misjudgment—has the money really exited completely, or is it just changing form on-chain?
Sharing a set of three commonly used indicator combinations as a judgment template. Core logic:
Look at USDC for institutional sentiment, USDT for retail movements, and exchange net flow for behavioral intent. Cross-verify all three together for a reliable conclusion.
Three indicators:
① USDC seven-day net circulation (Circle redemption vs. minting)
② USDT seven-day circulation (Tether supply changes)
③ Exchange net flow (whether coins are entering or leaving)
Eight quick scenario judgments:
• USDC↓ + USDT↑ → Switching tracks, money hasn't left
• USDC↓ + USDT↓ → True withdrawal, overall contraction
• USDC↓ + USDT steady + net outflow → Redeeming USD + withdrawing to self-custody (current state)
• USDC↑ + USDT↑ + net inflow → New money entering, bullish bias
Currently, we are roughly in the "USDC shrinking + USDT steady + net outflow" range—cautious but not panic selling, the market is waiting for the Binance incident resolution.
$BTC Brothers, has Bitcoin pretty much bottomed out this time?
Bitcoin has been tossing and turning again, hitting a low of $76,152 intraday, with the 365-day moving average around $77,196, repeatedly contested by bulls and bears. Now the price has fallen back below the moving average!
This bull just lifted its head, only to be pushed down again! However, my judgment about the early stage of the bull market hasn't changed for now. The early bull market is not a straight rise; repeated pullbacks and oscillations test patience.
Currently, the upper edge of the weekly bull market support zone is around $76,565. Next, it depends on whether it can hold and quickly reclaim the 365-day moving average. Hopefully, this is just a deep squat in the early bull phase, not digging a deeper hole!
Continuing to observe, I remain optimistic about the upcoming market! $BTC Will the disaster of October 11 happen again this time? Back then, the liquidation volume of long positions was 16.8 billion, hopefully this time it’s just a bull retracement, not the bull disappearing. Keep in mind, BlackRock's IBIT currently holds 815,000 bitcoins, worth about 63 billion USD, but the vast majority of these coins are custodied by just one company, Coinbase.
The most critical issue is that BlackRock has not purchased separate insurance for IBIT’s bitcoins; meanwhile, Coinbase’s entire commercial crime insurance coverage is a meager 320 million USD (shared among all clients), and the custody agreement clearly states: the compensation limit for each cold wallet address is only 100 million USD.
The terms explicitly state that if one day Coinbase, like Binance today, is hacked through internal operations computers and tens of billions of dollars are stolen and unrecoverable, the 320 million insurance won’t even cover a fraction of the loss. The remaining gap will not be compensated by BlackRock or Coinbase, and all losses will be proportionally borne by the IBIT shareholders themselves.
In short, if you think buying an ETF means escaping the crypto world, in reality, you’re just moving your assets from Binance’s hot wallet to Coinbase’s custody pool. Even if Binance gets hacked, they can cover losses fully with their own profits and the SAFU fund, but Wall Street’s exemption clauses have long washed their hands of responsibility.Is the "zero downtime" handover a technical victory or a PR narrative? Unveiling the behind-the-scenes of Core's founding team stepping back
Core officially announced that Rich Rines and Brendon Sedo have stepped down from their core DAO positions, and the block production rights have been fully transferred to independent validators, with zero network downtime throughout the process, defining this as a decentralization milestone; however, market controversy continues to ferment: is this smooth transition proof of a mature underlying architecture, or a narrative packaging created to resolve on-chain turmoil? The timeline hides key background: this personnel and power transfer occurred after an abnormal validator block reward vulnerability and an emergency hard fork event. Previously, some validators received CORE rewards far exceeding the protocol's set amount. After the vulnerability was exposed, multiple exchanges imposed deposit and withdrawal restrictions, with South Korea's Bithumb even marking CORE as a trading warning asset. Despite the project submitting multiple rounds of explanatory materials, the risk was still deemed unresolved, and it was officially announced that CORE would be delisted on November 30, with liquidity downside looming. The project is currently under dual pressure of doubt from exchanges and the community. From a technical perspective, DAO nodes gradually exited the block production queue, switching to 31 independent validators to take over network production, with no block interruptions or downtime incidents on-chain throughout, proving that the Satoshi Plus consensus architecture has the stable operational capability for node主体 switching. The "zero downtime" itself is a verifiable technical fact. But the controversy lies in the transfer boundary: the founding core personnel only withdrew from DAO management roles and have not completely exited the project, retaining early large token stakes A net profit of $19.53 billion is not a beautiful queen promotion, but a game where software pawns are deliberately sacrificed to the opponent, completing a checkmate with $20.91 billion in digital asset income—yet on the other side of the board, Bitcoin's pawn front is retreating.
This strategy company's quarterly report starts by focusing on the king's wing of digital assets: record net profit, diluted earnings per share of $44.75, with the book's gains and losses almost entirely written by the valuation changes of Bitcoin holdings. Software revenue fell 3% year-over-year to $125.4 million, showing looseness like a central pawn; while there is still heavy firepower on the surface, the underlying pawn chain is no longer solid. A grandmaster seeing this situation would first ask not "how much was won," but "which line was exchanged for this advantage": the operating front hasn't expanded, but asset revaluation has pushed the king forward to the open line early, the profit offensive is fierce, and the rook protecting the king hasn't fully returned.
The real winners are not those who play step by step, but those who have calculated the position twenty moves ahead before placing a piece. Digital asset income is a tactical sacrifice that can tear open the opponent's defense line but also sharply increases one's own time pressure; if Bitcoin's price weakens, next quarter's profit elasticity will be like a hanging pawn in the endgame—seemingly free but actually requiring piece support for every move. The slight decline in software revenue is not fatal, but it reduces the convertible initiative in this game, effectively dragging the long game into an exchange rhythm the opponent is better at.
Looking at the linkage with tokenized US stock XCH, don't treat it as an isolated flank pawn. The main battlefield is the strategy company's Bitcoin exposure; XCH is just an external piece being pulled along: when the parent game's valuation offensive is strong, it easily follows with beautiful tactical moves; when Bitcoin retreats, its thin liquidity and quick linkage expose weaknesses on the open line first. Observing this linkage requires watching piece coordination and pressure order, not just shouting checkmate at a single price line. The financial report is a strong attack on the king's wing; XCH's volatility is the echo on the rear wing; the sharper the echo, the more unstable the pivot in the center of the board.
My judgment is simple: this is a midgame advantage gained by sacrificing pieces, not a checkmate endgame; as long as Bitcoin retreats one more step, the king on the profit statement will be exposed on the open line. #strategyq3profitsurges Valuing a company with a revenue growth rate of over 90% at a high multiple and hanging it in midair is like building a 400-meter tower on soft soil—the flashier the blueprint, the more I first check if the core tube has any cracks. The valuation question for Palantir in Q3, in my view, is not about the level of the P/E ratio but whether the structural system holds: Q2 revenue grew 90% year-over-year, and U.S. commercial revenue nearly one and a half times—that's an astonishing construction speed, but speed never equals structural safety.
Orders are the load-bearing walls, revenue is the floor slabs, profit is the concrete rebound value, and valuation is just the curtain wall area. The curtain wall can be made transparent and light only if the core tube can withstand all horizontal shear forces. The market's ultra-high expectations for Q3 are like the most adverse wind load in a wind tunnel test; if the order backlog is not thick enough, the faster the revenue growth, the easier the floor slabs are to deflect, and if profit falls short of expectations even slightly, the whole building will start to sway. Raising the full-year guidance only pushes the construction schedule forward; the real hidden work inspection depends on whether Q3 orders can be converted into repeatable node stiffness.
Tokenized U.S. stocks are not another independent building; they are an annex structure connected to the underlying assets through a corridor. When the underlying assets shake, the corridor rattles first; the linkage between Microsoft's tokenized target and Palantir's valuation is essentially a redistribution of wind pressure within the same wind field. Financial reports are just the completion drawings; orders are the foundation inspection reports; high valuation is not the original sin, insufficient structural redundancy is. My judgment is straightforward: this is not a matter of valuation level but whether the core tube can pass the load test of Q3 orders; if it fails the calculation, no matter how beautiful the curtain wall is, it is just a decorative panel hanging in the air. #palantirq3valuation Radar echoes just swept over the skies of Seattle, with the first cloud base layer lower than forecast: total revenue rose 12% year-on-year to 201.9 billion, slightly below expectations—not a clear day, but not at the level of an orange severe rain warning either. The real signal is vertical: AWS's cumulonimbus rainfall jumped from 39.9 billion to 45.984 billion in a single quarter, a 39.3% year-on-year increase, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of strengthening updrafts—this is the most intense convective outbreak in the past five years. The pressure trough is deepening, and the warm, moist transport band remains unbroken.
But as someone who has monitored sounding charts for over a decade, I pay more attention to surface runoff. Capital expenditure for the quarter was 75.9 billion, and free cash flow over the past twelve months was negative 42.4 billion—this is meteorologically described as "abundant precipitation but uncontrolled evaporation": strong vapor convergence, very high cloud tops, yet reservoir inflow is negative. To catalyze this rain, the pulses are too frequent. The cost of artificial rain enhancement is accumulating water on the books; the thicker the clouds, the steeper the thermodynamic cost of advance funding. Acceleration and hemorrhaging appear on the same isobar map, a typical strong convective structure accompanied by downburst: the faster the ascent, the larger the destructive radius of the descending airflow.
Looking downstream at the monitoring stations. $xAVGO-type targets share the same jet stream with this front, with wind shear heights consistent—the upstream cloud system strengthens, and downstream first experiences a southerly wind; however, the low-level dew point does not rise synchronously, indicating this wind is caused by dynamic uplift, not local moisture generation. Historically, this structure fears two scenarios most: one is premature convergence of upper-level divergence causing ascent to stall; the other is outflow from a surface cold pool cutting off the warm, moist channel abruptly. So far, radar has not shown echo top collapse, but a V-shaped gap has appeared in the cash flow column.
I don't guess weather from cloud maps; I only look at three things: pressure gradient, moisture flux, and surface runoff. The gradient is still increasing, moisture flux is ample, runoff is negative. Under this configuration, the forecast conclusion can only be: strong convection persists, with localized short-term heavy rainfall, and simultaneous issuance of mountain flood and urban waterlogging risk warnings, both effective simultaneously.
The updraft has not slowed for six consecutive quarters, while surface water levels have declined for seven consecutive quarters—this is not weather, this is climate. #amazonq3awsacceleratesThe hacker not only didn’t leave, but also used DeFi loans to "leverage" to the max with nuclear weapons.
Aave is now a powder keg that could explode at any moment.
The most likely scenario next is:
• The hacker keeps using borrowed ETH to sell massively.
• This causes Aave to trigger liquidations.
• The market panics and falls again, testing the 2,170 level or even lower as mentioned before.
$BTC $ETH Black swan only made a splash? BTC firmly defends 76,000, ZEC approaches previous highs, this round of bears got their faces bruised
I'm bearish, but I'm not blind. Binance's $6.3 billion security breach hit, which in the past would have triggered a chain liquidation waterfall. So what happened? BTC only dipped to 76,300 at the lowest, then quickly pulled back above 77,000 within hours; ETH bounced from 2,171 to around 2,230. This is not a crash, it's just an ordinary negative event quickly absorbed.
What bothers me most is ZEC. During market panic, it precisely caught support at 1,180, steadily pushed above 1,280, with 1,208 support holding firm, and the next target above is 1,350–1,380. Funding rates turned negative, 86% of liquidations were long positions, bears watched excitedly, but the drop didn't even create a decent pit.
I haven't closed my short positions, but I have to admit: this round of negative news can no longer move the price. If ZEC breaks through 1,306 with volume, I won't hold on. Bears aren't dead, they just need to reposition and wait.#US stocks and gold & silver fall sharply together, with risk-averse capital flows diverging The most prominent feature of this round of market action is the failure of traditional safe-haven logic: US stocks, gold, and silver all fell simultaneously. The core reason is the rise in real interest rates combined with cross-market deleveraging. Federal Reserve officials continue to signal hawkishness, raising expectations for a rate hike in December. US Treasury real yields are rising, and gold and silver, as non-yielding assets, face increased holding costs, leading to valuation pressure.
At the same time, many institutions previously held long positions in both US stocks and gold & silver. The stock market decline triggered margin calls, and since gold and silver are more liquid, they were prioritized for sale to raise cash, resulting in a "safe-haven assets sold for cash" sell-off. Silver is more elastic and typically falls more than gold, compounded by weakening industrial demand expectations.
Safe-haven capital has not disappeared but has clearly stratified: funds no longer prioritize buying gold but instead flow into interest-bearing safe assets like US dollar cash and short-term US Treasuries. This is the core of the current capital divergence.
Going forward, focus on two signals: first, when US Treasury real yields will turn; second, whether deleveraging selling pressure has fully released. In the short term, before rate hike expectations cool down, the weak pattern for gold and silver is unlikely to change. Oversold conditions may occur but sustained recovery is unlikely, so avoid blindly bottom-fishing. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC is flooded with shouts of "Extreme Fear = Entry". But those who bottomed out at the start of the extreme fear on January 21 this year still had to endure another 33% drop afterward.
Looking back at the Fear and Greed Index over the past 1000 days (from 2024/2):
✅ There were 211 days with an index ≤25, labeled as "Extreme Fear," averaging 1 day every 5 days.
✅ From January to April, out of 87 days, 82 were extreme fear days, during which BTC fell from 89,456 to 60,000.
✅ On all extreme fear days, only 59% saw higher prices 30 days later, with a median further drop of 6.9% in between.
Currently, the index is 30, not even reaching "extreme" yet.
Fear is a weather forecast, not a buy button.
Data: alternative.me Fear and Greed Index, OKX daily chart, not investment advice #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 💥Liquidity drained, leverage is all fuel, this market wave is specifically killing bottom-fishers
BTC dropped directly from 78k to 76.4k
ETH broke below 2200
SOL fell below 95
Altcoins are all wailing
The aftershocks of Binance hot wallet have not yet been digested
US core PCE at 3.1%, rate hike expectations continue to press down
US Treasury yields hold steady above 4.9%
Liquidity continues to drain
Long leverage is the main force's fuel
Looking at on-chain smart money
BTC long-short ratio still leans bullish, positions have not decreased
Retail investors are catching falling knives at 76k
ETH 4h long-short ratio above 3.0
Above 2300 is a pile of trapped positions
Below 2200 is the liquidation zone
Once broken, it’s a stampede
SOL lost the 100-dollar mark
The 99→95 plunge wiped out a large wave of chasing longs
In this market, don’t just ask if you can bottom fish right away
First think clearly: how many times leverage, where to set stop loss
Whales are all cutting losses to survive
Maji’s ETH longs floating loss 1.88 million
HYPE shorts floating loss 5 million
Retail investors all in at 100x leverage, pure money giveaway
Operation reference
• BTC: Light long trial if 76100 holds, if broken look to 74k, strictly no chasing highs
• ETH: If 2200 doesn’t hold, look to 2150, rebound 2280-2300 is escape zone, not add-on point
• SOL: Do not catch below 95, wait to hold 100 before talking reversal
Election expectations combined with macro pressure on top
The market specifically hunts the phrase: I feel it’s the bottom
Deleverage, withdraw coins to self-custody, keep cash ready
Surviving this week is the most important
Are you now watching for stabilization, or already testing positions?
Market review only, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 Whales showing off their positions, the easiest place to be deceived is here: what you copy is their previous move.
Brother Maji just closed his long Bitcoin position, then switched to 25x leverage on Ethereum, holding 2125 ETH. At the same time, he reduced his HYPE long position to 4500 tokens, with 10x leverage.
One add, one reduce, one clear — it looks like expert trading, but the overall position profit is only 0.89%.
That 0.89% is after applying 25x leverage. If followers copied his screenshot from yesterday, they’re probably already asking in the group whether to stop loss today.Binance was hacked for 6.3 billion dollars. I hadn't even finished my instant noodles before I was already thinking there would be an FTX-style waterfall crash... But in the end, Bitcoin only dropped about 2% from the incident until now, and today it climbed back above 77,000.
To be clear, this time it was Binance's own hot wallet that got stolen from; Bitcoin itself is totally fine. They directly covered over 6.3 billion out of pocket, and about 3 billion of the stolen funds have already been frozen. Back during FTX, the money was really gone, and the price dropped 26%, which is a completely different situation.
But don't celebrate too early. In the last 24 hours, 570 million dollars worth of positions were liquidated across the entire network, 70% of which were long positions. Also, a bunch of short-term traders have been cutting losses and transferring over 36,000 BTC to exchanges in one day, which means they can't hold on and are about to run. Bitcoin has already dropped over 8 points in October, and it's very likely to be another red October.
My view: The panic selling wave is basically over, but the hackers still hold 18,000 BTC untouched, spread across 19 addresses. The day they start moving those coins out will be the next spike. The 200-day moving average is around 73,000; if it really breaks below that, I'll honestly admit defeat.
Anyway, my small capital can't handle sharp spikes, so I'll be lightly positioned watching the show these days, waiting for the hackers to make the first move.
$BTC