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#Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve? no#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
$SNDK SanDisk exceeds expectations, but don't rush to extrapolate linearly
First, SanDisk's latest quarter revenue and guidance both exceeded expectations. Q2 revenue guidance is $12.2–12.6 billion, higher than the market expectation of $12.1 billion. Data center demand combined with tight storage supply continues to support prices.
SanDisk projects the NAND market size to exceed $300 billion by 2026 and approach $500 billion by 2027.
Secondly, it is worth noting that the "stock-included" AI capital expenditure is declining. RBC estimates that excluding memory costs, the capital expenditure growth rate of major players will fall from 80% in 2026 to about 40%, because storage price increases account for about 45% of the total capital expenditure growth.
Of Microsoft's $190 billion capital expenditure, about $25 billion is due to memory price increases and does not bring additional computing power. This means the inference "strong AI capital expenditure → linearly strong storage demand" has a gap: the more expensive storage is, the less effective computing power cloud providers get per unit of capital expenditure, which may marginally backfire on subsequent demand strength.
However, relatively better is SanDisk's NBM long-term contracts: 8 agreements guarantee revenue of $93.9 billion, with a weighted average term of over four years. In fiscal 2027, long-term contract shipments will account for over 50%.
Long-term agreements reduce the volatility of traditional cycles, but beware of risks! It's almost 8:30 PM, and two major data points are coming out together: initial jobless claims plus the September core PCE.
The expected initial claims are between 198,000 and 200,000, with the previous value at 194,000, and the core PCE month-over-month at 0.3%.
As long as the employment data is around 200,000, it won't cause a big stir; tonight, the real market mover will be the PCE.
If the core PCE is equal to or above 0.3, inflation stickiness is confirmed, supporting expectations for a rateHYPE is showing strong bullish momentum! After dropping to $HYPE 74.465, buyers pushed the price toward $HYPE 97.088 with a major volume spike.
📈 Support: $HYPE 84–$80
🎯 Resistance: $92–$97
Bullish Outlook: A strong move above $97 could open the door to further gains.
Bearish Risk: Failure to hold $84 could bring a pullback. October 30
Gold Morning
Core Influencing Factors Analysis
Last night at 20:30, the core PCE and Q3 GDP data were released simultaneously. Core PCE rose year-on-year to 3.1%, combined with GDP growth exceeding expectations, confirming both inflation stickiness and economic resilience. CME interest rate futures show a sharp rise in December rate hike expectations, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened, putting pressure on gold prices to fall back, interrupting the bulls' rebound rhythm.
The Federal Reserve decision in the early morning was hawkish itself, with two members supporting a rate hike, and Waller keeping the December rate hike option open. Last night's PCE data further confirmed inflation concerns, bearish for gold prices.
Middle East geopolitical tensions remain volatile; localized friction news will bring short-term safe-haven pulses, but current rate expectations are the dominant theme. Safe-haven buying strength is limited, making it difficult to reverse the short-term pressure pattern.
Technical Analysis
4-hour chart: After continuous decline, gold shows short-term oversold signs, with a need for a slight rebound correction, but this is a corrective rebound, not a reversal, with multiple layers of resistance above suppressing it.
Strategy: Buy around 4005-3990, stop loss at 3975, targets at 4040-4070-4100
Disclaimer: Investment involves risks, enter the market cautiously
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $XAU 40U Challenge: A Real Trading Article on 4 Million U
4th Post.
First, a report: the total account balance is 405U.
Last post showed 431U.
On October 22, during trading, a loss of 96U was incurred,
then this week Orbit sent 70U worth of pork rice.
Total net income is negative 26U
431 - 26 = 405U.
Behind the changes in funds, there are countless day-and-night market trading fluctuations.
The 96U loss mainly came from one core trade, which was buying ETH at the price of 2493 on October 22, with more than 5x leverage.
Making such a mistake, I can only slap myself a few times. Now I know the mistake is not about execution but about cognition.
Allow me to talk about the cognitive aspect, because understanding this level has made me truly strong.
First: ETH, after dropping to 2313, formed the first bottom consolidation range, 2313–2525.
Within this range, on October 22, without any momentum, ETH rebounded up to 2529 at most. Recklessly going long here was naturally like throwing meat buns at a dog.
In a downtrend, a consolidation continuation is a resistance level to continue shorting!!
Second, after ETH fell from 2529 to 2281, it established a narrower consolidation range from 2281 to 2370.
This is still a downtrend consolidation continuation. Although you can't short casually, since there was no clear breakout at 2370, you must stay flat.ENA dropped 10.2% in the 4 o'clock hour and continued to explore lower with increased volume at 6 o'clock. OKEx spot closed the 4 o'clock hourly candle from 0.20951 to 0.18807, with a trading volume of $4.4777 million, about 17.5 times that of the previous hour. It closed at 0.18574 at 5 o'clock and 0.17575 at 6 o'clock; the trading volume at 6 o'clock increased from $1.9743 million in the previous hour to $2.358 million.
My judgment is that the sell-off at 4 o'clock is not over yet. At 8:08, the quote was 0.17239, down about 17.8% in 24 hours. At the same time, buy orders within 1% of the price were about $253,000, and sell orders about $94,000. The order book is not overly bearish, but orders can be withdrawn at any time, so this snapshot alone cannot confirm a bottom.
If subsequent hourly lows do not move lower and trading volume decreases, I will reassess. As long as the price continues to make new lows, a single large-volume bearish candle is not enough to prove that selling pressure has been exhausted.
$ENA The Fed paused. The vote said otherwise. 10–2, and both dissenters wanted a hike. Markets now price 84% odds of at least a 25bp hike in December. That’s not a dovish pause, it’s a hawkish one with a countdown. $BTC lost 80K and closed at 78K, DXY is holding above its rising MAs, and key support 76,827 is now 1.5% away. Last week’s question was “will they pause?” The real one was always “what comes after?’’ NFA#OKX、ICE and Trade.xyz join forces to promote perpetual contracts entering the compliant US market $OKB
The core macro-level question is not "Will perpetual contracts become compliant?" but rather "Who provides a compliant container for the existing offshore liquidity, and who controls this container?"
ICE uses capital to buy traffic, uses clearing licenses as containers, and protects institutional credit through physical segregation, with a clear direction; however, the container ultimately holds a "discounted version" product with compressed leverage and strict KYC filtering. The actual scale of traffic willing to migrate from offshore still depends on whether the gap between approval progress and product experience can be accepted by the market.Everyone is waiting for the Fed's "rate cut to save the market," but tonight's data is sending notes in the opposite direction: Tokyo's CPI in October rose 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations; the Bank of Canada raised rates for the first time in three years; the ECB held steady but put a December rate hike on the table.
One or two might be noise, but strung together they form the trend—the global interest rate baton shows no sign of turning dovish. The World Bank even predicts commodity prices will rise another 23% next year.
Once inflation sticks, it’s more patient than anyone. Those hoping a single rate cut will lift $BTC and all risk assets back to the sky should first check if the bond market agrees.I'll break down this OKX liquidation map for you guys. The current price is 78220.
First, look at the densest orange bars (100x leverage) — from 79400 to 80000, with the highest bar reaching 25 million. This indicates that if BTC rebounds above 79400, it will first trigger a batch of long positions bottom-fishing there.
Below, from 76700 to 77300, there is a cluster of yellow bars (50x leverage), representing another layer of long positions. Further down near 75000 are long positions at 25x leverage.
Now look at the two cumulative lines: the red line (long position liquidations) has dropped steadily from around 70000 to nearly zero, while the green line (short position liquidations) has climbed from 78000 up to 550 million.
What does this mean? Long positions below 78000 have been fully liquidated, but new longs have piled up above 78000 — retail traders caught bottom-fishing near 79000.
The current price of 78220 is right between these two layers of long positions.
My view on the short-term trend: first a rebound to around 79400 to liquidate some longs, then a drop to 76700 to liquidate another batch of longs. The market maker sweeps back and forth like this, clearing out all the leverage above and below.
Avoid opening positions at 78000, as both sides could be swept. Wait for the price to reach 79400 or 76700 before making a move.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH $ZEC A signal that was dismissed as just news about non-ferrous metals is worth a closer look: copper prices on the London Metal Exchange have turned down from a two-week high, and JPMorgan directly points out that investors are starting to doubt whether AI data centers really need that much copper.
Where's the weight? Previously, "Can AI really make money" was only being digested by tech stocks themselves, with Google's cash burn accelerating and getting hit -10%. Now even industrial metals are starting to price in this doubt.
Bubbles never burst from the center; they crack first at the edges you think are unrelated. If risk appetite really shifts, assets like $BTC will not be absent.$ETH ETH Monthly Close Battle: Life-or-Death Speed Under Triple Selling Pressure
On the last trading day of October, ETH was priced at $2264, down about 4% in 24 hours.
In the past 24 hours, ETH contract liquidations amounted to approximately $71.79 million, with longs accounting for 55%, about $39.82 million, and Binance alone taking 52.5% of the liquidation share.
Selling pressure is squeezed from three directions simultaneously: On the ETF side, a net outflow of about $1.225 billion accumulated in October, bleeding for four consecutive weeks, with BlackRock ETHA alone bearing 93% of redemptions.
On-chain, early ICO whales continue transferring ETH to exchanges for cashing out, and the Ethereum Foundation also sold 2,785 ETH for stablecoins via the CoW protocol on October 26.
On the other hand, the staked locked volume has surpassed 43.8 million ETH, accounting for 33% of the total supply, with the queue ratio for entry and exit about 20:1.
There is a new variable today—Binance is suspected to have suffered the largest hacker attack in history, with over $5.5 billion in assets leaked, and hackers are frantically converting stablecoins into ETH.
Triple selling pressure hits a structural lock-up wall, making the month-end close inevitably turbulent. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 【$BTC's "Foggy Market"】
The Federal Reserve held steady this time, as the market had long expected. What really leaves people puzzled is Wash's statement: rate hike? No direct answer; are the rates appropriate? "No conclusion yet"; criticism from Trump? "No response." A Tai Chi routine flowing smoothly ┓(´∀`)┏
For BTC, bad news isn't necessarily the most tormenting; "uncertainty" is the hardest to bear. After the speech, Bitcoin briefly touched $81,000, more like a boot hanging in the air, not yet landed—people exhale first, rather than seeing a substantial positive.
Without direction, funds find it hard to bet on liquidity tightening or easing, and risk appetite is suppressed. If the market interprets this as a "hawkish pause," BTC may oscillate repeatedly between $79,000 and $83,000; unless a dovish signal emerges later, it might try $82,000 again. Before signals become clear, it's likely to grind within the range, so don't rush to chase a one-sided move (￣▽￣)~*
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Regulation of stablecoins in the US and Canada is advancing, community banks have been invited to participate, and expectations for compliant funds entering the market are heating up. However, DOT failed to capitalize on this momentum, dragging the broader market down. I judge that the short-term trend is still dominated by bears searching for a bottom. Looking at the market, the price has been continuously sliding down from the high of 1.0239, dropping 9.8% in 24 hours to 0.9096, having retraced 23.34% from the 4-hour high, closely approaching the 0.889 low. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both moving downward in sync; trading volume is 30.676 million, funding rate is -0.016%, open interest is 8.717 million, indicating strong bearish sentiment. However, the top 10 bids total 13,000 against 7,213 asks, with a buy-sell ratio of 1.84, showing quietly strengthening support at low levels. For trading, one can lightly go long at 0.9023 with a stop loss at 0.8786 and a target of 0.9478, aiming to catch a rebound from oversold conditions; if the rebound is blocked at 0.9532, then reverse to short with a stop loss at 0.9725 and a target of 0.9017. Position size should not exceed 20%, and exit decisively if stop loss is hit.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$DOT#美加稳定币监管推进，社区银行获邀入场
#美加稳定币监管推进，社区银行获邀入场
$DOT #Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC Book Gains Rebound Sharply
Let me break it down for you in advance: Bitcoin rose about 43% in Q3, Strategy revalued at fair value, expecting to recognize approximately $20.9 billion in unrealized digital asset gains, ending four consecutive quarters of losses.
But don't get carried away—this money is "paper wealth," no coins sold, no cash flow in, and it also brings a $18.8 billion deferred income tax disturbance. The real focus is not on the income statement, but on: holding 848,000 coins, increased cash reserves, repurchasing STRC to reduce leverage, making the balance sheet stronger than the book gains.
Mid-term logic: Earnings are positive but easy to "buy the rumor, sell the fact," so MSTR may spike and then fall in the short term. But the whale's balance sheet is becoming more stable, which is a long-term anchor for $BTC.
$ETH
$SOL This morning I said $BTC was hovering around eighty thousand all day, with volume as thin as if the whole market was holding its breath, and I reminded once: don't rush to read "can't fall" as a sign of a rebound.
Today we got the answer. It's not bouncing up, but breaking down, directly falling below eighty thousand to touch seventy-eight thousand, with Ethereum and SOL dropping even harder. Notice the volume, it's still dry. This isn't a pit caused by panic selling, it's simply no one is buying. The most expensive illusion in a slow decline is mistaking "no selling pressure" for "support."
Those who are empty-handed watching the waterfall should sleep well tonight. Which side are you holding?$CORE
BlockBeats news, on October 30, on-chain analyst Andy disclosed that hackers suspected in the Binance attack are exchanging UNI for ETH through Uniswap.
Among the 7.02 million UNI previously transferred into the same wallet, 3.86 million have been sold through 23 transactions. Currently, the wallet holds 10,002 ETH, worth about 22.8 million USD, with 3.16 million UNI remaining to be sold.#Chiến lược dự báo báo cáo tài chính: Lợi nhuận trên sổ sách của BTC tăng mạnh trở lại Bitcoin has fallen below $80,000, currently priced at $77,866, down 4.2% in 24 hours — ETFs are still net buyers, but the coin price keeps dropping.
Yesterday's low of $79,600 has already been broken, and $80,000 has flipped from support to resistance.
Ethereum dropped to $2,250, down 4.6%, and Solana is even worse, falling below $100, currently at $95.62, down 6.6%.
Interestingly, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $137 million on October 28, marking the third consecutive day of capital inflow, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $136 million.
Long-term money is buying, short-term money is running, making the situation quite twisted.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve held steady but had two dissenters advocating for a rate hike, combined with Alphabet's earnings plunge dragging down tech stocks, risk assets are all taking a hit.
I think this round of decline is not about fundamentals, but about market nerves.
ETF inflows indicate some are buying in batches, but the pace of buying can't keep up with panic selling. Until $80,000 is reclaimed, it's too early to talk about a reversal.
The invalidation condition is clear: if the daily chart recovers $80,000, my judgment is void.
Which side do you choose: is this a good time to bottom-fish, or should you watch the show after $80,000 is lost?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Bitcoin #ETFHolding position does not mean turning dovish, BTC surged then pulled back, December is the main focus
The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate at 3.75%—4.00%, but this is not a signal of easing. The vote was 10:2, with two members advocating an immediate 25 basis point hike; the statement continued to emphasize a strong economy and elevated inflation, with market expectations for a rate hike in December rising to about 86%.
Macro performance is mixed: the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the dollar briefly fell about 0.2%, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5.05%, and WTI crude oil is close to $99.90. The stock market holding up does not mean liquidity is easing; high interest rates and energy inflation pressures remain.
$BTC peaked at $81,674, then pulled back to around $80,446. Short-term support is still seen at $80,000, with resistance between $81,600—$82,000. Without volume to firmly hold above, the rebound cannot yet be considered a breakout.
$ETH returned to around $2,328, with a larger decline than BTC, showing weaker support. Resistance is first seen at $2,350—$2,380; if it falls below $2,300 again, it may continue to test previous lows.
This pause has long been priced in; December is the main event. Both BTC and ETH are currently viewed as rebounding, no chasing longs, remain cautious.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC $ETH $BNB
678.13, the lowest price BNB hit last night after crashing, down nearly 8% in 24 hours, now barely climbing back to 699.
Their own hot wallet got hacked, so their platform coin dropped first—makes sense logically. CZ said losses might be slightly over $1 billion and that they will fully cover it. Meanwhile, all withdrawals are suspended until the environment is confirmed safe. The frozen funds have been verified at $2.54 billion. At this point, the market votes with its feet first.
Wintermute came out saying their exposure on Binance is less than 20%, Bybit said they are willing to provide support, and Ripple and WLFI are helping freeze funds. The whole industry is cleaning up Binance’s mess this time, which is quite rare.
Interestingly, the "withdrawal suspension" move is actually the most reassuring thing I’ve seen today. In the past, incidents were hidden, but this time they directly say the environment is unsafe and will reopen after confirmation—better than pretending nothing happened.
The price of platform coins is inherently tied to the exchange’s credibility. Whether the price can recover after this drop depends not on the candlestick chart but on whether the payouts are clean and whether they dare to fully cover.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC market crash this round, the trigger seems to be this Binance incident. Around 3.3 billion USD flowed out from two hot wallets within 40 minutes at midnight, BNB once dropped nearly 9%, BTC fell below 79,000, and 630 million USD liquidated in 1 hour.
About 1.8 billion USD of USDC and USDT were frozen, but ETH couldn't be frozen. Binance is still investigating; the root cause and final losses are not yet determined.
Don't click on the emergency asset migration or compensation claim links that appear next; they are basically phishing.Last night’s cut hit my spot and 2x coin-margined long positions hard
Last night DOGE dropped from 0.0806 straight down to 0.0774. I was watching the market closely; my spot base position didn’t move, nor did my 2x coin-margined longs. 0.0775 is my defensive line: hourly volume is increasing, but both short-term and long-term trends are weak. Whether it can quickly recover after dipping will determine if this line is a real support or just paper-thin. There are two resistance levels above at 0.083 and 0.087, so don’t expect a quick rebound in the short term.
The macro blow is even heavier. The Fed is holding steady, but two officials advocate for rate hikes, pushing the December hike probability close to 80%. The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 5%, the dollar index is held above 102, and tech earnings reports have further dampened risk appetite. Bitcoin fell below 80,000, altcoins are drained of liquidity, and DOGE liquidations wiped out 17.8 million long tokens in a single day, totaling $342 million across the network.
The pain of 2x coin-margined positions is that the margin is in DOGE; when the price falls, the margin itself shrinks. The coin count doesn’t decrease, but the USD value gets thinner and thinner. However, near 0.077, funding rates have been crushed deep negative by shorts—shorts are paying to push prices down, while the large holders’ long-to-short ratio quietly climbed above 2.6. What’s running away is leverage, not money.
I just ask: if 0.0775 breaks, will I still follow my adding-to-position discipline? Am I holding through normal volatility, or am I holding an asset whose payment narrative has already been pulled away? #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $DOGE $ETH
This time I'll pick a side first: I don't see the 253,000 ETH in the hacker's hands as a short-term negative.
The on-chain valuation is $570 million; they've already sold off altcoins like PEPE, UNI, LINK to swap for ETH. Fleeing only with the most mainstream assets shows an attitude.
Aave has directly suspended new deposits and loans, citing concerns about wETH collateral issues. But ACI calculated that the hacker's debt only accounts for 0.9% of wETH reserves, so even if liquidated, it can be absorbed; the panic outweighs the actual risk.
Since last night, the whole network has liquidated over $1.1 billion, with BTC only accounting for $350 million; the majority is altcoins and high-leverage long positions. ETH itself has only dropped about 4% in 24 hours, hovering around 2256, much stronger than most altcoins.
My move today is no move. In this market, holding many positions means getting hit.
What I'm really watching is what Shen Yu mentioned—the Binance hot wallet on the 14th still hasn't canceled 7,702 orders, and another 2,961 ETH is being transferred there. Until this bomb is defused, don't bottom-fish halfway down.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $DOS 0.1899 is about 5.2% away from 0.18 — for 20x leverage, this distance corresponds to roughly 104 points of floating profit change.
The integer price levels of micro-priced assets have inherent attraction: stop losses, psychological orders, and programmed conditional orders all cluster there. Breaking below 0.18 means the "1-digit" narrative is confirmed, and the discussion shifts from "how much will it pull back" to "will it return to the starting point of the rise," with fewer people willing to catch the fall.
Both scenarios need to be planned in advance: a volume-driven break below may trigger a chain of stop losses leading to an acceleration phase; rejection before the level results in a pullback, and although the remaining margin on this order is wide (16.2%), the floating profit is already down to one-third when it pulls back to 0.195.
Subsequent strategy: 0.18 is the watershed. A volume-driven break below targets 0.17 and 0.16; if volume shrinks before the level and it stabilizes and recovers above 0.195, halve the position. No directional prediction, only react accordingly. $BTC $ETH
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Brother Maji's position set shows a hedging layout of "high-leverage mainstream coin short + medium-leverage mainstream coin long + low-leverage popular coin short," with a clearly differentiated overall profit and loss structure. Funding fee income has become an important safety cushion for some positions, representing a typical arbitrage-type position combination of large funds in a volatile market.
$BTC short: 40X full position, holding 243.96 BTC, valued at 19.2973 million U, opening price 84070.0 U, unrealized P&L +1.2128 million U, funding fee income +142,400 U, margin 482,400 U, liquidation price 97220.89 U.
$ETH long: 25X full position, holding 7223.81 ETH, valued at 16.3381 million U, opening price 2500.18 U, unrealized P&L -1.7228 million U, funding fee expense -71,600 U, margin 653,500 U, liquidation price 1629.39 U.
$HYPE short: 5X full position, holding 252,900 HYPE, valued at 23.2901 million U, opening price 69.3555 U, unrealized P&L -5.7486 million U, funding fee income +1.1164 million U, margin 4.658 million U, liquidation price 108.17 U.
The core idea of this combination is to use BTC high-leverage shorts to bet on the downtrend of leading coins, hedge the risk of missing out in extreme downturns with ETH longs, and finally earn high funding fee income from popular coins with low-leverage HYPE shorts.
The liquidation prices of all three positions have sufficient safety buffers from the current market price, making it difficult to trigger forced liquidation even if there is a large reverse market movement.
However, the HYPE short currently has an unrealized loss close to 6 million U. Even with high funding fee income offsetting it, if the coin continues to rise strongly, the unrealized loss will rapidly expand, making it the riskiest part of the entire position.
The overall strategy leans toward arbitrage hedging, able to continuously increase returns through funding fees in a volatile market, but there remains the possibility of significant losses in some positions during extreme one-sided market moves.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ 真正容易误判的，是把小币暴涨当成"市场回来了"。 可这波情绪，真的在往主流资产传吗？ 看到 PONS 和 XRP 两笔空单被平掉的时候，我第一反应不是"逆势好惨"，而是市场这段节奏确实变了。PONS 用 10 倍杠杆全仓做空，最后亏了 734.26U，亏损率 64.43%；XRP 同样 10 倍做空，亏 55.21U，亏损率 16.98%。两个方向都押跌，结果一个被小币的弹性直接打穿，一个靠相对温和的波动才少亏一点。这组对比很说明问题：小市值币的逼空不需要太多理由，而主流币的下跌节奏更依赖整体风险偏好。 账户从最低 429.56 人民币回到 1946.09，单日 62.11% 的反弹确实很亮眼，但我更在意它背后的结构。这波回血更像市场给的礼物，不是交易逻辑被验证了。小币拉升时没有预兆，逆势大仓位很容易被快速穿透；而 XRP 这类主流资产波动更克制，反而给了止损和调整的空间。也就是说，同样看空，PONS 交易的是情绪和弹性，XRP 交易的是阻力和节奏，两者根本不是一个游戏。 放到跨市场联动里看，这段故事其实在提醒我：当美股科技股财报好坏参半、利率预期摇摆时，加密内部的冒险情绪并不会均匀传Core PCE surging to 3.1% did what a week of chart patterns could not: it reset the entire risk hierarchy in crypto within hours. On the morning of October 30, $BTC fell below the 80,000 line to 78,887, $ETH dropped 4% to 2,271, and $SOL slid 5.4% through the round 100 level to 97.15. The trigger was macro, but the damage was structural — and the sequence matters more than the headline. Start with positioning. Bulls who defended 81,500 the previous day were not wrong about support; they were wron#Strategy财报前瞻: BTC book profits rebound sharply Why did the crypto market plunge instead after the Fed paused rate hikes? #Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC Book Gains Rebound Sharply
Strategy earned 19.5 billion on the books in Q3, with an EPS of $44.75, yet the stock price fell—this is the double-edged sword of the BTC amplifier.
Q3 operating profit was 20.91 billion, all from BTC fair value gains; software revenue was 125.4 million, down 3%; holding 848,517 BTC.
But BTC Yield is -3.7% this year, equity expansion outpaces coin hoarding, so the coin amount per share is shrinking; closed down 2.44% on Thursday, and fell about 4% after hours.
The good-looking earnings rely entirely on BTC rising; if the coin falls, profits vanish; the market is skeptical and there is a distant concern: MSCI will announce the final list on November 11, and if kicked out of the index, JPMorgan estimates about $2.8 billion in passive selling pressure.
I don’t chase this kind of book bull market.
Invalidation condition: if BTC stabilizes again and continues to rise, book gains will keep pushing it forward.
Do you think Strategy is a BTC amplifier, or will it sooner or later have to pay for equity dilution?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Strategy #财报$AAVE hacker deposits stolen USDT into Aave as collateral to borrow ETH.
This move is dirty.
USDT can be frozen by Tether, but can ETH be frozen? No.
So this debt was never intended to be repaid, nor does it need to be.
It's like using your money to take away the hardest assets on the chain.
DeFi's "decentralization" became the hacker's shield at this moment. $ETH $BTC Apple has a strong ecosystem and an established upgrade base, but sustaining demand across multiple product launches will be important.
My view is that the 2027 upgrade cycle deserves close attention. The combination of Pro demand, the Duo and the upcoming standard model could give Apple several opportunities to drive hardware revenue.
The earnings beat will matter, but the guidance could tell us much more about where Apple's growth is heading.
What are you expecting from Apple's Q4 results?$PARTI • The contract has minting permissions; although it is not a honeypot contract and the buy-sell tax is 0, there remains a potential risk of dilution of token value due to minting. • The top 10 addresses hold a combined 72.05% of the circulating supply, and the top 100 hold 91.19%. Along with continuous linear unlocking of private sale rounds, reserves, and team allocations, there is simultaneous concentrated selling pressure and supply pressure. • The 1-hour RSI is 80.58 and CCI is 361.18, indicating severe short-term overbought conditions, and the funding rate of -0.386% reflects crowded shorts. After a sharp rise, volatility increases and the risk of pullback is high.Tonight’s 8:30 P.M. release of U.S. PCE and GDP data lands on a crypto market already primed for volatility, and the reaction will hinge less on the headline numbers than on how they rearrange rate expectations. Three plausible paths stand out, each with a distinct transmission channel into digital assets. If both PCE and GDP beat expectations, the message is persistent inflation and a hotter economy. Markets would reprice toward higher rates for longer, the dollar would strengthen, and $BTC andBitcoin mining rewards halve every four years, which is a hard-coded protocol setting; however, the idea that "price continuously doubles following the halving cycle" is merely a market fantasy—no asset can rise indefinitely.
Reviewing the two bull markets clearly shows the trend changes: Bitcoin's historical high in 2021 was $69,000. In 2025, with the successful launch of spot ETFs, market expectations peak, but the price tops out at only $126,000 before falling back, with a significant weakening of upward momentum. The market has already given clear signals; essentially, there is an inherent structural conflict in Bitcoin's mining mechanism, posing a long-term risk of a spiraling downward trend.The decline caused by $AMZN earnings report dragged down $BTC and $ETH
At 4 a.m., Amazon's earnings report caused a sharp drop, dragging down the Nasdaq.
Concerns about AI capital expenditure have resurfaced.
BTC and ETH, as high-beta assets, were sold off accordingly.
This is not caused by a single negative factor:
Tightening macro conditions,
Weakening US stock risk assets,
Deteriorating internal crypto funding,
Together triggered this wave of decline.
Bitcoin fell below the 79,000-80,000 range,
Ethereum fell below $2,300,
Leading to a concentrated liquidation of long leverage across the market.
However,
For certain individual assets,
it is actually time to opportunistically buy at lower prices.Seeing the core PCE for September rise to 3.1% is indeed a bit surprising. 🙄️
It's a bit higher than last month. Everyone originally thought inflation would gradually ease and that the good days of rate cuts were not far off, but this has directly proven otherwise. 🤪
The market focus has shifted from whether there will be a rate cut to whether there will be a rate hike in December.
$BTC has been fluctuating around 80,000 today. After the data release, it briefly surged to around 81,500.#OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz join forces to promote perpetual contracts entering the US compliant market
ICE provides compliant clearing and operations, Trade.xyz provides the product, and OKX provides retail traffic, packaging perpetual contracts into the US regulatory framework, but the premise is CFTC approval, and the compliant version is likely a "discounted version" with low leverage and high KYC.
Essentially, this is ICE "absorbing" the product capabilities of the Hyperliquid ecosystem into its own clearing track, forming a dual-track structure of offshore continuation and onshore compliant mirroring; product-wise, experience is exchanged for regulatory certainty, with leverage far lower than offshore; in terms of pace, the short term relies on narrative and HYPE sentiment, while the long term still depends on the formal application and approval results yet to be submitted, and opposition from CME and others will not disappear. $OKB $BTC $HYPE Binance hot wallet fluctuations combined with the US stock earnings season drag caused BTC to dip to 78,763 at one point, triggering about $628 million in liquidations within an hour. The real signal is not in the drop itself, but where the money went: BTC ETF net inflow was $135 million in a single day, ETH ETF net outflow was $21.11 million, and SOL ETF weekly net outflow was about $24.8 million, ending 14 consecutive weeks of inflows.
$BTC is around 78,900. There is a dense short position zone of about $66.87 million near 81,561 above, and long positions of about $63.15 million near 79,966 below, but a thicker layer lies below 76,707, with long liquidation intensity around $1.9 billion. 78,000 is the psychological defense line; reclaiming 80,000 is considered stopping the bleeding.
$ETH is around 2,268. Long liquidation near 2,280 is about $33.8 million, the most concentrated side currently. October ETF cumulative net outflow is approaching a historical record; ETFs are withdrawing while the market is propping up.
$SOL is around 97, having fallen below 100. ETFs have had consecutive days of net outflows, with BSOL being the main source of outflow. Below 97 is a short-term reference; breaking this level may accelerate the decline.
In short: PCE year-over-year is 3.6%, December rate hike probability is about 80%, macro conditions remain tight, and among the three coins, only BTC's ETF is receiving money, while ETH and SOL are still seeing money flow out.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Its ability to manage costs, protect margins and generate consistent cash flow has also helped sustain its earnings performance.
However, I don't believe the biggest market reaction will come from whether Apple beats estimates by a few cents.
The real focus should be on gross margins, supply conditions and management's outlook for the holiday quarter. With expectations already elevated, even a strong earnings beat could disappoint investors if forward guidance comes in weaker than anticipated.Looking at the hacker's address, Binance was hacked for 5.9 billion, minus the frozen stablecoins of 2.4 billion, Binance's loss is 2.5 billion USD, not the 1 billion USD loss claimed by CZ.
Compared to historical events, Bybit was hacked for 1.5 billion, this time Binance was hacked for 4 times that amount. I only remember that after the last Bybit hack, the market started a continuous decline with big, small, and gradual drops.
This time, the outlook is not optimistic, and the impact will beBig Brother Maji's short positions, the whole network is waiting for the wrong direction
Over 20 million in unrealized losses hanging there, looks scary. $BTC short 2,613 contracts, $ETH short 106,400, $SOL short 719,900, the numbers laid out do look like they're about to be taken away.
But first, let's be clear on one thing: full margin, liquidation prices are far away. BTC at 135,031, ETH at 3,671, SOL at 293. The margin has covered 40 to 50 million USD, prices have moved up a bit, the pain is on paper, not the position.
More importantly, he is the one collecting the money. Three short position funding fees have already brought in over 11.4 million, unrealized losses over 20 million, bleeding day by day. Holding in the range, the one in a hurry is not the rent collector.
The real variable is the data. The decision just landed, 10 to 2, two dissenting votes calling for a rate hike; GDP and PCE come out tonight. If data is strong, shorts will flip; if data is weak, then it's the longs' turn to talk about a short squeeze. Betting on him cutting losses is actually betting on which side the data supports.
Another detail worth noting: he only shorts BTC, ETH, SOL, no ZEC. ZEC is running an independent trend, the crowded side is not the shorts, he didn't provoke it, that's clear-headed.
My view is simple—don't wait for his liquidation to ignite a fire. The fuel theory only holds if there's a breakout first. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $LINK, Uni, and other stolen tokens being dumped—everyone, don't panic in the long run. This incident basically has nothing to do with everyone. Binance must repurchase and return them to users. The harder the dump now, the greater the buying power will be later. As soon as the hacker finishes dumping, Binance will likely buy back in a short time. However, Binance's platform token will be under pressure. Whether Binance will continue to sell its platform token to buy other tokens afterward is uncertain.🎉🎉🎉
"3.3 Billion Transferred Out, Over 600 Million Long Positions Liquidated in One Hour"
Two hot wallets from a certain exchange consecutively transferred funds: the first transaction was about $2.5 billion, including 167,500 ETH plus over 1.6 billion stablecoins bundled to a new address; the second wallet transferred out 780 million, totaling about 3.3 billion in two transactions, with an estimated total outflow on-chain possibly reaching 5.6 billion.
The initiating address's funds came from a mixing service, and the receiving address then redistributed about 195,500 ETH. This doesn't look like internal rebalancing but more like the keys were compromised. The official has not confirmed theft yet, only stating an investigation and fund security; the founder admitted it looks like a hacker attack and expects full coverage. The issuer has frozen over 2 billion stablecoins, but the ETH and spot assets cannot be frozen.
In the hour after the news broke, the entire network liquidated 629 million, with 607 million in long positions, 96% of the liquidations on longs; now daily liquidations exceed 1 billion, with 172,500 traders wiped out, the largest single liquidation was 11.08 million, also a long position. BTC is around 78,966, falling below 79,000 without recovering; ETH near 2,270, positions shrank by 2.00%; SOL dropped below 100 to 97.23, positions shrank by 6.02%; ZEC positions shrank by 9.80%, the most severe.
In the last hour, liquidations fell to 28.88 million, the first wave is considered over. But the situation is not finalized; losses, coverage, and withdrawal recovery all depend on the next official statement. Everyone is avoiding chasing the tail or shorting; longs were just cleared, and shorts have no opposing positions.The $100 line has been tested several times by Solana already.
Yesterday, SOL dropped again near 100, some saw it as support, while others started calculating how much further it might fall. Overall, it dropped about 15% in October. The spot ETF has seen a net outflow of over 20 million USD in the past two days, with the largest single-day outflow on the 27th, about 19 million USD, the biggest day since December last year.
The Alpenglow upgrade went live on the 21st, pushing the consensus layer forward, but the price didn’t follow. On-chain stablecoins and RWA are still moving, and there’s new news on payment integration, but these things currently feel more like "might be useful in the future" and don’t really support today’s buying.
One address sold about 1 million SOL in the past few days, worth over 100 million USD, and after selling, the price softened further.
Many people treat SOL as "faster and cheaper than ETH, so a pullback is an opportunity." The problem is its capital flow is different from BTC and ETH now; ETFs are withdrawing, whales are selling, and the price keeps testing 100 repeatedly. Whether 100 breaks or not isn’t the key; what matters is if there’s real money backing it when it breaks, not just people shouting "buy the dip" in chat groups.
Are you still holding $SOL now?
$SOL The ratio of long to short BTC contract accounts is currently 68% long and 32% short, with a long-short ratio of 2.13.
Brothers, 68% of retail investors are going long, yet the price has dropped from 81,000 to 78,000. This is a classic case of retail investors bottom-fishing and getting trapped.
Looking at the curve, on October 22, the long-short ratio surged to a high of 2.2, when BTC was around 84,000. Then it fell all the way to 78,000, trapping all those 68% long positions.
What's even scarier? After last night's crash, the long-short ratio didn't drop; instead, it surged again to 2.18. What does this mean? Retail investors are frantically bottom-fishing and going long during the crash, buying more as the price falls.
This signal is very dangerous. When retail investors are unanimously bullish, it often means the whales continue to dump. Because the more long positions retail investors pile up, the more longs get liquidated when the price is pushed down, which makes the whales happy.
Right now, at the 78,000 level, 68% of long positions are hanging overhead. If it breaks below 78,000 today, this batch of longs will liquidate in a chain reaction, and BTC could directly drop to 75,000.
Don't bottom-fish with retail investors; wait until they get liquidated before you enter.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $PEPE has had one of its most eventful weeks of 2026, and the activity behind its recent price action is worth paying attention to.
Over roughly 10 days, wallets linked by Arkham to Justin Sun accumulated approximately 11.9 trillion PEPE, representing about 2.82% of the total supply and worth an estimated $51M to $58M at the time.📉 FOMC Preview: Crypto Market More Fearful of a “Hawkish Pause”
This FOMC meeting is almost certainly going to hold steady: interest rates are expected to remain at 3.75%—4.00%, with CME FedWatch assigning about a 90% probability. 🔍 The real variable is December — the market’s bet on a 25 basis point hike then has exceeded 70%, making this meeting feel more like a “hawkish pause” rather than the end of tightening.
For the crypto space, the decision itself has already been priced in; the real impact lies in the marginal wording of the statement and Powell’s press conference. 🧐 If the statement continues to keep "further tightening may be appropriate" and paves the way for a December hike, the actual interest rate expectations rising will increase the discount rate on risk-free assets, suppressing capital’s willingness to allocate more to BTC. Before the meeting, BTC had already fallen below $80,000, hitting a low of about $79,300; ETH and SOL also weakened simultaneously, with whales selling approximately $66.4 million worth of BTC in 24 hours, and high-volatility assets seeing active deleveraging. 🐋
Core judgment: No change in October is neutral for crypto. If Powell clearly signals a December hike, BTC may remain weak, oscillating between $78,000 and $83,000 in the short term; if the wording is unexpectedly mild and does not reinforce December expectations, there is a window for a short-term rebound. Currently, the "degree of hawkishness" matters more than "whether to hike or not" in determining Bitcoin’s price. ⚖️Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.47%, with the first-level pair scale about $989; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 10%. The smaller the capacity, the higher the impact proportion.
The $SOL mark spread is positive, but the buy near sell far first-level quote is already inverted. Near-month annualized +2.27%, far-month annualized +0.54%, the near end is more expensive; mark near-far spread +0.04%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.37%. Inversion means the actual marked spread cannot be obtained.