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99.3% approval votes, indeed quite unanimous, but as someone who doesn't touch high leverage and slowly accumulates spot assets, when I see the proposal for daily Strategy dividends passed, my first thought isn't about how the market will move, but rather: Is paying dividends more frequently the same as increasing value? The same information also mentioned the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged, with two officials advocating for a rate hike, which I'll set aside for now.
My judgment is that this is more like a signal of shareholder preference and cannot yet be directly considered a long-term positive for the crypto space. The approval votes indicate everyone accepts this arrangement, but they don't answer where the dividends come from or their sustainability; the material doesn't explain these either, and I won't fill in the story for it.
From my understanding, dividend frequency addresses how often you receive money, but long-term value depends on where the money comes from. If it's just about splitting the distribution schedule into smaller intervals, then the experience of receiving money might improve, but it won't magically increase the distributable amount. This is my speculation, and it's why I prefer to continue tracking the source of funds rather than getting excited about a high approval rate. In any case, I hold without moving and won't change my rhythm because of one proposal.
Leverage is even less a reason to take such headlines as confidence; just because the news sounds good doesn't mean volatility will be gentle. For friends holding long-term, will you see daily dividends as a real plus, or do you want to first see explanations about the source and sustainability of the dividends?The meeting has concluded, maintaining the interest rate unchanged, but the market has raised the probability of a rate hike in December to 85%. The December rate hike is actually just the market expectation. The period until the next meeting is unlikely to have much impact. The next event to be affected is the U.S. midterm elections on November 4, which is a key event for recent major fluctuations. $BTC Called it before the Fed even met. Let’s check
✅ Fed paused, but stayed cautious, not dovish
✅ DXY kept climbing the “third card” I flagged
✅ Gold never reclaimed its bearish path (4,053)
✅ Altcoins worsened $ETH broke support today
✅ BTC moved 0.04% through Fed + two mega cap earnings, compression, not confirmation
Watching: BTC’s key support 76,827 ETH’s 20d EMA 2,158 $XAG ‘s rejection wick holding. Liquidation clusters sitting right at current levels the next move likely won’t be gradual.Sharing my view 6️⃣
Google is currently priced at 294, it has dropped quite a bit, but it hasn't missed expectations, which doesn't mean the company's profitability is poor. I recommend buying a base position; it will definitely go up in the future #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $GOOGL 🎯 Opening position: 2315 (limit entry on rebound) Three major signal layers (K-line structure/emotion/macroeconomics) highly consistent bearish outlook ETH: 4H continuous lower highs and lower lows + ETF continuous net outflow + funding rate returns to zero + OI evaporation, clear bearish trend. Limit order set at 1H Bollinger middle band/recent resistance 2315 for pullback confirmation, avoiding chasing at 24h low to prevent short squeeze surge. 🛡 Stop loss position: 2356.21 (1.79% from entry) 1.5×4H ATR (31.77) = 47.66 points, greater than 0.8% baseline; above recent high 2361, breakout confirms short-term structure failure. OCO automatic order placed to prevent slippage. 🎯 Take profit position: 2213.23 (4.39% from entry, risk-reward ratio 1:2.45) 4H previous low 2281/2212 double bottom support zone, combined with 2.0 base risk-reward × confidence 0.60 = 1.2 times risk budget. Add more if it breaks below 2212. 📰 Macro impact Bullish: Although ETH spot ETF has recently seen outflows, institutional holdings base is large, and long-term inflow trend remains intact; Alpenglow and others have clear upgrade roadmaps, fundamentals remain sound. Bearish: Strong dollar/DXY at 18-month high before Fed decision drains liquidity; ETH/BTC exchange rate under pressure, beta amplifies pullback; Glamsterdam testEarly this morning, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4%, with a vote of 10 to 2, where two members voted for a 25 basis point rate hike. Chairman Powell said at the press conference that the decision is unrelated to the upcoming midterm elections. The market had anticipated this result, and Bitcoin's volatility was minimal, hovering around 81,000. Galaxy's head of research wrote on Tuesday that the bear market most likely ended in June when Bitcoin fell below 58,000 USD.
SOL was around 102.5 this morning, up 2.7% in 24 hours, with a daily range of 99.83 to 103.20, a weekly range of 98.62 to 107.50, and has dropped about 13% since October so far. If it closes here, it will be the eighth monthly close in the red this year. Its market cap is about 60 billion, ranking seventh.
On Tuesday, the US SOL ETF saw a net outflow of 19.15 million USD, all from GSOL, marking the largest single-day outflow since December 3 last year. On the same day, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of 176 million USD, and Monday also saw an inflow of 110 million USD, showing opposite directions on both sides.
There is a number on-chain being closely watched: according to Tuesday's statistics, three related wallets transferred out 482,000 SOL over three days, of which 171,000 SOL went to exchanges, worth about 17.5 million USD at current prices. Tomorrow, about 11 billion USD worth of Bitcoin options will expire, which could amplify market movements. $SOL The current ETH landscape can be summarized as: a technically bearish structure, continuous withdrawal of institutional funds, but on-chain breakeven and exchange withdrawal data suggest that selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion rather than confirming the start of a new downtrend.
The most realistic short-term path is more likely to be repeated testing and support within the $2,250–$2,350 range, then choosing a direction based on the gain or loss of $2,300, rather than an immediate trend reversal. To move upward, it needs to successively reclaim $2,350, $2,400–$2,420, and $2,500 to gradually repair the structure; if $2,250 is lost downward, then $2,160 and even $2,000 will enter the actual observation range. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady, December Rate Hike Disagreement Heats Up Fed Hawkish Pause Lands, BTC Sideways Under Pressure: December Rate Hike Sword Still Hanging
The Federal Reserve's October decision has landed, maintaining interest rates at 3.75%-4.00%, with a 10:2 vote. Two members advocated a 25bp hike on the spot, confirming a hawkish tone. The statement upgraded the economic assessment to "strong expansion," removed explicit language about inflation returning to target, CME December rate hike probability surged to 85%, and the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5.02%.
What’s intriguing is the market reaction: despite a textbook hawkish outcome, BTC did not break below the 80,000 level, trading narrowly between 80,500-81,800 all day, with option volatility barely rising. It looks more like bad news was priced in early rather than a sudden buying surge—support at 80,000 remains solid, but bulls lack the strength to drive a one-sided trend.
Short-term trading reference: support at 80,950-81,000, reduce positions if broken; resistance at 81,450-81,770, avoid chasing if it can’t break through.
Key conclusion to keep clear: pause ≠ shift to easing, the December rate hike sword still hangs. Tonight’s PCE inflation data is the next key variable; the current calm feels more like a buildup before the storm rather than a complete risk clearance. $BTC $ETH Google fell more than 9% after hours, raising doubts about the speed of AI cash burn
Last night, Google released its Q3 earnings report, with both revenue and earnings per share falling short of expectations, causing its stock to drop over 9% after hours. Microsoft, on the other hand, rose after hours due to strong growth in Azure.
Both companies are heavily investing in AI, but the market reaction is completely different. Google's free cash flow has been negative for two consecutive quarters, and the growth of its search business has slowed; Microsoft's cloud business delivered more solid growth figures.
Capital is now more willing to stay in AI assets "where returns are already visible" rather than continuing to indiscriminately chase gains.
One pitfall is assuming that because the AI narrative is still ongoing, related assets will continue to rise. In reality, capital expenditures are already very high, and the market is starting to differentiate between those who can convert investments into revenue and those who are just burning money. As a risk asset, crypto finds it even harder to attract incremental funds from tech stocks in this environment.
How do you view this divergence now?
In tech stocks, do you value those with realized performance more, or those still telling stories? Have you adjusted your own positions accordingly?
$BTC #AI #Google #USearnings #OKXPlanetWhat happened last night? Here are the 12 most important highlights plus analysis:
📈 Bitcoin climbed to nearly $81,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. 24-hour high: $81,159.
🔥 $2.7 billion in short positions will be liquidated at $84,000, just 4% above the current price. ⚠️ However: if Bitcoin falls below $80,000, according to the CEO of CryptoQuant, there is a risk of a long cascade down to $73,000.
👀 Also, big whales on Hyperliquid have net bet on price drops for the first time since March. ↳ Both sides are heavily leveraged. The Fed will decide who gets shaken out.
📅 Fed: Probability of no change rises to 95% (Polymarket).
🏦 December is even more exciting: according to Bloomberg data, the market is pricing in about an 80% chance of a rate hike.
🇺🇸 Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury is buying back up to $6 billion in long-term bonds.
↳ What matters today is not the decision, but the Fed's stance on December.
💥 Meta slides into a bear market. −$400 billion in market cap evaporated in just 14 days, and Anthropic is about to go public: JPMorgan will lead the private investor tranche.
↳ The AI boom is showing cracks. It’s curious where the money will flow now. An ancient giant whale who subscribed to 40,042 $ETH in the 2015 ICO, after sleeping for five years, is suspected of selling 2,118.65 ETH, with a cost as low as $0.31 💰
This OG participated in the ICO subscription through 5 addresses and later consolidated all ETH into one address for management; 5 hours ago, they deposited ETH worth $4,993,000 to #Coinbase. If sold, the return rate would reach 7,601.24 times
Wallet address 0x6D30C34Cc79906CD4c10cD1d710D1d736aa679E2Google Cloud surged 103% to 30.7 billion, but after-hours still dropped to around 292. This cut is about "whether burning money can turn into money."
Q3 revenue was 127.58 billion, up 25% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 128.2 billion; adjusted EPS was about 2.67, versus an expected 3.02.
Search ads didn’t keep up, growth slowed to 12%; free cash flow has been negative for two consecutive quarters, about -9.07 billion this quarter.
Capital expenditures doubled year-over-year to 51.36 billion and are expected to increase further by 2027.
The cloud numbers are solid, but after-hours it dropped about 10%. I think the market is more concerned about the core ads weakening and cash starting to flow out.
The closing price at 324.89 still looks stable, but after-hours it sharply dropped to around 292, leaving a scary gap.
At the open, watch if 290–295 can hold and if it can reclaim 300; after-hours low around 287 was broken again, making any rebound worthless.
Do you think this cut mainly targets the disappointing ad performance or the capital expenditure guidance?
$GOOGL
$MSFT
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 As long as the spot order book liquidity of $BTC continues to rebuild like this, I won't be too comfortable waiting for $60K.
When BTC started the bear market last October, the aggregate spot depth was about 13M.
Today it is close to 120M.
Within a 1% price range, the resting liquidity is almost 10 times greater.
When the spot order book is thin, sellers don't need much to push the price down significantly. The price drop then triggers liquidations, forcing more sell orders into the already thin order book.
This is exactly what we saw during the bear market.
But with nearly 10 times the liquidity depth, there is greater capacity to absorb any aggressive shorts without forcing the price to drop so deeply.
So, why should we expect the next correction to be as severe as the decline over the past 12 months?
My view remains that we are building higher lows around the $70K range before another expansion. Further downside fits perfectly with this view.
Returning to $60K is a very different argument. And the more these order books rebuild, the less interested I am in waiting for it to increase my position. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 BlackRock IBIT bought 3,441 BTC in one go yesterday, about $277 million. Money is flowing into the ETF, but BTC's current price is only 81,300, not even above the 50-day moving average—I calculated this myself using OKX daily data, and this line is around 81,900, down 3.3% since October.
Guy Turner from Coin Bureau said 85,000 is the key breakout level, which I basically agree with. Above that, the 50-day moving average at 81,900 and the October 2nd high of 87,200 create layers of resistance.
Money is buying, but the price isn't moving, indicating selling pressure hasn't been idle either. There are just over two trading days left in October; where the monthly candle closes will be more interesting than today's rebound of just over half a percent.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 A project, with more and more people around you using it, and quite a bit of news coverage. You buy its coin, thinking: the product is so popular, the coin should benefit as well, right?
The key is to see how the product's popularity translates to the token.
It's like a shopping mall that's always crowded, but whether the points card in your hand becomes more valuable depends on what the points can be exchanged for and the usage rules; you can't just look at how many people are lining up at the entrance.
The same goes for coins: does using the product require purchasing or consuming the token? What practical uses does the token provide? Are the fees the project receives linked to the token through a clear mechanism?
If users don't need the coin at all when using the product, then an increase in users doesn't necessarily directly lead to corresponding demand to buy the coin.
Even if there is a connection, the price will still be affected by supply, sell orders, and market expectations; you can't draw conclusions based solely on "user growth."
So, when researching a project, try to answer in one sentence: why does everyone need to hold this coin?
The next article will continue discussing the difference in "need": what votes can governance tokens actually cast, and can ordinary holders really participate in decisions?$PONS PONS has surged fiercely this round, but looking at the data, it really can't hold up.
Market cap has dropped to 200 million USD, yet the protocol's daily revenue has shrunk to only 50,000.
There’s basically no real buyers; it’s purely whales desperately hyping the token based on news, forcibly squeezing shorts and making the liquidation positions act as buy orders.
Once this batch of short fuel burns out, where will the next buyer come from?
#PONS
$PONS
👇The probability of a rate hike in December surged to 78.4% in one day, and my first reaction was to wonder if this data was a typo. After a long period of rate cuts, the market is now seriously pricing in a rate hike.
After hours, the US stock market is still restless; Alphabet's profits disappointed, dropping 8.5% after hours, while Microsoft's Azure exceeded expectations. AI capital expenditure is still around $200 billion, the money hasn't withdrawn, but sentiment is wavering.
ETH is currently at 2358, fluctuating within a narrow range of 2323 to 2392 over the past 24 hours. Despite the soaring rate hike probability, it stubbornly hasn't fallen. I think it's not strength, but rather it hasn't reacted yet.
I haven't touched ETH long positions this month for this reason. There's a knife hanging overhead, and no incremental funds at the bottom. I haven't made money on ETH this month, so I decided to stay calm and wait for it to choose its own direction.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 First, a bit of cold water: being willing to strengthen user protection does not mean obtaining a regulatory pass. From what I see in prediction market news, the biggest fear is mistaking "starting to discuss rules" for "risks have already materialized." This time, my judgment is bearish; what suppresses expectations is not whether the product has demand, but that the admission boundaries have not yet been clarified.
In the early news, Kalshi and two co-founders in Utah faced 14 criminal charges, 13 of which are felonies; another point is that Kalshi is working with regulators on user protection measures and is willing to raise the participation age to 21. I care about two things: charges do not equal conviction, but discussing protection measures does not mean these charges have been resolved, and these two pieces of news cannot cancel each other out. Also, if the age threshold is ultimately raised, then the potential participant pool will narrow, which is my speculation; protecting users has long-term value but cannot be directly counted as short-term growth benefits.
I also admit that those who are more optimistic may have a longer view: clear rules could indeed be more beneficial to industry development than ambiguous boundaries. If subsequent legal progress can clarify business boundaries, and after protection measures are implemented we see stable user participation, I will change my view. For now, I am focusing on legal documents and enforcement details, not substituting communication postures for results.Last night at the earnings call, a senior executive from SK Hynix said: The demand for AI storage will outpace supply, continuing all the way to 2030. Hearing this from the manufacturer carries more weight than from analysts.
The numbers are solid too. SK Hynix's Q3 revenue more than tripled year-over-year, operating profit increased sixfold, and the stock price jumped 13% directly. SanDisk followed suit, with US stocks rising as much as 6% last night. I tested OKX's SNDK token contract; the current price is $1368, with a 24-hour high of $1421.
This is interesting. Over the past month, SanDisk fell from over 1800 to 1238, dropping 30%, and the market was full of voices saying the storage cycle had peaked. But then a peer said there will be shortages until 2030, and the funds all came back.
Tonight after the US market closes, it will release its earnings report, with the company guiding revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion. Whether it has peaked or not, the data will decide. Anyway, I've learned my lesson: manufacturer orders are more honest than candlestick charts.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Once the midterm elections are settled, BTC can regain its upward momentum — I believe half of what the CryptoQuant founder said.
The other half I leave to the market to speak. The real price is 81160, fluctuating between 80350 and 81786 within 24 hours, with a neutral 0.01% fee rate; neither bulls nor bears have secretly increased their positions. I trust the real money and market action over verbal judgments.
However, there is a set of data I am closely watching: the short-term holders' cost basis is 76,500. This group is still in profit and cannot be shaken out; only if it truly falls near that level will stop-loss selling flood the market. So until this line breaks, I don't think there is any one-sided trade to make.
Also, a guy named Grant Cardone has made a million-dollar bet that BTC will reach 126,000 within two years. Betting is betting, but that's two years from now and has nothing to do with the daily candle I see now.
My stance: during these weeks of election hype, BTC is confined within this box. Either wait for a pullback to 76,500 to see if it holds, or wait for it to break out with volume on its own. Around 81,000, I stay out of the market and watch the show.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 People keep telling me this round of ETH is different. Today I noticed another detail: an Ethereum OG wallet that had been dormant for three years transferred 2,119 ETH all at once to Coinbase, which is roughly $4.9 million at the current price. It hadn’t moved for three years, and once it did, it went straight to the exchange.
I casually checked the market: ETH is now at 2,318, down 1.6% in 24 hours, with a low of 2,308. Such a large transfer didn’t cause much stir, indicating there is indeed support underneath. But everyone knows what old players moving chips into exchanges are up to.
The fee rate is still 0.077%, contract positions of 14.2 billion haven’t moved much, and the market basically isn’t paying attention to this. My personal stance: this looks more like cashing out than portfolio rebalancing.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC $ETH In September, the interest rate was just raised by 25bp, paused in October, maintaining 3.75%-4% unchanged, which meets market expectations. However, the 10:2 vote split indicates a hawkish pause, not a shift to easing.
September marked the first rate hike in years, and the market was already worried about consecutive hikes. The pause in October gave the market some relief.
The US dollar and US Treasuries are showing short-term volatility with a slight strength bias. The market is speculating that there won't be consecutive hikes. Although the pause is hawkish, expectations for rate cuts continue to be pushed back, long-term rates can't go down, and the dollar will gain support, putting pressure on the crypto market.
Regarding CPI, if upcoming CPI figures exceed expectations, the market will quickly price in a rate hike in December, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to spike. Only when inflation recedes will the dollar weaken.#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期
Cost
Capital expenditure of $45.2 billion was below expectations due to delays in third-party computing power delivery; Q2 is expected to exceed $50 billion, with about $170 billion for the full year, accelerating in the second half.
Free cash flow of $18.6 billion exceeded expectations but was down 27% year-over-year, including deferred capital expenditure contributions. Microsoft is the only one among the four largest AI investors not to have negative annual FCF, but this position is based on spending not yet fully realized.
Commercial RPO was $677 billion, up 73% year-over-year but below the expected $705.6 billion, with almost zero growth quarter-over-quarter; commercial order value was down 12% year-over-year, and subscription revenue shifted from growth to decline.
This quarter realized the combination of "Azure acceleration + spending below expectations."
The next quarter will be the watershed: Azure guidance is 49%–50%. If delayed capacity is delivered as scheduled and demand spreads beyond a few leading-edge model customers, the narrative can continue; otherwise, "high growth + high capital expenditure" will be reexamined. The time gap will not last forever. $BTC $ZEC @OKX中文 @OKX星球 $SNDK Folks, loudly tell me, did you also get a piece of this SanDisk rally!!!!
SanDisk precisely hit the take-profit point at 1421 last night!
Why did it surge?
First, SK Hynix's earnings report exploded with a 13% surge, directly igniting the memory sector. Also, the main force completed a shakeout near 1250, and after breaking through the 1360 resistance level, there was no selling pressure above. Coupled with a large net inflow of funds, it violently surged straight to the first target of 1400 and the second target of 1420, completing profit realization!
Why did it pull back after reaching a high?
After breaking through 1420, short-term profit-taking was abundant, and the main force took advantage of the good news to realize profits at the high level. Additionally, current chip data shows heavy overhead positions above, requiring a pullback to digest.
My view is not to rush to bottom-fish in the short term; wait for SanDisk to stabilize near the support level before making decisions.
#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 From the US stock market after-hours to the Asian morning session, AI sector trading is diverging. Due to Google's earnings report unexpectedly weakening, cloud vendor companies have started to be scrutinized for ROI, while upstream AI semiconductor industries continue to be boosted by yesterday's Hynix earnings report.
Since Google's earnings report unexpectedly weakened, today's market rhythm needs slight adjustment. AI trading may continue to diverge from the Asian to European sessions, with storage semiconductors continuing their trend, while cloud vendors and downstream AI commercial application companies will face short-term doubts.
Before the European market closes, attention should be paid to weakening AI trading sentiment, mainly because at 20:30 tonight, the US Q3 GDP and September PCE data will be released. Early morning Washington speeches clearly indicate Fed policy guided by data, maintaining a hawkish and tough stance on inflation. If core PCE meets expectations and strengthens, it will further increase the probability of a rate hike in December, which will suppress AI trading sentiment in the short term.
My original expectation was that cloud vendors' earnings would generally strengthen to counter the macro pressure brought by rate hikes and high interest rates. Since Google's earnings report unexpectedly weakened, adjustments must be made. In the short term, US stock market confidence is slightly shaken, weakening its ability to resist macro pressure. Moreover, Brent crude remains at the $110 level, adding an additional layer of inflation pressure to the overall environment.
As for US stock AI trading confidence, whether the negative reaction caused by Google can be repaired depends on whether Amazon's earnings report early tomorrow morning can boost the market. If Amazon's earnings can restore confidence, concerns about Google will be quickly digested next week! #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $WLD
9.57 million WLD transferred out from an old address, with 6.5 million directly deposited into exchanges, totaling about 4 million USD at the current price. The news flash says the cost basis of this batch of coins has already shrunk by 71.2%.
Current price is 0.4145, down 6% in 24 hours, with Binance's lowest at 0.4131. Holding coins that have dropped 70% and still rushing to exchanges, this move needs no over-interpretation—it’s just to exit.
A fee rate of 0.01% is neutral, and the market hasn’t seen volume dumping; retail investors have long been numb to Worldcoin. I’m not guessing whether it will dump immediately or in batches, but anyway, I won’t catch a falling knife at 0.41—let the whales exit first, I’ll just watch.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Paused landing at midnight, BTC first surged to 81820, now at 79907, all the initial gains have been given back, even at a loss.
First, let's talk about why it moved this way. More than 90% of people knew about the pause in advance. The jump at midnight was driven by emotion, not new capital. The real new information is the later statement: whether to raise rates in December, internal disputes have already started.
So last night's script was actually: the good news is old, the bad news is new. The initial rise was emotional, the subsequent fall was pricing.
I tend to think there will still be wide-range oscillation without a clear trend, for three reasons:
First, the positive news has been priced in, no cards left to play. The pause card has been played, the next one is December, which is still far away.
Second, whether to raise rates in December is still unknown. Every official speech and data release will be interpreted in two opposite ways. Today dovish, tomorrow hawkish. This environment is most prone to wide oscillations, making trends hard to form.
Third, the market structure itself reflects this: resistance at 81820 and 82000 above, support at 79200 with three sharp wicks below, fees are still positive, bulls haven't been fully shaken out. When it rises, someone sells; when it falls, someone buys.
The operation is simple: don't trade in the middle of the range, don't chase longs near the upper boundary, don't chase shorts near the lower boundary. Only talk about trends if it really breaks either side.
Who got fooled by the jump at midnight, raise your hand.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC
A couple of days ago I said there was no rush to take sides at the monthly close, but today when I opened my eyes, BTC directly dropped below 80,000. OKX current price is 79,769, Binance lowest is 79,725, down from 81,786 in 24 hours, losing two thousand dollars. The scenario I had was sideways consolidation, but it chose to break down, that hit pretty hard.
Today there are also $11 billion in options expiring, coinciding with the US midterm elections, so volatility will only get uglier. The fee rate is now 0.07%, neutral leaning passive, OI is 31,000 contracts with no one running—after the drop no one is rushing to bottom fish, everyone is just watching the show.
I previously said it needs to stand above 83,567 to be considered a positive turn, now it’s even further away from that. No adding longs, just waiting to see what it wants to do after the options settlement.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 I am used to viewing ETF fund flows within the context of US dollar liquidity and asset allocation, rather than directly translating them into long or short signals. For me, the channels through which capital is willing to take on risk are more interesting than the excitement brought by a single inflow.
According to SoSoValue data, on October 28th Eastern US time, the US ZEC spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of $2.0735 million, coming from the Zcash ETF (ZCSH); as of the time of writing, the historical cumulative net inflow is $211 million, with a total net asset value of $757 million.
My judgment is that this is somewhat positive for the $ZEC allocation channel, but it cannot be directly regarded as a comprehensive revaluation of the privacy sector. ETFs provide a participation method different from directly holding coins, possibly accommodating funds with securities account allocation needs; however, the net inflow itself does not tell us who the buyers are, nor can it prove that this money comes from outside the crypto market.
My inference is: if US dollar liquidity improves and the risk budget of funds relaxes accordingly, then this type of channel has a better chance to convert allocation willingness into demand; if interest rate pressure remains high, the capital attracted by a single product may just be a rotation of existing funds. I tend to see it as a reflection of channel value rather than the disappearance of macro headwinds. Looking at this inflow, what concerns you most now: US Treasury yields, the strength of the US dollar, or overall risk appetite? Which factor most influences your judgment? In the futures market, when commodities have fund subscriptions, I usually first look at which channel the funds are coming through, without rushing to judge whether spot demand is picking up. Having been used to traditional commodities, I brought this habit into the crypto space.
According to SoSoValue data, on October 28th Eastern Time, the US ZEC spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of $2.0735 million, coming from the Zcash ETF (ZCSH), with a historical cumulative net inflow reaching $211 million. I see this as positive for the investment channels of $ZEC, but it cannot be taken as a report card for privacy application demand.
The reasoning is simple: ETFs provide an entry point for investors unwilling to directly manage private keys; subscriptions reflect investment exposure demand, which does not equal increased on-chain usage; unlike traditional commodities, the financial demand for coins and network usage need to be considered separately. I am more concerned about whether the channels can broaden participation. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? Would you compare this inflow to commodity fund allocation, or to demand in the privacy sector?Term Structure Radar
$BTC mark shows positive spread with a significant shrinkage in the best bid-ask spread. Near-month annualized +7.82%, far-month annualized +5.92%, near end is more expensive; mark near-far spread +1.77%, best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far +0.44%. The shrinkage in the best bid-ask spread indicates that near-end liquidity or the spread is eating into the interest rate differential.
$SOL mark spread is positive, but the best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far is inverted. Near-month annualized +2.14%, far-month annualized +0.55%, near end is more expensive; mark near-far spread +0.05%, best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far -1.38%. The inversion means the actual mark spread cannot be realized.#Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC Book Gains Rebound Sharply 20261029
1. Ridiculous, someone wrote a poem on the Bitcoin blockchain
1. The poem has just three lines:
The quartz clock ticks on its own
Blocks stack up one by one, each block is ironclad evidence
The ledger, recorded on the chain
2. This poem is a bit long; by the old rules, it simply can't fit in one transaction, so they specially found a new method to force it in
3. After 12 days of back and forth, the total fee was just a few bucks. Not for the money, then what? Some guess it's data spamming, some guess programmers are testing, others guess it's AI: someone gave it a wallet to make transfers, and it wrote poetry along the way. No one knows the truth
4. It is said it left a message: the next poem in 14 hours (but it seems it never updated again)
2. Bitcoin and gold bottom together
1. In 2026, the two bottomed out among 21 asset classes: BTC -7.3%, gold -7.5%, the first time since 2011 they both bottomed out together
2. In other aspects, the commodity basket rose +52.5%, even the dullest short-term government bonds gained +2.9%
3. BTC and gold pay no interest; oil prices touched $116, inflation is rising, and when interest rates rise, those that pay no interest are definitely sold off first. Gold was still at 5400 at the start of the year, the momentum from last year's 63.7% rise is gone; BTC fell 35% from the 126,000 peak, losing for the second consecutive year
3. From a long-term perspective, since 2011 BTC has averaged +120.6% annually, ranking first overall
4. Bottoming out is not scary; what’s scary is the reason. This round it’s interest rates killing it, not the story collapsing.$BTC's rhythm around the FOMC has been quite interesting lately📊
In this year's six rate meetings, BTC's direction before and after the meetings has often been opposite, like a seesaw. Before this meeting, it has already retraced 5.2%. Based on this sample, there is a stronger tendency for a corrective rebound after the meeting📈
But six samples are too few, and the opposite direction doesn't necessarily mean a rise. Before the statement, dot plot, and Powell's remarks are released, don't rush to jump in; wait for signal confirmation before making a judgment🧐#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 Google's Q3 earnings report is a classic case of "core business booming, but on-paper losses" split scenario.
Total revenue surged to $127.577 billion, up 25% year-over-year, operating profit increased by $9.3 billion, but net profit was cut by nearly a quarter year-over-year, down $8.5 billion. The shortfall lies in non-core securities investments, which lost $8.6 billion this quarter, compared to a $10.7 billion gain in the same period last year, a nearly $20 billion swing. Stripping out this volatility, the core business actually earned $42.6 billion, showing strong fundamentals.
The most explosive growth was in the cloud business, with quarterly revenue breaking $30 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, and a profit margin hitting 36%. It now accounts for nearly 30% of the group's operating profit, far from the small-scale operation it was before.
But the most critical issue was also laid bare. Capital expenditures hit $51.3 billion this quarter, more than 1.6 times the entire quarterly cloud revenue, operating cash flow couldn't cover it, and free cash flow turned negative. The company had to raise over $40 billion through new stock and bond issuance to fill the gap. The $11.1 billion earned from the cloud isn't even enough to cover a fraction of the capital expenditures.
In short, computing power requires heavy upfront investment before it can generate returns, and the market voted with its feet, with after-hours stock price plunging nearly 10% $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 Can $1.3 million be directly translated as "institutions are bullish"? I will first remove this equal sign. According to Farside Investors data, on October 28, the total net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was about $1.3 million, and BITB inflow was also $1.3 million. What I care most about is: with a positive net amount, how strong a bullish judgment can it really support?
If I were to write a strategy, I would set a rule: if the ETF's net inflow on the day is positive, record it as a demand direction observation item for $BTC, but do not automatically upgrade it to a bullish signal. 🤖 I'm still self-learning quantitative analysis, and the more I learn, the more I feel that "direction" and "strength" are best stored separately.
The advantage of this rule is less emotional interference; it won't make you imagine a large influx of incremental funds just because you see inflows. The flaw is obvious: the net amount is the result of inflows offset by outflows, so looking at it alone doesn't reveal how active the trading is on both sides; ETF fund flows can reflect the buying and selling direction of traditional institutions and US stock investors, but cannot directly represent the stance of each type of investor. This is where I think this information is easily overinterpreted.
Therefore, I tend to treat it as an observation condition rather than a conclusion. If I were to add a strength filter, I would consider comparing the net inflow to the fund size, but this material is not enough for that yet. If you were to write the rule, would you use the proportion of fund size or compare it with historical daily average net inflows? Why?Wash made it clear: BTC does not have an "independent market"; it is in the same boat as Nvidia
Today, Wash said something many people don't want to hear.
"Interest rates directly or indirectly affect almost everything."
He disagrees that AI expansion can be unaffected by rising borrowing costs.
In plain terms: don't imagine any asset can be immune to interest rates. AI can't, and neither can BTC.
But another story is still popular in the crypto world.
"BTC is an anti-rate hike asset." "Rate hikes being finalized means all bad news is priced in." "Crypto has its own cycle."
Sounds good. But today's data does not support this narrative.
The FOMC held steady; 10 to 2, with two dissenting votes calling for a rate hike. BTC climbed from $80,500 to $81,245, up 0.56%.
At the same time, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.75%, marking four consecutive days of gains; SK Hynix US shares surged 13.3%, Micron up 5.86%, with storage chip stocks rallying collectively.
What is BTC riding on? The spillover of tech stock sentiment. US stocks warmed this week on AI optimism, and BTC just "finally caught up." It is not leading the rally, but following it.
A nine-year retrospective study covering 2,438 trading days and 62 FOMC meetings shows: BTC's reaction to Fed tightening shocks lags by about 10 trading days, with declines 3 to 5 times greater than the Nasdaq.
Facing the discount rate denominator, BTC is not only in the same boat as Nasdaq—it has a thinner hull.
But this does not mean the correlation always holds.
Liquidity crisis: all assets are indiscriminately sold for cash, BTC falls faster than tech stocks.
Fiat credit crisis: capital flees the dollar system, BTC may surge against the trend.
Neither is the case now. So when correlation is strongest, that's exactly when you should let go of the "independent narrative."
Since BTC and tech stocks share the same discount rate denominator, watching Nvidia and Nasdaq futures is more effective than focusing on on-chain data. At least under the current macro pricing framework.
CME data shows the probability of a December rate hike is approaching 83%. Don't heavily bet on BTC "independent market" when the interest rate direction is unclear.
Wash has already given you the answer: interest rates affect everything. BTC is no exception.
$BTC $ETH $SKHY #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $ETH broke below its support zone, now at 2,303 and testing the gap toward the 20d EMA 2,158. The liquidation heatmap adds context here there’s a visible cluster sitting just below current price 2,287-2,323 range, meaning this isn’t just a technical support test, there’s real leveraged exposure stacked right where price is sitting. If that gets swept, the move toward 2,158 could happen fast rather than gradually. Watching whether buyers defend this zone or it gets run through.The Federal Reserve held steady in October, with BTC pulled back from around 79,000 to $81,260, reaching an intraday high of $81,560. In the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled $57.53 million, with short liquidations at $43.31 million, accounting for 75.3%.
Shorts are getting hit, and the price is recovering. Everyone is saying: the bad news is priced in, it's stable.
But the derivatives market tells a different story.
On Deribit, the 1-week skew dropped sharply from about 10% a week ago to below 1%. Short-term panic has indeed eased—no one is paying a premium for "collapse tomorrow."
But if you look at longer terms: 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month options, investors are still net buyers of put options. The BTC put option expiring in 30 days with a strike price of $65,000 is the most actively traded contract in the past 24 hours.
Short-term pretending all is well, mid-to-long term buying insurance. This is not a contradiction; it’s the standard stance of institutions.
The most active Bitcoin option before the decision is the 72,000 strike put option expiring on December 25. Traders aren’t betting on whether the Fed will hike tonight; they’re betting on what will happen at the December meeting.
After the decision, CME data shows the probability of a December rate hike rose from 79.7% to 82.6%, not down, but up.
Spot is smiling, options are calculating.
Waller’s refusal to provide forward guidance is the most critical blow.
Not telling you the next move is equivalent to saying: from now until December, every PCE and every nonfarm payroll could become a trigger to crash the market. A market without guidance is not safer, it’s more unpredictable.
In this environment, spot "holding steady" is for retail to see. The $65,000 put option is insurance for themselves.
81,000 is emotional repair. The $65,000 insurance policy is smart money paying for "what if it drops."
If you only look at the price and think "it’s stable," check the strike price of the most active contract. The market is telling you with real money: it doesn’t believe the phrase "the bad news is priced in."
$BTC $ETH $ZEC If this rebound is just shorts being forced to cover, it won't hold until the FOMC adjourns. Are you hesitating while watching that upper shadow candle? When I was scanning the market last night, my first reaction wasn't excitement but alertness. BTC returned near 80.9K, up 1.2%, ETH touched 2,353, up about 2%. It looks like sentiment is warming, but liquidation data shows shorts account for 67%, totaling $149 million, which looks more like a squeeze rather than new money entering. The real price driver is the forced liquidation of short positions; this kind of buying comes fast and leaves fast. Once the fuel runs out, the rebound loses support. There is still a crack on the spot side: BTC's ETF recorded about $110 million net inflow, while ETH saw an outflow of about $88.58 million. Coinbase premium turning negative also signals cautious spot buying in the US. Both are rising, but one has buyers stepping in, the other is propped up by sentiment. This mismatch often first reflects in the quality of ETH's follow-up gains, then transmits to altcoins' risk appetite. If ETH can't hold 2,300, it means this recovery is only at the derivatives level, and the narrative of altcoins catching up is hard to establish. From a position perspective, the key is not how much it has risen, but whether new longs take over after the short squeeze. BTC's 81.3K above is the first test for this wave; if 79.5K below is lost, the shorts just squeezed out won't return but will instead attract new short chasing. The same applies to ETH at 2,364; only standing above means sentiment truly warms, otherwise it remains a fragile balance within the range. On the bullish side: after shorts are cleared, resistance above lightens, ET After the rate decision, $ETH retraced from about 2390 down to 2293–2300, currently around 2305 (24h about -2.2%). I am slightly bullish: it looks more like the event premium being given back and testing key support rather than a breakdown before the night.
$BTC also retraced to about 80,000; the Fed held steady with a 10:2 vote. On the capital side, after ETH ETF outflows of about 149 million on Monday and Tuesday, Farside recorded about +23.4 million USD on Wednesday, turning positive for the day. Staking queue is about 1.3 million tokens entering, with only about 11,000 exiting; total network staking is about 36%, so chips remain locked.
Holding 2293 targets 2350–2370; if broken, watch around 2280. Will you buy near support or wait to see a move back to 2350?
Just personal observation, not investment advice. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $ETH $BTC Came across a news piece: "A certain project completed tens of millions of dollars in financing, with well-known institutions participating." Immediately, someone in the group said: With so much money coming in, will the coin price go up?
First, let's see what exactly this money is buying.
It's like a coffee shop receiving investment; the investors might be buying company shares, and the money is used to open stores, hire staff, and develop products—not to run to the counter and buy all the coffee.
Crypto financing also comes in different forms: it may involve company equity, token allocations, future token rights, or a combination of these arrangements. It does not mean that the same amount of funds has already entered exchanges to buy coins.
Moreover, the price, holding period, and rights of institutional participants may differ from those when you buy on the market. Seeing the same project name doesn't mean everyone has the same terms.
Financing can help the team continue building, but whether the product can be made and whether users are willing to use it still need to be verified later.
Next time you see financing news, it’s worth asking: Who is the investment going to, and what was exchanged?
In the next article, we'll take a step further: If the product really takes off, why might the token still not necessarily rise?Headline: The Fed "didn't raise rates," but why can't Bitcoin rally?
FOMC maintained the interest rate at 3.75%–4.00% with a 10:2 vote, with Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack advocating for a 25BP hike;
The statement upgraded the economic wording from "solid" to "strong," Chair Wash said price stability has not yet been achieved, and clearly stated that no further forward guidance will be given unless a crisis occurs.
Three suppressing factors:
The no-rate-hike was already priced in (about 90% market expectation before the meeting), so the news brought no incremental positive impact;
The probability of a rate hike in December jumped from 75% to 81%–86%, with the market already betting on another 25BP hike on 12/9;
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 5%, the 2-year yield once hit 4.78%, and the dollar approached its yearly high—holding US Treasuries yields 5% interest, while non-yielding BTC is being neglected.
On the funding side, the US BTC spot ETF saw net inflows of about $286 million on 10/26 and 10/27, but $774 million just flowed out on the 22nd–23rd, and the gap has not been filled yet. 💻 I take this message as a failed launch review: Diva Staking announced it will cease operations and will no longer launch the mainnet. Early staking vault deposit users can withdraw their deposits through Enzyme. The team stated that funds were exhausted by mid-2024, and three core members have persisted in development for nearly two and a half years without income or salary.
After reading this, my judgment is: this seems more like a gap between "being able to develop" and "being able to deliver," and cannot be directly inferred as the entire liquid staking sector failing. The hardest hit are early protocols still using development progress to prove mainnet launch capability.
Logically, writing code does not equal a product that can run safely. The team mentioned being unable to afford a new round of audits, indicating that security verification is also a delivery cost and cannot be treated as an afterthought after development ends. Persistence is commendable, but enthusiasm cannot replace acceptance criteria.
The potential bug is that users might misinterpret "continuous development" as "getting closer to launch." This is my speculation: if dependencies like audits cannot be implemented promptly, then new features may not shorten the time to launch but could instead expand the scope needing verification.
If it were me, I would change progress disclosure into a launch condition checklist: what has been verified, what still lacks resources, rather than just looking at update frequency. Please help me review: between "development completed" and "meeting launch conditions," which evidence do you think should be disclosed most? Have I missed any key variables in my judgment?#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
$10.9 billion BTC options expire Friday (Beijing time 16:00)
About 135,000 BTC, nominal value $10.92 billion; ETH options $776 million.
PCR 0.53: Not a bullish signal, but positions are clearly skewed long, with marginal buying actually decreasing.
Max pain point $78,000: Not a target "to be pulled to," but a conditional level.
Key structure: zero Gamma around $80,700.
If held, market makers hedge to suppress volatility;
If effectively broken down, it may accelerate testing $78,000–$76,000.
Macro: FOMC "hawkish pause," two votes for rate hike, December hike priced up to 82.6%; if core PCE inflation rebounds, it will reinforce tightening expectations.
The real variable is whether $80,700 is breached and whether PCE triggers a volatility spike—then Gamma may shift from a "buffer" to an "amplifier." @OKX中文 @OKX星球 $BTC $ZEC The moment the transplanted heart started beating on its own, the heart rate on the monitor was beautiful, but the blood pressure dropped — this was my first reaction after reading this financial report. Revenue surged to 1.424 billion, up 12% year-over-year, setting a record, but net profit fell by 14%, and earnings per share of 0.51 missed expectations. A fast heart rate does not equal sufficient cardiac output; the efficiency of work done per beat is collapsing.
Crypto trading revenue plummeted 55%, down to only 120 million. This is not arrhythmia; this is an acute occlusion of the left main coronary artery. This business used to be their left anterior descending artery, the area with the richest blood supply, but now the blood flow has dropped off a cliff. Event contract revenue surged to 173 million, 6.4 times that of the same period last year — collateral circulation is desperately compensating, but the collateral vessel walls are thin, perfusion pressure unstable, and whether it can nourish the entire myocardium is questionable.
What I am most wary of is this kind of hemodynamic disorder. The old blood supply area is necrotic, and the newly opened small vessels have turbulent but unorganized blood flow. Revenue is still pulsing, but the perfusion pressure of profit is dropping. More troubling is that earnings per share are below expectations, indicating that the capillary bed on the myocardial wall did not catch this wave of perfusion. After surgery, the sutures look good, but the ejection fraction measured by intraoperative ultrasound is dropping. Such patients are sent directly to the ICU, the ventilator is not removed, vasoactive drugs are administered, and they are monitored 24/7.
The 55% collapse in crypto trading is like a suddenly vanished bridge vessel in preoperative angiography; the blood flow silently disappeared. The 6.4-fold increase in event contracts is more like a newly constructed bypass; the lumen is open, but the intima has not healed, and under the blood flow’s scouring, vortices and thrombosis may form at any time. The coexistence of record revenue and declining profit is a typical manifestation of myocardial stunning — the heart is still contracting, but cellular metabolism is already lagging behind.
The ICU will add a bed tonight; the first postoperative night never looks at surface numbers. #robinhoodq3profitfallsTruth Social has turned its posts into a paid API, selling access to Bloomberg, Susquehanna, and Jump Trading, with monthly fees up to $100,000.
What institutions pay for is not the content, but the time advantage. The moment Trump posts, they get it a few seconds earlier than regular users. What does a few seconds mean in crypto? When a tariff news breaks, Bitcoin first drops three points before bouncing back; that fluctuation in between is the price during those few seconds.
The harshest reality in crypto markets is not leverage, but information speed. Retail investors often see news as the third-hand version: the first-hand is the paid API, the second-hand is the market maker’s algorithm, and the third-hand is your timeline. You think you’re chasing news, but you’re actually chasing others’ transaction prices.
Institutions willing to pay $100,000 have done the math; a single early position adjustment can recoup the cost. So this speed stratification will only become more common—market delays, node priority, paid channels are essentially the same business.
The practical takeaway for ordinary people: don’t compete on speed. Position your trades where you don’t need to jump the gun, and shift your focus from the first moment to the second layer of understanding. How the market digests news after it breaks is more valuable than the news itself.
Mainstream assets like $BTC and $ETH react to news increasingly briefly, spiking then returning to the original trend. Speedsters profit from instant price differences, while those who stay in the market profit from the trend. Recognizing this is more useful than reading ten more news flashes.Before the earnings bell rings, a major move has already been made on the chessboard: SanDisk set its quarterly revenue guidance at $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion. This is not just an announcement, but a resounding check in the middle game. The market is focused on AI data center demand and flash price hikes, questioning whether the storage business can maintain strength; I am focused on the pawn chain—demand is the central control, price hikes are the pawns on the path, and capital expenditure is the hidden counterplay. If you only see the upper revenue range, it's like only noticing the opponent's sacrificed piece without calculating the promotion twenty moves ahead.
AI data centers are not just a slogan; they are like pawns occupying the central squares, providing spatial advantage for flash demand. Rising flash prices are like pushing pawns to the sixth rank, forcing the opponent into compulsory moves. But storage cycles are never linear: the higher the price, the more supply elasticity resembles a lurking bishop, ready to counterattack along a long diagonal. SanDisk's challenge is not whether this quarter is good, but whether gross margin improvement can translate into cash flow and capacity discipline; if revenue hits the upper range but profits rely on price pulses, that is a tactical gain but a strategic loss. Grandmasters do not cheer for every pawn or minor piece, only for coordinated forces.
Next, consider the linkage with XDELL. Dell is positioned on the flanks of servers and storage, while SanDisk is the bishop's eye of flash supply; the two are not simply aligned but engaged in a structural game after piece exchanges. If AI server orders push flash demand as pawns on the path, XDELL has flank support; if flash price hikes backfire on overall machine costs, the linkage becomes a restraint: one side checks, the other blocks its own king's path. The most dangerous thing on earnings night is not low numbers, but guidance without promotion—revenue exceeding expectations but not lifting future trajectory is like sacrificing a piece to lure the enemy; revenue within range but delivering stronger gross margin and supply discipline is turning initiative into a winning position.
In my calculation tree, there are only three key moves: whether AI demand turns flash from a cyclical product into a structural bottleneck; whether flash price hikes can be locked by capacity discipline; and whether XDELL's linkage is force coordination or cost backlash. All three point to the same endgame: whoever controls inventory and pricing power holds the pawns on the path. Earnings are just the pressing of the chess clock; the real victory lies in the structure of guidance and gross margin. If you only capture tactical pieces without improving pawn structure, XDELL's linkage is just an empty castle after piece exchanges. #sandiskq1storagegrowth BTC is now around 79,900, having dropped back below 80,000. It feels like deleveraging is happening, but panic hasn't set in yet.
Sentiment: The Coinglass Fear & Greed Index is at 50, right in the middle. A week ago it was still in the greed zone above 60. After the Fed's two votes for a rate hike and Google's after-hours drop of over 10% last night, the heat has cooled off.
Leverage: The total contract open interest across the network decreased by 2.9% in 24 hours, with liquidations at $337 million, more than double the previous day. The long-short ratio is 50:50. Funding rates for BTC are 0.0025% on Binance and 0.0076% on OKX, both below the 0.01% benchmark. Long positions are not crowded but haven't turned negative, and shorts haven't pushed up yet.
Liquidation heatmap: The brightest area between 80,200 and 80,400 has already been breached. The nearest recent support below is at 79,300, less than 1% from the current price; above, a thick short position cluster only appears at 82,000.
The biggest risk is stablecoins. According to DefiLlama, the total market cap of stablecoins is $300.3 billion, down from $306.4 billion a month ago, a decrease of $6 billion. No new off-exchange funds are coming in, so when prices rise, liquidity is lacking. The ETF inflows in the past two days are the only source of new capital.
I estimate that in the short term, longs at 79,300 will likely be swept first, but the big picture remains a range-bound consolidation between 78,000 and 82,000. A true bottom signal requires three conditions to be met simultaneously: funding rates turning negative, the fear index dropping below 30, and stablecoin supply growing again. None of these are present now. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 📉 $BTC is around $79,938, with US Treasury yields and the dollar still putting pressure on the market.
I'm watching $79,775: this level has been tested 5 times as support and held 5 times, never broken.
Open interest dropped 1.3% in 24 hours, price fell 1.5%, indicating longs are closing positions, not new shorts entering; breaking below $79,775 means greater downside risk.
The Fed rate decision and US PCE inflation data are both around October 29, so key levels might not behave as usual. In the short term, do you think it will rebound or continue down? #Председатель Федеральной резервной системы Уош заявил, что политика не повлияла на решение по ставкам