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After one night, the answer is revealed: Google didn't hold up, Microsoft did, and the market's rewards and punishments are very clear.
On Google's side, revenue was $127.58 billion, up 25% year-over-year, which looks good but is still slightly below market expectations; more painfully, earnings per share were only $2.12, compared to an expected nearly $3 — an $8.7 billion securities investment loss directly dragged net profit down by 25%. The only bright spot was the cloud business, with revenue of $30.7 billion, more than doubling year-over-year. After-hours stock price once dropped over 8%.
Microsoft's side painted a different picture: revenue was $92.28 billion, exceeding the $90.6 billion expectation; earnings per share were $4.89, also surpassing the roughly $4.72 expected; Azure growth was 48%, even stronger than the expected 44%–45%; capital expenditures were not as scary as the market feared. After-hours, the stock rose about 4%.
The same night, the same AI money-burning story, the market gave two verdicts: burning money is acceptable, but the accounts must add up. Google’s cloud is impressive, but the books are dragging it down; Microsoft exceeded expectations across the board and spent money more prudently than expected.
In the crypto world, $BTC this morning was $81,194, standing back above $81,000; $ETH was $2,357, +0.3%, holding steady. The two big companies had one penalty and one reward, but the crypto market didn’t follow with big swings. #微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ $PEPE ETH short liquidations exceed $1.1 billion, but the fuel for this rally is a "short squeeze," not spot buying. Before the FOMC decision, the risk of chasing highs far outweighs the rewards.
$ETH is quoted at 2,357.55 (+1.01%). This $1.1 billion liquidation mostly comes from leveraged positions; the real large-scale short liquidation zone is above $2,891. The impulse caused by a short squeeze is often rapid but short-lived, with resistance still dense above.
$BTC is quoted at 81,260.4 (+0.92%). It has reclaimed above 81,000, but the macro resistance zone at $82,000 has not been effectively broken. Under existing supply and demand battles, the market direction still faces a choice.
$SOL is quoted at 102.29 (+1.27%). The price rebound diverges from the continuous ten-day net outflow of funds from ETFs. Although the ecosystem is active, funds are withdrawing, making it difficult to strengthen independently amid macro uncertainty.
Summary
The rise driven by a short squeeze is prone to sharp declines after rapid gains. After shorts are fully liquidated, without macro tailwinds and spot inflows to follow, the pressure for a pullback will increase sharply. Defense is paramount before the decision.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Microsoft's earnings report isn't actually bad: Azure grew 48%, and free cash flow remains stable. But after reading it, I'm not optimistic at all.
Because on the same night, Google plunged 10% after hours due to "spending so much money but seeing no AI returns." Putting the two earnings reports together, the glaring common point is: capital expenditures are still out of control and soaring, with Microsoft's next quarter capex guidance directly calling for over $50 billion.
The only difference is—Microsoft can still temporarily spin the story with "cloud is growing," but Google can't spin it tonight. The market is shifting from "all AI is rising" to "only AI that can monetize is recognized." This shift is far more important than whether interest rates go up or down.
Once the divergence starts, it won't just kill one. Who tells an unconvincing story next is the one to really watch.
Which one do you bet won't hold up first? BTC ETF fund flow turns negative again! (｡•́︿•̀ω•́｡)
In June, ETF net outflow was $4.5 billion, then $6.2 billion flowed back in August-September, funds are like a roller coaster. Entering October, the trend changes again: so far a net outflow of $203 million, institutional sentiment clearly turning cautious. Today the Fed interest rate decision is coming, the market is more focused on the "signal" rather than a single data point: if the wording is dovish and ETFs subsequently turn positive consecutively, BTC is expected to stabilize and recover; if hawkish combined with expanding outflows, short-term pressure probability rises (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Market interpretation: short-term oscillation is weak, mid-term not pessimistic, key is the liquidity inflection point. Don’t rush to guess tops or bottoms, ETF fund flow is the "thermometer" of institutional sentiment, the Fed is a short-term catalyst 👀
Keep a close eye on continuous ETF net inflows/outflows and the Fed’s path, the answer will gradually emerge～
$BTC
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
#BitcoinETF #BTC #美联储 #资金流Total market cap returns to 3 trillion, but BTC has fallen from 87,000 to 81,316 — 3 trillion is a mirror of sentiment, not a pool of funds.
$BTC: $81,316. Above $87,000 is a cost-intensive zone for buyers over the past two years; selling pressure has twice ended this year's rally. This surge was accompanied by short squeeze and leverage buildup; 87,000 looks more like a short-term overheating ceiling rather than the start of a new trend.
$ETH: $2,359. ETFs still saw a net outflow of $88.6 million in a single day, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for the majority. The staking narrative (Fidelity and BlackRock pushing ETF staking) runs parallel with capital outflows. $2,400 is the first test to see if the "yield-bearing asset" narrative can withstand selling pressure.
$SOL: $102.4. On-chain transactions exceeded 9 billion in October, but TVL dropped from 6.42 billion to 5.76 billion, a decline of 10.28%, with outflows faster than ETH. Users remain, but capital is withdrawing; $100 is a fragile defensive line amid liquidity contraction.
Summary: The 3 trillion total market cap is a product of short covering and sentiment recovery, not a signal of broad rotation. If BTC does not hold above 87,000, rotation is just a back-and-forth of existing funds among several major coins.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 The Federal Reserve's decision last night was a 10 to 2 vote. Officials Cook and Harker directly voted against, advocating an immediate 25 basis point rate hike.
$BTC ETF inflows
Spot $BTC ETFs have seen net inflows for two consecutive days, with BlackRock's IBIT buying $151.5 million in a single day, and Fidelity's FBTC adding $24.5 million.
Capital is highly concentrated, meaning the ETF's support is monopolar; if IBIT turns, the entire ETF buying will quickly thin out.
The options market shows a short-to-medium term divergence.
Deribit data indicates Bitcoin's one-week put/call skew has dropped from nearly 10% a week ago to less than 1%, showing a clear weakening in short-term downside protection demand.
However, the one-month, three-month, and six-month terms still lean toward put options. This suggests traders' concerns about the FOMC window itself are decreasing, but there is no shift toward optimism in the long term.
The liquidation map clearly marks the downside risk.
Around $78,000, nearly $3 billion in long liquidations are piled up. QCP Capital defines $78,000 as support, $86,000 as resistance, and $77,000–$78,000 as the lower bound buyers must defend.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Money is choosing sides, BTC's ETF is back, while ETH's is still ongoing.
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $176 million on Tuesday, $110 million on Monday, totaling $286 million in two days, with IBIT alone accounting for $152 million.
ETH ETF is moving in the opposite direction, with a combined outflow of about $149 million on Monday and Tuesday, and a total outflow of $1.32 billion in October, nearly matching the worst month.
Prices haven't diverged though; BTC is now at 81,326, up 0.72%, ETH at 2,360, up 0.55%, both still hovering around their previous levels.
I think this divergence is more worth watching than the price: institutions are putting money back into the most stable one first, ETH's funding hasn't kept up, so don't get too excited above 2,360.
$BTC $ETH
Not investment advice #Strategy earnings preview: The significant rebound in BTC's book profits indicates a warming confidence in institutional holdings, with risk appetite spillover being somewhat positive for high-beta assets like DOT, but I will not chase the rally because of this. The market, however, is not cooperating: current price 1.0091, both the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are trending downward, the 4-hour has retraced 18.36% from the high, the buy/sell ratio in the top 10 levels is only 0.47, showing clear selling pressure dominance, and the funding rate of 0.0065% indicates longs are still paying to hold positions, reflecting fragile sentiment. Discipline-wise, I only do two things: place a short at 1.0315 with a stop loss at 1.0458 and a target of 0.9912; if there is a sharp drop to 0.9885, lightly buy with a stop loss at 0.9742 and a target of 1.0186. Single position size does not exceed 5%, exit immediately on stop loss, no holding through losses, no adding to positions.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$DOT#Strategy earnings preview: The significant rebound in BTC's book profits
#Strategy earnings preview: The significant rebound in BTC's book profits
$DOT Microsoft's earnings report shows GAAP EPS of 4.92, with no one-time items this quarter, and Azure grew by 48%.
MSFT's GAAP diluted EPS this quarter is 4.92, non-GAAP is 4.89, consensus was 4.71. The difference between the two numbers this time is +0.03, and the press release attributes this to net income from OpenAI.
The phrase "discrete items" from last quarter does not appear this time, and there is no mention of one-time items in the press release. The portion of non-GAAP exceeding expectations comes from the core business.
4.89 - 4.71 = 0.18
The forward estimate was 4.88, actual was 4.92. The core business is estimated to exceed by 0.20, actual is 0.18, roughly the same. OpenAI was estimated to reduce by 0.03, actual added 0.03, the direction was estimated incorrectly, but the amount is very small.
Azure grew 48% this quarter, 48% at constant currency as well, guidance was 44% to 45%. According to the revised September methodology, last quarter was 42%. The forward-looking reminder is not to compare with the old 43% figure; whichever is used now, it clearly shows acceleration.
Capital expenditures were not mentioned in the main text of the press release this quarter; the cash flow statement shows $39.4 billion spent on fixed assets, last quarter was $35.8 billion. Guidance will be provided during the conference call.
OKEx's MSFT perpetual was around 532 before the numbers came out, peaked at 565.7, and was at 554.9 around 4 AM Beijing time, up about 4%.
Did this quarter beat expectations? Yes, 4.92 is higher than 4.82. When I see this kind of news, my first thought isn't which sector will rise, but who bears the risk and who takes the income. No matter how big the direction is, if the price is prematurely overdrawn, the odds can also be poor.
Y Combinator released the October 2026 crypto startup guide, pointing out that for the first time in the past year, industry growth was led by institutions rather than consumers, focusing on asset tokenization, stablecoins, and AI trading agents. I pay more attention to the first two: corporate capital flow has real demand, which has a better chance of generating sustained income than relying solely on speculative heat; asset on-chain still has to pass the two hurdles of ownership confirmation and liquidity, it’s not just about issuing a token.
My judgment is that this means more for financial infrastructure than for sentiment around concept coins. If actual usage increases and income can cover compliance and operating costs, then I think it’s worth continuing to study; if it’s just changing the narrative to boost valuation, the expectations may not be worthwhile. Whether AI agents can become users who pay continuously is what I want to watch next.$GOOGL
1 billion. Gemini's app user count officially surpassed 1 billion today, and Google's celebration article hasn't even cooled down yet, but the stock price fell 8.5% in after-hours trading.
What really upset the market was another matter: Alphabet raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion to $205 billion and also led the bond issuance for Anthropic's Texas data center. Now the banking industry has put this issuance on hold, and Fitch has also come out warning that the AI boom combined with rising yields threatens the global market.
I tested the market: OKX's GOOGL token contract is currently priced at $294, down more than 9% in 24 hours, hitting a low of $288. Meanwhile, Microsoft's Azure revenue grew 48%, and its stock price rose 6%. The market doesn't disbelieve AI; it just dislikes how fast you're spending money.
The user count surpassing 1 billion is real growth, and burning money to the point Wall Street feels sorry is also true. Both things are true at the same time, and that's the most unreasonable part of earnings season. By the way, a bit of self-mockery: I worry about their hundreds of billions budget with my little capital, and no one pays me for being stunned.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $SNDK
An SK Hynix executive said at last night's earnings call: AI storage demand will outpace supply, continuing until 2030. Hearing this from the manufacturer carries more weight than from analysts.
The numbers are solid. SK Hynix's Q3 revenue more than tripled year-over-year, operating profit increased sixfold, and the stock price jumped 13%. SanDisk followed suit, with US stocks rising up to 6% last night. I tested OKX's SNDK token contract; the current price is $1368, with a 24-hour high of $1421.
This is interesting. Over the past month, SanDisk fell from over 1800 to 1238, dropping 30%, with widespread talk of a storage cycle peak. But then a peer mentioned shortages lasting until 2030, and the funds returned.
Tonight after US market close, it will release earnings, with company guidance of $10.3 to $10.8 billion in revenue. Whether it's peaked or not, the data will decide. Anyway, I've learned my lesson: manufacturer orders are more honest than candlestick charts.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 The headline scenario is arresting: a hacked Satoshi Nakamoto wallet, a forced liquidation, and $BTC collapsing 80% in seconds. The figure of $88.3 billion gives the story its menace. But the leap from stolen coins to instant market collapse hides more than it reveals. A compromised wallet does not hand an attacker a working exit. It hands them a problem. Size is the first obstacle. Selling a fortune in $BTC requires buyers on the other side, and liquidity is not a constant. Order books thin undGoogle's Q3 earnings per share were 2.12, with holdings only dragging it down by 0.55; most of the remaining gap is in the core business.
GOOGL's Q3 GAAP diluted EPS was 2.12, while the consensus expectation excluding holdings was around 3.02. The impact of holdings is clearly stated in the press release.
Holdings had a pre-tax loss of $8.7 billion, after tax $6.7 billion, reducing EPS by 0.55. Adding that back, it still falls short of consensus by over 0.30.
2.12 + 0.55 = 2.67
So the underperformance this quarter is only partly on the books; most of the rest is in the core business. Operating margin was 31.8%, down from 34% in Q2.
The forward estimate was 2.24, let's compare. The loss from holdings was overestimated; SpaceX plus other listed holdings were estimated at 0.74 per share, actual was 0.55. The core business was overestimated; excluding holdings, the estimate was about 2.98, actual 2.67. Offsetting each other, the final difference was 0.12. The forward-looking headline "The drag is SpaceX, not the business" is only half correct.
Google Cloud is the positive side. Revenue was $30.7 billion, up 103% year-over-year, consensus was $29.16 billion. Q3 capital expenditure was 51.4 billion, totaling about 132 billion for the first three quarters.
OKEx's GOOGL perpetual was around 326 before the numbers, dropped below 300 within minutes, at about 4 a.m. Beijing time it was 300.7, down about 7.8%.
Did this quarter beat expectations? Choose No; GAAP 2.12 did not beat 3.10, also No.The UAE's money is treating Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
SAC announced the establishment of its headquarters in Abu Dhabi and simultaneously launched a $1.5 billion investment strategy with a dual approach: one leg buys local real estate to generate income through rent; the other leg builds a Bitcoin reserve, exclusively managed by Coinbase Asset Management, aiming to generate additional returns from the holdings.
This structure is worth a close look. Real estate provides predictable cash flow, Bitcoin offers long-term appreciation flexibility, and the asset manager is responsible for enhancing returns without selling the principal. These three elements are combined into one pool, balancing risk and return, which is a typical long-term institutional approach rather than a short-term position chasing price spikes.
More importantly, this is a signal. Sovereign-level capital from the Middle East, which previously only made tentative contacts with crypto assets, is now directly incorporating them into formal investment frameworks, complete with custody and asset management arrangements. This means the nature of the incoming funds has changed: from trading capital to allocation capital. Allocation capital tends to buy and hold with little movement, improving the chip structure over the long term and having limited impact on short-term price stimulation.
Therefore, such news should not be treated as a single bullish candlestick for trading. What really needs attention is what follows: whether a second or third Gulf capital will replicate this structure. If $1.5 billion is just the beginning, Bitcoin's marginal buying demand gains a stable new source. The $BTC story is shifting from a retail narrative to a balance sheet narrative.The market took the Fed's decision to hold steady as a known outcome, yet the close was still in the green. The S&P rose 0.28% to 7743.98, the Nasdaq gained 0.27% to 26549.85, and the Dow increased 0.19% to 52475.10. All three indices closed near their highs but traded sideways repeatedly during the session, indicating that investors did not see this as the start of a bull run, just a confirmation that there was no unexpected shock. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4% with a 10-to-2 vote, with two members favoring a rate hike. The statement changed the description of economic activity from "solid" to "strong," while inflation was still described as "elevated." Chairman Waller emphasized after the meeting that more data is needed. The bond market wavered, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing near 5%, not fully suppressed. The market is trading on the idea that the pace of rate hikes is temporarily paused, but no one believes inflation is over. The real drivers pushing the indices are storage and AI infrastructure. Micron rose nearly 6%, Broadcom also had a good gain, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index strengthened. South Korea's SK Hynix reported profits soaring sevenfold, with orders lined up through 2029, reaffirming expectations of memory shortages. Oracle surged over 10% intraday as investors raised their long-term revenue targets more aggressively. Nvidia, however, fell more than 1% that day, becoming a drag. This is not a broad tech rally but capital focusing on the tightest links in the AI supply chain. After hours, Microsoft and Google released earnings. Microsoft's cloud business exceeded expectations, while Google's revenue fell short, causing their after-hours stock prices to diverge. The tech sector held up during the session partly because some were waiting for these two companies' final answers. CanFederal Reserve October Meeting: Pause Does Not Equal Pivot
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75%–4.00% in October, with a 10-to-2 vote and two dissenting votes favoring a rate hike. On the surface, this "meets expectations," but in reality, it leans hawkish and cautious: the possibility of a rate hike in December remains, and rate cuts are not under discussion. Cook cast his first dissenting vote, citing inflationary pressures from AI infrastructure; Walsh reminded that AI expansion is not immune to interest rate effects, as rates transmit to nearly all assets, and some credit spreads have already widened. The statement removed forward guidance, and future strategic meetings without voting will be added, signaling a clear narrowing of communication. Tightening credit conditions are not an urgent concern for the Fed to hedge against. For the US stock and crypto markets, do not interpret the "pause" as a "pivot" in the short term: high rates continue to suppress valuations, and small to mid-sized projects with high financing dependence are more sensitive to credit spreads. The focus going forward is whether credit spreads will continue to widen. This does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH It's almost 8 AM, just brewed some coffee and glanced at last night's ETF data, and it made me laugh. This isn't Wall Street institutions; it's basically a large-scale split personality scene! Don't rush to check the market; these core data sets are today's indicators.
$BTC was dumping over 70 million a few days ago, but yesterday the trend suddenly changed! Not only did it not run away, it actually saw a slight inflow of 160,000, and the day before yesterday it aggressively poured in 21.96 million. What does this mean? At the 80,000 level, institutions are reluctant to cut losses; big money's attitude has shifted from withdrawing to lying flat and watching.
Looking at $ETH, the drama is the richest here! BlackRock was still aggressively selling over 40,000 yesterday, but Fidelity and Grayscale mini trusts turned around and bought nearly 20,000, forcibly turning the total volume into a net inflow of 19.58 million. This shows that smart money has huge divergences at this Ethereum level, but the bottom support is clearly strengthening; someone is quietly accumulating.
Finally, $SOL is still a bit miserable, with another 56,300 running out yesterday. Although it’s still outflowing, compared to the massive losses of tens of thousands in previous days, the selling pressure has indeed weakened a lot.
Summary: The data is very clear. Institutions are not only stopping the dumping but have even started to support Ethereum. Although the overall market is still fluctuating, the most panic-driven one-sided sell-off is likely over. Chasing shorts now is definitely reckless, but don’t go all-in betting on a reversal either.
Since institutions are reluctant to dump the market, do you think Bitcoin can lead a volume-backed rebound today?
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Three prices, three quiet shifts in market plumbing. At $BTC 80,680, the Coinbase premium is narrowing. Bitcoin still trades at a slight markup on the US exchange, but the gap has compressed — retail buyers in the US are still present, just no longer rushing. That distinction matters. A premium that shrinks without flipping negative points to fading urgency rather than exit. At $ETH 2,338, the median gas fee is falling this month, and the cause is not weaker activity. Transactions have migrated DEX daily trading volume is only $900, has CORE's DeFi ecosystem 'died'?
A single-chain DEX daily trading volume as low as $900 is a striking figure, directly reflecting that DeFi liquidity on the Core chain has severely dried up. But it is important to distinguish: the BTC consensus staking layer ≠ Core chain DeFi application layer; these are two completely independent systems, so we cannot directly conclude that the entire project is completely dead. ✅ Current analysis: On the Core chain, DeFi protocols like Colend and COREx have seen liquidity and traders massively withdraw, DEX slippage is huge, and ordinary users are no longer willing to perform token swaps or lending operations on the Core chain. The on-chain DeFi application layer is nearly in shock. The DeFi ecosystem cannot generate enough fee income, so the foundation's envisioned fee buyback CORE flywheel naturally struggles to operate. ❌ However, the project has not completely zeroed out. The Satoshi Plus consensus layer still has BTC participating in staking, and institutional BTCFi products like Nawa Finance are still advancing. Its narrative foundation does not rely on ordinary retail DeFi trading but on Bitcoin staking yield, which is also the biggest difference from ordinary EVM public chains. Ordinary public chains rely on on-chain trading and lending for income, while CORE's value proposition depends on Bitcoin staking business for revenue. ⚠️ Core risk: Even if BTC staking data remains acceptable, the collapse of on-chain DeFi activity is still a huge negative. Without active trading users on-chain, it is very difficult for new ecosystem projects to... South Korean AI chip startup FuriosaAI has completed a $620 million Series D funding round, with a valuation of $2.9 billion. Investors include Jericho Capital, the Korea Growth Fund, among others, with existing shareholders Naver, Korea Development Bank, and Kakao Investment all participating. The Export-Import Bank of Korea made its first direct investment in a startup.
Looking at the structure first. Policy banks, sovereign funds, and industrial capital all appear on the same list, which is uncommon in Asian semiconductor financing. The Export-Import Bank previously only provided credit guarantees; this time it took direct equity, effectively elevating AI chips to the status of a strategic asset.
Next, the direction. Over the past two years, AI funding has mainly focused on the model and application layers. Capital expenditure on chips is heavy and cycles are long, so it has been underestimated. This round’s valuation reaching $2.9 billion indicates that capital is starting to replenish positions at the very upstream of computing power.
For the crypto market, this kind of news affects sentiment rather than cash flow. Decentralized computing power networks rely on GPU supply and demand for pricing, AI application tokens rely on product iteration for pricing, and hardware-end financing has a more direct transmission effect on the former. $TAO is a liquidity-leading token in this narrative and usually moves first when news breaks.
However, financing is a signal of market prosperity, not token fundamentals. Industry investment only shows the sector is not cooling down; it does not mean token revenue will increase. If you want to participate, waiting for a pullback and observing trading volume is safer than chasing highs on the day of the news. CORE on-chain TVL dropped from 1 billion to 4 million, yet BTC staking is still rising. Who is swimming naked?
Many people are misled by the data, thinking that BTC staking growth equals the entire ecosystem's prosperity. But the core truth is: the BTC staking funds of CORE and the TVL of Core chain DeFi are two separate sets of funds. BTC staking is locked on the Bitcoin mainnet through CLTV time locks; the assets have not crossed over into Core chain's DeFi contracts, they are only used to participate in the Satoshi Plus consensus to earn CORE rewards. Meanwhile, the TVL that everyone sees plummeting is the liquidity funds inside DeFi applications like Colend and DEX on the Core chain.
✅ Why is there a split market: BTC whales value self-custody staking, keeping assets on the Bitcoin chain with risk isolation, and are willing to continuously participate in consensus staking; however, retail investors and DeFi speculative funds have massively withdrawn from various DeFi protocols on the Core chain, causing on-chain trading and lending activities to shrink rapidly, directly resulting in a cliff drop in DeFi sector TVL.
❌ Who is swimming naked? 1. The DeFi ecosystem has been voted with feet by funds: the collapse of on-chain DeFi TVL means active funds willing to lend and trade on the Core chain have largely fled, and the real activity of ecosystem applications is very poor; 2. BTC staking can only guarantee participation at the consensus layer and cannot directly convert into Core chain DeFi fee income, making it difficult to create sustained buy pressure for the CORE token; 3. Added to this is the withdrawal of independent validators.The chain has been down for almost six days, and the coin has risen by 75%
Initia's L1 has been down since the night of October 23.
I checked the official status page early today, all green, saying all services are online.
I casually curl'ed the node, got a 502.
During the same period, INIT rose from 0.1267 to above 0.22.
At 22:59 on October 23, someone exploited a MoveVM script cache vulnerability to forge status.
They arbitrarily credited WETH, iUSD, USDC, and transferred over two million.
INIT itself was not inflated.
The next day, the team proactively shut down L1 and all Rollups, and Upbit and Bithumb suspended INIT deposits and withdrawals that night.
Then the coin started to rise.
I originally wanted to write about the largest transaction ever, but after checking data since February, it seems not.
On October 28, 78 million, the largest since February, 79 times the average volume of the previous twenty days.
I've actually been watching this for a long time.
The chain is down, unlocking can't proceed, exchanges can't access it, so the circulating supply is effectively physically removed.
Short sellers have no coins to deliver, so the price drifts upward, unrelated to optimism.
So I don't chase it.
If it breaks above 0.2577 with volume, that's real buying, I acknowledge that.
If it falls below 0.1896 and can't recover, the second phase begins.
The day of the restart announcement is the real test.
On the day of the restart, guess if it will rebound or drop?
$INIT
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard Don't be fooled by FOMO: How to operate CORE at its current position
The community is spreading narratives like "miss it and wait three years" and "whales quietly accumulating," which easily trigger FOMO emotions and impulsive buying. But the area around $0.017 is just a speculative position, not a clear bottom. You must strictly distinguish between position size and expectations in your operations. ✅If you haven't taken a position yet, don't go all in at once. CORE still faces three major core risks: continuous withdrawal of independent validators, 69 million ghost tokens that could dump at any time, and the SatPay and revenue buyback flywheel not yet implemented. Even if the BTCFi sector warms up, it's only a wave rebound. If you want to participate, only use a very small position to test the waters, define this fund as track speculation capital, so even if you lose it all, it won't affect your total capital. Set stop-losses in advance and decisively exit once key support is broken. ✅If you already hold a position: don't add to your position or average down impulsively because of FOMO talk in the community. Continuously track two core leading indicators: changes in the number of independent validators and whether whale addresses are continuously transferring funds into exchanges. If validators stabilize and fundamentals show substantial improvement, you can keep your original position; if ghost tokens or whales are continuously withdrawing to dump, consider reducing your position to lock in some tokens and lower holding risk. ❌The biggest pitfall: equating "oversold" with "certain to surge," getting caught up in narratives of 100x or 60x gains and adding more positions, sinking deeper into losses. CORE is a high-risk, high-reward speculative asset, not a value bottom position.Seeing WLFI and TRUMP weaken together, many people's first reaction is "the market is going to crash." Is that really the case? My strongest impression from watching the market these past two days is: this looks more like a localized retreat, not a sudden contraction of risk appetite across the entire market. Companies related to the Trump family have started to hire lawyers intensively, and the market is guessing whether their influence will be discounted after the midterm elections, so WLFI and TRUMP are being priced in first. But pay attention to the rhythm—WLFI has been steadily declining since its launch, RSI at 36.5, MA7 at 0.0537, MA20 at 0.0555, MA30 at 0.0556, all three moving averages pressing down from above, with a 30-day position of only 12.6%. This is a typical pattern of divergence followed by a downward trend and low-level consolidation, not a panic sell-off. TRUMP is even more obvious, with EMA20 at 1.80, EMA50 at 1.90, EMA200 at 2.22, a bearish alignment; every rebound meets selling pressure, and the intraday pivot at 1.68 is the last cover—if it closes below that, there will truly be no support left. The signal I see is: funds are not withdrawing from all risk assets but are making cuts within sectors. Political narrative tokens are being cut first because their valuations include "policy dividend" expectations, and once election uncertainty arises, this premium is squeezed out first. BTC surged to 81303 then slipped, with 145.7 million liquidated in 24 hours, 77% of which were shorts, indicating the rise was driven by short squeezes, not spot buying support, so the support is naturally weak. If Trump is truly weakened after the midterm elections, BTC breaking below 75After the FOMC decision, BTC briefly surged to 81,000, but the pressure to break even at 87,000 remains.
The policy kept the interest rate unchanged, BTC briefly broke through 81,000, currently at 80,500, down slightly by 0.12% in 24 hours. Buyers' costs over the past two years are concentrated above 87,000; this level suppressed rebounds twice this year, each followed by at least a 25% pullback; ETF holders' average cost is about 81,500, with the price below this line, reducing unrealized loss pressure and supporting on-chain.
$BTC is about 80,500. ETF inflows over two days total 286 million, with IBIT alone accounting for 151.5 million, FBTC only 24.5 million, and the rest almost zero; October net outflow narrowed to about 26 million. Money is returning, but the entry points are very narrow.
$ETH is about 2,340. October ETF net outflow is 1.32 billion, just about 100 million shy of the historical record. The 2,310–2,328 range overlaps on-chain cost, 200-day EMA, and cost of addresses holding a thousand tokens; the daily close at 2,310 is critical.
$SOL is about 101.9. SOL ETF single-day outflow was 19.16 million, the largest since December 2025; weekly outflow was 27.38 million, the worst single week since launch. 100 dollars is the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern; daily chart confirmed a breakdown, 80 only comes into view then.
In short: BTC's ETF only opened two entry points, ETH is confronting between cost zone and record outflows, SOL just experienced its worst single week. Money is neither panicking nor spreading.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 BTC returns to 80,000, the excitement varies (◔‿◔)
$BTC is back at 80,350, the 80,000 whole number level has been reclaimed, but it hasn't yet crossed the "actual traded high" area around 80,497. The price improvement is a fact, and the direction is also uncertain—a burden the 80,000 level itself doesn't carry (￣▽￣)ノ
$BICO rose 1.5% to 0.01523, but the 24-hour trading volume is only 157,000 USDT. The increase shows there is direction, but how a slightly larger order is executed, this data doesn't provide a reference. Price advancement and execution conditions need to be analyzed separately (・_・;)
$RE rose 2.8% to 0.3721, with the contract funding rate dropping from 0.0050% to 0.0024%, reducing the holding cost for long positions. The rebound didn't simultaneously raise this expense, which is quite comfortable. But the funding rate only concerns holding costs, not direction—two different things (｡•̀ᴗ-)✧
$XRP rose 1.9% to 1.3185, previously paused at 1.3086, now moving into a higher area, leaving new trading traces above 1.31. This upward move has a comparable price process, so the evaluation shifts from "narrow tug-of-war" to a more positive one, based on the distance crossed, without adding explanatory news (＾▽＾)
All are in the green, but BICO lacks trading references, RE benefits from lower funding rates, and XRP has a price process—the excitement differs, so what you look at shouldn't be the same (￣ω￣)
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve decision was announced.
10 to 2, maintaining 3.75%–4.00%.
Two dissenting votes, both advocating for a rate hike.
⚖️ Hawkish pause
The dissenters were Cook and Harker.
Both wanted a 25 basis point increase.
There was just a hike in September.
Now some think it's still not tight enough.
🗣 Wash sets the tone
"Don't trust forward guidance unless there's a crisis."
Meaning no roadmap is given.
He also said they are ready to take action.
📊 December is fully priced in
By December, 23.4 basis points are priced in.
At 25 basis points per hike, about a 94% probability.
By March next year, a total of 46 basis points.
Almost two hikes.
Before the meeting, this number was only 67%.
🪙 Crypto didn't keep up
BTC 81,338, up 0.64% in 24 hours.
Fear & Greed Index 51, neutral.
Interest rate market at 94%, sentiment index still in the middle.
🎯 Three scenarios ahead
1. December hike with softer wording: already priced in, no new shock.
2. Oil prices fall, inflation expectations decline: December hike fails, market reverses.
3. Inflation rises: steeper path, 46 basis points not enough.
👀 I'm watching three things
Oil prices.
Inflation expectations before December.
Whether the Fear & Greed Index can move away from 50.
Data: FOMC statement and Wash press conference (10-29 03:44) #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 The beautiful upward curve on the ECG often appears during the last compensatory contraction before cardiac arrest.
$IMX currently shows textbook-level compensation. It has risen 3.56% on the books in 24 hours, with a decent uphill slope on the monitor that looks like resuscitation. But when you press the probe down for an ultrasound—the Bollinger Bands short-term position has already hit 111%, the price is hanging outside the upper band, with only -0.3% margin from the upper band and a 3.4% gap from the lower band. The vessel walls have expanded to the limit, and pushing forward leaves basically no room. This is tachycardia after blood loss, not the myocardium exerting force.
The most critical factor is the long-term cycle: RSI is only 52.8, neutral. The short-term 68.2 is excited, but the long-term 52.8 means no real blood supply. Heart rate is pulled to 120, but stroke volume is insufficient; you wouldn’t dare touch adrenaline with this patient. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 89%, +0.5% from the upper band, +4.4% from the lower band—the space is already pressed to the ceiling, and a pullback only needs a sigh.
So my judgment is straightforward: superficially rising, essentially ischemic. The direction is short, and I sign off on it. What’s being shorted is not the price, but a circulatory system that has exhausted its compensatory capacity.
The surgical plan must be precise to the millimeter, not based on feel:
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.13 (current price +2.7%)
Take Profit 1: 0.12 (-6.2%)
Take Profit 2: 0.12 (-4.2%)
Stop Loss: 0.14 (+13.2%)
The entry point is set 2.7% above the current price, equivalent to waiting for a postoperative rebound before reopening the chest, not chasing a pulsating artery cut. The two take profit levels fall between 4.2% and 6.2%, which corresponds exactly to the normal path of price falling from the upper band back to the middle band—not violent bloodletting, but isotonic replenishment. Why dare set the stop loss at +13.2%? Because you must allow room for reperfusion injury: if the price can push up another 13%, it means the baseline of 52.8 has changed, and then the lesion is no longer overbought, and I misread the scan—time to step back.
The odds are not pretty. 6.2 to 13.2 equals only half the survival benefit of a bypass. So this surgery can only be a local excision, never open chest—the position size is pressed to a level that can withstand one defibrillation shock. Anyone who treats these odds as the main operation will end up dying from their own shaky hands.
Final determination: the short-term 68.2 is a false positive; the long-term 52.8 is the true negative.Look beyond the earnings report to Strategy's “wallet discipline”
After the market close on October 29, Strategy will release its Q3 earnings report. Preliminary data shows its Q3 digital asset fair value gains are expected to reach $20.9 billion, holding about 848,000 BTC. The numbers are impressive, but the real highlight of this report is not the paper profits, but capital allocation: the company recently repurchased about $176 million in STRC preferred shares, sending a clear signal — this largest treasury company is shifting from “financing to buy coins” to “preserving credit and stabilizing capital structure.” In a high interest rate environment, this defensive move is not surprising.
The market is already anticipating this today: MSTR up 1.85%, xMSTR up 1.89%. But the MSCI new regulation risk still hangs overhead; if removed, it could trigger passive sell-offs and impact financing ability. Until this uncertainty is resolved, MSTR’s valuation premium is unlikely to fully open. The earnings call will be key to listen to: will management continue to repair the balance sheet or re-leverage to buy coins?
For the crypto market, Strategy’s stance is a critical variable directly affecting BTC’s structural buying. In trading, don’t just focus on positive numbers; time-sensitive risks remain, so orders must have stop-losses set in advance. #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 The community has been all over Brother Jima's story these past two days. His long position cards are fully revealed: 3,000 BTC longs at an average price of 86,000, 50,000 ETH longs, 500,000 SOL longs, with unrealized losses of tens of millions. The huge hole is out in the open, and the whole network is just waiting for him to be liquidated for entertainment.
Let's cool things down first: it's very hard for him to get liquidated. Three full positions, BTC liquidation price at 52,000, ETH at 1,800, SOL at 75, with billions in margin padding. Even if prices drop further, only net worth is hurt, the foundation remains intact.
Moreover, he is the one collecting money: a huge spot base, although the contracts are at a loss, he earns daily from short funding fees and loan interest, just the interest income alone has brought in tens of millions, bleeding less each day during sideways movement. The one in a hurry is definitely not the rent collector.
The real risk is not in leverage, but in the data. Non-farm payrolls and CPI are coming soon; if the data is too hot, rate cut expectations cool down, and longs face liquidity drain; if the data is soft, then it's the shorts' time to celebrate. Betting on him cutting losses is betting on which side the data supports.
Another detail: his longs are concentrated only in BTC, ETH, and SOL, avoiding the hot MEME. MEME has an independent market with very poor liquidity; he didn't join the hype, which shows clarity.
My view: don't expect him to break first; bullish requires capital cooperation. I only watch two things: daily volume holding above the upper range, and obvious volume increase on the right side. Until both happen, he's still collecting, and I absolutely won't take over his position. TRUMP is now $1.73.
From the all-time high of 73.43, it has dropped 97.65%.
📉 But the drop isn't the main point
On January 19, 2025, the intraday high was 73.43.
Today it's 1.73.
In twenty-one months, it lost 97% of its value.
In the last 30 days, it has fallen another 14.1%.
🧮 What really matters is the supply
Circulating supply is 282 million.
Total supply is 1 billion.
About 718 million are still unreleased, accounting for 70%.
Market cap is $487 million.
Fully diluted market cap is $1.73 billion, 3.5 times the market cap.
This difference is the potential source of supply.
📊 Trading volume is shrinking
Latest single-day volume is $6.47 million.
The 30-day daily average is $12.44 million.
It has already been halved.
The amount of money involved has clearly decreased.
But the 24-hour price is still rising, and the last 90 days are also positive.
🤔 What determines its price
No cash flow, no dividends.
Unlike stocks, you can't use earnings to value it.
Price is determined solely by the sentiment of buyers and sellers.
This structure rises fast and falls fast.
$TRUMP #Microsoft Azure grows 43%, can AI commercialization accelerate? 2:00 AM is just the beginning, 2:30 AM is when the $BTC candlestick appears. Decision at 2:00, market action at 2:30. The probability of a rate hike is about 7%, with almost no suspense about holding steady. The real pricing is in Powell's words: he needs to explain "why pause now" while keeping the option of "possible hike in December." The market pricing for a December hike has exceeded 70%. If the press conference treats the "pause" as just a comma, risk assets will be under pressure; if the subsequent path is deliberately downplayed, that would be a marginal turning point. Also consider dissenting votes: 2–3 hawkish dissents mean the pause is not solid; zero dissents means clean. Funds and chips: spot is buying, retail is holding. ETF single-day inflow is 110 million, but cumulative outflow in October is still 202 million, short-term recovery does not equal trend reversal. More uncomfortable is the contract side: long-short ratio is 2.39, at the 98th percentile, large accounts are reducing positions, retail is levering up to hold. Spot holders are transferring coins out of exchanges, Binance perpetual shorts slightly dominate—both sides are betting in completely different ways before the event. Plan: Do not bet on direction before the event. After 2:30, focus only on two things: whether price and long-short ratio rise synchronously. Synchronous surge is an unreliable rebound, do not chase; if hawkish wording pushes BTC price back to 79100–79200, and spot CVD recovers while long-short ratio declines, then consider buying. Set stop loss well, hold the boundary. #OctoberFOMCRateDecisionAmong this disclosed set of positions, the BTC short position is valued at 22,007,600 U, while the ETH and SOL long positions are only 21.48 U and 19.46 U respectively. Although all three coins have positions, from the scale perspective, the risk remains concentrated on the BTC short side. All three trades are marked as 3X full positions, and the specific differences are worth analyzing separately. BTC short: position -270.59 BTC, opening price 79,260.0 U, unrealized P&L -560,700 U, funding income +246,100 U; listed margin 7,335,900 U, liquidation price 297,122.05 U. The funding income provides some buffer but does not cover the floating loss, nor should it be confused with realized trading profits from unrealized P&L. ETH long: position 0.01 ETH, opening price 2,442.7 U, position value 21.48 U; unrealized P&L -0.75 U, funding fee -0.39 U, listed margin 7.16 U. Compared to the main BTC position, this long is insufficient to form a meaningful hedge. SOL long: position 0.19 SOL, opening price 100.75 U, position value 19.46 U; unrealized P&L +0.32 U, funding fee -0.23 U, listed margin 6.49 U. Even if the direction is temporarily profitable, its impact on the portfolio is very limited. 💡 My view. What this portfolio deserves more attention is the concentration of risk rather than the number of coins held. The small ETH and SOL long positions can be understood as trial trades, but based on position size alone, the trading cannot be determined.At 4 a.m., Google dropped more than 10% after hours.
What killed it wasn't revenue, but cash flow.
📉 The earnings report isn't that bad
Revenue was $111.2 billion, expected $111.3 billion.
Off by $100 million, basically flat.
Google Cloud revenue was $30.7 billion, profit $11.1 billion, both exceeding expectations.
The ugly part was earnings per share: $2.12, expected $2.99.
💸 The real killer is here
Free cash flow has been negative for two consecutive quarters.
This quarter it was -$9.1 billion.
That equals operating income minus investment spending.
Capital expenditures hit a record, all poured into AI infrastructure.
The market wants to know: when will it pay off?
⚠️ One number is easy to misread
Net profit was hit by an $8.7 billion loss from equity investments.
Last year at the same time it was a gain; Q2 also included SpaceX and Anthropic.
So a big part of the earnings per share is accounting noise.
But cash flow is not noise; -$9.1 billion is real money spent.
🪙 Crypto didn't follow
After Google tanked, BTC fell from 81,585 to 80,986.
Now back to 81,361, down 0.3%.
Fear & Greed Index at 51, neutral.
Not following overnight doesn't mean decoupling
$GOOGL PEPE rose 10% yesterday. At first, I thought it was due to news, but after going through today's headlines, none could explain it.
I scanned 20 mainstream coins; 18 of them fluctuated within plus or minus two points yesterday. BTC closed at 80520, basically unchanged.
Only it was moving.
The trading volume exceeded 300 million, compared to just over 100 million the day before. Open interest jumped from 32.69 million contracts to 43.48 million contracts, an increase of more than one-third in a single day.
I stared at these three numbers for a long time but still couldn't find the reason.
Looking back at the people: on October 26, 76% were long; on the 27th, it dropped to 63%; only on the 28th did it rise back to 66%.
First, shake out a batch, then pull up.
The fees also match: in the last ten settlements, the average was less than half a basis point, and twice it was negative. The bulls are not paying a premium.
This wave didn't rely on leverage. Someone is really buying with real money, squeezing the shorts for a while.
But I’m not chasing.
The one-third added in a day all cost around 0.0000048. Those who entered on the same day will probably exit the same day.
Two invalidations: if it falls back to 0.00000440, the starting point of this wave, then it’s just turnover, and I was wrong; if it stands above 0.00000523, today's high, and open interest doesn’t shrink, then I was wrong, new money is really coming in.
Which do you bet on: shakeout then rally, or the last batch catching the bag?
$PEPE $BTC $DOGE
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heardGood Thursday morning, everyone!
I just finished reviewing the latest ETF flow column. The most striking thing isn't the inflow or outflow, but the halt. On the trading day when the decision was made, BTC spot ETFs only had a net inflow of 16.08 coins, about $1.3 million, and the momentum of the recent rebound suddenly disappeared.
Looking at the past five days: first, 7,562 coins left, creating a big hole; then 1,376 and 2,196 coins came back two days in a row, almost catching up; the latest column shrank to 16.08 coins. The cumulative net inflow still stands on a base of 723,700 coins and a total net asset value of 107.359 billion, so this isn't a retreat, it's just that buying has stopped.
ETH shows a different kind of halt: two consecutive days of outflow, 25,909 and 38,048 coins, with the latest column showing a small inflow of 1,958 coins, about $4.6 million, which is just a stop-loss rather than a recovery compared to the previous day's outflow; the cumulative net inflow base of 12.534 billion compared to BTC's 57.926 billion shows the institutional channel has narrowed significantly.
SOL is the most straightforward: spot ETFs have either outflows or zero for five consecutive days, with the latest outflow of 56,274 coins, a cumulative net outflow of 771,300 coins, and among the three major mainstreams, only its channel is still leaking. ZEC doesn't even have a position; without this channel, its heat can only be found in contracts and spot markets, so its wild nature is not surprising.
My view: this line doesn't give direction, it gives rhythm. Big money replenishes before the decision, stops after it lands, and waits to act again after tonight's GDP and PCE data. The channel isn't closed, the money hasn't fled, hands are just paused; I pause along with them, not rushing ahead.Trump personally clarified: The letter Vice President Pence wrote to Iranian officials was only about providing medical supplies and had nothing to do with restarting peace talks.
The weight of this statement is not in the letter itself, but in how it resets expectations to square one. A few days ago, this letter was taken as the first signal of a thaw between the US and Iran, causing safe-haven assets to come under pressure and risk assets to rebound. Now the White House has denied it themselves, effectively telling everyone: it's too early for easing, don't jump the gun.
The geopolitical impact on the crypto market is never direct; it follows two channels. The first is risk-off sentiment: as conflict expectations rise, funds flow into the dollar, gold, and US bonds, draining volatile assets like Bitcoin first. The second is energy and inflation: any stir in the Middle East moves oil prices first, inflation expectations follow, and ultimately affect interest rate paths. This time, neither channel was fully ignited or extinguished, representing a typical unresolved situation.
Bitcoin's situation is clear: it is consolidating above $80,000, lacking incremental funds above, with geopolitical risks supporting below. In this structure, chasing rallies or panicking on dips is most taboo; the most comfortable approach is to react at the range edges. The $BTC daily chart remains within the consolidation range, with no breakout of the trend.
Ethereum is somewhat weaker; ETH is more sensitive to risk appetite, and usually pulls back deeper than Bitcoin when sentiment shifts. For short-term trading, keep enough margin and avoid maxing out leverage during volatile news windows.
The two key things to watch are: whether there is substantive contact between the US and Iran, and where funds flow during this week's US trading session. The former determines sentiment, the latter determines price.A veteran holder's rambling: This year BTC has been as "useless" as gold, and I actually sleep better because of it
Looking at the data, BTC dropped 7.3% within 2026, gold dropped 7.5%, almost moving in tandem. Those who once called it "digital gold" got slapped in the face, but for someone like me who has been through two cycles, it actually feels quite normal — it was never a safe-haven asset, but a liquidity asset. When liquidity tightens, it suffers alongside tech stocks, no surprise.
My holding cost isn't high, accumulated around the 40,000 mark, so the drop from 80,000 doesn't make me panic. What really makes me cautious are three things combined: the Fed shifting to "no guidance" with a 90% chance of a rate hike in December, the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.32%, and ETFs still seeing net outflows this month. As long as these three persist, I won't add leverage or increase positions, at most I'll use grid trading to capture some volatility.
Some friends ask if I regret not exiting during the altcoin season. Honestly, a bit. But what I fear more is making reckless moves. The ones who survive in crypto aren't those who guess best, but those who last the longest. Let's survive through December first, then we'll talk about next year. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Sentiment index at -11, but liquidation data is cooling down, I'm waiting for a divergence
Putting these two data points together is quite interesting. The Bitcoin unified sentiment index has dropped to -11, back into negative territory, indicating that the greedy crowd has basically withdrawn. On the other hand, Deribit's DVOL volatility index reported 37.7 on October 28, down from 38.5 the day before, slowly trending downward. The sentiment is bad, but volatility hasn't exploded; I've seen this combination before — it's often the calm before the storm.
One more thing: CryptoQuant's bull market score was 90 three months ago, now it's 60; the fear and greed composite reading hovers around 45. None of these indicate extreme panic, more like a "everyone's just tired" kind of slow decline.
My own strategy is: I don't bottom-fish, but I start placing buy orders around 77,500 (which is the on-chain average level). I don't mind if they don't fill; if they do, I take a bit, if not, I just ignore it. The signal that really excites me is: sentiment still negative, price no longer making new lows, and ETFs suddenly turning positive for three consecutive days — when all three align, that's when I move cash in. For now, I'm just watching the show.The Bank of Japan is also meeting tomorrow, don't think it has nothing to do with the crypto world
Tomorrow (October 30), the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, and the market overwhelmingly expects the rate to remain unchanged at 1.25%. It was just raised in September to a 31-year high. The focus this time is not on the rate but on the wording: will they officially acknowledge inflation reaching 2%, and will they leave the door open for another rate hike in December?
Why am I watching this? Because I've suffered losses. When the yen carry trade unwinds, the first wave of selling hits "liquidity bubble assets" like Bitcoin. Goldman Sachs even predicts they will raise the core CPI forecast for fiscal 2027 to 2.7%, which feels like "no change verbally, but intending to hike."
Here's how I hedge: I convert 20% of my position into stablecoins and keep the rest in BTC without using contracts. If Ueda Kazuo turns hawkish tomorrow and the yen spikes, I have a buffer and won't be woken up at midnight to add margin. Don't find it troublesome; that cross-market spike is invisible most of the time but hurts when it happens. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 "October must rise" really backfired this time, I admit
Here's a bit of an embarrassing confession: Around this time last year, I was still hyping "Uptober," but in October 2025, it dropped 3.8%. Now, as of the 25th of October 2026, it has dropped another 4.2%, marking the second consecutive year closing in the red. The five-year average gain of 18.1% seems to be temporarily broken.
My own portfolio is down about six percent this month—not much, but quite frustrating. Looking back, the problem lies here: Coinbase premium has been negative for 33 consecutive days, currently at -0.15%, indicating weak buying pressure in the US; CryptoQuant's bull market score has also fallen from 90 to 60. In other words, although the price is still around eighty thousand, the market's "momentum" has long dissipated.
However, I have a contrarian thought: when everyone stops talking about Uptober, that's when I pay close attention. Kalshi's Bitcoin October forecast price is still 87,000, with a year-end target of 83,554—both numbers compared to my cost basis show there’s room above and the downside isn’t too far. My conclusion is: don’t fight the season, fight the capital and sentiment. If October doesn’t work out, accept it; then watch the data and restart in November. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BTC Tonight at 20:30, the PCE knife is just about to fall
The Fed's event was yesterday's drama; tonight's is the main event. At 20:30 Beijing time on October 29, the US Q3 GDP preliminary data and September PCE will hit together. The market expects an annualized GDP of 3.2%, core PCE year-on-year at 3.1%, and month-on-month at 0.3%. The previous value was 3.4%, and both September CPI and PPI exceeded expectations again, with oil prices still creeping into service prices.
To be honest: the "no change" at midnight has already been priced in; the real game-changer is tonight's inflation exceeding expectations. Once core PCE hits above 3.2%, the 90% probability of a rate hike in December will likely rise further. That will push US Treasury yields and the dollar up together, and high-beta assets like Bitcoin will be the first to take a hit.
My plan is written down: if higher than expected, do not add positions, raise stop-loss one level; if it meets or is below expectations, do not chase, wait to see if ETFs have net inflows the next day. Trading is about plans being more valuable than predictions. Set your reminders tonight, don’t sleep too deeply. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BTC Seller stopped buying. This is the heaviest signal I've seen this week
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) latest disclosure: From October 19 to 25, they neither bought nor sold a single BTC, holding steady at 848,517 BTC, with a total cost of about $64.02 billion and an average price of $75,446. Where did the money go? $205 million was used to repurchase their own STRC preferred shares.
My first reaction was: even the most aggressive bulls are choosing to save money and "pay down debt."
Think about it, this company holds about 4% of the circulating supply. During the first half of the year when Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 to 58,000, they passively reduced their position four times in history. Now they neither sell nor buy, effectively telling you with real money — "I don't think it's worth adding yet."
I wasn't scared into selling at a loss; instead, I felt reassured: the narrative of "institutions endlessly buying" in the market can finally take a break. BTC accounts for 60% of my own portfolio, with the rest held in cash. When Seller doesn't move, I don't move either, no shame in that. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BTC ｜ETF Continuous Inflow? Don't Rush, I'll Break Down the Data for You
First, the good news: On October 27 (Eastern US time), the spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $176 million, with IBIT alone taking in $151 million, FBTC over $20 million, and the total net asset value returning to $103.9 billion. From October 19 to 21, there was also a cumulative inflow of about $1.075 billion.
But don't get too excited yet. Looking at the weekly data: as of the week ending October 24, there was a net inflow of $301 million, ending two weeks of outflows; however, on the 23rd alone, $636 million was withdrawn, so the entire month still shows a net outflow in the range of $200 to $300 million. What's more subtle is that the $176 million on the 27th was almost entirely funneled into IBIT, with other funds barely seeing any inflow.
Having tracked positions for so long, what I fear most is this kind of "single-point inflow." It's not a group of institutions bottom-fishing, but more like a single large player making a one-time allocation. For a real reversal, you'd want to see products other than GBTC also participating, with positive inflows for more than three consecutive days. So my approach is: treat the ETF column as an observation indicator, not a buy or sell signal. I applaud the inflow, but it’s not yet a reason for me to increase my position. The Fed's "holding steady" this time, no matter how I interpret it, I don't see it as good news
I stayed up until 3 a.m. after the 2 a.m. show. FOMC voted 10 to 2 to maintain 3.75%—4.00%, as expected. But the details matter more than the result: the two dissenters, Cook and Harker, both want a 25 basis point hike.
The most painful part was Wash's comment: he doesn't believe in or provide forward guidance. To translate—during Powell's era, you could still infer "what might happen next" from his words, but now it's gone, and every meeting requires repricing. Traders now price in a 90% chance of a rate hike in December; the September hike would be the first in over three years.
I have 30% of my position, and after watching the press conference, I actually felt relieved. Why? Because "pause" does not mean "pivot," and I was misled by this misconception once earlier this year. High oil prices have pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.32%, the highest since 2002. In this interest rate environment, it's very hard for Bitcoin to dance alone. My approach is: no leverage, no chasing rebounds, wait for the December decision to settle before considering adding to my position. $BTC After the decision, BTC only surged to 81700 before pulling back, with funds still cautious
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 10:2, with BTC briefly touching about 81700 before retreating to around 81000. The volatility was smaller than many expected, indicating that the "hold steady" stance has been fully priced in.
What hasn't been fully priced in yet is the hint about the December path after the meeting. Waller emphasized that financial conditions have tightened but are not yet stressful, while also stating readiness to act based on the situation. If the subsequent tone remains hawkish, expectations for high rates to persist longer will weigh on risk assets.
One pitfall is treating the "expected pause" as if all bad news is out, leading to chasing gains after the announcement. Such already priced-in events often see a reverse move after the news hits, making leveraged positions the easiest to be liquidated.
Let's first see if funds continue to stay in AI and chips or start spreading into crypto. The 80,000 level has not yet given either bulls or bears decisive control.
Are your current positions more spot long or futures long? If the post-meeting stance remains hawkish, do you plan to reduce your position or hold on? Share your reasoning.
$BTC #FederalReserve #FOMC #Macroeconomics #OKXPlanetBitcoin is currently trading around $80,500, basically flat over the past 24 hours, having reclaimed the $80,000 level. BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $176 million in a single day, but this inflow is insufficient to confirm a reversal. Overhead resistance remains in the cost zone: buyers' costs over the past two years have concentrated at $87,000 and above, and this unlocking zone has twice suppressed rebounds this year; ETF holders' average cost is about $81,500, with the price consistently closing below it, suggesting institutional chips may shift from support to burden. Short-term resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA around $81,800, with support below at $78,000.
Ethereum is weaker, currently priced around $2,330–$2,340, having broken below the daily ascending channel's lower boundary. Around $2,310 is the on-chain realized price converging with the 200-day EMA, barely holding; below that, $2,250 is the short-term critical line—if broken, $2,160 and even $2,000 come into view. ETH ETF has seen a cumulative outflow of about $1.32 billion in October, roughly six times the outflow scale of BTC ETF, indicating institutions are systematically reducing ETH exposure rather than short-term hedging.
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network was about $514 million, with long positions accounting for $357 million; among these, ETH long liquidations were $112 million, higher than BTC long liquidations of $72.77 million, showing leveraged longs feel the pain more concentratedly on ETH. $BTC $ETH $ETH
The probability of a rate hike in December surged to 78.4% in one day, and my first reaction was to wonder if this data was a typo. After a long period of rate cuts, the market is now seriously pricing in a rate hike.
After hours, the US stock market is still restless; Alphabet's profits disappointed, dropping 8.5% after hours, while Microsoft's Azure exceeded expectations. AI capital expenditure remains around $200 billion, the money hasn't withdrawn, but sentiment is wavering.
ETH is currently at 2358, fluctuating within a narrow range between 2323 and 2392 over the past 24 hours. Despite the soaring rate hike probability, it stubbornly hasn't dropped. I think it's not strength, but rather it hasn't reacted yet.
I haven't touched ETH long positions this month for this reason. There's a sword hanging overhead, and no incremental funds at the bottom. I haven't made money on ETH this month, so I decided to stay calm and wait for it to choose its own direction.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Price rising, volume falling: the "divergence" signal of the three coins
It went up, but the rise feels shaky.
$ETH liquidation data best illustrates the issue: 30.58 million short positions were liquidated, while long positions were only 6.84 million, the bears took a heavy hit. 8-hour inflow was 195 million, 12-hour cumulative inflow was 309 million, but the first two hours still saw a net outflow of 95.99 million — funds are hesitating. The sharp five-minute surge from 2338.91 to 2364.03 at dawn looks more like a forced buy triggered by short stop-losses rather than active buying.
$SOL's volume contraction is the most striking. 30-hour turnover shrank by 23.71%, 24-hour by 12.34%, the deepest among the three coins by both measures. 4-hour inflow was 5.93 million, 8-hour inflow 4.7 million, seeming lively, but the net outflow for the whole day was 39.16 million, and 242 million left over the week. The price is stuck in a narrow range between 100.86 and 101.84, unable to rise or fall, a typical "volume-price divergence" — no one wants to take over at this level.
$BTC is even more conflicted. 12-hour inflow was 119 million, 24-hour reversed to an outflow of 181 million, with a net weekly outflow of 2.216 billion. However, open interest increased by 31.05% to 56.74 billion, leverage is accumulating but no direction chosen. Turnover shrank 22.85% in one day, the sharpest decline. The lowest at dawn was 80616.60
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