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Don't rush to read this message as "Avalanche is unsafe." Let me first pour some cold water: what needs to be re-examined this time is the share calculation and redemption logic of the vault, not to directly condemn the entire chain. Blockaid reported that the Tranche Vault related to Valinor Digital on Avalanche was attacked. The attacker used flash loans to mint an inflated number of layered shares, then redeemed the remaining $USDC in the vault; as of the time of posting, about two transactions have transferred approximately $1.01 million.
My bearish view is on the risk pricing of this type of vault, for two reasons. First, from the disclosed attack path, the problem lies in whether the shares can be abnormally amplified; the flash loan is just a tool. If you only focus on the flash loan, you may overlook the constraints between assets and shares. Second, the material does not mention any issues with Avalanche's underlying consensus. Extrapolating a single vault incident to a full-chain crisis is a stretch; however, for products relying on similar layered designs, I would be more cautious rather than assume they have the same vulnerabilities.
Of course, those worried about risk contagion might also be right. If subsequent disclosures show the problem involves components reused by multiple vaults, I will broaden the scope of caution; if evidence points to isolated implementation errors, I will narrow my judgment. What I will focus on next is the boundary of the vulnerability, not substituting chain names for analysis.$BTC is currently priced at 81,003.1 USDT, up 0.58% intraday, recovering steadily from the low of 79,477. The 1-hour MACD red bars are expanding, price has broken through the upper Bollinger Band, but RSI6 is already at 72.08, entering overbought territory. The underlying tone of this rebound is a "position front-running" ahead of the FOMC, rather than a macro shift. Macro suppression remains the core contradiction. The 10-year US Treasury yield is stuck stubbornly near 5.00%, with real yields approaching the highest since 2008, keeping the opportunity cost of risk-free assets high. CME data shows about a 91% probability of no change this week, but the market's real concern is that the December rate hike expectation has surged to nearly 80%. The "hawkish tail risk" of the interest rate path is not fully priced in, and any hawkish remarks from Powell could quickly erode this rebound. The "island effect" in funding is weakening the foundation of the rebound. On Monday, BTC spot ETF net inflows were $110.3 million, but 100% came from BlackRock's IBIT alone, with FBTC, GBTC, and others precisely zero. This is not a healthy capital inflow but a collapse of institutional exposure into a single channel—October still saw a net outflow of over $300 million for the whole month, and the ETF "breadth" is narrowing. Technically, the upper resistance at $81,500 is the true macro hard ceiling. Glassnode data shows that the weighted average cost basis of spot ETF investors across the US is right around $81,500, and every rebound to this level encounters selling to break even. The current price is only about $500 away from this level 💻 For this piece of information, I want to break it down by code review. The input is: According to Bloomberg, after Bitcoin's summer rebound, it fell back to around $80,000, with attempts to reach $100,000 facing continuous selling pressure. Buyers over the past two years have costs concentrated at $87,000 and above; the selling pressure near this level has suppressed rebounds twice this year, each followed by at least a 25% pullback.
My judgment: This news is explanatory, but using it as a predictor overestimates its value. For someone like me who watches the market, the most useful need is to identify resistance, not to preset parameters for the next pullback in advance.
Logically, concentrated cost means many holders might sell when close to breakeven, which does explain why rebounds are difficult. But a potential bug is: cost price does not equal sell orders, and holders won’t uniformly execute "sell as soon as breakeven." If all potential selling pressure is counted as definite supply, resistance might be exaggerated—this is my speculation.
Another bug is the sample size is only twice this year. The at least 25% pullback is a historical result and cannot be directly copied to the next cycle. Correlation can trigger risk warnings but is insufficient to prove the same drop will recur.
If it were me, I would revise the conclusion to a condition to be verified: when the price approaches the concentrated cost zone again, observe whether the sell orders can be continuously absorbed, rather than only focusing on round number levels. Please help me review: to verify this logic, would you prioritize looking at volume expansion or the price’s ability to hold after a rally? What key variable did I miss? $BTC $ETH ETF only buys Bitcoin, not Ethereum; what is the options market guarding against?
Yesterday's data on US stock spot ETFs was very interesting. Breaking it down reveals the attitude of the funds:
BTC ETF net inflow was $110.3 million, but note, this entire $110 million came from BlackRock's IBIT, with zero inflow or outflow from others. The full month of October still saw a net outflow of about $202 million. ETH ETF net outflow was $88.6 million, with BlackRock's ETHA single-day outflow of $104.7 million, and only Fidelity's FETH had a slight inflow of $16.1 million.
The conclusion is clear: institutions only recognize BTC at the 800,000 level, and are continuously withdrawing from ETH.
Looking at options further clarifies the issue: the most active BTC contract is the October 28 expiration put option with a strike price of 77,000, followed by the 84,000 call option; among the six most active ETH contracts, four are puts, led by the October 29 expiration put with a strike price of 2,000.
The one-month implied volatility skew dropped from 14.5% to 12.5%, puts are still more expensive than calls, but the premium is narrowing.
My understanding: big money is buying insurance, not betting on a full downturn. At the 800,000 level, institutions neither want to liquidate nor do they want surprises from the FOMC and midterm elections, so they hedge with options—this is precisely typical midterm bottom behavior, not panic.
Glassnode also has data: the profit ratio of short-term holders dropped from nearly 100% at the end of September to 70%, indicating profit-taking pressure has indeed cooled.
Don't go all in before the rate decision. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is coming tomorrow! 👀
Interestingly, during the last FOMC rate decision, $BTC happened to bottom out on the same day and then rebounded 16% over the following week.
History doesn't simply repeat itself, but it often leaves clues worth studying for the market.
Will a similar trend appear again this time? Focus on the rate decision, Powell's speech, and the market's expectations for the future rate cut path. For me, convenient trading does not equal favorable odds. The Hong Kong Investment Committee issued a reminder that buying and selling tokenized funds in the secondary market involves four types of risks: price spread/trading, liquidity, price segmentation, and reliance on market makers. It is also necessary to clarify the underlying fund and whether the settlement is on-chain or off-chain.
I prefer to see this message as cooling down the "tokenization premium" rather than denying the concept of funds going on-chain. According to my speculation, if the pricing depends on a few market makers, then the exit cost might offset the benefits brought by convenience; if prices are segmented across different trading channels, then seeing a low price does not necessarily mean there is a bargain to be had.
From my perspective, only when the underlying fund is understandable, the exit costs are acceptable, and the settlement responsibilities are clearly defined, does the convenience factor deserve to be included in the expected value; without these, no matter how novel the story is, it is not worthwhile. This reminder makes me more inclined to believe that future discussions will shift from the convenience of going on-chain to the exit conditions. I will first look at whether these conditions are clearly explained and will not substitute technical novelty for risk assessment.Let's talk separately about ETH's relative strength
ETH is currently around 2353, with gains on October 27 stronger than BTC, showing more resilience on the market.
But on the other hand, ETH spot ETFs are still seeing outflows, indicating a divergence between capital flow and price performance: strong gains do not mean buying is continuously increasing.
My view is to first see if this relative strength can hold up against the backdrop of ETF outflows, then determine whether it's a rotation catch-up or sustained strength, without rushing to treat it as a confirmed reversal.
Discussion: Do you think ETH's relative strength can continue, or is it just a short-term outperformance?
Personal opinion, not investment advice
#ETF #以太坊 $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 📊 $ETH funding divergence intensifies: treasury buying, ETF selling
BitMine (BMNR) latest disclosure shows holding 6,051,933 ETH as of October 25, 14:00 EST, about 4.95% of the total network. Added another 10,452 last week, with a staking scale of about 5.22 million ETH, annualized staking yield about $318 million according to company standards. Only about 58,000 ETH short of its 5% target, but buying pace has slowed; whether it can continue to increase holdings is key 👀.
On the other hand, $ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $88.6 million yesterday, with a cumulative outflow of about $1.31 billion in the past 30 days. Listed companies are buying weekly, but spot funds are reducing positions, showing a clear conflict in capital direction. Strategy almost stopped buying BTC this week, BitMine and Strive are still expanding their balance sheets, as if capital is selecting targets to continue expanding.
Current price about 2,314, 24-hour high 2,344, low 2,296. Short-term support at 2,295-2,305, reduce positions if it breaks below 2,295; resistance at 2,340-2,365, don't chase if it can't break through. Stop loss below 2,285, target first at 2,380. Keep position light, do not leverage before FOMC decision ⚠️. Before ETF funds return, relying solely on treasury buying to support price, I still don't believe it 💡. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Sir A's live trading record｜Day 298 of dollar-cost averaging SOL, a pullback of 27,000 from the peak, but I choose to keep accumulating coins 🚀
📅 Check-in day: Day 298
💰 Current holdings: 145.01 SOL
📈 Current profit and loss: +16.27% (unrealized profit about 13,663 CNY)
🏷️ Current price: ~101.94 USDT
Today's total account assets are 98,000, a pullback of 27,000 from the previous high of 125,000. Seeing the account shrink, it's honestly painful. 🫠
But my strategy has always been simple:
1️⃣ Enable automatic buying, regardless of rise or fall, acquire coins as planned.
2️⃣ Put them in Simple Earn to earn interest, accumulating while making money.
3️⃣ Uninstall the app, don't watch the market, live well.
As long as the chips held keep increasing, short-term fluctuations are just a numbers game. In this market, lasting longer is more important than making quick profits! Waiting quietly for the next main upward wave! 🏔️
Anyone else dollar-cost averaging SOL? Raise your hand in the comments! 🙋♂️
SOL dollar-cost averaging #OKXPlanet #Solana #LiveTradingRecord #FinanceDaily #CoinAccumulator #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 $BTC $ETH In the futures market, no matter how lively the trading on an exchange is, I always look at how much industrial hedging and how much short-term capital there is. Speculation provides liquidity and is not inherently wrong, but if growth relies entirely on sentiment, when the market cools down, the underlying business quality will be revealed. My view on this Solana news follows the same habit.
According to Bloomberg, Solana is seeking to shift from relying on Meme coins and speculative trading to financial applications such as stablecoins and tokenized assets, aiming for adoption by Wall Street; JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered, as well as Visa and Fiserv have already started related operations on the network. The material does not provide business scale, so I will not directly equate these names with growth.
My judgment is that this looks more like a catch-up in business resilience against economic cycles, rather than a direct positive factor that can be applied to the coin price. If payment and asset circulation can generate sustained demand, then the network has a chance to reduce its dependence on speculative enthusiasm; but there is still a gap between institutions starting business and the business having already formed scale, with actual usage in between.
The crypto market is different from traditional futures; network usage does not necessarily mean value will be transmitted to tokens in the same proportion. For ordinary holders, this distinction is more important than the list of institutions. What I want to see next is whether these applications can maintain stable demand, first separating the accounting of "someone coming" and "someone staying."According to this position update, Brother Maji's perpetual contract portfolio remains BTC short, ETH long, and HYPE short. The most noteworthy aspect is not the directional combination, but the profit and loss distribution: BTC short position is profitable, ETH long and HYPE short positions are under pressure, and the funding fees have not fully offset the unrealized losses. 📊 Breaking down the three positions: BTC short: 40X full position, holding -243.96 BTC, position value 19,641,400 U; opening price 84,070.0 U, unrealized profit +868,700 U, funding fee income +129,300 U; margin 491,000 U, listed liquidation price 100,208.7. ETH long: 25X full position, holding 7,223.81 ETH, position value 16,944,200 U; opening price 2,500.18 U, unrealized P&L -1,116,700 U, funding fee expense -63,500 U; margin 677,800 U, listed liquidation price 1,658.24. HYPE short: 5X full position, holding -268,300 HYPE, position value 21,550,900 U; opening price 66.2399 U, unrealized P&L -3,778,700 U, funding fee income +1,102,600 U; margin 4,310,200 U, listed liquidation price 96.81. 💡 My view. This portfolio shows that the simultaneous presence of long and short positions does not mean the risk is already offset. The unrealized loss on the ETH long exceeds the unrealized profit on the BTC short, and HYPE is the largest source of unrealized loss among the three positions. The relative positions of different coinsLast night, the global markets were celebrating wildly, with the Nasdaq leading the gains at 1.18%, Tesla soaring 4 points, and tech stocks pushing the broader market upward. The US Consumer Confidence Index for October also rose from 84.2 to 91.7. Looks lively, right? But after digging into the underlying data, I found this is all a facade. Consumer confidence has indeed improved, but the World Federation of Large Enterprises' survey bluntly states that while people verbally express confidence, they actually plan to drastically cut spending on services and big durable goods over the next six months. What does this mean? It means emotional recovery is masking a real contraction in demand. Looking at the corporate side, although core capital goods orders in September rose 0.5% month-over-month and shipments increased 1.2%, companies' actual profitability is being tested in this high-interest environment. So don’t be fooled by the rising US stock market into thinking the bull market is back; there are hidden reefs beneath the surface. Turning back to our market, BTC is currently quoted at 80,683, up slightly by 0.5%, but this is hardly something to celebrate. According to Glassnode data, the comprehensive holding cost tracked for corporate treasuries is around $80,200. The current price is tightly defending the institutional floor. On the upside, there is a clear potential short liquidation zone between $81,200 and $81,700, less than 1.5% above the current price; on the downside, $78,700 to $79,300 is a liquidation danger zone for longs. This position is extremely precarious, with both bulls and bears walking a tightrope. If volume-driven selling breaks below 80,000, it will trigger another chain of massive liquidations. On the news front, there isA Brazilian election saw someone earn 1.77 million USD, while others were hit by both stock market circuit breakers and on-chain liquidations.
On October 26, Lula defeated Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.79% of the vote, breaking the historical pattern since Brazil resumed direct presidential elections in 1989, where "the first-round leader never lost in the second round."
Suspicious winners also appeared in prediction markets.
According to monitoring by @poly_beats, two newly registered accounts$BTC #ThisWeekOctoberFOMCInterestRateDecisionAnnouncement
#BTC weak rebound at 80,000 threshold: positions piled up with full leverage, two-way harvesting before FOMC
The 4-hour chart shows BTC falling back from the high of 87,238, dipping to a low of 79,220 before starting a weak recovery, currently reported around 80,950. Technically, MACD and KDJ both show golden crosses, indicating short-term rebound momentum remains, but MA5/MA10/MA20 all show bearish pressure, heavy trapped positions above 81,000, insufficient rebound volume makes effective breakthrough difficult, overall still a consolidation after decline, with box lower support at 79,178.
Capital flow divergence is extremely obvious: spot ETF side sees slight daily BTC inflow, institutions cautiously test buying at 80,000 threshold; ETH only minor inflows, SOL continuous outflows, large funds have not fully entered yet. Contract open interest climbs to 31,000 contracts, price dropped 5,000 points in the past month but open interest rose instead of falling, a typical pattern of increased positions during decline, with both long and short leverage accumulating; recent rebound accompanied by slight open interest decline, only partial short profit-taking exits, overall high leverage status unchanged.
Bearish pressure not yet lifted: on-chain whales turned bearish for the first time in 3 months, leading enterprises’ holders sold BTC for the first time, short-term holders’ exchange inflows have turned loss-dominant. Before FOMC release, volatility under high positions will be significantly amplified, rising triggers short stop-losses causing a surge, falling triggers long liquidations causing a crash, very high probability of two-way shakeout, heavy one-sided bets are easily trapped and harvested at this time.Today, we first look at capital inflows, but it's still too early to judge a reversal. BTC spot and futures are synchronously flowing in short-term, ETH leveraged funds are replenishing more noticeably, while SOL spot is being supported but futures are still retreating. BTC spot net inflow over 4 hours is $111 million, futures net inflow is $36.18 million. Extending to 24 hours, spot net inflow is $179 million, but futures net outflow is $92.74 million. The 30-day futures net outflow has expanded to $7.83 billion, indicating short-term buying has returned, but mid-term deleveraging is not over yet. ETH spot net inflow over 4 hours is $51.64 million, futures net inflow is $221 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $87.02 million, futures net inflow is $185 million. However, 30-day spot net outflow is $3.77 billion, futures net outflow is $8.29 billion. Short-term replenishment is stronger than BTC, but mid-term capital structure remains weak. SOL spot net inflow over 4 hours is $8.66 million, futures net inflow is $4.53 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $23.7 million, but futures net outflow is $58.94 million. The 30-day futures cumulative net outflow is $2.17 billion, indicating spot is being supported but leveraged funds remain cautious about the rebound. BTC short-term capital is flowing back, ETH futures funds are rushing in, SOL spot support is most obvious. It now looks more like capital replenishment after continuous retreat, not a trend reversal yet. Continue to watch if the rebound can bring sustained increments; otherwise, there is still a risk of pullback after a rally. $BTC $ETH $SOL 🔍 Is the sell-off taking profits or waiting to break even? According to Bloomberg, $BTC has fallen back to around $80,000. Buyers' costs have concentrated at $87,000 and above over the past two years. This area has suppressed rebounds twice this year, each time followed by a pullback of at least 25%.
Don't rush to conclusions; cost does not equal sell orders. This is my speculation: if breaking even is the main reason for exiting, then turnover of positions is more important than the round number level, because the expectations of those taking over may differ. I will watch whether the selling pressure near $87,000 weakens.$ETH's rebound is losing its conviction, and the most honest evidence comes from trading volume. After the MACD golden cross, buyers did not increase their positions as the market expected, especially during the prime time after the open, where the overall market was still rejected by price — this is not a clean attack but more like a tentative pullback. Zooming out, the US semiconductor sector surged today, with funds clearly tilting towards chip stocks, but the crypto market did not stabilize in sync. $ETH is oscillating repeatedly around the dangerous 2300 level, just one step away from 2227. This level is critical because if it breaks and accelerates downward, even the 0.618 retracement level may not hold; if it evolves into a phase decline, the entire upward trend risks ending. In other words, 2227 is not just a number; it is the last line of defense for the current bullish logic. My current judgment leans bearish: buyers did not show volume at the key window, indicating insufficient willingness to chase highs, while external funds are being drawn to semiconductors, leaving $ETH lacking incremental support. But there is an easily overlooked divergence point here — if 2227 can hold, I personally tend to believe there is still room for upward movement after adjustment, and the bulls have not completely surrendered control. The market's current divergence lies precisely in the binary question of "whether it can hold" rather than the direction itself. The real signal to watch is not the height of the price rebound but whether there is volume support near 2227. A rebound on shrinking volume is a bull trap; only a volume-supported stop to the decline signals a reversal starting.$PEPE
After a year, a whale transferred out 1.45 trillion PEPE tokens. This address originally acquired the chips at a very low cost, and after the transfer, it still holds a floating profit of over 5 million.
PEPE surged more than 14% in the past 24 hours, currently trading around 0.00000493, and the Meme sector as a whole also rose nearly 4%, making it quite lively to watch.
One opinion I've heard is that PEPE is back on track. My view is not so optimistic—the old holders are moving out while the hype lasts; this kind of rise feels more like an emotional pulse. Anyway, I have never caught a bargain in the Meme hype, so this time I'll just watch first.
Wallets are more honest than words; no matter how much it rises, I'm just observing.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Macro conditions are not yet favorable for Bitcoin.
Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, but they will have to step in for debt markets eventually.
Be patient!As of the week ending October 18, the daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz was about 14 million barrels, only 82% of the pre-war level.
The daily number of commercial vessels passing through dropped from more than 20 per day before the conflict to at least 10.
Since the beginning of this month, there have been about 30 attacks on ships in and around Hormuz, accounting for 20% of all ships attacked during the entire war.
Freight rates for supertankers heading to Asia are approaching a record high of $37.37 per barrel. War risk insurance premiums have surged from less than 3% of the vessel's value to as high as 10%.
Oil is still flowing. But the cost of that flow has multiplied several times over.
In the past four geopolitical conflicts, BTC has always "fallen first and then risen."
In 2022 Russia-Ukraine, it initially dropped 8%, then rebounded 14% after four days.
In 2023 Israel-Hamas, it fell 6% that week, then surged 40% over the next 30 days.
In 2025 India-Pakistan, it dropped 3% on the day, then recovered the next day.
In February 2026, after the US-Israel bombing of Iran, it plunged 6%, then rebounded 17%.
The script was exactly the same four times. But the four rebounds share one common premise: energy supply was never truly cut off.
Russian oil was still being sold, the Pakistan conflict did not affect oil routes, and the February bombing did not block the strait.
This time, the premise has changed.
The Iranian Foreign Minister made it very clear: the management and navigation of Hormuz "will no longer be the same as before."
In recent weeks, the Revolutionary Guard has taken action against at least seven "violating" oil tankers; between October 21 and 22, seven tankers were attacked or struck mines. On October 27, a tanker with its tracking system turned off struck a mine and caught fire in the eastern strait. The Iranian Navy explicitly stated: vessels passing without coordination make Hormuz "an unsafe state."
The US Central Command said "there are no Iranian mines on the main shipping routes." Iran responded the next day with a burning tanker.
Both sides speak their own words. But tanker traffic data does not lie: flow is decreasing, costs are rising.
Brent crude oil is about $113.88 today, WTI near $99.90, briefly dipping below $100 intraday before pulling back.
Oil prices above $100 mean the pressure of inflation penetrating from the energy sector into core inflation is real. The Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts is nailed down by oil prices; the denominator of risk asset valuations is held down by yields.
The 10-year US Treasury yield hovers near 5%, reaching 5.365% on October 7, a 24-year high.
BTC returned to $81,000 today, up 1%. But it still fell 2.8% over the past 7 days, with heavy selling pressure above after failing to break $100,000.
A 1% rise does not mean safety. It only means the market is still waiting for an answer.
$BTC $XAU $BZ $BTC has dropped to around 80,000, so why am I not rushing to buy the dip?
It's not that I don't want to buy at the low point, but I'm afraid of running out of bullets too early. If the market keeps falling afterward, I won't have money to cope.
A big drop doesn't mean the selling pressure has been fully cleared. The market is still waiting for signals from the Federal Reserve. Even if interest rates meet expectations, it doesn't necessarily mean prices will rise. The key is to watch the statements, liquidity, and sustained buying.
I'm waiting for three signals:
1. Whether 80,000 can truly hold, not just a fake recovery followed by another drop
2. Whether the rebound has volume; a rebound without volume doesn't count as a reversal
3. Whether there are buyers stepping in on the pullback; active buying and a pause in selling are two different things
I'm not bearish, nor am I refusing to buy. Once it stabilizes, I'll enter in batches; if it breaks down, I'll cut losses—no stubborn holding on.In the AI industry chain, the traditional mechanical hard drive sector has recently been quite impressive🤨
In the early hours of October 28, Seagate released its latest financial report, showing a 61% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue, a gross margin of 57.3%, and free cash flow hitting a company record.
At the same time, the company expects revenue to continue growing next quarter!
Previously, when people talked about AI storage, the focus was mostly on HBM and manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix.
However, as data center scales expand, long-term storage of massive data also requires large-capacity storage devices with sufficiently low costs.
This happens to be the advantage of traditional mechanical hard drives.
Seagate's HAMR technology is helping it increase single-drive capacity, and combined with growing demand and supply management, profitability has shown significant improvement.
The benefits brought by AI infrastructure expansion are spreading to those traditional hardware segments that were once less noticed.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Breaking news: This morning I was still writing about Bitcoin holding at 81,000, then I casually opened OKX and saw the latest spot price at 80,791, with a 24-hour low of 79,505. Numbers that don’t match after just one night speak louder than any analysis.
This week it has already fallen below 80,000 twice; the last time was on the 23rd at 79,220, the lowest in five weeks. This morning it was just $300 short of that level, then bounced back to around 81,300 before someone started selling again, with the 24-hour high stopping at 81,298.
Beyond the price, a few other numbers are worth noting. Coinbase premium has been negative for over a month, hitting -0.176% this morning, the lowest in five months, with hardly any buying during the US session; Hyperliquid whales have turned net short for the first time since March, and in the previous bottom they were the most accurate at going long; Strategy’s SEC filings this week show they haven’t bought a single coin.
So my stance is: this looks more like a downward continuation than a shakeout before a takeoff. The 80,000 level is notorious for whipsawing; I made a wrong call in a similar area last week, and I admit it rather than stubbornly holding on.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC has been bought up to the bottom? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 10/28｜Willy Woo's Weather Station ran 10,000 simulations. On 10/26, he posted 10,000 BTC simulated paths: median peak in December 2028 at 413,000; 28th-50th percentile reasonable range 241,000-413,000. The model uses a random walk trained on history from the 2018 bottom to the 2022 bottom, with diminishing returns (power-law decay 0.45), adjusted by market cycle phase. He insists "this is a simulation, not my prediction" and also shows: median pullback to 234,000 in April 2030, surge to 1,030,000 in February 2033. On 10/27, BTC was about 80,000, roughly 37% below the October 2025 high of 126,080. I'll keep this simulation for now; the truth will be revealed by the end of 2028 $CL Important things said three times
The US is not short of oil—the US is not short of oil—the US is not short of oil!
Oil = Dollar—Oil = Dollar—Oil = Dollar!
After the midterm elections, I believe oil prices will plummet, because although high oil prices can enhance the international status of the dollar, they also cause everyone to reject using the dollar.
From the perspective of international security, if Ukraine does not receive new support on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, a ceasefire is inevitable. At that time—if the US and Iran do not cease hostilities, the next conflict hotspot will shift to them. The US military is domineering, but they are not stupid; they will not fight a protracted transoceanic war thousands of miles away, as their power would only be weakened. Therefore, peace talks between the US and Iran are imperative.
The end of the midterms is a signal; the political significance represented by the midterms is huge. No one will offend voters at this time. High oil prices have already seriously affected the lives of their own citizens, so lowering oil prices has become a political task.
One last point: The US is not short of oil, so why are oil prices high?
Because the previous high oil prices were used as a tool to harvest the global economy and stabilize domestic prices, but with the midterms approaching and competition intensifying, this tool must be discarded.
Finally, wishing everyone prosperity~If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set a rule: if a listed company continuously fails to withdraw disclosed crypto assets, then increase the risk weight for asset availability 🤖. Datavault AI reported that starting from June 2026, the inability to withdraw $BTC stored in Biconomy caused its stock price to plummet nearly 50%. These BTC came from a deal where Scilex purchased its stock and warrants for $150 million.
I think this is more like a company asset quality alert and shouldn't be directly interpreted as bearish for Bitcoin. If the money can't be withdrawn, it might affect cash flow; these BTC were transferred off-chain and recorded in the wallet, so just looking at the deposit records is insufficient to verify availability. The advantage of this rule is that it captures specific anomalies, but the flaw is: inability to withdraw does not equal a loss, and the stock price drop cannot be directly treated as a loss rate.
As a quant newbie, I also need to add a condition to lift the alert, otherwise it will keep triggering. If you were to write it, would you lift it after a successful test withdrawal, or require that the entire balance can be independently verified?离谱离谱，纳斯达克上市公司提不出自己的比特币，股价1天直接腰斩😂 这家公司叫Datavault AI，股票代码DVLT。2025年9月另一家上市公司认购它的股票，总价1.5亿美元，全用比特币付，按当时价格折算差不多1328枚。币也没走链上，对方在一家小交易所里直接往它账户记了1309枚，其实就是账本上改个数字。 到2026年1月，它又把其中491枚卖回给对方，换回大约4050万美元现金。剩下大约817.6枚，按现在8万出头的币价算差不多6600万美元，一直躺在那个交易所账户里。 今年6月公司想把币提到外面的钱包，申请交上去就没了下文。等了4个月。一枚都没出来。 10月26号公司发公告，说过去4期财报都不能再信了。这批比特币达不到算自家资产的标准，只能改记成对方欠的认购款，光2025年底的总资产就要往下砍大约9220万美元。 下一个交易日股价直接崩，24小时跌了大约49.55%，最低打到0.07美元附近。 一个靠比特币撑门面的公司，账上的币看得见摸不着，最后连财报都跟着作废。币放在别人那里，屏幕上那串数字到底算谁的，真到要提的时候才知道。 新手小白建议多看少操作，买币只买 $BTC📌Early Wednesday market session, 4 cryptocurrencies await Thursday's Washington press conference
$BTC 80,980
80,000 is the maximum strike price for options this cycle, with market makers placing a large number of hedge orders here. The Washington press conference early Thursday, after a rate hike in September, will most likely keep rates unchanged this time. However, with inflation still high at 3.7%, if the speech is hawkish, the 80,000 level will be tested. Avoid heavy speculation.
$ENA 0.215
High interest rate environment actually benefits these yield-bearing coins 🌾
USDe earns interest by collateralizing short-term U.S. Treasuries. If the Washington speech is hawkish and the high interest rate cycle is extended, the appeal of yield-bearing stablecoins will increase. This logic is contrary to the usual expectations of rate cuts, so do not blindly chase.
$ASTER 0.704
Multi-chain contract DEX is currently inactive 🛰️
The project rules are complete, but trading volume is only a few hundred thousand USD, with funds waiting on the FOMC outcome. Without new event catalysts, it is difficult to attract funds in the short term.
$HYPE 77.3
Protocol fee dividends await quarterly settlement 📊
Holding HYPE entitles you to on-chain transaction fee shares. On-chain trading data is strong this week, but the coin price has not risen accordingly; the market is waiting for the quarterly dividend to be implemented.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ZEC 1225 is like an iron lid, multiple attempts to break through have been pushed back.
What's even funnier is that the short whale holds $187 million in short positions, making a fortune.
The price has dropped to 1182, yet the funding rate is still positive.
This shows that these retail investors are stubbornly holding against the trend, paying interest to the shorts every day.
The main players are dumping their holdings onto retail investors, just waiting for the next wave of liquidation to the downside.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇In the past 24 hours, BTC hit a low of 79505 (OKX), while Binance was at 79468. The 80,000 line was truly broken once, but now it's back above 80,700.
Wintermute's reminder came just in time: after three consecutive weeks of decline, 80,000 is a key support. The support was pierced once before being bought back, which is quite ironic.
I see quite a bit of divergence. On one hand, people say the support is critical; on the other, CryptoQuant data shows the proportion of dormant coins falling to 26.59%, indicating early funds are moving; the four major Korean exchanges still have a 0.73% premium. The funding rate is 0.01%, no squeeze, OI is 2.57 billion USD, and no one is rushing to leverage up.
To take a side: this time is a probe, not a hold. If it really drops further, it depends on whether the next layer can hold; standing above 80,000 for a few more days means this three-week decline has finally eased.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $GRVT GRVT, with this chip structure, still dares to crowd into shorting, purely because they think the margin is too high.
Single-day contract positions surged nearly 13%, but the tradable circulating supply outside is pitifully small, with extremely concentrated control.
Now a bunch of shorts in derivatives are holding on hard; if the main force slightly ignites to trigger a forced liquidation, the shorts' liquidation orders will directly convert into market buy orders.
The more it rises, the more shorts get swept; once entering this chain reaction of forced liquidations and short squeezes, the shorts are passively helping the whales pump the price.
#GRVT
$GRVT
👇Regarding tokenized stocks, I stand with Ethereum.
Just saw that OKX's tokenized stock plan wants to be based on Ethereum, but it was opposed by 26 issuers. It feels frustrating, but that's the reality—everyone wants to hold the bowl of tokenized stocks themselves, and who controls the settlement rights is even harder to negotiate than the product itself.
ETH is now hovering around 2341, with a 24-hour high/low of 2357/2297, not moving at all with this news. The market never reacts instantly to such matters.
My judgment: tokenized stocks will ultimately need to circulate cross-platform, and there's no way around Ethereum's network. Opposition aside, there are only one or two chains that can serve as a universal settlement layer, and I bet on Ethereum.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $PEPE ‘s breaking out of a clean triangle while most altcoins are still underperforming BTC by a wide margin. Normally that order’s reversed BTC leads, real-utility alts follow, meme coins move last once risk appetite is fully back. When meme coins go first, it’s usually not conviction, it’s bored capital chasing the highest-beta trade in the room. Worth remembering before reading this as a market-wideThe FOMC decision lands tonight, and what BTC fears most might not be "no rate hike"
What worries me more is not the Fed holding rates steady tonight, but the Fed framing "no rate hike for now" as "high rates will persist longer." The rate decision itself has likely been priced in by the market; what can truly cause risk assets to reprice is whether the statement and press conference signal a more hawkish stance.
If the Fed continues to emphasize inflation risks and avoids giving a timeline for easing, even without a rate hike, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may strengthen first. BTC then faces not a "no rate hike" tailwind, but a recalculation of the cost of holding risk assets. Conversely, if the wording is not clearly hawkish and the market hears clues of cooling inflation or weakening employment, a pause in tightening could leave room for a rebound.
So I don’t plan to focus solely on the rate outcome. BTC’s 24-hour range is about $79,505–$81,298; if after the meeting the price rallies back near $81,300 with volume, and the dollar and yields do not continue to rise, the bearish view won’t hold. If yields strengthen and BTC falls below around $79,500, it would look more like trading on "high rates lasting longer." A single drop isn’t enough to confirm a trend reversal; price and macro reactions need to corroborate each other.
The real test this time is how the market interprets the Fed’s next steps. Before the meeting, no one should bet on a single direction; wait for the statement, press conference, and price to align before deciding whether to follow.
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Last night, the US stock market continued to rebound, with the Nasdaq rising 1.18% and the S&P 500 up 0.60%. The AI and semiconductor sectors regained investor attention. However, BTC did not strengthen in sync, and the market remains cautious. Why did the US stock market rise while the crypto space showed little movement? I think the key lies in interest rate expectations and institutional funds. ① Strong US economic data may not be good news for the crypto market. The October Consumer Confidence Index released last night rose to 91.7, significantly above the market expectation of 81; September durable goods orders increased by 1.8%. Economic resilience is positive but may also give the Federal Reserve more reason to maintain high interest rates. Conversely, if inflation pressure eases, a strong economy can support risk appetite. ② Oil prices fell, easing macroeconomic pressure. Brent crude oil dropped nearly $2 last night, closing at $113.88. Middle East diplomatic talks brought some easing expectations, but supply disruption risks remain. If oil prices continue to decline, it will help alleviate inflation concerns; if conflicts escalate again, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may still pressure BTC and ETH. ③ ETF funds remain differentiated. Verified data for October 26: US spot BTC ETF net inflow of $110.3 million, ETH ETF net outflow of $88.6 million. Complete data for October 27 is not yet confirmed. Single-day fund changes cannot determine the market trend, but if BTC continues to receive inflows and ETH continues outflows, their relative strength may further diverge. ④ At 2 a.m. tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. North This morning someone told me again that XRP is going to crash because Ripple will unlock 1 billion tokens on November 1st. I've heard this dozens of times a year; every time before an unlock, someone shouts it out.
The current price is 1.318, 2% higher than 24 hours ago, and it hasn't broken yesterday's low of 1.285. The market has long priced in the unlock; if they really wanted to dump, they wouldn't give a heads-up in advance.
On the other hand, Bassett said at Ripple Swell that digital asset competition can strengthen the US dollar's position. Hearing this from the Treasury Secretary is a completely different tone compared to the SEC's stance from a few years ago.
I'll watch the volume closely on the unlock day; if it really breaks below yesterday's low, I'll admit I was wrong.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 To start with a bit of cold water, I don't take this statement as a collective pass for the crypto market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated at the Ripple Swell conference that digital assets can help consolidate the dollar's global dominance; he mentioned that over 90% of stablecoins are backed by the dollar, with issuers often holding U.S. Treasuries as reserves, and that adoption growth could drive demand for related assets. From my reading, he acknowledges the ability of digital assets to serve the dollar, not the value of all crypto assets.
I'm cautious for two reasons. First, policy goals and market imagination are not the same: emphasizing technological leadership does not equal a commitment to deregulation, so directly translating this statement into an all-around positive is missing a step. Second, expanded use of stablecoins could deepen on-chain dependence on the dollar. If new payments and settlements revolve more around the dollar, then non-dollar stablecoins might face stronger competition. This is my speculation; technology adoption and currency diversification do not necessarily move in the same direction.
Of course, I might be pouring cold water too early. Bessent believes stablecoins will open new markets rather than just replace existing dollars; if we later see real new usage and clear, actionable policy arrangements, I will raise my evaluation of this news. I will focus on actual adoption and rule implementation going forward, and will not use a single macro statement to stamp the entire market.As soon as Robinhood's earnings report came out, the stock dropped nearly 10% in one day. I'm not catching this falling knife.
Q3 revenue was $1.42 billion, up 12% year-over-year, but net profit was $476 million, down 14% year-over-year, missing Wall Street's expectations.
The drag came from crypto: crypto trading revenue dropped to only $120 million, a direct cut of 55%.
The prediction market, on the other hand, exploded, with event contract revenue at $173 million, more than six times higher.
HOOD contracts fell from 96.8 all the way down to 87.75, with the daily MA20 around 100.7 and MA50 around 109.4, all pressing down overhead.
I think the market is recalculating: the prediction market is truly growing, but it still can't cover the hole left by crypto.
If the coin price doesn't recover, this company's profits will be hard to look good.
I'll wait first.
If the daily closes back above 96.8, filling the earnings gap, then we'll talk; if it breaks below the late July low of 83.9, then I'll look further down.
Do you believe more in the prediction market supporting the valuation, or that crypto's slump will continue to drag it down?
$HOOD #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 💻 According to my code review: Blockaid monitoring shows that the Tranche Vault on Avalanche has been under continuous attack, with about two transactions stealing approximately $1.01 million. The attacker used flash loans to mint inflated shares, then redeemed the remaining USDC in the vault.
My judgment: The focus should be on share accounting; it’s not just the flash loan’s fault. If shares don’t correspond to real assets, redemption can turn inflated numbers into actual fund loss; since the attack is still ongoing during monitoring, it also means the loss prevention mechanism needs to be reviewed. Which specific part has a bug still requires technical disclosure.
If it were me, I would first verify whether the assets and shares before and after minting and redemption are consistent, then test if pausing is possible under abnormal conditions, rather than just blocking the flash loan entrance. Please help review: which should be prioritized for fixing, asset consistency verification or single redemption limit, and why?Ondo's official blog states: On October 27, 15 tokenized US stocks and ETFs were connected to Robinhood Chain, among which 11 entered Uniswap v4's StablePair pool along with the corresponding Robinhood Stock Tokens. They can also be bridged from Ethereum or BNB Chain via Ondo Bridge. CoinGecko spot price for ONDO is about $0.422 (snapshot around 10:03 Beijing time).
The real change happens over the weekend. When Robinhood's minting and redeeming is closed on weekends, Ondo can still mint and redeem at the current price. The corresponding tokens on both sides can be swapped within the pool, filling the liquidity gap during market closure days, not simply adding another chain. Critics will watch the pool depth and whether weekend price differences can be arbitraged away. Launching does not mean trading volume has picked up, nor does it mean the token price will rise.
Let's first observe the two weekends after launch. If StablePair remains almost inactive for a long time, this is just product groundwork; if price differences are pulled back and weekend trading continues, it means the market closure window is truly being utilized. If the pool remains unused after launch, treat this as a progress update, not a new narrative.
$ONDO
#ONDO #Tokenization After the U.S. midterm elections, things are about to heat up again!
Geopolitical risks are rising! The U.S. may take military action against Iran after the midterm elections.
According to The Wall Street Journal on October 28, the U.S. has warned several Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a brief but intense military operation after the elections. However, no final decision has been made yet, and diplomatic negotiations remain uncertain.
If the Middle East situation escalates, risks to crude oil supply could push oil prices higher, and gold may attract safe-haven funds. Bitcoin may not necessarily benefit; once the market enters a risk-off mode, capital withdrawal from risk assets could bring short-term selling pressure.
Next, focus on U.S.-Iran negotiations, crude oil trends, and BTC key support levels. News does not equal action, and expectations do not equal trends. Before the situation becomes clear, controlling leverage and avoiding chasing highs or selling lows is more important than rushing to bet on a direction. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 Within one day, the Ethereum ETF went from nearly setting a monthly outflow record to attracting $246 million in a single day.
On October 28, the US spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $246 million, with Fidelity's FETH contributing $99.27 million and BlackRock's ETHA adding another $76.37 million. However, as of this Monday, the ETH ETF still had a cumulative net outflow of $1.26 billion for October.
$ETH is around 2,351. The price is stuck at the convergence of three lines: the on-chain average cost at 2,310, the 200-day EMA at 2,315, and the large holder cost base at 2,328, where it has found support multiple times in the past three days. 2,355 is the first resistance above; closing above it would mean truly escaping the danger zone.
$BTC is around 81,000, with an intraday high of 81,300. The ETF had a net inflow of about $119 million yesterday, but excluding the single leading product, the rest remain weak. The cumulative net outflow for ETFs in October is about $202 million. Prices are rising, but the ETF gap has not yet been filled.
$SOL is around 101. The SOL ETF had a net outflow of $19.15 million yesterday, all from one product. The $100 level is barely holding, but buying pressure has been continuously absent.
In short: The probability of no change in interest rates is over 90%, but the single-day reversal of the ETH ETF shows that money is not absent; it is just waiting for a sufficiently cheap entry point. Among the three coins, ETH has already seen the first inflow, while BTC is still waiting for the second.
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
US Stock Market Analysis: AI Funds Violently Replenish, But Someone Is Quietly Taking Profits
Overnight, the Nasdaq rose 1.18% to reclaim the 100-day moving average, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.60%. On the surface, it looks like an AI bull comeback, but breaking it down, the Goldman Sachs AI Index soared 5.08%, while the S&P components excluding AI actually fell 0.32%. The funds are concentrated in single-point explosions; all the gains are among “insiders.”
Macro news impact on various assets:
The core catalyst is Broadcom securing $63 billion financing to help Anthropic buy chips, plus Meta’s $25 billion secondary offering oversubscribed 5 times, and Oracle expanding cooperation with OpenAI.
Where is the money coming from? The market is answering with real money the question “Who is really paying for AI?” But note, oil prices have fallen below $100 for two consecutive times, gold dipped to 3989 before sharply rebounding to 4061, and the US dollar index rose 0.35%—both safe-haven and risk assets rising simultaneously, making the market situation itself quite strange.
Capital flows:
Cloud service providers and chip stocks are being aggressively bought; Nebius rose 11%, CoreWeave nearly 8%, AMD 5.45%. But Microsoft fell 0.24% after hours, showing divergence among the seven giants. Hot money is moving into second-tier AI concepts, while some big stocks are taking profits at highs.
Two massive financings forcibly extend the AI narrative, but tonight’s Federal Reserve decision and Microsoft and Google earnings reports are the ultimate tests.$PONS has warmed up for two consecutive days, with a daily trading volume of 35M, a week-on-week increase of 8.3%, significantly recovering from last week's low of 24M.
Platform fees are 354K (+14%), protocol revenue 53K (+10%), token issuance 1.5K (+7%), and number of trades 337K (+21%). The total DEX volume on Robinhood Chain dropped from 742M to 586M, but PONS has risen, increasing its market share.
150,000 tokens have been burned, totaling 32.8%. The buyback pool still has 266,000 tokens left, with 104,405 tokens held. The latest version of Robinhood Wallet now supports PONS, and the 30M level is very likely to hold steady.Thailand has launched an app called WORPT, which allows foreign tourists to convert USDT and USDC into Thai Baht, then pay by scanning local Thai PromptPay QR codes.
The developers are Waan Exchange and Wipay, with Tether as one of the partners. The project operates within the Thai SEC's TouristDigiPay regulatory sandbox.
One detail is easy to overlook. Stablecoins are not paid directly to merchants. They are first converted into Thai Baht within the app, then processed through PromptPay. Merchants receive Thai Baht, and the acquiring system has no connection to cryptocurrency.
Sandbox limits: no more than 100,000 Thai Baht per transaction, and no more than 550,000 Thai Baht per month.
The design intention is very clear. The first real use case for stablecoins found in Thailand is currency exchange for tourists. At the local payment layer, it has not yet touched $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ATOM market is still pricing ATOM with "infinite inflation," but its underlying logic has already shifted.
In August 2026, Cosmos Hub officially switched to a fee buyback and burn model, and Osmosis terminated OSMO inflation with a 91% voting rate, also canceling new ATOM minting. The supply side changed from "only increasing" to "decreasing," marking a structural turning point, not a short-term sentiment.
On the demand side, IBC v2 is linking Solana and all EVMs, while the global RWA tokenization market is expected to expand to $418.6 billion by 2026—ATOM’s role is to be the trustless settlement layer for cross-chain flow of these assets.
The price is stuck in the critical decision zone of 1.60–1.63; once it breaks above 1.85 with volume, the path to 2.20 will open. Coupled with an 18%+ staking annualized yield, the cost of waiting is gradually being offset by returns.
The suspense has never been about the price itself, but whether ATOM near 1.6 will still be waiting for you when the market finally understands the deflation + RWA play.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 刚刷到一根急拉，群里立刻有人把目标改到六位数，前脚还在等六万。你身边也有这种一秒换剧本的声音吗？ 我盯着盘面那一下，第一反应不是兴奋，是觉得吵。价格一动，叙事就跟着动，昨天还在教你等深水区的人，今天已经开始画更高的位置。表面看是情绪热闹，真正要看的却是板块强弱：谁在领涨，谁只是被带着弹一下，谁冲高后没人接。这个落差比口号重要得多。 BTC 破不破某个整数位，本身只是触发点。市场实际在交易的，是风险偏好有没有回来、杠杆敢不敢加、回调有没有人愿意接。如果只有头部资产走强，ETH 和山寨跟不上，那更像一次情绪修复，不是全面回暖。反过来，若回调时量能收得住、板块内部有接力，才说明承接是真的。 偏多的路径在于：突破后不急着追高，等回踩确认，让强势板块自己证明韧性。潜在风险是，大家把"看见上涨"误当成"趋势已定"，提前把降息、增量资金、新高预期都计价进去，结果一根回撤就把追进去的人洗出来。更隐蔽的是，价格越热闹，越容易忽略板块之间的分化，表面红一片，真实承接却很薄。 我自己的节奏是，不跟喊单比嗓门，先看强弱排序和回踩质量。热闹可以看，仓位要慢。你更在意突破那一下，还是回踩那一下？ 时间会奖励有耐心Today there are signs of capital inflow, but it is still far from confirming a reversal. BTC spot and futures both show net inflows on the 4-hour timeframe, ETH's leveraged capital replenishment is stronger, while SOL shows a divergence pattern with spot absorbing and futures continuing to withdraw.
$BTC
🔻4-hour spot net inflow of $111 million, futures net inflow of $36.18 million. Over 24 hours, spot still has a net inflow of $179 million, but futures have turned to a net outflow of $92.74 million. More importantly, the 30-day cumulative net outflow of futures has expanded to $7.83 billion. Short-term buying has returned somewhat, but the mid-term deleveraging process is not over.
$ETH
🔻4-hour spot net inflow of $51.64 million, futures net inflow as high as $221 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $87.02 million, futures net inflow is $185 million. However, from a 30-day perspective, spot has a net outflow of $3.77 billion, and futures net outflow reaches $8.29 billion. The short-term replenishment is clearly stronger than BTC, but the mid-term capital structure remains weak.
$SOL
🔻4-hour spot net inflow of $8.66 million, futures net inflow of $4.53 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $23.7 million, but futures have a net outflow of $58.94 million. The 30-day cumulative net outflow of futures is $2.17 billion.
Going forward, the key focus is whether the rebound can attract sustained incremental capital. If it is only a stock game, there is still a risk of a pullback after the rally. This time I'm siding with ETH first. BTC really broke through 80,000 last night, hitting a low of 79,505 on OKX, while ETH just brushed 2,297 and is now hovering above 2,340.
The contradiction is that money and price are moving in opposite directions. October isn't over yet, but the US spot ETH ETF has already seen a net outflow of over a billion dollars (about 1.18 billion as of 10/23), making it the worst month this year; at this rate of bleeding, the price should have collapsed long ago, but 2,300 just won't break.
The Federal Reserve decision is at 2 AM Beijing time tomorrow. They just raised 25 basis points in September, and about 90% of CME bets that there will be no change this time. I won't add positions before the shoe drops, using 2,300 as the dividing line.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议