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First, a quick reversal: last night I thought it would go down further, but today's rebound must be acknowledged. The short positions I held from yesterday were cut off above 80,000, and now I'm basically out of positions, not in a hurry to get back in. Bitcoin is currently around 80,900, up a bit over 1% in a day, and the 80,000 level has been reclaimed; Ethereum is at 2,350, up 1.7%, even stronger than Bitcoin. My current view is that the short-term downtrend is over, but I really don't recommend chasing longs. The variable here is this: yesterday's drop was too fast, and today feels more like a recovery from panic. To confirm a trend reversal, we still need to see if 80,000 can hold for two days. Leave some room in your positions; don't go all in right at the open. What do you think—can the 80,000 level hold for a few days, or will it be smashed down again in a couple of days?Copy trading leads to loneliness! The top KOL on the leaderboard earned about $1.14 million in a month, but someone who copied his trades bought 925 coins and ended up with only $2,524 😂
I just saw a pretty painful experiment. Someone copied all the coins bought by the top 50 on an on-chain KOL leaderboard from September 26 to October 26, a 30-day period. They copied every buy and sell, investing only $10 per coin, with 2% fees on both buy and sell plus 3% slippage.
In 30 days, they followed 55,578 trades in total, making about $16,139, which looks pretty good at first glance. But breaking it down is a bit painful: out of 50 people, 23 caused losses, only 31% of the coins followed were profitable, and about 43% of the profits came from just 10 coins.
The most ridiculous part is the top few. The number one earned about $1.14 million themselves, but the copier only had $2,524 left. Number 4 earned about $285,000 in 30 days, but the copier bought 4,766 coins and actually lost $1,160. The bottom-ranked person earned over $40,000, but the copier lost $3,127. The wallet had to hold about $15,700 at the same time to manage so many trades.
The KOL shows their own account, but when you press buy, the entry price, speed, and slippage are all different. On the same candlestick, some make profits, but most who follow only get a taste, and sometimes even that taste is cold.
For beginners, it’s recommended to watch more and trade less. When buying coins, only buy $BTC Watching the market until now, I suddenly feel this market is very ironic. What crushed the sentiment today was not macro data, nor the Federal Reserve, but "our own people" pulling out first.
Arthur Hayes only said on X, "I sold everything," then dumped 6,400 ETH, about $15.2 million. His meaning is very straightforward: first the drop, then the rise. More strikingly, the Ethereum Foundation's related wallet sold 2,785 ETH on CoW Swap at an average price of $2,304, cashing out $6.42 million and converting it into stablecoins. The project side is taking profits at this point, while retail investors are still waiting for the bull to return.
The ETF didn't give any face either. On October 27, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a single-day net outflow of $88.58 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone seeing an outflow of $104.71 million, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow. Throughout October, ETH ETFs had a cumulative outflow of over $1 billion, more than three times the outflow scale of Bitcoin ETFs. This is not an ordinary correction; it's money voting.
My short position average price is 2,583, current price 2,307, floating profit 1069%, liquidation price 2,779, with over four hundred dollars buffer in between. The position is not large, following the capital flow, not the illusion of "it will rebound after falling too much." Below, there is $978 million worth of long liquidation orders hanging at $2,209, like a hanging knife.
I don't guess the bottom, I only watch where the money goes. The Foundation and Hayes are both selling; how many more days can 2,300 hold?
$BTC $ETH #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $SOFI held onto its pre-market gains and continued to surge during the session, up 13%.
The management rarely provided a full-year guidance for fiscal 2027, with EPS at $0.90, representing over 50% year-over-year growth compared to fiscal 2026, which itself is expected to see a 50% EPS increase.
This is a company with at least 50% EPS growth for two consecutive years, and given Anthony Noto's style, this $0.90 guidance is very likely quite conservative, meaning Sofi's growth in 2027 could be even faster.
However, the market still values Sofi at less than 20 times forward PE, so the stock remains undervalued. A short-term target of $20 is set, and I am optimistic that Sofi can return to its historical high of $30 by 2027.
Of course, risks remain; no matter how strong the management's execution is, they cannot control macroeconomic headwinds. Tomorrow's Federal Reserve speech will be the most important short-term event affecting Sofi's stock price. A rate hike is unlikely, but the tone on December will be very critical.
I will update Sofi's latest target price later this week.$BTC has risen 109%, climbing from 44% over more than seven hours — but when I glance at the safety cushion, it's only 1.08%, and that little bit of excitement immediately fades.
Opened a long position at 80,046.4 with 100x leverage, now at 80,921.8.
From 44% to 109%, that's an increase of 65 points. That wouldn't mean much on other trades, but with 100x leverage, those 65 points came at the cost of a displacement of 875.4 points. In other words, if it retraces 875.4 points, this doubling will be wiped out completely, not a cent left.
What I fear most are the three words "within reach." 81,000 is just 78.2 points away, 0.10% — tonight I've paid too many tuition fees on these three words. $ZEC changed hands three times at the 1300 threshold, $SNDK hovered around 1300 for two hours but couldn't break through. "Almost there" and "definitely will get there" are never the same.
The three things I fear most: first, the itch to add positions and push to 200%. Second, the 1.08% cushion is too thin, just a pinprick away. Third, dawn is near, exhaustion is extreme, yet this is when I need to be most alert.
So don't fight it. Realize most profits, move the stop-loss up to break even. Reduce positions if it falls back to 80,000, then watch 82,000 after it stands above 81,000. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $HYPE
123,000 HYPE, just over 10 million USD, a whale that had been silent for 27 days directly bought from Wintermute last night.
At the same time, Bitwise's BHYP ETF wallet received 47,000 tokens after unbonding, worth over 3.7 million USD. A whale and an ETF, same coin, same night, both moving in.
HYPE current price just over 81, 24-hour low at 77.2, up about 4% intraday. I don't dare chase at this level; HYPE above 80 is no longer the cheap token it was at the start of the year. But a whale daring to hold 10 million from Wintermute, I take note of this signal.
Last time when the top traders on the four major platforms were only 9% long, I was bearish and got proven wrong. This time I won't rush to take sides; I'll first see if the whale's cost zone holds.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $SOL
Polymarket's US version quietly launched a new feature last night: 5-minute crypto price rise/fall predictions, featuring only four coins—BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP.
This selection of four coins is quite telling. Prediction markets used to settle daily or weekly, but now they've compressed it into 5-minute rounds, effectively institutionalizing short-term speculation. SOL making it into this top four is not without reason; in terms of volatility and retail participation, the platform treats it as a standard.
I casually checked the current price; SOL is hovering around 101, with a 24-hour low of 99.2, having recovered quite neatly. Today is also a Federal Reserve decision day, and having this kind of 5-minute market on a decision day is like the casino of casinos.
My view: this is a double-edged sword for SOL. The attention is genuinely coming, but these new participants don’t hold positions—they only bet on direction, so volatility will be amplified by sentiment. The platform knows better than us which coin’s volatility is most valuable, and that statement alone carries weight.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 There are new rules for new orders, and I've fixed them into four points, leaving no room for my 6 AM self.
For $AKE here, 20x short, entry at 0.0232, current price 0.02151, floating profit 145.68%.
Three numbers decide life or death: fallback 7.85%, floor 0.021, ceiling 0.023.
Fallback 7.85% — it needs to rise 7.85% to reach the cost line. The cushion is moderately thin, so you can calmly take profits, but it's not at the "just wait" level. The real "just wait" is for old orders buffered by seventy or eighty.
0.0215 is right on the face (0.05%), the closest level tonight. 0.021 is 2.37% below the feet; breaking it is the first target; 0.02 is another 7.05% down, which is the real space. Above, 0.023 will speak again after being stepped on (7.42% overhead).
Four rules:
1. Stand back above 0.023, reduce position. Don't wait for the cost line; admit failure if the breakout fails.
2. Only talk about 0.02 if it breaks below 0.021. If broken, expect a pullback confirmation.
3. Give it a deadline. At 20x leverage, funding fees are deducted based on nominal position; fees apply even if the direction is correct. Staying flat for a day eats up nearly half the profit.
4. Do not add a single share. Adding to the position turns one gamble into two. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Rebounded to 80.6K, but I first took a look at the perpetual contract open interest, and my heart skipped a beat. Is this wave a real reversal, or just a brief respite after selling pressure? Last night while watching the market, BTC slid from 84.9K down to 79.2K, and the slope of that drop looked pretty scary. Now the price is back near 80.6K, the 4-hour structure still looks weak, but what really concerns me isn’t this small bullish candle, but the activity on the derivatives side. During this decline, the perpetual open interest didn’t collapse significantly, indicating that many leveraged positions are being passively held rather than actively closed out. In other words, the panic selling isn’t completely over. The key level is clear: if 81K can be reclaimed, the rebound structure will look better; if it gets pushed back down, then 80K and 79.2K are the next levels to watch. But what I want to say is the second layer—if 81K repeatedly fails to break through and open interest doesn’t decrease, then what’s likely coming isn’t a slow decline but another sharp forced deleveraging drop to flush out long positions. Under this rhythm, BTC’s rebound will seem very "fake"; the smoother the rebound, the more you need to watch if it’s just setting up shorts for a strike. From the perspective of sector rotation, this derivatives structure has a more subtle transmission effect on ETH and altcoins. When BTC leverage hasn’t been fully cleared, funds are reluctant to rush into high-beta altcoins; ETH at best follows the rebound but struggles to show independent strength. It’s even more obvious on the altcoin side—during rebounds, volume doesn’t keep up, indicating risk appetite hasn’t truly returned. On the bullish side, as long as 81K holds and open interest remains moderate "SK Hynix Earnings Night: AI Soaks Up Cash, Crypto Market Is Being 'Undermined'"
SK Hynix's Q3 operating profit is expected to surge, but its stock price has halved from the June peak. Despite explosive earnings, the stock can't rally because expectations have already been priced in; the real focus is on the HBM4 production schedule and shareholder returns during the earnings call.
For the crypto market, this earnings report is far from positive; it's a fatal "drain."
The massive capital expenditure on AI chips is competing with the crypto market for the same pool of risk capital. The most direct impact is that miners are shifting computing power toward the more stable-profit AI hosting; meanwhile, rising DRAM prices continuously push up mining machine costs, systematically raising BTC's marginal production cost. Although the correlation between BTC and South Korea's KOSPI index has turned negative to -0.41, on a macro level, the AI capital cycle is like a black hole, sucking dry incremental off-exchange funds, causing a severe "fuel shortage" in the crypto market.
Looking back at the market, $BTC is repeatedly tugging at the psychological 80,000 level, with the FOMC holding steady as expected. The biggest risk now is a chain reaction of leveraged liquidations if 80,000 breaks down. $ETH has even broken below the 2350 trendline, funding rates have plummeted 56%, and whales have quietly turned bearish. Currently, EMA120 (around 2333) is the mid-term watershed that ETH bulls must defend.
The earnings report confirms a harsh reality: AI's capital pull remains strong, and crypto's current "relative weakness" is not simply a sentiment retreat but a structural problem caused by the withdrawal of underlying funds. The short-selling script was disrupted by the rebound: $BTC and $ETH surged early—Is this a preemptive move or a bull party before the event?
I originally expected a risk-off pullback before the Federal Reserve announcement, but BTC and ETH disrupted the short-sellers' rhythm first. Currently, BTC is at $80,888, up about +1.1% in 24 hours; ETH is at $2,350, up about +1.8%. The short position profit-taking targets have not been approached; instead, this rebound has pushed them further away.
From the daily chart, BTC RSI(6) has risen to 43.06, ETH to 35.80, both moving out of previously weak zones; large net inflows of funds for both, with BTC about +3,128 BTC and ETH about +29,639 ETH. This indicates that short-term buying and covering forces are lifting prices, not just a volume-less pump.
However, I still do not consider this a trend reversal for now. BTC and ETH's MACD remain in a death cross structure, BTC has yet to break above MA7 and MA25, and ETH's supertrend is still bearish; both currently have trading volumes below the 7-day average. In other words, there is a rebound, but the trend confirmation is insufficient.
The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on 2026-10-28. The market's real trading focus may not only be on the interest rate itself but also on the post-announcement statements regarding inflation and subsequent policy paths. For me as a short-seller, what to watch next is whether the rebound can expand volume and reclaim the short- to mid-term moving averages; if not, this rally looks more like an emotional rehearsal before the news lands rather than a complete trend reversal. I am the mid-term intelligence guy
24h total liquidations across the network reached 139.31 million, with long positions accounting for 57.5%.
I am closely watching the short cycle: nearly 8.89 million liquidated in the past hour, with longs as high as 8.27 million! The shorter the cycle, the more longs lose, indicating no major crash but weakening support, and momentum chasing the rally is being continuously cleaned out.
$BTC liquidations at 32.19 million (longs 63.7%),
$ETH at 23.75 million,
$SOL at 5.72 million.
BTC heatmap shows a large accumulation of liquidations between 81,700 and 82,900; a short-term rebound may test this area, but if it can't hold above 81,500, it remains bearish.
Considering the ETF funds from the day before only recognize BTC + this week's hawkish FOMC expectations,
Mid-term I insist: do not chase highs, beware of "selling the fact." Wait for the FOMC to cause a volume-shrinking dump, then buy BTC core support at lower levels, continue to watch ETH/SOL, prioritize stability!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The FOMC decision is very likely to keep interest rates unchanged. At 6 a.m., the market is no longer trading on the decision itself, but on Powell's wording about the December path in the latter half of his press conference. BlackRock's opposite moves on BTC and ETH are more straightforward than any directional judgment: IBIT alone absorbed a net inflow of $110.3 million for all Bitcoin ETFs, while ETHA saw a record single-day net outflow of $104.7 million on the same day.
$BTC is around 79,700. The area above 81,300 is a dense short liquidation zone, while 79,100–79,200 below is the thickest long liquidation layer. In the early morning, it is more likely to first trigger long stop losses downward, then depending on the wording decide whether it can reclaim 80,000; if 78,800 is broken, 77,600 comes into view.
$ETH is around 2,310. 2,300 is a psychological barrier; pressure from the ETF side remains unresolved. Holding it is necessary for recovery; if broken, 2,250–2,280 is the next layer.
$SOL is around 100. The area above 101.44–102.22 is a short liquidation zone, while 99.79–99.38 below is a dense long zone, with smart money short profits and retail holding positions. 98.6 is a stop-loss reference point; breaking below it will accelerate the squeeze.
In short: at 6 a.m., watch whether Powell's wording or liquidation levels speak first. For BTC, watch 78,800 and 81,300; for ETH, watch 2,300; for SOL, watch 98.6.
This is only a market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ ZEC is currently trading at about $1,297, up 3.16% in 24 hours, showing strength against the trend as Bitcoin falls below $80,000, making it one of the few assets recently outperforming the market. A key technical turning point has appeared: the daily MACD has just crossed above the signal line again, the histogram has turned positive after being negative for a whole month, and the RSI has risen to 51.93 and crossed above its own moving average, ending its previous state of staying below the moving average. The price oscillated around $1,235 throughout October, with buying pressure entering on dips and selling pressure encountered on breakouts. To confirm a recovery, it needs to reclaim $1,390 on the upside; the trendline support is near $1,170, and a daily close below $952 would invalidate the entire structure. There are three news points worth watching. October 28 marks ZEC's 10th anniversary; Grayscale's research head pointed out that its model of allocating 20% of block rewards to a development fund helped the network survive the long bear market. Co-founder Sean Bowe proposed a draft on October 26 suggesting to end the automatic 8% block subsidy flow to community grants and redirect it to a network sustainability mechanism, reasoning that the ZCG treasury has accumulated about $125 million with annual expenses of only about $6 million, resulting in a serious surplus of funds. Signals from the derivatives side are complex: 74% of whales on Hyperliquid are long, there is a $4 million sell wall at $1,232, and longs and shorts are locked in a very narrow range; any forced liquidation of one side could trigger a chain reaction. The defense quality between $1,170 and $1,235 is more worth watching than any single indicator.Nightclub girl's diary of going ashore to trade crypto
BTC is about to hit a resistance level, so I'm openly setting up short positions!
The previous drop already broke below 79,000, and now with this rebound, I plan to catch the pullback after the bounce.
The logic is actually very simple: it's a gamble on a secondary pullback after a weak rebound.
From a technical perspective, the 81,488 level is just below the previously broken dense chip area, which is a strong resistance for this rebound.
BTC is pulling up from 80,000, but the trading volume can't keep up—this is a typical low-volume bull trap, looking lively but lacking buying momentum.
This kind of low-volume rebound is the easiest to trap people; it looks like a stable counterattack, but mostly it's just shorts covering pushing the price up.
Once it faces pressure and turns down near 81,488, that's a comfortable shorting opportunity.
But you have to keep a backup plan: if volume surges and it holds above this resistance, then this bearish idea fails and you shouldn't stubbornly hold on.
Before the market settles, no one can guarantee anything. Low-volume rebounds have very low tolerance for error, so leverage must be light. Nightclub girls cashing out to trade crypto diary
The US and Canada have started tightening interest payments on stablecoins. To put it simply: payments are for payments, hoarding coins is for hoarding coins.
This round of regulation is not just drawing a simple line; the core is to cut off the path of "earning interest just by holding stablecoins."
The final rule from the US OCC will take effect on January 18, 2027: stablecoin issuers cannot pay interest directly just because users hold the tokens. Interestingly, the clause in the draft that "third-party rewards are directly considered violations" was removed and replaced with case-by-case review, effectively leaving a loophole for exchanges and similar third parties.
Canada has also started a 60-day consultation, planning to ban non-financial issuers from distributing yields to coin holders, to be implemented in fall 2027.
Many people's first reaction is that this is good news for Bitcoin, but in the short term, it’s not really a giveaway. The regulators want to firmly keep stablecoins positioned as payment tools, not to let them become substitutes for bank deposits.
The future landscape is gradually becoming clear: stablecoins are for transfers and payments; BTC is mainly for value storage and hoarding.
However, the US banking industry is already in an uproar. The banking association directly criticized the OCC’s rules, saying they will accelerate deposit outflows and squeeze community banks’ lending capacity.
The tug-of-war is far from over, and the detailed rules on stablecoin yields may still see repeated changes, with considerable uncertainty.
For the market, short-term sentiment disturbance is limited; long-term it is reshaping the capital logic. The space for earning passive income on stablecoins is gradually restricted, and funds will reconsider allocations among bank deposits, stablecoins, and BTC. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, a result already fully priced in by the market. What truly matters is the wording of the statement and the guidance from the chair's press conference — this will determine whether a rate hike in December is "highly likely" or "certain." The key contradiction lies in: inflation remains elevated (September core CPI up 0.3% month-over-month, 3.7% year-over-year) vs. marginal weakening in employment and growth (September nonfarm payrolls only 29,000). The Federal Reserve tends to "wait and see before acting," postponing the rate hike window to December, using more data from October-November to verify the persistence of inflation. Tonight is the decision night, there are a few numbers that are more useful than guessing the rise or fall
First, about last night's early moves: Micron rose 2.34%, the Nasdaq rose a bit over 1%, and Bitcoin also touched 80835. It looked lively, but the double high at 80850 wasn’t surpassed before sleep. If you’re really determined to go long, you wouldn’t miss these 15 points
Next, the rate is still positive, those going long are still paying rent. After a week of decline, there are still many bottom-fishers, but this doesn’t look like a bottom. The bottom comes when no one dares to bottom fish
Also MSTR, which just dropped 4.24% on Monday, Coinbase also fell nearly 3%. Both coin buyers and exchange operators are being sold off, this is more honest than candlestick charts
So now, outside is rushing in, inside is retreating. The phrase at 2 AM tonight is here to pierce through this paper-thin layer
My plan is simple: if 80850 holds, I’ll admit defeat and chase a bit; if it doesn’t hold, I’ll keep watching. If 79200 breaks, don’t reach out to catch it. Don’t be reckless before the knife falls
Anyone staying up late tonight, or are you all preparing to wake up and see the result?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH $MSTR US and Canada Tighten Stablecoin Interest Payments: Payments Are Payments, Hoarding Is Hoarding
The core of this round of stablecoin regulation in the US and Canada is not simply "drawing boundaries," but cutting off the path of "earning interest just by holding."
The US OCC's final rule will take effect on January 18, 2027: stablecoin issuers are prohibited from directly paying interest to users for holding tokens. More importantly, the draft's "third-party rewards are presumed violations" clause was removed and replaced with case-by-case review—effectively leaving a workable loophole for exchanges and other third parties. Canada has launched a 60-day consultation, proposing to ban non-financial institution issuers from paying yields to holders, effective fall 2027.
For BTC, in the short term, don’t treat it as "free tokens." Regulators are pressing stablecoins into payment tools, prohibiting them from becoming deposit substitutes, which actually clarifies BTC’s role as a "store of value": stablecoins are for spending, BTC is for hoarding.
But the US banking sector is already in uproar. The American Bankers Association criticizes the OCC for enabling deposit migration and threatening community bank lending. This tug-of-war is far from over, and stablecoin yield rules may still fluctuate.
$BTC $ETH
#美加稳定币监管明确收益边界
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC has been tugging back and forth around $80,000, but this week it faces a triple macro event convergence — this is not ordinary volatility, but a liquidity stress test. Wednesday's Fed rate decision, Thursday's US GDP and PCE inflation data, and Friday's roughly $11 billion Bitcoin options expiry all fall within the same week. The market's greatest fear has never been bad news, but the concentrated release of uncertainty. First, looking at the structure: BTC previously struggled to surge to $84,600, then fell back to the starting point, indicating real selling pressure above. $80,000 has become the dividing line between bulls and bears; the longer the price lingers here, the thicker the leverage buildup, making the pin effect of Friday's options expiry and market makers' hedging more likely to amplify volatility. The real risk is not direction, but rhythm — sudden sharp drops often occur when consensus is most lax. My judgment is cautious: if $80,000 is lost again, $76,000 will come into the retest view; conversely, only by holding above $82,000 can there be a short-term qualification to challenge $84,000 again. These two price levels carry more information than any prediction. $ETH and $ZEC will also be influenced by overall risk appetite, but this week's main focus is $BTC's options and the macro calendar. A second layer of logic worth emphasizing: the market generally treats the Fed decision as the sole variable but underestimates the timing mismatch between options expiry and macro data. After digesting Wednesday's decision, Friday's $11 billion expiry is the real liquidity event.Nightclub girls' diary of getting into crypto trading
Right now, the crypto market is a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with oscillations and spikes destined to be the main theme.
$BTC has seen tight capital recently, with 12-hour bullish and bearish forces almost balanced, bears holding a slight edge. Most of the liquidations are from longs, with 6,997,700 U worth of long positions wiped out. There’s a cluster of short orders piled up at 81,142, while 79,494 is where long positions are concentrated. The current price is stuck between these two liquidation zones, increasing the risk of back-and-forth spikes.
$ETH shows bulls slightly stronger, but this advantage is unstable, and opinions remain divided. Many long orders are buried below 2,279, with pain points close to the current price. It basically follows $BTC and lacks the strength to form an independent one-sided trend.
$ZEC is also in a weakly balanced state, with bulls slightly stronger over 12 hours, but most liquidations are still from longs. It moves in sync with mainstream coins, with capital distribution balanced and no clear direction—typical consolidation and shakeout.
The common points for these three coins are clear: large divergence, capital fighting back and forth, and concentrated liquidation chips both above and below. In the short term, it’s highly likely to continue with back-and-forth spikes. Chasing rallies or selling into dips easily leads to losses on both ends. In this kind of market, controlling the rhythm is far more important than guessing the direction of price movements. Nightclub hostess's diary on landing and trading crypto
Funds are only flowing into Bitcoin, which hardly counts as a market-wide recovery.
On October 26, spot ETF data clearly diverged: BTC had a net inflow of $110.3 million, stopping the previous day's outflow of $137.9 million. In contrast, ETH continued to flow out with $88.58 million leaving, and SOL also saw an outflow of $8.2 million.
Although Bitcoin is seeing some capital return, the strength is quite average; the money that left yesterday hasn't been fully replenished today.
Money is coming in, but the price isn't keeping up, signaling that selling pressure above remains. ETH lacks incremental buying and is noticeably weaker. Once Bitcoin fails and turns downward, ETH will be the first to break, with key support levels easily breached. SOL's rebound looks resilient, but capital sentiment is cautious, so don't expect sustained strength.
In short, institutions are not fully entering to bottom-fish; they are merely reducing risk exposure and only dare to hold BTC as a safe haven.
The short-term outlook remains bearish. Until Bitcoin firmly breaks resistance levels, ETH and SOL rebounds should be seen as weak recoveries, so don't rush to go long. $BTC $ETH $SOL The Hormuz opening plan continues to be discussed, and oil prices have fallen. For risk assets, this might be a chance to catch a breath, but the reasons behind the decline need to be clarified.
If the market is trading on supply restoration, crude oil can be transported more smoothly, easing energy cost pressures, which helps many businesses and consumers. Such a drop in oil prices usually makes people more hopeful about an improved economic environment.
However, if the oil price decline comes from a clear weakening in demand, the implications are completely different. Less production by companies and less travel by consumers can also pressure crude oil, but risk assets may not feel comfortable because of it.
Therefore, I wouldn’t just label BTC as macro-favorable simply because oil prices turned green. I would also look at whether the stock market and other commodities show the same judgment—whether the market is betting on supply improvement or worrying about growth.
The changes brought by the current negotiation news are worth attention, but there’s no need to interpret a single decline as all inflation pressures being resolved. The actual procurement cost transmission to company accounts still takes time.
What’s been most exhausting recently is that every candlestick is accompanied by a complete story. I’d rather take it slower and clarify the reasons. Even if oil prices fall, buying into “supply restoration” versus buying into “demand weakening” can lead to very different experiences.
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Hynix's earnings report is approaching, and this time I want to hear more about Solidigm.
On October 23, the company announced it would stop evaluating potential IPO and pre-IPO financing plans for Solidigm. But the announcement also made it clear: the need for capacity expansion and investment still exists, and other financing methods will continue to be explored.
What concerns me about this is that the financial arrangements have changed, but the money needed for the business has not disappeared.
If the original plan was to support new US capacity through external financing, and now that path is paused, it’s worth asking how and when the investment will proceed next. Whether the group invests directly or seeks other capital will affect fund allocation.
This also touches on another issue shareholders care about: how to balance capacity expansion and cash returns.
Progress on HBM4 is certainly important, but a company doesn’t operate solely on its hottest product line. The construction, financing, and capital arrangements of other businesses can also impact valuation.
I don’t think pausing the subsidiary’s IPO is necessarily a bad thing. When market conditions are unfavorable, not rushing to sell asset stakes may better serve existing shareholders’ interests. But a feasible alternative plan must be presented next.
It’s good if products sell well; good financial arrangements are what make that growth more stable. I hope management covers both aspects thoroughly in today’s conference call.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Before this rate decision, I specifically reviewed the minutes from the last meeting. There's a detail worth discussing: the Federal Reserve mentioned that it can purchase short-term Treasury securities if necessary to maintain ample bank reserves.
Seeing the words "purchase Treasury securities," the crypto community easily gets excited, immediately associating it with a new round of easing. But what problem this operation actually solves needs to be clarified first.
Supplementing reserves to maintain the normal operation of the money market is different in purpose and transmission from large-scale purchases of long-term assets to lower financing costs. Focusing only on the words "buy bonds" can easily lead to misreading a technical operation as a policy shift.
In this meeting, I will pay attention to operational arrangements beyond the interest rate statement: whether there are changes in reserve management and how the authorities explain them. Even if relevant adjustments occur, they need to be judged in combination with scale, duration, and implementation purpose.
Of course, I hope BTC will enjoy a more favorable funding environment. But if every time we see changes in the central bank's balance sheet, we immediately shout that the bull market is back, we will only confuse our own judgment.
Monetary policy is already complex enough; there is no need to flatten it with a few emotional labels. Rather than rushing to share "easing confirmed," I want to confirm through which channels this money enters the market and how long its impact will last. It's still timely to get excited after understanding it.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 After BTC fell below 80,000, the on-chain trend suddenly changed: retail investors are moving coins to exchanges, while whales are locking coins back up 🔒
In the past 24 hours, the amount of BTC deposited by retail investors has surged to a 6-month high. Translation: scared of the drop, they transfer first, ready to hit the sell button anytime 😰 Exchange deposit addresses are as busy as a clearance sale.
On the other hand, the amount of BTC whales deposit to exchanges has shrunk from 5.9 billion at the end of August to 3.8 billion, a 36% decrease. What does this mean? Big players have no intention to deliver at this price 🤔 The door isn’t just locked from the inside; they simply don’t want to open it.
So the picture becomes: retail investors anxiously queueing to hand over chips below, while whales quietly watch the show above, casually picking up the bloodied coins 🎭 You might think cutting losses is stop-lossing, but it could just be a change of ownership.
The most painful cycle for retail investors: afraid to miss out when prices rise, afraid of going to zero when prices fall, always a half-beat behind 📉 Whales don’t shout signals, they just watch on-chain actions.
The above is based on on-chain data analysis and does not constitute any trading advice ⚠️$BTW plunged to 0.87 yesterday (-47%) in one sharp drop, then bounced back to 1.74 today, up 53%. I only dare to watch and trade lightly with this kind of coin.
I just hit the top and got stopped out three times.
Its trading style over the past month can be summed up in four words: long and short both get hit.
Started at 0.5 at the end of September, on October 14th it squeezed shorts driven by Binance's hype to 2.75, with shorts liquidated for $2.9 million in one day; after the spike, it dropped back to 1.8 in two days, then repeatedly poked between 1.6 and 2.1. Last Friday it fell to 1.2, dropped directly to 0.87 yesterday, and pulled back to 1.74 today.
After a big bullish candle comes a big bearish one; those chasing highs and bottom fishing get buried alternately.
My next judgment: this is an oversold rebound, not a reversal.
Resistance at 1.87 and 2.08 is heavy with trapped positions; only 15% circulating supply, with more unlocking and selling pressure ahead. The near-zero fees indicate no shorts are being squeezed. This wave is bottom fishing, not a short squeeze.
My plan: don’t chase above 1.87; wait for volume to hold above 1.87 before lightly going long, targeting 2.08; also can buy on a stable pullback to 1.48–1.50; if it breaks 1.40, this rebound is invalid, watch 1.20.
Use small position and low leverage on contracts; this kind of market can spike and liquidate you twice in one move.
Do you think it will make a second run at 2.75, or continue stepping down after the rebound?
$BTW $BTC
#Bitway #Contract $ETH is bearish. In this +2.13% bullish candle, short positions worth $17.22 million were liquidated, while long positions only liquidated $3.77 million. The price increase is mainly driven by shorts being forced to cover. There are no clear signs of new leveraged longs; the funding rates for the three periods are slightly positive, which can only be considered background. The put/call open interest is basically balanced, but the put/call ratio of the day's trades surged to 2.79, indicating that some are concentrating on buying protection during the rise. The largest volume on the chart falls on the bullish candle, but much of this volume consists of shorts covering their positions, and after this squeeze, there is no follow-up. The descending trendline and moving averages are still aligned bearish overhead, and the price closed at the 24-hour high of 2,358.69, just below resistance. The short squeeze is nearing its end, and a pullback to test 2,296.3 is expected. Bullish reversal conditions: price holds above 2,358.69 and breaks through the descending trendline, which would invalidate this bearish view.这次披露的十一老板持仓更新中，ZEC空单已平仓，BTC、ETH多单仍在持有。关键区别不只是赚了多少，而是利润是否已经落袋，以及剩余仓位还承担什么风险。 📊 三笔仓位拆开看 BTC：30X全仓，持仓1 BTC，保证金2691.82U；开仓均价79801.9U，披露时标记价格80754.8U，浮盈+952.84U，收益率+35.82%。 ETH：同为30X全仓，持仓1 ETH，保证金78.15U；开仓均价2285.95U，披露时标记价格2344.78U，浮盈+58.82U，收益率+77.19%。 ZEC：10X逐仓空单，历史最大持仓2000 ZEC，开仓均价872.88U，平仓均价863.74U；披露的已实现收益为+17293.96U，收益率+9.90%。 💡 我的看法。 ETH收益率更高，但BTC浮盈金额更大，不能只凭百分比判断哪笔交易贡献更高，更不能把浮盈与已实现收益混成账户总收益。 ZEC平仓结束了这笔空单的价格敞口，但不等于剩下两笔多单就有了安全垫。BTC、ETH方向一致，若同步回撤，两笔浮盈可能一起收缩；全仓模式下，风险也不能只按各笔列示保证金理解。 比起用这次盈利证明策略有Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $80,000 throughout October. On-chain data explains the reason: this price is stuck between two key cost lines.
The resistance above comes from spot ETF investors. Glassnode data shows that the weighted average holding cost of spot Bitcoin ETFs across the U.S. is about $81,500. Every time the price rebounds to this range, it encounters many holders waiting to break even and exit. They entered at highs between late 2025 and early 2026, have been at a floating loss for months, and tend to sell once they break even. There are two support levels below. The first is the real market average price (the average buy cost of the entire market after excluding long-term inactive coins), about $77,500 to $78,000. The second is the average cost of short-term holders (those holding coins for less than 155 days), about $74,600. The $80,000 price is sandwiched in the middle: above, some are eager to exit; below, the defense line has not yet been reached. But looking further, the underlying structure is much more stable than it appears. The realized price across the entire network (the weighted average price of all Bitcoins' last on-chain transfer) is about $54,000, and the average cost of long-term holders (those holding coins for over six months) is only about $49,000. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $XRP
This morning someone told me again that XRP is going to crash because Ripple will unlock 1 billion tokens on November 1st. I've heard this dozens of times a year; every time before an unlock, someone shouts it out.
The current price is 1.318, 2% higher than 24 hours ago, and it hasn't broken yesterday's low of 1.285. The market has long priced in the unlock; if they really wanted to dump, they wouldn't give advance notice.
On the other hand, Bassett said at Ripple Swell that digital asset competition can strengthen the US dollar's position. Hearing this from the Treasury Secretary is a completely different tone compared to the SEC's stance from a few years ago.
I'll watch the volume on the unlock day; if it really breaks below yesterday's low, I'll admit I was wrong.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Today, we first look at capital inflows, but it's still too early to hastily judge a reversal. BTC spot and futures are synchronously flowing in short-term, ETH leverage funds are replenishing more noticeably, while SOL is supported by spot but futures are still retreating.
BTC spot net inflow in 4 hours is $111 million, futures net inflow is $36.18 million. Extending to 24 hours, spot net inflow is $179 million, but futures net outflow is $92.74 million. The 30-day futures net outflow has expanded to $7.83 billion, indicating short-term buying has returned, but mid-term deleveraging is not yet over.
ETH spot net inflow in 4 hours is $51.64 million, futures net inflow is $221 million. In 24 hours, spot net inflow is $87.02 million, futures net inflow is $185 million. However, 30-day spot net outflow is $3.77 billion, futures net outflow is $8.29 billion. Short-term replenishment is stronger than BTC, but mid-term capital structure remains weak.
SOL spot net inflow in 4 hours is $8.66 million, futures net inflow is $4.53 million. In 24 hours, spot net inflow is $23.7 million, but futures net outflow is $58.94 million. The 30-day futures cumulative net outflow is $2.17 billion, indicating spot buyers are present, but leverage funds remain cautious about the rebound.
BTC short-term funds are flowing back, ETH futures funds are rushing in, and SOL spot support is most obvious. It currently looks more like capital replenishment after continuous retreat, not a trend reversal yet. Continue to watch if the rebound can bring sustained incremental volume; otherwise, there is still a risk of pullback after a rally.The most fragile link in silver has never been its slow rise, but that it is always the first to be pulled away to absorb selling when the macro narrative is at its hottest. Can your long silver positions withstand a "false breakout followed by a pullback"? Over the weekend, I reviewed that 5–7 year silver roadmap, and at first glance, I was indeed dazzled by numbers like 269, 410–569. But what really made me pause was that it marked the most fragile node in February 2027: looking for a phased bottom in the 37–39 range. In other words, even the bulls admit there will be a retracement big enough to clear leverage along the way.💫 The signal I see is very clear: 36.57–38.82 is an area where multiple Fibonacci levels and wave structures overlap; such resonance zones are often not starting points but battlegrounds where bulls and bears repeatedly tug back and forth. And the 29.86 line looks more like a script’s lifeline—once broken, the entire wave count becomes invalid, and the narrative instantly shifts from a "long bull path" to "structural failure." Looking at crypto, silver’s rhythm is actually a mirror of risk appetite. When it strengthens, it usually corresponds to a warming narrative around physical assets and inflation hedging, with BTC often benchmarked as "digital gold" telling the same story; but once it repeatedly false-breaks at resonance levels, speculative heat on the altcoin side tends to retreat first, because capital becomes more selective about depth of absorption rather than blindly chasing narratives. Beta assets like ETH are most sensitive to this sentiment switch. The bullish path is also clear: if the 37–39 range really holds, gold continues to rise, the gold-silver ratio compresses toward 30–40, then silver’s elasticity willIn the 24-hour liquidation statistics for October 28, ETH and ZEC short liquidations were significantly higher than long liquidations, while BTC was nearly balanced. Compared to just looking at total liquidation amounts, this directional difference is more worth breaking down. ETH: total liquidation of 35.609 million U, accounting for 26.88%; long liquidations 8.1562 million U, short liquidations 27.4528 million U. It has the largest liquidation scale among the three and is the main target under short pressure in this round. BTC: total liquidation of 17.0729 million U, accounting for 12.89%; long liquidations 8.9886 million U, short liquidations 8.0844 million U. Long liquidations are slightly higher, so the same explanation of "shorts being squeezed out" cannot be applied. ZEC: total liquidation of 6.3653 million U, accounting for 4.80%; long liquidations 0.6618 million U, short liquidations 5.7035 million U. The total is lower than ETH, but the skew in liquidation direction is more pronounced. 💡 My view. The liquidation amount records passive exits, not new buying, and cannot be directly taken as the overall market long-short positions. The data for ETH and ZEC supports the interpretation of concentrated short pressure but is insufficient to prove sustained capital relay on the upside; BTC’s two-way liquidations remind us that synchronization between coins is lacking. Next, I pay more attention to the follow-up after liquidation: if volume follows when prices strengthen and open interest (OI) increases again, there is more reason to discuss new participation; if prices rise but OI continues to decline, caution is needed as the market is mainly driven by position exits, and a pullback may occur after momentum fades. Are you more focused on the follow-up after ETH liquidation or BTC?#Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC Book Gains Rebound Sharply
Brothers, Strategy (MSTR) is about to release its earnings report. Many will get excited seeing this quarter's numbers—according to the new FASB rules, Bitcoin rose in Q3, resulting in a direct $21 billion book gain on the balance sheet, with EPS potentially hitting double digits.
Old Mo advises you to cool down first. This money is "calculated," not "realized".
Recall last quarter, when the coin price dropped, the same company recorded an $8.3 billion book loss. The income statement followed the candlestick roller coaster, making it meaningless.
What really matters is that their actions changed this quarter. In Q3, they very prudently bought only 334 BTC but repurchased $193 million of STRC preferred stock and even raised the buyback authorization to $3 billion.
Got it? Previously, they were crazily issuing debt to buy coins; now they are paying down debt to reduce leverage. After all, that 12% dividend on preferred stock is a rigid expense that must be paid in cold hard cash.
Old Mo says: The $21 billion profit is for retail investors to see; stopping unlimited accumulation is for institutions. This company is transforming from a "crazy coin hoarder" to a "capital manager." When the earnings report comes out, watch their mNAV premium/discount closely—it’s much more useful than focusing on that inflated EPS.
What do you think about Strategy's strategic shift? Let's discuss in the comments. $ETH $BTC $SOL That's indeed the case. In two days, the spot ETF saw a net outflow of over 770 million, with last week's inflows completely withdrawn, and long-term holding addresses reduced by more than 50,000 coins. This isn't retail investors dumping; it's large funds actively buying back. Even gold is softening, and everyone prefers to hold cash and wait.
But when I watch the futures market, I feel conflicted. Prices are grinding below key levels, yet positions aren't decreasing. The total open interest is increasing day by day, and most liquidations are on long positions. The spot side is withdrawing, while the leveraged side is gambling; both sides are opposing each other, and neither yields.
The divergence among the four is clear: BTC, ETH, and SOL positions are all increasing; SOL is still hovering around the 100 level; ZEC is even rising against the trend with the most aggressive position increases. The more the market struggles, the more people seek refuge in the smaller players. This kind of structure is most vulnerable to a missed news trigger, which would cause a cascade on the leveraged side first.
Looking ahead, there are two potential triggers. Tonight, consumer confidence data will be released; early Thursday morning, the interest rate decision will be announced. A no-change decision is basically expected; the risk lies in the wording and the press conference. If the chairperson is firm, the tension for December remains. These two potential shocks could explode in the same direction, and the leveraged positions below key levels are the fuel. Before that, the market will likely continue to grind.
I'm not worried about whether this counts as panic; I focus on the structure: spot money is leaving, leveraged money is gambling. If the structure isn't fixed, the difference between grinding and a cascade is just one piece of news. As long as ETF flows don't turn positive for a day, any rebound should be seen as a pullback. I'm not rushing to bottom-fish. Real stabilization requires outflows to narrow, long-term holding addresses to stop decreasing, and ETH funding to improve. Only when these three signals align should we talk about catching up on gains. For now, controlling your impulses is more important than guessing the bottom 👀.There are only a few paths to making tens of millions, but the luck and risk vary greatly among them:
1. Early-stage low-price long-term holding (most common)
Investing early in coins like SOL and PEPE, holding without selling casually, and catching a big bull market that multiplies your investment dozens or even hundreds of times. Heavy positions can directly roll into huge profits. The difficulty is enduring long periods of volatility and sharp drops without cutting losses.
2. Catching a big market move with heavy short-term positions
Hitting extreme market conditions (sharp rises and falls, explosive positive news), using high leverage and precisely timing the main upward wave. This is the riskiest approach; you might make tens of millions once, but if you get the next heavy position wrong, you can easily lose it all. Leverage liquidation is common in crypto.
3. Running Ponzi schemes/contract signal services, communities, and monetizing traffic
Not profiting from trading itself, but from membership fees, commissions, and referral rewards. Many appear to make big money trading but are actually earning from others’ losses. This area often crosses legal boundaries.
4. Primary market, new token launches, whitelist
Getting early low-cost tokens and selling them at high prices after listing. High entry barriers requiring insider resources.
Reality check:
Getting rich quickly in crypto is extremely rare and subject to survivor bias. You only see those who made tens of millions, while many others using the same methods lose everything. Most who get rich through leverage end up paying it back to the market.
This information is for market observation only and does not constitute trading advice. 81% vs 25%: On the same night of earnings reports, the casino set wildly different odds for Microsoft and Google.
Tonight after the US market close, Microsoft and Google will report earnings on the same night, with Amazon following tomorrow night.
These three companies hold nearly $1.7 trillion in signed but undelivered orders, yet plan to burn up to $600 billion this year building AI.
Cloud growth expectations are each more aggressive than the last: Google Cloud +95.1%, Azure +47.7%, AWS +38.2%.
But cash flow tells a different story: Microsoft expects to still have over $8 billion in free cash flow this quarter, while Google and Amazon are expected to burn cash.
Last week Meta delivered better-than-expected results but still fell 7%; now it depends on whether the cloud business can justify the cash burn.
My view: The casino’s lack of confidence in Google isn’t a bearish bet on Google itself, but reflects expectations so low that even beating them is tough. Tonight’s real test isn’t EPS, but whether free cash flow can provide a floor. Failure points: Microsoft Azure growth below 45%, or Google Cloud growth under 90%, or all three raising capital expenditure guidance again.
Who are you betting on tonight: Microsoft holding steady at an 81% win rate, or Google making a comeback in the 25% long shot?
$GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN
#Google #EarningsReport Negative news can't shake it, is Bitcoin gearing up for a big move?🚀
1. Trading crypto is increasingly like guessing Trump's "next move"♟️; one sentence from him can stir oil prices, US stocks, and the crypto market.
2. Over the weekend, US oil $CL surged to 105, clearly hitting Trump's tolerance line. He immediately said he wouldn't strike Iran today, causing oil prices to drop 5%, and both crypto and US stocks finally caught a breather📉➡️📈.
3. What about $BTC going forward? Judging by this move, Trump is not ignoring the market; if it falls hard, he'll ease up. Downside risk is relatively limited, recent pullbacks are significant, so consider buying the dip; those who have bottomed out should be patient⏳.
4. Recent negative news clusters: US-Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen... but Bitcoin only dropped about 2% from 82,000 to 80,000, showing more resilience than US stocks, which itself is a bullish signal💪.
5. The current feeling is: negative news can't really shake it, after the drop it can still bounce back; if positive news comes later, the upside potential is huge. Besides easing geopolitical tensions, inflation data might also bring some warmth. Be patient, watch the strong support at 78,200; act if it hits, otherwise wait🎯.
6. Over the weekend I mentioned, oil prices are in a five-wave rise, with the fifth wave nearing the top⛽️. If oil prices continue to fall, risk appetite may recover, making the crypto rebound window worth watching👀.#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $SOXL This position has been held for so long, and finally, I see a return. Next, let's see if it can rebound to around POC 102 as the next take-profit target.
The biggest test coming up is the Federal Reserve decision early Thursday morning this week.
Since a rate hike in October is now a high-probability event, what I hope most is that Powell's speech won't be too hawkish.
Although considering the current US inflation, economy, and employment environment, I judge that he will most likely lean hawkish, but according to his usual style, it should only be mildly hawkish, not enough to shock the market too much.
Moreover, if tech giants like Google and Amazon really deliver good earnings reports as expected, the bulls might still celebrate for a few more days, and everyone can have a happy weekend together.
Of course, these days every hurdle is tough, especially good earnings reports don't necessarily mean the stock price will rise.
Every hurdle is hard, but every hurdle must be overcome. Let's wait and see.FOMC countdown is on; the market is not really trading on "whether to raise rates or not," but on how Powell manages December expectations. The 90% probability of holding steady has long been priced in, so the decision itself is unlikely to be bullish; the real variable lies in the wording of the press conference. Currently, CME shows a 69% chance of a rate hike in December. As long as Powell hints that "action in December is not ruled out," risk assets will be repriced, and BTC is very likely to drop another level.
What’s more troublesome is that the macro backdrop does not support a dovish shift: Brent crude remains above 110, the 10-year US Treasury yield stays above 5%, and inflationary pressures have not materially eased. This means Powell lacks reasons to soften his stance. The most likely scenario is "no rate hike but hawkish tone"—after the decision, BTC will first face selling pressure and drop, then rebound as expectations are digested. Don’t bet on direction before the meeting; wait for the speech to land before making moves. Reduce positions to the minimum before Wednesday—not because of bearishness, but to avoid exposure to uncertainty. Bitcoin near 80,000, and some are already calling for a reversal. My view is: don't rush, if it can't take off at this position, let's start with the good news, there are many catalysts this week.
Wednesday: SK Hynix earnings report
Wednesday afternoon Eastern Time: Federal Reserve meeting, the market's probability of no move exceeds 90%
Friday early morning: SanDisk earnings report. If the market understands the AI spending, tech stocks will rally, and the crypto market can easily benefit.
But the bad news: funding rates remain high, bulls haven't been cleaned out, so the rebound space is limited.
This is the core contradiction now.
If a real reversal is to happen, I'm waiting for this signal: another drop to the previous low near 79,200, a volume break down, then a volume recovery. Only after this step is completed does it count.
Before that, it's just bottom consolidation at a low level. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Tom, who is shouting about the bull market, is quite honest with his actions
On Monday, Tom was still loudly proclaiming "the bull market has already started," but BitMine's moves last week were somewhat intriguing: they only bought 10,452 ETH, about $24.5 million, at an average price of $2,344; meanwhile, they spent about $46 million buying back their own stock. The money spent on buying coins is not even half of what was spent on stock buybacks.
What’s even more subtle is that BitMine is only 58,000 ETH away from their goal of holding 5% of the total ETH supply. Just at the doorstep, yet the pace has slowed down. The promised final sprint has turned into protecting the stock price first?
Of course, it can also be understood as giving the E-guards some psychological preparation time—another 5 weeks, is that enough? 🤪
Slogans are slogans, but the ledger is the ledger. No matter how loudly the bull market is shouted, where the real money is placed shows the true attitude.$AVGO rose 4% today, but what I'm really watching is the phrase "residual value support" in the press release.
Four major banks pooled $63 billion to buy Broadcom's chips and lease them to Anthropic.
Broadcom sells the chips and also provides a guarantee for the client, covering up to $43 billion.
Anthropic just filed for an IPO, so everything is smooth sailing for now.
But if one day they can't pay the rent, how much will these chips be worth when returned? The shortfall would be Broadcom's responsibility.
I really have no idea how much AI chips will be worth in a few years.
I'm not chasing it; I'll wait for the next earnings report to see how this guarantee is accounted for.
Do you think this is Broadcom's smart move to lock in a major client, or have they planted a ticking time bomb for themselves?
$AVGO $NVDA
#Anthropic正式申请IPO，或创上市估值纪录 Seeing this construction plan, my first reaction wasn’t to cheer, but to tighten the safety helmet strap one notch. Half a year revenue of 16.3 billion, a 14-fold year-on-year increase — this building is rising fast enough, but what I want to see is the foundation. A net loss of 80.7 billion, of which 72.4 billion is non-cash valuation adjustment; the operating loss is actually only 693 million. This is like having design change disturbances mixed into foundation settlement accounting; what really needs monitoring is whether the structure itself has cracks.
But look at the long-term computing power commitment: 750 billion. What concept is this? This is the steel reinforcement ratio of the load-bearing wall, not just casually welding a steel frame shed. No matter how fast the revenue growth is, you have to first pour concrete and wait for the curing period before you can start erecting the formwork. The market is bidding 1.5 to 2 trillion in floor price for this land, with SpaceX’s 1.77 trillion record as a reference axis — but what super high-rises fear most isn’t wind load, it’s core tube displacement.
I’ve been doing plans for twenty years and have seen too many projects with stunning renderings but terrible construction drawings. The 16.3 billion revenue is like scaffolding built beautifully; the 693 million operating loss is a normal construction error; but the 750 billion computing power commitment is the embedded parts buried in the floor slab. If the bearing capacity is miscalculated, the higher you build, the worse the shear wall cracks get. The 72.4 billion non-cash valuation adjustment is basically drawing change approvals — it doesn’t affect structural safety but makes the final settlement sheet look ugly.
What really determines whether this building can be topped out is whether the cash flow formwork turnover speed can keep up with the excavation depth of the computing power foundation pit. I don’t look at price-to-sales ratio or market dream rate; I only ask one question: can your beam-column joints maintain elastic stage without yielding under the eccentric load of 80 billion loss?
The upper structure of this building has already started pouring. But the anti-floating anchor rods of the foundation slab haven’t been verified yet. #anthropicipofiled- 2k 这个位置，盯盘盯到有点出神 ☕️ 周末薄盘里那根小阴线，你说是试探还是真有人在撤？ 先说我这周的感受：价格没怎么崩，但节奏变"紧"了。BTC 现价 80.2k，7 日 -2.27%，RSI 41 偏弱，卡在 50D EMA 80.7k 下方、200D 76.2k 上方，ATR 约 2k，等于每天 2.5% 的日常波动。区间很清楚：下沿 79.2k，上沿 87.2k。这种结构下，真正难的不是看方向，是仓位怎么活过周三。 事件密度才是这周的主角。周二到周三 FOMC，周四 ECB 叠加美国 Q3 GDP 和 PCE，周五还有 BoJ。四天内三拨宏观催化，任何一次预期摆动都会被放大。ETF 两天净流出 773M（635M + 138M），说明现货端有人在降暴露；但 OKX funding 只有 0.0096%，OI 2.48B 偏中性，杠杆并没有堆到危险位置。这两件事放一起看挺有意思：现货在收，合约没疯，属于防御性减仓，不是恐慌性出逃。 从风险管理角度，我更在意的是"预期被提前计价了多少"。Polymarket 给今天收在 78k 上方 96%，但收上 82k 只有 6%——市场$SNDK SanDisk: The rebound has happened, just one step left to confirm
After SanDisk found effective support at 1200, it indeed rebounded, but tonight's market is not strong: it just touched around 1280 and then fell back to the 1230 level, with short-term resistance continuing to shift down from the Friday 1300–1320 range. Compared horizontally with SK Hynix, Intel, and Micron, the latter two have already approached last week's rebound highs, while SanDisk previously pulled back deeper and recovered more slowly, showing relatively obvious weakness. Fundamentals still suggest "value is more than this," but technicals and macro sentiment have yet to provide synchronized confirmation, forming a typical divergence. The earnings report after the market close on 10.29 will be the moment of truth for bulls and bears; uncertainty is high before the release, and heavy positions in any direction carry strong speculative elements. In terms of operation, if short-term resistance cannot be firmly held, those with heavy positions should reduce exposure first and wait for clear signals from the earnings release and resistance breakout. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 - 这个位置被反复试探，像一根绷着没断的弦 它到底是在蓄力，还是只是还没轮到它倒下？ 看盘到这一段，我最大的感受是：BTC 现在不是没人要，而是没人愿意先动手。上方 805 到 808 压着，下方 800 是防守阵地，价格夹在中间，像在等一个外部信号来打破平衡。这种僵持本身就有信息量，它说明衍生品市场里的杠杆双方都不肯先撤，资金费率大概率还在一个不痛不痒的区间，没有极端多头拥挤，也没有恐慌性空头堆积，所以任何方向的突破都可能是被消息推着走，而不是被仓位结构自然引爆。 真正值得盯的是时间窗口。28 号 FOMC，11 月 3 号中期选举，中间这两周市场的运行速度大概率会提上来。纳指盘前有修复，但我不太期待它在结果落地前走出强趋势，能摸到 29300 到 29500 已经算体面。这个节奏传导到 crypto，意味着 BTC 的震荡区间可能会被压缩，然后在上方 805 到 808 和下方 800 之间选一个方向做插针式突破，而不是温吞地磨过去。历史上这种事件密集期，衍生品端的清算往往先于现货方向出现，所以短线的波动率会比方向感更值钱。 偏多的路径在于：如果纳指在 FOMC 前守住修复，风险偏Brothers, let's talk about some "twisted" data 📊: BTC has fallen below 80,000, and logically ETFs should be redeemed, but last week BTC ETFs actually had a net inflow of $440 million, after a net outflow of $220 million the week before — a complete turnaround in one week. Even stranger, there was a single-day outflow of $169 million on Sunday. What does this mean? Institutions aren't just buying nonstop; they buy in batches after a drop, picking up chips patiently 🧐.
The structure is also very clear: BlackRock IBIT is the only big buyer, while Fidelity and Grayscale are still seeing outflows. Funds are concentrating into top ETFs, and small ETFs are getting quieter. This suggests that long-term institutions might be slowly building positions below 80,000, but that doesn't mean a short-term pump — they're buying for long-term allocation, not to boost retail investors 🚫.
So don't rush to chase just because you see institutional inflows. They can hold for a year; you might not last a week. Understanding the rhythm of funds is more important than blindly following trades 💡.#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
The Strait of Hormuz negotiation easing: the oil price drop is just a fake fall
The news about negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz dragged oil prices down, but I advise you not to rush to short — this round of decline is essentially a temporary retreat of risk premium, not a complete reversal of geopolitical logic.
First, look at the negotiation itself: the five-day mutual concession plan led by Qatar seems like both sides are stepping back, but the core disagreements were not touched at all. Iran insists on "lifting the blockade first before discussing opening," the US refuses to loosen the execution order, and Iran even directly put the nuclear issue on the table as a bargaining chip, clearly negotiating while demanding, far from the stage of actual navigation resumption. What the market is trading now is just the sentiment repair of "the situation not worsening further," not solid proof of the Strait fully reopening.
More importantly, the geopolitical risk trump card has not been withdrawn. The Houthi forces immediately attacked Saudi oil pipelines, indicating that the threat to Middle East energy facilities always exists. As long as negotiations fluctuate or the shipping lane has issues again, oil prices can recover their losses at any time.
In the short term, Brent falling back to $114 and WTI dropping below $102 indeed released some of the previously squeezed bubble, but the underlying logic of tight supply balance remains unchanged. Don't bet on a one-sided decline next; the real turning point requires two signals: one is the actual resumption of navigation in the Strait, and the other is the US substantially loosening restrictions on Iranian energy exports. Before that, every round of oil price decline is just a correction within a high-level oscillation, not a trend reversal.
$CL