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#HOODQ3TradingGrowth Q2 beat $0.62 vs $0.43 + $1.31B but fell -3.6% = 4th drop in row. Aug crypto -38% YoY drag, options +50%, events 15x. Beat needs >$1.5B + margin 42% + Gold growth. Fail <$1.4B = $85 bear.Reviewing the past eight interest rate decision points reveals an intriguing rhythm: the direction often reverses in the week before and the week after the meeting.📉➡️📈 Prices tend to rise before the meeting and fall afterward; sentiment is cooler before the meeting but warms up afterward.🔁 The key is not the news landing itself, but the position adjustments made before the event—many adjustments have already been completed, and prices have priced in in advance.🧠 Rate cuts, holds, rate hikes—these scenarios alternate, yet this "react first, reverse later" mismatch repeatedly appears.👀 Currently, BTC has retraced about 7% before the meeting. The deeper the drop, the more people believe the weakness will continue.🩸 If history repeats itself, there may be another shakeout this week, with a potential rebound next week.🌱 Of course, patterns are just patterns, not guarantees.⚠️The market is showing strong divergence; BTC is oscillating in place, while ZEC is steadily strengthening, approaching 1300. Many wonder if funds are withdrawing from mainstream assets to cluster around privacy-focused projects. Don't rush to conclude a complete style shift. Currently, two major core events are driving expectations: the upcoming FOMC interest rate decision and the countdown to the Zcash NU7 upgrade. The Zcash Foundation has released the new version, with the upgrade expected to start on November 5. This upgrade will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds and introduce a new fee reserve mechanism. The anticipation of this technical upgrade underpins the current strength in ZEC. However, there is a risk that the positive expectations have been priced in early, so it should not be simply regarded as a guarantee of price increase. Looking at the market separately: $BTC is currently holding steady at the 80,000 level but has failed multiple times to sustain above 81,000. Incremental funds remain cautious, still waiting for macro guidance to choose a direction. $ETH is slightly outperforming BTC, testing resistance near 2350. Whether it can break through this level effectively is a signal to judge if its short-term strength can continue. $ZEC #leading the market gains, very close to the 1300 mark, is a species trading ahead of the upgrade expectations. If it fails to hold after a surge, there is a risk of a pullback due to short-term profit-taking. In summary: BTC is waiting for macro direction, ETH is testing upper resistance, and ZEC is moving on expected news. The biggest pitfall in trading is treating anticipated positive news as a guaranteed reason for continued price rises. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Conclusion first: $AKE plunged at 23:10 last night, dropping from 0.0291 to 0.0192 in 50 minutes, a 35% decline, while BTC rose 0.3% in the same period, so it wasn't dragged down by the overall market. 1. Three exchanges hit similar lows: Gate 0.019143, KuCoin 0.019229, OKX 0.01924. This was real selling pressure, not a flash crash. 2. From 23:00 to 24:00, OKX perpetual contracts traded 790 million AKE, about 16.7 million USD, 25 times the volume of the previous hour. 3. Funding rates before the drop were positive (settled +0.0256%/4h on 10-27), meaning longs were paying to hold positions. Liquidations were just the trigger; open interest actually rose from 2.89 million to 3.83 million, +32%, indicating some were adding shorts during the drop. 4. OKX has no AKE spot market, only 20x perpetuals; the top 20 buy orders before the drop totaled only 14,000 USD, so market orders were the ammunition. My judgment: The current price 0.0253 is +32% above the low, indicating short covering rather than a reversal. Market cap is 579 million, FDV 2.489 billion (4.3x), circulating supply only 22.8%, ATH 0.1467, down 82.7%. If you want to participate, only use spot and only risk what you can afford to lose; do not add leverage on perpetuals. Do you think someone is dumping the market, or is it a natural collapse due to thin order books? $AKESK Hynix is currently trading at about 1,254,000 KRW, up 2.53% intraday, with intraday volatility ranging from 1,171,000 to 1,263,000 KRW, still highly volatile. It has retraced about 56% from the June high, as market concerns over the high financing costs of AI infrastructure outweigh optimism about demand surges. Technically, it is oversold and rebounding but has not confirmed a reversal. After completing a 40 trillion KRW buyback, the support buying disappeared, leveraged ETFs are withdrawing from the market, and short-selling products have dropped as much as 42%. Broker target prices vary widely: Nomura gives 4.7 million KRW, Citi 3 million KRW, RBC 200 USD ADR, all significantly above the current price. All news is focused on the October 28 earnings report. The market expects Q3 revenue of about 98 trillion KRW and operating profit of about 77 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge that has already been priced in. The real variable is shareholder returns: the company is considering an additional 50 to 60 trillion KRW in returns, and there are reports of a special dividend possibly reaching 16 trillion KRW, but the company clearly states no final decision has been made. There are signs that orders for HBM4 back-end equipment may be delayed until next year; Samsung's HBM market share has risen from 21% to 33%, narrowing the gap. Whether the earnings report can provide an above-expectation return plan and visibility on HBM4 is more worth watching than any single indicator.$BTC fell from a high of about $84,000 this week to the low of $79,250 on October 24, then rebounded somewhat. Overall, it showed a pattern of rising first, then falling, and finally stabilizing. On the macro level, with the Federal Reserve's October 28 meeting approaching, market sentiment is cautious. 1️⃣ Long-Short Ratio The account long-short ratio is about 2.15–2.25 (long positions account for about 68%–69%). Top traders' positions also lean toward longs. Overall, both retail and institutional accounts are dominated by longs but have not reached extreme crowding levels. 2️⃣ Liquidation Data In the past 7 days, $BTC-related liquidations amounted to about $400 million, with long liquidations accounting for about 74%–76% (approximately $300 million longs vs. about $100 million shorts). A significant long liquidation wave occurred midweek (especially October 22–24), coinciding with the price breaking below $80,000 and hitting the $79,250 low. 3️⃣ CME Position Report Large speculators hold a net long of 2,418 contracts (a weekly decrease of 116 contracts). Leveraged funds hold a net short of about 4,942 contracts (short positions have decreased). Asset managers hold a net long of about 3,000 contracts. Overall, institutional positions are mixed: speculative funds remain net long, but leveraged funds maintain net shorts. 4️⃣ Summary This week, the $BTC futures market showed characteristics of "price correction but relatively sticky open interest, continuous positive funding rates, long dominance but obvious mid-term liquidations." After testing the $79,000–$80,000 support zone, the price rebounded, and leverage did not experience deep clearing. $MON current price is 0.02157. I lean bearish, but the real pressure won't come down until after November 17. There are 28 days left until the cliff unlock, and the market is very quiet: contract open interest is only 20 million USD, with just 4 long positions closed in a day, and almost zero trading volume—no one is rushing to exit early. We've backtested unlocks of similar scale; relative weakness against the broader market tends to concentrate in the last seven days before the unlock, with about three-quarters of events closing negative. Judging $MON's rise or fall over these three weeks is not very meaningful. The chart shows higher highs and many candlesticks are bullish, which is a slight push under low liquidity; the unlock is still far away, so the technical pattern temporarily holds. In the last week, holders reducing positions and hedging demand will outweigh this structure. Starting November 17, watch two things: whether open interest significantly expands, and whether $MON starts to weaken relative to the broader market. If that week it holds above 0.0222 and outperforms the market, the bearish view is invalidated. Backtests show no stable direction after the unlock day, so I won't bet on it.Here are 5 professionally logical and self-consistent versions for you to post directly: *Version 1 - Original Professional Version* > I hold a long position in SK Hynix, but I chose No for "Will the earnings report exceed expectations?" These two things are not contradictory. > The long position bets on the memory cycle, while the prediction bets on whether this quarter's report can surpass consensus expectations. > Why hold a long position? AI servers' demand for HBM and high-end DRAM is still rising. SK Hynix ranks first in HBM, and the stock price follows the logic of "the boom is not over yet." As long as HBM volume expands and DRAM price increases are not falsified, the trend continues. > Why choose No? Last quarter did not exceed expectations, and this quarter's HBM volume expansion and price increases have already been priced in. Expectations are set too high. The performance can be good, but exceeding expectations is difficult. > The key points to watch in this earnings report are: HBM shipments and prices, DRAM contract prices, and management's guidance for the next quarter. *Version 2 - Minimalist Catchphrase Version* > Holding a long position in SK Hynix, but I choose No for earnings beating expectations, no contradiction. > Long bets on the cycle; No bets on expectations being too high. > Bull logic: AI drives HBM + DRAM, SK Hynix leads, the boom cycle is not over. > No logic: last quarter didn’t beat expectations, this quarter’s positives are priced in, the bar is too high, looks good but hard to beat expectations. > Three highlights: HBM volume and price, DRAM contract price, next quarter guidance. *Version 3 - Trading Perspective Version* > Position: Long SK Hynix, bullish on the memory cycle. > Prediction: For this quarter’s earnings report, I chooseMainstream coins consolidating sideways, ZEC governance, Udesk security alert, NIP hashrate expansion update Market Overview - BTC: fluctuating in the range of about 80,200–80,600U, intraday volatility narrowing, short-term bulls and bears still tugging above $80,000. - ETH: trading around 2,310–2,360U, slightly weakening intraday with limited amplitude, short-term still lacking a clear breakout direction. The above is for market reference; real-time prices are subject to exchange order books. Industry News - ZEC Governance Adjustment Proposal: Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe submitted a draft suggesting to stop automatically allocating 8% of newly issued ZEC to the community funding program ZCG, and instead direct it to the Network Sustainable Mechanism (NSM); ZCG currently holds about $125 million in reserves and can continue to disburse already committed funding. - Udesk Customer Service System Security Alert: SlowMist discovered malicious code injected into Udesk customer service scripts, potentially stealing login credentials, tampering with BTC/ETH recharge addresses, and hijacking the clipboard. Addresses should be double-checked through independent channels before transfers. - NIP Group Increasing Hashrate: This entity continues to acquire mining machines, has deployed hashrate up to 9.66 EH/s, with a full production target of about 11.3 EH/s, expecting a monthly output of approximately 140–150 BTC; the company also retains room to expand into AI computing power support. Both belong to strong sectors, but the trading logic of $ZEC and $VVV is different. $ZEC|Shorts are crowded, watch for a breakout BTC fell below 80,000, but ZEC held around 1240, rising about 2% against the trend in 24 hours. Open interest continues to increase, the retail long-short ratio dropped to 0.85, and short pressure is accumulating. The NU7 upgrade expectation provides a catalyst, but there is a sell wall near 1270 suppressing it; whether it can break through depends on volume. Short squeeze expectations do not guarantee a rise; chasing highs still requires caution. $VVV|Unlocking is near, rebound needs confirmation VVV needs to firmly hold above around $27 to have a better chance to confirm a rebound. The $22–23 area is a key observation zone; supply pressure from unlocking should not be ignored. One is waiting for shorts to cover, the other is testing unlocking pressure. Trading rhythms differ, so position management cannot be copied. This week's FOMC rate decision is approaching, macro volatility may increase; first watch for signals, then decide direction. #ZEC #VVV #BTC #CryptoMarket #OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek On-chain data for $DOGE shows that since mid-October, whales have cumulatively increased their holdings by about 600 million DOGE around the 0.08 level, with cost zones concentrated in this area. Technically, 0.0736 is a short-term key support; if it holds, a rebound and consolidation may occur. However, if the daily close effectively breaks below this level, the next support will be lower. The real test on the upside is at 0.087, which has shifted from support to resistance. Over the past week, bulls and bears have repeatedly contested this level, and without volume support, it will be difficult to reclaim. Regarding suppressive factors, the overall liquidity in the Meme sector continues to decline, with its market cap proportion of the total altcoin market falling to a historic low. Capital is more inclined toward sectors with genuine narratives. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve is very likely to keep interest rates unchanged this time, but the probability of a rate hike in December has risen above 68%. The market is trading on a "hawkish pause," not a shift to easing. $BTC is repeatedly tugging at the 80,000 level; with Bitcoin unstable, DOGE will find it hard to strengthen independently. Objective conclusion: This is currently a left-side game, not a right-side confirmation. If you want to participate, wait for at least one of three signals: DOGE daily closes back above and holds 0.08, BTC holds 80,000 without making new lows, or there is volume-supported buying around 0.0736. If none of these occur, watching more and acting less is more cost-effective than rushing to bottom-fish. Position control is more important than directional judgment.$CORE The four phenomena you observed point to a very dangerous critical point currently facing the CORE ecosystem. Among them, the decline in the number of Bitcoins and the sharp decrease in nodes are driven by two completely different logics operating simultaneously. 🔍 Why are there only 1184 Bitcoins left? Misunderstandings and truths about cross-chain bridges First, a key technical concept needs to be clarified, which is also the most common confusion in the community: · CLTV self-custody staking: This is the "Bitcoin staking" method primarily promoted by CORE. Your BTC is locked on the Bitcoin mainnet through a time lock and does not go through a cross-chain bridge. Upon expiration, theoretically, it can be unlocked directly on the Bitcoin network without project approval. · coreBTC wrapped token: This is a wrapped asset that maps BTC 1:1 onto the CORE chain via a cross-chain bridge. The portion of coreBTC that is "stuck" and cannot be redeemed depends on the operation of the cross-chain bridge. Therefore, the reduction in the amount of staked native BTC is likely due to some users whose CLTV time locks have expired and who have normally retrieved their assets through the Bitcoin network. This itself does not directly prove that the cross-chain bridge has been restored. The core issue is that the redemption channel for coreBTC remains blocked. In early 2026, users still reported redemption failures on the official forum, with only burn records on the CORE chain provided and no transfer IDs on the Bitcoin mainnet as proof of receipt. 🏛️ Nodes sharply reduced to 13: Network security has reached a critical point The 13 active nodes you see represent an extremely dangerous signalWhat is truly easy to overlook is not the $1.1 billion options expiration, but that everyone automatically equates "expiration" with "amplified volatility." Is this week's risk really just about a cluster of events? Watching BTC hover around 80,000 these past few days feels more like a test of leverage patience. It barely bounced up to 84,600 before sliding back to the starting point; this kind of movement itself is eroding the confidence of bulls. On Friday, about $11 billion nominal value of Bitcoin options expire, combined with the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday and US GDP and PCE data on Thursday, the calendar is indeed packed, but what the market is really trading is whether to deleverage before the events. The bullish path isn't complicated: holding 80,000, especially reclaiming 82,000, indicates selling pressure is absorbed, and there’s a short-term chance to test 84,000 again. Squeezing shorts depends on spot not dragging behind. But the fragile point is clear: if 80,000 is lost again, 76,000 becomes the next level to test. Market makers adjusting positions and funding rate swings around options expiration can easily amplify such a breakdown into an emotional dip. My own understanding is that this week the focus shouldn't just be on news headlines but on the reaction of open interest and funding rates: if price moves sideways but leverage drops first, that’s healthy; if after news hits funding rates heat up quickly but price doesn’t follow, that’s a divergence to watch out for. The derivatives structure now feels like a tightly stretched string; before direction is chosen, volatility itself is a cost. So this week I’m especially controlling contract leverage, preferring to wait for 82,000 to hold Do you really understand the BNB Standard bell-ringing? An in-depth analysis of BNC BNB Standard, holding over 510,000 binancecoin:native ( $BNC ), rang the bell at Nasdaq on October 26. This company can be understood as the Strategy ( $MSTR ) in the BNB treasury field, raising funds through a listed company to buy and hold BNB, allowing US stock investors to participate in BNB price changes through stocks. BNC was formerly called CEA Industries, originally engaged in environmental control equipment and e-cigarette retail. After completing a $500 million financing led by YZi Labs in August 2025, it began executing the BNB treasury strategy, and the stock code was changed to BNC. In September this year, it was officially renamed BNB Standard, so this bell-ringing celebrates the renaming and the appointment of a new CEO, not a re-IPO. In terms of asset scale, according to disclosures at the end of July, the company held 515,544 BNB, accounting for about 92.4% of total assets at that time (also holding a small amount of bitcoin:native and USDT). Unlike other treasury companies, BNC, due to holding a large amount of BNB, can earn income from the Binance ecosystem, such as airdrops from @binance's Launchpool and HODLer Airdrop, which become BNC's revenue. The most recent disclosed quarter confirmed $284,000 in airdrop income and $1.1 million in management fees. (The management fee issue will be discussed later.) Looking at historical data, the previous fiscal year disclosed a total airdrop income of about $7.9 million, part of which was converted into 4,932 BNB, valued at about $5.8 million at the time of conversion. Some airdrop income was not clearly stated whether it was converted. From my personal perspective, I suggest converting all airdrops into USD, and after deducting management fees, the remainder can be converted into BNB. Because the previous fiscal year also had $5 million in management fees (about $4.6 million paid, about $400,000 unpaid as of the annual report settlement date). Here is some gossip: BNC's external asset manager, 10X Capital Partners LLC, was hired when BNC launched the BNB treasury strategy in 2025 to manage BNB treasury assets. David Namdar, the initial CEO of BNC, is a senior partner at 10X, and another 10X founder, Hans Thomas, also served as a BNC director. According to the asset management agreement signed by both parties, 10X provides management and related services for BNC's digital asset treasury, and BNC pays management fees based on the value of assets under the treasury strategy. The quarterly disclosed fee rate is annualized 1.4%. At project launch, YZi and 10X also signed a strategic service agreement, where YZi provides strategic consulting to 10X and receives a portion of 10X's management fees according to the agreement. Later, disputes arose; YZi stated it terminated this agreement in December 2025, and BNC stated in March 2026 that 10X no longer shares fees with YZi under this agreement. Now BNC believes the 10X fee rate, 20-year term, and early termination clauses are unfavorable to shareholders and has sued to invalidate the agreement. According to the latest quarterly disclosure, BNC has not terminated the agreement, suspended payment of invoiced management fees after April 10, 2026, but continues to accrue them. Back to the main topic, although the management fee issue is not fully resolved, compared to other treasury listed companies, BNC already has a very clear profit plan, supported not only by the Binance ecosystem but also planning to operate BNB Chain validator nodes, which is also a good source of income. Of course, there are some points to note. According to the company's dashboard quote on October 26, BNC's mNAV is about 0.74, a discount of about 26% relative to adjusted net asset value per share. This means the market currently values the company below its disclosed adjusted net asset value. In plain terms, based on the company's disclosed holdings at the end of July and the price on the afternoon of October 26 Eastern Time, the value of BNB held by BNC is about $383 million, while the market capitalization of BNC based on issued common shares is about $260 million. From these two figures alone, the value of BNB held by the company exceeds the stock market value. That is to say, assuming BNB price, company assets and liabilities, and diluted shares remain unchanged in the future, and the market is willing to reprice BNC from 0.74 times mNAV to 1 time, the stock price has about 35% upside potential. PS: Does anyone know why @cz_binance went to ring the bell? According to the SEC ownership filing submitted on September 21, 2026, YZi Labs holds 9,749,745 shares of BNC, about 20% of the then common shares. CZ is the sole director of the filing entity YZi Labs Management Ltd. Reposted from PhyrexA signal that didn't follow the system later rose, but that doesn't mean you should chase it next time. My personal market observation is: don't reverse-engineer rules based on outcomes, especially in narrow-range oscillations, where occasional realized rebounds most easily tempt people to relax their criteria. Rego mentioned that even though some short-term triggers have moved upward, they haven't met the coordination required by his system, so he still chooses to reduce risk and temporarily stay out. His explanation of indicator arrangements and false signals belongs to the original judgment; I won't write it off as the market having proven no strength, nor will I blindly adopt unverified success probabilities. Kraken's public quote is about $80,462, with a 24-hour high near $80,566. I will wait for the upper boundary to be broken, then for the close to hold and a pullback to be supported before adjusting my view of not chasing the rise; if it spikes up then falls back into the original range and fails to close above, the breakout hypothesis is invalid. If it falls below $80,000 again, I will first withdraw and revise expectations. My comprehensive judgment is that good rules can miss market moves, and bad positions can occasionally make money; the two should not be confused. Project catalysts have not yet completed public verification, so I don't treat scattered profit-taking updates as new opportunities. When facing missed rebounds, do you first check if the rules are still valid or wait for the next occurrence under the same conditions? This is only a personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.This week, pay close attention to the 11 billion BTC options settlement, which might have a bigger impact than the FOMC. This options contract expires on Friday. The Fed meeting on the 29th is unlikely to change interest rates; it depends on whether the speech leans hawkish and the PCE inflation data. Lower inflation is favorable for ZEC. These are all just speculative expectations, but the options settlement will have a real impact on the market. There are many positions stacked above 83,000. When the price reaches this area, market makers hedging will cause big swings in the market. Once it leaves this range, the market tends to decline. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #谷歌云业务增长82%,AI投入回报如何? Google Cloud Q2 revenue reached $24.8 billion, up 82% year-over-year, with operating margin rising from 20.7% to 35.6%, indicating improved efficiency in AI investment returns. But the cost is also evident: capital expenditures doubled year-over-year to $44.9 billion, free cash flow turned negative for the first time at -$5.9 billion, and the full-year capex guidance was raised to $195–205 billion. Whether returns can be sustained depends on two anchors: a backlog of $514 billion and a quarter-on-quarter new addition of $52 billion, with an expected conversion rate slightly above 50% over the next 24 months; TPU delivers about 50% better performance per dollar than B200 under low concurrency inference, serving as a structural source of margin improvement. A risk point is customer concentration—UBS estimates that by 2027, OpenAI and Anthropic may contribute about 48% of Google Cloud's revenue, and neither company is currently profitable. #SK海力士Q3财报在即,HBM4能否提振盈利? - Short term (Q3): HBM4 is not a performance savior; this quarter's profits rely more on price increases of HBM3E+ and regular DRAM; HBM4's contribution is limited. - Mid to long term (Q4→2027): HBM4 is the core profit engine. If customers' AI chips are successfully launched and capacity ramps up smoothly, the high-margin HBM4 will continuously optimize the product structure and keep driving profit growth. - Risk points: Slowdown in AI customers' capital expenditure, competitive pricing, and yield ramp-up below expectations may all delay the realization of HBM profits.$BTC The lowest closing price in 20 trading days, but RSI has risen from 36 back to 42. ▪️ 10/26 closed at 80,150.56, down 3.53 USD from the previous day ▪️ 20-day closing percentile 0%, lowest within the window ▪️ RSI 42.29, previous day 36.02, up 6.27 points in two days ▪️ Consecutive decline for 5 trading days, -2.18% in 7 days, -5.07% in 30 days ▪️ 1.17% above the 30-day low, 8.82% below the high, ratio of 7.5 times ▪️ 30-day range width 10.10%, 20-day moving average 2.34% above ▪️ 200-day moving average 73,029.59 is 9.75% below Indicator recovery and price recovery are two different things. RSI rising from 36.02 to 42.29 while the closing price hits the lowest in 20 trading days — a flattening slope causes RSI to rebound without the price actually increasing. Position is at the bottom of the range: 1.17% from the lower boundary, 8.82% from the upper boundary. The 90-day position is 71.16%, a large gap between the two windows. #BTC现货ETF资金反复,市场买盘能否企稳? $DOGE bulls are still holding on, but the market is clearly leaning bearish. In the past 24 hours, long positions liquidated $290,000, while short positions only $50,000. The price dropped just 0.56%, yet longs continue to be liquidated, indicating leveraged positions are quite fragile. Currently, DOGE is at 0.07666, close to the intraday low of 0.07656. Trading volume is light, moving averages are bearish, and if the previous low breaks, further downside cannot be ruled out. To reverse the situation, it needs to at least reclaim 0.07822 and observe if liquidation direction changes. Until then, I lean towards cautious bearishness and am not rushing to bottom-fish. $DOGE #DOGE #Crypto #OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek #Ripple获美国国家信托银行最终批准 $XRP The approved license is a trust charter, without deposit-taking or lending. ▪️ Conditional approval was given on 12/12 last year, today is the final approval ▪️ The entity is Ripple National Trust Bank, handling custody, payments, and RLUSD ▪️ The license allows application for a Federal Reserve master account, directly connecting to Fedwire clearing ▪️ RLUSD is $2.43 billion, ranked 9th among stablecoins ▪️ USDT plus USDC account for 84.7%, totaling $256 billion ▪️ The queue already includes Anchorage, Circle, BitGo, Paxos ▪️ Circle’s stock price rose over 13% on the day of final approval on 7/10 What changed is the regulatory level, not the business scope. Under the state trust license, RLUSD is a state-issued coin; under the federal trust bank, it is issued by a federal regulatory agency. What was unlocked is the clearing channel: the master account can directly access the Federal Reserve payment system, no longer routing through correspondent banks. This value is not reflected in RLUSD’s current $2.43 billion. XRP did not rise that day — this license does not require buying XRP.#富兰克林邓普顿推出美股股息买BTC新型ETF Dividends are not paid in cash; on the next trading day after the ex-dividend date, Bitcoin is directly purchased at the open. ▪️ FBEQ tracks the broad market with a 0.09% fee, FIBT tracks growth with a 0.19% fee, both listed on Nasdaq ▪️ Form 8-A filed on 10/22, prospectus effective 10/27 ▪️ Initially 95% US stocks and 5% Bitcoin, index compiled by VettaFi ▪️ Does not hold spot Bitcoin, buys ETPs (including its own EZBC), futures, and options ▪️ Forced sell if quarter-end weight exceeds 5%, cut back to 4.5% ▪️ Hard cap at 20% during the period, must close positions within two business days, also cut back to 4.5% 5% is the upper limit, not the allocation. What’s transformed is the DRIP slot: instead of traditional dividend reinvestment buying the stock itself, here it buys Bitcoin, reducing friction to zero—this is the term Nate Geraci uses. Two forced liquidation lines turn it into a pipeline with a buyback valve. If Bitcoin outperforms US stocks, it will be cut at quarter-end; reaching a 20% weight requires about a 4.75x increase, and must be closed back to 4.5% within two days. Dividend yield is not high, short-term buying is limited, the value lies in the channel itself.#HOODQ3TradingGrowth I'm more focused on net deposits and options activity than EPS itself. Crypto volumes in Q3 were mixed, but equity trading held up.$SNDK this 75x long position is up +177.9%, the 1277.4 base position is still held. On the 4-hour chart, after dropping to 1205, the bottom is slowly rising, MA5 just crossed above MA10, MACD green bars are emerging, and a daily-level rebound signal has appeared. I bought long near 1277. The 15-minute chart shows a pull-up from 1254, with moving averages in a bullish alignment, but KDJ's J value has reached 99.1, RSI is severely overbought, so a short-term pullback is needed. Meanwhile, I made several grid trades for T, but the base position remains untouched. Currently stuck at the 1310-1314 4-hour resistance zone, volume is starting to shrink. If it can't break through, it will likely pull back to 1300 or even 1284. 75x leverage is not a joke; I only hold when profits are substantial. If 1314 can't be surpassed, I'll reduce part of the position first and watch for support at 1280 on the pullback. As long as the trend isn't broken, hold tight, but don't give back profits. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Two registration documents have taken effect, yet the trading date hangs in limbo—in our field, this is called a numbered tropical depression with its path forecast still undecided. Franklin Templeton puts FBEQ and FIBT on the table: 95% equity assets as the base, 5% Bitcoin exposure through the ETP channel, then uses stock dividends as a warm, moist airflow continuously supplying moisture into the digital asset cloud. This is not the kind of structure where a spot Bitcoin ETF directly hits the eye of the storm. It’s more like a sustained frontal precipitation—not relying on a single outbreak, but a stable upward airflow formed by dividend reinvestment. The 95-to-5 ratio forms a thick inversion layer, locking the position on the equity side and leaving only a narrow slit for Bitcoin. Don’t underestimate this slit; the energy of weather systems often doesn’t release from the main convective area but squeezes out from the shear line at the edges. The whole atmosphere looks calm, but the lifting condensation level is quietly dropping. FBEQ presses on large-cap blue chips, FIBT targets innovative companies—two air masses with very different natures: the former is a dry, cold high-pressure ridge, stable, with little disturbance and small diurnal variation; the latter is a warm, moist unstable stratification with strong vertical wind shear, ready to trigger convection anytime. But their outflow is the same—dividends converted to Bitcoin. Thus, the main control variable on the demand side shifts from "sentiment temperature" to "dividend payout rhythm," stretching the forecast time scale from intraday thunderstorm prediction to seasonal circulation analysis. Short-term traders will find this uncomfortable because observable radar echoes decrease, and reliable numerical models extend longer. What really needs monitoring is sustainability. How much incremental buying power can dividend reinvestment generate annually? Is this "precipitation amount" or "moisture cycling"? If the latter, it just reroutes rain originally meant to fall back into equity accounts into the Bitcoin basin—the total volume remains unchanged, but the precipitation area shifts several degrees of latitude and longitude. Ensemble forecasts show huge divergence in such scenarios: the geopotential height difference among members is only a few meters, but the precipitation areas differ drastically. Marginal buying and stock repositioning look almost identical in real-time; only after the precipitation ends and cumulative amounts are reviewed can the truth be distinguished. The linkage with the US stock token $xGOOGL is another layer of observation. Tokenized equity combined with on-chain Bitcoin exposure connects two weather systems originally at different altitude layers. When dividend flow, equity volatility, and on-chain liquidity couple, the probability of localized strong convection rises significantly, visibility drops synchronously, and wind direction shifts from a single "risk appetite" stream to multiple airflows shearing each other. In this situation, the worst mistake is to use observations from a single station to forecast the entire province’s weather. Downstream radar echoes have not appeared yet, but the upstream upper trough is already deepening. Registration taking effect confirms the circulation pattern; the trading date is the specific start time—forecasts without a start time can only be trend outlooks, not real-time warnings. The 5% exposure on paper is small, but it hangs on the dividend mechanism’s lead wire, whose other end connects to a continuous cash flow. In this system, the real danger is not that 5%, but the 95% of positions that think they have nothing to do with the storm. #franklindividendstobtc#SK海力士Q3财报在即,HBM4能否提振盈利? HBM4 is unlikely to significantly boost this quarter's profits directly in Q3, but it will determine the market's expectations for the subsequent profit baseline after the Q3 earnings report; the main profit drivers this quarter remain the general DRAM/NAND with price increases of HBM3E+.Even gold has fallen below 4000! My 100x $ETH long position recovered from a 58% loss, but the more I look, the more anxious I get Family, the most outrageous thing today isn’t the crypto market dragging its feet, but that even gold, the "old king of safe havens," can’t hold up. Spot price directly broke through the $4000 mark, hitting a more than three-month low. It sounds counterintuitive: Middle East geopolitical tensions haven’t eased, oil prices remain high, and inflation pressure hasn’t dissipated. According to the old script, gold should be rising. But it fell instead. The core logic is simple—high interest rates are strangling all non-yielding assets. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, so money sitting idle earns interest with no risk, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold. Even institutions are reducing their long positions and turning to embrace the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. $BTC Looking at gold’s trend, I glance again at my ETH long position and feel uneasy. This 100x position was opened at 2331; a few days ago, the worst unrealized loss hit 58%. Today, thanks to short covering, it recovered to only a 12% unrealized loss. I was somewhat relieved, but seeing gold collapse like this instantly sobered me up. If even the traditional king of safe havens can’t withstand the Fed’s rate hike expectations, how solid can this rebound be for a high-volatility, high-risk asset like ETH? Simply put, it’s a technical rebound after a heavy drop, not real new money entering to bottom-fish. The whole market is waiting for tomorrow’s FOMC decision. Gold has already voted early with its feet, indicating growing confidence in the expectation that "high interest rates will last longer." If even gold can’t escape the pressure of interest rates, it’s hard for the crypto market to remain unaffected. Let’s wait until tomorrow when the direction truly emerges.#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续? • Can the growth continue? Q3 data has given a positive answer, with trading business (stocks/options/crypto/prediction) fully active, combined with net inflow momentum, providing solid support for short-term revenue growth. • Valuation and risks: Despite impressive performance, the stock price already reflects high expectations (up over 270% in 2025). The market worries about the unsustainability of the "everyone speculating" craze, changes in crypto regulation, and high valuation pressure. The future focus is whether new businesses (prediction markets, tokenization, institutional) can scale quickly to smooth out trading cycle fluctuations. In summary, Robinhood is transitioning from a "zero-commission broker" to a "comprehensive financial ecosystem." The Q3 earnings report validated the resilience of the core trading business, while new businesses are becoming a second growth curve. Long-term incremental growth is promising but volatility should be watched.> $ETH | ∼$2,306: Support near $2,300 but no strong rebound yet > Afternoon double dip below $2,300 then recovered — buying below, but rebound hasn't reclaimed upper hourly MA. > Support: $2,297-$2,290, then $2,275 if breaks > Resistance: $2,315-$2,325 first, need $2,335-$2,350 to improve short-term structure > Take: Weak tug-of-war. No accelerated decline before $2,290 break; no strength confirmed before $2,325 reclaim. #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings The longer the calm lasts, the more it makes people afraid to blink. $BTC is hovering around $80,000, with the 3-month implied volatility dropping to the 0.8 percentile of the past three years, and the 30-day volatility only 1.8%—direction undecided, the market is waiting for news to land. On the macro side, easing expectations are fading. September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, the strongest since March 2022; the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.1%. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in October is 71.8%, with rate cut bets below 10%, putting pressure on crypto valuations. At the exchange level, leverage is being squeezed out. On October 24, BTC fell below $79,280, triggering $404 million long liquidations within 4 hours, accounting for 93%; open interest is about $140.1 billion. ETF outflows for the week were $228 million, only 0.2% of the $104.3 billion total assets, more like position adjustments. The calendar is the fuse: Fed decision on October 28, midterm elections on November 3, and a flurry of tech earnings reports. About $8 billion in shorts above and $7.6 billion in longs below derivatives await liquidation; triggering either side could break the low volatility. The current quiet is the market holding its breath, not the endgame. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即,HBM4能否提振盈利? #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案,油价回落 $BTC The entire network is waiting for positive news from the Ethereum testnet. On one side, researchers are wildly tweeting celebrations, while on the other, nearly $90 million is fleeing, and the foundation is even secretly swapping U. They verbally shout about the stars and the sea, but are frantically selling off. The main players are really skilled at this overt distraction. The 2321 price is like stagnant water, tightly suppressed by the moving average overhead. As long as it can't rebound past 2380, it remains a bear market; breaking below 2281 directly targets 2200. In the market, those who listen to stories place buy orders, while those who see the cards eat the meat. $ETH$SOL This round of pullback is quite interesting. The market was hammered hard earlier, but the on-chain fees suddenly surged by 40% in a single day. Those on-chain doggy casinos are greedily taking their cut every day, yet the SOL price has dropped 4% over 7 days. The casino business is scorching hot, but the chips are actually selling cheaper. Fundamentals and price are seriously out of sync; the shorts here are just pretending to be tough, ready to get squeezed at any moment. #SOL $SOL 👇How much can you earn by holding FIL now until 2027? My final judgment I focus more on whether FIL can prove three changes by 2027: a decrease in new supply pressure, growth in paid storage demand, and market funds re-entering the DePIN sector. Among these, the end of token vesting has already provided supply-side improvement, but the demand side still requires real business data for validation. If by the first half of 2027, FIL remains below $1 and paid services have not significantly grown, then the $5 target should be viewed more cautiously. Conversely, if FIL breaks through $2–3, trading volume continues to improve, and network revenue rises simultaneously, then the feasibility of $5 will be significantly higher. Conclusion: $5 can be considered an optimistic target for 2027, $10 is more suitable as an extreme bull market target, and neither should be taken as a guaranteed price. Investment decisions should also consider the risk of falling below the current price or even hitting new lows again. The US-Iran discussion on the Hormuz Strait opening plan caused oil prices to fall, and the risk appetite recovery provided a short-term boost to SPCX, but the four-hour level is still in a downward correction. I judge this rebound to be more sentiment-driven rather than a trend reversal. From the capital perspective, the rate of only 0.0081% indicates that the bulls are not overheated, with a position of 373,000 coin-based contracts not considered crowded; short covering is the main driving force. The market rose 1.1% in 24 hours, with the price at 151.26 close to the intraday high of 151.64, still 5.94% above the four-hour low. The top ten buy orders are 1798 versus 1374 sell orders, a ratio of 1.31, with buy orders dominant but the turnover only 1.022 million, indicating thin volume and questionable momentum for chasing highs. Strategically, a light long position can be tried on a pullback to 149.35, with a stop loss at 147.62 and a target of 153.48; if it directly rises to around 153.2 and stalls, reduce positions, controlling holdings within 20%. In thin volume markets, heavy positions should be avoided. — This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. — $SPCX#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案,油价回落 #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案,油价回落 $SPCX Long and short divergences intensify: ETH weakest in the short term, ZEC shows abnormal capital sentiment The latest 5-minute active trades show that BTC, ETH, and ZEC all have a bearish dominance, but the capital structure is not unified, and market divergences have clearly expanded. 🔻$BTC long-short ratio is 0.769, with large holders leaning towards defense, while retail investors' long-short ratio exceeds 2.3. Despite short-term selling pressure dominance, retail investors are still absorbing long positions; if the rebound lacks volume support, it is prone to forming another bull trap. 🔻$ETH shows the strongest bearish advantage, with a long-short ratio of only 0.6658 and bears accounting for 60.03%. Retail investors' long-short ratio is as high as 3.40, clearly opposite to the large holders' direction. If BTC weakens, ETH may likely lead the decline. 🔻$ZEC presents a different signal: long-short ratio is 0.846, short-term active selling still dominates, but large holders' sentiment is clearly bullish, with significant capital still absorbing. This contrasts with BTC and ETH large holders' defensive stance. Overall, ETH is the weakest in the short term, ZEC has the largest divergence; BTC needs to be cautious of a volume-less rebound. Currently, not all capital is uniformly bearish; rather, large holders and retail investors, as well as different coins, are engaged in intense competition. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 SanDisk (SNDK): Bullish, but wait for a pullback. Fundamentals are solid—FY2026 revenue up 175% year-over-year, gross margin at 84.6%, signed $93.9 billion in long-term locked orders, profitability visibility far exceeds traditional cyclical stocks. However, the stock price has dropped from the June high of $2354 to just over $1300 now, down nearly 25% this month. The market is trading on a "cycle peak," with sentiment killing valuation. The key event is the earnings report on October 29. If the gross margin holds above 83% and guidance does not weaken, the current level has support. Positioning: 1250-1300 is a reasonable entry zone, below 1150 is a golden opportunity. Do not chase highs before the earnings report; wait until after it lands to act. ⚠️ Personal analysis, not investment advice. Storage stocks are volatile, control your position size. Based on October 27, 2026, my judgment is: FIL has a chance to reach $5 in 2027, but it requires a recovery in the crypto market; reaching $10 is also not impossible, but it would need a stronger bull market and improvements in Filecoin's fundamentals to jointly drive it. It is important to emphasize: reaching the target price and stabilizing above the target price by the end of the year are two completely different levels of difficulty. 1. How low is FIL's current valuation? Starting from $0.90, the returns and market capitalization corresponding to different target prices for FIL are as follows. This calculation uses the current approximate circulating supply of 838 million FIL. The circulating supply may further increase in 2027, so the actual required market cap could be higher. Multiples of the target price relative to the current price. Core conclusion: $5 requires FIL to return to a circulating market cap of several billion dollars; $10 requires regaining a larger scale of market capital allocation. This is not unprecedented in crypto market history, but it cannot be judged solely by the historical highest price that it will rise in the future. 2. Scenario probabilities for FIL hitting $5 and $10 in 2027 The following is my subjective scenario estimation based on current market valuation, project progress, and crypto asset cycles, not an objective probability calculated by a statistical model. My price assumptions under different market environments at the end of 2027 are as follows: This table describes the scenario at the end of 2027, while the previous probability description refers to whether the target price was ever reached during 2027. 3. Three key catalysts for FIL's rise 1. Slowing supply growth October 1, 2026 #微软Azure增长43%,AI商业化能否提速? Microsoft after-hours results, will Azure keep pressing the gas pedal? Brothers, Microsoft will release its Q1 earnings after the market closes on the 28th. Current price 532.6, slightly down to around 529 in after-hours trading. Conclusion first: beating expectations is not hard, the hard part is whether the market will buy it. Market expects EPS 4.71, revenue 90.6 billion, Azure growth guidance 44-45%. But Morgan Stanley has already raised the expectation to 47%, meaning 45% is just the passing line. If Azure doesn't reach above 46%, after-hours will most likely show you a bad face. Copilot's 30 million paid seats is the trump card, but capital expenditure exceeded 50 billion in a single quarter, and gross margin is still declining. The speed of AI dividend realization can't keep up with the burn rate, that's the real risk. How are the option traders betting? Bearish, very clear. A few days ago someone dumped $1.56 million selling out-of-the-money 540 Calls, and someone else used $9.63 million in bear call spreads to cap 555-575. The Call/Put volume ratio looks like 1.55, but the big orders are all selling upside space. Translation: institutions think the 535 to 550 range can't be broken through. Implied volatility prices about 5.3% movement, both bulls and bears have chances, but the big money chose to collect rent, not chase gains. My view: Azure above 46, after-hours touches 550; only 44-45, whether 535 holds is debatable.On October 27, the Q3 earnings reports of $SAMSUNG Samsung and $SKHYNIX SK Hynix were released one after another. The combined operating profit of the two is expected to be 184 trillion KRW, double last year's full-year 90.8 trillion. But the stock prices are falling. Samsung has dropped 36% from the June high, SK Hynix down 52%. The P/E ratio has fallen to about 3 times, and the foreign ownership ratio has dropped to the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. Record profits, valuation dropped to financial crisis levels. This is not "poor performance," but "the market does not believe this profit can be sustained." Of the 184 trillion, HBM contributed the majority. Whether HBM4 can take over next year is the anchor for the stock price. 3x PE, 184 trillion profit. The market is pricing in "a 65% profit cut next year," and Goldman Sachs says this pricing "seriously deviates from fundamentals." However, the panda thinks that the market not believing the profit can be sustained does not necessarily mean the market is right. What do you all think? #SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? Can SanDisk's high growth in storage business continue? This directly affects the valuation imagination of SKHYNIX. My judgment is that short-term momentum still exists, but it has entered a sensitive window that needs verification. The current quote is 1037.2, up 4.8% in 24 hours, with bulls testing the overhead selling pressure. However, the top 10 order book shows 134 buy orders versus 356 sell orders, with a buy-sell strength ratio of only 0.38, clearly favoring sellers; funding rate is zero, open interest is 61,000, indicating a neutral to cautious leverage sentiment. The 1-hour distance from the high is only -0.09% but distance from the low is 10.69%, and the 4-hour chart is still in a downtrend structure with a distance from the high of -16.26%, a typical range upper edge turning point. Strategically, one can lightly go long at 1031.6 with a stop loss at 1018.3 and a target of 1052.7, adding positions after breaking 1045.2; if it rallies then falls below 1024.5, reverse to short with a stop loss at 1038.9 and a target of 1006.4. Single position size should not exceed 20%, strictly observe stop loss. — This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. — $SKHYNIX#Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? #Can SanDisk's high growth in storage business continue? $SKHYNIX #三星Q3利润预增近8倍,完整财报即将揭晓 "Samsung's Profit Surges Nearly 8 Times in Q3, Full Financial Report Coming Soon" Samsung just released preliminary Q3 results, operating profit about 9.1 trillion KRW, revenue 79 trillion KRW. Although the figures surged nearly 8 times compared to the low base of the same period last year, institutions originally expected over 10 trillion KRW, so the numbers did not meet buyers' expectations. Chip business head Jeon Young-hyun issued a rare public apology; the key issue was the delayed supply of high-bandwidth memory HBM3E to NVIDIA, missing the golden period of the computing power race. Samsung will release the full financial report on October 31, and the real focus will be whether it can be validated by major companies afterward. $三星Q3利润预增近8倍#Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续? …Excellent article, currently clearly showing characteristics of the early bull market! Currently, the way $BTC liquidity is triggered is obviously the opposite of the previous bearish trend consolidation phase. In the bearish trend consolidation phase, the highs are repeatedly tested but the trend does not continue, sweeping liquidity at previous highs. In the bullish trend consolidation phase, the lows are repeatedly tested but the trend does not continue, sweeping liquidity at previous lows. Many people are bearish and shorting at this BTC position, but the price is only slowly declining, dropping sluggishly. Every time it approaches around 80,000 and looks like it will break down, it pulls back again, indicating that the main force is accumulating at this position using limit orders.There are finally some signs of recovery $ETH is finally somewhat profitable But $BTC is still at a loss It's time to rise, brother Stop harvesting back and forth $DOOD's funding rate is really abnormal The citrus manipulator is about to make a move Don't be fooled #SK海力士Q3财报在即,HBM4能否提振盈利? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即,HBM4能否提振盈利? 1. HBM is the profit foundation, with long-term contract volume locked in HBM4 continues to ramp up, and long-term agreements (LTA) with major clients like NVIDIA serve as a core safety net. These contracts include price adjustment mechanisms to hedge spot market fluctuations. Institutions expect the proportion of high value-added products to continue rising; regular DRAM contracts and spot prices are rising simultaneously, doubly driving up ASP. The Q3 forecast has already been revised upward, and strong profitability is expected to continue in Q4, with operating profit margins maintained at an extremely high level above 70%. SOL|About 100.81: Following the rebound, still not out of weakness SOL rebounded from around 99, reaching a high of 101.14, but the most recent full hour closed at 100.82, still not firmly above the previously indicated resistance zone of 100.8—101.1. Upward: First see if it can hold above 101.1, then look at 101.5—102.1. Downward: First watch around 100.25, then 99.7—100. If it falls below 100 again, be cautious of a retest of 99. My inclination: Weakness correction. Reclaiming 100 is an improvement, but until it holds above 101.1, it is not enough to confirm a shift to strength. #BTC现货ETF资金反复,市场买盘能否企稳? BCH warmed up today following the broader market, with funding rates remaining positive and buy-side depth dominant. I judge that short-term buying has initially stabilized, but upward potential depends on volume support. Current price is 287.9, up 3.7% in 24 hours, approaching the intraday high of 290.31, just 0.53% below the four-hour high; the upward structure remains intact. The top ten order book buy/sell ratio is 1.73, clearly favoring buyers. A funding rate of 0.009% indicates mild bullish sentiment without overheating, and coin-margined positions of 84,000 show funds are still actively trading. A light position can be entered on a pullback to 285.6, with a stop loss at 282.3 and a target of 293.7; if volume breaks above 290.31, increase position size, keeping it within 20%, and exit decisively if stop loss is breached. ——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.—— $BCH#BTC现货ETF资金反复,市场买盘能否企稳? #BTC现货ETF资金反复,市场买盘能否企稳? $BCH Microsoft $MSFT is releasing its earnings report after the market closes on October 28 today. Each company has different focus points, and Microsoft has its own characteristics. The priority of focus points is roughly arranged as follows: 1. The top priority is, of course, Azure growth + forward guidance. 2. Then profitability, especially cloud gross margin, mainly to verify whether AI investments have hurt profitability. 3. Next is capital expenditure (Capex), which is especially important this year. 4. Free cash flow (FCF), which is becoming as important as point 3. Many other companies focus on EPS, but for Microsoft, that's not a big deal—they always beat expectations. I compiled a table below showing whether key factors in each earnings report over the past 3 years beat expectations + the stock price performance on the first day after the report, so everyone can see it clearly (ps: their fiscal year calculation is different; other companies' Q3 earnings correspond to their Q1). There is a rule in US stock earnings betting: the more a stock has risen recently and the more news there is, the easier it is for the market to find faults. Meeting or slightly beating expectations can still lead to a big drop. Microsoft just hit a historical high, so the difficulty level has risen sharply. But putting aside the one-day gamble, Microsoft's historical performance in October and November is still good. In the past 10 years, the probability of gains from October 31 to November 30 is 80%, with 8 out of 10 times positive returns, averaging +4.12%. Everyone, stay tuned #微软Azure增长43%,AI商业化能否提速?