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#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
Short-term trading growth is expected to continue. In August 2026, stock trading volume increased by 68% year-over-year, options by 50%, and market trading volume is expected to grow about 15 times, but cryptocurrency trading volume declined by 38% year-over-year. Diversified business is reducing dependence on the crypto market, and sustainability still depends on market activity, user growth, and profitability.$CAP is advised not to short, this person has been buying continuously#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
"Fed Decision Imminent, Bitcoin Consolidates with Low Volume"
This Thursday early morning, the Federal Reserve will announce the October interest rate decision. Many expected the market to be bustling on the eve of this major event, but Bitcoin has been quieter than anyone else these past two days.
After dropping from $84,539 all the way below $80,000 to a low of $79,803, bulls have pulled it back above $80,000, but the total network trading volume has shrunk sharply from $553 million to $201 million, with major players collectively stepping back to observe.
Currently, spot price is hovering around $80,379, and everyone is waiting for the interest rate decision at 2 AM Thursday to set the direction. $BTC Calculating, 18 months is one and a half years. This "early bull market" judgment focuses on old coins that have been dormant for at least one and a half years. Bitcoin analysis reported by Cointelegraph suggests that the share of realized market cap held by this batch of coins is declining, indicating an early bull market and expecting a strong rise accordingly. I think it can be interpreted as somewhat bullish, but there is still a lack of evidence to confirm the market trend.
① The threshold is coins unmoved for 18 months or more; the observation target is not all $BTC. It describes changes in a specific coin-age group and cannot be directly equated with the buying and selling intentions of the entire market.
② What is declining is the share of realized market cap, not the exact quantity of old coins sold as explicitly given by the source. To calculate the proportion, both numerator and denominator must be considered. Based solely on the share decline, I would not directly conclude that long-term holders are concentrating on selling.
③ The source provides an 18-month screening line but does not give the extent of the decline or the comparison period. The term "decline" could vary in weight; if it is just a short-term fluctuation, then using it to judge the bull market phase seems premature to me.
I prefer to treat this information as a bullish clue pending verification, rather than a countdown to a market trend. Next, I will monitor whether this share change can continue and whether there is more complete data on the extent and period, to first fill in the gaps and then improve the confidence of the judgment.I just came across "£22 billion currency fund on XRPL" and initially thought the entire fund had been moved on-chain.
After checking Aviva Investors' original text from yesterday, what was put on-chain is a newly created tokenized share of this fund. Aviva itself first invested £50 million. Comparing £50 million to the £22 billion fund size, that's just over 0.2%. Including the previous USD fund, the total on-chain shares of the two funds amount to just over £86 million.
The on-chain layer is just an access point; the fund itself remains off-chain, with assets still custodied at BNY Mellon in New York. Coincidentally, Ripple obtained the final approval from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national trust bank on the same day, and the main custodian for RLUSD's $2.5 billion reserve is also this BNY.
So don't hype this as "institutions massively going on-chain". The headline is flashy, but the money is still watched by the old banks, with only a small opening on-chain.
If by the end of the year Aviva's two on-chain shares exceed £200 million in total, then consider me conservative. #Ripple获美国国家信托银行最终批准 18,600 coins, this is the net inflow of Bitcoin by short-term holders into exchanges in the past 24 hours, mostly at a loss.
The market is cooperating as well, OKX is now hovering around 79,800, with a 24-hour low of 79,400, just grinding below the 80,000 mark. Those who chased above 80,000 and got in are now selling at a loss, no surprise there.
Last time I bet it would break through at a similar threshold, but it just got ground down for three days with no reaction. This time I’ve learned my lesson; at this kind of level, I won’t make a move—neither cutting losses nor adding.
Also, the original Bitcoin DEX, the old version V1 of DotSwap, was hacked; within four hours, 8.5 BTC were drained from the pool, about 685,000 USD, due to the outdated server-side signature mechanism. The amount isn’t large, but the old protocol managing the custody pool is like this—when something goes wrong, it’s a total mess.
The sell-off orders are piling up at the doorstep, either triggering a wave of accelerated decline or grinding into a bottom. I’m betting on the latter. The 80,000 integer level has always been formed by grinding, not by breaking through.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 📉 Downward unchanged: Short covering can't support the second leg, 80,850 can't be reached, first return to 79,800.
Reconciliation: At 18:17 bet on down, low point 79,505 missed by 49, no break, pulled back to 80,313, coordinate not reached.
This hour exploded 9.81 million, shorts account for 91.1%; 12 hours longs are 57.1%, switched sides.
Fee rate all three periods 0.01000%, premium −0.037% discount. Discount still pays full rent, money is supported by interest rate, not grabbed by longs.
Turnover 162.1 billion +22.51%, open interest 143 billion +1.97%, liquidations 145 million −6.96%. Volume increase with position adding, fewer deaths, both sides adding waiting for open.
Mr. Nameless's wallet increased from 266 to 1,703.98 coins, 137 million USD, previous two times piled to 2,000 coins were pushed back at 23:00.
Contrary evidence: ETF daily NAV +110 million turned positive, 30 days still −279 million, can't change direction.
Coordinates: first watch 79,800, if broken watch 79,505.
Invalidation line: 1H close above 81,300 means I'm wrong, this week's box top, until 10-28 08:00.
Personal review, not advice.
In the first hour of the open, do you bet on touching 80,850 first, or returning to 79,800 first?
$BTC #OctoberFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnouncedThisWeekZEC rose about 2.9% today to 1266, while BTC is still hovering around 80,000. I won't chase this relatively strong wave for now.
Noticed: Crypto Economy wrote this afternoon that ZEC held above 1200 even when BTC fell below 80,000, mentioning that high derivative positions and short squeezes could amplify volatility.
TokenPost also noted on the same day that ZEC rose over 3%, approaching 1250.
At this moment (10/27 ~21:03), OKX spot is about 1266, 24-hour high 1278, low 1211.5; perpetual nominal positions about $157 million, funding rate slightly negative.
The top hot topic on Orbit remains this week's October FOMC, with the decision on Wednesday.
My view: This is relative strength before the FOMC, not confirmation of a privacy coin trend; with leverage piling up, it looks more like an observation window.
First, watch if it can hold above 1250 and reclaim today's high of 1278; if it breaks today's low of 1211 and falls back below 1200, this observation fails.
Do you think it can hold 1250 before the FOMC, or will it first retest 1200?
$ZEC $BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ On October 26, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $110.3 million, ending the previous trading day's net outflow of $137.9 million. The ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of about $88.58 million, and the SOL spot ETF also had a net outflow of about $8.2 million.
BTC received $110 million in buying, so why am I still not in a hurry to be bullish? The latest ETF funds show a clear divergence.
On the surface, institutional buying for BTC has returned, but this is not a comprehensive strengthening; rather, funds continue to concentrate on BTC.
BTC: The ETF inflow again indicates that there is still capital support around the $80,000 level. However, a single-day scale of $110 million is not strong, and the funds that flowed out the previous trading day have not been fully recovered. If the price does not keep up with the capital inflow, it actually indicates that selling pressure above remains.
ETH: ETF outflows are close to $90 million, clearly weaker than BTC. BTC can maintain consolidation with capital support, but ETH lacks incremental buying. Once BTC falls again, ETH is more likely to break key support.
SOL: ETF continues small outflows, indicating that high-volatility funds remain cautious. The market may have some resilience during rebounds, but sustainability cannot be overestimated for now.
The real signal from this data set is not that institutions are bottom-fishing comprehensively, but that funds are only willing to take on BTC and are unwilling to expand risk exposure.
Therefore, I remain short-term bearish. Unless BTC firmly reclaims key resistance levels, ETH and SOL rebounds should be viewed as weak recoveries, and there is no rush to chase longs. SkyAI was formerly known as Sharps Technology. In August 2025, it raised over $400 million to convert into a SOL treasury, and in the following month, it purchased more than 2 million SOL tokens, becoming at one point the fifth largest publicly listed SOL holding company.
By October 16, all these tokens had been sold off. According to company disclosures, about 1 million tokens had been sold by the time the buyback was announced on October 11. Later SEC filings showed around 600,000 tokens remaining, which were then completely cleared out. The company had $223.8 million in cash on hand, of which $201.3 million was allocated for the buyback at $3 per share, with the offer ending on October 29.
An interesting detail: initially, the buyback came with a condition that SOL had to stay above $100, but this condition was later removed. By the end of 2025, the company's holding cost was about $194 per token, while $SOL has been hovering around $100 this month, roughly half the cost. Bastion Trading, holding nearly 10%, felt $3 was too low and requested $3.5 and an independent review, choosing not to participate.
Such companies had a combined unrealized loss of $1.5 billion as of February this year. Those able to convert tokens into cash and return it to shareholders might be emulated, or it could be an isolated case. How other SOL treasury companies choose to proceed will be the next point of focus.482,228 tokens, 49 million USD, three days. There is a SOL whale selling off in batches, this is the most solid data today.
SOL is now at 100.1, it broke 100 intraday, dropped to a low of 99.17 and then pulled back, down 1.4% in 24 hours. The bulls are struggling to hold the 100 level.
Selling over three days instead of dumping all at once indicates they are looking for liquidity and don't intend to kill the order book. But conversely, it does mean there are serious sellers above 100, so don't confuse a rebound with a reversal.
By the way, Marinade said the Agave validator margin deduction exemption after the slot jump is confirmed, so the ecosystem side has no substantial damage; this is not negative news.
I thought the rebound could hold at 102, but I was proven wrong. Now I've learned to be cautious, leaving the longs above 100 to others and waiting until the selling is done.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The 5 to 7-year roadmap for silver now seems more like a period of speculation rather than a phase of chasing gains, right? At first glance, when I saw the $37 to $39 retracement zone, I felt a bit intrigued because the $36.57 to $38.82 range aligns perfectly with a cluster of Fibonacci levels and wave structures, like a pre-drawn catch point✨. But looking further ahead, $269 in 2029 and $410 to $569 between 2032 and 2033, assuming gold reaches 18,000 and the gold-silver ratio compresses to 30 to 40, this is no longer just a technical chart; it’s a macro narrative being staked as well. What concerns me more is the rhythm: once these ultra-long-term targets become part of the market narrative, short-term positions tend to get crowded first, leverage heats up, and spot positions become passive. Silver and BTC are very similar in this regard; the price hasn’t finished moving yet, but the funding rates, open interest, and liquidation bands on the contract side have already started telling a story💫. If the $37 to $39 zone is truly tested, the key isn’t whether it’s reached or not, but whether positions are reduced or increased during the retracement, and whether funding rates cool down or continue to peak—this determines if it’s a shakeout or a fragile balance before a squeeze. The bullish path is also clear: as long as $29.86 holds, the wave count remains valid, retracements don’t break previous lows, and positions moderately decline, it’s easier to wash out floating positions and leave room for what’s next. The risk lies on the other side: high targets themselves attract chasing orders, and once the macro assumptions loosen, it’s often not the spot sentiment that crashes first but the highly leveraged layer. Altcoins and risk appetite will also be affected accordingly; if volatility expands for a "slow asset" like silver, patience for high beta assets will be even shorter. Tired of looking at the $BTC 4-hour chart, switched to 1-hour and found that the dog whale is just torturing me on a different scale.
Falling down from 84,900, each rebound is lower than the last. Now it's grinding around 80,000. I don't think it's gearing up for a big move; it feels more like both buyers and sellers are waiting for news, and no one wants to make the first move.
The short moving averages are stuck near 80,100, and the price hasn't reclaimed that level yet. Although the MACD isn't as ugly as before, it only means the drop isn't as severe; it doesn't prove the bulls are ready to enter.
My thinking is simple:
First, the 80,600–80,900 range needs to be reclaimed and held on a pullback before I consider entering a small position, initially targeting around 81,300. If I chase in and it falls back into the original range, I'll admit I was wrong and exit.
Next, watch 79,220. If it really breaks below that and the rebound can't recover, don't comfort yourself with washouts; be prepared in advance for 77K and 75K.
This week is packed with news: the Fed decision early Thursday morning, followed by GDP and PCE in the evening.
I'd rather buy a bit later than risk another stop loss just to chase a few hundred dollars of rebound.$BTC retail investors are still waiting to buy the dip starting with 7,
while institutions have already treated the BTC candlestick as a purchase order.
Strive averaged 82,700 and directly swept over 6,000 coins, smashing 500 million dollars in one go.
The order book looks lifeless, but underwater there are big players buying spot in tons.
With the circulating supply being forcibly moved by whales every day, can the bears really suppress it?
#BTC
$BTC
👇Progress toward an agreement could unwind part of the geopolitical risk premium in oil, while a breakdown in negotiations could quickly revive supply fears and push energy prices higher.
My take: The market is trading the possibility of peace, not yet the reality of secure shipping. Until commercial traffic through Hormuz normalizes, any oil price relief remains vulnerable to the next geopolitical headline.
#USIranHormuzTalks The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision this Wednesday (October 28), with the market widely expecting it to remain unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00%. In a Reuters survey, 94 out of 100 economists expect a pause this month, but all 100 expect a rate hike in December. The biggest focus this week is the possibility of holding steady this month and potentially acting next month.
This round of rate hikes began in September, when rates were raised by 25 basis points for the first time in three years. The driver was inflation: the September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, with oil prices soaring due to the Iran conflict.
Why pause despite still-high inflation? First, the economy is resilient and the labor market stable, allowing room for a pause; second, the September hike has already pushed up Treasury yields and tightened financial conditions, so the effects are being observed. Chris Hodge of Natixis said the pause helps determine whether high inflation is a trend.
Political factors cannot be ignored. The Fed will meet before the November 3 election, and Heather Long of Navy Federal believes there will be no rate hike close to the election.
Market pricing also confirms this: CME FedWatch shows an 88% probability of no change in October and a 71% probability of a hike in December. CNBC reports that futures markets show less than a 10% chance of a rate hike this month, with nearly 75% expecting at least one more hike this year. $NVDA AI demand is strong, so why is the market still focused on financing costs and capital expenditures? AI chip sales benefit from data center expansions, but the lengthened customer investment recovery cycle may affect order continuity and valuation. Asian stock markets rose today driven by AI, with semiconductor sectors showing clear resilience; the downside is that computing power spending may be overly concentrated. If orders, gross margins, and customer cash flows remain robust simultaneously, I will maintain a positive outlook; if spending outpaces returns, expectations need to be lowered.Many people blindly believe in funding rates
They say if the funding rate soars, there will definitely be a big drop or a sharp dip
I think that's not necessarily true,
Actually, when the overall funding rate is flat, not suddenly spiking a lot (compare the two charts below),
this kind of funding rate is not deterministic, it's just a reference indicator
The essence of trend influence still depends on liquidity.
From the market perspective, support has been broken multiple times, seller liquidity has been repeatedly seized, whether the 791 low will be broken again is not certain (it only means there is a probability, nothing more; even if the 791 support breaks, the downside is likely limited because support has been broken multiple times before, seller liquidity has been liquidated many times, and the remaining liquidity is very limited),
On the contrary, the probability of a big rebound after consolidation is very high, because every short during rebounds has been profitable, and a large amount of short liquidity has accumulated during the downtrend.
Moreover, the current funding rate around 0.01% is influenced by many factors
1. Retail investors have not panicked to chase shorts below 80,000 (no negative premium in contracts)
2. It is within the exchange's "clamping balance range" formula
This indicates that the current $BTC market is in a rebalancing period after a liquidity vacuum:
Shorts are unwilling to aggressively leverage to chase shorts above the 79,000~80,000 support zone,
And longs are cautious after experiencing liquidations, both sides are watching,
Contract and spot prices are highly aligned.
Of course, the specific trend still depends on how news unfolds; what we can do is strictly stop loss and aim for reasonable targets and risk-reward ratios.Diplomacy is offering the oil market some relief, but the Strait of Hormuz remains the real test.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on October 26 to prevent further military escalation. Oman is also reporting progress toward a temporary arrangement to restore freedom of navigation.
Yet Brent crude remains around $115 per barrel, showing how little confidence the market has in a quick return to normal supply conditions.
#USIranHormuzTalks #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
BTC is now around 80K, pushed back from 81K to test 79,321, bounced to 80,700 but lost momentum. No one dares to move before the FOMC.
Bears can't push it down, bulls can't lift it up, it's stuck. ETFs are flowing out, whales' transfers down 36%, retail investors want to run on the rebound, but big players are adding longs. There's buying support below 79,300, strong resistance between 81K-82K, only breaking above 83K will be promising.
My view: Before the FOMC, bulls might rally on the "no rate hike" expectation, but will likely face resistance near 82.5K, then retest 79K, or even 78K-76.5K. Don't chase longs or shorts before it settles.#StockEarningsSeason #USStockEarnings
Google will release its earnings report tomorrow night (around 4 AM Beijing time on Thursday). What I’m most interested in isn’t how much profit they made, but the capex.
Last quarter, cloud business grew 82%, EPS was 9.11 vs. 2.88, clearly a big beat, yet the stock price still dropped 7.1% the next day. Conversely, in April this year, it rose 10%, while options only priced in about 5.5%. Both times exceeded options expectations.
This time, options are pricing in ±6.4%, with the market expecting revenue around 127.9 billion and EPS about 3.02. This year’s capex guidance has already been raised to 195–205 billion; if it goes higher, even a beat might not help.
$GOOGL perpetual is now around 319, with 317 as this week’s low. Breaking below that could lead to further downside; on the upside, watch if it can reclaim 325 first.
Before the earnings, I don’t want to guess the direction. Are you betting it will go up or down?
Just my personal observation, not investment advice.$ETH This order, I wrote the rules as "If... then...", leaving no room for improvisation.
Open position at 2320.52, 100x leverage, current price 2336.18, floating profit 67.48%, buffer 0.67%.
If it breaks below 2300 → close the position. Do not wait for the cost line at 2320.52. 2300 is the foundation; if the foundation collapses, everything above is invalid. Although 2300 is further from the cost line (36.18 vs 15.66 points), once it breaks, it means this bullish structure has ended.
If it holds above 2350 → then talk about 2400. 2350 is 13.82 points (0.59%) above the current price, the first hurdle tonight. If it can't break through, 67.48% is the ceiling; take profits while you can.
If it moves sideways around 2336 → set a time limit. At 100x nominal position, funding fees apply; even if the direction is right, you have to pay. One day sideways, the fees will eat up most of this 67.48%. If the first two conditions are not triggered by the deadline, I will handle it myself.
If the floating profit continues to rise → absolutely no adding to the position. This is the easiest rule to break. Adding positions under 100x leverage is like moving closer to the edge of a cliff. Adding positions turns one gamble into two. $BTC $ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 A return flow of 1.08 billion USD in three days—is it a "real reversal" or a "false move"?
Looking at the ETF data, the Bitcoin spot funds have had net inflows for three consecutive trading days, directly pushing the net inflow for October back to 461 million.
BlackRock and Fidelity absorbed the majority, and the buying was indeed widespread. But one detail is worth pondering: in the past three rounds where Bitcoin rose over 50%, the daily average ETF net inflow was over 200 million USD, while since July this year, the daily average has only been 86 million.
In other words, this return flow is real, but the speed has not yet reached the "ignition" level.
For Ethereum, the ETF single-day net inflow was 29.4 million, with Grayscale contributing the bulk, but on a 30-day scale it is still a net outflow hole. SOL had a single-day net inflow of 10.67 million, the smallest volume, and its confirmation effect on the trend is also the weakest.
Zijin's replenishment is the first step; sustainability is the second. If no action is taken (currently the market pricing maintains a probability of over 90% that interest rates remain unchanged), the real test is just beginning.
This is only a market record and does not constitute investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Until then, BTC’s reaction may be more about positioning and sentiment than a genuine shift in macro conditions.
I’d rather see BTC reclaim $80K and hold it after the initial news-driven move than chase a relief rally that could fade as quickly as it started.
#USIranHormuzTalks 1. Current Position
OKX BTC-USDT around 79,840.5 (13:22, -0.45%); 24H range 79,455.8 ~ 80,849.9; other levels 79,821.7 (12:08), 80,040.2 (09:53)
Last night US stocks surged, but BTC did not follow: S&P +0.70% at 7,676.77, Nasdaq +0.82%, Dow +0.28%, Philly Semiconductor +2.82% (Anthropic filed S-1 igniting AI rally), while BTC remains below 80,000. This is the most important divergence tonight: the risk appetite recovery in stocks has not transmitted to the crypto space.
Three pieces of evidence supporting this divergence: Coinbase premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days (-0.126%~-0.15%, weak US spot buying); BTC market dominance rose to 57.8%~60.1% (funds are only contracting internally within crypto towards BTC, no new money inflow); Strategy last week (10/19~25) had zero purchases and used $204.9 million to repurchase preferred shares (holding 848,517 units, average price $75,446) — major real buyers have stopped.
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 For every 100 KRW of products sold, about 76 KRW remains as operating profit. This is the profit margin SK Hynix reported last quarter. In Q2 2026, the company’s revenue was approximately 79.32 trillion KRW, with operating profit around 60.54 trillion KRW. Looking at a company like this, I would first set aside the "AI demand is very strong" narrative and calculate how much demand has actually impacted the profit statement. At least from these figures, price increases in storage and sales of high-value products have turned into real, tangible profits. Next, the question is how long this high level of profitability can be sustained. SK Hynix will release its Q3 results on October 28. I am more focused on the ramp-up of HBM4: the company previously disclosed that HBM4 began mass shipments in Q2 and plans to continue scaling up in the second half of the year. Whether this growth will be reflected in revenue and profit in Q3 will directly affect market expectations for the following quarters. There is one easily overlooked factor here. Increased orders require capacity expansion; new capacity coming online requires upfront spending. Selling more is obviously good, but if growth demands continuous investment, how much cash remains in the end must also be considered. In August, the company approved about 54 trillion KRW in new factory investments, involving Yongin Y2 and Cheongju M17, which is a multi-year construction plan and not all spent in this quarter. The scale of this investment also makes me want to hear management’s explanation about future demand and capacity plans: which demands are already secured by customers, and which still require gradual investment as the market evolves. So IStarting from the afternoon of October 21, BTC and ETH both moved downward, stopping at noon on the 24th. BTC dropped by 5677 USD, 6.7%, over 68 hours. ETH fell by 244 USD, 9.7%, over 44 hours.
At the stopping points, each left a low point on both sides. BTC was at 79220, ETH at 2282. Both positions still hold now.
The rebound was not urgent. BTC touched 80844 and then retreated, ETH reached 2344 and lost momentum. Based on their respective drops, both only recovered about 25% to 30%, not even reaching 38%.
The low points were tested twice; I compared these two times. BTC's first test was on the 24th, the second in the early morning of the 26th. The second test had 40% less volume and a 20% smaller rebound. ETH dropped more, with nearly 60% less volume and a 40% smaller rebound.
The low points were raised slightly, indicating someone was buying. Each rebound was smaller than the last, showing buyers are not in a hurry.
For now, I treat the upper boundaries as references, not as solid resistance. BTC's 80844 and ETH's 2344 were each touched only once, not enough evidence to block the price. I focus on the closing price.
If the close is above 80844, BTC's recent drop is considered repaired, and we look upward toward the retracement level and the mid-term moving average above. If the close is below 79220, the drop is not yet repaired, and we set another level down based on the drop. ETH uses the same criteria, with numbers replaced by 2344 and 2282.
My current bias is toward the downside. Both are still below the three moving averages, and the rebound hasn't even reached 38%. This bias is easy to change; it only requires the two upper levels to close above.
Finally, a few off-topic remarks.
Using the same rules, in backtesting I can accept a 30% retracement without emotion. With real money, I want to close positions after just a 3% drop. The rules haven't changed a bit, but I still want to exit during the toughest periods. So now, when I judge whether something will succeed, I first see if I would act when feeling uncomfortable.Looking at OKX's earnings season forecast targets this week, wow, they're all top tech companies.
The big players are busy figuring out how to expand capacity and boost profits, while I'm here calculating how to maximize the returns on my 553 XP points, climbing from Growth Helper to the Expert Leaderboard~
There are three days left until the weekly leaderboard closes on the 29th, so I'll pick two tech giants from the weekly leaderboard to study carefully and try to grab some of the weekly leaderboard bonus pool.
First up, SK Hynix.
My judgment is straightforward: the earnings report will most likely beat expectations, and it’s almost a sure thing.
The logic is so simple it’s almost boring. HBM capacity is sold out, DRAM prices are still rising, and the storage sector has long shifted from a cutthroat price war to a seller’s market. A manufacturer sitting at the fattest spot in the supply chain—if their earnings report looks bad now, that would be real news. So the question isn’t whether they can make money, but how much they make.
Next, Robinhood.
My judgment is also that it will likely beat, but this time it depends on whether the crypto market shows some respect.
Crypto overall has been trending up these past few months, retail sentiment hasn’t faded, and options are lively. Robinhood’s business model relies on taking a cut; the more people in the arena and the more active the betting, the better it is for them. So revenue, especially from crypto and options, is very likely solid. The HBM trade is becoming a capacity allocation story, not just an AI demand story.
When memory inventory gets this tight, chipmakers face a choice: prioritize high margin HBM or supply conventional DRAM. That competition can push memory prices higher, but it also makes supply normalization the biggest risk to the trade.
SK Hynix has the advantage today, but Samsung's progress shows that leadership is not guaranteed.
#SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook Why is it that the longer you research a coin, the harder it becomes to cut your losses?
The most dangerous kind of research is when you uncover more and more problems with the project, yet your reasons for holding on become increasingly justified.
Before buying, you look at the team, revenue, unlock schedules, and valuation; after getting stuck, the team selling coins is called improving liquidity, user decline is called an industry downturn, and breaking support is called a shakeout by the main players.
You use all your research skills, except to test whether you bought wrong.
There’s a psychological account hidden here: having spent so much time and gone through so much information, selling now would mean all that research was for nothing. So besides the purchase cost, there’s an additional layer of reluctance to give up.
But the market doesn’t pay you for research time. Understanding a project doesn’t mean its token is worth holding: business growth doesn’t necessarily bring token demand, and the money raised by the project won’t automatically be shared with token holders.
A practical self-check is: if you were empty-handed today, with the same information and price, would you still want to buy? If the answer is no, you should reassess your position and not let “I’ve held it for so long” make the decision for you.
Remember: research should clarify your exit conditions. If in the end you only have more and more reasons to hold, you may have stopped being an investor and become a free PR agent for the project team.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ I think SK Hynix's Q3 might fall short of expectations, mainly because people may be overestimating HBM's profit-making ability. No matter how many orders there are, actual delivery matters, and ramping up production and new lines could still push costs higher. If the regular DRAM and NAND businesses perform just average, the overall profit might not be as good as imagined. The worst thing in earnings season is when a company makes a decent profit, but the market responds with: "Is that it?" Many people no longer remember the name Arbistar, the Spanish Ponzi scheme that collapsed in 2020. Today, the Spanish police released news that wallets associated with it before and after the collapse transferred over 1.1 billion USD worth of Bitcoin. When I see such news in a bear market, I always take a closer look.
On the market, BTC is now hovering around 79,700, with a 24-hour low of 79,455, missing the 80,000 mark again. The fee rate is 0.01%, with neither panic nor rush to accumulate; the contract open interest is still over 2.6 billion USD, and no major withdrawals are seen.
My view is that breaking 80,000 itself is not scary; what's scary is if it breaks and no one catches it. There is still volume supporting below for now. If it really crashes to a new low, that’s not a signal to bottom-fish, it’s a different matter. Just watch and keep your hands still.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 This $SNDK long position, 75x leverage, opened at 1235.7, current price 1286.6, floating profit 308.93%.
Three numbers govern this position: buffer 3.95%, resistance 1300, target 1350.
Buffer 3.95% — if it retraces 3.95%, this 308% profit resets to zero. With 75x leverage, there is no margin for error, no room to "wait and see." It's 0.38 percentage points thicker than the evening's 3.57% because it moved 5.1 points further, not because my judgment is more accurate. Positions with thin cushions have no right to talk about the big picture, only about rules.
Resistance at 1300 is 13.4 points (1.04%) overhead. This integer level is critical — if broken, 1350 can be expected; if not, this is the short-term top. 1280 has long been established (6.6 points below), but holding steady does not mean it can hold; a pullback confirmation is standard. If it falls back, this breakout must be questioned.
Review: Last night 1269, 202%, 2.69% → Evening 1281.5, 278%, 3.57% → Now 1286.6, 308.93%, 3.95%. The cushion is gradually thickening, but its nature hasn't changed — still a thin cushion position.
Trading discipline: protect principal and push up, no further exposure expansion. Once over 300%, half should be taken off the table, base position waits for 1300 confirmation. No adding positions, no holding losing positions. If it holds 1300, watch for 1350; if it falls back to 1235.7, admit the mistake. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 There is a rather scary statistic: among the top traders on the four perpetual platforms Hyperliquid, Lighter, dYdX, and Pacifica, only 9% are long positions.
My first reaction was that it was another panic hype. Checking the original data, it’s the combined top 100 accounts by 7-day profit, with longs at $324 million versus shorts at $3.11 billion. The short positions are more than nine times the value of the longs; the numbers are not fabricated. But I’ve seen the same metric flip from 94% short to 80% long within 24 hours, a swing of 74 percentage points, so I treat it as a thermometer, not a steering wheel.
HYPE is now around 77.8, fluctuating between 76.7 and 80.6 in 24 hours, moving sideways enough to make people sleepy.
I’ve learned my lesson: the more I look at this data, the fewer trades I place, and my wallet stays more secure.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Many people shout "recovery" when they see ETF inflows, but after reviewing the data, I just want to say: this is not a recovery market at all, it's a single-plank bridge market📊
Let's sort out the capital flow: In the past two days, BTC spot ETFs had a total net outflow of 774 million USD, the selling pressure has made the market very uncomfortable. Yesterday finally saw an inflow, a single-day net inflow of 110.3 million USD, but this money almost entirely came from BlackRock's IBIT, while the other ETF varieties basically remained flat with no capital movement.
What does this mean?
It's not a collective bottom-fishing by institutions, but just a single test move by a leading giant.
The volume is also insufficient to support a reversal: counting the whole of October, BTC spot ETFs still had a net outflow of 202 million USD, the gap remains.
ETH is even quieter, with yesterday's ETF net outflow of 88.6 million USD, and ETHA alone outflowed 104.7 million, the selling pressure continues to release.
The market also confirms this logic: BTC is now stuck at 79,700, continuously pressured below the 80,000 threshold.
The capital bleeding rate has slowed, but the market structure is far from repaired.
In summary: before the FOMC announcement, this wave is merely a test, not a counterattack.
Do not mistake IBIT's single purchase as a signal for a new trend start.
Coincidentally, ZECW and UAI in the group successfully captured gains this wave, again confirming the current market is severely differentiated, broad rallies have not arrived, only local opportunities can be seized.
The profit and loss calendar is here; the premise of stable gains is understanding the true and false signals of capital, not being fooled by short-term single data points into jumping in. I often look at on-chain prediction markets and first flip through the settlement rules, with the odds reversed at the end. When trading crypto, you can always argue about whether it's expensive or cheap, but when predicting an event, you have to clearly define what conditions count as the event occurring.
Stablecoin settlement and recording on-chain are quite crypto. But the odds are just judgments expressed by participants using money; if funds crowd on one side, it doesn't necessarily mean it's closer to the truth.
Especially when the question is vaguely written, I get a bit distracted: the money is on-chain, but if there's a dispute in the end, who will make the final call?Binance will remove 12 spot trading pairs on October 30. I counted them one by one, and they are all /BTC pairs—AAVE/BTC, TAO/BTC, ICP/BTC, PENDLE/BTC, XAUT/BTC, etc. There isn't a single USDT pair.
This detail is more interesting than the delisting itself. What's being cut isn't the coins, but the pairs that no one trades: altcoins paired with Bitcoin have had their liquidity drained long ago, so they're just placeholders now.
AAVE spot is currently at 132.96, fluctuating between 129.5 and 138.8 in the last 24 hours. The coin is fine; it's the trading pairs that are dead.
I also have a few BTC pairs in my wallet that I haven't touched for years; the exchange cleaned them up before I did.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Six categories clearly not to buy tonight
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Intel, Coinbase, Strategy, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Merck — all releasing earnings reports between 10/29 and 10/30 early morning (Alphabet confirmed after market on 10/28, conference call early morning 10/29). Opening new positions tonight = directly betting on the event.
Meta: The pricing discount for the $95 billion equity financing has not been finalized, and "NVIDIA investing $3 billion in Meta" is a circular transaction narrative (the market has already expressed clear doubts), diluting while buying each other — direction uncertain.
New cloud (CRWV/NBIS/IREN/HUT/RIOT): Musk warns "over 200 companies face massive death and consolidation," CoreWeave’s 2032 bond yield once near 15%.
Defense/Aerospace (LMT etc.): Lockheed reported earnings on 10/22 (revenue $20.711 billion +11%, EPS 7.97, backlog $291.984 billion record high, raised full-year guidance), closed last night +5.13% at 635.2, about -7.7% from 52-week high 688.55, better to wait for a pullback near 600 than chase highs.
Leveraged/inverse ETFs, single stock options (volatility structure on the eve of decisions is most unfavorable for holding leverage).
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #The October FOMC rate decision will be announced this week
The FOMC opens at midnight on the 29th, how much longer can this hawkish stance from Waller last? How should AI and BTC position themselves?
Brothers, the FOMC is at 2 AM tonight, and the market has already priced in a "hold steady" — rate futures show over 90% probability of no change in October. But the real drama isn’t in the decision itself, it’s in Waller’s speech at 2:30 AM.
Is Waller hawkish? Most likely yes.
This guy was famously hawkish during his Fed days. Although he’s been softer in words recently, with inflation expectations soaring to 4.7%, he can’t afford to sound dovish now. Bloomberg put it bluntly: Waller’s dilemma is to reassure the market "we’re still fighting inflation" while explaining why there’s no rate hike this time. Translation: hawkish words, steady hands, a December hike is the script.
How to position AI?
The Nasdaq closed at 26,169 yesterday, up 0.82%. But if Waller stays tough on the 29th, tech stocks — these long-duration assets — will be hit first. My strategy: don’t chase before the meeting, wait for the dip from the 2:30 AM sell-off. The AI narrative isn’t broken; what’s broken is valuation sensitivity to rates.
What about BTC? Current price 79,756, can’t even hold above 80,000. Classic "playing dead before the meeting." BTC is now the most sensitive to macro liquidity; if Waller’s hawkish, 78,000 is seen; if he softens, 82,000 gets tested. But don’t bet on direction, wait until he finishes speaking before moving.
The decision itself is no drama, the press conference is the real thunder.The number of whale shorts keeps piling up, yet ZEC remains pinned above $1200. This round, I'm siding with the bulls first.
Current price is 1274, 24-hour low is 1211. The perpetual funding rate is negative, at -0.0033% for the first tier, meaning shorts pay longs every 8 hours, with $150 million in contract positions open. With such heavy short pressure, the price just won't go down.
There's also something tonight: a Zcash co-founder proposed stopping the automatic community funding plan, saying the pool already has over $125 million. According to short logic, a coin starting to shrink should be hammered down more, but it can't be pushed down.
When the market can't be pushed down, I won't say much; let's first see how long the $1200 line holds.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Today, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been fluctuating all day, with volatility even less than the weekend's market. Bitcoin has been trying to hold steady at 80,000, but every time it reaches the 80,000 mark, it falls back. Is the pressure really that strong?
According to Bitcoin ETF funds data on October 26, there was a net inflow of $110.3 million that day.
However, net fund inflow alone cannot determine an upward trend. Currently, it is just a phase of returning funds, not a sustained inflow. Last Thursday and Friday saw relatively large outflows, totaling $774 million. We still need to pay attention to the subsequent ETF fund inflow situation.
On October 26, Ethereum's spot ETF had an outflow of $88.6 million that day.
The fund situation is not optimistic and is completely different from Bitcoin's. Ethereum ETF funds are still continuously flowing out. Although there have been net inflows during this period, they are negligible—millions when inflowing, tens of millions to hundreds of millions when outflowing. It is a completely different situation from Bitcoin.
The market uncertainty is currently high, and many funds prioritize allocating to Bitcoin rather than Ethereum or other high-risk products. From the current perspective, Ethereum's trend is relatively weak. Only when the fund situation improves will its rebound be stronger; otherwise, the upward momentum will remain weak. $PUMP
Regarding meme coin dumping, I only recognize one thing: whether what's moved is unrealized profit or principal.
This time it's the former. The Solana trader who moved 300 million PUMP tokens to Binance has cumulatively cashed out $8.23 million on-chain, depositing in batches over 6 days. At the current price of 0.00414, that's about 1.24 million. PUMP is hovering around 0.00414 today, down over 2% in 24 hours, with a low of 0.00409; Binance spot prices are similar. The money has been settled and moved out, which is different from a panic sell and run.
I've seen too many cases where dumping is called a shakeout; this time it's reversed, unrealized profits exiting are being called a dump.
Whether it comes back after moving depends on his next move. I'll first note the destination of this 1.24 million.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 BTC is currently at 80,300, with 68.8% of accounts long, while Binance's active sellers account for 68.9% — positions are holding, but money is selling. Long liquidations account for 77%, 79,100–79,200 is the next dense liquidation zone, and short positions above 81,300 have even more fuel. $BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $AAVE
On October 30, Binance will remove 12 spot trading pairs. I counted them one by one, and they are all /BTC pairs—AAVE/BTC, TAO/BTC, ICP/BTC, PENDLE/BTC, XAUT/BTC, etc. There isn't a single USDT pair.
This detail is more interesting than the delisting itself. What's being cut isn't the coins, but the pairs that no one trades: altcoins paired with Bitcoin have had their liquidity drained long ago, and are just occupying space.
AAVE spot is currently at 132.96, fluctuating between 129.5 and 138.8 in 24 hours. The coin is fine; what's dying are the trading pairs.
I also have a few BTC pairs in my wallet that I haven't touched for years, but the exchange is cleaning them up before I do.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The market in one sentence: big players are playing dead, retail investors are getting hit, and ETH bulls are still stubbornly holding on.
BTC is grinding back and forth between 79,800 and 80,000, just like you five minutes before clocking out—sitting at your desk but your mind is already gone. The retail long-short ratio has dropped to 0.4861; after massive liquidations, bulls don’t even have the strength to be optimistic; the big players’ long-short ratio is 0.77, flat longs watching, bears dominating, clearly signaling "I won’t dump, but I won’t catch either." There’s still a perpetual sell order of about $19.6 million hanging at 79,850 above, like a ceiling with a sign saying "Don’t look up." $ETH
ETH is even more conflicted. The price hovers around 2,300, but the long-short ratio remains at 2.46, indicating bullish exposure hasn’t been fully cleared. In the past 24 hours, ETH bulls have been liquidated for $17.47 million, while bears only $10.2 million; bulls have taken most of the pain. The funding rate is still the highest at 0.01%, bulls losing money while paying bears—truly "paying to get hit." Even worse, a certain whale’s nearly $400 million long position has a liquidation price at 2,181; last night’s low was 2,282, just $30 away from being taken out, forcing an emergency margin top-up to stay alive.$BTC
On the capital side, BTC saw a net inflow of $171 million in 24 hours, while ETH only $35.72 million; big players clearly favor BTC
Before the meeting, volume shrinks and the market grinds; big players lie flat and won’t catch the knife, retail investors shouldn’t bear the liquidation line for whales. If you’re itching to trade, wait for the FOMC to set the direction first. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 A tale of two extremes! U.S. economic data is torn apart, is the "lifeline" for BTC bulls here? Just now, the U.S. September durable goods orders data was released, showing an extremely split "ice and fire" picture! This sends a very subtle macro signal to the crypto market, which is desperately defending the $80,000 level. Let's look at how contradictory these three sets of data are: First, the month-over-month durable goods orders excluding defense surged to 2.2% (previously only 0.3%), far exceeding expectations! The data label directly signals "bearish for gold and silver." This indicates that the hard demand from civilian and industrial sectors remains strong, and the U.S. economy still appears "hot" on the surface. Second, durable goods orders excluding transportation rose only 0.5% (below expectations). Third, the most fatal blow: durable goods orders excluding aircraft and non-defense capital goods (core capital goods) recorded only 0.5%, far below the expected 0.7% and the previous 1.6%. Expert perspective breaks down the macro drama behind this: Don't be fooled by that 2.2% superficial prosperity! In economics, "core capital goods orders" are the most critical leading indicator measuring companies' real investment intentions (CapEx). It plunged sharply from 1.6% to 0.5%, indicating that under the extreme pressure of high interest rates, U.S. companies simply dare not spend money to expand production, and the forward momentum of the real economy is accelerating its decline. What does this mean for the Federal Reserve? It means the confidence for "no rate cuts and even rate hikes" is being drained. Companies not investing means future employment and inflation will inevitably cool down. This is for the struggling risk assetsBTC buy orders are futures limit orders, ETH whales are 5% away from liquidation, SanDisk is supported by AI narrative before earnings
Three assets, three different kinds of "strength"
$BTC buy orders may not be spot
Between $78,000 and $79,000, BTC has over $80 million in buy orders concentrated, but a significant portion comes from futures limit orders, not spot purchases, and can be withdrawn at any time. More importantly, exchange stablecoin reserves have dropped to $60.62 billion, the lowest in nearly 12 months, meaning the "ammunition" for bottom-fishing is shrinking
$ETH $2,180, the life-or-death line for a $214 million whale
Down 13.2% since October. One whale holds 93,184 ETH, a $214 million leveraged long position, and after adding 5.67 million USDC, the liquidation price dropped to about $2,180. Spot ETH ETFs saw $225 million outflows this week, with sustained buying pressure fading
$SNDK before earnings, AI narrative reignites
Pre-market rose to about $1,268, Anthropic filed IPO documents reigniting expectations for AI chips and storage demand, storage sector rose broadly pre-market. Q1 earnings are the test point, market expects revenue of $10.72 billion, focus on NAND pricing and enterprise storage demand
Summary: For BTC, watch if the $78,000-$79,000 limit orders convert to real trades; for ETH, watch the $2,180 whale defense line; for SanDisk, watch if earnings can sustain the AI narrative. The quality of buy orders is more worth monitoring than quantity
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Will the growth of Robinhood's trading business continue?Has the $DOT cross-chain vision already generated sufficient token demand? Technical interoperability needs to be validated through developers, applications, and fees; the number of ecosystem projects alone is insufficient to create buying pressure. High interest rate expectations will depress the valuation of long-term growth assets. If on-chain usage and development activity continue to improve and drive token locking, the outlook can be revised upward; if the ecosystem remains fragmented and users and fees do not increase, the vision remains underdelivered.Yesterday BTC touched 80,000 twice. Both times it was pushed back down, closing at 79,842. The strange thing isn’t the price. It only moved 0.8% all day, but the 24-hour trading volume surged 84%, reaching 68.4 billion. The price stayed put while the volume doubled. Someone is rotating positions. I can clearly see the selling side. Last week, BTC spot ETF inflows were 1.075 billion from Monday to Wednesday, then 636 million out on Thursday—the largest single-day outflow since June—and another 138 million out on Friday. Net for the week, that leaves 301 million inflow, a positive number, but looking at the week as a whole, it’s a line that surged up then fell back down. ETH is even more straightforward, with four consecutive weeks of net outflows, last week another 221 million out, totaling over 1.2 billion in a month. On the buying side, I found nothing. Looking downward, there’s no sign of buyers stepping in either. Bitfinex’s assessment marks 79,821 as a potential liquidation trigger level, and below that, the market uses 77,600 as a reference price. If it really falls, the first alarm will sound below 79,000, where there’s no substantial buy support. There’s an even tougher factor explaining why 80,000 can’t hold. Glassnode’s report last week noted that a recent batch of buyers’ cost basis is between 80,000 and 81,500. This group is currently all at unrealized losses; once the price returns above 80,000, their first thought is to break even and exit. So those two surges yesterday were really