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Putin hints at ending the conflict and lifting sanctions! Is this a turning point for peace or just another "smokescreen"? Just now, Putin sent a major signal: there is a need to comprehensively consider ending the ongoing conflict and lifting sanctions. Once the news broke, market expectations for a thaw in geopolitical tensions quickly heated up. With the U.S. midterm elections just a week away on November 3 and domestic energy prices high, these words are far from casual. However, experts must pour cold water on this perspective: Putin's "peace statement" should be viewed within the framework of negotiation leverage, not as a signal of a trend reversal. First, there is real pressure behind the statement. On October 16, the U.S. temporarily suspended several new sanctions on Russia and eased diesel trade restrictions; Russian diesel exports will not be subject to U.S. sanctions until April 2027. Meanwhile, the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine plan to hold trilateral technical-level talks in November, prioritizing discussions on a ceasefire for energy facilities. Putin's emphasis on "lifting sanctions" at this time essentially sets conditions for the upcoming negotiations—sanctions must be lifted first, then the conflict can be ended, rather than an unconditional concession. Second, the market is already pricing in "peace expectations," but this pricing is purely emotional. CITIC Securities clearly points out that if the U.S. and Russia only reach a short-term ceasefire agreement, the impact on major asset classes is more likely to be a short-term emotional reaction, such as a temporary decline in geopolitical risk premiums for gold, crude oil, and the U.S. dollar; only a substantive breakthrough in lifting sanctions on Russia would have a more tangible effect on commodity supply. Third, the transmission path to the crypto market is indirect. Oil$SOL
In the morning session, I said 99.83 was just four cents short of breaking, but at 18:00, a single trade of 488,102 contracts (3.3 times the previous 149,517, the largest of the day) directly pushed it down to 99.11, invalidating my long position conditions on the spot.
But looking closely: the volume smashed out the largest of the day, the price only dropped 0.76, closing at 100.10, breaking 99.83 but then recovering. Breaking but not holding means it was a stop-loss sweep.
After the smash, at 19:00 only 175,744 contracts were traded, and from 20:00 until now just 17,000 — the selling pressure was thick, but the chasing volume disappeared. This move by the bears was not an opening, but a clearing out.
Current price 99.95 / 24h -1.70% / MA20 100.28, resistance at the top by 0.33, no candle closed above it all day.
Buy on a volume-backed close above 100.40 (volume ≥ 200,000 contracts), then pull back to 100.10~100.25 to go long, stop loss at 99.78, targets at 101.10 / 101.63, risk-reward ratio 2.3 / 3.6.
If it rebounds to 100.25~100.40 but fails, and the 1H candle closes bearish with volume ≥ 180,000 contracts, go short, stop loss at 100.70, target 99.11, risk-reward 3.2, do not chase the first break.
Stay out between 99.11~100.40.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)🔥 Oil prices are approaching $110, can BTC still hold up? The real risk might just be beginning! 📉 Many believe that rising oil prices are only an issue for the energy market, but in reality, it could gradually transmit to the stock and cryptocurrency markets through inflation, interest rates, and market liquidity. For Bitcoin, this transmission chain is something every investor should be wary of. ⚠️ To understand the current market, you only need to see one key logic: 🛢️ Rising oil prices → Increased inflation pressure → Limited Fed rate cut space → High funding costs maintained → Risk assets like Bitcoin may come under pressure. 📊 Let's look at the latest data. 🛢️ As of the close on October 26, WTI crude oil futures for November delivery stood at $101.41 per barrel, up 3.51% for the day. 🛢️ Brent crude oil futures for December delivery stood at $109.86 per barrel, up 3.72% for the day. 👀 Although Trump said oil prices will drop soon, the current market performance shows investors remain cautious about the subsequent trend in energy prices. 🇺🇸 What really matters is not just how much oil prices have risen, but whether this round of increases will push up U.S. inflation pressure again. 📈 U.S. inflation rate in September was about 3.7%. According to the University of Michigan survey, the inflation expectation for the next year rose from 4.6% to 4.7%. 📈 Meanwhile, long-term inflation expectations rose from 3.4% to 3.5%, reaching the highest level since May, while the final consumer confidence index was only$97.5 billion, the shovel sellers pay the shovel buyers.
Meta ups the largest equity financing in history to $97.5 billion
Common stock $25 billion priced at $625, plus $12.5 billion mandatory convertible preferred stock
Another $60 billion ATM to be sold slowly in 2027
NVIDIA officially announced today a $3 billion subscription
AMD and Broadcom are also interested, with the three totaling up to $5 billion
Chipmakers pay to help their biggest customer buy chips; the money circulates within the circle and comes back
Meta's stock price fell about 1.4% this morning
Q3 free cash flow -$2.12 billion, negative for the first time in over a decade
The $825 billion future spending commitment is there; the books can't be balanced by storytelling
I think this is the first day AI circular financing is put on the table, observing not chasing
The invalidation point is Meta truly scaling Muse with this money, or capital expenditure guidance capping in 2027
Which side are you on: is circular blood transfusion a moat, or a game of hot potato?
$NVDA $META $AMD
#NVIDIA #Meta$BTC
Jason Calacanis is calling out again, saying Bitcoin will drop to $57,000 within a year, urging everyone to sell quickly.
I casually checked the live market: OKX is currently at 79,907, 24-hour low is 79,455, Binance's lowest is 79,429. The news saying "falling below $80,000" checks out, it's not clickbait. Before the decision, the funding rate is still 0.01% at the first tier, contract positions are $26.1 billion, leverage hasn't fled; but sentiment has already collapsed, the unified sentiment index dropped to -11, Polymarket's remaining October segment probability of hitting 82,500 dropped by 20% in one day, now only 36%.
There's another detail on-chain: whale Mk4 is holding $25 million NEAR longs on one side, while shorting BTC plus seven major mainstream coins totaling $13.1 million on the other.
This is not bearish, it's hedging, with positions on both sides.
$57,000 is what he said, not me. I only know that before the decision lands, these two-sided bets are more interesting than one-sided calls.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 I noticed that this time Marinade distinguishes between client defects and validator responsibilities. Running the Agave 4.3.2 node of Alpenglow, about half of the slots in the first block production window of each Epoch are skipped; the fix code has been merged but not yet released. Before the fixed version is released, PSR will not deduct margin for this, and SAM will not count it as failing the online rate.
This is somewhat interesting, but I prefer to see it as a rule-level bonus rather than a catalyst for a small coin market. Exempting validators from blame on the client side helps stabilize participation expectations; exemption from deductions does not mean the problem disappears, and the emotional repair in the staking sector still lacks technical implementation.
I see that in highly volatile assets, opportunities often lie in emotional repricing, while the risk is reading "no penalty" as "problem solved" 👀. Next, I will keep an eye on the release of the fixed version and node performance, and I am not in a hurry to convert governance actions into reasons for price increases.Meta is raising $97.5 billion in one go, diluting existing shareholders first.
On Tuesday, Meta increased its common stock issuance from 22.5 billion to 25 billion shares, priced at $625 per share.
There are also preferred shares, with a follow-up phased issuance plan of up to 60 billion.
NVIDIA said it will subscribe for $3 billion, and AMD and Broadcom have also expressed interest.
In Q3, Meta's free cash flow turned negative, burning about $2.1 billion, the first time in over a decade.
I think this is neither good nor bad news; it's the AI arms race reaching the stage of equity financing.
Chipmakers are paying to buy their customers' stock, and customers then use that money to buy chips—this cycle deserves extra attention.
The $625 issuance price will be a very clear dividing line going forward.
If the price holds above $625 with volume, it means the market is willing to accept this dilution, and my caution would be wrong.
If it falls below the issuance price and can't stop, it means the funds are voting with their feet.
My approach is to observe and not chase, waiting for Wednesday's Fed decision and peer earnings reports before making a move.
What do you think about this financing: A) Confident in AI, or B) Cash is running low?
$META
#USStocks #Meta #AI #FederalReserveThe funding rate is so negative that the shorts are paying to dump the market; the more I look at this scene, the more familiar it feels.
Today, while checking the futures data, I saw something quite contradictory. The perpetual contract funding rate for $DOGE is negative, at -0.0008%, ranking as the most negative among mainstream assets.
What does a negative funding rate mean? It means that those shorting not only hope for the price to drop but also have to pay interest to the longs every eight hours out of their own pockets. When the price falls, shorts are still paying to maintain their positions.
What’s more subtle is another figure. In the 24-hour total liquidations across the network, DOGE’s short liquidations account for a significant portion. On Binance, the top traders’ long-short ratio remains above 2.6; no one is closing positions just because the price is hovering around 0.077.
An analysis on KuCoin put it quite bluntly: all assets are falling, but the perpetual futures market is making shorts pay longs. This combination of “price crash + negative funding rate” essentially fuels a short squeeze. I’m not saying a rally will happen immediately, but shorts bearing negative funding rates to push prices down—the longer they hold, the higher the cost. At the 0.077 level, those paying to dump the market usually can’t hold out for long. $80,000 is undergoing a test of "buy order quality." The simultaneous halt of ETF and Strategy means current support relies more on futures order books and retail funds rather than organized institutional backing. **$80,500, the logic of bottom formation can still continue; if $78,800 long positions are effectively liquidated, the mid-term pricing anchor may shift further downward.
· Right-side signal: It is necessary to see ETF resume sustained net inflows, Strategy restart buying, and price volume increase to hold above $80,500 to confirm the true recovery of support "thickness," rather than relying solely on order books.
· Deep observation zone: **$78,000 → $79,400 breach requires serious evaluation of the next range. $BTC $ETH $SOL #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Labubu also didn't escape the fate of NFT.
Pop Mart's Q3 revenue dropped 45% to 50% year-on-year, with the Americas down 70% to 75%, and Asia-Pacific down 65% to 70%;
Management also said that gross margin will decline further in the second half, with proactive price cuts overseas and continued store openings.
Translation: Small profits but quick turnover!
Meanwhile, Duan Yongping holds about 102 million shares, accounting for 8% of the shares,
with a cost of around HKD 150, current price HKD 132,
showing an unrealized loss of about HKD 1.846 billion, an unrealized loss ratio of about 12.07%.
I don't understand the logic behind continuously increasing positions in Pop Mart,
betting on another hit product?
But Labubu is still better than NFT in some ways,
when the hype fades, at least Jenny Jun still has a display window behind her,
and can still play with the cat when there's nothing else to do.
NFT? Can't even see it anymore.SpaceX has reached a $40 billion GPU financing lease agreement, indicating that massive capital is still flowing into computing power infrastructure. The risk appetite spillover indirectly supports the sentiment for established privacy coins like ZEC, but ZEC only rose 1.6% today, showing that funds have not truly tilted. I judge this as a weak rebound rather than a trend reversal. The contradiction lies in: the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are upward, the price at 1245.48 has risen 18% from the 4-hour low, but the top 10 order book buy orders are 552 versus sell orders 1749, with a strength ratio of 0.32. The sell-side order thickness is three times that of the buy side, and the funding rate of -0.0035% exposes shorts paying to short, with 119,000 coin-based positions not withdrawn. The short-term rally looks more like a bull trap. Strategically, aggressive traders can lightly short at the current price of 1245.48, with a stop loss set above 1268.35 and a target of 1212.65; conservative traders should wait for a pullback to 1212.65 without breaking before going long, with a stop loss at 1198.42 and a target of 1258.73. Single position size should not exceed 5% of total funds; in a negative funding rate environment, short positions need to guard against short squeeze pulses.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$ZEC #Meta launches $35 billion financing to support AI infrastructure
#SpaceX reaches $40 billion GPU financing lease agreement
$ZEC $Q midnight plunge! Dropped from 0.236 to 0.063, the bulls are really stunned this time!
Brothers, we were still talking about altcoin trends during the day, and at night Q directly put on a high dive show for everyone! The price smashed down from 0.236013 all the way to 0.062947. This is not a correction, it's like turning a roller coaster into free fall! Those wanting to bottom-fish, don't get excited yet; a big drop doesn't mean the bottom is reached.
From the chart, moving averages are clearly diverging downward, short-term bears dominate. The key support now is 0.062–0.063; if it doesn't hold, the price may continue to fall; resistance to face on the upside is 0.075–0.080.
Trading idea: If the rebound to around 0.075–0.080 is clearly resisted, consider light short positions, with a stop above 0.085; watch 0.060 below, breaking it calls for caution of further weakness.
After a crash, the most precious thing isn't the chips, but the patience to control your hands! Sister Luo doesn't rely on guessing the bottom to prove herself; if the signal hasn't appeared, don't rush in yet! #SpaceX达成400亿美元GPU融资租赁协议 The K-line has been stuck around 80,000 all day with little movement, but contract positions have been quietly increasing.....
OKX's BTC perpetual positions have increased by 5.4% in a day, yet the price has slightly dropped. The long-short account ratio is 2.27, with retail investors overwhelmingly going long, while large holders are more bearish. This kind of increasingly squeezed market is most afraid of a sudden sharp drop!?
FOMC will announce at 2 AM Thursday. I’m watching the 79,221 level; if it breaks below, I’ll exit first. I won’t rush to go long until it stands back above 80,845.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Ethereum is still in short supply!
Ethereum
:( Sometimes, in the crypto world, all it takes is one good trade.
I don't think I can sell them all :((
OG Wallet participated in the ICO, buying 100,000 ETH at $0.3 each, then transferred 1,500 ETH to Binance and Bybit.
About $3.6 million has been raised so far, with around 46,000 $ETH still for sale. The long upper shadow on the 21st was the most honest trade in this round of $DOOD. The moment it surged the most fiercely was also the moment of the most intense turnover, with chips passing from those chasing the price to those taking the position. The three consecutive bearish days afterward just slowly clarified this matter. I started shorting at 0.002253, standing not at the top, but at the inflection point where the previous mispricing began to be corrected.
A floating profit of 192.63% boils down to having the direction right once, with leverage making it look like a victory. But leverage never distinguishes right from wrong; it only amplifies. The mark price 0.002035 and the opening price are separated by more than nine points. These nine points are heavy under 20x leverage, yet light in front of a wick. The difference between professional and unprofessional lies precisely in whether you dare to admit that string of green numbers is not yet money.
The market is now stuck in an awkward place: bears control the rhythm, bulls hold the lower boundary. High points are gradually moving down, lows are stubbornly unbroken—a typical weak rebound continuation. The most dangerous in this situation are those who keep correcting back and forth, one bullish candle washes them out, then a bearish candle pulls them back.
I won’t add to my position, nor will I celebrate early just because the numbers look good. If the upper resistance is reclaimed with volume, I admit my mistake and exit; if the lower boundary is broken with volume and positions shrink simultaneously, that is the true conclusion of this trade. The rest of the time, quietness is more valuable than cleverness. $BTC $ETH #富兰克林邓普顿推出美股股息买BTC新型ETF BTC fell 2.43% last week, marking the third consecutive week of decline, breaking below the $82,500 support level and retesting the $80,000 mark. On the macro front, rising energy prices and inflation concerns are replacing AI financing issues as the main market risks. Bitcoin's recent movement is highly correlated with the Nasdaq and AI stocks, and ETF fund flows have started to show bidirectional fluctuations.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy statements will be key catalysts for Bitcoin's short-term trend. If Bitcoin fails to hold $80,000, the next support level is $76,000; if that breaks, the price could further decline toward the $70,000 range.
In the short term, BTC needs to reclaim the $82,000–$82,500 range to have a chance to resume its upward trend. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance, the market may reassess a December rate hike, pushing yields higher and increasing downward pressure on Bitcoin; if the policy stance leaves room for December decisions, it could create conditions for a Bitcoin rebound.
Currently, market directional confidence is insufficient, and caution remains ahead of the Fed decision and the release of U.S. Q3 GDP and September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. If the Fed signals dovishness but the subsequent PCE inflation data exceeds expectations, the market may sell off tech stocks due to renewed inflation pressure, dragging Bitcoin down. The institution emphasizes that it is not explicitly bearish at this time but remains cautious until Bitcoin reclaims $82,500.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Calculate it: Galaxy's net profit in Q3 improved by $408 million compared to the previous quarter, turning from a net loss of $85 million to a net profit of $323 million. From this financial report, I judge it to be somewhat positive, but the weight mainly lies in the company's operations and financing aspects, and it cannot be directly translated into the overall crypto market sentiment.
① Total assets at the end of the quarter were $16.4 billion, with cash, stablecoins, and U.S. Treasuries totaling $4.9 billion, about 30%. This gives me a bit more confidence in its liquidity buffer, although these asset types cannot all be considered as instantly spendable cash.
② Year-to-date, 9.8 million shares have been repurchased, and the board has authorized an additional $200 million for buybacks. For shareholders, this signals a willingness to return capital, but authorization does not equal execution, so I won’t count the authorized amount as actual buying volume.
③ The data center power project reserves exceed 5.7 GW, and a $3.5 billion senior secured notes issuance has been completed to fund the second phase of Helios I construction. Financing supports construction, but project reserves are not yet revenue; the ability to realize them later determines the significance of these numbers.
My habit is to separate profit, buybacks, and construction investments to avoid getting overwhelmed by several large figures stacked together. This turnaround is substantial, but since the report doesn’t break down profit sources, I’m more interested in whether profitability can be sustained and how project construction translates into operational results going forward.$VELO
Governance incentives can shape where liquidity flows across decentralized exchanges. Velodrome uses a model in which participants can lock tokens and vote on liquidity pools, linking governance decisions with fees and incentives. This creates an interesting economic feedback loop, but it also raises questions about reward dependence and voting concentration. Durable demand requires useful trading activity, not merely attractive emissions.Can the price of the $COMP governance token reflect improvements in protocol operations? It's necessary to separate the token's price movement from lending balances, net income, and value distribution after governance; a simple rebound does not prove business recovery. Changes in macro interest rates also affect lending demand and collateral risk. If income continuously improves and token equity is clear, then the discount has a basis for correction; if business and value capture remain weak, I would not be bullish just because of a large drop."A 3.19% buffer against the daily fluctuations of APR — this is the most dangerous aspect of this position."
APR 20x short, 0.0431→0.03271, +482.13%. Conversely: it only needs to rebound 3.19% for that 482% gain to vanish completely.
What does 3.19% mean on $APR? A normal wick, or even a large order surge on the order book. In other words, this position doesn’t require any positive news, trend reversal, or deliberate buying — just a technical rebound is enough to wipe it out.
20x leverage magnifies 24.13% into 482%, and likewise magnifies 3.19% into zero. It gives you the fastest profits, but also the shortest survival time.
The market itself is holding: the low points are moving downward. But the cost line above isn’t far away.
So I never decide to close based on "how much profit" I’ve made, only on how far it is from the cost line. 3.19% is too close.
Only one action: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, and don’t expand exposure further.20261027
6. Tesla and SpaceX to merge? Combined holdings of 30,221 bitcoins, about $2.5 billion
1. Elon Musk personally confirmed on SpaceX's earnings call that independent boards on both sides have each formed special committees, but terms have not been agreed upon. He also said: this matter may never be resolved
2. If it happens, the merged company would become the world's sixth-largest publicly listed bitcoin holder, behind Strategy and Metaplanet
3. In 2021, Tesla spent $1.5 billion buying bitcoin, but in 2022, due to liquidity issues, sold about 75%
SpaceX is the opposite, with a holding cost of about $661 million, and has barely moved. But its Q3 capital expenditure was $20 billion, with $16 billion invested in AI infrastructure; Q4 guidance: $35 billion to $40 billion
4. China accounts for about 20% of Tesla's revenue (Shanghai factory contributes more than half of global production), Starlink has no operating license in China, and SpaceX also does US defense work (US government business accounts for a significant portion).
JPMorgan calls this the "biggest obstacle," with a plan for Tesla's China business to become locally controlled.
5. Don't automatically see a larger combined holding as a bitcoin positive; what really needs attention is cash flow pressure and historical behavior 20261027
5. Circle CEO doesn't care about the coin price?
1. BTC price is falling, and when the Circle CEO was asked about it by reporters, he only replied: I don't really pay attention to how these digital commodities are traded. Interpretation: He doesn't care about the coin, he cares about the money.
A CEO of a stablecoin issuing company saying he doesn't care about the coin price sounds like a vegetable seller not looking at vegetable prices but focusing on making you spend money.
2. USDC is an electronic dollar, the world's second largest, with a market cap of about $72 billion.
3. AI agents will work and pay by themselves; in the future, not only people will spend money, but a program that can buy things on its own will need to carry its own wallet, so money for machines is needed.
4. Circle launched the Arc chain in September, with about $740 million USDC already on-chain, but its security is questionable.
5. The US OCC is setting rules for stablecoins, simply put, there are three points:
(1) The deposited money must be backed by equivalent cash and government bonds.
(2) If you want to redeem dollars, you get every cent within two business days.
(3) No interest is given.
6. "Bipartisan consensus"? The Clarity Act didn't even pass the Senate.
7. Regulation implementation + banks entering + giants joining
Circle obtained the first digital currency banking license in the US in July; banks are starting to compete, 21 institutions have formed a coalition to issue stablecoins, and Binance invested $100 million in September.On the same day, the two ETFs moved in opposite directions. The main players are $BTC and $ETH. The $BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of about $110.34 million. The $ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of about $88.58 million. The total net inflow of the four mainstream ETFs that day was about $9.92 million. The money hasn't disappeared; it just changed places.
The details are even more interesting. The entire $BTC amount came from BlackRock's IBIT. Other firms made no moves that day. On the $ETH side, BlackRock's ETHA accounted for the majority, about $104.71 million. Fidelity's FETH actually had an inflow of about $16.13 million. The same institution was buying with one hand and selling with the other. $ETH has already seen over $1.1 billion outflow in October, the largest monthly outflow this year.
Price-wise, the two are not in sync. $BTC is currently around $79,900, still hovering near the $80,000 mark. $ETH is around $2,310, down about 4.26% over 7 days and about 14.27% over 30 days. Watching this pair feels like two people going out together, one heading left and the other right, both insisting they're not wrong.
So this article won't discuss direction, only divergence. $BTC is seeing its first day of inflow. $ETH is experiencing outflow again. The next point to watch is whether the outflow continues into a second day or if it’s just a one-day turnover.The real trigger this week is not the rate decision itself, but the combined risk of "strong data + hawkish statements." The market is almost certain that the October FOMC will hold steady, so the decision itself is no surprise; all the suspense lies in every word Powell says at 2:30 AM and the core PCE data at 8:30 PM. 📊 Let's look at the timeline: rate decision announced at 2:00 AM, press conference at 2:30 AM. The unchanged rate is fully priced in; what really moves funds is the wording—if Powell admits inflation is easing and leaves the door open for future rate cuts, the Nasdaq and memory sectors will immediately be pushed by capital; if he continues to emphasize inflation volatility and delays rate cuts, high-valuation names like $SOXL and $SNDK will be the first to come under pressure. The same press conference, two different wordings, two directions. Next, look at the 8:30 PM GDP and core PCE. GDP is like a thermometer; if it's too strong, the market will believe "the economy can hold up, no need to rush rate cuts"; core PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed cares most about. If PCE is higher than expected, rate cut expectations cool down, and US tech stocks are prone to sell-offs; if PCE is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous value, rate cut expectations heat up, and growth stocks gain upward momentum. This is not abstract logic but the most direct capital switch this week. The key second-level insight is here: Hynix's earnings just came out, and the memory industry is in a "race to reverse" phase; fundamentals have already delivered answers, but for the industry to break out of the big trend, it cannot bypass the Fed's macro gate. Earnings are the industry's foundation, but rates and inflation are the market's access control. No matter how solid the foundation is, 🔥 BTC is increasingly resembling US tech stocks! As the Nasdaq weakens, the crypto market also finds it hard to stay unaffected!
🔴 Strengthened correlation: The correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq has recently risen, indicating that their short-term trends may align again. However, correlation is dynamic; a 0.5–0.6 correlation does not mean every rise or fall is synchronized, nor does it directly prove that Nasdaq determines BTC's trend.
🟠 Core reason: Institutions are gradually including BTC in their risk asset allocations. When AI tech stocks face sell-offs, inflation exceeds expectations, or rate cut expectations cool down, capital may simultaneously reduce risk exposure; conversely, strong tech earnings reports and improved market sentiment can also drive crypto assets to rebound.
🟢 Macro key factors: Federal Reserve policies, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields are important variables linking US stocks and the crypto market. Spot BTC ETFs make traditional capital inflows and outflows more convenient and may also strengthen short-term correlation.
🔵 Personal judgment: When analyzing BTC going forward, don’t just focus on candlestick charts; also observe Nasdaq trends, ETF capital flows, and key support levels. If US stocks continue to weaken, BTC’s rebound may also face pressure; if Nasdaq stabilizes and capital returns, the market has a better chance to improve.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Correlation does not equal causation. BTC still has its own supply-demand and news-driven factors. Do not blindly open positions based solely on Nasdaq’s rise or fall!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH $SOL #Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? What should we look at for $AAVE lending demand recovery, not just total locked value? Collateral price increases can raise TVL but don't necessarily mean more borrowing; utilization, net revenue, and bad debt are closer indicators of business quality. If volatility rises after the FOMC, liquidation risk will also increase accordingly. If borrowing and fees continue to improve and bad debt is controlled, I will turn positive; if revenue weakens and risk exposure expands, TVL cannot be used to cover up problems.Solana's "double deflation" proposal has been historically approved, but the price of SOL has fallen instead of rising at the $100 mark. This reveals a harsh reality: when macro liquidity tightens, even the most attractive long-term benefits are ignored in the short term.
$SOL is reported at $100.11 (-1.73%). The proposal doubles the annual inflation reduction rate, bringing the terminal inflation forward to 2029, combined with massive net inflows into ETFs, making the long-term logic solid. However, it is currently caught between "all good news priced in" and "macro headwinds," with short-term pricing power still dependent on BTC's mood.
$BTC is reported at $79,860.1, firmly defending the $80,000 level. Reflation concerns suppress risk appetite, and rate cut expectations have cooled; meanwhile, spot ETFs are seeing large outflows, and Coinbase premiums remain negative. If BTC breaks down, altcoins will struggle to fare well.
$DOGE is reported at $0.0772. Spot ETFs have recently seen net outflows, and institutions remain cautious. Meme coins heavily rely on sentiment and incremental funds, and in a risk-off mode, their "high elasticity" can easily reverse into "high vulnerability."
[Summary] The dilemmas of the three differ: SOL is "born at the wrong time," BTC is "holding firm against macro pressures," and DOGE is experiencing "capital withdrawal." It is recommended to wait for the Federal Reserve decision and macro clearing before the market re-prices SOL's scarcity.
#Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 $SOXL This rebound is not because the bulls won, but because the shorts ran first. The price bounced from 77.99 to 94.44, while open interest actually decreased by 3.3%.
1. In the past 24 hours, liquidations on OKX were almost one-sided: the 141,000 USD range from 94.44 to 95.38 was all shorts, while the 23,000 USD range from 87.83 to 88.77 had only 14,000 USD longs. The bulls basically took no hits.
2. Typical short covering: price rises, open interest falls, liquidations concentrated on the short side, and buying comes from closing positions rather than new money. The 4-hour EMA20 is at 88.41, and the price is already above it; EMA60 is at 94.15, right overhead. This is a triple-leveraged daily reset instrument, so sideways movement means loss—turnover is 10.13 times, ATR 4.24%.
3. This Wednesday, the FOMC meeting overlaps with the tech earnings window (Cointelegraph, 10-26), which will decide whether this short covering turns into a trend or stalls at EMA60. The key observation points are only 77.99 and 94.15.
If I were a bull, I would argue: the shorts have been fully cleared, EMA20 is turning up, and 77.99 forms a double bottom. The premise is that open interest rebounds—without new positions, the buying from covering will run out.
So the question is not whether it can hold above 94.15, but how many of these longs are truly new money with real capital? #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ [Three disclosures each worth 30 seconds: two quarterly reports, one obscure 13G/A]
Every earnings season, the highest information density isn't in the headlines but in the corners of the disclosure calendar. On October 26, three documents each deserve about 30 seconds.
Two are quarterly reports: Cincinnati Financial (CINF) and Brown & Brown (BRO). The former is a property and casualty insurance company; the key focus is the combined ratio—below 100% means underwriting itself is profitable. Recently, the US property and casualty insurance industry has been pressured by catastrophe losses and reinsurance rate squeezes, making underwriting profit margins a sector-wide issue. CINF serves as a sample to observe how this pressure transmits. The latter is an insurance brokerage firm whose business model relies on mergers and acquisitions combined with organic growth; the focus is whether the organic growth has been diluted after consolidation. Neither company is a traffic star, but both are commonly used as reference anchors in institutional pricing.
The third is more obscure: Optimum Communications filed a 13G/A. A 13G is a statutory disclosure requirement under US securities law for shareholders holding more than 5%. The "/A" at the end indicates an amendment—meaning a major shareholder has increased or decreased holdings, or there has been a change in shareholder identity. These documents contain no performance figures but are the standard window to observe changes in shareholder structure; institutional inflows and outflows often leave traces here first.
Many people face hundreds of announcements daily and don't know where to start. The practical approach is: you don't have to read every document, but you need to know what "priceable information" the market has added each day—these three documents are part of what was added on October 26. Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$HUMA large trade costs decrease simultaneously. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100,000 scale drops from 1.86%/1.75% to 1.39%/1.55%. Comparing adjacent windows, execution constraints are relaxing.
$CAP small trade costs on both sides are close, large buy orders are more expensive. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 10,000 scale is 0.12%/0.13%, for 100,000 scale is 1.31%/0.77%. Asymmetry not visible at 10,000 scale, exposed at 100,000 scale.
$IRYS large buy order costs decrease. Simulated buy slippage for 100,000 scale drops from 1.10% to 0.91%. Depth improves, feasibility of large orders increases.The same batch of funds is holding alone on BTC while retreating on ETH — this divergence says more than the FOMC itself.
Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $110 million last night, but all came from a single leading product, with all other products showing zero inflow or outflow. On the same day, Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of $88.6 million, with one product alone accounting for $105 million, setting a new single-day outflow record for that product. Same direction, two faces.
$BTC around 79,700. The leading product ended the combined $770 million outflow over the previous two days, but the ETF still had a net outflow of about $200 million for the entire month of October. 79,200 is the low point tested twice, and the 50-day moving average above is near 80,700; if it can't reclaim that level, it remains in correction.
$ETH around 2,310. That product's single-day outflow set a record, while another product bucked the trend with an inflow of $16 million, but it was insignificant. 2,300 is the most critical support right now, and pressure on the ETF side has not eased.
$SOL around 100. ETFs had a net outflow of $8.23 million yesterday, with two products outflowing $7.22 million and $1.82 million respectively. The $100 level is repeatedly tested, with buying continuously absent.
In short: There is a 90% probability that the FOMC will hold steady, but PCE expectations have risen year-over-year to 3.6%. BTC's ETF is supported by one product, ETH is dragged by the same type of product, and SOL's buying is absent. Money is not panicking, but it hasn't returned either.
For market record only, not investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC Vanguard, the very one whose founder told you to avoid Bitcoin like the plague and then shut down its own platform's purchase gateway for nearly two years after the Bitcoin ETF launched.
Now it's been exposed for buying shares in the Japanese Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet, and most likely not by its own choice, but forced by index components.
Retail investors have been shut out from buying the ETF for almost two years; yet Vanguard can get exposure by circumventing the index.
The suits aren't avoiding Bitcoin; they just don't want you to get it on your own terms. The exposure is theirs, but they won't hand you the steering wheel.$BTC in these few hours this afternoon, the market mainly plays a schizophrenic torment. BTC repeatedly tests around 80,000, ETH does sit-ups around 2325. It looks like not much movement, but underneath it's all drama.
Retail investors are "holding on," whales are "pulling back." On the BTC side, retail investors moved 10.75 billion to exchanges in 30 days, a six-month high; meanwhile, whale funds shrank from 5.9 billion to 3.8 billion. ETH is even more painful, retail long-short ratio still hangs at 2.46, whales' short position ratio is 53.56%, and some big holders even went 5x fully short.
Funding rates are both positive, prices are sliding down, retail investors are still paying fees to hold positions.
This afternoon, retail investors are holding the flag, whales are closing umbrellas. The romance of standing with retail investors usually ends in liquidation.Over 300 million in net profit, Galaxy Digital delivered a strong quarter.
But what really stands out is the line after that: total power reserve for data centers expanded to over 5.7 gigawatts ⚡
Cash plus stablecoins plus U.S. Treasuries, 4.9 billion; total shareholders' equity, 3 billion.
Using 4.9 billion to build out the power grid — that's not something a brokerage should be doing.
3.5 billion USD senior secured notes to fund Helios I Phase II; on the other hand, they repurchased 9.8 million shares this year, and the board approved another 200 million quota.
Crypto brokerages are starting to look like power real estate developers.
$BTC
$ETH 对于$ETH 来说，财库公司BitMine停止买入，短期无疑是利空。
目前距离5%的持有目标，还差58067枚。也就是还有四五周的时间就会停止买入，市场已经在为这个转折定价了。
但是长期来看，5%的总量被锁定，筹码集中度提升，卖盘更少。而且，Bitmine的重心会转向质押收益和业务扩展。其他机构和资金看到收益，也会成为潜在的买盘。
最终以太坊会从单纯的买币叙事，转向持币收益叙事。
$BTC $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 **$ETH Smart Money Analysis: Why Are Large Traders Still Holding Their Positions?** Let’s break down the latest $ETH smart money data and see what the positioning tells us. **Current $ETH Market Data** - ETH Price: $2,320 - Funding Rate: 0.0050% - Smart Money Traders: 2,329 - Reported Long-Short Ratio: 24.03% **🐂 Long Smart Money** - Traders: 842 - Position Value: $363.55M USDT - Average Entry Price: $2,821 - Unrealized P&L: -$78.4572M - Profit Ratio: 32.06% Long positions are carrying subst$BTC The US and Iran are holding consultations on a navigation plan for the Strait of Hormuz. The market has quickly digested the tail-end panic premium related to the blockade and supply cut fears, causing international oil prices to fall accordingly. However, this is only a framework discussion; the two sides have not reached consensus on core issues such as nuclear matters and regional security. The navigation plan has not yet been implemented and there is a risk of reversals at any time. This round of oil price decline is more a withdrawal of geopolitical risk premiums and does not indicate a weakening of the fundamental trend. Weaker crude oil prices will indirectly ease inflationary pressures, giving the Federal Reserve some policy space, which is favorable for US Treasuries and risk assets; if negotiations break down and friction in the strait resumes, oil prices could quickly rebound and inflation expectations would rise again. The market remains in a high volatility window, so it is unwise to simply bet on a continuous decline in oil prices. The market carries risks, and the above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $UNI The main force behind this market has long been secretly withdrawing funds.
Capital flow has been marked red across the board for half a month straight, with big players moving at least 130 million worth of assets into their wallets.
Buyback and burn is just for show; the real story is the sustained cashing out over the long cycle.
The selling pressure hasn't fully played out yet; entering now to catch the falling knife is simply providing liquidity to the market makers.
The bulls are completely holding on by force; a breakdown is just a matter of time.
#UNI
$UNI
👇All financial media are writing about the Anthropic IPO drama, and perhaps many friends are still hesitating whether to chase the high chip stocks, which is a narrow perspective. Spend three minutes following Ajian to analyze it from a Crypto angle, and maybe you'll have a more complete framework to judge this matter. First, let's look at the investment exposures around the unlisted AI companies in recent days, and what products the industry has created to compete for the chance to get in:
First is OKX's Pre-IPO X-Perps, offering up to 10x leverage cash-settled contracts to eligible users in the European Economic Area. What you buy is not Anthropic stock, nor do you have IPO allocation rights; it's just a derivative exposure to the company's valuation changes. The risks include not only leverage liquidation but also the lack of a public stock price as an anchor, so the contract price may deviate from the final IPO pricing;
Second is trade.xyz's ANT pre-market perpetual, which tracks the price exposure of Anthropic's proposed Class A shares but does not grant real equity, dividends, or voting rights. Worth noting is the basis risk: without directly tradable spot stock, the contract price may not smoothly converge to the final issuance price, and the specific post-listing conversion arrangements depend on the contract terms;
Third is Ondo Finance's OpenAI pre-IPO tokenized notes, planned to be open for subscription to eligible private clients. This path differs from perpetual contracts but also does not equal direct ownership of unlisted shares. The issuer, contract rights, liquidity, and exit arrangements are all risks that need to be studied. This product corresponds to OpenAI, but because the nodes are close and the processes differ, Ajian places it here for comparison.
These three products represent three different participation paths but all face one problem: the underlying stock lacks a mature public market price as an anchor since it is not yet publicly traded. The product's trading price may be influenced by the previous financing valuation, private market transactions, market sentiment, and specific contract mechanisms. It does not equal the company's final IPO pricing, nor does it guarantee the true market value after listing.
Finally, if Ajian were to invest, first is always position management, and secondly, I would rank these three types of products by the certainty of the exit path rather than the upside potential. Understanding exactly what you are buying is far more important than guessing how much it will rise after listing.
That's all, DYOR #Anthropic officially files for IPO, potentially setting a record for listing valuation If you put this week's ETF inflows and outflows alongside whale accumulation on the same derivatives table, which side would you watch first? Do you see a return of buying pressure, or is leverage quietly rotating? Over the past two days, I've overlaid spot ETF, institutional holdings, and perpetual contract data, and the most intuitive feeling is: the surface is warming up, but the foundation is a bit fragile. The US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $301 million this week, ending several consecutive weeks of outflows; BlackRock's IBIT saw a weekly inflow of $565.7 million, but on one day it gave back $635.6 million, with a rhythm like a small roller coaster. On the other side, Saylor's Strategy holds over 848,000 BTC, accounting for more than 4% of total supply, and recently added 267 BTC at an average price of $82,900; Grant Cardone bought $800,000 worth, and Strive raised holdings to 36,818 BTC. With these numbers laid out, institutional base holdings haven't loosened, but the marginal buying on the ETF side is clearly struggling. What concerns me more is the derivatives layer. Spot has support, but ETFs have large ins and outs, which usually means short-term funds are expressing views through perpetuals and options rather than simply moving spot. As long as funding rates remain positive and open interest hasn't clearly cleared, prices moving up are prone to pullbacks after long squeezes; conversely, if funding rates fall and OI contracts shrink during a decline, it indicates leverage is being washed out, making subsequent upward moves cleaner. Simply put, the market is now trading more on the expectation of "whether leverage can hold" rather than "whether ETFs will keep buying" #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
$SKHYNIX SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report is due tomorrow morning, and I am betting on exceeding expectations.
AI server demand is still growing, but what is more easily overlooked is that traditional DRAM prices are also rising. There is demand for high-end memory, and ordinary DRAM prices are also improving. With both driving growth, profit elasticity might be greater than the market expects.
So this time, I am focusing less on whether HBM4 can tell a new story, and more on how much profit the existing business can actually contribute. My judgment is that the market may be underestimating the impact of storage price increases on this quarter's performance. Is Wall Street starting to buy the dip? $BTC has been drifting sideways and down for a month, but ETF funds are quietly flowing back!
What’s worth paying attention to recently is not just where BTC has fallen to, but that institutional fund sentiment is changing.
1️⃣ ETF funds are warming up
Previously, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw continuous outflows, but recently signs of fund inflows have appeared. If net inflows continue, it indicates institutional demand may be recovering, which is an important signal to watch for a possible market rebound.
2️⃣ After a month of decline, the rebound window is worth watching
BTC has experienced a sustained pullback, and market sentiment has clearly cooled. After selling pressure gradually eases, once buyers re-enter, a rebound could come faster than expected. What’s missing now might be a catalyst to drive market sentiment.
3️⃣ Two macro signals can’t be ignored
Focus next on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and PCE inflation data. If policy expectations and inflation data lean positive, market risk appetite may recover; otherwise, the market may remain volatile.
4️⃣ How to view BTC’s key levels?
On the upside, watch $82,500 and $84,000 as resistance zones that need to be broken for a rebound; on the downside, pay attention to $80,000 and $78,000. If support holds, the rebound has a foundation for further development.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 This round of market turbulence has cost many high-leverage long positions dearly. According to the 24-hour contract liquidation data, BTC and ETH combined liquidations exceeded 53.96 million U, with long position liquidations higher than short positions. However, when narrowed down to the most recent 4 hours, the liquidation scale is actually larger for ETH, a detail worth noting. 📊 Let's first look at the key data: 🟠 BTC: Long positions suffered the most 24-hour total liquidation: 31.5463 million U Long position liquidation: 18.3694 million U Short position liquidation: 13.1769 million U Long positions account for about 58.2%, the largest liquidation amount among the three coins. 🔵 ETH: Both longs and shorts are under pressure 24-hour total liquidation: 22.4190 million U Long position liquidation: 12.2251 million U Short position liquidation: 10.1939 million U Notably, ETH liquidation in the last 4 hours was 2.2953 million U, higher than BTC's 1.6024 million U. 🟣 CORE: Liquidations concentrated in longs 24-hour total liquidation: 4,423.20 U All from long positions, no short position liquidations, but the overall amount is small. 💡 My observation: The biggest highlight of this data set is not simply the liquidation of long positions, but the difference in liquidation intensity across different time periods. BTC losses are greater over the 24-hour dimension, while ETH stands out more in the recent 4 hours. Liquidation data only reflects leverage liquidations that have already occurred and cannot directly predict the market's next rise or fall. I am more focused on whether the price can stabilize after liquidation and whether new buying interest emerges #SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? $HYPE trading activity is rising, but is value capture sufficient to support the valuation? Derivatives platforms' revenue depends on trading volume and risk management. When volatility increases, revenue may rise, but it also brings liquidation, regulatory, and concentration risks. If fees and buyback mechanisms are transparent and sustainable, token support is more credible; if growth relies solely on high-leverage trading, revenue and price may decline simultaneously when the market cools down. Over the past month, Wall Street has quietly changed its appetite.
Chip stocks were sold off, while essentials were bought. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 12% in a month, with a maximum drawdown close to 15%. Yet, the S&P 500 itself fell less than 1%. Strange? Not really—the index is being carried by big tech like Nvidia, while most stocks are actually rising.
The equal-weighted S&P rose 2.5%, while the regular S&P fell 0.9%. September was still dominated by the giants, but in October, the ordinary stocks led by four points. Such a monthly reversal is rare even when looking back to 1990.
$SPY
Where did the money go? Energy rose 13%, daily consumer goods rose 9%. Pools, RVs, yachts—things no one mentioned before, all performed well last week.
$QQQ
Now we’re stuck in a midterm election year. Historically, this year is the weakest for the stock market, but late October often marks a temporary low; in the year following the election, the S&P has risen 19 times. However, in 2018, it kept falling until Christmas before bottoming out, so these patterns are only references, not signals.
$NVDA
In short: it’s not necessarily that AI is over, but more like a style shift—from a few giants to a broader market. Going forward, focus on two things: whether it can hold by month-end, and whether chips will continue to drag.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH Iran seeks peace, is the bull market back?
Lulu will break down this news step by step for everyone:
1. The current deadlock: no formal full-scale war, but both sides are probing and clashing, with the Strait of Hormuz constantly at risk of being blocked, causing the market to add a high risk premium to oil prices.
2. Iran does not want a prolonged standoff with the US; a ceasefire comes with conditions. The US must meet Iran's demands and guarantee the interests of Iran and its resistance front, not a one-sided compromise.
3. Establishing a regionally led order: Iran does not want the US or other external powers to dominate Middle East rules. It hopes local Middle Eastern countries can negotiate security arrangements themselves, which is a long-term strategic goal for Iran.
This is just a starting signal for diplomatic talks, not a ceasefire agreement. Iran has signaled willingness to end the deadlock, but the prerequisite is that the US accepts Iran's demands.
Currently, it is still negotiations with no confirmed ceasefire. The key is to watch the US side's statements #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $IRYS $ETH $BTC got liquidated
I didn't sleep all night yesterday, only went to bed at 4 a.m. Many friends are trading this IRYS, basically an 80/20 split, 20% are making money, 80% are losing, it's really tough. $90,000 got liquidated, almost half a year's investment all sunk into this coin. Yesterday, the whale wanted to liquidate the big holders, so it surged straight up, giving many people a chance. People thought it would be like usual, with a wick and then a drop, but this coin seems to have no intention of turning back, it kept pushing upwards. Only after hitting 0.4 and liquidating the big holders on various exchanges did it finally come down. Now it's still consolidating with a hat trick sideways move, really can't figure out the whale's mind 🧠. As for myself, these past two days, I cut losses on ETH. I don't want to hold anymore, this structure clearly broke the range, I don't see room to go up, the rebound is weak, but there's plenty of chips below. If I were the whale, I would definitely use the current environment to probe the chips below. I don't want to take such a big risk, plus there's a Fed decision on the 29th, who can say for sure? Small funds can't withstand big volatility, that's the truth. So I protect my principal, don't gamble on unclear markets, only trade what I understand..$BTC The US and Iran have held consultations on the navigation plan for the Strait of Hormuz. The market has quickly digested the tail-end panic premium related to the blockade and supply cut fears, leading to a decline in international oil prices. However, this was only a framework discussion; the two sides have not reached consensus on core issues such as nuclear matters and regional security. The navigation plan has not yet been implemented and there is a risk of reversals at any time. This round of oil price decline is more a withdrawal of geopolitical risk premium and does not indicate a weakening of the fundamental trend. Weaker crude oil prices will indirectly ease inflationary pressures, giving the Federal Reserve some policy space, which is favorable for US Treasuries and risk assets. If negotiations break down and tensions in the strait flare up again, oil prices could quickly rebound, and inflation expectations would rise again. The market remains in a high volatility window, so it is unwise to simply bet on a continuous decline in oil prices. The market carries risks; the above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落