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$BEAT manipulation by the whales is as simple as breathing, those holding short positions without exiting are regretting it.
I mentioned yesterday that tokens would unlock on November 1st, increasing market circulation. The whales will definitely use this wave to pump and dump, but the large amount of trapped positions above won't allow the price to rise too high, just around the range I predicted.
Taking both long and short positions is also a common tactic of the whales. You can see in the chart that the same address related to the project team is selling off in batches, so BEAT has a pullback trend, and the short positions are also taken advantage of accordingly.
Currently, that related address is buying back, and with volume increasing from hourly to daily charts, it is predicted that the whales are preparing a second wave of pump. This wave is expected to break the previous high again from 0.08607 to 0.095-0.1 (this is conservative; I feel it might return near 0.12).
Therefore, short positions should exit, and long positions shine again. I suggest those entering the market pay attention to position management and keep reserves for averaging down.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Tom was declaring the bull market officially underway on Monday, yet BitMine bought just 10,452 $ETH last week, worth $24.5M at an average price of $2,344, while spending around $46M on share buybacks.
It’s now only 58,000 $ETH away from its 5% supply target, but this slowdown has delayed progress a little.
Still, maybe this gives the E-Guardians five more weeks to mentally prepare! 🤪
#BTCETFFlowSwings Trading BTC, the biggest fear isn't missing the bottom, but thinking the bull market is back just after a few days of rebound.
Look at the recent ETF fund flows.
On October 19, there was a net inflow of about $527 million, and on the 21st, another inflow of about $525 million.
But on the 22nd, about $636 million flowed out at once, and on the 23rd, another $138 million flowed out.
Money comes fast and goes fast too.
So don't rush to chase the price just because of a large inflow in one day. ETF capital entering doesn't mean the market will immediately reverse.
I've been through several bull and bear cycles, and now I value one thing more: making a wrong judgment isn't scary, but making a wrong judgment and loading up your position fully is the real trouble.
I'd rather earn a little less and wait for both capital and price to give signals.
Market opportunities are always there, but once the principal is lost, it's not that easy to earn it back.
When you trade BTC now, do you start with a small position to test the waters, or wait for a clear trend before entering?
#BTC Terrifying, absolutely terrifying, looking at the current trend.
This wave of correction is really on a high level.
$ETH has rolled down all the way from the high of 2527, without even a decent rebound in between.
It's completely a one-sided slow bleeding meat grinder market.
The EMA5, 10, and 20 moving averages above the head form an impenetrable air defense net, tightly trapping the bulls underneath, not even leaving a gap to catch a breath.
Every time you think it has bottomed out, it reverses and smashes out a new low, now directly approaching 2300!
The scariest thing is not the crash itself, but this kind of chronic bleeding torture.
The overall funding environment is extremely tight, and the interest rate hike meeting feels like a huge stone pressing on the chest.
This is the cruelest truth of the financial market.
Back when I failed in my startup and was burdened with millions in debt, I had already experienced this suffocating feeling of being gradually driven to the edge by the trend.
So I don’t bet on the bottom; I only follow the trend.
My profit has already doubled, breaking through 101.71%!
From 2568 all the way down to now, how many times have I been tempted by fake rebounds?
This is discipline.
The 2300 level is by no means a solid bottom; this level of correction is aimed at breaking through retail investors’ psychological defenses.
The real abyss is still ahead.
$BTC
$SOL
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ BTC is repeatedly testing $80,000, but ETF funds are like a "split personality." What the hell are we supposed to be watching?
(1/6) Brothers who have been watching the market recently should feel a strong sense of division.
On one side, BTC is stuck in a dilemma around $80,000, with the 10-year US Treasury yield high, suppressing risk appetite; on the other side, the capital flow in spot ETFs is as erratic as a "split personality disorder."
Peeling back the emotions, let's talk about the underlying logic of the current market with data.
(2/6) First, look at a set of strange data:
Last week, the overall net inflow of BTC spot ETFs was about $301 million, seemingly warming up; but the cumulative net outflow in October is still $314 million. Even more absurd, a few days ago BlackRock (IBIT) set a record for single-day inflow this year (about $665 million), but just a few days later, the entire ETF market saw a massive single-day outflow of $635 million.
Conclusion: Institutions haven't fled, but the divergence is huge, all engaging in very short-term swing trading.
It's a real, hard-fought battle.
(3/6) Who is draining BTC's liquidity?
Oil prices surged, AI concept stocks pulled back, and US Treasury yields oscillated at high levels. Against this backdrop, big money is essentially jumping back and forth between "risk aversion" and "FOMO on the sidelines."
BTC now is like a sandwich cookie; technically, it still holds above the 50-week moving average, but with any slight macro tremor, the psychological support at $80,000 has to be repeatedly tested. Galaxy Research Bullish Outlook: Now Is the Best Time to Buy $BTC!
Key points from the research report:
1. Technicals Confirm Recovery: BTC holds above the 200-week moving average, after a 44-week correction, it has reclaimed the 50-week moving average. The maximum drawdown this cycle is 53%, the shallowest bear market in history, and the halving cycle has surpassed previous bottom windows.
2. Selling Pressure Is Disappearing: Coins held for over 5 years have seen their monthly transfer volume nearly halved compared to 2024. Macro speculators and basis arbitrage funds have cut ETF and futures exposure by more than half, but long-term holders and institutional base positions remain solid.
3. Institutions Are Still Accumulating: Spot ETFs have increased holdings by about 87,000 BTC since the end of June. Even though the price previously dropped by a maximum of 53%, ETF holdings only fell 11% from peak to trough, indicating substantial capital has not exited.
4. Stronger Currency Depreciation Logic: U.S. debt has surpassed $40 trillion, the annual fiscal deficit is close to $2 trillion, and the 10-year Treasury yield once exceeded 5%. Massive debt, interest burdens, and credit expansion driven by AI investment make BTC, with its fixed supply, more attractive in the long term.
5. Market Sentiment Near Historical Bottom: In 2015 and 2018, Wall Street was enthusiastic about blockchain but neglected Bitcoin, which was then followed by major BTC rallies. Today, stablecoins, RWA, and stock tokenization are booming, but Bitcoin search interest has dropped to multi-year lows, a familiar scenario reemerging.The $80,000 level is being contested repeatedly; the most dangerous scenario might not be breaking below it, but rather this kind of false rebound.
What I’m more cautious about now is not BTC touching $80,000 again, but that as soon as the price stands back there, everyone treats it as a reversal. The 24-hour high is about $80,850, the low about $79,456, and the current price is near $80,000; this only indicates the price is tugging within a range and does not prove that buyers have taken control.
I break confirmation into two steps: first, see if it can close back above around $80,850, not just spike through intraday; second, see if it can hold near $80,000 on a pullback and form a higher low. Only if both happen does the rebound have a chance to upgrade from a "fill-in" to a structural repair. If it only briefly stands above $80,000 and then falls back into the range, with rebound highs getting lower each time, it looks more like bears using the rebound to shake out positions, and chasing in risks hitting selling pressure.
Conversely, don’t immediately assume a waterfall drop just because it can’t hold above. If the range low near $79,456 holds and selling pressure weakens, BTC may continue to consolidate; only a decisive break below this area with a failed rebound signals rebound failure and increased downside risk. My focus is not on whether $80,000 breaks or not, but whether there is follow-through after a breakout and whether the pullback is supported. Until I see these two, I don’t treat a sharp rally as a trend reversal nor rush to bet on one side.
$BTC #OKXOrbitTopicIsHere #OrbitDaily I'm a bit reluctant to chase this ETH short position anymore. The Delta between whales and retail has narrowed to -0.295; it was -1.2 at the deepest point this month, and previously around -0.35. The price hasn't really risen much, but the difference has been steadily moving back. It looks like the shorts are starting to pull back, but just from this line alone, it's unclear how many shorts have been closed or if any longs have been opened.
The troublesome part is, ETH is still at 2315, and the 15-minute 20 moving average at 2321 hasn't been reclaimed. Damn, looking at the data makes me want to buy, but looking at the candlesticks makes me want to pull back. If I force it now, going up near 2330 means running into those who just sold earlier, which is uncomfortable to hold. I'd rather see it rise back to 2325 first, then pull back to observe; even if it's a few bucks more expensive, at least I won't be waiting to break even right after buying.
If I really try, I'll only put in a small amount. If it drops below 2305 again, I won't stick around; I don't want to risk principal again at 2296. If it can bounce back to 2335, I'll probably take some profit first and then see about the remaining at 2344. The most tempting thing right now is the phrase "whales are about to turn bullish," which always makes me feel like a big green candle is coming next. But after waiting with a long position for a long time, what might come first is 2300 again.ETH is still grinding downwards, but the whale and retail Delta have narrowed from -0.35 earlier to -0.295 now; earlier this month it was at -1.2. The difference is moving closer to the zero line, yet the price hasn't followed. Holding long positions while looking at this data makes it really easy to hesitate to cut losses. But relying solely on this line, it's still uncertain whether big players are reducing shorts or retail positions have changed, and we definitely can't directly call the downtrend over.
Currently ETH is at 2315, the 15-minute 20 moving average is at 2321, it bounced up to around 2330 this morning but was sold down again. For now, I don't want to rush into longs just because the indicators are improving. I'm more interested in watching the 2320–2325 range; if it bounces back but can't hold, there might be a small short opportunity. Damn, selling directly at 2315 feels too low, and below that 2300 and 2296 are close by, so if I short in there, I’d have to consider closing the position quickly. If I do go for it, I will exit above 2335—I don't want to face a rebound caused by whales reducing shorts and stubbornly hold on.
This set of data makes me less greedy for short profits, but it's still not enough for me to flip to long. First, let's see if ETH can reclaim 2321; I don't want the indicators to turn positive while the price is still below the moving average. If it can really hold above 2335, then I'll seriously consider going long. For now, I won't try to guess the bottom for it.A person only needs to catch two bull markets in their lifetime, but precisely because there are only two, many people have already lost the money they made in the first round before the second round even begins.
There was a detail in that post that left a deep impression on me: turning 50,000 principal into 10 million is 200 times, which is impossible by doing short-term trades every day; you can only wait for that continuous trend during the bull market, rolling up floating profits by adding positions. Fu Haitang back then went all in with 50,000 on cotton and made 120 million, following this path.
But the latter part is even more ruthless. He said he now only uses 2 to 3 million USDT for contracts, divides the rest of the money into three parts: one part buys wealth management and funds, one part buys high-dividend bank stocks, and one part is kept to buy broad-based ETFs during crashes; he also bought 10 million in insurance.
The logic is actually very simple: one-tenth of the money is used to gamble on excess returns, and nine-tenths is used to take the market average returns. The winnings from the gamble are then recycled back as ammunition for the gamble.
The worst-case scenario is that the contract account loses everything, but life goes on; the best case is multiple times the returns, elevating the lifestyle. He said that even if the 2.5 million USDT is all lost, it doesn't matter to him, but if he earns, it's several times over.
He also admitted that many people make money in bull markets, and quite a few make big money, but very few are willing to take profits during the bull market and then patiently wait for the next round. 90% of people cannot get rich twice.Crypto Watch This Week: Pause on Contracts, Slow Accumulation on Spot (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Contract traders, don’t rush this week—there were 4 double liquidations in 3 days, that’s brutal (´･_･`). Spot can be held; ETF outflows are faster than expected, which actually looks like a bottom-fishing opportunity.
Macro is weak: rising inflation, Fed hawkish bias, midterm elections looming, and clear balance sheet reduction (｡•́︿•̀｡). Last week, only BTC and XRP had net ETF inflows, with BTC mainly supported by BlackRock.
BTC shorts are heavily placed; bulls get crushed as soon as they show up; the 80,000 mark is fiercely defended, 75,000 is the next critical level, and if the 82,000 platform isn’t reclaimed, don’t talk about a reversal. After SEC’s classification, XRP is surprisingly resilient; 1.2 is the base, 1.3–1.4 is heavy resistance, RSI is neutral to weak, hold above 1.3 before considering adding, no front-running. SOL’s Alpenglow upgrade achieves finality at millisecond level, solid foundation but the macro environment isn’t supportive; 100 is a psychological barrier, hold it to target 108–110 trapped zone, RSI around 48, moving averages flat, October ETF slightly down but on-chain activity rising, can accumulate below 100 (๑¯◡¯๑).
Rhythm: watch contracts, accumulate spot in batches, don’t get emotional. Risk on you~
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC Big bro Maji's account on Hyperliquid only has about $4,600 left, but there's a terrifying data point to consider:
The total funding fees he has paid on this account have reached as high as $8.15 million... more than 1,700 times his current balance.
Just the long ETH positions contributed nearly $4.95 million in funding fees. Getting the direction wrong is a one-time cut, but funding fees are deducted bit by bit every hour. Holding high leverage for a long time means suffering both at once, and it's truly the dull knife cutting the flesh that hurts the most.First, consider the worst-case scenario: if the issuer opposes, the final product implementation may fail, and the expectations around tokenized stocks could be dashed. According to PANews, IBM, Oracle, Intel, and IonQ have newly opposed OKX and ICE Markets' plan to tokenize their stocks under the SEC's innovation exemption, bringing the total number of opposing issuers to 26.
I think this deserves more attention than the narrative of "more institutions entering the market," but opposition does not mean the plan has been halted. ⚠️ First, there is a divergence between the issuers' attitudes and the platform's plan, increasing uncertainty about implementation; second, if the trading arrangements or holders' rights are unclear, ordinary users may easily mistake "tokenized stocks" for the stocks themselves, misjudging the risk exposure.
My risk control habit is to first list the maximum loss I can bear per trade, then verify the product rights and exit rules, not substituting concepts for terms. When facing such news-driven themes, how much stop loss do you usually set per trade for yourself?#Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve? $COIN Q3 revenue is very likely to be around $1.87 billion, exceeding the consensus of $1.8 billion. The real growth comes from Deribit and USDC, not the spot market you watch every day.
Deribit was consolidated for only 47 days but contributed $52 million in revenue, with options nominal trading volume hitting a record high and market share exceeding 75%. This is just the beginning; after full consolidation in Q4, the contribution from derivatives will further expand. USDC is even more stable, with stablecoin revenue at $355 million, a 44% year-over-year increase, driven by the natural growth of USDC balances in Coinbase products, largely independent of coin price fluctuations.
But whether spot trading revenue can rebound depends on the definition. Q3 total trading volume was $295 billion, significantly up from $185 billion last year, and trading revenue returned to over $1 billion. The problem is, while the global spot market grew 38% quarter-over-quarter, Coinbase only grew 25%, so its market share is shrinking. The moat of institutional trust is being slowly eroded by Binance and Bybit on the spot side.
Revenue improvement is certain, but the driving force has shifted from "retail spot trading" to "institutions playing derivatives + stablecoin interest income." If the market still values Coinbase based on spot trading volume, the earnings report will cause a very ugly earnings surprise.Last night I came across a post: The company behind Claude has submitted its IPO materials, the top AI player is heading to Nasdaq with the ticker ANT, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, aiming to list the week of November 16, with a valuation targeting 2 trillion.
Looking at the books:
Revenue: $16.3 billion in the first half of the year, compared to only $1.2 billion last year, a fourteenfold increase; the second quarter was the first time they made a profit in a single quarter.
Books: Net loss of 80.7 billion, but 72.4 billion of that is accounting adjustments from valuation increases and convertible bonds recalculated at market price, not actual cash outflow; the real operating loss is only 693 million, and operating cash flow is still positive at 3.93 billion.
Capital spent: Nearly 9 billion spent on computing power in the first half, with future committed computing expenses of 518 billion, exceeding 100 billion each for Amazon and Google — the car hasn’t even run yet, but the fuel has been bought for several years in advance.
Risks: Two unnamed clients account for 23% of revenue, and the filing itself states "may not be able to maintain profitability."
Driver’s perspective: Everyone envies the huge revenue, but the car is rented, and the fuel is prepaid by themselves; at the end of the month, the profit isn’t even enough to cover costs. Revenue is for outsiders to see, the books are the life they have to live.
Personal record sharing, not investment advice. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Consensus expects Q3 revenue around $1.43 billion, EPS $0.56. Goldman Sachs data from September shows crypto trading volume up 21% quarter-over-quarter, event contracts up 37%, both far surpassing market consensus. Bernstein is even more direct, forecasting revenue of $1.473 billion and EPS of $0.60, both above consensus.
The key lies in the structure. Q2 event contract revenue was $156 million, already exceeding stock trading at $129 million and crypto at $100 million, becoming the largest source of trading revenue. Bitcoin, gold, and crude oil price contracts are turning the prediction market from sports betting into a financial speculation tool. Q3 event contract volume surged to 16.4 billion contracts, accelerating quarter-over-quarter. Although crypto looks weak year-over-year, Q3 trading volume was about 50 billion, up 22% quarter-over-quarter, halting the decline. Net inflows and user assets are still expanding, with net inflows of 4 billion in August alone and platform assets at 383.7 billion, the foundation remains solid.
Therefore, beating consensus is highly likely, and revenue hitting a quarterly record is almost certain. But the stock price has dropped 22% in a month; the market’s concern is not about missing numbers this quarter, but the policy risk of the prediction market and the sustainability of crypto recovery. Good numbers are easy; the hard part is convincing the market this is not a one-time overdraw.Yesterday I came across a piece of news, and my first reaction was: The stablecoin play is about to change its lead actor. According to PYMNTS on October 26, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) publicly called on community banks on social media that day: they can consider applying themselves, or through subsidiaries, to become "approved payment stablecoin issuers." Note the wording, it says "consider applying," not "already approved," and certainly not "able to issue tomorrow." Why is this news worth a separate article? Because in the past two years, the stablecoin story has basically been a script for big institutions: big exchanges, big payment companies, big banks. And what are community banks? They are the banks in American small towns, the one on the corner where you know the teller's name. Now the regulator is putting the ball in their court, essentially asking: Should small banks also be given an entry point in the payment race? Let's first clarify the timeline to avoid being misled by the headline: First, the rules are set but not yet effective. The GENIUS Act takes effect on July 18, 2025, the OCC's implementation details were only finalized on October 21, and will take effect on January 18, 2027. In other words, this is a "rules issued, window not yet open" transition period. Second, the application channel is not yet open. The OCC's own implementation page states that it is currently not accepting issuer applications or exemption requests, and will announce the opening time after the relevant form information collection is approved. According to the OCC, a decision will be made within 120 days after the materials are basically complete—I just checked OKX BTC perpetual futures, and large traders have pushed their short positions to the most aggressive level in four days. I initially thought last night’s drop was a false alarm and that whales had eased their short exposure. I even said I’d admit my mistake if the short-position ratio fell below 0.912 before noon today. At 11:00, it stood at 0.910. I was wrong. Meanwhile, the long-short ratio climbed to a four-day high of 2.23, meaning longs outnumber shorts by more than 2 to 1. Most people seeing this set of numbers would probably first label Ethereum as "institutional retreat." SoSoValue data shows that on October 26 Eastern Time, Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $88.5769 million, with BlackRock's ETHA leading with an outflow of $105 million.
On the other hand, I think this data tests the issuers' ability to retain customers more realistically than it indicates the direction of $ETH. One reason is that Fidelity's FETH had a net inflow of $16.1295 million during the same period, showing that fund movements differ across products; calling them all bearish institutions is too simplistic.
Another reason is that the outflow amount ranking is not the redemption rate ranking. ETHA's historical cumulative net inflow of $12.156 billion does not equal its current asset size and cannot be directly used to calculate redemption pressure. I will focus on the differences in fund retention among issuers and will not judge winners or losers based on absolute amounts for now. $BTC keeps struggling around 80,000 but just can't hold above it.
The bullish is already gone. At this level, big investors think it's expensive, and no one wants to take over the position. Retail bulls are trapped and simply give up, lying flat and letting it slide. The 81,000 barrier has been tested several times never broken.
A pullback to 75,000 or 76,000 is inevitable; it's only a matter of time before the floodgate opens.
On the Ethereum side, 2,000 is beckoning.$ETH $ZEC #DailyOrbit After starting a small company, I've noticed a discouraging habit in new business ventures: before even estimating how many orders can be taken, the first step is to calculate potential disputes and how much money must be reserved on the books. I view the news about stock tokenization the same way.
According to Eleanor Terrett's article, IBM, Oracle, Intel, and IonQ have also raised objections to OKX and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) tokenizing their stocks under the US SEC's innovation exemption mechanism without their consent, bringing the total number of opposing companies to 26.
My judgment is that this is a somewhat negative signal for the input-output expectations of the related business, but it does not directly mean that stock tokenization is unfeasible. The technology can produce the product, but whether this business can sustain profitability is a separate matter; what needs to be re-evaluated now is the latter.
If corporate objections increase coordination and legal costs, then the revenue generated from transactions must first cover these expenses. If product arrangements need to be adjusted as a result, initial investments may take longer to recover, and cash flow pressure will increase. This is my speculation, not a confirmed subsequent development. Risk reserves cannot be cut either; otherwise, a seemingly good business on paper could face liquidity issues when disputes arise.
What I am more interested in is how the involved parties factor these potential costs in, rather than just hearing about how large the market space is. Friends in business, if you were responsible for this line of business, would you set aside a separate reserve for such disputes, or wait until responsibilities are clearly defined before investing?Crypto markets often reward price moves with instant narratives, but the four tokens in Tuesday's tape tell a more disciplined story. $HYPE traded at 77.38, up 1.3% over 24 hours, yet open interest slipped 1.3% by coin count across six-hour position data. That divergence matters: price is recovering without a matching build in leverage. The rally looks real, but it is not yet explained by expanding contract size, which keeps the move on probation rather than in conviction territory. 🪁 $BICO offThe biggest Fed risk the market should be wary of right now is not the current pause in rate cuts, but the hidden possibility of restarting rate hikes later, which is the biggest invisible pressure in this macro cycle.
Combining the latest Reuters surveys and inflation data, the market consensus is that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this time, but the core risk remains unresolved. Recent U.S. inflation data has shown strong resilience with a slower decline than expected, leading many economists and institutions to reprice the probability of future rate hikes.
In the past, the market logic was simple: expect rate cuts and liquidity easing to boost risk assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL. But now the logic has completely changed: rate cut expectations continue to be disappointed, the easing window keeps getting delayed, and even tightening expectations are making a comeback.
This means the market has shifted from "waiting for liquidity" to "being ready for tightening at any time," which puts a completely different kind of pressure on crypto assets.
However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the market; most negative factors have already been priced in. Often, after the "no rate cut" outcome is confirmed, it is easier to see a relief rally. In the short term, a high probability of volatile fluctuations is expected. The key focus should be on whether the Fed’s statements leave room for future rate hikes, as this will determine the medium-term direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Bitcoin ETF this week, money is flowing out and then flowing back in 💸
According to Decrypt citing SoSoValue data: The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of about $636 million last Thursday, and another outflow of about $138 million on Friday; but considering the inflows from previous days, the whole week still saw a net inflow of about $301 million, ending two consecutive weeks of net outflows. However, the entire month of October still has a net outflow of about $314 million.
HashKey researcher Tim Sun's view is that this decline is mainly a global risk asset correction, with the market doubting the valuation of AI tech stocks. He sees $75,000 as the next key support.
Today at 14:05 (Beijing time), OKEx spot $BTC is about 79,916 USDT, still just below 80,000.
My understanding: institutions are not retreating all at once, but rather reducing positions and observing before the interest rate decision and the US midterm elections on November 3. What’s really worth watching is where ETF flows go after the interest rate decision.
Do you watch ETF capital flows to judge direction?
Personal opinion, not investment advice $ETH ETH's RSI dropped to 33.7. What happened the last time it was at this level?
The technical indicators are sending extreme signals. ETH's daily RSI fell to 33.7, approaching the oversold red line. The last time it touched this area was on October 13 — followed by a 5.18% plunge within 24 hours to $2,412. But a similar reading also appeared earlier on June 5, after which it rebounded 26% over the next two weeks. Both oversold, yet the outcomes were vastly different.
The key difference lies in the on-chain capital flow. In June, exchanges saw a net outflow of 223,800 ETH, indicating accumulation at the bottom; this time on October 22, there was an outflow of 169,770 ETH, the direction is consistent but the scale shrank by 24%. More troubling is the ETF side bleeding for four consecutive weeks, with another $221 million outflow last week, 90% of which came from BlackRock's ETHA redemptions.
Three levels will determine the short-term trend: 2,283 (October 24 low, breaking below sets a new low) → 2,240 (August rebound starting point, mid-term lifeline) → 2,159 (200-day moving average, losing this points to the 1,820 vacuum zone).
The bulls need at least two of these three conditions to be met simultaneously for a counterattack: daily volume surging above 25 billion, ETF turning to net inflows, and the Fed's October 28 statement leaning dovish. Missing one means continued consolidation between 2,283-2,350. Conversely, if 2,240 breaks down on low volume, bears will dominate the next pricing round. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Strategy suddenly paused buying BTC, spending 205 million USD to repurchase STRC preferred shares.
This signal must be understood!
From October 19 to 25, no BTC was bought or sold, holding steady at over 840,000 BTC, with all funds used to repurchase preferred shares.
The essence is not bearish on BTC, but to reduce future dividend expenses and lower financing costs. However, using this money to optimize liabilities means no further BTC accumulation can continue.
Now only 242 million USD in available cash remains, and another 4.83 billion USD is reserved specifically for interest payments and cannot be casually used to buy coins.
Simply put, it’s not abandoning BTC accumulation, but first stabilizing the capital structure. Next, focus on when buying will resume, cash flow changes, and whether repurchases will continue.
Stay tuned for ongoing updates.
#Strategy回购约1.39亿美元STRC Has everyone noticed that the current cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin's trend, is most directly positively correlated with U.S. tech stocks, particularly the Nasdaq?
According to tracking by institutions like K33, the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has recently risen back to around 0.5–0.6, with some windows even approaching 0.68. It briefly weakened in September but clearly re-coupled in October.
When the Nasdaq weakens due to AI stock sell-offs, inflation data, or interest rate expectations, Bitcoin usually falls in sync; when tech earnings are strong and risk appetite rises, Bitcoin tends to follow the rally.
It is clear that institutions treat Bitcoin as a high-beta risk asset rather than simply "digital gold." The same funds switch between U.S. tech stocks and crypto;
Federal Reserve policy expectations, real interest rates, and dollar strength affect overall risk assets. When the dollar strengthens and yields rise, the crypto market usually comes under pressure; conversely, it tends to be bullish;
This makes spot Bitcoin ETFs easier for traditional funds to enter and exit, further strengthening the linkage with U.S. stocks
$BTC $ETH $DOOD On October 26th Eastern Time, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $110.34 million. SoSoValue data shows that all this money went to BlackRock's IBIT, while the other 11 funds had zero net inflow; the previous trading day had a net outflow of about $138 million. On the same day, the spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of about $88.6 million. CoinGecko spot BTC was around $79,800 (snapshot at about 14:07 Beijing time).
This looks more like a single fund holding up, not the entire market adding positions together. The opposing view might say that a large redemption just passed in the previous two days, so one day turning green doesn't indicate a trend. But the fact that money in institutional channels only flows into IBIT while others remain flat at zero at least shows that large capital is not collectively withdrawing.
If over two or three trading days, net inflows still only go to IBIT and other funds continue to stay at zero, treat this as a localized return of funds, not a full return of risk appetite; if IBIT also turns red again, then treat this wave as noise for now.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #ETFWhales have hoarded nearly 5% of ETH, so why hasn't the price taken off? Do you also equate "someone buying" directly with "it's going to rise"? When I reviewed my position records these past two days, I suddenly felt a bit emotional: what really causes me losses is often not being wrong about the direction, but mistaking others' actions as my own entry reasons. BitMine holds 6.05M ETH, about 4.95% of the total supply, with 5.22M already staked—this number is indeed shocking. But on the other hand, ETH ETFs had a single-day outflow of $88.6 million, totaling -$1.31 billion over the past 30 days. Both are called "buying," but one is long-term locked chips, and the other is channel funds facing daily redemption pressure; their rhythms are completely different. My current understanding is that the market is actually trading on the expectation of "chip structure tightening," not on incremental demand at the moment. Staking removes part of the circulating supply, indeed making the support below firmer; however, the continuous bleeding of ETFs indicates marginal buying hasn't returned yet. When these two forces tug, the price is more likely to grind within a range rather than break out decisively. Support is from 2295 to 2305, resistance from 2340 to 2365, upper target at 2380, stop loss below 2285—this set of levels itself suggests: this is a rhythm market, not a trend market. The bullish path lies in that as long as the 2295 area is not effectively broken, whale lock-ups combined with treasury-type buying will continue, making it increasingly costly for bears to push down. Once ETF outflows slow, the rebound elasticity will come quickly. The risk hides in event windows like the FOMC.The key event is the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. The election results will influence the pace of regulatory legislation over the next two years, especially for rules like the market structure bill that have not yet been implemented. The probability of the Democratic Party controlling both chambers is currently high, which may slow legislative progress and have a greater impact on DeFi and trading platform assets; meanwhile, Bitcoin itself is more driven by macro liquidity and ETF funds. Historical data shows that Bitcoin's performance throughout midterm election years often faces pressure, but sometimes there is a recovery in the 12 months following the election. In the short term, uncertainty before the election may amplify volatility, and after the results are finalized, there may be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" or reverse pricing effect. Today, using real capital flows and the entire network's liquidation charts, let's expose the truth behind BTC, ETH, and SOL!
$BTC shows short-term spot support, but the 30-day futures net outflow exceeds 7.5 billion. Although there is base buying, mid-term leverage selling pressure is far from cleared, so don't stubbornly chase highs.
$ETH's structure is the weakest, with a 30-day futures net outflow breaking 8 billion, far surpassing BTC. Both spot and futures have been hit hard in the last 24 hours, with major players concentrated on dumping, making the weak trend hard to reverse.
$SOL sees short-term spot capital inflow, but the 30-day futures net outflow is nearly 2 billion, indicating leverage funds are retreating. Despite the hot sentiment, watch closely for the tide going out.
The entire market saw 120 million liquidated in 24 hours, with over 50,000 people wiped out. Long positions account for nearly 70%, and high-leverage longs were bloodied, with BTC and ETH as the hardest hit.
The 4-hour and 24-hour data only reflect short-term trends; the 30-day data defines mid-term pressure. It seems funds are reallocating after the decline, so be sure to control your position size, avoid high leverage, and wait for clear signals.
The October FOMC rate decision will be announced this week; the eye of the macro storm is approaching, so fasten your seatbelts!U.S. retail investors really aren't afraid of dying! Chip stocks have almost crashed, yet the more they fall, the more aggressively they buy.
① Retail investors are really daring this time.
From October 12 to 16, U.S. leveraged ETFs saw a net inflow of about $9.5 billion in one week, setting a record, nearly double the previous record.
The most popular was SOXL, a triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF.
It attracted about $7 billion in just one week.
Keep in mind, during the same week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 11%. People weren't chasing the rise but were specifically buying during the big drops.
② Now let's see what institutions are doing.
Goldman Sachs data shows that in the five trading days ending October 15, hedge funds' reduction of tech stock holdings hit a record high since 2016.
This situation is quite interesting.
On one side, leveraged ETFs keep attracting money; on the other, hedge funds are busy reducing tech stock positions.
However, we can't directly say institutions sold their chips to retail investors; fund flow data alone can't prove who exactly took whose positions.
③ Is it a good deal to bottom-fish now?
SOXL has indeed fallen quite a bit recently, looking cheaper than at its highs.
But there's a problem: $SOXL tracks three times the daily price movement of the semiconductor index, not a fixed triple of long-term returns.
If the market fluctuates continuously, even if the chip index eventually returns to its original level, SOXL might not recover its value due to daily compounding and volatility decay. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The market makers have evolved now because many people have started watching contract data closely. Nowadays, they basically don't give any reaction time. I've been watching $ain for several days; the data is ready, just waiting for the launch, and then it started when I wasn't paying attention. The characteristics of these launches now are:
1. The speed of projects launching contracts is quite fast, giving no reaction time. Previously, there would be a test signal, but now it's so fast that it’s gone, like yesterday's $ain.
2. Many projects are now starting from spot trading, with very little contract open interest. The spot trading volume and contract trading volume are about the same size, like the previous $bmt and yesterday's $POLYX.
3. Now, the pump and dump no longer consider any restrictions. It's not a gentle pump; they are directly targeting those who are not naked short sellers. All the big funds of arbitrageurs are focused on their targets, such as $IRYS.
I will continue to adjust my strategy.A hard fork is a lifesaver, not forking is waiting to die: CORE's choice question actually has only one answer
When the validator reward vulnerability erupted and a large amount of excess tokens were mined prematurely, Core DAO faced only two paths: execute a hard fork to fix the vulnerability or let the vulnerability persist. If no fork repair is done, the vulnerability will be repeatedly exploited, continuously flooding excess CORE tokens, causing inflation to spiral out of control, and the token value will keep diluting, which is what everyone calls "waiting to die." Therefore, the hard fork is essentially an emergency lifesaving operation and was almost the only choice at that time. Through the hard fork, the source of the vulnerability was blocked, and 186 million abnormal tokens still held in the vulnerable addresses were destroyed, preventing unlimited overflow of chips and avoiding further worsening of the inflation disaster.
But saving a life does not mean recovery. This hard fork could only solve the single-point crisis of the vulnerability's over-issuance and could not erase about 69 million ghost tokens that had already been transferred out. These tokens still lurk in the market and may form selling pressure at any time. More importantly, long-term fundamental issues such as continuous node withdrawals, SatPay delays, and the on-chain revenue flywheel failing to materialize will not automatically disappear because of a single hard fork.
The hard fork only stopped the massive bleeding, preventing the project from dying directly due to vulnerability inflation, but it did not solve the core contradictions of the project's long-term survival. The fork only bought a breathing space and does not mean the crisis is over. Whether the project can survive afterward still depends on whether the nodes, ecosystem, and products can stabilize and recover.Bitcoin ETFs showed a net inflow yesterday, but breaking it down reveals only one buyer: BlackRock's IBIT absorbed the entire $110.3 million net inflow, while the other 11 spot ETFs had zero inflows or outflows. More subtly, on the same day, measured by BTC quantity, BlackRock itself actually had a net outflow of 1,358 BTC, accounting for 64% of the total net outflow across all ETFs.
What happened? ETF fund flows shifted from "diversified competition" to "single-handed support." Why is this worth attention? The zero net flows in the other 11 ETFs are more concerning than outflows—they indicate that institutional demand breadth is narrowing; it's not that everyone is selling, but that only one buyer remains. Which observation does this support more? Currently, it supports the view that "institutional spot buying lacks broad consensus" rather than the simple narrative that "ETF funds have returned." The key focus going forward is: how many more days can BlackRock IBIT sustain this solo support, and when will the other ETFs resume data disclosure? The suspense is: when the only remaining buyer also slows down, who will fill that gap? Feel free to discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 $OKB, frankly speaking, is basically the beloved native token of the OKX exchange. In the early days, it relied on perks like trading fee discounts and regular buyback and burn events to maintain its appeal. Later, it pulled a big move: in 2025, it will burn over 60 million tokens at once, locking the total supply firmly at 21 million, with no more issuance or regular burns. On the surface, this creates a "hard deflation" narrative, quite similar to Bitcoin's story. The problem is, scarcity itself does not create demand. What truly drives the price depends on actual utility. Currently, $OKB's core benefit of trading fee discounts on the OKX exchange is gone, leaving mainly the gas fees on its own L2, X Layer. However, the actual activity and ecosystem of X Layer are far from booming; often it seems like the exchange itself is propping it up. More importantly, the fate of this token is almost entirely controlled by OKX. They can change rules or adjust benefits at will, leaving token holders with little say. Plus, a large portion of tokens is already held in exchange accounts, concentrating liquidity. If the platform faces any issues or regulatory problems arise, price volatility will be very direct. In short, $OKB is more like an equity substitute betting on whether OKX can keep growing and whether X Layer can truly take off, rather than an independently viable public chain token. The exchange does make money, but how much benefit the token holders get depends entirely on the platform's mood. Those who like to follow the exchange can keep holding, but if you treat it as an independent asset allocation, you need to consider the single-point risk carefully 💻 Let's break down this message by code review: The input is the Hyperliquid perpetual public market data. The asset with the highest absolute current funding rate is $WLD, at -0.0067%/hour, approximately -59% annualized. The logic behind a negative funding rate is that shorts pay longs, not that the system gives bonuses to longs.
My judgment: This is a warning about position costs, not a reversal signal. Shorts have to pay to maintain their positions, but this doesn't prove the price will rise; the annualized figure can also be buggy—if the funding rate changes, extrapolating one year's result from the current hourly rate cannot be considered actual profit; even if fees are received, they might not offset price volatility.
If it were me, I would change "seeing a negative funding rate means an opportunity" to "observe whether the funding rate can sustain, then verify with price and volume." I'm more concerned about whether the price continues to weaken after shorts pay. Please help me review: when judging short crowding, which indicator would you add to find flaws in my logic?$ETH Whale Positions: Bears Temporarily in Control
$ETH current price 2303, down 1.32% intraday, funding rate 0.0074%, market biased weak. Whale data is more straightforward: 1022 addresses hold a total nominal position of $1.62 billion, nominal long-short ratio 19.18%.
Longs: 263 addresses, position $262.35 million, average cost 3011.75, unrealized loss $80.699 million, profit ratio only 20.91%, most deeply underwater. Shorts: 759 addresses, position $1.36 billion, average price 2303.56, almost at current price, unrealized profit $176,300, profit ratio 74.83%. In terms of volume, cost, and profitability, bears have the advantage.
This is not evidence of an "imminent long counterattack," but a cost structure imbalance: heavy trapped positions above, rebounds will face selling pressure from stop-losses; short average price close to current price, slight profit but not risk-free. Around 2303 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. If price cannot reclaim the long cost zone, weakness will persist; if it quickly rallies, shorts may be forced to cover.
Data is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. No rush, first watch which side's position and price loosen first. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Don't dream about rolling back the CORE hard fork's accounting logic; that is the ultimate bottom line for public blockchains.
Many holders initially had the greatest expectation: that the project team would directly roll back on-chain transactions and recover all abnormal CORE tokens leaked through the vulnerability in one go, resetting them to zero. But in the end, the Core hard fork chose a different path: it only patched the vulnerability that allowed future reward inflation, and for the 69 million ghost tokens already transferred to external wallets, it chose to "account for them" rather than forcibly rolling back the transactions.
This can be compared to the most famous case in blockchain history: the 2016 Ethereum DAO incident. Ethereum chose to intervene and modify the on-chain state to recover the stolen funds, which directly caused the split into two chains, ETH and ETC, and remains a huge controversy in the industry to this day. Core's "accounting" this time reflects the most fundamental credit bottom line of public blockchains: 1. Once an on-chain transaction is confirmed, it has the property of immutability. If the project team can arbitrarily roll back any transfer, then the ownership of all assets on this chain can be rewritten at any time, and the foundation of decentralization would collapse. 2. A hard fork only modifies protocol vulnerabilities, which is a forward fix, not a retroactive overturning of historical transactions. Excess tokens remaining in the vulnerable addresses are directly destroyed, but tokens that have already been transferred and entered ordinary external wallets are recognized as valid on-chain transactions. However, this "accounting" also leaves a long-term problem: the 69 million ghost tokens have not been recovered and may be released to exert selling pressure whenever the market recovers. Upholding the bottom line of not arbitrarily rolling back transactions is the dignity of a public chain; but merely upholding this bottom line cannot solveLong and short data are completely at odds, with retail investors going more long on BTC and ETH, while short-term selling pressure grows stronger.
The latest data shows that the 5-minute active trades for BTC, ETH, and ZEC are all dominated by the bears, but the capital sentiment among the three has clearly diverged.
🔸 BTC
The long-short ratio is only 0.769, with bulls at 43.47% and bears at 56.53%. Large holders are clearly bearish, but retail accounts have a long-short ratio exceeding 2.3.
Short-term selling dominates, yet retail investors keep buying more. Without volume to support the rebound, it can easily turn into a bull trap again.
🔸 ETH
The long-short ratio is just 0.6658, bulls at 39.97%, bears at 60.03%, showing the strongest bearish advantage among the three coins.
Retail accounts have the highest long-short ratio reaching 3.40, with large holders and retail investors continuing to oppose each other. If BTC weakens, ETH may still lead a sharp decline.
🔸 ZEC
The long-short ratio is 0.846, bulls at 45.83%, bears at 54.17%. Short-term active selling still dominates, but large holders are clearly bullish, which is completely different from BTC and ETH.
Currently, not all capital is uniformly bearish: large holders of BTC and ETH are defensive, while ZEC still has significant capital support. ETH is the weakest in the short term, and ZEC shows the greatest divergence.#Canada plans to regulate stablecoin redemptions, I first look at how to get the money back when reading the rules
On October 24, Canada announced a draft regulation for stablecoins, proposing full reserve requirements and initiating fiat transfers within three business days after a redemption request, with a redemption fee cap of 1%. It is currently still open for public consultation. I am interested in these specific provisions because the trust in stablecoins ultimately depends on their ability to redeem. The initiation of transfer within three business days also needs to be understood separately from the actual time the funds arrive. I will continue to see whether ordinary users can redeem directly and what restrictions apply during liquidity stress; these details determine the real experience when exiting.Regarding stock tokenization, I usually set aside "what the technology can do" and focus on whether it can actually attract substantial capital. Changing the circulation medium of assets does not mean the market has more money; macro liquidity does not loosen because of this, and new funds cannot be directly calculated based on the concept.
According to PANews citing crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, IBM, Oracle, Intel, and IonQ oppose OKX and ICE Markets' stock tokenization under the SEC's innovation exemption, bringing the total number of opposing issuers to 26. I tend to see this as a landing resistance rather than a rejection of the entire sector.
My speculation is: if issuers' opposition makes the product's rights boundaries and landing path harder to clarify, then large capital may increase scrutiny and delay allocation when evaluating such products. The reason is practical—institutions need to confirm what they hold and how rights are implemented, not just have another trading entry.
Another aspect is the capital substitution effect: if it's just the original stock exposure changing its medium, then active trading does not necessarily mean a net inflow into the crypto market. For ordinary users, the ability to trade and the shareholder rights they enjoy must be understood separately.
I remain interested in the direction, but currently, I focus more on whether the rules can hold the capital rather than how long the on-chain list is; next, I will watch how issuers' objections are addressed.$BTC is bearish, current price 79,869.9, today's low 79,429 which I judge will not hold. 24-hour volatility is 1.8%, long liquidations at 10.15 million USD, short liquidations at 9.9 million USD, both very small, almost invisible against the 7.76 billion USD contract open interest. Leverage has not been washed out, still remains on the market. The put/call ratio of options traded is 0.91, higher than the open interest ratio of 0.80, indicating new positions today lean towards buying downside protection. DVOL is only 38.3, protection is bought cheaply, these puts were set up in advance during calm market conditions. The chart shows moving averages in a bearish alignment, RSI at 40, price hugging the previous low, consistent with my direction. On-market leverage has not been cleared; when it breaks below 79,429, these positions will be passively closed, accelerating the decline. The fee rate of 0.0100% and stablecoin supply of 302.8 billion USD are just background information. Bullish reversal condition: reclaim and hold above 80,819.4, then this bearish judgment will be invalidated. When showing newcomers this kind of news, I first clarify: company IPO and token price increase are two separate matters. Bloomberg reported that stablecoin payment company RedotPay is considering a confidential submission for a US IPO before the end of the year; the company previously denied reports of a delay in its listing plans.
📌 Here's a knowledge point: equity financing expectations do not equal token value capture. I think this reflects a relatively positive capital market attention to the payment sector, but the logic translating this to token price is very weak. First, submitting an application does not mean approval for listing; second, even if the company's business grows, there must be a clear mechanism for the related tokens to benefit—it cannot rely solely on "belonging to the stablecoin sector" for association.
Taking "before the end of the year" as an example, this is the application window under consideration, not the date when the market will realize gains. Newcomers are most likely to treat the timeline as a countdown and then amplify bets with leverage; the news hasn't materialized yet, but positions may already be unable to withstand volatility. I will continue to watch whether the application progresses and will not add a profit scenario to the news.$XIAOMI Xiaomi today (October 27) plunged more than 4%, leading the decline in the Hang Seng Tech Index. Market data shows that capital is concentrating pressure, with a single-day short selling amount reaching approximately HKD 889 million, and the short selling ratio hitting 35.69%.
This round of sell-off is caused by multiple pressures, with the core contradiction being: the old core business (smartphones) growth narrative is collapsing, while the new growth engine (automobiles) has yet to achieve self-sustaining profitability, leading the market to aggressively reprice its valuation system.
📱 Core Contradiction One: Smartphone Base Facing "Double Blow" in Volume and Profit
Xiaomi's "cash cow" business is facing severe challenges. In Q2 2026, its smartphone shipments plummeted 26.5% year-on-year, dropping from 42.4 million units to 31.2 million units; in the Chinese market, Q1 shipment decline exceeded 35%, falling out of the industry's top five. More seriously, profitability collapsed, with the smartphone business gross margin once falling to 10.1%, almost selling at cost.
Pressure comes from two ends: soaring storage chip costs squeezing profit margins, and competition from Huawei's return directly impacting Xiaomi's core market share. To maintain share, Xiaomi compressed low-end device shipments, resulting in a double hit to revenue and profit, with adjusted net profit in Q2 down 42.6% year-on-year.
🚗 Core Contradiction Two: Automotive Business Still "Burning Cash for Growth"
Regarded as the second growth curve, the automotive business remains a huge cash drain in the short term. In the first half of 2026, the smart electric vehicle and AI innovation business incurred operating losses of 5.7 billion yuan. Although per-vehicle losses narrowed from 38,000 yuan in Q1 to 25,000 yuan in Q2, showing improvement, the absolute loss scale remains large.
The key issue is timing mismatch: as the smartphone "cash cow" begins to shrink and can no longer continuously fund the automotive business, the capital market's patience for the "burn cash for growth" model rapidly runs out. The market will ask: where will the money come from?
📉 Direct Catalyst: Downgrades by Institutions and "Earnings Shock" Expectations
With fundamentals already fragile, recent institutional actions have become the direct trigger for the stock price collapse. Jefferies recently slashed Xiaomi's target price from HKD 43.36 to HKD 30.45, with the new target even below the current market price. Their core logic is that rising memory costs will pressure smartphone shipments and margins in 2026, while electric vehicle and AIoT businesses are weakening, and they expect Q4 2025 earnings may miss expectations across all three major segments.
Additionally, institutions like Lyon have previously warned that Q3 2026 earnings will remain highly challenging, with total revenue possibly declining year-on-year and adjusted EBIT potentially plunging 36% year-on-year.
🎭 Sector Sentiment and Event Window Overlap
Today's decline also occurred during a specific market window. Large-cap Hong Kong tech stocks generally came under pressure, with Xiaomi, Meituan, Baidu, Alibaba, and others collectively turning negative, creating sector-wide drag.
Meanwhile, REDMI will hold a launch event tonight to introduce new products like the K100, but the market's reaction is "sell" rather than "buy." This reflects that under the comprehensive pressure on the smartphone core business, the market does not believe a mid-range new product launch can reverse the fundamental profitability dilemma, and instead prefers to exit ahead of the event.
In summary, Xiaomi's sharp drop today is a concentrated release caused by the collapse of smartphone business profitability, continued cash burn in the automotive business, institutional downgrades confirming pessimistic expectations, and sector-wide sell-off combined with event timing. Its stock price has fallen over 60% from its peak, essentially a brutal valuation shift—from a growth story of "people, cars, and home ecosystem" forced back to the harsh reality of "smartphones not selling and cars still losing money."$BTC partial rebound in US stocks, btc barely rebounds, US stocks partially sideways, btc falls, US stocks fall, btc falls, ... Understand? There is basically no capital willing to catch the falling knife, which means the landlord's remaining supplies are also running low.
What's even scarier is that despite last week's positive news from Meta, NAS continued to decline. What about the upcoming earnings reports from Google/Microsoft and the maintained interest rates? It's not that they aren't good enough, but the market is clearly preparing for a deep correction. In the face of the overall trend, none of these can reverse the flow of capital and sentiment.🍜 Tuesday Midday | FOMC Decision Countdown, Analysis of Divergences Among 4 Coins
$BTC 📈
After falling below 81,000, it oscillates around 80,800. On-chain data shows clear divergence: whales are distributing chips near 80,000, while retail inflows hit a six-month high. Market makers hedge with 126 million short positions in derivatives. The FOMC meeting is early tomorrow morning; the market expects rates to remain unchanged, with focus on Powell's speech. If 80,000 breaks, look toward 78,000; a dovish speech could rebound to 82,000.
$ENA 0.212 🚀
USDe relies on a basket of short-term US Treasuries for yield, preemptively betting on rate cuts. It previously rose 8%, now consolidating sideways with no growth; chasing high is paused. Only a rate cut signal in the decision can spark a rebound; if hawkish, gains are likely to be fully retraced, making chasing today risky.
$ASTER 🛰️
A multi-chain perpetual contract DEX with well-developed fee and market-making rebate mechanisms, but trading volume is only a few hundred thousand USD. Robinhood profits rely on existing users; currently, capital prefers rate-driven narratives. New projects like this must rely on events to attract new users to break through.
$HYPE ⚡
Self-developed L1 with on-chain order book, protocol fees flow back to the token. It did not follow ENA's rally; capital prioritizes yield-generating tracks. 75 is a key level to watch; avoid leverage before the decision.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC ETF single-day net inflow is about $110 million, so why does the price still fluctuate below $80,000?
Buy-side return is supportive, but the net outflow over the past 30 days is still about $279 million, indicating that the single-day flow has not yet reversed the mid-term trend. Coupled with the FOMC on October 27–28, the real variables are interest rate guidance and the reactions of the dollar and yields, rather than the word "pause."
If there is continuous net inflow and the price recovers above $80,000, the recovery will be more credible; if the ETF turns to outflow again and the lows move lower, I will downgrade my assessment. $NEAR
Account abstraction and easier onboarding could make blockchain applications less intimidating for everyday users. NEAR has pursued usability-focused infrastructure, including account and developer tooling. Yet a smoother experience does not automatically produce sustained demand for the native token. The meaningful test is whether applications attract returning users, generate economic activity, and use the network consistently enough to support value beyond temporary ecosystem incentivesStoneX raised the target price for Strive stock from $32 to $43, an increase of 34%, and reiterated a buy rating. People tend to see this as positive news for the Bitcoin reserve strategy.
On the other hand, I think the rating is less important than the reserve per share: new stock issuance supports coin hoarding, but if the share capital grows faster than the reserves, the coin content per share may decrease; the target price is just an institutional judgment, not a performance guarantee. I will focus on per-share data and not chase rating hype.