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In the past 3 midterm elections, $BTC has experienced adjustments of 20%-50%.
Additionally, Bitcoin did not bottom out before the midterm elections, but the situation is different now.
I believe there may be an adjustment starting from here, but it will not fall to a new cycle low.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Iran's Supreme Leader has authorized negotiations and even proposed a "two-day plan." Can the Strait of Hormuz really reopen faster this time?
Pharaoh directly says, the acceleration is real, but the "two days" is a condition Iran is offering the US, not a guarantee. Iran compressed the original "seven-day plan" into a "two-day plan": on the first day, the US must fulfill its commitments, and on the second day, the strait will reopen.Hot Coin Data Ranking｜Last 15 Minutes
$APR dropped sharply with increased volume and reduced positions, driven more by closing positions. Trading volume was 1.121 million USDT, 9.5 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous hour; price down 8.41%, open interest down 1.18%. The decline accompanied by position reduction looks more like positions are being withdrawn.#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
I see many people worrying about the midterm elections, so I'll explain clearly from three aspects!
Based on the midterm election situation:
Short term: post-election two weeks or immediate pullback. Historical data shows that BTC fell in the weeks following three midterm elections. Currently, the Democrats have a very high probability of taking the House, and the Senate may also flip, but this outcome is already fully priced in by the market. Meeting expectations could even trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" sell-off. Beware of short-term post-election pullback risks.
Mid term: policy implementation is a slow variable. Although the crypto industry has spent heavily trying to influence regulatory direction, the legislative process depends on internal Congressional negotiations, not just the President’s word. Even if "crypto-friendly" lawmakers increase, bills like the CLARITY Act will still take time to advance, so substantial benefits to BTC won’t materialize immediately after the election.
Long term: 2026 is a special cycle. In the past, BTC rose in the 12 months after midterms, but then prices were in a deep bear market zone 67%-73% below the peak; in 2026, BTC is only about 36% below the peak and already experienced a more than 50% pullback in June. This means the bottom formation in this cycle is significantly different from historical patterns, so simply applying the "post-election year rise" experience is unreliable.
In summary, the election itself is not a decisive variable for BTC’s trend. In the short term, guard against post-election sentiment fading; in the mid term, focus on actual progress of regulatory bills; in the long term, pricing still depends on liquidity and the halving cycle position. #BTC/USDT ANALYSIS
Bitcoin is rebounding from the support trendline of the descending broadening wedge pattern. Currently, it is trading below the 21MA which is acting as a resistance barrier.
A solid breakout of the 21MA will provide further upward rally. Here, we can also see a formation of double bottom pattern. Keep a close eye on these key levels for confirmation.Alarm sounding! Bullish lending is completely overcrowded, and unanimous bullishness is often a precursor to a shakeout
The latest borrowing data is glaring: BTC, ETH, and SOL bullish lending overwhelmingly crushes bearish lending, with market bullish sentiment highly aligned. An old rule in crypto: when everyone thinks alike and crowding maxes out, a wave of emotional sell-off can happen at any Today's capital flow data provides more information than the candlestick chart: BTC and ETH are simultaneously bleeding in both spot and futures markets, while SOL shows spot-side absorption, indicating a divergence in the structure of the three.
BTC｜Futures net outflow of $194 million, spot net outflow of $76.36 million. Withdrawal on both sides suggests funds remain defensive; the market rebound seems more like reshuffling of existing funds rather than a trend reversal.
ETH｜Futures net outflow of $95.69 million, spot net outflow of $114 million. Spot selling pressure is heavier than futures, indicating not just deleveraging but overall position reduction, making it the weakest structure among the three.
SOL｜Futures net outflow of $79.49 million, spot net inflow of $8.84 million. Leverage is retreating, spot is absorbing, showing the best relative strength; however, the inflow volume is limited, only a partial absorption, insufficient to confirm a strengthening trend.
Overall, deleveraging continues: SOL is relatively resilient, BTC and others see capital returning, ETH remains weak. At this point, chasing the rally is not cost-effective; focus first on whether spot outflows can narrow. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC is back at the 76,326 threshold.
The lowest today was 76,389, just 63 dollars short, no break.
I originally thought the answer was given last week.
On October 30, it hit 76,326 and bounced back, I wrote at the time "held the line."
But this is the second test.
October 30 low was 76,326, November 2 low was 76,705. Today 76,389.
Current price 77,281, down 0.98% in 24 hours.
The upper boundary has also been around the same area.
November 2 high was 78,878. November 1 was 78,422 $BTC
The Bitcoin four-year cycle perfectly coincides with the US midterm elections, which is quite a coincidence.
Every midterm election period marks the end of a bear market. This was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After the midterm elections, there is another sharp drop, the market bottoms out, and the bull market begins.
The difference is that each bottoming time has been occurring earlier. The banquet is trending, but Meme coins are not buying it: DOGE leverage clusters, PEPE bulls begging for mercy
The Meme community was flooded with a banquet this week, but prices did not follow the rise. DOGE, TRUMP, and PEPE are all retail sentiment thermometers, but who can catch the crowd varies greatly.
First, look at $DOGE, current price 0.074, 4-hour long-short ratio as high as 5.23. Despite the drop, bulls are still holding on stubbornly, leverage stacked like a fortress. When the main force sees such chips, it’s hard to lightly push the price up without first sweeping a batch with a big bearish candle.
Next, look at $TRUMP, elections have a huge impact on it; once news comes, it’s unstoppable, and volatility is entirely driven by sentiment.
Finally, look at $PEPE, current price 0.0000047, funding rate crushed to -0.15%, bulls have been tormented to the point of paying to hold positions; the long-short ratio has fallen from a high in the morning session, indicating many can’t bear the losses and are cutting their positions. When panic selling emerges, there might be a short-term rebound, but the overall trend remains weak.
Until the main force is satisfied, any rebound looks more like a bull trap. Staying out of the market and watching is at least not losing.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 Don't be fooled by the 4.41% rebound in 24 hours — this is not a recovery phase with increased cardiac output, but a hyperperfusion illusion after ischemia: the vessels look red, but the myocardium is crying out for oxygen. $APT is currently at 0.63, with the price pushed to 120% of the Bollinger Bands' short cycle, 0.6% above the upper band, and 3.7% above the lower band, like an overestimated ejection fraction and maximally stretched ventricular wall tension in the compensatory end stage seen in ultrasound. The short-cycle RSI is 70.3, clearly overbought; the long-cycle RSI is 54.1, still neutral — this short-long divergence is not systemic failure but a localized sympathetic storm, indicating the surgical indication is "decompression" rather than "bypass."
The more critical lesion lies in the Bollinger Bands' mid-cycle: the price is at the 97th percentile, only 0.2% from the upper band and 5.2% from the lower band, indicating this upward push has pushed the afterload to a critical point, and any pullback could trigger rapid decompensation. The 4.41% volatility in 24 hours seems like stable vital signs but actually shows narrowing pulse pressure; chasing longs is like adding fluid to an already overloaded ventricle. My judgment is to wait for a pullback to 0.64, which is 2.0% above the current price, to confirm outflow tract resistance before implementing reverse decompression. The short position targets are two-tiered: the first target is 0.59, corresponding to -6.1%, the first drop point for short-cycle overbought correction; the second target is 0.60, corresponding to -4.9%, serving as an alternative hemostatic clamp. The stop loss must be set at 0.70, corresponding to +12.1%, which is the ventricular rupture defense line; once crossed, compensation has turned to decompensation, and immediate chest closure is required.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.64 (current price +2.0%)
Take Profit 1: 0.59 (-6.1%)
Take Profit 2: 0.60 (-4.9%)
Stop Loss: 0.70 (+12.1%)
This tachycardic market is only suitable for short-window decompression, not for long-term bypass.$BTC Many people are still focused on ETFs, thinking that as long as funds enter the market, a rally will immediately follow. But the current problem is that inflows lack sustainability; much of it is arbitrage capital that cashes out as soon as prices rise a bit. Institutions are slowly buying on one side, while on the other side, huge whales sell during rebounds. The trapped positions above are heavily suppressed, and sell orders hit hard as soon as resistance levels are reached.
Bulls want to break upward but lack continuous incremental buying; bears want to break support, but there is also a batch of funds waiting to catch the fall. The tug-of-war causes the market to constantly sweep stop losses back and forth. Whether you chase longs or bottom-fish, it’s easy to get hit from both sides.
In short, this is a zero-sum game now. Outside money is unwilling to enter, so everyone is cutting each other within the range. Whenever the Nasdaq or U.S. Treasury bonds move slightly, fund preferences immediately shift, which is the root cause of ETF funds flowing in and out intermittently.
In this choppy market, the biggest taboo is betting on a one-sided breakout. Don’t guess when it will go up, and don’t casually take heavy short positions. Before a real breakout from the range occurs, any break on either side could be a false breakout. Be patient: either wait for ETFs to flow in continuously and steadily, with volume confirming a hold above resistance; or wait until support is completely broken and then follow the direction. Opening random positions now has too low a cost-performance ratio. $ETH $SOL
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 The opponent hands over the pawn right to my mouth, but I never eat it on the spot—I first figure out whether it's a bait or a trap. $ACH is currently presenting exactly this bait: a 2.12% rise in 24 hours, the short-term RSI has already touched 65.1, and the price has been pushed to 114% of the Bollinger Band's short-term range, standing 0.3% outside the upper band—the pawn has crossed the boundary line, but there are no supporting pieces behind it.
This is a lone pawn charge, not an offensive. The real situation assessment must look at the long-term cycle: RSI is 41.7, still stuck in the weak half; the Bollinger Band's mid-term cycle has only reached 72%, with the upper band still pressing down 1.3% overhead. The short-term strength is just a tactical counterattack in the long-term endgame; the initiative temporarily belongs to the bulls, but the control is not in their hands.
Therefore, the signal points to a counter move. I never make a move when the pieces are most excited, but wait for the opponent to make one more wasted move: enter the market by placing an order 1.8% above the current price, letting that charging pawn move one step further, exposing the gap behind it.
But the cost of this game must be calculated openly. The stop loss is at +11.2%, with two take-profit levels at -4.7% and -3.4%, the risk-reward ratio is about 1 to 0.4. This is not an advantageous position; this is a sacrifice defense: winning only wins a small margin, losing means losing half the game. The chess principle is straightforward—when the risk-reward ratio is not on your side, the only thing you can do is reduce the force invested. The same judgment, using a quarter of the position to bear the risk, is called thinking twenty moves ahead before making a move, rather than taking it step by step.
The first take-profit level is at -4.7%, which is the first step back from short-term overbought; if the opponent refuses to admit defeat and continues to press up, then retreat to the second take-profit level at -3.4%, securing half a step of initiative. The +11.2% stop loss is the bottom line; once breached, it means the long-term RSI 41.7 has flipped, the entire situation is reassessed, all pieces are withdrawn, no lingering in battle.
📉 Short:
Entry: 1.8% above current price
Take Profit 1: -4.7%
Take Profit 2: -3.4%
Stop Loss: +11.2%
In this game, I don't fight for momentum, only for the initiative in the half-step endgame.💰 US spot BTC ETFs shed $643.2m on 30 October, leaving the month about $516m net negative.
IBIT drove October’s inflows, but Friday’s selling hit every major fund.
With price 7.5% below the average ETF cost, inflows beyond IBIT would be the first sign of broader demand.The probability of the Democratic Party controlling both chambers is significantly higher—about 84%–95% for the House of Representatives and 64%–78% for the Senate.
But don’t just focus on "who wins" to trade US stocks. Historical data is quite interesting: in the year following midterm elections, the S&P 500 almost always posts positive returns, averaging +14.4%; however, from May to October in election years, it typically falls by an average of 2.6% with high volatility. Simply put, party affiliation itself is not the decisive factor for the direction of US stocks.
The baseline scenario for 2026 is Democratic control of both chambers, with a short-term impact on the S&P 500 ranging from -0.25% to +0.5%, which is minimal; a split Congress might yield about +0.5% to +1%; the probability of Republicans holding both chambers is low, but the short-term volatility could be the greatest.
By sector: Republican control of both chambers benefits energy, finance, defense, and semiconductor AI; Democratic control favors hospitals, insurance, and clean energy, but pharmaceutical companies, platforms, and oil & gas face pressure; a split Congress results in the weakest policy tailwinds, with the market returning to fundamentals.Stablecoin giant Circle is about to release its Q3 earnings report. The core market disagreement this time is just one: USDC's circulation scale and payment business are indeed growing, but can this really translate into solid profits?
From the current betting sentiment, the market expectation is quite optimistic, with as many as 68% of players believing the earnings will exceed expectations. But to really break down this earnings report, you need to focus on three key indicators:
First, look at reserve income. In the current high-interest environment, Circle is making a fortune from reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds, which is its lifeline.
Second, look at distribution costs. Especially the large channel fees paid to Coinbase, which directly determine whether profits can actually be realized.
Finally, look at the real expansion of the payment business. Stablecoins can't just stay within the trading circle; whether they can move toward real commercial payments determines their long-term valuation ceiling.
Currently, CRCL stock price is slightly down 0.11%, with funds cautious ahead of the earnings report. For this kind of crypto "water seller" earnings report, the odds of betting on direction are actually not high. It is recommended not to rush into positions; wait for the U.S. stock pre-market data to come out, see the quality of profits and the proportion of distribution costs clearly, then decide whether to go long with the trend or to wait and see. #IRENQ1AICloudDelivery Neocloud pricing is ridiculous right now, especially for $IREN. Market is pricing their minimum projected $4b ARR by year end 2026 around 3x EV/ARR, while their minimum projected $17b ARR by year end 2027 is around 0.8x EV/ARR.
What a gift to be able to buy $IREN at these prices, but not sure why so many investors are fearful right now. Maybe it stems from panic in seeing their investment portfolio move down aggressively. I’m certainly not concerned with my bet on $IREN $KMNO
I haven't mentioned this coin before. Kamino, a lending protocol on Solana, surged 16% overnight.
Opened at 0.0299, now at 0.0347, 24h high 0.035, hovering near the high.
The first thing I did was check the perpetual pool, $880,000. Only this much leverage is playing. 1H volume climbed from 38,000 contracts to 280,000, then dropped back to 87,000, all spot trades, contracts didn't keep up. The fee rate is still negative, -0.035%, shorts are paying longs.
I don't chase this kind of rise. It's not that I don't believe it will go up, but the pool is too shallow, trades easily push the price themselves. I'll wait until it really drops with a high-volume bearish candle before checking again.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC
77888, the highest point touched tonight, now 77518, a pullback of over three hundred dollars.
Citibank Wealth Management just released a report, pushing spot BTC and ETH ETFs to their own clients. The channel is really opening. At the same time, the US spot ETFs saw a net outflow of one billion dollars over two trading days.
New channel opens, old money withdraws. I've seen this combination before; usually the channel arrives first, money comes later, but this time the first to arrive are redemption orders.
The market depth is more straightforward. 1H volumes are 5972, 5238, 4208, 2858, 2045, 1732, each smaller than the last. Price ground down from 77656 to 77518, 77700 couldn't hold. The fee rate is still +0.01%, open interest is 2.57 billion, just over ten million less than two hours ago.
Volume shrinks, price sideways, selling pressure is not heavy, and there are no relays. I don't consider this a bottom, only acknowledge it is not falling right now. At this position, I stay empty-handed.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #Circle earnings report is coming, can stablecoin growth deliver profits? The latest leveraged long data is out, but first, let's pour a bucket of cold water on the bros 🧊
BTC: 1,507.55 longs borrowed, 68.89 shorts borrowed, about 22 times long to short; ETH: 16,400 longs borrowed, 766.95 shorts borrowed, about 21 times; SOL: 129,900 longs borrowed, only 3,148 shorts borrowed, long to short ratio directly hitting 41 times 😮
Borrowing coins and leveraging longs essentially means retail traders have already spent all their bullets. Now the short size is only a fraction of the longs, indicating sentiment is almost one-sided. The question is: how much new buying power is left to take over? Once there's any disturbance, clustered long positions are prone to concentrated stop losses, which could trigger an emotional shakeout wave 🌊
After trading for so many years, I increasingly believe one thing: when everyone is bullish, don't follow the hype. When longs are crowded to the extreme, smooth upward movement becomes difficult, and the chance of a shakeout is higher ⚠️
Coincidentally, the non-farm payrolls come on November 6, and whether there will be a rate hike in December will be repriced. Sensitive nodes combined with high crowding mean short-term volatility is inevitable 📉📈
The strategy is simple: don't heavily chase longs when sentiment is most unanimous. Wait for the shakeout to finish and for chips to change hands. Staying alive is more important than grabbing that one bite 💪$BTC #加密行业协同守护资产安全 Enterprises continue to increase their BTC holdings, with the latest holdings surpassing 2 million coins; market liquidity continues to flow out, and sentiment is clearly divided.
Within the square, 28% are bullish, 28% bearish, and the rest neutral.
• Bullish views believe:
- Strategy increased its BTC holdings by 811 coins to 849,327 coins, with a cumulative holding cost of about $64.08 billion, demonstrating long-term confidence in BTC.
- Tether holds about 150,000 bitcoins, using up to 15% of its quarterly net profit since 2023 for continuous purchases; private companies' total bitcoin holdings have exceeded 200,000 coins.
- Global systemically important banks such as Citibank have launched institutional bitcoin custody services, marking an increased acceptance of digital assets by traditional financial institutions.
Bearish views believe:
- The US spot bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for two consecutive days, with cumulative net outflows exceeding $400 million, indicating weak institutional demand.
- The total market value of stablecoins has declined for more than a month, with $6.9 billion outflow in the past month, reflecting a decrease in market risk appetite.
- The US dollar is the strongest among safe-haven assets, while gold and bitcoin weakened during the same period, indicating heightened investor risk aversion.$XRP XRP spot buy orders below 1.25 are holding the market firmly.
Whales have locked nearly 68.5% of the tokens on-chain, so there’s hardly any floating supply outside.
Short sellers are just stubbornly resisting, paying interest daily to keep shorting.
With such a thin order book above, if the main force pushes up a bit, all these short positions will instantly turn into ready fuel for a price rally.
#XRP
$XRP
👇$BTC exchange hacker caused a gap of tens of billions, ETF withdrew 600 million in one day, yet the BTC price stubbornly stayed around 77,000.
If this were a bear market, it would have crashed to zero long ago. The bears have used all their nuclear bearish weapons, but the price can't even break through the previous low, indicating that there is a lot of eager buying capital waiting on the sidelines.
All the bad news has come out and still no crash; next, the sellers will have to buy back their positions in the spot market themselves.
#BTC
$BTC
👇The most dangerous signal in the crypto circle has appeared! BTC rebounds, ETH follows, altcoins start to emerge, but the real big money may still be watching! How far can this rebound go?
First, look at $BTC: $77,622, up 0.87%
The US midterm elections are rattling the market nerves, and there is important employment data on November 6. More troublesome is that BTC spot ETFs have seen significant outflows before, and institutional buying has yet to confirm a return. Watch 78,000 in the short term; only a breakthrough will have a chance to challenge 80,000, otherwise, support at 76,000 must be guarded.
Next, look at $ETH: $2,291, up 1.79%
ETH's rebound is stronger than BTC's, but don't rush to call the bull market back. The Fed's rate expectations remain uncertain, and funds are more cautious. 2,250 is the short-term defense line; breaking through 2,350 can further open up space.
Finally, look at $UNI: $7.244, up 2.16%
UNI follows the rebound, and the DeFi sector shows signs of warming up, but sustained buying validation is still lacking. Holding 7 dollars is necessary to have a chance to push to 7.5; breaking below means caution for giving back gains.
A few final words:
The market's biggest deception is making you feel like you missed the bottom. My idea is simple: I'd rather earn less than go all in when the direction is unclear!
Brothers, are you bottom-fishing or watching this wave?
#迈威尔拟换股收购Lumentum，加码AI光通信布局 Bitcoin was below the 200-day moving average on the US midterm election days in 2014, 2018, and 2022, approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% lower respectively, but this year is different. Currently, Bitcoin's price is about $76,990, 5.2% above the 200-day moving average of around $73,169, indicating a relatively strong long-term trend. The 2026 Bitcoin bear market is shallower and the decline occurred earlier, with the main correction concentrated from January to February this year. Martin Lee, head The pinball machine looks wider, and both balls ended up stuck at the bottom edge. The 02—03 o'clock BTC and ETH also have a similar meaning: they ran further than the previous hour, but with less trading volume, and the close was near the low point.
According to OKX spot, BTC's highest price minus lowest price in this hour expanded from 187.9 to 345.1 USDT, trading volume decreased by about 24%, closing at 77590, only 30.5 above the lowest price. During the session, it even touched 20 points above the four-hour high from 8 PM to midnight last night, but closed back below that high.
ETH's hourly price spread expanded from 7.21 to 11.26, trading volume decreased by about 7%, closing at 2293.20, only 0.39 above the lowest. It passed 2300 during the session but didn't even touch the highest price of that four-hour period last night. Both ended up closing within 10% of their respective hourly range lows.
This time I will first note the closing position. If the next candle can close back in the upper half of this one, this kind of weakness ending near the low point will need to be reassessed. The 03—04 hour candle and the 00—04 four-hour candle have not yet closed. Data as of 03:00 Beijing time on November 4. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.Chairman Selig just dropped a statement on Equity Perpetual Futures
The CFTC has cleared the way for Equity Perps to begin trading on eligible regulated US exchanges, bringing stocks like Apple, Tesla, and NVIDIA into the perp market.
This is bigger than just another product launch. Perps are slowly moving beyond crypto, expanding into traditional financial markets.
For platforms like Lighter, this could be a major long term narrative.
$LIT Mid-term intelligence is here, just finished digging the latest ETF data, let me show you.
$BTC here, a single-day net outflow of 398.6 million, IBIT alone withdrew 405.3 million. Including last Friday, over 1 billion was withdrawn in two days. The price looks like it’s rebounding, but big money is desperately running out, this rally really lacks strength.
$ETH is worse, a single-day outflow of 139.7 million, blood drained for six consecutive days! ETHA almost monopolized the entire day’s selling pressure. Retail investors are waiting for a reversal, institutions are quietly reducing positions, this contrast must be guarded against.
$SOL single-day net flow is zero, accumulated outflow of 71.6 million in the previous five days, can only say the selling pressure has temporarily stopped, it’s too early to talk about inflows.
In summary, institutions are all withdrawing, mainly defensive, don’t hold on stubbornly.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Three coins, one direction. $BTC at 77,230.48 (-1.15% over 24 hours), $ETH at 2,259.38 (-0.41%) and $ZEC at 1,190.65 (-3.49%) all broke lower together, confirming what the bearish camp had argued: a bounce without volume, one that fails to reclaim a moving average, is not a reversal. The market has now validated that framework across three very different profiles. 📉 The technical picture is uniform but not identical. $BTC printed a fresh MACD bearish crossover and slipped beneath its 7-day moviConclusion first: $BTC is forming a minute-level bullish divergence indicating a short-term rebound, but the larger timeframe remains under pressure, representing a pullback window within a downtrend, not a reversal.
Short-term resistance: around 77580–78000
Short-term support: around 75880–74800
If it breaks below 74788, the bullish divergence structure fails, and the long position idea should be abandoned. #تقرير Circle's earnings are on the horizon, can stablecoin growth generate returns? USDC has become the first "significant electronic money token" in the European Union. Among forty-five types of EMT, it is the only one to hold this title, and the cost is that as of November 12, private funds, reserves, liquidity, and recovery plans will be directly managed by the EBA, while France will only handle human resources and outsourcing.BTC Faces Three Major Challenges at November's Start: Elections, Interest Rate Decisions, and Non-Farm Payrolls
At the start of November, BTC faces three hurdles: today's midterm elections, this month's central bank interest rate decisions, and the November 6 non-farm payroll data, followed by the CPI on the 10th. Before these events unfold one by one, large investors generally avoid heavy positions, leading to low volume and choppy trading, with rebounds failing to gain momentum.
Price-wise, BTC is consolidating around 77,000: there is dense resistance near 78,700 above, and support around 76,200 below. In this turbulent period, heavy one-sided bets are the biggest risk.
In terms of timing, the election results will first digest political sentiment, then the non-farm payrolls will reveal employment strength and rate hike expectations, with the CPI providing additional inflation clues afterward. Before the data releases, light or no positions and waiting is safer; enter the market only after a data point is released and the direction becomes clear. Avoid holding positions through news vacuums and enduring volatility.
This is for market observation reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH $BTC $SOL $BTC 在77,000美元附近反复拉锯，$SUI 却连0.85美元都守得吃力——最讽刺的裂缝出现在这里：生态在扩张，开发者工具在更新，网络性能在迭代，代币价格却像没收到通知。这种“基本面热、资金面冷”的错位，正是当前市场最值得盯住的叙事。 先看$BTC。价格约77,100美元，24小时窄幅震荡，77,500美元得而复失、失而复得，能否重新站稳是短线焦点。这个位置的意义不在于整数关口本身，而在于它检验的是资金愿不愿意在震荡区上沿继续接货。若站稳，说明抛压被消化；若反复失守，则震荡格局延续。 $ETH 约2,258美元，表现明显偏跟随。2,300美元附近的压力仍在，短线上攻力度不足。它的问题不是没有叙事，而是叙事暂时换不来增量买盘——在$BTC 没有给出方向之前，$ETH 更可能继续扮演Beta角色，而非领涨主线。 真正值得单独拎出来说的是$SUI。价格约0.874美元，三者中承压最重。最新动作是持续推进网络性能升级与生态工具建设，巩固高性能公链定位，长期用户迁移与开发者故事在加强，但短期市场反应依旧谨慎。如果0.85美元失守，短线压力可能进一步放大。这里的关键不是“生态好不好”，而是“$BTC stands around $77,500, with fork lines below and above. First look at the two lines, shout before seeing the result.
Below is $76,518, the low point on October 30. If it closes below, first watch $75,000. Then look at the 200-day moving average around $73,169. Above is $80,400, the upper range from last week. If it closes back above, first see if there is inflow on the ETF that day.
Current price is about $77,533, up about 1.1% in one day. $ETH is about $2,292, up about 1.6% in one day. ETF outflow last Friday was about $643M, the largest single-day outflow since June. Strategy bought 811 coins worth about $65.5M. Average price is about $80,846. ETF and treasury average cost is about $80,000 to $81,500. Current price is below.
Bitfinex says the election is a legislative catalyst in 2027. Not a price event for tomorrow. Just watch if the two lines hold, no direction given.This altcoin has the potential to 10X again
Still not sure which altcoin to bottom-fish? Take a look here
Among the newly launched tokens this round, I’m only following two: one is $牛来 mentioned yesterday, and the other is $PONS
I made a little money on PONS this year, bought in at 0.1 and sold at 0.35, so I have some affection for it and have been keeping an eye on it
But let’s analyze rationally. Personally, I think its advantages are as follows:
① PONS is the token launch platform on the $HOOD Chain. It’s one of the very early launch platforms on Robinhood Chain, so it can capture the traffic and users on Robinhood
② The most impressive is its buyback and burn flywheel: about 80% of protocol fees are used for automatic TWAP buybacks and burning of PONS, creating deflationary pressure. This is why I’ve been saying this round could be a buyback bull run
③ Fixed supply + continuous burn: max supply is 1 billion, with ongoing burns reducing circulating supply, theoretically supporting long-term scarcity
④ Robinhood Chain is still in its early stages and has huge potential to expand its ecosystem in the future. Naturally, memecoins will be part of this, which will heat up the launch platform again
⑤ Max market cap was $270 million, currently $135 million, down 80%
In summary, next we need to watch whether market risk appetite for it will rise, whether on-chain activity can rebound, and pay attention to the price range of 0.1-0.15 There's something I haven't figured out: a company didn't do much else, just raised another round, and its valuation doubled from $8 billion to $16 billion.
Fal raised $1.3 billion in the F round, focusing on AI inference. The list of investors is impressive, led by Bessemer, with Nvidia also pitching in.
Nvidia's chips are selling like hotcakes, yet they insist on investing in inference companies—is it because they're worried about downstream demand? The computing power narrative that $TAO has been pushing for two years probably needs to be brought up again.
With such pricing in the primary market, it's not surprising that $FET moves along for a couple of days. But the money belongs to others; the position is your own.A startup focused on inference has doubled its valuation in a Series F round—Fal just secured $1.3 billion in funding, raising its valuation from $8 billion to $16 billion.
What’s worth watching is not the absolute value, but the timing of its emergence. Over the past year, the market has been discussing "AI capital expenditure peaking," but the primary market’s answer is to keep doubling down, specifically on inference rather than training.
The lead investor is Bessemer, with Nvidia also involved, along with Sound Ventures, HOF Capital, and T. Rowe Price. The fact that both financial investors and industry players are participating indicates the bet is not on a concept, but that inference demand is truly becoming a recurring paid service.
The mechanism is straightforward: once model capabilities converge, whoever offers cheaper and faster inference will capture the call volume. As call volume increases, computing power and electricity become hard constraints, and this chain ultimately transmits to on-chain computing power and decentralized inference targets.
$TAO represents the computing power supply side, while $FET and $NEAR represent the agent and inference call demand side. The narrative hasn’t changed, but this time there is a real cash pricing reference.
One point to consider: the $16 billion valuation is for an inference company that hasn’t gone public yet, while the total market cap of similar on-chain assets is not far from this number. The gap is both an opportunity and a warning—when valuations run ahead and revenues come later, pullbacks often happen faster than the rise.BTC faces a double test this week ⚠️
The crypto market is unsettled this week, with two macro events affecting $BTC nerves: the midterm election results will be revealed in the next two days; at 9:30 PM Friday, the non-farm payroll data will follow 📊. Currently, $BTC is tugging around $77,000, with both bulls and bears cautious to make a move.
Based on the current situation, there is a significant possibility of bearish impact on the crypto space after these two events unfold, and short-term sentiment may be further suppressed 😮💨. Will BTC continue to weaken? When will it recover? It's too early to conclude now. The key depends on whether the election results and employment data exceed expectations, and whether the support near $77,000 holds 🔍.
If the negative factors are realized but selling pressure diminishes, a recovery window may open; otherwise, weak consolidation may prolong. In short: wait for the events to unfold, then observe the capital reaction; don't rush to bottom-fish or blindly short 📌. (The above is market observation only and does not constitute investment advice)$BTC chip concentration indicator continued to decline today, recording 13.03% (yesterday 13.53%)
After a weak rebound yesterday, BTC fell back below 77000 today, far from the high chip concentration area near 81000
However, 13.03% is still very high, and the potential volatility risk this week remains significantBitcoin has really been worrying these past couple of days! $BTC
A few days ago, it was repeatedly fighting around the 365-day moving average, and today it took another dive! Currently, BTC has dropped to around $76,660, the 365-day moving average is about $76,929, and the upper edge of the weekly bullish support zone is around $76,719. These two lines are almost squeezed together, yet the price has fallen below them! It seems the bulls are facing quite a bit of pressure this time.
We really can't be blindly optimistic right now. The key point to watch next is whether it can quickly reclaim $77,000. If it fails to hold above that for a long time, the 50-week moving average near $75,600 will likely be tested again. Of course, the daily candle hasn't closed yet, so it's still too early to draw conclusions.
Brothers, keep observing and patiently wait for the market to give us the answer!$BTC Bearish: IBIT outflow of $405 million in a single day, the largest since June
US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $399 million on Monday, marking the second consecutive day of outflows, totaling about $1.04 billion over two trading days (Farside, Bloomberg)
The majority is with BlackRock's IBIT, which redeemed $405 million in one day, while Fidelity's FBTC saw a slight inflow of $6.7 million
IBIT was the main source of subscriptions in October, supporting previous rebounds; this channel turning into net redemptions means the spot market loses its most stable support
BTC is currently at $77,589.9, up 0.74% in 24 hours, with a low of $76,386; the price hasn't dropped much, but institutional money is flowing out
Meanwhile, ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive trading days, and after Binance's reopening, customer net withdrawals reached $4.72 billion, indicating overall tight liquidity.$SNDK SanDisk surged to 1153 before pulling back to 1117. This contract's move seems to have ended early. The semiconductor sector opened extremely strong in the US market. SanDisk previously closed at 1075, climbed to an intraday high of 1153, gaining nearly 7% at one point, and has now retraced to 1117, still up 3.9%. But the OKX SNDK contract already showed signs of cooling after the 10 PM hourly candle. Volume surged to 205,000 contracts when price touched 1155.8, slightly above the underlyBinance recorded a $1.6 billion inflow today. $BNB
Meanwhile, just two days ago, shortly after Binance reopened the withdrawal function, users withdrew nearly $8 billion.
After demonstrating huge liquidity and processing a large number of user withdrawals, perhaps people's confidence is gradually being restored.
They began to feel reassured and started transferring money back to the exchange. Famous rollover trader AguilaTrades just deposited 450,000 USDC as margin and opened a BTC short position worth 9.35 million USD on Hyperliquid, with an opening price of 77,429 USD and a liquidation price of 81,464 USD. Data shows that since June last year, AguilaTrades has accumulated a loss of about 38.2 million USD in rollover trading on Hyperliquid. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC 💥 11 accounts liquidated in 24 hours, is 0x4b62 flipping short again to gamble?
In the past day or so, at least 11 accounts in the entire market have been liquidated with single-account liquidation amounts exceeding $1 million, totaling about $30,459,300, with realized losses of about $2,135,600; among them, long positions account for 84.76%, about $25,818,600. 😮
The largest account, 0x4b62, has been liquidated for a total of about $11,493,000: initially short positions were partially liquidated, then flipped long, but got liquidated twice on long positions early this morning, and now flipped short again, still holding about $10,010,000 in BTC short positions. At the time of writing, BTC is around 76,800, ETH around 2,254. 📉
Will this short position hold or get slapped again? I lean towards the latter. The reason is simple: flipping million-dollar positions back and forth between short and long is not small leverage trial and error, but being driven by volatility. Just after being liquidated on longs, immediately flipping to short shows strong emotional traces; with BTC near 76,800, if it continues to surge, the $10,010,000 short position can easily trigger liquidation again. If BTC falls back, it might hold temporarily, but judging by this account’s repeated liquidations, the probability of getting taught by volatility again in the short term is high. 😅
In short: it’s not that short positions have no chance, but this flip-flop strategy loses to volatility first. ⚠️The U.S. midterm elections are entering the result confirmation stage, but for investors, what truly matters is not which party wins more seats, but how the election results will change the U.S. fiscal policy, regulatory direction, and market confidence in the dollar over the next two years. An easily overlooked phenomenon is that as political uncertainty rises, gold and Bitcoin do not necessarily rise in sync. Gold behaves more like trading macro risk, while BTC trades both macro liquidity and crypto regulatory expectations. The core variable for gold has always been the real interest rate, not the election itself. If Congress is divided, fiscal budgets, debt ceilings, and government appropriations may face more political bargaining, and market concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability could provide safe-haven demand for gold. But this does not mean a divided Congress necessarily benefits gold: if fiscal spending is constrained, inflation expectations fall, or U.S. Treasury real yields continue to rise, gold could also come under pressure. The World Gold Council's analysis on October 22 also pointed out that gold's reaction to the midterm elections ultimately depends on the economic, fiscal, and monetary policies actually formed after the election, not the voting results themselves. Research from the Chicago Fed found that long-term real interest rates and the degree of pessimism about economic prospects are important factors affecting gold prices. Therefore, judging gold's direction by the 10-year TIPS real yield and the dollar index is more valuable than simply guessing which party will win. The special aspect of BTC is that it has an additional layer of U.S. regulatory pricing. By 2026, the crypto industry has already invested about 1.7 in over 100 midterm elections ZEC is currently trading around $1,130 to $1,180, having broken below the $1,200 to $1,300 support zone, dropping more than 10% in 24 hours, with a low of $1,121.6. The short-term structure is clearly weakening: both the 1-hour and 4-hour trends are bearish, with trading participation only 0.03 times, and the rebound lacks capital support. The core conflict in the news is the direct clash between the NU7 upgrade and capital outflows. The upgrade is scheduled for November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and increasing Orchard throughput from 2.9 transactions/second to 6.6 transactions/second, marking the most substantial protocol improvement for ZEC in recent years. However, ETFs are withdrawing: Grayscale ZCSH has continuous net outflows, about $93.56 million in a single week, with assets under management dropping from nearly $980 million to $751 million. This round of adjustment reflects real capital withdrawal. Whales are also divided: some addresses bought 3,052 spot coins and leveraged 2x to long 8,000 coins, with a total exposure close to $14 million betting on the upgrade; but some early holders sold 25,000 coins near $1,514, taking profits of about $27 million and exiting. Controversy over community funding also triggered a major holder to announce a full exit, causing the holding structure to loosen on the eve of the upgrade. The daily close at $1,121.6 is a more honest indicator than the NU7 narrative. The upgrade provides infrastructure conditions, not demand itself; ETFs are bleeding, whales are betting, and the volatility of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" is very likely to amplify before and after the upgrade.The U.S. midterm elections have entered the result announcement phase, but for the crypto market, what really matters is not which party wins more seats, but who will control the legislative agenda and regulatory oversight for the next two years. The crypto industry has indeed invested heavily this time. According to a Reuters report on October 27, the industry invested about $176 million in this round of midterm elections, covering more than 100 congressional races. Fairshake and its affiliated organizations are the main financial forces. Behind this money reflects the industry's long-term strategy: to support members of Congress who can promote digital asset legislation and support regulatory clarity. Why might ETH be more sensitive to this election? Because ETH involves complex businesses such as staking, DeFi, and tokenized assets, regulatory boundaries directly affect the compliance costs for institutional participation. The market is looking forward to the CLARITY Act clarifying the regulatory division between the SEC and CFTC, but it must be noted that even if the regulatory environment for ETH improves, it does not mean all related businesses automatically receive exemptions, nor can it be simply understood that the law has recognized ETH as not a security. There is another key detail: previously, during the period when the Republicans controlled Congress, the CLARITY Act was still blocked in the Senate procedural vote by 49 to 50, falling short of the 60 votes needed to advance. This shows that crypto legislation requires bipartisan support, not just relying on the seat advantage of one party. My judgment is that BTC is more easily influenced by global liquidity, ETF funds, and macro risk appetite; ETH may be more sensitive to changes in U.S. regulatory rules.Bitcoin is stuck at 77K, but what’s really shifting is the sentiment, not the price. The sideways movement you see— is it a shakeout or is everyone quietly retreating? Watching the market these past couple of days gives a very subtle feeling: the price hasn’t dropped much, but the tension in the air has thickened. BTC is repeatedly testing the 77K level, as if defending a psychological line, yet external pressures are no longer quiet. Oil prices have surged above $98 due to the Iran situation and election day uncertainties; this macro-level unease will first hit risk appetite and then gradually transmit to the crypto space. More worth watching are two signals on the capital side: reportedly nearly $400 million flowed out from spot BTC ETFs, and Binance is said to have withdrawn nearly $5 billion following a record-level hack incident. Looking at the numbers alone suggests panic, but connecting the dots reveals it’s the same story—holders are repricing their "sense of security." ETF outflows indicate some institutional position reductions, while large withdrawals from exchanges seem more like a trust-related stress response rather than outright bearishness. This brings up an easily overlooked point: the market is not currently trading on "whether BTC will break below 77K," but rather "how many people are still willing to hold positions amid uncertainty." In a sentiment contraction phase, altcoins usually bleed first; ETH’s relative resilience is used as a gauge of risk appetite, while BTC plays the role of the last emotional defense line. The bullish path is: 77K holds, oil prices fall back, ETF outflows slow, risk appetite expands again, and oversold sectors begin to recover. The bearish risk is: macro noise intensifies, withdrawal waves evolve into a broader trust discount, and the more 77K holds, the more...