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$IRYS IRYS's rebound looks impressive, but the order book is actually extremely weak. The price was forcibly pushed up by 64.8%, but the trading volume shrank by 85.2%. It's clear the main players never intended to take the goods; they just pushed up a couple of orders because the order book was too thin. The buy side has long dried up; above are all trapped positions. This kind of volume-less forced rise will fall back the same way as soon as there's any selling pressure. #IRYS $IRYS 👇Seeing a large order, I also get tempted first. Core Trader 90 opened a long HYPE position with 10x leverage, with a notional value of about $171,600. I'm more concerned about the leverage: a roughly 10% adverse move could approach liquidation, depending on the margin situation. The party involved might fear missing out, but onlookers tend to take large positions as bullish evidence and selectively focus on positive news, which is confirmation bias. This trade hasn't concluded yet. I remind myself: don't take someone else's risk exposure as a source of your own confidence.🚨 WALL STREET IS STACKING BITCOIN — IS THIS A BIGGER SIGNAL THAN WE THINK? 🏦₿ While the market stays under pressure, corporate giants are still adding to their Bitcoin bags. Strategy and Strive have purchased another 934 BTC worth $72.6M, strengthening Bitcoin’s place in corporate treasury strategies. Here’s what matters: Every BTC absorbed by long-term holders means less supply available for the market. 👀 #Bitcoin #StrategyBuys811BTC #CryptoMarket #InstitutionalAdoption #DailyOrbit ZEC gave the believers a lesson again today! OKX spot dropped nearly 6% in 24 hours, with the price back around $1170. We were just discussing the value of privacy coins recently, and now with a single bearish candle, I guess many people are starting to question their lives again. I've always thought some people in Orbit are really interesting. When prices rise, they talk about technological revolution; when prices fall, they talk about long-termism; once trapped, they start researching faith! ZEC's privacy technology is valuable, I don't deny that. But valuable technology doesn't mean it's reasonable to pay any amount of money for it! Don't confuse a good project with a good price, and don't mistake being trapped for long-term investment! 🔥 Holders of ZEC in the comments, speak up! Were you trapped at a high price this time, or are you preparing to buy the dip? I want to hear how the truly profitable people operate. Also welcome those who lost money to share their experiences, so the comment section isn't just full of profit screenshots! Let's discuss together! $ZEC #ZEC hits new highs again, valuation re-evaluation draws attention Good earnings report, but the stock price still falls $AAPL's earnings report exceeded expectations, yet the stock price did not follow. Many people's first reaction is that the market didn't understand this earnings report. What others think: The profit is there, so the stock price drop is an overreaction. What the market thinks: It's not buying how much is earned now. $xV is offering a prime accumulation window after dipping into strong support. Buyers are stepping in to build positions ahead of the next reversal. Buy Zone 410.00 - 419.66 EP 412.00 - 418.93 TP 435.00 455.00 480.00 SL 398.00 Downside pressure is exhausting completely as the price holds firm on local higher lows. A sharp upward expansion is brewing. Let's go $xV #OKXOrbitTopics . In October, $BTC initially surged but gradually weakened, falling 7.34% for the month and retreating to a key cost zone by month-end, testing the market's absorption capacity. This pullback was influenced both by external financial conditions and changes in crypto market capital and chip structure. We regard this as a normal validation during the repair phase. On the macro side, imported inflation continued to rise, and the marginal cooling of the labor market was insufficient to prompt a policy shift toward easing. Geopolitical risks and energy price trends keep inflation outlook highly uncertain. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, while the market continued to price in the possibility of further hikes; "higher for longer" interest rates constrain global asset allocation. U.S. Treasury yields declined throughout the month, but stocks and gold came under pressure at month-end, indicating that the marginal decline in risk-free rates is insufficient to offset uncertainties in earnings, policy, and liquidity. Capital flows shifted from a net inflow of $5.467 billion in September to a net outflow of $8.584 billion in October; long-term investors transferred about 119,200 BTC to exchanges, a 13.08% month-on-month increase. The weakening purchasing power combined with selling of old chips made supply difficult to absorb steadily, resulting in a decline to achieve rebalancing. Based on the EMC Labs BTC cycle judgment model, we maintain that BTC has started a new cycle and is currently in the "repair phase." We view October's pullback as a normal stress test within this repair phase. Under a macro tightening backdrop, such tests may recur, and markets often regain strong upward momentum after completion. $HBTC vs $BTC: Similarities and Differences ₿ Similarities ✅ 1️⃣ Total supply capped at 21 million coins, enforced arithmetically, no inflation 2️⃣ Block + halving mechanism: one block every 10 minutes, production halves periodically 3️⃣ Issuance completed in about 6 years: Bitcoin halves every 4 years, HBTC compresses this to 30 days Differences 🔀 🔸 Speed ×48: BTC halves once every 4 years, HBTC halves every 30 days 🔸 Mining method: BTC consumes electricity + mining rigs, HBTC uses transaction fees as "hash power" (Proof-of-Swap) 🔸 Cost recycling: BTC electricity fees go to external parties, HBTC fees recycle back into the protocol forming a seven-layer buyback wall 🔸 Distribution: BTC coins go to miners, HBTC relies on "buy to mine," no mining on sell 🔸 Authority: HBTC has no owner, no admin keys, no upgrade entry; genesis 350,000 coins locked in pool with no withdrawal function In short: HBTC is Bitcoin at 48 times the speed, but replaces "mining" with "buying," and "trust" with "arithmetic" 🧮 $ETH is its soil and wallet, $BTC is its soul and skeleton$xAAOI is showing massive bullish strength and ready for a breakout. Structure is holding solid above key support. Buy Zone 65.00 - 66.36 EP 65.50 - 66.24 TP 68.00 70.50 73.00 SL 63.80 Momentum is building rapidly with aggressive buyers stepping in at current levels. Continuation toward higher targets looks locked in. Let's go $xAAOI #OKXOrbitTopics . 🔥 Is $UNI a good buy-the-dip opportunity now? Let me share my live trading thoughts. My previous prediction was clear: the panic caused by the Binance hack would push UNI to retest the low of 6.25 set on 10.29. The data has come in over the past two days: Uniswap's trading volume and holder income have both sharply declined, returning to normal levels before the black swan event. The short-term trading heat generated by the incident has completely cooled off, emotion-driven buying has dissipated, and the price has weakened and corrected as expected. But there is a fundamental positive that many people tend to overlook: the protocol fees generated during the panic have been permanently burned through the destruction mechanism, effectively shrinking the circulating token supply. Although the short-term heat is gone, this improvement in the supply-demand structure is locked in and will not disappear. So my judgment is: 6.25 is the first key support; even if bears break it, 5.8 is the next strong support level worth closely watching. I have already taken action: placing spot buy orders in batches within the 6.3–6.9 range. However, one thing I absolutely cannot be careless about: the mid-term adjustment of $BTC has not yet confirmed its end. If the market continues to drop, UNI will find it difficult to have an independent rally, and the risk of a correlated pullback is right in front of us. Regarding position sizing, I have left enough room and currently have only taken 50% of my planned position. After the Bitcoin adjustment signal lands and stabilizes, I will opportunistically add the remaining position. This is not a blind all-in opportunity; it is a phased, defensive layout window.[BlackRock Transfers $700 Million to Coinbase, ETF Redemption Pressure Begins to Show On-Chain] 72,444 $BTC and 63,600 $ETH, totaling approximately $702 million, were transferred to Coinbase Prime from BlackRock ETF-related addresses within one hour. This scale can no longer be seen as ordinary wallet rebalancing, especially as the market is currently in a phase of capital withdrawal. On November 2, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $399 million, with BlackRock's IBIT single-day outflow around $405 million; the ETH ETF also had a net outflow of about $140 million, mostly from ETHA. BTC experienced ETF net outflows exceeding $1 billion for two consecutive trading days, indicating a clear cooling of institutional buying. Coinbase Prime is a channel for institutional trading and custody; after assets are transferred in, they may be used for redemption settlement and subsequent sales. If sales are executed, short-term spot supply will increase. Currently, BTC has fallen below $77,000, and ETH hovers around $2,250, with the market already lacking strong support. I tend to view this transfer as an on-chain signal of ETF redemption pressure, bearish in the short term. It does not yet prove that the entire $700 million has been dumped into the market, but combined with continuous net outflows, there is real data supporting institutional capital withdrawal. If BlackRock's holdings continue to decline, any rebound will more easily turn into a selling opportunity.$SPY Can employment data and midterm elections reprice US stock market risk? Both JOLTS and election outcomes may impact growth, policy, and interest rate expectations, with the market switching between macro data and corporate earnings. If employment cools but does not weaken and policy uncertainty eases, broad risk assets could benefit. The downside is that an overly strong labor market could push rates higher or political uncertainty could be prolonged; if earnings expectations are revised down simultaneously, indices will come under pressure. Observe the combination of the yield curve, market breadth, and earnings expectations, and avoid betting on a single event direction. When further confirmation occurs, I will separate market expectations, income realization, and cash flow quality; only if at least two of these remain aligned over multiple subsequent reporting periods will I adjust the medium-term view. If there is only a one-time message or single-quarter fluctuation, valuation recovery still needs to be verified. Binance admitted one thing: an employee was phished during a fake job interview, and crypto assets were stolen. The method was not sophisticated. The attacker posed as a headhunter or hiring manager, first discussing job fit, then scheduling a video interview, and finally sending "interview materials" and "work tests." When the employee opened these on their own computer, the device was compromised. Notably, the disclosure boundaries are limited. No amounts, no coin types, no number of employees involved, and no duration of the attack were mentioned. It’s also unclear whether user assets were affected or if the attack has been stopped. Everyone only has the same skeleton: fake recruitment, fake interview, employee device. This is interesting. Over the years, Binance has invested heavily in matching engines, cold wallets, and multisignature setups, which are industry-recognized and have strong defenses. But this breach was neither in the engine nor the cold wallet—it was on the employee’s computer. System architecture can be designed with zero trust, but people and processes rely only on training and policies. A seemingly normal video interview just bypassed the default setting of "it's normal for strangers to contact me." On a broader scale, this is an old problem with remote work and BYOD. Work accounts, internal notifications, and personal social apps all crowd the same screen. Attackers don’t need to break into any system; they just need to make the employee think "it’s okay to take a quick look at the materials." The real question isn’t how much Binance lost, but when attackers stop targeting servers and start targeting the person sitting in front of the server, how many layers of defense remain?#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Recently, storage prices have risen significantly. Although Apple’s revenue exceeded expectations, due to rising costs, gross margin has declined, and the profit pressure for the next quarter remains high 11.3 US Gold Thought Process Considering the geopolitical situation, the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations and ongoing military friction have brought substantial safe-haven demand to the market, providing fundamental support for gold prices. $XAU has won all eight intraday battles, successfully pocketing over 100,000 dollars! Returning to the four-hour chart, gold prices are currently in the pullback confirmation phase after a rally. Observing recent candlestick performance, momentum clearly weakens during price retracements, often accompanied by long lower shadows, indicating that at relatively low levels, the bulls' support is very firm, and each pullback is consolidating the bottom support. Although there has been some degree of decline after resistance above, the overall highs and lows still maintain an upward shift in focus, with bearish momentum greatly depleted, and the market is completing a phase of accumulation and transition. In terms of trading, it is advisable to follow the rebound structure, relying on the support area below to buy on dips, with the upper rebound space worth looking forward to, just maintain proper defense. $XAUT Pullback: around 3930-3920, target: above 3960! #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ A large amount of Bitcoin cost is concentrated between $81,000 and $85,500, meaning that a rebound entering this $81,000/$85,500 range may encounter a batch of positions waiting to be freed, which implies particularly heavy selling pressure, forming a strong resistance level! The $81,500 above is a previously dense transaction area, and the pressure here still needs to be verified by actual transactions. Without stabilizing above $81,500, no bullish outlook! Strong support below is at $75,500; if the price continues to fall below this, there is a high probability of a large amount of stop-loss selling. I analyze this round as a weak rebound first; if $81,500 is not held, I do not confirm a reversal to bullish, and once $75,500 is broken, beware of a second dip. If the positions waiting to be freed above cannot be absorbed, this rebound may turn into the next batch's trapped range. The same applies to Ethereum.$BTC is up 0.65%, with $506.75M volume shown. I'm seeing positive momentum, and the volume makes this move worth watching. I want buyers to defend the breakout area and establish a higher low before taking a long. OKX Signal: LONG (Conditional) Entry: 77,308.1 SL: 76,535.0 TP1: 78,081.2 TP2: 78,854.3 TP3: 79,627.3 Confirmation: Breakout retest with sustained buying volume.The next bull market might actually be the toughest time for many veteran retail investors. In previous bear markets, when people lost money, they could still comfort each other since the whole market was down. But the next cycle might be even harder for many: BTC goes up, but your altcoins don’t move; ETH rebounds, yet your holdings keep hitting new lows. By the time your sector finally gets its turn, the funds may have already shifted to the next hot trend. The most painful thing isn’t missing the bull market, but that the bull market clearly arrives and your account shows no change. I’m not bearish on the crypto industry. Blockchain is still developing, institutions are entering, and there are still opportunities ahead. But a better industry doesn’t mean every coin will rise, nor does it guarantee retail investors will make money. In the past, with fewer projects and concentrated funds, when a hot trend emerged, many altcoins would rise along with it. Now, new projects keep appearing, tokens keep unlocking, but market attention and funds don’t grow infinitely. Once funds are dispersed, old projects may no longer have enough buying power to support trapped positions. So, don’t keep thinking that just surviving the bear market means you’ll definitely break even in the bull market. Using old logic to wait for the next cycle will likely only bring another disappointment. What you really need to think through in the next cycle isn’t when the bull market will come, but whether there are still funds willing to buy your holdings. Some people don’t lose in the bear market, but only realize in the bull market that after holding for years, they’re just watching others profit. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🚨 $640M FLEEING BITCOIN ETFs — IS A BIGGER DROP COMING? Bitcoin is facing a serious liquidity test, and the pressure is building. 📉 Around $640M in spot BTC ETF outflows has raised fresh concerns, while buying support below $78K appears increasingly weak. ⚠️ If sellers push harder, even a small breakdown could trigger a wave of long liquidations and send BTC lower. Will buyers step in to defend $78K, or are we about to witness another painful drop? 👀 #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #DailyOrbit Wow! 🫢 In the past three midterm elections, $BTC has plummeted! Here is Bitcoin's performance after the last 3 midterm elections: 2014: Lost control of both chambers, bottomed around $171 within 71 days, a drop of -48% 2018: Lost control of the House, bottomed around $3200 within 39 days, a drop of -50% 2022: Lost control of the House, bottomed around $15500 within 13 days, a drop of -16% Prediction market data shows the probability of Democrats taking the House surged from 92% to 95%, and the probability of Democrats taking the Senate is 72% #USMidtermsAreComing, which outcomes are worth watching? It seems losing the House is a done deal 🤔️, just worried about losing both chambers! Why was Binance hacked, but the ones that died were other small and medium exchanges? 1. First, look at Binance's net inflow data in the days after the hack (Figure 1) 1030, the day of the hack, net outflow of 6.3 billion, this data matches 1101, the first day of withdrawal reopening, net outflow greater than 6.2 billion (top 50 coins) 1102, the second day of withdrawal reopening, net outflow greater than 2.6 billion (top 50 coins) 1103, the third day of withdrawal reopening, net inflow of 3.3 billion (the 3rd is not over yet, top 50 coins) The outflow in the first two days of withdrawal reopening is estimated to be close to the 10 billion level, which is also epic, equivalent to an FTX, equivalent to at least 10 small and medium exchanges now. The coins withdrawn are mainly stablecoins. Some funds without faith in the industry probably won't return in the short term. On the third day, Binance's fund inflow turned positive, showing confidence in Binance. Binance has passed the risk of a bank run but liquidity is still tight and must quickly restore 100% reserve proof. I see even UNI has not reopened withdrawals. Therefore, it is inferred that from 1030 to 1102, all exchanges were likely experiencing fund outflows, not just Binance. Based on my previous experience working at exchanges, this is typical. Such an epic-level hack affects the confidence of the entire industry. Although Binance can avoid a bank run, the fear of withdrawal suspension, I believe, always looms in everyone's mind. Some small and medium exchanges will have even more severe outflows. 2. Accelerated outflow of stablecoins (Figures 2 and 3) Starting from 1030, stablecoins clearly accelerated outflows. In just four days, USDC and USDT decreased by 3 billion, and$BCH is attempting to build a recovery after defending $272.67. Price has moved back toward $276.60, but resistance around $277.50 remains important. Entry: $275.50-$276.00 (Long) SL: $274.50 TP1: $277.50 TP2: $279.28 TP3: $282.00 Momentum context: Gradual bullish recovery, but buyers need to reclaim $277.50 convincingly. Conviction: MediumThis morning I saw someone say "building positions in batches equals stability," and I almost spat out my coffee laughing. Can batching really save you? From my own observation, many people treat "buying slowly" as a talisman, but end up increasing their positions while their cost basis barely drops, quietly enlarging their risk exposure. The original author's line "accumulating is for a lower cost, not for certainty, but ultimately making money depends on certainty" actually hits on a neglected point: batching is just rhythm management, not risk exemption. Watching BTC grind repeatedly around 76, cautious people wait for the 75 range; this range itself is nothing special, what's special is what the market is trading. People say they are waiting for a pullback, but in reality, they are waiting for a "sense of confirmation" before getting on board. This psychology turns a real breakdown and retest into a more effective window for adding positions, rather than a preemptive ambush. The original text says it's worth adding only after a trendline breakout and retest, a logic I agree with, because certainty at that moment is more valuable than "cheap price." MSTR returning to a noteworthy level is an extension of the same idea. The ETH line is clearer: you can adjust, but don't lose 2200. If it falls below and doesn't recover quickly, then step aside and watch. This is not bearishness, it's risk management. On the altcoin side, HYPE retesting an interesting level and price standing above the Vegas channel, the original text says to correspondingly add positions. I understand this as using "structure still intact" to justify "position adjustments," not mindless averaging down. The more bullish path is: BTC holds the range, ETH doesn't break 2200, HY $DOGE has bounced strongly from $0.07312 and reclaimed $0.075. However, the rejection wick near $0.07560 shows sellers are still active. Entry: $0.07470-$0.07490 (Long) SL: $0.07420 TP1: $0.07550 TP2: $0.07560 TP3: $0.07600 Momentum context: Buyers have the short-term advantage, but a clean breakout above $0.07560 is needed. Conviction: Medium $BTC is attempting a recovery after bouncing from $76,360. Buyers have pushed price toward $77,450, but the broader hourly structure still needs confirmation. Entry: $77,250-$77,400 (Long) SL: $76,950 TP1: $77,700 TP2: $78,000 TP3: $78,400 Momentum context: Short-term bullish recovery. $77,600 is the next important resistance. Conviction: Medium$SUI This wave of unlocking dumped 39 million USD, but the market didn't even ripple. Bears are losing interest every day and holding on desperately, with not much circulating chips in hand, they can't even find places to borrow coins to dump. The spot buy orders at 0.9 below are swallowed up in one gulp, giving no chance for a breakdown below. This market is solid. #SUI $SUI 👇🚨 BTC & ETH ARE BOUNCING — BUT DON'T CALL IT A REVERSAL JUST YET! The market is showing some green, but the buying strength still looks weak. 📊 🟠 BTC: $78,426 (+1.02%) 🔵 ETH: $2,292 (+1.25%) Both are still down over the past 7 days. BTC remains near the lower end of its weekly range, while ETH is showing slightly better relative strength. ⚠️ For now, this looks more like a relief bounce than a confirmed trend reversal. #CryptoMarket #Bitcoin #Ethereum #加密行业协同守护资产安全 #DailyOrbit Apple's earnings exceeded expectations, yet it still dropped 4% pre-market. I'm not surprised at all. The market nowadays doesn't care how much you earned last quarter; it only cares whether you can control costs going forward. Apple said holiday season gross margin is only 45%-46%, and memory prices are still rising. This statement is far more important than beating revenue expectations. Palantir is the same. Revenue rose 96% year-over-year, but it still fell about 7% pre-market because the growth of new contracts slowed. My view: The Nasdaq 100 has already pulled back 10% from its high. AI stocks are being repriced; one or two good earnings reports can't save them. Tonight there are election results and AMD's earnings report. I won't add positions for now; I'll wait for tomorrow's direction. After-hours for AMD tonight, are you betting up or down? This does not constitute investment advice #AI巨头债券利差飙升：投资风险还是抄底良机 #USStocks #Earnings #AI$BEAT: Weekly burns continue (latest about 1.25 million), but team/advisor unlocks have started gradually since November, with large releases in December. Supply pressure exceeds burns, so without positive macro news, my personal feeling is still bearish. In the short term, expect volatility; watch closely the reactions at 0.0985 and 0.1034, with bearish fuel above.The midterm elections are expected to cause another dip in the market, but it won't fall too much. After this event passes, the market will start to form a bottom. In the past three Bitcoin cycles, the bottom appeared after the US midterm elections: 71 days after in 2014, 39 days after in 2018, and 13 days after in 2022. If this pattern repeats, the time window for Bitcoin's next cycle bottom could be from the end of 2026 to early 2027. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC The five layers of CORE dissection: Security, Narrative, Revenue, Inflation, Liquidity — which layer can still be saved? As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, down approximately 29% over 7 days, with a 24-hour trading volume of only about $3.09 million, and a circulating market cap of about $12.48 million, down over 99% from its all-time high. Layer 1: Security, the most critical. In September, a validator over-claimed tokens due to a bug and did not roll back the ledger; at the end of October, the b14g protocol was attacked, affecting about 97 million CORE tokens. On November 3, a hard fork recovered about 68.15 million tokens, but they have not yet been allocated to affected users, and funds frozen by exchanges have not been returned. Layer 2: Narrative, fading. The premise of BTCFi is "Bitcoin assets securely on-chain." After two security incidents, competitors like sBTC and Stacks continue to vie for the same narrative, and CORE's differentiated moat has clearly thinned. Layer 3: Revenue, too small in scale. The 2026 economic model has shifted to using BTCFi's real revenue to buy back and burn CORE, but protocol income still struggles to offset long-term unlocking pressure. Layer 4: Inflation, capped but long-term. Total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, with about 48% circulating. Mining rewards decay annually and will be released over 81 years, so supply pressure is far from over. Layer 5: Liquidity, the most fragile. Trading volume is only about $3.09 million; a small number of sell orders can trigger a sharp drop, and rebounds lack support. Among the five layers, the security layer must be fixed first. If the b14g recovered tokens cannot be clearly allocated, buybacks and burns cannot outpace unlocking, and TVL cannot rebound,Trump just stated that greater benefits should be gained from Iran than from Venezuela. It looks like he's asking for too much again. You say you want to negotiate properly, but you're the one who repeatedly flips the table! With the current oil prices and inflation, most of the responsibility falls on him, not to mention the $TRUMP coin he specifically uses to cash out! After these remarks tonight, the crypto market started to decline again. No matter how we analyze technical indicators, the rise and fall depend on his words. The market now is truly hellishly difficult! $BTC $ETH #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ Tonight, I still lean towards the bulls for the following reasons: The midterm elections, Yellow Hair (Trump) must have done his groundwork beforehand. If both chambers are lost, there's a high probability he will be impeached and lose the next presidential position. What does that mean? Previously, Trump amassed wealth extensively through his position, and after impeachment, he will definitely face military court with the risk of imprisonment. As an extreme businessman president, Trump surely considered this aspect, so tonight the control of one chamber will definitely be secured 100%. Whether both chambers can be taken depends on the subsequent results. As long as Yellow Hair doesn't fall, it will definitely be positive for the crypto space. Brothers wanting to trade tonight can enter longs on Bitcoin at 765-770, set stop loss at 757, with targets at 785 and 795. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Today the index is green, but the market underneath is bustling. A-shares solid-state batteries suddenly exploded, Shangshui Intelligent surged 20cm directly, Longpan and Fengyuan hit the daily limit one after another and followed with limit-ups. On the other side, AI comics and short dramas continue to go crazy, Wentou Holdings hit 6 limit-ups in 10 days, Zhangyue 3 limit-ups in 5 days, with funds crowding in. But computing power hardware collectively fell flat, Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communications are both dropping, and the STAR 50 index fell 2.54% at midday. The index falls, themes fly, money is picking where to go. US stocks are even more twisted pre-market, storage chips collectively rebound, SanDisk and Micron rise over 3%, but Apple dropped more than 4 points pre-market due to memory cost pressure. In the same sector, upstream is profiting, downstream is getting hit, the split is quite obvious. Crypto is still the same dead scene, $BTC is grinding around 77000, $ETH stuck around 2250, fear index dropped to 33. ETFs keep pulling money out, BlackRock alone withdrew over 500 million in one day, but whale holdings surged to 3.03 million coins, the fastest accumulation speed since February this year. Institutions are selling, big players are buying, the direction is still not clear. In this market, not afraid of the index falling, afraid of stepping on the wrong side. I have a basic signal when watching the market: when retail investors overwhelmingly call for a long, that's when the market is about to reverse. This signal lit up again tonight. First, look at the number of people. The retail long-short ratio on the BTC market is 2.64, while the number of large holders is only 0.52. Retail investors overwhelmingly bullish, large holders bearish — on the same market, the crowd is split. Next, look at the results. The 24-hour positions of the four coins are all moving down: BTC down 2.04%, ZEC down 5.92%, ETH and SOL down 1.15% and 1.41% respectively. The side shouting the loudest for longs is the first to lighten positions. Then look at the large holders. The number of people is bearish, but their positions are pushed up to 2.17. Few in number but heavy in position, the total network positions compressed to 135.3 billion, down 1.56%, while volume expanded to 174.9 billion, up 36.39%. Positions didn’t keep up, volume ran ahead. So the motto remains: when the longs shout the loudest, chips change hands the fastest. BTC’s position cost is still held at 0.0104%, the most expensive among the four coins, while ZEC is only 0.0064%. The expensive positions don’t give ground, the cheap positions fall deepest, and the side following the trend is in no rush. The large holders’ strategy is simple: don’t compete on numbers, press on positions. When the direction emerges, the first to be cleared is the side shouting for longs. Tonight at 23:00, the position vacancy hasn’t opened yet, expected between 7.10 million and 7.22 million; August was 7.08 million. Before it lands, I won’t catch the retail side’s positions. Don’t bottom-fish before heavy long positions are cleared; follow the short when it breaks down, then flip back to long when it returns to holding side 🎯.IRYS JUMPS 11.12% AS BUYING ACTIVITY ACCELERATES $IRYS is trading around $0.02217, up 11.12%, making it one of the strongest gainers on the displayed list. The sharp move puts IRYS firmly on the market radar. After a rally of this size, the key test is whether buyers can defend the gains or profit-taking begins to emerge.SEMICONDUCTOR ETF RALLIES 4.91% AS CHIP STOCKS STRENGTHEN $SOXL is trading around $73.69, up 4.91%, with turnover near $786M. The move highlights strong demand across semiconductor exposure. However, SOXL is a leveraged ETF, so its gains and losses can be amplified. Sustained strength in the underlying chip sector will be important.Last week, all three directions I bet on hit the mark, and it was the kind of hit that didn’t require waiting: one already reached the take-profit point, the other two are still halfway there, but the direction was definitely right. Let me start with the results, then explain how I placed my bets this round—tonight, I increased my position size heavier than usual. First, about the market, don’t rush to call a crash. Bitcoin is at 77,231, down 0.8% in 24 hours, spot products have seen large net outflows for two consecutive days, nearly $400 million outflow in the last day, the Fear and Greed Index is 26, and October closed down 7.3%—the worst October in twelve years. It looks like all bad news, but there’s a counterintuitive point: the 24-hour trading volume shrank by about 75% compared to the previous day. When prices fall and volume collapses, it means those wanting to sell have already sold, and buyers haven’t rushed in to grab it; in such situations, trends don’t break, but opportunities arise. It was the same after the crash in March 2020; the real panic isn’t the price, it’s that no one is willing to bid; what’s different this time is that the leverage side has been calculated very clearly—long liquidations across the network exceeded $1 billion, all positions that should be cleared have been cleared, and floating positions are unusually clean. Reviewing without sugarcoating: the last round’s three picks all hit, a 100% hit rate. XRP was bought from 1.25 to 1.28, +2.11%, take-profit at 1.27 already reached; LINK from 11.11 to 11.19, +0.66%, take-profit at 11.33 not yet touched; HYPE from 84.10 to 85.73, +1.94%, take-profit at 86.20 just a bit away. All three directions were right, none was luck.OKB/USDT Market Update OKB is trading at $OKB 109.33, down -0.04% today. After pulling back from $OKB 123.33 down to a support floor around $OKB 106.00, the price is holding steady and consolidating. Looking at past ups and downs, OKB often builds a strong base near support levels before starting a bounce. My best prediction of all time for OKB is that if buyers hold support above $106.00, it can break past key resistance at $112.50 and push back toward $123.33+ to reach new highs! Midterm elections (starting November 3) are not presidential turnover Friday's major non-farm payrolls (impacting December rate hike expectations) This wave is just an oversold correction rebound after the big drop It's not a trend reversal, long positions cannot get complacent Wait for another bullish move before getting complacent again End determination: • Short-term resistance: $3980-3990 • Mid-term watershed: Effective hold above $4200-4220 to confirm the downtrend has ended.ZCASH STANDS OUT WITH A STRONG 4.84% ADVANCE $ZEC is trading around $1,190.37, up 4.84%, making it the strongest crypto performer among the major coins visible in this snapshot. Turnover has reached approximately $1.56B, highlighting significant market activity. ZEC is showing clear relative strength. The important test is whether buyers can defend these gains.Many traders expect a market rebound ahead of the US midterm elections, believing the worst news is already priced in. However, the latest ETF data suggests caution is still necessary. On November 2, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $398.6M in net outflows, including $405.3M from IBIT, while FBTC attracted $6.7M. This follows another massive $643.2M outflow on October 30. Institutional demand needs to recover before BTC can build a stronger bottom. $ETH is facing similar pressure. Ethereum spot ETXRP LEADS THE MAJOR ALTCOINS WITH A 2.44% GAIN $XRP is trading around $1.2802, up 2.44%, making it one of the stronger performers among the major assets shown. Turnover has reached approximately $254M, indicating active trading. The key question now is whether buyers can maintain this strength and push XRP toward its next resistance area.BITCOIN HOLDS ABOVE $77K AS BUYERS KEEP CONTROL $BTC is trading around $77,274, up 0.62%. Bitcoin is showing modest strength, with turnover reaching approximately $5.6B. The move is positive, but buyers still need stronger follow-through to turn this into a convincing breakout. Watch whether BTC can maintain its position above $77K.The daily RSI of Bitcoin shows signs of being oversold! $BTC Recently, the bulls have been thoroughly tested, with Bitcoin dropping from $86,000 all the way down to around $76,700, and the 365-day moving average has been fiercely contested. However, take a look at the RSI indicator below, it's quite interesting! In February and June this year, the RSI fell to around 30 or even below twice, after which BTC experienced rebounds of varying degrees. Now the RSI has dropped again to around 35, not far from the oversold zone. I still believe BTC is in the early stage of a bull market, but the short-term trend is indeed weak. RSI entering the oversold zone does not mean an immediate rebound, nor does it guarantee the bottom has been reached. Next, we need to see if it can hold steady around $76,000 and reclaim the 365-day moving average. This bull has been doing deep squats continuously lately; is it really preparing to jump? Keep observing and patiently wait!#anthropicipo faces investor price pressure, valuation expected to drop to $1.5 trillion 【Follow Old Leek Wealth You Have】 📊 What impact does this have on the market? US tech stocks: If Anthropic ultimately goes public at a valuation significantly lower than previously expected, it could further affect market pricing of the AI sector, especially companies with high valuations and longer profit realization cycles. $NVDAB and the computing power industry chain: AI demand remains huge, but investors may focus more on whether computing power procurement can generate actual revenue, not just the scale of data center construction. $BTC, $ETH: The impact mainly transmits through macro risk appetite. If AI valuation adjustments trigger further tech stock sell-offs, risk assets may be suppressed by sentiment, but this does not necessarily mean the crypto market will follow down. AI-related tokens: The market may place more emphasis on real users, revenue, and commercial implementation capabilities. Projects relying solely on AI concepts for valuation premiums may face stricter market scrutiny. Based on this valuation range, it is about 20% to 25% lower than previous expectations. However, this is only the pricing tendency proposed by investors; Anthropic has not yet finalized its valuation, number of shares issued, or issue price. 📌 There are three noteworthy details about this valuation change: 1️⃣ Investors are beginning to worry that AI valuations are too high 2️⃣ Revenue growth is astonishing, but costs and losses are equally staggering 3️⃣ IPO pricing may become an important indicator for the AI industry There's something I've never quite understood: why do some people always choose to sell when the market is falling? This morning, an address did exactly that. It had been inactive for 22 days, but as soon as the market dropped, it first redeemed from Compound, then sold 1,470 ETH on-chain, worth 3.31 million USD, and also cleared out 63.46 WBTC and cbBTC, worth 4.868 million USD, totaling 8.18 million. They don't sell when prices rise, but sell when prices fall. If it were me, I'd probably think, since it's already dropped this much, just wait a bit longer. But this person waited 22 days. Maybe for them, whether the price falls or not isn't important; what's important is that they've realized they shouldn't hold so much.$SOL + explosive bullish breakout charging ahead as buyers fiercely defend support zones. EP: 92.80 - 93.30 TP: 97.50 SL: 91.20 Solana is priming for a massive wave upward with intense market pressure driving the next leg higher. Let's go $SOL #OKXOrbitTopics $SNDK Tonight, SanDisk (SNDK) and Ethereum (ETH) show fundamentally different logic and technical patterns, but both face some short-term downward pressure. Here is a detailed analysis of the movements of these two assets tonight: 1. SanDisk (SNDK): Earnings surge can't hide short-term selling pressure, technicals severely oversold SanDisk's recent performance shows a serious divergence between "strong fundamentals" and "technical collapse." Fundamental positives: The company set a record with Q1 revenue of $11.03 billion, a year-over-year surge of over 370%, and announced a $5 billion stock buyback plan along with an 8:1 stock split. Institutions like Morgan Stanley remain optimistic about its data center demand, maintaining a $1750 target price. Short-term negatives and technicals: Despite strong earnings, SanDisk's stock price has recently plunged. On one hand, the CFO admitted weak demand in the low-end consumer market, sparking concerns about smartphone and PC sales declines; on the other hand, Apple’s gross margin expectations fell due to rising storage chip costs, causing a post-market drop of over 2%, which negatively impacted sentiment toward SanDisk. Tonight's outlook: Technically, SanDisk's current price has fallen below all key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 200-day), and indicators like RSI show deep oversold conditions. After the US market opens tonight, SanDisk is likely still in a bottom-seeking and consolidation phase. Although fundamentals are strong, given the current market-wide capital withdrawal from the tech sector, a strong V-shaped rebound may be difficult in the short term, and the risk of continued downward momentum should be watched. $ETH 2. Ethereum (ETH): Bears dominate, short-term downtrend unchanged Ethereum's movement tonight is expected to continue the recent weak and volatile pattern. Macro and capital flow: Ethereum faces severe outflow pressure, with October spot ETFs recording a historic net outflow of $1.61 billion. Additionally, the aftermath of the Binance hack and macro uncertainties (such as the upcoming nonfarm payroll data) keep market sentiment in the "fear" zone. Technicals: Ethereum’s price is hovering around $2250-$2280. Technical analysis shows ETH is continuously suppressed by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) and is running along a major downtrend line. The relative strength index (RSI) also signals negativity, with the short-term dominant trend remaining downward. Tonight's outlook: Ethereum is very likely to remain under pressure tonight. The price may oscillate narrowly between $2237 (24-hour low) and $2300. If it breaks the key support at $2160, it could trigger further liquidation cascades. Without short-term positive catalysts, resistance to a rebound tonight is significant. #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC The Bitcoin four-year cycle perfectly coincides with the US midterm elections, which is quite a coincidence. Every midterm election period marks the end of a bear market. This was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After the midterm elections, there is another sharp drop, the market bottoms out, and the bull market begins. The difference is that each bottoming time has been occurring earlier.
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