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#VanEck停止推进Lido质押以太坊ETF $ETH
This registration statement was filed on October 16, 2025, and withdrawn on October 16, 2026, with no sales made during the year.
▪️ VanEck submitted a withdrawal request to the SEC to withdraw the ETF registration statement and its attachments
▪️ The official reason given is that there are no longer plans to advance the issuance of shares for this product
▪️ The registration statement was initially filed on October 16, 2025
▪️ It did not receive SEC approval during this period, nor were any securities issued or sold
▪️ The product holds Lido protocol staked Ethereum certificates, not Ethereum itself
▪️ Most listed staking products operate their own validator nodes
The disagreement is not about the withdrawal itself, but whether the withdrawal concerns the product or the underlying asset.
Staking products need to answer two questions: where the returns come from, and who fronts the money on redemption day. Holding a staking certificate means the fund assumes the operational and penalty risks of the validator node, while the fund redeems based on its own net asset value. Operating your own validator node allows you to control these two aspects, whereas the certificate route depends on the third party's unbonding period.
The direction is to wait and see — re-filing with a different underlying asset means this path is still open; stopping here means certificate-based products are out for now.📅 NOV 11: THE $2.8B RISK.
MSCI has introduced rules that could exclude Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy and Metaplanet from major stock indexes.
JPMorgan estimates that removing Strategy from these indexes could lead to around $2.8B in MSTR share outflows — not direct $BTC selling.
📌 Final list of affected companies: November 11
📌 Rules take effect: After the November 30 close
The bigger concern isn’t forced Bitcoin sales.
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins After Bitcoin fell below 80,000, it quickly rebounded, essentially driven by short covering liquidity release rather than fundamental improvement.
The current rebound is basically over, with a high of 82,600 USD, suppressed at the previous strong support level of 82,800 USD—which has now turned into a resistance level.
Currently, the buying support below 80,000 USD is significantly weakening, and new buying has failed to effectively fill the liquidity vacuum, leaving the market facing structural fragility risks.
In other words, if Bitcoin falls below 80,000 USD again, it will be a sharp drop, directly plunging to around 75,000 USD seeking support. 📅 NOV 11: THE $2.8B QUESTION.
MSCI has adopted rules that could remove Bitcoin-treasury firms such as Strategy and Metaplanet from major equity indexes.
JPMorgan estimates a Strategy exclusion could trigger ~$2.8B in MSTR share outflows—not $BTC sales.
Final affected-company list: Nov 11.
Rules effective: after Nov 30 close.
The risk isn't forced Bitcoin selling. It's a tighter pipeline for financing future BTC purchases.
$BTC #CryptoTreasuryDurability In the next month, three major events will happen one after another, here are the key points in advance.
On October 19, CME will launch UNI and BCH futures. This is CME's first time offering futures contracts for DeFi governance tokens, with standard and micro versions, cash-settled, regulated by the CFTC. UNI is currently around 7 dollars, and on-chain data shows a whale withdrawing 600,000 tokens from Binance in one day. To be clear, futures are just a hedging tool for institutions and will not directly drive spot prices. Long-term this is a structural positive, short-term neutral, effectively adding a shorting option.
On October 20, ZEC's NU7 upgrade vote. The main changes are reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, allocating 60% of fees to the recycling pool, and phasing out old version transactions. If the vote passes, the mainnet activation is set for November 5. The testnet ran smoothly without major issues. This event is neutral to slightly bullish; if it fails, it will be bearish in the short term. ZEC is currently at 1235, with support at 1175, keep an eye on this level.
On October 21, SOL's Alpenglow mainnet upgrade. It confirms latency reduced to 150 milliseconds and eliminates the old TowerBFT mechanism. This is a medium-term positive but beware of immediate sell-offs upon launch. SOL is currently at 105, with resistance at 125.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed $BTC $ETH $ZEC The key point of this passage is: Although Bitcoin has broken through $80,000, the spot ETF has not continuously provided strong buying pressure, so this rebound still lacks an important confirmation signal.
1. What exactly does the ETF capital indicate?
The logic of this analysis is:
Late September: The US spot BTC ETF saw continuous net inflows, providing capital support for Bitcoin's breakthrough.
Since October: Capital inflows and outflows have alternated, and the buying pressure has not maintained the previous strength.
Current signal: There is no sustained, large-scale capital withdrawal, indicating the market may not have fully turned bearish; however, insufficient continuous buying also means the upward momentum may not be strong enough.
According to a market analysis on October 14, from September 17 to 29, the US spot BTC ETF had a cumulative net inflow of about $3.08 billion; as of October 13, the cumulative net outflow in October was about $276 million. This supports the judgment that "buying was strong in September and weakened in October."
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 929 million USD vanished into thin air, but the culprit isn't a crash.
While inflation data screams wildly, the Federal Reserve handed the market a cup of ice water. The US September PPI soared 6.3% year-over-year, and CPI stubbornly high as well; the script should have been soaring rate hike expectations. Yet, Powell deliberately avoided talking about inflation and instead turned to discuss AI's long-term impact, forcefully slashing the October rate hike probability from 50% to 15%.
Hot data, cold officials. BTC barely gasped at the 82,000 level, but this gasp was bloody: $929 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with longs contributing $777 million. This is not a return of conviction but a meat grinder of short covering and leverage cleansing. The resistance at 83,500-84,500 is ironclad, and 80,000 below is the edge of a cliff.
Don't mistake tactical breathing for a trend reversal. Energy and services both rise; the root of inflation hasn't been pulled out. The time borrowed by the Fed comes at the cost of the ticking time bomb of inflation.
In this knife-edge blood-licking game, the most tormenting is never the crash but the long agony of the boot hanging in midair. After brief numbness, the next storm is already brewing. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike within the year? #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $SOL block time cut down to 200 milliseconds, effective on the mainnet around 10:30 PM on October 9th, with almost no reaction in the market. It closed at 109 on the day it took effect, then fluctuated between 100 and 113, and was around 107 at the time of writing.
This speed-up took seven weeks, reducing from 250 milliseconds to 200 milliseconds, cutting half from the original 400 milliseconds, allowing 5 blocks per second. Order placement and cancellation are faster, slippage is smaller; these benefits will gradually show in transactions and won't turn into a bullish candle on the day of activation.
Most of the drop happened before the upgrade. From October 7th to 8th, it fell from 120 to around 105. BTC also dropped from 85,000 to 82,000 in the same period, indicating the whole market was deleveraging, unrelated to the speed-up. Afterwards, SOL contract funding rates mostly ranged from 0.005% to 0.008%, slightly positive, not hitting the 0.01% cap, unlike the last days of September when it was capped consecutively. There are still bulls, but no one is chasing.
I tend to see this as a good thing. When positive news doesn't lead to a price increase, many interpret it as "dead on arrival," but for that to happen, someone must have rushed to sell first. From late September to early October, SOL stayed sideways between 118 and 122, with no rush to sell. The fundamentals have moved forward, but the price remains where it finished falling; this mismatch favors the bulls.
There is another consensus upgrade activation on October 21st. The 100 level was tested once on October 15th, with an intraday low of 100.56, closing back at 105. This lower shadow is the clearest support currently; as long as it holds above 100, the direction remains upward.Over the past five days, an on-chain address has been doing one thing: selling 1,601 BTC and exchanging it for $130 million, all bought in Ethereum $ETH — more than 53,000 coins, at an average price of 2,497.
It’s not betting on Ethereum itself rising. There are two ways to bet on Ethereum: one is to bet on the absolute price, watching the overall market sentiment; the other is to bet on the price ratio, wagering on the exchange rate recovery of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. This portfolio swap sold Bitcoin, belonging to the latter.
The conditions for the price ratio are a bit special now, with institutional supply and demand moving in opposite directions on both sides. On the Bitcoin side, ETFs are still bleeding, and treasury companies are distributing out; on the Ethereum side, the amount held by listed companies has reached 6.6% of the total supply, with these positions locked and not entering circulation. With one side leaking and the other accumulating, the price ratio is easier to lift — on the same day, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin by more than two points, lifting the price ratio from a multi-year low.
But a single address does not indicate a trend. These 53,000 coins are currently at a floating loss of about two points, just recently established and still climbing. Whether the signal holds depends on whether it becomes the action of a group of people or remains just one person’s choice.
2,495 to 2,500 is the pivot for this round, 2,411 is the recently tested low, and 2,580 above forms resistance. #Korean stocks recover and rebound, can foreign selling pressure ease?
- The AI rally in the first half of the year surged too fast; many foreign investors originally came to earn cyclical profits, so the high-level gradual reduction of positions and asset rebalancing is not a short-term panic sell-off;
- The main focus of the sell-off is basically on Samsung and SK Hynix, the two major memory leaders. Once they are sold off, the index will find it hard to completely shake off the pressure;
- The root cause still depends on Federal Reserve expectations + US Treasury yields + Korean won exchange rate: as long as the US dollar side signals tightening and the won is unstable, foreign capital tends to take profits on rebounds.
So can the selling pressure ease?
- There is a chance for marginal easing in the short term: after continuous heavy selling, the selling momentum shows signs of exhaustion, valuations have fallen back to a relatively attractive range, and if memory industry performance can stabilize, some funds will stop mindless selling and switch to watching or short-term replenishment;
- But it is difficult to immediately turn into large-scale sustained inflows: to truly reverse the trend, generally you need to see simultaneously: clear easing of US Treasury expectations, stabilization of the won without large depreciation, upward revision of HBM/memory profit expectations, and confidence from the implementation of Korean corporate value plans #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Brothers and sisters
The Director of the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Gould, announced yesterday: the final implementation rules of the "GENIUS Act" will be in place by the end of October.
Many people didn’t take this news seriously, but those involved in stablecoins and exchanges are on high alert. Simply put, this act sets rules for stablecoins: from now on, issuing payment stablecoins in the US requires a federal or state license, reserve assets must be transparent, and they must undergo regulatory review.
The timeline is also clear: from January 2027, issuing coins requires a license; from July 2028, stablecoins without a license will no longer be allowed to be sold to US users on exchanges.
Who is most anxious? Those small stablecoins with opaque reserves, relying solely on credit. Who benefits the most? Leading players like Circle and Paxos who already have licenses, as well as platforms like Coinbase that can continue to use stablecoins as rewards to attract new users.
Last month, the Senate narrowly rejected the stricter "Clear Act" by a 49:50 vote, giving the industry a bit of relief. But relief doesn’t mean resting; how the final rules are written will directly determine the stablecoin landscape next year.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX’s first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed $BTC $ETH $ZEC $INJ This market situation, what I said this morning needs to be reiterated now.
It surged 28% in 24 hours, with trading volume 3.4 times the usual, an enormous volume. But if you check the coordinates, you’ll know what scary means — 69% higher than 30 days ago, 77% higher than 90 days ago, 187% higher than half a year ago, nearly triple. Those who bought casually half a year ago have now more than doubled their accounts.
The main force pushed from 7 to over 9 in one go, who got blown out? The shorts. Shorts were force-liquidated, buying panic ensued, each candlestick straighter than the last, this is called a short squeeze. The most exciting moments are often when the bag holders start lining up. Huge volume doesn’t equal health; volume at this multiple means someone is using this momentum to offload their holdings to those chasing the highs. $INJ Being bearish on the upcoming market movement does not mean it is worth opening a short position right now. The clearest stance from Ouge in this situation is: Bitcoin has returned to the range, the price sweeps up and down, and in the end, it may still return to the starting point; rather than continuously betting in the middle, it's better to focus on next week and wait for a rebound to set up trading positions. He does not interpret the short-term rebound as a trend reversal, nor does he ignore the bulls' resistance just because the overall direction is bearish. For him, these two things can coexist: still looking for opportunities to short on rallies later, but currently should reduce trading frequency. Direction judgment is one thing, entry position and confirmation signals are another. First, look at BTC. Ouge observes that after the price swept downward and pulled back, it repeatedly oscillated around the opening price during the day. This kind of movement looks more like bulls and bears testing each other rather than one side having taken over the trend. Chasing shorts after a drop or chasing longs after a rise tends to place stop losses right where the next sweep happens. His short-term scenario is that the price might needle down near 81500 or sweep around 83600 before returning to the original position. These numbers illustrate conditions for a volatile range that shakes out both ends, not confirmed breakout targets, nor a call to mechanically place orders at both ends. A direct rebound upward cannot be ruled out either; he does not rule out any particular path. More importantly, after the previous day's daily candle dipped and then recovered, there was a noticeable volume increase. In his interpretation, the bulls are not without resistance, and whether the short-term downward move can smoothly open space remains questionable. Consecutive fewOn-chain｜10/16: Whales quietly accumulating between 80-86k, 78-80k is the defense line
24h net flow: Spot ETF outflow again of 261 million (FBTC 153 million / IBIT 111 million)｜On-chain whale holdings at 3.03 million BTC (highest since 2025-11)
Watching three signals:
① Since the end of August, whales have increased holdings by about 60,000 coins, cost between 80k-86k, the main force supporting this round of pullback
② On 10/15, after probing 79,800, a V-shaped rebound occurred; 78-80k is the decisive zone between ETF selling pressure and whale cost (see orange band in chart)
③ 24h total liquidations on the network at 929 million, longs account for 90%, leverage has been washed out; but OI only dropped 1.54%, no real clearing
Note: On-chain data is delayed, whales can also be wrong; key defense lines are marked in the chart.
This round, are you siding with the whales or the ETF selling pressure?
$BTC #OnChainData
Data is publicly organized for reference only, not investment advice.Conclusion first: Last night I said the bulls were all talk and no action, and tonight the price V-shaped back, with fees still hugging zero. This rebound is a solo show by spot, with leverage absent. Numbers: BTC 82,024, 24h +1.88%, low point 79,775 pulled back over two thousand three hundred. The 82,600 line at midday still didn't hold. ETH 2,465, +4.75%, SOL 105.6, +3.67%, altcoins actually outperformed the big coin. Fees: BTC 0.0037%, ETH 0.00015%, SOL 0.0034%, all three hovering just above zero. OI 24.6 billion dollars, no volume increase. Honestly, a reversal usually starts with fees climbing first, bulls willing to pay protection fees to chase higher. This current state is called a recovery, not a reversal. Money is rotating into altcoins; on BTC's side, there isn't even anyone adding leverage. Tonight until tomorrow morning, only one thing matters: 82,600. If it holds above that for two hours, the rebound upgrades to a reversal, and my "leverage absent" call is void, I'll admit I was wrong in tomorrow morning's opening. If it stays below 82,600 and fees continue to hover low, that 79,775 low will be tested again sooner or later. In your position, are there many people daring to add leverage now? Recently, I saw Big Brother Maji's trading experience. To be honest, my first reaction was not envy, but rather a feeling of pity. According to data circulating in the community, he managed to grow an account from $56,000 to $12.25 million in just 4 months. That's more than a 200-fold increase! What does that mean? Many traders might never see such returns in their lifetime. But the real story that follows is what truly makes one reflect. 📉 From tens of millions of dollars down to only $20,000 The account's capital changes were extremely dramatic: 💰 Starting capital: $56,000 🚀 Peak account size: $12.25 million 📉 Final remaining: about $21,800 If these figures are accurate, it means the account retraced over 99% from its peak. Having once earned tens of millions, in the end, not even the initial principal was preserved. What is most worth studying behind this is actually a problem in trading: why is it hard to exit when profitable, yet unwilling to cut losses in time? 💡 This involves a psychological concept: the disposition effect. Many traders tend to sell winning positions too early but hold losing positions for too long. However, in high-leverage trading, another situation may occur: after making a lot of profit, one feels they have mastered the market rules and thus keeps increasing position size, hoping to create even higher returns. But the market does not reduce the risk of the next trade just because you made a lot of money before. The psychological impact of an account rising from 1 million to 10 million, and then falling back from 10 million to 1 million, is completely differentDon't get carried away by the rebound, focus on three things today 🧐
$BTC: 82,000 is the watershed.
Last night, 79,775 was pulled back, there is support near 80,000, but 82,600-83,000 above feels like a wall. After PPI, it first dropped to 79,694, then surged to 82,520. Looks fierce, but actually $929 million in leverage was liquidated in 24 hours, with bulls accounting for $777 million. More like short covering, no follow-through in spot. Only a firm hold above 82,000 counts as recovery; if it falls below 81,000, be cautious of testing 80,000 again. 📉
$ETH: 2,400 is the lifeline.
After rising from 2,317, the 0.786 retracement near 2,397 overlaps with 2,400, a battleground for bulls and bears. Holding this level targets 2,450; losing it targets 2,380, and if weaker, watch for a return to previous lows. On-chain whales reduced about 170,000 ETH in 24 hours, funding rates turned negative, big money is withdrawing, don’t pretend not to see it. 🐋
11:30 Wash’s speech is a thunderbolt.
CPI month-on-month 0.6%, PPI month-on-month 1.3%, core PPI year-on-year 5%, inflation is not light. If he remains hawkish, the rebound may be suppressed; if not more hawkish, it’s just a breather, not a dovish turn. October rate hike odds are volatile, market nerves are tight. ⚡
My stance: don’t chase shorts on sharp drops, don’t chase longs on bullish candles. First listen to Wash, then watch 82,000 and 2,400. Avoid the drop, don’t rush to pay tuition in the volatility. 🧘
Personal review, not investment advice. #Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? "Altcoin Market Retreats, Capital Returns to Blue Chips: NEAR, FIL, or SUI — Why I Only Keep SUI?"
Last night, the crypto market liquidation volume reached $930 million, and the capital flow direction has begun to change.
The previously frenzied altcoins are gradually cooling down, and funds are starting to seek more supported positions. NEAR, FIL, and SUI all staged deep V-shaped rebounds, indicating there is indeed support at low levels.
But a rebound does not equal a reversal. Comparing these three coins together, I ultimately chose only $SUI.
Why? Let's break it down one by one.
1. $NEAR: The gains are impressive, but the logic isn’t solid enough
Up 109% in the past 30 days, with a monthly increase of 178% in September alone, the elasticity is indeed remarkable.
The question is, what exactly is driving this surge? Currently, it is mostly driven by AI narratives and short-covering, lacking clear new capital catalysts. Last night, NEAR once dropped 10.1%, so volatility risk cannot be ignored.
Although Grayscale’s AI fund has included NEAR in its portfolio, this fund is a private placement product and cannot be directly equated with short-term spot buying.
Being able to rise is one thing; whether it can sustain the rise is another.
2. $FIL: Supply side improves, demand side still needs validation
The highlight of FIL lies in supply changes.
According to current related data, the six-year unlocking cycle is reaching its maturity point, with annual new supply expected to drop to 22 million tokens, a reduction of about 75%. Additionally, on October 13, PDP will launch on the mainnet, and on October 19 RSI 88! TSLAB volume exploded 70 times, is the Roadster flight night a takeoff or a bull trap?
Tesla Roadster flight demo night saw an after-hours rise of over 2%, $TSLA moved synchronously, with 15-minute volume reaching 70.9 times the baseline, and capital attention sharply increased. But RSI6 has surged to 88, seriously overbought, and after a MACD underwater golden cross with volume expansion, short-term pullback pressure is very high. Q3 global deliveries of 486,500 units exceeded expectations, providing fundamental support, but flight demos have historically had limited impact on market value, and Wall Street's reaction is cautious.
On the technical upgrade front, TSLAB has entered the BNB Chain Core Pool through Venus Protocol, with a collateral factor of 60% and a liquidation threshold of 70%, opening new narratives for DeFi composability. On the capital side, BNB Chain holders have reached 61,055, with 24-hour trading volume of 1.91M, and strong buy orders.
After the Roadster release, on Hyperliquid $xTSLA rose from 373 by +2.13%. Contract volume was 81.12 million, 24.3 times. Open interest increased from 46.7 million to 82.33 million, +76.3%, far exceeding the price increase—incremental leverage entering. Three major whales built long positions from zero, totaling 3.98 million at an average price of 377.60, a key resistance. The Q3 earnings report on October 21 is a variable.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Netflix released its quarterly report after market close on the 20th. The market expects revenue to be around $120 billion, with year-over-year growth just over 10%, and profit margins continuing to improve. However, the growth rate itself is no longer as strong, so the future depends on whether membership continues to rise and if advertising can truly support the business.
The market currently prices Yes at over seventy cents, showing optimism. The market has long been aware of the slowing growth; any real upside surprise must come from advertising and profits. Without that, the stock price is likely to suffer.Netflix will announce its Q3 earnings on October 20. I am betting on OKX that this quarter's earnings will exceed expectations (Yes). Currently, Wall Street's expectations for Netflix are not low, but I believe there are still several bullish reasons worth noting👇🏻 1️⃣ The effect of price increases in the U.S. market may be fully reflected this quarter. Netflix's Q3 revenue guidance given in the Q2 earnings report was $12.86 billion. This quarter is the first full quarter with the new round of price increases in the U.S. market fully accounted for in the results. Price increases do not necessarily directly lead to exceeding expectations, as user churn and plan downgrades may offset some of the gains. But if users accept the price adjustments well, average revenue has a chance to improve. 2️⃣ Advertising business may become an additional growth driver. Netflix is no longer just relying on subscription fees to make money; the advertising business is also a growth point worth watching going forward. If advertising revenue growth and the effect of subscription price increases both outperform expectations, then even if user watch time growth slows, it does not necessarily mean the company's revenue and profits will weaken accordingly. Of course, how much profit the growth in advertising business ultimately contributes depends on the data disclosed in the earnings report; we cannot just look at the growth story. 3️⃣ Analyst expectations have recently been revised downward. According to Zacks data on October 15, the market consensus EPS expectation for Netflix this quarter is about $0.82, which has been revised down over the past 30 days to 0All CPI and PPI data have been released, and this wave of inflation expectations has landed.
Many people think that once the data is out, the market will make a big one-sided move, but that's not the case.
This time the data proves that inflation is resilient, but not strong enough to force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates immediately. The market has now pushed back rate hike expectations, betting that action might only happen in December.
Next, in the crypto space, short-term is very likely to see volatile pullbacks and more spikes. Bitcoin is relatively stable, while altcoins like SOL will experience very large fluctuations.
What truly determines the big direction ahead is not the already released CPI and PPI, but the upcoming Federal Reserve officials' speeches and the FOMC meeting on October 28.
Remember, inflation pressure is only delayed, not gone. In a volatile market, be very cautious with leverage and avoid blindly bottom-fishing. #USCPIandPPIsurpassexpectations, will there be another rate hike this year? $BTC $ETH $SOL $CT
CT rose nearly 9%, how to avoid interpreting the price action as an unknown positive catalyst?
Spot price increased about 8.87% in 24 hours, ranging from 0.33829 to 0.39567, with a trading volume of approximately 5.07 million USDT. The rise and volume can be confirmed, but this does not justify inferring undisclosed partnerships or funding sources.
When trading volume is small, limited buying and selling can also cause large price swings. Analysis should first distinguish between known market conditions and unknown reasons; without announcement evidence, there is no need to force a narrative for the price increase.
If turnover can sustain above 0.39567, a breakout is more credible; if there is slight selling pressure causing a retreat back into the range, the rise may be hard to maintain. If 0.33829 is breached, a reassessment is needed, and it is important to verify the asset corresponding to the same ticker code, avoiding applying news from other projects.The impact of Robinhood FUD on Lighter is fading
Personally, I think the impact of the previous wave of FUD has passed.
At the end of September, Robinhood announced the launch of perpetual contracts in the US via Bitstamp, causing $LIT to plummet nearly 20% at one point. The market was worried that Lighter would be marginalized by Robinhood, but the data does not support this narrative—Lighter's perpetual contract exchange on the Robinhood Chain achieved a new 30-day revenue high of $1.95 million, a month-over-month increase of 92.66%, accounting for 41.2% of Lighter's total revenue.
Lighter's CEO recently also clearly stated: Lighter is the exclusive on-chain perpetual contract partner within the Robinhood wallet, following a long-term compliance path.
On the charts, $LIT rebounded after touching the 20-week moving average for the first time since June, with sentiment clearly warming up. FUD tells stories, revenue tells facts.
$LIT #Lighter The direction is right, but choosing the wrong target still leads to losses.
The logic for shorting ETH/BTC is straightforward: ETH has steadily declined 7% from 2,697, breaking the 2,620 support, with 2,650 turning into resistance, and ETF net outflows for five consecutive days; BTC's 83,000 is the ETF average cost level, repeatedly tested but not holding, with the market predicting a 67% probability of falling below 80,000 in October. After CPI landed at 3.7%, BTC broke 83,000, ETH dropped to 2,362, with bears dominating the pace.
Three judgments: Hold the ETH short position with a stop loss above 2,520; hold the BTC short position without adding, if 81,000 doesn't hold, look to 77,000.
Lesson: When liquidity is poor, only BTC and ETH have real liquidity; narratives are priced in last.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus I believe the probability of Netflix's quarterly earnings exceeding expectations is limited.
The market's real focus is no longer just on revenue and profit growth, but whether this growth can be sustained and whether the advertising business can fulfill its long-term valuation. After the subscription business matures, advertising monetization indeed provides new growth space, but the potential of the new business does not equal an overperformance in the current period.
Even if revenue meets expectations and profit margins continue to improve, it may not be enough to bring surprises. If the market has already priced in high growth expectations for the advertising business, then a seemingly good earnings report may only meet expectations rather than exceed them.
Therefore, I pay more attention to the actual monetization speed of the advertising business, the quality of user growth, and management's guidance for the next few quarters. Under high expectations, Netflix needs to provide stronger incremental evidence to truly break market expectations.
My judgment: this quarter is more likely to meet expectations rather than significantly exceed them. Zuck is aggressively taking private AI fitness classes, spending tens of billions of dollars a year, and now the coaches want to evaluate. 🏋️
The market used to be tolerant: advertisers made money fiercely, AI expenses were treated like lottery tickets, which made sense. Now the environment has changed, with sticky inflation and high interest rates, the market has entered an audit period—after burning so much money, is there any impact?
Meta has three assignments to submit.
First, whether ads have been fattened by AI. The recommendation algorithms and conversion rates—AI’s contribution to ad revenue must be reflected in financial reports, or else it’s pure money burning.
Second, how to monetize Llama. Open-sourcing brought an ecosystem, but influence can’t offset depreciation costs. AI glasses, enterprise models, cloud revenue sharing—there must be a real path to actual cash flow.
Third, capital expenditure discipline. GPUs bought immediately start depreciating, and the profit statement is a public execution every quarter: was the spending worth it? The numbers will tell.
Don’t forget the metaverse’s past mistakes—hundreds of billions spent for a "strategic adjustment" apology letter. The market has a good memory; the same script won’t get a second round of applause.
The AI arms race truly has no retreat, but "no retreat" doesn’t mean "guaranteed returns." This evaluation tests not only the technology but also Zuck’s storytelling credit balance. After messing up once, the second time he has to pay back with numbers. 📊
#Meta’s massive AI investment enters the return verification period #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight, bullish$DNA raised 15 million, with 98.6% of the tokens held by the dog whales, starting at 0.04 and pumped 600% to attract retail investors to take the bags. Amber Group is both an investor and a market maker, setting the price and dumping it themselves. A typical "AI narrative + big institution endorsement + extreme control of the supply" triple play. Go long but exit if support breaks; wait 24 hours before shorting.Eighty-one thousand has been tested three times, it's not that no one is buying
$BTC dropped to around eighty-one thousand, and was hammered three times in three days.
Each time it did not break below.
What is this price level:
The real market average is seventy-eight thousand, ETF average cost is eighty-one thousand five hundred.
The current price is stuck between these two lines.
Institutions themselves are also at a loss.
What others think:
ETF is flowing out, retail investors are selling, it looks like it's going to end.
I think this looks more like turnover.
In seventy-two hours, whales have accumulated 15,000 coins.
At the moment it was triggered:
The cost line was repeatedly tested, indicating sellers are around this area.
Buyers are also around this area.
Whoever runs out of coins first loses.
What we really need to wait for is not a price rebound.
It's the day when ETF flows switch from outflow to inflow.
#ETF and whale capital divergence, can BTC hold $80,000?
#$BTC #VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard
Today's comment Q: Before getting back in, which confirmation signal do you value the most?
A: The biggest trap in crypto over the years has been "mistaking a rebound for a reversal." Many so-called entry signals are actually just a pullback continuation or emotional recovery. The losses veterans have suffered mostly come from:
Seeing a strong bullish candle on the 4-hour or daily chart and rushing in;
Only to find it was just a rebound within a larger downtrend on a higher timeframe;
Ending up getting crushed again and the position forced out.
So now, before entering, my core confirmation is:
At the weekly or daily level, a key resistance level is effectively broken (not a wick, but a close above and hold).
On the pullback, the former resistance turns into support and does not break.
During the breakout and pullback, there is decent volume support (not a low-volume fake pump).
Only when all three conditions are met do I consider the "structure changed," rather than just emotional fluctuations.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #Fed's October rate hike probability drops to about 17%
[Old Leek Observation] The Fed's October rate hike probability drops to about 15%, but the market still doesn't dare to fully relax this time
The Fed's October meeting hasn't started yet, but market expectations for a rate hike have already cooled significantly.
According to market reports on October 16, CME FedWatch shows that traders' bets on the Fed raising rates by another 25 basis points this month have dropped to about 14.9%, down from around 27.7% the day before.
The key change lies in: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's latest speech did not release a clear signal of a rate hike, so the market readjusted its expectations.
For the crypto market, this counts as a relatively dovish macro signal. If expectations for further rate hikes continue to decline, the pressure from the dollar and interest rates may ease, and risk assets like BTC, ETH may also get some breathing room.
But don't rush to interpret this as "the good news has already landed."
US inflation remains an issue the Fed cannot avoid; less talk about future policy does not mean no rate hikes; a lower probability of a rate hike this month does not mean the risk of tightening within the year has completely disappeared.
I am more focused on the next two signals: one is whether inflation data will continue to pressure the Fed, and the other is whether $BTC can turn the improved macro sentiment into sustained price performance. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #Attack on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, oil transportation continues to be under pressure $CL
Oil passing through the strait has dropped from a daily average of 15.5 million barrels to 2.9 million barrels.
▪️ On 10/14, two Singapore-registered container ships were attacked in the strait, one caught fire and sank
▪️ On October 11, oil transported through the strait dropped to about 2.9 million barrels per day
▪️ In September, the daily average was about 15.5 million barrels, a drop of more than 80%
▪️ From 9/28 to 10/5, there were at least 12 attacks on oil and gas transport ships, the highest weekly total since the conflict began
▪️ On 10/5, an oil tanker was attacked, injuring 12 crew members
▪️ The US side said that on 10/12, it assisted in transporting over 19 million barrels through the strait in one day
The disagreement is not about the number of attacks, but whether the "transport pressure" is on the ships or the cargo.
The sunken ship was a container ship carrying container cargo; oil tankers follow different routes than container ships. What really affects oil prices is whether oil tankers can pass—the 2.9 million barrels figure does not include dark ships that have turned off their position signals, so the data itself is incomplete. The escort declaration and the sinking incident occurred simultaneously, indicating that who provides security for the passage remains unanswered.
The direction is to wait and see—only a continuous recovery in oil tanker traffic will be considered relief; if container ships continue to be attacked, insurance premiums will rise first.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight Optimistic about the advertising model, membership will eventually come to an endThe candlestick on October 15th deserves a separate mention.
To be serious. The candlestick on October 15th deserves a separate mention.
$DOGE hit a low of 0.0777 that day and closed back at 0.0812. The total volume was 2.03 billion coins, the highest since September 21st. The 4-hour candlestick at noon was even more obvious: a single volume of 1.24 billion coins, the price dipped down but then recovered, with a long lower shadow.
This data indicates two things. First, there really were buyers below 0.078. When the price dropped there, the buy orders not only held it but pushed the price back up, showing real money at work. Second, don’t rush to call the bottom. The RSI is still at 38, MACD is below the zero line, and the price is below all moving averages; the trend hasn’t strengthened yet, so one support doesn’t tell the whole story.
My view is simple: 0.0777 is the recent bottom line. If the close holds above it, look for recovery; if it closes below, honestly reassess. No guessing, just watch this one number.
Having watched the market for eleven years, the most valuable skill I’ve learned is to draw fewer conclusions. It’s a fact that there are buyers at the low; it’s also a fact that the trend hasn’t reversed. Both facts are here, the rest is up to time.😂 Besides CPI, the US September PPI also exploded! Inflation surged 6.3%, far exceeding the 5.4% expectation. Can the "soft landing" narrative still continue?
Let's look at the data first. The final demand PPI in September jumped 1.3% month-over-month, far surpassing the expected 0.5%, marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022. Year-over-year, it soared to 6.3%, the highest since December 2022, well above the 5.4% expectation.
Energy prices are the absolute main driver, with overall commodity prices rising 2.6%, the largest monthly increase on record. Among them, energy surged 10.8%, and gasoline skyrocketed 20.3% in a single month.
Core PPI was also active: excluding food, energy, and trade services, it rose 0.5% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year; excluding food and energy, the monthly increase was 0.7%, all higher than expected.
But the strange thing is the market's reaction: it actually didn't crash.
The S&P 500 closed up 0.33%, and the Nasdaq also closed up 0.08%. Why?
Because the day before, CPI had already shaken out the panic trades, and the market has become numb to "bad inflation news." Although the indexes didn't fall, funds are moving from AI and chip stocks to value stocks and small caps, risk aversion is rising, and the strong Bitcoin is also seeing a rebound. #Why is the first rebound after a sharp drop most likely to cause losses? BTC current increase +1.85%
During a major drop, the market is generally shrouded in fear, with clear risk perception. But once the price pulls up, FOMO sentiment spreads rapidly. Those who missed out rush to enter and catch up, while traders who originally planned to reduce positions, influenced by anchoring effect, start imagining a new round of upward trend. Much of this upward momentum is just short covering, not a return of long-term funds, so sustainability is questionable.
More than the rebound magnitude, three points are worth observing: whether ETFs can maintain continuous net inflows, whether spot trading volume expands in sync with the rebound, and whether the price can hold key levels after stabilizing and withstand pullbacks. If these three do not improve, a single bullish candle is insufficient to change the original judgment. If the market shows resilience against negative news, strong support on pullbacks, and continuous capital inflow, the view will be dynamically adjusted. I do not fixate on bullish or bearish positions.
Ask yourself: is your current judgment supported by capital signals, or is it driven by emotions triggered by the market? Once there is a volume breakout above key resistance, this observation logic no longer applies.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $NEAR has been quite strong recently, rising 14% in the past 24 hours, while $BTC only rose 2.2%. The correlation between the two is 0.68, with a beta of 2.88, indicating that $NEAR is leveraged following $BTC rather than moving independently. However, based on the beta, this BTC wave should only drive $NEAR up about 6%, so the remaining 7+ points are its own momentum, not just a simple follow-up rise. The price has now pulled back 3.95% from the previous high of $5.44, and it hasn't broken the previous low of $4.528 yet, so the structure remains intact. The open interest increased by 36.4% in 24 hours, and the funding rate is still positive, not turning negative, meaning bulls are still adding positions. The $5.185 level below has been tested 21 times, held 7 times, and broken 14 times; once it breaks, it’s likely to continue to test lower. If shorting, place a stop loss above $5.44; if it breaks below $5.185, I’ll wait and watch first, then look for opportunities once it stabilizes. Do you think this wave is a shakeout or will it continue to fall? #OKXTraderVoices $BTC stuck at 82000! The main force has swept out the bulls, who will be targeted next?
When the direction is unclear, controlling your hands is more valuable than anything.
News shows that short-term holders' positions have increased to 4.08 million coins, the highest since mid-June. New buyers' costs are concentrated between 82000 and 86000, with an average cost of about 74900. 74900 is the breakeven line for this group; falling below it will increase selling pressure.
Technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, BTC peaked at 87395 and has since declined, currently consolidating around 82000. Although MACD shows a golden cross, both DIF and DEA are below the zero line, indicating weak rebound momentum.
Capital flow:
Net outflow of 832 million in 24 hours, and a net outflow of 5.777 billion in the past 30 days. Continuous capital bleeding means the rebound lacks fuel.
Liquidation chart:
A large amount of long liquidation pressure is stacked between 73830 and 81750 below the current price, while short liquidations are between 83070 and 84390 above. The price is stuck in the middle, with risks on both sides.
Trading strategy:
Longs: Light long positions near 81750 to 82000 if stable, target around 83000 to 84000.
Shorts: Short positions under pressure near 83500 to 84000, target around 82000 to 81750.
Are you currently long or short? Comment below, and I'll help you decide whether to hold this position. Fan Xin will help you keep an eye on capital and liquidations, avoiding being market fuel.
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? In the past two days, I have been paying attention to some news related to CFX.
Domestically, Visa has been approved to prepare a bank card clearing institution within the country. Someone in the group shouted "Cross-border payment + Web3 is a big positive," saying CFX is going to soar.
But from a cross-border professional perspective, Visa holds a RMB bank card clearing license, clearing through traditional card organization networks, which has no direct relation to public chain tokens. Visa's overseas stablecoin settlement is true, but the premise for entering China is compliance, and the domestic crypto ban remains unchanged.
Looking at the market, CFX is currently priced at 0.05612, having previously surged from 0.037 to 0.078 before falling back. Now it is in an emotional digestion phase. So this news seems more like "narrative arbitrage" rather than a fundamental positive.
I will continue holding spot, but I will not chase the price high because of one piece of news. The long-term logic of cross-border Web3 can be discussed, but in the short term, we still have to watch policies and real adoption. $BTC $ZEC $CFX #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits a record high Today I came across some data: 81% of DOGE leveraged accounts on OKX are going long, and the long position ratio on Binance has also risen to 75.81%, increasing by nearly 6 points in one day.
81%. Think about it, people who use leverage are already bold, and now over 80% are betting on the same direction. Some say this is risky, with everyone crowded on one side, if it drops, there could be a chain liquidation.
But look at it from another angle, this wave of leveraged longs was added right after the market crash, when nearly $1 billion worth of positions were liquidated across the market. It’s not chasing highs in a good market, but bottom-fishing during others’ panic selling.
Also, I noticed a detail. The funding rate for perpetual contracts is only 0.01% every 8 hours, basically the exchange’s minimum standard, annualized at just 0.03%. On one hand, positions are heavily skewed long, but the funding rate hasn’t risen. What does this mean? It means the longs aren’t blindly rushing in; someone is steadily building positions, not rushing to pump or run.
$DOGE is now hovering around 0.082. With three-quarters of people aligned in direction, I’ll follow along and hold on for now. Yesterday, after the PPI surged and Bitcoin fell below 80,000 only to recover, today it has been grinding between 80,000 and 82,600 all day. The 24-hour high was 82,643, just $9 above this morning's rebound high of 82,634, meaning it hasn't moved much all day. The total 24-hour liquidations across the network dropped from $973 million yesterday to $320 million, and for the first time longs and shorts are nearly balanced—longs at $171 million, shorts at $150 million. The one-sided panic from yesterday has passed. Why say this? Because three things all played out in the least bad way. First, at 11:30 AM, Warsh's speech at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok came out, his last statement before the quiet period. He chose not to set any tone: refusing to predict whether there will be a rate hike in October, only saying the world is "roughly in line with expectations since the September meeting," and he affirmed the US investment boom—so the feared "hawkish tone and retest of 80,000" this morning did not happen. Second, at 4 PM, Deribit options settlement passed smoothly, with prices not "pinned" at 80,000, indicating market makers' hedging did not create new volatility. Third, the batch of leverage liquidated last night was real: 84,257 people were liquidated in 24 hours, the largest single trade was a $4.81 million BTC long on Binance. After the washout, today's long and short liquidations are balanced, and the leverage structure is actually healthier than yesterday. But don't be fooled by the emotional recovery. The fear and greed index has shifted from $NEAR's performance today is quite outstanding.
The price has reached around $5.29, with a 24-hour increase of over 15%, and a rise of more than 100% in the past 30 days.
This round of NEAR's surge is somewhat different from the past when it was purely about speculating on public chain performance. Now the project is developing around NEAR Intents, chain abstraction, and AI Agent.
NEAR Intents allow users to complete cross-chain operations by expressing transaction intentions, without having to manage the transaction processes of different networks step by step themselves.
If this mechanism can attract more real users, its significance to the NEAR ecosystem will be much greater than simply improving TPS.
However, NEAR had previously approached $6, then experienced a noticeable pullback. It has now returned to around $5.3, with a short-term focus on whether it can break through $5.5.
If it stabilizes again, there is still a chance to retest $6.
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother.
From past historical experience, after every US midterm election, Bitcoin often undergoes a deep pullback. Looking back at previous rounds of data: after the 2014 election, it dropped 46.7%, after the 2018 election, it dropped 50.6%, and after the 2022 election, it also dropped 14.9%. A dip after the election has almost become an unavoidable old script.
But this year's macro environment is completely different from the past. The September PPI year-on-year surged directly to 6.3%, the largest increase since 2022; the CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, and the core inflation data also exceeded market expectations. The shock on the energy side is being transmitted down the industrial chain, with diesel prices rising 21% and airfares jumping 5%. CME interest rate futures are betting that the probability of a rate hike in December is approaching 90%.
Inflation is not coming down, and rate hike expectations are rising, so the entire risk asset market is taking a hit. However, the current market structure is also different; the spot Bitcoin ETF has opened a new entry channel for corporate funds, and institutional participation is much higher than a few years ago. Some traders speculate that even if there is a pullback after the election, it is more likely to form a higher low than before, rather than directly hitting a cycle bottom.
History always rhymes when it repeats, but it never copies exactly the same.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $BTC $ETH $ZEC #MajiBro 6100 ETH Long Position, Looks Converged but Risk Remains High
6100 ETH, this position size is the core to observe Maji's current operation. Many are curious, after continuous market shocks, has he become more cautious?
This 25x full-position long was opened at an average price of $2398.52, with the current position value at $14,895,600, an unrealized profit of $264,600, and an estimated liquidation price of $2404.33. The account lost $586,600 in the past 7 days, recovered $116,800 in 24 hours, but overall still has a cumulative loss of $36,442,000. The position value corresponds to an ETH price of about $2442, only 1.54% away from the liquidation price. The unrealized profit looks good, but the tolerable drawdown space is very small.
You can see the position has shrunk, but it's unclear whether this is an active reduction or due to limited available funds. He still bets on an ETH rebound; the so-called "convergence" might have a completely different standard from ordinary people 😮. Where do you set your ETH limit orders or stop-loss points?
$ETH $BTC $SOL The bull is here, but we still need to be cautious. Looking at the liquidation data, the current market sentiment for $BTC $ETH #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？
From the latest liquidation stats, we can read some market psychology:
For BTC, in the past hour, long liquidations far exceed shorts, indicating a short-term sweep of longs upward; over 12-24 hours, long and short liquidations are nearly equal, showing the overall direction is still a tug-of-war with no clear winner.
ETH is even more interesting. In 24 hours, short liquidations dominate, with many bearish bets washed out, showing stronger short-term resilience on the long side.
Nearly 80,000 people liquidated today, with total liquidations exceeding $322 million, which shows the volatility is quite damaging.
With high leverage, even if you pick the right direction, a sudden spike can easily knock you out.
The market is never about who predicts best, but who survives longest. Don’t be greedy for short-term gains. I also have positions #we can learn from each other. BTC has already run today, then the market reset$