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《PPI前的午间切片》🧊
$BTC ：81602，-2.51%，费率+0.0058%，持仓524亿。价格降温，杠杆没降温；24h爆仓1.98亿，多头买单为主。💧
$ETH ：2384，-5.11%，费率+0.0029%，持仓303亿，爆仓2.88亿，超过BTC。但币安费率已到-0.0013%，大资金先转向，小平台散户还在补仓。⚠️
$SOL ：102.99，-3.95%，费率+0.0077%全场最高，持仓66.9亿，爆仓3161万，92%是多头。跌得不算最狠，信仰税最重。🔥
结论：费率仍正，多头未清；ETH费率转负、SOL多头密集爆仓，说明聪明钱撤、散户扛。PPI今晚20:30前，不加仓，管住手。BTC失守81000看80000，ETH 2350，SOL 100。🍵#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 BLUR 24h +17.84% is not a pump-and-dump, it’s the announcement-driven rally after OKX launched X-Perp on 10-13.
Fact chain: On 10-13 at 12:00, the announcement of BLURUSD X-Perp launch → from midnight to noon it stayed flat around 0.010 for over ten hours → 16:00 rose to 0.01048 → 17:00 closed at 0.01177 (volume 100 million, previous 12 bars average volume 5.2 million) → 18:00 closed at 0.01228 → 19:00 currently 0.01233. Three 1H candles up +17.6%, volume expanded about 20 times.
Why now? ① Two days after X-Perp launch, perp settled funds are in place, basis can be moved; ② At 18:00 the market was falling (BTC -2.78%, median -6.4%), BLUR increased volume against the trend = funds picking weak to push strong. Announcement → settlement → pump, is the standard three-step pattern for OKX launching X-Perp.
But 4H confirmation is not yet done, 0.013 (today’s high 0.01313) area is resistance. For those chasing in: who will take the position in this announcement-driven rally?
What do you think, will BLUR surge to 0.014 or consolidate back at 0.010? $BLUR⚡ $BTC at 81,000 USD (400-day moving average) is the critical line between bulls and bears. On October 9, 12, and 15, it tested the same support area three times, each time quickly rebounding but with diminishing strength. Holding this level suggests a rebound; breaking it could see a drop to the 80,000 psychological level or even 78,000.
⚡ $ETH ETF has seen net outflows for 10 consecutive days, about 14. Early large whales who bought in are transferring 6,369 ETH (about 2,300) to exchanges, with a dense sell wall resistance zone at 2,382 above.
⚡ $ZEC peaked at 1,698 and has retraced about 36%.
🔥 Macro: US September CPI year-over-year rose 3.7%, exceeding expectations (previous 3.4%). The probability of a Fed rate hike in October surged to 47%. The Fear & Greed Index dropped sharply from 62 to 52, shifting the market from "greedy" to "neutral."
#US CPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, PPI test tonight
#TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit record highs
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus That is a fifteen-story cantilever structure with its load-bearing column removed, the facade still draped with banners of billion-dollar orders, yet the foundation is already leaking. On October 14th, CoreWeave's stock price plummeted by 15.46%, and the yield on bonds maturing in 2032 briefly broke through the 15% structural red line—in construction terms, this means the client looks up from the ground and finds the main structure's settlement rate exceeds the design margin, so all subcontractors simultaneously start dismantling the scaffolding.
I must clarify one thing: order backlog is not the foundation; orders are just renderings. Having $10 billion in backlog contracts hanging there looks impressive, but it's merely a blueprint not yet poured. What truly determines whether this building can stand is the concrete—that is, whether computing power delivery can be converted into revenue on schedule, whether revenue can be converted into operating cash flow, and cash flow is the only thing that can repay the $52.1 billion in debt and lease liabilities. Carrying this amount on the books at the end of June is like building a super high-rise on soft soil with high leverage reinforcement. When interest rates rise, financing costs become lateral wind loads, and you have to recalculate every floor.
The leader says the market reaction is irrational. But structural engineering never accepts "irrational" as a defense. The wind won't stop blowing just because you believe the building is stable. Long-term orders can indeed support debt repayment—provided that the four pillars of delivery schedule, power allocation, rack installation rate, and customer fulfillment willingness are all in place simultaneously. If any one of these develops shear cracks, the internal force redistribution of the entire building will transfer pressure onto bondholders. A 15% yield is not sentiment; it is the market reassessing the building's ultimate load capacity.
Thermal inflation and weakness in the tech sector simultaneously reduce foundation bearing capacity and increase wind load values. At this time, all similar projects must be compared laterally: whose capital structure is cleaner, whose delivery curve is more verifiable, whose counterparties in orders have stronger credit. Financial pressure never rests on just one building; it transmits along the supply and credit chains to adjacent plots, causing the entire development area's financing window to narrow simultaneously.
I never look at renderings when reviewing blueprints; I only look at reinforcement drawings and geological survey reports. The entire problem of this company can be summed up in one sentence: it signed contracts at the speed of design but must repay debt at the speed of construction. #coreweavestockbonddrop$SKHYNIX Storage stocks haven't finished falling yet? Be careful when bottom-fishing now, you might catch it halfway down!
Today a brother asked me, with SanDisk falling so much, is it time to bottom-fish? $SNDK
My advice is clear: don't rush!
A big drop doesn't mean it's hit the bottom. Especially in the current market, blindly entering is very likely to catch it halfway down.
This round of weakness in the storage sector isn't without reason. Domestic storage market competition pressure, the emotional shift from early buyback completion, plus continued pressure on the Korean storage sector, have led market funds to reassess storage stock valuations.
Last night’s CPI data exceeded expectations, the dollar strengthened, interest rate expectations heated up, and high-valuation tech stocks face increased pressure.
From the market perspective, lows keep moving down, bears still dominate, and a clear stop-fall signal hasn't appeared yet.
So my thinking remains unchanged: don't rush to bottom-fish for now, prioritize watching for rebound shorting opportunities.
Don't always try to guess the lowest point. Until the trend reverses, cheap might only be relative.
Wait for a rebound, watch the resistance, confirm weakening, then consider entering. Opportunities are never lacking; the important thing is not to rush to prove you can catch the absolute bottom when the trend is downward.
#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, earnings hit record high #US CPI exceeds expectations, rises to 3.7%, PPI test tonight #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus On the radar echo map, a rare temperature inversion layer appeared over Manhattan. On October 13, Mellon Bank in New York put a two-year US Treasury bond into a private ledger, with settlement taking only a few minutes, followed by access to overnight repo financing. This was the first tokenized asset transaction on a triparty repo platform. On the same day, DRW and Marex exchanged total return swaps linked to tokenized bond indices on another chain, while Ondo's tokenized Treasury product scale has already crossed the $3 billion threshold.
I was staring at this set of data in the duty room, and my first reaction was not the price, but the air pressure.
The traditional repo market has long been in a hot and low-pressure state—collateral is moved back and forth among custodians, clearinghouses, and brokers, with each handoff requiring a T+1 waiting period for the cumulonimbus clouds to clear. The low turnover rate of collateral is like poor vapor transport; naturally, funding costs are held aloft and cannot come down. Now that someone has moved Treasuries onto distributed ledgers, compressing the settlement cycle from one day to a few minutes, it is equivalent to opening a channel on a front line, instantly connecting the vapor. This is not cooling down; it is changing the circulation structure of the entire atmospheric layer.
But meteorology has taught me one thing: localized strong convection never means the entire weather system is transforming. There are currently three key variables in the observation that have not yet converged.
First, cross-platform liquidity. Ondo, Canton, and private ledgers each form independent air masses without stable jet streams between them. Can tokenized Treasuries on one platform serve as qualified collateral on another? If not, these are just three isolated thunderstorm cells, not a front line.
Second, compliance and risk control. Penetrative regulation of tokenized assets is equivalent to equipping the storm with a radiosonde; the problem lies in who launches it, who owns the data, and whether there is a manual observation backup plan in case of network outages. The finality of on-chain settlement and legal finality are currently two pressure layers at different altitudes.
Third, collateral haircut rates. Whether tokenized Treasuries can receive the same discount treatment as native Treasuries under stress scenarios determines if they are truly low-cost funding or just high-cost financing repackaged.
The price movement of US stock token targets like $xMSFT essentially serves as a short-term forecast for this circulation adjustment. Its amplified volatility indicates the market is engaging in high-frequency games over the three variables above—funds are betting that tokenization can reduce financing costs, but the risk model has yet to provide stable boundary conditions.
My observation station currently issues a yellow warning: the system pattern is already in place, energy transmission is being established, but vertical wind shear remains large; any compliance fault or liquidity gap could break this front into afternoon thermal convection.
The radiosonde data at 2 a.m. has not yet been transmitted back; the balloon is still rising. #tokenizedtreasuryrepoPPI Countdown: BTC Shows Signs of Accumulation, But Why Can't a Reversal Be Confirmed Yet?
Before tonight's US PPI release, BTC and ETH saw short-term net spot inflows of approximately $18.45 million and $15.6 million respectively, indicating that funds are attempting to catch the dip at lower levels. However, when extending the observation to 4-hour and 24-hour periods, the overall capital flow remains weak, with SOL continuously facing selling pressure.
This means localized buying is warming up, but it does not equate to a market reversal. Short-term funds may be positioning early or merely trying to bottom-fish; the key is whether the buying can be sustained after the data release.
The market expects PPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year. If the data exceeds expectations, concerns over inflation and high interest rates may intensify, putting BTC's downside support to the test; if below expectations, risk appetite could recover, but any rebound still requires volume confirmation.
Next, focus on three key points: whether BTC spot buying can continue, whether ETH can hold key support levels, and whether SOL's capital flow can turn from negative to positive.
There is probing by funds before the data, but the direction only becomes clear after. Don't mistake short-term accumulation for a trend reversal; the real signal is sustained buying, not a momentary inflow. $BTC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 🚨 The market is all red, but $ZK has surged 12% against the trend! Is the technical breakthrough real, or is capital pushing it behind the scenes?
Brothers, today's $ZK is indeed a bit different!
The market is still under pressure, and fellow L2 projects $ARB and $OP are weak, but $ZK has stubbornly forged an independent trend. The catalyst behind it is not simple: with just one graphics card, it generated proofs for 7,200 consecutive Ethereum blocks, and reportedly 99% of the proofs can be completed within 10 seconds.
The technical strength is indeed impressive, but strong technology does not necessarily mean the token is worth chasing! 👀
What I care more about is whether there is real ecological demand and token value support behind the lively technical narrative?
📉 First, the ecosystem fundamentals still need improvement.
ZKsync Era's current DeFi TVL is about $15 million, which still has a significant gap compared to the ecosystems of ARB and OP. Technical breakthroughs can bring attention, but whether it can further convert into users, capital, and real applications is the key to whether the subsequent market can sustain.
⚠️ Second, token value capture still has uncertainties.
The previously planned cross-chain fee mechanism has not been officially launched after the v31 adjustment. In other words, technical progress does not mean token demand will grow simultaneously. It still depends on when the specific mechanism will be implemented and whether it can truly generate value.
🐳 Third, the concentration of holdings is worth watching.
Currently, the top ten addresses hold nearly 51% of $ZK. Such concentrationTSMC's Q3 revenue hit a new high again, and the earnings report will be released tonight. What exactly does this have to do with SanDisk? Pharaoh directly said, TSMC is the "road builder," and SanDisk is the "water seller by the roadside." The wider the road is built, the more water is sold, but when the road is being built, dust flies everywhere, and the water seller has to take a mouthful of dust first. Let's first look at how strong TSMC's report card is. Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, about 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, setting a single-quarter historical high and breaking records for the sixth consecutive quarter. Wall Street expects net profit to be about 746.3 billion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year surge of 65%, again setting a historical high. Revenue for the first nine months has already reached 3.89 trillion New Taiwan dollars, directly surpassing the entire previous year. So is this good or bad news for SanDisk? In the short term, it's an "emotional collateral damage," but in the long term, it's a "demand confirmation." Let's first look at the short-term pitfall. After TSMC's Q3 revenue was announced, its stock price actually fell by 1.4%. Why? Because September's single-month revenue dropped 0.6% month-on-month, and the market felt the "good news was fully priced in." Even more painful is that when TSMC's stock rose, memory stocks fell. On October 12, Micron fell more than 2%, SanDisk nearly 2%, SK Hynix and Western Digital all declined. Market funds are rotating within the semiconductor sector, flowing towards TSMC's advanced process, while memory stocks are being drained. But the long-term logic holds. TSMC's revenue growth is driven by AI chip foundry demand, with customers like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom placing massive orders. For every AI chip produced, a bunch of accompanying components must be matched behind it.$BTC hasn't crashed because retail investors are out of chips; now retail investors are all playing with altcoins📊 History always astonishingly similar? The "Midterm Election Curse" of the US stock market and Bitcoin
Looking back at the past few rounds:
🔹 2014: BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterm election
🔹 2018: BTC bottomed 39 days after the midterm election
🔹 2022: BTC bottomed 13 days after the midterm election
From 71 days to 39 days to 13 days, the data doesn't lie:
1️⃣ Institutionalization accelerates: capital no longer waits for long certainty, front-running becomes the norm.
2️⃣ Deepening macro linkage: the policy implementation period after the midterm election is the moment of liquidity restructuring. An interesting phenomenon: the bottoming time seems to be getting earlier.
Will there be new changes in 2026?
But I am more concerned about three questions:
1️⃣ Has macro liquidity started to improve?
2️⃣ When BTC falls, is open interest increasing or decreasing?
3️⃣ When the market is generally bearish, does the price start to refuse new lows?
If the price falls and open interest decreases, it may indicate deleveraging; if price then stabilizes and active buying strengthens, it is worth further observing reversal opportunities. Here’s something you might not know: $STRK vs $NEAR quantum-resistant narrative comparison
Both focus on post-quantum security, but their technical approaches are completely different.
$STRK relies on the STARK proof system, fundamentally based on hash functions rather than elliptic curves, giving the proof layer native quantum resistance. Coupled with native account abstraction, the account signature logic can be upgraded independently without a hard fork.
Its drawback is that it is currently still an Ethereum L2, with underlying settlement security dependent on ETH. The team plans to transition to an independent L1, aiming to fully implement quantum resistance by 2027. Market hype focuses on the dual narrative of ZK + post-quantum, with the ecosystem centered on ZK applications.
$NEAR is an L1 public chain that has already launched on mainnet the NIST-standard ML-DSA lattice-based post-quantum signature. Users can rotate post-quantum keys per transaction without migrating addresses, making it the first mainstream public chain to implement account-level post-quantum signatures.
However, its consensus layer has not yet completed post-quantum upgrades, with the account layer leading and further upgrades pending. An additional highlight is support for quantum-secure signatures on cross-chain assets, with a narrative leaning toward general L1 infrastructure.
Differences at the transaction layer: STRK’s post-quantum advantage lies at the proof layer, emphasizing a long-term cryptographic security story; NEAR’s account signature feature is already live and verifiably implemented.Most underrated line in TSMC's report is the guide. Next-quarter revenue is guided to $52.3–54.3B vs $46.7B this quarter, with margins of 65–67%. If AI capex were peaking, that guide wouldn't look like this.
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit Hello everyone, I am Mosheng. In the crypto circle, I aimed to profit 10,000 U and have currently reached 1,800 U. Last night when the data came out, I wanted to try bottom fishing but found the rebound was not great, so I switched to shorting a position casually with a small size on $KORU. After all, it has dropped so much that I don't believe South Korea won't come out to rescue it.
This round has been continuously falling since the year's high point, mainly due to HBM's profit expectations being downgraded, market concerns about AI capital expenditure slowing down, and rising risks in storage supply; combined with US CPI exceeding expectations, Fed rate hike expectations rising, US Treasury yields climbing, and foreign capital continuously selling large amounts of Korean semiconductor heavyweight stocks. During the index's continuous decline, KORU relies on daily reset leverage, amplifying the decline threefold, while continuously generating net asset value loss, making it much harder to rebound and recover.
US Treasury yields rise, rate hike expectations strong → USD strong, foreign capital exits Korean stocks → KORU must fall
Rate cuts, liquidity easing → Korean stocks rebound, KORU shows strongest explosive power #US CPI exceeded expectations rising to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test CZ said on X that hardware wallets should use transparent cases in the future. The background is this month's reseller supply chain incident, with on-chain statistics showing about $86 million to $93 million stolen, involving over 300 wallets. The tampered devices had their batteries thinned and replaced with boards containing LTE modules, with intact packaging and passing official inspections. Transparent cases can cover the invisible weak points. What is overlooked is that the implanted parts can be hidden under the chips, and ordinary people cannot distinguish them by looking at the circuit board. It has been confirmed that all losses came from the same reseller, the problem lies in the channel. Trezor plans to cut off third-party resellers before January next year, and OneKey will cut off 95% of resellers. CZ's affiliated YZi Labs invested in OneKey, so this viewpoint should be taken with some reservation. I predict that next quarter manufacturers will mainly promote official direct sales, and transparent cases will at most be optional models. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
TSMC's Q3 estimated revenue is NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a new record high. This is fundamentally driven by AI computing power orders boosting advanced process volume. However, the high revenue growth is only a scale phenomenon; the real test of profit quality is whether the gross margin can hold within the 65%-67% range. Currently, TSMC is caught in a production expansion paradox: the stronger the AI demand, the higher the capital expenditure, depreciation, and overseas factory costs, compounded by yield losses from ramping up the 2nm new process, continuously eroding profit elasticity. The high concentration of AI orders also hides risks of customer bargaining power and demand cycle fluctuations. If the gross margin approaches the upper limit of the range, it proves that the pricing power of advanced processes is sufficient to cover the additional costs; if the gross margin is under pressure, even with impressive revenue, net profit growth will significantly lag behind revenue, and the market will reassess the sustainability of this AI dividend cycle. #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus Tesla's latest delivery data is better than market expectations, temporarily dispelling concerns about continued weakening demand. However, the focus of capital has shifted from "how many cars were sold" to whether the gross margin can be restored. Previously, to boost orders, Tesla continuously adopted a price-cutting strategy, a typical volume-for-price trade-off. Although delivery data has warmed up, the profit per vehicle has been compressed, which is currently the biggest point of contention.
The core market question now: after sales rebound, can Tesla escape the price war and stabilize or even raise the vehicle gross margin? If Q3 financial report shows margin recovery and cost control exceeds expectations, it will drive TSLA strength and boost Nasdaq growth stock sentiment.
Mid-to-long-term positive factors are FSD, Robotaxi, and energy storage business. FSD subscription is high-margin software revenue; energy storage business has significantly higher gross margin than vehicles and is a future source of profit elasticity; but short-term contribution volume is limited, making it difficult to quickly offset vehicle profit pressure.
Transmission to crypto market: Tesla is a high-elasticity Nasdaq stock, and its stock price fluctuations will drive overall risk appetite. If earnings fall short of expectations, it may trigger valuation cuts in growth stocks, indirectly suppressing high-beta assets like BTC and ETH; if earnings exceed expectations, it will provide short-term support sentiment. However, this is cross-market linkage and it is difficult to have an independent trend.
Follow-up focus: vehicle gross margin, free cash flow, and management's statements on subsequent pricing strategy and FSD commercialization. Delivery data is only a leading signal; profit indicators are the key to determining capital attitude. $BTC $ETH 美国通胀数据高于预期，美债收益率走强，美元拉升直接抽走市场流动性。ETH昨日跌6.03%，最低摸到2318，收在2357附近。SOL同步走弱，报100.86，一周跌超7%。衍生品市场多单连环清算，期货未平仓量收缩，杠杆率下降，抛压来自被动平仓而非主动做空。
刚把岗亭窗台上的保温杯拧开，水还有点烫。
ETH现价2366.9。日线MACD金叉向上，RSI从超卖区反弹。但清算地图显示2350到2400区间堆着大量多头爆仓单，向上扫的过程中会先触发一轮清算抛压，短线有回调需求。2400是硬阻力。
操作上，回踩2340到2355区间接多，防守放2318下方，这个位置是昨日低点，破了就认错。第一止盈2400，第二止盈2460。若直接放量突破2400并站稳，可以加仓追多，目标2500。空单不碰，日线金叉结构下逆势空盈亏比太差。
长期趋势没坏，短期就是清算驱动的洗盘。控制仓位，别在2350附近追高。
对讲机响了，先去巡一圈。
$ETH
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
@OKX星球 PPI data is about to be released, BTC has fallen below 81,000, but open interest has quietly surged to 2.58 billion. The lower the price falls, the more leverage increases; this is even scarier than the long-short ratio.
In simple terms: $BTC current price 81,000, 24h low 80,168, open interest 2.583 billion, funding rate still positive, longs are still paying shorts. $ETH dropped to 2,363, open interest rose from 1.35 billion to 1.54 billion, people keep adding positions. $SOL is the worst, at 102.26, with a low of 100.46, funding rate has turned negative, shorts are starting to collect money, longs can’t even afford the interest.
What does this mean? Longs haven’t fled, they’re still holding on. Price falls, open interest rises, a typical bloodied hold. If tonight’s 20:30 PPI exceeds expectations, these added longs will be the first wave of fuel. Once the liquidation dense zone is broken, the chain reaction will be fiercer than last night.
I’m not bearish; in this market, opening positions is a gamble on size. Let leverage clean itself out first, wait for liquidation data to cool down and market volatility to narrow, then consider entering with the trend.
Key levels: BTC 80,000/78,000, ETH 2,300/2,200, SOL 100/95. Don’t rush to catch the falling knife below these round numbers.
How are you planning to act on tonight’s PPI?
#USCPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, tonight’s PPI faces another test
#BTC Treasury preferred stock financing heats up
#ETH fluctuates after hitting $2,500 #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits a record high
$LINK's market action is really awkward. The 9-day cooperation has landed, and Stellar's data service is officially up and running. Normally, this kind of news would be enough to push the price up, but instead, it dropped 6.8% in 24 hours and 7% over 7 days, sitting right at the 7-day low, with volume only 1.4 times the usual.
Good news causing a sell-off boils down to two things: either the news was already priced in long ago, with smart money having exited after a 10% rise in 30 days and 46% in 90 days; or this asset doesn't react to news at all and only follows Bitcoin's moves. Today, Bitcoin fell below 81k, 180,000 people were liquidated, and the whole market is forced to reduce positions, so who has spare funds to buy on good news?
I lean towards the first explanation. Real good news was already discussed in the market three weeks ago; those popping champagne when the announcement comes out are often the last to enter.
Let's see if the 12.02 level can hold. For a rebound, we need to see volume pick up and prices recover. This current low-volume, slow decline can't hold. $LINK Predict Fun's single-day capture fees reached $313,000, surpassing $300,000 in a single day again after the World Cup final day, ranking fourth in BNB Chain protocol fees.
Many prediction market platforms gradually lost activity or even ceased operations after the World Cup, but Predict Fun experienced a significant secondary growth.
The core driving force behind this is the short-term fluctuation market represented by BTC 5min, contributing over 60% of the fees.
In the most recent full trading day, Predict Fun's Crypto 5min market set a new record for single-day trading volume, surpassing Polymarket comprehensively in the three core metrics of trading volume, unique trading users, and number of trades.
Additionally, Predict Fun is also continuously growing in the 15min market, TradFi, and Esports sectors, with the 15min market particularly gradually competing for Polymarket's market share The market sentiment has definitely shifted. Big Brother Maji used to basically go all-in on longs, but this time his total contract position is about 59.76 million U, split directly into three parts—short BTC, short HYPE, and long ETH. He's playing a left-right ambidextrous game. Breaking it down more clearly: On the BTC side, a 40x short opened at 84070, with an unrealized profit of about 220,000 U, and funding fees actually earned 56,600 U, so the account looks favorable; but with 40x leverage, even a small price bounce can hit him hard, so don’t just focus on the unrealized profit. On the ETH side, a 25x long opened at 2541, with an unrealized loss of 340,000 U. The market is weak but he’s stubbornly holding the long position—either betting on a rebound or using it for portfolio hedging. That strong spike this morning, I seriously suspect it was aimed at his position. HYPE is the harshest: a 5x short opened at 65.8, with an unrealized loss of 4.21 million U, funding fees collected 1.03 million U, which helps ease the cost, but price volatility doesn’t show mercy. So this is not a full bearish stance; it’s clearly a directional differentiation between coins. Going forward, watch three things: whether BTC can stabilize, whether ETH can rise, and whether this HYPE short can hold up. You can observe the smart money’s positions, but don’t copy blindly—what you should ponder is why they are positioning this way, not just follow because they buy.The storage sector surged fiercely some time ago, and now it is falling just as sharply.
AI demand growth is a fact, but stock prices have already priced in expectations prematurely, along with the impact of risk-free assets.
SanDisk's earnings report on October 29 is approaching, and the market has already started to reprice.
I choose to continue holding short positions, bearish in the short term, but that does not mean I am pessimistic about the storage industry in the long run.
No matter how good the performance is, it depends on how much valuation the market has given in advance.
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Core公链何去何从
10 月 15 日 17:02 的欧易截图：CORE/USDT 永续 0.01798，24 小时 −2.49%，最低 0.01712，成交额 155.81 万 USDT。EMA5 0.01812、EMA10 0.01839、EMA20 0.01878 三条线全压在价格上面，短均线在长均线之下，是标准空头排列；MACD 的 DIFF −0.00047、柱体 −0.00018，还在零轴下方；OI 缩到 129 万美元，已经低于副图 159 万到 192 万那档刻度。下面唯一还能看的线，是今天刚打出来的 0.01712。
我 0.02088 开的多，而 0.02088 正是图上那条上方压力线。名义跌 13.9%，按 5 倍杠杆折算到本金约 −69.4%，不含资金费，屏幕上的收益额是 −195.93。要回到 0.02088，得涨 16.1%。
位置比跌幅要命。btc126 今天写的距离历史最低 8.80%，那个低点在 7 月 28 日，是 0.0167。
三个没想明白的地方。2025 年 12 月 22 日 Core 基金会发布 2026 路线图，说靠 AMP、BTC LST、SatPay、ETF/ETP 的收入来回购 CORE，钱到现在没看到流回来。实际年通胀 35.73%，协议定的目标是 3% 到 5%。9 月验证者超额领币那次，硬分叉不回滚、五家交易所停充提，官方答应发的技术复盘到今天没公开，而 10 月 1 日已经把出块交给独立运营商。
三个问题留给大家。
回购什么时候能拿出可核对的链上数据？
跌破 0.01712 去摸 0.0167，你叫它风险还是机会？
一笔没交代的超发，值几分信任？
我自己在 0.02088 做多，这篇不说下一步。数据均有来源和截数时点，不构成投资建议，合约含杠杆与强平风险。#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report?
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
Latest data shows TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion TWD, approximately $46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion TWD, which if realized would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI boom, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm capacity being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, watch if management will raise full-year revenue growth guidance and increase capital expenditures.
▶️ The Texas fab drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona fab is still unresolved, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time.
Looking ahead:
▶️ Short-term caution for potential profit-taking
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Long-term moat is very deep
Tech giants' self-developed chips still rely on TSMC's technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend.This market is really brutal and heart-wrenching!
$SKHYNIX has been plunging these past two days, dropping nearly 15% in 24 hours, now barely holding around $939. After last night's CPI data release, it just tanked like it took a laxative.
The worst hit are the big players! From last night until now, three major whales got absolutely hammered, closing nearly $3.88 million worth of long positions combined, with actual losses hitting $887,000. Some cut losses actively with tears, others tried to hold on but got forcibly liquidated in batches. Now all three accounts are wiped out and gone—it's a bloodbath!
But here's the interesting part. This plunge pushed the funding rate into negative territory for a while, indicating panic selling was rampant. Yet this morning, bottom-fishing funds rushed back in aggressively, flipping the funding rate from negative to positive in just two hours—intense battle going on.
Looking at the liquidation chart, there's still over $5 million worth of long liquidation exposure lying around $888, just about 5.5% below the current price. If it can't hold and dips further, expect another chain reaction of liquidations. The long-side risk is far from over.$ETH $BTC 🔥 10.15 Evening Report
On the same day, $BTC $ETH $SOL all weakened together.
But the reasons behind the three bearish candles are different.
Different reasons for the decline:
$BTC is driven by sentiment selling, no large holders fleeing on-chain.
There is still support near the 400-day moving average.
$ETH is a capital withdrawal:
ETF net outflows continue, wallet balances are moving out.
Some are actively reducing positions, not just following the drop.
$SOL is pressured by contracts:
Perpetual shorts are increasing, prices pushed down by leverage.
Spot outflows are limited, no large-scale chip turnover.
Just looking at the order of decline can easily mistake sentiment for trend.
Distinguishing the source helps identify where the noise is. #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test When CPI heats up, the whole market takes a hit. $ZEC, $SOL, and $BTC are all falling, but the patterns of decline are completely different.
$ZEC is falling the hardest. Down 12% in 24h, current price 1096, position volume shrinks by 13.6%, nearly all of the 19 million liquidations are long positions. Funding rate annualized near 10%, leverage is too crowded, any reversal triggers a stampede. 1000 is the last line of defense.
$SOL is dragged down by funding but has the strongest fundamentals. Current price 102.3, down 5% in 24h, ETF has been selling for 7 consecutive days. Q3 application revenue is 365 million, up 42.6% year-over-year; on October 21, Alpenglow launched on mainnet, confirmation time reduced from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. Breaking 100 looks toward 90.
$BTC is the most resilient. Current price 80927, down 10 points less than ZEC, whale holdings at 3.03 million, a near one-year high. But USD spot is withdrawing, ETF outflows last week were 680 million. Breaking 80000 looks toward 78000.
The essence of the three: ZEC is paying down leveraged debt, SOL is waiting for funds to return, BTC’s funds have not fully left. There’s another round tonight, will it continue to fall or stop? We’ll watch as it unfolds. #BTC spot ETF net outflow again, can institutional buying warm up? #US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit record highs #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus #TSMCQ3RecordProfit
TSMC just delivered another record quarter. The margin story is more nuanced.
TSMC reported Q3 revenue of NT$1.494T, up 50.9% YoY, and net profit of NT$763.06B, up 68.7%. Net profit set a quarterly record and beat the NT$746.34B LSEG SmartEstimate cited by CNBC.
The technology mix shows where demand is moving:
· 2nm reached 8% of wafer revenue, up from 3% in Q2
· 3nm contributed 33%, followed by 5nm at 28% and 7nm at 10%
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit $TSM $xTSM# TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High
TSMC's Q3 financial report is out, with explosive numbers, but the stock price fell. Perhaps expectations were too high, and the stock price has already been overdrawn.
Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit rose 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, setting a quarterly record and surpassing market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes overall account for 79%. Demand for AI chips continues to support performance, making this a very solid foundation.
However, the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies in the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, if gross margins decline, it indicates that cost pressures from advanced processes are eating into profits. Additionally, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is something to watch going forward. #Strive increased its BTC holdings by 2,822 coins in two days, with total holdings exceeding 35,000 BTC $BTC
In eight weeks, it grew by 62%, while the largest holder increased by less than 1%.
▪️ Added 12,527 BTC from 8/14 to 10/9, a holding growth of about 62%
▪️ During the same period, Strategy's holdings rose from 840,447 to 848,250 BTC, an increase of less than 1%
▪️ Increased by another 2,822 BTC in two days, with holdings exceeding 35,000 BTC
▪️ Metaplanet sold 10,000 BTC in Q3 but bought back 11,000 BTC, a net increase of 1,000 BTC
▪️ Twenty One has not increased holdings since July 2025, and MARA has remained basically flat since May
The divergence is not about who holds the most coins, but about "holding rankings" in terms of stock volume and "growth rankings" in terms of incremental volume.
840,447 to 848,250 reflects changes in stock volume, while 12,527 versus 20,246 reflects changes in incremental volume—two completely opposite rankings within the same industry.
The direction is to watch — small-cap companies continuing to absorb incremental volume is the real trend; if the large-cap company accelerates again, the pattern returns to stock volume.🔥盘面解读｜韩股重挫，存储板块承压，今晚美股开盘预判
配图核心信息：韩国KOSPI盘中大跌超6%，触发Sidecar程序化卖盘暂停机制；SK海力士大跌超8%、三星电子跌近7%，连带日经225跌超3%，日韩芯片股集体走弱。$SNDK $MU
✅事件逻辑
韩股本轮杀跌核心就是半导体存储板块，市场担忧长鑫存储技术突破带来长期供给冲击，叠加通胀、利率预期扰动，资金集中抛售存储芯片标的。三星、SK海力士作为全球DRAM两大龙头大跌，会直接给美股存储股（美光MU、闪迪SNDK）带来情绪传导压力。
📊今晚美股开盘推演
1. 盘前情绪：存储板块大概率低开承压。日韩存储巨头大跌，属于板块负面情绪外溢，美光、闪迪开盘容易受拖累。但要区分：这是远期竞争预期利空，并非企业当期业绩暴雷。
2. 分化机会
美光MU：业务覆盖DRAM，受韩股下跌联动冲击更强，波动更大。
闪迪SNDK：主营NAND闪存，和DRAM赛道无直接竞争。若资金理性区分赛道，后续有机会走出相对抗跌行情。
3. 大盘变量
不能只看韩股，美债收益率、今晚PPI数据、纳指整体情绪，影响力同样很大。如果美债收益率回落，会对冲一部分芯片板块的恐慌。TSMC's Q3 financial report is out, with explosive numbers, but the stock price fell. Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, net profit increased 68.7% year-over-year to 763.1 billion, setting a new quarterly high and exceeding market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes overall account for 79%. AI chip demand continues to support performance, this fundamental base is very solid. But the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies in the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, if gross margin declines, it indicates that cost pressures in advanced processes are eating into profits. Additionally, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is something to watch next. For BTC, this is not direct, but the underlying logic is connected. TSMC is a core supplier of AI computing infrastructure; its revenue and profit validate that AI demand is real, and the narrative of the computing power economy remains intact. BTC's long-term logic as the underlying anchor still holds. However, the weak gross margin guidance indicates that the cost of burning cash is rising, affecting the entire semiconductor chain.$SKHYNIX SNDK $SKHYNIX Hynix starts to consolidate while SanDisk plunges sharply!!!
Institutions begin to support Hynix, so Chai didn't dare to short it, but this time Chai plans to short SanDisk hard.
Recently, Chinese manufacturers have substantially overtaken; Yangtze Memory has completed overtaking in the NAND market, and ChangXin Memory's breakthrough in the DRAM field has caused panic across the entire sector, coupled with many institutions lowering target prices, leading to a brief loss of market confidence in SanDisk.
Additionally, continuous insider selling at SanDisk and CPI data exceeding market expectations, the dollar appreciating, and tech stocks collectively under pressure. In the short term, Hynix has triggered a protective cushion mechanism; institutions start to support the stock, and retail investors and whales begin to look forward to extra shareholder returns after the Q3 earnings release.
SNDK current price is suitable for entering short positions: 1348, first target 1322, stop loss 1400. The above is personal sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit record highs #US CPI exceeds expectations, rising to 3.7%, PPI test tonight $NEAR 永续50倍空单，5.075开，现4.563，浮盈+504.43%。
思路很朴素：顶部横盘缩量到极致，波动率压到地板，说明筹码准备派发。一根放量阴线直接把价格从 5.075 砸下来，典型的破位信号，追空不追多。50倍杠杆，止损 5.2。走势一路向下，不给任何舒服的下车位，盈利直接起飞。
这位置我打算先减一半仓位落袋，剩下的一半止损提到 4.8 让利润跑。4.2 能放量跌破就继续拿，跌不破就全平走人。$BTC $ETH #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Netflix guided Q3 revenue growth of 12% and an operating margin of 33.2%. The year-ago margin was 28.2%, but that quarter included a $619M Brazil tax charge, so the comparison flatters it. A beat or miss hinges on ads. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins The weakest link has never been the direction, but rather that everyone refuses to exit first when positions get too crowded. Guess who’s suffering the most now—the shorts or the ones chasing highs? I came across Maji’s perpetual position update and stared at those numbers for a long time. Overall, it’s still a combination of BTC shorts, ETH longs, and HYPE shorts, but the unrealized P&L has already been split in half by the market movement. - BTC short position at 40x full leverage, holding 243.96 contracts, nominal value about 19.94 million U, entry price 84070, unrealized profit about 568,700 U, funding fees earned 64,100 U, liquidation price near 104380. - ETH long position at 25x full leverage, holding 7222 contracts, nominal value about 17.43 million U, entry price 2541, unrealized loss about 922,700 U, liquidation price 1623.5. - HYPE short position at 5x full leverage, holding 268,300 contracts, nominal value about 21.68 million U, entry price 66.24, unrealized loss about 3.9094 million U, but funding fees earned about 1.042 million U, liquidation price 99.76. This set of positions actually tells one thing. Money is currently more willing to reward those bearish on BTC, yet still punishes those bearish on HYPE. The former aligns with macro hedging and risk appetite contraction, while the latter clashes with narrative and buying momentum. ETH is caught in the middle, neither following BTC’s weakness nor benefiting from HYPE’s emotional premium, so its long position has become a drag. What concerns me more is the sentiment aspect. HYPE’s unrealized loss has already approached 3.9 million U, which an average person would have cut long ago, but the big brother#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high ⚠️ Risks to watch
1. Gross margin slightly declined quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to high costs during the ramp-up phase of the 2nm new process, which drags down gross margin in the short term
2. Highly dependent on major AI clients; if AI capital expenditures cool down in the future, orders will face pressure
3. Overseas factory construction (USA, Japan) is costly and has a long build cycle, which will continue to increase capital expenditure pressure
✅ Summary in one sentence
AI computing power demand continues to explode, driving TSMC's advanced process orders to be full and pushing profits to a record high for six consecutive quarters; 2nm mass production is smooth, maintaining technological barriers, but high capital expenditure and AI demand fluctuations are the two major variables going forward.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, hitting a record high in earnings. TSMC's Q3 revenue also reached a new high; what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report?
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
According to the latest data, TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm capacity being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it will be interesting to see if management raises the full-year revenue growth forecast and increases capital expenditure.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is still unresolved, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout for post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered. Looking ahead:
▶️ Beware of short-term profit-taking
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Deep long-term moat
Major players' self-developed chips still rely on TSMC's technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend.
Do you think it will take Elon Musk's offer in Texas, or stick to steady progress?Once the CPI was released, many people's first reaction was: prices are heating up again, gold should shine on stage, right?✨
Reality slapped back: gold prices plunged, instantly evaporating 1.65%, breaking 4096 and even touching 4088.😵
BTC, however, acted like nothing happened, strolling in the 81000–83000 range.🚶♂️
The logic isn't complicated: stubborn inflation → Fed dares not ease → high interest rates persist → US Treasury yields surge → gold holding costs rise → funds retreat.📉
The gold script has long changed: it used to be "inflation comes, I rise," now it's "Fed hawkish, I kneel."🦅
At the end of the day, gold, BTC, and US stocks seem to be doing their own thing, but they're all betting on the same question: will liquidity ease or not.💧
Don't fight the candlesticks, first watch the central bank's mood. The market hasn't gone crazy, it just changed directors.🎬#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a new high again, but the quarter-on-quarter decline in gross margin is the biggest highlight of this earnings report. AI demand is confirmed to be strong, but large-scale capacity expansion brings depreciation pressure, which is starting to erode gross margin. The market has long priced in the high Q3 revenue, fully betting on Q4 revenue guidance and capital expenditure plans.
Capital expenditure is raised, which is a long-term positive for capacity and consolidates the monopoly position in advanced process technology; the short-term cost is pressure on profit margins. Musk's Terafab talks about foundry cooperation are a long-term theme with no short-term earnings contribution. The upcoming earnings call will focus on three key points: Q4 revenue guidance, the extent of capital expenditure increase, and management's stance on the future gross margin baseline. Aramco headquarters attacked, the news is tense, but don't jump to writing the office building damage as a cut in crude oil production.
On October 14, the Associated Press cited regional officials saying that Aramco's headquarters in Dammam was struck, with damage to the floor where senior offices are located, and no casualties reported. This news shows that the core company's office facilities are also threatened, but it itself has not told us how much oilfield production or export shipments have decreased.
I think what should be separated at this time is the losses that have already occurred and the market's concern about the risk of the next attack. The former needs to be verified through production, refinery, and port operation information; the latter may cause buyers to worry more about delivery even before production stops. Both affect prices, but they cannot be replaced by the same narrative.
If it is later confirmed that production is normal, the supply gap should not be exaggerated based on imagination. But what about next time? Continuous attacks will keep people asking whether key facilities can still operate safely. The risk remains, but specific losses need separate verification.
I hope casualties and damage can stop as soon as possible, and I do not want to treat every attack as material to stimulate the market. Going forward, I will pay more attention to Aramco's operational statements and whether actual exports have changed. When making energy judgments, admitting "currently unknown how much production has been cut" is more responsible than filling in evidence casually for a sharp viewpoint. The headquarters being attacked is serious enough; there is no need to add unconfirmed supply losses.
#AramcoHeadquartersAttacked, crude oil supply under focus #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high Q3 net profit indeed exploded, but the stock price instead dropped more than 2%, a typical case of "good news priced in as bad news." The market is not selling off the present, but the Q4 gross margin guidance (65%-67%) is lower than Q2. AI demand is certain, but the ramp-up of 2nm and overseas factory construction costs are starting to show, coupled with potential further increases in capital expenditure, investors worry that profit margins have peaked.
In the short term, it's valuation digestion; in the long term, the AI structural logic remains intact. I choose to wait for a pullback to stabilize before considering, not chasing highs.
What does everyone think? Is the gross margin decline a short-term disturbance or a long-term trend? #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high ⚠️ Risks to watch
1. Gross margin slightly declined quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to high costs during the ramp-up phase of the 2nm new process, which drags down gross margin in the short term
2. Highly dependent on major AI clients; if AI capital expenditures cool down in the future, orders will face pressure
3. Overseas factory construction (USA, Japan) is costly and has a long build cycle, which will continue to increase capital expenditure pressure
✅ Summary in one sentence
AI computing power demand continues to explode, driving TSMC's advanced process orders to be full and pushing profits to a record high for six consecutive quarters; 2nm mass production is smooth, maintaining technological barriers, but high capital expenditure and AI demand fluctuations are the two major variables going forward.$BLUR is seeing large-scale sell-offs on-chain; I'm confident in this short position.
Brothers, most people are bullish, so let's go against the grain and be bearish! On-chain data has already revealed the bottom cards.
According to Arkham monitoring, this morning an anonymous address transferred a massive 98.57 million BLUR (about $4 million) directly to Coinbase Prime. This is a clear large fund sell-off. Market maker Wintermute hasn't been idle either, having transferred about $2.6 million worth of BLUR to OKX, Binance, and Coinbase. When market makers move coins to exchanges, it's never to support the price; it's to sell.
The harshest move comes from the Korean exchange Upbit, which has added BLUR to its trading warning list and suspended deposit and withdrawal services. Experienced players know this process well; the next likely step is delisting. Once delisted, liquidity will instantly dry up, and escaping will be impossible.
On-chain data is more honest than candlestick charts. I opened a short at 0.0127 and will hold it, with a stop loss above 0.0132. The downside target is first 0.012, and if broken, then 0.011. The rest is up to time.
$BTC $ETH #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test TSMC just delivered another record quarter. The margin story is more nuanced.
TSMC reported Q3 revenue of NT$1.494T, up 50.9% YoY, and net profit of NT$763.06B, up 68.7%. Net profit set a quarterly record and beat the NT$746.34B LSEG SmartEstimate cited by CNBC.
The technology mix shows where demand is moving:
· 2nm reached 8% of wafer revenue, up from 3% in Q2
· 3nm contributed 33%, followed by 5nm at 28% and 7nm at 10%
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high TSMC's Q3 financial report looks impressive, with profits reaching a quarterly high, but the gross margin is not as good as last quarter. The positive news was already priced in by the market, so once the report came out, funds quickly exited and the stock price closed down. Therefore, I think the follow-up depends on whether AI chip orders can be maintained.Let's talk about today's "Prediction King" incident. I'm not familiar with the person involved, so I'll discuss the matter without mentioning anyone.
It's actually quite simple: some things "don't weigh four taels off the scale, but once on the scale, even a thousand catties can't suppress them." Prediction markets are a legal gray area in many countries, not just domestically. Moreover, most countries treat prediction markets as a variant of gambling or betting, generally requiring the appropriate licenses.
Sometimes playing privately won't attract attention, but if you run a community and recruit people to play, problems arise. People say prediction markets have strategies, but 99% of people can't guarantee consistent profits. When everyone profits, it's harmonious; but when people lose? After losing repeatedly and getting frustrated, they might really "blame" the person who brought them in.
Article 303 of the Criminal Law concerns gambling:
Criminal Law Article 303, Paragraph 1: Gambling Crime
Organizing gambling with multiple people or gambling as a profession for profit.
Criminal Law Article 303, Paragraph 2: Operating a Casino Crime
Operating a casino, controlling gambling platforms, acting as an agent to accept bets, or participating in related profit sharing.
Criminal Law Article 303, Paragraph 3: Organizing Participation in Overseas Gambling Crime
Recruiting Chinese citizens to gamble at overseas casinos, reaching legally defined serious circumstances.
So playing by yourself is fine, but recruiting others to play requires careful consideration. Because my profile also mentions prediction markets, and many project parties have approached me for commission sharing, I never participate. Some money isn't worth making; safety comes first.1. AI computing power remains the main engine
High-performance computing platform revenue accounts for 68%, a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase, making it the core growth driver. AI demand has extended from GPUs/accelerators to AI agent CPUs and network chips, with customers still competing for capacity.
2. The proportion of advanced process nodes continues to rise
7nm and below advanced process nodes account for 79% in total. Among them, 3nm accounts for 33%, 5nm for 28%, and 2nm for 8%. The 2nm share increased from 3% last quarter to 8%, indicating that customers are accelerating migration to more advanced nodes.
3. Order visibility extends to 2027
TSMC expects Q4 revenue of $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion, with a midpoint of about $53.3 billion, significantly higher than the market expectation of $50.35 billion; the full-year USD revenue growth guidance was raised from "slightly above 40%" to about 44%.
Pressure points to note
Gross margin slightly declined quarter-on-quarter, dropping from 67.7% to 66.4%, mainly due to profit dilution from early 2nm mass production and cost pressures from overseas capacity expansion.
Capital expenditure remains extremely high. Capital expenditure in 2026 is maintained at $60 billion to $64 billion, a record high; the market expects it may further increase to $75 billion to $90 billion in 2027. The intensity of capacity expansion is unprecedented and will suppress profit margins in the short term.
#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, due to