Orbit Post Sitemap
73.7% betting on a rate hike, short position on ETH at 2511 finally got the chance
After the core CPI exploded to 0.3% at 8:30, the market's reaction was more honest than the data itself—no one is talking about rate cuts now, everyone is rushing to bet on rate hikes.
Latest CME FedWatch data: The probability of at least two rate hikes before the end of January 2027 has surged to 73.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 1.2%; the probability of a 25 basis point hike in October jumped from 21.6% before the data to 43.7%, doubling, and some are even pricing in three more hikes by the end of 2027.
This explains why BTC plunged right after touching 84000. Before the data, many were shouting "bad news is priced in, rate cuts are coming," with longs fully loaded; but with core at 0.3% and overall at 3.7%, both exceeding expectations, the logic reversed overnight—from "when will rate cuts happen" to "how many hikes will there be," turning the previously positioned bulls into fuel for a stampede.
The market doesn't lie:
$BTC
Failed to hold 84000, already dropped below 82000, after breaking 82200, next targets are 80900 and 80000
$ETH
ETH is even more straightforward, broke 2500 directly, now around 2420
Sharing a position: My ETH short entry was at 2511, now at 2420, 91 points profit secured
Not bragging, just saying the trend direction is always written in the data, not shouted out
During a rate hike cycle, rebounds are not buying opportunities, they are giving shorts some points. Don't rush to catch the first spike $UNI 其实我内心还是非常想继续抄底做多的，但对于$UNI 接下来的走势我本能的反应还是担忧！前几天8块多的时候抄了点底，评论区也有兄弟跟我差不多的成本，好在他们都严格设置了止损，损失应该不大，我想说的是，$UNI 的止跌点可能还得看6美元！从10.95跌到现在7.2，跌幅34%，虽说是能接受的程度，但现在收出的阴线实体明显比阳线实体大的多，说明卖单还是更多，而且短期均线一直在压制价格，多军会很难受！从基本面看，UNI当然是优质资产，无论是收入还是回购注销模型，都能令市场满意，而且在其他去中心化交易所收入都下滑严重的情况下，UNI依旧坚挺，这点还是能够体现出它的特别之处！一句话总结UNI就是，短期很难止跌，长期值得投资！$BTC $ETH 在CPI前流出7.73亿美金！这踏马什么情况？机构不跟你玩了？
我查了一下，这是最近两周最大的单日流出。CPI还没出，机构先跑为敬。
1. 美国不做大规模打击伊朗：伊朗代理人持续在红海、霍尔木兹搞袭船、水雷、骚扰。航运风险溢价一直存在，油价被托在高位，通胀下不去。
2. 美国如果升级打击伊朗：伊朗有能力报复，攻击沙特油田、港口、封锁海峡，油价直接暴涨，通胀直接炸。
伊朗不需要大规模正规作战，依靠低成本的无人机、导弹、水雷就能持续制造威胁。不需要摧毁全部油轮，只要提高保险成本、迫使船只绕行，就可以持续抬升原油贸易成本，长期支撑油价。
美国的核心约束是国内通胀和选民感受。油价一旦飙升，CPI反弹，美联储只能继续维持高利率，美股、风险资产承压，经济衰退风险上升，直接影响大选。
伊朗也清楚手里的能源筹码，不会轻易放弃这张牌。只要美国不满足它的诉求，代理人摩擦就会长期存在。
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 BTC现价65000一线，盘面并未给出有效的止跌信号。均线压制排列，MACD弱势死叉未收敛，空头控盘格局没有改变。上方清算地图显示84500附近存在高杠杆空单清算压力，但当前基准价距该区域过远，短线反抽完成猎杀的概率极低，反而重心继续下移去清理下方多单止损更为现实。
刚把餐品递给客户，催债电话就震起来了，根本来不及多看一眼手机。65000不是可以抄底的位置，追空需要等反抽而不是直接砸。短线若反抽65200至65800区间且无法站回66000，可介入空单，防守止损放在66200上方，下方第一止盈看63800，第二止盈看62500一线。
若放量跌穿64500，空头会进一步加速，目标可顺势下移至61800。盈亏比勉强够，别扛单。
$BTC
#阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点
@OKX星球 I've been watching CORE for a long time, always thinking it could bounce back. Maybe I was just naive. Here are my heartfelt thoughts on the coer public chain.
1. Today's Market
I used to only have a concept of "fall 13%, need to rise 15% to break even," but now it's the first thing I check every morning when I wake up. The asymmetric path between loss and break-even only becomes clear after holding a position.
2. The Entry Point I Chose Happened to Be a Moving Average Judged as "Seller-Controlled"
In the technical review by Traders Union on October 9, they marked positions for CORE: hourly MA-20 at 0.0215, MA-50 at 0.0217, daily MA-200 at 0.0289; recent resistance at 0.0208, support at 0.0194, RSI that day was 23.79, oversold. The conclusion was straightforward—trend clearly bearish, unless it holds above 0.0208, any upward movement is just noise.
My entry price at 0.0215 almost exactly landed on that hourly MA-20. In other words, I bought on a "moving average pullback," but the market gave me a "break below the moving average." Same number, two interpretations. This realization came late, but it wouldn't have come before today.
3. How to Reinterpret the Reasons That Initially Convinced Me to Go Long
I was drawn in by the BTCFi narrative. Core's selling point is the Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus: combining Bitcoin's PoW hash power, CORE's DPoS staking, and non-custodial Bitcoin staking. Officially, over about 70% of Bitcoin mining power has contributed to this chain's security model. The chain once held over 5,400 BTC and more than 160 million CORE staked, with TVL once exceeding $850 million. From an engineering narrative alone, this is not just air.
But today's market numbers tell a different story: circulating market cap about $27.66 million, 24-hour volume about $3.38 million (btc126, October 14 data; chain community data shows market cap about $19.27 million, volume about $1.67 million, differences mainly due to circulating supply calculated as 1.01 billion vs. 1.48 billion); down 99.7% from the all-time high of $6.14 on February 8, 2023; only rebounded 11.8% from the all-time low of $0.0167 on July 28, 2026; down 92.83% in the past year (chain community data as of October 14), and down between 7.48% and 14.40% in the past seven days (sources and timestamps vary).
The technical narrative is true, and the price is true; both can coexist for a long time. This is the first lesson this position has taught me.
4. What Really Woke Me Up Were Two Events This Year
The first was in early September. Core DAO validators received more CORE than protocol design intended due to a reward accounting bug. The official response was an emergency hard fork, clearly a "forward upgrade" without rolling back historical transactions, and a promise to release a technical review. The exact amount overissued, duration, and whether these coins entered circulation remain undisclosed. During those days, Coinbase suspended Core network deposits and withdrawals; Bithumb, Coinone, Bitget, and LBank also suspended deposits and withdrawals.
At that moment, I understood what liquidity really means. It's not the volume number on market software; it's whether someone is on the other side when you hit "withdraw."
The second was on May 22. Core Foundation and Maple Finance reached a comprehensive settlement over the exclusive syrupBTC agreement dispute, which had lasted eight months since November 2025, including Cayman arbitration and litigation. On the day the news broke, CORE surged nearly 26%. I later copied a judgment from AInvest's commentary into my notes: this was "a relief rally on a deeply discounted asset, not a trend ignition."
A knife hanging for eight months finally dropped; the market only allowed itself to catch a breath. After the breath, fundamentals still have to be faced. Looking back at that rebound today, I see not an opportunity but the homework I need to do next.
5. There's One More Number I Refuse to Look At
CORE's max supply is 2.1 billion, current circulation about 1.24 billion. CoinCodex and the official knowledge base recorded an actual annual inflation rate of 35.73% in September 2026, while the protocol's designed annual inflation target is 3% to 5%. Block rewards are distributed over 81 years, and 75% of the airdrop unlocks monthly over two years.
Narrative determines whether someone is willing to buy; dilution determines how many are forced to sell. This gap cannot be filled by "the team is still working."
6. Writing This, What I Feel Is
Not despair. Despair requires having believed in something. Now, I feel more like I'm doing an honest reconciliation.
This position has taught me three things I previously only read in others' posts: first, "undervaluation" does not equal "catalyst," an asset down 99% can fall another 13%; second, holding a long contract is essentially borrowing a viewpoint with a time cost; third, price is the only data that requires no one's belief, everything else is secondhand.
I no longer ask "Can CORE rise back?" but a more painful question: "Why should I know this earlier and more accurately than someone else?" If I can't answer that, the position is no longer an investment but a statement.
As for the next step, I won't give advice to others or to my past self last week. Once the 0.0194 support decides the direction, I will most likely immediately know I'm wrong—this kind of "knowing" itself is quite costly.Today, as soon as the CPI was released, the market broadly fell, but $OKB held up remarkably well!
September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and the core monthly rate of 0.3% also exceeded expectations. Once the data came out, BTC dropped from 83300 to below 82700, ETH fell below 2500, and SOL, BNB, DOGE were all in the red. Overall, 60 fell and 35 rose; OKB was quoted at $122.8, down 0.58% in 24 hours, not making the gainers list. So the claim of it being the "only one rising" is mistaken.
But OKB did show resilience, worth mentioning. It only fell less than 1% intraday, while ETH fell 0.84% and SOL 0.74% in the same period. It had a single-day drop of over 6% a few days ago, and today’s similar negative news only caused a small pullback, indicating selling pressure had been released earlier. It also has a structural advantage: a fixed total supply of 21 million, fully circulating with no unlocking pressure; its 90-day correlation with BTC is only 0.06, basically not moving with the broader market. The logic for platform tokens is not to rely on narratives but on exchange cash flow and token burn support.
My view is, don’t rush to say it’s "super stable." OKB’s small drop today is more because it had already fallen deeply before and the chips are clean, not because it’s immune to macro factors. The CPI exceeding expectations reduced the probability of no rate hike in October from 80% to 50%, and the probability of a rate hike in December is still rising. No one can truly be unaffected in this environment. It’s fair to praise its resilience, but calling it a counter-trend rally is an overstatement. 本周美国银行股的关键两份财报公布了，美国银行与摩根士丹利 依旧是延续了本周银行股良好的趋势，美国银行财报告诉我们传统信贷与存款体系仍然健康，大摩财报则告诉我们资本市场和高净值资金仍然非常活跃 美国银行财报，核心银行业务强，贷款增长好，贷款增长反而信用质量没有恶化，不过资本市场业务较弱 大摩财报，比美国银行更加漂亮，股票交易数据炸裂，同比增长41%，固定收益、外汇与大宗商品交易业务反而不好，但是财富管理规模亮眼 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 结合两家财报可以对本周提出的问题得出结论，延续昨日其他银行财报来看，贷款增长，净利息收入 、拨备 、投资银行 、信用质量继续处于增长扩张期，对于AI产业链来说资本供给环境良好 不过这份财报对于Fed来说不算是好数据，就像沃什此前说的那样，金融市场还未收紧，美联储还有收缩空间 另外一点还需要注意，美国银行与大摩的财报共同问题就是FICC 低于预期，意味着债券市场交易可能比股票市场交易难度更大，这意味着目前真正承受金融市场压力的地方是债市而不是股市 结合目前的形式来看，本周银行股财报基本落地确定良好+阿斯麦财报强势，仅剩一个台积电预期也不错，今晚的 CPI 其实不是重点。真正的戏肉，是美联储的信誉正在被市场当笑话看。
哈玛克那边放鹰，嘴上喊还要加；市场转头就把10月"按兵不动"的概率干到了77%。一边喊加息，一边定价不加息，两边压根不在一个频道上。大饼 $BTC 美国机构在减仓，巨鲸三周增持超八万枚。
机构在撤，长期持有者在接。CPI偏热，大饼会先被砸一波；但利空出尽之后，巨鲸可能加速吸筹。以太 $ETH 现货ETF上周净流出超 5 亿，贝莱德一家就跑了近5亿。
但有个细节值得盯：它的杠杆率降到了七个月最低，资金费率转负，空头在付费持仓。如果价格稳住、不破关键支撑，空头回补反而能成为反弹的燃料。前提是 ETF 那边的资金得先停下来，目前还没看到。
黄金 $XAUT 现在撤的是期货市场上的投机多头。瑞银说这波下跌，本质就是非商业账户在削减净多头。可黄金 ETF 持仓异常抗跌，资金持续流入；央行连续二十三个月增持，九月增持量还是本轮最大。
投机盘在跑，配置盘在接。大饼的接盘方是链上巨鲸，黄金的接盘方是央行。现在赌的是美联储这场信誉危机，到底还能撑多久。#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 今晚20:30，CPI登场⏰
我的思路不变：$ETH 在2500附近偏多，核心博弈是核心通胀不会超预期爆表🔥
盘面看，ETH围绕2500反复拉锯，日内从2400走出深V，下方承接扎实💪。这不是虚画支撑，而是筹码真金白银换出来的。BTC在8.3万附近同样有资金托底，短线情绪未崩。
压制项也明显：ETF连续9天净流出，累计约6.97亿美元，确实压着行情🧊。但机构调仓更像短期情绪扰动，花旗10月1日上调ETH目标价至3028，逻辑是宏观回暖+资金回流，中期叙事仍有支撑📈。叠加台积电Q3营收创新高，科技端盈利预期给风险资产打了底。
多空都在等通胀数据，核心环比0.2%是分水岭，高于0.3%点火加息预期，低于则利空出尽。CPI一落地，市场重新定价，宏观数据才是主线。我目前3x空单持仓中，但2500不破仍偏多看待。别急，系好安全带🚀$BTC $ETH $ZEC ZEC at $1150, are you panicking?
From 1650 down to 1150, 30% gone, everyone is cursing "privacy coins are dead"—but just now, Grayscale's ZEC ETF quietly surpassed $1 billion in assets, the NU7 upgrade testnet has been activated, and the mainnet countdown is on. So is this a profit-taking wave or institutions quietly accumulating?
First, look at the surface: the drop is indeed severe.
At the end of September, it surged to 1650-1680, now at 1150, a 30% pullback. ETF funds have been flowing out continuously, longs liquidated, capital rotating. You open your account, everything looks green and scary. But look at the chart—1112 hasn't been broken, 1123 held, 1150 is being contested repeatedly. The candlesticks tell you: this is a pullback consolidation after an impulsive rally, not an established bearish trend. RSI is neutral to weak but not oversold, volume is declining and expanding, rebounds are moderate, typical profit-taking, not a crash.
First thing: Grayscale is flowing out, but Winklevoss is entering.
Grayscale ZCSH has indeed seen net outflows recently, tens of millions to over a hundred million dollars. Sounds scary?
But what you didn't see—Winklevoss team just submitted a ZEC spot ETF application with a fee rate of only 0.25%. Directly competing with Grayscale.
What does this mean?
Institutions are not quitting; they are switching tracks to compete for chips. One ETF outflow, another ETF inflow, the total pot isn't shrinking, just changing pockets.
More strikingly: Grayscale ZCSH's AUM previously quickly surpassed $1 billion. Institutional demand for privacy coins is real.
Second thing: NU7 upgrade, ZEC changed its core.
On October 4, the NU7 upgrade activated the public testnet. Block time shortened from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, confirmation speed tripled. Fee mechanism optimized. Mainnet target November 5, final decision node on October 20.
Don't understand? Let me translate into plain language:
Transfers are lightning fast, user experience maximized
Lower fees, small payment scenarios revived
Quantum resistance roadmap advancing, transparent pool planned for 2027
ZEC is transforming from an "old-school privacy coin" into a "usable privacy payment network." This is the same logic as ETH's Pectra upgrade—technology landing, narrative reboot.
Third thing: In the AI era, privacy has become a necessity.
Have you ever thought—
AI is getting stronger, on-chain data is becoming more transparent, every transaction of yours could be linked, analyzed, sold.
In front of AI, your wallet is more transparent than your face.
This is ZEC's underlying logic: optional shielded transactions, zk-SNARK technology, you choose transparency or privacy.
Compared to Monero's full privacy—ZEC's "optional" approach is actually more compliant and easier for institutions to accept. Regulatory-friendly plus privacy protection, this is the only solution in the privacy track.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Grayscale ZEC ETF size breaks $1 billion, institutional channel open
Winklevoss low-fee ETF application, competitive advantage
NU7 upgrade testnet activated, mainnet November 5
Technical support strong at 1120-1150, no effective breakdown
YTD gains still over 100%, outperforming most major coins
On the other side:
ETF recent net outflows, profit-taking at highs
Long liquidations and capital rotation
Macro is hawkish, BTC oscillating between 82k-84k
Privacy coin regulatory uncertainty remains
Repeated failure to hold 1200, highs gradually lowering
Key level 1150, only $30 above the death line at 1120.
Resistance above: 1200 → 1230-1250 → 1300 (pullback end confirmation) → 1350+
Support below: 1120-1150 (iron bottom) → 1100 → 1050-1000 (extreme)
Trading strategy (no nonsense):
Spot/mid-term:
Buy small batches near 1150, stop loss if 1100-1120 breaks effectively. First target 1200-1250, if stable then look at 1300. If breaks 1100 with volume, reduce position and reassess near 1000. Don't all in, privacy coins are volatile, regulatory black swans can come anytime.
Contract short-term:
Bullish: Light long positions at 1150-1160, stop loss 1110-1120, target 1200-1230. Risk-reward at least 1:2 before entering.
Bearish: Light short positions if rebound hits 1200-1230 resistance, stop loss above 1250, target 1150/1120.
Key nodes:
October 20 NU7 mainnet decision
Early November upgrade window
CPI/FOMC macro data
ETF fund flows
Risk iron rules:
Single trade risk no more than 2-3% of total funds
Leverage within 3-5x
Watch BTC closely, ZEC still correlated
Break and hold above 1300 to confirm pullback end
ZEC now is like Tesla in 2020—
Everyone thought "electric cars are toys," what happened?
It rose 20x from post-split lows.
Privacy coins are still in the "toy" stage.
But the stronger AI gets, the more valuable privacy becomes.
When everyone thinks privacy doesn't matter, every transaction of yours is exposed.
Holding 1150 is the starting point for the next wave.
Breaking 1100 is the final shakeout.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The worst feared event has happened: Core CPI moved
Overall CPI is 3.7%, roughly as expected, everyone was prepared for this, oil is expensive after all
The killer is the core CPI: last month was 2.4%, expected 2.5%, but the result came out at 2.6%, even higher than expected
Core CPI excludes oil and food inflation. When it rises, it means the high oil prices are no longer just a gas station issue. This time, the biggest increases were in airfares, used cars, medical care, and clothing.
Airfares illustrate the problem best. Planes burn oil, and after months of expensive oil, the cost can no longer be suppressed and has been passed on to ticket prices. This is what we have been worried about: oil costs starting to seep into other goods.
The market reaction was very direct.
The probability of a Fed rate hike at the end of the month was only 22% yesterday, but after the data release, it jumped directly to 44%, doubling.
The 10-year US Treasury yield surged back to 5.3%. The dollar strengthened accordingly, while gold, silver, and US stock futures all fell.
Bitcoin initially surged to 83,800 after the data release, then dropped steadily to 81,000. It still hasn't broken through 84,000.
The rate hike story is not over. Previously, most thought a hike at the end of the month was unlikely; now it's about fifty-fifty. Money will only tighten further, and the higher US Treasury yields go, the fewer people are willing to take risks.
The Fed meets on October 28. If they do hike consecutively, Bitcoin will have to look for lower levels. November still has October's CPI data; if core CPI continues to rise, this won't be a one-month issue.
In the short term, Bitcoin faces resistance at 84,000 above, and support at 80,500 below to watch.Core CPI year-on-year rose to 2.6%, hitting a nearly three-month high, showing inflation stickiness again. The previously expected easing pace in the market now faces a major test. Can BTC withstand this wave of macro shocks tonight?
Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is a key indicator the Federal Reserve watches for underlying inflation. This rise in the reading means prices are not falling as expected, cooling expectations for rate cuts, and driving upward momentum for U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
Key points to watch next: the difference between this 2.6% and market estimates, and the subsequent reaction of U.S. Treasuries after the data release. If it is significantly higher than expected, short-term selling pressure on BTC will likely increase; if the risk has already been priced in, strong spot buying support could lead to a rebound after the negative news is fully absorbed. Pay close attention to the secondary capital battles after the U.S. stock market opens at 21:30.
Core CPI hitting a three-month high means the market needs to reprice the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 The market is falling, but there are 3 coins $OP, $BAT, $PONS that are rising against the trend:
1. OP has the strongest fundamentals. It rose 64% in 30 days, while BTC only rose 9% in the same period. The upgrade allocates 50% of revenue to OP buybacks; Gwangju Bank in South Korea also partnered with Toss to run stablecoin QR payments using OP Stack.
But buybacks only start monthly in 2027, so what’s being traded now is expectation; 230 million circulating supply vs. 429 million total supply, with more unlocking ahead.
2. BAT is being bought by shorts covering. It rose 95% in a week, price is up, but funding rates have been negative all along. This is a short squeeze, not spot buying.
The narrative is stuck on the roadmap: x402, BravePay, Rewards Card are still on the waiting list. The revival of this old coin depends not on a quick pump but on whether the narrative can be fulfilled.
3. PONS is an insider’s game, my advice is to avoid it. It has dropped 71% from its ATH, and market cap has fallen below 200 million for the first time.
Buybacks and burns rely entirely on fees for funding; on-chain fees have dropped from a peak of $11.42 million to $595,000, cutting buyback power by 80%, now only 32% burn and exchange listings are propping it up.
OP has real catalysts, but you’re buying 2027 expectations; no matter how much BAT and PONS rise, they are not bottoms you can hold.$BTC hit 81700.
Current price is about 81706, dropping sharply about 0.45% from around 82078 in the last 15 minutes, with the daily low touching 81700. Inflation remains high, and interest rate hike expectations have resurfaced, coinciding with a sell-off.
Outlook: Still bearish on the 4-hour chart, with a range between 80961–84348. If it can't reclaim 82280, first support is at 81700; if that breaks, look to the previous low at 80961. Only by recovering and holding above 82280 / 83100 will the bearish structure loosen. Don't rush to bottom-fish.If tonight's CPI is the matchstick, which of the three major coins will be lit first? Are you also waiting for that directional choice? Watching the market until now, my biggest feeling is not excitement but a kind of suppressed quiet. BTC is grinding back and forth between 83K and 84K, ETH is holding firm at 2,500, and SOL is stuck around 110 looking up at 120. All three lines are very tense, like the calm before a storm. The interesting part this time is that ETF outflows have finally slowed down, while whales quietly absorbed 166K ETH during nine consecutive days of ETH bleeding. This detail is more worth watching than the price itself. Retail sentiment is still stuck in narrative fatigue, while big money is already voting with real cash. This kind of divergence usually doesn't stay quiet for long. Cross-market linkage is the real protagonist in this game. BTC is the main switch, and 84K is that toggle. Once it breaks above with volume, ETH and SOL will be passively boosted because short covering and risk appetite will be ignited simultaneously. Conversely, losing 82K will flip the whole board red, and altcoins will fall faster than anyone else because their buy orders are thin to begin with. The bullish path is actually not complicated: CPI doesn't explode, BTC breaks 84K, ETH follows to test above 2,600, and only then does SOL have the confidence to charge to 120. This chain is linked step by step; missing one link and it won't go far. But the risks are also deeply hidden. The market may have already priced in a mild CPI, so if the actual data is good, it might instead become a window for selling. If that 166K ETH whale stake is just hedging rather than bullish, once 2,500 breaks, faith will shatter quickly CPI landed, core year-on-year at 2.6%, slightly higher than market consensus. The real issue is the core, not the overall. The overall figure is supported by energy; gasoline saw a nearly double-digit monthly increase, which has already been traded. The Federal Reserve focuses on the core; once the core exceeds expectations, the December rate hike bet is pushed to about 90%.
For Bitcoin, 82,000 was originally the first support level; if it falls below but recovers, that's still acceptable. It actually didn't recover, now at 81,800, the short-term has already been lost, and this judgment of mine was wrong.
Crude oil at 95, Brent at 106, and US Treasury yields continue to rise after the data. Combined, this means higher funding costs and continued pressure on risk assets.
Market sentiment flips quickly; last night it was trading rate cuts, tonight the screen is full of rate hikes.
Below, first watch the 80,000 integer level. Integer levels are often used to sweep liquidity; a real drop might not be bad and could offer a counter-trend opportunity. If 80,000 is also lost, then treat it as a lower range. Don't chase short positions at this level; it's easy to get stopped out by a rebound.
$ETH $SOL $BTC
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 哥们儿，看到一个对比数据挺有意思的。
Solana现在每天处理140多亿笔交易，DeFi锁仓量回到67亿美元，稳定币市值过了150亿。但另一边，上半年链上手续费收入同比掉了87%。
是不是听着很矛盾？我一开始也懵。
后来想明白了——手续费收入掉，是因为以前靠meme币炒作贡献费用，那玩意儿凉了，费用自然掉。但稳定币、代币化股票这些“真东西”在涨，它们带来的价值很多不在手续费上体现。
打个比方：你家门口以前靠摆地摊收摊位费赚钱，后来地摊少了，摊位费降了。但旁边开了个商场，虽然不交摊位费，但每天人流比地摊时代还大，而且人家是来正经买东西的。
地摊是热闹，商场是长久的。
Alpenglow升级10月21号上主网，最终确认压到150毫秒。这玩意儿上了之后，能承载的东西跟现在完全不是一个量级。
$SOL 现在是在换血。旧的在退，新的在长。别被手续费那个数字吓到，看底层在长什么。Lost $12 million in 7 days, account left with only $150,000, Maji is back to square one
A month and a half ago, his account was $150,000.
Then: 150,000 → 12,000,000 → 800,000 → 10,000,000 → 1,000,000 → 560,000 → 150,000.
Went full circle, back to the starting point.
And in this month and a half, he paid $1.36 million just in funding fees.
But now it’s even more dangerous than "back to square one"
· 2,250 $ETH, 25X full position
· Entry price $2,515.81
· Liquidation price $2,401.35
· Floating loss -$218,100
ETH current price $2,421, only 0.8% away from liquidation price.
Last time: 7,075 ETH, worth $17.77 million.
Now: 2,250 ETH, worth $5.44 million.
Position cut by 68%, liquidation price moved down from $2,471.96 to $2,401.35.
What does this mean: he actively pushed the liquidation line away; but it also means another thing, he might be out of money.
Maji is back to square one, do you think he can bounce back this time? CPI超预期，BTC死守8万关口：ETH和SOL还能扛多久？
国际局势与能源价格的不确定性叠加通胀反弹，市场对美联储宽松的预期面临考验。现在最危险的，不是下跌本身，而是资金可能继续降低风险敞口。
按我今晚的行情截图：
• $BTC ：81,803美元，重点看80,000关口，重新站回83,000，短线才有转强迹象。
• $ETH ：2,420美元，关注2,350—2,400区间能否守住，收复2,500才算初步修复。
• $SOL ：103.64美元，关注100—102区间，重新站回107才能缓解弱势。
我的观点：短线谨慎看空，不急着抄底。
BTC相对抗跌，不代表市场安全；ETH和SOL跌幅更大，也不意味着它们必然继续跌。如果美元与美债收益率继续走强，我会优先防范支撑失守；如果三币守住关键区间并同步反弹，再考虑趋势是否改善。
我不猜最低点，只看市场能不能拿回失地。
如果BTC守住8万美元，ETH和SOL却继续走弱，你会选择抄底，还是继续观望？
注：价格取自截图时点，支撑与压力为个人观察区间，不构成投资建议。Last week, they were stuck with 280 million, and this week they spent another 235 million to buy
No mistake, it's still Strive. From October 5-9 last week, they spent 280 million USD to buy 3,311 BTC at an average price of 84,500, only to be stuck immediately. This week, on October 12-13, they spent another 235 million USD to buy 2,822 BTC at an average price of about 83,266. Now the total holding is 35,595 BTC, ranking fourth among listed companies.
The two purchases combined amount to 510 million USD for 6,133 BTC. BTC is currently around 81,800 USD, both buys were underwater. According to CEO Matt Cole, the goal is to become the second largest BTC holder among global listed companies by the end of the year.
Institutions buy more as prices fall, while retail investors panic more—the butt decides the brain, and position size determines mentality. What about you, would you dare to buy more as prices drop in such a market?
Risk warning: Macro volatility is intense, participate cautiously. For reference only, not investment advice.
#BTCZEC放量收跌，下一小时又跌穿了前一小时低点。
截至北京时间22:49，欧易现货约1153.77美元。24小时最高1285.78美元、最低1145.98美元，振幅约12.2%。21点完整小时成交约863万美元，是此前28个完整小时均值约285万美元的3倍。22点还没收盘，成交已约815万美元。
我的判断是卖压仍在。21点收盘价1206.6美元，22点最低摸到1145.98美元。成交放大说明换手激烈，不能据此认定下方已经有人接住。
此时看到放量就急着猜底，容易把换手当承接。我更关注后续能否重新站稳1205.05美元，也就是21点的低点。若继续跌破1145.98美元，当前判断会加强；若站回1205.05美元并守住，卖压延续的判断就该调整。
$ZEC $BTC hedge short position has taken profit
As mentioned before, the main force might choose to use sideways movement instead of a drop, with wide-range oscillation to achieve chip recovery. So take profit on the short position at a low level, then see if you can make another hedge short position above the range. However, I think going long at a low level might be safer. But for BTC, I might not consider hedging anymore, because if the main force is accumulating strength, it would be disastrous. I see on large orders, the main force is clearly deliberately suppressing the price, capping large orders. Once the orders are withdrawn, it will surge.
As mentioned before, altcoins really dropped, so let's take advantage and lower the holding cost. So continue holding the $UNI short position. If it bounces very high, I will add to hedge or reduce spot holdings.
Build positions on dips in October, at least 90% of the position remains. Two weeks left, come on BTC, come on everyone! James Wayne: Completely Silent!
The king of high-leverage volatility accounts that went to zero and emptied positions, James Wayne, who once swept through Hyperliquid with high leverage, heavy positions, and quick in-and-out trades, now has a fully zeroed on-chain account with no holdings, no positions, and an account value of 0.
Current Status
Public Positions: None (fully exited)
Account Value: 0 U
Last On-Chain Activity: Stuck on March 30, only a small BTC short test order was seen, no major moves since then
Market Signal
This gambler-type trader, who has repeatedly created single trades with tens of millions in profit or loss, is now completely empty and watching.
Two interpretations: One is that he believes there is currently a lack of highly certain one-sided market trends and prefers to stay empty rather than force trades; the other is that he may have started anew with an anonymous small account, as he historically has a habit of changing accounts. For retail investors, even the most gambling-prone Whale stepping back often signals the market entering a phase of disorderly oscillation with very low win rates, sharply increasing the risks of blindly chasing highs and selling lows. $BTC $ETH
#US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations 70 minutes after the draw, the bulls were wiped out 💥
20:30, the draw. Core 2.6% exceeded expectations, leaning hawkish.
20:31, I was watching the market. BTC started a slow decline from 82797, ETH 2500 was on the brink. I thought: the bulls trying to bottom-fish are going to have a bad night.
21:58, the first strike came. In a single minute, long positions liquidated 9.4 million, 155 orders. I counted three times, no mistake.
22:05, the second strike. 1.76 million BTC longs and 1.25 million ETH longs were liquidated simultaneously. Prices settled at 82125 and 2438.
22:15 review: 62.43 million liquidated network-wide in 1 hour, 90% were longs dying; 240 million in 24 hours, 74,596 people liquidated.
Before the draw, longs and shorts fought each other; after the draw, a one-sided slaughter of longs. The lurking bulls bet on "all bad news priced in," but the bad news wasn’t fully out, causing stop-loss and liquidation cascades.
Fee rate split: BTC still positive, bulls not giving up; ETH turned negative, shorts took over. ETH down 2.99% today, ETF outflows for 10 consecutive days dragging it down.
BERA +7.3% to 0.2365, but fee rate -0.0109%, shorts adding positions; A +4.59% to 0.1045. The rise of these altcoins is borrowed strength.
My judgment: the long liquidation is not over yet. BTC 82000 is the critical point, break it and look at 81000. ETH 2400 break leads to 2300 next. No bottom-fishing tonight, let the bullets fly a little longer. 谁在往中本聪钱包里打钱？
刚看了一眼中本聪的地址，目前持仓：
109.6万枚 $BTC ，按现价 $83,753 算，价值 918 亿美元，占全网的 5.22%。
他的创世地址：这15年，交易笔数 66,911 笔，累计收到 57.65 枚 BTC。平均每笔，约 72 美元。
最大的一笔是 2024 年初的 26.9 枚——一次就占了累计收到的四成多。
CB的产品主管 Conor Grogan 当时说："要么是中本聪醒了，买了 27 个比特币存进钱包，要么就是有人烧掉了 100 万美元。"
为什么现在每天还有人给中本聪打钱？
致敬、做链上标记、或者纯粹想成为"给中本聪打过钱的人"。
6.7万笔转账，你觉得这到底是致敬，还是集体自我感动？$BTC $BTC $ETH $SOL Liquidation Heatmap + Market Resonance, Market Sentiment Analysis
The total liquidation amount in 24 hours is 295 million, with 81.7% being long liquidations, representing a typical macro-driven concentrated long liquidation.
The heatmap clearly shows: BTC and ETH have the highest liquidation amounts, with ETH long liquidations accounting for 86.9%, even higher than BTC's 79.4%. ETH leveraged longs are the hardest hit, perfectly matching the market trend—ETH's decline is deeper, and high-leverage longs are being liquidated en masse.
Combining BTC and ETH 30-minute candlesticks, there is a large-volume bearish candle, and together with this liquidation data, it shows that this round of decline is not caused by shorts actively dumping but by CPI inflation exceeding expectations + the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, tightening macro expectations, triggering a collective stop-loss stampede among leveraged longs.
A large number of bottom-fishing longs and high-position ambush longs are forcibly liquidated, directly extinguishing market enthusiasm for bottom-fishing. Current market sentiment:
1. Leveraged longs' confidence is severely shaken; no one dares to leverage to bottom-fish casually, and short-term leveraged funds choose to exit and observe;
2. BTC is relatively resistant to the drop, ETH is more elastic, and high-leverage positions are concentrated in ETH, making ETH the hardest hit in this liquidation round;
3. Short liquidations account for a very low proportion, indicating shorts have not massively taken profits, and shorts still hold the short-term advantage.
Current market mindset: After a wave of long liquidations, short-term floating profit longs are basically cleared, but extreme panic has not yet arrived. Bottom-fishing funds will become extremely cautious, reluctant to chase rebounds, and most choose to watch from the sidelines Personally, I think the problem isn't how high the numbers are, but that inflation just won't come down. Just after a rate hike, more action might be needed. US Treasury yields are already rising, so risk assets definitely feel uncomfortable. But don't assume a crash just because of bad news; the key is how the funds respond.
$BTC first needs to hold 80,000. If Bitcoin can't reclaim the 83,000 to 84,000 range above, the rebound won't go smoothly; if support is lost, watch out for a pullback.$SNDK 年内涨了五倍多，市盈率却只有十九倍。
这个组合少见。年内涨五倍的股票，估值通常被推到几十倍甚至上百倍。十九倍基本是传统制造业的水平，说明市场没按成长股给它定价。
原因在利润的可持续性。现在这份盈利，市场判断是 NAND 涨价的阶段性产物——涨价周期一过，供给跟上，利润就要回落。用周期股的办法估值，就是拿顶部利润配一个低倍数，价格自然被按住。
机构不这么算。二十多家分析师的平均目标价折合还有四成以上空间，二十一家建议买入，一家建议卖出。
两边赌的是同一件事：这轮存储短缺能不能跨过二〇二七年。这个问题的答案决定该用成长股的倍数还是周期股的倍数，差的就是那一倍以上的估值。
价格上，五个交易日跌了近一成五，从六月高点算回撤接近四成，短期跌势够急。十月二十九日的财报是第一个可以验证的节点。 One CPI report, and BTC immediately takes a hit. Could worse still be ahead?
If Trump takes military action against Iran after the midterm elections, and the Houthis and Saudi Arabia continue their conflict, won't oil prices skyrocket?
Historically, in midterm election years, BTC rarely escapes a major drop. Could this time be an exception? Whales are accumulating, ETFs and BlackRock occasionally buying, but the macro environment is genuinely unfavorable for BTC.
The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields are approaching 5.5%, and non-yielding assets are being repriced. The US stock market index is propped up by giants like Microsoft, Apple, and META; beneath this overvaluation, many individual stocks have already collapsed.
A rate hike in December is almost certain. If the US stock market also stalls and suffers a collective sharp decline, the risk will transmit to BTC, which will struggle to remain unscathed—when the whole nest is disturbed, how can any egg remain intact?
Therefore, I am somewhat pessimistic before the rate hike. After the midterm elections and the rate hike are settled, with the macro outlook clearer and negative factors exhausted, BTC may truly improve.
Before the December rate hike, the Bitcoin bull market is very likely to return. Do you think this is a good thing or a bad thing?
(This is only a refined copy and does not constitute investment advice.)#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 In the past 24 hours, 79,190 people were liquidated, with a total of $281 million liquidated.
On average, 55 people per minute.
1 hour: Long positions $75.37 million, short positions $6.19 million — long positions account for 92%.
24 hours: Long positions liquidated $228 million, short positions liquidated $52.7 million — long positions account for 81.2% of long positions.
The worst hit was $ETH, liquidated $7.0268 million, trigger price $2,433.32
The main reason is the impressive September CPI year-on-year at 3.7% (expected 3.6%) → exceeding expectations → increased probability of rate hikes
The same data caused both gold and Bitcoin to fall.
#US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations 上条帖子我说等第一波插针爆完再动手，现在看盘面，插针可能还在半山腰
CPI 3.7%把降息梦砸碎了，利率市场甚至在交易年内还有一次加息，对加密这种依赖流动性的资产来说，高利率维持更久，就是头上悬着刀
数据里最吓人的不是CPI本身，是持仓量和多空比，数据前大饼二饼持仓就在降，大资金提前跑了，但多空比没崩，反而更极端：SOL 2.68，ETH 1.76，BTC 1.42，多头全挤在一条船上，资金费率还转负了，这要是继续往下砸，SOL这种扎堆的，一爆就是连环爆
ETF那边也没资金支持，资金持续净流出，机构没接盘
我现在绝不抄底，不做左侧接刀。关键位置盯好：大饼82000守不住看78000-80000，二饼看2350，SOL跌起来会比大饼二饼更惨
等第一波踩踏爆完，爆仓数据出来，盘面缩量企稳了，再考虑轻仓试错，今晚别重仓别扛单，活着比什么都重要
你们是被爆了还是空仓看戏？评论区报个到，说说你盯的关键点位
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ US CPI data all exceeded market expectations. This will significantly increase the probability of a Fed rate hike in October, and higher rate expectations will push up US Treasury yields. The US dollar will also strengthen, which is negative for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold.
Market funds have an opportunity cost; since US Treasury yields are rising further, buying US Treasuries becomes more attractive, and funds flowing into Bitcoin will decrease. Many people imagine Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, but my experience tells me Bitcoin is more like a risk asset and will be pressured along with US stocks and gold.
Bitcoin is particularly sensitive to tightening liquidity and rising real interest rates. Currently, Bitcoin has slightly dropped by over $1,000, which can be seen as a small negative reaction to the CPI data. Going forward, we will watch the Fed officials and the results of the FOMC meeting. Actually, Bitcoin has risen too much in the past two months; the macro headwinds mainly act as a catalyst for the decline, but the core reason is that after such a big rise, a fall is inevitable.This CPI is worse than expected
Originally, inflation was expected to be lower than anticipated, but the September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, and the core CPI also rebounded to 2.6%, both exceeding market expectations.
What’s more troublesome is that besides the rise in energy prices, core inflation has not shown a significant cooling.
After the data release, $BTC and gold both fell, while the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened.
In the short term, I am no longer in a hurry to judge a market rebound, but I also do not intend to chase shorts.
For $BTC, first watch if the $82,000 level can hold, and for gold, watch around $4,100. If these two levels cannot hold, further adjustments are likely.#September CPI Arrives: How Will Crude Oil and U.S. Treasuries Perform?
September CPI Review: Inflation Resilience Exceeds Expectations, Market Returns to Risk-Off Mode
The September CPI data failed to continue the cooling trend, with both overall and core components surpassing expectations. The unadjusted annual rate rose to 3.7%, the core annual rate rebounded to 2.6%, while the core monthly rate remained just above the critical 0.3% threshold. This combination indicates that rising energy prices are gradually transmitting to core consumer sectors, with inflation stickiness stronger than previously estimated by the market.
After the data release, the interest rate market quickly repriced, year-end rate hike expectations intensified, U.S. Treasury yields surged, and risk assets came under pressure simultaneously, causing rapid sell-offs in the Nasdaq and crypto markets. The initial wave of selling was mainly driven by quantitative strategies, with a clear impact on market sentiment.
In terms of strategy, it is recommended to focus on the strength of the U.S. stock market's follow-through after the open rather than rushing to judge the direction. Until the key daily support is confirmed effective, bottom-fishing should be approached cautiously to avoid passive buying amid volatility. In the recent period, controlling position size and preserving principal is more important than chasing rebounds. Whether Bitcoin can hold its support depends on whether U.S. Treasury yields stabilize in the latter half of tonight — this is the real decisive factor.
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $SOXL
Market Bias: [Extremely Bearish in the Short Term, Testing 115–117 Support Zone]🔻
📊 Market Data and Structure
• Gap Down Breakdown: Previous close at 127.57, tonight's US session opened sharply lower at 118.97, then retraced to 120.89 before facing resistance and plunging unilaterally, hitting an intraday low of 117.00 (a drop of over 7.8% on the day).
• Resistance Fully Shifted Down: The 120 whole number level, previously a psychological support, has officially become a strong intraday resistance zone, accelerating the bearish alignment.
🌐 Derivatives and Overseas Perspectives
• AI Financing Bottleneck Bearish: Reddit (r/soxl) and Wall Street focus have shifted to Broadcom (AVGO) and Intel executives' warnings — the biggest obstacle to AI expansion is moving from "chip supply" to "massive capital financing capability and return rate doubts."
• External Inflation and Competition Double Hit: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) high-density DRAM progress pressures Micron and SK Hynix, combined with crude oil rising above $106 sparking inflation rebound concerns, leading institutional funds to accelerate withdrawal from triple-leveraged positions.
🎯 Key Trading Levels
• Strong Intraday Resistance: 120.50 – 122.00 (gap lower edge resistance)
• Support Below: 115.00 – 117.00 range
• Strategy: Avoid blindly catching falling knives before reclaiming 121 after the large gap down bearish candle; move stop profits on short positions to protect gains; spot buyers on the left side should wait for panic selling to shrink and bottom formation before entering in batches. $SOXL $ETH In 2014, 71 days after the US midterm elections, Bitcoin hit bottom.
In 2018, 39 days after the US midterm elections, Bitcoin hit bottom.
In 2022, 13 days after the US midterm elections, Bitcoin hit bottom.
In 2026, the US midterm elections are just 3 weeks away. This pattern shows that the time we hit bottom is getting earlier and earlier.
71 - 39 = 32 days faster. 39 - 13 = 26 days faster.
So maybe, just maybe, $BTC will hit bottom before the midterm elections. We don't have to remove risk after the elections, but can directly continue the upward trend. $BTC $OKB #US September CPI YoY rises to 3.7%, core inflation exceeds expectations
Strive spent $280 million to buy 3,311 bitcoins — of which $208 million came from exercised warrants, with the last batch of warrants expiring yesterday
According to 8-K: purchase window 10/5–10/9, average price about $84,500.
▪️ Holdings increased from 29,462 on 10/2 to 32,773 on 10/9, less than 20,000 three months ago
▪️ Approximately $208 million worth of stock warrants were exercised during the same period, accounting for three-quarters of this week's bitcoin purchases
▪️ About 15.3 million warrants remain, expiring at 5 PM EST on 10/13
▪️ On 10/12, it included "SATA issuance not less than $100" in the amended certificate filed in Nevada
The disagreement is not about how much it bought, but how much of the $280 million came from warrants.
Warrants are the cheapest fuel for companies like this: holders buy new shares at an agreed price, the company uses the cash to buy bitcoin, with no interest or principal repayment required. This well will bottom out on 10/13.
Next up are preferred shares: SATA alone contributed 61.5% of the financing amount (as of 10/6), and the company has filed to issue a second one with a fixed annual interest of 15%. The same machine, but with more expensive fuel.
Watch three things: ① How many of the last batch of warrants were exercised; ② Whether next week's purchase volume will drop; 💰 Money Printer Daily · Day 2
Which crypto business makes the most money?
* $PUMP — $5.83M cost, $2.17M revenue, 37% retention.
* Papertrade — $3.76M cost, $3.76M revenue, 100% retention.
* Polymarket — $3.53M cost, $540K revenue, 15% retention.
$PUMP remains #1, while Papertrade's costs dropped 36% in one day. $UNI also fell out of yesterday's top five.
Tether and Circle are excluded, despite generating $24.45M daily, as their revenue mainly comes from Treasury yields. $DOGE's "Japan Experiment": A Demystifying Compliance Challenge
The narrative around Dogecoin is quietly shifting. Japanese listed company ReYuu Japan, together with Web3 enterprise abc and the Dogecoin Foundation's House of Doge, have signed a tripartite strategic cooperation to explore directions such as gold-backed stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and joint funds. This is not another round of community hype but a "practical experiment" bound by compliance constraints.
The peculiarity of the Japanese market lies in the sophistication of its regulatory framework. JVCEA's "green list" mechanism sets a pre-approval threshold for token listings, and crypto assets are transitioning from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. This means that for DOGE to truly enter the Japanese commercial scene, it must first pass compliance checks—an approach fundamentally different from the logic of a single tweet from Musk moving the market.
The division of labor among the partners is also worth noting. abc is responsible for token design and smart contract development, ReYuu Japan handles localized business expansion, and House of Doge provides ecosystem coordination and global networking. ReYuu Japan completed its first batch of DOGE purchases in April 2026, holding approximately 254,000 DOGE in total. #September CPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence awaits resolution #TSMC Q3 revenue hits new high, profit performance to be revealed #US September CPI year-on-year rises to 3.7%, core inflation exceeds expectations $BTC $ETH US September CPI and core CPI are both higher than market expectations, inflation hasn't been suppressed.
High inflation makes the Federal Reserve even less willing to cut interest rates, and the timing of rate cuts may be delayed.
Cooling rate cut expectations → US Treasury yields tend to rise → risk assets like Bitcoin come under pressure.
Core CPI annual rate 2.6%, expected 2.5%; monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%, all exceeding expectations, signaling inflation rebound.
The market originally bet that the Fed could cut rates earlier, but this data will weaken rate cut expectations!
After the data release, the market has already started betting on three rate hikes next year.In one sentence: The US September CPI lands tonight at 8:30 PM, with three out of four figures exceeding expectations. Overall year-on-year is **3.7%** (expected 3.6%, August 3.4%), core month-on-month is **0.3%** (expected 0.2%, August 0.3%), core year-on-year is 2.6% (expected 2.5%, August 2.4%). Bitcoin dropped from 83,941.7 all the way down to 81,900, currently around 82,000, falling more than 2,000 dollars in 2 hours. Ethereum is worse, dropping from 2,521 to 2,429, currently around 2,434. Comparing with the evening review at 7 PM tonight, where is the difference? Tonight I said the hawkish scenario would be core exceeding expectations, for example month-on-month 0.3%, and it really is 0.3%. The script follows the hawkish path: core did not cool down, the bet on a rate hike in October jumped from 22% before the release to 40%–49%, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 5.19% to above 5.3%, and the dollar, already the strongest since April, is now even stronger. Non-yielding assets are uniformly hit, gold also dropped from 4,153 to 4,117. Why is core exceeding expectations the most critical? Because the part pushed up by oil prices is clear to the Fed—gasoline rose 9.1% in one month, energy rose 5.2%, these are known factors. But the core excludes food and energy, reflecting the real prices: it has not cooled down,#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
This inflation rebound indicates that the decline in US prices has not been smooth, and inflation resilience is stronger than many expect. Funds are quickly reassessing Federal Reserve policies; the originally anticipated timing for rate cuts is being pushed back, and the market sees a higher possibility of a rate hike in October. US Treasury yields are rising, which means risk-free investment returns are increasing, causing funds to withdraw from high-risk assets. In the crypto space, BTC is the first to come under pressure and decline, followed by mid-cap coins like TON and TRX weakening. Small-cap coins like BTW, which rely on hype, experience even more exaggerated volatility and can suddenly plunge when market funds tighten. Objectively, monthly data is only a short-term shock; the Fed’s decisions also consider other indicators like non-farm payrolls and PCE. If economic data cools down later, market expectations for tightening will quickly ease, giving risk assets a chance to recover. The macro environment is constantly fluctuating, so don’t bet on a one-sided rise or fall based on a single CPI report. The $SOL market cap is now around $64 billion, and you have to compare this number to other things to get a sense of its size. Coins are traded by the unit, while market cap is used to compare the size against other assets.
On the global company list, Nvidia's market cap is $5.5 trillion, and SOL is just a little over one percent of that. There are more than fifty companies with market caps exceeding $300 billion, and SOL doesn't make the top 100.
The combined market cap of all listed companies is $152.6 trillion, with SOL accounting for 0.04%, less than a fraction of a percent. Within this total market, it is a number after the decimal point.
This scale explains why even a small allocation of institutional funds causes big movements on this chain. Taking one percent out of a $500 billion fund is $5 billion, which is more than this market's daily trading volume.
With a small market cap, the same trading volume causes larger price fluctuations. This is typical for small caps and applies to other coins as well.
When institutions build positions, a few hundred million dollars can push the price up; when they exit, the same amount takes a long time to move out.
Market cap changes daily and can be seen directly on the market page. Checking it periodically gives a sense of scale. Unlike price, which changes every minute, checking every few days is sufficient to understand the magnitude.The PancakeSwap core team Kitchen today proposed the governance proposal "The Flip": 88% of the fees from v3 and Infinity pools will be directly distributed to LPs, and the daily CAKE issuance will be cut from 22,500 to 7,000.
88% goes to LPs, the printing press is cut by 70%
$CAKE really has something going on. Kitchen threw out "The Flip" today: 88% of fees from v3 and Infinity pools will be directly distributed to LPs, covering all 11 chains. Currently, EVM pool LPs only get 66-68%, this move maxes it out.
Issuance cut even harder: daily CAKE issuance cut from 22,500 to 7,000, a 69% cut, reducing annual issuance by about 5.7 million tokens. Based on 2025 trading volume, LPs will receive about $62 million more per year.
The trade-off is that v3 will no longer use fees to burn tokens; deflation will only remain through the old v2 method of 23% burn. Kitchen estimates net deflation can still be maintained, reducing about 190,000 tokens weekly. If launched in November, this might be the first example of a DEX token economy.Elon Musk takes on a new role, so why didn't DOGE rise?
On October 6, Elon Musk was appointed co-head of a new Pentagon project. A few years ago, news like this would have been enough to make DOGE surge for a day. This time, the market stayed calm and even dropped 5.6% over the following week.
Don't rush to sigh; I actually think this is a good thing: DOGE has grown up.
Let's recall. In 2021, the last time he appeared on a show, DOGE surged to 0.73. Back then, the market was like a fan event; when he spoke, the whole crowd stood up. Five years later, he goes into government, leaves government, and goes back in; the news gets bigger, but the market reaction gets smaller. Why? The audience in the arena has changed. Now, what determines the price is spot capital flow, contract positions, moving averages, and support levels—not just one person's words.
I chased that bullish candle in May 2021, my account was in the green for three days, then slowly declined over five years. That lesson wasn't cheap, but it taught me: idols are responsible for introducing you to $DOGE, but the path afterward must be walked by DOGE itself.
He's still in the headlines, DOGE is still on the chain. It's just that the rope tying them together has broken. Letting go actually makes the journey steadier. Tonight, the big coin (BTC) is falling so smoothly, and I think there are five reasons for this:
1. The big coin has already accumulated bearish momentum technically in the early stage, with highs continuously lowering. At least on a small scale, the highs in the past two days haven't been able to break above 84000.
2. Tonight's CPI negative data. Actually, recently the big coin has neither been able to fall further nor rise, mainly due to the timing of this CPI data release. When everyone is waiting for this data to be published, once it is released, it triggers a chain reaction.
3. From the ETF capital perspective, recently the big coin's ETF funds have shown a wavering state, with the overall funds in recent days consistently showing net outflows.
4. Previous posts have also mentioned this. Recently, several KOLs have said that the market is dull with no momentum, which also indicates that the market is not far from a big fluctuation. The CPI data release is just a fuse that activates all the liquidity of the funds.
5. BTC always moves in tandem with gold. Look at gold's current stance; it feels like 4066 might just be the final push.
#US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations #ASML Earnings Preview: EUV Orders as the Key Focus ASML is the world's only supplier of EUV extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. Advanced process AI chips from TSMC, Samsung, and Intel all rely on this equipment, which is regarded as a leading indicator for semiconductor and AI capital expenditures. This time, the market is not only looking at current revenue but also at new EUV orders and long-term capacity planning, which are the core factors for success.
The current round of EUV demand mainly comes from AI computing power expansion: TSMC is expanding 3nm/2nm AI chip foundry capacity, and Samsung and SK Hynix are increasing HBM supporting production lines. The market is focusing on new Low-NA EUV orders and the introduction progress of the next-generation High-NA EUV, which represents the willingness to invest in more advanced processes in the longer term.
It is important to distinguish: revenue reflects confirmed shipments, while orders indicate the foundries' future expansion plans. If new EUV orders significantly exceed expectations, it will confirm the continuation of AI capital expenditure prosperity, benefiting the entire semiconductor chain and boosting Nasdaq tech sentiment; if orders fall short of expectations, it will reinforce the expectation of "AI expansion slowdown," resonating with previous hawkish remarks from Broadcom and Intel, likely triggering sector valuation cuts.
Transmission to the crypto market: if ASML's data is strong, risk appetite will rise, providing sentiment support for BTC and ETH; conversely, weak orders will pressure tech stocks, and high-beta assets are more likely to weaken accordingly. However, this is an industry chain sentiment transmission and generally does not develop into an independent trend.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Nine years ago, someone who bought Ethereum for $50 is now depositing coins into exchanges.
That batch of coins cost $370,000 and is now worth 19.26 million.
He hasn't sold. He just unlocked the staking.
But why deposit?
First, let's talk about Ethereum's recent changes.
It dropped 4.45% in a week, now around 2500.
Three signals, all pointing to the same thing:
More people can sell, fewer want to buy.
First: coins are moving to exchanges.
340,000 coins.
Previously, coins were scattered everywhere; if you wanted to sell, you had to find a buyer first.
Now they're piled on trading platforms, ready to sell anytime.
Hodling ≠ holding in hand.
Second: whales are moving coins off-platform.
An OTC whale sold nearly 10,000 coins, cashing out 25 million.
Bought at over 2100, sold at 2600, made 24 million profit.
That same guy who bought at $50 nine years ago also unlocked all his coins and deposited them into Kraken.
At the same time, the same group of people turned their coins into cash.
Third: US buyers are retreating.
An index compares how much more the same coin sells for on Exchange C than on Some Exchange.
Now it's negative, the lowest in two months.
In plain language: the buying side over there is retreating.
It's not just retail investors running away.
ETF outflows have continued for 10 consecutive trading days, totaling 780 million.
For October, net outflow is 695 million.
I always thought this drop had nothing to do with whales.
Later I realized I was wrong.
For a reversal, we need to see whales come back to buy and ETFs start flowing in again.CPI hits hard! BTC's $80,000 defense battle, ETH kneels first in respect? Core CPI at 2.6%, expected 2.5%. This number is the only one to remember tonight. Ten minutes after the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged from 5.19% to 5.27%, BTC dropped 1.2%, gold fell 1.0%, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Previously, only gold and crypto were falling; tonight even US stocks can't hold up—the market no longer just worries about high interest rates but starts pricing in the possibility of more rate hikes. Before the CPI release, $BTC was oscillating around 83,700, $ETH was weaker near $2,500. The market was waiting for this signal. Now the signal is here, the direction is bearish. For traders, BTC is just over 3% away from 80,000; unless interest rates reverse, it’s hard for BTC to strengthen alone. Support first seen at 81,500. ETH’s weak structure remains unchanged, altcoins continue to bleed. Tonight, I choose to hold back. Data doesn't lie; what lies is your expectation of the data. #US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations Funding situation: Long liquidations dominate, ETF continues to be under pressure
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network was $140 million, with long liquidations at $81.14 million and short liquidations at $58.86 million. BTC long liquidations were $8.38 million, short liquidations $11.72 million — shorts were hit harder after the CPI, indicating a short squeeze in the short term after the data, but it did not sustain.
Funding rates have turned negative earlier; on the Gate platform, BTC/USDT funding rate dropped as low as -0.0054%, with shorts paying longs, reflecting a temporarily bearish market sentiment. ETFs still saw a net weekly outflow of about $679 million, with weak institutional demand being the core factor suppressing the rebound's strength. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Tesla delivery exceeding expectations shifts focus to profit recovery