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The core judgment of this post is: Do not assume that institutions have returned just because there was a renewed inflow of funds into ETFs on a certain day; it is necessary to observe whether the capital flow can continue to improve over the following days or even weeks.
As of the week ending October 9, 2026, the overall data remains cautious: investment products for BTC, ETH, and SOL all experienced net outflows. Although BTC saw a net inflow on Friday, the scale was insufficient to reverse the capital flow trend for the entire week.
1. What does the capital flow data indicate?
BTC
-679 million USD
Net outflow for the whole week; single-day net inflow on Friday of approximately 21.1 million USD
#TokenizedAssetsScaling #StandardCharteredRLUSD Ethereum bottomed out successfully, rising 130 points on low longs, entered long at 2425 on Tenpan, exited at 2527, dropped 102 points, 10189 oil
$ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 APT Long Position Strategy | ≤5x Leverage
Core Logic: Layer1/Move leading public chain, daily bullish alignment (EMA7>21>50) and firmly above all moving averages; volume breakout on Oct 10-11 surpassing previous high at 0.80, now retesting 4H EMA7/21 (0.842/0.844) for confirmation, RSI56 not overheated, indicating a breakout pullback continuation structure.
📍 Ambush Zones (divided into 3 levels)
① $0.832-0.845 → 40% (current price/4H EMA7-21 overlap zone)
② $0.800-0.818 → 35% (1D breakout previous high turned support + round number 0.80)
③ $0.765-0.785 → 25% (deep pullback/today's low 0.7612 + previous platform)
→ Average cost ≈ $0.812
🛡️ Hard Stop Loss: $0.745 (daily close below today's low 0.7612, invalidating pullback structure)
Stop loss range about 8%, position control ≤5x
🎯 Staggered Targets
• TP1 $0.900 (+10.8%, Oct 10-11 closing high + round number) reduce 40%
• TP2 $0.965 (+18.8%, Oct 10-11 wick high 0.9648) reduce another 35%
• TP3 $1.08+ (+33%, breakout new high extension) remaining runs
$APT Trade Management & Patience — $W Case Study*
Opened a $W position and left it unattended. Returned to find it up over 220% — effectively tripled.
Had I taken a 50% partial early, I would have likely exited prematurely. This outcome reinforces a key principle I follow: unexpected gains often come from disciplined inaction.
Key takeaways:
1. Over-management can hurt profitability
2. Patience is often more valuable than constant technical adjustments
3. Define risk (SL), define target trading "The Illusion of a Rebound"
The weekend $ETH market was like a trading hall with the lights off—thin depth, with a few bullish candles lighting up market sentiment. After two days of rebound, the bulls immediately shouted that the bull market had returned, as if forgetting that liquidity is the oxygen of the market. But in the pre-market trading before the official opening of the US stock market, the crypto circle collectively weakened first—this is just a rehearsal; if there is a real crash during the session, that will be the true test."My Current Three Moves" 💡
Bitcoin is still hovering around 83,000, the correction isn't over. I've reserved my bullets for below 80,000; if it really drops there, I'll go all in. The bull market isn't over yet, this pullback feels more like a shakeout. After buying, I'll reduce positions around 7.8 as planned. ⏳
I'm not chasing SPCX for now. Old Ma shouted that SpaceX's valuation could hit 1 quadrillion, sounds exciting, but 167 isn't cheap. If I want to add, I'll wait for a pullback; chips bought at the bottom are locked in, no moving. 🚀
Storage is actually starting to look attractive. Micron is around 1,030, HBM demand is very strong, next year's supply is basically locked, and contract prices are still rising. SanDisk is between 1,580–1,640, Citibank's target is 2,100, NAND shortages might last until 2028. 📦
My approach: gradually shift storage positions to SanDisk. Buy in batches on dips, don't chase highs.
So, are you guys going to lay in storage now, or wait a bit longer for a sweeter price? 🤔$SOL is bearish in the short term, currently priced at 108.52, next testing the low of 101.56. Long positions worth $26.29 million were liquidated in 24 hours, with only 820 trades, each with a large volume, indicating big position longs. Short positions had 1,560 trades but only $7.52 million, showing small position shorts being swept during the rebound. Leverage is being squeezed out. The amplitude is 11.3% but it closed down 3.21%, the rebound did not hold. There is still $930 million in open interest weighing down; if the price goes lower, remaining longs will have to reduce. Funding rates for all three periods are positive but very small, just background info. The higher highs on the chart indicate a larger structural level, not yet broken. However, the 7/25/99 moving averages are already in a bearish alignment, price has dropped below the averages, and the forced liquidations of longs are more urgent than that structure. I don't think 101.56 will hold; a new low will occur. Conditions to turn bullish: reclaim above 113.07, otherwise this view is invalid.On the eve of the CPI data release, can gold still be chased?
Gold is currently consolidating around 4200, with the price basically unchanged throughout the day. The US dollar index has surged to an 18-month high, and the market is still betting on another rate hike by the end of the year. The Middle East conflict is also supporting inflation, leaving gold prices stuck in a difficult position between the two.
Technically, on the 4-hour chart, 4220 is a strong resistance level; it has been tested several times but not held firmly. The support below is at 4110; if broken, the next target is the 4000 mark.
Market logic: Gold has already fallen quite a bit recently, but gold ETFs saw a frenzy of inflows in Q3, and central banks worldwide continue to buy gold, so a direct sharp drop is unlikely. Key upcoming events to watch are: Wednesday's CPI, Thursday's PPI and retail data, and Friday's Fed official Wash's speech.
Simple scenario: If CPI data is moderate, gold has a chance to break through 4220; if CPI data is high, gold will likely fall back to 4110, and if that support fails, it will head straight to 4000.
The blogger leans bearish, not chasing longs near 4220 on rebounds. Only if CPI clearly weakens and gold decisively breaks and holds above 4220 will the view change.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed
The recovery after the second bottoming is still ongoing, but the market looks more like an emotional repair rather than a full capital return. The price rebound is faster than volume recovery, indicating limited willingness to chase prices.
The $BTC 90,000 level requires special attention. It is both a psychological round number and a zone of previous transaction and holding cost exchange, where demand for breaking even and short-term profit-taking often occur simultaneously. If volume cannot expand accordingly and the price does not consistently close above this level, the probability of a false breakout remains high. Afterwards, attention should be paid to the quality of support around 85,000.
$ETH has risen from 2600 to around 2780, with a short-term structure looking better than before, but the previously lost important range has not been fully reclaimed, so a confirmed reversal cannot yet be claimed. Two short-term anchors: 2880 and 2680. If 2880 is not broken, weak oscillation continues; if 2680 is lost, 2600 may be tested again.
$SOL has rebounded from 130 to 148, following the market rhythm, but selling pressure above 155 has not significantly eased. Chasing longs now risks being worn down in repeated oscillations, even if the mid-term direction is ultimately correct, the holding experience may not be friendly.
In terms of operations, enter BTC after confirming it stabilizes above 90,000; decide on ETH based on reactions at 2880 and 2680; temporarily watch $SOL. As long as the mid-term structure is intact, a bullish bias can be maintained. $BRETT Damn it! BRETT's market situation is making me break out in a cold sweat. It's quiet outside, but inside it's dog-eat-dog—a typical Ponzi scheme orchestrated by insiders. At the 0.0054 level, the dog trader's scythe is already raised overhead. Don't rush to bottom-fish; let the bullets fly a bit. The K-line shows clear volume-price divergence, and there's a dense cluster of trapped positions above. This rebound is just a trap for retail investors. I've placed a short at 0.0054, with a stop loss at 0.0058 and a take profit target at 0.0046. Follow or not, your profit and loss is your own responsibility. If you want to get in, click the token market card below to check the market. 👇👇👇$ETH fell below 2400! Hundred-times long positions cut losses, relying entirely on $STRK short positions to claw back 94% 🤡
Today is a "Technical Insights Day," the market accelerated downward, ETH broke below the 2400 mark, and the whole network is in panic. Let's take a look at my tale of two extremes. 🍵
——————
📈 Reward for following the trend (Fig. 2):
$STRK short position, 3x leverage, average price 0.12119. Today it dropped all the way down to 0.08299, floating profit soared to +94.56% (a big blood recovery)!
Technical breakdown: Moving averages in bearish alignment, MACD continuously diverging below the zero line. In such a one-sided downtrend, shorting with the trend is the correct move, capturing big gains.
📉 Beating against the trend (Fig. 3):
$ETH long position, 100x leverage, average price 2526. Last night, stubbornly catching a falling knife, ended up getting pierced overnight. At 07:34 this morning, reluctantly cut losses, losing -336.75% (21.27U lost).
Technical reflection: Hundred-times leverage has almost zero tolerance in a one-sided downtrend. When the market breaks down, mainstream coins fall together; bottom-fishing against the trend only accelerates going to zero.
⚠️ Lingering hidden risks (Fig. 1):
$CL crude oil short grid, running for nearly 5 days, with 548 arbitrage trades accumulated, but unpaired losses continue to widen, total return dropped to -11.55%. Once again proving: in a one-sided market, grid trading is a bottomless pit like boiling a frog in warm water.CPI Night: No guessing on rises or falls, just preparing plans
CPI and PPI are appearing one after another. The real test is not the numbers themselves, but how the interest rate hike path will be rewritten. BTC, ETH, ZEC holders, it's best to turn off your emotions first.
If inflation exceeds expectations on both fronts, the market will reprice rate hikes: the US dollar and US Treasury yields will rise, and risk assets will come under pressure. BTC will fall first, ETH will be weaker, and highly elastic small coins like ZEC will retract more fiercely; gold will also struggle to remain unscathed. Don't rush to catch the falling knife at this time; the mid-slope is the easiest place to get buried.
If the data is below expectations, concerns about rate hikes will cool down, US Treasury yields will fall back, and risk assets will get a breather. BTC's rebound space opens, small coins recover, and gold strengthens. But this looks more like a range repair, not the starting gun of a bull market; resistance above still exists.
Last week's pullback was just an oversold correction; the trend has not reversed. ETH is weaker, funds still prefer BTC; ZEC is volatile, a single daily bullish candle does not indicate a trend reversal. Macro determines direction; candlesticks are just emotions.
My judgment: this time it feels more like "cooling down but not cold enough," so I won't chase highs or bottom-fish; I'll wait for the data to land before following. Are you leaning toward heat or cooling? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Watching the market made me a bit distracted because these three positions are like a mirror reflecting which asset money currently favors. Have you noticed that even though they all hold coins, BTC, HYPE, and ETH are treated completely differently? The latest Maji positions are out, and I've been watching them closely for a long time. Not looking at profit and loss numbers, but seeing which direction the money is siding with. BTC is short at 40x leverage, holding -243.96 coins, with an unrealized profit of +259,600 U, and an additional funding fee income of +51,200 U. Entry price is 84070, liquidation at 105740. This position is as comfortable as a recliner; as long as there isn't an extreme surge, it temporarily acts as the cash cow in the account. ETH is long at 25x leverage, holding 8742 coins, with an unrealized loss of -405,500 U, and funding fees are actually subsidizing at -9,867 U. Entry price 2546.58, liquidation at 1844.71. Still far from liquidation, but the loss is slowly widening, like a stretched rubber band—silent but constantly taut. The most striking is HYPE. Short at 5x leverage, holding -233,900 coins, with an unrealized loss of -4,861,700 U, making it the heaviest stone in the entire portfolio. But interestingly, the funding fee earned +1,021,900 U. High funding fees indicate crowded shorts, intense volatility, and amplified profit and loss. This is not a matter of direction, but a matter of time. What I see are not three independent positions, but a ranking of capital preference. Money is willing to pay for BTC shorts, willing to endure ETH longs' chronic bleeding, yet is being reversed on HYPE The market is still full of uncertainty, so I'm keeping my strategy simple: stay patient, preserve cash, and wait for better entries instead of chasing every rally. 🟠 1️⃣ BITCOIN — WAITING FOR A DEEPER PULLBACK BTC is hovering around the $83K area, and I don't think the correction is necessarily finished. I've kept some capital on the sidelines in case Bitcoin falls below $80K. If that happens, I'll reassess the setup and consider scaling in gradually. I still believe the broader bull-market th黄金这过山车行情，散户直呼扛不住
$XAU 最近这走势简直刺激，一波下探最低打到4156.6，转头就强势反弹，一路拉回4193.9附近来回折腾，多空来回拉扯，K线上蹿下跳。
看爆仓数据就懂有多狠，24小时黄金爆仓325.2万，多单爆仓301.4万占大头，不少朋友抄底抄在半山腰。上一秒以为跌稳了，下一根大阳线直接拉升，专扫低位埋伏的单子。
黄金波动猛，行情瞬息万变，千万别重仓硬扛，合约交易风险高，踏不准节奏很容易就被行情一波带走，交易记得管好仓位，别被短期涨跌牵着鼻子跑！$ZEC #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 🚨 The massive crypto case pursued for 9 years has landed! Latest progress on the recovery of 61,000 BTC in the Qian Zhimin case & the historical background:
UK High Court's latest ruling on October 12: Regarding the cross-border recovery of 61,000 BTC in the Lantian Gerui case, the property claims of Chinese victims will be governed by Chinese law, not UK law.
This means that the 16,000 claimants will most likely only recover their principal and interest, unable to enjoy the huge appreciation dividends of BTC soaring nearly 200 times...
📜 The origins and details of this Ponzi scheme involving 61,000 BTC:
1️⃣ Swept up 40.2 billion RMB domestically: Between 2014-2017, Qian Zhimin (alias “Huahua”) founded “Lantian Gerui” in Tianjin, illegally raising 40.2 billion RMB from 128,000 victims with slogans like “Three years to give you three generations of wealth” and baiting with up to 300% annualized returns.
2️⃣ Accumulated coins at low prices and fled with cold wallets: Qian Zhimin used 1.14 billion RMB of the illicit funds to frantically buy Bitcoin on platforms like Huobi at an average price of 2,815 RMB per coin, hoarding a large amount of BTC. On the eve of the 2017 crash, she fled abroad with a fake passport and a laptop containing crypto wallets.
3️⃣ Luxurious refuge in the UK, buying mansions and getting exposed: After escaping to London, she hired a Chinese delivery worker as an assistant to launder money.$BTC broke below 82000! $STRK short position surged 92%, $ETH 100x long position deeply trapped at -265%🤡
Today is our "Technical Insights Day." Woke up this morning to see the market directly smashing through the 82000 level, with panic everywhere.🌞
——————
📊 Market technical overview (combined with BTC 5-minute chart in Figure 3):
BTC accelerated its drop, hitting a low of 81750. Looking at indicators, MACD formed a death cross below zero, showing strong bearish momentum. But note! RSI6 has dropped to an extremely oversold level of 23.47.
Technical insight reminder: Extreme oversold does not mean an immediate rebound; in a strong bearish trend, oversold conditions can continue to deepen. Do not blindly catch a falling knife here!
——————
Looking at my positions, they are a textbook example of following and going against the trend:
🔥 Reward for following the trend (Figure 2): $STRK short position, 3x leverage, average price 0.12119. Today it kept dropping to 0.08387, with unrealized profit soaring to +92.38% (a big relief)! Obey the trend, and the market will naturally reward you.
📉 Punishment for going against the trend (Figure 1): $ETH long position, 100x leverage, average price 2526. Thought the major coin could hold up, but it was smashed down to 2459, with unrealized loss expanding to -265.61% (lost 16.77U). Going heavily against the trend to catch a falling knife ends like this.Brothers
Personally, I feel
BTC's rebound this time is almost at its limit
The trapped positions around 83700 to 84000 are pressing down
The volume can't keep up either
It's hard to get past the first surge
I think the chance of a reversal is very small
I'm more inclined to think it's an oversold rebound
After the rise, it will most likely retest
Of course, this is just my personal opinion
What do you experts think about BTC's trend next? 😁
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamaak says further rate hikes are still needed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? The previous sell-off crushed sentiment so badly that even the group chats went quiet. Now we're getting a modest rebound, but don't mistake a few green candles for a confirmed trend reversal. This is exactly the kind of market where chasing pumps can leave you trapped at the top. I've always believed that market pullbacks can create opportunities, but the hardest part is having the courage to act when fear is at its peak. Everyone talks about buying the dip, yet when prices actually plunge, hesRecently, I was chatting with friends in Singapore about a topic:
Could quantum computing threaten $BTC?
He said that in the next 5–10 years, if ECDSA really becomes vulnerable to being cracked, the first to be targeted by the market might be those early BTC addresses from the Satoshi era.
This is also why I've been following @1096361BTC recently.
The $MBTC project isn’t about cracking Satoshi’s wallet today, but about turning a distant, highly technical issue into a narrative that the crypto community can understand.
1,096,361 $BTC.
That number alone is intimidating.
It represents BTC that has been dormant since the Satoshi era and is among the most sensitive assets in the entire crypto market.
Previously, the topic of quantum threats was mostly discussed only by developers and cryptography circles; ordinary users didn’t really feel it.
But $MBTC has turned it into a community mission and a viral event, prompting more people to consider a question:
If quantum computing truly breaks through in the future, what will happen to these early BTC addresses?
What about exchange cold wallets?
Does the industry have a migration plan?
This matter is not far from Binance and BNB Chain. In May this year, BNB Chain already tested replacing ECDSA with post-quantum signatures. The test proved migration is feasible, but single transaction data size increased by more than 20 times, and throughput dropped by 40% to 50%.
I think this is where its value lies. Last night it dropped like a tadpole, today it jumped back to a frog
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
$PEPE dove with the market last night, then jumped from 397 to 413 this morning in one go. I couldn't resist and increased my position from 10 million to 22 million, 20x leverage, floating profit +1.8U.
Why dare to add? Two reasons: that spike last night was immediately bought back, indicating real money is supporting below; the temperament of meme coins—during a market-stabilized rebound, the highest jumper is always the frog.
A word of caution upfront: the daily chart is still below MA20, this is a rebound, not a reversal. I won't add a third position until it breaks through the 423 barrier; if it falls back to 395, the added portion will be rolled out first.
What do you think, can meme season still come back this wave? Let's discuss in the comments.
Risk reminder: personal live trading record, not investment advice, leverage risk is extremely high, please do not copy trades.🚨 Could $80,000 not hold? Jiang Zhuoer is optimistic about the $77,000 support, but below $75,000 may not wait!
On October 13, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the LBTC mining pool, stated that he believes the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 is high, but the $77,000 level is very likely to hold, and the market is unlikely to drop below $75,000.
Why focus on $77,000?
Because this level is the Point of Control (POC) for volume distribution in the previous consolidation range, and also the POC since the rise starting August 19. Simply put, this is the price with the highest concentration of trading volume in the range, making it a key level to watch.
Jiang Zhuoer's judgment is: the market may continue to pull back, but it may not give everyone a comfortable opportunity to bottom-fish.
However, the POC is an important reference point, not an absolute support. If selling pressure continues to increase, the price may still break below the expected range, so no one's judgment should be taken as a definitive answer.
💡 The hardest part of trading is not identifying where the bottom might be, but accepting that the market may not follow your script. Don't always aim to buy at the lowest point; first, consider how much drawdown you can tolerate. Opportunities can be waited for slowly, but risks must be managed in advance. $BTC has shown an independent trend today
South Korea's KOSPI plunged over 6%, Samsung and SK Hynix each dropped 8%, yet $BTC instead made a V-shaped recovery from below $81,000 back above $83,500, decoupling from Asia-Pacific tech stocks.
The feared break below $80,000 in the morning session did not happen, and this rebound doesn't look like a pure short squeeze—when prices fell, it didn't follow the stock market down, indicating there is genuine buying interest around $81,000. Of course, the liquidation of $7.27 million in short positions within 4 hours also helped; there is some short covering involved.
$ETH and $XRP also bounced from multi-day lows, showing a resonant market recovery. But don't pop the champagne yet: $84,231 is the 24-hour high and also the starting point of yesterday's break below $83,000, which is the stronghold for the bears. Oil prices are still hovering above $92, and with the US CPI release tomorrow, macro headwinds remain.
So currently: decoupling is a good sign, but if $84,231 can't be taken down, the market remains range-bound. A volume breakout above $84,500 would be a bullish signal; a drop back below $82,000 would indicate decoupling failed, and the focus would return to $80,000.
#Semiconductor sector concentrated sell-off, South Korea KOSPI down over 6% BIT bought 12,000 $ETH each at two addresses around 2420, with 20x leverage, a position size of 60.29 million, and unrealized profit of 2.19 million.
Why 2420? The previous low was 2405, only 15 dollars lower, a clear defense level, with plenty of room above. The 20x leverage liquidation price is about 2300, it would only liquidate after a 5% drop. Using 20x leverage shows confidence in the short-term direction.
Capital flow: net inflow from 4 to 12 hours, short-term funds are following; but net outflow from 1 to 15 days, long-term funds are still exiting. BIT is betting on a short-term rebound, not a reversal. Liquidation data: 7.12 million short positions liquidated in 1 hour, only 180,000 long positions liquidated, a small short squeeze just happened, BIT entered before the squeeze.
Logic: previous low support + short-term capital inflow + shorts being flushed out. Operation: light long position, defend at 2420, target 2580-2600 above, if it breaks below 2405 the logic fails. #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? $ZEC Damn it! The ZEC market is at it again with dogs biting dogs, completely silent outside with no news, purely funds aggressively pushing and dumping inside. I've been watching all morning; at the 1217.13 level, the dog market makers are holding the scythe high, a typical pump-and-dump shakeout tactic. Heavy selling pressure above, if volume can't keep up, it's a downward smash rhythm. No rush, wait for the signal. I'm placing a short near 1217.13, position size no more than 20%, stop loss above 1240, target first at 1150. If you want to follow, set up ambushes with tokens below, don't chase highs, don't go heavy. The above is just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, please make decisions cautiously.
👇👇👇🪙BTC Market Forecast
🟢⬆️Bullish Scenario: A strong breakout with volume above 84350, opening up rebound space and further testing higher levels. However, on the daily chart, even if it breaks through, it is still considered a rebound after a major drop, not the start of a new major bull market.
🔴⬇️Bearish Scenario: Resistance near 84350 halts the rebound. If it falls back below the 83200 support, the market will enter a volatile correction; if it breaks below the 80900 low, this rebound fails and a secondary decline will begin.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#September CPI announcement imminent, Hamarak says further rate hikes needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? October 13 $ETH Real-time Trend
ETH intraday dropped to $2,412 at one point, down over 5% in 24 hours, then recovered to the $2,450–$2,480 range; the decline was significantly greater than BTC, and the ETH/BTC rate weakened. The entire network saw $770 million liquidated in 24 hours, with ETH liquidations at $169 million leading, 86% of which were long positions.
Driving factors: ① Pressure from US tech stocks + stronger dollar + high 10-year US Treasury yields; ② Brent crude oil surpassed $106, inflation rebound suppressing risk appetite; ③ ETH spot ETFs had net outflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling $542 million in a single week, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $477 million; ④ However, whales increased holdings by 166,000 ETH in 72 hours, buying against the trend.
Key levels: $2,401 is the lifeline for bulls (breaking it triggers forced liquidation of $553 million long positions), resistance zone above at $2,500–$2,550.
Suggestion: On October 14 at 20:30 before CPI, lightly observe; if $2,401 holds, consider betting on a rebound
$BTC $ZEC #SeptemberCPIUpcoming, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMCQ3RevenueHitsRecordHigh, ProfitPerformanceToBeRevealed #BTCandETHSpotETFsOutflowsSimultaneous, HasInstitutionalDemandWeakened? Today overall, the high levels couldn't be pushed through, entering an early wait-and-see grinding phase. Funds are all waiting for tomorrow's US CPI inflation data, hesitant to go heavily long or short, and ETH is clearly weaker than BTC by a margin.
$BTC BTC (Bitcoin)
Current price reference: around $83,000, about -2.1% in 24h
Short-term resistance: 83,300–84,000, yesterday's rebound high was in this range, multiple tests today failed to hold above it, the 20-day moving average is a strong resistance, only with volume and a stable break here can there be room for further recovery
Short-term strong support: 80,800–81,000, the bottom range after the previous sharp drop, this is today's most important defense level; if effectively broken, it will open space for further downside
Market assessment: a weak consolidation repair after a sharp drop, not a reversal. BTC is relatively resilient, market funds are seeking refuge in Bitcoin, and Bitcoin dominance is slightly rising
$ETH ETH (Ethereum)
Current price reference: around $2,450, about -3.7% in 24h, the decline is significantly larger than BTC
Short-term resistance: 2,510–2,560, the first hurdle for rebound, to keep pace with BTC, this range must be reclaimed first
Short-term strong support: 2,400, key psychological support; looking further down, 2,300 is a deeper defense level
Market assessment: Ethereum is underperforming, altcoins and related sentiment are poor, rebound strength can't keep up with Bitcoin, passively following the market trend#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $ETH Spiciness options: Mild, Medium, Extreme
Mild (Conservative): Place orders between 2,430-2,450 waiting for a deep pullback, 2x leverage, stop loss at 2,394, admit defeat if it breaks the double bottom at 2,405, target first take profit at 2,540, then extend to 2,604, risk-reward ratio starting at 1:2.2. If no pullback is given, stay out and watch, better to miss out than chase highs. Medium (Recommended): Gradually buy between 2,460-2,480, 2x leverage, same stop loss at 2,394, targets at 2,604 and 2,672, risk-reward ratio from 1:1.8 to 1:2.7, take half off before CPI release, add more if data is clean. Extreme (Aggressive): Once it holds above 2,520, which is above the 10/13 high, directly chase the breakout, 3x leverage, stop loss at 2,474 based on the 10/09 low at 2,469; breaking this means this rebound is a fake move, targets at 2,604 and 2,672, risk-reward ratio from 1:1.5 to 1:3. Quick in and out, remember to cancel orders and exit before CPI, don’t let the data liquidate you.$ETH
Ether bro, you really are awesome!
I closed half of my short position at 2500 before.
I planned to close the remaining half at 2400,
but the lowest point was around 2407.
Now it has pulled back to around 2530 again 🤣🤣🤣
No worries, go up, I'll keep shorting as you go up 😂😂😂2 PM, the coffee at my desk has long gone cold. The Fed's rate cut expectations keep fluctuating, ETF funds swing back and forth, and the market shakes so violently it churns my insides. Staring at the screen until my eyes go dark, my heart completely shattered into pieces.
$ETH (the only dignity left)
Entry price 2533.92, current price 2526.82.
Isolated margin 20X, unrealized profit 38.09U, ROI +5.60%.
ETH is the only lifeline right now. A small profit of a few tens of U, yet I hold it with trembling hands, fearing that if the funds shift direction, this hope will vanish into thin air.
$DOGE (the guillotine around my neck)
Entry price 0.08387, current price 0.084768.
Cross margin 20X, unrealized loss -4.45U, ROI -21.00%.
Every twitch of DOGE suffocates me under the pressure of 20X cross margin. The margin ratio is only 1.16%, like a knife hanging over my head.
$NEAR (still waters with slight ripples)
Entry price 5.3, current price 5.309.
Isolated margin 10X, unrealized loss -4.5U, ROI -1.69%.
Just climbed out of the abyss, only to be pressed back down and rubbed on the ground—tasteless to consume, yet too precious to abandon.
After a whole day of tossing and turning, the account has a slight profit of 20U, but my soul is nearly drained. Even a worker has to pick the time to break down, so I can only continue to endure in this ruthless market.
#September CPI announcement imminent, Harker says further rate hikes are still needed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed
#BTC spot ETF continuous outflows Prices have risen, but money is relocating
Looking again at the money. $ETH holdings saw a net outflow of 669 million USD over 7 days; on 10/09, the day of the sell-off, 397 million USD fled in a single day, and on 10/13 another 271 million USD exited. The strange thing is that on 10/13 the price rose 4%, yet money was flowing out: the rise was not driven by new long entries, but by shorts buying back to close positions and exiting themselves. The rebound from covering shorts is quick but weak; whether it can upgrade to a true rally depends on whether new money takes over after breaking through the 2,586 level. The daily average funding rate is 0.0006%, roughly zero; longs are not crowded, so the upward space is what shorts have given up.
Earnings reports opening, CPI on the way
A quick note on external movements. On Monday, the Dow Jones rose 0.38%, while the S&P and Nasdaq were flat or slightly down; A-shares declined on low volume, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.43% at 3,797, and the ChiNext index pressed down 2.61%; Hong Kong futures also remained flat overnight. The world is waiting for two events: earnings reports from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Wells Fargo on 10/13, and the CPI release on 10/14. Cleveland Fed's Harnack is still calling for rates to keep rising, the hawkish tone remains. The crypto market itself is not doing well either; spot ETFs saw outflows last week, after absorbing 1.7 billion USD in late September, activity has basically stalled, and sentiment remains in the fear zone. Don't pretend to be a hero in front of the data wall; keep positions low and hold half overnight before the CPI release.On October 13, regarding the news that China Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has made progress in the new 4F² DRAM architecture and plans to launch DDR5 server memory, Elon Musk commented that once China masters the manufacturing technology of a product, its mass production capacity usually exceeds the total of all other regions worldwide, as proven by the lithium battery and solar industries.
Elon Musk pointed out that memory (RAM) was only a low-profit commodity about 3 years ago, and China now seems to be rapidly overcoming LP5 and LP6 memory technologies that follow universal standards. However, he also emphasized that the technical difficulty varies; more advanced technologies such as newer high-bandwidth memory (HBM) architectures, the static random-access memory (SRAM) layer beneath the logic layer, and 3D stacked RAM that ensures effective heat dissipation of the logic layer will be significantly harder for China to conquer. Influenced by expectations of competition in related industries, storage chip concept stocks such as Micron Technology (MU), SanDisk (SNDK), Samsung, and SK Hynix have recently declined.RSR peaked at 0.00315 yesterday but has fallen back to around 0.002 today. The top gainers list is the best at creating wealth illusions, but when funds settle, there is no sentiment involved. Last night, the US dollar remained strong, and the market continues to await US inflation data. BTC leverage positions have relatively contracted, while altcoin contracts are becoming increasingly crowded. Today, the most worthy study is not who gained the most, but whose long and short costs have already started to distort. 🔴 RSR｜High volatility, cautious chasing Upbit historical data shows a high of 0.00315 on October 12, and intraday on October 13 it once dropped to around 0.001937. Upbit funding rate monitoring page shows that the perpetual funding rate for RSR-related arbitrage portfolios is about -0.341%, indicating high short costs. Direction: Short-term defense, observe if it can stabilize again near 0.00236. If it falls below 0.001937, continue to watch for downside risk. 🟠 MINA｜Negative funding rate observation MINA also shows a negative funding rate on Upbit's arbitrage list. Direction: Temporarily neutral, waiting for price and open interest resonance. Negative funding rate does not necessarily mean a short squeeze. 🟠 SAND｜Funding cost divergence SAND has also entered Upbit's funding rate arbitrage watchlist. Direction: Wait for a breakout and confirmation of new positions; do not rely solely on negative funding rates to judge a rise. Today's allocation: Watch RSR for pullback risk, MINA for price reaction after short crowding, and SAND for funding confirmation. The market never lacks stories of overnight doubling. True trading skill is knowing who is paying the funding cost and who is bearing it.OKB remains on hold: latest price 123.03, still below EMA21 at 124.84582, local highs have not yet broken free from moving average resistance.
Highs and lows are rising simultaneously; the previous complete 4-hour cycle volume ratio was 2.69. Directly bearish views would overlook this improvement. Trading volume has entered a climax zone, and short-term pullback risk is also increasing. Volume alone is insufficient to confirm a reversal.
Only after continuously holding above the 123.41 resistance, reclaiming EMA21, and receiving confirmation from a subsequent complete 4-hour cycle volume will the bias turn bullish.
Only after continuously breaking below the 122.82 support, invalidating the local high judgment, will the bias turn bearish. $OKB The whole market is brutal: BTC slightly down, SOL -3.3%, median of 228 coins -4.17%.
$CT alone surged +16.6%, with a 24h trading volume of 75 million USD.
Yesterday OKX listed CT (Concrete.ai concept coin), and this morning from 09:00 to 11:00 it was pumped explosively, reaching a high of 0.4125 — from the early morning low of 0.335, a gain of over 23%.
Then what? After 11:00 it was dumped straight back to 0.335, dropping 18% in one hour.
This is not "fundamentally driven," this is a textbook new coin listing Pump & Dump script: Step one, OKX announces listing, news spreads, small-cap coins are easy to pump; step two, during the worst liquidity period in the morning, a small amount of funds quickly pump over 20%; step three, profit-taking triggers a stampede to sell.
Do you think you can touch this kind of coin? You can, but don’t chase in the first step. Wait until it dumps, volume shrinks, and consolidates, then see if there’s a second wave.
Today the whole market is bleeding, $CT is a live case study for observing the logic behind market manipulation.
Have you ever followed the first wave of a newly listed coin? What was the outcome? 😏Come down, SanDisk! A little more down! Give me another waterfall wave! I've been talking about short grid trading for over a month and finally seeing profits. Another 100 points, let the brothers enjoy it again! $SNDK The floor that didn't collapse after stepping on it twice
Look at the chart and speak. $ETH On 10/07, it surged to 2,698 and hit the top, on 10/08 it directly fell into a pit at 2,405; on 10/12 it rebounded to 2,578 but couldn't hold and fell back, on 10/13 it poked 2,407 then pulled back to 2,509, closing near the high. The price dropped twice at the same spot and was caught both times, so this floor is solid. MA3 and MA5 are tangled around 2,496, the price just moved up one body length, not strong yet, but the direction is correct for now. The top from 2,520 to 2,586 holds trapped positions for three days: 10/09 high at 2,519, 10/11 high at 2,553, 10/12 high at 2,578, each layer pressing down the next. The first rebound target marked on the chart is T1 at 2,604; if it can be broken, then move on to T2 at 2,672; if the floor collapses, the alternative support to watch is 2,357. Between 2,405 and 2,586 in this range, there is no scheming, only pods; after one batch is picked, wait for the next batch, don't fight the range.The $W direction seems consistent, but the volume contraction shows no clear stance.
$W 24-hour change: -32.11%, current price 0.01924. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour structures are weak, yet the current trading volume is only 0.11 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. The direction is consistent, but participation hasn't kept up, which is exactly the most debatable point right now.
Volume does not support the price movement: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.11 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can still move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the market. A single touch or one long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
Looking back at the 24-hour range: low at 0.01833, high at 0.03175. The current price of 0.01924’s position within this range directly affects the meaning of the same signal. When near the high, strength needs to prove it’s not a spike followed by a drop; when near the low, a rebound needs to prove it’s not a continuation of the downtrend. The range is not a forecast target, but a tool to check whether the current narrative is hiding risks.$SNDK $SKHY collectively plummeted, is the storage sector undergoing a major shift???
Last night, both SanDisk and SK Hynix sharply declined, driven not by a single negative factor but by multiple pressures releasing simultaneously!
On one hand, Chinese storage chip manufacturers continue to advance their technology, raising market concerns about intensified industry competition and potential pressure on future storage chip prices and profit margins; on the other hand, the earlier AI storage concept saw excessive gains, leading to concentrated profit-taking, compounded by the overall weakness in the semiconductor sector, further amplifying the decline.
Here’s the key point: this does not mean AI storage demand has completely fizzled out, but rather the market is reassessing industry competition, profit expectations, and stock valuations.
Going forward, focus on the strength of any rebound and key support levels, with a primary strategy of shorting on rebounds!! #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Harmak says further rate hikes are still needed First, note the position of $FET, then discuss the view: current price 0.2181, about 7.52% away from the 1-hour support at 0.2017, and about 10.09% away from resistance at 0.2401.
The biggest concern for $FET is not the rise or fall, but that after a price move, participation hasn't kept up. The 1-hour and 4-hour are both weak, with RSI at 48 and 45 respectively.
I only keep one confirmation for an upward move — a breakout above 0.2401; and only one condition to negate the upward move — a drop below 0.2017. Other fluctuations are considered noise for now.
If you had to pick one validation point first, would you watch for resistance confirmation or support breakdown?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.SanDisk's move this time is purely an indiscriminate emotional sell-off!
It had been hovering around 1600 for so long, everyone thought it would continue to consolidate, but then a message from ChangXin Memory suddenly flipped the table: a major breakthrough in DRAM technology, with plans to supply AI data centers by the end of the year.
Wow, the entire storage sector got dragged down instantly. Micron and Hynix didn't escape either, but SanDisk suffered the worst, dropping over 9% in two days, now hovering around 1444.
Some might be confused: SanDisk deals with NAND, ChangXin is about DRAM, they’re totally unrelated, right?
But when the market is bloodthirsty, who cares about segmentation? As long as it touches the word "storage," just sell first and ask questions later 😂
Short term, I’m still bearish; the bulls haven’t even put up a decent fight this round.
That said, after a sharp drop, a fake rebound to lure buyers is most likely. For those wanting to bottom-fish, don’t get itchy-handed—wait until real money comes in to push the price up before making a move! $SNDK $BTC #SeptemberCPIReleaseComing #HarmakSaysFurtherRateHikesNeeded My private messages exploded, everyone is asking Pharaoh why BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, suddenly downgraded US stocks—is it a sign of a major change? Pharaoh directly said, don't panic, this is not bearish, it's "reducing positions at high levels to lock in profits." BlackRock is not pessimistic about US stocks; they think the short-term volatility is too high, so they are locking in some profits and switching to buy more attractive short-term bonds. First, let's see what BlackRock did. For the first time in six years, BlackRock Investment Institute ended its underweight stance on US Treasuries, upgrading short-term US Treasuries to overweight and long-term US Treasuries to neutral. At the same time, they downgraded US stocks from overweight to neutral, and US agency MBS to neutral. Why the shift? The core reason is simple: US Treasury yields are too high and very attractive. The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged from 0.9% in 2020 to over 5.2%, hitting a more than 20-year high. BlackRock did the math: at the current yield level, US Treasury yields would have to rise another 75 basis points over the next 12 months for total returns to turn negative. That means there is a 75 basis point safety cushion, making it comfortable to earn interest passively. Moreover, BlackRock believes the market's bets on Fed rate hikes are "overdone." The interest rate swap market shows traders expect at least three rate hikes in the next 12 months, but BlackRock thinks this is exaggerated. Once these expectations are corrected, short-term US Treasuries will benefit first. So what does downgrading US stocks mean? BlackRock clearly stated this is not a change in their long-term faith in AI; it is "managing short-term risk." The volatility brought by AI infrastructure is too说了不知道多少天，直接市价空，$ETH 在2500左右就是最好的做空时候，不知道多少韭菜在做多，我这一觉睡醒30多万美金浮盈没了。
昨天晚上喝的有点多，大额爆仓预警响了，我看跌了也没管，就这一会又拉上来了，现在继续做空。
昨天$BTC 在83491我冰山拆弹直接空进去了，也是浮盈最高的，现在继续拿着吧，其他山寨都跌飞了，像昨天晚上的两个山寨空单，收益率都吃满了。$ZEC $ETH $BTC Main focus $ETH | Strategy is long, rules must not be broken, no heartburn after losses
$ETH current price 2,509, direction is long. Buy in batches on pullbacks at 2,460-2,480, stop loss at 2,394, target first at 2,604, optimistic at 2,672, leverage capped at 1-2x. The long position entered at 2,520 last period was stopped out by the big bearish candle on 10/12; taking a loss is not shameful, stubbornly holding on is. This time wait for a deeper pullback before entering, all entry points correspond exactly to the marks on the chart. The strongest reason: the double bottom at 2,405 and 2,407 held firm, the floor is solid. On 10/13, the move from 2,407 back up to 2,509 was bought up by the bears themselves. Set the stop loss first before discussing ideals, rules must not be broken, no heartburn after losses.
Next door, steady but boring
$BTC pulled back from the 10/12 low of 81,700 to 83,340, oscillating within the range of 80,344 to 85,559 over 7 days. On the position side, there were three consecutive days of net inflow from 10/10 to 10/12, then a leak of 90 million on 10/13, with a fee rate of 0.0067%, milder and slightly bullish compared to $ETH. As long as the lifeline at 80,344 is not broken, it remains a sideways market. It is steady indeed, but also truly boring. If you want to profit from volatility, better to trade $ETH. $STRK 永续50倍空单，0.10422开，现0.08654，浮盈+848.20%。
逻辑很简单：0.10422 附近反复冲高不破，每次反弹都被快速砸下，上影线越来越长，买盘明显衰竭。等到放量跌破支撑，右侧确认，跟空进去。50倍，止损 0.11。这一波跌得比较流畅，完全没给反抽机会，收益直接翻了8倍多。
现在把止损挪到 0.09 锁利。下方 0.08 如果放量跌破，还能再拿一拿。$BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 I said it back when it was 0.36, if you want to bottom-fish $null, you have to pay attention to whether the RB chain will have the next big hit. If not, it means trading volume buybacks and income will greatly decrease, inevitably causing a continuous decline. This theory still applies today. The RB chain can't heat up; you can even see pons starting with 0.1. If you want to know when to bottom-fish, first check the RB chain trenches and you'll understand.
This kind of token has no support or resistance at all. $ZEC 永续50倍空单，1,303.92开，现1,214.65，浮盈+341.96%。
没想太多：前期盘整够久，1,303.92 平台反复确认有效，顶部特征很清楚。放量阴线一出就进，跟趋势不跟情绪。50倍，止损 1,350。砸得又快又稳，完全不给二次进场机会，大肉单到手。
1,250 先锁一层安全垫。我个人判断 1,180 附近会有支撑，到时候看量能决定是走还是留，不提前猜底。$BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $NEAR, the privacy sector leader that has quadrupled in two months, is this correction sufficient? Is it a good time to buy the dip?
My personal view is to wait a bit longer! The price movement of $NEAR in these two months is basically a replay of $ZEC's previous trend. The main upward wave gave the market no time to react; by the time people realized it was going to surge, it was already too late to get in. If you had bought the dip at 4.75 at the end of last month, you might have been shaken out last week. So trading this coin is very challenging. Don't be fooled by it rising from just over 1 to over 6—I can confidently say very few who went long during this period actually exited with profits! I just saw a whale long position liquidated for over 2 million dollars. If whales buying the dip get liquidated, what about us? I think it's better to wait and see if it drops to 4.5 in the next couple of days. If it reaches 4.5, then I would feel confident to buy the dip and go long!$CT called out to $3, but those calling it are not responsible for buying
$CT surged fiercely today, and posts calling trades increased accordingly.
Here's how the target price of $3 came about:
What is this number:
It's just a posted price, not a calculated one.
No one clarified what market cap corresponds to $3, nor who would buy at that price.
What was actually done:
The poster only indicated a direction, without reporting position size or cost.
If it rises, they claim they were right; if it falls, they deny responsibility.
Calling trades and holding positions are two different things.
One only requires typing; the other requires real money.
The poster does not bear your costs.
#TokenizedAssetsAccelerateExpansion, how far is large-scale implementation? $CT