Orbit Post Sitemap
On Monday, November 2, Eastern Time, Oracle submitted two filings to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: a $10 billion common stock offering and a $10 billion preferred notes issuance, with maturities ranging from 2029 to 2046. The two are independent; if one doesn't go through, the other will proceed. The stock closed just above $119 that day, down about 8.8%, not far from the 52-week low of $114.5. This money didn't just appear out of nowhere. Five days earlier, the same figure caused the stock to rise 10%. On Wednesday, October 28, Oracle held an investor day and gave two numbers: fiscal year 2030 revenue of at least $225 billion; and a cap of $20 billion on additional capital market fundraising for investments from fiscal years 2027 to 2030. The market read this as "finally a cap." The stock closed up 10.73% that day, at $144.54. UBS analysts called it a big relief in their post-event report. Five days later, the company raised the $20 billion as promised. The stock not only fell back but dropped even further. What was sold off on Monday? Baird analyst Rob Oliver's reaction was the most straightforward: this is exactly what they forecasted; he doesn't understand why the market is panicking. He was right, but missed one layer. Last week, buyers saw a cap; this week, they saw execution. A cap is just a statement; execution is real dilution. Roughly calculated at Monday's closing price, $10 billion in common stock...The 233 million $XRP held by the hacker was silent for a while, but just now it moved on-chain, directly transferring out 80 million tokens, leaving the original address almost empty.
The funniest part is that the contract long-short ratio was forcibly pushed to 3.72, with retail investors all holding on and leveraging up inside.
With hundreds of millions of dirty funds ready to dump at any time, the main force wouldn't let the market go down without a fight; they would trigger a wave of long liquidation to justify this heavy position. Big players are transferring, retail investors are taking the bags, and the shorts here are stubbornly holding on, waiting for the dump button.
#XRP
$XRP
👇$ARB
Arbitrum illustrates an important question facing Layer-2 networks: how much ecosystem activity can translate into sustainable economic value? A large application ecosystem is useful, but competition between Ethereum scaling solutions continues to intensify. Developer retention, transaction demand, decentralization progress, and the relationship between network usage and ARB token utility deserve separate attention rather than being treated as the same metric.Calculating, the incremental operating expenses for the single quarter exceeded the incremental revenue by $1.5 billion. When I saw this news, the first thought was not "computing power is about to take off again," but rather, with revenue growing so fast, why hasn't it outpaced expenses? I usually start by accounting for this.
① Anthropic's updated prospectus shows Q3 revenue at $16.96 billion, up from $11.56 billion in Q2, an increase of $5.4 billion. Demand is indeed growing, and purchasing computing power is supported by business, but revenue scale alone cannot prove expansion efficiency.
② Q3 operating expenses were $17.5 billion, up from $10.6 billion in Q2, an increase of $6.9 billion. The increase in expenses exceeds the increase in revenue, indicating that at least this quarter, business expansion did not simultaneously ease operating pressure, so we shouldn't just cheer for revenue.
③ The material mentions a $895.4 billion commitment but does not show the full timeline and payment schedule. Long-term commitments cannot be directly treated as current expenses; if resource investment is realized first and revenue realization is slower, then the pressure to absorb costs will be more pronounced, which is my speculation.
My judgment is that this news is more like a stress test of AI expansion efficiency and should not be directly interpreted as a general positive for the crypto sector. Requesting data centers from former mining companies is a resource flow issue; whether it can improve operations is another matter. When judging this kind of expansion, do you usually focus more on revenue growth rate, expense increments, or the payment schedule of long-term commitments? Seeing Anthropic approach cryptocurrency mining companies for power and data centers, I immediately felt a sense of familiarity from the previous round: when the story gets lively, everyone starts scrambling for underlying resources again. They are still signing long-term cloud contracts and directly buying chips; the computing power cost is unavoidable.
This time it's different—the demand comes from model training and enterprise calls, not mining coins. What I care about is not whether mining companies can latch onto the AI label, but whether old resources might be repriced. My guess is, if these power and data centers can truly meet AI demands, then the beneficiaries are likely the operators holding the usable resources, not all the tokens involved.
I see this as a signal of intensifying infrastructure competition, not as a broad bullish sign for the crypto market. Next, watch the actual contracts and renovation costs; don’t equate "having power" directly with "making money from AI" just yet.6.3 billion stolen, ETF outflows totaling 1.6 billion, price dropped from 4950 to 2257, are you still holding ETH?
The largest hack in history stole $6.3 billion worth of ETH, ETFs have continuously bled 1.6 billion, price halved from 4950 to 2257—but on-chain whales are still accumulating, with corporate holdings exceeding 6 million ETH. Is this the last dip of the bear market, or smart money feeding on your losses?
Let's look at the surface first: bad news piling up, but the price hasn't collapsed.
In October, it dropped 15%, Binance was hacked for 6.3 billion, ETFs had daily net outflows, and the Fear & Greed index hit rock bottom. Normally, this would be a crash scenario.
But ETH didn’t crash. After the hack, it dropped to 2170, then bounced back to 2257.
Think about it—such a huge shock didn’t break it, what does that mean?
First: Even with 6.3 billion stolen, it didn’t break 2170, that’s the scariest signal.
On October 29, Binance suffered the largest hack in history, $6.3 billion, mostly ETH. North Korea-related groups were behind it.
If this were 2022, this news would have smashed the price down to 1500.
But this time? The low was 2170, then a rebound, now 2257. The market is too lazy even to panic.
Those who needed to run already did so between 4950 and 3000. Those still in the market are either holding on stubbornly or waiting to pick up cheap coins.
On-chain data tells you—corporate holdings have accumulated over 6 million ETH, Bitmine and others are still buying.
Every cut you take, someone else is picking up.
Second: ETFs are bleeding, but do you know who’s buying?
On November 2, a single-day net outflow of 140 million, led by BlackRock’s ETHA, with a total outflow of 1.6 billion in October.
Sounds scary? But do the math:
There’s still a cumulative net inflow of 12 billion. The outflows are profits, not principal. Institutions are taking profits, not fleeing.
Even more telling—the staking rate is already above 30%, and exchange balances have been low for months.
What does this mean? There’s less ETH available to sell, and more locked up.
ETFs sell circulating supply, but the circulating supply is shrinking. The supply side is quietly tightening, while the price is artificially suppressed.
This isn’t a bear market; it’s a classic script of smart money accumulating chips at low levels.
Third: The technicals look bad, but oversold is the biggest bullish signal.
Daily RSI is 33-40, close to oversold. Price is below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, in a downtrend channel, with lower highs—technicians are shaking their heads.
But don’t forget: RSI staying in oversold territory for long often leads to the strongest rebounds.
Key levels
Support: 2200-2220 (recent lows + lower Bollinger Band) → 2150 → 2100 → 2000 (psychological bottom)
Resistance: 2280-2300 (short moving averages) → 2320-2350 (200-day EMA) → 2400-2450
Volume breakout above 2300 confirms bullish structure. Breaking below 2200 opens downside space.
Bull vs. Bear, you decide
On one side:
- 6.3 billion hack didn’t break 2170, showing strong bottom resilience
- Corporate holdings exceed 6 million ETH, whales accumulating
- Staking rate above 30%, exchange balances low, supply shrinking
- RSI near oversold, big rebound potential
- Citi 12-month target 3028, Devcon upgrade underway
On the other side:
- ETFs continuous outflows, institutions taking profits
- Macro pressure, Fed rates 3.75-4%, CPI sticky at 3.7%
- BTC dominance 59%, altcoin season not here
- L1 fee revenue declining, deflation narrative weakening
- November 6 Nonfarm Payrolls, November 10 CPI data may hit again
Trading strategy
Short term (1-3 days):
- Light short at resistance 2280-2320, target 2220-2200, stop loss 2350.
- Light long if volume supports bounce at 2200, target 2280-2320, stop loss 2170.
- Range trading, quick in and out, don’t get attached.
Mid term (1-4 weeks):
- Hold 2150-2200, if ETF outflows slow and macro data softens, accumulate in batches, target 2500-2800, stop loss 2100.
- If volume breaks below 2150, wait or light short to 2000.
Long term (quarter+):
- Fundamentals remain, smart contract leader unchanged. Macro turning and ETF inflows could push 3000+ not a dream. But you must endure the volatility in between.
Bottoms aren’t called out, they’re endured. When you can’t hold on, others are building positions.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $ETH Binance was hacked, such a major negative event, yet Ethereum only dropped 4% and still held strong.
Retail investors are still panic selling, but on-chain whales are frantically buying around 2279, with specific addresses swallowing over thirty thousand tokens in one go. Fees have even turned negative, with shorts paying interest daily to maintain their positions.
The hacked entity is the exchange, not the Ethereum network. Shorts are completely holding firm here; once the sentiment is digested, a short squeeze drama is ready to unfold at any time.
#ETH
$ETH
👇$DOGE
DOGE current price is about $0.074, down 2% in 24 hours, down 20% in a month, down 56% in a year.
Big whales are selling. Addresses holding 10 million to 100 million coins dumped about 120 million coins since last Thursday, with small retail investors taking over. The net selling pressure exceeds 20 million coins. DOGE ETF has had net inflows for three consecutive weeks, but the total over three weeks is only 3.5 million, the direction is right, but the volume is negligible.
Technically, the 50-day moving average has fallen below the 200-day moving average, forming a death cross. Support is seen at 0.073; if broken, it will go down to 0.072.
On the ecosystem side, Dogecoin Labs was just established, pushing forward wallets, applications, and merchant payments as a package. The story has moved a step towards "usable," but the price has not yet responded.
Currently, big whales are selling, small retail investors are buying, and ETFs are just a drop in the bucket. Whether 0.073 can hold depends on whether real money comes in before the selling pressure is fully absorbed. Everything is falling! US stocks, Korean stocks, and gold are all dropping! Bitcoin $BTC can't stand alone either! Global tech assets are weakening in resonance, and BTC's pressure can no longer be hidden!
The KOSPI in South Korea has been highly volatile these three days, with semiconductor leaders leading the sell-off. As the leading indicator of the global tech chain, its weakness has never been an isolated signal. The US Nasdaq continues to be under pressure, and concerns about tech stocks are constantly fermenting; A-shares and Hong Kong stocks follow the external markets simultaneously, with weak rebounds and visibly increased risk aversion.
Among all assets, Bitcoin's trend is the most worrisome.
Its previously brief resilience is being worn down bit by bit, with its baseline continuously moving lower and each rebound weaker than the last. The long positions that Mr. Shi laid out around 77,000 have all been fully realized and exited. Top-tier funds choosing to pull back early essentially predict this chain of risks.
Now the entire tech asset chain is synchronized. The semiconductor sell-off in Korean stocks and the Nasdaq's weakness will inevitably transmit this panic sentiment to the crypto market. The 75,000 level is already within sight.
Don't still fantasize about a bull market's initial shakeout; when global tech risk assets collectively weaken, Bitcoin is unlikely to stand alone.
The risk is already on the table. Respect the choice of capital and don't stubbornly resist the trend. #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化
⚠️This is only a market record and does not constitute any trading advice $OKB
OKB's price action has been quite divided these past couple of days. Yesterday, it surged riding on Binance's troubles and the capital moving to OKX, but today it dropped more than 6%, currently falling just above 120, failing to hold yesterday's rebound.
There was a reason for that surge. After Binance was hacked, tens of billions flowed out, and OKX picked up a net inflow of 445 million, ranking first among exchanges. As OKB is OKX's platform token, it theoretically benefited, touching around 115 intraday.
But that only lasted a day. The problem is that the incoming funds didn't turn into buying pressure. OKB's daily trading volume shrank significantly, with some periods only seeing 3 million to just over 10 million USD; the liquidity pool is too shallow, so even slight selling pressure caused a crash. Some community members pointed out clearly: the gas fees from X Layer don't flow back to OKB, breaking the token's value capture; relying on news alone can't attract real money.
So the issue with OKB now isn't a lack of story, but that the story can't materialize. The capital migration is real, and regulatory cooperation is real, but the market doesn't acknowledge it. In the short term, watch if the low around 110 can hold; if it can't, the price will grind lower. Chasing this kind of news-driven rebound requires careful consideration of whether liquidity can support your position. CFX is quite interesting today. The current price is about $0.069, up 35% in 24 hours, and it briefly touched $0.072. Among a bunch of coins that keep falling, this increase is quite eye-catching.
There is no clear explanation for the rise, but two topics are being discussed in the community. One is the BSIM hardware wallet; bullish people think this is a differentiated track, the product has highlights, and effective promotion could attract new users. The second is the USDT deposit and withdrawal on the Conflux chain. Currently, Kraken, HashKey, and KuCoin support native channels, but Binance and OKX still require intermediaries. Some are betting that major exchanges will open native support later.
However, there are cautious voices as well. Some say the Hong Kong stablecoin narrative has already been taken, leaving less room for imagination; BSIM itself has unknowns in cost, compliance, and user habits, and the timeline for implementation is uncertain. Additionally, CFX has no hard supply cap, and continuous issuance is a burden for long-term holders.
So this 35% surge seems more like short-term sentiment-driven rather than a major fundamental change. Whether to chase it or not is up to you, but such a sharp rise without clear catalysts can also lead to a sharp pullback.$HYPE analyzed this coin and found it has immense potential. It has currently pulled back from the high of 97, with news and technical factors intertwined.
News:
The biggest positive is ICE (the parent company of NYSE) partnering with Trade.xyz, planning to use Hyperliquid for a US-regulated perpetual market, driving the price higher. The protocol buyback is strong, with about 15.3 million USDC AQAv2 revenue expected on November 3rd to be used for further buybacks, creating continuous buying pressure.
Short-term pressure comes from Paradigm unlocking 2.55 million HYPE (about $224 million) over two days, triggering sell pressure expectations; on November 6th, about 180,000 tokens will be unlocked by core contributors, a small volume but adding to bearish sentiment. The overall market weakness amplifies the pullback.
Technical:
The 2-hour chart shows a continued decline after the positive news was realized, with the price falling below short-term EMAs (5/10/20). Support is around 80.58, resistance at 92.55. The liquidation chart is roughly balanced, with the largest concentration above 85.25 (shorts about 2.15 million), and imminent liquidation below near 82.3 (longs about 2.01 million). Short-term spikes sweeping these two levels carry high risk. Short-term indicators are weak, but mid-to-long-term gains remain significant. Hong Kong's recent RWA moves are really quite aggressive. Many people think it's just another gold token, but it's actually a completely different story.
Let's break down the gameplay behind it: Zhaojin Mining holds the physical gold, CCB (Asia) acts as custodian, then issues an on-chain certificate called gToken, directly pegging a token to a real gold bar.
But the most hardcore part isn't just the gold bar itself; it's that they have integrated the physical gold into the interbank tokenized deposit settlement system.
Previously, when large institutions traded gold, verifying funds, transferring ownership, and interbank reconciliation were all very inefficient. Now, the transfer of gold certificates and bank fund settlements are done directly on one chain, with instant clearing, reducing massive reconciliation costs.
Additionally, HSBC has obtained a license to issue the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin RedCoin, which has already entered retail payments through PayMe, and in the future can be directly used to purchase these tokenized assets.
In short, previous gold tokens only let you "buy price fluctuations," but Hong Kong now aims to make gold a compliant asset recognized by banks, capable of settlement, collateralization, and cross-border delivery.
The entire chain is connected: physical gold ➔ on-chain certificate ➔ bank custody ➔ deposit settlement ➔ stablecoin distribution.
In the second half of RWA, just "issuing tokens" to tell stories might be doomed; the real big money likely belongs to the institutions holding the "asset issuance and bank settlement gateways."$ETH
ETH is currently around $2246, down less than 2% in 24 hours, which doesn't look too bad, but the longer-term view is quite painful: down 16% in a month, 37% in a year.
Technically weak. The price is pressured by a bunch of short-term moving averages, with the 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day all above. The recent resistance is between 2269 and 2351. RSI is near 32, close to the oversold zone, but oversold doesn't mean a rebound; it’s normal to stay low for a long time in a downtrend.
There is pressure on the capital side. BlackRock sold 580,000 ETH in their Ethereum ETF in October, worth about $1.3 billion. The US spot Ethereum ETFs have had net outflows for six consecutive days. On the other hand, BitMine is still buying, holding 4.9% of the circulating supply, but it can’t absorb all the selling pressure alone.
In the short term, two things matter. The support zone is between 2219 and 2237; if broken, it may drop to the 200-day moving average at 2158. On the upside, it needs to reclaim 2269 first to catch a breather. Also, the US midterm elections vote is today; the crypto market is cautious, and no one wants to make big moves before the results come out.$HYPE "freeloaded" another sum of money from Circle: the second installment of $15.92 million has arrived
Let's clarify a basic logic:
Circle $CRCL issues USDC, users deposit dollars to exchange for USDC, and Circle uses that money to buy U.S. Treasury bonds to earn interest. So the reserve interest of USDC has always belonged to Circle. But HYPE actually snatched this piece of the pie.
How did they snatch it?
In August 2026, HYPE launched a framework called AQAv2. The rule is simple: if you want USDC to be the main margin and quoting asset on HYPE, you have to give me about 90% of the on-chain interest earned by this batch of USDC. Circle had to agree to keep tens of billions of dollars in share. If they refused? The money would all be converted to USDT.
Today, the second payment was delivered on schedule. $15.92 million USDC. That's 9.2% more than the first payment on October 3 ($14.58 million). At the current price, this money can directly burn about 190,000 HYPE tokens.
This makes HYPE the only major L1 that directly profits from USDC reserves. With the current stock, daily income exceeds $500,000.
All this money is used for buyback and burn, creating a crazy flywheel: the larger the USDC supply → the more protection fees paid → the more HYPE burned.
Using Circle's interest to boost its own market. This business is amazing!The USDT supply on TRON has reached about $94.2 billion, leaving Ethereum behind; the cumulative on-chain transactions have just surpassed 16 billion, with a daily average of about 11.56 million transactions. This is not a speculative bubble; the throughput is supported by stablecoin settlement flows.
A high cumulative transaction count looks good but does not mean all users are actively paying. Critics might argue that it includes resource delegation, idle transactions, and volume inflation, and that daily active users and real payment scenarios are the true metrics. In TRONSCAN's composition, USDT transfers account for just over 20%, so it’s necessary to compare the seven-day daily average settlement volume and active addresses, rather than focusing solely on total transaction count.
Observing over a week: if the on-chain USDT supply falls below 90 billion or the daily average transactions drop below 9 million for three consecutive days, then the 16 billion milestone should be regarded as a promotional figure, not as locked-in market share. Snapshot around 16:05 Beijing time, Binance spot about $0.321, 24-hour change about +1.8%.
$TRX
#TRON #USDT #cryptocurrencySpaceX has been quite conflicted recently. The fundamentals just delivered a strong performance, but the stock price took a hit. Let's start with the hard facts. Q3 revenue was $14.6 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, with a net profit of $4.4 billion — the first profitable quarter since going public. The most eye-catching is the AI segment (which has been renamed "Superintelligence"), generating $7.56 billion in revenue, soaring 830% year-over-year, surpassing Starlink for the first time as the largest revenue source. Starlink also did well, with $5.25 billion, up 69%. But the stock price didn't acknowledge this. On Friday, it plunged to $134, down nearly a quarter from last month's high of $176, and 40% below the post-IPO peak. The trigger is the same as the AI narrative mentioned earlier: the market is starting to question the returns on AI infrastructure spending. SpaceX's AI business capital expenditure reached $16.4 billion, more than the combined spending on aerospace and networking. Musk himself warned that over 200 new cloud service companies might face funding chain breaks. There's another point worth noting. The 15th Starship test flight is targeted for November 12, aiming to attempt for the first time to catch both the booster and the spacecraft simultaneously with the launch tower. If successful, it would be the first full recovery of an orbital-class rocket; Musk said the odds are "about 50-50 in favor." If this works, Starlink's network deployment costs could be further reduced, extending the story. So SpaceX is currently pulled in two directions: AI is making money fast, but spending even faster; Starship technology is a real breakthrough.Friday night at 21:30, the US October nonfarm payrolls will be revealed
The market expects an increase of 65,000, a clear rebound from September's 29,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. CME's pricing for a December rate hike has already reached 72% to 75%
In the past 24 hours, $BTC long positions were liquidated again by 202.7 million, accounting for 92% of total liquidations, but open interest barely moved, and the funding rate remains at a positive premium of +0.6529%, with a long-short position ratio of 65/35, still leaning bullish
A batch of longs falls, and immediately someone fills the same price level. Leverage hasn't been cleared, just changed hands and continues to hold
If employment exceeds expectations, the December rate hike will shift from "priced in" to "confirmed," putting pressure on $BTC. If the data disappoints, it may seem bullish in the short term, but those uncleared leveraged longs on the market might get pulled up by the news only to be harvested in a reversal
The fear and greed index has dropped to 26, indicating the market is in a panic state, but panic does not equal a bottom
The real signal will be whether the funding rate falls from the positive premium and whether open interest truly contracts after the data is released
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 SK Hynix just released a stunning Q3 report, but its stock price has been on a rollercoaster these past two days.
The performance is truly impressive. In Q3, revenue reached 104.6 trillion KRW, surpassing 100 trillion for the first time in history, more than tripling year-over-year; operating profit hit 83.3 trillion KRW, soaring 632% YoY, with an operating margin of 80%. HBM4 started ramping up, server DDR5 sales exploded, and high value-added products supported the profits.
More importantly, orders are locked in. The company has signed long-term agreements with 14 major clients, securing over half of its capacity through 2027 to 2028. The company itself says that customer demand is twice what they can supply, and the supply shortage situation could last until 2030. HBM4 is expected to surpass HBM3E as the main product in Q4.
But the stock price is far from stable. On November 2, it rose 3.8% to close at 1.47 million KRW, then plunged 5% the next day to 1.398 million KRW. The trigger wasn’t SK Hynix itself, but renewed concerns in the US about AI investment returns. Oracle plans to issue 20 billion in bonds for infrastructure, Anthropic announced nearly 900 billion in spending plans, and the market panicked at this cash burn pace. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashed 3.37%, and SK Hynix was hit by foreign investors selling 6.376 trillion KRW.
Another background point worth noting: Samsung is catching up quickly in HBM, narrowing the market share gap with SK Hynix from 33 percentage points in Q3 last year to 17 points in Q2 this year. SK Hynix claims demand is explosively strong, but the competitive landscape is changing.Day 62 of live trading, net value 1.14. BTC slid from 78,300 to 76,825, I reduced my long position from 60% to 30%, with a stop loss set at 75,400. Follow me, every day at 11 PM you can see this position screenshot and every stop loss order placed that day, losses included.
What really matters today isn’t BTC dropping 1.6%, but ZEC dropping 9.8%. Privacy coins are purely driven by sentiment funds this round; the retreat always leads mainstream assets by half a step. Binance processed $4.65 billion in withdrawals today and restored 28 fiat currency channels — this shows liquidity itself isn’t the problem, the issue is capital preference: it’s contracting from peripheral assets to core assets. The structure of “mainstream sideways, altcoins bleeding” is more painful than a full crash because it doesn’t give a clear signal to cut losses, it just grinds you down slowly.
On the macro side, after the NFP data release, the rate cut path is still debated. The 76,000–75,500 range is the cost-intensive zone of this round and the last line of defense for bulls. If it breaks below, I admit I’m wrong and exit; if it holds, I’ll add back to my position. Light positions don’t mean less profit, they mean you have the right to wait for the next signal instead of being forced to make decisions by the market.
At this point, do you swap altcoins for BTC to hold firm, or just clear your position and wait for 72,000?
Follow me, I disclose live trading positions and stop loss logic daily, losses included.
#OKXProphet What important data is there this week? Let's break down the tiers!
Tier 1 (Must Watch)
11/5 Thursday 20:00 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — The only major central bank this week with a complete decision package (rate + minutes + monetary policy report + Bailey press conference).
11/4 Wednesday 21:30 U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refinancing Announcement — Directly determines the supply rhythm of long-term bonds.
11/3 Tuesday U.S. Midterm Elections — The results will decide whether fiscal expansion will be hindered in the next two years.
Tier 2 (Expectation Impact)
11/5–11/6 Intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials (Harmak, Williams, Mouselam, Logan) — On 10/29, the FOMC just cut rates to 4%, and the market is looking for confirmation signals for the next step.
11/6 Friday 02:00 ECB Lagarde Speech — The Eurozone deposit rate has dropped to 2.5%, and the October services PMI fell from 6.1 to 5.3, indicating weakening sentiment.
Currently at a relatively low level, meaning the market is underpricing the volatility of these events this week — if any of the three Tier 1 events have surprises, actual volatility could be greater than expected. $ZEC
ZEC has been having a rough time recently. The current price is about $1140, down 11% in 24 hours and over 7% in a week. The direct trigger was some heavy selling on Kraken, combined with $13.7 million in long leverage being liquidated, nearly 90% of which were bullish positions.
But the decline isn't just technical; there are cracks in governance as well. The community grant pool ZCG holds about $125 million, and some large holders feel there's a lack of constraints from token holders on how this money is spent, leading some to liquidate their positions and leave. One whale who was long both spot and futures lost $5.84 million in a few days.
The real variable is November 5. The NU7 upgrade is set to activate, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling confirmation speed. Sounds good, but there's a catch: the old Sprout privacy pool will be frozen, and about 22,000 ZEC still in it will become inaccessible if not migrated before the upgrade. Also, the price has already risen nearly 120% in 90 days, so whether this good news is already priced in is a topic of market speculation.
So right now, ZEC is being pulled in two directions: the NU7 technical upgrade is genuine progress, but governance disputes and leverage liquidations have scattered short-term sentiment. The $1000 level is being closely watched by many; if it breaks, there could be another wave of forced liquidations. #الرئيس التنفيذي الجديد لشركة آبل يستقبل أول تقرير أداء لهاتف iPhone18
#AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook
Market says YES 70¢ / NO 31¢ (69% implied). Real prob is lower.
Consensus $113.4B revenue is already at TOP of Apple's own guidance ($111.7-113.8B). Need to beat their own ceiling.
Add 15% iPhone 18 Pro production cut (Nikkei), memory cost spike, FX -2.5pp.
History: 8 beats in a row, but last beat was saved by tariff refund.
Fair value: YES ~60%, not 70%. NO at 31¢ has edge into Nov 2 print. #PalantirQ3 revenue grows 96%, stock price falls instead of rising $BTC $ETH Palantir's Q3 revenue grew 96%, but the stock price fell instead of rising — this report is almost flawless, yet the market voted with its feet, which itself is the most thought-provoking signal of the week. 【How impressive is the report】 Palantir (PLTR) reported Q3 revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96% year-over-year and 20% quarter-over-quarter, with quarterly revenue surpassing $2 billion for the first time, exceeding the market expectation of about $2.18 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.44, better than the consensus estimate of $0.41. U.S. commercial revenue was $984 million, up 148% year-over-year, surpassing U.S. government revenue for the first time in history; GAAP operating margin was 47%, adjusted free cash flow was $1.216 billion, and the "40 Rule" score reached as high as 158%. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance to $8.53 billion to $8.534 billion, corresponding to about 91% growth. 【Why the stock still fell】 First, order growth sharply slowed. Q3 new contract total value (TCV) was $2.918 billion, up only 6% year-over-year, compared to 49% in Q2; U.S. commercial TCV increased only 11%, down from 153% last quarter. Revenue is surging, but orders can't keep up, causing market concerns about future momentum. Second, the Q4 guidance midpoint is about $2.65 billion, higher than Wall Street's expectation of about $2.46 billion, but quarter-over-quarter growth is about 14.6%, lower than Q3's 20%. $MU Micron is the same, with weak bullish support.
The recent strong resistance is at 890; even if there is a rebound, it will most likely be pushed down at this level.
It belongs to the storage sector along with SanDisk and Hynix, like grasshoppers on the same rope. AMD's earnings report early this morning is a major risk point. If AMD gives a conservative guidance on AI storage demand, the entire storage chain will see valuation cuts together 📉
Adding to the macro downside from the midterm elections, the market expects the Democrats to control both houses, so the sentiment in the tech and chip sectors is already weak. The storage sector currently has no positive catalysts; rebounds are weak counter-moves, so the trend favors a bearish outlook.$BTC Does this current situation feel especially familiar?
Think back to when Bitcoin surged all the way up to 80,000; the shorts were acting exactly the same. At every small rebound, they thought it was the top; when it rose a bit more, they frantically added to their shorts. Always fantasizing "it can't keep going up forever," only to be squeezed out completely, leaving nothing behind.
And now? The tables have turned, showing the exact opposite scene.
Now it's the longs who refuse to believe otherwise. When it breaks below 76,000, they call it a "solid bottom"; below 75,000, they call it a "golden pit"; and if it really drops to 70,000, they'll still eagerly catch the falling knife with red eyes. Always thinking "it can't fall any further."
Human nature never changes. In an uptrend, every bearish candle is a trap for shorts; in a downtrend, every bullish candle is a trap for longs. Retail investors always try to guess the bottom, while the big players keep smashing the market in the direction of the trend.
Look at my position here, a short opened at 83,436, now the mark price has dropped straight to 76,746.
Look at the order book depth in the top right corner; at 76,742.5 there's a massive sell wall of 22.98 BTC. This is like Mount Tai pressing down! Do the bulls really think they can eat through this wall with just the small change from retail investors? That's a pipe dream. Anyone who dares to show their head gets slammed back into the abyss by big orders instantly.
The big trend is down, don't try to guess the bottom, the bottom will form naturally—let your profits keep flying. Those still fantasizing about "it can't fall anymore, time to bottom fish" will sooner or later be lining up on the rooftop.
$ZEC
$ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ "Only looking at the number of accounts, not the size of positions" — what I care about most is this metric, not how lively the numbers are. OKEx Futures data shows that the $BTC long-short ratio rose from 2.20 24 hours ago to 2.77, with data updated hourly. I'm still catching up on quantitative analysis, but I have a habit: first see what the indicator actually measures, then decide what authority to give it.🤖
If I were to write a strategy, I would set a rule: if the long-short ratio rises, mark it as "account direction leaning more long," but do not automatically generate bullish or bearish signals. My judgment is that it’s better suited as a sentiment tag; using it alone to judge capital strength is somewhat overstepping.
The advantage of this rule is that it avoids an extra step of speculation. A numerical advantage in accounts does not equal a position size advantage, so you can’t directly conclude that long capital is stronger. The loophole is also very specific: a rising ratio could mean more long accounts or fewer short accounts; just looking at the result, I can’t even tell which side is changing. This is a possibility in the metric, not a statement that it has already happened.
So I’ll first put it in the observation column and won’t rush to turn it into a trigger. If you were to write this condition yourself, would you require supplementing the changes in long and short accounts separately, or position size data, before allowing it to participate in directional judgment?"[Institutions and central banks simultaneously bought 211 tons and 321 tons, the long-term gold buying has not yet exited]
In Q3, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of 211 tons, behind the historic high holding of 4,256 tons, there was also a net purchase of 321 tons by various central banks. Both types of funds increased their positions simultaneously, indicating that institutional demand for gold $XAU allocation remains very strong. Especially, central bank gold purchases increased by 42% year-on-year, with China and Poland as the main buyers, accumulating 675 tons of gold purchases this year, already exceeding the same period last year.
Gold currently faces a clear contradiction: institutions are buying, but the price has dropped about 29% from the January high of $5,595 to around $3,910 now. Rising oil prices have pushed up inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have cooled, the US dollar and US Treasury yields have strengthened, and short-term funds are simply unwilling to ignore the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Additionally, in Q3, demand for gold bars and coins fell 19% year-on-year, jewelry consumption dropped 17%, showing that ordinary investors and physical consumption are clearly lagging behind institutional buying. My judgment is that the long-term allocation logic for gold remains bullish, with continuous central bank gold purchases providing underlying support, but it is not yet time to chase the rally in the short term. Institutions are accumulating chips while the market is still digesting interest rate pressure; this divergence will be the key to the upcoming gold market trend.#PalantirQ3 revenue grew 96%, but the stock price fell instead of rising
Palantir's earnings exploded but got hit, AI money is quietly changing pockets
After watching PLTR after-hours last night, my first reaction was the same as many others: these numbers would boost anyone, but it didn’t rise.
Q3 revenue was 2.313 billion, up 96% year-over-year, 130 million more than expected; EPS 0.44, also exceeded expectations. The full-year guidance was directly raised above 8.53 billion, significantly higher than the market’s original 8.2 billion. The strongest statement on the call was: U.S. commercial revenue 984 million, beating the U.S. government for the first time ever, sovereign AI is pushing pilots into big deals, net retention rate reached 165%.
But the stock price didn’t acknowledge it. Closed at 178.34, after-hours dropped to around 173, down 3%. The problem is not this quarter, but TCV growth only 6%, U.S. commercial TCV +11%, the slowest since 2023. Revenue is growing faster than contracts signed, the market worries about "what will renew next quarter."
As for whether AI trading has returned — it has, but with different players. Funds are moving from crowded AI semiconductor stocks to software stocks that can deliver results, with buying after PLTR, TWLO, TEAM earnings. But PLTR’s problem is it carries both "high valuation" and "slowing contract signing" stones; money is willing to come but not chase.
My move: didn’t add before earnings, not rushing to buy on the drop. Waiting for TCV growth to be digested, to see if there’s real money buying at the 130-140 level Mainstream on-chain analysis (Santiment) defines addresses with ≥1000 BTC as BTC whales (whales) - Latest statistics: 2044 addresses with ≥1000 BTC, holding about 7.17 million BTC in total, accounting for nearly 36% of the circulating supply But! Address ≠ real independent person/institution, this is the easiest pitfall: It includes: exchange cold wallets, ETF custody addresses, platform reserve wallets, not all individual large holders. For example, an exchange may have several such whale addresses, but they actually belong to the same institution. More detailed stratification (another classification standard) - Sharks: 1000–5000 BTC - Whales: 5000–10000 BTC (narrow sense of whale) ≈100 addresses - Humpback whales (super whales): >10000 BTC, fewer than 100 addresses, including MicroStrategy, the US government, early tycoons, large custodians in this category Two key misconceptions 1. It is impossible to accurately know the real "number of whales": one person can control dozens of wallets; one wallet may also hold funds from many users (exchanges), on-chain can only count addresses, cannot distinguish the underlying entities. 2. Different platforms have different thresholds: some media are more lenient and call ≥100 BTC large holders, which increases the number to nearly 20,000 addresses, these should not be confused. Simple one-sentence summary According to the most commonly used standard in the circle 1 My first reaction wasn’t "computing power is about to take off again," but rather feeling concerned for the cloud providers. This kind of news is easily seen as a general positive for infrastructure, but what I’m more interested in is: will major clients gradually become competitors?
According to the updated prospectus this time, Anthropic’s revenue in Q3 was $16.96 billion. While signing long-term agreements with Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, it is also directly purchasing chips, participating in data center construction, and even seeking power and facilities from cryptocurrency mining companies.
Thinking about it the other way around, I judge this as a warning for the bargaining power of cloud providers. One reason is that when clients get involved in construction themselves, they have more options beyond cloud services; another reason is that if this path succeeds, cloud providers may gradually shift from being providers of full-service packages to suppliers selected by clients on demand. This is my speculation and does not mean it has already happened.
Do you think Anthropic is supplementing computing power or weakening its dependence on cloud providers? Opposing views are welcome for debate.Sony's Q2 report will be most useful for showing whether recurring digital revenues can carry weight across both PlayStation and music. Software, subscriptions, streaming and licensing each reward engagement, but they do not move in lockstep.
I will be watching for the balance between those lines, not simply their growth. The release may clarify how diversified Sony's consumer ecosystem really is.
#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic 🔥Don't be tempted by the screen full of green bars; looking only at a few hours of K-line can easily mislead you into thinking a major rebound has started. Extend the timeframe to a month, and the dog trader's chain of traps has long been set.
$BTC short-term four-hour chart shows spot and futures contracts flowing in simultaneously, making the market look hot. But on a 30-day scale, futures have a net outflow of 10.1 billion, and spot has lost nearly 1.8 billion. Short-term funds are hyping the market themselves, while big capital has quietly withdrawn. Jumping in now to chase longs means catching the chips the main force is distributing.
$ETH's scheme is even more obvious: 24-hour futures inflow of 135 million creates a false V-shaped reversal illusion. Over 30 days, futures outflow 9.4 billion and spot loses 2.8 billion. Heavy selling pressure above means this rally is essentially paving the way for unloading, full of traps to lure buyers—don't get caught up.
Only $SOL shows a different signal: although short-term futures are being dumped, spot has continuous net inflows from 12 hours to 30 days, accumulating over 36 million in 30 days. Large holders are slowly accumulating at the bottom. Unfortunately, with weak overall market sentiment, it's hard to see an independent trend in the short term; patience is required.
In short: short-term green is bait; the 30-day capital flow is the trump card. Big money is strategically retreating; retail investors shouldn't rush in as cannon fodder. For now, watch more and act less, protect your principal.
With long-term funds continuously bleeding, will you just lie flat and play dead, or use the rebound to reduce your position?
#NonFarmPayrollsIncoming, will December rate hikes change?One address has accumulated a loss of 38.19 million USD, then completely closed out its position.
The on-chain action is very straightforward: 0x1f25...f925 reduced its BTC short position by 7.66 million USD, fully closed the position at an average price of 76,804 USD, and after closing, the account no longer holds any BTC position. This is not a halving, not a portfolio adjustment, but a full liquidation.
What’s most worth noting here is not the 38.19 million figure, but the gap between 7.66 million and 38.19 million. This closed position was only 7.66 million USD, but the account’s cumulative loss is 38.19 million. In other words, this short position is not the entire source of the loss; there were other drains before. After losing 38.19 million, the final choice was to recognize the remaining 7.66 million all at once and exit.
The average price of 76,804 USD is both the exit price and the market price at which this batch of shorts was absorbed. Shorts actively exit not because they suddenly turn bullish, but because the cost of continuing to hold has exceeded what they can bear.
So this closing is more like a stop loss rather than a judgment call.
What’s interesting next is that this address no longer holds any BTC position. It no longer has any directional exposure; price rises or falls no longer concern it. Meanwhile, the market has just absorbed a 7.66 million USD short squeeze at this price level.
The real question is not how much he lost, but how many others like him are still holding on.$ARB dropped 5.4% today, with Coinglass reporting around 0.152. It's been hot this week because the Arbitrum Security Council did something chilling.
On October 30, the council, with a 9/12 multisig, temporarily changed the Inbox contract on Ethereum, impersonated the Binance hacker's address, and transferred 8,425 ETH and 74.56 million ARB, about $30 million, without touching private keys, then reverted the contract back to its original state. The funds are locked in a frozen address and can only be moved by a DAO vote. KelpDAO did a similar ETH move during its April hack. The problem is there are no on-chain rules limiting which addresses they can target.
In September, thanks to Robinhood Chain $HOOD, fees surged, pushing ARB to 0.22. It rose 86% over 90 days but gave back 24% in 30 days, with a net spot outflow of $139 million over 30 days. Contract trading volume hit 160 million in one day, while spot was only 20 million, with holdings at 198 million, accounting for 19% of market cap. Funding rate is 0.01%, OKX long-short ratio is 1.93, with 600,000 liquidations in one day, almost all longs.
The frozen 74.56 million ARB was a looming sell pressure, comparable to the 92.65 million tokens unlocking on November 16. Bulls betting on controversy don't hurt Robinhood Chain's revenue; fees remain stable, and the 0.13 dip in September found buyers. What could really break it is if exchanges or whales withdraw assets from Arbitrum due to this impersonation; no one will pick up the tokens unlocking on the 16th.Before S&P adjusted Meta's credit outlook, warning signals had already appeared in the credit market.
On October 22, Meta's five-year credit default swap rose to a record high at the time, about 114.79 basis points. This indicator roughly reflects the cost investors pay for protection against debt default risk. This only refers to the change at that time and should not be taken as today's latest quote.
What I find noteworthy is the timing: investors' concerns about AI spending and future funding needs were already priced in before the rating outlook adjustment.
Of course, rising protection costs do not mean the company will default immediately. The credit market is also influenced by liquidity, trading demand, and overall risk appetite. But it reminds shareholders that creditors have started to price expansion plans more seriously.
Stock investors can expect a business boom in a few years, while creditors will repeatedly calculate payment, financing, and debt repayment arrangements. For the same company, the two types of capital worry about different key points.
I am still willing to see how Meta turns AI investment into business results, but I will no longer focus solely on advertising revenue and user growth. If future financing becomes more expensive, the costs required for expansion may also increase.
As this round of AI competition progresses, beyond technology launches, the bond and credit markets are equally worth watching. How long funds are willing to support and how much return they require are influencing how fast expansion can proceed.
#Meta信用展望转负，AI投资信用风险受关注 TRON has a strange position. The network operates as a payment rail for the dollar: about $94.37 billion in stablecoins, 97.85% of which are USDT (DefiLlama, November 2, 2026). And the $TRX token is priced around $0.32 with a market cap of $30.03 billion. There are roughly three times more stablecoins on the network than the token itself is worth. Hence the main question: how much of this activity goes to the TRX holder? The answer is not obvious. Fees are burned, but issuance continues, and there is no direct income distribution to holders. For context: on October 29, 2026, there was a#US Midterm Elections Are Approaching, Which Results Are Worth Watching?
Today is the US midterm election, and the results will directly determine the survival line of the Bitcoin and Ethereum we hold next year. Don’t just focus on the market; keeping an eye on congressional seats is the key.
Big players in the circle really went all out this time, donating $233 million in political contributions in one go. Simply put, they want to get a few crypto-friendly lawmakers into Congress.
This actually has a bigger impact on ETH than BTC. What ETH fears most now is regulatory crackdowns. If legislation can clearly define it as not a security, those off-exchange institutional funds would have already rushed in.
However, current polls show the Democrats are still leading in key districts. I’m quite worried they will hold onto their seats because the current regulators have always been unfriendly to us, frequently issuing subpoenas, which really messes with people’s mindset.
In the last bear market, I held on stubbornly without understanding the tightening regulatory signals and ended up losing badly. This time I’ve learned my lesson and am keeping my positions light.
If the Republicans can take key seats, Bitcoin has a good chance to surge to new highs by the end of the year; if it ends in a stalemate, we should just watch quietly and not rush in recklessly. $HYPE Paradigm directly unlocked $224 million worth of $HYPE staking in two days.
Retail investors are still trying to bottom-fish and find support, while a16z is already rushing to move hundreds of thousands of chips to the market makers.
A big wave of unlocks is queued up to dump soon.
Entering and holding firm at this time is purely acting as a liquidity ATM for the big holders cashing out.
The buying power has long been overdrawn; the bulls simply can't hold at this level.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇$MRVL just took a quick bite to eat, then came across this post by a cultivation master and the MRVL K-line chart, and I almost sprayed my screen with my noodle soup. This metaphor is on par with "Ma Huateng wanting to pay salaries with Q coins"—a god-level analogy, hitting the nail on the head!
【Hardcore review of this "getting something for nothing" move】:
Look at the daily chart in image 2, dropping straight from 278 to 171, a nearly 40% decline! All moving averages are in a bearish alignment, MACD dead cross deep in the water zone. This drop is totally justified.
Marvell, with a market cap of 200 billion, acquired the 100 billion old bread (Lumentum) without paying cash, instead playing a crazy stock issuance game of "4.5 shares for 1 share." This is akin to paying salaries with Q coins—the essence is using one’s "virtual chips" during a high valuation period to exchange for solid core assets.
The market voted with its feet, showing capital what "faith collapse" means. You exchange paper for real assets, so everyone can only smash the market to crush your "paper" back to its true form. The meme in the picture saying "hold for 10,000 years and see" is a perfect piece of dark humor.
【My advice】:
Using the most virtual stocks to buy the hardest assets ends with the harshest smash. Before elections, all funds are running away; never catch a falling knife in targets with deteriorating fundamentals and valuation restructuring. Let this "Q coin-style" acquisition’s bitter fruit be digested slowly by itself.People tend to mistake the ability to quote prices on weekends as a risk control upgrade, but I am actually a bit cautious: having an additional price signal doesn't necessarily mean more stability.
Chainlink states that Aave Horizon uses perpetual contracts to provide weekend pricing for stock collateral. Thinking about it the other way, I don't consider it a safety net: first, I speculate that if contract noise enters the valuation, it could amplify collateral pressure; second, the quotes don't guarantee that there will be someone to take the seized assets. I am more interested in how it filters noise rather than just whether the quotes are online.Still relying on institutional accumulation news to justify going long?
BTC is currently at 76827.6, with MA20 at 80468.8; if the resistance isn't broken, all the positive news could just be a facade. Strategy spent 65.5 million to add 811 BTC, but repurchased preferred shares at a cost of 208 million.
Each treasury has completely different approaches. Metaplanet is increasing its position in BTC, BitMine is aggressively acquiring 8573 ETH, bringing its holdings to 6.06 million.
Institutions building positions in batches doesn't mean they'll pump the price immediately.
ETH has no independent trend. When BTC drops sharply, ETH falls even harder; when the market recovers, it can only follow along to gain.
Many only see accumulation but overlook the underlying debt and financing costs. Companies have their own cycles; they aren't here just to support retail investors.
The previous low at 74896 still hangs below. If the positive factors can't hold, the decline won't be gentle. $BTC $ETH #Strategy回购规模超购币三倍，财库策略转向？ Does $OP's multi-chain security anxiety weaken the expansion efficiency of the OP Stack? Sharing the tech stack can reduce deployment costs, but the security responsibilities and liquidity between different chains still need to be clarified. If new deployments bring new users, fees, and developers, the collaborative value of the OP ecosystem is enhanced. The opposing view is that an increase in the number of chains causes asset fragmentation; if new chains rely mainly on subsidies and users do not stay, expansion actually increases maintenance costs. Evaluating the activity and cross-chain settlement quality of each chain is necessary; the number of deployments cannot be equated with network revenue. When further confirming, I will separate the impact of news, capital flow, and real usage for examination; only if at least two of these remain aligned across multiple periods will I adjust the mid-term judgment. If only short-term price or a single indicator changes, I will remain cautious and wait for subsequent data. #US Midterm Elections Are Approaching, Which Results Are Worth Watching?
Tonight Americans vote not for a person, but for who will hold power for the next two years.
Today is November 3rd. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, 35 of the 100 Senate seats are contested, and 36 states are electing governors. Before the election, Republicans hold 218 seats in the House, just a majority, Democrats have 214 seats; in the Senate, Republicans have 53 seats, Democrats plus allied independents have 47 seats.
The most important to watch is the House of Representatives. Democrats need a net gain of just 3 seats to reach 218 seats. Polls and ratings lean more seats toward Democrats. The Senate requires a net gain of 4 seats to achieve a majority, which is much more difficult, so the possibility of a House flip is greater than the Senate.
For the market, the key is not who wins a slogan, but whether Congress is divided or unified. If Democrats take the House, it will be harder to advance legislation in the president’s second term, policy uncertainty will rise first, and capital often waits and watches, setting direction after results are certified and the new Congress is sworn in.
Early voting has already set records. As of the morning of November 2nd, about 54.8 million votes have been cast by mail and early in-person voting, exceeding about 45.9 million in 2022. The Cook Political Report’s October 23rd rating lists 219 seats leaning Democratic, 198 leaning Republican, and 17 toss-ups. The average congressional vote poll shows Democrats leading by 8.9 percentage points.
The market does not fear the results, only the wait without results.$ZHIPU
A while ago, I said the AI sector hadn't peaked yet. Today, the Zhipu token dropped 8.1% in 24 hours, trading at 56.69, just over one point above the daily low of 55.66. My face hurts a bit.
On the same day, Wall Street was arguing among itself. On one side, asset management giants warned that AI is a bubble; on the other, investment bank executives said spending in this area could reach $15 trillion over the next decade, and the Blackstone president also said computing power demand far exceeds supply.
After listening to both sides, I don't really believe either. They're debating something that will only have answers ten years from now; what I care about is tonight's market.
The Zhipu contract market is too small, with open interest only $3.14 million, fee settlement at -0.046%, shorts paying, yet the premium is still positive at 0.44%. I don't believe this market reflects smart money; a few hundred contracts can move the price by two or three points.
An 8% drop doesn't mean institutions are exiting, and a rebound doesn't mean they're coming back.
This month, I've changed my stance on this sector so much that I'm annoyed with myself. I'll just keep quiet and watch the market. I'll talk about direction again when open interest reaches tens of millions of dollars.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Bitcoin is trading near $76,813, and the market cannot agree on what that number means. Galaxy reads the move back above the 50-week moving average as evidence that the bottom is in. Rekt sees the same chart and reaches the opposite conclusion: resistance at $78,500 has held, the downtrend remains valid, and the next level below is $76,000. Two credible desks, one price, two irreconcilable verdicts. That divergence is the real story, because it tells you positioning is still unresolved rather th$SNDK
Nasdaq will switch to 23-hour trading starting December 6. This news was buried among a bunch of AI headlines today; I had to read it twice.
The SNDK token is currently priced at 1091.2, down from 1178.7 24 hours ago, a 7.4% drop, and only about $20 above today's low of 1069.2. On the same day, SK Hynix fell 5.3% in 24 hours, while SK Group's Chey Tae-won is proposing that South Korea and Japan collaborate on AI and semiconductors.
The news is positive, but the market is cold. At times like this, I usually ignore the news and watch the market.
Token holdings are at $123 million, down from $137 million at midnight, a decrease, but no one is really dumping. The fee rate is still at +0.015%, so longs are still paying. The problem isn't the drop, it's that no one wants to take the other side.
Once Nasdaq truly switches to 23-hour trading, the only selling point for token stocks—that "I can still trade after US stock market close"—will fade. People buying this now are betting on the time difference, not the company.
I'm done with this direction. When the day comes, we'll see whose positions remain.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The ChiNext Index hit a new low, but the historical pattern hasn't been broken yet. Currently, the main decline in the market is still in semiconductor and technology-related stocks, while the main gains are in the old leading stocks. For example, Kweichow Moutai has risen up to 28% from its low at the end of June. Mindray Medical has risen up to 44%, which was the main theme of the last bull market, having fallen for 5 years and recently started to perform.
If you want to bottom-fish, I don't recommend technology-related stocks; prioritize indices first, then old leading stocks.
The index rebound might be driven by the old leading stocks, so if you pick the wrong sector, you could still lose money even if the index rises.
The polarization in the A-share market is very severe; a 10% loss requires a forced stop-loss. Although this often results in mistakes, it definitely prevents major losses.
Regarding gold, based on previous performance around midterm elections, the gold market is expected to start after the midterm elections, which is on November 3rd Eastern Time, 13 hours later than our time. From a technical perspective, gold is also oversold, but after the drop, it hasn't risen in the morning, indicating the central bank hasn't intervened. The central bank usually acts in the morning. However, starting to dollar-cost average at this position likely won't lose money before the end of the year.There's something quite divisive: Nvidia's B300 chip rents for $7.56 an hour, about 56% more expensive than at the start of the year. With such high demand, companies involved should be snapped up, right? Yet the hottest trade in the market is buying their decline.
CoreWeave's stock price is $55, and the hottest options are puts expiring in 2028 with a strike price of $35. The cost of default insurance for Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta has also hit its highest level since 2021. $BTC is just watching from the sidelines, barely moving.
So is computing power just too expensive, or is everyone afraid it won't be worth this price in the future? The risk of this AI wave was first priced not in stock prices, but in bond insurance.
The cost of debt default protection for Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle has risen to the highest level since 2021. Investors and tech companies themselves are buying options and CDS, hedging against debt default and computing power depreciation.
Look at a specific trade. CoreWeave's hottest option is a put option expiring in 2028 with a strike price of $35, while its stock price is about $55. The strike price is twenty dollars below the current price, which is not short-term protection but insurance bought for two years later.
The contradiction lies on the other side: Nvidia's B300 rental price has risen about 56% this year to $7.56 per hour. Computing power prices are still rising, indicating demand hasn't collapsed; but capital is buying downside protection, indicating concern not about no business now, but about prices dropping after high-priced contracts expire.
Jump Trading has even set up a computing power trading department to help clients hedge against computing power depreciation. With derivatives on computing power, it becomes a commodity that can be priced bidirectionally. $BTC and $ETH are priced by liquidity and are actually more stable than AI in the short term.
The signal is not that AI is over, but that valuations are constrained by debt costs: a 56% rent increase signals demand, while record-high default insurance signals financing; both appearing simultaneously means expansion relies on more expensive money. Once computing power can be shorted, the pricing logic of coins like $TAO will inevitably change.