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$BTC is rising.
Open interest is increasing.
Funding rates are going up.
But the Coinbase premium is decreasing.
The rally is driven by perpetual contracts, accompanied by weak spot demand.$LPT Livepeer is about to release version 2.0 of its whitepaper. Simply put, the project is pivoting from just ordinary video transcoding to building a media compute network for AI agents, supporting AI-generated video, editing, rendering, and related tasks.
The biggest change this time is the tokenomics, introducing the BME mint-and-burn model. Previously, regardless of business activity, LPT was continuously minted without any burning, causing constant dilution. The new version plans to use network service fees to buy back LPT and then burn it. Also, inflation rewards will no longer be distributed based on who stakes the most; only nodes that actually work and generate business volume will receive rewards, eliminating the scenario where nodes just stake without working but still get rewards. If the business performs well later, the burn volume could exceed new token issuance, potentially leading to deflation.
Worth looking forward to! I suspect this is a pullback shakeout. If you’re sure the 🐮 market has arrived, just push straight from this position.
$LPT $BTC Through repeated liquidations, I finally understood the anti-human logic of frequent order openings and heavy high-leverage shorting of altcoins at high positions. I've always died chasing altcoins with high leverage shorts. You can't have a contrarian mindset when trading altcoins; you can only follow the trend. Find the right spot to bet once. Appropriately doing T+ trading can still preserve part of the profit. After making a profit on the day, if you still frequently open orders and can't control yourself, the gambling mentality is at work. K-line analysis is only a very minor part of the judgment method. (Holding a position wanting to escape, profit retracement also wanting to escape. How to resolve this?)Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother.
The day after tomorrow night is CPI, Thursday and Friday there are also PPI and retail data, and next Tuesday is the Federal Reserve meeting.
Wow, this week is full of major events, one after another, like passing through levels.
I think CPI is the first hurdle. If it's below 3.6%, Bitcoin will rally to 87000; if above 3.6%, it will drop to 80000.
But even if CPI passes, there are still PPI, retail, and the Fed ahead.
Brothers, don't hold heavy positions this week, data comes one by one, if you bet wrong on one, it's over.
I've seen too many people go all in before CPI, and when the data comes out the direction reverses, they get liquidated immediately.
Data-driven markets are like a meat grinder, watching the show is better than getting involved.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? $BTC $ETH $ZEC $CORE
When everyone is trapped at a high price, continuously taking over positions and lowering their average cost, this exactly plays into another one of their schemes.
Second: Lure the guest into the trap
Core essence: Pre-establish a profit system to attract investors to actively enter the market. Once funds enter, they get trapped in the scheme, stuck in a dilemma (buying, staking and locking tokens, making it difficult to exit smoothly later).
Corresponding performance of CORE:
1. The bait is the Dual Staking mechanism: simply staking BTC yields very low returns. To get a high APY, you must additionally purchase CORE to stake together. In other words, to earn high returns, you must actively buy CORE tokens. This is the bait to "lure the guest into the trap."
2. Once users choose long-term staking and lock their tokens in contracts, liquidity is frozen, the market starts to weaken, and staked chips cannot be immediately dumped to escape; after many retail investors are locked, market liquidity thins further. When the market declines, spot holders wanting to cut losses and exit face poor liquidity, insufficient depth, and discounted escapes.
3. After subsequent market drops, holders face a dilemma: cutting losses means confirming huge losses; not cutting losses means continuing to hold/stake and waiting for narrative recovery, passively trapped in this scheme, stuck in a dilemma, perfectly fitting the characteristic of being hard to escape after "entering the trap." One must admire the wisdom of the project team and developers!$ZEC doesn't seem to be over yet
After surging to $1,689, ZEC sharply dropped back to around $1,200. Now it is recovering to about $1,300, up roughly 5% in 24 hours
Here are the points I'm watching:
• $1,260–$1,220 — support levels that need to hold
• $1,350–$1,395 — resistance levels that need to be reclaimed
• $1,450 — next upside zone if momentum strengthens
The key is not how fast ZEC rose before, but whether buyers can turn this rebound into a new trend
Reclaiming resistance levels will strengthen the bullish outlook Yesterday's strength needs to be re-evaluated today
$STRK I will first lower the short-term expectations.
It was still around 0.121 in the early morning, then dropped back to around 0.102 in the afternoon, an actual retracement of about 16%; still up about 95% in the past week.
The weekly gain is impressive, but it doesn't offset the retracement for those who bought in the early morning.
This is also the hardest part to handle after a sharp rise: the phase trend is still strong, but the recent entry experience may have already worsened.
I'm now more concerned about whether it can stop the pullback.
If the subsequent rebounds keep getting pushed back, we can't expect the same speed of increase as yesterday. Wait for confirmation first, don't rush to interpret this drop as a better buying opportunity.
$ZEC This rebound still has strength, but it has retreated a bit in the afternoon.
From around 1328 at 2:30 PM to about 1309, a drop of about 1.4%; still up about 7.9% in 24 hours.
This small pullback is not enough to deny the rebound for now.
Next, we need to see if it can resume advancing after the pullback; don't use the entire day's gain to explain the subsequent strength or weakness.
$BICO I am still observing it later.
Down about 12.3% in the past week, price around 0.01848 in the afternoon, no obvious short-term improvement yet.
What is needed here is new upward performance; simply moving sideways is not enough.
If it still can't keep up when the market warms up, the waiting time will lengthen and it won't automatically increase its appeal. On the eve of Data Week, the market is playing out a dual game of inflation expectations and leverage liquidation.
This Wednesday and Thursday, the US September CPI and PPI will be released sequentially. Institutions generally predict an overall rise in inflation readings, driven by continuously rising gasoline prices, but the core CPI is expected to continue to decline. This split pattern of headline inflation rising while core inflation cools is the key difficulty in trading this data. If only energy pushes up the overall CPI, the market will treat it as a short-term disturbance; once core inflation unexpectedly rebounds, rate cut expectations will be directly pressured.
Looking at the leverage on the board. $BTC's previous sharp drop has already cleared over 1.18 billion long leverage, making the market much cleaner. Liquidation data shows that long positions are concentrated around 80200-80300 on the downside; breaking below 78954 will trigger 1.2 billion long liquidations; breaking above 86682 will trigger about 1.14 billion short liquidations. The downside trigger space is smaller, while the upside breakout requires a larger increase.
$ETH is in a standard tug-of-war pattern, with 2500 as the psychological long-short threshold. ETF funds continue to flow out, and the volume of long and short liquidations is almost balanced, making this structure prone to frequent whipsaws and shakeouts.
It is important to understand that the liquidation heatmap only marks the chain reactions upon reaching corresponding price levels, not guaranteed targets for the market. Although leverage has been cleaned up in a round, concentrated exposure remains. The CPI data itself is contradictory, so there is no need to heavily bet on one side in advance. Data-driven market volatility is intense; maintain defensive positions and wait for signals to land before following the trend.
#CPI and PPI releases are imminent, rate hike expectations face a test 4h failed to close above 84, now continuing to pull back to around 83. Pay attention to two minor supports at 827/821 here; not breaking 82 is the best scenario. In that case, it will continue to consolidate during the day, and in the next two days, it will most likely test the 85-86 range.
If it breaks, watch for a second test. The short positions held can be entered or exited; the purpose of the shakeout has not been achieved yet. Time is exchanged for space. PPI and CPI data will be released at 8:30 PM on the 14th
The market will be quite volatile then
$BTC is currently still fluctuating around 83,000
The resistance level above has dropped from 86,800 down to around 83,800, with a slight rebound in the past two days but not very obvious
The next drop is estimated to start with a 7
Although BTC's gains are not obvious, some altcoins are very strong today, $W is dominating the gainers list with an increase of up to 50%. I originally wanted to short one position but held back; with such a strong upward trend, I dare not open a position lightly, as the funding fees would be substantial
$CAP has experienced several sharp drops and surges, and now the price is fixed around 0.092. 0.1 is a strong resistance; I don't think there is much room for further increase. I opened a short at 0.085; although currently down a few points, I'm not in a hurry. I can hold until its unlock next year, which suits my long-term strategy better Don't take this small rebound too seriously.
BTC bounced from 82982 to 84348 and then fell back, now hovering around 83400, with resistance at 83519 tested three times but not broken.
The 24-hour volatility is only 1.7%, this is not the start of a trend, it's the calm before a market shift.
CPI data is imminent, big money is waiting for direction, going all in now is just gambling on size.
My lesson from losing 200,000 U: don't go heavy before the data, at most try a small position of 5000 U, always set stop loss, never hold through losses.
Wait for the CPI release and the direction to emerge before following, itching to trade now is just giving away money.
$BTC
#Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure? $ #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed Here it comes! Bitcoin is strongly rebounding, rising 4000 points in 2 days. Has a new market trend started? How to operate now? Take a quick look. $BTC
1. Undoubtedly, Bitcoin is currently in a rebound phase. It previously dropped 7000 points and is now recovering the losses. So a rebound is possible, but to say the market has completely reversed into a bull run, I think it may still take more time. So the question is, how to operate now?
2. The answer: trade the swings! The price is very likely re-entering a new consolidation range, so we can observe more. But based on current data, Bitcoin’s support level is around 80,500, and resistance is likely around 84,300. So when the price reaches 80,500, go aggressively long, and near 84,300 you can short a small position.
3. As shown in the chart, Shu Qin advised shorting at 84,000-84,300 yesterday. So far, it has pulled back twice, and you can take profits on dips. Although the gains aren’t huge, Bitcoin’s recent volatility has been low, so these returns are already good. Just trade the swings back and forth.
4. If you prefer stability, you can avoid shorting and only buy on dips. Because the price will rise in the long term, even if you get temporarily stuck, it will recover later. Shorting carries more risk. You can also consider selling your spot holdings at resistance and buying back on dips, which is safer. #RussiaUkraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation $ARX USDT，20倍空，139.16%浮盈。0.3133，等的就是“高位滞涨”瞬间。多头虚拉，0.2915一枪命中破位。
最肥肉已吃。低位震荡，不加仓不恋战。策略：止损上移，底仓看戏。1分钟级别大单抄底或承接变弱，立刻落袋。狙击手不贪连发，一击即退，保住利润等下一个猎物。$ETH $BTC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC short positions successfully realized, the trend is unstoppable.
When the market is overwhelmingly optimistic and everyone insists on being bullish, there is a high probability of a decline.
Previously publicly predicted, the rebound is just a correction, not a reversal; the 84000-84500 resistance zone is a high shorting area, and the market has fallen as expected.
A double top pressure formed on the 15-minute chart, MACD green bars continue to expand, releasing bearish momentum.
Trading is often contrarian thinking; the sentiment when the public is unanimously bullish is often the end of a bull trap. Following the major cycle trend and positioning in advance naturally leads to strategy fulfillment.
Position management and strict stop-loss are always the bottom line, not being misled by short-term optimistic bullish candles. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation $CORE
Why do so many people lose 90%-99% of their assets in CORE? One reason is that the project team is overly calculating, possessing extraordinary intelligence, and they first employed the strategy of deception!
First, deception
Analyzing this deception, the yin is inside the yang, not opposite the yang, the sun, the moon.
The general meaning is: using a grand public narrative to cover up the underlying selling pressure, with positive news on the surface, while the real risks are hidden in details that people easily overlook.
Corresponding to CORE's performance:
1. The core story promoted externally: benchmarking Bitcoin, BTCFi track, total supply capped at 2.1 billion, 81-year long cycle release, high staking yields like Bitcoin, ecosystem flywheel, revenue buybacks, packaged as the orthodox infrastructure of the Bitcoin ecosystem, giving investors the impression of a "long-term value infrastructure project"—this is the yang side, the promotion everyone sees at first glance.
2. The "yin side" hidden beneath the surface: large batch unlocks in portions, gradual release of early investors'/team shares; the promoted ecosystem flywheel and buyback plan progress falling short of expectations; staking lock-up mechanisms temporarily locking volume to reduce circulation, creating an illusion of scarce supply in the market; narrative promotion priority always exceeding product rollout progress.
3. Psychological effect: investors are attracted by the grand BTCFi narrative, focusing on the track's prospects, gradually downplaying the core hidden risks of unlock sell pressure and slow ecosystem rollout, which is the "common things are not doubted" mindset. When large unlocks happen and prices come under pressure and fall, they suddenly realize the risks were already lurking! $W USDT，20倍做空斩获145.81%。从0.029271到0.027137，完美捕捉“高位震荡→假突破→破位暴跌”。前期走势看似坚挺，实则是多头最后的陷阱，动能衰竭后空头接管，尾盘跳水极其丝滑。
现在0.027137低位，浮盈近1.5倍。高位阴跌破位后，下方空间打开，但短线跌幅大，震荡回抽难免。
策略清晰：底仓让利润跑，防守线钉死。不贪最低点，承接变强直接落袋。山寨趋势向下时，保住实盈才是王道，节奏不能乱。$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 October 12th–October 18th Global Macro Guidance: Inflation Reassessment! CPI Determines December Rate Hike, Energy and Bond Markets Compete for Global Pricing Power, Tech Stocks Q3 Earnings Season Kicks Off! Last Week's Macro Core: After the Fed paused rate hikes, why can't long-term bond yields come down!? This Week's Macro Core: If CPI rebounds again, is the high long-term interest rate an "early warning"? Or is it already overpriced?! This Week's Macro Logic Chain: Middle East energy risks remain high + possibility of Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire → Brent / Diesel repricing → September CPI + PPI verify inflation and retail data verification → October pause or surprise rate hike / December rate hike decision → US 2Y reprices Fed policy → US 10Y/30Y verify long-term inflation, fiscal and term premium → Dollar + Gold + US stock AI + BTC pricing adjustment → Global liquidity redistribution Focus points: energy inflation, endogenous inflation, long-term interest rates, whether the three will resonate to suppress risk markets! #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, rate hike expectations face a test Main theme: CPI repricing becomes this week's rate hike referee! Last week, Waller provided a relatively clear Fed policy framework—future rate hikes may still be needed, but there is no need for consecutive hikes at every meeting! This led the market to start expecting a pause in rate hikes in October and a continuation in December. So far, the probability of a rate hike in October is 19.4%, and the probability of a rate hike in December has entered 70% $BTC is caught between two major liquidations, gearing up for a big short-term swing✨
Looking at the latest liquidation heatmap, BTC is now stuck between two liquidity-dense zones, with both long and short leverages well positioned. Below at 83000, there is a large concentration of long positions, while above at 84700, there is a pile of short liquidation orders. The current price is hovering around 83000, very close to the lower liquidation zone.
This means that a breakout in either direction is likely to trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, amplifying market volatility. The key focus now is to see if the 83000 support can hold.
If it breaks below this level, concentrated long liquidations will bring a wave of selling pressure; if spot buyers step in to defend the support and push upwards, it will likely sweep the short liquidity near 84700.
A reminder: liquidation zones are just potential leverage concentration areas and do not guarantee the price will reach them. 83000 is the current main battleground where longs and shorts are fiercely contesting. Everyone should manage positions lightly and avoid heavy bets on one-sided moves.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations face a test TSMC's earnings report this Thursday, honestly, is more worth watching than many press conferences. Why? Because it basically reveals whether this AI market surge is just hype or real money. The market is currently most concerned about one thing: whether those big clients, like Nvidia and AMD, have continued to increase their orders. If they have, it means demand is still there, and the AI sector can keep dancing; if not, or if they cut orders, then short-term sentiment will definitely cool off.
Another indicator to watch is TSMC's guidance on advanced process capacity. If they say they will continue expanding production, then a bunch of upstream and downstream companies can benefit; if they are conservative, then everyone will have to recalculate. Anyway, don’t schedule anything else Thursday night, brew a cup of tea, and wait for the numbers. Whether it’s a mule or a horse, it will be clear at a glance then.
#CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are in the October 15 earnings report? #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed $TSM $BNB burn is approaching, on-chain activity is high, but the market hasn't responded yet.
The 37th quarterly burn is expected to take place in mid to late October. The last burn was about 1.62 million tokens, valued at $932 million, and the market is trading ahead of this event.
Binance's October reserve proof shows a BNB reserve ratio of 100.47%, with a net user balance of about 43.04 million tokens and a wallet balance of about 43.24 million tokens, indicating no trust issues.
BSC's single-day Gas usage exceeded 5 trillion, setting a new record, with 24 million swaps accounting for 77% of the entire network. The tokenized stock market cap rose to $1.21 billion, a 4.8-fold increase since April, becoming the first chain to surpass $1 billion.
However, the price hasn't kept up. BNB is currently around $755, up only 0.3% in 24 hours, stuck at the lower edge of the $746-$807 consolidation range.
A certain large whale is suspected of liquidating BNB and depositing 2,380 tokens to Binance, accumulating a loss of $1.536 million, indicating short-term bearish sentiment.
The 50-day moving average is around $720, the 200-day moving average around $692; the bullish moving average structure remains intact, but if the price breaks below the $746 support, the next level to watch is $720.
Strategy: Do not chase the burn expectations.
BNB needs to break and hold above the $781-$792 resistance zone with volume to open space toward $807.
Currently, the $746-$807 range is oscillating; no mid-price trading.
Wait for a pullback to $746 without breaking it and a 1-hour rebound above $760 before considering a light position, with a stop loss below $735 and targets at $781 and $807.
If the price spikes near the burn date but fails to surpass $800, be cautious of profit-taking. $KGEN was listed on bithumb today, pumped and then dumped immediately. This coin used to be strongly controlled by big players. Currently, the profit-loss ratio at this position is quite good. The drop below the previous low is about 5% from now. If it gets listed on upbit in the next few days, it should take off. Contract entertainment positions can try playing it, but those who play big shouldn't mess with this kind of coin.Brothers, today let's talk about the old familiar player in the cross-chain track, Wormhole $W. Many people are confused by its massive cross-chain data and think it's the next track leader, but peeling back the surface data, the truth isn't that rosy. First, let's talk about its credentials: Wormhole is a top-tier cross-chain communication infrastructure in the crypto world, connecting more than 30 public chains, heavily tied to the Solana ecosystem, with huge daily cross-chain transfer volumes. The institution Jump Crypto deeply endorses it. It was once hacked for $325 million, and the institution directly covered the full loss out of pocket, which is rare in the entire DeFi space and adds a layer of institutional credit buff to the project. It looks like hardcore underlying infrastructure, but the token $W is a typical case of a thriving protocol with a struggling token. The first major pain point: the protocol has huge traffic but doesn't make money. The bridge handles tens of billions in funds daily but currently charges almost no fees. Without real protocol revenue, the token lacks fundamental anchoring. Even if trading volume explodes, profits don't reach token holders; its value now relies solely on narrative and governance expectations. Second, unlocking pressure looms overhead. With a total supply of 10 billion tokens, the team and investors' shares are continuously unlocked linearly, and every unlocking window tends to cause price dumps. The historical peak was above $1.5, now it has dropped to a few cents, and countless early investors are deeply trapped. Whenever there's a rebound, there will be sell-offs from those trying to break even. Third, the industry competition is fierce. The cross-chain track is not dominated by one player; LayerZero and CCIP are taking turns to grab market share. Wormhole's advantage lies in So$ETH breaking the resistance level is what counts as a breakout; if it doesn't break, then it hasn't broken.
$ETH is currently stuck below the 4-hour resistance level.
If it can't get through, it will have to look for a lower position.
What is a resistance level:
It's not a single line, but a cluster of pending orders.
When the price rises to that point, sell orders increase, and if buyers can't hold, the price reverses.
How to judge a breakout:
You have to see a close above it, not just a brief spike.
If it spikes up and then falls back, it means sellers above haven't finished yet.
Looking downward, if the daily support doesn't hold, the weekly midline is around 2168.
This number is calculated, not guessed.
Stop-loss orders placed above the resistance level have already been swept once.
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard $ETH "As long as it's not high leverage, actually entering around here doesn't make much difference. Du Ge's philosophy is to make money from trends with low or even zero leverage. Brothers, don't interpret this from a contract perspective."
____
37 Du: Maybe I described it wrong, let me say it again. Long-term positions are not low leverage, but zero leverage. Once there is leverage, you'll get stopped out by spikes, the price will revert, and the position will be gone. When I was at 312, my Bitcoin collateral ratio was 50%, which already breached the liquidation price. Fortunately, AnYin has a no-liquidation mechanism, equivalent to 100 units. Now borrowing 50 units would cause liquidation, meaning BTC doesn't need to drop 50% to liquidate, just a 50% spike to quickly recover. This is completely possible when liquidity is poor. Can you believe it dropped more than 30% for two consecutive days?
312 quickly dropped from 10,000 to 3,000, then quickly pulled back to 6,000, your position was gone... Many industry veterans were eliminated in this wave.
312 in 2020
2022 liquidation wave
1011 epic-level liquidation
...
All of these are ruthless.
Respect the market, eliminate on-exchange leverage, and give yourself a higher margin of error in life.$BCH
BCH recovers stronger than BTC, is payment demand the reason?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 275.4—287.8 USDT, change +2.91%, trading volume about 5.14 million USDT.
Higher returns in this window indicate short-term elasticity but do not directly provide merchant acceptance or actual settlement volume. Payment use and sustained holding demand are not proportional; buyers in transactions may also just be participating in the overall market recovery.
If BTC stabilizes but BCH falls below 275.4, it reduces the explanation of independent demand; if settlement evidence improves and after reclaiming 287.8 maintains a higher low, then re-evaluate the transmission of payment value.$SNDK
1500 is the key support level on the 8-hour chart. The big picture is to wait and see, while the short-term cycle looks for an oversold rebound 📊
Long-term cycle (3-day line)
This rebound started when the 3-day MACD returned to the zero line, reaching a high of 1914;
Currently, the 3-day MACD shows potential weakening, and the major support at 1372 must hold—
If broken, the upward rebound structure on the 3-day line will be destroyed.
Mid-term cycle (4H / 8H)
Last week, the 4-hour core support at 1617 was lost again, currently pre-market at 1552;
Next to watch is the 8-hour support at 1500, which is 52 points away from the current price.
Two scenarios 🎯
✅ Hold 1500 → Short-term cycle demands an oversold rebound, targeting 1682 (recent resistance)
❌ 8-hour closing price effectively breaks below 1500 → Accelerated drop toward 1372
Trading strategy 🧭
🔸 Big picture: wait and see (be cautious with longs, wait for conditions to short)
🔸 Focus on 1500 these days
In short: 1500 is the lifeline between bulls and bears; holding it means a rebound, breaking it accelerates the drop.
Which side are you on tonight?👇Those who study finance generally play Texas Hold'em, and I'm no exception!
Suddenly I want to compare it to the crypto circle's $BTC. I wonder if anyone else feels that sometimes no matter how you trade, you make money smoothly, but other times no matter what you do, you lose money badly!
If I were to use a technical term, it would be the periods of advantage and disadvantage. I used to not believe that trading had any mysticism, but many successful traders do believe in it.
Only after going through a lot myself can I somewhat understand these traders. I just hope everyone can admit defeat when going through their own down periods, after all, trading $BTC is not a short-term thing.
Obviously, playing cards is also about pursuing long-term positive expected value!
#CPI and PPI are about to be released, and interest rate hike expectations face a test $DOGE Dogecoin's movement overnight tells a story of "waiting for a breakout"
On the 15-minute chart, the price started from the 0.08360 level, pushing up steadily to 0.08820 with small bullish candles, then did not quickly retrace but consolidated sideways around 0.0871. The volume during the rally reached 5.12 million coins, and it clearly shrank during the pullback, indicating that short-term selling pressure was not heavy, thus the sideways consolidation found support.
There are several signals on the chart. MA5, MA10, and MA20 converge around 0.0870, with the price hugging the upper edge of the moving average band, showing a temporary balance between bulls and bears. The super trend line is at 0.08785, with the intraday high touching 0.08772, just shy of flipping bullish. In the order book, the top buy order holds 320,000 coins, while the top sell order is only 21,000 coins, indicating stronger support below.
Looking at a longer timeframe, the structure is clearer. A 6.42% pullback over the past 7 days, but still a 3.15% gain over 30 days and an 18.70% gain over 90 days. This shows the short-term correction remains within the quarterly uptrend framework, and the 0.0836 low is higher than previous lows.
Going forward, watch two key levels: $DOGE breaking out with volume above 0.08785, flipping the super trend green and opening upward space; or falling below the dense moving average zone at 0.0870, which could lead to a retest around 0.0855 for re-accumulation. The sideways consolidation won't last long, and the directional choice will likely come within the next one or two candles.
#CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation
#Volatility radar: monitoring coin fluctuations Today, an old buddy in the group asked me if $ICP is about to revive. I asked him if he has flipped his account. My deepest impression of this coin isn’t its price fluctuations, but that there are always people in the group saying "take it slow, no rush," and then slowly over two years, their positions shrink to just a few dozen dollars left as an offering, watching every day hoping to break even. Today it rose about ten percent, and some people started dreaming. Something priced a bit over 3 to under 4 dollars, what’s the point of such a rise? If you want to get your principal back, don’t talk about breaking even yet; first ask yourself why you got in back then. I accepted my loss early on—it was money spent on a lesson. $ICP $BTC This evening's downward move broke around 83,400. The price slid quickly from above 84,000, which surprised me a bit. But the 15-minute candlestick just dipped down and then immediately pulled back at close. The candlestick that broke the previous low has a very long lower shadow. The price did not continue to fall but stabilized.
This is a liquidity sweep. That is, the price broke below the previous low, consumed the passive buy orders accumulated below, then immediately reversed upward. The following bullish candlestick fully recovered the previous drop. This is a very standard reversal pattern; the bears did not continue pushing down.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the low hit the bullish order block from the morning. The order block was the starting point of this earlier move and now supports the price. Meanwhile, the 15-minute MACD green bars are continuously shrinking, indicating weakening bearish momentum. Although the trading volume is decreasing, the price is no longer making new lows.
Looking ahead, I lean bullish. The price quickly pulled back, showing that buying interest remains at the lows. The dividing line for the trend is around 83,100. If a candlestick closes below this level later, I will have to reconsider this judgment.
$ETH $SOL #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, testing rate hike expectations #Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? $SNDK has been weak like a pile of excuses since I entered the market
With AI not fundamentally changing storage,
SNDK's trend is just too weak.
If the US stock market doesn't effectively rebound at tonight's open,
It feels like the $1500 level probably won't hold.
Lately, I've been operating as a contrarian indicator myself,
Losing on shorting altcoins and going long on US stocks.
If it breaks below $1500, I'll admit my mistake and cut losses.
----------
Now let's look at $SPCX
I have to admire Elon Musk's control over the market.
Despite the overall downtrend in US stocks,
It remains stable above $160.
It's a bit like a bulldozer mode for altcoins.
At this momentum,
Breaking through $170 is just a matter of time.
One thing I don't understand now is,
SPCX has huge unlocks this year.
Where has all the selling pressure from these unlocks gone?
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? What’s next for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XAUT? Three major variables determine market direction
BTC 83406｜ETH 2550｜SOL 111｜XAUT 4171
First layer: Geopolitical situation and energy prices. The Middle East situation affects oil prices, and rising energy costs may push up inflation expectations. Although gold has safe-haven demand, a stronger dollar will exert pressure, and safe-haven funds may not fully offset interest rate pressures.
Second layer: U.S. inflation and interest rate expectations. CPI on October 14 and PPI on October 15 are about to be released. If inflation exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations may cool down, putting pressure on risk assets like BTC; if inflation falls, market sentiment may recover, but it is still necessary to observe whether U.S. Treasury yields fall in sync.
Third layer: Institutional funds and market validation. ETF flows and spot trading volume determine the quality of the rebound. BTC focuses on support at 83000 and resistance at 85000; $ETH focuses on 2500/2600; $SOL focuses on 110/115. If BTC rebounds but lacks capital support, the breakout may be difficult to sustain. For $XAUT, key factors to watch are gold prices, the dollar, and real interest rate changes.
My judgment: Currently, it feels more like a directional game before macro data releases. Gold strengthening and crypto assets weakening may reflect rising safe-haven demand, but price performance alone cannot confirm that funds are flowing from crypto to gold.
If gold continues to strengthen while BTC fails to break through 85000 for a long time, do you think this is a safe-haven market or is the crypto market gearing up for a breakout? $W 第一目标0.027已到！！第二目标0.025凭什么能到 ？？
0.027已兑现，先落袋不亏。代币持续解锁，长期抛压没解除，纯治理代币没有手续费分成和销毁，接不住卖盘。均线压制，反弹多是诱多。0.025是前平台密集区，破位容易加速。
反弹减仓空，止损放前高上方，破位再补。止盈止损提前设好。 Here's the conclusion first. The BTC daytime scenario is exactly the same as described in the morning session: it touched 84,250 then pulled back, current price 83,419, down 0.3% in 24 hours. ETH touched 2,577 then returned to 2,554, up 0.7% in 24 hours. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $167 million, with short positions liquidated at $115 million, accounting for nearly 70%, which is 2.5 times the 65.54 million in the morning session. The Fear and Greed Index went from 61 back to 69. The core point: the short covering mentioned in the morning session was squeezed again during the day, but the hurdle between 84,000 and 84,355 was still not overcome—the fuel for the rise is still forced buying from the opposing side, not new money. Why say this? During the day, the price moved up from around 83,600, and once it touched above 84,000, the short positions accumulated around that area in the morning session started to be stopped out and liquidated. To close short positions, buying back is necessary, which pushed the price up further, peaking at 84,250, just $100 short of the 38.2% retracement level at 84,355. But after reaching that peak, spot follow-up buying did not catch on, and the price slid back to around 83,400. This indicates two things: first, there are indeed still short positions left to be squeezed, with daytime short liquidations rising from 33.22 million in the morning to 115 million; second, the real "buying because of optimism" money has not returned yet—Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of 5.42 last week Brothers, daily mainstream altcoin quick report
$XRP $1.40 | $SOL $111.3 | $DOGE $0.0871
The three major altcoins collectively pulled back, XRP dropped back to 1.40, SOL lost 112, DOGE is struggling around 0.087.
DOGE's on-chain activity is nearly at a standstill. The network processed only 17,404 transfers in 24 hours, with just 6 transactions pending confirmation in the mempool, while the market cap is as high as $13.3 billion. Bitwise's DOGE ETF will close on October 14, with zero inflows since listing. Addresses holding between 1 million and 100 million coins have reduced about 100 million coins since Tuesday; 0.084 is the last defense line of the uptrend.
Institutional demand for SOL is ebbing, but there is still on-chain foundation. In October, SOL ETF net outflow exceeded $22 million, last week's inflow was only $2.43 million, shrinking 99% compared to the previous week's $188 million. However, Solana has 1.71 million new wallets daily, 4.27 million daily active addresses, and on-chain hot money remains, but the slow money from ETFs has left.
XRP ETF attracts funds against the trend but the price does not rise. Last week net inflow was $11.3 million, with Bitwise alone supporting $10.55 million. XRP fell from 1.52 to 1.31 then rebounded to 1.40; 1.37959 is a key support—if held, the structure is intact; if lost, look to 1.33.
Discuss in the comments, which of these three do you least favor?👇
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test Gold ETFs are still buying, but the price is falling. Why? Because U.S. Treasury yields have been high, suppressing gold from risingThe key for DOGE's current rebound is whether it can hold its ground! Don't be fooled by today's green; the space lost from the previous drop hasn't been fully recovered yet.
DOGE is currently priced around 0.0875 USDT, up about 2.8% in the last 24 hours. However, judging from recent trends, the price has fallen steadily from around $0.097, and the short-term rebound cannot yet be considered a reversal.
On the upside, watch for $0.089–$0.090; only a breakout with volume above this range will give a chance to push towards $0.093. On the downside, pay attention to $0.085–$0.084; if this support breaks, it may retest around $0.082.
On the news front, DogeOS recently launched a public testnet supporting trading, lending, and stablecoin applications, attempting to expand DOGE's practical use. However, it is still in the testing phase and cannot yet be considered a direct positive catalyst.
Short-term strategy: only consider continuation of the rebound if it breaks and holds above $0.090; if it falls below $0.084, be cautious of further weakness. This currently looks more like a corrective move after a decline, so blindly chasing the rise is not recommended. $DOGE Brothers, the ETH staking queue has changed, and this is more important than the price itself.
$BTC $83,400 | $ETH $2,550
Bitcoin rebounded from 80,400 to 83,400, while Ethereum is consolidating around 2,550. In the past 24 hours, liquidations reached $70.7 million, with shorts accounting for 54%.
Those wanting to sell ETH have basically sold out.
At the end of September, there were still 851,000 ETH queued for unlocking, and the market once worried about a sell-off. Now only 154,000 remain in the exit queue, while 1.68 million are waiting to be staked, which is 11 times the amount exiting. Exchange ETH balances have also dropped to 3.49% of total supply, the lowest since November 2024.
But leveraged longs have piled up heavily on ETH. Open interest on ETH contracts on Hyperliquid reached $3.3 billion, surpassing Bitcoin, with 67% of positions being long. If it breaks below 2,400, the risk of liquidating these longs is significant.
Technically, 2,400 is the lifeline for ETH; holding it gives a chance to challenge 2,800. For BTC, 82,000-82,300 is the first line of defense.
Let's discuss in the comments: staking exit clearance—could this be a bottoming signal?👇
#CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed Bitcoin is expected to continue fluctuating, patiently awaiting this week's CPI and PPI.
Today, BTC once broke through $84,000, then fell back to around $83,400.
Currently, the position is short on SUI; after a pullback rebound, Bitcoin is expected to continue fluctuating. Shorting altcoins at high rebound levels is cost-effective but position control is necessary.
Currently, three main changes are being focused on:
1. Macro environment: The Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire news temporarily pushed oil prices down, driving a rebound in risk assets, but the agreement still has uncertainties. High yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and inflation pressures have not disappeared.
2. Capital flow: Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $679 million, ETH a net outflow of about $542 million, indicating the capital side remains weak.
3. Market structure: Altcoins have rebounded, futures trading volume has significantly increased, but the growth in open interest contracts is limited, so it cannot yet be concluded that new funds have continuously entered the market.
My judgment:
Short-term sentiment has somewhat recovered, but there is still insufficient evidence for a trend reversal.
BTC key focus is on the $82,000 support and whether it can break through around $84,000 again.
The most critical events this week are the CPI on the 14th and PPI on the 15th. Rather than predicting direction in advance, I prefer to observe the U.S. Treasury reaction, ETF funds, and market volume-price changes after the inflation data is released.
Price rebounds do not equal trend reversals; ultimately, judging the bottom depends on whether capital can continue to flow back.$PONS breaks below previous lows, the weakness is not over yet
PONS accelerated its short-term breakdown, the current price has fallen below the lows of the past few hours, and I choose not to buy into this weakness. The highs and lows of the past few hours were at 0.354 / 0.3359 USDT, and the just closed 5-minute candle is at 0.3223 USDT, with the price clearly below the lower boundary of that range.
From the rhythm, it dropped 5.32% in the last hour, and another 4.42% in the last 15 minutes, the decline is still continuing in the short term. The overall drop in the past 24 hours is -9.06%, indicating this is not a sudden spike but a sustained weak state.
I won’t try to guess the bottom at this position. Since the price has already broken below the previous reference low, I will at least wait for it to climb back above 0.3359 USDT before considering. For now, watching is more comfortable than acting."Four years, one liquidation cycle, and a confession from a 985 economics graduate"
Four years in the circle, counting real money. If counting from the day I learned about $BTC, it's been eight years; I was in the second year of high school then.
My undergraduate days were just small-scale dabbling. Last year, I made my first "big money" trade. I lost over ten thousand, which was 30% of my principal.
That year, I experienced what others in the crypto world go through in several years: making 15x gains, liquidation, C2C, liquidation again, and the cycle repeated.
The most dangerous time was when I couldn't withdraw money from the fund over the weekend; I almost borrowed from online loans to cover my position. In hindsight, I nearly became the kind of person I despise the most.
I am a 985 economics graduate student, confident in my learning ability and cognition, yet I still couldn't escape the "rational man’s dilemma"—knowing I was gambling but having to gamble anyway.
This year is different. Profits and losses are stable, I’m not driven by emotions, and I can calmly face a failed trade. Before, losing one trade made me obsess over making it back; now I accept it and review my mistakes. This is progress for me.
If I could start over, I don’t know if I would enter this circle again. But as long as I know BTC, I will remain its believer. Because it fits all my fantasies about a sovereign-less currency.
This is just a personal reflection and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are in the October 15 financial report? $SOL's movement today, I can only say: two times it surged high, two times it failed to hold.
All Sunday it hovered between 109 and 110, so flat that I was too lazy to even open it. Then that bullish candle at midnight suddenly pulled from just over 109 to 112, I was asleep and completely missed it.
Woke up in the morning and, wow, it had already finished rising.
At noon, another big bullish candle pushed it straight up to 113.4. I had already clicked into the order page, thinking maybe this time it would break through. But within two hours, bearish candles came one after another, and now it's back to 111.3, basically back to where it was at midnight.
All for nothing.
The most frustrating part is, I checked more than twenty times today, didn’t dare chase when it was rising, wanted to buy the dip when it was falling, and ended up doing nothing. If I had just honestly closed the app and slept, the result would have been the same, and I might have saved some hair.
Last week SOL dropped hard, so I really don’t trust this small rebound today. Every time I think "it's stable," it hits me like this—I’m almost developing a conditioned reflex.
Right now I’m just watching the 111 line; if it holds, I’ll consider it still consolidating, if it doesn’t, then today’s rise was for nothing.
Anyway, I’m not making a move.
Did you guys get in today? Or like me, just watching without acting?Recently, the crypto market has shown a typical internal divergence among mainstream coins: Bitcoin has entered a slight pullback, while Ethereum has independently rallied. This structural rotation is the result of a combination of capital preference and market environment. Bitcoin is currently oscillating downward around $83,000. Previously, there were several consecutive days of net outflows from spot ETFs, with a cumulative outflow exceeding $700 million, marking one of the strongest institutional capital exits since the second half of this year. Coupled with a large amount of short-term profit-taking accumulated near the key resistance level of $84,000, some funds chose to take profits and exit, directly suppressing Bitcoin's upward momentum and gradually initiating a short-term pullback.
Ethereum, on the other hand, has rallied against the trend during the same period, quickly surpassing the $2,550 mark with an intraday gain close to 2%. Ethereum previously experienced a short-term deep correction exceeding 7%, during which a large number of high-position long leverages were fully cleared, and short-selling pressure was also concentratedly released. Additionally, ongoing technical upgrades at the ecosystem level and the growing long-term expectations for real asset tokenization applications have led many low-position institutional funds to choose this time to bottom-fish and build positions. This has rapidly boosted buying power, driving an independent recovery in price. The order depth within its 0.5% price spread has doubled compared to the flash crash phase, with significantly increased market maker participation, supporting this counter-trend rally.
This round of divergence is a common rotation phenomenon among mainstream coins during a bull market cycle, rather than a signal of trend reversal. Overall market liquidity has not experienced large-scale contraction. Going forward, attention should be focused on the strength of support around Bitcoin's $81,500 level and the pressure zone of previously trapped positions above Ethereum's $2,700 level. Combined with the upcoming release of U.S. CPI inflation data and its impact on macro liquidity, it will be important to determine whether the subsequent market trend will continue the rotation or return to synchronization. $BTC $ETH Don't be fooled by the short-term rebound! It's too early to call a bull market recovery speed 🤔🤔🤔
BTC just had a slight rally, and the whole network started flooding with "bull market recovery speed"! But objectively speaking: this is just a technical correction after an oversell, not a trend reversal. 🤓🤓🤓
The market is catching its breath in the short term because the expectation of an interest rate hike in October has significantly cooled down, giving the crypto market a brief rebound space. However, the Federal Reserve's overall stance remains hawkish; the meeting minutes show most officials support another rate hike this year, and Goldman Sachs even bets on two hikes, so long-term monetary tightening pressure remains.
Currently, the market shows extreme divergence: BTC holds steady around 83,000, showing the strongest resistance to decline, but heavy resistance above and intense battle between bulls and bears make the sustainability of the rebound questionable.
ETH is weaker, oscillating repeatedly around the 2,500 mark, following the broader market but with seriously insufficient bullish momentum; SOL is a typical highly volatile altcoin, repeatedly shaken around 110 dollars, with drastic ups and downs—a real grinder for retail investors.
The current market sentiment is extremely sensitive, and all funds are on the sidelines. The core factor that will truly determine the market direction is this week's crucial CPI data! The quality of the data will directly affect rate hike expectations and set the rhythm for the next round of crypto market ups and downs. At this stage, do not blindly chase the market.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, rate hike expectations face a test #Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure? $ZEC 永续50倍多单，1236.09开，现1306.66，浮盈+285.45%。
逻辑很简单：1236.09 附近反复探底不破，每次回调都被快速拉起，下影线越来越长，卖盘明显衰竭。等到放量突破，右侧确认，跟多进去。50倍，止损 1200。这一波涨得比较流畅，完全没给回踩机会，收益直接翻了2倍多。
现在把止损挪到 1280 锁利。上方 1400 如果放量突破，还能再拿一拿。$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 No major new developments from top institutions in the past 24 hours, all extensions of old trends. Over in Hong Kong, Paul Chan called 2026 a turning point for Web3 plus AI, the HKMA issued stablecoin licenses, and also opened the door for tokenized secondary market trading. Polygon burned 100 million POL, accounting for 1% of the total supply, and plans to continue burning.
Just registered a foreign car at the checkpoint, then checked ETH. Current price 2551.7, a rebound test after a downtrend, the MACD golden cross is a false signal. The MA21 and MA55 above are pressing down hard, bulls have no volume at all. The liquidation map is even clearer, a large amount of short stop-loss liquidity is stacked between 2560 and 2600, pulling up in this range is a bull trap, funds are clearly shorting on rallies. 2580 will most likely face resistance and fall back, support is seen between 2480 and 2500 below.
Don’t hesitate in your trades. Light short positions near 2551, add once at 2580, stop loss above 2610. First target 2500, second target 2480. Don’t be greedy with longs, a rebound to resistance is an escape opportunity, not a bottom-fishing signal.
Just checked the underground garage, no issues. Same with this ETH wave, don’t hold on stubbornly, short when you should.
$ETH
#InstitutionsKeepPositioning, WhyIsBTCStillUnderPressure?
@OKX Planet 500 bucks challenge: The road to recovering 160k
Day 9
Live trading challenge diary
1. Capital status
Yesterday's capital: 789
Current capital: 863
(Feeling unwell, no big moves, survived with a few short trades, small profit of 30u, satisfied)
2. Today's trade review (with screenshots)
· $W: Correctly timed the trend to short, entry average price 0.027967, exit at 0.026436. 20x full position, directly grabbed +107.12% return, although only earned 2.67u, the win rate feels great, took the profit and ran!
· $CHIP: Honestly thought this coin would still pump, but once the market gave an opportunity, decisively shorted full 20x position hard! Entered at 0.06688, exited at 0.0642, secured +78.58% profit (+6.30u). Proved that not blindly believing but following the market to short hard is the right move.
· $MAGIC: Perfectly executed the "short on rebound" strategy, like picking up free money. Shorted in at 0.12768, exited at 0.12727, although only +5.07% profit (+1.58u), took a few points and ran, no hesitation.#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, What Other Highlights Are in the October 15 Earnings Report? Key Points of TSMC Earnings Report
TSMC's Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 50%,
but this data had already been disclosed in advance, and the market had anticipated it.
The October 15 earnings report will mainly focus on three points:
First, gross margin, to see if the premium AI orders can offset the factory construction costs;
Second, the full-year performance guidance and Q4 revenue situation;
Third, the scale of capital expenditure in 2027, used to assess the company's outlook on future AI demand.
Currently, market expectations are already quite high, so even if the earnings data is impressive,
as long as management takes a conservative stance, it is easy for a positive rally to fizzle out.
In the context of the crypto market, this news is only a secondary sentiment factor,
not a core force determining the overall market trend. $xTSM $BTC #Institutions Keep Positioning, Why Does BTC Still Face Pressure?
The boss has something to say
Institutions are positioning, yet BTC is still under pressure.
Morgan Stanley's MSBT holds about 10,639 BTC, and Strive also plans to continue expanding its treasury allocation through preferred stock financing. Long-term capital is indeed coming in.
But short-term capital is withdrawing. From October 7 to 8, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $731 million. On the 9th, only $21.13 million flowed back in, less than 3% of the outflow in the previous two days. The speed of money coming in can't keep up with the speed of money leaving.
BTC has dropped from 87,000 to around 83,000. US Treasury yields and energy prices remain high, and CPI is about to be released. Institutional allocation is a slow variable; short-term selling pressure is a fast variable. Slow money can't catch fast money, so the price can't hold.
My long BTC position at 83,000 is still open, and the short at 86,500 is also still open. Hedging on both sides with light positions. No one-sided bets before CPI release. Long stop loss at 81,500, target 86,000. Short stop loss at 87,500, target 84,500 to 85,000. Whichever target is reached first, reduce that position first.
Short-term outlook is sideways, mid-term waiting for direction. ETF fund flow is key; if inflows continue to increase, hold longs. If outflows continue, watch short targets. Don't chase the rally or kill the dip; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $MAGIC Hormuz hasn't opened yet, the Saudi airport got bombed, and the oil tanker got hit too. According to the old script, gold would have flown up already. But XAUT dropped 4 points in a month, and today it fluctuated less than 1 point all day long, watching it almost made me fall asleep.
At the 4168 price, several moving averages are all crowded around 4180, and it's just sticking close to the lower side. RSI is 37, neither bulls nor bears have much strength. The dollar is still above 102, the 10-year US Treasury yield is holding above 5.2, so it's hard for gold to shine.
Everyone is waiting for Wednesday; only when the CPI lands will this stagnant water stir.
Brothers still holding XAUT, are you still holding this shield? Or do you think it won't hold up this time?
$XAUT #CheckingInWithOKX2049