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Katie_OKX
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC August payrolls feel like the final piece the Fed has been waiting for before September 👀
ADP private payrolls rose by just 38K, below the 47K forecast and the weakest result since January. The Beige Book added to the softer picture: 10 of 12 districts reported only modest growth, while hiring slowed.
What I find interesting is that markets still price a 25bp hike at roughly 62.3%. The labor data is cooling, but inflation remains difficult to dismiss. Core PCE held at 3.3%, and 54% of tracked PCE components reportedly rose more than 3% YoY—up from 47% a year ago 📊
That explains why Williams could describe inflation as encouraging while still taking a wait-and-see approach.
Tomorrow’s payroll report probably won’t settle every argument, but it should show which risk currently worries the Fed more: persistent inflation or a labor market losing momentum.
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