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#Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes
My judgment: This time, the negative nonfarm payrolls data triggered a short-term rebound in BTC and ETH, but the gains were far less than gold $XAU — BTC surged from 62,500 to 65,300 before retreating to around 64,900 to consolidate, and ETH simultaneously rose above $1,910. However, how far this rebound can go depends crucially on the CPI data on August 12.
After the nonfarm payrolls release on August 7, the market logic was straightforward — weak employment → cooling rate hike expectations → risk assets benefit. The probability of a rate hike in September dropped sharply from nearly 60% to about 44%. $BTC jumped straight up from around 62,500 before the data release, reaching as high as $65,300, and the total crypto market cap rebounded to $2.21 trillion. ETH rose in tandem to $1,943 before falling back to around $1,914.
But one detail is worth noting: spot gold surged more than 7% in a single week, breaking through $4,350. BTC’s move from 62,500 to 65,300 was only about a 4.5% fluctuation, and the "digital gold" narrative clearly lagged behind physical gold in this rally. Internal factors are also holding it back — the shadows of cold wallet thefts and institutional selling have not yet dissipated.
The real judge will be the CPI on August 12. Currently, July’s core CPI year-over-year has risen to 3.1%, and if it exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations may return. My judgment is: the nonfarm payrolls gave BTC and $ETH a pulse, but 65,300 may be the peak of this rebound — unless the CPI delivers better-than-expected news, chasing higher prices has very low cost-effectiveness. #PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound
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