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BTC｜About 76,889: Dropped back below 77,000, short-term bearish
Price is below the 20-hour, 50-hour, and 4-hour moving averages; recent lows continue to move lower, with no evidence of stable support yet.
Downside: Currently watching around 76,850, but this is a forming low and support remains to be confirmed. If it breaks further, focus on the previous lows around 76,100—76,200.
Upside: *77,150—77,400 is the first resistance; further recovery to *77,550—78,000 is needed to significantly ease the weakness.
My bias: Bearish, with continued risk of probing lower. Until 77,400 is reclaimed, any rebound should be viewed as a correction after the decline. The market weakening as expected is not hindsight: BTC, ETH, and ZEC all fell together, and the waterfall risk has not yet been eliminated.
I still maintain a bearish perspective on this market: it’s not that I turned bearish because of the drop, but because the weak structure has never truly been repaired. Currently, BTC is at 77,068.01 USDT, down 1.37% in 24 hours; ETH is at 2,254.88 USDT, down 0.68%; ZEC is at 1,181.58 USDT, down 4.39%, all three under simultaneous pressure.
From a technical standpoint, BTC and ETH daily MACD remain in the bearish zone after a death cross, with super trends all pointing downward; RSI(6) values are 28.03 and 29.58 respectively, entering oversold territory which does not imply an immediate reversal but rather indicates that short-term volatility may intensify. ZEC’s decline is even greater; although it retains a MACD golden cross and bullish moving average alignment, its price is approaching a near 7-day low, and the super trend is also downward.
Volume has not provided enough support for the bulls: BTC volume ratio is 0.68, ETH 0.92, ZEC 0.79. The capital flow is also diverging, with net outflows for ETH and ZEC. Platform security and withdrawal/deposit recovery progress reported in public news may still cause risk appetite to fluctuate.
I will use whether volume expands subsequently and whether BTC and ETH can reclaim short- and mid-term moving averages as conditions to observe if the weakness is easing; if repair fails, the lower bound of volatility still needs to be watched. 💥Grinding Market: Like chewing gum stuck to the sole of your shoe, impossible to shake off
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Rubbing against the curb, scraping off a layer
Using a twig to scrape, thinning it by half
Keep walking, the gum is still there
It won't fall off by itself
Completely scraping it off takes too much time
BTC's chewing gum
Stuck between 76500—77000
Low point 76260.8 pulled back
ETF absorption slowly digesting
Bearish momentum thinning
But resistance hasn't been shaken off
Before FOMC, no one wants to fully clear out
ETH's chewing gum
Stuck at 2200
2183–2200 demand zone repeatedly tested
Thinned out, still can't shake it off
SOL's chewing gum
Stuck at 94, grinding for many days
92.34 is the little stone underneath
One step forward, one step stuck
It doesn't stop you from moving forward
But with every step, you clearly feel it's there
Are you repeatedly rubbing it off now, or just giving up and ignoring it?
In the comments, report your heaviest position: BTC / ETH / SOL, let's see whose shoe sole has the thickest chewing gum
Just a market record, not investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 1. iPhone: This quarter includes the iPhone18 series + the first foldable iPhone Duo launch (September event), but Duo sales start in late October, with only a small initial stock in Q4; most revenue will fall into the next fiscal quarter. The supply chain reports increased Duo orders, but production capacity is limited, making it a mid-to-long-term variable rather than a main driver this quarter.🚨 Mercado Bitcoin is suspected of being hacked, with $46.5 million in assets stolen
According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, the Brazilian cryptocurrency exchange Mercado Bitcoin is suspected of being hacked, with approximately $46.5 million worth of crypto assets traced to related addresses.
Currently, the hackers are said to have stored these assets in 46 addresses, including 3,680 ETH, 106 BTC, and $8 million worth of stablecoins.
The details of this attack and the exact amount of loss are still to be further verified.#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 Palantir has always been a highly controversial stock in the US AI sector. Backed by government contracts and combined with the commercialization of its AI platform AIP, the company has maintained rapid revenue growth for multiple consecutive quarters, with a continuously expanding customer base. The market holds high expectations for its AI monetization capabilities.
However, behind the impressive growth lies a persistently high valuation. The current stock price has already priced in long-term AI dividends in advance. The core market disagreements focus on two points: first, government business faces risks from policy and budget fluctuations, so order stability is not absolute; second, whether the commercial side’s AIP customer conversion and repurchase can continue to scale, reducing dependence on large government and enterprise contracts.
This earnings report will focus on revenue growth rate, AIP revenue proportion, guidance for new commercial customers, and changes in gross margin. If the data can continue to deliver high growth, the valuation logic can hold steady; if growth slows or guidance falls short of expectations, the high valuation will face significant downward pressure.
High growth is its story, high valuation is its shackle, and this earnings report is the key to verifying whether the story can continue.OKXICE disclosed that 12 additional companies have opposed its stock tokenization plan, including Nvidia, Costco, Nike, Reddit, and CrowdStrike, bringing the total number of companies formally objecting to 50, which is about 79% of the initially proposed 63 companies.
The newly opposing companies also include Palo Alto Networks, Micron Technology, Corning, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, IREN, USA Rare Earth, and Bloom Energy. The combined market value of these 50 companies is approximately $25 trillion, with more than half listed on Nasdaq and 42% on the New York Stock Exchange.
OKXICE is a joint venture between a cryptocurrency exchange and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), planning to launch blockchain-based U.S. stock tokens to support continuous trading for investors.
$BTC Market Snapshot (Nov 3, 01:39)
Current price 77093.24, 24h -1.34%.
24h range 77020—78878.01, trading volume $861 million.
#cryptocurrency $BTC#strategy repurchases $208 million STRC and increases holdings by 811 BTC
【Follow Old Chives, Wealth Is Yours】Strategy repurchases $208 million STRC while increasing holdings by 811 BTC! Where is Saylor focusing the funds this time?
Michael Saylor's Bitcoin treasury strategy has new moves again!
📊 What impact does this have on the market and related assets?
$BTC: Strategy resumes accumulation, indicating institutional treasury demand remains.
$MSTR: The company continues to finance coin purchases by issuing common stock; investors need to watch financing efficiency and common stock dilution issues.
$STRC: Large-scale repurchase reduces the number of outstanding preferred shares, but dividend costs should also be monitored.
📌 Two details worth noting in this operation:
1️⃣ Increased holdings by 811 BTC, total holdings reach 849,327 BTC
Strategy bought 811 BTC at an average price of $80,846 each, with a total expenditure of about $65.5 million.
As of November 1, the company holds a total of 849,327 BTC, with a total purchase cost of about $64.08 billion and an average holding cost of about $75,451.
This means Strategy holds more than 4% of the total BTC supply cap, and the influence of institutional treasuries remains significant.
2️⃣ Spent $208 million to repurchase STRC, an amount more than three times the BTC purchase BTC is still oscillating weakly around 77,000, ETH has slightly turned positive, but XRP continues to trade sideways weakly! What’s even more disheartening is that while the ecosystem and institutional funds are advancing, the price still fails to respond.
The most ironic part of this market is that ETF inflows, stablecoin volume, and ledger upgrades are expanding, but that doesn’t mean holders will immediately see capital returning.
Latest news: XRP continues to push forward XRPL cleanup upgrades (fixCleanup3_4_0 expected to activate on November 4), RLUSD stablecoin supply growth, and institutional tokenization implementation, reinforcing its position as the native chain for cross-border payments and institutional settlements. The narrative of long-term user and institutional conversion is strengthening, but short-term market reactions remain cautious.
Looking first at $BTC, the price is about 77,450, with a slight 24-hour decline. After losing and regaining 78,000, whether it can firmly stand above this level again is the focus.
Next, $ETH is around 2,270, showing relatively steady performance. There is still pressure near 2,300, but the follow-through strength is acceptable.
Finally, $XRP is about 1.25, showing weakness. Among the three coins, it faces the greatest pressure. If it continues to lose support near 1.22, short-term pressure may increase.
Summary: BTC’s outlook depends on whether it can retake 78,000, ETH on the strength of its follow-through, and XRP on whether capital truly returns after ecosystem implementation. No matter how much progress is made, it depends on whether the funds buy in!
Do you think XRP will break below 1.22 first, or BTC will stabilize above 78,000 first?
。#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ November 2 $ETH Market Analysis 📊
ETH rebounded from around 2171 and has now climbed back above 2300, showing some short-term recovery. The key focus next is the 2350–2370 resistance zone; whether it can break through effectively is crucial.
Support to watch below is 2260–2280; only if it holds steady after a pullback is there a chance for continued rebound.
This week also features important events like the US midterm elections and non-farm payroll data. Meanwhile, the ETH spot ETF has seen net outflows for five consecutive weeks, with institutional funds not yet showing clear return.
Overall, it currently looks more like an oversold rebound; a trend reversal still needs confirmation. Be cautious chasing longs at resistance levels and pay attention to risk control.
#ETH行情 #非农数据 #OKX星球Is Trump really going to lose control of Congress this time? With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, prediction markets are giving the Democrats about a 70% chance of taking both the House and Senate.
However, odds are just expectations after all, and Trump has previously defied unfavorable forecasts to pull off a comeback. Whether the Republicans can hold onto Congress this time still depends on the votes.
More than who wins or loses, I’m more concerned about the market trends after the election.
If the Democrats control both chambers, it could become more difficult for Trump to push through tax cuts, fiscal policies, and some regulatory reforms. For BTC and tech stocks, short-term policy expectations will also need to be recalibrated.
Interestingly, looking back at 2018 and 2022, the U.S. stock market experienced noticeable pullbacks during midterm election years, followed by a rally. But at those times, factors like Federal Reserve rate hikes and inflation also influenced the market, so it can’t be simply attributed to the elections.
Now BTC has already fallen quite a bit from its highs, and tech stocks have undergone significant adjustments. I actually think new opportunities might emerge after the election.
After all, the market has already priced in some pessimism in advance. If the results don’t exceed expectations, combined with a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, the possibility of funds re-entering the market is not low.
But I’m not in a rush to bottom-fish just yet. I want to wait for the election results to settle, see if BTC can hold key support levels, and whether tech stocks show sustained buying interest.
For this midterm election, do you think it will mark the start of a new rally or a continuation of the downtrend?
#美國期中選舉在即，哪些結果值得關注？ Behind the $HYPE Recovery: It's More Than Just Sentiment Repair
This round of $HYPE recovery feels more like a result of fundamentals resonating with buying pressure. Data disclosed by Grayscale shows Hyperliquid's revenue in September reached $105 million, with non-core revenue at $38 million, and the core perpetual fee proportion dropping to 64%. This indicates that its revenue sources are expanding and no longer rely solely on a single perpetual business.
Following that, ecosystem data added fuel to the fire: the number of trading addresses surpassed 3 million, reaching 3,001,003; Anthropic perpetual contracts went live, further expanding the range of trading products. The number of addresses represents user reach, while new contracts open up incremental trading volume. More importantly, about $67.9 million of $HYPE was repurchased in the past 30 days, with protocol buy orders providing real price support.
Market trends also confirm resilience. On October 30, $HYPE hit a low of $88.62 and closed at $90.04, up 1.06% for the day; it fell back to $87.93 on the 31st; and rose again to $88.16 on November 1. After volatility, it quickly stabilized, indicating that selling pressure is not out of control.
Of course, addresses are just the facade; revenue is the real strength. Going forward, the two key things to watch are whether new markets can bring sustained trading volume and whether revenue can consistently convert into repurchases. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 🔴 xNVDA/USDT Short Setup & Prediction 📉
* Current Price: $xNVDA 206.70
* Trend: Strong Bearish
* Signal: Short 🔻
Trade Plan:
* Entry / Current: $xNVDA 206.70
* Target 1: $201.24
* Target 2: $195.00
* Stop Loss: $213.50
Quick Analysis:
The chart shows clear downward momentum with moving averages sloping sharply lower (MA20 at $213.40). Even with a slight green candle, heavy selling pressure persists. Expect price to retest recent support near $201.24. A brief look at the midday market:
$BTC 78,145, the rebound strength is average, trading volume has not significantly increased, more like short covering. After Binance reopened withdrawals, there was a net outflow of 3.6 billion, the market is temporarily stable, whether 78,000 can hold still needs further observation.
$ETH 2240, the rebound is noticeably weaker than BTC, 2200 is a key support, breaking below may lead to further retest of 2000.
$SOL 94.84, after breaking below 100, it has been unable to recover, on-chain data has improved somewhat, but the price remains weak.
$RE 0.37, trading volume is low, the insurance narrative has not yet attracted capital attention.
$OKB 111, platform partnership news failed to drive the price, short-term trend is relatively independent.
The Federal Reserve's rate hike signals have reemerged, December policy expectations still diverge, market volatility is worth noting.
The above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. 🔴 ETH/USDT Short Setup & Prediction 📉
* Current Price: $ETH 2,257.71
* Trend: Strong Bearish
* Signal: Short 🔻
Trade Plan:
* Entry / Current: $ETH 2,257.71
* Target 1: $2,200.00
* Target 2: $2,174.00
* Stop Loss: $2,310.00
Quick Analysis:
Ethereum continues to trade in a strong downtrend under key moving averages. Expect price to test support near $2,200.00. A break below that level can push it down toward the low at $2,174.00. Keep your risk tight! 🚀 📊 Mixed Data, Mixed Market Signals
ISM at 55.5 shows continued expansion, while easing price pressure and weaker construction spending suggest some cooling. Demand remains active, but neither bulls nor bears have a clear advantage.
Market Snapshot:
- $BTC : $77,962
- $ETH : $2,292
- $SOL: $94.43
- $ZEC : $1,266
Open interest is rising across all four, but price confirmation remains weak.
📌 My Strategy:
BTC holding $77,962 could support a small long setup; losing #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook Nvidia and Nike are no longer willing! 50 companies collectively oppose stock tokenization!
This is quite interesting.
OKX and the New York Stock Exchange's parent company ICE are preparing to tokenize stocks, allowing US stocks to be traded on the blockchain.
As a result, the latest list of opposing companies has grown to 50.
Nvidia, Nike, Microsoft, JPMorgan Chase, and Coca-Cola are all on it.
Why are these big companies unwilling?
Simply put, after stocks are tokenized, trading hours, liquidity, and trading channels may all change.
For the crypto industry, this is a new market; but for listed companies, how their stocks are traded and who manages them are real interests at stake.
I actually think this matter is more worth paying attention to than just speculating on a new concept.
Stock tokenization—do you think it's a financial market upgrade or just another speculative market? $BTC $ETH
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 🚀 $BTC BULLS ARE WAKING UP! Is $87K the next target? 🔥
BTC is holding strong above the daily MA(99) at $76,670, and buyers seem ready to step in.
📈 LONG SETUP
Entry: $77,000
TP1: $78,650
TP2: $81,050
TP3: $87,000
Stop Loss: $75,300
As long as support holds, $81K is the next key target, with $87,385 potentially back in sight.
⚠️ Stay disciplined, watch volume, and don't chase the move. Confirmation first, profits second!
#BTC #Bitcoin #Trading #USOctJobsReportInFocus
#DailyOrbit 🔴 OKB/USDT Short Setup & Prediction 📉
* Current Price: $OKB 110.49
* Trend: Bearish Pullback
* Signal: Short 🔻
Trade Plan:
* Entry / Current: $OKB 110.49
* Target 1: $106.00
* Target 2: $100.00
* Stop Loss: $115.00
Quick Analysis:
The chart shows sellers taking control after a brief bounce, with candles dropping back toward low support. Expect price to test support near $106.00. A break below that level opens the door for a deeper drop toward $100.00. Manage your risk carefully! 🚀 $SOL – Bearish Signal 🔴
Entry: 92.50–92.80
Target 1: 92.00
Target 2: 91.50
Target 3: 91.00
Stop Loss: 93.50
Trend: Strong bearish momentum.
Price is below EMA 5, 10 and 20, showing selling pressure.
Trading Call: Short on a weak retest; avoid chasing the price.
⚠️ Manage risk carefully. Signal is based on the 1H chart and is not guaranteed.
#DailyOrbit @OKX 预言家 The US midterm elections are tomorrow.
Bitcoin dropped -24% after the last midterms in 2022.
Expect high volatility. Stay away from leverage.
$BTC
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook ZEC was hit hard by a whale with a "spot + contract" double strike, the signal is unusual 🤔
A whale made a move on ZEC: first buying 3,052 spot coins, about $3.8 million; then opening a 2x leveraged long position of 8,000 ZEC contracts, with a notional value of about $10.16 million 😱 This is not a small matter.
First, spot as the base and contracts to enhance means the whale is not just aiming for short-term gains but seems to be betting on a mid-term trend. Spot locks in the chips, contracts improve efficiency, the strategy is quite clear 🧠
Second, 2x leverage is considered restrained in crypto, with relatively low liquidation risk, more like a risk-controlled player rather than a gambler 🛡️
Third, ZEC usually has low visibility, so a large-scale buy of this old privacy coin is indeed intriguing. Is it a resurgence of the privacy narrative, a technical catalyst, or a pre-positioning? We can’t speculate on insider info, but the capital movement is worth watching 👀
Honestly, whales can be wrong too; large purchases don’t guarantee a rise. Ordinary people shouldn’t be driven by FOMO; first watch subsequent transactions, positions, and ZEC fundamentals before deciding 📉📈
$ZEC
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #FedRateHikeProbabilityDropsTo70
FED PIVOT WATCH: Hike odds drop to 70.5% from 83% — divergence is on.
Dec 8-9 FOMC: Market now prices 70.5% hike vs 29.5% hold. Fed funds still 3.75-4.00% after Oct 28 hold (10-2 vote). 10Y yield fell to 4.93% as tech selloff hit bonds.
Bulls: soft landing, rotate to value
Bears: tech liquidations, liquidity crunch
For crypto: lower hike odds = risk-on tailwind, but volatility spikes near FOMC.
#FedHikesBTCResilience #FOMC #Fed #OKX #OKXOrbit #BTC #ETH 🚨 50 U.S. companies are reportedly pushing back against OKX/ICE’s stock tokenization initiative, including major names like Nvidia, Walmart, and Micron.
But the irony is that they may not actually oppose tokenization itself. The real issue could be OKX/ICE’s strict compliance approach.
Platforms like Robinhood, bStocks, Dinari, and xStocks generally operate under different regulatory structures, whether through offshore arrangements or traditional brokerage frameworks.
#DailyOrbit 🔴 xSOXL/USDT Short Setup & Prediction 📉
* Current Price: $xSOXL 75.84
* Trend: Strong Bearish
* Signal: Short 🔻
Trade Plan:
* Entry / Current: $xSOXL 75.84
* Target 1: $71.00
* Target 2: $65.00
* Stop Loss: $81.00
Quick Analysis:
The chart shows heavy downward pressure with moving averages sloping sharply lower. Expect price to test support near $71.00. A break below that level can drive a drop toward $65.00. Manage your risk carefully! 🚀 ⚠️ Market Calm Doesn't Mean Market Health
$BTC is holding up after the major hack, with whale accumulation and steady ETF inflows. But rising volatility and the attacker's untouched wallet remain key risks. Stability is there, but confidence is still fragile.
$ETH faces ETF outflows and ongoing security concerns, while $SOL continues to weaken despite positive ecosystem news. Fundamentals alone aren't enough to drive prices.
📌 Key Market View:
$BTC has stronger #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook After $BTC smashed through the 80,000 mark, the current rebound looks weak and soft.
The range from 78,800 to 80,000 is full of trapped holders stuck tight in their positions.
The entire network's profitable positions now only account for about 4%, and above that densely packed area is all dead coins.
The market can't even muster any volume; there's no way the main players would kindly free them—it's purely a bull trap.
With this trend, it's clear the target is the liquidation danger zone for longs down at 76,000.
#BTC
$BTC
👇At this point, should you be greedy or fearful?
ETH is tugging back and forth around $2,255.86, with resistance at $2,727 above and support at $2,245 below. The price is stuck in the middle, and neither bulls nor bears have the upper hand yet.
What’s most frustrating during this period isn’t the drop, but this indecisive oscillation—it tests patience and discipline.
The bulls say: In the past 30 days, it has already retraced to the 2% percentile, oversold + low-level support, so recovery is just a matter of time; the bears say: declining fee revenue, Layer2 diversion, competition from rivals, the ecosystem story is losing momentum, so any rebound is just a chance to escape.
Both sides have valid points, which is why the market is oscillating. This precisely means it’s not the time to heavily bet, but to wait for a clear direction before making a move.
My advice: trade the range between $2,245 and $2,727 by selling high and buying low for swing trades, don’t be greedy; wait for a volume breakout above $2,727 to target $2,781, or if it falls below $2,245, go flat and observe.
Remember this: opportunities are waited for, not chased. Data is for reference only.$NEAR The pressure on the NEAR market is too obvious.
A huge volume was traded in a short time, yet the price was firmly pinned in place.
No matter how much the bears sell, the big players below absorb it all.
Bitwise's spot ETF holdings have already reached 1%, clearly showing someone is aggressively buying below the market.
After this chip exchange and washout, it's ready to surge upward at any time.
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇$NEAR market is sideways and dead, but NEAR itself suddenly plunged with high volume.
Just now, it dumped a volume 7 times the usual, breaking through 4.1 with no decent buy orders resisting.
Typical situation where someone is offloading at any cost, while buyers are still guessing good news.
There isn't even a proper wick; rushing in now is purely feeding the market makers.
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇US stocks closed higher on Monday Eastern Time: Dow +0.81%, S&P +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.78%. Tech stocks rebounded, oil prices plunged driving risk appetite recovery, and the Golden Dragon Index strengthened.
AI computing power/cloud leaders, but no longer broadly rising; prioritize those with solid cash flow and earnings delivery, avoid chasing small caps at high levels;
Combine with high dividend, quality consumer, and healthcare stocks to hedge volatility;
Wait for interest rates and election dust to settle before looking at recovery opportunities in small caps and real estate;
Golden Dragon can be lightly positioned to speculate on rebounds, but geopolitical and regulatory disturbances are significant.
With elections, inflation fluctuations, long-term bond yields, and AI earnings below expectations, it is generally suitable to invest in batches and control position sizes.
Short term, stay on the sidelines; wait for earnings reports and election outcomes before adding positions. The main theme is differentiated quality tech, balanced with defensive stocks for stability.$DOOD – Bearish Signal 🔴
Entry: 0.001900–0.001905
Target 1: 0.001890
Target 2: 0.001880
Target 3: 0.001860
Stop Loss: 0.001925
Bias: SHORT 📉
Price is struggling below EMA20 resistance, showing bearish pressure.
A breakdown below 0.001890 could push price toward lower support levels.
Wait for confirmation before entering.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: Use proper risk management and avoid high leverage.
#DailyOrbit @OKX 预言家 The latest data has traders divided. Some see ISM at 55.5 as a sign of continued expansion, while others focus on the S&P final reading of 54.9 and construction spending falling 1.9%, far below expectations. My view: expansion is still alive, but price pressure is easing. The price index dropped from 77.9 to 75.2, while new orders at 55.5 and employment at 52.4 remain in expansion territory. Demand hasn’t collapsed, but the data doesn’t justify blind bullish or bearish bets. $BTC is near $77,96$SOPH SOPH's current surge is purely a dead cat bounce.
The chain is about to disappear, Upbit will delist and liquidate mid-month, and the withdrawal channel will be closed directly on November 25.
The top 10 addresses hold 90.58% of the tokens, this concentration is basically a closed-door crackdown.
This sharp rebound is nothing more than the dog whales making a last push to lure buyers before the withdrawal closure, then once liquidity is drained, leaving a bunch of worthless paper in hand to sink.
Don't get carried away by the red bars; this position is clearly a trap set by the whales to hand over the bag.
#SOPH
$SOPH
👇#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Before the non-farm payrolls, the market has already priced in a "72% probability of a 25bp rate hike in December," so this time it's not about whether there will be a hike, but about the expectation gap.
Three non-farm scenarios:
New jobs lower + soft wages: rate hike odds drop below 50%, US Treasury yields fall, $BTC rebounds first, $ETH has greater elasticity.
Neutral data: follow the original script, crypto consolidates and digests, no chasing.
Surprise high + sticky wages: rate hike bets surge to 50bp, BTC pulls back, ETH gets hit hard.
BTC benefits from "tightening end + devaluation hedge," the negative is about pace, not trend; ETH fears rate hike expectation revisions more, so deleveraging before the event is the right choice.
My approach: no market orders on non-farm night, wait for hourly chart stabilization before acting, no move on BTC spot, ETH waits for rate hike expectations to clear.
$ZEC $SNDK surged then pulled back and is now consolidating—what is it waiting for?
Sentiment Market levels
Brother 800 once again balanced his triple long on semiconductors, but I’m more inclined to criticize this weak and spineless Sandisk. I don’t even have the energy to criticize it.
The price has dropped from around 1198 to 1126, reaching the buy-in point I least want to see, which I mentioned in my previous article. It broke below the previous consolidation zone and is currently near the lower Bollinger Band around 1127. This indicates the 4-hour timeframe remains weak, and the bearish trend has not been reversed.
1118–1126 is the previous low support zone and the left-side buy-in point I mentioned earlier. It is currently being tested. If it effectively breaks below 1118, it will likely continue to seek support lower; if it can hold and climb back above 1138–1148, that would indicate short-term signs of a bottom.
Sandisk’s target price was lowered from 2250 to 2120, with Goldman Sachs saying hedge funds are continuously selling AI stocks. Such news suppresses sentiment, especially for Sandisk, where capital tends to amplify emotions.
My personal judgment:
Around 1115 is a key support level; for now, observation is advised, but heavy bottom-fishing is not recommended; a true turnaround depends on whether it can reclaim 1150, especially the 1160–1180 range.
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ SanDisk ($SNDK) this round of decline is mainly due to three overlapping factors:
Positive news realized: Although the financial report is good, it falls short of the market's extremely high expectations, prompting funds to take profits.
Industry cooling: The momentum of flash memory price increases has slowed, dragging down the entire storage and semiconductor sector.
Insufficient token liquidity: The on-chain depth is too thin, making it easy for large fluctuations and spikes to occur with slight selling pressure.
Summary: The company's fundamentals may not have major issues; the decline is more due to expectation gaps, sector pullbacks, and insufficient liquidity combined. For reference only, not investment advice. 🇺🇸 US Midterms: 3 Key Things Crypto Traders Should Watch
Forget the headlines. Focus on 3 major factors:
1️⃣ Congress Control
House and Senate results will shape fiscal policy and market expectations. A divided Congress could slow major policy changes.
2️⃣ Crypto Regulation
The CLARITY Act remains a key issue. Its progress could influence crypto compliance expectations, institutional participation and altcoin sentiment.
3️⃣ $BTC vs $ETH
$BTC remains tied #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook Bitcoin is holding up, but I'm not sure the market has found its confidence again. The price has recovered from the recent drop, yet there are still too many things going on behind the scenes to call this a clean recovery. BTC is trading around $77,800 on November 2, with its 24-hour performance hovering close to flat to slightly positive. That's not a bad sign after the recent selling pressure. But the bigger picture is still uncomfortable. Bitcoin recently dropped from around $81,000 toward $7🔴 CT/USDT Short Setup & Prediction 📉
* Current Price: $CT 0.12765
* Trend: Strong Bearish
* Signal: Short 🔻
Trade Plan:
* Entry / Current: $CT 0.12765
* Target 1: $0.11500
* Target 2: $0.10000
* Stop Loss: $0.14000
Quick Analysis:
The chart is in a heavy downward trend, trading near 24h lows with moving averages pointing sharply down. Expect price to test support near $0.11500. A break below that level can push it further down toward $0.10000. Manage your risk carefully! 🚀 The calm looks convincing, but it is not the same thing as health. $BTC has absorbed the shock of a major hack without breaking down, whales are accumulating, and ETF inflows keep grinding higher. Yet volatility rose during the sell-off rather than fading, and the attacker's wallet has not moved. That unmoved balance sits above the market like a suspended blade. Institutional money may be patient and long-term, but it cannot stop a sudden stampede if the right trigger appears. The divergence ben$BTC LONG 🔥💹
entry: 77,000
tp1: 78,650
tp2: 81,050
tp3: 87,000
stop: 75,300
BTC pulled back to the daily MA(99) at 76,670 and is holding above it. Buyers look like they're stepping in, and I'd expect a move toward 81,000, and potentially the 87,385 high, if the support holds.The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs only responded with 7 words: "We are not aware of the situation."
At the November 2 press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a Yonhap News reporter asked about the attack on Binance. Previously, the FBI officially determined on October 31 that North Korea was responsible for this cryptocurrency theft exceeding 6 billion USD.
Some details worth noting:
1. The FBI classified this operation as the work of the North Korean hacker group "TraderTraitor," which is the FBI's official attribution of the attacker.
2. The stolen assets are being largely converted into ETH, and the attackers plan to further use DeFi protocols and instant exchange services to transfer the stolen funds. The FBI has publicly released related wallet addresses and called on the industry to assist in interception.
3. Binance previously disclosed that preliminary investigations pointed to the DevOps engineer's laptop being compromised, allowing the attacker to access internal service containers and initiate unauthorized withdrawals. Further investigations uncovered more intrusion points, and currently, there is no evidence of wallet private key leakage.
4. Binance stated it has frozen approximately 3 billion USD of related assets and is prepared with over 6.34 billion USD in funds to cover this loss.
From the 6.3 billion USD cryptocurrency theft, to the FBI officially attributing the incident to North Korea, and to US President Trump indicating possible discussions with North Korea on this matter, this incident has gone beyond the scope of an ordinary exchange security breach.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ Apple Earnings Preview: Hardware Ignites, Services Support, AI Determines Valuation 🍎
iPhone 17 volume growth will first benefit hardware revenue; but the real profit support comes from the services business—75%+ gross margin far exceeds hardware, combined with a record high active device base, stable subscription cash flow, and stronger profit quality.📈
Weaknesses are also clear: AI realization is slow, Siri's commercialization lags behind Nvidia and Google; Mac and iPad have moderate flexibility, relying more on new product cycles; exchange rates, overseas tariffs, and regional competition remain disruptive factors.⚠️
Regarding guidance, the holiday season is optimistic, with the market betting on a replacement wave. However, pricing focus is shifting toward AI investment and computing capital expenditure—if AI underperforms expectations, valuation is likely to be pressured.📉
On the market front, AAPL is a Nasdaq heavyweight: earnings beating expectations could drive tech stocks and crypto risk appetite; missing expectations would suppress overall risk assets.🔍
In short: hardware provides flexibility, services provide stability, AI provides valuation.🚀📊Liquidation Map: BTC's Lower Pain Point Is Closer Than the Upper One
24-hour liquidation data is out, first look at the distances, not the sentiment.
Shorts' Upper Pain Points:
$BTC current price 77780, shorts' pain point 79477, liquidation 26.208 million, distance +2.13%
$ETH current price 2283, shorts' pain point 2332, liquidation 15.991 million, distance +2.09%
$SOL current price 93.95, shorts' pain point 96.27, liquidation 4.623 million, distance +2.41%
Longs' Lower Pain Points:
BTC longs' pain point 77242, liquidation 27.417 million, distance only -0.70%
ETH longs' pain point 2268, liquidation 16.629 million, distance -0.65%
SOL longs' pain point 93.38, liquidation 5.877 million, distance -0.61%
Core Analysis: BTC's lower long liquidation is only 0.7% away from the current price, marking the primary short-term risk level; the upper shorts' pain point is a bit farther but with a considerable order volume. ETH and SOL have more balanced pain point distributions above and below, with a narrow consolidation range already formed.
My judgment: short-term, first guard against a lower wick sweeping longs, then observe whether the upper shorts will cover. Close distance doesn't necessarily mean it will trigger, but position sizing should leave room.
Are you more focused on BTC first sweeping 77242 or first touching 79477?
Just a personal market record #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 Binance has just reopened withdrawals, and nearly $3.8 billion was immediately withdrawn from the exchange! $BNB
Within just 10 hours after withdrawals resumed, users transferred assets worth nearly $3.8 billion from Binance.
On one hand, Binance has resumed withdrawals and processed a large volume of transactions. On the other hand, the outflow of funds from the exchange indicates that market confidence remains shaken.
Is this a proactive measure to protect user assets, or a sign of users' waning confidence in Binance?🔴 xGOOGL/USDT Short Setup & Prediction 📉
* Current Price: $xGOOGL 282.94
* Trend: Bearish (Down)
* Signal: Short 🔻
Trade Plan:
* Entry / Current: $xGOOGL 282.94
* Target 1: $275.00
* Target 2: $265.00
* Stop Loss: $292.00
Quick Analysis:
The chart shows strong downward momentum with moving averages sloping lower. Expect price to test support near $275.00. A break below that level opens the door for a deeper drop toward $265.00. Manage your risk tightly! 🚀 Binance suffers a $6.3 billion hacker attack: Why didn't the market panic like it did during the FTX hack?
Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly, stated that the cryptocurrency market's reaction to the serious security incident at Binance was relatively calm.
Key points to note:
Bitcoin dropped about 5%, falling from over $80,800 to $76,500.
During the 2022 FTX collapse, $BTC dropped about 26%, from $21,000 to $15,476.
After the Binance incident, market capital outflow was considered relatively limited.
Investors continued buying during the price decline.
Coordination among industry organizations and Binance's commitment to compensation helped limit the chain reaction.
However, these two events occurred in different contexts: FTX collapsed during the 2022 bear market, while Binance currently has sufficient financial strength to cover losses.
Does this indicate that the cryptocurrency market has matured and is better able to withstand major shocks? 🔴 PEPE/USDT Short Setup & Prediction 📉
* Current Price: $PEPE 0.000045988
* Trend: Bearish Pullback
* Signal: Short 🔻
Trade Plan:
* Entry / Current: $PEPE 0.000045988
* Target 1: $0.000044000
* Target 2: $0.000042500
* Stop Loss: $0.000048500
Quick Analysis:
The chart shows a sharp drop from recent highs with strong red candles breaking below short-term moving averages. Expect the price to test support near $0.000044000. A break below that level can push it down toward $0.000042500. $SNDK SanDisk (SNDK) reported a 378% year-over-year surge in Q1 revenue, while its Q2 guidance exceeded market expectations; the company also announced a 1-for-8 stock split plan, with shares expected to trade at the split price starting November 20. Despite these favorable developments, the stock still plunged 13.47% at the close on October 30. Prior to this, SanDisk's gains for the year had nearly reached 460%, while storage sector peers like Micron and Western Digital also weakened. The core market debate now centers on whether the high growth expectations for the storage sector are fully priced in and if future profitability can support the current elevated stock price.
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注