Orbit Post Sitemap
Tonight, the most eye-catching thing isn't the cryptocurrency prices, but the plunge in stock index futures first.
A single U.S. Senate seat caused Nasdaq 100 futures to drop 2.18% and Dow futures to fall 1.24%. Democratic candidate James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton to take this Texas seat — the first time since 1988.
Why does a state-level seat have such a big impact? Texas is not an ordinary state; it is one of the most reliable Republican strongholds and a bellwether for energy, taxation, and regulatory policies. A flip in this seat signals to the market not just a "change in personnel," but that the "original policy foundation is loosening." The difference in Senate seats directly affects whether subsequent legislation can be pushed forward.
Therefore, the sell-off happened first in futures, not spot markets. Futures amplify sentiment; institutions don't have time to adjust their holdings, so they hedge first on the stock indices. $BTC has no independence in this environment; its correlation with the Nasdaq has remained unbroken over the past two years. $ETH has an even higher beta, and $SOL even more so. The more volatile the asset, the more likely it is to be converted to cash first.
What really deserves attention is the rhythm. Pricing in policy uncertainty usually isn't done all at once but is added in batches as subsequent news arrives. Tonight's 2.18% drop may be just the first installment; if the Senate agenda truly shifts, the discount on risk assets will have further to go.
What we need to do now is not guess the bottom but watch the trading volume after the U.S. stock market opens. Interest rates haven't risen a bit, but money has become harder to borrow.
The Federal Reserve met on October 28, and the interest rate remains at 3.75% to 4%.
The rate hasn't moved.
But banks have started to be selective with customers.
On November 2, the Federal Reserve sent a questionnaire to 50 banks.
12 said they tightened lending, 1 said they loosened.
One in four.
All five categories of borrowers faced tightening.
What was once borrowable is now not.
When money is hard to get, people sell the easiest assets first.
Bitcoin can be sold 24/7.
Those urgently needing cash sell it first.
In the past month, Bitcoin dropped 12%.
For the past two years, everyone waited for rate cuts, thinking more money would come with cuts.
Now rates haven't dropped, but money has decreased.
The shortage is at the bank approval stage.
If banks are willing to lend, money is abundant, and crypto prices rise.
If banks are unwilling to lend, money is scarce, and crypto falls first.
So this round of decline isn't entirely the fault of crypto itself.
It's money that first became scarce on the bank side.
$BTCOn the night of the general election vote count, Bitcoin was the first to falter: it fell below $77,000 in early trading, currently around $76,323.
According to BusinessToday on November 4, Bitcoin once dropped to $76,873 in early trading, a decline of about 1.2%.
The trigger was the preliminary results of the U.S. midterm elections, with the market worried that a change in Congress would slow down crypto legislation like the CLARITY Act.
I think the election is just an excuse; the real pressure is solid money fleeing.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw a combined net outflow of about $1.3 billion over two days, plus the aftershocks of Binance's $6.3 billion theft case—confidence shatters faster than prices fall.
I've marked the key levels clearly for you: watch $77,982 above; if it can't reclaim this, the weakness remains.
Below, watch $76,247; if it breaks here, it's not a correction but the start of a new round of bottom testing.
This is not a trading call, just putting the harsh truth upfront: no volume, no confidence, don't rush to catch a falling knife.
Do you think the election results are just short-term noise, or will they really rewrite the pace of crypto legislation?
$BTC $ETH
#USMidtermElections #Bitcoin$OKB fell instead of rising after a compliance-friendly result, directly forming a three-day consecutive decline, with daily trading volume shrinking to two to three million USD. This kind of low-volume downward trend is the most fatal; the order book depth is shallow, and once the market drops, even a little selling pressure can break the support level. The underlying value capture is also broken, and relying solely on hype news can't drive real money.The index looks okay today, but the actual feeling is completely different.
The A-share ChiNext Index surged then fell back, with physical AI and robotics concepts bustling. Suochen Technology hit the 20% daily limit, Dasheng Culture achieved a three-day limit, but the half-day turnover was 67.5 billion less than yesterday, and over 3,700 stocks were down. The hotspots rotate faster than a fan, and those chasing are basically standing by.
The US stock market is also divided: the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, Nvidia gained 2.29% reclaiming the global No.1 market cap, but Apple dropped nearly 2 points due to storage chip cost pressure, Tesla was also down, and the Dow Jones actually closed lower.
The crypto side is even more direct: $BTC broke a new low again in the afternoon, Binance spot hit 76388, $ETH barely held around 2250. In the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated $338 million, with long positions accounting for $265 million. Contract positions are adding while falling; this structure makes it really hard to have a decent rebound.
The index is rising, money is shrinking, and the cost of chasing highs is much greater than holding.$ZK is trash! Over a million dollars worth is about to be unlocked, probably going to crash hard. Don't touch shitcoins, stick to mainstream coins instead#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ The pursuit of certainty and uncertainty almost completely distinguishes the old traders from the young traders. Obviously, the old traders tend to make trades with certainty, while the young traders often seek excitement and prefer uncertainty. Take $BTC as an example: what does certainty mean? The simplest is that after a major event is announced, it is called certainty.
How to understand this is also very simple. For example, when inflation data is released on a certain day, old traders, in order to reduce uncertainty and volatility, often close their positions in advance, then observe the trend, and after the data is made public, rebuild positions or make trades. They are enthusiastic about $BTC, and all of the above is about pursuing the greatest possible certainty. The most certain coin paired with a more certain market.
Young traders are exactly the opposite. They hardly want to miss any opportunity with volatility, often betting on the direction before a major event starts, which is fate deciding life and death, and fortune is in the heavens. If they are right, they call themselves genius traders; if wrong, it’s all the manipulative whales harvesting.
This is also why old traders are more adept in this market. They don’t focus their attention on any single event, just wait for certainty to arrive, and make trades that make themselves comfortable.
I have reviewed my trades over the past few years. I always slowly build up $BTC positions during times of certainty, but there is always a moment when a wicked thought arises, then I bet on an uncertain market, until I go to zero!
How I wish I could also become one of those steady old traders, making trades I can hold onto!
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ This week's market focus has shifted from the crypto space to AI earnings reports 📊. The three major cloud providers' Q3 reports all send the same signal: revenue is still growing, but free cash flow is being consumed by capital expenditures 💸. On-chain US stock contracts have already priced in this expectation in advance.
$xINTC Intel took the lead in facing pressure ⚠️, with earnings falling short of expectations, marking the worst single-day performance in fifty years. The AI dividend is not shared by everyone; laggards are quickly punished by capital.
$xMU Micron's on-chain perpetual contract reported 907, higher than Friday's after-hours 889 📈; during the storage price increase cycle, capital is clearly moving forward. $AMD on-chain reported 513, also higher than after-hours, but its core depends on the proportion of data center revenue, so earnings week volatility may be amplified 🎢.
$xNVDA Nvidia's on-chain price is 204.8, almost matching the after-hours price, with no new expectations seen; the market chooses to wait for earnings to reprice ⏳.
On-chain quotes can reflect Monday's sentiment in advance, but before the official earnings release, all positions still have room for withdrawal 🔄.Seeing large long position alerts, many people treat them as bullish votes. My first reaction, however, is: don’t label the address as "confident" just yet; a single transaction amount can be misleading.
This time, Core Trader 02 opened a long on $PLTR with 10x leverage, with a notional value of about $121,900. My judgment is that this alert proves it has increased its long exposure, but it’s not enough to prove an overall bullish stance.
Thinking the other way around, there are two reasons: dividing the notional value by leverage, the initial margin is about $12,200, so you can’t interpret the $120,000 as all real money at stake; if it has shorts elsewhere, this long position might be used for hedging. This is just my speculation, as the data doesn’t provide other positions, so you can’t treat a single leg as the whole picture.
I would first look for portfolio information before discussing direction. I welcome those with opposing views to debate: based solely on this long position, would you see it as a bullish signal, or do you need to see other positions to judge?Some believe that relying solely on historical market trends to predict the future is like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword—it may not accurately reflect the current market environment. However, I believe historical data still holds significant reference value. The essence of trading has never been about predicting the future, but about finding opportunities with higher probabilities of success. No one can accurately determine whether BTC will definitely rise or fall next, nor can anyone precisely predict the magnitude of the price movement. Whether institutions, analysts, or market influencers with millions of followers, none can be 100% correct. Truly mature traders do not blindly trust anyone's opinion; instead, they continuously adjust their probability assessments based on historical cycles, price structures, capital flows, and the macro environment. Recently, the market has shown some signals worth caution: * ETF capital flows: The inflow and outflow of US spot BTC ETF funds have repeatedly switched, and institutional demand has yet to form a sustained and consistent direction. * On-chain data: Glassnode data shows that selling pressure has somewhat eased, but spot and ETF buying remain insufficient. * Key price zones: $80,000–$82,000 has become a support area of market focus, while the $88,000–$90,000 range faces obvious resistance. The Block +1 Therefore, I will not short immediately just because a major influencer is bearish, nor will I blindly chase longs just because the market rebounds. Historical patterns are not guarantees of the future, but they help us identify risks and understand cycles. The market has no absolute answers, only constant change 🔍$83.5, this “proposed average price” made me pause: can it be directly taken as the institution's buying cost? When I analyze these kinds of clues, my biggest fear is mistaking the transfer price as the ledger base price, and then the subsequent profit story is calculated accordingly.
An interesting detail here: according to PANews quoting Ai Yi's monitoring, a16z-related entities previously withdrew $HYPE from exchanges and market makers, and recently recharged exchanges. The profit estimates given in the report come with the premise of "if sold." What can be confirmed here is that the material reports the flow of funds, but it cannot confirm actual transactions or acquisition costs, nor can it be directly equated with a16z's own investment decisions.
My judgment is that this average price is overestimated as a reference for the "institutional cost line." Withdrawals are not proof of purchase, and coins transferred out by market makers cannot have their costs calculated solely based on the received price. This is my speculation: if these transfers involve inventory allocation, then the recent recharge may have liquidity management motives, and explaining it solely as profit realization is too narrow.
Let's not rush to conclusions. I will continue to monitor whether the source of this batch of coins can correspond to verifiable acquisition records. What do you think, to recognize $83.5 as the cost, what is most lacking: transaction records or market maker delivery evidence? Let's keep an eye on the follow-up and see whose speculation is closer.Midterm elections are gradually being counted, and the data so far shows the Democrats leading. At this stage of the market, the hardest part is not judging the direction but allocating positions. Everyone can see the big picture; the difference lies in who is stronger or weaker. I've reordered the rankings of the three mainstreams I hold.
$BTC has been consolidating with low volume between 76,387 and 78,064 in the past 24 hours, with only 10,516 coins traded. The fear and greed index has returned to 34, sentiment is recovering but no one is willing to add positions.
$ETH is relatively strong; ETH/BTC has risen to 0.0294, outperforming by nearly half a percent in a day. The staking queue is full, the exit queue is empty, so the chips are locked up.
$ZEC is the most independent, having bounced off around 1,250 without losing the 1,200 level. Governance turmoil has caused nearly 100,000 coins to exit free circulation, so supply has truly decreased. The rule in a low-volume environment: the strong don’t necessarily rise, but the weak will definitely fall first.
My BTC position is already at 60%, leaving some for potential midterm election downside; ETH is my flexible position; 1,200 is the lifeline for my ZEC holdings—no movement if it doesn’t break.
Rankings are set, now it’s up to patience.Cousin's Diary: November 4, 2026, 11:48
BTC:57995 ETH: 2245
Core market signal: Bulls are still "holding firm" amid the downtrend
$BTC is no longer "testing 76000" but has fallen below it. More importantly, the position structure: a certain address holds long positions in BTC, ETH, etc., with a total value of about $101 million, and the 30x BTC long position is only $398.7 away from the liquidation price. The 15x ETH long position is only $86.14 away from liquidation. In the past day, at least 11 accounts have single-account liquidations exceeding one million, totaling $30,459,300, with longs accounting for 84.76%. Prices are falling, but leveraged longs have not exited on a large scale, which itself signals that the downtrend has not yet been fully cleared.
$ETH's 2,241 daily low (Binance data) has approached below 2,250; near-term buy-side depth (Binance spot buy orders exceed sell orders by about $1.96 million) provides local resistance, but given BTC's breakdown, it is very difficult for $ETH to stabilize independently.
Macro: The election is today's biggest unpriced variable
If the Democrats win both chambers by a large margin, Senator Warren may take control of the Senate Banking Committee. TD Cowen directly characterizes this as "the most unfavorable election outcome for cryptocurrency." The market has partially priced this in, but marginal changes during the result finalization process could still trigger short-term moves.
Risk warning: The above is based on data compiled from OKX, Binance, and public markets as of November 4, 2026. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile.$AXIS technology is still under development and has no practical application. The community financing cost in September was 0.1. Whether internal personnel are selling large amounts to harvest is unclear; externally, it is difficult to have such large funds. Consolidating below 0.1 is its true value.Cambridge Report Sentences BTC to a "Suspended Death Sentence"
But the Real "Lifeline" Lies Beyond the Code
— Interpretation and Reflection on the Cambridge University BTC Network Security Report
The Cambridge Alternative Finance Center released a report in October 2026 titled "Paying for Bitcoin's Future: How to Cover Security Costs as Block Subsidies Fade." Simply put: The days when Bitcoin relied on "new coin rewards" to incentivize miners to maintain the network are counting down; the transaction fees originally expected to take over simply can't keep up.
1. The Halving Cycle Gradually Amplifies the Problem
Bitcoin halves miners' new coin rewards approximately every four years until they eventually reach zero. The protocol design hopes that transaction fees will gradually replace the subsidy, but Cambridge's data is stark: as of October 2026, transaction fees accounted for only 0.67% of miners' total revenue over the past 90 days, and for the vast majority of history, it has been below 5%; fee volatility is 11.7 times that of price volatility. The report also points out that to maintain the current subsidy’s USD value through fees alone, the coin price must increase about 19% annually. This is not short-term fluctuation but a structural gap: subsidies are shrinking, and fees cannot catch up.
2. The Real Danger Is That Attacks Become Cheaper
Many believe the cost of a 51% attack is tied to Bitcoin’s market cap, which is a misconception. The Cambridge report clarifies: attack costs mainly follow miners' total revenue (subsidy + fees), not market cap. When miner revenue drops → hash rate drops → attack threshold drops accordingly. Currently, launching sustained attacks with new hardware still requires billions of dollars, a figure that still deters most players today. But the trend is dangerous: as subsidies continue to decrease, attack costs will keep falling. Some analyses suggest that within two to three halving cycles, costs could drop to levels that are "economically feasible" for certain organizations or even countries. Once below that threshold, double-spend attacks, exchange deposit chain reorgs, and settlement disruptions will no longer be theoretical. Bitcoin is now the underlying asset for ETFs, reserve asset for listed companies, and collateral for regulated loans; a successful network attack would ripple through these channels into traditional finance.
3. Why "Changing the Code" Is Not a Viable Solution
Fee market cultivation: data shows 0.67% and extreme volatility, unable to sustain a stable security budget. Tail issuance—permanently retaining small subsidies: requires a hard fork to change the 21 million supply cap, a consensus almost religiously held by the community, making governance-level approval nearly impossible. Reserve pools and fee smoothing: can mitigate volatility but cannot incrementally supplement miner revenue. Cambridge’s own recommendations are cautious: enhance miner control over block templates, increase transparency, and incorporate security budgets into ongoing monitoring. It is a monitoring framework, not a ready-made prescription. In other words, there is no painless solution at the protocol layer; the 21 million cap cannot be touched.
4. Under the "No Code Change" Hard Constraint, Why NAT Fits Best
NAT (DMT-NAT) enters exactly at the reality of "code cannot be changed." The mechanism is simple: when miners mine a Bitcoin block, the same block, same hash power, and same address simultaneously produce a NAT. No need to change the Bitcoin protocol, no hard fork vote, and miners don’t need to switch mining machines. F2Pool and SpiderPool have already launched same-block dual mining, giving miners an additional layer of NAT income beyond BTC rewards. The key is that the money flows to the miner who mined that block, bound to hash power, not to a foundation or project party. When NAT reaches sufficient market value, miners’ total income will no longer be solely determined by the halving curve but supplemented by a market-priced source. Currently, NAT’s per-block output corresponds to about $50 in value, with a total market cap around $50 million, making it one of the largest companion assets in the Bitcoin ecosystem. But honesty is necessary: it is still a long way from materially impacting the security budget. Some estimates suggest that NAT’s per-block value needs to reach the $50,000 level (corresponding to a $50 billion market cap) to significantly cover miner costs and support hash rate retention. This is not an overnight switch but a process requiring expanding consensus. Among options that meet the three conditions of "no protocol change, real mining pools already deployed, and directly linking miner interests with network security," NAT is currently the most fitting incremental solution.
5. The Global Consensus Significance of NAT: Turning Protocol Challenges into Market Choices
Bitcoin’s security crisis is essentially an incentive structure problem: miners need reasons to protect the network, and the only reason the protocol can provide—new coins—is diminishing. Hard forks to change the protocol seek answers at the rules level but hit a consensus wall. NAT takes another path: outside the rules, it uses the market to create a second reason for miners. Global miners accept NAT not because the protocol mandates it, but because hash power is already running, and receiving an extra output costs nothing extra; global holders price NAT not because Cambridge recommends it, but because it creates an asset that motivates miners to stay, producing positive externalities for every Bitcoin holder. As mainstream mining pools join and more hash power simultaneously confirms BTC and NAT on the same block, "NAT as miners’ second income source" shifts from narrative to a fact being validated by hash power. Bitcoin ledger security depends on hash power, and hash power depends on income. Whoever pays miners effectively participates in securing the chain. Cambridge exposed the crisis; NAT offers a bottom-up, no-code-change incremental path. Whether it grows depends on the market, but the direction of "giving miners a second income curve" is already the direction hash power is voting with its actions.Only 2 days left for the ZEC upgrade, but the price suddenly plunges! $2 billion in contract transactions, who is running away early?
On November 3rd, ZEC dropped to $1156, a 24-hour decline of 5.64%, with a high of $1284 and a low of $1126.
In just one day, the price difference between high and low was nearly $158. The NU7 upgrade hasn't been implemented yet, but the market has already started to react.
① The positive outlook remains, but the price couldn't hold up first
Zcash officially confirmed that NU7 is expected to activate around November 5th, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, significantly speeding up transaction confirmations.
The technical upgrade indeed has value, but the news has been public for a while. Whether the price can continue to rise depends on whether new funds come in to take over.
② Contract data shows warning signs
24-hour contract transaction volume is about $2.008 billion.
The 4-hour level open interest rose from 419,300 to 437,200 coins, an increase of about 4.3%.
Price fell sharply, but open interest increased.
This indicates that leveraged positions did not fully exit with the decline; instead, new positions accumulated.
The latest funding rate is about +0.01%, with longs still paying.
③ Trading direction: bearish, waiting for a rebound
📉 Direction: short-term bearish
$1180–$1210: rebound observation zone
$1125: first downside target
$1080: second downside target
$1235: bearish invalidation reference First, let's cool down a bit and not directly translate "recharging exchanges" as "institutions dumping," but I also won't ignore the risks. PANews, citing on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, reports that an a16z-related entity has recharged 32,862 $HYPE tokens to exchanges again, with a cumulative transfer of HYPE worth $15.02 million over the past five days. My judgment leans short-term bearish; the impact mainly lies in potential supply and holder sentiment, but it’s not yet at the level of confirming a large-scale retreat.
I'm focusing on two points. First, when coins move from an address into an exchange, they are closer to being sellable. If they are sold afterward, buy-side support is needed to absorb them, so holders have reason to be cautious. Second, transferring in does not equal a transaction. The estimated $1.08 million profit mentioned in the material is conditional on "if sold." Taking this condition as already realized and then deducing that institutions are collectively bearish skips two steps.
Of course, those who believe the impact is limited might also be right. If we later see actual sales and prices and absorption remain stable, I will reduce my concern about this potential selling pressure; conversely, if recharging continues accompanied by weakening absorption, I will be more cautious. My habit is to first verify whether selling pressure has materialized and not to write the market’s outcome based on a single on-chain transfer.$BTC If the Democratic Party wins in the U.S. midterm elections, especially taking control of the House of Representatives or even the Senate, it could be a short-term negative for the cryptocurrency market. Previously, the Trump administration actively promoted the U.S. as a global crypto hub, with market expectations for SEC regulatory easing, advancement of crypto market structure bills like the CLARITY Act, and clearer regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, DeFi, and RWA sectors. If the Democrats control Congress, they may intensify scrutiny of the Trump administration's crypto policies and impose stricter requirements on regulation, consumer protection, and conflicts of interest, causing delays in the progress of related bills and postponing the policy benefits the market had anticipated. Bitcoin may face short-term pressure from investor profit-taking, ETF outflows, and leveraged long liquidations, while altcoins, being riskier, could experience more pronounced impacts. However, a Democratic victory does not necessarily mean the crypto market will enter a bear market; Bitcoin's long-term trend still depends on Federal Reserve interest rate policies, dollar liquidity, ETF capital flows, and institutional allocation demand. If a Democratic win leads to increased fiscal policy uncertainty in the U.S., a weaker dollar, or market expectations of Fed rate cuts, it could actually provide new upward momentum for Bitcoin. Therefore, the real risk to watch is the simultaneous occurrence of a Democratic win, a stronger dollar, the Fed maintaining high interest rates, and continued BTC ETF outflows. Overall, a Democratic victory is more likely to affect regulatory expectations and short-term market sentiment in the crypto industry rather than directly altering Bitcoin's long-term value logic. $ZEC Democrats sweep 99%, $BTC falls below 76,000, no relief after bad news
At 9:44 AM today, the probability of Democrats winning both the House and Senate on Predict.fun jumped from 75.5% yesterday to 99%. The remaining 1% is Republicans holding the Senate, and 0.1% is Republicans holding all. It's basically announcing the result.
So how did Bitcoin move? No rebound; instead, it fell below 76,000. Currently at 76,286, 24-hour low is 75,736, stepping down from yesterday's low of 76,388.
Many thought "bad news priced in means good news," but the result was continued decline.
Why? Because the market fears not "Democrats winning," but "what Democrats will do after winning." Controlling both chambers means tighter crypto regulations, stablecoin bill reshuffling, SEC leadership changes, and possible tax policy increases—all concrete negatives for the crypto space, not just sentiment.
There's an even more direct factor: fiscal policy. With Democrats in power, fiscal spending may expand, U.S. Treasury yields rise, and risk assets come under pressure.
So Beichen's judgment: this is not the end of bad news, but the beginning of its realization.
In terms of trading, keep the short position at 77,500, currently up 1,200 points. If it breaks below 75,736, the next target is 75,000. The short at 2,280 ETH can also be held, targeting below 2,200!
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Latest data shows that U.S. LNG exports rebounded strongly in October to the second-highest level in history, but at the beginning of November, feed gas flow experienced a temporary decline. This pattern of "strong monthly performance with short-term fluctuations" is the core background behind the recent natural gas price battles around $2.90/MMBtu.
📊 Overall exports in October: second highest in history, Europe is the absolute main force
According to LSEG data, U.S. LNG exports in October reached 7.92 million metric tons, second only to the historical peak of 8.01 million metric tons in April this year, representing a significant month-on-month increase of about 11% from 7.12 million metric tons in September. The growth mainly came from production increases at Cheniere Energy and Venture Global, offsetting losses caused by a 12-day routine maintenance at the Cove Point terminal.
In terms of destinations, Europe's share jumped to 60%, up 8 percentage points from September; Asia's share dropped from 30% to 20%, and Latin America's share narrowed from 8% to 5%. The fundamental reason for Europe's continued expansion in purchases is the reduction of Russian pipeline gas supply and the enforcement of the EU's restrictions on short-term LNG contracts with Russia.
🔧 Feed gas flow at the beginning of November: temporary decline, but with bright spots internally
The strong monthly export volume is not contradictory to the short-term decline in feed gas flow at the beginning of November. As of the week of November 1, the U.S. LNG feed gas daily average flow was 19.3 Bcf/d, down nearly 0.4 Bcf/d from the previous week. The monthly daily average flow in October was 18.5 Bcf/d, higher than 17.9 Bcf/d in September.
The main drag on the decline came from Freeport LNG: the terminal went offline on October 26 due to a power outage, and after restarting the next day, it did not return to full capacity. On November 1, the No. 2 production line was shut down for maintenance, and current feed gas intake is below 1 Bcf/d, with both production lines not running at full capacity.
However, other terminals offset this: Golden Pass's feed gas intake rose to an average of 0.77 Bcf/d last week, breaking 0.8 Bcf/d for the first time over the weekend, with the No. 1 production line completing its ramp-up. Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 officially entered commercial operation on October 31, with the first cargo delivered to Shell. Phase 2 is expected to start operation in mid-2027, expanding total liquefaction capacity to 28 mtpa.
💎 Summary
October's export data was strong, with Europe's winter stockpiling demand as the core driver; but the early November feed gas decline reflects operational disruptions at individual terminals like Freeport, rather than a systemic deterioration in export demand. For natural gas prices, LNG exports provide important bottom support around $2.90/MMBtu, but currently are insufficient alone to reverse the downward pressure caused by a warm winter and high inventories. Key points to watch going forward include when Freeport will return to full capacity, the ramp-up pace of Golden Pass, and whether Europe will further increase purchases of U.S. spot LNG amid urgent inventory concerns.$IRYS This rebound looks pretty intimidating, but the order book is actually extremely fake.
It dropped from 0.50 to around 0.02, and during the rebound, spot funds were still net outflowing. It's obvious that the main players are using the price surge as a cover to sell off. Moreover, 80% of the tokens are still locked, FDV is five times the market cap, and all the orders above are trapped positions.
After altcoins peak, the drop really has no bottom. Don't expect any trend reversal.
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇A $100 million position is only a few hundred dollars away from liquidation.
One address has simultaneously opened long positions in BTC, ETH, HYPE, and ZEC, with a total size of $101 million and an unrealized loss of $1.725 million. It sounds okay—losing only 1.7% on a $100 million position. But the real danger isn’t the unrealized loss; it’s the remaining liquidation buffer: 30x $BTC has $398.7 left, 15x $ETH has $86.14 left, 10x $ZEC has $38.28 left, and 10x $HYPE only has $6.58 left.
The biggest loss isn’t on the highest leverage. $HYPE is only 10x leverage with an unrealized loss of $618,000, second only to 30x $BTC’s $709,000, indicating it either dropped the hardest or was opened at the highest price.
Mechanically, the liquidation buffer isn’t linearly allocated by leverage. Leverage only determines how large a position you can open initially; what determines how long you survive is how far the market moves unilaterally after opening the position. Leverage just amplifies losses; the buffer is what keeps you alive.
What’s more worth noting is the structure: $101 million long, all four legs on the same side, no hedging. This isn’t diversification; it’s betting on the same direction four times. Once one leg is liquidated, market orders are triggered, and the remaining three legs’ buffers shrink simultaneously, causing a chain reaction.
The bigger the account, the more likely they are to use high leverage because they think they can handle it. But the liquidation line doesn’t care about your principal; it only cares how many dollars you have left before it.ETH: Price drops, Open Interest also decreases ETH around 2,293 USD in the CoinDesk snapshot on 11/03. The report notes ETH Futures OI down 2.18%, while the price fell about 0.83% in the same analysis. Assessment: OI falling along with price usually reflects position closing, not enough to conclude that Shorts are dominating. Need to observe Spot price and volume to confirm. Do you prefer ETH Spot or Futures when the market is volatile? $ETH #ETH #Ethereum #OpenInterestToday's market, those with slightly heavier leverage got taken out again.
In the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated $338 million, with long positions accounting for $265 million, $BTC liquidations at $106 million, and $ETH liquidations over $48 million.
BTC broke a new low again around 2 PM, Binance spot hit 76388, now hovering around 76500, down 2% in 24 hours.
The key is that contract open interest rose from 7.46 billion to 7.65 billion, with more added on every drop; with this structure, it's quite difficult to have a decent rebound.
The A-share market is lively but volume has shrunk sharply, losing 67.1 billion in the first hour, with over 3,000 stocks down.
Physical AI company Suochen Technology hit the 20% daily limit up, AI comic company Dasheng Culture had a three-day limit up, and small metal company Yunnan Germanium also hit the limit up, but the hotspots rotate like a fan, chasing in likely leads to losses.
US stocks saw chip stocks lead a rebound, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor up 2.64%, Nvidia up 2.26%, but Apple dropped nearly 2%, Tesla also in the red.
The seven giants have already split internally.
Money is still moving, just moving faster and faster,
it's more comfortable to squat and wait than to chase.You went long on Bitcoin, right? You definitely chased the longs last night, and now everyone is hoping for a Republican comeback.
The bulls' faces are swollen from getting hit, yet they still pretend to be strong. Those who chased Bitcoin longs at 77,000-78,000 last night are now all stuck like fools. Even so, everyone is still going long, still on the path of going long. Fortunately, yesterday I shifted my focus from Bitcoin to crude oil. Shorting crude oil at 98 was the right call.
Decided to short CL WTI crude oil at 98 on the rebound during the downtrend.
1. The Middle East premium is showing signs of fading because there’s no expectation of conflict escalation anymore. The focus is on peace talks, negotiating terms between parties. At times like this, oil prices tend to fall.
2. Oil prices will be suppressed before the election. Trump has the obligation to stabilize oil prices to appease voters. News about Russian diesel and Venezuelan crude is also aimed at calming oil prices. This is basically news to suppress further oil price increases.
3. Based on this, I’ve been looking for opportunities to short crude oil: shorted from 103 to 101, then again to 98, now looking at 92. The previous rise in oil prices has basically priced in most of the risk premium. When the time is right, prices will naturally fall. I’m holding the short at 98.
Bitcoin is still confused now, with its pricing too dependent on the midterm elections.
1. The House is basically lost now, which aligns with market expectations. But when the news of the loss came out, it still broke below 76,000, showing that eyes are glued to the voting results.
2. Everyone is now hoping the Republicans can hold the Senate. If they do, it’s a small blessing in disguise. You can open a beer to celebrate, and Bitcoin might rebound a bit.
3. Otherwise, you can’t just wait for the Democrats to say: "We were wrong before, we should trust crypto, we will work on building crypto security, compliance, and prevent some families from manipulating it for profiteering, right?"
Back to Bitcoin’s trend:
Currently, Bitcoin is priced at 76,170. If you want to trade, aggressively go long. The sentiment will warm up during the day, and the price will recover and rebound. Just go long until 76,800 then stop, with a stop loss at 75,980.
Longs can only be short-term, not long-term. The trend these days has shown slow rises and sharp drops, with bears dominating.$ZEC
I'm not chasing ZEC this round. That spike to 1245 at 5 AM, now down to 1173, a drop of nearly six percent from the high, but still up over three percent in 24 hours. It looks strong, but the early session momentum has already eased.
In the past hour, I was watching the volume; 7.58 million is today's largest block, with the price closing at 1173, lower than the open. Such a large volume without a price increase indicates someone is selling into the hype.
Interestingly, the fee rate is still hanging at +0.01%, with open interest at 143 million USD unchanged. The bulls haven't given up, and the bears haven't dared to push up; both sides are waiting for the other to make the first move.
I won't touch this position. If I'm going to wait, I'll wait for the day the fee rate turns negative—when the bulls start to flee but the price can still hold—that's when I recognize the position. Entering now means taking the goods from those distributing.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
The continuous growth of stablecoin volume is the foundation of Circle, but under the current interest rate environment and channel structure, this growth is difficult to quickly and proportionally convert into substantial profits. Whether Circle can truly break the "stablecoin paradox" depends on whether its non-interest income (such as payment network fees) can accelerate its rise and successfully reduce reliance on traditional distribution channels.According to relevant observation data from CME, the market currently prices the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision leaning towards a rate hike. Data shows the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged in December is 21.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike reaches 78.9%. Looking further ahead to January next year, the scenario distribution further diverges: the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged is only 15.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 63.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 21.8%. Interest rate expectations often influence the funding sentiment in the crypto market, but it is important to note that CME's probability data only represents the current market trading expectations and is not a guaranteed policy outcome. Subsequent changes in key data such as inflation and employment can quickly alter these probability expectations. When analyzing the market, one should not rely solely on a single rate hike probability for directional judgment but must continuously track Federal Reserve officials' statements and changes in core economic indicators.BTC / ETH Daily Review
$BTC｜77237
Yesterday, the bottom consolidation above 76000 was fully confirmed. Overnight, US stocks, semiconductors, and AMD earnings reports boosted risk sentiment, pushing BTC up near 79,000.
24-hour total liquidations across the network were only 174 million, with more than half from long position closures, indicating a retreat of bears rather than panic selling. The early morning quick retracement of gains suggests the rebound is driven by spillover funds from the stock market, not institutional entry.
Key divergence:
In previous midterm elections, BTC was always below the 200-day moving average; this year, it is standing 5%+ above the moving average against the trend.
However, ETFs continue to see large outflows, with institutional buying completely absent.
Short-term strategy:
Continue to consolidate and bottom above 76000.
Hold above 78200 → target 80000.
Break below 76000 → target 75000.
Tonight's ADP, ISM, and Friday's Nonfarm Payroll data form an intensive window; avoid leverage throughout.
Intraday range: 76800–77900｜Stop loss: 76400
$ETH｜2269
Support at 2250 has held for 5 consecutive days, showing slight resistance to decline but weak follow-through compared to BTC.
Core pressure comes from capital flow:
ETH spot ETFs have had net outflows for 6 consecutive days, totaling 1.18 billion in October. Institutions continue redeeming, fully suppressing market elasticity.
Key levels:
Hold above 2317 → recovery begins, target 2380.
Break below 2174 → straight to 2100.
As long as ETFs do not stop bleeding, ETH will have no independent rally and will follow the overall market volatility.
Intraday range: 2240–2300｜Stop loss: 2215 The election night isn't over yet, but futures have already turned sour.
The market was doing well during the day, with the Nasdaq even up 0.83%. Once the polls opened, the momentum for a Democratic sweep became increasingly clear, with Nasdaq futures plunging about 2% and S&P futures down about 1.2%.
In prediction markets, the probability of a Democratic sweep of both chambers has been pushed to around 99%, though it's not officially announced yet.
BTC didn't escape either, sliding to around $76,000. I think until the vote count settles, risk assets will cool off first.🗳️
$BTC BTC is at 76,500, the US is still counting votes after the election, and the market has been stuck in a small box between 76,300 and 78,700 these past two days, unable to go up or down.
Everyone is asking how things will move after the election. I’ve summarized that the market is actually waiting for four things.
First, the boot drops on $BTC. No matter who wins, once the election is over, the biggest uncertainty is gone. Since 1950, in every midterm election year, the S&P has never fallen; it has averaged a gain of over 15%. What money fears is not bad news, but uncertainty.
Second, how Congress is divided. This is more critical than who wins. If each side controls one chamber, no major policies can be pushed through, which sounds frustrating, but the market actually feels reassured because the rules won’t change drastically. If one side takes full control, policies will move quickly, both good and bad, causing greater volatility.
Third, matters within the crypto space itself. Regulatory bills must pass through Congress, so once the congressional makeup is set, there’s clarity on when these bills might be enacted and in which direction they will go. This is what the crypto community should really focus on.
Fourth, and what I think is the most critical: the interest rate hike in December. The market currently prices in an 85% chance of a hike. The election is just a gust of wind, but interest rates are the heavy stone pressing down continuously. No matter how positive the election outcome, if the rate hike comes, money will still retract.
So don’t expect an immediate takeoff after the election. In the short term, it will likely fluctuate back and forth as this gust of wind is digested. Looking ahead two to three months, the post-election period is more like a chance to slowly accumulate chips, not a time to chase gains.
$BTC $ETH #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 Since 2010, Bitcoin's average median return within 12 months after each U.S. midterm election has been 63%. Specifically, BTC rose 36.8% within 12 months after the 2014 midterm election, 45.8% after 2018, and 80.8% after 2022. As the 2026 midterm election approaches, investors are watching to see if this pattern will repeat. However, CryptoQuant warns that this pattern may reflect Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle rather than election outcomes. Midterm elections occur every four years, which coincides closely in timing with Bitcoin's halving cycle. For example, the 2022 midterm election was only a few months after the May 2020 halving, and the post-election period happened to be in a historically bullish cycle phase. Logic Behind the Correlation The apparent relationship between midterm elections and Bitcoin returns is a classic spurious correlation. Both events follow a four-year cycle, but the driving factors are completely different. Bitcoin halving reduces new supply and has historically triggered bull markets 12-18 months later. Midterm elections often lead to political gridlock, which some believe benefits risk assets, but there is little empirical evidence specifically for cryptocurrencies. More importantly, CryptoQuant points out that 2026 is showing a different trend. The current cycle is unusual, with Bitcoin reaching all-time highs before the halving and relatively mild gains afterward. Macro factors such as Federal Reserve policy, ETF capital flows, and regulatory developments are playing a larger role than before. Implications for Investors For traders, midterm #美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？
The boss has something to say
The US-Iran talks made no breakthrough, yet oil prices plunged more than 7% in a single day. Brent and WTI closed down 7.63% and 7.36% respectively, with Brent further dropping to $103.60 on the 3rd.
Why such a sharp drop? Because the market is trading on the "expectation of navigation resumption." Iran's Supreme Leader authorized negotiations and even proposed a "two-day plan," combined with Trump's statement that there is no immediate plan to resume large-scale military strikes, funds directly priced this as positive news.
I think this is a typical case of "buying the expectation." The comment from Pharaoh in the comment section is spot on: the acceleration is real, but the "two days" is a condition Iran set for the US, not a guarantee. Iran clearly demands the US first lift the blockade, sanctions, and release assets. As long as these two hard conditions are not met, the Strait could cause trouble at any time.
The short-term plunge in oil prices can temporarily ease inflation expectations but also squeezes out the geopolitical risk premium. For the Federal Reserve, this is a breather.
BTC is still fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000. Let's see if it can hold above 80,000; if not, expect a deeper pullback. Resistance is between 84,000 and 85,000. Don't chase the rise or kill the dip; set your stop-loss orders properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Democratic ballots lead, U.S. stocks under pressure, how much longer can the crypto market hold?
The main pressure in today's market comes from the U.S. midterm elections. Currently, the Democratic Party is making progress in several key districts, raising expectations of taking the House of Representatives, while the Senate results remain uncertain. The market is worried about stricter regulations on AI and tech giants afterward. U.S. stock futures responded with declines; Nasdaq futures fell about 1.8% at one point, and S&P 500 futures dropped about 0.8%.
This risk sentiment is also transmitting to the crypto market. BTC is currently fluctuating around $76,000, ETH has returned to around $2,240, with a weak 4-hour trend and limited rebound strength. Regarding ETFs, the BTC spot ETF previously saw a single-day net outflow of about $399 million, and the ETH ETF has had net outflows for seven consecutive trading days, totaling about $582 million. Institutional funds have not yet shown obvious inflows.
The futures market also warrants caution: BTC and ETH long accounts still account for nearly 70%, and funding rates remain positive, indicating that bullish sentiment in the market has not completely faded. If prices continue to decline, crowded long positions may still trigger a chain of stop-losses.
On the macro side, market expectations for a rapid Fed rate cut remain limited, and the December rate decision is still uncertain. Election results, rate expectations, and capital flows are jointly influencing the performance of risk assets.
Yan Yan believes it’s best not to rush to bottom-fish in the short term. Focus on BTC around $75,700 and ETH near $2,225;
Do you think the Democrats continuing to lead will cause further declines in U.S. stocks and crypto, or will there be a rebound after the negative news settles?$HYPE Binance was hacked, why are they dumping HYPE?
Since October 30, the heavy selling pressure on $HYPE:
10/30–31: a16z-related addresses transferred 118,000 tokens at an average price of 90.72 to market makers like Wintermute, Galaxy, Cumberland.
During these 3 days: FalconX cumulatively transferred about 350,000 tokens to Coinbase, approximately $30.57 million.
11/4: suspected a16z addresses deposited about 32,900 tokens to Gate, OKX, Bybit.
I previously opened a hedged short position at an average price of 82.4, which is starting to work; I reduced my position when it was above 90, so all operations were pre-announced and shared live, related judgments and operation records can be found in the citations.
This so-called big trader speculation is actually institutions continuously distributing, and I have long understood this. You can check my latest post on HYPE’s range for specific judgments; just scroll down the citations to find it.
HYPE’s technicals have started to look difficult; last week’s positive news was completely wiped out technically. I maintain my previous judgment to continue shorting.
These funds dumping the market means the capital behind them is leaving crypto. This is why Binance was hacked and HYPE was dumped; it’s part of the aftershocks. Transferring to market makers is just consignment selling.
This operation is still an excellent prediction 🫶Crude Oil on November 4:
Recently, international oil prices have sharply corrected. The core driver is the release of geopolitical risk premium due to US-Iran negotiation news. After a rapid sharp drop in the short term, the decline has narrowed; fundamentals such as low inventory and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have formed support below. Oil prices have entered a high-level oscillation and game phase, with increasing divergence between bulls and bears.
Next, go long directly near 94, with a stop at 92.8, target 98! Only down 0.19% in 24H, compared to "breaking below 77000," I care more about this magnitude. OKX market shows BTC currently at 76999.9 USDT.
Watching the key level VS watching the decline, I lean towards the latter: integer level breaks easily trigger emotions, but this small decline alone is not enough to judge a weakening trend. I think the emotional impact of this news is greater than the trend signal. Which side are you on: more concerned about losing 77000, or how much it actually fell in 24H? The Democratic Party is leading in the polls, and the market is starting to get nervous!
Today, the U.S. midterm elections have become the biggest variable for the market. Currently, the Democrats have made progress in several key districts, raising expectations that control of the House of Representatives may change hands, while the Senate results remain uncertain.
After the news broke, U.S. stock futures have already declined, with Nasdaq futures dropping about 1.8% at one point, and S&P 500 futures down about 0.8%. If the Democrats ultimately secure more seats, the market may worry that tech giants and the AI industry will face stricter regulations, causing short-term pressure on U.S. tech stocks and the broader market.
The crypto space should also take note: as risk appetite in U.S. stocks declines, this may further transmit to BTC and altcoins.
Tonight, attention should also be paid to the U.S. ADP employment data and ISM services PMI, which may continue to influence market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
I believe that before the election results are finalized, market volatility may increase, so it’s best not to blindly chase gains for now.
What do you think? With the Democrats leading, how do you expect the market to move next?
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Optimism ($OP)
Ethereum needs scaling solutions that developers can actually build on! ⚡
Optimism ($OP) is an Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem using optimistic rollup technology. Its OP Stack also provides infrastructure for developers building Ethereum-compatible networks.
The bigger vision is an interconnected ecosystem of blockchain networks with shared technology. Will Layer 2 infrastructure become the foundation of mainstream Ethereum adoption?SOL closed 6,856 positions with a 100% win rate, netting a profit of 1.39 million dollars. If you rush to blindly copy this data with one click, you will most likely become the next victim. After casually reviewing all his transactions on HyperTrend, it was found that it is impossible to replicate: These 6,856 profitable closed positions are actually 6,808 trades all concentrated on the same day—June 8. So this is not a high-frequency strategy spread over several months, but a record of closing a single trade. He opened a short position on May 12 when SOL was above $94. Over the next 27 days, the market fluctuated back and forth, and he neither reduced nor closed the position. Instead, by continuously adding over 4,500 market sell orders, he pushed the short position size to 33,000 SOL, with a holding value close to 3 million dollars. For a whole month, he held this huge short position. Until June 8, when SOL completely broke down, falling below $64. The pre-set script executed 6,808 buy orders in one go that day to cover the position, locking in a profit of 1.36 million dollars at once. The so-called "over 6,800 trades with 100% win rate" is simply this: from start to finish, there was actually only this one short position, and he just split the 33,000 SOL into 6,800 small orders to close it. Dare to hold a 3 million dollar short position underwater for a whole month Since 1982, the U.S. midterm elections have been held 11 times.
In the year following each election, the U.S. stock market rose all 11 times, with an average increase of 13%.
Bitcoin performed even better, with an average increase of over 50%.
This time, the first night of voting saw a drop.
S&P futures turned from up to down, falling 0.6%.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.5%, and Dow futures fell 252 points.
Bitcoin followed with a slight decline.
On betting sites,
Democrats have a 90% chance to win the Senate and 97% to win the House.
What is the market afraid of?
Data centers.
The Democrats want to impose limits on data centers.
AI relies entirely on data centers to run.
If limited, AI will be slower and more expensive.
AI is the engine driving this market cycle.
If the engine shakes, the coins shake along.
In the past 11 times, the market rose, but AI wasn’t this big yet.
Now, coins don’t follow the halving or ETFs.
They follow AI.
If AI can’t get money, Bitcoin can’t get money.
$BTCThis whale first acquired 3,052 ZEC, investing nearly 3.8 million USD in spot; after establishing the spot base position, they continued to add more, opening a 2x leveraged long position corresponding to 8,000 coins, bringing the total nominal position value to 10.16 million USD.
There are several highlights in this setup:
First, the strategy combines spot with contracts, using spot as the foundation and leveraging to amplify returns, indicating strong confidence in the subsequent market trend.
Second, only 2x leverage is used, which is considered conservative in the crypto space; it doesn't look like a pure gamble but more like positioning for a trend. Some speculate that they might have gotten early access to positive news that hasn't been made public yet.
ZEC is a veteran privacy coin with usually low popularity and quiet price movements, so suddenly seeing accumulation at this scale is indeed unusual. $ZEC #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Jiang Zhuoer’s latest post reviews the logic behind a "no action" decision 📊
He stated:
Just now, it did not meet the criteria for a valid break below $76,000, so no hedge short position was opened.
What counts as a "valid break"?
He explained:
A valid break should be forceful, with a large bearish candle dropping immediately away from the $76,000 level.
But the recent situation was:
After breaking below $76,000, it hesitated and fluctuated back and forth, and then indeed bounced back up.
His conclusion:
"It seems there are many buyers stepping in," first watching for a rebound to $78,000 to $79,000.
The interesting part of this review is that he shared not a simple price prediction, but a methodology on "how to judge whether a breakout/breakdown is valid." Whether the price quickly moves away from a key level better reflects the true strength of bulls and bears than just whether it breaks or not. The hesitation around the $76,000 level also somewhat confirms that there is indeed buying support below.
$BTC $UNI UNI's chart looks top-heavy and a bit ridiculous.
Retail investors are still wildly betting on the long side, with the long-short ratio pulled up to 2.48, and leveraged longs piled higher than a mountain.
As a result, the underlying liquidity pool has shrunk by nearly 30% in a week, with basically no money left in the pool.
Without support, this kind of bloated structure, if slightly dumped, will cause slippage that breaks all retail investors' stop-loss lines, triggering a chain liquidation for sure.
#UNI
$UNI
👇The U.S. midterm elections will begin voting on November 3rd Eastern Time, corresponding to 8 AM Beijing Time on November 4th, with results being released gradually. This election does not select the president; the focus is on congressional seats: all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for re-election, and 35 seats in the Senate will be contested.
Currently, both chambers of Congress are controlled by the Republican Party, but according to Kalshi's prediction market, the situation is leaning toward the Democratic Party: the expected probability of the Democrats taking the House is 94%, and the probability of taking the Senate is 71%.
The party controlling Congress will directly determine the pace of advancing crypto-related legislation, and the strictness of regulation will change accordingly.
There is also a widely circulated observation in the market: the bottoms of Bitcoin's previous three bear markets all appeared some time after the midterm elections, with intervals of 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days from the voting day respectively. Many are curious whether history will repeat itself. $BTC $ETH #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ It's 11:30 AM, brothers, have you all ordered your takeout and are ready to switch over to watch a light drama? Hold on a moment. Seeing those green bars at 5 minutes and 15 minutes, your heart starts itching again, thinking the price has bottomed out and it's time to buy. But looking at the big cycle capital flow, you definitely want to avoid bottom fishing.
First, look at $BTC. Short-term funds are indeed flowing in, but if you extend the cycle to 30 days, the contract side has a net outflow of 11.381 billion. What does this mean? The main players are distributing at highs and are frantically retreating. Although the spot side has a slight inflow of over 70 million in 24 hours, compared to the selling pressure at the hundred-billion level, it’s barely a splash. Don’t be fooled by short-term illusions.
Next, look at $ETH. The pattern is exactly the same. The 30-day contract net outflow is 10.101 billion, and the spot side has also lost 2.8 billion. These two troubled brothers, the main players have long stopped pretending; funds are flowing out daily. If you rush in now to bottom fish, you’re just providing liquidity for the big players.
The only somewhat promising one is $SOL. Although the contract long cycle is also seeing outflows, the spot side has surprisingly had a net inflow of 29.05 million over 30 days, with 15-day and 1-week periods also positive. This indicates that some big players are quietly accumulating at the bottom. But the overall environment is unfavorable; it can’t carry the market alone and can’t stir up big waves for now.
Summary: Short-term rises are bait; long-term large outflows are the truth. The main players are all retreating, so retail investors shouldn’t be cannon fodder.
Facing this big player mass exodus, are you planning to stay out and keep safe, or stubbornly try to bottom fish?
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Seeing a publicly listed company buying coins, the common reaction is "institutional recognition, ecosystem benefits." According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Tron Inc. (Nasdaq ticker: TRON) purchased 154,403 TRON at an average price of $0.3238, totaling about $49,800.
On the other hand, I am more cautious about directly taking a company's coin purchase as evidence of ecosystem strengthening. One reason is that an increase in company holdings only shows that the purchase happened; it does not prove an increase in ordinary users' demand. Another reason is that the identity of a listed company tends to add weight to the news, but stocks and tokens are not the same type of asset, and the company's judgment cannot replace that of the token holders themselves. I think this news is more directly meaningful for "enterprise allocation" than as proof of "ecosystem growth."
Would you consider this purchase as evidence of ecosystem growth? Opposing views are welcome to debate whether there is still a missing link between the two.As of this morning (2026-11-04), the price of $XRP is approximately in the range of $1.25–$1.28, showing a slight short-term recovery but overall still in a weak zone following the sharp drop in October.
Resistance above: $1.28–$1.29; if volume increases and it holds above, then look towards $1.31 and $1.39.
Support below: $1.245–$1.25; if it breaks below, it may retest $1.20, with a further target of $1.09.
Key signals: Whether XRP can hold $1.25, whether ETF fund flows improve, and whether it can reclaim above $1.28–$1.30.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？