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CHZ, AERO, and SC have no total supply constraints, with continuous issuance, causing holders' equity to be continuously diluted.
AVAX, APT, and Ronin have capped total supplies, making scarcity the best moat for long-term assets.
AVAX supports multiple parallel subnets, with strong ecosystem incubation capabilities; APT is suited for institutional high-frequency trading; Ronin is building a dedicated public chain for gaming assets.
CHZ, AERO, and SC have an average annual inflation of about 2%–8%, with continuously increasing supply, naturally diluting value. 【Strive bought only 124 $BTC in a week, while Strategy continued to add 811】
Last week, the actions of two Bitcoin treasury companies diverged significantly: Strive spent about $10 million to buy 124 BTC, bringing its holdings to 43,124 BTC; Strategy added 811 BTC, raising its holdings to 849,327 BTC. Previously, Strive had bought 6,182 BTC in a single week, so the pace of accumulation has sharply declined, showing a clear contrast.
The source of funds explains the situation better. Strive mainly used existing cash this time and for the first time used SATS ATM financing; Strategy raised funds by selling $MSTR stock while simultaneously spending about $208 million to repurchase $STRC preferred shares, and continued to replenish its USD reserves. Both companies are leveraging capital market financing to buy coins, but Strategy’s fund management and sustained buying power are clearly stronger.
BTC closed down about 2.2% last week. After market selling pressure, the actions of the two companies indicate that institutional demand for hoarding coins remains, but the financial strength and financing pace have diverged. Strive slowing down this week does not mean a strategic shift, but if the reduction continues, catching up with the leading coin-holding companies will become increasingly difficult. At this stage, Strategy remains the frontrunner in this treasury competition.🚨🚨🚨BTC sellers continue to cut losses and exit below $80,000!
Last week saw the longest daily net realized losses since mid-August.
The loss concentration periods in August and September both formed at local lows.
If the price can hold above $75,000,
this pattern will hold again.
Then around $76,000 will become a local bottom!! $BTC $ETH $ZEC #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #Apple's new CEO receives the first report card for iPhone 18
$BTC $AAPL $SNDK On the first trading day of daylight saving time, all three major U.S. pre-market futures rose, with Nasdaq futures leading gains at about 0.8%, Dow and S&P 500 futures up approximately 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. The pre-market rebound in chip stocks and large tech stocks was the main driver. However, the sustainability after the high open should not be linearly extrapolated. Although the VIX has fallen back from Friday's intraday high, it still hovers above 19, indicating that panic sentiment has not completely dissipated. This week features midterm elections, Apple earnings, and nonfarm payrolls all arriving intensively, so capital tends to reduce directional bets before key events, making it likely that the market will face selling pressure after an initial surge at the open. At the sector level, the chip stock rebound is more of a technical correction following last week's sharp sell-off rather than a fundamental revaluation; the sharp drop in oil prices relieves some inflation pressure but also reflects demand-side concerns. Overall, the baseline scenario is a high open with oscillation and limited upside, so chasing highs requires caution, and the real directional choices will most likely wait until this week's events unfold one by one.Liquidation Data Revealed: ETH Shorts 'Slaughtered,' ZEC Catch-Up Signal Emerging?
Just finished scanning this wave of liquidation heatmaps, the conclusion is straightforward: the current market is a "cash machine" for the bulls and a "meat grinder" for the shorts.
🔥 ETH: The absolute core of the short squeeze
Looking at 1-hour data, liquidations reached 3.7 million, of which 3.3 million were shorts! That's nearly 90%. What does this mean? It means the main players are using their capital advantage to violently push prices up, specifically hunting down short-term shorts trying to "top out." As long as ETH doesn't show a massive bearish candle, this short squeeze will continue; shorts won't survive, and the uptrend won't stop.
⚡️ ZEC: The lurking catch-up altcoin
ZEC's data is interesting. On both 1-hour and 4-hour levels, short liquidations far exceed longs (393,000 vs. 77,000). This indicates ZEC is following the broader rebound, with main players testing the market by pushing prices up. But note that 24-hour data shows longs and shorts nearly balanced, meaning the overhead trapped positions are still being digested. Once ETH stabilizes, ZEC is very likely to become the next breakout point.
⚖️ BTC & SOL: Building momentum amid divergence
Compared to ETH's extremes, BTC and SOL have relatively balanced long and short liquidations. Especially SOL, where longs and shorts are almost evenly split within 1 hour. This suggests BTC and Solana are currently in a "consolidation and shakeout" phase, with main players waiting for ETH to create space before choosing a direction.
Practical Strategy
The current market sentiment is "those who follow the trend prosper, those who go against it perish" It's November again,
Actually, this is also a critical month for both bulls and bears to suffer losses
4000 points
It will rebound up to this level, then confirm the direction
But my overall outlook remains bearish!
I trust my own judgment....
If I'm wrong, growth value and experience points increase by one.
First target is 3000
Second target is 2200If the Democrats take Congress, will Musk and $SPCX be liquidated?
1. The merger won't be directly stopped, but regulatory investigations and hearings are very likely to happen. Congress only has supervisory and pressure powers and cannot directly veto mergers; the decision lies with the SEC. A lengthy review will increase merger uncertainty and suppress market speculation expectations.
2. This merger itself relies on a relaxed regulatory environment. If the Democrats gain power, they will pressure regulatory agencies, focusing on questioning conflicts of interest after the SpaceX and Tesla merger. The market fears indefinite approval delays the most; once expectations weaken, SPCX's premium will quickly fade, dragging down Tesla's valuation as well.
3. Two possible market scenarios: if only one chamber is taken, there will be a bearish pulse drop, not suitable for short selling; if both chambers are taken, it's a strong bearish signal, suitable for shorting SPCX on rebounds and avoiding long positions on Tesla at high levels.
4. Before the election, it's an expectation game with high market volatility, so avoid heavy bets. If polls favor the Democrats, short SPCX on rebounds; if Republicans hold Congress, regulatory risks ease, and the asset has rebound potential. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $TRUMP Negative news: It rose 4%, but there are still 900,000 tokens unlocking daily waiting to be sold TRUMP is now at 1.667, up 4.32% in 24 hours, reaching a high of 1.779, with a trading volume of 26 million U, ranking first in today's gainers Breaking down some numbers, about 904,000 tokens unlock daily, roughly 1.5 million U at the current price, all belonging to creators and CIC Digital 754 million tokens have already been released, accounting for 75.4% of the total supply, and on DecembDOGE, XTZ, and ZKC have no hard cap on supply, releasing new tokens every year, making their prices prone to long-term dilution and weakening.
DOT, Ronin, and SNX have a fixed total supply, with a constant stock, and over time their scarcity value will gradually become apparent.
DOT is the core hub for cross-chain interoperability; Ronin focuses on closed-loop circulation of blockchain gaming assets; SNX is the underlying infrastructure for synthetic assets and derivatives.
DOGE, XTZ, and ZKC have an annual inflation rate of about 1.8%–6%, with unlimited supply, making it difficult to maintain lasting premium.Midterm elections vote counting tonight: For the crypto market, who wins matters more than price fluctuations The U.S. midterm elections are entering the final countdown. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, and 35 Senate seats face turnover. The results will not only determine control of Congress but also directly decide whether crypto legislation will move forward or remain frozen for the next two years. Let's look at the probabilities first. Data cited from prediction markets Kalshi and TD Cowen show the Democrats have about a 90% chance of winning the House and about a 62% chance of winning the Senate. A Democratic sweep is currently the most likely scenario. But a high probability does not mean the impact is simple; the key is who controls each chamber. Scenario one: Democratic sweep (House + Senate), the least favorable for crypto legislation. TD Cowen defines this as the "most negative" outcome for the industry. The reason is straightforward: Elizabeth Warren will take charge of the Senate Banking Committee; she has been a main opponent of the CLARITY Act and one of the toughest skeptics in the crypto industry. The CLARITY Act stalled after a procedural Senate vote on September 15th failed 49 to 50; if Warren leads the Banking Committee, the path to restarting a full Senate vote in the next two years will be narrower. But there is a buffer: even if Congress shifts, Trump still holds veto power. TD Cowen expects he will veto bills that limit regulatory agencies' authority, and the Democrats lack the votes to override the veto. So the worst-case scenario is not a "regulatory U-turn" but legislative freeze I've never quite understood one thing: how can a company buy back its own products while also spending money to buy Bitcoin?
Strategy is doing exactly that this time. They repurchased $208 million worth of STRC, while simultaneously increasing their holdings by 811 $BTC. It sounds like moving money from one hand to the other, but actually the two sums are going in completely different directions: one goes back to their own people, the other is thrown into the market.
My intuition as a small retail investor is that if you want to buy coins, you need to have money first; if you want to save money, then don't buy coins. They don't have to worry about that—their balance sheet is layers thicker than ours, so they can step on two pedals at once.
I just don't know where this kind of operation will end up.Bitcoin rose by one point today.
Don't get happy just yet.
That one point was picked up.
Because oil dropped, down by three points.
Why did oil drop?
I heard Trump wants Iran to negotiate again, holding off on action for now.
But the seven oil-exporting countries refuse to increase production.
There’s a meeting on November 1st.
They said they will keep production at the current level until the end of the year, no increase.
When oil is insufficient, everything else gets more expensive.
Gasoline prices rose by more than nine points in September.
Half of that month's price increase was driven by oil.
With prices this high, the US dares not lower interest rates.
The current rate is stuck between 3.75 and 4.
So this Bitcoin rise happened because others loosened their grip.
Once oil prices come back, this rise will disappear.
I'm watching November 10th.
That day will release October's price data.
If that number goes down, Bitcoin will have a chance to ease off.
If it doesn't go down, these past few days' gains were in vain.
Currently around 78,000.
It has already dropped eight points this month.
If you want to buy, wait for the data on the 10th.
Don't think the recent rise means it will go back up.
$BTC #BitcoinDon't just watch the "Iran negotiations" for the spectacle; fundamentally, focus on these key points
Negotiation news is just the surface; what truly determines asset direction is whether the macro pricing foundation shifts. The key points to watch are:
1. Whether inflation expectations are unanchored. Watch the 10-year Breakeven. If oil prices fall but it remains unchanged, it means the market only sees it as an emotional pulse; if it falls along with oil prices, then the "oil price → inflation → rate cut" chain is considered connected.
2. The direction of real interest rates. Watch the 10-year TIPS. Falling real rates benefit gold, the Nasdaq, crypto, and other long-duration assets; rising rates suppress all valuations, and even geopolitical easing can't stop it.
3. The shape of the US Treasury yield curve. A bull-flattening curve indicates risk aversion and recession; a bear-steepening curve indicates inflation supply shocks. If oil prices fall but long-term rates do not, it means the market still retains an inflation premium, so it can't be called true easing.
4. The evidence chain of various assets.
For oil, watch the convergence of monthly spreads and the recovery of civil aviation, not just price drops;
For gold, watch falling real rates plus ETF net inflows, which indicate allocation returns;
For stocks, watch credit spreads not widening plus earnings expectations, not just VIX falling alone;
For crypto, watch stablecoin net inflows and funding rates;
For A-shares, watch PPI improvement, RMB exchange rate, and northbound capital flows.
The conclusion is simple: don't ask "whether the talks succeeded," ask "whether oil prices have fallen, inflation has eased, and whether the Fed dares to cut rates." Asset prices are the result; interest rate and liquidity expectations are the cause.$ETH Bearish: Price has risen for three consecutive days, but the ETF just set a record monthly outflow of $1.61 billion
ETH is now at 2286.88, up 0.90% in 24 hours, with the daily high of 2317.98 just hitting the 200-day moving average near 2317, failing to break above it
In October, the US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of $1.61 billion, the largest monthly outflow since its launch; last Friday saw another outflow of $156 million, and the cumulative net outflow this year has turned to about $45 million
The largest buyer is also slowing down; Bitmine only bought 8,573 coins last week, about $19.4 million, the least since mid-August, just about 49,500 coins short of the 5% holding target. Tom Lee said they would stop once they reach it
Price is rising, institutional buying is retreating, this rebound lacks relay funds, and above 2317 there is still the 100-day moving average resistance at 2353. On a pullback, first watch the 24-hour low support near 2247.
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 *Version 1 - Polished / Full:* > XPL Flash Crash - What Happened & Short-Term Review > 1. Cause of the crash > Before $XPL dumped, 12-16 linked wallets pulled margin together and withdrew over $2M USDC. That plus long liquidations triggered a liquidity vacuum, price collapsed ∼18% in seconds. > Hyperliquid's HLP vault was forced to absorb ∼$12.2M in underwater positions, taking a ∼$556k loss - textbook liquidity squeeze. > 2. Manipulation or Not? > The coordinated, concentrated withdrawals look $CFX
Conflux operates in a competitive Layer-1 environment where attracting developers is just as important as maintaining network performance. Ecosystem expansion can create opportunities, but incentives alone rarely guarantee long-term retention. The stronger fundamental signal would be applications generating organic transactions, sustained liquidity, and repeat users without depending entirely on promotional activity.🚨 COULD A DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER CRUSH MUSK’S $SPCX MERGER DREAM?
Democrats taking Congress may not directly block the merger, but tougher investigations and regulatory pressure could delay approval and shake market confidence.
📉 If both chambers turn Democratic, uncertainty could rise, putting $SPCX’s premium and Tesla’s valuation under pressure.
The biggest risk isn't cancellation — it's endless delays killing market optimism.
Stay cautious. Politics can change the market!
#DailyOrbit 【On-Chain Trading Update｜xyz:MRVL】
Monitored address 0x9758 opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: $200.94
▪ Transaction amount this time: $243,238.47
▪ Leverage: 10x
Note: This address has earned over $132,000 in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +20.80% An announcement contains two opposite actions: Strategy repurchasing $208 million worth of STRC, while simultaneously buying 811 bitcoins. Repurchasing is a pullback, buying coins is spending outwards; doing both at the same time indicates it is neither liquidating nor going all-in.
Let's look at the numbers first. $208 million is the repurchase scale, 811 is the new position added. The former is the company's own issued financing instrument being bought back, the latter is actual coins coming in. Both amounts are significant but of completely different nature: one is restructuring capital, the other is increasing underlying assets.
Mechanically, they are not contradictory. Buying back preferred shares or similar financing instruments is usually to reduce fixed costs and lighten the balance sheet; the freed-up space is then used to buy coins, effectively swapping "borrowing with interest" for "holding coins awaiting appreciation." For a company that treats Bitcoin as its main business asset, this is a structural adjustment, not a market bet.
The judgment has two layers. In the short term, 811 coins are real spot coins withdrawn from the market, reducing supply and creating bullish sentiment. But it must be clear this is a corporate financial decision, paced by financing windows, not following K-line trends. Treating it as "institutions are always bullish" risks being wrong.
The point worth considering is this: the market always focuses on how many coins it buys, rarely on how it finances the purchases. This time it's a combination of repurchase plus coin buying; next time if the combination changes—such as only buying without repurchasing, or a reduced repurchase scale—that would be a signal shift. Looking at the 811 figure alone reveals nothing.#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 急跌回弹后 SOXL 价格复位，但仓位已经被洗掉
The capital flow from last night's plunge is quite interesting; SOXL price has pulled back to the original point, but the corresponding positions have disappeared, unable to withstand this round of volatility.
BTCUSDT perpetual 50x long positions held through the retracement, synchronously following BTC's recovery. This clue only indicates a large difference in liquidation tolerance among the assets, so it cannot directly determine a trend reversal.
Next, focus on tracking contract liquidation flows to distinguish whether this is a short-term shakeout or capital reallocating positions among different assets.
Open your position list and verify the stop-loss settings on your high-leverage orders.
If the rebound holds above the previous low, continue to observe; if it breaks again, the current long position logic fails.
『【Interactive Question】』In the same sharp drop, would you prioritize using BTC or SOXL to bet on the rebound?
$BTC $ETH $SOL 📊 On the first full trading day after Apple's (AAPL) earnings report, I personally lean cautiously bullish.
The market is paying attention not only to revenue and profit but more importantly to iPhone sales, service business growth, and the new CEO's guidance for the future.
I believe that if the results meet or even exceed expectations, and management sends positive signals, AAPL has a chance to see a rebound.
But risks cannot be ignored. Rising memory costs may squeeze profit margins, and Apple's stock price has already gained significantly this year, so the positive news might trigger a pullback.
My strategy is to first observe pre-market sentiment and trading volume after the open, not rushing to chase the highs. Real opportunities often come from market reactions, not just earnings numbers.
What do you think—will AAPL close up or down this time?📈$XAUT /USDT — Tether Gold
Positive momentum: +0.41%
XAUT trades at $3,909.60, with $11.91M in reported volume. The token is moving higher and tracking gold-related value. Continued strength could push toward the next resistance levels, although reversals remain possible.
Next move: Watch $3,920 resistance.
TG1: $3,920
TG2: $3,940
TG3: $3,960
Pro tip: Check gold-market movements before drawing conclusions.#AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook BTC is in an oversold recovery phase after consolidation between 76,270–81,953, with the EMA resistance zone at 78,700–79,000 serving as the "touchstone" for the rebound, and 77,150 as the short-term defense baseline. ETFs are withdrawing (859 million on the 6th), and there is internal division among whales (BTC turning net short). Support below 80,000 is thinning — the current structural trend favors prioritizing short positions on rebound resistance. Until volume increases and BTC stabilizes above 79,200, the rebound will not be classified as a reversal; until it recovers 84,000–85,000, the narrative of a "rebound peak" cannot be ruled out. Those with positions should defend 77,150 well; those without positions should wait for a shorting opportunity on the rebound to 78,700–79,200, or a low-volume stabilization short-term long signal at 77,800–78,000. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ALGO
Fast transaction processing is useful, but speed alone is no longer a convincing competitive advantage in crypto. Algorand's longer-term relevance depends on whether its infrastructure attracts applications with recurring users and genuine economic activity. Developer retention, ecosystem liquidity, and real transaction demand offer more meaningful measures of progress than technical specifications alone. $NEO
Neo represents an earlier generation of smart-contract platforms, but its ecosystem story is still worth examining. The difficult part for established networks is maintaining developer attention while newer competitors introduce different technologies and incentives. Consistent application development and renewed user participation will be important indicators of whether Neo can remain competitive. Gear Whale hedges BTC short + ETH long + HYPE short. Small profit on short, HYPE under pressure, position changes on paper. BTC short 40X -249.9 19,456,100 opened at 78,104.1 profit +62,500 fee +162,000 margin 486,400 liquidation 105,840.81 ETH long 25X 9,823.81 22,443,500 opened at 2,427.28 loss -1,401,700 fee -77,800 margin 897,700 liquidation 1,549.04 HYPE short 5X -259,300 22,187,200 opened at 72.393 loss -3,415,800 fee +1,198,100 margin 4,437,400 liquidation 110.39 #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
Apple (AAPL) earnings report is about to be released! Wall Street expects this quarter's revenue to be about $113.4 billion, an increase of about 11% year-over-year, with earnings per share around $1.99. iPhone new model sales, foldable screen demand, and service business will be the core highlights. However, rising memory costs may squeeze profit margins, and the new CEO's AI strategy will also affect market expectations. I tend to expect steady performance with a slight chance of exceeding expectations, but what truly determines the stock price is the guidance for the next quarter!🍎SanDisk's latest earnings report has an uncommon detail: GAAP net profit is about $8.101 billion, while non-GAAP net profit is about $7.624 billion, with the latter actually being lower.
One reason is that there was approximately $513 million in equity securities gains during the quarter, which the company excluded in the non-GAAP adjustments, along with other expenses and tax adjustments.
This difference is worth noting because the drivers behind investment income and storage product operations differ. Treating investment income as core profit and extrapolating it forward would overestimate repeatability.
However, seeing this income doesn't mean the entire earnings report should be dismissed. After excluding related factors, the company still disclosed a very high profit level, indicating that the operational performance this quarter was strong in itself.
I think it's necessary to present both sides fully. When the market rises, it's easy to pick only the most attractive numbers; when the stock price falls, it's easy to seize on one adjustment item and declare the earnings lack substance. Such analysis is not very helpful for judging the next quarter.
Going forward, I will continue to watch whether core earnings can be maintained and how much of the strong guidance is realized. Fluctuations in investment assets can affect the financial statements, but the storage business ultimately has to make money through delivery, pricing, and customer demand.
This drop is painful for holders, but research should not pick and choose based on emotions. For the same earnings report, one must look at special gains and also acknowledge the operational achievements already made.
#闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% The 30-day average of active Bitcoin addresses is approximately 629,000, down 43% from the local peak of about 1.1 million in December 2024, with a further 1% decline in the past week. It is currently about 10% below the annual average of approximately 702,000. In 2018, this metric fell from about 1.1 million to approximately 547,000, a drop of about 50% over roughly three months; this current decline from the peak has lasted nearly two years, with a similar magnitude but a slower contraction. During the same period, from December 10, 2024, the 30-day average daily transfer volume decreased from about 865,000 BTC to approximately 819,000 BTC, a decline of about 5.4%, still about 5.5% above the annual average of roughly 776,000 BTC. Analysts believe that while active Bitcoin addresses have clearly declined, the scale of on-chain BTC transfers remains comparable to recent years; both indicators have declined over the past week, with no signs of sustained recovery yet. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC 根据GMGN 24小时成交榜数据，截至11月 2 日10:02（UTC），Solana、Robinhood、BNB Chain等主要Meme币市场的总交易量约为1.28亿美元，较前一日下降20.1%。其中，Solana以约8007万美元的成交量领先，Robinhood和BNB Chain次之。 Solana主导地位面临放缓 Solana仍然是Meme币活动的主要中心，占总交易量的60%以上。然而，整体下滑表明，过去几周席卷市场的投机热潮开始消退。三大平台交易量的下降反映出Meme币板块的更广泛降温，该板块一直是今年零售交易活动的重要驱动力。 市场影响：情绪转变？ 交易量下降20%可能预示着市场情绪的转变。Meme币通常被视为零售风险偏好的晴雨表，活动减少可能表明交易者变得更加谨慎。这可能是由于多种因素造成的，包括主要加密货币的近期价格回调、监管不确定性，或仅仅是在长期高波动后的疲劳。 此外，Robinhood作为Meme币交易场所的崛起值得注意。该平台跻身顶级市场之列，凸显了传统经纪服务与加密原生资产之间日益增长的交叉。随着更多主流平台拥抱Meme币，这些市场的动态可能会演变，可能导致I went all in with all my XP I bet No, and the underlying logic behind this judgment is not that the financial report is bad; on the contrary, the financial data is very strong. First, the AI storage theme had already experienced a big rally before the financial report, so the positive news was largely priced in by the market, turning the good news into bad news upon realization. Second, although the current revenue and orders are outstanding, storage is a cyclical sector. The market will priori$SOL /USDT — Solana
Sellers remain active: -0.69%
SOL is trading at $93.88, with $54.75M in reported volume. The short-term trend remains under pressure. A move above $94.50 could support recovery, while losing nearby support may bring further downside.
Next move: Watch $93.00 support.
TG1: $94.50
TG2: $95.50
TG3: $97.00
Pro tip: Confirm momentum before considering any market direction.#AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook Checked the market at 8 PM, and BTC has returned to around 77,800.
$BTC was still at 78,160 at 3 PM, but it started dropping before the US stock market opened. It’s now right at the 100-week EMA (about 77,759). I think tonight we’ll see if this line holds.
One detail: the price is falling, but the long-short ratio has gone from 2.21 back up to 2.28. Someone is buying the dip, but I don’t want to be the first to catch the fall.
$ETH is steadier than BTC today, still up over the last 24 hours.
My plan is simple: no moves before the ISM release at 11 PM, wait until after the first hour of the US market. If 77,600 breaks, I’ll reduce a bit.
This is my personal review, not investment advice.
Where are you standing tonight: holding 77,600, or breaking below?
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 #BTC #MarketAnalysisTonight's liquidation watch is intense: 158 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, 56,184 people out, and the hardest hit aren't the longs but the shorts. BTC liquidated shorts worth 29.54 million in one day, nearly three times the longs at 10.58 million; ETH shorts at 26.99 million versus longs at 10.03 million, shorts are bleeding here too. This drop isn't really a fall, it's clearly a squeeze upwards wearing out the shorts.
In the last hour, the pressure is still increasing 🤔: ETH shorts liquidated 3.3 million in one hour, longs only 400,000, an eightfold difference; ZEC shorts 390,000 versus longs 80,000, the short squeeze is accelerating. The more the shorts resist, the more they add positions, but each addition gets worn down—this is the most tormenting part of a grinding rally.
SOL is an exception 🚨: it liquidated 4.19 million longs in one day, more than twice the shorts at 2.05 million. While others are squeezing shorts, SOL is killing longs, indicating its buying power is the weakest among the four coins, no one is catching the rebound, and the longs can't hold on themselves. I usually don't take this kind of divergence lightly.
Next, watch the ISM at 23:00 tonight, expected between 54.5 and 54.7, not yet released. If the data is mild, the squeeze will likely continue grinding, and shorts will keep paying tuition; if the data is hot, the grinding rally rhythm breaks, and longs chasing in today should be careful about being caught in a reversal. My strategy: follow the trend but avoid heavy positions before the data release; for SOL, where longs are self-liquidating, I’ll stay clear and add positions after the data speaks.$CORE is really too coincidental
Shortly after the project team announced their withdrawal and handed the project over to the community, hackers attacked and stole 97 million tokens.
Isn't this timing too coincidental? They even had to stir up trouble before leaving. They really don't care about the users.
I don't know why I used to be optimistic about this and foolishly went long. Feels like I've lost everything in this life.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 A recent shareholder poll reportedly showed that 61.5% of respondents prioritize stock price performance, while only 18.6% focus on BTC per share. That highlights a major difference between owning Bitcoin directly and investing in a Bitcoin treasury company. These companies depend not only on BTC's price, but also on their market valuation premium. When that premium shrinks, the stock can underperform Bitcoin even if BTC remains relatively stable. With many treasury companies trading below their【$MSTR Holds Nearly 850,000 $BTC, Mizuho Still Bullish with 27% Upside】
Mizuho maintains a $165 price target for Strategy (MSTR). Based on the closing price of $130.51, there is about 26% upside potential. The optimism is supported by the company’s significantly strengthened balance sheet: net leverage ratio dropped to 2.4%, with approximately $5.07 billion in assets covering 3.4 years of dividends and interest expenses. On November 2, the company also disclosed it bought an additional 811 BTC last week, increasing its holdings to 849,327 BTC.
What shareholders should focus on most is that BTC holdings growth does not equal per-share value growth. This year, Strategy’s financing scale reached about $21.2 billion, with total coin holdings growing 26%, but BTC Yield is negative 3.7%, indicating that dilution from financing expansion has outweighed the growth in per-share coin content.
I believe Mizuho’s bullish core logic is this: cash reserves reduce the pressure to be forced to sell coins and repay debt, and when BTC rises, MSTR still has the ability to amplify gains. But this stock should not be judged solely by how many coins it holds; financing costs, equity expansion, and whether per-share coin content can turn positive again must also be considered. $165 is achievable, but what truly determines the quality of the rise is whether Strategy can allocate more Bitcoin to each share again.#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Apple is about to release its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report, which is also the first report since the new CEO John Ternus took office. This earnings report not only affects Apple's stock price but, more importantly, the market wants to know: transitioning from the Cook era to the Ternus era, can Apple continue to maintain growth and even open new growth opportunities? I believe there are four key points worth paying attention to. 1. Can the iPhone 18 continue to support revenue? The market expects Apple's revenue this quarter to be about $113.4 billion? No, it's $113.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 11%. Among them, iPhone business revenue is expected to be about $56.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 15%. The initial performance of the iPhone 18 Pro series after launch will become an important basis for the market to observe the new upgrade cycle. However, it should be noted that this quarter only includes the initial sales performance of the new device launch; the complete sales situation will have to wait until the next quarter. 2. Storage chip price increases, profit margins face challenges This is a risk that is easily overlooked in this earnings report. With the continuous expansion of AI data centers, the demand for DRAM and NAND storage chips has increased, and supply chain costs are also rising. Although Apple has strong supply chain bargaining power, if storage costs continue to rise, it may still squeeze the profit margins of the hardware business. Therefore, this time we cannot only look at revenue growth but also need to see if the gross margin can remain stable. 3. Can the AI strategy truly commercialize? Compared to iPhone sales,I smell the familiar scent from the last round again: whenever institutions make a move, it’s often mistaken as a cycle signal. But this time, we can’t just focus on the amount of coins bought.
Strategy increased its holdings by 811 $BTC last week and spent about $208.2 million to repurchase approximately 2.092 million shares of STRC preferred stock.
What I value more is this difference in the buyback: besides buying coins, they are also adjusting the capital structure. Judging a cycle strengthening solely by increased holdings, I think, is insufficient. Do veteran players feel this familiarity too? This time, do you pay more attention to the increased holdings or the buyback?#Meta credit outlook turns negative, AI investment credit risk draws attention BTC's weekend gains are limited, is there still a chance to reach 76500?
Around 76000 is a comfortable accumulation range; the weekend's slight rise is too light, and the market may retest 76500 again. This position is suitable for placing orders in advance and waiting, no need to chase small rebounds to enter.
It has already broken down, the cost-performance of speculation is very low, and no suitable entry direction is found for now. Detailed market analysis will be left for tonight's pre-market session.
Open your pending order panel and check the parameter settings of orders placed near 76000.
If it dips back to 76500, you can continue to layout; if it breaks upward directly, this low-buy strategy should be put aside.
『【Interactive Question】』Will you place an order at 76500 waiting for BTC to retest, or give up this position directly?
$BTC $ETH $SOL $NEAR NEAR's market situation is giving people goosebumps.
Heavy volume dumping with no decent rebound, directly grinding down to last month's low of 4.06. The most frustrating part is that the sell orders on the order book aren't actually thick, but there's simply no buying to absorb them. Big holders casually dump some chips and the price drops a notch.
Making $760,000 in a month, hosting a hackathon and still printing their own tokens to give out as prizes. They say it's a buyback, but the tokens bought back are all kept in their own pockets without burning them. Isn't that like scooping water with a leaking ladle? The big short sellers above probably see through this and are just waiting to smash below 4 dollars.
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇$ETH Ethereum is hovering around 2346, with a staggering $930 million worth of short positions queued for liquidation.
The main players just finished accumulating at the lows, and above them, the shorts are lined up neatly waiting to die.
2346 isn’t a resistance level; it’s purely fuel hanging on the order book to boost the price.
As soon as the main players gently leverage upward, the forced market buy orders from shorts cutting losses will push the price sky-high on their own.
The barrel is right at their heads, yet these shorts are still stubbornly holding on.
#ETH
$ETH
👇The most noteworthy thing about today's market isn't the price, but "volume increased, yet no money came in."
In the past 24 hours, the total contract trading volume across the market rose by 56%, reaching $111.8 billion, but open interest barely moved, staying around $137.1 billion. $BTC trading volume rose 37%, $ETH up 83%, yet open interest on both sides remained flat. Prices fluctuated around 78,000, touching 78,700 in the morning session before retreating.
In plain terms: one group is opening positions while another is closing, chips are changing hands, but no new funds are betting on direction. The options side is interesting too; the top three most active BTC contracts are all put options. The hottest is the put expiring November 27 with a strike price of 58,000, about 25% below the current price—more like buying insurance than betting on a crash.
The lesson I took from today: when you see "volume expansion," don't rush to assume a breakout; first check if open interest is keeping pace. Volume up but open interest flat likely means churning within a range; volume and open interest both rising means someone is truly placing bets. This week also has the US midterm elections and Friday's nonfarm payrolls—I’d rather wait for open interest to signal before making a move.
When you look at volume, do you also watch open interest?Out of 35 trusted validators, 33 support it. This near-unanimous vote reminds me of the old atmosphere where any upgrade news would flood the screen with bullish sentiment. I used to easily mistake "more support" for "the price should react," and having suffered from that misconception, I now understand that technical progress and market trends are not the same thing.
This time, the XRP Ledger token permission fix is scheduled to activate on Wednesday, while another independent proposal to block unauthorized token holders is still under review. I care more about whether the fix can be implemented rather than guessing $XRP's price movement based on vote counts. Support votes represent advancing consensus, not increased user demand; the two proposals should not be interpreted together, or else it’s easy to misjudge permission changes.
Honestly, I now stick to two rules: what hasn’t been activated shouldn’t be considered implemented; and don’t judge contracts based on titles without clarifying the scope of the proposals. Have you ever fallen into the trap of treating upgrade news as market signals? When facing such permission adjustments, which rule do you stick to?There's something I've never quite figured out: everyone says institutions are buying ETH, but in the past month, BlackRock itself has sold 580,000 tokens, worth $1.32 billion.
So who exactly is buying?
Then I realized, ETFs aren't driven by the institutions' subjective intentions; if others redeem, they have to sell. So the issue isn't whether BlackRock is optimistic about $ETH, but that some buyers are withdrawing.
In one month, 580,000 tokens. The total isn't shocking, but it happens every day. It's like the upstairs neighbor moving a chair every midnight—you can't get mad, but you can't sleep either.
The painful part is this: it's not a crash, it's a slow bleed.ETF outflow of $643 million in a single day, the largest since June. BlackRock IBIT withdrew $233 million, Fidelity pulled out $201 million, and no product had net inflows that day.
Institutions are running.
But on the same chain, someone is running faster and buying harder than anyone else. One giant whale dumped $62.97 million in 5 hours, scooping up 27,553 ETH at an average price of 2286. Another address was even more urgent, spending 34.69 million USDC directly on-chain to buy 15,216 ETH at an average price of 2279; the USDC was just withdrawn from Kraken this morning.
ETF is selling, whales are buying, and they’re buying the same asset.
BTC is stuck at 77,800, with a fear and greed index of 30. The funding rate is still +0.0074%, longs haven’t surrendered and are paying to hold on. But what’s really worth watching is the ETH line: ETF net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days, yet the price stubbornly holds above 2200, with whales buying one batch after another.
This isn’t panic. Someone is quietly using ETF redemptions as liquidity to quietly rotate positions.
Are you selling along with the ETF, or waiting with the whales’ positions? 👇
$ETH $BTC One month, 580,000 ETH, 1.32 billion USD. These three numbers tell the same story: BlackRock has been offloading assets continuously for a month, not just a single day of portfolio adjustment.
First, look at the scale. 580,100 ETH, 1.32 billion USD—this is the cumulative amount over a month, not a one-day adjustment. Sustained outflows and single large transactions are different; the former represents a decision, the latter is often just execution. A one-time dump is emotional, but a month-long outflow is planned.
Next, consider the mechanism. ETF subscriptions and redemptions are passive; when shares are redeemed, the fund must sell coins proportionally. So the real question is not whether BlackRock wants to sell, but who is redeeming. Redeemers are usually allocation funds, which focus not on on-chain activity but on their own risk budgets. Once this kind of money starts moving, it moves for a stretch, not just a step.
The conclusion is clear: the current selling pressure on $ETH is not emotional but rhythmic. This kind of pressure is the hardest to deal with because it’s not panicking, it doesn’t give you a chance to catch a bottom on a dip, it just slowly unloads the assets every day.
One point worth considering: after a month of continuous outflows, where did the chips go? If taken by long-term holders, that’s turnover; if they just flowed back from the ETF to exchanges and continue to be listed for sale, the pressure remains. These two answers determine whether the bottom will be consolidated or if the price will continue stepping down. The same applies to $BTC—don’t just look at the price, look at who holds the volume when it’s falling.DOGE is stuck in the narrow range between 0.075 and 0.081, with both bulls and bears waiting for the other to blink first.
In the past two days, DOGE dropped from 0.0806 to 0.0774, then bounced back to 0.0811, now consolidating around 0.076. The Bollinger Bands have tightened to 0.07477—0.07613, signaling a directional choice period: either a breakout or continued consolidation. Some see this as a “dead cat bounce,” with old support turned resistance; if it doesn’t reclaim this level within 4 hours, it’s just a rebound, not a reversal. Others view it as a defensive asset with “less decline and low volatility,” with the fear and greed index just above 30. DOGE’s pullback control is better than SOL and NEAR, so once sentiment recovers, the catch-up rally potential is worth watching.
On-chain is even more interesting: since last Thursday, large whales have dumped 120 million DOGE, while mid and small whales have picked up 100 million DOGE. Big money is selling, small money is bottom-fishing; who’s right or wrong will be clear next week. On Binance’s side, SAFU has already covered 95% of the hole, withdrawals have resumed, but the first day still saw a net outflow of 3.6 billion, meaning trust recovery lags behind capital replenishment. The macro environment hasn’t eased either: Q3 GDP at 3.4%, inflation at 3.7%, the “higher for longer” stance is choking risk appetite tightly. Apple and Palantir report earnings tonight; if tech stocks sneeze, DOGE will catch a cold too.
I’m still holding my spot and 2x coin-margined long positions. The real question now is: if 0.0749 breaks, do I add according to discipline, or finally admit this “compression” is squeezing the bulls? $DOGE Gasoline was the main driver of the month-on-month CPI increase in September. Let me do a straightforward calculation: spending less on fuel doesn't necessarily mean borrowing costs will immediately decrease. The news of falling oil prices gave $BTC some breathing room, but supply concerns from OPEC+ could still slow down improvements in the financing environment.
I think this is more critical for those relying on borrowing to participate in the market; you can't directly equate a drop in oil prices with cheaper capital. If supply constraints make the oil price decline unsustainable, inflationary pressures may persist, and financing burdens might not ease. This is my speculation—current sentiment easing and actual cost reductions are two different things.
My choice is to not factor financing improvements into the budget yet, and to manage risk assuming costs haven't decreased, playing it safer. Facing this oil price drop, would you rather wait for borrowing costs to truly come down, or take the risk of betting on an early improvement?Crude oil's plunge lifts gold, don't mistake it for a reversal
With the progress in US-Iran negotiations and expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, $BZ crude oil crashed more than five points directly. When oil prices plummet, inflation expectations instantly cool down, US Treasury yields soften, and gold rides this wave to narrowly escape death, making a sharp V-shaped rebound. But this is not a trend reversal at all; it's purely an oversold rebound after a severe prior drop. Don't get impulsive and chase the highs.
Look at $XAUT gold, the 15-minute chart shows a violent surge, MACD golden cross with volume pushing it straight above 3,900. Why the rise? Because the crude oil crash smashed the inflation base. But don't get carried away; the high-interest environment hasn't changed at all. It's all propped up by central bank buying underneath. Such a sharp short-term rally is very likely a trap; don't catch a falling knife.
Look at $BTC Bitcoin, oil price drops should be macro positive, but the market shows no mercy. ETF funds are frantically withdrawing, Coinbase premium has dropped to the bottom, and US capital inflow is completely cut off. The overhead trapped positions are heavy; the only option is to stubbornly endure the volatility. Hold the long-term spot firmly, never chase highs in the short term, and if shorting, strictly set stop losses. Don't turn a rebound bet into stubborn holding.
Look at Ethereum, still hopeless. When Bitcoin consolidates, it has no independent narrative; if Bitcoin weakens, Ethereum will definitely crash. Control your hands and don't be cannon fodder.
In summary, don't be fooled by geopolitical rhetoric. The gold lifted by crude oil is just short-term sentiment. The non-farm payrolls report will soon disappoint, and the high-interest dull knife cutting losses is not over yet. The market is all about stock game now; control your hands and don't mess around. Wait out this washout before making moves. #美伊谈判推进，霍尔木兹重开方案受关注