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#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
The new CEO, Tim Cook's successor, will release the first financial report after taking office today after the market closes. Market expectations are for revenue of $113.4 billion, with a core focus on holiday season guidance and the market performance of the iPhone 18, marking the first official performance report after the new phone's launch.
Product side is mixed: The price increase strategy supports the revenue base, the iPhone 18 Pro's high-end recognition remains solid, and after launching domestically, Pro series sales quickly surpassed 6 million units, with a 29% year-on-year growth in China, making it the core driver of global growth; the foldable model completes the product lineup, with 2nm chips and edge AI as core selling points. However, growth heavily depends on average price increases, with overall shipments down about 4% year-on-year, weak domestic demand in the US, and uneven regional growth.
Profit side pressure is evident: Rising prices of storage chips continue to erode gross margins, with guidance falling from 50.1% to 47%-48%, becoming the first cost challenge since the new CEO took office.
The current market is cautious about the AI spending narrative, and Apple's light capital expenditure nature has become a safe haven for tech stocks. If guidance meets expectations, it could provide emotional support for pressured tech stocks; if profits fall short, it may trigger further liquidity sell-offs, affecting high-liquidity risk assets.
$AAPL $BTC Saylor bought more coins again, 811 of them.
Pretty impressive, right?
Where did the money come from? Printed from stocks.
He issued 1.18 million new shares in one day and got 164 million.
He only spent 65.5 million on coins, pocketing the rest.
The more stocks printed, the fewer coins bought.
The coins you get per share have already decreased by 3.7% this year.
Later, another $18.6 billion worth of stocks was approved, continuing the printing.
The pie stays the same size, but more people are sharing it.
Next door, Strive also bought coins on the same day.
They didn’t issue a single new share.
With the same pie, their share per unit actually got bigger.
So don’t just look at how many coins they bought.
Look at one thing:
How many bitcoins back each share you bought.
If the coins increase but this number doesn’t, it means they’re buying coins while printing stocks.
To put it plainly:
Only one piece of meat was added to the pot, but three more people sat at the table.
The piece in your bowl didn’t get bigger; it actually got thinner.
This number is reported every quarter in the financial statements.
So the whole thing can be summed up in one sentence.
Them buying coins is their business.
Whether your share increases is your business.
This time:
Coins increased by 811, but your share got a little thinner.
It’s like dividing a cake.
The cake got bigger by one piece, but three more people came to share it.
The piece on your plate didn’t get bigger; it got thinner.
Next time you see "bought coins again," don’t rush to praise them.
First, look at the stock price on the day they announced the coin purchase. Conclusion first: The tokenized US stock track is accelerating, but $CT is quickly falling to a historic low.
1. The track is accelerating: On October 30, Kamino launched tokenized stock collateral lending on Solana; on November 1, Aave opened stock-collateralized USDC loans on Base; on October 31, Chainlink launched 24/7 pricing for tokenized assets.
2. $CT is moving in the opposite direction: OKX launched it on September 30, and it has dropped 74.1% in 30 days, currently priced at 0.1284, down 79.2% from the October 2 high, and only 1.4% above the October 30 historic low.
3. On-chain business hasn't collapsed: Concrete's TVL on DefiLlama is $1.228 billion today, down only 4% from $1.28 billion ten days ago.
4. The problem lies in pricing: Market cap is only $24.46 million; after deducting 810 million tokens not yet unlocked, FDV is $129 million; market cap/TVL ratio is only 2.0%. Circulating supply is just 19%, with 81% still locked up.
5. Market data confirms: Perpetual 24h volume is 9 million, 4.5 times the spot volume of 2 million; open interest is only 2.11 million; funding rate has been stuck at the 0.005%/4h floor for 12 consecutive periods, indicating no panic, just no takers.
On-chain activity is still growing, but the token collapsed first. Will you wait for unlock or exit first? The $BTC capital divergence is clear at a glance, and the capital outflow pressure on ETH is much fiercer than that of BTC.
The final Farside statistics are out: ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.607 billion throughout October, more than three times the $516 million outflow of BTC. This is a huge contrast compared to September's market, when ETH ETFs recorded a net inflow of $831 million; the trend completely reversed in just one month.
The capital rhythms of the two are completely different. BTC continued to accumulate inflows in the first half of October and was expected to close positive, but a large outflow on the last trading day of the month turned the entire month's capital into a net outflow, representing a negative data dump at month-end.
ETH's selling pressure persisted throughout October, with continuous capital withdrawal from the beginning to the end of the month and no significant inflows.
Institutional capital's choice is clear: prioritize risk aversion, only willing to hold digital gold assets like BTC, and remain cautious about ETH's long-term narrative. This ongoing capital hemorrhage means ETH will face heavier short-term pressure, with selling pressure continuous rather than a one-time shock.
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3. Since 1950, data shows that the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of about 15% in the 12 months following the election, regardless of which party dominates; risk appetite often recovers once uncertainty is removed. However, what truly impacts the industry are the fiscal policies, technology regulations, trade, and monetary policy expectations after the election. $BTC $ETH $SNDK For tech assets that have already significantly corrected, the next two months are worth reassessing valuation and positioning opportunities. AI investment is entering the second half, and evaluation criteria are shifting. Over the past three years, the market mainly focused on three points: whether there is core technology, whether computing power demand continues to grow, and whether there are enough customers and orders. As long as growth expectations are strong, high valuations are acceptable. But now the trend has changed; AI investment is shifting from a computing power arms race to strict scrutiny of balance sheets, financing capabilities, and free cash flow. On October 30, the Nasdaq fell 2.86%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 7.2%, reflecting market concerns about massive AI capital expenditures and return cycles. But a decline in tech stocks does not mean global computing power demand is drying up; AI infrastructure is still being built. The market is really asking: when will investments turn into profits? Will capital expenditures consume cash flow? How much can companies still finance at what cost? This is a stress test on the financial sustainability of AI companies, not an industry collapse. The future winners will not necessarily be the companies that spend the most money, but those that can sustain investment, control debt, and ultimately generate free cash flow. In the short term, focus on elections and liquidity, long $PLTR will report its Q3 earnings after the US market closes today, with a conference call scheduled for 6 AM Beijing time tomorrow morning. It dropped 6.27% last Friday, closing at $184.11, down 14% from the all-time high of $213. The forward P/E ratio is still nearly 97 times.
The real focus is on the full-year guidance. In August, it raised its full-year revenue forecast to $8.15 billion. Subtracting Q1's $1.63 billion, Q2's $1.935 billion, and the midpoint of Q3 guidance at $2.16 billion, Q4 is left with about $2.42 billion. Last year's Q4 was about $1.41 billion, so by this calculation, growth would drop from 93% in Q2 to 72%. Palantir tends to give conservative guidance; Q2 actual revenue exceeded the high end of its guidance by 7%, and the market is watching how much it can raise. To maintain 80% growth in Q4, the full year would need to be raised to around $8.26 billion.
There's also a less obvious figure. Q2 new contract value totaled $3.37 billion, up only 49% year-over-year, while revenue grew 93%, indicating orders are lagging behind revenue. Remaining contract value is $13.1 billion, up 83%, also trailing revenue growth.
Revenue exceeding $2.18 billion is just passing. Options bet on a one-sided 13.3% increase; to return to $213, it needs to rise 15.7%. Q3 beating expectations alone isn't enough; full-year guidance must be raised above $8.26 billion, and new contract growth must catch up. If the guidance only adds the extra from Q3 and orders continue to lag, a 97x P/E ratio will be hard to sustain, and $184 may not be the bottom. $QQQ $NVDA #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 BitChoice | Satya — DeFi & Market Structure Intelligence November 2, 2026 The Next DeFi Opportunity May Be Currency Conversion Decentralized finance has spent years building infrastructure for cryptoasset trading, lending and liquidity provision. Now an interesting development is bringing that infrastructure closer to traditional financial markets. On October 29, Curve Finance launched StableSwap on Stellar mainnet, marking Curve's first native deployment outside EVM-compatible networks. But ano#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
The November 3rd vote will determine control of Congress for the next two years. The current market has largely priced in a high probability that the Democratic Party will take the House of Representatives, with about a 70% chance of sweeping both chambers. Elections are short-term emotional disturbances and unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's main policy direction. The real determinant of midterm liquidity is the Treasury's refinancing plan on November 4th.
Three outcomes correspond to different market paths: a divided Congress is most favored by capital, as bipartisan checks and balances make large-scale fiscal expansion and aggressive regulation unlikely. Deficit expectations converge, benefiting a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, giving risk assets a breathing window; a Democratic sweep raises the probability of tighter crypto and AI regulation, putting short-term pressure on technology and altcoins; full Republican control favors looser regulation and tax cuts, but fiscal expansion would increase U.S. Treasury supply, which in turn suppresses growth assets.
For the crypto market, BTC is primarily anchored to macro liquidity and ETF funds, so the election has limited direct impact; DeFi and concept altcoins are more sensitive to regulation. Some states have crypto-related referendums, which may trigger independent sector rallies.
It is important to note that pre-election expectations have already been priced in. Outcomes that meet expectations tend to result in realized moves, while unexpected results will amplify volatility; if vote counting disputes arise, market volatility will quickly escalate.
$BTC $ETH #With the US midterm elections approaching, which outcomes are worth watching?
I am the midline intelligence guy. For midterms, I don't look at slogans, only three key votes:
1. Control of the two chambers
The House is very likely to flip blue, the Senate is uncertain. A divided Congress = policy gridlock, fiscal expansion limited, risk assets first to suffer from negative surprises.
2. Crypto legislation window
The "Clarity Act" is stalled. If Republicans hold both chambers, BTC and ETH rebound with compliance expectations; if Democrats sweep, regulatory scrutiny tightens, altcoins fall first, BTC relatively more resilient.
3. BTC/ETH positioning
$BTC benefits from the "fiat distrust + liquidity" logic, election noise doesn't change the midline view; $ETH is more sensitive to regulation and ETF funds, more affected by Congress results.
My approach: deleverage before the election, hold BTC spot firmly, wait for results before assessing ETH legislative wording, no overplaying scenarios.$ZEC brother, the funding rate is very stable, you can do hedging to earn the interest spread. It settles every 4 hours, 6 times a day, 6*0.01%=0.06%; with a principal of 100,000, take out 50,000 to short, more than 50,000, about 30 yuan a dayOn-chain finance has always used a stopwatch to handle tasks requiring sub-second precision. The Jenner hard fork of BNB Chain introduced BEP-706: it added a precompiled contract at address 0x70, allowing smart contracts to directly read the current block's millisecond-level timestamp, i.e., the number of milliseconds since the Unix epoch.
This is a detail, but it underpins all time-sensitive logic on-chain. Previously, deadline judgments for time-limited signature quotes, auction hammer times, and timeliness checks before price oracle updates could only be segmented by seconds. Two bids arriving within the same second could not be ordered by the contract and had to be resolved by the packaging order.
BEP-706 is very restrained in its approach. It adds a new precompile without altering the existing block.timestamp second-level return mechanism. Old contracts require no changes, and new contracts that want precision can call 0x70 themselves.
For $BNB, the significance is not in the coin price but in what it can support. Millisecond-level timestamps are the entry ticket for time-limited auctions, quote matching, and liquidation windows. Auction gameplay on $CAKE and signature validity checks on wallets are directly benefiting.
One point worth considering is that even though contract time precision is solved, the user's perceived experience may not immediately change. The bottleneck in on-chain experience has never rested on a single timestamp; precision is a necessary condition, not a sufficient one.Crypto has put $233 million into this election cycle, yet most traders still haven't clocked how much this midterm matters for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Two scenarios: Regulation-heavy Congress: Current bounces could prove to be bull traps. Tighter rules on ETFs, on-chain compliance, and institutional access would weigh on prices. Crypto-friendly Congress: BTC likely leads the move, while ETH benefits from DeFi, L2, and ecosystem narratives, giving it strong upside resilience. Geopolitics adds anothFear at 34, bulls at 69.4%: sentiment is cold, positions are hot, who will admit they're wrong first?🤔
• BTC at $78,086, up only +0.7% in 24h, but down -7.2% on the October monthly chart; price is grinding, sentiment is shrinking.📉
• Fear index at 34, market verbally cautious; yet 69.4% of Binance BTC futures accounts are on the long side, positions are not cold.⚖️
• Last Friday saw $643 million net outflow from ETFs, spot funds are withdrawing, but futures funds show no obvious excitement.💸
• Funding rate only 0.01%, indicating although there are many longs, no one is willing to chase with high leverage; the buzz stays at the account direction level.🧊
• Key events this Wednesday: Binance reserve proof, Friday $2.1 billion options expiry with bullish clustering above $82K, and non-farm payroll data.🗓️
This looks like a tug-of-war of “sentiment defense, position offense”: fear comes from ETF outflows and monthly decline, longs come from expectations on key events and above $82K. If reserve proof stabilizes confidence, options push up, and non-farm data doesn’t disappoint, bulls may take the lead; if data or liquidity throws cold water, the 69.4% longs could turn into a crowded trade.🔥
Fear says be cautious, positions say rebound, who’s right this time?
$BTC
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 黑客事件过去两天，市场给出的回应比价格本身更刺眼：资金在离场。$BTC 现货 ETF 单日净流出 6.43 亿美元，创下年内最差纪录——本周前四天辛苦积累的 4.4 亿美元净流入，一天之内全部吐回。黑客地址上仍有大量 $BTC 在链上移动，价格贴着 30 日低点，RSI 仅 37，四条均线齐齐压顶，反弹力度虚弱得几乎可以忽略。 真正值得警惕的不是跌幅，而是资金与成交量的双重退潮。昨日成交量只有 7 日均值的约五成，买盘已经停手。这意味着当前的下探并非恐慌抛售的高潮，而是流动性抽离后的真空下滑——没有承接，也没有反抗。 $ETH 的结构更完整地呈现了空头图景：单周净流出 4.13 亿美元，整个 10 月累计流出 16.07 亿美元，叠加黑客在链上的洗钱与抛售动作，价格同样紧贴 30 日低点，RSI 37.5，均线全面压制，下降趋势没有任何裂缝。$SOL 则站在主要币种的队尾：ETF 单周净流出超 1 亿美元，成交量仅 1 亿出头，RSI 35，MA7/20/60 依次压顶，资金撤离的速度快过价格下跌的速度。 场外同样没有援军。现货黄金从 1 月高点 5595 回落至 3874，美联储表态In the unfinished orders from the Binance $TRX hack, there's still a hole of over a hundred million USD in TRX hanging there.
To achieve 100% reserve, this batch will sooner or later be slowly bought back on the secondary market.
Look back at the spike at the 0.30 level
It plunged down and was all bought up in the blink of an eye
Giving retail investors no time to react or catch the dip
With such an obvious buyback expectation supporting the bottom here
Shorting against the trend at this level is purely a losing bet
Good opportunities don’t wait, the window is as short as a player’s comeback.
#TRX
$TRX
👇$UNI The long-short ratio for UNI has actually surged to 2.48, the crowd is packed on board.
Everyone is stubbornly holding and buying long with leverage; if the market shakes even slightly, this group of longs will immediately stampede and become a side dish.
Looking at the V4 locked volume, it dropped nearly 30% in a single week, money is flowing out.
No buying pressure is entering; it's all retail investors holding firm inside, a pullback could come at any time.
#UNI
$UNI
👇pepe withdrawal is still not open, could Binance become the sad frog?
85 hours ago, hackers attacked Binance and stole various assets, including pepe worth 35 million USD.
24 hours ago, Binance replenished most of the stolen assets and opened withdrawals, but so far, pepe has not been replenished, and pepe withdrawals are still not available (with screenshots as proof).
35 million USD, if Binance wants to buy, buying on the open market will inevitably pump pepe's price. According to the screenshots, the total sell wall for pepe on Binance is less than 30 million USD. If Binance sweeps the market at the current price, pepe's market cap will directly jump to 8 billion USD. Binance simply cannot buy back the same amount of pepe stolen by the hackers, and even if someone is willing to sell pepe to Binance, Binance will pay a cost far exceeding 35 million USD because the price has risen nearly 5 times.
Considering that pepe recently applied for an ETF and Sun bought 50 million USD worth of pepe, if Binance wants to replenish the stolen pepe, it either has to buy from pepe's whales or from Sun.
The pepe whales have controlled and accumulated for over a year, preparing for this weekly-level main upward wave. They will not sell their chips to Binance at cost and then return them to retail investors. $PLTR 的调整后每股只剔两样东西，股权激励和跟它相关的雇主工资税。持股的涨跌不剔。8月电话会上CFO Dave Glazer讲过一句： Unrealized gains from our holdings in SpaceX resulted in a $0.03 tailwind to GAAP EPS and a $0.02 tailwind to adjusted EPS in the quarter. 二季度那0.41里，有2分钱是SpaceX给的。三季度SpaceX从170.86跌到150.86，跌了11.7%。Palantir没披露持了多少股，6月底它手里的上市公司股票按公允价值一共1.84亿美元。全当成SpaceX算，这季调整后每股少0.6分钱左右。 调整后净利润能还原出来。调整后营业利润加上利息收入和其他收入，减掉少数股东损益，再乘77%，23%是公司一直用的名义税率。过去四季照这个算，跟新闻稿的数都对得上。 一致预期是0.41。盘子的线是0.42，新闻稿上要是0.43才算。利息收入按8,500万、其他收入按负2,000万、少数股东损益按500万、股数按25.75亿$SNDK $INTC $GOOGL
Good earnings are no longer enough to drive stock prices higher. Google, Intel, and SanDisk all achieved revenue growth, but investors still punish those who miss expectations.
After weeks of strong rebounds, valuations are facing stricter scrutiny. Even when earnings exceed expectations, it does not always push stock prices up. The market's willingness to pay for growth is weakening. Capital no longer simply pays for revenue growth speed but focuses more on forward guidance, profit margins, and the pace of AI monetization. The earlier rebound has already priced in some optimistic expectations, and the earnings season has entered a "falsification first" phase, where even slight flaws can easily trigger profit-taking. Going forward, the focus is on long-term bond yields and corporate guidance, controlling positions while waiting for signals with greater certainty. #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 The current market expectations lean towards the Democratic Party controlling both chambers of Congress, with the Republicans (Trump's side) unlikely to gain the upper hand; although Trump has previously overturned deficits in elections, the market believes the chance of a comeback this time is low.
This would mean that if the Democrats take both chambers, the policies Trump wants—such as tax cuts, deregulation, and increased tariffs—that are favorable to crypto and the US stock market will be difficult to implement. The market's previous hype around Trump's policy benefits will cool down, and the Nasdaq and BTC are likely to face downward pressure.
Looking back at the midterm elections in 2018 and 2022, the Nasdaq experienced pullbacks around those times. It's uncertain whether this pattern will repeat. #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ On the first trading day of winter time, after the market opened at 10:30 PM, the S&P rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq $QQQ rose 0.7%, and the Dow rose 405 points. Leading the way was oil; Rubio said Trump prefers a peaceful resolution with Iran, and it was also reported that Khamenei authorized the government to negotiate. Brent fell 6.1% to $106.5, and WTI dropped to $97.7.
Tech stocks saw large orders. Marvell is acquiring optical module manufacturer Lumentum entirely with stock, valuing the company at $115 billion, a 23.9% premium, with the deal closing expected in the first half of 2028. However, Benzinga reported that Lumentum fell 6.5% pre-market, with no recognition of the premium. Nvidia rose over 1%, Amazon and Tesla $TSLA rose over 2%.
Disappointingly, Oracle filed before the open to simultaneously sell $10 billion in new shares and $10 billion in bonds, diluting about 2.5%, and fell 3% pre-market. It has already dropped 33% this year.
This bullish candle is mediocre, with the gains mainly driven by the space created from the oil price drop. Lumentum fell despite the premium, and Oracle’s bond and stock sales show that investors remain cautious about AI spending. The Nasdaq just finished its worst month since March 2025 in October, and after-hours tonight Palantir and Apple $AAPL will report consecutively; if one guidance misses expectations, this 0.7% gain will have to be given back tomorrow. The 6% drop in oil was also just based on a statement; none of the seven conditions set by Iran have been implemented yet. #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 FDA approved Inovio's first product after market close on Friday, and the stock price more than tripled in after-hours trading — but the main stock fell 22% on Friday first.
FDA accelerated approval of Voceryq (formerly INO-3107), which reduces the frequency of surgeries for adult recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, claiming to be the first approved DNA drug.
Orders can be placed and shipped within about 60 days, with full market launch in Q1 2027; a conference call at 8 PM Eastern tonight will discuss labeling and commercialization.
Closed at $0.60 on Friday, down 22%, with about 80.5 million shares traded; after-hours surged to $2.71, then retreated to about $2.05, and pre-market this morning around $2.04.
But this is accelerated approval, and confirmatory studies are still required to verify benefits, with a study draft due before year-end and finalization by mid-next year.
A competitor's product from Precigen in the same field was approved in August 2025, so Inovio does not have the first-mover advantage; actual drug sales realization is the next hurdle.
I think the approval is real, and the revaluation is real, but the after-hours triple already priced in the "first product" all at once.
I don't chase after-hours gains: only if the opening price holds above $2.71 do I consider further gains; if it falls back below $2.00 and can't recover, the logic for chasing high fails.
Do you think this is a biotech comeback, or just another one-day approval hype?
The above is just personal observation and record, not investment advice.
$INO $PGEN
#USStocks #BiotechU.S. stocks moved higher, yet several key AI infrastructure names came under heavy selling pressure. 📊 Market snapshot: Dow Jones: +1% S&P 500 & Nasdaq: nearly +0.6% Lumentum ($LITE): down over 10% Marvell ($MRVL): down over 6% Ciena ($CIEN): down nearly 3.9% Neocloud stocks also weakened: ALAB, CIFR, CRWV and NBIS fell around 3–5%. My read: This looks more like sector rotation and selective profit-taking than a broad market selloff. The AI infrastructure story remains intact, but investors mayAAPL 7月那份新闻稿的第一段，每股收益后面跟了半句。 2月最高法院判按IEEPA加征的关税无效，苹果申请了退款，退回来的钱冲减产品成本，直接算进毛利率。上季毛利率50.1%，其中约2个点是退款。 这一季的指引里还有。CFO Kevan Parekh 7月给的毛利率是47%到48%，紧跟着还有一句。 This includes an expected benefit of approximately one percentage point related to tariff refunds. 也就是47%到48%里，约1个点是退款。按指引中值把每股算一遍，单位是亿美元和亿股。 (1127 × 47.5% - 192.5 + 3.5) × 83.5% ÷ 146.5 = 1.97 营收取同比增10%的中值，营业费用192.5亿，其他收支3.5亿，税率16.5%，股数是按回购节奏估的。退款那1个点毛利率，税前11亿左右，摊到每股0.06左右。扣掉它，指引中值对应的每股只有1.91。 盘子看的是Seeking Alpha的Normalized每股，线是1.98。上季这个口径记的是2.02$TAO raises an important question about decentralized AI: can token incentives coordinate services that people genuinely need? Reward systems may attract contributors, but useful output matters more than participation alone. Service quality, external demand, transparent evaluation, and economic sustainability are essential when assessing decentralized AI networks.#Palantir Financial Report Review: Can High Growth Support a High Valuation $SNDK will always lack VRAM, but it won't always lack storage
[Hardcore review of this "retail investor takeover"]:
Look at Chart 1, the 15-minute chart of SNDK, dropping sharply from 1198.9 to 1118, with all moving averages in a bearish alignment, MACD showing a bearish crossover below zero, and green bars surging wildly—a classic one-sided sell-off.
But what really gives me chills is the data in Chart 2: the proportion of long positions is as high as 89.69%! The long-short ratio is 8.7! Almost everyone in the market is long! What does this mean? Countless retail investors, seeing the earnings per share (EPS) of 49.51 far exceeding expectations, are crazily catching falling knives halfway down. The manipulative whales, seeing nearly 90% of the opposing positions, are grinning ear to ear; they definitely won’t push the price up until they’ve completely wiped you out.
[Macro logic: the stark contrast between VRAM and storage]:
This is the real picture in the AI computing power sector now: Nvidia keeps shouting about the shortage of HBM (VRAM), boosting Hynix to the skies; but companies like SanDisk, which produce traditional NAND flash (storage), face overcapacity and cooling prices. No matter how good the earnings report looks, it can’t withstand the chill of the storage cycle—this is a typical case of "dead on sight" plus "valuation kill."
[My advice]:
Use the harshest good news to trap the most unfortunate retail investors. This 89.69% long position is the most terrifying "contrarian indicator." Absolutely do not bottom-fish now; short on rallies near the moving averages (around 1150), or just stay out and watch. Wait until these 90% bloodied chips are all washed out before considering entering the market.US stock indices all opened in the green, Brent crude fell 6%, yet Bitcoin remains pinned at 78,000. On the fifth day after Binance was hacked, TRX and AAVE are still dragged along by the incident, with ZRO hanging on the list of biggest decliners.
$TRX around 0.3177, hackers take a breather
Up 2.2% in 24 hours. Hackers transferred about $628 million via Tron, still holding about 475 million TRX, which was dumped to 0.302 on October 31. Chainalysis says the Tron intermediary wallet has been basically emptied, still 4% below the pre-incident 0.331.
$ZRO around 1.77, rebound interrupted ⚠️
Down 7.6% in 24 hours. After touching 1.41 on October 30 and just bouncing back to 1.80, it failed to hold today. On the 20th, 23.28 million tokens were unlocked, about 2.3% of total supply.
$AAVE around 131, borrowed by hackers
Down 5.2% in 24 hours. According to on-chain blogger nug, hackers deposited $60 million stolen USDT into Aave before the freeze and borrowed about 19,800 ETH. Aave then froze the mainnet V3 market; the official stance is no bad debt recognition.
Those 475 million TRX remain unmoved, making it the most stable among the three. Once transferred to exchanges, the 0.302 level will need re-verification. ZRO likely won’t recover 1.80 before unlocking, probably finding support near 1.5. The real issue with AAVE is who ultimately bears the $60 million USDT loss; if it’s passed on to depositors, the drop will exceed this 5%. #加密行业协同守护资产安全 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 The core logic behind Palantir's current market trend is "sovereign AI," with a surge in the U.S. commercial sector combined with defense orders providing a floor. It has exceeded revenue and profit expectations for multiple consecutive quarters, with outstanding free cash flow and retention rates, forming the foundation for supporting a high valuation. The U.S. government business is highly sticky, with projects like Maven and TITAN implemented, providing long-term stable orders; on the commercial side, the AIP platform continues to scale, with enterprises showing strong demand for data autonomy and privatized AI, and a robust pipeline of commercial orders.
The contradiction lies in the valuation premium being fully stretched, with forward valuations almost fully pricing in high growth for the coming years, leaving very little margin for error. It is not standardized software; delivery heavily depends on on-site engineers and leans more towards data consulting, which imposes a ceiling on scalable expansion. At the same time, it faces competitive pressure from major players like Microsoft and OpenAI. If new commercial contract growth slows, the valuation will quickly plummet. Additionally, performance is highly tied to the U.S. defense budget, with midterm elections and budget negotiations causing order fluctuations.
Key earnings report focus: U.S. commercial revenue growth, number of new customers, net retention rate, and full-year guidance from management. If guidance is raised and orders continue to grow strongly, there is room to maintain valuation; if growth slows, a double hit to valuation and performance is likely. As a high Beta AI stock, it will also fluctuate in line with the Nasdaq and U.S. Treasury yields.ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Trade.xyz, and OKX have partnered to build a compliant perpetual contract trading and clearing system in the U.S., operated by ICE, with OKX's joint venture channel responsible for user distribution. This marks an important step toward the compliance of perpetual derivatives in the U.S. In the long term, it aims to open the compliant retail leverage market in the U.S., narrowing the advantage of offshore exchanges, promoting industry standardization, attracting domestic U.S. capital, and improving regulatory expectations for crypto derivatives.
However, the biggest uncertainty lies in CFTC approval. Currently, only a cooperation framework has been reached; licenses and product details have yet to be finalized. The approval process is lengthy and carries risks of rejection or leverage restrictions. At the same time, the compliant platform will impose strict KYC, position, and leverage constraints, making it difficult for liquidity to catch up with offshore markets initially.
In the short term, this is sentimentally positive, driving stronger momentum for Hyperliquid and the derivatives sector; if successfully implemented, it will reshape the global contract landscape. Going forward, key focus will be on CFTC approval progress, leverage caps, and launch timelines. #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 $BTC $ETH $SOL Why is Intel considered a "fire sale" while Google is seen as a "bargain buy" despite both experiencing sharp drops?
In this recent tech stock pullback, many have asked me: Intel has fallen so badly, is it worth buying? My original response was: Don't catch a falling knife. Although both have plunged deeply, these two are fundamentally different.
$INTC: This is "massive bleeding," not "growing pains."
It’s down nearly half, but the fundamentals are directly disappointing. Management has warned that free cash flow won’t turn positive until 2027, foundry business has almost no external customers, relying entirely on self-subsidizing. Historical data is even more painful: buying after big drops has less than a 50% success rate over 60 days. Major banks are downgrading ratings. Its drop is a cash flow black hole; what you think is a bargain is actually filling the company's pit.
$GOOGL: This is a "wrongful sell-off," not a collapse in logic.
It also dropped sharply after earnings due to heavy AI investments causing short-term cash flow pressure. But look at the trump cards: cloud business profits surged, the core cash machine is intact. Management clearly stated AI monetization will ramp up in 2027, plus the antitrust risk of forced breakup has been resolved, with all major banks rating it as "buy." Its drop is impatience waiting for results; this is the real opportunity to buy the dip.
In summary:
Intel’s foundation is quicksand, Google’s is concrete.
In this pullback, brothers, are you ready to pick up Intel or lay in wait for Google? The $BTC market also lacks volume now, so hold your hands, don’t trade recklessly!
#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 Seeing "burning 2 billion USDT," my first reaction was also, "Is this money?" Later I realized, this is not someone's money being burned at all.
USDT is a stablecoin; the issuer owes as much as they have issued. Burning is equivalent to taking back the IOUs and tearing them up, reducing the circulating supply. $USDT will not rise because of this; it is supposed to stay pegged to 1 USD.
But the batch of tokens that disappeared was originally lying on Ethereum, ready to enter the market at any time. Now they're gone, so $ETH on-chain transactions and $BTC buying demand lose one source. So don't rush to interpret this as bullish, nor rush to call a crash; first see if they replenish it or not.Tether Treasury just burned 2 billion USDT on the Ethereum chain. The news is just one sentence, one number, one chain.
The fact is clear: on the Ethereum chain, 2 billion tokens, the entity is Tether Treasury. There was no accompanying announcement, nor any mention of whether there will be a reissuance.
Why does "burning" make people nervous? Because most people think burning means money is destroyed. But USDT is a stablecoin, and each token represents a liability of the issuer. Retrieving and burning it means removing that liability from the books—it doesn't measure who lost money, but that the chips used for settlement on this chain have decreased.
Two things must be distinguished. First, a reduction in supply does not equal price support; USDT is pegged to 1 USD and won't rise just because 2 billion tokens are gone. Second, the transmission path is liquidity: a decrease in stablecoin supply on-chain means a batch of dry powder ready to enter the market is withdrawn, reducing sources for $ETH on-chain trading and $BTC spot buying.
So the judgment is cautious: this is neither a bearish crash nor a bullish signal, but a contraction in liquidity scale. What’s worth watching is whether the total stablecoin supply on Ethereum rebounds in the following days—continued net decrease indicates funds are truly exiting, while replenishment by new issuance is just an accounting relocation.
One last point: such operations are becoming more frequent, indicating stablecoin supply has become an adjustable valve. The valve is held by a few issuers; how much of the on-chain data we see is actually market-driven?Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $ETH is very small. The near-month buy and far-month sell quote spread is +0.08%, with the first-level pair size about $199; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 2%. Small orders can probe, but volume expansion must look at deeper levels.
The $SOL mark spread is positive, but the near-month buy and far-month sell first-level quote is already inverted. Near-month annualized +1.88%, far-month annualized +0.54%; mark near-far spread +0.08%, near-month buy and far-month sell first-level quote spread -1.36%. When inverted, trading costs will consume the entire marked spread.#闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% This earnings report shows revenue and profit both exceeding expectations, while announcing a 1-for-8 stock split plan. The split itself is a neutral event and does not create new value; it mainly facilitates entry for small investors. The core of the sell-off comes from differing expectations about the cycle; after a huge prior increase, the bullish market has been fully priced in. The market worries that the flash memory price increase slope is slowing, with upstream partner Kioxia signaling a cooling in the boom, and funds beginning to speculate that this storage upcycle is approaching its mid-to-late stage.
Although AI data center demand supports baseline orders, NAND is essentially a commodity, and price increase momentum weakens after supply recovers. Even with strong performance, as long as growth slows at the margin, high valuations are hard to maintain, representing a typical case of good news being priced in.
Going forward, key tracking points include flash memory spot prices, long-term contract order fulfillment, and peer capital expenditure plans. If flash memory prices remain strong, valuations have a chance to recover; once the price increase cycle peaks, the sector will enter a period of intense volatility. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Weird! Despite all macro factors being bearish, $BTC stubbornly refuses to drop. What script are the main players waiting for?
Tonight's data is truly magical.
The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was released at 55.5, significantly exceeding the expected 54.6; September construction spending even shrank to -1.9%. Strong macro data means the Fed's rate cut expectations are further suppressed, which should be broadly bearish for risk assets.
But look at the crypto market: BTC is stuck tightly around 77,900, oscillating within a narrow range of less than $300; $ETH is even holding firm at 2,294 (+1.27%). Where has the money gone?
Checked crude oil $CL, and sure enough, crude is drawing a crazy gate, pulling all speculative funds into commodities.
This kind of "bearish dulling" sideways movement is extremely dangerous and crucial. It indicates that the existing funds in the crypto market have "laid flat." Both bulls and bears dare not bet heavily at this level; everyone is waiting for the real "trump card" — the November 6th nonfarm payroll data and the upcoming US election.
The script going forward:
It's not that there is no direction now, but the direction is temporarily sealed. Once the macro election or nonfarm data lands, this extremely compressed volatility will definitely explode into a fierce one-sided move. Before this blind box opens, hold your hands and don't pay a high toll in this stagnant ripple.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $ZEC: Go long!
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to pull back to the 1250-1255 range (EMA10/EMA20 dense support zone) and stabilize before entering a long position.
· The initial target is 1284 (24-hour high); if this is effectively broken, then look at the 1300 round number. Set stop loss below 1240.
Core basis:
1. Effective moving average support: On the 1-hour chart, the price has successfully risen above EMA5/10/20, with the moving averages in a bullish alignment. The short-term bottom structure is gradually rising, indicating a strong trend.
2. Short squeeze critical point: Chart 2 shows short positions as high as 196 million U (average price 1266). The current price is approaching their cost line. Once bulls break through 1266, it can easily trigger short stop-loss cascades (short squeeze).
3. Bullish chip advantage: Bulls have a very low average cost (1021), with nearly 70% in profit, meaning almost no selling pressure from stop-losses. Shorts appear strong but are actually fragile; pulling back to the moving averages to buy offers an excellent risk-reward ratio.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $RIVN is trading at 13.52 (+10.09%), between 12.21 and 13.55._
Above MA5 13.12, MA10 12.90, MA20 12.76. Low 12.47, breakout to 13.55 high, now 13.52.
Vol 15.48K RIVN / 209.35K USDT, New TradFi Stocks, Today +10.09%, 7D +17.46%, 30D -5.45%, 90D -14.04%. Hold 13.12 targets 13.55, break below 12.90 risks 12.21.
Rivian Automotive
@OKX成长学院 #DailyOrbit I'll make a bold statement: the midterm elections are completely useless and will not affect the crypto market at all! Coincidentally, I just happen to study macroeconomics, and I graduated from a top-tier 985 university!
The vote counts in the Senate and House of Representatives are actually meaningless; midterm elections have always been nothing more than child's play. At present, it looks like the Republicans will most likely only hold onto the Senate (and even that is uncertain), while the House will definitely be lost.
I can only say that the capital markets, including gold, stocks, and $BTC, have nothing to do with this. It seems people think the winner determines which policy direction is reasonable, but the fact is that regardless of who wins, both the Democrats and Republicans will not change their major economic policies for the future of the U.S. market.
If the midterm elections were going to impact crypto, there would be a buying expectation right now, with volatility whether bullish or bearish, instead of this dead silence!
The real volatility to watch for will come when the Treasury releases its report on November 4th, which will disclose the U.S.'s future debt issuance. My consistent view is that as long as the debt situation does not deteriorate, global liquidity will not ease! $BTC largely represents capital seeking safe haven plus stable returns to escape risk.
Otherwise, institutional costs wouldn't be so high. Could it really be that $BTC options expiration causes selling? That's impossible.
In short, the midterm elections are not important; what matters is the Treasury!
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Today's discussion question: 【How do you determine whether a profit comes from skill or market bonus?】
When you first start trading, it's easy to have the illusion that if the price rises after you buy, your judgment is correct; after making several profitable trades, you feel you have mastered the market rules.
But the most dangerous part of trading is here: the market may reward a wrong decision or punish a correct one.
I judge whether a profit comes from skill or market bonus from the following perspectives:
If the overall market rises 20% and your account rises 25%, do you really have the ability to generate excess returns?
Not necessarily. You may have just taken on higher risk and earned returns close to the market.
If every trade has a clear logic, even if it ends in a loss, you can review and optimize it.
Conversely, if every profit comes from impulsive decisions, chasing highs and selling lows, or you can't even explain why you bought, then the profit is likely just market bonus.
Making money in a bull market isn't necessarily hard; the challenge is controlling losses when the market is bad.
If a trader only makes money in a bull market but keeps losing in a bear market, then their profitability may heavily depend on market conditions.
Of course, this doesn't mean you have to make money in every market.
A truly mature trader doesn't make money in every market but knows which markets suit them and which to avoid.
True growth in trading doesn't start from making your first profit but from beginning to discern why you are making money The second question left this morning got an answer ahead of time tonight
This morning, I left two questions, and one of them got an answer ahead of time tonight.
Binance released Recovery Update #5 at 20:45 Beijing time tonight: the complete zero-knowledge proof for the snapshot taken at midnight on October 31 has been generated, one day earlier than the originally expected November 3. Users can now verify their balances themselves on the reserve proof page for 10 major coins — $BTC, $ETH, $USDT, $BNB, $SOL, $USDC, $XRP, $USD1, $RLUSD, $ZEC — to see if their balances are truly covered 1:1, without having to rely solely on the numbers published by the exchange.
But two points still need to be clarified. First, this snapshot was taken at midnight on October 31, while the withdrawal rush only started on November 1, so it proves the state before the withdrawal rush, not the current state. Second, reserve proof has never been an audit; it only verifies whether the coins at a certain point in time are sufficient, not whether all liabilities are fully covered.
Next, let's look at two things: the next phase of withdrawal recovery on November 3, and the next snapshot covering more coin types on November 4. #Palantir财报前瞻: Can high growth support a high valuation? The core logic of Palantir's current market trend is "sovereign AI," with a surge in the US commercial sector combined with defense orders providing a floor. It has exceeded revenue and profit expectations for multiple consecutive quarters, with outstanding free cash flow and retention rates, forming the foundation for supporting a high valuation. The US government business has strong stickiness, with projects like Maven and TITAN implemented, providing long-term stable orders; on the commercial side, the AIP platform continues to scale, with enterprises showing strong demand for data autonomy and privatized AI, and a sufficient reserve of commercial orders.
The contradiction lies in the valuation premium being fully stretched, with forward valuations almost pricing in all the high growth for the coming years, leaving very little margin for error. It is not standardized software; delivery heavily depends on on-site engineers and leans more towards data consulting, so there is a ceiling to scalable expansion; meanwhile, it faces competitive pressure from major players like Microsoft and OpenAI. If the pace of new commercial contracts slows, the valuation will quickly drop. Additionally, performance is highly tied to the US defense budget, with midterm elections and budget negotiations causing order fluctuations.
Key financial report tracking points: US commercial revenue growth rate, number of new customers, net retention rate, and full-year guidance from management. If guidance is raised and orders continue to grow strongly, there is room to maintain valuation; if growth slows, a double hit to valuation and performance is likely. It is also a high Beta AI stock, so it will fluctuate in line with the Nasdaq and US Treasury yields. $BTC $ETH $SOL $FLR — Flare
Flare focuses on bringing data and interoperability capabilities to blockchain applications. Its approach could support more connected decentralized services. I’m watching developer adoption, data integrations, and whether these tools generate meaningful activity across the ecosystem.$SNDK: Short on the rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 1150-1160 range (EMA5 and previous small platform resistance area) and then enter short.
· The target is first 1117 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then look at the 1100 round number. Set stop loss defense at 1175 (above EMA20).
Core basis:
1. Moving average breakdown and sharp drop: A large bearish candle just appeared on the 1-hour chart, directly piercing through the EMA5/10/20 moving average system, completely destroying the rebound pattern, with strong bearish momentum.
2. Extreme chip pressure: Figure 1 shows the nominal long-short ratio is only 13.13%, with short positions reaching 158 million U (nearly 8 times the longs!). The average short price is 1258, currently making a 90% profit; longs are deeply trapped at 1230 with no counterattack power.
3. Opening liquidity impact: The market is in an open state, with heavy trapped positions in the 1160-1200 area above. The main force can easily use high liquidity to push down with the trend; the rebound is an opportunity to enter short, with an excellent risk-reward ratio.
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 $BIO — Bio Protocol
Decentralized science explores new ways to fund and coordinate research. Bio Protocol is part of this emerging DeSci sector. I’m watching whether its communities can support credible research, transparent funding, and measurable scientific outcomes.Optimism 正在投票改变"谁拿升级钥匙"：安全委员会成员不再选举，改由委员会负责人（Lead）提名，代币持有人只能否决。投票11月4日结束。 现在怎么选：安全委员会每年三次选举（A 组、B 组和 Lead），用赞成投票制。 提案怎么改：Token House 只选 Lead，Lead 可随时被罢免。Lead 按公开标准招募、面试、提名成员，提名前要先过基金会 KYC/KYB。每个提名单独一个"Council Appointment"提案，一周审查加一周否决期，除非 20% 的活跃可投票 OP 投否决，否则自动就任。现任签名人留任到替补确认为止。 基金会的理由：自荐人太少，竞选劝退了最合格的人，代表们也没能力面试候选人。 反对意见：代表 cp0x 估算 20% 约等于 1100 万 OP，相当于今年他们看过的投票总参与量（2000万到2900万 OP）的 38% 到 55%，等于"沉默即同意"。他们建议改成赞成票多于反对票才确认，并加固定任期。luckyhooman.eth 投了反对，理由是权力集中到一个人和他的人脉。 票数：Agora 页面显示赞成约 166 万、反对约 16.6[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Circle is about to report soon. Can the growth of this stablecoin leader really turn into real profits?
Pharaoh says directly, this Circle earnings report superficially tests "how much USDC is issued," but in reality, it tests "how well the interest income is earned."
The logic of how this guy makes money is simple: you exchange real money for its USDC, and it turns around to buy U.S. Treasuries to earn risk-free interest. But now the Federal Reserve is stubbornly holding high interest rates. Everyone originally thought it was making a killing, but the market fears that when the rate cut cycle comes, the interest spread will shrink, and profits will be directly broken. So, there are two key points: one is whether the circulation of USDC can continue to surge and seize Tether's market share; the other is whether it can come up with new ways to make money besides earning interest.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Stablecoins are the "lifeblood pool" of the crypto market. If Circle's earnings report shows a large increase in USDC scale, it means off-exchange funds are still continuously entering through compliant channels, giving the underlying buying power of Bitcoin confidence. But if the earnings report disappoints, it means compliant funds are cautious, which is a blow to the sentiment of the entire crypto community.
Market strategy:
Crcl pullback to the 70-68 range can be a buying opportunity, short-term target near 80, medium to long-term still looking at 90-100, with a stop loss set around 60 $BTC $ETH $SOL #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't get lost!11.2 Let's get to the point: why is this the mid-bear market phase rather than the early bull market?
Fundamentals are one aspect, but technically there are the following points:
1. Trading volume: A bear market bottom must be accompanied by huge trading volume. At the end of 2022, there was massive turnover, but from June until now, trading volume has been sluggish and even gradually shrinking, which is not indicative of an absolute bottom.
2. Accumulation range: Major players accumulate within a narrow consolidation range. For example, in 2022, the accumulation range accounted for less than 20% of the entire downtrend, showing small K-lines; whereas in 2026, this consolidation range accounts for 38% of the entire downtrend with large K-line amplitudes, which is completely unfavorable for accumulation.
3. False breakout: In 2022, after breaking through the 25,000 accumulation range, prices moved away from major players' cost and did not fall back. But in 2026, the breakout above 83,000 was clearly a false breakout, and instead, the monthly K-line engulfed and fell back.$BTC is stuck around 78,000 over the weekend, don’t rush to guess which side will dominate 🤔. What’s really holding the market down is today’s options expiration — market makers, to keep their positions comfortable, will push the spot price toward the strike price where the most options expire worthless, also known as the max pain point 🧲. Weekend liquidity is thin anyway, so just a few orders can pin the price there, making it look like it’s stuck to a magnet.
So don’t use this weekend’s “flat line” to predict next week’s drop 📉. Once volume returns on Monday, this pinning force will dissipate. The calendar for next week is the real focus: US ISM manufacturing data, Wednesday’s midterm elections, and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls — each can trigger volatility 📊⏳.
The weekend is just mute mode; next week the volume turns up 🔊. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Positive news has emerged between $CL and the US, causing the crude oil market to plunge 5% in a short time, while gold rebounded and rose 📈. $ETH saw a slight rebound, but the market clearly shows some weakness, maintaining a bearish outlook.