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This is the BTC Ahr999 bottom-fishing indicator chart. This indicator implies the short-term dollar-cost averaging return rate of $BTC and the deviation between BTC price and its expected valuation.
In recent days, the indicator has dropped as low as 0.44, breaking below the 0.45 red line once again. The latest data shows that on November 2nd, the indicator returned to 0.4616, corresponding to a BTC price of $78.3k. A few days ago, when the indicator was hovering around 0.45, BTC's lowest price had actually touched $76.3k.
Looking back at the areas marked with red circles in the chart, all of them represent the darkest moments when the indicator fell below 0.45. At the end of 2018, early 2020, and the 2022 bear market bottom, these moments looked like bottomless pits at the time, but when viewed over a longer period, they were all golden opportunities to pick up bloodied chips.
The principle is simple, but the actual operation is extremely counterintuitive. This tool is only suitable for holding BTC spot and enduring with plenty of time and patience. If you try to use this indicator to leverage contracts, the market makers will teach you a lesson in minutes—one sharp spike and you'll get liquidated.
Frankly, this indicator is just a range reference. Falling below 0.45 means entering the so-called strike zone, but it doesn't mean it will immediately rise; it might still hover near the bottom and annoy you. In the current market, it's fine to accumulate spot positions gradually, but never go all-in impulsively.
The logic is easy to understand, but execution is difficult. Every time the price drops and everyone panics, that's often when the opportunity looks most like an opportunity. Unfortunately, most people have already cut losses and fled by then—that's human nature.Top platform in prediction markets, but how many unknown issues does it really have? If you only look at trading volume, funding valuation, and social media exposure, Polymarket is undoubtedly one of the most watched platforms in the prediction market space. But if you truly delve into its development process, you'll find that this platform has been accompanied by quite a few controversies along the way. Today, I won't talk about its market size, but rather from the perspective of an actual participant, discuss some issues about Polymarket that deserve attention. 1. Marketing fraud: The so-called huge profits may not exist at all. In June 2026, The Wall Street Journal disclosed an investigation into Polymarket's marketing activities. The report pointed out that Polymarket had cooperated with marketing teams to have social media creators simulate bets on fake trading websites, then film videos of themselves earning huge profits. The Wall Street Journal reviewed 1,105 videos, among which about $1.9 million in bets shown were not real trades. Moreover, 118 videos showed nearly $900,000 in fictitious profits, while according to real market data, these trades would actually have lost more than $166,000. The entire promotional campaign garnered over 140 million views. I believe the most questionable thing here is not the marketing itself, but why a prediction market platform needs to attract users through fictitious profits? 2. Decimal precision and order system: Users want to sell, but may not even be able to submit orders. I have personally experienced this point as well 💥Crude oil plummets below 100, gold remains resilient against the trend! Extreme divergence in commodities, who should Bitcoin listen to? Brothers, take a look at these three market charts; commodities are experiencing extreme divergence, which is a key signal determining Bitcoin's next move! First, look at crude oil, it's plunging rapidly. WTI crude oil (CL) has directly fallen below the $100 mark, dropping nearly 3%; Brent crude oil (BZ) also sharply declined, losing the $109 level. The strangest part is the info on the chart stating "Strait of Hormuz disruption consumed global inventories," which is clearly a major supply-side positive, yet oil prices are crashing. The RSI7 indicator has even been smashed down to extreme oversold zones at 15 and 23! From an expert perspective, this is definitely not a normal correction but rather early bulls cashing out profits frantically or big money pre-trading "demand recession." Extreme oversold conditions may trigger technical rebounds anytime, but don't blindly catch the falling knife! Next, look at gold, XAUT slightly rose 0.6% to $3898, with MACD showing a golden cross near the zero line. While funds avoid crude oil, they still choose gold for hedging. What does this mean for our crypto circle? First, if the oil price drop is due to "demand recession," global risk assets will suffer, and Bitcoin faces heavy resistance at the 78,000 level. Second, if it's merely supply-side maneuvering, the oil price decline can lower inflation expectations, which is actually good for the Fed to cut rates and beneficial for Bitcoin. Next week is the ultimate test with non-farm payroll data and the Fed decision, and commodity volatility is sharplyThe Binance incident happened a few days ago, and $BTC has basically stabilized around 78,000, but the movements of the underlying funds are quite interesting. ETFs saw an outflow of 643 million USD last Friday, the largest single-day outflow since October, but IBIT bucked the trend by absorbing 177 million USD. The accumulation speed of large whale addresses is still the fastest since February [reference:0]. On one hand, ETFs are selling, on the other, big holders are buying; the money hasn't left, it just changed pockets. $ETH is a bit weaker, hovering around 2250, with ETH ETFs losing value for five consecutive days. Institutions clearly only recognize BTC, not ETH.
The A-shares market really expanded today, with a volume of 1.78 trillion, 109.2 billion more than last Friday. The ChiNext Index closed up 1.87%, with over a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit. AI manga and short drama media are the absolute stars, with Jieceng, Mango Excellent Media, and Guomai Culture all surging by 20cm in volume. In big finance, Guojin and Pacific Securities also hit the limit, and Baijiu stocks joined the rally. Money is rushing out of safe havens quite urgently.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Tech Index closed up 2.25%, with Yuewen up over 15%, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Kuaishou all rising together. Media and semiconductor sectors are both pulling up. In the US pre-market, semiconductors are correcting; SK Hynix rose about 4.5%, $NVDA up 1.36%, but oil prices collapsed, with WTI falling below 100 intraday, while gold climbed back to 3900. It's quite contradictory, chasing chips while avoiding commodities.70 billion market cap wiped out: Another veteran giant has gone bankrupt
Getty Images. When it went public in 2022, its market cap once exceeded 11 billion USD, about 73 billion RMB. Last week, it officially filed for bankruptcy restructuring, wiping out the equity of old shareholders.
On the surface, it looks like AI knocked it down, but AI was just the last straw. Getty made its living selling licensed images, charging around ten dollars per license, while AI-generated images cost just a few cents. General stock photo clients directly use models to generate images. Creative images account for more than half of its revenue, and subscription users dropped from 321,000 to 241,000.
The real killer was debt. As of June 2026, total debt was about 2.1 billion USD, with only 51.6 million in cash on hand. In the first half of the year, interest payments alone exceeded 110 million. The merger with Shutterstock to save itself also failed; UK regulators imposed conditions that were not agreed upon, burning over 100 million in cash.
It wasn’t knocked out by AI in one punch. When AI changed the demand structure, the debt had already piled up to the neck. Once revenue loosened and cash flow was cut off, the whole structure collapsed. "Everything is fine" CORE: vulnerabilities fixed only to reappear, contributors leaving one after another, only announcements remain perpetually healthy
In early September, Core DAO experienced a reward vulnerability causing a few validators to receive excess tokens. The official response was a hard fork fix, destroying about 150 million excess tokens issued, but confirmed transactions were not rolled back, and the excess CORE tokens were not forcibly reclaimed. Exchanges like Coinbase and Bitget simultaneously suspended deposits and withdrawals, directly cutting off liquidity.
More critically, CORE is driven by anonymous contributors, with an opaque team identity, and tokens are continuously released via linear unlocking. When ecosystem buybacks can't outpace unlocking sell pressure, and announcements always claim "the network is fine" while prices keep hitting new lows, trust erodes like chronic bleeding.
It may not go to zero immediately, but it is already in a "semi-zombie" state.$ZEC : Internal conflicts within the Zcash ecosystem have put major holders in an increasingly difficult position. The community's decision to redirect development funds toward charitable activities has sparked controversy, reportedly upsetting influential figures such as Naval and the Winklevoss twins. Meanwhile, several large holders are expressing intentions to liquidate their positions. Following an impressive 700% rally earlier this year, substantial unrealized profits have accumulated. HowLooking at Meta's cash flow statement for Q3, there's a change more direct than the financing headline: no common stock repurchases this quarter, whereas about $3.3 billion was repurchased in the same period last year.
For shareholders, the change in capital allocation has already occurred. The company is retaining more resources for expansion, reducing the intensity of returning funds through buybacks in the short term.
This is also one perspective on understanding the credit outlook downgrade. Rating agencies worry about future spending and cash flow, while shareholders need to judge whether reducing current returns in exchange for future AI business growth is worthwhile.
Pausing buybacks can certainly preserve funds and is a reasonable choice when necessary. But if the scale of investment continues to expand, relying solely on fewer buybacks may not be enough to cover all needs. How to arrange spending, financing, and shareholder returns afterward will become increasingly difficult to balance.
I do not want the company to give up valuable investments just to maintain buybacks. But management also needs to gradually provide evidence to show shareholders what results these investments are producing.
Meta has a mature advertising business, which is an advantage; precisely because the existing business is already profitable, the return requirements for new investments should not be relaxed.
The coming years can be grand in vision, but the funds in the account must be paid out bit by bit. Regarding this round of AI expansion, I will remain hopeful but also carefully observe what shareholders have temporarily given up for the sake of expansion.
#Meta信用展望转负，AI投资信用风险受关注 97 million $CORE tokens stolen, official response: the network is operating normally. Translation: Your coins are gone, but the chain is still running.
Although this statement is harsh, it accurately summarizes the embarrassment of the Core DAO September excessive token claim incident.
As of November 2, CORE is priced at about $0.014, down more than 99% from its all-time high, with a circulating market cap of only about $14 million.
In early September, Core DAO exposed a reward vulnerability where a few validators received CORE rewards far exceeding the protocol's set amount. The official team then initiated a hard fork fix, destroying about 150 million excessively issued tokens, and emphasized "user asset security."
But the problems are:
No rollback of confirmed transactions: The tokens claimed in violation were not forcibly recovered, only the excessive issuance was stopped.
The scale of over-issuance is not fully transparent: The official team has yet to disclose the duration of the vulnerability or whether any chips have entered the secondary market.
Exchanges suspended deposits and withdrawals: Five major platforms including Coinbase, Bithumb, and Bitget simultaneously restricted operations, directly cutting off liquidity.
Trust has been damaged: The excessive token claims by validators are essentially a consensus layer vulnerability, more fatal than ordinary DeFi attacks.
The subtext of "the network is operating normally" is: the chain hasn't stopped, but trust has. When a public chain can't even control its own reward distribution, no narrative can sustain the price.This news goes against the bullish sentiment, so I remain cautious. An address unstaked 3.9 million $LIT two days ago, then transferred it to addresses like OKX, with the transfer valued at about $12.21 million.
I follow three rules for trends: watch the direction—transfers don’t necessarily mean a downtrend; watch volume and price—potential selling pressure needs to be confirmed by the market; don’t jump the gun—unlocked tokens can weigh on sentiment but don’t mean they’ve been sold yet.
The trend is the best friend; I wait for confirmation. When you see such large transfers, do you rely on trading volume or key levels to judge the trend?What exactly is gold trading this year? It's no longer the old script of "rising in chaotic times."
In previous years, it was a triple resonance of rate cut expectations + central bank buying + geopolitical safe haven, with pullbacks as buying opportunities; this year the main theme has shifted to "interest rate expectations fluctuating repeatedly" — the US economy is relatively resilient, rate cuts are repeatedly delayed, US Treasuries and the dollar are strong, and non-yielding gold is being pressed down.
Geopolitical news is now just pulses: spikes are immediately realized, making it hard to sustain a one-sided move. High-level chips are stacked, and rebounds easily encounter profit-taking distributions.
So don’t mistake technical corrections for the start of a new bull market. Long-term central bank gold purchases still provide support, but in the short term, you have to respect interest rates threefold. $XAU #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值
Palantir reported earnings after the market closed on Monday. The market expects revenue of 2.18 billion, up 85% year-over-year, with an EPS of 0.41, doubling from last year. The second quarter just posted a strong revenue growth of 93%, with the US commercial segment soaring 149%.
But the issue is not growth, it's valuation. The stock is now expected to have a price-to-earnings ratio close to 90, while the S&P 500 is only at 19. Morgan Stanley put it bluntly: the earnings report will likely beat expectations again, but the valuation has already priced in all the good news, leaving very little margin for error; a pullback is the real opportunity to buy in.
So don’t just look at whether revenue beat or not. The real focus should be on two things: whether the 149% growth in the US commercial segment can hold up, as the Q2 base has already risen nearly 30 points, maintaining 140% would be considered good; and whether the guidance for Q4 dares to be raised again. If growth slows down or the guidance is weak, the 90x P/E won’t be kind to you.The sell-off just started and people are already shouting 82,000? I choose to stand on the short side first and wait for the rebound to show flaws.
The evening sell-off just kicked off, BTC and ETH rebounded simultaneously, and the bulls have pushed the narrative to "BTC will reach 82,000." But I'm not in a hurry to chase this rally; instead, I'm more focused on whether the rebound has volume and capital flow support.
As of 2026-11-02, BTC is about 78,049 USDT, with a 24-hour range of 77,620—78,878 USDT; the 1-hour MACD is still in a death cross state, the price is below the 7/25/99-hour moving averages, and the latest trading volume is only 0.47 times the 7-hour average volume. ETH is about 2,293 USDT, the moving average structure is temporarily bullish, but the MACD just showed a death cross, and net capital outflow is about -9.65%, indicating there is still divergence during the upward push.
I'm shorting not because I'm certain of a drop, but because I see this rebound as a repair that needs verification: if BTC cannot firmly stand above the short-term moving averages again and volume remains low, the rebound may lack sustainability; if there is a volume breakout above recent highs and it drives ETH capital inflow, the short logic needs to be reconsidered. Previously, the market was still digesting security incidents, capital flows, and disturbances from US stock risk appetite, so volatility may further increase.
The above is only market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Don't rush, don't rush! It's coming! Many friends should have already seen this news: Trump stated that he is willing to negotiate an agreement with Iran, but at the same time, he also issued harsh words.
The market has been betting on the Middle East conflict continuing to push oil prices higher. Now that expectations for easing have emerged, the bulls suddenly got nervous.
Recently, crude oil has been fluctuating back and forth; after surging, the momentum clearly can't keep up. Most of the positive factors have been largely priced in, making it difficult to continue rising based on conflict news alone.
As long as negotiation expectations remain, funds will start to take profits early. $BTC
The short-term outlook is bearish; any rebound is an opportunity to short. Don't blindly chase longs betting on conflict escalation.
There is heavy resistance above; once sentiment shifts, there will be room for oil prices to fall!
#Liquid发布紧急修复，网络进入分阶段恢复 $CL #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 $BTW 10% profit already pocketed, precisely bottomed out at 0.90!
Brothers, this script of others panicking while I’m greedy was nailed perfectly!
This afternoon, a massive unlock dumped the market, the candlestick even hit 0.9001, the market was a bloodbath. But we lightly tested around 0.90 on the rebound, the logic being that all the bad news was released at once!
And the result? Bulls launched a strong counterattack, price shot up like a rocket, surging all the way to 1.0370! This move is textbook panic bottoming.
What’s next?
In the short term, momentum near 1.03 is exhausted, likely to pull back to test support around 0.98 - 1.00. Everyone be patient and wait for it to retest and stabilize before buying the second wave.
But in the big picture, just hold on! Once it breaks above 1.3 with volume, the upside opens up directly, with long-term targets aiming at 1.7 or even higher!
$ETH $SOL #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Empty talkers are always right; doers are full of flaws; onlookers are always clear-headed; participants suffer criticism!
No one remembers the correct analysis, only the mistakes are remembered.
What is never done in trading is always right; execution is the biggest problem in trading.
1. Review of last Friday's market trend:
Gold was weak on Friday, as clearly stated in the article. It continued to fall in the morning, the rebound broke down again, and the 38.2% retracement rebound was at 4000, with the highest rebound at 4010 before falling back.
The European session broke the bottom touching 3965, with the 38.2% rebound at 3991. This is the position to watch for continuation; the earlier the break in the European session, the better the continuation in the US session.
Friday was extremely weak, which is a standard weak market. Short-term trading uses logical methods to find key positions. This is how short-term traders plan ahead and set the intraday rhythm to execute accordingly.
2. Core idea for tonight's session:
Friday was extremely weak, with daily, weekly, and monthly candles all large bearish. Short-term trading should not be bullish now. The bottom of a big drop usually accelerates downward for 3-5 days, and today is the third day of the rebound correction falling with daily acceleration. Going long must wait for a stop in the decline and a daily close above key resistance. Today is still a rebound in a weak trend!
Focus on the upper 38.2% resistance at 3920. Whether it can continue to fall weakly today depends on not breaking 3940 before the US session. If 3940 breaks, today will be a choppy rebound correction.
For short-term, aggressively watch 3920 for a pullback, targeting to fill the 3870 gap. If it breaks and does not recover, watch for continuation at 3830!The main players today have changed for $BTC $SOL $ETH: the leader is no longer  BNB.
Market facts: According to CoinGecko data at about 02:40 UTC on November 2, $BNB was priced at $712.50, up 1.39% in 24 hours, the strongest among major coins; meanwhile, $BTC was at $78,363, up 0.88%, $ETH at $2,291, up 1.06%, and only $SOL was still down, at $94.86, down 0.70%, down 6.43% for the week. $BNB's market cap is about $93.7 billion, still ranking fourth, about 1.67 times that of $SOL.
Why did $BNB lead the way? The direct reason lies in Binance's recovery progress. Binance stated in its recovery update that it has replenished about 95% of the stolen amount, higher than the previous 90%, and the top ten assets including $BTC,  BNB, $SOL, etc., are all 100% fully backed, with the remaining about 5% being less liquid tokens still being arranged. After the phased withdrawal resumption on November 1, the initial surge in withdrawals has subsided. The market interprets this as: the platform token was first "self-certified safe" to hold up, rather than a sudden improvement in fundamentals. Bottoming and Recovery Phase: BTC Bulls and Bears in Standoff, SOL Warned of Whale Selling Pressure
After the Binance hack incident, market sentiment has been slowly recovering, but with the dual tests of the non-farm payroll and midterm elections approaching, major cryptocurrencies are generally in a consolidation and bottoming phase.
BTC: Increasing divergence between bulls and bears. Current price is about $77,900, with short-term resistance at $78,600; only a stable break above this level would indicate structural improvement. Capital flow shows opposition: ETFs have seen a net outflow of about $859 million over the past 6 days, but whale holdings have increased to 3.03 million coins at the fastest pace since February. The sustainability of the rebound depends on whether spot buying can follow through.
ETH: Technically weak. Current price is about $2,290, RSI is only 34.8, in a weak zone, with clear resistance from moving averages above. However, one address spent 34.69 million USDC to buy 15,216 ETH at an average price of about $2,279, indicating some funds are actively accumulating at the current level.
SOL: Potential selling pressure looming. Current price is about $94.36, down 0.31% in 24 hours, approaching the 14-day low. On the news front, a certain whale has deposited 1.49 million SOL (about $149 million) into multiple exchanges over the past 10 days, creating potential selling pressure; although the ecosystem's Q3 revenue is nearly $300 million, up 50% quarter-on-quarter, short-term pressure from whale movements remains.
BTC bottoming, ETH recovering, SOL under pressure; the market is unlikely to have a trending move before macro data is released, making position management more important than directional judgment.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Binance was hacked for 6.3 billion USD, yet $BTC has risen for three consecutive days to 70,086. However, ETFs saw a net outflow of 640 million USD last Friday, while the accumulation speed of large whale addresses is the fastest since February. ETFs are selling, big holders are buying, the tug-of-war is quite clear.
Altcoins are no longer following Bitcoin. The lending sector rose 7.25% in 24 hours, $UNI gained 18% in a week to 7.31, $AAVE was repriced. Money is selectively buying assets with income and products; memes are just swinging along.
The A-share market saw both volume and price rise today. The ChiNext Index closed up 1.87%, with a turnover of 1.78 trillion and an increase of over 100 billion in volume. AI manga drama concepts hit 20% daily limit in batches, Mango Excellent Media and Jetion Holdings were fully locked up, and Baijiu and major financial sectors also lifted the market.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Tech Index closed up 2.25%, Xiaomi rose over 6%, with tech and brokerage sectors gaining momentum together. In pre-market US trading, semiconductors are recovering from last Friday's plunge; SK Hynix rose about 4.5%, Nvidia up 1.36%, but oil prices collapsed, WTI fell below 100 intraday. Money is chasing chips while avoiding commodities, quite a contradiction.🔥BTC has already rebounded from $76,265 to above $78,000, but is this rally a reversal or just a breather after the decline? For now, I choose to observe cautiously.😐 The one-hour candlestick chart seems to be gradually rising, but the volume does not show obvious support, especially compared to the surge in volume during the previous sharp drop; this rebound lacks active buying pressure.
📉 What does this mean? Bears taking profits might provide short-term support for the price, but covering shorts does not equal new funds continuously entering the market. To truly reverse the trend, we need to see improved volume and effective breakthroughs of key resistance levels, not just a slow price climb.
📍 My observation focuses on three levels: $77,800–$78,000 is the first short-term support; holding this level means the structure can still be repaired; $77,000 is the bulls’ defensive line—if broken, watch out for a retest of the previous low at $76,265; $78,900–$79,200 is the core resistance zone above.
⚠️ Previously, BTC’s highest rebound near $78,866 was followed by a pullback, indicating significant selling pressure above. Only if volume expands and BTC stabilizes above $79,200 will I consider further targets at $79,500 and even $80,000; if the rally is on shrinking volume, beware of a false breakout.
My plan is to lightly observe after stabilization near $78,000, control risk promptly if key support is lost, and avoid chasing highs blindly before holding above $79,200. Tonight’s battle between bulls and bears—do you think the buying pressure can truly connect? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The three words "common stock" make me think that they deserve more attention than the repurchase amount. Metaplanet disclosed its repurchase execution in October, but it bought its own shares, not Bitcoin.
My judgment is that this news has a more direct emotional impact on the company's shareholders and should not be casually counted as a positive for $BTC. From the company's perspective, the repurchase might be intended to reassure shareholders, but the motive cannot be guessed; from the onlooker's perspective, fear especially makes it easy to interpret real money as "someone backing it." If this sense of security is then spread to the entire Bitcoin treasury sector, I think the necessary logic is skipped.
I also need to reflect: am I more prone to confirmation bias adding drama to the announcement the more I seek certainty 🫠? When you see this repurchase, is your first reaction "relieved" or "worried about cash being tied up"? Why?Marvell is acquiring Lumentum in an all-stock deal, with Lumentum shareholders receiving 4.5 shares of Marvell for each Lumentum share. After the transaction, Marvell's existing shareholders will hold 67%, and Lumentum shareholders will hold 33%. The implied enterprise value is approximately $115 billion, representing a premium of about 24%. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2028, pending approval from both companies' shareholders and regulatory authorities.
What is Marvell aiming for? Lumentum's lasers are the bottleneck in AI data center optical interconnects; the CEO has mentioned that their optical components are fully booked through early 2029. Marvell is already a major customer of Lumentum, so it decided to acquire its supplier and take control of the bottleneck.
However, the market is skeptical. After the news broke, Marvell's stock price dropped. Since this is an all-stock transaction, Lumentum shareholders receive Marvell shares, so any decline in Marvell's stock price reduces the actual consideration. More troubling is that Lumentum owns an optical module business, and the module manufacturers who buy Marvell chips now effectively have a competitor's parent company as their supplier. Stifel has warned that this could cause Marvell to lose market share.
Therefore, while the deal makes strategic sense, the cost and risk of customer loss are enough to keep the market cautious for a while. $LITE
At 20:00, the 15-minute candle for LITE had a trading volume 17 times that of the previous one. The price jumped straight from 865 to 939, now around 915.
Mywell announced a full stock acquisition of Lumentum. The acquired side rose 7.8%, the buyer surged 3.3%, then the entire 15-minute gain was given back, and it's still in the red now.
I've seen this reaction many times. Full stock deals mean using your own stock as cash; the market first prices in dilution, then synergy, and after calculation, sells off.
Now about the contracts. LITE perpetual fee rate is 0.296%, longs are paying crazily. The open interest is only 4.04 million USD, pitifully small. Such a pool can have its fee rate pushed up by a single large order, don't take it as an institutional stance.
Tokenized stocks playing M&A news have slippage more deadly than direction. The 20:00 candle fluctuated $74 up and down; chasing at market price, the spread plus slippage is enough to cover a meal.
My small account won't join the frenzy; chasing in would not even cover the slippage.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC
From 84168 to 77982, the October monthly candle closed at -7.35%. October has been a losing month for two consecutive years.
I skimmed the news and saw that 21shares' Q3 report said the demand structure has changed, with spot ETFs replacing listed companies as the main buyers. I believe that only halfway. Those DAT companies rely on issuing bonds to buy coins, and they stop when interest rates rise; ETFs are driven by subscriptions, so clients buy whenever they want.
But the market hasn't cooperated. BTC is now at 78070, with a 24-hour range from 77600 to 78866, a volatility of 1.62%. The perpetual funding rate is 0.0039%, open interest is 2.61 billion, and no one seems to be running. The news also said Binance's USDT reserves dropped 7.95% in a week, down to 29.48 billion.
The buyers have changed, but money is actually flowing out. These two facts are not contradictory. ETFs don't look at intraday; they follow a monthly subscription rhythm, so using that to explain a 4-hour candle is pointless.
My own judgment: bottoms aren't guessed like this. The so-called Uptober narrative was made up by survivors; after two years of declines, the story no longer holds. With the current volatility, going long or short just pays fees to the exchange.
Let it choose its own direction.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🔥The biggest fear is not that BTC won't rise, but that the price rises without real buying support!😑 In the past two days, BTC has rebounded from a phase low, and market sentiment has eased somewhat, but Coinbase premium data remains weak: currently at -0.16%, negative premium for 40 consecutive days, with a one-year percentile of only 1.1%.
📉This data signal deserves attention. The price rebound indicates a shift in short-term buying and selling forces, but the premium has not improved in sync, meaning that relative demand in the US spot market has not yet significantly increased. At least from this indicator, this round of rally still lacks strong confirmation from US buyers.
🧭I believe there is no need to rush to conclusions about the market now. Negative premium does not necessarily mean BTC will fall, and a short-term rebound does not mean the trend has reversed. What really matters is whether we can see sustained capital inflows afterward, rather than the market becoming optimistic just because the price occasionally spikes.
Tonight, the focus is on the performance after the US stock market opens: if the premium gradually narrows, it indicates demand may be improving; if it remains deeply negative, beware that the rebound might just be a short-term correction. Do you think we should continue to be bullish now, or wait for capital signals to confirm? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $SOL Today's SOL market trend is mainly characterized by "reduced volume oscillation and waiting for a breakout." For traders, patience is more important than prediction. It is recommended to closely monitor the breakout direction in the $93-$96 range and avoid frequent operations that consume principal during narrow oscillations. Long-term holders can ignore short-term fluctuations and focus on the value return brought by ecological development.#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ 本周美国市场又将迎来一项重磅数据：10月非农就业报告。 11月6日，美国劳工统计局将公布10月非农就业数据。市场真正关注的，不只是新增就业人数，而是这份报告会不会进一步强化美联储12月加息的理由。 为什么这次非农如此重要？ 1. 美联储态度正在发生变化 10月28日，美联储将利率维持在3.75%—4.00%，但值得注意的是，有两位官员明确支持加息25个基点。 这说明美联储内部对通胀的担忧仍然存在，政策重心正在从单纯关注就业，转向更加重视通胀风险。 目前市场对12月加息的预期明显升温，已经不能排除进一步收紧货币政策的可能。 2. 非农数据将成为重要验证 此前9月美国新增非农就业仅2.9万人，失业率维持在4.2%。 如果10月新增就业明显回升，同时薪资增速保持韧性，说明美国劳动力市场仍然具有支撑力，美联储可能更有理由维持紧缩立场，甚至进一步加息。 反过来，如果就业明显降温、失业率上升，12月加息预期就可能降温。 3. 对BTC和美股意味着什么？ 我认为，这次非农最值得关注的是美元和美债收益率的变化。 如果数据强于预期： 美元可能走强，美债收益率上行，市场🤯 Unexpected twist: 97 million tokens stolen, 70% recovered, but holders are even more anxious
On-chain data shows that Core completed a hard fork recovery today, retrieving 68.146 million CORE from three attack addresses, accounting for 70.22% of the total involved.
The key is that there was no transaction rollback, no token minting, and the total supply remains unchanged. Few theft incidents end this cleanly from a technical perspective.
But don’t rush to celebrate: out of 97.0456 million tokens involved, 28.8994 million are still outstanding; the frozen portion is under recovery, and the recovered funds have not yet reached users.
Recovering 70% is a technical victory, but it does not equal compensating 70%. The market prices not how much is recovered, but when it will be credited. A hard fork can change code, but not trust. The remaining 29.78% and the undisclosed refund plan are the real challenges.
Market is weak: BTC 77,888 is grinding between 76,540-80,000; only breaking above 80,000 will be promising; ETH 2,286 is rebounding, with 2,317 as resistance.
📊 Investment advice
• BTC — Bearish
Take Profit (TP): $71,660
Stop Loss (SL): $84,120
• ETH — Bullish
Take Profit (TP): $2,560
Stop Loss (SL): $2,012
⚠️ Disclaimer: The above are personal views only and do not constitute investment advice. The market is volatile; please DYOR and bear your own risk.#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 On Friday night after 10 PM, I was watching the gold price for a while. $3,876, the lowest in a year, down 3.5% in one day. On the same night, the Nasdaq dropped 2.86%, and Bitcoin hovered around seventy-eight thousand. My first reaction was: how could gold fall like this? Later I realized. Gold itself is fine; the problem is that someone urgently needs cash. Tech stocks crashed badly that day. Intel fell 28.6% in one day, AMD dropped 10.9%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.2%, and the Nasdaq has dropped 7.8% since its record high on October 6. Fund net values followed the pullback, and margin calls came in. At this time, fund managers don’t choose "which to sell" but "which can be sold." Gold has the best liquidity, it sells immediately; Bitcoin is open 24/7, the second to be sold. Real estate, private equity, and unlisted shares that are actually held couldn’t move that night. So that night can’t be considered a failure of safe haven. Safe haven assets also queue up; first sell what can be sold. The data makes it clearer. Gold’s record in January this year was 5,595, the lowest on Friday was 3,876, a 30% pullback. Bitcoin dropped from 126,080 to 77,770 this morning, a 37.9% pullback, even deeper than gold. The Nasdaq only pulled back 7.8%. Putting these three numbers together, you know how tight the money is this round—even the line that fell the least was supported by selling gold to get cash. Gold bounced back a bit this morning. The rebound of Bitcoin is very weak; it can't go beyond 78,800 — the market will still face another major drop next.
Binance is now gradually resuming withdrawals. In the past period, there was a net outflow of $3.6 billion, which is now gradually decreasing. People's panic is also easing. What is now missing is an investigation report on Binance; once that is done, this matter will be temporarily settled.
The current market risk signals are: large-scale outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs, especially ETH, which has had daily net outflows for a whole month, and BTC had a single-day outflow of $643 million;
Additionally, the stablecoin market cap is continuously declining, with USDT and USDC combined decreasing by about $1.2 billion.
Both of these are fundamental blows. The basic logic for price increases is: new funds continuously flowing in. But now the situation is the opposite: the main players are withdrawing capital and fleeing.
Under these circumstances, any market rebound can only be the main players using the opportunity to attract retail investors to take over positions while they sell off.
Now is the time to sell spot positions in batches and short on contract rebounds — bottom fishing should wait until Bitcoin starts with a 6.
Anyone urging you to go all-in long is trying to get you to get hit by the lightning together — you should stay away from them. $BTC The market has rebounded, but everyone should note, the bears still dominate!
Chart 1 shows the long and short positions across the entire market; the major coins $BTC $ETH $SOL are all dominated by bears. The hyperliquid top traders are even more extreme, with 80% being bears (Chart 2).
BTC is grinding at the 78,000 round number; above, the 80,500–82,000 range is a resistance zone pressed down by the 20-day moving average, and below, 76,000 overlaps with the 200-day moving average, which is the bulls' last stand.
BTC's RSI has dropped to around 36—not oversold, but indicating no buyers.
ETH is the strongest among the three today, climbing from 2,250 back up to 2,300, leading the rally. But the foundation is still fractured: spot ETF funds retreated 156 million the day before yesterday, while on-chain activity is strengthening but institutions are withdrawing.
This divergence of strong on-chain activity and weak ETF for ETH—if it can't close above 2,300, I consider it a bull trap.
SOL is the dullest today, hovering around 95, RSI at 30.5 is close to oversold, yet no funds are coming in to catch it. SOL is fundamentally strong but was oversold mistakenly; however, it is locked down short-term by macro factors. When risk appetite returns, it should lead; for now, you can accumulate a bit at low levels.
The previous low at 92.3 is a strong support; as long as it holds above 90, there’s not much problem. Oversold conditions could trigger a technical rebound above 100 (7-day moving average) at any time.HYPE at $86, ICE has delivered the invitation right to your face, and you still don't dare to accept?
The parent company of NYSE just signed an agreement with Hyperliquid, HYPE surged 15% approaching 100, now it has pulled back to 86, down 2.5% in 24 hours — is this a retreat to pick up passengers, or has the good news been fully priced in?
Let's look at the surface first: the news exploded, but the price is falling.
On October 29, ICE (the parent company of NYSE) announced the launch of a CFTC-regulated perpetual contract market in the US for retail, based on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 framework. Once the news came out, HYPE immediately surged over 15%, hitting 97.96, just a breath away from ATH. Then? It dropped back to 86. Down 2.5% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 1.1 billion and a market cap just over 20 billion.
Are you panicking?
Such a big cooperation with ICE, why did it only rise for one day?
First thing: ICE is not here to speculate on coins, it's here to grab territory.
The ICE CEO once said: "Hyperliquid's daily trading volume has already surpassed Nasdaq."
Then they didn't build their own chain, didn't invest in a competitor, but directly used Hyperliquid's technical framework to launch compliant perpetual contracts in the US.
In plain language: Wall Street's oldest exchange is telling the world — the future of on-chain perpetual contracts, I bet on Hyperliquid.
This is not just a "cooperation". This is traditional finance handing DeFi a compliance entry ticket. Whether CFTC approves or not is another matter, but the direction is set.
The same signal appeared in 2020 with Bitcoin ETFs — no one believed it then, but later everyone regretted missing out.
Second thing: the pullback is not bad news, it's the last chance for those who haven't boarded.
First, understand why it fell.
When ICE's news came out, short-term traders rushed in, 15% profit, not running would be foolish. Plus the poor market environment — BTC hovering around 78,000, Fear & Greed index at 37, fear zone, risk assets under pressure overall. No matter how strong HYPE is, it has to catch its breath.
But look at the key level: 85-86, exactly the current price and short-term support.
Below that, 80-82, and further down 76-78 are strong support zones.
As long as 76 doesn't break, the structure is intact.
Also note a detail: the pullback is on low volume. Not a panic sell-off, but normal profit-taking.
What is a healthy pullback? This is it.
Third thing: HYPE's deflationary flywheel is what you should focus on.
ICE's news will be digested, sentiment will fade, but one thing keeps spinning:
For every fee Hyperliquid collects, 99% goes into the Assistance Fund, which automatically buys back HYPE and burns it.
30-day revenue exceeds $65 million, with daily fees around $1.5 million. The value of HYPE already bought back and burned is in the billions.
Compare this:
Most L1s talk about deflation as "will burn in the future."
HYPE's deflation is real money buying on the market every day.
Arthur Hayes calls for 150, not because of ICE, but because he calculated clearly: as long as Hyperliquid remains the king of perpetual contracts, this flywheel won't stop.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
ICE cooperation, compliance narrative ceiling opened
If CFTC approves, US retail market direct access
Deflationary flywheel continues, $65 million+ revenue in 30 days
Pullback on low volume, strong support at 76-78 intact
Only 12% from ATH, price discovery after breakout
On the other side:
CFTC approval uncertain, may fluctuate before landing
BTC market weak, Fear & Greed 37
Recent contributor unlocks, selling pressure exists
Whale movements unstable, some top traders turning bearish
If 86 doesn't hold, may retest 76-78
Key levels
Resistance above: 88-90 → 93-95 → 97-98 (ATH) → 100
Support below: 85-86 (current) → 80-82 → 76-78 (iron bottom)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Light long positions at 85-86, stop loss at 83-84, first target 88-90, sell half at target. Stop if volume surges below 85, wait to buy again at 76-78. Leverage no more than 3-5x, watch for liquidation on perpetuals.
Mid-term players:
Build positions gradually in 76-82 range, stop loss below 70, target retest 98, breakout target 110-120. Keep position size 5-10% of total funds, don't go all in.
Long-term believers:
Hold core positions. If ICE + CFTC really land, HYPE's ceiling is not 100, but the traditional finance perpetual contract market. But remember: news-driven coins are volatile, don't chase highs, don't go full, survival is key to catch the main uptrend.
ICE has delivered the compliance invitation to Hyperliquid's door, CFTC hasn't signed yet, and you're already scared to hand over your chips.
Before Bitcoin ETF passed in 2020, 99% thought "regulation won't come."
When it did, the train had already left.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE #PalantirQ3Valuation
Palantir’s valuation has skyrocketed to a dangerous 100x+ forward P/E, making any post-earnings correction highly likely. Wall Street's expectations are so massive that just meeting targets won't cut it anymore. Even a tiny dip in corporate client growth will trigger a massive sell-off by big fund managers rushing to lock in profits, sending the stock crashing.
$PLTR On the US stock side, there are already 50 companies "boycotting" OKXICE's stock tokenization, including giants like Nvidia, Walmart, and Micron.
The reason is actually quite awkward; it's not that they truly oppose tokenization, but OKXICE is too focused on compliance.
Robinhood, bStocks, Dinari, xStocks basically have no formal objection process; they either operate offshore for risk avoidance or simply hold traditional brokerage licenses.
OKXICE, on the other hand, insists on a 30-day written objection window, where sending a letter costs nothing and can definitely block it.
It's like everyone else is dating casually, but OKXICE, the honest one, insists on a formal marriage before getting intimate. As a result, on the wedding night, 50 fathers-in-law welded the door shut...The old hands on $BTC Hyperliquid are no longer pretending.
PCE just landed, and the previously easy-earning long whales immediately dumped 1,200 BTC long positions and took off full.
Then you see another giant whale ramping up BTC short positions to $125 million, making it the largest short position on the entire chain.
The main force just pulled out their ladder, and billions in funds immediately capped the top.
The market is clearly laid out like this, yet some stubbornly think it's just a shakeout—it's purely rushing to provide liquidity to others.
#BTC
$BTC
👇The market was super quiet the night before the election, but I actually think this kind of quiet is the most frightening.....
Last Friday, BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $643 million, the largest day since June. The OKX long-short account ratio is still 2.26, but the large holders' long-short ratio is only 0.92, leaning bearish. Retail investors are rushing in, while big players are hiding!?
The US midterm election results will probably start coming out Wednesday morning (Taiwan time). I’m watching the 76,326 level—if it breaks below, better step aside; if it holds above 78,878, then look toward 81,971 🤣
#美國期中選舉在即，哪些結果值得關注？ Wow, where did such a bold whale/institution come from?! Over $42.4 million worth of $ETH heavily bought on-chain in two hours 😲
Address 0x9Ec…15547 bought 18,643.42 ETH on-chain in the past 2 hours at an average price of $2274, and is still continuously buying in batches. Its USDC funding sources are Kraken and Crypto.com, ownership is currently unclear
Address 0x9EcA05D78f6751C91Ab048858b7d21a67C015547$BTC has been stuck around 78,000 for a whole day. ETFs ran off with 640 million USD last Friday. The fear and greed index is still at 34 in the fear zone, but the whales quietly increased their holdings to 3.03 million coins. ETFs are selling, big players are buying, and both sides are at odds. For $ETH, someone really put real money down: one address spent 62.97 million USD in 5 hours to buy 27,553 coins at an average price of 2,286, which is much more straightforward than BTC's side.
The A-share market saw both volume and price rise today. The ChiNext Index closed up 1.87%, with a turnover of 1.78 trillion, over 100 billion more than last Friday. AI manga drama concepts hit the 20% daily limit in batches, with Jieting and Mango Excellent Media fully locked up. Baijiu and big financial sectors also joined the rally, with over a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Tech Index surged 2.85% by midday. Xiaomi and CATL rose over 6%, and tech stocks collectively recovered. In pre-market US trading, semiconductors are also adjusting; SK Hynix rose nearly 5%, $NVDA up 1.47%, Nasdaq futures up 0.84%, but oil prices crashed over 4%. Money is chasing tech while avoiding commodities, which is quite contradictory.#AMD Earnings Preview: HeliosAI System Commercialization Progress
The leader has something to say
AMD will release its Q3 earnings after the US market close on November 3rd; this was covered today, so no repetition.
Today AMD rose slightly by 0.25%, xAMD up 0.16%, with funds mostly on the sidelines.
The core issue now is macro deleveraging. Yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7.2%, and tech stocks were indiscriminately sold off. Even if AMD's earnings are outstanding and the Helios system commercialization goes smoothly, as long as the overall environment is liquidity contraction, funds will use positive news as an opportunity to sell. So, don't just look at whether earnings beat expectations; see if it can withstand macro selling pressure.
Bitcoin fell below 77,000 last night and is still grinding below. Watch if it can reclaim 80,000. If it can't hold, expect deeper corrections, with resistance between 84,000 and 85,000 above. Don't chase the rally or panic sell; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set your stop losses. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SOL SOXL The most expensive one didn't accomplish anything, the cheapest one took two bearish candles.
09:00 Spent 316,000 contracts rushing to 82.52, closed at 80.32, upper/lower shadows 2.15/0.51 — the biggest money was trapped on both ends, wasted effort. 11:00 Spent another 113,000 contracts to grind up to 82.93.
The whole afternoon went down: 14:00 118,000 contracts smashed from 82.68 to 81.16, 15:00 136,000 contracts, 18:00 123,000 contracts, sent back to 80.26.
20:00 These sixteen minutes were different: 130,000 contracts first dipped to 79.84 then pulled back to 81.84, closed at 81.67, one candle absorbed the two bearish candles from 18:00 and 19:00, even more than the entire 18:00 hour.
Don't chase highs, wait for pullbacks:
· Buy at 80.20~80.45 around 80.35, stop loss 79.65 (if broken, it's a false rebound), targets 82.12/82.93, odds 2.5/3.7
· If breaks 79.65, short at 79.60, stop loss 80.45, targets 78.28/77.40, odds 1.6/2.6
Current price 81.67, +3.51%, MA20 at 80.37 supporting below.
$SOXL
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)Iran has laid its cards on the table. The conditions are straightforward: the U.S. must meet its demands, the Strait of Hormuz must reopen within two days, and nuclear negotiations must resume simultaneously. There are no detailed terms, just these two sentences.
What’s worth pondering is the timing. This strait controls a significant portion of the world’s seaborne crude oil routes and has been a looming risk over the market for some time. Now that Iran is proactively saying it can open, it indicates it needs an outlet rather than wanting a head-on confrontation.
The mechanism is not hard to infer. Reopening the strait removes the worst-case supply scenario, causing oil price premiums to retreat first, inflation expectations to ease, and risk asset discount rates to relax. The transmission to the crypto market usually isn’t an immediate surge but a stopgap—BTC is no longer seen as the sole liquidity ATM, allowing ETH and SOL room for repricing.
But there is a premise to this chain: the U.S. must accept it. So far, there has been no confirmation from the U.S. side, and the negotiations are still dragging on. So what we see now is an "intention," not a "result." Intentions can be priced in but cannot be treated as a factual transaction.
From another perspective, this situation exposes the crypto market’s current vulnerability: its ups and downs increasingly depend on whether a waterway in the Middle East opens or not. Previously, we watched the Federal Reserve; now we have to watch the Strait of Hormuz. This kind of external dependency is itself a risk exposure.
Conclusion: The news is positive but not finalized. BTC can be slightly bullish, but positions shouldn’t be heavy; ETH, SOL, and others with confirmed signals are more worthwhile than chasing rebounds.Regarding $ETH, let's talk about the short-term outlook. The short-term daily chart still looks bearish. A specific reversal might occur around the non-farm payroll data on November 6th. The November 6th non-farm data will determine whether the Fed will raise interest rates this year. Also, a quick mention about the US tech companies investing in AI: these leading tech giants in the US have poured in hundreds of billions, and you tell me, all that effort just produced a short drama called "Red Fruit"? Who can hold up under that? If I throw a few stones into a river, I can still see splashes, but these US tech companies have invested hundreds of billions and so far, there’s no substantial return. So the AI path is almost over. If AI crashes and drags down storage, then there might be a possibility of funds flowing back into crypto and Huobi. Therefore, it's still best to stay out of positions in the short term.Previously, the market was debating "whether AI is truly a revolution," but now with S&P downgrading Meta's outlook and BlackRock saying Anthropic won't get investment-grade status, the focus of the debate has shifted — it's no longer about how big your AI story is, but whether you can still borrow money and if you can afford to borrow it.
The qualitative debate is over. AI is real, no one denies that. But a true revolution and the ability to repay debt are two different things. Rating agencies are now looking at the numbers: Meta's free cash flow has turned negative for the first time, its leverage ratio may exceed 1.0x next year, Anthropic has signed a 637 billion compute power agreement, with 431 billion as mandatory expenditure — these are not "AI prospects" issues, but questions of "can cash flow cover rigid expenses."
The implication of this shift is that once financing ability becomes the main theme, valuation logic changes. Previously, premiums were based on growth rates; now it's about how long the balance sheet can hold up. As financing costs rise, the room to cut prices to increase volume narrows; when space narrows and revenue can't keep up with expenses, refinancing is needed; if refinancing conditions are poor, capital expenditures must be cut. The entire chain is tied to "money" from start to finish, regardless of how strong AI itself is.
So this S&P downgrade and BlackRock's statement, on the surface, concern two companies, but in reality, they have set a new standard for the entire AI sector. The story has been told; now it's time to look at the books. Semiconductors are almost numb from the drop; will there be a sudden big rebound in November?
The tech stock sell-off in the US market in October was indeed brutal. $SOXL has retraced over 50% from its peak, and $AMD has also dropped 22%. Many have already started bottom-fishing, but I think what we need to observe most now is how much selling pressure is still unreleased in the market.
I've been watching US Treasury yields recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 5.29% to 4.94%, which is good news for tech stocks. After all, the higher the interest rate, the lower the market is willing to value growth stocks.
What I’m more looking forward to in November are the earnings reports from AMD$ and Nvidia.
These two companies can be said to be important indicators for the AI market. Especially AMD, which has already dropped so much; as long as the data center business performs well and future guidance is not significantly downgraded, I think there is reason for capital to re-enter.
$SOXL has already been halved, indicating that leveraged funds are undergoing a round of cleansing. The question is whether these funds have completely exited?
My view is that the probability of a rebound in November is not low, but the truly worthwhile opportunities to participate may have to wait until the market flushes out the last batch of eager bottom-fishers.
As long as US Treasuries don’t break above 5% again, and AMD and NVDA’s earnings expectations hold steady, I remain optimistic about the semiconductor recovery trend ahead.
Right now, I’d rather earn less in the first phase than get trapped again by bottom-fishing too early.
#US stocks and gold & silver fall sharply together, with a divergence in safe-haven capital flows Capital expenditures are high, but free cash flow is negative. Squeezed from both ends, the gap in the middle can only be filled by external funding. Anthropic signed a 637 billion computing power procurement agreement, with 431 billion as mandatory minimum spending — this money must be paid regardless of whether customers pay or not, once the contract is signed. However, its revenue in the first half of the year was only 16.2 billion, mainly supported by the top 1% of customers, and enterprise adoption rate has already plateaued as of September. Whether the revenue side can cover the expenditure side is itself a big question mark.
This creates a typical mismatch: money is spent according to ambitions for 2045, while revenue is earned quarterly in real time. Capital expenditure is rigid, long-term, and contractually committed; free cash flow is negative, volatile, and dependent on customers. The whole middle relies on financing to survive. Blackstone says it is very unlikely to get an investment-grade rating upon listing, and the reason is here — rating agencies look at your ability to repay, not how big your story is.
What’s more troublesome is that this mismatch will self-reinforce. When financing costs rise, prices must be cut to boost volume and revenue; cutting prices to boost volume thins profit margins; thinner margins mean free cash flow can’t be filled; without filling it, dependence on financing grows. This cycle returns to the starting point, tightening more and more.
So you see, the term "mismatch" is apt. It’s not that growth is too slow, but that the rhythm of spending and earning money is out of sync. The real risk in this round of AI spending is not on the demand side, but whether the balance sheet can hold out until revenue catches up.#Perspectivas del informe financiero de Palantir: ¿Puede el alto crecimiento sostener la alta valoración? This message is cooling down the seasonal bullish sentiment, and still using "October should rise" as a judgment, which I think goes against the current trend. According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin fell 7.3% in October 2026, marking two consecutive years of October declines, and analysts are reassessing seasonal signals.
I have three principles for trend analysis: price weighs more than the calendar—no matter how strong historical returns are, they can't outweigh the actual decline this time; downgrade signals when they fail—after two consecutive years of misses, seasonal patterns can no longer be the main basis; don't treat a local event as the whole picture—a single month's decline is not enough to confirm a long-term bearish trend. For me, this feels more like a correction in the judgment method, not a final verdict on the market outlook.
The trend is the best friend. I will continue to watch whether the price can establish a sustained direction, without patching it up with the calendar or guessing the bottom based on one month's decline.Anthropic's revenue growth of 1300% in the first half of the year is real, but there's a mismatch here: rapid revenue growth doesn't mean customers will keep spending like this.
The market looks big, but it's actually hollow. The top 1% of enterprise clients contribute nearly half of the B2B spending; only a small handful are truly paying. Enterprise adoption rate has plateaued by September, new client acquisition has slowed, so future growth depends on existing clients spending more—how long can that last?
Moreover, this growth is driven by price cuts. Token prices have been halved year-over-year, revenue went up, but the pressure on computing power costs hasn't eased at all. The real killer is the 2045 line: they've signed computing power purchase agreements worth $637 billion, of which $431 billion is mandatory minimum spending—whether clients pay or not, Anthropic has to cover these costs. The prospectus itself admits that a new round of financing may be needed earlier than expected.
So how long can clients keep paying? It depends on two things: whether that top 1% of big clients will cut budgets, and how long the game of trading price cuts for volume can continue. BlackRock has already hinted that Anthropic is unlikely to get an investment-grade rating after going public. Even lenders think the books don't add up; can clients' willingness to pay really last until 2045? Few dare to bet on that.#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ After the rebound, short positions dominate, is there an imbalance in market liquidity?
Bottom-fishing funds push prices up, Hyperliquid has 80% of trading accounts short, and sell orders continue to accumulate in the upper range.
BTC oscillates around 78000, with significantly higher resistance thickness between 80500 and 82000.
ETH shows an independent rebound, standing above 2300, but ETF funds outflow 156 million, with on-chain and institutional fund flows diverging.
Open the order book and compare the scale of orders near 76000.
The buy order thickness at the 76000 level is a key benchmark for this round of liquidity structure.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 🔥ETH's current rebound has gained momentum, but the real test is still at $2350! 😎 On Saturday, we mentioned that as long as ETH holds around 2260, there is a chance to retest 2300. Now that the price has risen above 2300, it indicates that the previous support judgment has been somewhat validated, and the short-term trend has clearly improved compared to a few days ago.
📈 From the 4-hour structure perspective, ETH previously dipped to around 2171 before stopping its decline and rebounding, and it has now reclaimed 2300. However, the 2350–2370 range is a dense resistance zone where multiple rebounds were previously blocked, so we cannot assume a trend reversal just because the price has warmed up. Whether it can break through and hold this area with volume will determine if the rebound has room to extend further.
🧭 In terms of trading, I will focus on 2260–2280. If the price dips back to this area and shows signs of stopping the decline, consider building positions gradually; if it rushes directly to around 2350 but fails to break through for a long time, avoid blindly chasing the rally.
⚠️ This week is packed with macro news: the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, and the October nonfarm payroll data release on November 6, which may affect market expectations for the Fed's December rate policy. Meanwhile, ETH spot ETFs have seen net outflows for five consecutive weeks, and institutional capital inflow signals remain unclear.
Therefore, it is currently more appropriate to view this as an oversold rebound rather than a complete trend reversal. Tonight, keep an eye on the performance around 2350. Do you think ETH can break through in one go, or will it need to pull back and gather strength? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？