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Tonight's review: First, let's talk about the market. BTC fluctuated between $78,000 and $78,600 today, up about 1% compared to the weekend, marking the third consecutive day of gains. However, the $80,000 level remains out of reach. ETH hovered around $2,280 to $2,300, rising 1% to 2%. Data compiled during trading on November 2, subject to real-time exchange updates. Why the rise? Because the worst panic is over. On October 29, Binance was hacked for about $6 billion, with the FBI attributing it to North Korean hackers. Binance stated that approximately 95% of the affected assets have been replenished, and withdrawals are being restored in batches. The market's reaction is that knowing the worst-case scenario makes it less scary. Why didn't it rise more? Because the Federal Reserve is still holding rates between 3.75% and 4%, with two members wanting to raise rates. On Friday, US tech stocks plunged, suppressing valuations of risk assets, and crypto is also struggling to breathe. I want to say something painful: replenishing 95% means user funds have been restored, not that the stolen funds have been recovered from the hackers. These are two different things. It's like your partner saying, "I've compensated you 95%," but you still have to ask, "What about the other 5% and the future?" So after an exchange incident, I personally do three things: 1. Don't panic to withdraw or add positions; first check official announcements, not screenshots in chat groups. 2. Diversify: spread funds across different platforms; keep frequently used funds on exchanges; move long-term holdings to your own wallet. Don't put all your assets in one basket. Same in relationships: don't place all your sense of security on one person. 3. Set up two-factor authentication and withdrawal whitelist properly. This is the cheapest insurance.Last week in the US stock market spot crypto ETFs, XRP products saw a net inflow of about $4.32 million; in the same week, BTC had a net outflow of about $203 million, ETH about $432 million, and SOL about $71.47 million. Cointelegraph and several dashboards have all reported these figures. CoinGecko spot XRP is about $1.25 (snapshot around 18:02 Beijing time, about -0.1%).
Next to the hundreds of millions in outflows, the few million in inflows can hardly be called rotation. It's more likely small positions are buying against the trend, which doesn't mean institutions have shifted their holdings from the mainstream to XRP. The opposing view might say that continuous positive inflows over several months indicate someone has been consistently buying; but the absolute value is too small to cover this round of price pullback or support a big story of capital rotation.
To interpret this as genuine differentiation, at least one more week of same-direction increased buying is needed. If next week's net inflow falls back to negative, or single-week inflows remain below five million, then this should be considered noise differentiation, not that XRP has been chosen by capital.
$XRP
#XRP #ETF $BTC hovered around $78,000 for a whole day, fluctuating less than a hundred dollars up or down. The fee rate is 0.0096%, but the Deribit December contract only premiums the spot by 0.8%. This spot-strong futures-weak structure is rare—leverage hasn't moved, and no one is adding positions. October closed down 7.32%, the worst since 2014. Last week, Binance was hacked for 6.3 billion, the Fed stayed put, and after over 1.5 billion long liquidations, momentum is insufficient. Before the FOMC, I stayed flat waiting for the outcome. This time, the statement didn't move much, which is reassuring—stability tests patience more than sharp rises or falls.$HYPE
1.06 billion USD.
The two highest earners on Hyperliquid this month are now both short, with their combined short positions at this amount. The headline is straightforward, betting on a decline in crypto assets.
I checked the market. HYPE is currently at 85.84, down 2.47% in 24 hours, with a low of 85.25. The perpetual funding rate is still a positive 0.01%, meaning longs are paying.
These two facts together feel awkward. The most profitable people are betting on a drop, yet the funding rate is positive, so longs haven't given up and are still paying to hold. Shorts not only hold the direction but also collect rent.
I don't think this signals a waterfall drop. 1.06 billion sounds scary, but in this market cap, it won't break much; it looks more like someone hedging spot or waiting for a worse entry point.
What really needs watching is when the funding rate turns negative. That would mean longs have conceded, not this current stubborn hold.
As someone who likes to follow smart money, my historical record shows I've lost out several times. This time, I don't plan to try a fourth time.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $BTC
There is a piece of data today that not many people are sharing. Bitcoin's active addresses are down 43% from the peak, but the daily average transaction volume has only dropped 5.4%.
Putting these two numbers together really tells the story. Addresses dropped by 40%, but the money flow hasn't decreased. It's the small accounts that are moving less; the large accounts that should be transferring are still transferring. Retail investors are retreating, but the demand for on-chain settlement hasn't declined.
The price matches this situation. The 24-hour volatility is 1.6%, with a high of 78,831 and a low of 77,555, currently at 77,930, down 0.15%. The perpetual funding rate is 0.0059%, basically zero, meaning no one is aggressively taking a direction. Open interest is $2.61 billion, and no one seems to be withdrawing.
My view is that this kind of low-volume sideways movement is neither a bottom nor a top; it's waiting. Waiting to see how the $6.3 billion case will conclude, waiting for when ETF money will stop flowing out.
I have never trusted active addresses as a standalone signal; it's a thermometer, not a trigger. The fact that addresses dropped by 40% without the market crashing indicates that the chips are concentrated in the hands of a few. This kind of structure rises quickly and falls even faster.
So I don't guess the direction; I wait for the volatility to expand on its own.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ Bitcoin, will history repeat itself this time? Looking back at the four rounds of U.S. midterm elections, after the votes are cast, BTC has always experienced a significant drop, forming a very notable pattern. Interestingly, the decline in each round has been gradually narrowing: 2010: down 72% 2014: down 65% 2018: down 52% 2022: down 27% Looking at the fourth quarter of election years alone: 2014 fell 16.7%, 2018 plunged 42.2%, 2022 dropped 14.8%, with three out of four times closing lower. Moreover, the bottoms of the first three cycles appeared 71 days, 38 days, and 13 days after election day, respectively. Many worry that the historical curse will play out again. But CoinDesk's data analysis offers a different perspective: The real core variable may not be the midterm election itself. The Nasdaq did not show the same pattern of decline, and BTC's several major bottoms highly coincide with the four-year halving cycle. The election just happened to coincide with the timing window of the cycle adjustment. The root cause driving the market adjustment is Bitcoin's own four-year cycle, not the election results. Returning to the current market: BTC is currently fluctuating around $78,300, rebounding from a low of $76,300, about 38% retracement from the all-time high of $126,000. The Fear and Greed Index is at 37, slightly improved from 30 last week, but overall market sentiment remains cautious. Trading volume has already expanded to more than twice the 30-day average, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting at a critical level; both bottom-fishing and fleeing coexist, and no one dares #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $BTC $ETH
The key variable for the December rate hike is no longer inflation, but employment — however, the non-farm payrolls only decide "whether to hike or not," not "whether to cut or not." So a weak non-farm payrolls report provides a 2–8 week valuation repair window for tech stocks, not a trend reversal.
Why is this non-farm payrolls report particularly significant this time?
The inflation line is already settled: September CPI year-on-year at 3.72%, month-on-month +0.65% (previous base 324.245 → 336.298). The month-on-month annualized rate exceeds 8%, this is not "close to 2%," but a reignition. The Federal Reserve actually raised rates in September (effective federal funds rate 3.63% → 3.75%).
With inflation a fait accompli, all remaining disagreements hinge on whether employment can withstand another rate hike. Therefore, this Friday (11/6, as usual the October employment report is released on the first Friday of November) is the only variable before the December 9–10 meeting that can still change the outcome.The overnight tape is doing what thin liquidity does best: manufacturing false floors. $SOL near 95 looks bid-heavy at first glance, but the order book tells a different story. What sits there is position reduction, not fresh capital — traders closing exposure as price slides, not new money stepping in. The genuine demand cluster is lower, with roughly $34 million in buy orders stacked between 91 and 93. That is the zone where the market has actually committed size. $BTC around 77,900 carries a $BCH BCH really can't be pushed down around 289.
Several times it dipped down briefly, but as soon as it touched down, buying pressure pulled it back. What's more interesting is that the shorts are still continuously paying interest to suppress the price, with the rate always negative, and the short positions getting more and more crowded.
In this kind of market, I prefer to side with the bulls. Shorts hold positions and pay daily fees, yet the price just won't fall; as soon as the main force lifts a little, there's a bunch of ready buybacks.
If it can't fall, it can only squeeze upwards. Now it's a matter of whether the support at 289 can continue to hold.
#BCH
$BCH
👇#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 First viewpoint: I side with the beat expectations camp, but beating expectations doesn't necessarily mean the stock price will rise; the key is whether the guidance is strong.
Palantir will release its Q3 earnings after the US market closes tonight. Already, 84% of people in the discussion expect a beat, with trading volume exceeding 2 million, so market expectations are very high.
There is indeed confidence: Q2 revenue rose 93% year-over-year, with US commercial business even stronger, up 149%. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance. The rollout of sovereign AI and AIP are truly rare stories, and even Goldman Sachs has upgraded to a buy.
But the problem is this: high growth is now an open secret, and high valuation is also obvious. As long as the earnings meet growth expectations, the market might just say "Oh, got it." To push higher, it requires a significantly larger beat or an upward revision of Q4 guidance. Conversely, if growth slows, the high valuation will not be spared from a sharp drop.
So tonight, don’t just focus on whether it "beats expectations"; focus on two points: whether the US commercial business can maintain triple-digit growth, and whether the full-year guidance moves. These two points will determine the post-market price movement.#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 11月2号美股盘后，苹果要公布最新财报了。这可是新CEO约翰·特努斯上任后的首份“大考”成绩单，iPhone 18 Pro系列上市初期的销量也会第一次体现在业绩里。现在大环境挺难的，内存芯片成本在涨，AI大模型那边苹果又一直被吐槽慢半拍。看现在的盘面，预测市场里虽然有72%的人押注它能超预期，但代币化的苹果股票还是微微跌了0.5%，说明大资金在开奖前还是挺怂的。 小马哥的个人看法：苹果现在正处于一个极其尴尬的“青黄不接”期。 库克时代留下的供应链底子确实牛，手机肯定还是能卖。但资本市场现在胃口刁了，光靠卖硬件已经很难刺激股价了。新CEO特努斯是个搞硬件出身的，大家现在最想听他讲的是：苹果的AI到底什么时候能真正落地？面对存储成本上涨，利润率还能不能保住？目前72%的资金押注超预期，这其实是个危险信号，预期打得太满了。只要财报哪怕只是“符合预期”，或者对新品展望不够炸裂，资金绝对会毫不留情地砸盘，玩一出“利好出尽”。 有啥影响？ 短期来看，这是全球科技股情绪的风向标。如果苹果财报暴雷或者股价大跌，美股科技板块的风险偏好就会被Does a meme coin have to rely on value investing? I don't think it's necessary. You can look at popularity, consensus, and whether the funds are willing to keep playing, but that's a different matter from calculating how much money the business can make. I'm not against meme coins; if a trend emerges, I'll pay attention, but I don't dare to treat a big drop as a bargain. Some dog coins have introduction pages written in a grandiose way. I looked for a basis to estimate their value for a long time, and my mouse wheel almost smoked from scrolling.Just saw that Mt.Gox has been delayed again, this time for the fourth time, with the repayment deadline pushed directly to October 2027.
Honestly, this matter has been dragging on since 2014, almost 13 years now, and creditors are still waiting. There are still 34,400 BTC locked on-chain, worth about $2.8 billion at current prices, accounting for a quarter of the originally planned distribution. And from last October until now, this wallet has only decreased by 300 BTC, basically untouched.
The most interesting part is that in June this year, 10,400 BTC were transferred out from the cold wallet, but the trustee hasn't said what this money was used for, and the balance hasn't decreased. This kind of unclear and inexplicable transfer is what really irritates the market.
However, I think the delay might not be bad for the market. In July 2024, 96,000 BTC were transferred to Kraken all at once, causing BTC to drop below 55,000. The remaining 34,400 BTC now are just a fraction of that, and this time the explosion is postponed by a year, not immediate. The coins are distributed for creditors to decide whether to sell or not, so it might not crash the market.
My view: don't panic in the short term, but if you see large movements in the Mt.Gox wallet next time, better stay clear. This old story isn't over yet.
#Web3 #BTC #MtGox🚨 UNI from "governance token" to value capture, is it really undervalued around $7?
Once criticized for only being able to vote, $UNI is now trying to change its value logic.
With the advancement of Uniswap's fee capture mechanism, protocol revenue is gradually linked to UNI burn. The fundamentals have a new story, but the price has yet to break through. What exactly is the market waiting for?
📊 Market Observation:
UNI has recently been fluctuating around $7, with $7.5 as a key short-term resistance. On-chain activity is rebounding, and the v4 upgrade along with liquidity aggregation features also bring new imagination space for the protocol.
🔥 Potential Positives:
- Fee mechanism driving UNI value capture
- v4 and Aggregator Hooks enhancing liquidity integration capabilities
- DeFi capital rotation may bring new attention
⚠️ Risks also exist:
BTC still dominates the market, and macro data may amplify volatility. If UNI falls below $6.8, short-term adjustment pressure may further increase.
Key levels:
Watch $7.5–$7.8 above; pay attention to $6.8–$7.0 support below.
The leader says:
UNI's logic is changing, but improved fundamentals do not mean the price will rise immediately. A real breakthrough still requires volume and market capital confirmation.
Don't rush to call a takeoff, nor easily label it as a worthless coin. Before the market confirms, controlling position size is key.
$BTC $ETH $UNI
Always set your stop loss on orders!On November 2, Animoca Brands announced that its subsidiary Animoca Asset Management obtained a financial services license issued by the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) of the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), authorizing it to conduct collective investment fund management business within ADGM.
First, clarify the nature of this license. It is not an exchange license; it is a "collective investment fund management" license — allowing compliant management of others' money and investing it into digital assets. Opening a trading channel solves the "can you buy" question, while obtaining a fund management shell solves the "can you buy on behalf of institutions" question, with a vastly different level of significance.
The entity itself is also worth noting. Animoca's old label was blockchain gaming and NFT investment, but this time it has singled out asset management to obtain the license, making its move very clear: from investing on its own to investing on behalf of others. Minh Do said the license allows it to manage funds under sound regulation, connecting institutional capital with digital assets.
What does this mean for the market? It doesn't mean a pump tomorrow. From license issuance to fundraising and then to building positions, there are due diligence and compliance steps in between. The change is structural: institutional money now has a regulated vehicle and doesn't need to go around spot markets or overseas shell companies to express views. The more such vehicles there are, the more "dull" the marginal buying pressure for $BTC and $ETH becomes — slower to arrive, but less likely to exit due to a single bearish candle.
One point worth pondering: don't focus on the headline, focus on where the first money of this fund lands. Nonfarm payrolls and elections are coming one after another: BTC and ETH rebound, who will be tested first?
Before the nonfarm payrolls and elections have landed, BTC and ETH have already rebounded. But looking at the market, I actually think BTC's short-term recovery might be tested first.
The reason is simple: BTC retreated after reaching around 78,866, not far from the previous hourly-level support low of 77,917. Although ETH hasn't firmly held above 2,318, it is still above the recent support low of 2,279. Currently, BTC is closer to its defense line.
Don't be quick to assume ETH is definitely stronger. The U.S. midterm election voting day is November 3, and the October nonfarm payrolls will be released on November 6. Before the results come out, news and expectations may stir the market; weak employment data could simultaneously bring expectations of easing interest rates and growth concerns.
I will first watch BTC at 77,900: if it closes below this on the hourly chart and fails to rebound above it, this recovery might loosen first, with 77,600 as the next support to watch. If ETH also breaks below 2,279, it indicates weakening support on both sides.
Conversely, if BTC holds 77,900 and climbs back above 78,400 while ETH breaks below 2,279 first, my judgment that BTC will weaken first does not hold. If both pull back pressure, we cannot continue to focus only on declines.
In terms of operation, I will wait for the hourly close and pullback, and will not chase orders between the two defense lines.
$BTC $ETH #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #OKX星球话题来啦 OpenAI has cut its current fundraising target from $30 billion to $20 billion, with its valuation dropping from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion, shrinking by $150 billion. There is absolutely no competition among Morgan Stanley private banking clients. Why are even the hottest assets starting to be discounted? #OpenAI融资目标下调，Anthropic信用风险受关注 Don't fool yourself, this Bitcoin rebound is just a gentle trap in a downtrend continuation.
Large ETF outflows and Coinbase premiums have been negative for a long time; institutional funds have quietly withdrawn. Miner revenue surged, but single hash rate earnings have shrunk, which could trigger selling pressure at any time. Bitcoin is stuck oscillating between 77,000 and 80,000, seemingly resilient, but the buying power has long been exhausted.
Ethereum has no independent rally; once Bitcoin breaks down, Ethereum will be pushed to accelerate its decline by leveraged positions. Many are rushing to bottom-fish now, mistaking the volatility for a base-building phase.
The market warming is essentially an escape window for trapped positions, not the start of a new bull market. As long as capital inflow can't keep up, every surge in Bitcoin and Ethereum is a chance to trap investors.
$BTC $ETH #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 🚨 The U.S. midterm elections are about to ignite the market! Will the Republicans hold Congress, or will the Democrats pull off a comeback? BTC and the U.S. stock market could face major changes!
On November 3rd, the U.S. midterm elections will officially take place! All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate will be up for election.
What really matters is who controls Congress!
🔥 Scenario 1: Republicans control both the House and Senate!
The Trump administration’s efforts to push tax, fiscal, and cryptocurrency-related policies may face less resistance.
The market might interpret this as positive, with U.S. stocks and BTC likely to gain sentiment support!
⚠️ Scenario 2: Democrats retake the House, Republicans hold the Senate!
This means the U.S. could enter a political split situation!
Policy advancement would become more difficult, crypto regulatory legislation might slow down, and U.S. stocks could experience short-term volatility due to policy uncertainty.
💥 Scenario 3: Democrats control both chambers!
The Trump administration’s domestic legislative agenda could face greater restrictions, and crypto companies might face stricter congressional investigations.
However, political gridlock could also limit some fiscal policies, which may not be entirely negative for the stock market!
So what should we do?
Focus on three key signals: the distribution of congressional seats, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, and the trading volume of BTC and the Nasdaq!
Remember: what determines market rises and falls is not just which party wins, but whether the election results exceed Wall Street’s expectations!
The real market movement may only begin once the results become clearer!
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Is Trump going to lose? Midterm election countdown! 70% odds settled, will Bitcoin and tech stocks be repriced?
The latest prediction market data directly pushes the probability of the Democrats sweeping Congress to 70%, and Trump's Republican Party is very likely to lose the initiative.
Because midterm elections have always been the president's "midterm exam." Nearly two years into Trump's administration, the economy, inflation, and policy controversies have all become reasons for Americans to settle accounts.
But honestly, Trump's previous two elections were similar, trailing in the polls, but when the actual results came out, they miraculously reversed the situation. Can another miracle happen this time? It seems less likely at the moment.
Currently, the market is pricing in a Democratic sweep as the main scenario. For the market, the Democrats taking both chambers means a significant increase in checks and balances. Trump's subsequent tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff increases will be constrained, making policy implementation more difficult.
Actually, this is not surprising. As shown in the chart, before and after the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, the Nasdaq hit its lowest points, with significant pullbacks. This time looks no different, starting a sharp correction.
In fact, this year we have discussed this in multiple episodes, calling it the midterm election curse. The market tends to pull back as the midterms approach. I believe everyone has noticed this; I wonder if anyone managed to sell at the top?
According to historical data, although the market pulls back and creates a big dip during each midterm, these are actually very good opportunities to re-enter. Prices then gradually rise afterward, and Bitcoin is no exception. Everyone, remember to seize the opportunity~[AAOI's 800G orders begin to materialize, Q3 revenue expected to challenge $290 million, profit is the real test]
$AAOI The most anticipated aspect of this earnings report is that the 800G optical modules are finally ramping up. In Q2, the company reported revenue of $191.9 million, an 86% year-over-year increase. The shipment volume of 800G modules more than doubled quarter-over-quarter, with related revenue reaching $12.8 million. Management expects Q3 800G revenue to be about 5 times that of Q2, indicating that AI data center demand is truly converting into orders and revenue.
The company’s Q3 revenue guidance is $255 million to $290 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 29% to 30.5%. The market expects revenue around $268 million. As long as 800G shipments proceed smoothly, exceeding revenue expectations is not hard to imagine. The company also expects demand for 800G and 1.6T products to continue exceeding capacity until mid-2027. Order demand is not the biggest issue for now; production and delivery capacity are.
The company completed a $600 million ATM offering, which supplemented expansion funds but also diluted shares, pressuring the stock price. On October 30, AAOI closed at $69.05, down 12.8% in a single day. The market clearly did not unconditionally buy into the strong AI demand; expansion is also a real cash burn.
#AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ $OKB Observation: Binance net outflow of $3.64 billion, OKEx receives net inflow, OKB only rises 1.39%
In the first 9.5 hours after Binance resumed withdrawals, $4.649 billion was withdrawn and $1.01 billion was deposited, resulting in a net outflow of $3.64 billion. DefiLlama shows that OKEx, Robinhood, and Bybit all had net inflows during the same period.
OKB is the platform token of OKEx; users and funds flow to the platform, benefiting trading fees and platform activity. This is the direct reason it entered the top three gainers today.
The rise is restrained, current price at 112.85, after reaching a 24-hour high of 115.64 then retreating. Trading volume is only $9 million; the fund migration has not yet turned into large-scale buying.
The buy orders account for 73.6% of the order book; support below is stronger than selling pressure above. The intraday low of 110.97 is the first support level.
The FBI has attributed this attack to North Korea's TraderTraitor and has requested cross-chain protocols and nodes to jointly intercept the stolen funds. The more effective the industry's joint defense, the less panic users have when moving funds between platforms. Whether this inflow can be retained depends on the next few days.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 The judgment is simple: extract the logic behind this profit, then run it again with different times, different assets, and different market conditions. If it can be repeated, explained, and the drawdown is controllable, that's skill; otherwise, it's just market dividends, not skill.
Making a profit once in crypto is not hard; the difficult part is whether the same logic can earn a second or third profit. Doubling altcoins in a bull market, chasing meme hype, getting rich from airdrops—many are market dividends: hitting the rhythm once, but failing in another cycle. Conversely, grid trading, dollar-cost averaging, cross-exchange arbitrage, and funding rate strategies, if the rules are clearly defined and fees and slippage are deducted, and they still have positive expected returns in bull, bear, and sideways markets, and can perform outside the sample, that is more like true skill.
The most expensive illusion in crypto is mistaking a one-time market dividend for your own trading ability. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Wow, this market is getting more and more interesting. 😂
Tomorrow is the US midterm election, and just now, a huge whale suddenly appeared on-chain and instantly scooped up $65 million worth of ETH.
This move looks really familiar; it's obviously a big player betting early on the macro event landing. Does this mean that once the midterm election hype passes, the market is about to start a violent rally?
Honestly, with this amount of real money being thrown in, it's definitely not charity. The big players probably think the current price is cheap enough to secure chips early and avoid missing out. Also, historically, once the election results are confirmed and short-term macro uncertainty is removed, risk assets usually experience a wave of emotional recovery.
But we can't be blindly optimistic either; don't forget the hole left by the hacker incident a few days ago hasn't been fully filled yet. The whale entering is a good sign, but whether it can directly trigger a big market move depends on whether follow-up funds come in.
Anyway, this $65 million investment at least shows that smart money is moving.
$BTC $ZEC $ETH The meme season looks lively on the surface, but underneath, some are quietly repositioning. Is this wave of PEPE accumulation a sign of confidence or a silent shift of risk? Looking at the on-chain data these past two days, one detail made me pause and take a closer look. An address known as a legendary trader added another 4.508 billion PEPE, now holding a total of about $10.19 million worth of PEPE. The most striking part is that old position: 59,000 PEPE acquired in April 2023 through Uniswap V3 by swapping 0.125 ETH, which once peaked at a value of $100 million. Stories like this are easy to get caught up in, but what concerns me more is where his money came from this time—he sold 600,000 SPX, exchanged it for about $210,000, and then bought PEPE. This is not just simple accumulation; it’s shifting one type of risk exposure to another. Looking at the bigger picture, Justin Sun is also accumulating PEPE, with about $51.25 million, accounting for 3% of the total supply. When two big names appear simultaneously, the sentiment will definitely be ignited. But I want to remind you that the market is not really trading on "whether PEPE has positive news," but rather "how many people are still willing to bear volatility in the meme sector." The ETF application has indeed been submitted, and rumors of large-scale burns are circulating, but the burns have not been confirmed, and the ETF still needs to wait. Some of these expectations have already been priced in. The real risk that hasn’t been fully recognized is: if these large holders start managing risk, such as hedging or taking profits in batches, the sentiment in altcoins will react before the price does. The bullish path is not impossible either.Conclusion first: In Q3, the stock perpetual contracts on nine exchanges traded $1.61 trillion, with Binance alone taking 58.6% ($943 billion), OKX second with $254 billion (15.8%), and the top three accounting for about 82%. Stocks account for 77% of traditional asset perpetuals, while commodity perpetuals only reached $491 billion.
Moreover, the top 20 stock perpetuals make up 88% of the volume, among which 7 are storage chip stocks and ETFs.
But you should pay more attention to another figure: the weekend trading volume of these contracts averages only 14% of that on weekdays. Even though the US stock market is closed, you can still open positions 24/7, but liquidity drops to just one-seventh, so you bear the spread and slippage yourself.
OKX announced today at 17:30: five stock perpetuals—ADI, FLEX, MELI, $PEP, and UMC—will open successively from 19:30 to 20:30 tonight. The platform currently hosts 253 stock X-Perp contracts.
The mechanism to note: funding fees settle every 8 hours, clamped at ±1%, and if the cap is hit, it automatically switches to 1-hour settlement—so if you hold positions over the weekend without moving, fees still accrue.
I checked OKX’s market: in 24 hours, the 253 stock X-Perp contracts traded a total of $125 million, just a fraction of a single BTC perpetual contract ($297 million). 239 contracts had trading activity, but most only saw tens of thousands of dollars in volume all day.
Would you bet on US stock perpetuals over the weekend, or wait for the market to open?XPL Flash Crash Event Analysis and Short-Term Trading Review
1. Analysis of Flash Crash Causes
Before the sharp drop of $XPL, 12 to 16 related wallets coordinated margin withdrawals, cashing out over 2 million USDC. As long positions were forcefully liquidated, liquidity dried up, causing the price to plummet about 18% instantly.
Hyperliquid's HLP protocol was forced to take on approximately $12.2 million in underwater positions, incurring losses of about $556,000, a typical liquidity squeeze scenario.
2. Market Anomalies and Assessment
Highly concentrated withdrawals indicate signs of manipulation, but analysis tends to attribute this to a high-leverage liquidity crisis rather than an attack.
Differences in statistical scope reflect dispersed capital flows. Without transparent disclosure, this derivatives pool shows weaknesses in handling sudden withdrawals.
3. Trading Guidelines and Risk Control
The market shows only sporadic buy attempts, lacking fundamental support. Operations should be treated as aggressive short-term trades; left-side bottom fishing or long-term holding is strictly prohibited. Adopt a small position, quick entry and exit strategy, set strict stop losses, and guard against secondary withdrawal risks.
4. Reference Price Suggestions
Test buy range: Around $0.0735 - $0.0750 (a consolidation zone above the flash crash low)
Stop loss: $0.0690 (must unconditionally stop loss if breaking below previous low $0.0700)
Take profit: First target $0.0810, second target $0.0850 (take profits in batches to clear positions) Nonfarm Friday Night Reveal: If Employment Doesn't Collapse, December Rate Hike Is Unavoidable
Friday (November 6) at 21:30, the U.S. October Nonfarm Payrolls will be revealed. The market expects about 60,000 new jobs added (only 29,000 in September), with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. But the context is more critical: the Fed just held steady (3.75%—4.00%), with two votes favoring an immediate rate hike, and inflation stubbornly above 3%; once the decision is out, the pricing for a December rate hike jumps to around 80%.
So the real weight of this data is whether it can sway that 80%. As long as the data doesn't collapse or is hotter than expected, the rate hike expectation will be confirmed: the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will continue to push higher (the 10-year is near 4.9%), and risk assets will take a hit first. $BTC has been grinding near previous lows for days; if it really crashes, don't try to catch the fall. Conversely, if new jobs fall back to 20-30,000 and unemployment jumps, the door for a rate hike opens slightly—but that’s not a big positive either. Once the economy shows signs of weakening, capital will still flee first.
My approach remains unchanged: no betting on direction or adding positions before the data, just watch the show on Friday. If panic selling occurs, then follow the original plan and act at the right levels; if not, keep grinding. Survive the data week first, then talk about making money.
All of the above are my own market feelings and plans, not advice.
Is this Nonfarm the straw that breaks the camel’s back, or a breath of fresh air for the market? #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ Brothers, BTC and ETH have climbed out of the Binance pit, but the ETF ledger is still bleeding
$BTC $78,000 | $ETH $2,290
Bitcoin has climbed back from the low of 76,300 to around 78,000, and Ethereum has stood back at 2,290. Binance has resumed the first phase of withdrawals, initially opening 15 coins, with the official statement that about 95% of assets have been purchased. The fear and greed index has risen from 30 to 37, still in the fear zone.
But the funds haven't kept up. Last Friday, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $643 million, the largest single-day outflow since October, ending a four-day winning streak. Ethereum ETF had an outflow of $156 million the same day, with October's cumulative losses approaching historic highs. Prices are rebounding, but institutions are withdrawing.
Technically, BTC's RSI is only 39.4, still in a relatively weak area. The first resistance above is the SMA20 at 80,936, and the lower Bollinger band at 77,309 is short-term support. ETH's RSI is also weak, with 2,200 as a psychological threshold.
This week is packed with variables: the US midterm elections, non-farm payroll data, and concerns over AI spending—any one of these could reshuffle the direction.
Let's discuss in the comments: ETFs are running, prices are climbing, can this rebound hold until the data is released? 👇
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The crypto industry has a habit: whenever something goes wrong, they say "It's not the protocol's fault, it's the user's fault." This time with BTCPay Server, neither side can escape.
The official statement is very restrained — the investigation found attack vectors targeting instances of version 2.4.1 and earlier, with multiple instances' hot wallets emptied by attackers. At the same time, a boundary was set: there is no credible report showing that users running the latest version 2.4.7 had their funds stolen.
First, understand the nature. BTCPay is not an exchange, not a custodial wallet, but a self-hosted payment service. Many merchants use it to receive $BTC directly. The hot wallet holds real spendable coins, not just accounting numbers. So "multiple instances emptied" means the loss falls not on the platform's balance sheet but on the operating funds of a batch of merchants.
Next, look at the version boundary. 2.4.1 is the watershed, 2.4.7 is a relatively safe zone. This indicates the attack was not indiscriminate cryptographic brute force but exploited known version differences to get in. The loss is therefore a function of time — the later the update, the longer the exposure window.
The market will react slowly. What was taken are existing coins, not new selling pressure, so $BTC prices will not immediately reflect this; but existing coins will eventually be liquidated, and liquidation must go through the spot order book on exchanges.
Something to consider: we say "Not your keys, not your coins," but conversely, having the keys in your hands also means the vulnerabilities are in your hands. The most embarrassing are not those attacked, but those who still don't know which version they are running.$HYPE 88, almost flat, with a trading volume of 40 million dollars, indicating people are still gambling inside, just not adding more chips.
$LINK dropped 5%, to 11.3, and once an old infrastructure like an oracle stops having stories told about it, its decline is particularly quiet.
$ASTER 0.7, with trading volume down to only 1 million, the liquidity of the new perp has already been drained.
These three are three links on one chain: HYPE is responsible for attracting gamblers, LINK feeds prices, and ASTER tells the story of the "next Hyperliquid." Now the first link is still there, but the last two links have no money.
The concern with HYPE is that its valuation relies on fees; once volume drops, 88 is expensive. Tickets like ASTER that have been sideways for a long time usually trend downward.$BTC
Tomorrow is the U.S. midterm election. Sharing a historical BTC cycle signal worth being cautious about.
Looking back at the past three midterm elections, after the votes were counted, Bitcoin all experienced a wave of decline, hitting the bear market bottom at that time:
In 2014, the bear bottom appeared 71 days after the election ended
In 2018, it shortened to 38 days
In 2022, it quickly bottomed in just 13 days
71 → 38 → 13, the interval to bottom keeps shortening, which is hard to attribute to mere coincidence.
The underlying logic is not difficult to understand: the midterm election represents the landing of uncertainty regarding policy and regulatory expectations. Now, with larger capital scale and higher leverage in the crypto market, funds react faster to macro news, and the release of sentiment and selling pressure has become more urgent.
Of course, history does not simply repeat itself, and past patterns do not guarantee replication.
But this time window carries higher risk. It is recommended to manage your positions carefully, avoid heavy bets, and patiently observe subsequent signals of market shifts.
#BTC #Bitcoin #USMidtermElection #CryptoCycle #OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz join forces to promote perpetual contracts entering the compliant US market Shareholders only hope for stock price gains, is it still worth holding treasury companies?
Voting data reveals the truth: 61.5% of shareholders only focus on stock price fluctuations, only 18.6% care about the amount of BTC held per share.
The entire treasury narrative relies on incremental BTC per share to tell the story, but stock price increases completely depend on market premium. Among 47 treasury companies, 29 have mNAV below 1, with a median at 0.87; Strategy is also stuck at 0.87, and the premium has already shrunk.
These targets are merely BTC leverage with equity dilution and also bear management expenses. If you want spot BTC, buying directly is more reliable.
Open the position list, calculate the proportion of treasury individual stock positions, and compare the position premium with the BTC spot price difference.
Holding the 0.87 premium baseline is necessary for stock price to have room for speculation; once it falls below this value, the premium logic directly fails.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB 7 major holders directly bought $12 million worth of spot, then transferred it to their own wallets. There are no large sell orders visible on the market; instead, a group of shorts are constantly paying funding fees to the longs in the contracts. All these shorts will end up becoming fuel for the price rally.
#BNB
$BNB
👇同一晚，同一批多单，$ETH 在赚，$BTC 在磨，$SOL 在跌——仓位分化比价格本身更值得看。有人原本打算早点休息，结果盯着盘面熬到深夜，这种钝刀割肉式的行情，正在悄悄消耗持仓者的耐心。 先看最扎眼的一组对比：$BTC 开仓价 79432.1，现价 78096.7，浮亏 142.08U，ROI -33.62%；$ETH 开仓价 2243.35，现价 2268.1，浮盈 14.79U，ROI +22.24%。同一方向、同一时段，结果却是两个世界。$BTC 今夜小幅回抽，亏损收窄，维持保证金率 1240.72%，仓位本身安全，逻辑上仍在等修复窗口。 真正拖后腿的是 $SOL。开仓价 95.79，现价 94.66，浮亏 16.19U，ROI -23.59%，而且亏损还在扩大。它今天表现明显偏弱，继续下探一层，成为三个仓位里唯一持续失血的那个。保证金率同样是 1240.72%，扛得住，但“扛”和“赚”是两件事。 这里藏着一个容易被忽略的信号：当 $BTC 止跌回抽、$ETH 守住利润时，$SOL 却没能跟上反弹，说明资金在主流之外仍在选择性撤离。弱势币种的反弹滞后，往往不是买点，而是分化加ADA has dropped to $0.19, and Cardano is still desperately upgrading, so why isn't the market buying in?
Today I took a look at Cardano and found an interesting phenomenon worth pondering.
ADA has been hovering around $0.19, but the project has not stopped development.
On October 7, Cardano's CIP-0113 programmable token standard went live on the mainnet, supporting embedding compliance rules such as identity verification and transfer restrictions into tokens, clearly paving the way for institutional assets to go on-chain.
At the same time, the Dijkstra scaling upgrade is still progressing, and the Midnight privacy ecosystem is also developing.
There is no shortage of technical stories, but how about the capital performance?
According to industry reports on November 2, Cardano's DeFi locked value is only about $54.21 million, and the stablecoin scale is about $63.73 million.
This set of data makes me think of a question:
As public chain technology becomes more advanced, why don't users and capital necessarily follow?
My understanding is that the market is no longer willing to pay just for the technology roadmap.
Upgrades can improve network capabilities, but what truly determines the ecosystem's value is whether people use it and whether capital stays.
ADA's future is not without opportunity, but it needs to deliver results more convincing than just technical promises.
If a public chain is very active in development but the coin price remains depressed for a long time, would you choose to position early or wait for ecosystem data to improve?
$ADA
#ADA #Cardano #PublicChainEcosystem #DeFi #AltcoinWhen I look at prediction markets in the crypto space, I can't help but wonder: are the whales just guessing the outcomes, or can they actually push the results themselves? For example, guessing whether Bitcoin will hit a certain price level—capital can indeed influence spot market trends; but guessing whether a certain technical upgrade will be completed on time and pushing the odds higher can't speed up the development progress. Compared to regular trading, here it also depends on whether the participants can intervene in the matter itself. When the order book is thin, the probabilities look quite plausible, but is it really what everyone thinks, or is there just a whale pushing in a bit?$CORE
Core made a hard fork on this chain, moving 68.14 million CORE back from three attacker addresses. Few people in the community mentioned this today.
The matter itself is not small. A total of 97.05 million was lost, 70% recovered, and the rest is still frozen awaiting law enforcement. The team said there was no transaction rollback, no token issuance, total supply unchanged, and the adjustment was done once on the on-chain state.
But the market reaction was CORE dropping 3.7%, to 0.0127. I calculated the recovered coins at the current price, about $860,000. Its 24-hour spot trading volume is only $1.28 million, and contract open interest is $1.06 million.
At this scale, no matter how well the case is handled, it won’t move the price. Recovering assets on-chain reflects governance capability, while the trading market focuses on liquidity and expectations; the two are simply not on the same wavelength.
If there is a real point of interest, it’s when those over 20 million coins will be unfrozen and at what price they will be compensated to users. Until the compensation plan is finalized, I only treat this as an observation sample.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $SOL
17.51 billion USD. The market cap of stablecoins on Solana just hit a historic high, having grown significantly this year.
The strange thing is SOL didn't follow. It's now at 94.4, down 0.9% in 24 hours, sliding from 95.9 to 93.1 during the day, a swing of just three points.
I'm watching the perpetuals side: the fee rate is +0.01%, a standard flat value, with open interest at 336 million USD, and no one added positions today. Stablecoin supply is increasing, but leverage isn't following.
These two sums of money are different. Stablecoins stacked on-chain are cash waiting to be spent, possibly reserves for a payment channel or a market maker; perpetual open interest is money betting on direction. The former coming in doesn't mean someone is buying SOL.
So I don't see this as bullish. Stablecoin supply is a thermometer for on-chain activity; SOL's price will move only when this money is actually spent—transfers, lending, swaps. Right now, the money has arrived but business hasn't started.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ I've never quite understood: what's the real difference between stablecoins issued by banks and the $USDT in my wallet?
HSBC's RedCoin has 50,000 users in a week. I thought it was just another "traditional institution entering Web3" story. But then I realized, they never intended to compete with you on technology.
What they rely on is PayMe, already installed on 3.3 million phones. No need to download again, no need to remember seed phrases, no risk of getting phished again.
We talk every day about decentralization, self-custody, and who really owns the money. In the end, the simplest gateway might be the bank where your payroll account is held.
It's a bit ironic, but it seems we just have to accept it.A bank achieved in one week what many public blockchains haven't accomplished in three years. HSBC's Hong Kong Dollar stablecoin RedCoin launched for one week, with 50,000 users.
Let's break down the value behind this number. RedCoin didn't start from zero users; it was launched directly to over 3.3 million PayMe users for merchant payments and wallet top-ups. HSBC didn't first educate the market but replaced the settlement layer for people already using the app.
What truly determines a stablecoin's survival is distribution. Users won't download a new app, memorize new seed phrases, or get phished again just for a stablecoin. Banks hold the most basic yet strongest assets: payroll cards and daily payment entry points.
HSBC's next step is even more worth watching. It plans to offer services through HSBC HK Mobile Banking, supporting subscriptions to tokenized money market funds. The stablecoin here is not the end but the entry point—money comes in first, then is directed into tokenized money market funds. This is the path to moving the entire deposit business onto the blockchain.
For $USDT and $USDC, this is marginal erosion, not direct replacement. The Hong Kong dollar pool is small, but local banks have inherent advantages. Competition will shift from "who can issue" to "whose customers get tokenized first."
HSBC also plans to establish a global AI and emerging technology research institute in the northern metropolitan area of Hong Kong, operational by early 2027. When deposits themselves can become on-chain assets, the opponents banks need to guard against may no longer be exchanges.The token issuance economics have completely collapsed, no recovery possible. Among the 24 million token issuances accumulated on Pump.fun, only 312 had a market cap exceeding $100,000, a success rate as low as 0.0013%🤡. Frankly, the current model is unlimited supply with limited demand, and this 0.0013% figure itself destroys the narrative of the "next 100x coin".
However, one thing to note is that although $PUMP is declining, the platform's revenue has not dropped; it has already distributed $30 million in rewards. You see, the token issuers remain, but the buyers have left, and the ones making money are always the ones selling the shovels.BTC has bounced back to 78,000, but there is a risk line buried less than 1% below ETH's current level. The price has returned, but the money hasn't fully come back.
$BTC is around 78,000. Related products saw a net outflow of 643 million in one day, but top products had a counter-trend inflow of 177 million, indicating money is concentrating at one point. 77,000 is the defense line, and 78,000 is the position just reclaimed.
$ETH is around 2,270. If the daily chart effectively breaks below 2,251, a long position risk exposure of about 927 million USD will be triggered; the next risk line is a certain whale's 2,122–2,129 range. Products have had outflows for 23 consecutive days, while staking remains locked.
$SOL is around 94. Related products had a record net outflow of 71.47 million USD last week, with BSOL alone accounting for 45.81 million. BTC has strong buy-side depth, ETH has staking hedges, but SOL lacks equivalent support.
In short: BTC's money is concentrating at the top, ETH has a risk line beneath it, and SOL just set a new outflow record. Waiting for the November 6th non-farm payrolls to provide a reason to ease.
For record-keeping of the market only, not investment advice.
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 BTC 77K Standby: The Election Is Not Fireworks, It's a Volatility Fuse 🎇
Market Characterization
78K acts like a rebound gate; failure to break through still favors a bearish short-covering play; holding above the previous low at 76.2K counts only as a local bottom 🧱. Leverage has cooled down: funding rates near zero, open interest declining, retail traders cutting each other off, whales watching the show 🐋. 11 billion options Gamma concentrated between 75K–82K, sellers absent, flash spikes may become the norm ⚡.
Election Variables
Republicans hold both chambers: pro-crypto continuation, year-end median target at 90.8K, post-election sentiment recovery + ETF inflows favor bullishness ✅.
Split Congress: regulatory deadlock, median target 84.1K, short-term volatility, slow bull market after negative factors are fully priced in 🐂.
Democrats control both chambers: strict regulatory resurgence, CLARITY stalled, tax/stablecoin tightening, median target 76.45K, post-election initial drop then watch for support ⚠️.
Historical Experience: volatility is suppressed before uncertainty clears; once results settle and Gamma supply normalizes, the direction is chosen. If 10Y US Treasury yields peak and fall, it's a medium-term positive for risk assets 📉➡️📈.
Key Levels
Support: 76,500 / 75,900 / 75,500
Resistance: 78,500 → 80,000 (no reversal talk unless broken)
Strategy
Currently, 77K looks more like a pre-election liquidity vacuum, not a “election gift” 🎈. Stay light and probe until 78K breaks; exit if 76.2K fails; consider adding positions after election results and volume increase 🚦.20261102 17:26:00 || Strange market situation reappears! Wall Street institutions continue to withdraw funds, yet the market rebounds against the trend! The market recovery is entirely driven by sentiment, with serious doubts about real capital support!
The biggest recent market contradiction: BTC and ETH markets have slightly recovered, but institutional funds show no sign of returning, with ETFs continuously flowing out. Meanwhile, CELO shows an extreme divergence trend, with on-chain revenue continuously increasing, but the coin price remains weak and volatile.
In-depth analysis of the latest network-wide capital data:
$BTC: Quoted at 78197, 24h increase of 0.43%. Single-day large ETF net outflow of 643 million USD, offsetting the cumulative inflow of 441 million USD over the previous four days, indicating overall institutional withdrawal. 78000 is only a short-term weak support; whether it holds determines the authenticity of this rebound.
$ETH: Quoted at 2286, 24h increase of 0.92%. Strong resistance to decline with a slight rebound, but spot ETFs have continuously flowed out for five consecutive days, with a cumulative escape of 431 million USD. Market strength with capital outflow; breaking the 2300 level is necessary for a true recovery.
$CELO: Quoted at 0.07384, 24h decrease of 1.10%. Fundamentals remain strong, with on-chain fees in October generating 129,600 USD, and 1.22 million CELO added to the community fund reserve. Real on-chain revenue continues, but secondary market selling pressure remains stubborn, and positive news fails to translate into market gains. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 【Moderna Q3 Revenue Expected Near $900 Million, But the Real Comeback Lies in Cancer Vaccines】
$MRNA will release its Q3 earnings on November 6, with the market expecting revenue around $890 million and a loss of about $1.1 per share. This quarter's revenue shows a significant sequential rebound, mainly depending on whether the autumn and winter respiratory vaccine sales can meet seasonal demand; however, year-over-year revenue is still expected to decline by about 12%, indicating that the COVID-19 vaccine business has not truly returned to growth.
In Q2, the company reported a net loss of $782 million. Management expects the year-end cash balance to remain between $4.7 billion and $5.2 billion, so short-term cash flow pressure is not yet critical. What truly refocused the market's attention on Moderna was the Phase 3 melanoma cancer vaccine data announced in October: combined with Merck's Keytruda, it reduced patients' risk of relapse or death by 42%. This gives Moderna the opportunity to transition from a single vaccine company to a larger mRNA drug platform.
In this earnings report, vaccine sales determine the short-term performance baseline, cash burn dictates how long the company can sustain itself, and cancer vaccines decide whether there is a second growth curve for valuation. The short-term focus is on whether revenue and full-year guidance can be met; the long-term real bet is whether cancer vaccines can move from clinical breakthroughs to commercialization.
#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 🚀 Falcon Finance ($FF) – Worth Watching!
🔹 $1.665B TVL on Ethereum.
🔹 TVL grew 15.67% in 30 days.
🔹 WLF made a reported $10M strategic investment in July 2026.
🔹 Building universal collateralization infrastructure and USDf.
📊 Strong fundamentals and growing on-chain activity make $FF interesting to watch.
Is $FF on your watchlist?
#FalconFinance #DeFi #CryptoTreasuryDivides 5. There is also a positive side! BTC's recent low points have risen from 76326 to 77114, then to 77517 USD. Each pullback is higher than the last, indicating that there are indeed buyers at the bottom.
6. Now it has reached around 78600, and the next hurdle is 78800. Whether it can hold steady with volume will determine if there is a chance to continue pushing to 80000.
7. Conversely, if 77500 is lost again, the low point at 76326 may have to be tested once more.
What I think is truly worth pondering today is: the price is rising, contract leverage is decreasing, yet ETFs are still seeing outflows.
This suggests the market may be washing out a batch of leverage, but the real big money has not yet given a clear answer.
Don't rush to call a bull market, nor assume a rebound is fake just because it bounces. Next, let's see if 80,000 USD can be taken down! Bitcoin has risen to $78,831! But with today's surge, I noticed something off with the funds!
On November 2nd, BTC rose 1.3%, seemingly about to break $80,000 again. But after reviewing the fund data, I actually think we shouldn't rush too much right now.
Here are 7 key points:
1. Binance spot 24-hour trading volume is $548 million, while contract trading volume is $4.638 billion. The most active market right now is still the contract market.
2. Aggressive buy orders account for 51.1%, bulls only have a slight advantage, far from a frenzy of buying.
3. The most interesting thing is that although the price rose, contract open interest dropped from 97,309 to 95,070, down by 2,239 contracts! This rally is partly driven by liquidations, not purely new long positions entering.
4. The US Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of $643 million on the last trading day, with a total outflow of $976 million over the past 7 trading days. In other words, institutions have not yet shown clear signs of buying back.#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值
The market has been interesting these days.
Gold first fell below $4000, then rebounded to around $3900 today; oil prices dropped more than 3% due to news about Iran negotiations. On the other hand, large tech stocks have pulled back about 11% over the past three weeks, but Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating on U.S. tech stocks today.
I think the most worth watching now is how much selling pressure remains in this AI valuation crash.
Previously, tech and gold were too crowded; when the market turned, everyone deleveraged together. Now, with U.S. Treasury yields falling and oil prices starting to ease, several factors pressuring tech stocks are relaxing.
My own $SNDK long position is still losing, and I haven't dared to add heavily to my tech holdings.
If semiconductors stop falling and U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline, I will start seriously looking at this round of oversold recovery.
What’s really interesting recently is that capital is starting to find direction again.
$SNDK $XAU