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I feel that there is still quite a bit of capital on the sidelines in the market, not truly leaving the crypto market.
BTC's performance during this period has surprised me a bit. Despite the Binance hack incident and a series of negative news, the price did not experience the expected sharp decline. Instead, altcoins like $LIT, $PUMP, $ZRO, and NEAR have started to show some strength.
Concerns about the AI bubble have been suppressing the crypto market for several months. During this time, AI stocks have been rising steadily, while the crypto market has been sideways for a long time. I believe some of the pessimistic expectations have already been priced in.
If the heat around AI stocks cools down later, and the crypto market can still maintain strength, then the funds originally chasing AI assets might well turn their attention back to Crypto.
What I am more focused on is the market environment after the midterm elections. If uncertainty gradually fades, off-market funds may look for opportunities again.
The market doesn't need all news to turn positive; what really matters is that despite continuous negative news, prices never fall. When bad news becomes increasingly unable to push the market down, I am actually willing to remain somewhat optimistic about the future trend.$XAU gold rebounded today, driven by three important reasons!
1. The previous decline was too large, and rebound demand is gradually being released.
In October, gold cumulatively corrected by nearly 10%, with a single-day drop of about 3.6% on October 30 alone. The continuous decline forced many investors to stop losses and exit, but as selling pressure eased, some funds began to buy at lows, and shorts also needed to cover, naturally leading to a recovery rally in gold.
2. US real interest rates have fallen, easing pressure on gold.
Recently, the US 10-year real yield dropped to about 2.60%. The decline in real interest rates means the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced, which is positive for gold and supports the price rebound.
3. Gold's own buying power is starting to strengthen.
Today, the US dollar index was flat or slightly stronger, yet gold still moved upward. This indicates that the driving force behind the gold price increase may not be just the dollar factor; gold itself is attracting funds, with low-level buying gradually emerging.
This gold rebound is both a recovery after overselling and driven by falling interest rates and capital inflows.
However, a rebound does not equal a reversal. Whether it can continue to strengthen depends on whether buying momentum has staying power and if key levels can truly hold. The more volatile the market, the more important it is to stay clear-headed and not be easily swayed by short-term fluctuations. $SOL $ETH #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ I can only make money within my understanding and lose money beyond it!
Although I have been bearish all along, Monday's small rebound still taught me a lesson!
I think being bearish is not a problem,
I just feel that my understanding is still insufficient.
Because since there was a big drop last Friday,
I didn't think about closing my short positions,
which means I wanted to see a continued drop on Monday.
But how much logic is there for Monday to continue falling?
Here, I didn't consider that the poor liquidity on Saturday and Sunday would gradually ease the fear.
In other words,
although everyone was very fearful last Friday,
and sold very decisively,
and stopped losses very decisively,
leading to a rapid plunge in the market and the entire market.
This plunge was definitely caused by emotional contagion,
and this emotion,
I was still betting it would continue on Monday,
but I didn't think about the comforting effect of the weekend on psychology.
After understanding that emotional stabilization makes the market less fearful,
I then understood today's rise.
So,
for some profitable short positions,
I could have completely placed a hedging order over the weekend,
but I didn't.
Therefore, I can only make money within my understanding.
Lose money beyond my understanding.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $SOXL Is it a public chain or a “zombie”? CORE ecosystem's daily trading volume is less than a thousand dollars—has the countdown to zero begun?
As of November 2, CORE is priced around $0.013–0.014, down over 99% from its all-time high, with a circulating market cap of approximately $12 million to $14 million, having fallen into the high-risk small-cap range.
It is not without narrative. CORE focuses on BTCFi and once attracted funds with the pitch of “Bitcoin PoS layer + EVM compatibility + buyback and burn.” But the problem is: the value of a public chain does not rely on whitepapers but on real users and on-chain transactions.
The crash began in March 2026 with the ecological protocol Colend’s liquidation cascade, followed by an incident in September where validators received excessive tokens, causing multiple exchanges to suspend deposits and withdrawals, further damaging trust. Currently, the ecosystem’s TVL is sluggish, there are no hit applications, tokens continue unlocking, and rebounds are repeatedly crushed by sell pressure.
The claim in the headline that "daily trading volume is less than a thousand dollars" should be treated cautiously: some data sources still show 24-hour trading volume at the million-dollar level, but certain trading pairs within the ecosystem indeed have extremely poor liquidity, where even small sell orders can push prices to new lows.
CORE may not hit zero immediately, but it is already in a “semi-zombie” state. It serves as a warning to all investors: in the public chain arena, chains without real capital and users will also slowly bleed out.Don't rush to take "big players bottom-fishing" as a reversal signal; this wave feels more like testing the waters 🌙 Do they really think the bottom has been reached? When I saw that batch of disclosed positions last night, my first reaction wasn't excitement but a bit of a laugh: Tony bought about $4 million in BTC plus $9 million in QQQ, Vida added about $1 million in CQQQ, Boss Shi placed a long-term buy order for 150 BTC at an average price of around $76,700, and Pickle Cat plans to allocate ETH within 72 hours. Spanning US tech stocks, Asian tech assets, and crypto, this portfolio itself speaks volumes—they're not betting on a single coin but on an overall shift in risk appetite. ✨ But there's a misconception too: many see the list and assume "smart money has reached consensus." Actually, it's quite the opposite. According to WhaleRadar data up to November 2, whales' BTC short positions still significantly exceed their long positions, meaning those publicly announcing buys are buying, but hidden positions are still hedging. The crowd psychology is typical now: on one hand, FOMO fearing missing the rebound; on the other, hesitating to add positions, with narrative fatigue written in every group. My own understanding is that this batch of buy orders truly signals a slight shift in capital preference—from pure risk aversion toward tentative exploration of tech growth and crypto, rather than trend confirmation. For BTC, it means the 76k to 78k range is starting to be tested as psychological support; for ETH, the key is whether it can stabilize in sync, otherwise the risk appetite for altcoins will struggle to genuinely recover. The bullish path is clear: as long as laterThe $ETH Binance hacker incident seems to have stabilized for now,
with no continuous stampede occurring,
rebounding for three consecutive days,
the market has fully digested this negative news,
but trading volume has clearly shrunk,
mainstream coins $BTC and $ETH lack sufficient volume,
additionally, there is the issue of profit-taking in the AI sector,
the earnings season has revealed a huge gap between capital expenditures and cash flow returns,
combined with high interest rates raising financing costs,
further intensifying market panic,
it is expected that the rebound will stop tomorrow and the decline will continue. $BTC $ETH $HYPE Folks, recently everyone should have felt that the market has been quite exhausting. Whether institutions or big players, most are choosing to wait and see now, not daring to act rashly. On one hand, the US election is coming soon with too many uncertainties, so funds don't want to risk betting on a direction.
On top of that, with the BiNan fund theft incident, market panic hasn't completely dissipated. Although the withdrawal issues have been resolved, it still serves as a reminder to those playing in this space that no matter how strong an exchange is, without a solid backing, there is always a risk of theft, including okx.
There are no major positive catalysts recently. BTC and ETH mainly are moving in a back-and-forth oscillating pattern. Even Buffett would lose a few million USD and leave. So absolutely avoid heavy positions or going all-in on any direction.
For intraday focus, watch Ethereum closely. The 2230 area is a key strong support, with resistance around 2320. You can try a defensive long position with a stop loss at 2245.
By the way, let's talk about HYPE. Logically, Binance's incident should be somewhat beneficial to HYPE, since its narrative is self-custody DEX, which is its advantage. But the market actually went down. Why?
The core ICE compliance narrative is stuck in this sensitive election period, plus Paradigm unstaked 2.55 million HYPE a few days ago, making market sentiment very sensitive, so it pulled back a bit. #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ This HYPE 50x short position entered at 88.206, target 85.705, with an unrealized profit of +141.77%.
What’s worth mentioning about $HYPE is the timeline: at 15:21, a long position on SNDK was just opened, and by 15:40 this short position was taken — less than twenty minutes apart, the direction reversed.
This isn’t "being bullish and bearish at the same time," it’s a complete lack of unified judgment. You open positions in whichever direction is moving; longs and shorts are dictated by the market, not by you.
Each trade individually profits, but having opposing bets running simultaneously in the account means the gains come from volatility, not from accurate judgment.
From the trend perspective: first, take profit. If the rebound breaks above the previous high but can’t hold, exit; if not, continue to look for new lows. $BTC $ETH $BTW continues to increase short positions. After waiting for a week, it finally broke 1 again. I have figured it out: unlike previous demon coins that dropped all at once, BTW cuts losses slowly and gradually like a dull knife, giving the bulls hope that it will rebound. Then, after the bulls are deceived, it's like boiling a frog in warm water; the price slowly declines under the doggy whale's gradual selling rhythm. Because it's a slow decline, there are many rebounds during the price drop, which makes shorting BTW more difficult than previous demon coins. One careless move and the rebound triggers stop-loss, causing you to miss the subsequent downtrend! So I only dare to use 3x leverage, allowing me to set stop-losses more boldly.🇺🇸 US midterm elections, how will the US stock market and Bitcoin perform?
A chart to understand the key points, will history repeat itself?👇 I almost misread this message as "funds are abandoning the protocol." When people see a decrease in locked value, it's easy to immediately judge it as bearish. On the other hand, thinking it through, I believe this set of data is useful for assessing the scale of funds on the books, but the evidence is not enough to determine whether users are leaving.
According to DefiLlama data, Uniswap V4 currently has a TVL of about $1.094 billion, down approximately 28.8% over the week and 5.0% in a single day. The drop is indeed significant, but I am reluctant to equate the dollar-denominated shrinkage directly with user withdrawals.
There are two reasons: first, TVL is also affected by token prices; if the main factor is price decline, then attributing the entire drop to capital flight would exaggerate the withdrawal intensity—this is my conditional reasoning; second, locked value is a stock, not usage volume, so it cannot alone determine a decline in transaction demand. Next, I want to compare net outflows and trading activity to first distinguish whether the money has just become cheaper or if people have truly left. BTC and ETH have turned positive, but CELO continues to fall! ETFs saw outflows last week, and there is sustained on-chain revenue, so why aren't they moving in the same direction as the coin prices?
First, looking at $BTC, reference price 78197, up 0.43%. On October 30, the US spot ETF had a net outflow of 643.2 million USD, offsetting inflows from the previous four days, resulting in a net outflow of about 202.4 million USD for the week. Withdrawals weren't daily, but the last day changed the whole week's result.
Next, $ETH, reference price 2286, up 0.92%. From October 26 to 30, spot ETFs had net outflows for five consecutive days, totaling 431.4 million USD. However, last week's product fund flows cannot be directly taken as the current overall market buying or selling direction.
Finally, $CELO, reference price 0.07384, down 1.10%. Celo Mondo shows that October's fees were about 129,600 USD, and the community fund's accrued amount was about 108,200 USD. The latter is an estimate, not a completed transfer, and certainly not a dividend to token holders.
My focus is: whether ETF flows can improve, and how much sustained token demand on-chain revenue can generate.
Don't mistake price turning positive as a full capital inflow, nor on-chain income as money arriving in your own account.
This is just a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ In the past ten days, 1.49 million $SOL have been gradually transferred into exchanges, worth about 149 million USD at the current price. On average, nearly 150,000 tokens are moved daily from on-chain to platform wallets.
This volume is worth noting. Retail holders' tokens are scattered across tens of thousands of addresses and won't neatly flow to the same endpoint within a single week. The entity capable of executing this action continuously for ten days is an account holding millions of tokens with someone monitoring the execution pace.
However, many people interpret the word "deposit" as "sell." There are several steps in between: it could be preparing to place orders, using the tokens as collateral to borrow stablecoins, participating in subscriptions, settling OTC trades, or simply consolidating positions from multiple wallets into one. On-chain, you can only see the funds moving; where they go afterward is invisible.
What truly indicates the situation is the order book. To become selling pressure, the depth would thin first, rebounds would shorten, and key price levels would become increasingly difficult to surpass. Conversely, if tokens have been deposited for half a month without increased trading volume or price suppression, it’s highly likely these tokens are intended for other purposes.
Based on the current information, my judgment is: no need to panic, and avoid leverage. If the potential selling pressure of 149 million USD is released all at once, it could cause $SOL to drop sharply in the short term—this possibility is real, so don’t comfort yourself by saying that whales deposit tokens to pump the price. But equally real is that these tokens might just remain idle.
A question to leave you with: if these 1.49 million tokens are truly dumped, can your position withstand it, or will you be forced out at the lowest point?$ZEC has the busiest calendar this week. Decrypt reports it near 1269, up 2% in 24 hours, still 25% below the historical high of 1698 at the end of September. Several attempts to reach 1390 in October were pushed back.
Half of the hype comes from the upgrade, with NU7 scheduled for mainnet activation on November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, while the halving remains unchanged. The other half comes from internal conflict. The community fund ZCG takes 8% per block, accumulating 91,000 coins worth $125 million, recently used to support refugees. Co-founder Sean Bowe proposed cutting this 8%, Naval said a cap of 50 million is enough, and Winklevoss called it "taxation without representation." ZCG only agreed to hand over 36,200 coins, and the big holder big z simply announced liquidation.
The money hasn't really fled. Grayscale ZCSH had a net inflow of $41.1 million in the week ending October 23, with six consecutive days of inflows by the 27th. According to Liqwall's data today, the total network holdings rose 3.7% to $1.67 billion, funding rate at 0.01%, liquidations at $5 million, evenly split between longs and shorts. On Binance, only 44.4% of accounts are long, but big holders have 56.2% of their positions on the long side.
The upgrade is a known factor; if it doesn't surpass 1390 before the 5th, most will likely take profits that day and pull back to the 50-day moving average near 1200. Looking further at the fund dispute: if the 8% cut is really implemented and moved to reserves, removing a long-term selling outlet, big holders will have reason to hold; if no conclusion is reached by year-end, it won't be just big z leaving, and the previous low at 1049 won't be far off.If I were to write this as a strategy, I would first set a rule: if BTC's 24-hour gain is positive, but a certain contract ranks among the top losers, mark it as "relatively weak, to be observed" without directly generating a trading signal. After learning quantitative methods, the habit I most want to change is imagining opportunities just by looking at the leaderboard rankings 🤖
This Hyperliquid perpetual contract public market data shows that as of 14:00 Beijing time, among contracts with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $20 million, $ZEC led with +1.87%, NEAR lagged with -3.38%; BTC rose 0.53% in the same period.
My judgment is that this information is more suitable for filtering research targets and is not enough to confirm a trend. BTC rising while still declining at the same time at least indicates performance divergence; but based on this snapshot alone, it’s impossible to tell if it’s a brief fluctuation or sustained weakness.
The advantage of the rule is turning the "feels weak" intuition into verifiable conditions, but its flaws are obvious: continuously checking 24-hour gains and losses involves highly overlapping windows, so it can’t be treated as multiple independent validations; passing the trading volume threshold doesn’t guarantee sufficient market depth when placing orders. I would consider adding relative performance to BTC and market depth checks to further test the rule’s effectiveness.
If you were to write this observation condition, would you require it to consistently lag behind BTC, or prioritize verifying market depth? How exactly would you set it to avoid mistaking short-term fluctuations for signals? I went all in with all my XP
I bet No, and the underlying logic behind this judgment is not that the financial report is bad; on the contrary, the financial data is very strong.
First, the AI storage theme had already experienced a big rally before the financial report, so the positive news was largely priced in by the market, turning the good news into bad news upon realization.
Second, although the current revenue and orders are outstanding, storage is a cyclical sector. The market will prioritize pricing future supply and price guidance. Once the guidance does not exceed explosive expectations, it is difficult to support further gains;
Third, today the computing hardware chain (optical communication, storage) has collectively experienced a pullback sentiment, with the sector's beta being relatively weak, making it harder for SNDK to independently continue rising.
The current market pricing of No at 65 points itself indicates that most funds believe the probability of further gains is low. My bet is on the pullback after the positive news is realized.
$ZEC $SNDK $BTC
#闪迪Q1营收同比增378%，Q2营收指引强劲 It seems no one has really predicted $PLTR's earnings after the market closes tonight, so I'll organize my thoughts. I've made a table of the earnings day performance over the past three years below, and basically, the following patterns can be drawn: 1. The main business US Commercial is the core indicator; when it accelerates, the stock price soars, but when growth slows significantly (like Q1 2024, Q1 2026), even if other numbers are good, the stock gets crushed. 2. Guidance upgrades have become the norm; the market is used to "beat + raise," and if the upgrade is less than expected or growth slows, a sell news event occurs (Q3 2025, Q1 2026). 3. Large contracts are the sweet spot; when record-breaking, the sweetness is highest, and other indicators like profit margin can basically be ignored. 4. Stock price volatility is huge; the average single-day volatility over the last 12 quarters is about ±16%, so betting on options either wins big or loses big. Combining recent clues: 1. On the Q2 call, the CEO said they want to maintain or even exceed the US Commercial growth rate over the next 18 months. 2. On October 21, a series of customer case releases felt like laying the groundwork for good data. 3. The strong remaining contract value from Q2, after converting to revenue in Q3, has a floor. I tend to think this blind box will be quite explosive, maybe even a new historical best. Just look at their earnings report; no need to listen to the call because the CEO is such a big talker that the market is already immune. Currently, the options market expects volatility around ±12% Wall Street funds are still withdrawing, yet the crypto market suddenly rebounds! The most worth studying in this wave is not who is rising fast, but who truly has the funds to support it.
Just finished reviewing the latest fund data and found a contradiction: BTC and ETH prices are recovering, but institutional product funds have not yet turned positive. CELO is even more special; on-chain income continues to be generated, but the coin price remains weak.
Current market situation:
$BTC: Around $78,197, up 0.43%. In the most recent trading day, spot ETF net outflow was $643 million, with a cumulative inflow of about $441 million over the previous four days. Institutions are not continuously buying; whether $78,000 can hold remains critical.
$ETH: Around $2,286, up 0.92%. Spot ETF outflows have continued for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $431 million. The price is relatively strong, but breaking through $2,300 is still needed for confirmation.
$CELO: Around $0.07384, down 1.10%. On-chain data for Celo shows that in October, approximately $129,600 in fee income was generated, with about 1.22 million CELO counted toward the community fund's accrued amount. Real income is still being generated but is insufficient to prove that selling pressure has disappeared.
In short: BTC depends on whether institutional funds can return, ETH depends on whether the price can absorb outflow pressure, and CELO depends on whether real income can convert into sustained demand. The rebound has appeared, but fund confirmation has not yet!
Do you think CELO will first reclaim $0.075, or BTC will first hold steady at $79,000?
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ [Countertrend List of the Crisis Week: Institutional-Grade On-Chain Infrastructure Attracting Capital]
Security crises at leading exchanges often serve as free advertising for alternative infrastructure. Data from the past week adds several specific names to this list.
Figure Markets Exchange's TVL rose 18.4% on November 2nd, reaching $141.7 million. Figure is a tokenized securities platform led by former SoFi co-founder Mike Cagney, built on the Provenance blockchain, focusing on institutional-grade OTC trading—it represents the "licensed institutions moving securities on-chain" approach: not pursuing permissionless revolution, but using blockchain for backend clearing and circulation of traditional securities. Its growth after the Binance incident indicates institutional funds are seeking a middle path that is "on-chain yet backed by licensed entities."
Jupiter Lend's TVL surged 47.1% in one day to $34.1 million—the lending module of Solana's leading aggregator attracted capital during the incident week, aligning with the logic of "exchange trust damaged, on-chain native finance benefits." Valantis's stHYPE re-staking vault doubled its TVL to $8.8 million within two days, representing the latest building block in the Hyperliquid ecosystem's modular development.
The rise of small and medium CEXs (such as Nexo's +64.3% in one day) should be viewed separately: it is more of an event beta—decentralized outflows from top platforms after user withdrawals. Whether this traffic can consolidate into stock depends on each platform's transparency construction and reserve proof, not on how long Binance's wound lasts.Is the memory chip market starting to cool down? SanDisk targets 1050, Hynix targets 950! $SNDK
Recently, SanDisk and Hynix have shown a clear weakening trend. I believe this round of the memory market may be entering an adjustment phase.
First, looking at the news: Kioxia's latest earnings guidance fell short of market expectations, and the NAND price increase has also significantly slowed. Although SanDisk's earnings are good, its stock price still plunged, indicating the market is starting to worry that the positive news has already been priced in. $SKHYNIX
Hynix's fundamentals remain strong, with good demand and orders for HBM, but the stock price has begun to reflect AI investment returns and valuation pressure. Good earnings do not necessarily mean the stock price will continue to rise.
From a technical perspective, SanDisk should focus on around 1115; if it breaks below, I see 1050; for Hynix, first watch the 1040–1050 support; if lost, the next focus is 1000, with a further target of 950.
My view is: demand in the memory industry still exists, but the market's expectations for future growth may be too high. What we need to watch next is not how good the earnings are, but whether the stock price can continue to absorb these positives.
Do you think this is a normal correction, or is the memory market really starting to cool down?
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $ETH $BTC $SOL Today's market shows a contrast: $BTC is rising, but the total market cap is falling.
TokenPost's midnight snapshot shows the total market cap dropped 2.92% to $2.62 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $108.01 billion; $BTC is at $78,420, up 0.77%, $ETH at $2,293, up 1.17%, XRP at $1.25, and only $SOL fell 0.54% to $95.01. $BTC's market cap dominance rose to 60.1%, $ETH at 10.6%. Finnhub's latest afternoon prices: $BTC about $78,214, $SOL about $94.44.
Why is it moving this way? Because this is not a full recovery, but a contraction of capital. Over the past seven days, major coins have actually been falling; $SOL dropped 5.51% over the week. Today's rebound looks more like the leader stabilizing first, rather than capital spreading out again. The leading $ZEC rose 2.51%, while the laggard MORPHO fell 4.25%, showing rotation is very localized. Liquidations in 24 hours reached $91.2 million, with shorts accounting for $53.3 million, indicating that short positions were partially wiped out by the rebound, but this does not mean the trend has reversed.
The logic is to first see if the leader is stable, then check if breadth follows. $BTC holding near the 100-day moving average around $77,831, $ETH holding near $2,300, provides a basis for continued recovery; if total market cap continues to shrink and breadth does not expand, the rebound is likely to remain limited $BTC has been hovering around 78,200 all day, up 0.8%, looking like nothing happened
$ETH followed with a 0.7% rise, while $SOL actually dropped 1.4%, at 94, losing the 100 mark and never recovering it. The current relationship among these three is: hackers are swapping the stolen 970,000 SOL into BTC, while traders themselves are long on BTC and short on SOL. Are you still expecting SOL to have an independent rally? ETH is even more awkward, with both contract and spot outflows, its rebound entirely relying on BTC's generosity.
The capital logic is simple: after incidents, people only dare to hold the strongest leg. The combined trading volume of the three is nearly $500 million; it's not that no one is playing, but those who do play run away quickly. For SOL to turn around, it must first reclaim 100; if it can't, 94 is just a passing point.Microsoft earnings report shakes the market! Behind the impressive data lies a tough challenge 📊
$MSFT latest earnings delivered a dazzling performance: revenue of $92.28 billion, nearly +19% year-over-year, EPS exceeded expectations. Azure surged 48%, unconfirmed contract revenue RPO soared 73% to 677 billion, with solid order demand.
But the core question arises: is the current stock price around $530 still worth buying?
The forward P/E ratio is 27 times, which looks inexpensive compared to peers; however, factoring in growth, the PEG ratio is actually higher than the sector, meaning much of the positive outlook is already priced in.
The key challenge Microsoft faces next is not how big AI can scale, but how much profit AI can actually generate:
▫️ Small model Decision-1 handles repetitive tasks, reducing computing costs
▫️ Self-developed Maia 300 chip processes about 40% more tokens with the same power, large-scale deployment expected by 2027
▫️ Market rumors about Azure cutting costs have been officially denied; cost reductions mostly remain expectations and have not yet translated into profits
Wall Street is clearly divided: the average institutional target price is $594, implying over 10% upside; on the other hand, Michael Burry warns that tech giants’ AI capital expenditures are overly aggressive, with off-balance-sheet commitments for data centers across the industry possibly reaching 3 trillion. If AI revenue does not outpace investment, profit margins will remain under pressure BTC's October decline matters, but the sharper warning is the demand backdrop: US spot ETF outflows of $643M on Oct. 30 followed four days of inflows, while the Coinbase premium has remained negative for 38 days. Miner revenue is strong, yet revenue per hashrate fell. That mismatch leaves any recovery dependent on renewed spot buying.
#BTCMarketSignalsDiverge If the Democratic Party takes control of Congress, will SPCX face a "political discount"?
What is truly worth watching out for may not be the merger being rejected by a single vote, but rather the extension of the transaction timeline. SpaceX and Tesla have established independent special committees to evaluate the merger, but the transaction terms have not yet been finalized, and shareholder support is also a key threshold. The merger of the two companies may also face antitrust and cross-border regulatory reviews.
If the Democrats control the House of Representatives, hearings, conflict of interest investigations, and congressional oversight pressure may increase, but Congress cannot directly replace regulatory agencies to approve or reject the deal. The market is more likely to first trade on approval uncertainties rather than an immediate merger failure.
Particular attention should be paid to SPCX: OKX's SPCX-USDT is a perpetual contract tracking SpaceX's stock price and does not equal holding company shares. If merger expectations cool down, valuation premiums may shrink; if review risks ease, a rebound repair may also occur.
My judgment is: single-chamber control is likely to trigger emotional fluctuations, while control of both chambers may increase policy uncertainty, but neither constitutes a definite short signal. The focus should be on transaction progress, regulatory statements, and contract premiums—don't take political news directly as trading direction. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ A position of 5200 ETH, I'm more concerned about where it will draw the onlookers' sentiment. After Big Brother Maji cleared his HYPE long positions, he continued to add 25x leverage ETH longs, and overall it's slightly profitable now. This is somewhat interesting, but I think it's more like an attention event for mainstream assets, not yet a signal for small-cap token trends. 👀
My guess is, if onlookers take the big holders' floating profits as evidence of a sector strengthening, then related small tokens might see short-term sentiment opportunities, but not necessarily sustained buying follow-through. High volatility can amplify narratives, but also amplify disappointment; leveraged positions turning profitable doesn't mean the judgment has been validated.
I will separate "what big holders are doing" from "whether funds are spreading out," observing if there are more related assets active beyond ETH, rather than getting excited over a single profit and loss screenshot. Are people recently focusing on the Ethereum ecosystem, derivatives, or other sectors? Will this position change alter your observation focus? Some people say holding for 10 years will make it 10 USD each, but starting from 2021 until now, there are already tens of millions of coins. Look for yourself if any have dropped 500 times and then recovered. Some have, but very few, just about a dozen or so, meaning only about a hundred thousand coins could have one like that. Instead of gambling on this one in a hundred thousand chance, why not play with other coins?The market has bounced back, but everyone take note: the bears still dominate!
(Figure 1) shows the overall market long-short situation; the major mainstream coins $BTC $ETH $SOL are all dominated by bears. The big traders on hyperliquid are even more extreme, with 80% being bears (Figure 2).
BTC is grinding at the 78,000 whole number level; above, the 80,500–82,000 range is a resistance zone pressed by the 20-day moving average, and below, 76,000 overlaps with the 200-day moving average, which is the bulls' last stand.
BTC's RSI has dropped to around 36, which is not oversold but indicates no buyers.
ETH is the strongest among the three today, climbing from 2,250 back to 2,300, leading the rise. But the foundation is still cracked: the spot ETF saw a capital withdrawal of 156 million the day before yesterday, while on-chain activity is strengthening but institutions are withdrawing.
This divergence of strong on-chain activity and weak ETF for ETH, if it can't close above 2,300, I consider it a bull trap.
SOL is the dullest today, oscillating around 95, RSI at 30.5 is close to oversold but no funds are coming in. SOL has strong fundamentals but was oversold mistakenly; however, it is locked down short-term by macro factors. When risk appetite returns, it should lead; for now, you can accumulate a bit at low levels.
The previous low at 92.3 is a very strong support; as long as it holds above 90, there is not much problem. Oversold conditions could trigger a technical rebound above 100 (7-day moving average) at any time.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ BTC has dropped 7.3% cumulatively in October and is now fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000 USD. There is a serious divergence in the funding side. The US spot ETF saw a net outflow of 643 million USD on October 30, ending four consecutive days of inflows. Even more severe is the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index, which has fallen to its lowest level since November 2022, remaining negative for 38 consecutive days. This indicates that US capital buying is almost exhausted.
On the miner side, although total revenue in October hit an 11-month high, revenue per unit of computing power dropped by 17.5%. If the coin price continues to fall, miners may increase potential selling pressure at any time to cover costs.From about 9 and a half hours after withdrawal resumed with a net outflow of $3.64 billion (withdrawals $4.65 billion / deposits $1.1 billion), to now a net outflow of $6.76 billion, the withdrawal scale has stabilized, and the panic of a bank run has basically passed.
I speculate that this outflow includes panic over the midterm elections and security incidents.
The panic over the theft incident has already ended.
The midterm election panic is the early consumption of the bearish expectation that the Democrats will take the House.
After the official results are released, it is easy for the bearish news to turn into bullish.
In the midterm elections, pro-crypto PACs have over $140 million supporting the Republicans.
The election results directly determine the pace of progress for stablecoin legislation, Clarity relaunch, and strategic Bitcoin reserves.
Bitcoin has already risen to 78,150, and crude oil has fallen to 100.77.
In a flat position, none of the trades are suitable to open.
Save trading opportunities for tomorrow.
Those holding long positions around 77,800 following Sanpao and short positions on crude oil at 103 and 105 should take profits at 79,500 and 99 respectively.
Also, after the US stock market opens at 22:30, you can check the Bitcoin ETF data; a decrease in net outflow is a sign of stabilization. As long as there is no large outflow, Bitcoin is considered bullish.$ETH surged to 2,317.84 in the morning but couldn't hold, falling back steadily over three hours to around 2,284, dropping again below 2,300. The 24h gain shrank from nearly 2% to 0.8%.
$BTC is similar, retreating from a high of 78,878 to 78,150, with a 24h gain down to just +0.35%. The volume on these two hourly candles in the afternoon clearly shrank.
According to Liqwall data as of 3 PM Beijing time, there was $100 million liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $59.5 million or 59%. BTC liquidations were $35.9 million (shorts $29.1 million), ETH $31.7 million (shorts $22.3 million).
Binance ETH funding rate remains at -0.0012%, BTC is +0.0077%.
My view is that the morning surge was basically short covering pushing the price up; once covered, no one stepped in. ETH's funding rate never turned positive, indicating insufficient spot buying. I'll be watching closely around 2,250.US spot ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of about $431 million over the five trading days last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of withdrawals.
BlackRock's ETHA led the pack with about $391 million withdrawn in one week.
Grayscale's ETHE saw roughly $37 million outflow.
Fidelity's FETH, on the other hand, had a net inflow of about $63 million, making it a rare exception.
On October 30 alone, there was an outflow of about $155.7 million, the largest single day that week.
The total net outflow over the five trading days was about $431 million, with the total net assets of the products still around $13.2 billion, accounting for approximately 4.8% of Ethereum's market cap.
Five consecutive weeks of outflows on the weekly chart indicate institutions have not turned back; $ETH remains relatively weak compared to BTC.
The inflow to FETH is not enough to cover the sell-off volume of ETHA; capital still prefers to stay on the BTC side, with buying pressure on ETH clearly insufficient.
Current price is around 2287, 24-hour high at 2318, low at 2248, funding rate close to zero, with neither bulls nor bears fully in control.
Price slid down from around 2318 during the day; volume and capital flow do not match, so I don't consider this a trend reversal.
What’s missing is sustained buying, not just a short-term rebound.
Price grinding upwards is possible to watch, but for a real bullish turn, outflows need to stabilize first.
Short-term support is at 2250, near last night’s low; if broken, reduce positions.
Resistance at 2320 is the first barrier; if it holds, then look at 2350.
Stop loss below 2220; target first at 2380, position size remains small for $ETH #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 The most striking thing about the flash crash isn't the drop itself, but that someone pulled the ladder away early.
XPL today quickly fell from $0.086431 to $0.069429, triggering a cascade of long liquidations, with Hyperliquid's HLP vault suffering a loss of about $556,000. The source of the positions is even more noteworthy: 16 wallets have been continuously increasing their XPL long positions since October 29, totaling about 269 million tokens with a nominal exposure of approximately $23 million; among them, 14 wallets transferred funds from Binance about two months ago, and 12 of these withdrew about 2.02 million USDC to reduce margin before the drop.
According to PANews, the timing of these position builds and margin withdrawals is too consistent, suggesting a bearish bias on XPL. Two points to watch: first, whether XPL can hold the $0.07 level; second, whether these 12 wallets will continue withdrawing tokens and exiting. Continued outflows would indicate that selling pressure is not yet exhausted. Additionally, the drawdown of the HLP vault may shake HYPE depositors' confidence in the platform's risk control, making the short-term outlook for HYPE neutral to bearish.
Are you more concerned about the $0.07 support line or the next moves of those 12 wallets? $UNITREE Now the toy factory A-shares and tokens have formed a fixed rhythm difference
A-shares ferment positive news, tokens will not rise synchronously
After the positive sentiment heats up and absorbs off-market funds' attention, it will start to spike and shake out
Manipulating the market is not a one-time thing, but a fixed cycle used repeatedly
The key is not to go long or short immediately after the news comes out, but to wait until the positive sentiment fades and the follow-up momentum is exhausted, then seize the window
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $ENA
Glanced at the gainers and losers list, the screen is full of green.
BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.8%, looks okay. Scrolling down: ENA -4.9%, ONDO -4.1%, WLD -3.7%, LINK -3.6%.
Big caps hold steady, small caps bleed. These days are the hardest for altcoins; even if the direction is right, you can't make money because no funds are flowing in.
With ENA's drop, the fee rate is still slightly negative. Shorts haven't paid longs, meaning it's not a short squeeze, but no one is stepping in.
Perpetual positions total $18 million, not a big market. At this scale, a single large order can shape the chart, so chart significance is limited.
I'm in cash, and watching days like this feels easier. It's not bearishness; during structural bleeding, guessing a rebound has a lower success rate than waiting for it to stabilize on its own.
If I were to act, I'd wait for altcoins to stop falling first. Honestly, I'm also waiting for the day it stops falling.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ HYPE breaks below 85! Paradigm dumps 220 million, still foolishly bottom-fishing?
Good news is obvious, unlocking is a truth-revealing mirror; once 85 breaks, the first to run aren't retail investors.
News: About 9.92 million HYPE tokens unlock on November 6, Paradigm unstaked $224 million in two days. ICE partnership is a long-term trump card, but the short-term market is trading on "unlocking fear" first.
Technical: Daily, 4H, and 1H charts all break down; 1H volume spikes as it falls below 85.5, with net outflow of 230 million in 1 hour and over 52 million outflow in 7 days. The main players are exiting early before unlocking—not a short squeeze, but a rush to sell.
Trading advice: Do not bottom-fish. Short on rebounds at 86.5-87.5 resistance, target around 83-80.
How much more will the main players dump before November 6? $HYPE #加密行业协同守护资产安全 $SOL
1.49 million SOL tokens moved into exchanges in about ten days. At the current price of over 94, that's $140 million sitting above the order book.
In the past, such news would have caused the price to drop two or three points already.
Today, SOL only fell 1.1%, with a 24-hour low of 93.14, and it hasn't truly broken below 93.
What I'm watching is the other side: there are still 3.51 million perpetual contract positions, equivalent to $3.3 billion, that haven't exited. The funding rate is +0.01%, meaning longs still have to pay shorts.
Tokens are moving to exchanges, but positions haven't loosened. These two things together are quite interesting.
My interpretation: this batch of tokens doesn't look like it's here to dump; it seems more like they're just hanging there waiting to sell or market makers are shifting positions. If there was real panic, positions would drop first and the funding rate would turn negative.
So I’m not chasing shorts. I'll wait until it truly breaks below 93.14 before talking—that's when the structure is really broken. Anyone acting now is just jumping the gun.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ [FBI Attributes to North Korea: THORChain Refuses to Freeze Assets, Decentralization Boundaries Put on the Table]
On November 1, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) officially attributed the $6.3 billion Binance hack to North Korean state hackers and publicly sought private sector assistance to block further laundering of the stolen assets. This gave official endorsement to the forensic conclusions of TRM Labs and Chainalysis.
Details of the money laundering channels also surfaced. According to The Block citing on-chain analysts: hackers laundered about $242 million using the Tron network; cross-chain bridges Relay (about $48 million), THORChain, Chainflip, Symbiosis, and others collectively transferred about $140 million out of the Tron network. The choice of Tron is understandable: it is one of the networks with the largest stablecoin circulation and is outside the direct reach of U.S. regulation.
What is truly worth noting is the ideological clash that erupted thereafter: reports say the FBI pressured THORChain to assist in freezing related assets, while THORChain’s co-founder publicly opposed halting the protocol to comply with law enforcement. This is a direct conflict between censorship resistance ideals and law enforcement realities—THORChain’s stance is ideologically consistent (code is law, the protocol stops for no one), but if stolen funds continue to be laundered through its channels, this "consistency" will face dual pressure from legal and market forces. The outcome of this debate may set a precedent for the behavioral boundaries of the entire DeFi industry in major criminal incidents.
Another intriguing undercurrent: while tracking the Binance hackers, on-chain tracking company Chainalysis disclosed it was hacked—attackers used "offensive agentic techniques" to obtain its clients’ names and emails. The offense and defense between investigators and the investigated have escalated to the AI agent level; for users, this is more direct than any single hacking incident: your personal information is becoming one of the targets in this war.Elon Musk really is the king of hype 😆😆
Mag7 was the only one to close in the green last week, with Tesla, the car maker, up +7.4%; Google, the biggest cash burner, fell 12.6% for its worst week since 2008.
Overnight Monday (as of 14:33): Google +1.2%, Nvidia +1.4% led the rebound, while Apple dropped -0.2%, waiting for tonight's US market close earnings report.
Did the hardest hit stocks get picked up first?
$TSLA $GOOGL $NVDA A Sui wallet that has been used for a long time has announced a definite shutdown date.
Suiet announced that development and maintenance will cease after November 14, 2026. Along with this, the API service will also stop, and the Chrome extension will be taken offline. The official message to users is simple: back up your mnemonic phrase or private key and migrate to another wallet compatible with Sui.
This matter deserves a closer look because a wallet is never just a tool; it is an entry point. Once the API stops, all DApp connections, batch signatures, and third-party tasks relying on it will be interrupted; when the extension goes offline, that path in the browser simply disappears. Users don’t leave because of "stopped maintenance"; they leave because they can no longer access it. These two events are often only days apart.
From a broader perspective, the wallet layer in the Sui ecosystem is entering an elimination phase. Wallets without leading traffic and sustained investment will exit one by one, leaving the official wallet and a few top aggregators as the remaining entry points. $SUI itself won’t change because one wallet shuts down, but the valuation logic for ecosystem projects that rely on "entry points" to tell their story will need to be recalculated.
The real question is not why Suiet is exiting, but who will be next. The criteria for judgment are not based on funding amounts or feature lists, but on whether people actually open it every day. This statement holds true for wallets and for the vast majority of applications on public blockchains alike.#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
Based on current pre-sales data: the probability of EPS (earnings per share) slightly exceeding expectations is higher, but the difficulty of significantly surpassing revenue expectations is greater; compared to this quarter's iPhone numbers, the market is more focused on the new CEO, Tim Cook's AI strategy, storage costs, and outlook for the next fiscal quarter (including foldable screens). The guidance in the conference call may have an even greater impact on the stock price than the Q4 numbers themselves.$BTC $ETH The U.S. midterm elections are coming
Prediction markets show the Democrats winning about 93% of the House, around 70% of the Senate, and a 70% chance of sweeping both chambers.
Three things related to the crypto space:
First, the "CLARITY Act" failed in the Senate on September 15; after the Congress turnover, the legislative pace will likely be reset;
Second, the market worries that the U.S. might take action against Iran again after the election, which would push oil prices up and raise expectations for interest rate hikes;
Third, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket both hit record trading volumes in October, and election week will only get crazier.
On top of that, some voices at the Federal Reserve are calling for rate hikes, and Binance was hacked last week.
This week, BTC is caught between politics, interest rates, and negative news, so it might be difficult for it to have an independent rally. #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ The United States is supporting a plan to restore Russian natural gas exports to Europe through Ukrainian pipelines as part of negotiations to reach an "energy ceasefire" before winter. The plan was proposed by U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff during their September visits to Moscow and Kyiv, centering on selling Russian natural gas through a U.S. intermediary to circumvent current European restrictions. The related infrastructure is currently intact, and once the plan is implemented, gas flow can quickly resume. This move comes against the backdrop of pressure on European gas prices. The EU plans to completely stop importing Russian natural gas starting next year, while conflicts in the Middle East have caused nearly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas exports to be disrupted, pushing European gas prices to nearly a four-year high. However, the plan faces multiple uncertainties: Ukraine has resumed strikes on Russian refining facilities, and U.S.-Ukraine relations have become tense due to direct dealings between Trump and Putin. Last month, Trump reached an agreement with Putin in which Washington promised not to tighten sanctions on Russia in exchange for Moscow supplying a limited amount of diesel to the global market to stabilize oil prices. Market Impact Analysis European Gas and Energy Market If the plan is realized, it will exert downward pressure on European gas prices. Currently, prices remain high due to supply concerns; the resumption of Russian gas transit will ease market tensions, especially before winter arrives, and may reduce electricity prices across Europe. This will benefit energy-intensive industries and utilities but will be unfavorable for producers and traders profiting from volatility. This news alone could limit the upside potential of gas futures, but byLiving day to day, when there is something valuable at home, selling it for cash and using it as collateral are two different matters. After retiring and learning about digital assets, I also tend to view these two things separately.
The board of directors of the listed company Next Technology unanimously approved the proposal to sell or mortgage about 5,833 $BTC, aiming to reduce holding risk and improve liquidity. The specific quantity and timing of the sale are undecided, and it does not necessarily mean all will be sold.
I think this news serves more as a reminder about corporate fund management than a signal about the direction of the coin price. Holding assets does not equal having liquid cash on hand; this time the company clearly wants to improve liquidity. The impact of selling and mortgaging on the market is also different, so the authorized amount should not be directly regarded as selling pressure. Mortgaging depends on conditions, and the risk does not simply disappear.
Young friends, when reading announcements, don’t just focus on whether the numbers are big or small; also consider why the company needs cash. Are you more interested in how much it will ultimately sell or the specific terms of the mortgage?AAPL is not recklessly spending on AI; instead, it has become the biggest safe haven in the tech sector, although the price is indeed quite high now.
But if you want a tech company that simultaneously meets "ample free cash flow, strong business capabilities, a huge consumer user base, and extremely high moat barriers," there is currently only this one!
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
$xAAPL Voting stations will start closing and counting votes at 7 PM tomorrow afternoon, and by early the day after tomorrow, the control of both chambers can basically be determined. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The current market consensus is very clear: the Democratic Party is very likely to regain control of the House of Representatives, with the prediction market giving a 92% chance, basically a done deal. The Senate is the real battleground; the Republicans currently hold 53 seats, and the Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to flip it, with several swing states being fiercely contested. The Republican strategy now is to give up the House and focus all efforts on defending the Senate. The division of responsibilities between the two chambers is quite different. The House controls the purse strings, including the fiscal budget, impeachment initiation, legislative oversight, and public welfare appropriations, similar to the ancient Censorate combined with the Ministry of Revenue. The Senate handles personnel appointments, foreign treaties, and final legislative review, more like the cabinet and prime minister roles. Let's consider three scenarios: The probability that the Republicans hold both chambers is already very low, less than 10%. If that happens, Trump's crypto-friendly policies could proceed smoothly, Bitcoin might surge to 83,000 to 85,000, and oil supply-side pressures would ease. But this scenario can basically be ruled out. The most likely outcome is a split Congress, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans holding the Senate. In this case, the Democrats would launch numerous hearings and investigations, block the fiscal budget, and possibly initiate impeachment proceedings, which would be bearish for risk assets. The probability of Democrats sweeping both chambers is also not low, with the prediction market giving over 60%. Then Trump would basically be a lame duck for the next two years, with crypto legislation and easing policies stalled, but the debt ceiling battle might instead trigger some liquidity stories. Continued#AMD Earnings Preview: HeliosAI System Commercialization Progress
The leader has something to say
AMD will release its Q3 earnings after the US market closes on November 3. Previously, Q2 data center business revenue surged 107% year-over-year. The market is focusing on the commercialization of Instinct chips and Helios rack-level systems, as well as whether the demand from major cloud providers can translate into actual revenue.
I believe the macro environment facing this earnings report is extremely perilous. Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 7.2%, and tech stocks are undergoing indiscriminate deleveraging bloodbath. Even if AMD's performance and guidance exceed expectations, funds will most likely take profits on the good news. In the face of a liquidity crisis, fundamentals have been temporarily set aside.
On the market, AMD rose slightly by 0.68% today, and xAMD rose 0.72%. This is just a technical rebound after a big drop; funds are cautious before the earnings report. Community forecasts show 69% believe it will beat expectations, but the key is not whether it beats or not, but whether the guidance can offset macro panic.
BTC fell below 77,000 last night and is still grinding below. Let's see if it can climb back above 80,000. If it can't hold, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance between 84,000 and 85,000 above. Don't chase the rise or sell the dip; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set properly. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SOL Policy background review combined with UBS views and the Federal Reserve dot plot shows some officials tend to believe there is still room for further rate hikes before the end of the year. The core goal of rate hikes is to cool down an overheated economy and suppress inflation.
📈 Related beneficiary assets: Historically, during rate hike cycles, the attractiveness of dollar assets strengthens, capital tends to flow back to the US, and the dollar index remains strong; short-term bond yields rise, highlighting the stable return value of cash and short-term bonds, bank net interest margins are expected to improve, and demand for energy such as crude oil is also likely to be supported.
📉 Pressured assets: On the other hand, high-valuation tech stocks represented by the Nasdaq tend to face valuation pressure; gold, which does not generate interest, often faces greater pressure when interest rates rise; rising mortgage costs also suppress real estate demand and liquidity.
⚠️ Risk warning: The above is only a review of past market patterns; market changes are uncertain and do not constitute investment advice. BTC at 78,100, do you still dare to hold it?
Binance lost $6.3 billion in a hack, ETFs saw a single-day outflow of $640 million, the Fed turned hawkish and didn't cut rates—three days ago BTC dropped to 76,200, and the whole network was shouting "the bear is here." But just now, the price stubbornly climbed back to 78,100, and Saylor is still hinting at adding positions. Is this a dead cat bounce, or your last chance to get on board?
Let's look at the surface first: all the news is telling you to "run fast."
October's high of 86,400 fell to 76,200, evaporating over $10,000 in a month. The $6.3 billion hack, ETF net outflows, the Fed holding rates on October 28 while turning hawkish, and rising odds of a December rate hike. RSI daily at 39, moving averages all pressing above the price. Technicals, news, and macro all bearish.
But look at the chart—the drop to 76,200 didn't break lower, there have been several days of slight rebounds, and the price has already touched back up to 78,100. The bad news has been absorbed, but the price isn't falling anymore. What does this mean?
First: The $6.3 billion hack—is it a disaster or the final washout?
Binance's largest hack ever, FBI points to North Korea, triggering massive liquidations and panic selling. BTC briefly dipped below 77,000.
Sounds like doomsday? But think back:
In 2014 Mt.Gox was hacked, BTC fell from 800 to 200, then later rose to 20,000
In 2016 Bitfinex lost 120,000 BTC, market panicked, then hit new highs
In 2022 FTX collapsed, BTC dropped to 16,000, then 40,000 six months later
Every exchange trust crisis is a script where retail cuts losses and institutions buy the blood. Binance has resumed withdrawals in phases, prioritizing BTC. Panic is receding, price is repairing. The market teaches you with $6.3 billion: bottoms are never in the news, but in the pits the news digs.
Second: ETFs are running, Saylor is buying, who do you trust?
On October 30, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $643 million, weekly flow turned negative. Scary?
But at the same time, Michael Saylor hinted over the weekend at continuing to increase holdings.
Institutions are of two kinds: some run based on quarterly reports, others add positions based on a five-year narrative. ETF outflows are short-term risk aversion, not long-term retreat—the cumulative net inflow is still positive, AUM pressure doesn't mean faith collapse.
If you trade based on ETF daily flows, you'll always be late. Smart money builds positions in panic, retail sells in panic—that's the difference between you and Saylor.
Third: The macro knife is the real thing pressing down BTC.
The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, two members advocated hikes, economic description changed from "solid" to "strong," hawkish to the max. CPI still sticky at 3.7%, real yields high, December hike odds rising.
High rates + strong dollar = hell for no-yield assets. BTC's "digital gold" narrative loses competitiveness against 5% risk-free returns.
But think the other way: macro is already a known bearish factor, the market priced it in long ago. The real trigger could be the November 3 midterm elections—if Republicans control Congress, crypto regulation expectations improve, this is the underestimated catalyst. Macro is pressing you, but elections might save you.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
On one side:
Strong support at 76,200-77,000, hack low not broken
Saylor hints at continued buying, long-term institutions haven't fled
Panic digested, several days of rebound repair
November 3 midterms, regulatory easing expected
Short-term oversold, V-shaped rebound forming
On the other side:
$6.3 billion hack shadow lingers, trust repair slow
ETF single-day outflow of $640 million, funds not buying short-term
Fed hawkish, December hike odds rising
RSI 39 weak, moving averages pressing overhead
Breaking below 76,000 may accelerate drop to 74,000
Key levels
Resistance above: 78,800-80,600 (downtrend line) → 81,000-82,000 → October high 86,000
Support below: 76,600-77,000 (iron bottom) → 75,000-76,000 → 74,000-75,000 buying zone
Trading strategy
Conservative players (recommended for most):
Wait for a pullback to 76,500-77,000, look for long lower shadows or volume-increasing bullish candles, buy lightly in batches, stop loss below 76,000 (risk 2-3%), first target 78,800-80,000, second target 81,500-82,500. Risk-reward at least 1:2. No signal means no position, being out is also a position.
Short-term players:
If near 78,100 it can't break 78,500-79,000, reduce positions near resistance, buy near support, high sell low buy. If breaks 76,000 with volume, short lightly targeting 74,000-75,000, stop loss above 77,000.
Long-term holders:
DCA below 76,000 but prepare mentally for another 10% drop. Post-halving supply contraction, institutional channel, ETF long-term logic unchanged. 2027 target 120,000-150,000, betting on liquidity inflection + regulatory clarity.
BTC now is like 16,000 in 2022—
99% think "crypto is done," but six months later it hit 40,000.
$BTC $ETH $SOL CoinGecko's top trending search is again $HYPE. As of 15:05 Beijing time on November 2, OKX spot is at 85.45, down about 3% in 24h, with total network volume around 1.17 billion USD, and a 7-day increase of about 12%, still some distance from the September high of 97.96.
The hype comes from two points: NYSE parent company ICE partnering with Trade[XYZ] to launch a compliant perpetual contract for US users based on Hyperliquid, pending CFTC approval; DefiLlama shows Hyperliquid's protocol revenue in the past 30 days is about 65.1 million USD, continuously used for buybacks.
My view: On-chain real revenue plus traditional financial endorsement make HYPE's fundamentals very strong among top DeFi projects. However, after the positive news landed, the price has retreated from around 98, digesting the news in the short term. Next, I am watching two things: the progress of CFTC approval and whether revenue can hold up in a weak market. If revenue remains stable, this pullback looks more like a rotation rather than a market top.