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The license deadline has arrived. Among 150 to 200 Brazilian crypto companies, only about 40 have submitted applications.
The application deadline set by the Central Bank of Brazil for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASP) was October 30. Those who have submitted can continue operating during the review period, while those who have not must orderly liquidate and exit within one month after the deadline. Starting November 6, banks will block transactions related to unlicensed crypto companies, directly cutting off their fiat currency channels, and the central bank's review period can last up to 2 years.
This is generally negative for local unlicensed platforms in Brazil. Fiat on/off ramps will concentrate among a few compliant players, benefiting leading exchanges, while small and medium platforms face clearance; the direct impact on BTC and other major coins is limited because local trading is mostly done through international platforms and OTC channels, but attention should be paid to slower and stricter local fiat on/off ramps.
Two scenarios to watch: first, which platforms can obtain licenses; second, after banks start blocking on November 6, whether OTC and P2P premiums will rise.
Are you more concerned about the license list or premium changes?
Source: PANews$BTC The Federal Reserve resumed rate hikes on September 16, and it has been 47 days since then. Surprisingly, BTC has been the best performer.
OKX Closing prices on the rate hike day → today at noon:
BTC +3.1%
S&P 500 +0.4%
Nasdaq 100 -1.6%
ETH -4.7%
Gold -8.9%
Silver -20.9%
The saying "Rate hikes = the end of crypto" did not come true this time. But don’t celebrate too early: BTC surged to 86,617 intraday before giving it all back. The closing price on the rate hike day was 76,201, almost the same as the October low of 76,265.
Now some officials are calling for "at least two more hikes," and CME FedWatch shows about a 70% chance of a rate hike in December. Most of the negative impact is already priced in. The real risk is an upside surprise: if this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are strong, pushing the probability to 90%, the 76,200 level will be the true test.
The rate hike itself is not scary; what’s scary is hiking more than expected.
Not investment advice | Data sources: OKX, Federal Reserve, CME FedWatch #NonfarmIncoming, will December rate hike plans change? USDC only decreased by $55.95 million in one week, such a relatively small change makes it impossible for me to take "collective capital withdrawal" as a ready-made conclusion. In this set of data from DefiLlama, the total amount of stablecoins across the network declined, with USDT's contraction being more obvious, but $USDC did not show a change of the same scale.
I run a small company, and when I see this kind of report, I would first adjust the growth budget rather than immediately assume that all old customers have left. My judgment is: this news is somewhat negative for narratives relying on new capital to realize expectations, but the impact on the entire market cannot be generalized. The inconsistent changes among different stablecoins at least indicate that you cannot explain all capital behavior with a single total.
Doing business is about input and output; expansion depends on cash flow, not on imagined orders. If new capital continues to lag, then optimistic expectations supported by subsequent follow-up are even harder to realize, which is my speculation. But circulation volume is not a transaction ledger; whether existing funds are willing to trade and how frequently they trade is not revealed by this information.
I would treat this kind of data as a reminder to check risk reserves rather than immediately drawing conclusions. Having money on the books and being able to confidently expand investment are two different things; next, I want to see whether the contraction will shift from localized differences to a widespread phenomenon.Using prediction markets to gauge sentiment on Bitcoin, I always want to ask first: can this market depth handle the money? If the order book is thin, then a slight move by big players can change the odds, making it look like everyone suddenly changed their mind, but in reality, it might just be that few are willing to take the other side. When trading coins normally, if the depth is poor, you can switch to another trading pair, but for the same prediction event, there might not be alternatives elsewhere. The odds on the screen are quite clear, but when you really want to exit, is there still someone on the other side?$PEPE is hanging with a zero-cost PEPE worth twenty million dollars on its head.
No one dares to really push this market up.
The hacker has only sold 25% of that batch, the big chunk is still being watched closely above.
Any buying that tries to gather some funds for a rebound is immediately cashed out and drained.
In the face of absolute no-cost selling pressure, using moving averages to draw support levels is pure nonsense.
#PEPE
$PEPE
👇Google announced yesterday that satellites in orbit ran Gemma4 using TPU and even sent back a space haiku to the ground. Four TPUs, with a maximum power output of 1 kilowatt, can only fully power one at a time and run for just 20 minutes. Why send computing power to space? Is it still about electricity? The solar panels in orbit generate about 8 times the power compared to those on the ground. Miners on the ground are competing with AI for electricity, while data centers are already being deployed in space. It's truly mining in the sky #谷歌财报后股价大跌，AI投资回报受关注 $GOOGL To pour some cold water first, I don't directly take a sharp increase in open interest as bullish news. The $ZEC contract open interest rose from about $571 million to $662 million in 4 hours, an increase of 15.95%; during the same period, the price rose from $1241 to $1278. Even though both price and open interest increased, it cannot be directly concluded that bulls are controlling the market.
I am cautious for two reasons: open interest only indicates an increase in open contracts and cannot alone determine which side is stronger; the funding rate is 0.0047% per hour, which annualizes to about 42% at the current rate, meaning long positions have a cost. My speculation is that if buying pressure doesn't keep up, the added leverage might actually amplify the pullback rather than support the price.
Of course, those bullish might disagree. If subsequent trading volume continues to expand, the price stabilizes, and the funding rate cools down, I will reduce my bearish bias. Are you bullish or bearish on this increase in open interest? Share your reasons, especially how you view the relationship between open interest expansion and funding costs.Patricio Worthalter 10 小时前在链上抛售 2000 $ETH 换为 453 万枚 USDC，均价 $2269，随后他将 USDC 中转至 0x95A…C2C7f，即此前标记过的 ICO 远古巨鲸I always thought tokenized stocks were a benefit for retail investors, but it turns out the companies themselves were the first to block it.
By November 1st, 50 US-listed companies publicly opposed it, including Nvidia, Nike, and Costco. OKX teamed up with the NYSE parent company ICE to try it, covering over 60 companies, but before all votes were cast, the opposition had already piled up.
Later I realized: the companies don’t get a penny. Third parties package the stocks into tokens to sell, the platform earns fees, but the companies get no financing.
Being able to trade anytime doesn’t mean there’s always a buyer. Market makers are off duty when the market is closed, and when spreads widen, it can’t compare to the depth of something like $BTC.BITCOIN AND THE US MIDTERMS : WHAT HAPPENED LAST 3 TIMES
Midterms are Nov 3, Here is how $BTC behaved around 2014, 2018 and 2022 :
Q4 of the midterm year :
2014: ~-17%
2018: ~-42%
2022: ~-15%
The 12 months after the election :
2014: ~+24%
2018: ~+45%
2022: ~+92%
In each cycle, the major low came within 71 days of the vote
Three data points are not a pattern, and each cycle had its own driver (bear markets, FTX in 2022)
But traders will be watchingA recent strange phenomenon in the crypto space: projects are getting better at storytelling, while those that can actually show verifiable progress are less discussed. Tonight, let's talk about three coins I haven't covered before. ALGO is betting on "security in the quantum era." On October 27, Algorand officially reiterated its post-quantum cryptography roadmap: Falcon-1024 accounts entered the mainnet in August this year, but old accounts still need to migrate themselves. This is solid technical progress, but there is still a way to go before the entire network is fully quantum-resistant. Leading in technology does not mean ALGO will immediately rise. What caught my attention about APT is its supply. The official dashboard on November 1 showed about 170,000 APT burned in the past 30 days, while approximately 1.5 million were issued monthly through staking during the same period. Burning does exist, but it is still far from net deflation. Whether trading activity can boost burn volume is more important than slogans. ENA is exploring institutional funds. On October 29, the Ethena governance forum released an institutional lending framework, listing counterparty qualifications, collateral, and daily verification requirements; this indicates that expansion is starting to emphasize risk control. But no matter how good the system is, it cannot eliminate the risk of collateral price crashes and defaults. I like this kind of progress that can be checked item by item: ALGO looks at usage, APT looks at net issuance, ENA looks at risk exposure. Which path do you think is more likely to yield real value? #ALGO #APT #ENA Not investment advice. A matter that seems good for everyone has been jointly suppressed by 50 companies.
As of November 1, 50 US-listed companies publicly opposed the tokenization of their own stocks, including Nvidia, Nike, Costco, and Reddit. OKX's cooperation with ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, aims to cover more than 60 US companies. Both supply and demand exist, but the business cannot move forward.
The apparent logic is that all three parties win, but the third party's gains are illusory: when stocks are put on-chain, the listed companies do not receive a penny. Platforms package stocks into tokens and sell them, with fees going to the platform; financing does not benefit the company, and the company cannot control issuance or circulation. It's equivalent to others creating a market with your stocks that you cannot enter.
The conflict is not just about money. Token prices may deviate from traditional markets during market closures; the same company's stocks are scattered in multiple places, fragmenting liquidity; whether token holders count as shareholders and can vote remains undecided.
An easily overlooked judgment is: being able to trade 24 hours and being able to execute trades anytime are two different things. During market closures, market makers decrease and spreads widen; the depth like $BTC has been built over more than a decade.
But the demand is real. Binance disclosed on October 15 that the bStocks ecosystem of $BNB reached over $1 billion in scale within four months, with about 42% of trading occurring outside normal US stock market hours as of August 2026. The SEC only provides an innovation exemption, not a free pass.Four midterm elections, four major crashes, tonight it's the fifth time!
Americans vote tomorrow, but crypto veterans are watching not the election results tonight, but the calendar.
After the past four midterm elections, Bitcoin's drops were 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, each time less severe but never avoided; in the fourth quarter of election years, Bitcoin closed down three out of four times with declines of -16.7%, -42.2%, and -14.8%; the fastest bottom appeared 13 days after voting, the slowest took 71 days.
However, CoinDesk's data analysis gave a reversal: tech stocks don't have this problem, their bottoming times align perfectly with the halving cycle. So the real curse is most likely the cycle, with elections just being the punctual scapegoat every year.
This time the variable is institutions exiting first: on October 30, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $643 million in one day, polls show Democrats leading 47% to 36%, and the bill's prospects remain uncertain.
The day before the election, the biggest gainer was TRUMP, rising 10% intraday—voters haven't cast ballots yet, but gamblers already have. The Fear & Greed Index is 37, the market has bled a bit but positions are holding at the door.
BTC is now at $78,300, just climbed back from $76,300. I only watch one line: $73,000, the average cost of short-term holders. Hold above it, and this year's script rewrites; break below, don't rush to sell, survive the election week first.
$BTC #中期选举btc
In terms of capital flow, institutional funds have shown a significant withdrawal. The US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $441 million over four consecutive trading days from October 26 to 29, but on October 30, it suddenly turned into a net outflow of about $643 million, with a significant expansion in single-day outflow scale. Among them, BlackRock IBIT outflowed about $234 million, Fidelity FBTC outflowed about $201 million, and ARKB outflowed about $130 million. The buying power accumulated from continuous inflows was basically interrupted by a one-time shock. It is worth noting that the ETF fund outflow occurred in the same time window as the Binance security incident, indicating that institutional funds currently prefer to reduce risk exposure rather than buy the dip.
From a technical perspective, BTC is currently in a narrow range around $77,000. On November 1, the price was about $77,725, with an intraday high-low fluctuation of only about $656, which is a relatively low volatility level recently. This trend indicates that bulls and bears are temporarily in balance, but after a rapid decline, low volatility does not necessarily mean the bottom has been formed; rather, it may be waiting for new news to stimulate. In the short term, focus on the support around $76,300; if it breaks down effectively, it may further test $75,000. On the upside, pay attention to the resistance area between $78,000 and $80,000. Only by stabilizing above $80,000 again can the short-term structure be initially improved. $BTC price broke below the trendline, the rebound did not create a new high, and it broke below the secondary high's low point again, which aligns with Dow Theory's 123 rule. A double divergence appeared on the 15-minute chart, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. The bullish positions below show that bulls exerted the greatest effort at the highest point but failed to produce results—effort without effect. This indicates that bears have taken short-term control of the market. Finally, a 15-minute candlestick closed below 78444, confirming the bears' entry. Stop loss is set at the previous high, and there are two take-profit levels: the first at the low point of this short-term trend, and the second at the daily 120 EMA. The final risk-reward ratio is about 3.5. The market may not always follow expectations, so be ready to take profits early on short positions.The U.S. midterm elections are coming!
Prediction markets show the Democrats have about a 93% chance of taking the House, around 70% for the Senate, and about a 70% chance of sweeping both chambers.
Three things related to the crypto space:
First, the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate on September 15, and with Congress changing hands, the legislative pace will likely be reset;
Second, the market worries that the U.S. might take action against Iran again after the election, which would push oil prices up and raise expectations for interest rate hikes;
Third, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket both hit record trading volumes in October, and election week will only get crazier.
On top of that, some voices at the Fed are calling for rate hikes,
Binance was hacked last week,
and this week $BTC is caught between politics, interest rates, and negative news, so it might be a bit difficult for it to have an independent rally.$FIL
Decentralized storage has a compelling proposition, but convincing customers to move beyond traditional cloud providers is not an easy task. Filecoin's long-term opportunity depends on practical storage demand, retrieval performance, pricing competitiveness, and reliable service providers. The technology addresses a genuine infrastructure challenge. However, sustainable customer activity will be a more meaningful indicator than network capacity alone.The unrealized gains of $ETH have been wiped out, meaning those who wanted to take profits have finished selling.
$ETH is now standing at the 2200 line.
The 20-day moving average at 2424 is still pressing overhead.
How is this number calculated: unrealized gains reset to zero means even the last batch of high-level buyers are no longer making a profit.
When they sell, the selling pressure is passed on to the next batch of buyers with lower cost.
In plain language: those willing to take profits at this price level have basically cleared out.
What remains are those unwilling to admit losses and those who just took over.
$SOL is stuck at the lower edge of the 90 to 125 range.
On-chain active addresses are 1.88 million, still a new high.
Active addresses mean people are using it, not necessarily buying it.
These two things are often confused.
The profit-taking selling is done, but that doesn’t mean buying is coming in.
It only indicates that the number of people pushing the price down has decreased.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧
#$ETH $SOL 🔥 Don't rush to declare that a new super bull market for BTC has arrived! The truly dangerous market often isn't when no one is bullish, but when everyone starts believing in the bull market again while risks quietly accumulate.
📈 I lean towards one possibility: the current rise might just be a B-wave rebound within the bear market, also known as a "Fool’s Rally." Prices can rise, sentiment can heat up, and it might even make the market believe the super bull market is about to start, but that doesn't mean the bear market structure has ended.
🎯 What’s more worrisome is if this rebound surges all the way to $115,000, market sentiment could quickly heat up, and targets like $200,000 or $500,000 will be repeatedly mentioned. By then, more and more chasing funds might enter, and risks could be masked by optimistic sentiment.
⚠️ If this is just a temporary rebound within the bear market, then once it weakens again, the pullback could be quite severe. Of course, the B-wave judgment and the $115,000 target are just scenario projections and must be verified with subsequent price action.
🧠 The most important thing today is not guessing how high the bull market can go, but distinguishing between a rebound and a reversal. Brothers, do you think this BTC rally is a true new bull market, or the last spree within the bear market? #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ I'm a bit skeptical about "never selling." HODLing Bitcoin can be a long-term plan, but pretending the sell button doesn't exist—I just can't do that. Seeing companies buy in for the long haul, I admire their patience, but they have operating cash flow; I can't just copy that directly. If it were a strategy, there should be an exit for situations like needing cash urgently or changing your judgment. Otherwise, if you keep dollar-cost averaging and suddenly need money, do you have to argue with the tough promises you made to yourself at the start?A reduction in supply does not necessarily mean that the trading volume decreases proportionally. Upon seeing this news, my first reaction was not to rush into interpreting the "29%" as panic; the more eye-catching the number, the more important it is to understand exactly which layer it measures.
CryptoSlate cited ledger data showing that RLUSD's supply on the XRPL dropped by 29%, but the reserve of a $XRP/RLUSD trading pool changed little, and the situation of funded orders showed differentiation. As for the reason behind the supply decrease, it remains unclear at this time.
My judgment is that this is more like a liquidity signal that needs to be analyzed in parts and is not enough to conclude a full capital withdrawal. Supply is a total metric, while pool reserves correspond to local trading scenarios; the lack of synchronized contraction between the two indicates that the former cannot directly substitute for the latter. Conversely, a stable pool cannot serve as proof for the entire chain.
For ordinary users, I believe whether orders can absorb trades is closer to the actual experience than the supply figures themselves. If subsequently the pool reserves and funded orders both weaken, I will then raise my alert for trading friction. This is my observation approach, not a conclusion that has already occurred.
I will continue to monitor the reasons for the decline and whether liquidity changes synchronously, avoiding attaching premature narratives to a striking percentage.Last month, 10 people agreed to hold off for now during the meeting, but surprisingly, 2 people demanded an immediate hike on the spot. Logan from the Dallas Fed even directly said at least two more hikes are needed, each by 0.25 points. The folks at the Fed are really ruthless! $BTC is fluctuating around $77,000-$78,000. It dropped sharply throughout October, sliding down from over $80,000, breaking the previous support range, showing clear short-term weakness. But the resistance at the $80,000 level is quite strong, making a rebound difficult. $ETH is now around $2,250. It also fell more in October, with funds clearly rotating back to Bitcoin. The key support is near $2,200, and the resistance band between $2,300-$2,350 is quite strong, making a breakout equally challenging. There is now both a strong expectation of rate hikes and the upcoming October nonfarm payroll data. The short term is already suffocated by rate hike expectations! It all depends on whether the nonfarm data can provide a clear direction after release. #Fed officials signal rate hikes, December expectations still divided 📊 MARKET BRIEF – NOVEMBER 2, 2026
📈 MARKET UPDATE
• Gold rebounds to $3,900/oz.
• Bitcoin rises slightly to $78,000, while altcoins remain weak.
• Iran proposes a two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
🚨 HIGHLIGHTS
• Binance: Nearly $6B in reported net withdrawals, mainly to personal wallets.
• Crypto ETFs: Weekly outflows of $202.6M (BTC), $431.5M (ETH), and $71M (SOL).
• OKXICE: Growing opposition to its tokenized stock initiative.
• BTCPay Server: Issues an urgent security warning. The market has rebounded, but everyone should note, the bears still dominate!
Chart 1 shows the long and short positions across the entire market; the major coins $BTC $ETH $SOL are all dominated by bears. The hyperliquid top traders are even more extreme, with 80% being bears (Chart 2).
BTC is grinding at the 78,000 round number; above, the 80,500–82,000 range is a resistance zone pressed down by the 20-day moving average, and below, 76,000 overlaps with the 200-day moving average, which is the bulls' last stand.
BTC's RSI has dropped to around 36—not oversold, but indicating no buyers.
ETH is the strongest among the three today, climbing from 2,250 back up to 2,300, leading the rally. But the foundation is still fractured: spot ETF funds retreated 156 million the day before yesterday, while on-chain activity is strengthening but institutions are withdrawing.
This divergence of strong on-chain activity and weak ETF for ETH—if it can't close above 2,300, I consider it a bull trap.
SOL is the dullest today, hovering around 95, RSI at 30.5 is close to oversold, yet no funds are coming in to catch it. SOL is fundamentally strong but was oversold mistakenly; however, it is locked down short-term by macro factors. When risk appetite returns, it should lead; for now, you can accumulate a bit at low levels.
The previous low at 92.3 is a strong support; as long as it holds above 90, there’s not much problem. Oversold conditions could trigger a technical rebound above 100 (7-day moving average) at any time.#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
The October nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 60,000, up from the previous 29,000. If the data meets expectations, it will strengthen bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, with the current market pricing probability rising to about 75%. Hawkish divisions within the Fed are also widening, with the Dallas Fed President even suggesting at least two more rate hikes are needed.
The simultaneous sharp declines in U.S. stocks and gold are typical symptoms of a liquidity squeeze rather than a failure of safe-haven logic. The tech stock sell-off triggered institutional portfolio rebalancing and margin calls, forcing investors to sell gold to raise cash, causing gold to fall alongside risk assets in the short term. The high interest rate and strong dollar environment continue to suppress gold's rebound potential, with gold's safe-haven attribute giving way to liquidity needs.
$BTC's correlation with the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield has risen above 0.6, with the pricing focus shifting from pure "risk appetite" to a "sovereign credit hedge" narrative. However, high real interest rates still suppress valuation expansion. The current rebound relies more on leverage than incremental spot buying, with stablecoin supply showing no significant expansion. A true trend reversal requires sustained inflows of new capital. Meanwhile, after the Binance security incident in October, the industry's coordinated fund-freezing mechanism is beginning to take shape. CertiK estimates that cumulative industry losses by 2026 have reached about $9.2 billion, and the patching of security infrastructure is becoming part of the medium- to long-term credit reconstruction of crypto assets.
Risk appetite for U.S. stocks and crypto will continue to be under pressure, and gold is unlikely to strengthen independently before liquidity pressures ease; if data disappoints, the suppression of various assets may temporarily loosen.Seeing this message, I reflected on a bit of life experience: adding a big item, the purchase price is eye-catching, but the daily expenses afterward are easy to overlook. I study digital assets and am also used to first checking this detailed account.
ZEC contract open interest increased from about $571 million to $662 million over 4 hours, a 15.95% increase; during the same period, the price changed from $1241 to $1278. The funding rate is 0.0047% per hour, approximately 42% annualized. I think this message carries more weight for those planning to hold contracts long-term than for those just watching the excitement.
The expansion of open interest is more significant than the price change, indicating deeper contract participation, but this does not mean everyone is betting on a rise; if the positive funding rate continues, longs also bear costs, so direction judgment and holding costs must be calculated separately. The annualized figure is just a projection based on the current rate, not a full-year bill. Young friends, don’t just focus on price gains; I also remind myself: next, watch if the funding rate can fall, and don’t mistake the hype for confidence.$BEAT The original control beauty — this is not just coin speculation, it's a dog trader playing bungee jumping!
【Hardcore Review】:
On the 1-hour chart, it irrationally surged from the bottom at 0.065, skyrocketing nearly double to 0.115, now oscillating high at 0.105. Looking at the MACD red bars shortening, momentum is clearly exhausted.
Looking at the data in chart 3, I broke out in a cold sweat: the proportion of long accounts is as high as 69.38%! Retail investors are all immersed in this violent rise, crazily chasing longs.
Macro and Insights:
Market liquidity is extremely scarce now, speculative funds can only pick coins with small and controllable markets. The violent surge is just to attract retail investors to take the plate, creating a money-making illusion. This is not value discovery at all, purely a meat grinder of capital games.
My advice:
Too many longs at the high level means death! This kind of stock controlled by manipulators with no technical basis often follows violent surges with violent chain spike washouts. Don't chase the highs, and don't try to guess the top. Wait for it to really drop a big bearish candle, blowing out this 69% of longs, then we consider catching on the right side.US Midterm Elections vs $BTC
Look at the historical rhythm:
Midterm Years (Drawdowns):
🔴 2014: -57%
🔴 2018: -73%
🔴 2022: -64%
The Year After (Recoveries):
🟢 2015: +34%
🟢 2019: +92%
🟢 2023: +155%
2026 is a midterm year. We are currently in that period of political uncertainty and price drawdown.
But if history rhymes, the real explosive leg up comes *after* the elections when the political fog clears. The four-year halving cycle overlaps perfectly with this political cycleOn the same morning, Asian stock markets were split in two. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Tech Index surged 2.85%, led by AI hardware, semiconductors, and optical communications; meanwhile, the Singapore Strait Index hit its lowest point since July, and despite explosive export data from South Korea, the Korean won weakened as foreign capital withdrew from the stock market.
Don't be fooled by the red and green of a single market. When some rise 3% and others hit new lows in one day, it means money isn't leaving the market but moving within Asia—from places drained by foreign capital to sectors like AI hardware that still have stories to tell.
Watching the market means not just focusing on index ups and downs but tracking capital flows. Where money moves in, the story isn't over; where money is pulled out, even strong fundamentals can't withstand the selling pressure. Following where the money goes is far more useful than just watching which index rises or falls. Conclusion first: $TRUMP rose from 1.589 to a high of 1.777 in the past 24 hours, now at 1.701, up 7.1%. But what should be focused on is not the increase, but three numbers.
① At 22:00 on 11-01, the 1H trading volume was 40.34 million USD, 25.8 times that of the previous hour, with the price surging from 1.617 to 1.777.
② Open interest simultaneously rose from 14.44 million USD to 17.84 million, up 23.5%. When the price rose, people really added positions, not just shorts covering.
③ The funding rate stayed at the floor price of 0.005% for 9 consecutive periods, with the perpetual premium at zero—there was no short squeeze premium; longs were buying piece by piece.
Money bag: OKX perpetual 24-hour trading volume was 178 million USD, 4.2 times the spot volume of 42.6 million; the top 20 perpetual buy orders totaled 1.5 million USD, while spot only had 300,000. Perpetual contracts have less slippage, but spikes and funding fees all remain on the perpetual side.
The background is the US midterm elections on November 3: the crypto industry spent 200 million USD on votes, and the CLARITY Act’s chance of passing is close to zero due to a Senate setback. The rise is a political expectation premium, not on-chain data. I haven’t found any specific announcement explaining this wave, so don’t take 1.777 as an anchor.
For this election week wave, is 1.777 the top or just the first stage? $TRUMP🔥The pressure on BTC may not be over yet! What makes this drop worth watching is that gold and US stocks are also under pressure simultaneously, so the risk is not just coming from within the crypto space.
📉 On November 2nd, my BTC trading bias remains bearish. Around 78500 is a key observation zone; if the price rebounds to this level but fails to hold firmly and shows clear signs of weakening, I will consider looking for short opportunities. My overall downward view for this week remains unchanged for now, with continued attention on 72000 below.
🌍 Why do I remain cautious? Because market risk appetite is being affected by multiple factors. Gold is weakening, US stocks are adjusting, and crypto assets can hardly stay completely unaffected. Once capital tends to reduce risk exposure, high-volatility assets are often hit harder.
🧠 However, shorting should not be based solely on directional judgment. 78500 is just an observation price, not an unconditional entry signal. If the price breaks through resistance strongly and holds, we must guard against the bearish view failing.
⚠️ What I value more is trading discipline: wait for confirmation on rebounds, set stop losses when entering, keep position sizes reasonable, avoid holding losing positions stubbornly, and don’t add blindly. 72000 is the current target expectation, not a guaranteed price to reach.
Brothers, do you think BTC still has rebound potential this week, or will the bearish trend continue to dominate? #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ In the first 10 hours after withdrawals resumed, Binance saw a net outflow of $3.64 billion. BTC rebounded over the weekend, and some community members said the incident was over and funds had returned.
I don't see it that way.
If even market makers pull their funds, the order book thins out — the depth for the same sell order will be completely different. When FTX collapsed in 2022, the market was dealing with more than just the exchange's own problems; it was a chain reaction after liquidity collectively withdrew. The nature is different, but the thinning of the order book happened back then.
Withdrawal data is still changing. For the past couple of days, I’m treating the market as if it’s recovering. If withdrawals stabilize, order book depth returns, and ETF funds flow back in, I will revise my judgment.On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets. Among 32 economists, 31 bet on a rate hike, with only one from Deutsche Bank betting on a pause. Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly did not raise rates.
This kind of situation is exactly the scenario I like. When a result is priced in 100% by the market, guessing the right direction hardly makes money—if rates rise, it just confirms expectations and prices remain unchanged; but if rates don’t rise, the Australian dollar and short-term bonds immediately reprice, and the odds pay out several times over.
Trading and playing cards follow the same principle: when everyone bets on one side, the real value lies on the opposite side. It’s not about betting on the underdog, but learning to place heavy bets only when the odds are severely asymmetric, and otherwise holding back. Low frequency, big bets, waiting for asymmetry—these three are what allow you to survive long-term, not guessing daily price ups and downs.The whole screen is teaching you to use Middle East headlines as a hedge, but let me show you some data that no one is watching: Tokyo's electricity price just hit a new high since September 2022, and the LNG spot price has risen to 34 USD per million BTU, more than three times the pre-war level.
This is the real transmission path of the Middle East chess game. Oil and gas prices are at high levels, first pushing inflation, then keeping yields in various countries from falling, and finally hitting risk assets together. Mitsubishi UFJ said it very plainly today: the rise in US yields combined with high oil prices will continue to pressure emerging market currencies and assets.
So stop treating the war as a bullish factor and blindly buying hedges. The real pricing is—this is a conflict being traded as if it were a rate hike. Gold has fallen along with it these past two days, which is the best reminder: the hedge narrative is invalid in this game.🔥 On November 2nd, BTC rebounded to around 78,500, but I still prefer to look for shorting opportunities! The overall approach this week remains unchanged: do not easily change the bearish plan until the trend reverses.
📉 My judgment is that this round of decline is not just a problem within the crypto space. Gold has recently been under clear pressure, the US stock market has also experienced adjustments, and global risk assets are all under stress. When the whole nest is in trouble, no egg can remain intact. When overall market risk appetite declines, it's not easy for the crypto market to stay unaffected.
🎯 If BTC rebounds to around 78,500, I will focus on observing whether there are signs of stagnation, volume resistance, or a pullback after a spike, then consider setting up short positions. Without confirmed signals, do not blindly chase shorts; if the price effectively holds above key resistance levels, also adjust the strategy in time.
⚠️ The current bearish target still focuses on 72,000, but the target does not mean it will definitely be reached. The most important thing in trading is not to guess right every time, but to control position size, set stop losses, avoid holding losing positions, and not stubbornly resist.
Brothers, do you think BTC will first rebound to 78,500 today, or will it continue directly toward 72,000? #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $AKE dropped 30%, I switched back to the group chat, I almost want to slap my own thigh blue!
【Hardcore review of this "missed the meat grinder" wave】:
Looking at the screenshots in the group, at 00:06 AM, big brother @熠光 openly said: "ake can still be shorted, you go with a small position to take a taste." What did I reply at that time? "Dare not, too thrilling... I want to hold it, it will rise tomorrow, otherwise I can't sleep."
Now look, with AKE's chart today, I can't sleep, and I'm even scrambling for rooftop space!
Look at this 1-hour chart, plunging from 0.03209 all the way down to 0.00585, today it crashed another -30.97%! All moving averages are in a waterfall-like bearish alignment, bottomless. Looking at the data in chart 2, my scalp tingles: the funding rate has already dropped to an extreme negative value of -0.443%, yet the long position ratio is still as high as 73.69%! Retail investors are crazily catching falling knives halfway down the mountain, and the manipulators seeing this full screen of longs, how could they stop without slaughtering you?
Macro logic: In a weak market with tight liquidity, new coins are just ATMs for manipulators, there is simply no bottom.
My advice: Use the most cautious instinct to miss the fattest crash. Since it has already fallen this far, don't bet on any "oversold rebound" bottom fishing now; going long here is just delivering takeout to the manipulators. If you haven't entered short positions, just watch the show honestly, wait for the rebound near the moving averages before shorting on the right side.BTC, ETH, ZEC Liquidation Pain Points｜The Long-Short Double Kill Range Is Already Set 📊
After a wave of rally, it quickly weakened and pulled back. The core reason is that the price touched the upper short pain point range, where short selling pressure is concentrated and released.
Several coins surged and hit the dense short positions, bulls lacked strength to support, and the market directly turned down.
📊 24h Liquidation Pain Points:
$BTC Current price 78613
Short pain point 78904 (+0.37%), Long pain point 77242 (-1.78%)
The upper short pain point is very close; a slight pull can trigger the liquidation zone; the lower long pain point has more space. BTC can easily spike down to shake out shorts before turning down to sweep longs.
$ETH Current price 2308
Short pain point 2319 (+0.50%), Long pain point 2268 (-1.73%)
Close to BTC’s rhythm, upper resistance is just a step away, limited upper space, mainly oscillating and tugging.
$ZEC Current price 1280
Short pain point 1301 (+1.57%), Long pain point 1206 (-6.17%)
Focus on ZEC! The upper short pain point is not far; moving up can trigger short liquidation; the lower long pain point has ample space. Once broken, many longs below are waiting to be harvested. Approaching NU7 upgrade, elasticity far exceeds mainstream.
In comparison: BTC and ETH have close upper short pressure, limited upward space, oscillation and repetition are the main theme.
ZEC still has a small upper short sweep space, but the "slaughterhouse" space for longs below is larger, intensifying the long-short battle.AI, the toughest target in this round, is starting to soften. OpenAI has slashed its current round financing target by $10 billion at once, with its valuation adjusted down to 1.25 trillion. Note, this is the primary market, the most sought-after card, discounting itself.
Many people still treat the recent drop as a correction, thinking to buy in after a deep fall. I've always said this is deleveraging, not a correction. The evidence is here: it's not a secondary market sentiment crash, but even the pricing on the financing side is retracting. The demand is real; AI inference calls have increased a thousandfold in a year, but demand never truly equals reasonable pricing.
Bubbles never burst starting from the worst assets; they begin to loosen from the most expensive and most believed ones. As a risk asset shadow, $BTC shouldn't be expected to remain unaffected at times like this. The small position I hold is waiting for the right spot, not bottom fishing. Seeing 81% really got me excited for a moment, thinking Solana's total network hashrate was finally going to be cut by eighty percent.
But reading further, the 81% is what p-ATA saved for itself, which only leaves 10%-11% for the entire network. That's almost eight times less.
Alright, so ATA really has such little presence in the whole chain. Yet every newcomer entering SOL has to set this up first; the most inconspicuous part actually has the most profit. And the proposal was just merged, still under review, and the program hasn't been deployed. Let's not take this as a bullish sign just yet.Apple will release its earnings report after the U.S. market closes on November 2nd. This report is somewhat different from previous ones, with several key variables intertwined, so expectations and reality need to be carefully separated and analyzed. The current market consensus expects revenue around $113.3 billion and EPS about $1.98. The first core contradiction is the modeling distortion caused by the staggered launch of the iPhone. Bank of America has already warned that the launch schedulThe Financial Truth Behind the Surge in $SPCX AI Revenue
The most important numbers to study about SPCX are not just the revenue growth of the AI business, but the profit structure behind that revenue.
According to data cited from the third quarter of 2026 in the previous analysis, AI-related business revenue reached about $7.56 billion, but the operating profit margin was only about 5.7%.
What does this mean?
A large revenue scale does not necessarily mean equally substantial final profits.
What deserves more attention is that AI data centers need to continuously purchase or lease GPUs, build facilities, ensure power supply, and also bear equipment depreciation and financing costs.
If capital investment grows alongside revenue, investors ultimately need to answer one question:
How much long-term cash flow can these expensive computing devices actually generate?
I believe the market should truly focus on three indicators going forward:
First, whether AI revenue can continue to grow.
Second, whether the operating profit margin of the AI business can improve.
Third, whether free cash flow can gradually turn positive.
If all three indicators improve simultaneously, SPCX's investment logic will become increasingly solid.
Otherwise, no matter how astonishing the growth rate is, it may just be a superficial prosperity of capital-intensive expansion.
Remember this: revenue determines how big the story is, profit margin determines how good the story is, and cash flow determines how far the story can go.
#SPCX #FinancialReportAnalysis #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% Solana has merged another proposal, SIMD-0567. The eye-catching figure is 81%, but what's really interesting is the 10%-11% next to it.
The 81% refers to the average reduction in compute unit consumption of the new p-ATA program compared to the existing program. The 10%-11% is the proportion of savings across the entire network due to this replacement. The difference of seven to eight times between the two numbers indicates that ATA-type operations account for less than 15% of Solana's total network CU.
Mechanically, p-ATA is rewritten based on Pinocchio and maintains instruction interface compatibility. Since the interface remains unchanged, wallets, DEXs, and aggregators don't need to modify their code; the upgrade is transparent to upper layers. Compute units are Solana's block budget; saving CU means more transactions can fit in the same block, or the same batch of transactions is less likely to fail due to insufficient budget.
However, the proposal has only reached merging and is still under review; merging does not mean the program has been deployed. So this does not constitute a trading reason to price in $SOL's benefits prematurely; the timing is a bit early. Its real meaning is that Solana is still meticulously cutting costs operation by operation. These kinds of efforts lack stories and don't make headlines, but this is how the lifeline of high concurrency is sustained.
One last point: why optimize ATA instead of a hotter sector? Because it is a necessary step for every new user entering the network, the most inconspicuous pipeline on the entire chain. Saving 81% in the most inconspicuous place, multiplied by the network's volume, only yields that 10%.The $USDT decrease of $3 billion in one week is the detail I care about most in this news. I usually first consider it in terms of the opportunity cost of dollar funds: whether money is willing to stay on-chain also involves trade-offs between interest rates and risk preferences. Data from DefiLlama simultaneously shows that the total supply of dollar stablecoins has declined both daily and weekly, and USDC has also decreased weekly.
My judgment is that this is somewhat bearish for markets relying on new dollar inflows, but it is not enough to prove that the market is undergoing a full-scale withdrawal. The circulating supply of stablecoins represents the scale of the capital vehicle, not orders ready to take positions at any moment; this contraction cannot be attributed solely to a single macro factor based on numbers alone.
My speculation is that if dollar interest rates remain attractive but on-chain opportunities are insufficient, the willingness to hold stablecoins may decline, and new risk positions will be more cautious; if macro financing conditions loosen, then the same contraction may not constrain the market as long. The key is why the funds are leaving, not just how much.
Therefore, I tend to treat this news as a warning about the willingness of dollar funds, not as a judgment on price direction. Rather than immediately labeling the market, I prefer to wait to see if macro conditions and stablecoin supply mutually confirm each other. Facing this contraction, what are people most concerned about now: dollar interest rates, dollar strength, or overall risk appetite? ETH rose about 8% from noon yesterday to noon today. The long-short ratio of OKEx ETH perpetual contracts actually dropped from 2.35 to 1.96, which hasn't been this low in the past week on an hourly basis.
The contracts haven't been idle either; open interest has increased by nearly 20,000 contracts in just over a day, from 651,000 to 671,000.
At first, I thought the price rise was driven by more longs entering. But it doesn't match up—the higher the price goes, the more accounts open shorts. The crowd is actually positioning against the price rise. The funding fee settlement this morning only slightly favored longs, so shorts basically hold without cost, and no one is in a hurry to exit.
If I had said yesterday that the ratio would be back above 2.6 by 11 AM today, I would have been wrong. Instead, it stayed at 1.96.
Don't just look at the long-short ratio alone; compare it with the price. When the price rises but the ratio falls, it means a group is opening shorts against the trend. If you're on that side, at least you know you're crowded with many others. If by this time tomorrow the ratio returns above 2.35, it means this group dispersed overnight, and I'll change my view then. I thought of a gym joke: The coach said training legs helps you walk more steadily, and I said if you run with fifteen weight plates tied on, wouldn't you be as steady as a high-speed train? After laughing, I realized that adding weight and increasing odds are really not the same thing 😂
Core Trader 14 is going long $ETH this time with 15x leverage, holding 111 coins, with a notional value of about $254,500. My judgment is: this is a long position very picky about the price path, and it can't be directly translated as a "strong bullish signal."
Roughly calculating with 15x leverage, if the price moves 1% against the position, the loss relative to the initial margin is about 15%, not counting fees and margin adjustments; so even if the final direction is correct, interim drawdowns could disrupt the plan. The material doesn't provide stop-loss or other positions, so judging by the amount alone, it's impossible to tell if this is an independent bet or part of a portfolio. I'll keep watching how the position is managed—don't treat the number of weight plates as a health check report.$PLTR I believe Palantir's earnings report after the market closes on Monday will be the first catalyst for this rebound. The company's own guidance already indicates that growth is still accelerating.
Palantir's revenue guidance for Q3 is $2.16 billion, which at the midpoint is 83% higher than last year's $1.181 billion for the same period; Q2 revenue was $1.935 billion, a 93% year-over-year increase. More importantly, the profit: the adjusted operating profit guidance is between $1.292 billion and $1.296 billion, meaning that for every $100 of revenue, nearly $60 turns into operating profit. The market consensus for earnings per share is $0.33, compared to $0.18 in the same period last year. $PLTR
Regarding the stock price, $PLTR fell 6.3% on 10/30, closing at $184.11, about 12% below the 52-week high of $209.05. The entire month of October saw only a 1.6% decline. Compared to the broader market's drop in October, PLTR was passively dragged down by the market; the company's fundamentals themselves have no risk factors. However, it is important to note that the market is no longer focusing on earnings expectations but is instead paying more attention to next quarter's guidance. If the Q4 guidance falls short of market expectations, it will be necessary to watch whether this is due to a slowdown in government and enterprise orders.$TRUMP
TRUMP rose 7.8% in the past 24 hours, with contract trading volume of $178 million.
Sounds lively. But its open interest is only 17.54 million. Trading $178 million on an open interest of 17.5 million means a tenfold turnover. This structure isn’t about someone building a position; it’s the same batch of money going back and forth, making a run and then stopping.
You can also see it on the chart: it dropped right after touching 1.777, now at 1.713, more than three points below the high. The funding rate is still neutral, not even building up a premium for longs.
The last time I chased this kind of high-turnover meme was entering on the second candlestick after a surge, and I got cut halfway up the mountain. This time it looks like no movement.
Meme money comes fast and leaves even faster. If I were to participate, I’d rather wait for the 1.7 level to be confirmed several times.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $SOL
This morning, one address closed out its short position on SOL, making a paper profit of $20.92 million.
What's interesting is the timing. Last week, the SOL spot ETF saw a net outflow of $71.47 million, a historical high. Normally, such a figure would signal a sell-off, but SOL is now at 95.4, down only 0.16% in 24 hours, with a low touching just 93.
I have a simple rule for trading: when the direction of money flow and price movement don't align, trust the price first. ETFs are withdrawing, shorts are fleeing, but the price hasn't collapsed, which means someone is absorbing the selling. I don't know who is absorbing, but with $20.92 million on the table, the shorts have already voted with real money.
My account has been empty these past two days; I haven't followed the move. If I were to follow, I'd wait for it to hold the low at 93 first.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $SOL $SOL This afro and big brother $BTC and second brother $ETH are basically cut from the same mold, all stubbornly holding at resistance levels.
【Hardcore review of this "bull trap"】：
Looking at the 1-hour chart, SOL dropped from 103.83 all the way down to 92.26. Although it was forcibly pulled up to 95.54 now, the MA60 overhead (95.35) is pressing down like a steel plate. MACD has a golden cross below zero, but the red bars clearly lack volume. The overhead trapped positions are extremely heavy, bearing great pressure.
Unique insight here: Looking at the data in chart 3, I get chills. The proportion of long accounts has actually surged to 76.71%! The long-short ratio is 3.29! Under negative funding rates, retail investors are crazily going long. The whale seeing this screen full of long orders definitely won’t act as a good Samaritan to push prices up; a bearish candle could come down anytime to shake out positions.
Macro logic: Tightening liquidity in the big environment, BTC leading the consolidation, and insufficient funds in the market to push SOL through multiple resistances.
My advice: Don’t be fooled by the 15-minute rebound. The overhead pressure is too heavy + retail investors are extremely crowded. Chasing longs here is basically delivering takeout. Try light short positions near resistance (around 96), or just stay flat and watch. Wait until this batch of stubborn bulls gets washed out before making moves.My first reaction to this was: don't directly translate "net outflow" as bearish. SoSoValue data shows that from October 26 to 30 Eastern Time, the HYPE spot ETF had a net outflow of $595,000, but the historical cumulative net inflow is still $303 million.
If I were to write this as a strategy, I would set an observation rule: if there is a weekly net outflow and the fund direction across different products tends to be consistent, then increase vigilance for weakening $HYPE liquidity; otherwise, just note it as divergence and do not directly conclude a trend. 🤖
This time, I tend to see it as a weak signal, but not a full retreat yet: THYP had a net outflow of $913,400, while BHYP had a net inflow of $595,900. The aggregate number is negative, but the products are not moving in the same direction. Looking only at the headline can easily lead to interpreting partial redemptions as a disappearance of overall demand.
The advantage of this rule is that it forces me to look at both total volume and distribution, reducing the chance of being misled by a single negative sign. The flaw is obvious: weekly data can mask changes during the period, and cumulative net inflow is only historical and cannot be used to prove subsequent support. If outflows continue and cover more products, I will increase the weight of this signal; this is my reasoning.
As a quant newbie, I'm still struggling with the filtering conditions: do you value the persistence of continuous net outflows more, or whether different products are flowing out synchronously? If you were to write this rule yourself, how would you set it?