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Trump has recently repeatedly declared: "I'm back, I want to make America great again, and I want Bitcoin to be mined/held in the US." The market immediately reacted: $BTC pulled back from the lower bound of the consolidation range in the short term, with volatility rising.
But note two points:
1. News is an emotional catalyst, not the trend itself.
Trump/election narratives tend to create "expectation trading": dumping before bad news lands → positive speeches/polls → short-term surge → real liquidity doesn't follow, so it falls back.
2. Currently, BTC looks more like high-level event-driven oscillation, unlike the major cycle bottoms in 2014/2018/2022.
The previous three times were bottoms after deep bear market drops; now if $BTC is still oscillating between tens of thousands to a hundred thousand, structurally it is closer to:
Macro narratives + ETF capital flows + options Gamma/Delta hedging jointly pricing, rather than simply "bottoming 13 days after the election."
Continuing the key signals I mentioned before:
· If the weekly chart still holds the previous low/key moving average support, and RSI does not make a new low, it indicates the bottom is not broken yet;
· If volume breaks below the previous low and stablecoin inflows stagnate, then the "election narrative" might just be a bull trap;
· If after Trump's speech only futures rally and spot does not follow, beware of a false breakout.
This time may not repeat the historical "bottoming at 71/39/13 days," because the market phase is completely different.
What matters now is: who is buying, how long they buy, and whether they can absorb selling pressure.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ What I noticed is that BTC's quote this time has slightly dropped below $76,000: according to PANews citing OKX market data, it is currently quoted at $75,995.10, down 2.19% intraday. This is somewhat interesting, but losing the round number support does not mean opportunities for small-cap coins have arrived. 👀
I tend to see this as a pressure signal on small-cap sentiment rather than a bottom-fishing signal. If BTC weakens and suppresses risk appetite, then high-volatility assets may face greater selling pressure; however, this news lacks data on small-cap trading and capital flows, so it cannot directly imply a broad market downturn. Volatility can amplify rebound potential but also magnify the cost of misjudgment.
Next, I will observe the relative strength of various sectors against BTC and whether rebounds are accompanied by trading volume. Rather than fixating on guessing the bottom at round numbers, I want to distinguish which movements are merely following sentiment swings and which truly have support.Looking at several news items together tonight is more honest than any valuation model. Meta is restarting bond issuance, planning to raise at least $20 billion more in the US and European markets; Deutsche Bank says SpaceX's AI computing power will reach 2.7GW by the end of the year. On one side, giants are borrowing money to pile up computing power, an unstoppable arms race.
But on the other side: even the most aggressive companies like ByteDance are starting to widely restrict employees from using Claude and Codex at their own expense, cutting even this AI spending.
The hand burning money is reaching further and further, while the hand doing the math is quietly pulling back. What’s really going to collapse this round is never the demand for AI, but the financing chain and valuation tension. The few short positions I hold are betting on this tension snapping. Once the string breaks, $BTC is on the same risk sheet—no one can escape.$PUMP scolds Pump dog whales every day for not giving airdrops, but when looking at the data, they quietly spent nearly 500 million USD on buybacks, burning 30% of the circulating supply.
Everyone on Twitter is spitting, and the shorts on the market are squeezed like a crowded bus.
These cockroaches, the more viciously they are scolded, the hotter the hype gets. They stubbornly created strong buying pressure in this 0.0039 pit, reclaiming the 4-hour chart directly. Once sentiment turns, those who open shorts at a loss with interest will be burned as firewood by the bulls.
#PUMP
$PUMP
👇I've never quite understood: when the election results come out, everyone's social feed is flooded, but the K-line chart doesn't move at all.
Such a big event should cause some reaction, right? But on Polymarket, "Democrats sweep" has been stuck at 99.6% for a while, with $18.23 million in trading volume, meaning everyone had the answer figured out half a month ago.
When the moment of revelation finally arrives, there's actually nothing to watch. I've been watching $BTC for a while, and the most exciting thing is the headlines, not the market.
Trump said he accepts the results and is willing to cooperate, which is important, but no one is really waiting for that. The market stopped caring about who wins long ago; it only cares about who runs first after the win.$BTC $BTC has broken the midterm election cycle pattern, but the real test is whether buyers can hold the rebound
Before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, Bitcoin's position is completely different from the previous three election cycles. BTC has not traded below the long-term trendline but has changed hands around $76,990, about 5.2% above its 200-day simple moving average of $73,169.
This difference is worth noting.
On the day of the 2014 midterm elections, Bitcoin traded about 35% below its 200-day moving average. In 2018, the gap was about 9%; and in 2022, about 22%.
This time, the market has a stronger technical foundation entering the election.
#U.S.midtermelectionsenteringthecountingstage,howwillCongresscontrolchange? $BTC
The Bitcoin four-year cycle perfectly coincides with the US midterm elections, which is quite a coincidence.
Every midterm election period marks the end of a bear market. This was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After the midterm elections, there is another sharp drop, the market bottoms out, and the bull market begins.
The difference is that each bottoming time has been occurring earlier. $BTC $BTC November has just started, and institutional sell-off actions are still ongoing. According to Farside data, BTC had a net outflow of $399 million on November 2nd alone, marking two consecutive days of outflows, with a total of $711 million outflow in the past five days; ETH is weaker, with a single-day outflow of $140 million, six consecutive days of outflows, and a total outflow of $482 million in the past five days, accumulating $1.692 billion outflow in the past 22 days.
Comparing horizontally with last month, BTC had a total outflow of $516 million throughout October, and already $399 million outflow at the start of November; ETH had a total outflow of $1.607 billion last month, and continues to be under pressure this month. Interestingly, although redemptions continue, the market has not yet broken down, and there is still support.
From a long-term perspective, since the launch of the BTC spot ETF, the cumulative net inflow remains at $56.65 billion, with AUM maintained at $80.9 billion; ETH cumulative net inflow is $12.177 billion, so the foundation remains. But in my view, this is just a process of orderly institutional deleveraging, not a signal to enter the market. The key now is not to rush to bottom-fish, but to patiently wait for the turning point of this continuous redemption wave; only when the capital outflow stops is it a safer observation point. #The US midterm elections have entered the vote-counting phase, how will control of Congress change? Woke up to the results: the Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate, wresting dominance from the Republicans. Trump's statement is even more crucial—he said he would accept the results and is willing to cooperate with the Democrats.
What's interesting about this is that it was almost the least suspenseful election in history. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Democrats controlling both chambers" stalled at 99.6%, with about $18.23 million in trading volume on that option. Before the votes were even counted, the money had already decided the answer.
So why keep watching? Because markets never trade the outcome, they trade uncertainty. When an event shifts from "possible" to "certain," pricing ends, and what follows is a race to figure out what will happen next now that the outcome is known.
Institutions have given a direction: funds are moving from stocks to bonds, showing a clear risk-off sentiment. Australia's three-year government bond yield has dropped 15 basis points since early this week. Meanwhile, Democratic control of Congress will constrain Trump's growth agenda in AI and resource sectors.
For assets like $BTC, the logic is subtle. On one hand, political uncertainty fades, so risk appetite should recover; on the other, policy advancement faces greater resistance, forcing a recalculation of positions that had bet on regulatory easing.
So don't rush to ask whether prices will rise or fall. What's more worth pondering is: when the result was priced in at 99.6% before the vote, is the market now betting on the outcome itself, or on how others will interpret the outcome?The U.S. midterm elections vote is tomorrow, what should the crypto community watch?🤔
On November 3rd Eastern Time, the U.S. will hold midterm elections, with vote counting starting at 8 AM Beijing Time on November 4th. This election is not for the president, but for Congress: all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for re-election, and 35 seats in the Senate are contested.Will $SNDK continue to decline? Divergence intensifies in the storage sector
Although Sandisk's earnings report shows impressive revenue and profit figures, and it holds large long-term customer agreements, with the long-term logic of NAND demand driven by AI inference established, the stock price still experienced a "good news priced in" pullback after the earnings release, and there is still a possibility of further short-term decline.
The market's core concern is not current profitability but expectations of the cycle peak. The market worries that the phase of NAND price increases and rapid gross margin expansion is nearing its end, with subsequent profit growth slowing down and valuations continuing to be compressed; coupled with high U.S. Treasury yields, high-valuation growth sectors are generally under pressure, and the semiconductor sector's overall sentiment is weak, which can easily lead to further stock adjustments.
The positive factors supporting the stock price are also clear: AI inference and KV caching continue to drive demand for data center flash memory, long-term agreements lock in orders for years, the tight supply pattern is expected to continue, and HBF high-bandwidth flash opens new possibilities, which can limit the depth of any decline.
Whether the decline will stop depends on three key points: NAND spot prices, overall sentiment in the storage sector, and U.S. Treasury yields. If sector sentiment recovers and storage prices remain strong, a stabilization and rebound may occur; otherwise, under liquidity pressure, the weakness and volatility may continue.The more turbulent the market undercurrents, the easier it is to lose direction
ETH right now is like a spring being pressed down tightly at the bottom
On the surface, it looks calm, but underneath the undercurrents have already started to stir
Look at this 4-hour chart, after the deep dip to 2174 a few days ago, the price has slowly climbed back to 2258.
In the past few days, it has been oscillating around 2260, many find it boring, but I tell you, this is called "trading time for space"
Although it is capped by EMA30 and EMA60 above, notice the short moving averages at the bottom have quietly started to turn upward
This is a typical accumulation signal; the longer it consolidates, the stronger the rebound will be.
Look at my long position, entered at 2215.71, now holding steady with +37.12% profit
Why am I so calm?
Open your eyes and look at my liquidation price at 1840!
There’s a moat of over 400 dollars in between, this thickness means even if the main force goes crazy and tries to spike the price, they simply can’t touch my bottom line.
With this confidence, I can comfortably sit in the audience and watch how the main force shakes out those impatient chips.
In terms of operation, we must not get carried away.
At the current 2258 level, chasing in directly risks getting caught in spikes up and down.
The smart move is to be patient; as long as it dares to pull back on low volume to around 2250 or even 2230, that’s a god-given opportunity to add to positions.
The first target above is to see if it can break and hold 2300 with volume.
Trading is not about who acts fastest, but who has the farthest vision and the steadiest seat.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Whales liquidate positions in protest, a whale loses $5.84 million in four days, yet ZEC bounces back to $1,200?
ZEC has surged about 2,400% this year, with a market cap around $20 billion, firmly in the top ten. But the community is in a civil war: the funding committee ZCG, which manages the money, automatically takes 8% of block rewards for five people, holding about 91,500 ZEC worth approximately $124 million in the pool, spending without token holder votes.
On October 31, major holder big z announced liquidation and exit, saying the money should be spent on cryptography; co-founder Sean Bowe called for financial restructuring, Naval supported capping funding at $50 million, and Tyler Winklevoss called it "taxation without representation." ZCG proposed to surrender and forgo a total of about $124 million in funding, but no formal proposal has been made yet.
According to Ember monitoring, a leveraged whale spent 31.78 million USDT over four days to buy 25,002 ZEC, then opened a long at a high on Hyperliquid, but was stopped out and fully closed on November 3, losing about $5.84 million in total over four days; on that day, ZEC briefly dropped 11% to $1,135.
But today it has rebounded to around $1,200, up about 7% in 24 hours — institutions are still buying, DCG previously bought $100 million of Grayscale ZEC Trust. Neither the internal conflict nor the liquidation suppressed the price; the NU7 upgrade on November 6 and the ZCG proposal are the next chapters.
$ZEC $BTC has broken the midterm election cycle pattern, but the real test is whether buyers can hold the rebound
Ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, Bitcoin's position is markedly different from the previous three election cycles. BTC has not traded below the long-term trendline but has changed hands around $76,990, approximately 5.2% above its 200-day simple moving average of $73,169.
This difference is worth noting.
On the day of the 2014 midterm elections, Bitcoin traded about 35% below its 200-day moving average. In 2018, the gap was about 9%; and in 2022, about 22%.
This time, the market enters the election with a stronger technical foundation.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $ONDO This type of narrative-driven coin recently seems more like it's being tested by capital. Some focus on its "real asset" story, believing that as long as the market is willing to embrace new logic, there will always be people willing to follow; others think that once the overall sentiment weakens, these kinds of tokens are the easiest to be tested first.
I've seen too many people make the same mistake with these coins: rushing in at the news without considering whether the market is still cooperating. In the end, they don't lose to the news but to the sentiment. 24h -0.39%, 7d -8.92%, it's not really appropriate to call this strong; it looks more like it's waiting to see if it can gather momentum again.
Wait and watch first, don't mistake "cheap" for "safe". #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Ethereum rebounds leaving a step, WLD falls back below 0.375
$ETH 2283.01, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours, the fallback point has moved up, the rebound has layers ♦️
Earlier it fell back near 2250, the subsequent pullback mostly held around 2264, the quote still at 2283.01, the rebound not only surged but the pullback area also rose.
2309 was not held, but the lower area was not fully given up. I am a bit more optimistic about the phase recovery because the trading position after the drop has been raised, and the layering is worth recognizing.
$RE 0.304, down 7.3% in the past 24 hours, after lifting from the low point, the fallback point is still relatively low 🧩
From the low of 0.2967, the quote is about 2.5% higher, this pullback has some distance; looking at the recent 24-hour high-low range, it is still only around the lower 20% position.
The original area near 0.31 has not been reclaimed, short-term lift and overall low coexist. Partial credit given, the overall recovery remains restrained, not allowing a rebound percentage to overshadow the actual staying area's deficiency.
$WLD 0.3714, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours, the pullback deepens again, 0.375 could not be held 🌍
After reaching 0.3792, the quote retreated to 0.3714, the raised area near 0.375 was given up again, the pullback did not stabilize a higher position.
In the past full hour, it fell 1.1%, trading volume was 35.9% higher than the previous hour. I am cautious nearby, trading is still expanding while giving back height, counting this downward move first, the recovery is not smooth.Everything is a kind of game; everyone just needs to manage their stop-loss well. Today's decline is due to the immediate news impact of the Democratic Party winning the US midterm elections. Technically, it is supposed to go down; the news just accelerated the drop. Now, on the 30-minute chart, it can't even break the moving average, and the RSI has also reached the middle without divergence. Additionally, the funding rate is very high, so it is still expected to decline later. Therefore, I just made a light short position at 77000. If it continues to rise, I have backup plans.First, to pour some cold water, when I see large long positions opened, my first reaction is not that someone is leading the way, but rather who is actually buying to support that judgment. I lean bearish, but I wouldn't take a single long position as a reason to do a contrarian short.
Core Trader 43 opened a long BTC position this time with 3x leverage, nominal position about $276,700, reference price $76,256. I'm not in a hurry to be bullish: opening a position only proves willingness to take risk, it doesn't prove there is follow-up buying; estimating by position size, if the price drops 5%, the unrealized loss is about $13,800, and low leverage doesn't mean the loss is light. If the buying doesn't keep up, the most uncomfortable are those chasing longs who take wallet movements as confirmation signals.
Of course, he might be right. If the subsequent price can hold above the reference price, and after a pullback there is still support, I will retract my bearish view; if it continues to rise, those who stubbornly short against the trend will also suffer. I will next watch whether the price can hold steady, and won't use wallet reputation to make my judgment.$ENA
Ethena represents an interesting experiment in synthetic dollar infrastructure, but its economic model deserves careful examination. Maintaining stability, managing collateral exposure, and sustaining demand during difficult market conditions are essential challenges. Attractive yields can bring attention, yet they cannot independently establish long-term resilience. Risk management is arguably more important than expansion for this ecosystem.The index looks okay, but opening an account is another story.
The A-share half-day turnover was 925.1 billion, shrinking by 67.5 billion compared to yesterday, with over 3,700 stocks falling. Physical AI company Suochen Technology hit the 20% daily limit up, AI comic drama companies Dasheng Culture, Zhejiang Film Industry, and Longban Media all hit three consecutive daily limit ups, small metal company Yunnan Germanium also hit the limit up, and semiconductor equipment company Torrance rose over 15%. Hotspots keep emerging one after another, but the rotation is faster than a fan, and those chasing are basically standing still.
US chip stocks led the counterattack, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 2.64%, SanDisk, Broadcom, and AMD all up over 3%, Nvidia up 2.26%, and Microsoft up 2.70%. However, the Dow Jones fell 0.38%, Apple dropped nearly 2 points, Tesla fell 1.32%, and the seven giants are no longer moving in unison. Whether the index is up or down is increasingly unrelated to the stocks held.
$BTC touched a new low again after 2 PM, Binance spot hit 76388, $ETH is holding around 2247. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 338 million USD, with long positions accounting for 265 million, and BTC alone liquidated 106 million. The price hasn't crashed much; those chasing longs were cleared in one round first. Contract positions keep adding while falling, making it really hard for this structure to produce a decent rebound.
The index is holding, money is shrinking, and the cost of chasing highs is always greater than holding steady. I will first cover the unrealized profit, then ask what this position is relying on to make money. Earning a lot does not equal a high expected value, especially when leverage amplifies the results; the odds look tempting, but the risks may not be fully visible.
According to monitoring by Ai Auntie, a trader holds about 1,376 $BTC 25x short positions, with a position value of approximately $105 million and unrealized profits of $4.89 million. My judgment is that the value of this news for spectators is greater than its value as a directional signal: unrealized profit is just a snapshot and cannot prove that the strategy is repeatable; without seeing the full position, and without ruling out that this is a hedge, one cannot clearly increase the probability judgment of continued decline based on this.
According to my reasoning, if the exit conditions are clear and the loss from rebounds is controllable, then such short positions have a basis for discussing expected value; if it is just betting on a decline and relying on holding the position to preserve unrealized profits, then it is not worth admiring. To judge whether this short position is worth it, do you value the probability of decline more, or the odds after deducting rebound risk?You can't help but believe it! The U.S. stock market tends to decline before the midterm elections, so what happens after the midterm elections? ┈➤ The stock market is very likely to fall before the midterm elections Looking at the past 30 years of history, including 8 midterm elections this year, only before the 2014 midterm elections did the U.S. stock market not decline, but the Nasdaq 100 still had a sharp dip in October. You can see that although the overall trend of the U.S. stock market iThe long-short ratio of OKEx ETH perpetual contracts surged from the three-day low to the three-day high over the past eight hours this morning.
At 3 AM it was still 1.80, and by 11 AM it reached 2.55. The price only dropped a bit over one point during the same period, and the open interest actually decreased by about 12,000 contracts.
At first, I thought the price drop triggered a big bottom-fishing move. But that doesn't add up—if more money was bottom-fishing, open interest should have increased, but it didn't. The sudden surge in the number of participants without an increase in the total volume looks more like a bunch of small orders stepping in on the downside, while some shorts took profits and exited.
The big players didn’t follow either. The long-short ratio for the top 5% of accounts hit 0.92 at 2 AM, then dropped back to 0.87 by 11 AM. Yesterday I said if it went back above 0.92 at this time today, I’d acknowledge it, but it didn’t, so I’m holding my position for now.
So when the number of participants suddenly spikes, don’t immediately interpret it as big money entering the market. First check if open interest is following. If by 11 AM tomorrow ETH open interest increases by more than 30,000 contracts compared to today, and the participant ratio stays above 2.5, then real money is coming in, and I’ll admit I underestimated it.$BTC just started November, and institutional sell-offs are still ongoing. According to Farside data, BTC saw a net outflow of $399 million on November 2 alone, marking two consecutive days of outflows and a total of $711 million over the past five days; ETH performed even weaker, with a single-day outflow of $140 million, six consecutive days of outflows, and a total of $482 million over the past five days, accumulating $1.692 billion over the past 22 days.
Comparing horizontally with last month, BTC had a total outflow of $516 million throughout October, and already $399 million outflow at the start of November; ETH had a total outflow of $1.607 billion last month and continues to face pressure at the start of this month. Interestingly, despite continuous redemptions, the market has not yet broken down, and there is still underlying support.
From a long-term perspective, since the launch of the BTC spot ETF, cumulative net inflows remain at $56.65 billion, with AUM maintained at $80.9 billion; ETH cumulative net inflows stand at $12.177 billion, so the fundamentals remain intact. However, in my view, this is just an orderly institutional reduction process, not a signal to enter the market. The key now is not to rush to bottom-fish but to patiently wait for the turning point of this sustained redemption wave. Only when the capital outflow stops will it be a safer observation point. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Yesterday I said that Er Ge had to short first before pulling it up, but I sold a bit too quickly and missed some profit. This market is thoroughly analyzed, hahaha. $BTC ETH's rally before the ticket issuance was all given back overnight.
Now BTC has dropped back below 76,000. Some Korean media say the market is worried that if the Democrats take both houses, crypto legislation will be delayed. I think the election is just one factor; money was already flowing out. Over 1 billion flowed out from BTC spot ETF in two trading days.
Even harsher, on the corporate side, $MSTR last week spent three times more on repurchasing its own preferred shares than on buying BTC. The company best at buying coins is prioritizing its own stock price first. Another company raised funds with preferred shares at a 15% annual interest rate to buy coins. With a 15% cost of capital, how much does the coin price have to rise to make it worthwhile? Everyone can calculate that themselves.
By the way, let's look at other hot ones.
$AMD finally didn't fall according to the earnings report this time, rising 7% after hours.
HOT network went live and rose 20% in one day.
This only represents personal opinion #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 #AMDQ3DataCenterUp97% Top & Bottom Line Beats: Revenue came in at $13.377 billion (+45% YoY). Non-GAAP EPS grew 74% YoY to $2.09, beating the $1.95 consensus estimate.Currently, the ETH market is in a short-term pullback phase after the recent rally in this upward trend. The Bollinger Bands have gradually flattened from their previous upward stance, with short-term momentum still seeking support at the middle and lower bands; the MACD indicator has formed a death cross above the zero line, with bearish momentum bars continuing to expand. There is no clear signal of a halt or stabilization in the market yet. The main resistance above is concentrated around the#Báo financial report of Circle is about to be released, can the growth of stablecoins realize profits?
Apple and Palantir's financial reports exceeded expectations, but their stock prices both fell
🔎 Can the demand for AI chips help AMD maintain high growth? Can Circle's stablecoin segment realize profits? How is Sony's gaming and music business performance? $PEPE
Exploded by 338 million in 24 hours, with long positions at 265 million. Usually, meme coins just lie down on days like this, but PEPE doesn't. It moved from 0.0000047 to 0.0000049, +4.1%, just a breath away from the 24h high of 0.0000050272.
A few others nearby illustrate the issue. SHIB barely moved, +0.1%, still hanging below the broken trendline from August; DOGE is in the red, -0.57%. One sector, three directions.
Looking at the volume. PEPE perpetual positions are only 41 million USD, with 220 million traded in 24 hours. Small positions, large volume, fast turnover—this kind of structure means even a sharp rise isn't a signal; it can fall just as fast.
The fee rate is still positive, longs are paying. I don't chase this. The top of a meme coin isn't sold out, it's when no one is left to buy and it collapses on its own.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $ETH Wall Street is withdrawing funds every day without adding a single drop back in; the rebound trading volume is only one-seventh of the volume on the day of the dump. Tens of thousands of large hacker chips are still queued up above for laundering and cashing out. The main players are not doing charity work, so who would bear such heavy selling pressure to support the hackers? After breaking below 2200, there is basically no good support below.
#ETH
$ETH
👇$BTC
Someone in the group shared a screenshot, saying the largest short position on the entire network won big. 25x leverage, $163 million short, unrealized profit of 4.89 million. I acknowledge this account, but we need to see how it won.
The price was crushed down from 75,690. At 11 o'clock, that 1-hour candle showed 1.31 million contracts, the previous one only 590,000, crushed down to 75,690 and closed at 76,450. At 12 o'clock, volume dropped to 390,000, but the price actually touched 77,081. The shorts profited from that spike.
The chips here don't quite cooperate. The funding rate is still +0.01%, longs keep paying; open interest dropped from 2.6 billion in the morning to 2.526 billion. Not many shorts were closed, longs are also retreating. If they really won big, the funding rate should have turned negative.
Looking more basically at liquidations: in this hour, 150 million, mainly liquidating longs. Long leverage was cleared, price climbed back. Shorts won on that spike, not on the direction.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ The U.S. midterm elections have entered a critical moment! What’s next for the crypto market— a rebound or further decline?
Today, the world’s markets are focused on the United States.
The U.S. midterm election results are gradually being revealed. This election not only affects the future power structure of the U.S. Congress but may also influence the country’s economic policies, fiscal direction, and cryptocurrency regulatory environment over the next two years.
Preliminary results show the Democratic Party making gains in the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate remains uncertain.
Why is the crypto market so focused on this election?
Because the market’s real concern isn’t just which party wins more seats, but whether the U.S. attitude toward the crypto industry will change in the future.
The previously highly anticipated crypto regulatory legislation, the CLARITY Act, may also be affected by changes in the congressional power balance.
Looking at today’s crypto market:
BTC briefly fell below $77,000 before rebounding, but the market has not completely shaken off pressure.
ETH is fluctuating around $2,300, and major altcoins like SOL are also influenced by overall risk sentiment.
There are several key variables to watch in the current market:
1. U.S. election results: Changes in congressional power could alter the pace of crypto regulatory policy advancement.
2. Capital sentiment: Changes in U.S. tech stocks, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields may continue to affect crypto market risk appetite.
3. Market structure: Whether BTC can firmly hold key levels and whether spot buying continues to strengthen are important indicators of rebound quality.
4. Leverage risk: If the market experiences sharp volatility due to election results, traders chasing rallies or panicking could face liquidation again.
Personally, I’m more focused on how the market will digest the election results rather than guessing who wins or loses in advance.
If positive factors materialize and capital keeps flowing in, the market may see a recovery; if policy expectations fall short and macro risks continue to escalate, further declines cannot be ruled out.
One thing to remember:
What truly impacts the market is never just the news itself, but whether capital chooses to buy or sell after the news is released.
Tonight, don’t rush to take sides or bottom-fish.
Watch the election results, BTC volume and price changes, and whether spot capital truly returns.
Opportunities won’t disappear just because you enter a few minutes late, but an impulsive trade could cost you dearly.
What do you think? After this U.S. election, will BTC see a rebound or continue to seek support lower?
Share your thoughts in the comments below.👇
#BTC #ETH #cryptocurrency #USelection #BitcoinMarket"Bottom Grinding Phase, Don't Mistake a Rebound for a Reversal"
Mainstream coins fell again this morning. BTC is at $76,983, ETH dropped to $2,266, SOL returned to around $92, and OKB is at $107.14. The decline is not extreme, but there is hardly any decent rebound. This dull-knife style decline consumes patience more than a sharp drop.
The problem is not that the market is completely out of money, but that buyers are unwilling to keep attacking. Glassnode shows BTC spot still has support, but contract leverage pressure has not been fully released; combined with the US midterm elections, employment data, and macro policy expectations, funds are naturally cautious. No positive news does not necessarily mean sideways movement; if buyers continue to be absent, the price base may still slowly move down.
How much longer will the adjustment last? Instead of guessing the number of days, look at three signals: whether volume can expand, whether capital flow can turn positive, and whether market sentiment can recover synchronously. Before these three resonate together, small rebounds look more like repairs rather than reversals. Currently, it is more like exchanging time for space—chase fewer small bullish candles and wait more for confirmation.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $XRP 1 billion tokens unlocked and dumped openly, yet many are still waiting for it to drop below 1.25 to scoop up bargains.
But the market remains completely steady, with all the chips being forcefully absorbed by institutional large orders at 1.25.
The main force's action of firmly taking on the selling pressure can no longer be concealed.
At this level, the negative pressure can't create a dip; once this wave of selling pressure is fully digested, even a small spark on the market can send it shooting up directly.
#XRP
$XRP
👇On November 3, 2026, Tom Lee's most viral call on CNBC's "Squawk Box" was:
"I think we are at the bottom."
Translated into Chinese, it means:
"I believe we are already at the bottom."
Yesterday, he didn’t just call for "ETH to surge immediately" alone; instead, he linked AI stocks bottoming + Binance negative news not causing a drop = overall risk assets bottoming into one bullish statement, and also casually mentioned that BitMine is still hoarding ETH, close to the 5% limit. So the Chinese community sees it as "mindlessly calling the market again."
Indeed, Tom Lee is like the market’s "boy who cried wolf"—every time the market drops, he comes out saying "it’s the bottom, it’s the bottom," and when it rises, he says "it’s just the beginning." Looking back at his interviews over the past two years, he calls the bottom more frequently than weather forecasts.
But honestly, the most cunning thing about this guy is: no one remembers when he’s wrong, but when he’s right, his calls get wildly shared. BitMine itself is still holding ETH, so when he makes calls, it’s essentially boosting his own holdings, since the stock price of his company is directly linked to ETH’s price. #11.4 Market analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice
BTC previously surged to 78831 and faced resistance, forming a top. The 15-minute and 1-hour moving averages have all turned downward, establishing a bearish structure; in the morning session, there was a volume spike with a plunge that directly broke through the previous support at 76360, reaching a low of 75690.1. After the support was broken, short-term long positions triggered stop losses en masse, causing a chain reaction of selling pressure and amplifying the decline. Technically, bullish support completely failed, and the short-term trend weakened.
Looking at the 1-hour chart for ETH, it just rebounded from a bottom near 2172, and the current price is stuck at 2244. However, this is only a technical correction after a sharp drop; the moving average system still shows a bearish alignment, and the overall trend has not reversed!
Resistance at 2300 is a dense chip area from the previous decline; a rebound to this level will face strong selling pressure and is unlikely to break through in one go. Support at 2172 is the low point from a few days ago and the last defense line for bulls. Once broken, it will directly trigger a new round of accelerated bottom probing, so be cautious of risks!
BTC trading advice: short near 76500, take profit at 75800-75000
ETH trading advice: short near 2250, take profit at 2220-2180 $BTC $ETH The retail long-short ratio for SOL surged to 3.58, while for large holders it's only 1.53!
OKX perpetual 1-hour data (as of 12:00 Beijing time): BTC overall accounts about 2.65, elite traders about 1.69; ETH overall about 2.64, elite about 1.49; SOL is even more extreme, retail at 3.58 versus large holders around 1.53. The price is still hovering near 76,000, retail keeps piling longs, large holders are clearly holding back — if it drops further, the first to break will still be those crowded on the long side. Spot BTC around $76702 (12:20 Beijing time, Coinbase). Chart source OKX.
$BTC $ETH $SOLUnstaking does not equal selling: This batch of HYPE has only three possible paths
A post in Orbit said that HYPE made a big move today: suspected 15 wallets related to an institution unstaked about 2.55 million HYPE in the past two days, accounting for about 17.85% of their remaining staked amount, worth approximately 224 million USD at the time. The author judged: no need to be bearish yet.
Why no rush? Because unstaking does not equal selling, this batch of coins only has three paths ahead, each with completely different implications.
First, restake it. A few weeks ago, the same batch of addresses had similar operations, later regrouping and restaking. If repeated, this unstaking is just a reorganization, not an exit.
Second, transfer to exchanges. Being on an exchange only means available for sale; whether to sell or how much depends on subsequent transfers.
Third, actual selling. Only when on-chain selling occurs and price pressure appears can it be considered a bearish realization.
The post also gave a fundamental perspective: HYPE is about 86.63 USD, down 1.8% in 24 hours, but protocol revenue in the past 30 days is still about 65.11 million USD. Fundamentals have not deteriorated, short-term chip risk rises — this is the post's breakdown, not my conclusion.
Regarding the unstaking news, do you first look at where it went or the price?
(Personal record, not investment advice. Numbers and the three paths are all quoted from a post in Orbit's information stream tonight. No price points, no calls, no position cards. Contract risk is extremely high, leverage with caution.)
ETH is currently trading around $2,245 to $2,260, oscillating near the $2,250 mark, down about 1.9% in 24 hours. The depth ratio of the top five bid-ask levels is only 0.46, indicating a fragile structure. Technically, there is a wall of moving averages: 7-day SMA at 2,269, 20-day SMA at 2,352, 50-day SMA at 2,507, EMA12 at 2,304, and EMA26 at 2,374; each line represents supply that must be absorbed during any rebound. The 200-day SMA at 2,157 is the only long-term anchor below the price. The daily MACD lines are converging at -70.76 with the histogram near zero, indicating a pause in deterioration but no bullish crossover; RSI is at 32.31, close to the oversold line, and the Stochastic shows deep weakness, though oversold conditions can persist. The 4-hour MACD shows a bullish crossover below the zero line with expanding red bars, the only slightly positive signal, but any upward move faces overlapping resistance between 2,298 and 2,341. The most concerning news is that "staking lock-up" and "ETF withdrawals" are happening simultaneously. About 1.37 million ETH are queued for staking, while only 13,000 ETH are exiting, a ratio close to 100:1. The total staked amount has risen to 44.3 million ETH, accounting for 36% of supply, a historic high—but staking lock-up does not increase buying pressure, it only reduces selling pressure. ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive days, with $140 million withdrawn on November 2 alone, $138 million of which was from BlackRock. October saw over $1.2 billion in outflows, and ETF holdings cannot participate in staking, which is a structural reason for the capital flight.1. What is the midterm election? Why is it so important? The U.S. president serves a four-year term, with elections every four years. But the U.S. Congress (both the House and Senate) is partially re-elected in the middle — two years after the president takes office, which is the midterm election. This time (November 3, 2026), all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be up for election, along with a bunch of governors and local positions. Why does this matter to the crypto community? Because Congress decides two things: first, what the president can do in the last two years (finance, regulation, personnel); second, whether crypto industry bills can pass. No matter how strong the president is, if Congress doesn’t cooperate, no legislation can move forward. 2. What are the two parties’ attitudes toward crypto? Many people think "Republicans support crypto, Democrats oppose it," but it’s not that simple. Let me break it down for you: Republicans: Advocate for small government and less regulation. Theoretically, they are the most crypto-friendly, believing the market should develop freely without constant legislative restrictions. Among Republican lawmakers, there is a group of staunch crypto supporters pushing bills like the "CLARITY Act" to set rules for digital assets. Republicans have contributed a lot. But they also have issues — they tend to favor traditional finance and energy industries and may take a restrictive stance on energy consumption from mining. Democrats: Advocate for strong regulation and consumer protection. Democrats are not against crypto but fear crypto scams, money laundering, and investor exploitation, so they want stricter rules. For the crypto community, Democratic governance means regulation will be "clearer but tighter" — for example, explicitly whatThis Chart Deserves Attention
$YFI LONG setup is forming. Entry: 2002.00 | TP1: 2020.51 | TP2: 2032.86 | SL: 1989.66. buyers are pushing price higher and buying momentum is still healthy.
#USMidtermsCongressWatch 🔴 $AVA /USDT · Bias: SHORT
The 1h price stack turned bearish, pushing AVA lower.
Entry: 0.2690797 – 0.2707203
TP1: 0.2536157 (-6.0%)
TP2: 0.2427596 (-10.1%)
TP3: 0.2264753 (-16.1%)
SL: 0.2916123 (+8.0%)
Why: The short-term trend is down because the 1h price sits below both the EMA50 and EMA200.
Risk: Far below its average, bounce likely (−4.3 ATR from 1h EMA50)
Plan: close 50% at TP1, 25% at TP2, 25% at TP3, and move the stop to entry after TP1.
Do you see AVA reaching the first target soon? The 15-minute chart for ZEC/USDT demonstrates a short-term bullish recovery structure trading at $1,203.00 (-1.32%), holding above $ZEC local floor support at $1,159.00 following a bounce toward peak resistance at $ZEC $1,221.64.
Price action is testing dynamic moving average resistance with MA5 at $ZEC $1,189.87, while trading above MA10 at $1,187.81 and baseline MA20 at $1,198.64, accompanied by positive MACD momentum at 1.56.
#USMidtermsCongressWatch I emphasized yesterday morning that a ZEC rebound is an opportunity, so don't hesitate. Sure enough, the market first surged up to 1244, then plunged down sharply, hitting a low of 1158, a full 86-point range. Isn't that an easy target?
The strategy remains the same: short on the rebound, no hesitation. Wait for it to bounce near 1220, then enter a short position directly. The first target is 1120; if it breaks that, boldly aim down to 1020. Remember, don't fight the trend; going with the flow is the key.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH OKB is currently trading around $120 to $122. After falling from the early October high of $143.9, it has been consolidating in a narrow range of $123 to $126 for two weeks. It has now broken below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the $127 to $133 range having flipped from support to resistance. Technically, it is "oversold but the rebound lacks momentum." MACD and ADX are bearish, RSI is near the oversold zone but has not triggered a reversal; mid-term it still stands above the 200-day moving average. The X Layer ecosystem and the fixed supply of 21 million tokens provide some support. $123 is the current watershed; if lost, the next target is $119 to $120. To repair the structure upwards, volume must increase to reclaim the $127 to $133 resistance zone. The most noteworthy news is that "the capital relocation is real, but the story hasn't landed." The deeper crack lies in value capture. After a one-time burn of 65.25 million tokens in August 2025, the total OKB supply will be permanently locked at 21 million tokens, and the buyback and burn mechanism will be completely ended. The supply-side story is finished. The remaining narrative is all on X Layer: Q3 EVM daily transactions increased 262% quarter-on-quarter, DeFi TVL doubled to $173.4 million, and ecosystem application fee income rose 490% quarter-on-quarter. The daily close direction at $123 is more honest than any X Layer quarterly report. Holding this level means the range-bound consolidation can continue; a daily close below it means $119 to $120 is the next real test.The liquidation distribution of XAU/USDT perpetual contracts on Binance now shows a very typical asymmetric structure.
The short liquidation zone is between 3,975 and 3,985, about 0.75% away from the current price; the long liquidation zone is between 3,890 and 3,900, about 1.15% away from the current price. Both sides have liquidation triggers, but the one above is closer. This distance difference does not necessarily mean the price will go up; it only indicates one thing: if the price pushes upward, forced liquidations will occur earlier and more densely.
Why is this the case? The liquidation zones essentially represent the accumulation of leveraged positions. Shorts are crowded closer to the current price, indicating many recent short positions and rapid increases; longs are more spread out and lower, indicating a wider cost distribution for long positions. When most positions in the market lean to one side, the threshold for triggering the other side is lower.
However, liquidation zones are never predictive tools. They tell you where it will hurt, not whether the price will go there. Only two things need confirmation: whether liquidation volume suddenly expands when the price approaches, and whether the price can close beyond the breakout. Without either, the dense zone is just a bunch of numbers, and chasing it only provides liquidity for liquidation orders.
So the current approach is clear: the bias can be long, but do not chase at the current price. Wait for it to hit on its own; if it hits, volatility will provide the answer; if not, do nothing. For a product like $XAU, leverage is stacked denser than most think; being slow won’t lose money, but being fast might get wiped out.XRP is currently trading at about $1.25, slightly up in 24 hours, bucking the trend as BTC falls 1.32%, superficially showing resilience. However, the capital flow behind the scenes does not support this "resilience" label. Technically, all moving averages are bearish, and momentum is stalemated. The price is suppressed below the 7-day SMA at 1.26, 200-day SMA at 1.27, 20-day SMA at 1.30, and 50-day SMA at 1.39; each moving average acts as a ceiling, structurally defining a downtrend. The daily RSI is 37.31, approaching oversold but not quite there; the MACD fast and slow lines are completely merged at -0.0368, and the histogram is precisely zero, indicating bearish momentum is stalled but directionless. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the tightest in months; the last similar squeeze saw XRP surge 71% in three days, but the squeeze itself does not indicate direction. The $1.23 to $1.27 range is a "no-trade zone"; breaking above $1.27 is a bullish signal, while falling below $1.23 opens the floodgates for liquidation cascades. The most concerning news is the contradiction between "resilience" and "buying pressure." The Coinbase premium index has dropped to -0.16%, the lowest in eight months, indicating U.S. buying pressure is withdrawing; the October spot XRP ETF only netted inflows of $18.83 million. The daily close direction at $1.23 is more honest than any single momentum indicator. Holding this level leaves the post-squeeze directional choice uncertain; a daily close break points to 1.0692 as the next meaningful reference. "Resilience" can mean toughness or thin liquidity; XRP currently leans more toward the latter.$BTC's low of 76,388 yesterday was still broken through this morning. At 11 AM Beijing time, the hourly candle hit a low of 75,736, now pulling back to around 76,860, rebounding 1.5% from the low point, with the 24h basically flat.
swolecharts reports that from 0:00 to 3:52 UTC today, the entire network liquidated $127 million, with long positions accounting for 96%. BTC liquidations were $55.7 million, $ETH $27 million, and the largest single liquidation was a $5 million ETH long on Binance at 2,231.
ETH hit a low of 2,226, now at 2,263, with the funding rate dropping to +0.0026%, while BTC remains at +0.01%.
Binance BTC contract open interest dropped from $7.67 billion to $7.56 billion in 24 hours, but the long-short account ratio actually rose from 2.35 in the morning to 2.61, indicating many are bottom-fishing.
My view is that this move mainly wiped out long leverage. The drop in open interest is a bit of a cleanup, but longs have squeezed back in. Until 76,388 is reclaimed, I remain cautious."Your stop loss determines your position size," not the other way around where you set the position size first and then find a stop loss. Don't just place stop losses casually at support levels; instead, first ask yourself, "At what price point would my trading logic be proven wrong?" Place the stop loss just beyond that invalidation point, and then adjust your position size according to the stop loss distance.$XAUT EDGES UP AFTER A HARD SLIDE! XAUT/USDT (1D) trades at 3,946.1, up 0.27% today, below the chart's 4,190.9 peak. Insight: a green candle helps, but 7D at -2.56% and 180D at -16.03% show the bigger trend is heavy.
Are you watching 3,872.4 low or 3,962.9 24h high first?