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BTC / ETH Daily Review
$BTC｜77237
Yesterday, the bottom consolidation above 76000 was fully confirmed. Overnight, US stocks, semiconductors, and AMD earnings reports boosted risk sentiment, pushing BTC up near 79,000.
24-hour total liquidations across the network were only 174 million, with more than half from long position closures, indicating a retreat of bears rather than panic selling. The early morning quick retracement of gains suggests the rebound is driven by spillover funds from the stock market, not institutional entry.
Key divergence:
In previous midterm elections, BTC was always below the 200-day moving average; this year, it is standing 5%+ above the moving average against the trend.
However, ETFs continue to see large outflows, with institutional buying completely absent.
Short-term strategy:
Continue to consolidate and bottom above 76000.
Hold above 78200 → target 80000.
Break below 76000 → target 75000.
Tonight's ADP, ISM, and Friday's Nonfarm Payroll data form an intensive window; avoid leverage throughout.
Intraday range: 76800–77900｜Stop loss: 76400
$ETH｜2269
Support at 2250 has held for 5 consecutive days, showing slight resistance to decline but weak follow-through compared to BTC.
Core pressure comes from capital flow:
ETH spot ETFs have had net outflows for 6 consecutive days, totaling 1.18 billion in October. Institutions continue redeeming, fully suppressing market elasticity.
Key levels:
Hold above 2317 → recovery begins, target 2380.
Break below 2174 → straight to 2100.
As long as ETFs do not stop bleeding, ETH will have no independent rally and will follow the overall market volatility.
Intraday range: 2240–2300｜Stop loss: 2215 The election night isn't over yet, but futures have already turned sour.
The market was doing well during the day, with the Nasdaq even up 0.83%. Once the polls opened, the momentum for a Democratic sweep became increasingly clear, with Nasdaq futures plunging about 2% and S&P futures down about 1.2%.
In prediction markets, the probability of a Democratic sweep of both chambers has been pushed to around 99%, though it's not officially announced yet.
BTC didn't escape either, sliding to around $76,000. I think until the vote count settles, risk assets will cool off first.🗳️
$BTC BTC is at 76,500, the US is still counting votes after the election, and the market has been stuck in a small box between 76,300 and 78,700 these past two days, unable to go up or down.
Everyone is asking how things will move after the election. I’ve summarized that the market is actually waiting for four things.
First, the boot drops on $BTC. No matter who wins, once the election is over, the biggest uncertainty is gone. Since 1950, in every midterm election year, the S&P has never fallen; it has averaged a gain of over 15%. What money fears is not bad news, but uncertainty.
Second, how Congress is divided. This is more critical than who wins. If each side controls one chamber, no major policies can be pushed through, which sounds frustrating, but the market actually feels reassured because the rules won’t change drastically. If one side takes full control, policies will move quickly, both good and bad, causing greater volatility.
Third, matters within the crypto space itself. Regulatory bills must pass through Congress, so once the congressional makeup is set, there’s clarity on when these bills might be enacted and in which direction they will go. This is what the crypto community should really focus on.
Fourth, and what I think is the most critical: the interest rate hike in December. The market currently prices in an 85% chance of a hike. The election is just a gust of wind, but interest rates are the heavy stone pressing down continuously. No matter how positive the election outcome, if the rate hike comes, money will still retract.
So don’t expect an immediate takeoff after the election. In the short term, it will likely fluctuate back and forth as this gust of wind is digested. Looking ahead two to three months, the post-election period is more like a chance to slowly accumulate chips, not a time to chase gains.
$BTC $ETH #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 Since 2010, Bitcoin's average median return within 12 months after each U.S. midterm election has been 63%. Specifically, BTC rose 36.8% within 12 months after the 2014 midterm election, 45.8% after 2018, and 80.8% after 2022. As the 2026 midterm election approaches, investors are watching to see if this pattern will repeat. However, CryptoQuant warns that this pattern may reflect Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle rather than election outcomes. Midterm elections occur every four years, which coincides closely in timing with Bitcoin's halving cycle. For example, the 2022 midterm election was only a few months after the May 2020 halving, and the post-election period happened to be in a historically bullish cycle phase. Logic Behind the Correlation The apparent relationship between midterm elections and Bitcoin returns is a classic spurious correlation. Both events follow a four-year cycle, but the driving factors are completely different. Bitcoin halving reduces new supply and has historically triggered bull markets 12-18 months later. Midterm elections often lead to political gridlock, which some believe benefits risk assets, but there is little empirical evidence specifically for cryptocurrencies. More importantly, CryptoQuant points out that 2026 is showing a different trend. The current cycle is unusual, with Bitcoin reaching all-time highs before the halving and relatively mild gains afterward. Macro factors such as Federal Reserve policy, ETF capital flows, and regulatory developments are playing a larger role than before. Implications for Investors For traders, midterm #美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？
The boss has something to say
The US-Iran talks made no breakthrough, yet oil prices plunged more than 7% in a single day. Brent and WTI closed down 7.63% and 7.36% respectively, with Brent further dropping to $103.60 on the 3rd.
Why such a sharp drop? Because the market is trading on the "expectation of navigation resumption." Iran's Supreme Leader authorized negotiations and even proposed a "two-day plan," combined with Trump's statement that there is no immediate plan to resume large-scale military strikes, funds directly priced this as positive news.
I think this is a typical case of "buying the expectation." The comment from Pharaoh in the comment section is spot on: the acceleration is real, but the "two days" is a condition Iran set for the US, not a guarantee. Iran clearly demands the US first lift the blockade, sanctions, and release assets. As long as these two hard conditions are not met, the Strait could cause trouble at any time.
The short-term plunge in oil prices can temporarily ease inflation expectations but also squeezes out the geopolitical risk premium. For the Federal Reserve, this is a breather.
BTC is still fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000. Let's see if it can hold above 80,000; if not, expect a deeper pullback. Resistance is between 84,000 and 85,000. Don't chase the rise or kill the dip; set your stop-loss orders properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Democratic ballots lead, U.S. stocks under pressure, how much longer can the crypto market hold?
The main pressure in today's market comes from the U.S. midterm elections. Currently, the Democratic Party is making progress in several key districts, raising expectations of taking the House of Representatives, while the Senate results remain uncertain. The market is worried about stricter regulations on AI and tech giants afterward. U.S. stock futures responded with declines; Nasdaq futures fell about 1.8% at one point, and S&P 500 futures dropped about 0.8%.
This risk sentiment is also transmitting to the crypto market. BTC is currently fluctuating around $76,000, ETH has returned to around $2,240, with a weak 4-hour trend and limited rebound strength. Regarding ETFs, the BTC spot ETF previously saw a single-day net outflow of about $399 million, and the ETH ETF has had net outflows for seven consecutive trading days, totaling about $582 million. Institutional funds have not yet shown obvious inflows.
The futures market also warrants caution: BTC and ETH long accounts still account for nearly 70%, and funding rates remain positive, indicating that bullish sentiment in the market has not completely faded. If prices continue to decline, crowded long positions may still trigger a chain of stop-losses.
On the macro side, market expectations for a rapid Fed rate cut remain limited, and the December rate decision is still uncertain. Election results, rate expectations, and capital flows are jointly influencing the performance of risk assets.
Yan Yan believes it’s best not to rush to bottom-fish in the short term. Focus on BTC around $75,700 and ETH near $2,225;
Do you think the Democrats continuing to lead will cause further declines in U.S. stocks and crypto, or will there be a rebound after the negative news settles?$HYPE Binance was hacked, why are they dumping HYPE?
Since October 30, the heavy selling pressure on $HYPE:
10/30–31: a16z-related addresses transferred 118,000 tokens at an average price of 90.72 to market makers like Wintermute, Galaxy, Cumberland.
During these 3 days: FalconX cumulatively transferred about 350,000 tokens to Coinbase, approximately $30.57 million.
11/4: suspected a16z addresses deposited about 32,900 tokens to Gate, OKX, Bybit.
I previously opened a hedged short position at an average price of 82.4, which is starting to work; I reduced my position when it was above 90, so all operations were pre-announced and shared live, related judgments and operation records can be found in the citations.
This so-called big trader speculation is actually institutions continuously distributing, and I have long understood this. You can check my latest post on HYPE’s range for specific judgments; just scroll down the citations to find it.
HYPE’s technicals have started to look difficult; last week’s positive news was completely wiped out technically. I maintain my previous judgment to continue shorting.
These funds dumping the market means the capital behind them is leaving crypto. This is why Binance was hacked and HYPE was dumped; it’s part of the aftershocks. Transferring to market makers is just consignment selling.
This operation is still an excellent prediction 🫶Crude Oil on November 4:
Recently, international oil prices have sharply corrected. The core driver is the release of geopolitical risk premium due to US-Iran negotiation news. After a rapid sharp drop in the short term, the decline has narrowed; fundamentals such as low inventory and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have formed support below. Oil prices have entered a high-level oscillation and game phase, with increasing divergence between bulls and bears.
Next, go long directly near 94, with a stop at 92.8, target 98! Only down 0.19% in 24H, compared to "breaking below 77000," I care more about this magnitude. OKX market shows BTC currently at 76999.9 USDT.
Watching the key level VS watching the decline, I lean towards the latter: integer level breaks easily trigger emotions, but this small decline alone is not enough to judge a weakening trend. I think the emotional impact of this news is greater than the trend signal. Which side are you on: more concerned about losing 77000, or how much it actually fell in 24H? The Democratic Party is leading in the polls, and the market is starting to get nervous!
Today, the U.S. midterm elections have become the biggest variable for the market. Currently, the Democrats have made progress in several key districts, raising expectations that control of the House of Representatives may change hands, while the Senate results remain uncertain.
After the news broke, U.S. stock futures have already declined, with Nasdaq futures dropping about 1.8% at one point, and S&P 500 futures down about 0.8%. If the Democrats ultimately secure more seats, the market may worry that tech giants and the AI industry will face stricter regulations, causing short-term pressure on U.S. tech stocks and the broader market.
The crypto space should also take note: as risk appetite in U.S. stocks declines, this may further transmit to BTC and altcoins.
Tonight, attention should also be paid to the U.S. ADP employment data and ISM services PMI, which may continue to influence market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
I believe that before the election results are finalized, market volatility may increase, so it’s best not to blindly chase gains for now.
What do you think? With the Democrats leading, how do you expect the market to move next?
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Optimism ($OP)
Ethereum needs scaling solutions that developers can actually build on! ⚡
Optimism ($OP) is an Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem using optimistic rollup technology. Its OP Stack also provides infrastructure for developers building Ethereum-compatible networks.
The bigger vision is an interconnected ecosystem of blockchain networks with shared technology. Will Layer 2 infrastructure become the foundation of mainstream Ethereum adoption?SOL closed 6,856 positions with a 100% win rate, netting a profit of 1.39 million dollars. If you rush to blindly copy this data with one click, you will most likely become the next victim. After casually reviewing all his transactions on HyperTrend, it was found that it is impossible to replicate: These 6,856 profitable closed positions are actually 6,808 trades all concentrated on the same day—June 8. So this is not a high-frequency strategy spread over several months, but a record of closing a single trade. He opened a short position on May 12 when SOL was above $94. Over the next 27 days, the market fluctuated back and forth, and he neither reduced nor closed the position. Instead, by continuously adding over 4,500 market sell orders, he pushed the short position size to 33,000 SOL, with a holding value close to 3 million dollars. For a whole month, he held this huge short position. Until June 8, when SOL completely broke down, falling below $64. The pre-set script executed 6,808 buy orders in one go that day to cover the position, locking in a profit of 1.36 million dollars at once. The so-called "over 6,800 trades with 100% win rate" is simply this: from start to finish, there was actually only this one short position, and he just split the 33,000 SOL into 6,800 small orders to close it. Dare to hold a 3 million dollar short position underwater for a whole month Since 1982, the U.S. midterm elections have been held 11 times.
In the year following each election, the U.S. stock market rose all 11 times, with an average increase of 13%.
Bitcoin performed even better, with an average increase of over 50%.
This time, the first night of voting saw a drop.
S&P futures turned from up to down, falling 0.6%.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.5%, and Dow futures fell 252 points.
Bitcoin followed with a slight decline.
On betting sites,
Democrats have a 90% chance to win the Senate and 97% to win the House.
What is the market afraid of?
Data centers.
The Democrats want to impose limits on data centers.
AI relies entirely on data centers to run.
If limited, AI will be slower and more expensive.
AI is the engine driving this market cycle.
If the engine shakes, the coins shake along.
In the past 11 times, the market rose, but AI wasn’t this big yet.
Now, coins don’t follow the halving or ETFs.
They follow AI.
If AI can’t get money, Bitcoin can’t get money.
$BTCThis whale first acquired 3,052 ZEC, investing nearly 3.8 million USD in spot; after establishing the spot base position, they continued to add more, opening a 2x leveraged long position corresponding to 8,000 coins, bringing the total nominal position value to 10.16 million USD.
There are several highlights in this setup:
First, the strategy combines spot with contracts, using spot as the foundation and leveraging to amplify returns, indicating strong confidence in the subsequent market trend.
Second, only 2x leverage is used, which is considered conservative in the crypto space; it doesn't look like a pure gamble but more like positioning for a trend. Some speculate that they might have gotten early access to positive news that hasn't been made public yet.
ZEC is a veteran privacy coin with usually low popularity and quiet price movements, so suddenly seeing accumulation at this scale is indeed unusual. $ZEC #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Jiang Zhuoer’s latest post reviews the logic behind a "no action" decision 📊
He stated:
Just now, it did not meet the criteria for a valid break below $76,000, so no hedge short position was opened.
What counts as a "valid break"?
He explained:
A valid break should be forceful, with a large bearish candle dropping immediately away from the $76,000 level.
But the recent situation was:
After breaking below $76,000, it hesitated and fluctuated back and forth, and then indeed bounced back up.
His conclusion:
"It seems there are many buyers stepping in," first watching for a rebound to $78,000 to $79,000.
The interesting part of this review is that he shared not a simple price prediction, but a methodology on "how to judge whether a breakout/breakdown is valid." Whether the price quickly moves away from a key level better reflects the true strength of bulls and bears than just whether it breaks or not. The hesitation around the $76,000 level also somewhat confirms that there is indeed buying support below.
$BTC $UNI UNI's chart looks top-heavy and a bit ridiculous.
Retail investors are still wildly betting on the long side, with the long-short ratio pulled up to 2.48, and leveraged longs piled higher than a mountain.
As a result, the underlying liquidity pool has shrunk by nearly 30% in a week, with basically no money left in the pool.
Without support, this kind of bloated structure, if slightly dumped, will cause slippage that breaks all retail investors' stop-loss lines, triggering a chain liquidation for sure.
#UNI
$UNI
👇The U.S. midterm elections will begin voting on November 3rd Eastern Time, corresponding to 8 AM Beijing Time on November 4th, with results being released gradually. This election does not select the president; the focus is on congressional seats: all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for re-election, and 35 seats in the Senate will be contested.
Currently, both chambers of Congress are controlled by the Republican Party, but according to Kalshi's prediction market, the situation is leaning toward the Democratic Party: the expected probability of the Democrats taking the House is 94%, and the probability of taking the Senate is 71%.
The party controlling Congress will directly determine the pace of advancing crypto-related legislation, and the strictness of regulation will change accordingly.
There is also a widely circulated observation in the market: the bottoms of Bitcoin's previous three bear markets all appeared some time after the midterm elections, with intervals of 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days from the voting day respectively. Many are curious whether history will repeat itself. $BTC $ETH #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ It's 11:30 AM, brothers, have you all ordered your takeout and are ready to switch over to watch a light drama? Hold on a moment. Seeing those green bars at 5 minutes and 15 minutes, your heart starts itching again, thinking the price has bottomed out and it's time to buy. But looking at the big cycle capital flow, you definitely want to avoid bottom fishing.
First, look at $BTC. Short-term funds are indeed flowing in, but if you extend the cycle to 30 days, the contract side has a net outflow of 11.381 billion. What does this mean? The main players are distributing at highs and are frantically retreating. Although the spot side has a slight inflow of over 70 million in 24 hours, compared to the selling pressure at the hundred-billion level, it’s barely a splash. Don’t be fooled by short-term illusions.
Next, look at $ETH. The pattern is exactly the same. The 30-day contract net outflow is 10.101 billion, and the spot side has also lost 2.8 billion. These two troubled brothers, the main players have long stopped pretending; funds are flowing out daily. If you rush in now to bottom fish, you’re just providing liquidity for the big players.
The only somewhat promising one is $SOL. Although the contract long cycle is also seeing outflows, the spot side has surprisingly had a net inflow of 29.05 million over 30 days, with 15-day and 1-week periods also positive. This indicates that some big players are quietly accumulating at the bottom. But the overall environment is unfavorable; it can’t carry the market alone and can’t stir up big waves for now.
Summary: Short-term rises are bait; long-term large outflows are the truth. The main players are all retreating, so retail investors shouldn’t be cannon fodder.
Facing this big player mass exodus, are you planning to stay out and keep safe, or stubbornly try to bottom fish?
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Seeing a publicly listed company buying coins, the common reaction is "institutional recognition, ecosystem benefits." According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Tron Inc. (Nasdaq ticker: TRON) purchased 154,403 TRON at an average price of $0.3238, totaling about $49,800.
On the other hand, I am more cautious about directly taking a company's coin purchase as evidence of ecosystem strengthening. One reason is that an increase in company holdings only shows that the purchase happened; it does not prove an increase in ordinary users' demand. Another reason is that the identity of a listed company tends to add weight to the news, but stocks and tokens are not the same type of asset, and the company's judgment cannot replace that of the token holders themselves. I think this news is more directly meaningful for "enterprise allocation" than as proof of "ecosystem growth."
Would you consider this purchase as evidence of ecosystem growth? Opposing views are welcome to debate whether there is still a missing link between the two.As of this morning (2026-11-04), the price of $XRP is approximately in the range of $1.25–$1.28, showing a slight short-term recovery but overall still in a weak zone following the sharp drop in October.
Resistance above: $1.28–$1.29; if volume increases and it holds above, then look towards $1.31 and $1.39.
Support below: $1.245–$1.25; if it breaks below, it may retest $1.20, with a further target of $1.09.
Key signals: Whether XRP can hold $1.25, whether ETF fund flows improve, and whether it can reclaim above $1.28–$1.30.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Just saw this, and what popped into my head was: The US election results aren't out yet, so why is the South Korean stock market already nervous? I've only been in the crypto space for a year, so I tend to interpret this kind of news directly as "risk assets are under pressure," but after thinking about it, it seems like a few steps of evidence are missing 🤔
According to reports, while investors await the US midterm election results, the South Korean stock market opened higher but then turned lower, with AI-related stocks retreating. The KOSPI index fell by 2.7%, Samsung Electronics dropped 3%, and SK Hynix declined by 4.5%. These numbers indicate a downward trend, but they alone can't explain why funds are exiting.
My judgment is that this news is important but shouldn't be directly taken as a bearish signal for the crypto space. What I understand is that the uncertainty from awaiting results might cause funds to temporarily reduce risk exposure, which doesn't mean there's a problem with corporate operations; and the decline in heavyweight stocks affects index performance but doesn't mean the entire market is retreating in sync. If we want to speculate that the pressure is spreading to crypto, we need to see if there's a common change in liquidity.
What I haven't figured out yet is, the news mentions "election worries"—how can we distinguish whether this is the main cause or just an explanation attached to the decline? I'd like to ask experienced seniors: to verify if this is a cross-market risk aversion, would you prioritize looking at foreign capital flows in Korean stocks or the Korean won exchange rate, and why?#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Tonight, Circle's Q3 earnings report is released, and currently, CRCL/xCRCL are both down over 4% in pre-market as a risk-off move. Right now, 56% of market funds are betting on earnings beating expectations. The key focus is whether USDC circulation can withstand the Federal Reserve's rate cut pressure and break 80 billion, and whether net profit can continue to run at an above-expected growth rate. This will directly determine the future market height of the stablecoin sector. #Báo cáo tài chính của Circle sắp ra mắt, liệu sự tăng trưởng của stablecoin có thể hiện thực hóa lợi nhuận không?
Circle (CRCL) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview:
Consensus Estimates: Wall Street expects Q3 revenue of ~$788.5M (~6.6% YoY growth) and a GAAP EPS consensus threshold of $0.37.
Key Drivers: Growth is supported by rising USDC circulation (~$74.6B) and payment activity, though moderated by pressure from lower reserve yields and interest rate sensitivity. Mid-term intelligence analyst takes everyone through the market's "potential challenges."
In this wave of market action, BTC, ETH, and SOL are all under pressure. The intelligence is as follows:
Regarding $BTC, spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of over 1 billion in two days, and BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day outflow of 405 million. The coin price fell below 77,000, a 39% retracement from the high. Coupled with the Binance hacker incident and midterm election uncertainties, Hayes warned of further downward pressure, cautioning about long liquidations at the 76,800 level.
For $ETH, ETFs recorded a monthly outflow record of 1.61 billion in October, and BlackRock's ETHA sold 138 million in a single day. Funds have retreated for five consecutive weeks. On the ecosystem side, Devcon speeches were harshly criticized by Paradigm's CTO, questioning developer incentives, adding insult to injury.
$SOL is also unsettled, suspected hacker cross-chain transfers have broken the bullish technical structure, warning to test the 80-dollar support. DEX trading volume has halved since late summer, with a capital outflow of 71 million.
Summary: Macro factors and hacker incidents resonate together; keep a close eye on support levels!
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Conclusion first: $KMNO rose +9.5% in the past 24 hours (0.0297→0.0325), bucking the trend among 166 declining coins. But this was triggered by news.
On November 2, Kamino Foundation sent a letter to token holders: at least $20 million will be invested in tokenized assets over 24 months; KMNO is the only token in the ecosystem; future unlocks are tied to milestones with FDV from $1 billion to $10 billion — valuation must reach the threshold for the team to unlock. On October 26, Aave Labs, Kamino, and Veda jointly submitted a confidential legal framework to the SEC, arguing that decentralized lending does not constitute a securities arrangement; by the end of October, the lending protocol market size exceeded $50 billion.
You should watch three numbers:
① Unlocking depends on valuation, not time; current FDV is only $326 million, far from the $1 billion unlock threshold.
② Protocol TVL is $1.284 billion, but tokenized stock supply is only about $50 million — in a $20 million bet sector, the market cap is just $50 million.
③ Perpetual 24-hour trading volume is $6.93 million, open interest is only 760,000, and spot trading volume is just $970,000 per day. Yesterday’s peak at 0.03494 on the 1H chart can be broken through.
Do you dare to catch this 9.5%? $KMNO $BTC panic sentiment fully ignited, UVXY violently surging, the golden window for blind long positions has already opened!
Keep a close eye on your charts, the horn of this bull counterattack is extremely loud:
First, the technicals show a perfect bull domination. On the 15-minute chart, a huge bullish candle shoots up, with the moving average system (MA5, MA10, MA20) showing a highly divergent bullish alignment. The current price is strongly consolidating near 20.10 at a high level; this is not stagnation but a buildup to break through the previous high of 20.42!
Second, the order book hides the main force's support code. Notice your order book, there is a massive buy order of 884.20 at 20.06 providing a strong floor, like an iron wall; meanwhile, the current funding rate is -0.162%, meaning going long not only lets you capture the 3x leverage gains but also earn funding fees from shorts, making holding costs excellent!
Finally, the core logic is extremely hardcore. UVXY, as a 1.5x leveraged ETF on the fear index, is the ultimate tool for global capital risk aversion. With the US stock market volatile at highs, risk-averse capital is rushing in to push up the fear index (VIX), and the big trend is completely favoring the bulls.
Your limit long order at 20.11 is right on the launchpad of the main upward wave. Stay firmly bullish, follow the trend, and any short counterattack is a golden pit giving you free money! $ETH $ZEC $BTC $ETH For the mainstream market, this morning's pullback is very likely an emergency risk aversion by institutions in advance, and the market has started panic selling. But can this kind of market really be shorted? Caibao thinks there will be a short-term pullback but it won't affect the subsequent rally. Historically, midterm elections mostly result in presidential failures because the promises made after taking office are basically unfulfilled, and the reputation is relatively poor. So far, there have only been 3 successful midterm elections in history.
The market has been digesting this negative news. Before the election results are announced, the market will basically fluctuate back and forth for consolidation. After the results are finalized and the negative news is realized, the market usually falls first and then rises. Institutions will only enter to bottom-fish after the event is settled.
Ethereum spot ETF has had net outflows for 7 consecutive days, with the largest redemptions from BlackRock institutions. Coupled with recent hacker incidents, the bearish leverage has basically been liquidated in this round. If institutions start positive inflows later, the market may soon see a reversal.
Therefore, Caibao's reference suggestion is that the US stock token SPCX can be shorted in waves.
Mainstream BTC and ETH are bearish in the short term but not to be shorted, as they are already near the tail end of the market. A steady right-side bottom-fishing approach will be more prudent.More intriguing than losing money is the hacker's purchasing method. The issuer freezes assets forcing him to rush, and on-chain payments almost ignore the price—this forced buy order explains the situation better than the candlestick chart.
$ETH has become the passive receiver. The hacker's on-chain average purchase price of Ethereum is over 2,600, more than 300 dollars higher than derivatives, effectively paying a premium to the entire network. So ETH holding above 2,300 these days is not due to bullish strength but because someone is buying regardless of cost. My principle: do not add positions before 2,300 is firmly held; after it stabilizes, then consider previous highs.
$UNI is the most direct outlet for slippage; the shallow market depth is torn open by large orders creating a several hundred dollar gap. Short-term funds will reprice the DEX depth. I won't act on volume contraction above 7; will reconsider if it breaks below previous lows.
In the $HYPE event, derivative prices have become the anchor, with depth enduring the test. Currently consolidating around 84, still below the cost line over thirty days. I keep a base position and will add more if it dips below 80.
Conclusion: wait for forced buy orders to appear before entering; costs are bound to be higher than anticipated. The story begins with a long position. Core Trader 02 (0x9c062c…00560) opened a long on $PLTR with 10x leverage, holding 724.076 units, with a notional value of about $121,900. The monitoring captured this moment, but the ending remains unknown.
When I see numbers like this, I’m initially drawn to the amount. But after reading this, I want to say: this is a clearly directional trade, but it can’t yet be called a "heavy bet." The size of the amount and how important this trade is to him are two different things.
The reason lies off-camera. The notional value is the leveraged exposure; roughly calculated at 10x, the initial margin corresponds to about $12,200, excluding fees and margin mode differences; we don’t know the total account balance, so we can’t judge what percentage this represents; nor can we see other positions—if there are offsetting positions, then the role of this long in the overall strategy would change—this is just my speculation, not a known fact.
So the takeaway from this story is: don’t write an inner narrative for an address. The long position has been opened, but how strong the confidence is and how long it will be held remain unanswered. I will wait for his next move rather than hastily narrate this scene as a "whale bullish" story. What do you think—will this story end in profit-taking or a stop loss? What subsequent actions would make you more convinced of one outcome over the other?$ETH market has already started a downtrend ahead of schedule. Is the Republican Party going to lose in today's midterm election vote? What impact will this have on the subsequent market? What is the bottom position for BTC?
Currently, it is almost certain that the Democratic Party will sweep both chambers. The most anxious now should be Elon Musk, because he previously spent a large amount of money supporting the Republican Party to secure the Senate. If they lose, investigations into $SPCX and $TSLA will follow, and subsequent policy resistance may increase. This is definitely a major short-term negative. Additionally, the top ten on-chain addresses are mostly shorting at high levels, so selling pressure will be relatively strong. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC BTC 76274! 75K arrived as expected, did you catch it? I have already taken a light position!
Market confirmation: BTC perpetual contract currently at 76274.0 (24h down 1.50%), 24h volume exploded to 6.143 billion! The 1-hour chart closed with a large bearish candle, bottoming at 75690.1, precisely within yesterday's warning range of "75K-73.3K".
Indicators oversold, but the heavy sell-off volume prevents a false bull trap:
MACD: sharp volume increase below zero line, final capitulation of bears;
KDJ: extreme oversold, short-term rebound possible, but no divergence means no bottom confirmed;
MFI: 26.8 (capital flow freezing point), compared to the morning's election game, funds are truly fleeing, not just a simple shakeout.
Key levels (latest 1-hour):
Support: 76022 (immediate) → 75690 (previous low critical point) → 75000 (psychological/ultimate bottom at 73.3K);
Resistance: 77181 (resistance level) → 77413 (Supertrend bull/bear boundary) → 78831 (previous high).
"75K order entry" logic (dominated by election variables):
Yesterday I said "76.2K decides life or death, break to see 75K," now fulfilled as expected! Before the election results land, the sell-off is a golden pit. I have taken an extremely light long position (1%-2%) above 75690, with strict stop loss at 75000/75690 break. Only a move back above 77181 confirms a rebound, passing 77413 turns safe; if the election deadlock or negative news occurs, breaking 75690 directly targets 73300, no holding the position.
Control your trades at the mid-level!CNN has already given a prediction for the U.S. midterm elections in the House of Representatives: 171 seats have been decided, with Democrats holding 110 seats and Republicans 61 seats. The majority party is about to change.
The speed at which this news spreads in the crypto community is even faster than the results themselves. Over the past two years, people have gotten used to directly translating "Washington changing hands" into "bullish" or "bearish" signals and immediately looking for corresponding price movements.
But when the House changes its majority party, the first thing to change isn't the coin price, but the process. The House controls three things: appropriations, committee chairmanships, and bill scheduling. The provisions that the crypto industry truly cares about—whether they can be scheduled on the agenda, who will preside over the discussions, and the voting time window—all start to diverge from this stage. This is a slow variable, not breaking news.
So for assets like $BTC, the short-term movement is more likely to be driven by sentiment first and text later. The sentiment phase is the easiest to profit from and also the riskiest because it doesn't rely on any facts; the text phase determines the mid-term direction, and the text often takes weeks or even months to appear.
My judgment is: this news is worth noting but not worth adjusting your position on the same day. The real signal appears on the day the bill draft is made public, focusing on the breadth of the provisions, not the election score.
Here's a question worth pondering: Over the past two years, how much of your crypto gains or losses have truly been related to the same-day market reaction to a piece of Washington news? For most people, the answer is actually very little. What determines the outcome is still your reaction speed and position size.#AMDQ3DataCenterUp97% i see AMD as a strong long-term AI infrastructure investment candidate. However, I would evaluate its valuation and stock price before entering.
My key takeaway: AMD is no longer just betting on the AI boom; it is increasingly generating substantial revenue from it.
I would keep AMD on my long-term watchlist alongside NVDA, MSFT and GOOGL.$FIL FIL in this round, I am holding a base position to play the recovery rally of the storage narrative, without being empty and waiting for signals.
There has always been long-term miner selling pressure, which is a burden it can't shake off, but recently the market has changed, and the downward momentum is slowly weakening, no longer a mindless dump rhythm. I am gradually building my position according to plan, setting up defensive lines, not doing frequent short-term trades, betting on capital inflow into the storage sector to bring a wave of recovery.
Keep an eye on the first resistance level above; consider adding positions to push profits only after a volume-supported breakout; if it breaks the defense line, decisively reduce positions to control losses, not stubbornly holding and getting deeply trapped. The sector logic still holds, but the start requires cooperation from the overall market and sector funds, so hold positions patiently and wait for capital to choose the direction.The U.S. midterm elections have officially entered a critical phase, and the election results will become a key short-term market variable. Different congressional configurations have distinctly different impacts on the pricing logic of gold.
The current market expectation leans toward the Democrats taking the House of Representatives, while the Senate's control remains uncertain. After the election results are finalized, there are roughly two core scenarios to consider.
First, a divided Congress. Each party controls one chamber, making legislative and budget progress prone to gridlock, increasing the difficulty of passing major policies and constraining the administrative agenda. In this environment, market uncertainty fluctuates, and the market is likely to remain volatile with no clear trend. Gold is unlikely to experience a strong one-sided rally and will more likely fluctuate with news.
Second, if the Democrats control both chambers. Subsequent scrutiny and investigations targeting the executive branch will increase, major legislation will face ongoing contention, budget disagreements and potential government shutdown risks will heighten market risk aversion, and capital will reprice uncertainty, potentially providing strong support for gold.
Looking back, when the ruling party controls both chambers, policy implementation is more efficient; once congressional checks and balances strengthen, aggressive policies and geopolitically related actions are easily restrained, which can also affect oil price dynamics. Of course, the above is only a market projection based on the political landscape. Ultimately, everything awaits the election results to be finalized before re-evaluating market pricing #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $XAU Midterm elections show preliminary Democratic advantage, U.S. Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens
On November 4, preliminary results of the U.S. midterm elections indicate a Democratic advantage. Market sentiment betting on the Democrats taking control of both chambers of Congress quickly intensified, leading to price fluctuations across various asset classes.
The bond market reacted most directly. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell from an earlier 4.97% to around 4.89%, reaching its lowest level since early September.
Risk assets and the dollar simultaneously came under pressure. U.S. stock index futures faced sell-offs, with S&P 500 futures down 1.36% and Nasdaq 100 futures declining further by 2.32%; the dollar index also weakened, dropping to its lowest level since late September.
Fortunately, amid the dollar's weakness, non-U.S. currencies with safe-haven attributes strengthened. The Swiss franc rose 0.8%, the euro gained 0.6% against the dollar, and the yen appreciated 0.5% versus the dollar.
Currently, market trading logic mainly revolves around expectations of a divided government. Investors judge that the difficulty of implementing large-scale fiscal expansion policies will increase, which may suppress long-term U.S. Treasury yields and reduce the dollar's appeal.
However, some market views hold that vote counting in the midterm elections is still ongoing, and the final control of Congress has not yet been fully determined.
If election outcomes change later, market pricing for fiscal policy, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields may still adjust.
#美国中期选举At 5 AM, $BTC reached 78,066. When I woke up and checked, it had already dropped back to 76,954.
Last night I said I would only consider moving if it held steady at 77,600, but it surged past that and then fell back down. Luckily, I didn’t chase it.
There’s one number I’m paying close attention to: the long-short ratio dropped from 2.76 last night to 2.38. Fewer people are bottom-fishing, which actually makes me feel it’s less risky.
But for now, I won’t make a move. The US election votes are still being counted, and neither chamber is decided yet. If the low of 76,853 this morning doesn’t hold, I’ll be watching around 75,856 first.
Data as of 08:38, personal review, not investment advice.
What do you think will happen first today: a return to 78,000 or a break below 76,000?
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 #BTC #MarketAnalysisThe situation in the Middle East is heating up. What the market really needs to be wary of is not the news itself, but the sudden reversal of risk sentiment.
If the US-Iran conflict escalates, don’t rush to treat $BTC as the first choice for safe haven. The trends over the past few years have shown that BTC often behaves more like a high-risk asset during panic markets and can also face sell-offs when liquidity tightens.
What’s truly worth watching are the fund flows in gold, US Treasuries, and the movement of the US dollar.
My thinking is simple: geopolitical conflicts bring uncertainty, not an unconditional signal to go long.
First observe the situation, then watch the funds. Don’t let panic make your trading decisions for you.
$BTC $ETH #CryptoMarket #MiddleEastSituation
#USMidtermsCongressWatch SOL lifted back to 93, HYPE took a breather after the surge
$SOL 93.17, down 0.8% in the past 24 hours, partial rebound is happening, but the long-term momentum is still weak 🔵
Based on the closed daily chart, RSI14 is about 25.5, momentum remains weak, the current rebound looks more like a repair of previous resistance, the longer-term trend cannot yet be considered strong.
The quote is about 2.5% higher than the low of 90.87, showing some local reaction. I would give some credit to the rebound while still maintaining the judgment of weak momentum; both perspectives need to be honestly included.
$HYPE 85.7, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours, took a breather after the surge, original zone still below 🪁
Lifted from around 84, after reaching 86.63 it retreated to 85.7, giving back some gains but still above the previous 84.5 area, the rebound hasn’t fully returned to the starting point.
This retreat looks more like a pause after an upward move, not a complete failure of the recovery. I am moderately optimistic locally, based on the remaining zone rather than just the speed at the peak; the position still holds.
$ICP 2.484, down 0.9% in the past 24 hours, trading volume doubled but price hasn’t moved 🧮
In the past three full hours, price only rose 0.1%, but trading volume was 2.1 times that of the previous three hours, more trading hasn’t brought a corresponding upward move, heat and momentum are temporarily disconnected.
After reaching 2.501, the quote returned to 2.484, no hold above 2.50. I tend to see this as range consolidation; increased volume needs to be accompanied by price movement, so I don’t rate it as accelerating upward yet.Bitcoin's "Election Effect": Political Catalyst or Just Coinciding with the Halving Cycle? As the U.S. midterm elections approach, market participants are once again debating whether political outcomes can reliably predict Bitcoin price trends. Historical data reveals an interesting phenomenon: since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen in the year following all 19 midterm elections, with an average gain of 15.1%. Bitcoin, across its three full cycles, has also seen higher prices one year after each midterm election. However, in the weeks immediately following the elections, Bitcoin has without exception experienced declines—this detail complicates the narrative of the "election effect." Overlapping Halving Cycles The core challenge in isolating the election effect is that every midterm election in Bitcoin's history has coincided with a halving cycle. The 2014 midterms occurred about six months after the 2012 halving, the 2018 midterms about 16 months after the 2016 halving, and the 2022 midterms about 18 months after the 2020 halving. These periods represent different stages of the supply shock cycle, making it difficult to attribute post-election gains solely to political outcomes. The halving mechanism—cutting Bitcoin's new issuance roughly in half every four years—has historically been the primary driver of price cycles, often overshadowing other macro and political factors. Post-Election Volatility: A Consistent Pattern Despite positive one-year returns, the immediate period following midterm elections is characterized by short-term weakness. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin after the voteEarnings exceeded expectations, but the stock price still fell
$GOOGL earnings report came out, with both revenue and profit rising.
It was still sold off after hours.
The key point is this: what fell was not the performance, but the expectations
Buyers had already priced in the “growth.”
The earnings report just turned expectations into numbers.
The next step is: if guidance is lowered, those who have made enough profit will run first
The price is set by the most urgent seller.
No matter how good the performance is, it can’t stop them from selling first.
The earnings report owes no one, it owes the cost to those who bought at the high point.
#闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13%
#$GOOGL $ETH
A security incident occurred on the trading platform, but why can't we directly conclude that there is a problem with the Ethereum network?
Custody keys, application contracts, and underlying consensus belong to different risk layers. To assess ETH, we still need to focus on settlement demand, staking activities, and network fees.
The opposing view is that fund withdrawals will transmit from the platform to the chain. If stablecoin settlement and lending demand recover and fees remain stable, I would increase my assessment of recovery; if only the coin price rebounds while on-chain activity continues to contract, the evidence is still insufficient.After the U.S. stock market closed on Tuesday, November 3, copper, natural gas, and silver showed a pattern of “sharp declines in copper and silver, with natural gas standing out.” Copper and silver were suppressed by uncertainties surrounding the U.S. midterm elections, a stronger dollar, and rising U.S. Treasury yields; natural gas, however, rose against the trend due to its tight supply-demand structure.
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🔴 Copper: Risk appetite declines combined with rising costs for Chinese buyers, plunging over 2.5%
COMEX December copper futures closed at $6.4020 per pound, down 2.52%, hitting an intraday low of $6.318—the lowest since October 22—with a trading range of $6.318–$6.5525. Volume expanded to 67,736 contracts, while open interest slightly decreased to 153,677 contracts.
The core driver of the copper price plunge was a concentrated drop in risk appetite. On the day of the U.S. midterm election voting, the market worried that if the Democrats gained significant advantage, regulatory scrutiny on AI data center construction might intensify, negatively impacting copper demand expectations. KCM Trade analysts explicitly noted that regulatory pressure on the tech sector would transmit to the copper market through the AI computing power chain.
Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China raised the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio to guide the RMB exchange rate lower, directly increasing the cost for Chinese buyers to purchase dollar-denominated copper, suppressing marginal spot buying. The domestic Shanghai copper December contract also fell by 1,490 yuan to 106,090 yuan/ton.
However, the fundamental bottom support remains intact. The Yangshan copper premium remains high at $200/ton, indicating strong spot demand in China; the Chilean Copper Commission lowered its 2026 production forecast from 5.27 million tons to 4.94 million tons (a decrease of 8.4%) and simultaneously cut the 2027 production outlook, reinforcing supply constraints at the mine level. The copper price decline is more a short-term release of financial pressure rather than a deterioration of physical supply and demand.
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🥈 Silver: Pressured by the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, decline far exceeds gold’s
COMEX December silver futures closed at $49.810 per ounce, down $1.078 or 2.12%, with an intraday range of $48.62–$50.915. Silver’s decline was nearly three times that of gold (-0.74%), with both financial and industrial attributes under pressure.
The suppression came from two directions. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose in tandem, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.9%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, hitting silver first. At the same time, uncertainty around the U.S. midterm elections prompted investors to reduce risk exposure, with silver, a highly volatile asset, being sold off first.
A deeper drag was that oil prices fell about 2% intraday, briefly easing inflation concerns and driving a rebound in gold and silver, but then rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar overwhelmed this positive, causing gold to retreat from highs and silver to weaken accordingly. The World Gold Council on the same day lowered its forecast for gold investment demand growth this year from 400 tons to 200 tons, citing weaker demand for bars and coins, a sentiment that indirectly affected silver as well.
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🔥 Natural Gas: Rising against the trend, tight supply-demand structure provides independent support
NYMEX natural gas futures closed at $2.883 per million British thermal units, up $0.019 or 0.66%, with a daily high of $2.88 and low of $2.85. Against the backdrop of sharp declines in copper and silver, natural gas showed a completely independent and relatively strong trend.
The rise in natural gas is rooted in a marginal tightening of the U.S. domestic market’s supply-demand structure. Although expectations of a warm winter remain the core narrative suppressing midterm prices, short-term production has fallen from peak levels, and LNG export terminals are gradually recovering after concentrated shutdowns, providing bottom support for prices. In the week ending October 30, natural gas futures rose cumulatively by 9.79%, reaching a high of $3.092, indicating that short-covering demand after extreme crowding remains.
Unlike copper and silver, natural gas pricing is anchored in domestic supply and demand, making it less sensitive to a stronger dollar and midterm election risks. When financial-attribute-dominated commodities are sold off en masse due to macro sentiment, natural gas, supported by its tight fundamentals, became one of the few commodities to close higher that evening.
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💎 Summary
Copper and silver are trading under a macro suppression combination of “stronger dollar + rising U.S. Treasury yields + midterm election uncertainty,” with copper additionally burdened by rising marginal buying costs due to China’s foreign exchange policy; natural gas trades on an independent logic of “marginal tightening of domestic supply and demand + short-covering after crowded shorts,” temporarily decoupling from the synchronized fluctuations of macro risk assets. Copper’s decline has not shaken the supply constraints at the mine level or the physical demand reflected by the Yangshan premium, while silver needs to watch the next moves of the dollar and interest rates—if the dollar falls after midterm election results are finalized, silver’s recovery potential may exceed that of copper.Stop sleeping, your position is getting crushed
These past two days are not just a pullback, it's a full-scale retreat.
BTC: Volume surge breaking support, not a shakeout
From 78,700 down to 75,800 in three days, the key is volume. On the 2nd, turnover was 23.5 billion, on the 4th it surged to 24.6 billion—previously during sideways trading it was just over 12 billion. The volume-driven drop shows real selling pressure, not just a shakeout. The small support at 77,000 has already been broken, 76,000 is a psychological barrier, and below that, supports come one by one at 75,000 and 73,000. The two-month consolidation box has chosen a downward direction.
ETH: No buyers at 2,300, the rebound is a desperate escape
It surged to 2,311 with a long upper wick and then pulled back, still hanging there now. What does this mean? At that level, sell orders crushed down, buyers didn’t follow. The rebound can’t surpass previous highs, each wave is lower than the last—a typical weak structure. ETH is not leading the drop now, it’s following, which is even worse—it shows capital doesn’t even want to allocate here.
ZEC: Single-day -8%, high-level coins start to stampede
A couple of days ago it was the darling of privacy narratives, now a big bearish candle from 1,280 straight down to 1,130. The biggest gainers fall the hardest; this is the fate of high-level coins—profit takers see the market turning and run faster than anyone else. Don’t catch the fall; this first big bearish candle before a halving cut usually isn’t the last. Coincidentally, the $BTC four-year halving cycle exactly aligns with the U.S. midterm election cycle on the same timeline.
Historically in 2014, 2018, and 2022, these three midterm elections all occurred near the end of bear markets. After the midterm elections, there is often one last wave of sell-off and panic liquidation, which marks the cycle bottom, followed by the gradual start of a new bull market. Even more interestingly, the timing of the bottom has been advancing.
In 2014, the bear market bottom was reached 71 days after the midterm election; in 2018, it was 39 days after; and in 2022, the low point came just 13 days after. This can be understood as institutional capital increasing, information transmission speeding up, and risk pricing accelerating. What used to take months of grinding panic is now priced in within weeks or even days.
However, this is a historical statistical pattern, and the underlying drivers of each downturn are completely different. This cycle adds another variable: the election results are directly tied to expectations for crypto-friendly policies. If the control of both chambers changes, regulatory and legislative expectations will rewrite market pricing.
If you often get trapped chasing rallies and selling in dips without clear direction, visit the homepage Study Club to get operational ideas.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $ETH I saw the news about computing power restrictions, and my first reaction was not to look for concept coins, but to calculate the odds: the narrative might heat up, but whether the business can catch it determines if this expected value is worth giving.
According to reports, Nvidia has asked its data center partners to reduce business with Chinese customers, requiring cloud computing clients to sell at least 51% of their services to non-Chinese companies. This only applies to new contracts and does not affect existing agreements. Nvidia has neither confirmed nor denied this.
My judgment is that this is a narrative catalyst for decentralized computing power, but not yet a positive order signal. Existing agreements are unaffected, meaning we cannot directly infer a sudden migration of existing demand; chip usage restrictions do not equate to on-chain computing power being able to replace it. If related projects can prove that computing power is usable and costs are reasonable, I would be willing to raise expectations for demand realization; if it's only conceptual hype, I think it is not worth giving a high valuation. When facing such news, do people value the win rate after order verification more, or do they prefer to bet early on the odds of substitute demand?Tether holds $130 billion in reserves, what is the next step for the six-layer tech stack? At the Lugano Plan ₿ forum, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino used Asimov's "Foundation" series as an analogy to propose a vision far beyond the scope of stablecoins: a six-layer open-source "independent tech stack" covering energy, mining, communications, finance, and artificial intelligence. Behind this grand blueprint lies a massive reserve of about 150,000 bitcoins, $132.4 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, and approximately 150 tons of gold. However, the timing is intriguing: by 2026, the USDT supply has basically stopped growing. Vision backed by reserves Tether's balance sheet has become one of the most closely watched focal points in the crypto industry. The $132.4 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds alone is enough to place it among the world's largest holders of U.S. government debt, comparable to some sovereign nations. The holdings of bitcoin and gold add hard asset diversification, protecting the company from single market volatility. This reserve not only provides credibility endorsement but also funds Ardoino's expansion roadmap. Why shift now? The stagnation of USDT supply is a key signal. For years, Tether's growth has been a proxy indicator of crypto adoption, especially in emerging markets where access to dollars is difficult. But with supply peaking, the company faces a strategic inflection point. Tether seems no longer to rely solely on seigniorage income from stablecoin issuance but positions itself as a diversified technology group. If the six-layer tech stack can beEveryone says, "If the exchange promises full compensation, users will be fine." Brazil's largest exchange Mercado Bitcoin just tested this statement.
On November 2, it was hacked. The exchange itself acknowledged a loss of 36.3 million USD, while the on-chain analysis company Chainalysis estimated 49 million USD. They said users wouldn't lose out and have recovered and frozen about 12.9 million USD.
But as of this morning, withdrawals are still closed with no reopening date. The numbers are all there in the accounts, but you just can't transfer out.
Compensation means "we'll pay you later," while withdrawals mean "can you use it now?" These are two different things. $BTC dropped from 81,000 to 77,000 this week, and those frozen have no choice but to hold.
The most discussed topic in today's intelligence is $HYPE, with the breakdown placed in the poster. To be honest: This round of AI Agent was a dream first told by the funds, and also the first to wake up by the funds.
Last month, the ai16z faction was still airdropping daily, launching a new agent every day, and $AKE was hyped above 0.0047 along with the sector, with KOL tweets outnumbering the code. This week, the trend changed; there was no new story from the large models, and all the money shifted to meme coins and Bitcoin, making small-cap AI tokens the first to be cleared out. No one was dumping, just no one was buying, so the price slid down on its own.
My 0.00474 short position has nothing to do with "being bearish on AI." It was because I saw a rebound climbing back to the high point, a long upper wick on the 1H chart, but volume shrank—the buying pressure was exhausted, and that was the real signal. 20x leverage, stop loss above 0.0048.
Now at 0.00347, it has dropped a full segment. But I am tighter than when I entered: the bottom of narrative coins is made by a wick, not by falling. Once 0.0035 is pierced by a wick, all those waiting to break even above will run, and the shorts will be squeezed.
Until there is new news, I just treat this as the tail end of the retreat. Profiting is luck; knowing when to stop is skill. $BTC $ETH #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？