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#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
On November 3rd, at 5 a.m., Apple delivered its report!
According to Apple's past earnings reports, in the previous one hundred fiscal quarters, Apple exceeded expectations 70% of the time! Apple has beaten expectations for eleven consecutive quarters. The frequent outperformance is because Apple's management guidance tends to be conservative, and Wall Street analysts are used to lowering their expectations accordingly, meaning the market makers control the game and decide whether the results beat expectations.
The current earnings season prediction of a 71% yes is also based on the outcomes of previous earnings seasons. Personally, I believe that a 71% yes prediction is a no-brainer buy.$BTC Binance had an incident last night. The official statement now is that the total estimated impact is about 6.3 billion USD, with approximately 3 billion USD already frozen in cooperation. Users bear their own losses, and deposits and withdrawals are suspended during the security check. The 6.3 billion is an estimate of the total impact, not confirmed losses; the final assessment will depend on their subsequent review.
Bitcoin was dragged down today. It once dropped to around 76,675 in the morning, and the highest reached 81,890, a difference of over five thousand dollars. In the afternoon, the price returned to around 78,000, but the market hasn't closed yet today, so this price is just a snapshot.
76,600 to 77,000 is the low point hammered out today; first, see if it can hold. If it doesn't hold, the next level to watch is whether anyone will catch at 76,500. The rebound needs to first reclaim 80,000; if it can't, it’s just a retracement after the drop. The 81,000 to 82,000 range is where the price surged and then fell today, so resistance remains above.
This incident short-term affects trust in the exchange, not Bitcoin itself. But with deposits and withdrawals suspended and a large portion of coins not yet frozen, selling pressure may not end today. Lighten positions first, wait for deposits and withdrawals to resume, and for the price to stand back above 80,000 before discussing recovery.The Federal Reserve held steady overnight, keeping the interest rate at 3.75% to 4%, with a vote of 10 to 2. Cook and Harker both voted for a rate hike, and in September it was a unanimous 12 to 0.
The statement changed the economy description from solid expansion to strong expansion. The previous sentence about rate hikes helping inflation return to 2% faster was also removed. The Wash press conference gave no forward guidance.
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in December exceeding 85%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 5.025%.
$BTC was around 80,800 when the decision was announced, rose to 81,100 during the press conference, surged to 81,768 at 4 a.m. but was pushed back, now hovering around 81,130, with a funding rate of 0.01%.
Holding steady does not mean easing; the two votes for a rate hike are clear, the December rate hike threat still hangs, and yields are so high. I consider this rally a bounce from the boots dropping, not a trend.
Short-term support is between 80,950 and 81,000; the lower shadows of several hourly candles overnight are around here. Cut losses if it breaks below 80,950.
Resistance above is at 81,450; if the long upper shadow at 81,770 cannot be surpassed, do not chase.The money stolen by the hacker was not all dumped into the market; the ones crashing the market are the bulls themselves.
According to Lookonchain, the attacker sold seven tokens today: UNI, ENA, PEPE, LINK, AAVE, ONDO, and WLD, exchanging them for 70,480 ETH, approximately $158 million; meanwhile, the total liquidation across the network in 24 hours was $1.112 billion, with long positions accounting for $940 million, or 84.5%.
The two numbers make it clear: the $158 million exchanged by the hacker accounts for only 14% of the liquidation amount. I don't quite believe the notion of "hacker dumping the market." The remaining 86% is bulls stepping on themselves; every time a support level breaks, a batch of high-leverage positions gets liquidated, and those liquidations trigger the next wave.
$BTC dropped from 81,000 to 76,640, and the pricing power at this level lies with the leveraged traders, not the hacker. The funding rate turned positive within 48 hours, and the open interest returned to the level of the 29th, which means the deleveraging process is complete; if the funding rate remains negative, it indicates there are still some positions not yet cleared.Brothers, today's pre-market sell-off was a bit scary. Semiconductor, memory, optical communication, and crypto concept stocks all collectively plunged. Intel directly dropped over 25%, instantly dragging down the entire tech sector sentiment.
$MU $SNDK
The root cause lies with Intel itself. The Q4 earnings guidance fell far short of market expectations, compounded by issues at the Israel factory, persistently weak PC demand, and their own AI chips lagging behind. A pile of negative factors stacked up, causing capital to flee immediately. This panic spread outward from the sector, pulling down Micron, AMD, and Nvidia along with it.
Crypto couldn't stay immune either; MSTR and Coinbase both followed the decline. The crypto market generally follows the sentiment of US tech stocks. When tech collapses, risk appetite cools off directly, naturally dragging down Bitcoin and Ethereum.
But it's important to distinguish that this time the trigger was Intel's isolated meltdown, not a total collapse of the entire AI narrative. However, the market is already very sensitive now, so any slight disturbance easily causes a herd sell-off.
Going forward, keep a close watch. If this tech panic spreads further, it will be difficult for the crypto market to stage an independent rebound. During such correlated sell-offs, don't rush to bottom-fish. Sector-wide synchronized declines often have deeper pullbacks than expected, so leverage must be controlled. $SKHYNIX
#亚马逊Q3营收略逊预期，AWS增速达近五年最快水平 Does a large amount of coins held by a big address mean it's a single whale?
When I open the holdings leaderboard and see that the top few addresses hold a large proportion, I continue to investigate the purpose of those addresses rather than directly counting them as a few individual whales.
An address might belong to an exchange custody, a liquidity pool, a lock-up contract, or a project treasury. The balances for different purposes have different control methods and beneficiaries behind them.
Similarly, one holder might use multiple addresses. So even if the address distribution looks dispersed, it doesn't necessarily mean the actual control is dispersed.
I classify addresses with reliable evidence and then look at the remaining ones. For those whose identities cannot be confirmed, I keep them labeled as "unknown" and won't casually tag them just to draw a neat conclusion about concentration.
Even if an address is confirmed as a custody address, it doesn't mean the related risks disappear. Whether economic interests are concentrated and whether operational permissions are concentrated are two separate issues that need to be observed separately.
When you look at coin concentration, do you click on the top addresses to see what exactly is inside?【Quick Comment】Intel plunged 22% overnight, don’t rush to call it a “golden pit” (￣▽￣)~*
The sharp drop after hours isn’t just ordinary emotional selling; it’s more like an alarm from the PC supply chain. Intel’s CEO Chen Liwu bluntly said: PC demand is weak, but memory prices are soaring, and this cost gap might not be filled until the first half of 2027 (╯﹏╰). The market votes with its feet, and the logic is straightforward: AI computing power is popping champagne, while traditional PCs are fixing their roofs.
A couple of years ago, the “storage super cycle” was loudly proclaimed, but now the aftereffects are showing: SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are making huge profits, while downstream PC manufacturers and chipmakers are squeezed by high storage prices. End products aren’t selling, costs can’t come down, and the more they produce, the harder it gets ( •̀ ω •́ )✧.
Therefore, a big drop doesn’t equal a big opportunity. A rebound in a declining sector doesn’t mean a turnaround; where the money flows in the industry chain is the key. Right now, AI computing power and upstream storage are still attracting capital, and the tough days for the traditional PC chain may not be over. Hold your position steady, don’t get carried away, let the flying knives fly for a while first (￣▽￣)ゞ
#英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 For Apple's earnings report this time, I bet it can exceed expectations. Wall Street currently estimates revenue around $113.3 billion, with earnings per share at $1.98.
Personally, I think the possibility of exceeding expectations is quite high.
First is the iPhone. Although every year some say Apple lacks innovation, actual sales remain strong, especially with the new generation iPhone driving replacement demand.
Second is the services business. Revenues from the App Store, iCloud, and others are the real cash cows, with profit margins much higher than hardware sales.
However, I have two concerns.
One is chip supply and memory costs; the other is that Apple's current valuation is already not cheap.
Moreover, last quarter Apple’s revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, yet the stock price still dropped more than 7% the next day.
So this time, I’m more focused not on the earnings numbers themselves, but on management’s guidance for the year-end shopping season.
If the earnings beat expectations and next quarter’s guidance also beats expectations, that would be a true double positive.
Conversely, if it only barely beats expectations and the guidance is conservative, then be cautious about the positive news being priced in.
My judgment is: the probability of a slight beat is higher, but for the stock price to continue rising significantly, Apple needs to deliver results better than market expectations.
What do you think? Can Apple lead a new rally in U.S. tech stocks this time?
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 Potential opportunities for money laundering by customers: a: NFT, staking, lending: pledge black assets to borrow other assets, use the loan for trading, leaving the original dirty money in the collateral contract.
b: Low liquidity pool self-trading: create your own LP pool, black funds buy their own pool, exchanging dirty money for clean coins that appear as "trading profits"
a: May bring great profits to very active DeFi platforms like AAVE, possibly causing a price surge
b: A suddenly popular token may appear on a pump, then this dirty money will buy in, and other addresses will profit and exit
$AAVE Can small capital work, and is it the same for large capital?
When I see a method that yields results with small capital, I don’t simply multiply the profits by ten and imagine how it would perform if the capital were increased tenfold.
Because when the order size grows, the execution conditions might change as well. What used to be filled at one price level might now require consuming several levels; what used to exit quickly might now take longer.
Especially for some opportunities that are inherently small in scale, if more capital participates, the original advantage might be eaten up by transaction costs.
I will re-examine: how much capital this method can accommodate each time, how long execution takes, and how the costs of entering and exiting change. If order splitting is needed, I also consider what might happen to the market during the waiting period.
At the same time, a few small orders completing smoothly does not prove the method is effective. Whether the strategy itself has an edge, and how much capital that edge can support, are two things that both need verification.
When you see profit records from small capital, do you also consider whether it can still be executed under the original conditions when scaled up?What is the outlook for $BTC next?
Detailed analysis of the BTC market gives you the answer
Using 1h and 4h timeframes as examples, analyzing deep market data
Last Friday, the 23rd, saw a long bearish liquidation phase
That day took a lot of hits and lost a lot of money, so it's important to explain
This week's key operation ranges are based on Fibonacci levels, combined with historical high-volume zones and market depth observations to identify quality points, aiming to make it understandable for beginners.
Range 1:
834-784 range with 5000-point space, mainly short at highs and long at lows,
Actual operation range 828-702 with 3600-point space,
Short stop loss at 828-834, long stop loss at 792-784
Reviewing Achen's weekly strategy, all points are reasonable and justified
For example, last night, the price surged to around 820, right at the Fibonacci 0.5 level
The bottom was tested multiple times but did not break the long stop loss line at 792
However, after the hacker incident early this morning
The price dropped to 76444, the normal distribution was disrupted, similar to last Friday
So the next operations will focus on Range 2
Range 2:
792-749 range with 4300-point space, mainly long at lows
Actual operation space and short stop loss depend on the trend
For upward moves, watch the space; for downward moves, watch the timing
The upward space is already there, combined with Range 1
The downward timing is also present, with next week's midterm elections as a key point
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH $HYPE Just checked, the boss has closed his short positions, pocketing millions of dollars
Two short trades, the boss this time is not the "hold to the death" type. BTC 10x full position short, entered at 86195, exited at 81788, 150 coins pocketed about $705,000, a 54.55% return; XRP also 10x full position, from 1.5022 to 1.3132, 1.2 million coins earned about $230,000, a 127.96% return. Total nearly one million dollars.
At this moment, the boss is taking profits, maybe waiting for a new entry opportunity. I've always seen his style as very steady, and he can always enter precisely. His selling might also mean the downtrend won't last long. Looking forward to his new positions, this time I want to follow his rhythm #加密行业协同守护资产安全 #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 I have organized the important dates for next month, November.
November 6 (Friday) 20:30｜US Nonfarm Payrolls (October)
- Employment data, directly affecting December rate hike/cut expectations
- Feature: prone to stop-loss hunting spikes, Friday data, funds reluctant to hold heavy positions over the weekend
November 10 (Tuesday) 20:30｜US CPI Inflation (October)【Most important this month】
- The market's most watched inflation indicator, ETH volatility much greater than BTC
- Feature: volatility trend continuity is relatively better, the priority observation window for options this month
November 19 (Thursday) early morning｜October FOMC Meeting Minutes
- Watch for committee member dissenting views, likely to cause expectation fluctuations, mostly minor disturbances
November 25 (Wednesday) 21:00｜Core PCE Inflation (Fed's preferred indicator)
November 26 (Thursday)｜US Thanksgiving
- US stock market closed, macro liquidity dries up, prone to unbacked spikes, not suitable for opening options
November 30｜GraniteShares 3x Long/Short Crypto ETF effective date
- Sentiment catalyst, weaker than macro data, volatility tends to be mild. The above are purely personal views for reference only.
Mr. Ten, a role model100,000 U is still stuck next door, I really don't have the heart to guess the bottom
First, a possibly controversial statement: this time, don't rush to blame "private key leakage," it looks more like EIP-7702 was exploited. A total of 5.6 billion flowed out on-chain, among which 1.8 billion USDT/USDC were urgently frozen by Tether and Circle, and the hacker still holds about 1.5 billion unfrozen. Withdrawals next door are all halted, CZ said user funds are 100% guaranteed, BTC dipped then pulled back to 81,000.
My 100,000 U is still inside my account. Though anxious, I must not act rashly. I first moved idle assets from other exchanges to a hardware wallet; enabled all possible security settings on other platforms, revoked dormant API authorizations one by one; the rest is waiting for investigation results. I’m not rushing to buy the BTC that dropped because of this.
Losing coins isn’t necessarily due to private key issues, this is more important than bottom fishing.
How much position do you hold on exchanges? I'll answer first: 100,000 U.
$ZEC $ETH $BTC
#US core PCE rose to 3.1% in September, rate hike expectations remain high #加密行业协同守护资产安全 $BTC $ETH $SOL When USDT can be frozen, we should rethink: who exactly owns digital assets?
Recently, news about USDT being frozen has once again sparked discussions in the crypto community.
Many people enter the blockchain world because they believe in a principle: assets should be controlled by oneself, transactions should be more transparent, and individuals should not overly rely on any single institution.
But reality also reminds us of a problem:
When the digital assets you hold can still be restricted from transfer by a centralized issuer, what do you truly own?
To be clear, we should not simply view all freezing actions as malicious.
When funds involve theft, fraud, sanctions, or other illegal activities, freezing measures may serve to protect victims and assist law enforcement.
What truly deserves discussion is a deeper issue:
Do ordinary users clearly understand the control mechanisms of the assets they hold? Who holds the freezing authority? Under what circumstances can it be triggered? Can users understand the reasons, raise objections, and seek reasonable remedies?
These questions should not only be considered when one’s assets become non-transferable. Click the avatar, top right corner 👗
The more BTC falls, the more people buy the dip; the more HYPE rises, the more people short it! In today's market, the biggest fear is picking the wrong side.
$BTC dropped 2.4% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 76,443. But more worth noting than the overall market's rise and fall is the completely different long-short structures of several coins.
First, look at $HYPE — the shorts are truly stunned.
It surged as much as 16% in 24 hours, reaching a high of 96.70. The price rose from 79 to 96, yet the OKX long-short ratio dropped from 2.06 to 0.725, meaning more people are shorting as it rises.
As a result, about $20 million in short positions were liquidated within 24 hours. Coupled with ICE partnership news and increased trading activity, the market was directly pushed upward.
But $UNI is the exact opposite.
The price fell from 7.50 to 6.27, yet the long-short ratio is still 2.07, and 92% of liquidations in 24 hours were longs.
The lower the price falls, the more leveraged longs refuse to admit defeat; this kind of structure fears further downside the most.$PUMP, can the trading heat of attention tokens be converted into sustainable revenue? When the meme coin index weakens, models relying on issuance and trading heat are more vulnerable to liquidity shocks. Short-term trading may bring platform income, but it is important to distinguish between one-time speculation and sustained creators and user retention. If active issuers and repeat trading are stable and the fee mechanism is transparent, operational quality improves; if trading volume plummets as the market declines and token supply expands, the heat itself does not constitute a bottom.18,000 Bitcoins stolen and unrecoverable, the largest hacker attack in crypto history, overturning and destroying the initial consensus on digital currency; analysis and judgment on where Bitcoin BTC is headed
1. Impact of the event: breaking the public's most basic consensus on digital currency
Bitcoin's original core promotion: no third-party custody, cryptographic security, self-controlled assets, and not easily stolen.
This time, 18,000 BTC were stolen and laundered through mixing, making recovery difficult. Coupled with this incident involving a top exchange, linked with Mt.Gox, FTX, and Bybit incidents, it completely shatters ordinary investors' ingrained perceptions:
1. Even leading industry platforms cannot be considered safe asset vaults; the vast majority of ordinary users cannot professionally self-custody with cold wallets. Participation in crypto essentially still relies on centralized institutions.
2. Although the on-chain ledger is immutable, once hackers gain access, they can legitimately sign transfers. Once assets are sent to mixing addresses, tracking, freezing, and recovery become extremely difficult.
3. Market sentiment will naturally link to long-term risks: currently, theft is due to exchange internal control vulnerabilities; in the long term, there are risks accelerated by AI quantum computing breaking elliptic curve cryptography. The combination of these risks will cause investors to reassess whether Bitcoin's "digital gold, safe store of value" narrative is just an idealized assumption.
Objective boundary: The underlying Bitcoin ledger consensus is not destroyed. The Bitcoin network continues to produce blocks, process transactions, and record accounts normally; the immutable ledger code mechanism remains effective. What is destroyed is the shallow consensus of the public on "custody security and asset stable preservation."
2. Short-term market: panic selling + leverage liquidation, the first wave of downward pressure has been released
1. During the news spread phase, retail investors panic withdraw and sell to hedge; contract market longs concentrate liquidations, forming a negative feedback loop of "drop → liquidation → continued dumping," causing BTC to quickly test key support levels.
2. Hackers will not dump all BTC at once; they will sell slowly in batches over a long period through liquidity pools, creating sustained hidden selling pressure and prolonging the downtrend rather than a one-time crash.
3. Institutional response: ETFs and allocation institutions will temporarily reduce risk exposure, pause adding positions, or even start redemptions, causing buying power to shrink rapidly and lack support.
Short-term outlook (1–2 weeks)
- Optimistic scenario: The platform uses SAFU funds to fully compensate, reserves are clear, no bank run occurs, panic is quickly digested, and BTC rebounds and stabilizes after a sharp short-term drop, considered an event-driven correction.
- Neutral scenario: Compensation pressure is huge, rumors of funding gaps persist, combined with options expirations and liquidity tightening, BTC oscillates downward testing previous important support zones.
- Pessimistic scenario: Compensation falls short of expectations, user withdrawals escalate, regulation intensifies rapidly, panic continues to ferment, leading to a deep correction.
3. Mid-term trend (1–3 months): consensus fragmentation and valuation center shift downward, hard to return to previous high premiums
This is the core impact of this event, not just a few days of price swings but a change in valuation logic:
1. Store-of-value premium discounted: Institutions allocate Bitcoin valuing it as a "safe alternative reserve asset." Frequent large-scale thefts will cause institutions to continuously downgrade security ratings, shrinking the premium they are willing to pay. Under the same liquidity environment, Bitcoin’s price center will be lower than before.
2. Consensus group splits:
- Hardcore on-chain believers: insist on self-custody cold wallets, believe the problem lies with exchanges, not BTC itself, and buy the dip;
- Conservative allocators: reduce positions, shift to traditional safe havens like gold and US Treasuries;
- Speculative retail: confidence collapses, exit and watch, no longer bottom-fish easily.
3. Regulatory tightening: This major theft will become a key driver for global regulators to tighten centralized exchange custody, KYC, anti-money laundering, and reserve proof requirements, putting long-term pressure on industry liquidity.
Mid-term core conclusion: Even if there is a rebound, it will be difficult to replicate the previous bull market strength; rebound heights will progressively decrease, characteristic of a "rebound with position reduction" weak market.
4. Long-term direction (multi-year dimension): two watershed moments determine BTC’s ultimate path
Watershed A: Whether the Bitcoin community can successfully complete a post-quantum soft fork upgrade before practical quantum computers arrive
If the signature system upgrade is completed, solving elliptic curve cryptography’s fundamental weakness, Bitcoin will retain its leading digital asset status, though custody security concerns will persist long-term and volatility will significantly increase.
Watershed B: Post-quantum upgrade deadlock, miners, nodes, and exchanges fail to reach consensus
Combined with repeated custody security incidents, the market will continuously price in underlying cryptographic risks, and Bitcoin will gradually downgrade from "digital gold" to a high-risk speculative asset, with the store-of-value narrative thoroughly weakened.
5. Structural differentiation in the sector, new main themes emerge amid crisis
In a market where overall confidence collapses, capital will clearly diverge:
Some funds will completely exit the crypto sector;
Long-term funds remaining will prioritize native quantum resistance, cryptographic agility, and controllable privacy as core criteria for selecting base-layer blockchains. Projects like STRK relying on ZK‑STARK hash base layer, planning independent L1, STRK20 privacy, and BTCFi sector targets will attract differentiated safe-haven capital attention, developing independent narratives distinct from the overall market.
Purely speculative meme coins and tokens without underlying technology will face liquidity exhaustion and brutal clearance.$SNDK's current reports and the actual market feel like different dimensions, or maybe there's a troublemaker. Surpassing expectations but profit-taking causes a short-term sharp drop 🔥 A day's effort brings income, but the market is still testing patience!📉
The hardest moment in trading is not the lack of opportunities, but clearly investing time and energy without seeing returns in the account.
The market remains full of uncertainty. Tonight, focus on the performance of $AAPL. If the US tech sector experiences further pullbacks, market sentiment may be hit again. However, 320 is just a personal target area; whether it reaches that depends on actual movement.
$XAUT and $BZ have not yet presented ideal profit opportunities; in the short term, more patience is needed. Don't rush to blindly increase positions just to reverse the situation.
📊 Additionally, there is major news from the semiconductor market!
SK Hynix's Q3 revenue surpassed 100 trillion KRW for the first time, reaching 104.62 trillion KRW, with operating profit at 83.33 trillion KRW. Demand for AI chips and HBM high-bandwidth memory has become a key driver.
With AI computing power demand continuously growing, does this mean there is another round of opportunity in the semiconductor market?
The more complex the market, the more important it is to control risk and stay calm.
What do you think will happen next: will US tech stocks rebound first, or will the semiconductor sector continue to lead?👇The burn of $UNI suddenly surged 6 times. I just checked Uniswap's on-chain data; on October 29, a total of 182,000 UNI were burned across the chain, compared to only 30,000 the day before, soaring more than 6 times, with a single-day burn value of about $1.23 million.
What's even more interesting is that during the same period, Uniswap's trading volume and protocol revenue also showed significant growth. Many people may not have realized that UNI is now different from before.
Previously, no matter how large Uniswap's trading volume was, the fees were basically earned by LPs, and UNI holders actually found it hard to directly share in the protocol's growth.
But now that the fee switch is turned on, part of the protocol revenue can be converted into UNI burns through the Firepit mechanism.
In other words, the more people use Uniswap and the more money the protocol earns, the more opportunities there are for more UNI to be burned in the long term.
Of course, a single-day burn surge does not mean this level can be maintained every day in the future, as burns are also affected by fee accumulation and third-party claiming rhythms.
One reason I have always been optimistic about UNI is its industry position in the DEX track. Now it is finally not just a governance token but has started to have an actual value capture mechanism.
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 A whale address turned bearish on the market after the Binance hack incident. This long-term whale, holding BTC and ETH long positions for nearly 4 months, just closed a $100 million long position, pocketing a profit of $17.78 million, and immediately opened a short position of 20,000 ETH, with a position value of $44.6 million!
/ At the beginning of July, this address went long 1,000 BTC at $62,353 and long 10,000 ETH at $1,762.
/ Holding the positions for nearly 4 months, influenced by the recent Binance hack, the whale turned bearish on the subsequent market trend, closing all long positions and securing $17.78 million in profits.
/ Immediately after, placed a short order for 20,000 ETH at $2,228, with a nominal value of $44.6 million.
On-chain address:
0x15a4f009bb324a3fb9e36137136b201e3fe0dfdb🚨 Was the exchange hack news really just a trigger for a massive liquidation?
The timing feels suspicious. The news hit during the Asian session, when many traders were asleep, potentially creating the perfect setup to wipe out overleveraged positions.
Was it a genuine security incident or a coordinated market shakeout? No proof yet, but the timing raises questions.
Let's watch the next move. 👀
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoMarket
#DailyOrbit Currently weak consolidation, support at 2100, strong support at 2050; resistance above at 2180-2200.
As long as Binance does not release the positive news of withdrawal resumption, the rebound is likely just a correction, and it is difficult to directly reverse into a major trend.
Today is Friday, some funds will choose to reduce positions before the weekend to avoid risk, making it easy to experience consolidation or continue to test support downward.🚨 Confirmed $630 million heist: North Korean hacker group "TraderTraitor" responsible!
Mastermind: TRM Labs and CNN both confirm the attack originated from the hacker group
Modus operandi: Exploited Ethereum EIP-7702 mechanism, bombarding Binance wallets with 50 authorization attempts, succeeding only once to steal assets
Chain of clues: ZachXBT discovered stolen funds flowing to the same address involved in Bitget's $388 million vulnerability case, suspected to be the same gang
Latest update: Binance's He Yi stated withdrawal functions are expected to resume within 48 hours
Stole the money but became a "global live target"—this operation truly is a "high-IQ crime, low-IQ cash-out"!
#加密黑天鵝 $BTC Discussing Coinbase, it can't always just follow the BTC price.
The company disclosed in Q3 that subscription and service revenue accounted for 49% of total net revenue; the average USDC holdings within products reached $22 billion. This part of the business broadens the perspective for researching Coinbase and brings different influencing factors.
For example, higher interest rates may suppress risk asset sentiment but also affect the economic benefits related to stablecoin reserve yields. For Coinbase, the impact of the macro environment needs to be assessed separately along different revenue sources.
Of course, subscription and service revenue should not be entirely understood as stablecoin interest, nor should it be automatically considered as income without volatility. Business composition, USDC scale, and partnership arrangements all affect the final performance.
But I quite like this change: the platform increasingly has opportunities to meet user demands through multiple services, without having to wait every quarter for spot trading to heat up.
The Deribit integration is worth tracking, and stablecoin and subscription businesses are also worth further analysis. If these business lines can complement each other, operational performance may become more resilient.
So now when I look at Coinbase, I ask less "how much did the coin price rise" and more "which activities are customers keeping on the platform." Being able to continue generating revenue when the market is not so excited better reflects the platform's capability.
#Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？ Today, the US stock market is very likely to open lower and continue to decline, with increasing divergence. The Nasdaq is under the most pressure, while the Dow is relatively more resilient.
Pre-market signals are already very clear: Nasdaq futures once dropped more than 2.3%, S&P 500 futures fell nearly 1.1%, and Dow futures only declined about 0.3%. The main drags come from three areas: Intel's pre-market plunge of nearly 25%, with Q4 guidance completely collapsing and triggering multiple major banks to lower their target prices; memory chip stocks collectively retreating, with SanDisk down over 5% pre-market, SK Hynix, Micron, and Western Digital all weakening simultaneously; Amazon falling more than 7% pre-market after earnings, as cash flow anxiety over AI capital expenditures continues to ferment.
What is more worrisome structurally is that hedge funds are shifting from shorting individual stocks to shorting index ETFs. Short interest in QQQ has recently surged, stock correlations have been pushed higher, and the VIX is accumulating vulnerability to disorderly spikes. This means that if there is a concentrated sell-off during the session, the downward slope at the index level could be steeper than what individual stock divergence suggests.
Tonight, the US Q3 Labor Cost Index and October Chicago PMI are also due to be released. If the data is strong, it will further suppress rate cut expectations. Overall, today is not a "broad crash" scenario, but the strength of the Nasdaq's rebound after a lower open, and whether Intel can narrow its losses after the open, are key observation points to judge whether the sell-off will spread to systemic risk. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 #亚马逊Q3营收略逊预期，AWS增速达近五年最快水平 $$BTC $SNDK "Intel's 22% Plunge Is Just the Appetizer? Storage Price Hikes Are 'Backfiring' on the Entire PC Chain!"
After-hours saw a big bearish candle, with Intel directly hammered down 22%, the market voting with its feet. Executive Chen Liwu also laid it out: PC demand is extremely weak, yet memory prices are still soaring wildly, and this profit gap may not be filled even by the first half of 2027.
The underlying logic is very harsh: AI computing power is popping champagne, while traditional PCs are busy patching a leaky roof.
A couple of years ago, the whole internet was hyping a "storage super cycle," but now the aftereffects have fully erupted. Upstream giants like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are making explosive profits riding the AI dividend; meanwhile, downstream PC manufacturers and chipmakers are being ground down by soaring storage costs. End products aren't selling, costs can't be cut, and the more they produce, the more money they lose.
Trading takeaway:
Don't get itchy to catch a falling knife just because it dropped 22%! An oversold rebound in a declining sector does not equal a trend reversal. The core question is where the money in the industry chain is flowing—AI computing power and upstream storage are still wildly attracting capital, while the traditional hardware chain's tough days are far from over.
Follow the capital flow trend; don't stubbornly fight in a breaking downtrend. Hold your position steady, control your impulses, and don't get carried away! $INTC
#英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
For personal market observation only, not investment advice.SK Hynix and Samsung both reported record-high earnings, yet their stock prices fell. Why?
SK Hynix's Q3 revenue was 104.62 trillion KRW, operating profit 83.33 trillion KRW, exceeding expectations by about 8.3%; large-scale shipments of HBM4, server DDR5 shipments increased over 40% quarter-on-quarter, and both DRAM and NAND average prices rose more than 20%. Samsung's revenue was 195.3 trillion KRW, operating profit 107.4 trillion KRW, with semiconductors contributing 106.5 trillion KRW, but semiconductor profits were slightly below analyst expectations, causing the stock price to drop 4.13% initially.
Demand is indeed strong: SK Hynix said supply shortages may continue until 2030, having signed long-term agreements with 14 customers covering more than half of capacity for 2027-2028; Samsung also believes AI storage demand will exceed supply in 2027.
However, the market is worried about the sentiment triggered by Google: revenue below expectations, huge AI investments, negative cash flow, and a 12.64% drop in stock price. People are starting to worry that tech companies are aggressively building data centers but returns are lagging, and if customers control spending, SK Hynix and Samsung's orders will also be affected.
Therefore: AI storage demand is strong, and the companies are truly profitable, but capital expenditures hang like a sword over them, so the stock prices are under pressure for now. $xGOOGL Looking at crypto prediction markets, if a previously unpopular outcome suddenly gets marked up to 70%, I want to dig into what happened in between. Is there really new information, or is the liquidity pool too shallow so that just a few trades pushed the price up?
Unlike buying Bitcoin and waiting for price changes, here the market is pricing whether a certain event will happen or not. The odds show where the money is flowing, but that doesn't mean the event is actually that certain. I'm quite interested in seeing the transaction process, but just watching the probability alone doesn't reveal who changed their mind.AMD’s Q2 Data Center revenue grew 107% year on year, so the Nov. 3 Q3 report will test whether AI demand is becoming repeatable revenue rather than a single strong comparison. Progress in Instinct chips and Helios systems matters, but the source does not establish deployment pace or cloud-provider conversion. That uncertainty is the real bar for durability.
#AMDQ3HeliosRevenue $ZEC Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted around 1260 - 1280.
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks through 1300.
· Take Profit: First target 1200, second target 1181 (near previous low).
⚠️ Note: Overall in the secondary pullback phase after the rebound, MACD dead cross below zero axis and bearish momentum begins to increase. Do not chase shorts directly, wait for rebound to confirm resistance, use light positions with stop loss.$SNDK Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted around 1280 - 1300.
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks through 1320.
· Take Profit: First target 1261 (near previous low), second target 1240.
⚠️ Note: Overall, it is in the secondary bottoming phase after an extreme plunge, with MACD dead cross below the zero line and strong bearish momentum. Do not chase shorts directly; wait for rebound confirmation of resistance, use light positions with stop loss.It's almost 5 PM, brothers, are you staring at the market so much that you're starting to hallucinate? Don't think there's no action just because Bitcoin isn't moving. Look at the data for these popular altcoins—the leverage underneath is about to explode!
First, look at $PEPE, current price 0.00000493. That spike last night totally tricked people. Now the 4-hour long-short ratio is 2.59, and open interest remains high. Retail traders are battling inside, getting hit from both sides repeatedly. With such a violently spiking market, if you don't have skills, don't jump in—going in is just giving away your money.
Next, $DOGE at 0.0754, the 4-hour long-short ratio has reached an absurd 5.04. The price is steadily declining, but long leverage is piling up to the sky, showing retail traders are stubbornly holding on and even adding positions. Once it breaks the 0.072 support, a chain reaction of liquidations will come.
Finally, $SUI at 0.881 has broken below the 0.9 mark. The long-short ratio is still as high as 2.99, and open interest remains elevated. Retail longs are still holding on desperately. The big players won’t pump until they clean out these leverages.
Summary: The leverage on these popular coins is all crowded on the long side. The main forces are ready to swing the scythe anytime. Control your hands, don’t blindly bottom-fish.
Brothers, do you have DOGE or PEPE during this pullback? Did you cut losses and run or are you holding on?
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Net profit of $719 million, $715 million of which is unrealized gains from held coins: A leading US exchange just released its Q3 report, showing a divergence between book profits and trading business.
Total revenue was $1.216 billion, down 35% year-over-year, roughly flat quarter-over-quarter, slightly below the expected $1.233 billion. Trading revenue was $590 million, down 44% year-over-year and down 1% quarter-over-quarter, but above the expected $527 million. Subscription and services revenue was $570 million, up 3% quarter-over-quarter, accounting for 49% of net revenue. Net profit was $719 million, diluted EPS of $2.51, reversing losses from the previous two quarters, with about $715 million coming from investment gains on held crypto assets. The roughly 39% increase in Bitcoin price in Q3 was a key factor behind these unrealized gains. Excluding investment gains, adjusted net profit was only $78 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $333 million, up 60% quarter-over-quarter. The Q4 guidance for subscription and services revenue is $550 million to $630 million, and as of October 25, Q4 trading revenue is about $165 million.
Personally, I think the highlight of this report is that unrealized gains and subscription business are holding up the numbers, while trading itself has not yet recovered, so the quality of profits is questionable.
Where do you stand: Is profit supported by unrealized gains on held coins considered a real recovery, or does it only count when trading revenue turns positive year-over-year again?
$BTC Will the Democrats taking control of Congress lead to Musk and $SPCX being liquidated?
1. The merger won't be directly stopped, but regulatory investigations and hearings are very likely to happen. Congress only has supervisory and pressuring power; it cannot directly veto mergers. The decision lies with the SEC. A lengthy review will increase merger uncertainty and suppress market speculation expectations.
2. This merger itself relies on a lenient regulatory environment. If the Democrats take power, they will pressure regulatory agencies, focusing on questioning conflicts of interest after the SpaceX and Tesla merger. The market fears indefinite approval delays the most; once expectations weaken, SPCX's premium will quickly fade, dragging down Tesla's valuation as well.
3. Two possible market scenarios: if only one chamber is taken, expect a bearish pulse drop, not suitable for shorting aggressively; if both chambers are taken, it's a strong bearish signal, suitable for shorting SPCX on rebounds and avoiding long positions on Tesla at high levels.
4. Before the election, it's all about expectation games with high market volatility, so avoid heavy bets. If polls favor the Democrats, short SPCX on rebounds; if Republicans hold Congress, regulatory risks ease, and the asset has rebound potential.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 Seeing Core Trader 39 open a new long position on $BTC with 10x leverage, position size 1 BTC, nominal value about $78,400. This trade hasn't concluded yet; I'm more interested in dissecting the risk rules rather than guessing if he knows something. 🤖
If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set it as: if the preset stop loss corresponds to a loss exceeding the single trade budget, then reduce the position or abandon it, rather than triggering a buy just because the wallet opened a long. Roughly calculating based on initial margin, a 1% adverse price movement corresponds to about a 10% margin loss; leverage amplifies judgment errors.
The advantage of this rule is that it limits the cost of mistakes first, but the loopholes are obvious: the stop loss price is not the execution price, slippage may cause actual losses to exceed the budget; the data also doesn't provide his stop loss or other positions, so we can't judge the full intent by looking at this trade alone. My reminder to myself is to clearly write the exit conditions first, then study the entry signals.The real concern about Binance's recent security incident is not the $6.3 billion
Today, Binance announced a major security incident, with a preliminary estimated impact of about $6.3 billion, and approximately $3 billion of assets have been frozen so far.
Binance stated that it will cover all losses through the SAFU fund and the company's own funds.
However, I believe the biggest impact on the market from this event is not just the financial loss, but trust.
Many people entering the crypto space first choose an exchange. Now that even one of the largest trading platforms in the industry has experienced such a security incident, ordinary investors will inevitably reconsider where to place their assets.
In the short term, market sentiment will be difficult to recover immediately.
But I am also paying attention to another direction: if more funds start to value self-custody and on-chain trading, will the DEX sector receive new attention as a result?
Next, we will focus on observing Binance's security investigation, the progress of fund freezing, and whether BTC can stabilize.
The market can endure a crash, but trust takes time to repair.Today (October 30), the Japanese stock market displayed a very extreme "sell heavyweights, buy domestic demand" divergent pattern. The Nikkei 225 index plunged more than 1900 points intraday, breaking below the 63,000 mark, and finally closed down 2.12% (down 1369.36 points) at 63,290.11, ending its previous consecutive gains. Despite the deep index decline, 51% of stocks in the TOPIX Prime market rose, indicating that funds did not withdraw across the board but were actively rotating and switching stocks.
Today's capital in the Japanese market mainly focused on the following directions:
🚨 Semiconductor and AI Industry Chain: Hit by a series of external earnings shocks
After-hours earnings reports from Intel and Amazon in the U.S. revealed huge capital expenditure pressures, triggering strong market doubts about the return cycle of AI investments. Panic sentiment directly hit Japanese semiconductor heavyweight stocks.
· Core leaders plunged: Semiconductor testing giant Advantest fell 5.86%, Tokyo Electron dropped 5.2%, and these two stocks alone dragged the Nikkei index down by about 731 points.
· Hardware and materials sharply declined: AI packaging substrate giant Ibiden faced pressure on Intel order expectations, hitting the daily limit down intraday and closing down 15.21%; inspection equipment maker Lasertec fell 8.81%; SoftBank Group dropped over 6%; storage leader Kioxia also fell 7.14%.
✈️ Defensive and Domestic Travel Demand: The absolute mainstay for risk-averse funds
Against the backdrop of heavy tech stock sell-offs, sectors with defensive attributes and independent domestic demand logic strengthened against the trend, becoming key to maintaining market profitability.
· Transportation sectors led gains: Stocks related to travel and logistics attracted clustered funds, with air, sea, and land transport sectors leading the gains. ANA Holdings surged 6.31%, and shipping and logistics stocks generally closed higher against the trend.
· Retail and leisure consumption: Benefiting from a relatively strong yen exchange rate and domestic consumption expectations, the retail sector performed strongly, with Oriental Land (operator of Tokyo Disneyland) rising 8.45%.
🎮 Individual Stocks Exceeding Earnings Expectations: Independent rallies against the trend
In a weak market, earnings realization became the strongest certainty pursued by funds.
· Konami: Due to strong performance of main IPs like "eFootball" and "Yu-Gi-Oh!", the company significantly raised its full-year earnings guidance (operating profit forecast raised from ¥143 billion to ¥193 billion), with its stock soaring 15.02% to a record high, becoming the top gainer among Nikkei 225 components.
· Other stocks exceeding expectations: Water engineering company Metawater hit the daily limit up (+23.3%) due to earnings and dividend upgrades; Mars Group Holdings announced a large-scale buyback, with its stock surging 9.7%.
💡 Macro and Policy: Bank of Japan decision and ETF sales
The Bank of Japan maintained interest rates unchanged at today's policy meeting, basically meeting market expectations, with the rate decision passed by an 8-1 vote. However, the bank also announced it will increase the annual scale of ETF sales from about ¥330 billion to about ¥860 billion starting January next year. Although this news caused some intraday disturbance, the market did not interpret it as a fatal liquidity tightening, and the decline narrowed toward the close.
Overall, today's Japanese stock market used the semiconductor equipment plunge to complete a "catch-down" to the negative U.S. AI earnings reports, while the strong rallies in Konami, Oriental Land, ANA, and other domestic demand and consumer stocks achieved an extreme sector rotation and style rebalancing.
Would you like to learn more about a specific stock that exceeded earnings expectations or the subsequent risk points in the Japanese semiconductor industry chain? 【Black Swan? Where is the support? Recharge your faith!】
Objective market: The 7.5 area is strong support. 7.94 is the current resistance.
Subjective: Although I've been bearish for over a month and keep saying that the big cycle BTC will still go down to 6, the 75-76 range is objectively a major support. I don't think it can break down directly.
Today, everyone is flooding with bad news. Some see 7w, some see 6w. But do you still remember yourself shouting to enter at 78 when BTC was above 8w?
Don't panic! Respect the objective market~
Operation advice:
For short positions above 8, just move the stop loss to around 795. You can continue to reduce positions around 76.
If tonight the second test of the 75-76 area does not break (and is accompanied by certain volume), you can try to go long with a stop loss at 7.5 or the low point of the spike at that time. Stop loss about 1000 points. Take profit above 2000 points, ultimately aiming for around 7.9. The risk-reward ratio is also appropriate. 【Only enter after breaking below and recovering 75, or after a volume spike and consolidation around 76! There is no entry opportunity if it directly crashes through 75!】
Plan your trades, trade your plan!~
$BTC #加密行业协同守护资产安全 $INTC When trading, you must understand one thing: events are the fuse for trends. Many people think that the hacker theft caused the big dip, or that Intel's poor earnings report caused the after-hours plunge. Essentially, they look for bad news when prices fall and good news when prices rise.
This viewpoint is wrong. Take Intel as an example. I posted an analysis of Intel during the session, warning that Intel's trend was weak and started shorting. First, everyone needs to understand one principle: large institutions conduct very thorough research on listed companies. They roughly understand the earnings report before it is released. The most direct evidence is that Wall Street's revenue forecasts for a company and the actual revenue usually don't differ much.
Under this premise, institutions will have a rough guess about Intel's earnings report in advance—it could be good or bad. If it's bad, they will sell off some positions early to hedge, which will show as weakness in the price movement. I warned early that Intel needed to rebound to 96.67 to possibly find a bottom. If Intel were really strong, it would have easily reached 96.67 during the recovery from Monday to Wednesday. Failing to reach that level more or less indicates that institutions' expectations for the earnings report are not high. Since institutions have a higher success rate than us, even if you don't short, there's no reason to go long.$INTC
Eight consecutive quarters of earnings beating expectations, then a drop of more than 20% overnight. Intel's Q4 guidance dragged down the chip and storage sectors in pre-market trading.
Q3 itself was flawless: adjusted EPS of 52 cents, while the market expected just over 40 cents; revenue of $16.5 billion, up 20% year-over-year, also beating expectations for eight consecutive quarters. The problem lies in the next quarter—revenue guidance of $15 to $16 billion, while Wall Street was expecting $17 billion; EPS guidance of 25 cents, with an expectation of 43 cents. The shutdown of the Israeli factory will also cost $300 million in revenue. The company itself says the PC market will shrink 12% this year and shrink another 10% next year.
Despite beating expectations for eight quarters, the stock price does not reward the past. It fell from $92 to $73 overnight, and the INTC token on OKX is now at 67.8, with a low of 67.37, even worse than the pre-market US stock price. The storage sector also fell broadly in pre-market trading, with SanDisk and others taking a hit.
Such a big pit caused by single-quarter guidance carries emotional pricing for the first three days and is not reliable. The real test will be when the US stock market opens tonight; the pre-market price is just a reading of the announcement.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Today (October 30), the South Korean stock market experienced a systemic plunge triggered by the "Alphabet shock" from the U.S. stock market. The KOSPI index plunged over 5% intraday, triggering the sell-side "Sidecar" circuit breaker, and closed down 3.48% at 5730.74 points, falling below 5800 points; the KOSDAQ index simultaneously dropped 3.83% to 724.38 points. Semiconductor heavyweight stocks were heavily sold off, while capital underwent intense structural reallocation amid extreme panic.
📉 Semiconductor sector became the hardest hit in the sell-off
Overnight, Alphabet plummeted 12.6% due to a surge in AI capital expenditures and negative free cash flow, sparking market doubts about the sustainability of AI investment returns. Panic quickly spread to the South Korean semiconductor sector, which is highly sensitive to AI computing power.
· SK Hynix closed down 7.08% at 1.418 million KRW, with intraday losses nearing 9.5%.
· Samsung Electronics closed down 3.02% at 225,000 KRW, with intraday losses reaching 6.68%.
· Industry chain: Samsung Electro-Mechanics plunged 7.50%, SK Square fell 5.88%; KOSDAQ semiconductor equipment and materials stocks **Symtek (-8.02%), Wonik IPS (-7.72%), Jusung Engineering (-6.78%)** suffered severe declines.
💰 Significant net outflow of foreign capital and domestic funds stepping in
The capital flow showed a clear confrontation pattern:
· Foreign investors net sold about 1.617 trillion KRW, with SK Hynix net sold by 429 billion KRW and Samsung Electronics net sold by 213.4 billion KRW.
· Individuals and institutions combined net bought over 1.36 trillion KRW, with pension funds buying 892.9 billion KRW throughout the day, becoming a key force in preventing further index collapse.
🛡️ Counter-trend highlights: pharmaceutical biology and some defensive sectors
While semiconductors collapsed across the board, funds flowed into sectors with defensive or independent catalysts:
· The pharmaceutical sector closed up 4.9% against the trend. Samsung Biologics surged 8.86% to 1.487 million KRW; Hanmi Pharmaceutical and Celltrion also ranked among the top institutional net buys.
· LG Energy Solution rose 0.98% against the trend; some secondary battery stocks showed relative resilience amid the plunge, limiting the downside of the index.
· Traditional defensive sectors rose slightly: transportation and storage +1.33%, food, beverage, and tobacco +1.08%, textiles and apparel +1.04%, electricity and gas +0.74%.
Summary: The core logic of today’s Korean stock market is the "AI computing power bubble deflation" combined with "earnings realization game." Semiconductor heavyweight stocks were sharply sold off under external shocks and foreign capital outflows, triggering a negative feedback loop of programmatic selling; meanwhile, pharmaceutical biology, secondary batteries, and traditional defensive sectors absorbed the risk-averse funds withdrawn from tech growth. The market is reassessing the return cycle of AI capital expenditures and is highly dependent in the short term on whether U.S. tech giants can halt their declines during regular trading hours tonight.$ETH
On the same afternoon, two giant whales were opposing each other, and at times like this, I usually don't take sides. On-chain monitoring showed that one address held a long position for several months with an unrealized profit of over 20 million USD, then reversed to open a 20x short position of 13,000 ETH; another address switched from short to long, with a long position of over 11 million USD open. 58bro sold 8,000 ETH in one hour, worth just over 18 million USD.
What does 20x mean? A 2% drop would wipe out the margin. Those who dare to leverage this much either really have some insider information or are just betting on short-term moves. The one switching from short to long isn't innocent either; both sides are holding large margins and betting against each other, turning the price into a tug of war.
Actual test on OKX shows the current price at 2228, down nearly 4% in 24 hours, with a low of 2171. The funding rate is already negative 0.75 basis points, meaning shorts are paying longs; contract open interest is 647,000 ETH, about 1.44 billion USD. Despite the price drop over several days, positions haven't shrunk much, and holders are still in.
Last time I copied a whale's trade, I ended up on the wrong side when they closed their position. Since then, I've learned my lesson. When whales fight each other, small fish should avoid standing in the middle.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 The undefeated hunter on the $ETH chain has opened a new position.
Address 0xe813 just took on 25x leverage and directly swept over $45 million worth of $ETH long positions.
Retail investors are still hesitating whether to cut losses and wait for a lower point, while the big players daring to bet heavily have already started betting on a rebound.
Daring to move such a position at this level clearly shows confidence that it can't be crushed in the short term.
#ETH
$ETH
👇#StrategyQ3ProfitSurges Is Intel's 22% plunge just the beginning? Storage price hikes are backfiring across the entire PC chain
After-hours saw a big bearish candle, with Intel directly slammed down 22%, the market voting with its feet. Chen Liwu also laid it out: PC demand is weak, but memory prices are soaring wildly, and this gap might not be filled even by the first half of 2027.
The essence is simple—AI computing power is popping champagne, while traditional PCs are fixing the roof. In the past two years, everyone talked about the “storage super cycle,” but now the aftereffects have arrived: upstream players like Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are making huge profits, while downstream PC manufacturers and chipmakers are being ground down by high storage costs. End products aren’t selling, costs won’t come down, and production is becoming increasingly painful.
So, don’t get itchy to catch the falling knife just because of the big drop. A rebound in a declining sector doesn’t mean a reversal; where the money flows in the industry chain is the key. AI computing power and upstream storage are still attracting capital, and the tough days for the traditional PC chain may not be over yet. Hold your position steady, don’t get carried away. #IntelQ4EarningsGuidanceBelowExpectations, stock price plummets $INTC $PEPE Intel's earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock plunged 23% after hours
Q3 revenue was $16.5 billion, up 21% year-over-year, adjusted EPS was $0.52, far exceeding the expected $0.40
Data center and AI revenue was $7.3 billion, up 78% year-over-year, marking the strongest growth in 15 years
Regular close was $92.07, down 3.62%, after-hours dropped to $70.87 at one point, implying a market cap loss of over $112 billion
The culprit is next quarter: Q4 revenue guidance is only $15 billion to $16 billion, with expectations at $17 billion
Adjusted EPS guidance is $0.25, expected was $0.43, gross margin guidance is 38%, expected 42.8%
An explosion at the Israel factory will cost about $300 million in revenue this quarter, lowering gross margin by 2 percentage points
PC business revenue was $8.1 billion, down 5% year-over-year, the company openly states weakness will last at least until mid-2027
Even harsher is the statement: no positive cash flow next year, and capital expenditures will be significantly increased again in 2027
I think this is not a miss on earnings, but the market repricing "burning cash to expand production + demand peaking"; the invalidation point is if tonight's regular trading narrows the decline to within 10%, or if there is a substantial rebound signal in PC orders
Bottom out now or wait for guidance to be disproved?
$INTC $AMD $DELL
#英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 Binance hacker split 18,270 $BTC (about $1.4B) into 19 wallets, 17 of them with exactly 1,000 each, and none has moved since Thursday night. Yet $445M of longs were liquidated in 24h vs only $85M of shorts. So the dip is driven by leverage, not by stolen coins. What do you think moves $BTC next: more liquidations or the first transfer from those wallets?PCE 3.6%, Binance anomaly, $1.5 billion liquidations across the network: dissecting the full chain of BTC's early morning crash
This round of BTC's rapid dip to the 77,000 level in the early morning is a complete downward chain driven by macro bottoming, black swan trigger, and leverage amplification. The US September PCE inflation came in at 3.6%, with inflation stickiness exceeding expectations. The market repriced the Fed's rate cut delay expectations, US Treasury yields came under pressure and rose, risk asset valuations were suppressed in advance, and BTC had already entered a fragile state of weak oscillation from above 81,000, laying the groundwork for the subsequent sharp drop.
The real trigger was Binance's hot wallet anomaly involving billions in asset transfers out. The platform urgently suspended deposits and withdrawals to investigate security vulnerabilities. Exchange security panic spread rapidly, spot safe-haven funds fled en masse, and BTC quickly broke below the 80,000 psychological level. After breaking this level, the leverage liquidation chain fully activated, with total liquidations across the network approaching $1.5 billion, the vast majority being long positions. Forced liquidation programs automatically sold, creating a long-short feedback loop that further amplified the retracement. Altcoins fell far more than the market, with small-cap narrative coins like CORE and FOGO experiencing especially volatile swings.
The hierarchy to clarify: PCE inflation data is the underlying pressure, determining the market's already weak upward momentum; Binance's security incident is the sudden detonator breaking the balance; the $1.5 billion level long liquidations are the core amplifier that rapidly hammered the price down.
In summary: macro data made the market fragile, the exchange black swan ignited the sell-off, and leverage liquidations completed the final deep plunge.Approximately $1.49 billion in forced liquidations within 24 hours, with longs taking $1.29 billion, accounting for 86.8%. Over 240,000 accounts were wiped out. Bitcoin alone accounted for $475 million, Ethereum $331 million.
Within one hour, $629 million was liquidated, almost entirely longs. The largest single order remembered was a BTC long on Binance for about $11.09 million. The price is still hovering around 78033.5 and 2229.6, and many feel "after the dump, it should stabilize."
My view is the opposite: liquidations of this scale look more like clearing out leveraged positions, which doesn’t mean spot buying has returned. Do you think the next wave will be shorts covering, or longs adding leverage again?