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Trezor CEO says buying BTC ETFs is not the same as truly owning BTC. As ETF sizes grow, is this a warning about risks or a denial of institutionalization? 1. News. According to public reports, Trezor CEO Matěj Žák stated that BTC ETFs offer convenience, but investors do not have control over private keys, so it differs from directly holding BTC. Meanwhile, Mercado Bitcoin confirmed a security incident involving about $46 million and suspended withdrawals, prompting the market to again discuss the risk boundaries between custody and self-custody. BTC is priced at $77,091.9, down 4.3% in the past week. 2. Capital impact. The latest BTC ETF disclosure shows a single-day net inflow of $34.1 million, a 5-day net inflow of $406.5 million, and a 10-day net inflow of $173.6 million. ETFs remain an important channel for institutions to enter BTC, and the capital scale has not disappeared; however, ETF shares, custody arrangements, and redemption mechanisms mean investors bear product structure risk rather than direct coin-holding risk. 3. BTC implications. Institutionalization has increased BTC accessibility but has not eliminated counterparty risk. Exchange incidents remind the market that convenience, liquidity, and control cannot all be maximized simultaneously. ETFs suit funds that require securities accounts and compliant channels, while self-custody suits holders emphasizing control; these are not the same risk products. 4. Observation indicators. I will next monitor four indicators: first, whether core ETFs continue to have net inflows; second, ETF premiums and redemptionsCapital and Macroeconomics
The core driver of this rebound is sentiment recovery rather than capital returning. The expectation of a Democratic Party sweep in the midterm elections has eased regulatory concerns in the crypto industry. Trump has stated he will respect the election results, the market holds hope for the resumption of peace talks with Iran, and 10x Research head Thielen bluntly said, "Bitcoin is currently oversold and should rebound." However, Democratic control of Congress is unfavorable for pro-crypto legislation, and regulatory uncertainty remains unresolved.
The order book structure remains a risk: previously, the 15-minute buy-sell ratio dropped as low as 0.22, with sell orders clearly dominant. The sell order at 77,327 accounts for 49.1% of the total sell volume, and the shallow order book amplifies short-term volatility. Whether the volume of the V-shaped rebound is genuine depends on sustained buying above 78,500 to confirm it. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 Last night, there was a direct major turnaround in both houses of Congress. Wall Street has actually already started quietly pricing in the new rules. Do you think the market is scared or secretly relieved by this change of power?
To put it simply, the White House will find it much harder to pull off big moves going forward. The previously biggest concerns about reckless borrowing and blind tax cuts are very likely to be blocked, and the Federal Reserve's independence is actually preserved. This kind of bipartisan gridlock, although it slows policy progress, at least helps the financial market avoid many of the worst pitfalls.
What’s next?
The US stock market definitely won’t just crash unilaterally; it will become polarized and fragmented. AI computing power will face stricter scrutiny in the short term, so things might get tough. But sectors relying on policy support like new energy and medical insurance subsidies might actually rebound.
The crypto space will suffer. With the Democrats controlling the Senate Banking Committee, the previously hoped-for regulatory easing is completely off the table. Compliance costs will only rise, so don’t expect any policy tailwinds to boost the market anytime soon. The market mainly depends on whether the macro faucet opens or not.
As for the turnaround in US Treasury yields and the surge in gold, it’s all capital seeking safe havens. Since policy frictions are increasing, physical assets definitely look more attractive.
Do you think the Federal Reserve will speed up or slow down rate cuts because of this election?
DYOR
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The cost of taking the wrong political side is that the market votes with its feet.
In this election, Musk spent heavily supporting the Republican Party. Now, the Democrats have taken control of both chambers. What does this mean? This is called "a new official's first three fires," and most likely, this fire will burn Musk. $SPCX $TSLA
As shown in the picture, before the election, the Democrats had already hinted at investigating him and government contracts. Now that they hold power, Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) will inevitably face stricter regulatory scrutiny, and those high-value government contracts between SpaceX and the Department of Defense will likely be examined under a magnifying glass.
Capital fears this kind of uncertainty the most. Even if the market is recovering, funds will first avoid such "high-risk targets." So while others rebound, he plunges—this is entirely due to the surge in regulatory risk premium.
This also serves as a reminder for us: the same applies in the crypto world. Now that the Democrats have full control, whether our over 200 million in political donations will buy us goodwill is still unknown, but the expectation of tighter regulation is definitely on the way. Don't catch these politically risky flying knives; keep your cash steady and wait until the overall environment becomes completely clear.For the crypto community, BTC is the most sensitive to liquidity expectations. Often, prices will trade in anticipation of interest rate cuts or easing before the actual funds have truly entered. Conversely, if employment data is strong and rate hike expectations rise again, short-term volatility will also be significant. #Solana稳定币卡月消费额创新高 Data shows that the monthly spending volume of Solana ecosystem stablecoin cards reached $141 million in October, a sevenfold year-on-year surge, setting records for four consecutive months, indicating continuous acceleration in on-chain payment adoption. The core advantage lies in Solana's fast transfers and low fees, making it suitable for stablecoin daily payments. Combined with multiple crypto card products and cashback promotions attracting users, it opens channels from USDC and USDC to Visa/Mastercard merchants, allowing on-chain assets to be directly used for offline consumption, representing a genuine user adoption signal.
However, the market needs to distinguish that this spending volume mainly flows to card issuing service providers and will not directly convert into SOL block rewards. The short-term benefits are more emotional. At the same time, regulatory variables must be faced; if US crypto regulation tightens, such payment services are likely to face compliance constraints. Additionally, industry competition is fierce, with Ethereum and Polygon also developing similar payment cards, so the growth is not an exclusive benefit.
In terms of market trends, this data is a long-term fundamental positive factor but is unlikely to independently drive a major surge in SOL price. The price mainline still follows the overall market, interest rate expectations, and capital sentiment. Future focus will be on tracking user retention, transaction frequency, and regulatory policy changes to judge whether the payment sector can continue to scale.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The most dangerous thing when a rebound approaches the next barrier is to treat the target price as a pass.
Caleb expects $BTC to first test liquidity near 79,000, then possibly face resistance and retest 77,600; he will not change the overall plan until the daily candle closes back above 81,000. This is his conditional path, not a sequence of three price levels that will all be realized, nor is it a market movement that has already occurred.
Kraken quotes about $78,527, which has not yet reached his mentioned upper observation level. My personal market observation is to not write the latter half of the market story yet: if after a spike the hourly close cannot hold and the rebound lacks strength, I will increase caution for a retest; if the upper level is effectively reclaimed and the pullback holds, then "inevitable resistance" can no longer be used as a reason. Larger cycle adjustments require looking at daily conditions separately.
My judgment is that short-term continuation of the rise and mid-term strengthening require different evidence. For now, I do not chase untriggered targets, nor do I prematurely short just because a retest might happen. Repeated boundary tests most easily consume capital; I prefer to do less rather than maintain original judgments by expanding tolerance. When reaching the observation level, will you first look at the hourly close or wait for the pullback to be supported? This is just for exchanging views and does not constitute investment advice.Old Leek Observation｜$RUNE: Rebounded nearly 15% after halt, is this a bottom-fishing opportunity?
THORChain recently experienced a multi-chain transaction suspension. On October 31, Ethereum underwent a block reorganization, causing an issue with THORChain's refund logic where a 10 ETH deposit was refunded twice, triggering automatic risk control and suspending multiple cross-chain transaction routes.
On November 4, after the v3.21.1 update, most cross-chain transactions resumed, and RUNE rebounded accordingly.
Market snapshot: price around $0.63, 24-hour increase about 13%, 7-day performance still nearly flat
Market cap about $207 million, 24-hour trading volume about $191 million, TVL about $62.37 million
This rebound has clear catalysts, but I do not think it can be directly interpreted as a fundamental reversal.
There are three reasons:
First, recovery does not mean full recovery.
Currently, networks like $ATOM, BSC, and $SOL are still suspended, and some nodes have not completed upgrades.
Second, THORChain's transaction volume needs quality assessment.
Q3 cross-chain transaction volume was about $3.82 billion, but some transactions were affected by hacker fund flows. Abnormally large funds cannot be directly counted as healthy user growth.
Third, RUNE's value capture mechanism has changed.
The protocol's own liquidity receives 20% of system revenue distribution, while RUNE's direct burn ratio has dropped from 5% to 1%.Judging the cycle phase, the best signals are: bullish moves that can't push higher and bearish moves that can't push lower.
Bullish moves that can't push higher:
Trump's SOL token issuance, volume increases but price doesn't rise, then peaks;
Micron reports nearly 90% gross margin, cycle peak surges then falls back.
Bearish moves that can't push lower:
FTX collapse, ETH holds previous lows;
MSTR sells BTC, slight dip then price holds;
US tech stocks collectively crash + major exchange hacker black swan, BTC only drops 5%.
The reason is simple: sellers are exhausted
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 As a leading stablecoin company, Circle's core foundation is USDC, relying on interest from reserve assets as its main source of income. This third-quarter earnings report exceeded overall expectations, with revenue, net profit, and adjusted EBITDA all showing positive growth, and on-chain ecosystem activity continuing to rise. This quarter, the average circulating supply of USDC was $73.3 billion, up 8% year-over-year, and on-chain transaction volume surged 49% year-over-year. Institutional trading demand remains strong, the company's overall profitability has significantly improved, short-term fundamentals are resilient, and market sentiment is supported.
However, beneath the surface of high growth, the core issue in the earnings report is very clear: the main business revenue growth is weak, and high growth relies on one-time income to support it. Core stablecoin reserve income declined 8% year-over-year, impacted by falling U.S. Treasury yields. Even with USDC scale expansion, it cannot offset the profit pressure caused by interest rates, and the traditional stablecoin profit model continues to weaken. The exceptionally high EBITDA growth this quarter mainly depends on a one-time income of $182 million from the ARC token presale, not sustained growth from the main business, so the real profit quality is far less impressive than the data suggests.
Overall, declining interest rates suppress core profit, the company's performance heavily depends on non-recurring income, making valuation difficult to sustain at higher levels, but there is some short-term upside potential. $CRCL #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ $CRCL
864.9 million USD revenue, 226 million net profit, USDC on-chain transaction volume up 49% year-over-year. Circle's Q3 report looks impressive no matter the year.
The pre-market reaction in US stocks is +3%.
On OKX, the CRCL token is moving more aggressively than the underlying stock. It opened at 72.61 and is now at 77.03, up 6.1%. The 19:00 hourly candle had 121,600 contracts, compared to just 26,000 in the previous one, a volume increase of four and a half times that pushed the price from 76.26 up to 78.17.
I'm more concerned about two other numbers. The position size is only 33.17 million USD, and this single volume traded nearly 30% of the chips. The fee rate is 0.0359%, which is three and a half times the 0.01% baseline, indicating bulls are paying up to chase.
A thin pool plus high fees means the price rises fast but also falls fast. I don't touch this kind of stock. It's not that I don't believe in Circle's business, but I can't stand a market where nearly 30% of the position turns over in one candle.
I trust the financial report, but I won't chase the price.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC
Washington fired two shots at crypto today, yet BTC actually touched the daily high.
The probability of the CLARITY Act passing in its current form is now close to zero, and the Senate Banking Committee might even fall under Warren's control. On the other side, the list of issuers opposing tokenization has grown to 59, including Apple, Home Depot, and GE Vernova. A $64 million political donation also couldn't stop Sherrod Brown from being elected.
Three months ago, these news would have been enough to crash the price by $2,000.
The order book is at 78,651, 24-hour high at 78,725.5, +1.9%. At 7 PM, there were 157,000 contracts, at 6 PM, 254,000 contracts; volume shrank by 40% but the price still pushed up. Open interest is 2.793 billion, slightly higher than 2.76 billion at 6 PM. The fee rate is 0.0073%, below the 0.01% benchmark.
Price recognizes money, not legislation. The legislative path is dead, but leverage is not.
At 8 AM, the price dropped to 75,690; I took it as a one-time election panic pricing and didn't move after writing. Now it seems it didn't fall further, but I don't have the courage to add positions either. This kind of uneventful market is the easiest to make people impulsive.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Here's something about the carved boat analogy
Historically, every major Bitcoin dip bottoms out shortly after the midterm elections
2014: Bitcoin bottomed 71 days later, at a price of $170
2018: Bitcoin bottomed 39 days later, at a price of $3,200
2022: Bitcoin bottomed 13 days later, at a price of $15,500
From $170 to nearly $20,000 in 2017: an increase of over 100 times.
From $3,200 to $64,000 in 2021: a 20-fold increase.
From $15,500 to $126,000 in 2025: an 8-fold increase.
Just looking at this data alone, it does seem true and factual, and you might think it's impressive.
But if you break down each instance carefully, you'll find that the direct cause of each bottoming has basically nothing to do with the midterm elections.
For example, the bottom 13 days after the 2022 midterms was directly caused by the sudden collapse and bankruptcy of FTX the day after the election, triggering a chain of liquidations.
The fundamental driving force behind Bitcoin is the "four-year halving cycle," not the midterm elections.
However, this data actually implies another more important trend:
The returns are sharply diminishing (from 100x → 20x → 8x), and with the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, volatility is significantly narrowing. The market structure and the pattern of the previous three one-sided crashes through the end of the year are no longer exactly the same.
So, what do you think will happen after the 2026 midterm elections?The boot has dropped. The election is one-sided, the opponent has conceded, and the biggest question mark in the market is gone.
Many people see this day as a positive: uncertainty eliminated, risk appetite returning.
But that's not what I see. The end of the election is not the end of risk, but the beginning of a logic re-evaluation. What was priced in over the past two years was "political noise"; what will be priced in next is the speed at which the new government takes action.
The first part is liquidation.
When a new government takes office, the first batch to be dealt with is often not external opponents. Companies deeply tied to old policies and living off policy arbitrage, especially certain targets in tech and energy, will face compliance reviews, fines, and executive reshuffles. This kind of risk doesn't show up in financial reports, nor will it give early warnings on the K-line; the only way is to avoid it.
I won't touch it. It's not bearishness; it's that this money isn't mine to make.
The second part is geopolitics. The old government's cards have been played; during the handover period, external conflicts might cool down, and the war premium on crude oil might dissipate. But don't be too sure—the handover period is precisely when "one last gamble" is most likely, with volatility jumping first and prices following.
The third part, and the core this time: AI.
The new government's base is lawyers, doctors, and traditional media—those hit hardest by AI. They voted and expect returns, so policies to restrict AI are an open secret.
But here's a deadlock: if they really clamp down, the current AI valuations in the US stock market can't hold—that's not a correction, it's systemic risk; if they don't act, the base won't accept it.
So don't expect overt "AI suppression" policies. More likely is no ban, but a slowdown in R&D and capital expenditure pace.
The most dangerous thing is not policy, but expectations.
As soon as the market starts to believe "AI investment will slow down," the Nasdaq bulls will stampede themselves first. This stampede has nothing to do with fundamentals but with leverage—after two years of gains, positions are heavy; whoever runs first survives.
So my move isn't to guess policy but to protect the bulls first. Buying put options and making collars—the cost is certain, but liquidation is uncertain. I'm willing to pay that price.
Where will the money go?
If Western AI R&D really slows down, the beneficiaries won't be the American second-tier AI companies telling stories, but those with fewer compute constraints, lower costs, and still committed to open source. The path of domestic large models in recent years is clear: not competing on parameters, but on efficiency.
This sector will receive excess liquidity. Conversely, those overseas second-tier AI companies with exorbitant costs, surviving on rounds of financing, constrained compute, and no fundamental breakthroughs will have to reprice. Repricing means downwards.
The last scenario I don't want to write but must prepare for.
If the power transition is unstable or extreme confrontation occurs, it's no longer about sector rotation. Gold and long-term US bonds move first, volatility goes crazy, then risk assets are indiscriminately sold off.
In such times, cash is not conservative but ammunition. After the liquidity crisis passes, the first to pick up assets will be those who still have money.
One thing I've learned these years: staying alive is more important than being right.
The market never pays those who "understand"; it pays those who "survive."
Control your hands. Wait until policy direction is clear—domestic large models, unrestricted technology, traditional defense—then increase positions; that's far more valuable than guessing now.Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$DGAI Large sell order cost decreases, buy order cost increases. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100,000 scale changed from 0.61%/2.89% to 0.77%/2.38%. Both sides are divided.
$AKE Sell cost for two levels decreases simultaneously. Simulated sell slippage: 10,000 decreased from 0.28% to 0.18%, 100,000 decreased from 1.09% to 0.90%. Compared to the previous window, large transaction costs are decreasing.In the past 4 hours, HYPE, ZEC, and XRP have all risen simultaneously, with contract funds also leaning towards the bulls. The author's judgment is that the current bullish dominance remains moderate, and after the price rises, attention should still be paid to profit-taking pullbacks. HYPE price is 86.886, up +1.98%; long positions amount to 250 million, accounting for 54.91%, short positions 210 million, accounting for 45.09%. Among the three, HYPE has the highest bullish proportion, but the gap between long and short is still limited. ZEC price is 1308.69, up +2.59%; long positions 820 million, accounting for 52.67%, short positions 740 million, accounting for 47.33%. It has the largest increase, but the fund inclination has not significantly widened. The author links this round of elasticity to the previous large-scale short liquidation data, and this explanation still needs to be observed in conjunction with subsequent fund changes. XRP price is 1.2917, up +1.11%; long positions 190 million, accounting for 52.34%, short positions 170 million, accounting for 47.66%, with the weakest bullish advantage among the three. 💡 My view. This set of data looks more like a bullish sentiment during the upward process, rather than an overwhelming one-sided crowding. The bullish proportion cannot directly infer subsequent rises or falls, especially when the price has already risen; short-term profit-taking may cause pullbacks to appear faster. Next, focus can be placed on whether the long-short ratio continues to expand and whether funds increase synchronously with price rises. Would you pay more attention to ZEC's price elasticity or HYPE's relatively higher bullish proportion? Circle delivered an almost flawless financial report, yet its stock price only rose 3% in pre-market trading. This reaction is more telling than the numbers themselves.
Q3 total revenue and reserve income reached $864.9 million, up 17% year-over-year, beating the expected $776.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $317 million, up 91%, surpassing the expected $202.8 million. Net profit was $226 million, compared to the expected $91.6 million.
Note the growth gap: revenue increased by 17%, while EBITDA surged 91%. The extra profit didn’t come from collecting more money, but from costs not rising accordingly. The marginal cost of stablecoin issuance is close to zero; once scale is established, every additional dollar of revenue translates into a higher proportion of profit. This is a rent-collection business, not a trading business.
$USDC’s reserve income essentially comes from interest on the underlying dollar assets, with flexibility depending only on two factors: circulation scale and interest rate environment. Neither is determined by crypto market trends. Whether $BTC rises or falls does not affect how many dollars back each USDC.
More importantly, management maintained their performance guidance unchanged. Achieving more than double the expected net profit in a single quarter but refusing to raise the full-year forecast usually indicates that this quarter includes unsustainable elements—the reserve income boosted by high interest rates has a ceiling.
So the real question isn’t how much Circle earned this quarter, but what will support $USDC’s profit curve once interest rates decline.Some say that when a company buys Bitcoin, it's gambling. I think it depends on what money they use to buy it. If it's employee salaries or payments owed to suppliers, and those funds are still needed, yet they claim it's a long-term hold, I don't believe they can really hold on to it. I can understand hoarding coins with money that temporarily doesn't affect operations, and accepting the losses, but you can't use "long-term" as an excuse to silence shareholders. I'd actually like to review the announcements—if the company really runs short of operating funds, who has the authority to decide to sell the coins? When they bought, it was all fanfare; why hasn't anyone elaborated on this part?$BTC Today's Bitcoin trend really embodies the phrase "frustrating," let me share some solid market insights with you:
Right now (19:42), the price has touched $78,486, up 2% in 24 hours, but during the day it just climbed up from a low of $75,700. Intraday, it has spiked up and down nearly $3,000, with longs and shorts both triggering stop losses back and forth. Many who shorted in the morning got trapped by the afternoon.
The whole market is basically stuck:
- Liquidations on contracts are down by one-third compared to the previous day; no one dares to use high leverage, longs and shorts are almost evenly split, and no one is willing to bet heavily.
- Although Binance covered the $6.3 billion hack themselves, people are still uneasy and reluctant to put more money on exchanges, causing buy orders to shrink significantly.
- The Fed's December rate hike probability is nearly 80%, and the dollar is still strengthening. Everyone is holding cash, waiting for the U.S. nonfarm payroll data on November 6th, and no one dares to bet on the direction early.
In short, it's "neither falling nor rising." There is solid support around 76,000, but to hold above 78,000 and push higher, no new money is coming in to catch the dip. In the next two days, it will most likely oscillate between 76,000 and 79,000. Until there is a volume breakout, anyone calling a big move is just talking nonsense. The trends of three altcoins are diverging; bottom-fishing requires caution
$LIGHT
Currently, the daily chart shows signs of stabilization, entering a phase of oscillating upward movement. However, bearish momentum is insufficient, and the driving force for a rally is limited. If the price reaches a certain level without enough bears entering, there is a significant risk of a direct dump, indicating a failed bear trap.
$USELESS
At present, bearish profits are ten times those of bulls. Although it rebounded 15% today, the overall trend has not reversed and can only be considered an oversold rebound for now. Do not blindly bottom-fish due to short-term gains; it is safer to wait for the trend to truly develop before acting.
$AKE
This coin currently shows no clear hope for a rally. Bearish profits have reached $1.35 million, with a 1350% drop in just 12 days. Even if the drop adds another zero, it does not mean it has bottom-fishing value. Blindly catching the falling knife can easily lead to further losses.
The biggest fear with altcoins is thinking they are cheap after a big drop, then mistaking a small rise for a reversal. Patience is more important than bottom-fishing before the trend emerges.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Brothers, Wall Street institutions recently did something ruthless—they directly slashed Anthropic's IPO valuation from $2 trillion down to $1.5–1.6 trillion, chopping off four to five hundred billion in one cut. Pharaoh sips coffee watching the drama unfold in the heavens: wow, Claude hasn't even rung the bell yet, and he's already been broken by his own people.
Why the cut? Three words: no confidence. Tech stocks were just bloodied last week, AI sector funds are overly concentrated, and data centers are facing political resistance. Worse, Anthropic itself disclosed a $895.4 billion compute power expenditure commitment, with $69.8 billion due in the next 12 months alone. What about revenue? Q2 quarter-on-quarter growth exceeded 100%, but Q3 dropped directly to 45%, halving the growth rate.
The causal chain is clear: AI valuations are being marked down ➡️ market faith in "AI's unlimited spending" cracks ➡️ risk appetite for tech stocks continues to cool ➡️ incremental funds dare not rush into the most crowded places. But here’s a subtle twist—AI has been a massive liquidity black hole over the past year, with OpenAI cutting financing and AI company debt piling up to $655 billion, all eaten up by compute infrastructure. If AI valuations start to retreat, marginally it might actually squeeze some funds out of the "AI faith," forcing them to look for the next narrative. This isn’t necessarily bad for BTC, but it will take time; it won’t be realized tonight.
$BTC $ZEC #Anthropic潜在IPO投资者建议估值降至1.5万亿美元 #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
The market is focused on Circle's upcoming earnings report, essentially to see one thing: whether the growth in USDC volume can truly convert into profits, rather than being eaten up by declining interest rates and channel revenue sharing.
Its business logic is simple: it doesn't make money from on-chain transaction fees, but from interest on reserves of U.S. Treasury bonds. Even if transaction volume explodes, if funds just move in and out quickly without increasing the settled balance, revenue won't rise accordingly; even if the circulating supply increases, once U.S. Treasury yields decline, incremental earnings are directly diluted. This situation already appeared in Q2: USDC's average circulation rose 25% year-over-year, but reserve income only increased 5%, meaning a 66 basis point drop in reserve yield offset the growth dividend, and nearly 60% of income must be shared with exchanges and channel partners, leaving a thin margin for Circle itself.
The current positive side: USDC's circulating supply has recently stabilized, with ongoing demand from institutions, RWA, and payment settlements providing a floor. The proportion of USDC retained within platforms continues to rise; the longer funds are retained, the steadier the interest income. Additionally, the launch of the Arc mainnet and the expansion of the CCTP cross-chain ecosystem leave room for future scale growth. Non-interest income from payments and subscriptions is also gradually increasing, helping to reduce dependence on U.S. Treasury yields. 📊 $BTC: Strong rebound from the mid-term support zone, next focus on resistance levels!
Bitcoin has clearly rebounded from the mid-term support zone, with short-term prospects to continue testing the resistance area ahead.
However, there is another important market signal to watch:
If BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) continues to rise, altcoins may face a new round of selling pressure.
📌 Key points to watch next:
- Whether $BTC can sustain the rebound and test the upper resistance.
- Whether BTC.D continues to climb.
- Whether altcoins experience further capital outflows.
Currently, keep monitoring changes in BTC.D and manage short positions according to the original trading plan; do not easily change strategy due to short-term fluctuations.
A BTC rebound does not necessarily mean altcoins will rise; capital flow is the key.
#BTC #BTCDominance #Altcoins #CryptoMarket #OKXOrbitTopicsJust now: Morgan Stanley, with $10 trillion, is one of the first banks to tokenize U.S. stocks and government bonds through DTCC's tokenization service.After pulling back from 78000 in the evening, BTC still holds above on the hourly chart, but tonight I'll wait and watch first, not rushing to trade before the data direction.
At 21:15 Beijing time, ADP employment data will be released, with an expected increase of 67,000 and a previous value of 90,000. I pay more attention to wages, industry distribution, and revisions, and don't take a slowdown in employment directly as a positive.
If the data is weak, and the dollar and US Treasury yields fall back, and BTC holds 78000 with volume expansion, then I'll reassess a bullish bias; if the hourly chart falls back below, I'll withdraw the breakout judgment.
$BTC #波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC, $ETH, and $SNDK have all experienced a rebound, and the market looks very prosperous. Many people seeing this scene might think the bull market has returned. However, I believe the bull market has not returned yet; this is just a last flicker before a major market crash. We look at this from two perspectives: one is the midterm election results, and the other is the contract data of $ETH. Both perspectives can help us see the direction clearly. —————————————————— Let's first look at the midterm elections. The midterm election results were a big win for the Democrats, taking both the House and Senate, making Trump a lame-duck president now. Given Trump's past behavior, what do you think he will do? I believe it is highly likely to be war or unlimited vetoes. To maintain his power and avoid investigations by the Democrats, Trump is very likely to continue the US-Iran conflict, which is entirely possible. Another approach is to exercise unlimited presidential veto power, a milder method, by vetoing all bills from both chambers to force the Democrats to cooperate with him. Either of these tactics is bearish for the market, so from a macro perspective, there is currently no sign of long-term bullish potential. —————————————————— Now let's look at the contract data of $ETH. Contract data reflects market sentiment and is the most direct factor affecting price; it is also one of my important bases for judgment. Let's first look at the short-term data, which is very bearish. We can see that its long-short ratio in the mid70,000 limit order earning interest, many people assume this BTC order will safely earn 12U
Many in the market treat this BTC dual-currency order at the 70,000 price level as a sure-win plan, aiming to collect 12U interest, betting that the market won't break downward. But the 2.01% range margin is very small, a sharp drop can directly trigger the option exercise.
I tend to wait and see; the foundation of this idea is that the price stays oscillating above the range. The trigger point for this consensus to fail is the coin price falling below 70,000.
Open the financial order panel, confirm the exercise rules of this dual-currency order, and consider whether you are willing to take BTC at this price level. #
$BTC $ETH $SOL #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
When judging bullish or bearish trends, what I value most is not the candlestick chart, nor the "bull-bear ratio," but the combination of funding rate + open interest (OI).
The logic is simple: the bull-bear ratio counts "heads," while the funding rate shows "who is paying real money." The liquidation chain reaction is a function of the nominal leverage value, not the number of accounts. So:
• Funding rate staying high + OI hitting new highs → crowded longs, the stronger the rise, the more dangerous, with a high chance of a sharp spike and drop;
• Negative funding rate + OI accumulation → shorts are overly concentrated, prone to short squeeze rebounds;
• Price hits new highs but OI drops and funding rate levels off → no new money coming in, shorts are covering, trend is near exhaustion.
For short-term, watch leverage; for mid-term, watch real money. Funding rate controls "when a stampede happens," ETF net inflows + on-chain withdrawals control "whether the direction is right." My approach is: ETF/on-chain sets direction, funding rate + OI set the rhythm, stop loss and position size manage survival.
A contrarian view: most people lose by mistaking "extreme sentiment" for a "reversal signal." High funding rate does not mean an immediate drop; the key is whether OI continues to add leverage—extremes without leverage are just noise; extremes with leverage are gunpowder.
In the long term, I remain bullish on the underlying logic of BTC/ETH, but in trading, I don't guess tops or bottoms, only follow a closed loop of "direction + crowding + stop loss."#US Midterm Elections: Democrats Gain Control of Both Houses of Congress Market Core Pricing: The previously traded expectations of "Republican fiscal expansion, tax cuts, crypto easing, aggressive energy deregulation" have rapidly faded, entering a balance of power between the White House and Congress. Although the Democrats control the legislative agenda in both the House and Senate, the president holds veto power, so there will still be struggles for major bills to pass. The most direct change is a significant increase in investigation, hearings, and regulatory review powers.
On the fiscal side, large-scale tax cuts and new deficit stimulus are unlikely to be implemented, leading to a cooling of long-term bond supply and deficit expansion expectations, which drives U.S. Treasury yields down and puts temporary pressure on the dollar; however, debt ceiling and government budget tug-of-war will likely increase, causing periodic disturbances in the bond market.
Industry regulation is the short-term main theme. Large tech and AI sectors will face stronger antitrust and security reviews, suppressing capital expenditure expectations, and AI high-valuation sectors will face short-term pressure; crypto sector regulatory tightening expectations are rising, with compliance and anti-money laundering bills more likely to advance, causing BTC and crypto assets to be sentimentally pressured. In energy, policy benefits for traditional oil and gas deregulation weaken, while new energy is more likely to receive policy support.
On the geopolitical front, Democrats can use budget appropriations to constrain the White House from unilaterally launching large-scale military actions, lowering the probability of a full escalation of Middle East conflicts, and further reducing the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Among a pile of long and short data, what I prioritize is not the long-short ratio or RSI, but whether the funds can continuously realize into the price.
Many people are easily misled by surface sentiment data. Long-short positions and bullish votes often appear as reverse traps at extreme points; when everyone is overwhelmingly on one side, it is often a turning point. Simply looking at sentiment, it is easy to catch the last leg.
My ranking:
First, volume-price resonance. Increasing volume on the rise and shrinking volume on pullbacks is the most solid proof of bulls; if the price rises but volume continuously shrinks, even with a bunch of bullish data, I treat it as a rebound and dare not take heavy positions. The same applies to declines; only a volume breakout on a drop is real selling pressure.
Second, macro liquidity. U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and policy expectations form the big foundation. As long as liquidity turns, even the best technical signals can be directly broken through. The root of long and short in the big cycle lies here.
Third, sector strength and weakness. The market turns green, but if the main sectors continuously lag and rotate very fast, it is a false strength; even if the index dips slightly, if the main sectors hold up and continuously have new highs in some stocks, the bulls have enough confidence.
Fourth is sentiment and positions. Used as a contrarian reference, not a trend-following basis. When everyone is overwhelmingly on one side, beware of consensus killing expectations.
Personal view: No single indicator can directly determine direction, but if funds and price cannot synchronize, all other beautiful long-short signals are just numbers on paper. I never understood how a project can first report only one state, then add 22 shareholders after the lawsuit starts. Sun Yuchen now wants an explanation for these three months, a $263,800 sanction fee, which is just a drop in the bucket compared to the $45 million investment. What he really wants is for the court to acknowledge: this document is invalid. Holders of $WLFI have probably been refreshing December 10th lately, and so have I, but I don't know if what we're seeing is the result or the date of the next hearing. Evening analysis, understanding $ETH rebound on the 4h chart! Is it an opportunity or a bull trap? How to handle short positions stuck!
Let's talk about the current concerns in the market: Can you chase longs? How to deal with short positions stuck? Current price around 2331, the 4-hour price just pierced the upper Bollinger Band, short-term overbought.
Can you chase longs? Don't chase at the current price! Resistance above is 2340-2350, a volume-less surge up is likely to fall back. If you want to go long, wait for a pullback to 2290 to stabilize before considering.
What to do if short positions are stuck? If it holds above 2350, it's recommended to stop loss and exit short positions. If there is a high close with a long upper shadow between 2340-2350, this is the rebound high point, you can consider adding positions or trying shorts.
Essentially, this is just a rebound. The market is waiting for the non-farm payrolls to determine December rates. High rate expectations remain unchanged, ETH ETF continues outflows, and the overall environment hasn't improved. Both longs and shorts are easily shaken out in this range; stubbornly holding is the easiest way to lose money.
If you're unsure about the levels, join the main page research community for real-time synchronized operation signals.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 $BTC has recently seen a strong surge in gold prices, with many friends paying close attention to whether this rebound can continue. Behind this is a resonance of multiple capital logics, not driven by a single piece of news.
The decline in real US Treasury yields is the core mainline of this round of the market. Gold itself does not generate interest; the higher the US Treasury yield, the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold. Recently, there have been obvious divergences in speeches by Federal Reserve officials, and the market has begun to re-game the possibility of a rate hike in December. With rate hike expectations cooling down, US Treasury yields have fallen, naturally increasing the appeal of the interest-free asset gold. Capital has started to flow back into the precious metals sector. When gold prices pull back, the support is very strong, making it difficult for a one-sided, bottomless decline to occur, thus solidifying the bottom range for gold prices.
Risk aversion demand is heating up, coupled with accelerated inflows into ETFs driving the market. Currently, overseas concerns about a US congressional deadlock and increased volatility in the crypto market have led some funds to choose gold as a risk hedging tool. At the same time, gold ETFs continue to see net inflows, bringing incremental funds into the market. After breaking through key resistance levels, short-term chasing orders are triggered, further amplifying the upward momentum.
However, it is necessary to view this objectively. This wave of increase is driven by speculative expectations. There is still some time before the non-farm payroll data, and Thursday will bring the ADP preliminary non-farm data. The market is prone to repeated shakeouts and whipsaws. The biggest risk of the expected market is "buying on expectations, selling on facts." Once subsequent employment data is stronger than expected and rate hike expectations rise again, gold prices can quickly fall back.
Short-term indicators have already entered an overbought area, so blindly chasing highs is not advisable. Position holders should focus on key support and resistance levels, control their positions well, and manage risk effectively Sun Yuchen is not just chasing money this time; he is after a list of equity holders. He applied to the U.S. federal court to demand WLFI and its lawyers pay $263,800 in sanction fees, arguing that in the $45 million investment lawsuit, the opposing party submitted false documents—the UAE-related party in the company's ownership chain was concealed. Initially, WLFI only listed Florida as its jurisdiction, and three months later submitted a revision listing 22 individuals and entities, including the UAE-related party, then claimed it should not be tried in federal court based on this revision. The sequence is critical: first underreport, then after the lawsuit starts, supplement the list, and simultaneously claim lack of jurisdiction. $WLFI sells a narrative of compliance and licensing; the most valuable asset of such projects is not the code but the disclosure records. Once the disclosure is deemed flawed by the court, every subsequent document can be used against them. $TRX's fundamentals are basically unrelated to this lawsuit; TRON's cash flow does not rely on WLFI's valuation. The judgment should be viewed separately: $WLFI's short-term risk is the December 10 hearing, not the coin price itself; $TRX is affected in sentiment, not assets. One point worth considering is that Sun Yuchen said he will wait for the sanction application result before refiling in California state court, which means this dispute will not end in December but will just restart in a different court.#US Midterm Elections: Democrats Gain Control of Both Houses of Congress Democrats sweep both chambers, BTC first drops below 76,000 then rebounds to 77,800. The core change is not "banning crypto," but legislative freeze and administrative regulation taking over—the CLARITY Act is harder to advance, stablecoin framework remains unchanged. Historically, BTC rises in the 12 months after midterm elections, but 2026 is a cycle exception, the low point in June may have already occurred. $BTC $ETH $BTC The new governor of Florida just took office and immediately announced plans to use the state treasury to buy 1 million BTC as a strategic reserve.
There are only so many real coins circulating in the market; if all 1 million BTC are moved into cold wallets, the shorts would have to pay interest every day.
Sovereign-level funds don't care about moving averages at all; once they buy, it's a dead hold.
Right now, if the price drops, there is immediate buying support; holding short positions at this level is just fueling the Americans.
#BTC
$BTC
👇Choosing the right assets is more important than timing: Practical application of correlation and "offense-defense pairing" The previous article introduced the mechanism and parameter settings of rebalancing. After setting the rules, what determines whether rebalancing can truly be effective is which assets are included in the portfolio. This article is based on real price data from the OKX spot market and revolves around three questions: Where does the portfolio risk come from? Which assets placed together truly count as diversified? How to step-by-step build a portfolio that balances offense and defense? After reading, you can also use the five self-check questions at the end to review your own portfolio. Part One: Where does the portfolio risk come from? 1. A common phenomenon Many users create their first portfolio with BTC + ETH. After running such a portfolio for a while, rebalancing is rarely triggered; when the overall market declines, the portfolio's performance is not much different from simply holding the two coins directly. The parameters of this portfolio may be fine; the problem lies in the assets themselves. To understand this, we first need to clearly see what determines portfolio risk. 2. The risk of each asset itself: risk spectrum One of the most commonly used indicators to measure the risk of a single asset is volatility, which is the magnitude of price fluctuations. Arranging common assets by annualized volatility produces a "risk spectrum": During the same period, USDT has almost no volatility; xSPY about 11%; xQQQ and gold around 19%–22%; BTC about 36%; ETH, SOL around 50%; DOGE, PEPE, etc. MThis matter with Trump is short-term bearish for the crypto space, but not enough to cause a complete upheaval. After the Democrats take control of Congress, the crypto-friendly bills pushed by Trump may slow down, and regulatory scrutiny could become stricter. When the news broke, Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $75,700, then rebounded to about $78,000, indicating the market is digesting the expectations. Going forward, the focus will be on the progress of the bills, the US dollar, and interest rates. If regulations tighten, exchanges and project teams will face greater pressure, but it doesn't necessarily mean the entire market will keep falling $BTC $ETH 🔥 Has Bitcoin bottomed out! Has the pullback finished!
Currently, one thing is certain: the third wave of the downward C wave has completed.
Internal wave structure of C3 wave:
Wave 1: 81953-76270=5683
Wave 2: 76270-78853=-2583
Wave 3: 78853-76351=2502
Wave 4: 76351-78039=-1688
Wave 5: 78039-75690=2349
Since the third wave of the C wave is confirmed complete, it can be known that the current movement is the fourth wave rebound.
Currently, it has already rebounded from 75690.
The 79200-79700 range is a likely high point to test because the previous high of 78500 has already been touched. So far, the rebound has been continuous without a pullback. After a pullback, it is highly probable to test higher highs, such as 78800 and 79200. Even if it falls later, it will most likely first take out liquidity here.
Future trend:
I believe after the rebound, there will be another drop, which is the fifth wave of the C wave. The fifth wave may not necessarily break the low of the third wave, meaning it might not break below 75690, but I lean towards it breaking below 75000 to take liquidity near 74900.
Regarding timing, the previous A wave's internal rebound wave and the second wave of the C wave both lasted about 3-4 days. Counting from today as day one, theoretically, the end of the C4 wave rebound should be around Friday or the weekend.
⚠️ If this rebound directly breaks above 81953, then the previous wave analysis will become invalid.BTC and ETH Short-Term Contract Trading Strategy on November 4, 2026 - 5-Minute Level Analysis｜Holding Period: Within 12 Hours｜Single Direction: Bullish｜USDT Perpetual Contract 💝 1️⃣ Core Conclusion From the current candlestick chart, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced a clear bottoming after a sharp decline followed by a rapid rebound. Prices have now returned to the intraday high area, and the short-term bullish structure still holds a certain advantage. However, after continuous rallies, prices are approaching short-term resistance zones, and the MACD shows signs of momentum slowing down. Therefore, it is not recommended to chase the highs directly at this time; it is more suitable to wait for a pullback to the support area before gradually building long positions. Today's core idea: wait for a pullback to go long, do not chase the rally, and do not try to predict the top in advance. Entry Principles: The above are planned order placement ranges, not current market price buys. Enter only after the price pulls back into the entry range and a 5-minute level stop-fall signal appears. Do not chase if there is no pullback. BTC Analysis: Current price is around 78,609, with an intraday low of 75,690 and a high of 78,696. After a quick rebound from around 75,690, the price has continuously raised its lows, showing a clear short-term bullish trend. The area near 78,185 is a key short-term support to watch, while 78,696 is the current resistance above. If the price pulls back to the 78,250–78,380 range and gains buying support, there is still a chance to push further to 78,850 and 79,200. ETH Analysis: Current price is around 2,331, with an intraday low of 2,225 and a high of 2,333.8 It only took one month for the price to drop from 87,000 back to 76,000, but it only took 6 days to rise back up. This asymmetry itself is very telling. Have you recently felt the frustration of "being right about the direction but not making money"? This week, when I reviewed my own records, the most painful trade wasn't shorting at the top, but hesitating to short around 76,000. At that time, the group chat was full of voices saying "it will keep falling," and the mood was like a wet towel being wrung tighter and tighter, getting heavier and heavier. Looking back now, that kind of consensus is often not a signal, but evidence that emotions have already gotten ahead of the price. Let's start with the facts: BTC slid all the way down from resistance at 87,000 to 76,000, while the rebound from 75,000 to 87,000 only took 6 days. The quick rise and slow fall indicate that the overhead supply is being digested continuously, rather than a simple panic sell-off. ETH simultaneously returned to the 2220 to 2180 range, which corresponds to a previously dense trading zone, not just a randomly drawn support. My own adjustment is simple: no more adding shorts at this level, and no rush to go full position. The slightly bullish path is to first observe the recovery strength between 78,000 and 80,000, and only after stabilizing above 80,000 consider 82,000 to 84,000. A strong bullish candle pulling up during the emotional recovery phase is not uncommon. The risk is also clear: if 80,000 repeatedly fails to break through, then 76,000 to 75,000 is not the bottom, just a mid-point stop. Altcoins will bleed before mainstream assets, and risk appetite will drop another notch. What is truly overlooked is the rhythm. Rising for 6 days and falling for a month means that what is being traded now is time cost, not direction From a fundamental perspective, this AMD earnings report is clearly positive.
I believe there are three market signals worth noting:
AI infrastructure demand remains strong, with data center business growth nearly doubling.
AMD's Q4 revenue guidance exceeded expectations, indicating that order demand is translating into actual performance.
Management's growth expectations for 2027 are clearly optimistic, helping the market to reassess AMD's long-term growth potential.
Taking a long position at this pre-market level, with a stop loss around 501. Really ruthless, a -0.7 fee, and the next settlement is coming soon. This toy company is really ruthless. So many people are shorting, but this big player stubbornly refuses to sell, eating the short sellers' fees until they are liquidated.
The big player holds too many chips; if he doesn't sell, you have no way to deal with it.
Moreover, ordinary retail investors in the A-share market don't have the right to short; only contract traders can short. Do you think this makes sense?[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Sony released its earnings after the market closed on November 5. Pharaoh did some quick calculations and found this earnings report quite divided: music is steadily making money, while gaming is struggling with costs.
Last quarter, music sales rose by 21%, driven by both streaming and live performances, with the core business showing no major surprises. But on the gaming side, PS5 only sold 1.6 million units last quarter, hardware revenue is declining, and memory chips are being squeezed by AI demand, so costs won't come down anytime soon. The full-year G&NS operating profit guidance is 660 billion yen, a big jump from last year's 463.3 billion, mainly supported by digital software and PS+ subscriptions. GTA6 won't arrive until November 19, so short-term relief is unlikely.
Let's break down the causal chain: the yen depreciation directly amplifies Sony's overseas profits when converted back to yen, making the earnings look good on the surface; but if gaming hardware continues to underperform and the currency-related tax benefits on sensors dry up, the market's pricing of "Japanese tech stock resilience" will loosen ➡️ risk appetite will marginally cool ➡️ the crypto market will shake accordingly. Of course, Sony is not Nvidia; it lacks an AI narrative, so the transmission to BTC is very weak, more of a sentiment "weathervane" than a driving force.
Sony's music is making money, gaming hardware is burning cash, and your short positions are waiting for the right moment. Don't let the noise from the earnings report press your button to add to your position. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ Brothers, this rebound wave is smoother than expected.
Midterm elections settled, uncertainty cleared, all bad news out—that's the best short-term fuel. But don't get carried away, let's look at the structure:
① First, look at the 78,600 neckline, which is the current first hurdle. It was tested once on Monday, now the second attack, with a higher success rate than the first. Take partial profits on high-leverage long positions here, hold the spot positions without moving, don't give back unrealized gains.
② If it holds above 78,600, then look at breaking through 79,400 next, where selling pressure is heavy. If it really reaches this range, I would rather place a short order to catch an 800–1000 point pullback, not greedy for a breakout.
③ The short-term logic is simple: buy at support, try short at resistance. At 7.65, caught the rebound twice already, now lock in profits and wait for the next confirmation.
④ The big picture is not pessimistic. The market has been volatile for almost two months. According to historical rhythm, after a sharp rise, a 2–3 month consolidation often leads to a directional move. After the midterm elections settle, the key is whether the US stock market doesn't drag behind, if ETF outflows can stabilize and turn into inflows, then spot can be bought on dips, and a big move can ignite anytime.
⑤ Reviewing this round of operations: escaped the top at 87,000 → bought at 80,500 → reversed to short at 84,000 → caught rebounds twice at 76,500. The rhythm is flawless, those who followed got all the gains they should. Continue to execute by levels, no chasing, no holding through losses, no emotional trades.
$ZEC #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 Trump said in one sentence, "We have done our best," basically declaring the overall situation settled.
What does it mean? The control of Congress is lost, and the previously hyped crypto-friendly bills and crypto capital plans are directly blocked and hard to advance.
The Democrats took both the House and Senate, a rare big win in forty years, but the biggest risk for the crypto circle is still not the bill being stuck. The biggest fear is sudden geopolitical news after election losses. Once news of Middle East military action breaks out, it will cause a double-sided spike, killing both bulls and bears, and no one can escape.
The market has already priced in pessimistic expectations in advance, with Bitcoin showing a daily bearish pattern, ETFs continuously seeing outflows, and $ETH ETFs bleeding even longer, making its rebound inherently weaker than $BTC. Those who have recently doubled their gains are advised to take profits first and not chase the tail-end of the rally.
All current market moves are expectation-driven games; only after the election is fully settled will a true trend emerge.
Going forward, focus on $SPCX as it is the leading signal of risk asset sentiment in this round. If you have no direction, visit the homepage study group for operational ideas.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Despite such a drop, the bulls are still paying.
BTC is hovering around 77,000 (Odaily 11/4 about 76990), and the funding rates are still positive: BTC about 0.0075%, ETH about 0.0062% (CoinGlass, AInvest 11/3). Bulls continue to pay wages to the bears.
On OKX from 8/5 to 11/2, in 270 settlements, bulls paid 92% of the fees, totaling about 1.51% of the nominal principal. Even as prices fall, protection fees are still being paid.
Don't rush to call it a complete liquidation if the funding rate hasn't turned negative; the bags are still there.
#FundingRateSome brothers on okx still believe that the CORE public chain is still operating, but its appearance is more like a static specimen.
Statistics show that there are about three hundred contracts registered in the CORE ecosystem list, but only a dozen or so have continuous funding, real users, and stable transactions. The vast majority are DApps quickly deployed using templates, originally created to participate in airdrop activities. Once incentives stop, users and funds quickly leave, leaving.#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
What really unsettled traders wasn’t that the Democrats won, but that they won by such a large margin that they could block AI data center approvals. Texas, Ohio, Georgia—these key states for data centers flipped to blue governors, and the decision to build data centers, including land and permits, is precisely in the governors’ hands. Someone from JPMorgan said a blunt truth: divided government usually benefits the stock market, but this time it’s different because the Democrats might actually regulate AI.
But don’t interpret this as the usual “legislative gridlock” script. Jeffries promised to push an affordability agenda in the House’s first 100 days, restoring ACA subsidies, removing tariffs, and ending the Iran conflict. These require 60 votes in the Senate and won’t pass. What will really move is investigative power—Warren may take over the Senate Banking Committee and has already sent letters regarding Trump family crypto transactions and AI contracts.
Trump’s side hasn’t been idle either. Since April, the White House has been mapping out administrative routes to bypass Congress, with immigration, tariffs, and federal spending on the list. He himself said he’ll be a “veto man” for a month or two before discussing anything else. Translation: legislative efforts are likely a dead end; the real battlefield is between executive orders and subpoenas. Don’t rush to chase market direction at tomorrow’s open; first watch two things: whether Texas really freezes data center approvals, and who Warren’s first subpoena will target.Conclusion first: $USELESS is up 15% today (0.1242 → 0.1435), and I didn't make a single trade. The reason boils down to three numbers.
① Funding rate: OKX settles every 4 hours, stuck at the floor rate of 0.005% (positive = longs pay) for 6 consecutive periods. Equivalent to 0.03% per day, you pay even if it doesn't rise.
② Open interest: At 10:00 today it was $3.48 million, surged to $4.53 million at 16:00 (+30%), while the price went from 0.1229 to 0.1438. Price rising along with open interest means new longs entering, not shorts covering.
③ Depth: The top 20 bids and asks on the perpetual order book total only about $1,500, while 24-hour perpetual volume is $22.9 million. There is no USELESS among OKX's 1,210 spot pairs, so if you want to exit, you'll be behind others.
On 10-31 it dropped 10% breaking 0.13, then media said 0.13 was a demand zone. Now it has indeed bounced back to 0.1435, but it's still down 38.9% over 30 days and 67% from the October 2025 high of 0.4346.
For this kind of meme coin, I only do two things: no adding to position, and keep my position always smaller than what I can afford to lose. Will you treat 0.13 as the bottom line to buy, or wait until it breaks the previous high of 0.1464 before deciding? $USELESS