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Bro, how many times has it bounced back now?｜Top 5 Altcoins by Gains Today (20:00)
$APR +21.45% (24h +28.91%). 1h price +8.08%, volume +23.80%, turnover +16.11% all advancing together, 4h volume +46.59%, volume 2.86 million, volume ratio 28.1 — the most synchronized in price, volume, and turnover.
$BEAT +20.65% (24h +22.52%). Nearly 1h price -1.78%, volume -7.28% retreating together, volume 5.38 million — money is pulling out after the surge.
$INIT +18.00% (24h +6.12%). 1h turnover -7.47% shrinking, price -1.10% falling back, 4h volume +20.32%, volume 2.89 million, turnover 133 million — taking a breather after the pump.
$BLEND +13.97% (24h +11.68%). 4h volume +235.87% looks scary, but volume is only 630k, a small volume, fee rate -0.27% pressed to extreme negative, nearly 1h price +1.75%, volume only +0.36% stagnating — small volume anomaly, just shaking.
$HYPE +10.15% (24h +8.04%). 1h volume +8.82%, turnover +35.87%, 4h volume +21.40%, volume 119 million, turnover 357 million big ticket — big ticket steady inflow."A 0.92% buffer against the daily fluctuations of $SNDK — this is the riskiest part of this trade."
$SNDK at 75x leverage, from 1354.3 to 1366.8, +69.22%. Conversely: it only needs to retrace about 0.12% for that 69% gain to vanish completely.
What does 0.12% mean for $SNDK? A normal downward wick, or even a large sell order on the order book. In other words, this trade doesn't require any fading of positive factors, a trend reversal, or even someone deliberately shorting — a purely technical pullback is enough to wipe it out.
75x leverage magnifies 0.92% into 69%, and likewise magnifies 0.12% into zero. It offers you huge returns but is always ready to take them back.
The market itself is holding up: price is running high. But the key support below is not far away.
So I never decide to exit based on "how much I've earned," only on how far the price is from my cost line. 0.92% looks like a buffer, but altcoin fluctuations never make sense.
The only move: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, and do not increase exposure. $BTC $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 I opened a BTC long position near 80,000, and the reason is not "it has dropped too much and should rebound."
First, the bulls are not crowded. BTC funding rates on Binance are 0.0025%, OKX 0.0076%, both below the 0.01% benchmark, meaning there isn't a bunch of leveraged longs waiting to be liquidated. Going long is not a consensus trade.
Second, the shorts have fuel. Shorts account for 66.9% of the 24-hour total liquidations across the network, with BTC liquidations at 65.17 million, nearly 80% of which are shorts. Shorts are being squeezed, but the price hasn't continued to rally, indicating no forced large-scale short covering yet. Holding above 81,000, the thick short liquidation zone is near 82,000, which is a potential acceleration area.
Third, ETFs are providing support. BlackRock's IBIT received 3,441 BTC in a single day, about $277 million, with institutions accumulating near 80,000. But ETF holders' average cost is about 81,500, and the current price is just at this level, a battleground. Persistently closing below this level could bring redemption reflex risk.
My stop loss is very clear: 79,300 is the nearest dense long liquidation zone below; if broken, I admit being wrong and won't hold on. On the upside, first watch the 82,000 short zone; only after holding above that do I consider the 85,000-87,500 resistance zone.
Note, the total stablecoin market cap has shrunk by 6 billion in one month, and there is no new money off-exchange. So this is a range long, not a trend long. The long logic is "uncrowded bulls + short fuel + ETF support," not "a bull market is certain."
$BTC 18:00 With 27,980 contracts, the price was pushed from 1364 to 1381 and closed at 1378; at 19:00, only 9,229 contracts were used to pull it back to 1369 — spending three parts going uphill, but only one part going downhill, unable to hold the top.
04:00 The 87,669 contracts were the main highlight of the day: surged to 1421.2 (24h high) then smashed down to 1364 and closed at 1373, giving back 15 points of the upper shadow immediately.
09:00 Another 35,243 contracts smashed down to 1342, at 10:00 a further hit to 1338 closed at 1352 — the 24h low was hammered out, and the close was all above it.
11:00-15:00 Five bars with volumes between 6,910 and 17,662 contracts ground for five hours, no one made a move here.
Current price 1365.9 is stuck three points below MA20 at 1368.9, since 20:00 only 1,584 contracts traded.
$SNDK
1H candle closes above 1378 with volume ≥ 20,000 contracts → pullback to 1372~1375 to go long, stop loss at 1366, target 1393, risk-reward ratio 2.9
1H candle closes below 1364 with volume ≥ 20,000 contracts → rebound to 1368~1371 to go short, stop loss at 1377, targets 1346/1338, risk-reward ratios 2.9/3.9
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)My biggest trading lesson: never let FOMO make decisions for you. Missing a trade is better than entering blindly. Patience is a strategy, and protecting capital comes first. #AfricaTradingLessons #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
Google lost this No bet.
The market wanted diluted GAAP EPS to be above $3.10. The official figure came out at $2.12, far offline, so the Yes bet was dropped and those who bought No won.
Review:
Revenue was actually not bad: about $127.6 billion, roughly +25% year-over-year, and Cloud was very strong (Cloud roughly doubled in growth). Many people hearing the story might think "how could it miss expectations?"
But the contract only recognizes GAAP EPS. This quarter, other income was a loss (opposite to the huge equity gains last quarter), pulling down profit and EPS, so it couldn't reach 3.10.
At the opening, Yes was still around 60¢. The market priced "high probability to cross the line" too optimistically; the line was set at 3.10, while consensus expectations were not that high, plus investment income volatility made No more favorable.
The lesson is simple: first check if the settlement rule is GAAP or something else, then listen to the story.
Good revenue ≠ Yes for this market line. #Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve? This move is unlikely to change the short-term outflow pace of Bitcoin funds; I lean towards a bearish consolidation. Sell orders at 2434 outweigh buy orders at 1101, with a strength ratio of 0.45. The funding rate of 0.0072% shows bulls are still paying to hold positions. Open interest of 33,000 coin-based contracts has not withdrawn, more like high-level turnover rather than liquidation. Although the 1-hour chart shows a slight rise, the 4-hour chart has retraced 5.16% from the high; the rebound is a correction, not a reversal. Strategy: lightly short at a rebound to 80785, stop loss at 81265, target 78920; if it falls below 79666 with weak support, abandon bottom fishing, and keep single position size under 5%.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$BTC #Google Q3 revenue growth, net profit decline, earnings per share below expectations
#Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve?
$BTC $PONS observation order broke the low point, first see if it can recover 0.2749
The 5-minute K-line just closed for PONS is at 0.2743 USDT, already below the reference low point of 0.2749 USDT at the time of observation. The observation order has changed from 0.296 USDT at 12:00 on 10-28 to 0.2741 USDT now, a change of -7.40%. I originally followed the high point for observation, now I need to first see if this position can hold back.
The recent 15-minute trading volume is 0.91 times the average of the previous 3-hour equal-length period, with no significant increase in activity. I do not consider this break below as trend confirmation, just that the reference range of the observation order has been broken. My choice is: if it can close above 0.2749 USDT later, I will re-evaluate; if it continues to close below, I will put this observation order aside for now. #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
My subjective judgment: The probability of a decline after the earnings report is about 55%, and the probability of an increase is about 45%. This is a subjective estimate based on current information, not the result of a statistical model.
There are three main reasons:
1. Market expectations are already high. The market expects Q3 revenue to be about $128 billion, with Google Cloud revenue expected to approach $29 billion. Even if the performance exceeds expectations, if the margin of excess is not large enough, the stock price may still fall.
2. AI capital expenditure is the biggest hidden risk. The 2026 capital expenditure guidance has been raised to $195 billion–$205 billion. If management continues to increase investment without providing clear return expectations, the market may choose to take profits.
3. Stock price reaction is more important than earnings numbers. The market looks not only at this quarter's performance but also at cloud business profit margins, free cash flow, and future guidance. The options market expects the stock price to fluctuate about 6% around the earnings report.
My trading inclination: short-term bearish, but I do not recommend heavy short positions directly. If the stock price rebounds weakly after the earnings release and breaks after-hours support, consider following the trend to short; if the cloud business significantly exceeds expectations and the stock price rises with volume, promptly abandon the bearish view.
In a word: I am more cautious about the realization of positive news rather than simply betting on underperformance. The key this time is not how much Google earned, but whether the market believes the AI investment can bring sufficient returns.美元指数升到102.43，BTC却还守在80,000上方、今天还涨了0.49%。这次谁更强？ 先说新闻。三个数字：美元指数102.43（+0.10%）、BTC 80,948.4（+0.49%、近一周 -4.25%）、黄金4,065.7（+0.68%）。资金侧：BTC ETF最新单日净流入1.115亿、5日净流出2,870万、10日净流入3.082亿。情绪侧：恐惧贪婪指数48到51。股市侧：标普500 7,722.6（+0.60%）。 再看资金影响。美元走强通常压制风险资产，但今天BTC和黄金都在涨——这说明资金流入的强度超过了汇率压力。这种情况在历史上并不常见，通常出现在美元走强来自其他货币疲软的时候，而不是美元自身需求上升。 对BTC的含义：这种韧性是积极的信号。如果美元继续走强而BTC仍能守住8万，说明买盘的结构在改善；如果美元走强导致BTC跌破79,220，那韧性就被证伪了。所以接下来的关键是：美元与BTC的负相关性能否维持。 我接下来盯四个指标：一是美元指数102.43是否继续走强；二是BTC能否守住79,220；三是ETF单日流入能否连续；四是黄金与BTC的涨幅差——黄金领先At the same table, Bitcoin is eating meat, while Ethereum doesn't even get to sip the soup.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $286 million over two days, $110 million on Monday and $176 million on Tuesday.
Last Thursday and Friday, $774 million was just withdrawn, so this rebound isn't slow; the net outflow for October has narrowed to only $26 million.
On the other hand, the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $149 million over two days, with a net outflow of $1.32 billion in October, marking the largest monthly outflow since November last year.
Institutions' actions speak louder than words: Bitcoin is a safe-haven position, while Ethereum is temporarily a cash cow.
I think this is not a matter of faith, but of sequence.
Money returns to Bitcoin first to stabilize above $80,000, then rotation can happen to Ethereum; if the sequence is wrong, bottom-fishing ends up halfway up the mountain.
Current price check: BTC around $81,275, up 1.8% in 24 hours; ETH around $2,361, up 2.1% in 24 hours.
Tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce the October decision; the market expects no change at 3.75%-4.00%, but the real focus is whether Powell will leave room for a rate hike in December.
If the decision leans hawkish, the recently returned $286 million might be half withdrawn first.
Source: SoSoValue data, reported by Cointelegraph on October 28; prices verified in real-time by CoinGecko, for reference only, not investment advice.
Which side are you on: wait for Bitcoin to stabilize before talking about rotation, or bet on Ethereum catching up now?
$BTC $ETH
#BitcoinETF #FedDecision The news about Sun Yuchen increasing his holdings in Mina, Celo, and RVN has already spread widely across major media and communities, but the authenticity of the news cannot be verified.
Tracing back to the source, it is his phrase "believe it exists, don't believe it doesn't." Without confirming the holdings or issuing a denial, this vague response leaves ample room for market imagination, which has been continuously forwarded and fermented, gradually spreading into a hot topic rumor across the entire network.
Mina, Celo, and RVN correspond respectively to ZK privacy, inclusive stablecoin payments, and PoW asset issuance tracks. They each have independent narratives but relatively small market caps and weak liquidity. After the news spread, it easily stirred market sentiment, amplifying the nature of capital speculation.
Before the news is confirmed, this phrase itself is the core of the entire rumor: believers take it as a positive signal, skeptics see it as hype rhetoric, and everything depends on the market's own interpretation. Weird! ETF keeps buying, but BTC can't hold above 81,000⚠️
BTC ETF inflow over three days totals 423.6 million USD
Almost all bought by IBIT, accounting for nearly 99%
Other ETFs basically have zero liquidity
On the other hand
Hedge funds simultaneously reduced about 68,000 BTC
ETF is buying, leveraged funds are selling!
Essentially, it's a turnover of existing holdings
Not new bullish capital
$ETH has outflows for three consecutive days
Totaling 170 million USD
ETF can only provide a floor and reduce volatility
Cannot support a trending market
Three days of inflows still can't fill the 200 million net outflow gap before October
Do you think this buying wave can hold the 80,000 level?
Just a personal market record, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 PCE data will be released at 8:30 PM. From an intuitive perspective, this data is not optimistic. For specifics, you can refer to the CPI and PPI data from two weeks ago, both of which leaned hawkish and hot narratives. After all, high oil prices have persisted for so long, especially diesel prices which affect the U.S. logistics industry and ultimately transmit to consumer goods, making it really hard to suppress.
However, thanks to the previous high CPI and PPI data that have already caused two waves of market shocks, as long as today's third wave isn't too extreme, the market can actually withstand it. It might even turn a disaster into a blessing if it's not ridiculously bad.
Currently, the market expects September core PCE to be 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year; overall PCE to be 0.5% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year. Against the backdrop of high oil prices, as long as the final published value is less than or equal to expectations, it's a victory (provided they don't play decimal rounding games).
If the PCE data is unexpectedly mild and dovish, the possible breakthrough point might occur in the processing of the airline ticket weight coefficient conversion. In any case, when the data is released, you can quickly judge the heat or coolness by checking whether the core monthly rate is 0.2% or 0.3%.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 None of the three small coins made any big moves today 🤔
$HYPE 80.222, Hyperliquid is waiting for quarterly dividends 📊
Holding HYPE earns on-chain fee shares, quarterly dividends are in progress. At the 80.2 level, it bounced a bit from the low, but contract positions didn’t follow, indicating dividend expectations rather than new capital inflow. FOMC held steady, risk appetite showed no obvious change.
$BICO 0.01558, Account abstraction is waiting for killer apps 🔧
Biconomy helps users use on-chain products without remembering mnemonic phrases, 0.01558 rose 0.97% today. The direction is right but the market won’t pay for infrastructure; only when apps truly attract users will there be a chance. Risk appetite showed no obvious change after FOMC.
$BEAT 0.0798, Audiora audio copyright NFT is crashing 📉
Audiora creates audio copyright NFTs, sharing on-chain playback revenue with creators. It dropped 12.33% today because the funds that pumped it last round are withdrawing. This coin has a light market cap, so it rebounds fast but also falls fast. At 0.0798, don’t bottom fish lightly.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $ETH Square criticizes ETH every day, saying it moves like an ECG.
Looking at the chain, Bitmine holds 6 million Ethereum, 86% of which is locked in the staking pool.
Big investors now purely treat it as an interest-bearing asset, with positions locked down and no intention to sell.
The market grinds on, but the circulating supply inside the market has actually been drained.
At this point, the shorts are completely holding on hard; when volume slightly increases one day, what will they use to cover?
#ETH
$ETH
👇The NYSE parent company is launching Hyperliquid US perpetual contracts, with HYPE rising from about 80 to around 87 in one day. The product list is still empty, so I'm not convinced by this move yet.
ICE and Trade[XYZ] are planning ICE[XYZ], building US 24-hour perpetuals on Hyperliquid infrastructure, covering stocks, indices, commodities, forex, and crypto, pending CFTC approval.
According to Trade.xyz, markets on Hyperliquid have traded over approximately $650 billion in the past year; ICE is also planning to invest, but the amount hasn't been disclosed.
Druckenmiller is also endorsing this round.
OKX current price is about 87.4, 24h high about 87.5, low about 78.2, Beijing daily open around 79.9.
The story is big, but who can trade, when it will launch, and which contracts will be listed are all still undecided.
To me, it looks more like a licensing narrative to boost sentiment first.
First, watch if it can hold around 83–85, don’t let it drop back to 80 in one breath; if 4H closes below about 80, consider this "US perpetual" story deflated for now.
Do you believe ICE entering can push HYPE’s valuation up a notch, or do you think it’s all just sentiment play before approval?
$HYPE
$BTC #美加稳定币监管推进，社区银行获邀入场 #ETF has been buying for three consecutive days, but $BTC still hasn't held above 81,000
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of $423.6 million over three days. The number alone isn't small, but BlackRock's IBIT has taken almost all of it, accounting for nearly 99%, while other products like Fidelity and Grayscale are basically zero.
Meanwhile, data from Galaxy Research shows that hedge funds have reduced their ETF exposure by about 68,000 $BTC during the same period, becoming the main force behind institutional outflows this round.
ETF is buying, leveraged funds are selling‼️
Retail investors and hedge funds are rotating holdings; ETF inflows are not new bullish capital but a reshuffling of existing chips.
At the same time, the Ethereum ETF has seen outflows for three consecutive days, totaling $170 million.
The role ETFs are playing now is that of a shock absorber; they can hold the bottom but cannot support the trend.
A $420 million inflow over three days still can't fill the previous hole compared to a net outflow of $200 million in October.
$BTC #BTC ETH spot ETFThe Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, but the statement's wording of "inflation remains high, and further rate hikes are not ruled out" put short-term pressure on $BTC causing volatility.
The core logic is simple: no rate cuts → no easing of dollar liquidity → high US Treasury yields → funds prefer "interest-bearing safe assets" over highly volatile BTC. So maintaining the status quo is not a major negative, but "higher rates for longer" will continue to suppress the crypto market until rate cut expectations truly emerge.
In the short term, BTC is likely to remain range-bound with leveraged funds sensitive and prone to sharp spikes up and down. The medium-term trend depends on two variables: first, whether US CPI, non-farm payrolls, and other data cool down; second, the flow of spot BTC ETF funds — sustained net inflows are the signal for a market restart.
In summary: no surprises or shocks, but in a "tight monetary" cycle, Bitcoin is unlikely to have an independent major rally; patience is needed to wait for a liquidity turning point.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 HYPE This surge is not just in price, but a correction of valuation discount.
Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) mNAV has returned above 1, about 1.011, representing a net asset premium of approximately 1.1%. Net asset value per share is $10.81, quoted at $10.93, corresponding to about $85.96 for HYPE.
Simply put, mNAV reflects how much the market is willing to pay for a shell holding HYPE. Below 1 means a discount, no one is willing to pay for this exposure; above 1 means buyers start to compete, marking the transition from cold to hot.
The catalyst is news: ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, plans to cooperate with Trade.xyz to introduce perpetual contracts into the regulated US market. Perpetuals are the most profitable and sensitive segment of on-chain derivatives, previously only available offshore. Now, with a mainstream exchange group willing to operate under compliance, the entire sector is being repriced, and $HYPE is breaking through $87 accordingly.
A reminder: the 1.1% premium is very thin; a moderate bearish candle can push mNAV back below 1. Returning above 1 does not mean it has stabilized. Premiums rely on sentiment, discounts on redemption pressure; repeated friction around 1 is normal. Don’t mistake a single breakthrough as trend confirmation. To follow this line, wait for a pullback near net asset value for a more stable entry.MicroStrategy (Strategy) passed a resolution on the 28th that its STRF, STRC, STRK, and STRD will all switch to daily dividends.
Among them, STRC will start on November 1, and STRF / STRK / STRD will take effect from January 1, 2027.
Dividends are calculated every calendar day (including weekends and holidays) and paid on the next business day. The annualized dividend rate remains unchanged, only the dividend frequency is adjusted.
Changing from semi-monthly/quarterly to daily is mainly to reduce price volatility caused by ex-dividend dates, allowing STRC to more stably maintain around $100, optimizing the holding experience, and making STRC closer to a high-yield USD instrument that can sustain financing.
The company currently has about $5.08 billion in USD reserves + cash, and the official website shows it can cover about 3.4 years of dividend and interest payments for $MSTR October 29 four-hour structure bottom divergence, subsequent market analysis:
The four-hour ETH candlestick is currently right at the Bollinger middle band at 2333. The most critical signal is that the MACD's DIF has already crossed above the DEA, and the red bars are starting to expand, marking the first sign of a bullish rebound at the four-hour level. But to pour cold water: the EMA30 above is at 2350, EMA60 at 2376, pressing down layer by layer, and the price hasn't even reclaimed EMA15 yet, indicating the rebound is currently just an oversold correction, not a trend reversal.
Short-term trading suggestions:
$BTC: Long near 79900-79400, target: around 80800-81600, stop loss: 500 points.
$ETH: Long near 2310-2290, target: around 2350-2390, stop loss: 40 points. $MAGIC MAGIC PRINTED A 0.16387 WICK, NOW SITS AT 0.08457. Volume peaked around that spike, then faded. Yet 30D still shows +62.47% against 7D at -8.43%. I respect how quickly timeframes disagree.
Does the 24h range of 0.08132–0.08524 reflect digestion or exhaustion after the drop? 🚨 SanDisk $SNDK surged 7.66% yesterday, but suddenly plunged pre-market today! Is the main force preparing to take profits?
This SanDisk rally is getting more and more exciting!
📈 Yesterday's close: $1404.77
🔥 Yesterday's gain: +7.66%
📉 Pre-market today: around $1370, down over 2%
Yesterday was a bull party, but pre-market today has started to give back profits!
More importantly, after the U.S. stock market closes tonight, SanDisk is about to release a major earnings report!
SK Hynix's performance is strong, AI storage demand remains hot, so SanDisk should benefit, but the stock price has already pulled back in advance.
My personal judgment: cautious short-term bearish, but not bearish on the mid-to-long-term storage industry.
What really matters in this earnings report is not just how much money was made, but the future NAND prices, profit margins, and performance guidance!
If the earnings beat expectations, the stock price could retest $1500.
But if the market has already priced in the good news, even good results could trigger a violent sell-off!
The biggest risk now is not being wrong on direction, but rushing in with high leverage to bet on the earnings report!
This time with SanDisk, I'd rather earn a little less than risk principal when the direction is unclear.
The real big move might come after tonight!
$SNDK Conclusion first: The global stablecoin total supply shrank by $60.8 billion over 30 days, with a recent single-day drop of $13 billion — the largest single-day decline in nearly 30 days. But the money hasn't left; it has moved from on-chain to ETFs.
DefiLlama daily series: On 10-29, global stablecoins stood at $300.297 billion, down $1.305 billion in one day, and down $6.079 billion over 30 days, $15.2 billion less than the peak of $315.5 billion on 5/17. The biggest shrinkage was in USDT: down $998 million in one day, $1.8 billion over 7 days, current price 0.99902.
Independent source Stablecoin Beat aligns: 30-day net outflow of $7.8 billion, USDT share 60.8%, signaling "net redemption."
On the opposite side: BTC spot ETFs have had net inflows for 3 consecutive days totaling $424 million, with October cumulative turning positive at +$111 million.
So the volume shrinkage is not funds leaving the market, but a change in the container.
For your wallet: On OKX, USDT savings yield 4.00% annualized, USDC 3.50%; USDC-USDT spot at 1.00097, USDC still at a premium of 9.7 basis points.
Do you trust the total supply or the ETF more? $USDT SanDisk $SNDK will release its earnings report at 4:30 AM. As retail investors, what opportunities can we seize?
Everyone can probably see the strong rebound in storage recently. It's very strong because the market has been speculating on the upcoming early morning expectations, which have basically met or exceeded expectations, so funds have bought in early to push the price up.
Here’s the key point: once the positive news is confirmed, there is a high probability of a significant pullback. Many retail investors might wait until after the announcement to go long and position themselves, but that’s exactly when institutional whales exit [because there’s no further speculative value]. Today’s Google is the best example. As for Hynix $SKHYNIX not falling, it’s because SanDisk is the last to report earnings; tomorrow the waterfall drop can be expected.
If you don’t believe it, just let time prove it.
The above is just a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.
#霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？ #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 A vacuum box is drawn between 77,781 and 82,614.
$BTC current price is 79,749, falling below 80,000 once again. Liquidations in 24 hours reached 337 million, with longs and shorts evenly split 50/50, neither side gaining an advantage. But Fibonacci doesn't lie: from 62,280 to 87,363 in this rally, the 0.382 retracement is at 77,781, 0.5 at 74,821. The 0.618 level above is at 82,614; since the daily chart lost the 50-day moving average, that level has flipped from support to a strong resistance. The price is now stuck between 77,781 and 82,614, neither rising nor falling, exactly the worst odds vacuum zone.
Capital flow is undermining the market. ETF inflows over three days total 420 million, seemingly recovering, but 136 million comes from just one IBIT, leaving net inflows over two weeks at only 67 million. ETF holders' average cost is 81,500, with price lying below, and incremental buying nearly zero. Funding rates are 0.0025% on Binance and 0.0076% on OKX, both below the 0.01% benchmark; longs are not crowded, shorts haven't pressed up — both sides are waiting. Below at 79,300 there is a nearby long magnet, while above at 82,000 there is a thick short resistance.
If the daily closes back above 82,614, the 0.618 flips bullish, then space above 83,500 can be discussed; if the daily volume breaks below 77,781, the 0.382 is lost, and the 0.5 retracement at 74,821 comes directly into range. Between 79,000 and 82,000, no action.#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
**Google Q3: Revenue Up, Profit Down, EPS Misses Expectations**
Alphabet's Q3 2026 revenue was $127.58 billion, up 25% year-over-year but below the expected $128.22 billion; GAAP net profit was $26.17 billion, down 25% year-over-year; diluted EPS was $2.12, versus an expected approximately $3.02, a clear miss.
There are two main reasons for the profit pressure:
1) **Equity investment portfolio loss of $8.66 billion** (fluctuations in holdings like SpaceX), dragging down net profit and EPS;
2) **AI infrastructure spending is burning cash heavily**: Q3 capital expenditure was $51.36 billion, free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion, negative for two consecutive quarters.
Business differentiation is very clear:
- Google Cloud revenue was $30.71 billion, up 103% year-over-year, with an operating margin soaring to 36.2%, the biggest highlight;
- Search at $63.35 billion (+12%) and YouTube ads at $11.21 billion (+9%) both missed expectations, the advertising cash machine is starting to slow down.
After-hours stock price dropped more than 10% at one point. The market is not afraid of Google lacking growth, but fears that **AI investments keep piling up, with returns first showing in the cloud, while the core advertising business slows down**.$LIT is trading at 2.9887 (+1.72%), near 24h high between 2.7496 and 3.0772.
Price is above MA5 (2.9817), MA10 (2.9423) and MA20 (2.8958), with low at 2.7830 then steady uptrend to spike at 3.0696, followed by pullback to 2.95, bullish structure intact with volume spike on 15m.
With 15.63M volume and 46.72M USDT turnover, Today +1.72% and 7D -11.80% and 30D -23.99% vs 90D +44.42% and 180D +228.87%, holding above 2.9817 keeps push toward 3.0696 high, breakdown below 2.9423 would slow momentum.Heavy short positions! On-chain whale's triple short orders are simultaneously under pressure, continuously recovering losses through funding fees
📊 Complete position breakdown
✅ BTC short position｜5X full margin
Position: -2628.81 BTC, position value 210 million U
Entry price: 76366.1 U
Unrealized P&L: -10.0731 million U
Funding fee income: +3.3008 million U
Margin: 42.1651 million U, liquidation price: 136862.78 U
✅ ETH short position｜5X full margin
Position: -106,400 ETH, position value 250 million U
Entry price: 2322.74 U
Unrealized P&L: -463,600 U
Funding fee income: +4.4096 million U
Margin: 49.5289 million U, liquidation price: 3715.59 U
✅ SOL short position｜7X full margin
Position: -721,200 SOL, position value 72.4915 million U
Entry price: 94.3346 U
Unrealized P&L: -4.4606 million U
Funding fee income: +3.8786 million U
Margin: 10.3559 million U, liquidation price: 302.16 U
Core
This whale is simultaneously betting on triple shorts for BTC, ETH, and SOL. Currently, the market is trending upward, and all three short positions are in unrealized loss.
However, it is worth noting that all three positions are continuously collecting funding fees to hedge against unrealized losses. The leverage is not aggressive, and the liquidation prices are far from the current prices, providing a sufficient safety buffer. GDP+PCE validate the Fed policy direction during the Wash era, how much direct threat does the December rate hike trade still pose? In the early morning, Wash's speech emphasized economic resilience and inflation concerns. Tonight happens to be the release of the US Q3 GDP data and September PCE data, further consolidating the Wash era's policy guidance for the Fed! Priority is on PCE, not looking at nominal data, but at how strong the secondary transmission of past energy to September inflation is, looking at core inflation monthly rate, service sector inflation, rent increases, which will further increase the probability of a December rate hike. In his early morning speech, Wash emphasized a data-driven Fed policy framework. Secondly, Wash does not accept "soft inflation," stating the Fed will not change inflation expectations. Most importantly, Wash said the Fed can tolerate energy's impact on nominal inflation (CPI shock), but cannot tolerate secondary transmission to core inflation (PCE). According to this expectation, if tonight's GDP meets expectations and maintains growth, and September PCE rises as expected, then the probability of a December rate hike will increase again. Currently, the December rate hike probability is 85.4%. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 How much direct threat does the December rate hike still pose to the market? The September inflation rise has actually been anticipated by the market through previous CPI data, and the December rate hike has been priced in by the market for nearly a month. Although the previous highest probability was only 70%, the long-term, certain pricing logic has instead allowed the market to digest in advance and complete expectation pricing. Therefore, tonight's biggest Both went bankrupt
But the outcomes differ by a huge margin
BlockFi and Bittrex got back 100%
Babel and Haru still have 0 to this day
The only difference is whether your money was kept separately,
or lent out and mixed together with others' fundsTonight at 20:30, GDP+PCE will be released simultaneously. Wash's pause is just halftime — check this test paper for the December path. The market is stuck grinding at 80,000: Polymarket closing $BTC still stands above 80,000 about 60%, touching 81k about 40%, pulling back to 79k about 25%. Don't chase the noise during the event window; do you trust the threshold to hold, or will it be pressed down a bit more first? Some say that a company buying Bitcoin is just gambling. I think you can't just look at what was bought; you have to see where the money comes from. Keeping enough cash for operations and slowly accumulating is different from borrowing money to buy and hoping the price rises to pay off debt—that's a whole different story. I wouldn't increase my own regular investments just because the company bought in; the announcement can't shield me from drawdowns. But I'm quite curious—if the boss says to hold long-term, how do they discuss this in meetings when shareholders are eager for performance?$RENDER
Decentralized GPU infrastructure has a compelling use case as AI workloads expand, but the economics deserve more attention than the narrative. Render connects distributed GPU resources with rendering and compute demand, creating a marketplace whose long-term strength depends on actual workloads. The important distinction is between speculative interest in AI tokens and recurring demand for the underlying service.$ARB
Arbitrum’s challenge is no longer simply demonstrating that Ethereum can scale through rollups. The bigger question is whether its ecosystem can retain users when competing Layer-2 networks offer similar execution advantages. Developer tools, liquidity depth, and application quality matter here. Network adoption and ARB token demand are separate variables, and conflating them can lead to an incomplete view of the ecosystem.$LLY, does the head-to-head data of retatrutide from yesterday suffice to change the competitive landscape? The company claims that in trials, its weight loss effect is twice that of the highest approved dose of Ozempic, and there is a Q3 earnings call today. Clinical results can enhance pipeline expectations, but safety, complete endpoints, and capacity still determine commercial conversion. If detailed data are robust and supply expansion is realized, the outlook will be more positive; if tolerance or production constraints emerge, I will lower peak expectations. 【BTC PA｜4H/1H】
Structure: 4H = RANGE, 1H used for support, resistance, and confirmation.
Support: 79,506.00–79,906.69 USDT.
Resistance: 80,330.33–80,527.02 USDT.
Time: Beijing Time 2026-10-29 17:10 / UTC 2026-10-29 09:10.
Risk: Structure may fail; this article is for market research information only and does not provide buy or sell instructions.
$BTC $CRV
Stellar has existed since 2014, six years older than Curve. Today it connected with Curve—Curve’s first step into a non-EVM ecosystem, with Stellar mainnet going live. Meanwhile, CRV is now at 0.3268, down 3% in 24 hours.
Curve has deployed on many chains within EVM, such as Polygon, Arbitrum, and Base, all active, but this is the first time it touches a non-EVM chain. An old protocol with an old chain, and the market’s reaction is no reaction.
I just checked OKX: CRV perpetual 24-hour trading volume is $35.6 million, but open interest is only $7.31 million, with fees hovering around 1 basis point. If there really were funds betting on this news, open interest wouldn’t be this low.
To be blunt, what Curve lacks now isn’t another chain, but new money. The pools are still there, the moat is still there, but the stablecoin market has long been divided among everyone. Opening another chain just means another pool with no one putting money in.
The price has already cast its vote. The day this kind of first-time, milestone news no longer results in a bearish candle, that’s the day I’ll come back to look at it.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 What is the outcome for those who go against the downtrend of $RE?
I started indicating at the beginning of September that RE was the best short target. Compared to AAVE, it is overvalued by 20 times, with 40 million tokens unlocked for dumping, the US stock market ending a 4-year continuous rise, extremely overvalued, the market turning bearish, competing altcoins being issued, competing tokens issued on the US stock market. Compared to the US stock market, altcoins have no fixed asset collateral, no supervision by the securities regulatory commission, no dividends, no voting rights, completely worthless paper. All these unfavorable factors are maximized, yet some people still fail to recognize the situation and buy against the wind. By October 5th, it was even pushed up to a high of 0.55, but the market is very smart. After a month of pushing against the wind, it fell back to the original point in less than 3 days. This is the power of the trend.
It is still not too late to short RE now. The US stock market is about to be fully tokenized, and by then no one will buy altcoins anymore. RE still has 800 million tokens of dumping funds not unlocked. Anyone who wants to go against the trend will be mercilessly cut down by the market. The rise of RE from September to October is an example. Buying RE now is like the last eunuch entering the palace in the Qing Dynasty. $BTC If it rebounds to 81800–82000 and faces resistance, consider light short positions with a stop loss above 82500, targeting 80500–80000.
If a stabilization signal appears in the 79000–79500 range (volume contraction stopping the decline, volume expansion recovery), short-term rebound opportunities can be considered, but strict risk control is necessary.
It is not advisable to chase orders around the middle of the range (near 80200, i.e., the current price in the screenshot) as the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable. Waiting for the price to reach the edges of the range before acting is safer.
$ETH 2310 is the key observation line. If it breaks down with volume, do not bottom fish; the lower reference is 2256. If it is supported at this level and recovers above 2350, it can be seen as a short-term stabilization signal.
If it rebounds to 2380–2400 and faces resistance, consider setting up short positions with a stop loss above 2430, targeting 2320–2300.
Overall, ETH should be approached with a defensive mindset; do not easily define a rebound as a reversal before the daily close stabilizes above 2400.
Regarding position sizing and risk control, macro uncertainties have not yet been resolved (December rate hike expectations, PCE data, tech earnings). It is recommended to keep overall positions light, prioritize conditional orders over market orders, and enforce strict stop losses. Altcoins require position control during weak phases.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 $SNDK
SanDisk is releasing its earnings after the US market closes tonight. If I had to pick one key number to watch, it’s not revenue, not EPS, but the guidance.
Remember the August 5th report? Last quarter revenue was 8.97 billion, adjusted EPS 39.25, both beating analyst expectations, yet the stock still dropped 7% after hours and fell more than 9% before the next day’s open. The drop wasn’t due to performance, but the next quarter’s guidance, which was 10.3 to 10.8 billion, slightly below what the market wanted.
For tonight, institutions expect revenue of 10.677 billion, and the company’s own guidance last quarter was 10.3 to 10.8 billion, so the expectation is right at the high end of the range. It’s like revealing the passing score before the exam; meeting it isn’t a surprise, missing it is a disaster.
I just pulled the OKX token at 1370, it’s been fluctuating between 1338 and 1421 in the last 24 hours, fees are close to zero, with a position of 89.3 million USD. The money betting on the earnings report basically hasn’t entered yet.
My view is cautious; this isn’t a simple long or short question, it’s a guessing game. The answer comes out at 4 a.m., and I’ll be watching the show from bed. Last quarter I watched it drop and didn’t dare to buy, missing out both ways, so at least this quarter I saved on fees.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #IntelQ3TerafabFoundry
#IntelQ3TerafabFoundry 🏭 Intel Q3 Oct 29 guide $15.8-16.8B midpoint $16.3B +19% YoY, consensus $16.5B +21%, non-GAAP EPS $0.38 vs $0.23 y/y, est $0.40. Options imply ±9.4% move $84.9-$102.6.
Q2: $16.1B +25% beat, Foundry $5.8B +31% YoY but $2.09B op loss, external only $293M. 18A high-vol Panther Lake HVM with High NA EUV.
Terafab: $16.8B phase-1 Musk Tesla/SpaceX near Houston, up to $119B total, TSMC talks risk Intel endorsement. YTD +158%. $BTC Our first mistake was probably calling the entire October Uptober in advance, haha.
After seeing the historical patterns so much, everyone started treating it like a calendar-based bullish signal. Before September was even over, the October charts were already moving, and profits were all planned out.
But as of October 25, BTC has dropped 4.2% this month, looking at a second consecutive red October. What’s even more painful is that the average October gain from 2020 to 2025 is still 18.1%.
I’m still quite optimistic about the market, but the calendar really can’t be taken as a guarantee of a rally. At this rate, I don’t even dare to ask what name everyone is preparing for November, lol.20261029
5. The script for Benjamin Cowen btc season 4 has already reached step 3
1. The script has a total of 9 steps, written in advance, like a weather forecast predicting you to take an umbrella
2. The first three steps have already come true, which are:
First, the price closes below 83,000
Second, first pump up to lure people in, then crash down
Third, the Federal Reserve meeting, no rate hike
3. For the remaining six steps, just follow the calendar:
Fourth, inflation data comes out, inflation will get worse
Then, oil prices surge to 120, interest rates continue to rise
Finally, US stocks fall, Bitcoin continues to slide before the end of the year
4. Every US midterm election, the fourth quarter historically always falls
5. Will the script fail?
If Bitcoin stands back above 83,000 and holds steady, the entire script is invalidated
6. Without a private key, your Bitcoin can still be stolen
1. No need to crack passwords or steal mnemonic phrases, the veteran Bitcoin wallet Electrum has already been compromised by someone
2. Specific operation process:
When you initiate a Bitcoin transfer, a malicious server will intercept it and not send it to the network, then give you a fake one. The fake transaction sends money to the hacker's address, with the last digits exactly matching what you entered, the last four characters match. Usually, we don't verify every character, just glance at it, thinking the address hasn't changed, then the transaction shows as stuck
At this point, you usually choose to manually increase the fee to speed it up, and when you do, the wallet resigns the transaction, but signs the hacker-modified one$GOOGL's earnings report triggered an immediate crash; friends looking to buy the dip should hold off!
Google's latest earnings data shows that the core cloud business growth fell short of market expectations, and AI-related revenue realization did not meet investors' imaginations. The previously high market valuation was fully bet on cloud business and AI growth, but with those expectations unmet, capital fled immediately. Coupled with the Fed's hawkish tone and the prospect of prolonged high interest rates, growth stock valuations will continue to be under pressure. These two negative factors combined caused this cliff-like drop.
Visibly on the chart, the high point was 364.5, followed by a steady weakening trend, hitting a low of 288.22 today, with the current price at 290.69. Don't be fooled by the lower shadow here; many retail investors think the price has bottomed and want to jump in to buy cheap, but this is just passive absorption after short-term panic selling, not a signal of a main force reversal. The negative sentiment from the earnings report hasn't been fully digested yet, and there are dense trapped positions above, so every rebound will see selling from those looking to exit.
The direction is firmly bearish; short in the 295-298 rebound range, with the first target at 285.
To put it plainly: this round of selling is all about the AI premium. The earnings report didn't deliver impressive results, the story can't support the high stock price, and the macro environment is weak. Don't stubbornly hold on thinking "it should rise after falling so much." Rebounds are opportunities to reduce positions and short; don't rush to catch a falling knife!
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 2 Federal Reserve hawkish signals! December rate hike probability soars, is $BTC in trouble this time?
The Federal Reserve maintained rates at 3.75%—4.00% with a 10 to 2 vote, but the real focus is not on holding rates steady, rather that two officials supported a 25 basis point hike.
The market currently estimates about a 78% chance of a rate hike in December. If this expectation continues to ferment, it is definitely not good news for BTC.
Why?
Because although $BTC has its own supply and demand logic, its short-term price is still influenced by USD liquidity, market risk appetite, and interest rate expectations.
The more hawkish the rate expectations, the more likely capital will reassess the valuation of risk assets. Those who originally expected rate cuts and planned to push BTC up with liquidity easing may have to recalculate their expectations.
But I also don’t think rate hike expectations necessarily mean $BTC must fall. The market trades on expectation gaps; if hawkish news has already been priced in, negative news might actually be absorbed later.
The real danger is believing in a rate cut bull market while completely ignoring changes in the macro environment.
If there really is a rate hike in December, do you think BTC will break support directly or absorb the negative news early and then rebound? #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #三星Q3营业利润创新高，净利润不及预期 I can't treat hoarding Bitcoin as just moving money to another place to save. When you save in a bank, you have a contract for maturity; with Bitcoin, no one promises redemption, and holding it for a long time won't automatically turn it into a deposit. When I see companies buying coins for the long term, I'm more concerned about how long their money can stay idle. If they still have to sell coins later to pay salaries or debts, then the so-called long term might also depend on cash flow. Every time I see a purchase announcement, I want to scroll down and check: when is the debt repayment scheduled?Galaxy Digital submitted an application to the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on October 29, planning to establish a national trust bank in New York to provide fiduciary investment advisory and digital asset services, integrating its business fully under the federal regulatory framework.
The company holds an extensive list of licenses: currently possessing over 50 global licenses and regulatory approvals, involving the New York State Department of Financial Services, the UK Financial Conduct Authority, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. It is not an entity bypassing regulation but a licensed institution that has operated strictly under licenses.
The significance of the application lies in the change of hierarchy. State-level trust licenses have limited scope; once granted national trust bank status, custody, fiduciary, and asset management services can directly align with federal regulatory standards, making it easier for compliance departments of traditional institutions to approve. For main institutional assets like $BTC and $ETH, this adds another licensed channel available.
However, application does not equal approval. The approval process usually takes months or even quarters and may involve public comment periods and supplementary conditions. In the short term, it is more of a sentiment boost rather than immediately realizable incremental funds.
What is worth tracking is the subsequent pace: if this company obtains approval, other large crypto institutions are likely to follow, and national trust banks may shift from isolated cases to industry standards. That would be a more substantial step in the institutionalization narrative.
Focus on $BTC, $ETH, and the crypto custody sector.$SNDK jumped from 34%, 74% to 816%, 834%, a leap of this magnitude can only be event-driven.
SanDisk is a pure NAND/flash stock after the spin-off: Q4 NAND contract prices are expected to rise by 15% to 20%, with enterprise-grade SSDs leading the increase, and AI servers driving capacity demand. Previously, concerns were about future capacity expansion and capital expenditure sustainability; now the solid demand side has pulled the valuation back.
But event-driven moves have a pattern: after realization, implied volatility falls, and further gains need new reasons to continue. So the key question here is "where to take profits," not "how much more can it rise."
Follow-up strategy: gradually reduce positions at 1400, 1450, and 1500. Don’t mistake event-driven gains for trend momentum—the fundamental divergence (demand supported by AI vs. supply with future capacity) hasn’t disappeared, it’s just that demand’s voice is louder now.