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Microsoft's earnings report
might be the most worth studying in the recent AI industry.
The latest quarter saw Azure cloud business revenue grow by 48%, exceeding Wall Street expectations.
At the same time, Microsoft's single-quarter free cash flow reached $18.6 billion, nearly $10 billion higher than market expectations.
Even with the company investing $45.2 billion to expand computing infrastructure, it still generates substantial cash.
This stands in stark contrast to the recent performance of other tech giants.
Google was sold off due to excessive AI investment, while Microsoft rose more than 3% after hours thanks to cloud business growth and cash flow performance.
Now Wall Street is beginning to differentiate which companies can truly profit from AI.
I believe Microsoft's biggest advantage is its vast enterprise customer base, which can directly integrate AI capabilities into existing cloud computing and office software businesses.
This is more competitive than a business model relying solely on financing to build data centers.
$MSFT $GOOGL $BTC
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 Core Bull-Bear Logic
Dimensions 📈 Potential Support 📉 Dominant Resistance
Capital Actual loss amount dropped to 78,000-$79,000 buy orders accumulating ETF net outflow of $312 million in October; Strategy third week buy-in reset to zero
Technical Minute-level oversold, technical rebound repair demand exists; $79,468 is the previous start low point **Liquidity of buy orders near 80,000 is "thin," only $3.4 million
Macro October FOMC held steady, short-term rate shock relieved December rate hike probability 78%-85%; 10-year US Treasury yield back above 5%; Tonight's PCE is the directional variable
Structure Realized price at 49,000 forms 30%+ buffer; exchange reserves at multi-year lows If 79,000 is effectively broken down, the support logic of the true market average price will be tested $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $NEAR vs $SOL
Both are loaded with shorts, but there's a big difference.
NEAR shorts are already underwater, and buyers are starting to push back. That's the kind of setup where a small bounce can turn ugly for sellers pretty quickly.
SOL shorts are still sitting on profits. Buyers are showing up there too, but I wouldn't rush to call a reversal.
NEAR looks like the better squeeze candidate to me. SOL still needs to prove itself.#ETF continuous inflow, BTC faces $11 billion options settlement
ETF inflow struggles to break the deadlock, BTC faces a major test with $11 billion options settlement
ETF continues to buy in, but has yet to translate into price momentum. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for three consecutive days, totaling about $424 million, with BlackRock IBIT as the main recipient. However, BTC still oscillates around $80,000, and the capital inflow has not effectively driven price recovery, indicating that the spot selling pressure above remains heavy.
Settlement window amplifies short-term volatility. On October 30, about $11 billion worth of BTC options will expire, accounting for about one-third of Deribit's open interest, with the maximum pain point at $78,000. About 70% of the Gamma exposure is concentrated in the $75,000-$82,000 range, and market makers' hedging adjustments may amplify two-way volatility around the settlement, making short-term directional signals unreliable.
The $77,000-$79,000 range below is an important demand support; breaking below weakens the trend. The $81,700 level (EMA200) above is short-term resistance, and $85,000 is the "line of life and death" that will determine whether a healthy structure can be rebuilt. Before the options settlement is finalized and macro data becomes clear, the market is likely to remain in a consolidation pattern, and the real directional choice will need to wait for capital acceptance verification after the settlement.Ripple did not obtain a trading license; it received OCC's federal national trust bank qualification, not a traditional bank!
It can manage RLUSD's reserve funds, act as a collateral trustee, and provide digital asset custody, but the issuer of RLUSD remains the same institution in New York State. However, it cannot accept deposits or make loans, and it has no FDIC insurance. Essentially, it is a federally regulated compliant custody vault.
Circle already obtained the same license in July, and many stablecoin projects are competing for this qualification to comply with the US stablecoin legislation. In the long term, this lays the groundwork for compliance; the compliance threshold in the stablecoin sector is getting higher, which is a fundamental positive.
But in the short term, don't expect XRP to surge directly. The benefit is an endorsement for the RLUSD stablecoin, not a direct buying boost for XRP. The short-term reaction is likely to be mild.
For those waiting on policy and market changes, come to the homepage study group.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $XRP #Growth of Google's cloud business by 82%, what is the return on investment in artificial intelligence? The perspective is: the core contradiction in Google's earnings report is not insufficient revenue growth, but whether profits can keep up with growth after continuous AI investment.
Revenue growth indicates that Google's core business still has resilience, but the decline in net profit and earnings per share below expectations also reflect the market's increasing demands for profit quality and cost control.
Especially in the context of intensifying AI competition, Google needs to find a balance between search advertising, cloud business, and AI infrastructure. AI may indeed open new growth opportunities, but computing power, data centers, and R&D investments will also bring huge cost pressures.
Next, I am more focused on three aspects:
1. Advertising business: Whether search advertising can maintain growth determines whether Google's foundation is solid.
2. Cloud business and AI commercialization: Whether AI investment can be converted into actual revenue, not just an increase in capital expenditure.
3. Profit margin and cash flow: Revenue growth ultimately Strategy holds 848,500 BTC but still hasn't fully profited! Bitcoin has returned to the cost line—can this really let institutional whales rest easy?
On October 29, analyst Darkfost stated that Strategy currently holds 848,517 BTC, with an overall average purchase cost of about $75,446. With BTC recently climbing back above the 2026 holding cost line of approximately $78,900, on the surface, this Bitcoin giant's position seems somewhat relieved.
But what truly deserves attention is another set of numbers.
If all purchases since 2025 and the low-level sales during this summer are included in the calculation, Darkfost estimates that the cost of this newly added position is still about $90,600, which is higher than the current BTC price. This means that although Strategy's overall average holding cost is lower, the newly added positions in the recent period are still under unrealized loss pressure.
In plain terms, the older positions were accumulated early enough at relatively low costs, providing a buffer for the overall account; but the chips bought later at higher costs, with market prices not yet recovered, naturally feel less comfortable.
Darkfost also pointed out that after pausing for several weeks, Strategy has resumed buying BTC, but there were no new purchases last week. Therefore, the positions added since 2025 have not yet realized overall profits.#نمو أعمال جوجل السحابية بنسبة 82٪، كيف هو عائد الاستثمار في الذكاء الاصطناعي؟ Alphabet’s Q3 shows why headline growth can conceal a changing earnings mix. Revenue rose 25% to $127.58B, but profit and EPS were weighed down by equity investment losses while Search missed estimates. Cloud’s 103% growth supports the spending case; planned capex still leaves execution risk high. #نمو أعمال جوجل السحابية بنسبة 82٪، كيف هو عائد الاستثمار في الذكاء الاصطناعي؟ quarter. On one hand, Google Cloud skyrocketed an incredible 103% to $30.7B fueled by AI demand. On the other hand, aggressive AI infrastructure spend pushed capital expenditures to $51.4B, leading to its first negative free cash flow downturn in decades. Wall Street is clearly hyper-focused on the near-term costs of the AI race right now.$SOL whales are moving their holdings to exchanges, with 170,000 SOL already deposited, and an even larger batch queued up behind.
The market situation is even more interesting: 70% of retail accounts are stubbornly holding long positions, but all the active sell orders are being dumped by the main players.
If the critical support at 102.2 breaks, the long liquidation cascade is likely to accelerate.
The big holders have all their chips on sell orders, while retail investors are still holding firm; at this point, the shorts are completely dominating.
#SOL
$SOL
👇Options Expiry Alert
Bitcoin options worth $10.83 billion and Ethereum options worth $776.5 million will expire tomorrow.
$BTC Max Pain: $78,000
$ETH Max Pain: $2,450
Will BTC do something before the next big move...?#Microsoft Azure grows 43%, can AI commercialization accelerate significantly? #USStocks #EarningsSeason Last night, all three companies said "I'm going to pour money into AI," and the market gave three different reactions.
Google dropped nearly 10% after hours, with 2026 capital expenditures not decreasing, and they said 2027 will see a significant increase. Revenue was 127.6 billion, and profits missed expectations again.
Microsoft rose about 3%, Azure growth was strong, and spending was more restrained than feared.
Oracle was the most outrageous, saying future cash flow will turn positive, and its stock jumped 11% during the session.
My feeling: The market isn’t against you burning money now; it wants to see when the money will come back. Whoever can clearly state the payback time gets rewarded.
Another background: The Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to hold steady, but two members voted for a rate hike, so the chance of a December hike is not small. Nasdaq futures fell 0.9% to 1.4% this morning. $QQQ perpetual yesterday peaked at 731, with 702 as the near 20-day low. I’m watching these two levels first.
What do you think will happen at tonight’s open? Will Google continue to drop or will someone buy the dip? $GOOGL $ORCL
Just my personal observation, not investment advice Analyst Darkfost's latest data shows $BTC has climbed back above the Strategy 2026 phased buying cost line (78900), but the large batch of chips accumulated since 2025 has a combined cost close to 90600 and is still in a floating loss state.
An interesting divergence: the new positions entered this year have broken even, while the earlier high-level added positions have not yet recovered. This means there are two forces at the current position. Part of the funds bought this year, after breaking even, have the intention to realize profits; the heavy positions from 2025 will treat this as a range for loss reduction and additional buying.
My view: this is not a complete trend reversal, just a phase pressure test. The real key level is 90600; only by stabilizing above this can this batch of institutional chips be considered fully out of trouble; if it fails to break through, the pressure from break-even selling can easily push the market back down.
Short-term approach: do not chase directly, treat this cost line as the boundary between strength and weakness. After standing above it, observe the sustainability; if volume is weak, prioritize guarding against profit-taking escapes; only a valid breakthrough of 90600 will turn the institutional trapped positions from potential shorts into a long alliance.$PURR essentially remains a HYPE leverage substitute: buying PURR is roughly equivalent to buying HYPE with an additional layer of structure. If you are optimistic about the Hyperliquid ecosystem, directly holding HYPE might be purer and cheaper once the discount disappears. 2. November 6 HYPE unlock: about 9.92 million HYPE (worth approximately $860 million at current prices) will unlock on 11/6, which may suppress HYPE and consequently drag down PURR as well, potentially widening the discount ([Hyperliquid Strategies]). 3. Pre-market gains: it has already risen 14% pre-market today, with most of the discount filled, reducing the safety margin for short-term chasing. Conclusions and observations: • In the long term, PURR's value depends on HYPE's price direction; PURR only makes sense to hold if you are bullish on HYPE and willing to accept the added premium/structural risk. • Key judgment variables: ① Whether HYPE can hold above $85–90; ② The actual selling pressure from the 11/6 unlock event; ③ Whether buybacks are executed with real cash (not just authorized). • If HYPE pulls back, and PURR falls back below $9 with a larger discount to NAV (e.g., <0.9x), a value entry window will be clearer; otherwise, chasing gains pre-market is generally less cost-effective.The Fed is not hawkish, but crypto prices are hawkish: BTC faces an 80,000 sell wall overhead, ETH ETF lost 270 million in five days, SOL's 100-dollar defense line pierced by a whale
The Fed remains on hold, but two members advocate for a rate hike, and risk appetite has not loosened.
$BTC has buy orders at 80,000, but the sell wall above is thicker
Geopolitical conflicts push oil prices to test $102, inflation expectations weigh on risk assets. 79,890 is the intraday low; if broken, the pullback deepens; only breaking above the 80,022 sell wall allows room for recovery.
$ETH broke 2,300, and ETFs are still withdrawing
Spot ETF net outflow of $276.4 million over a week, with only a net inflow recorded on the 23rd. The Fed changed its economic description from "steady" to "strong," the anti-inflation task is unfinished, and buyers are reluctant to catch the falling knife at this level. 2,275 is the next key level to watch.
$SOL lost the $100 mark, ETFs and whales are working together
On October 27, redemptions hit 19.16 million in one day, the worst day since last December. ETFs are withdrawing, whales are running, 96 to 100 is the last support zone; if it fails, the breakout narrative at 104 to 105 is completely invalidated.
Summary: BTC depends on whether the 80,022 sell wall can be eaten through with volume, ETH on whether 2,300 can be reclaimed, and SOL on whether 96 to 100 can hold against the dual selling pressure from ETFs and whales.
Falling every day, really miss the days when we ate meat and hotpot every day
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Intercontinental Exchange is preparing to launch a Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures market in the United States. Upon the news, HYPE saw a short-term rally.
Hyperliquid is the most representative on-chain perpetual contract platform, with matching, clearing, and positions all completed on-chain. Now, an institution operating multiple established futures exchanges plans to integrate its product into a US-regulated contract market. This is not just a regular listing; it represents a positive integration of traditional derivatives systems with on-chain liquidity.
On-chain capital reacts faster than price. Within half an hour, 12 whales opened new positions worth millions of dollars: 9 longs totaling approximately $29,317,300, 3 shorts about $8,043,500, net long $21,273,800. The most aggressive address built a long position of 150,000 HYPE, valued at $12,753,600, with an unrealized profit of $383,500. This bet is not on the hype of a single news item but on the expectation that this compliance channel will remain open continuously.
On the other hand, once perpetual liquidity is diverted through regulated channels, the fee rates and token capture ability of native on-chain platforms will need to be re-evaluated. The leading premium on HYPE must face scrutiny from traditional exchanges.
In the short term, whales are backing the longs with real money; in the medium term, the key lies in licensing and genuine trading volume. News can push the price, but whether the channel truly opens is the core of $HYPE's future valuation.【Market Real-Time Quotes】$BTC fluctuates around $81,290 (+0.51%), $ETH at $2,360 (+0.45%). The Fear & Greed Index is 51, neutral. The market entered a consolidation phase after the Federal Reserve held steady, while Strategy's bold claims are pushing the narrative of “corporate coin hoarding” to an extreme test. 👇 First, the data and original statements: 📊 Holdings: Strategy currently holds 848,517 $BTC**, accounting for over 4% of the total network supply, with an overall average cost of about **$75,446, and a total investment of approximately $64 billion. 📉 Real unrealized loss: $BTC has surpassed the 2026 cost line of $78,900, but if all purchases since 2025 and sales near this summer's low are combined, the comprehensive cost is still as high as about $90,600, so the current price remains in an unrealized loss state. 🗣️ CEO's ambition: Phong Le clearly stated that Strategy's goal is to become the largest company in the world and claimed the company holds the most Bitcoin. He also said that daily dividends will help Strategy issue the “world's strongest digital credit,” improve STRC, build the best equity MSTR, thereby increasing Bitcoin holdings and Bitcoin per share (BPS). The subtext of this statement is more important than the literal meaning. A company whose main business is business intelligence software shouting to be the largest globally is relying not on products or revenue, but on the 8 on its books $OKB OKB's order book is honestly laughable.
The daily trading volume is just over $700,000, and the market makers don't even bother canceling orders anymore; they simply give up on maintaining the order book.
Big players have completely stopped playing inside, turning it into a coin no one manages. The market is purely driven by small retail orders barely moving the water; even a slight selling pressure causes a continuous decline. With liquidity drying up like this, whoever takes the position is bound to get stuck.
#OKB
$OKB
👇#The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, December rate hike disagreements intensify Data as of 19:45: Bitcoin 80,146, down 1.48% in 24 hours, intraday low 79,675; Ethereum 2,323, down 1.63%; LINK 11.59. On the night the decision was made, it surged from 80,600 to 81,027, then slid back during the Asian session—this back and forth isn’t because someone is choosing a direction, but because no one dares to make the first move. Here's a counterintuitive point: the central bank held steady this time, yet the pricing on the trading floor for a December rate hike was pushed to around 90%. The market isn’t betting the central bank will make a mistake, but is betting on oil prices—Brent above 111, West Texas 102, with friction in the Strait of Hormuz, the energy factor alone has changed the inflation arithmetic. Are you holding a long position waiting for the 20:30 reading, or sitting out to watch? The vote was 10 to 2, with those two votes for a rate hike—one from the board and one from a regional Fed president. The chair specifically said at the press conference: political considerations played no role in this decision, with no mention of politics or elections throughout. Things that need to be actively denied usually mean someone outside is asking. During the election cycle, the White House wants low oil prices and a quiet market, while the central bank wants to maintain inflation credibility; wanting both means real interest rates must stay high—no one will be responsible for the bulls’ positions in this. Another detail most people missed: starting next autumn, policy meetings will be cut from eight times a year to six.Thursday, 2026.10.29
The Federal Reserve interest rate decision was released, maintaining the rate unchanged. The Fed's restraint on inflation has not relaxed, and the expectation for future rate hikes remains hawkish, so the possibility of a rate hike in December still exists and the probability is increasing. Therefore, the market overall continues to decline after a rebound.
On October 28, Bitcoin ETF net inflow was 137 million, Ethereum ETF net outflow was 21.4 million. Today's ETFs are expected to turn to outflows. By the way, Ethereum ETFs have had net outflows for four consecutive days.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin rebounded to around 81,800 yesterday but then faced resistance and fell. Bitcoin has been weak recently, not following the rise but instead falling, which indicates the bears are controlling the market. The market now shows a pattern of rising one day and possibly falling within 2 hours, which fits a bearish market. Therefore, it is still advisable to sell and short on rebounds. The 75,000-76,000 range remains a strong support level.
Altcoins are not mentioned recently. In a poor market environment, even a dead cat bounce in altcoins is a trap. Now is a time to wait and observe.
Regarding US stocks, especially AI stocks, this rebound is, in my opinion, a good opportunity to exit or do T trading. Although the decline in US stocks will not be as immediate as Bitcoin's, the level reached last Friday is likely not the true bottom based on the current trend.
Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index: 43 (Neutral) Bitcoin and Ethereum are telling two different stories through ETF flows.
Between Oct. 26 and Oct. 28, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $423.6M in net inflows, while spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $170.2M in net outflows.
That creates a $593.8M flow gap in Bitcoin’s favor across the three sessions.
📊 Daily breakdown:
• Oct. 26: BTC +$110.3M | ETH −$88.6M
• Oct. 27: BTC +$176.0M | ETH −$60.2M
• Oct. 28: BTC +$137.3M | ETH −$21.4M$TRUMP Why didn't the Fed raise interest rates, yet Trump Coin plummeted?
1. The Fed did not raise rates but sent a hawkish signal
On October 28, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.75%–4% range.
But several details are worth noting:
* Among the 12 voting members, 2 advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike.
* The Fed believes U.S. economic activity remains strong and inflation is still elevated.
* Market expectations for a rate hike in December have increased.
According to market reports on October 29, traders' probability expectations for a 25 basis point hike in December rose to about 79.8%, up from 73.4% a week earlier.
What does this mean?
The market might have originally expected the Fed to signal easing, but the result is: no rate hike now does not mean no rate hike later.
If the market believes rates may be higher in the future, investors might reduce allocations to high-risk assets.
Trump Coin is a typical politically narrative-driven meme coin, especially sensitive to market sentiment.
2. Positive news was priced in early, funds choose to take profits and exit
This is the second reason to consider.
Assuming the market had already anticipated no rate hike before the meeting, some funds might have bought in advance.
When the official announcement came:
1. The positive news was already priced in.
2. New buying pressure was insufficient to push prices higher.
3. Short-term traders began to take profits.
4. Price declines triggered leveraged long stop-losses or forced liquidations. This storage supercycle has shifted from a "broad-based price increase" to a structurally differentiated market: HBM and server-grade NAND continue to be driven by AI computing power, with supply and demand remaining tight; meanwhile, demand for consumer storage such as PC and mobile phones is weak, and the momentum for price increases has clearly slowed, which is the core reason for the recent sector volatility. Currently, DRAM and NAND contract prices still maintain an upward trend, but the month-on-month increase has significantly narrowed compared to the first half of the year, representing a high-level plateau rather than a cycle peak. Major manufacturers continue to allocate over 70% of advanced capacity to HBM and enterprise-grade SSDs, prioritizing long-term agreements (LTA) with cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, and Meta, locking in capacity for the next two years, further squeezing consumer supply and creating a "strong AI, weak consumer" pattern. Sector divergence is widening: bulls are betting on the HBM4 iteration and continued capital support from cloud providers, with the supply-demand gap lasting until 2027; bears worry about high valuations and large prior gains, fearing that if cloud providers cut storage purchases, prices and profits will quickly fall. 1. Summary of already released core financial reports SK Hynix ($SKHYNIX, before market on 10.28) Q3 revenue was 104.6 trillion KRW, up 328% year-on-year, operating profit was 83.33 trillion KRW, up 632% year-on-year, with profit margins reaching a historic high. Highlights: Signed long-term supply agreements with 14 leading cloud providers, locking in over half of capacity for 2027–2028, with HBM4 deliveries underway; also launched large dividends and buybacks, exceeding shareholder return expectations. Risks: Li$BTC surged overnight, then was pushed below 80,000 during the day and circled around there, now hovering around $80,200, down about 1.5% in 24 hours. ETH, SOL, and XRP have fallen even more 📉
Let's first review the timeline. At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve held steady, keeping rates between 3.75% and 4%, but in the 10-to-2 vote, two members wanted an immediate rate hike, and Waller gave no clear guidance. BTC briefly surged to around 81,700, while market bets on a December rate hike heated up, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned above 5%.
By the Asian morning session, Samsung's chip earnings missed expectations, its stock dropped over 5%, tech stocks weakened collectively, and BTC subsequently fell below 80,000, hitting a low near 79,700. Over $300 million in liquidations occurred across the network in 24 hours, mostly longs.
Interestingly, spot ETFs still saw a net inflow of about $137 million on Wednesday, the third consecutive day, with almost all purchases by BlackRock IBIT.
Next, consider two scenarios: if BTC reclaims above 80,000, it may indicate ETF buying is absorbing macro sell pressure; if tech stocks continue to fall and U.S. Treasury yields keep rising, BTC could be dragged further down.ETH's current trend is very similar to BTC, with the overall trend still bearish, dropping and then oscillating back and forth at a low level.
The daily moving averages are all pressing down on the price, with each high lower than the last, and the major bearish structure remains unchanged. Although the hourly chart held at the 2292 low and rebounded slightly upward, the volume does not support it, so this recovery strength is very limited.
Focus now on the support zone between 2280-2290 below; if it holds, it means a long period of sideways consolidation at the bottom! If this level cannot hold, a new round of decline will begin.
The key resistance above is at 2391; only by firmly standing above this level is a decent rebound possible. For now, treat this as a consolidation market $BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $AMZN, tonight's earnings report: is the market more concerned about AWS demand or investment returns? Amazon confirmed it will release Q3 results after the U.S. market closes on October 29. AI infrastructure and cloud revenue will be scrutinized alongside retail profits. If AWS growth, operating profit, and cash flow all improve simultaneously, capital expenditures will be easier to justify; if investments continue to accelerate but cloud monetization falls short, revenue growth alone will struggle to support the valuation.#DTCC证券代币化服务正式上线
"DTCC Drives $30 Trillion Assets On-Chain"
DTCC has officially launched its securities tokenization service, initially offering 34 stocks, ETFs, and government bonds as a pilot, covering an asset pool of about $30 trillion.
Twenty institutions including JPMorgan Chase and Citibank have already signed on. Depository securities are converted 1:1 into on-chain tokens, preserving all rights while enabling real-time, around-the-clock transfers.
Tokens first run on Canton and private Besu chains; essentially, this is an internal Wall Street efficiency upgrade. The real highlight will be the subsequent actual settlement and collateral flow data. $BTC 2:00 AM is just the beginning, 2:30 AM is actually the $BTC candle
2:00 AM is the decision, 2:30 AM is the market
The probability of a rate hike is about 7%, and no move is almost certain. The real pricing in words and whispers: needs an explanation of "why stop now," while at the same time keeping the option "hike in December possible." The market has priced in a rate hike in December at over 70%. If the press conference considers the "pause" just a comma, risk assets will come under pressure; and if it deliberately downplays the future path, this is the marginal turning point. Also look at the opposing voices: 2Capital Flow: ETF is bleeding, Strategy is "shifting," but the underlying structure remains intact
📉 The most direct marginal pressure comes from ETFs: In October, the total net outflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs across the U.S. was about 665.2 million, driving a total market inflow of 635.5 million, marking the largest in nearly four months. The incremental buying from the ETF channel has not yet resumed as a continuous, stable positive inflow.
⚠️ The "pause" in Strategy needs to be correctly understood: Strategy's purchases dropped to zero in the third week of October, with funds prioritized for repurchasing STRC preferred shares with an annual dividend yield as high as 12%—just from October 19 to 25, 640.5 million was spent reducing holdings to 75,446 shares, still floating a profit of about 6% at the $80,000 price level, meaning it has not exited the market.
📈 The key buffer in the underlying structure: Actual losses have decreased from the August low of 27 million, and panic selling is nearly over. The entire network has realized prices around 49,000, providing more than a 30% buffer from the current price. The foundation of the bull market has not cracked. The current tug-of-war is a chip handover between "high-level ETF buyers exiting after breaking even" and "long-term holders at low levels holding firm." $BTC $ETH $ZEC #霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？ Regulatory side: Brazil's largest private bank Itaú Unibanco has "filed" under the central bank's new regulations, becoming the first bank to officially conduct crypto trading + custody—not a new license application, but an authorized institution following a notification procedure before the 10/30 deadline.
It has been selling coins since the end of 2023, currently about fourteen or fifteen assets (including BTC/ETH/USDC), with trading + custody aligned with the "brokerage" classification. The key point: Latin America's largest bank is incorporating existing business into a compliance framework, which ≠ instant mass account openings, ≠ immediate doubling of trading volume, and certainly not a price stance.
Filing ≠ new product launch; bank notification path ≠ independent VASP authorization application. Media/regulatory disclosure tone, confidence medium-high. What do you think about Latin America's major banks becoming compliant—does it add to the "bank gateway" narrative, or is it something that should have happened long ago? $BTC $ETH $USDC Tonight at 20:30, initial jobless claims and September PCE data will be released simultaneously.
Market expectations: initial claims around 198,000–200,000 (previous value 194,000), core PCE month-over-month 0.3%, year-over-year 3.1%.
The logic is simple: employment looks at whether layoffs are rising, inflation looks at whether stickiness is confirmed. As long as initial claims remain near 200,000, the impact is limited; the real direction is determined by whether core PCE reaches or exceeds 0.3%.
My view: the data is more likely to be strong or meet expectations, which will continue to support the December rate hike expectations. In the short term, the impact on risk assets is slightly neutral to bearish, but it won't push the rate hike probability close to 100% directly. The key is still the actual reading of core PCE.
$BTC $HYPE has an unlock scheduled for early November, and the team's data activity shows that the token economy currently has about 222 million HYPE in circulation (22.2% of the total supply), with most tokens still locked. The system rates the supply pressure as high (pressure score 75): • Next unlock: 2026-11-06, categorized under team & founders, approximately 9.917 million tokens, equivalent to 4.46% of the current circulating supply; • On-chain monitoring shows that on October 28, the team-related address (HyperLabs) applied to redeem about 180,000 HYPE from staking (approximately $14.49 million), expected to arrive on November 4. Historically, this has been handled OTC through the market maker Flowdesk — meaning there will be a continuous token release window in early November. Given the already small circulating supply and limited liquidity, such concentrated unlocking usually creates real selling pressure on the price, especially near rebound neckline levels, warranting caution.Hawkish pause, bulls failed to take over
BTC 81,340 (+0.53%), ETH 2,359 (+0.39%). After the decision, BTC surged to 81,823 but met resistance and pulled back, fear and greed index at 51.
Macro pressure remains. The Fed's 10-to-2 vote maintained rates unchanged, with two members advocating for a hike. Walsh emphasized high inflation; the hawkish pause limits the upside for risk assets.
Leverage and funding: 24h total liquidations on the network reached 259 million, shorts accounted for 156 million, the rebound was driven by short covering, lacking new capital inflows. BlackRock IBIT bought 151 million, but overall ETF inflows slowed, and some earlier inflows have partially withdrawn.
Key levels:
BTC support at 80,700-81,000, break below targets 80,000; resistance at 81,500-81,750, only a steady break signals upside.
ETH support at 2,323, resistance at 2,391, reclaiming this level would indicate escaping weakness.
In short: Hawkish pause suppresses space, capital inflows slow, and bulls fail to take over. Do not chase longs; wait for BTC to hold above 81,750 or ETH to reclaim 2,390 before lightly testing longs. ARK Invest made a major buy-in after Robinhood dropped 23%, marking the largest scale in six months. This news is circulating in the stock community, but it's truly worth a look for crypto players.
Robinhood is not an ordinary broker. In its revenue structure, crypto trading contributes a significant portion; retail trading fees for BTC, ETH, and SOL directly determine its quarterly reports. So its stock price essentially serves as a leading indicator of retail trading enthusiasm.
Now that this indicator has dropped 23%, ARK has increased its position at this level, and to the largest extent in half a year. Cathie Wood's style has always been to buy more aggressively the harder the drop, but the timing of this buy-in is worth pondering—she's not betting on the broker itself, but on retail trading volume bottoming out and rebounding.
What does this mean for the crypto market? If institutions judge that retail trading enthusiasm is returning, the first beneficiaries will be the most liquid assets. $BTC is the unavoidable first stop, with ETH and SOL usually following, having greater elasticity but also lagging behind.
Of course, ARK can also be wrong; she has a history of unrealized losses. This news should not be taken as a buy signal but rather as an observation window: in the coming weeks, if exchange trading volume and on-chain active addresses rise in sync, her judgment will be validated; if they continue to shrink, this bottom-fishing will just be another case of catching a falling knife.The market keeps testing patience! Tonight's PCE is the decisive factor ⚠️
The surge and fall was unexpected, now stuck in consolidation
$BTC currently at 80300
Liquidation pain points:
Short pain point 80759 (40.239 million U)
Long pain point 79017 (42.469 million U)
Above 80500-81000 is a dense short liquidation zone
Very close, beware of sudden upward spikes
Below 79400-78800 is a dense long zone
Temporarily safe, if the 80k level breaks, it’s dangerous
$ETH
Short pain point 2331 (25.96 million U)
Long pain point 2284 (28.695 million U)
Above 2330-2360 is a liquidation cluster
Below 2300-2270 is the long lifeline
ETH follows BTC
Focus on BTC direction tonight!
Do you think when PCE lands, it will spike up first or break below 80k directly?
Personal trading record only, not investment advice
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹
#BTC财库优先股融资升温
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $HYPE
Some say this wave of HYPE is about to take off, rising 8 points in an hour. I'll pour cold water first.
The rise is real, reaching a high of 86.2. But at the same time, in the past 5 days, a huge whale sold 694,300 HYPE, cashing out $53.27 million, at an average price of over 76. Short-term it rose 8%, but someone is offloading over 50 million worth of tokens mid-term.
Putting these two facts together, I personally see this wave as a rebound, not a new round of launch. Last time I chased the high during someone else's sell-off rally, with my stop loss set below the starting point of the rise, a memory still fresh. Now I’m just watching, not taking action.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC
BTC is now at 80250, with a 24-hour low touching 79709, another day defending the 80,000 mark.
Looking at the numbers: Strategy holds 848,000 BTC, with an average cost around 75440, currently showing just over 6% unrealized profit. The 334 BTC added in early October, at an average price of 85838, are still underwater.
So the talk about returning above some cost line sounds impressive, but it's actually just a 6% buffer that can disappear in a day of decline. My own position is light; I neither added nor reduced at 80,000. What really shows me the direction is whether the 79,000 support leg holds, not the small unrealized gains above.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Don't rush to define this sharp rise as a reversal; it looks more like an emotional pulse. Twenty minutes before the FOMC results were announced, market sentiment suddenly heated up, social platforms were flooded with "bullish rebounds," BTC climbed back above 80,000, and ETH was pushed from 2330 to 2336. On the surface, it looks like a bottom confirmation, but this time window itself is worth caution: if this were truly the start of a trend-level rally, why would controlling funds choose to make a big push at a moment when the entire market is holding its breath? Are they afraid latecomers won't catch the train?
Looking at the resistance above: ETH faces tens of millions in short positions around 2377 and 2400, and BTC encounters dense resistance near 81,800 and 84,000. A surge now would hit almost entirely decompression zones of trapped chips. If big money were genuinely bullish, they wouldn't choose to be "active saints" here. A more reasonable path is: a sharp rise on low volume to heat up sentiment first. Once the meeting statement lands, as long as the wording leans hawkish or hints at a slightly tighter path for December, the chasing buyers will immediately feel the pressure. Everyone can see the bullish candle, but few think carefully about who is distributing behind it.
Therefore, there is no need for shorts to rush out. The real direction will only be clear after the FOMC shoe drops.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $ETH Just now, these few candlesticks were moving along the upper band of the 15-minute Bollinger Bands. Although the price is creeping up, the Bollinger Bands' upper and lower bands have not expanded. The 15-minute bandwidth is at a low percentile around 20%. The latest few candlesticks show reduced volume; the buying pressure hasn't pushed the upper band away.
Taking a glance at the 4-hour chart startled me. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands have contracted to the 14% percentile, and the price has been consolidating here for a long time. This pattern indicates the trend is choosing a direction. Currently, the price is still running below the 4-hour middle band; the bulls have not yet reclaimed the middle band.
Zooming out, the current price has already touched around 2328. This is a previous swing low on the daily chart, now converted into resistance. On the 4-hour chart, EMA20 and EMA50 are diverging along the downtrend. The price rebound has hit a major resistance level.
Next, I lean bearish. The daily resistance is just above, and the 4-hour EMA is pressing down. If it cannot hold above with volume, the expected trend is a pullback first, then testing support near 2290.
$BTC $SOL #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 🔥The crucial battle for BTC tonight is here! Whether 82500 can be taken will decide if the short-term bulls can further prove themselves.📊 But remember, piercing the resistance level does not equal a valid breakout.
📈 Bullish signals: a volume breakout above 82500, a pullback that doesn't break below, and short-term periods consistently closing above.
⚠️ Risk signals: after the breakout, volume doesn't keep up, and the price quickly falls back below 82500, chasing highs easily leads to getting trapped.
🧭 My approach is to wait for confirmation, not to rush the first surge. If conditions are met, then test with a small position; if it can't hold steady for a long time, it's fine to stay out and watch.
💬 Brothers, tonight are you ready to wait for confirmation to get in, or continue patiently waiting for an opportunity? #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Google crashed badly. Before yesterday's earnings report was released, the whales who kept adding positions were subsequently liquidated twice, with a total liquidation scale of nearly 10 million USD and a total loss of over 500,000 USD. Continuously adding positions on floating profits made the guy's motorcycle turn back into a bicycle.
At first, I thought this guy had some insider information, but it turns out he was just a gambler betting on the direction.Before looking at Coinbase's financial report, I first verified the Deribit migration date: the perpetual contract trading previously supported by Coinbase International Exchange was migrated to Deribit starting October 1.
This date is important because Q3 ended on September 30.
Therefore, Deribit already had business that could contribute to Q3, but operational effects generated only after the migration completed in October cannot be counted in the previous quarter. Acquisition, business consolidation, and platform migration also need to be understood separately.
I have expectations for this integration. With trading platforms and liquidity more concentrated, if the experience can be improved and customers use more products, there is a long-term opportunity to enhance competitiveness.
But these effects need to be reflected through actual trading and operational data. Completing the technical migration only means a step forward; it does not automatically prove simultaneous improvement in revenue and profit.
For this financial report, I will separate Q3 actual revenue from the company's disclosed October business progress. If management talks about customer activity and product usage after the migration, that will be more helpful in judging Q4.
The market likes to combine a string of good news into one positive, and I understand this excitement. But financial reports have clear cut-off dates. Putting future possible improvements prematurely into a quarter that has already ended can easily lead to overestimation and then disappointment.
#Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？ Samsung's Q3 earnings report is out, with 3 hardcore signals at the trading level👇
1️⃣ Quarterly performance structure is singular
Out of 107 trillion KRW net profit, the semiconductor division contributed 99% of pure profit
The mobile division suffered a loss of 0.8 trillion KRW. The core business of AI storage and HBM is fully tied to the future revenue and profit development of AI storage and HBM, making sensitivity extremely high.
2️⃣ Positive factors realized
Both revenue and operating Eli Lilly LLY Q3 Earnings Preview: The Game and Concerns Under High GLP-1 Growth
$LLY will release its Q3 earnings report and hold a conference call at 22:00 Beijing time on October 29.
Market consensus expectations: revenue of $22.61 billion, adjusted EPS of $6.26. The core anchor of this earnings report remains the GLP-1 pipeline, which is also the market's pricing focus.
Mounjaro and Zepbound prescription volumes are expected to continue rising, with capacity release driving strong overall revenue growth; however, ongoing US healthcare cost controls continue to suppress individual product prices, combined with increased expenses from capacity expansion, R&D investment, and external acquisitions, profit growth is very likely to lag behind revenue growth, limiting earnings leverage.
Subsequent market scenarios are divided into three:
1. Revenue and dual-drug sales exceed expectations, with an upward revision of full-year guidance → stock price strengthens;
2. Data just meets expectations, likely leading to a positive realization followed by a pullback;
3. Weight loss drug prescription growth falls short of expectations, or guidance is lowered → valuation pressure causes a decline.
Long-term risks come from new competing products from Novo Nordisk and others, and continued price reductions on the payer side. Unlike AI giants with high capital expenditures and cash burn, Eli Lilly is a pharmaceutical growth stock with solid cash flow, better suited for waiting for a pullback before investing.
Key tracking points: sales of the two core drugs, clinical progress of retatrutide, and full-year revenue guidance.
#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 #医药#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 I am the Mid-term Intelligence Brother.
The Federal Reserve maintains the interest rate at 3.75%-4.00%, as expected but not truly positive news. The vote was 10 to 2, with two members supporting a rate hike, indicating increased hawkish divergence. The economic assessment was upgraded to "strong expansion" but inflation concerns remain.
Market reactions are mixed. U.S. stocks rose slightly, the dollar retreated, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.02%. High oil prices increase inflation risks, the Bank of Canada raised rates, and global currencies have not shifted toward easing.
Tonight at 20:30, focus on the U.S. Q3 GDP and September PCE, which is the second round of tests and will trigger the next wave of volatility.
For $BTC and $ETH, the pause in rate hikes has been priced in. If data is hotter, BTC may test 80,000, and ETH could see a larger decline; only if PCE cools down and U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar retreat will the rebound be sustainable.
$ZEC
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 It's almost 7 PM, brothers, have you eaten and drunk enough? The market is dragging without direction, but I just glanced at the data of several popular altcoins. This is not a lack of market activity; it's clearly a massacre orchestrated by the main players. Let me quickly review it for you all.
First, look at $HYPE, current price 85.6, it directly pulled up a big bullish candle. The 4-hour long-short ratio shot up to 2.19, and open interest surged sharply. This shows the main players are aggressively buying with real money, and retail investors are frantically following. Although the position is heavy, the momentum is very strong. Don't lightly try to top pick in this kind of short squeeze market.
Next, look at $NEAR, current price 4.41, it plunged nearly 6%. The most ridiculous thing is the long-short ratio, which was forcibly raised from a bottom of 1.59 to 2.25. This means the more it falls, the more retail investors buy, all crazily bottom fishing! With so many long leverages, the main players won't pump unless they wash out the bottom fish.
Finally, look at $ZEC, current price 1270, it is drifting down 3.3%. The long-short ratio is stuck at an extremely low 0.79, and open interest is still decreasing. Retail investors are crazily shorting at the top; the shorts are extremely crowded. This kind of extreme inverse data means that once the market gains some strength, it will most likely trigger a short squeeze.
Summary: The main players are causing localized moves now. HYPE is violently pumping, NEAR is baiting longs to kill them, and ZEC is brewing a short squeeze. Don't chase the highs or sell the lows now; if you don't understand, just hold your hands.
What are you holding tonight? What do you think about these popular altcoins? Are you bullish or bearish?
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 The evening market feels chilling. After the FOMC announcement, the market didn't celebrate; instead, it just laid flat ahead of the GDP and PCE data releases. BTC barely held around 80,200, ETH directly dropped to 2,310, and SOL was the worst at 100.19, on the verge of breaking below 100. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $259 million, with shorts liquidated at $156 million and longs only $103 million. Those who chased shorts a few days ago have now become fuel, but that doesn't mean the bulls have won; the price hasn't rallied at all.
The ETF side is even stranger. BTC spot ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive days, with BlackRock's IBIT buying $136 million in one day; institutions are quietly accumulating, but ETH saw net outflows, showing a bias in funds. BTC dominance surged to 60.1%, and altcoin liquidity is being drained.
Data will be released tonight at 20:30. If the data is strong, rate hike expectations will heat up, and BTC may dip to 79,500; if the data is moderate, there might be a chance to test 81,500.
Based on my current positions, the strategy is clear: longs on ETH at 2308 and SOL at 104.31 are holding firm. ETH's bottom line is 2280; if it breaks, cut losses. SOL's critical point is 100; if it closes below 100, reduce positions. BTC is watching the 79,500 support; don't move before the data release. Keep leverage within 5x; tonight, don't bet on direction but on who gives up first after the data is out. Preserving capital is more important than anything. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 🔥No rate hike does not equal a full bull market! Today's performance of the three major coins already shows that capital attitudes toward different assets are diverging.
📊 BTC bounced above 81,000 but then fell below 80,000; short-term support still needs confirmation. ETF inflows are a positive signal, but continuity is more important than single-day data.
⚠️ ETH is currently one to watch patiently; before reclaiming 2400, rashly treating the rebound as a reversal carries significant risk. Institutional capital outflows are worth noting, but price and subsequent flow must also be considered.
🌱 SOL is relatively strong; the Alpenglow upgrade provides an independent catalyst for the market, but "strong narrative" does not mean "price only rises without falling."
🛡️ Don’t chase highs or blindly bottom-fish; wait for signals to appear first. Brothers, if you could only pick one key focus, would you watch BTC’s critical levels, ETH’s 2400, or SOL’s sustained strength? #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #GoogleQ3MixedResults