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A while ago, a buddy reminded me to check the token unlock calendar.
I didn't take it seriously at the time,
thinking unlocking is just unlocking, how much impact could it have?
Later, a few days before $APT unlocked, the price started to rise,
and the group began shouting about a breakout.
I couldn't resist and chased a bit.
On the day of the unlock, as soon as the volume came out, the price directly crashed down.
I stared at the market dumbfounded for a long time,
not sure whether to cut losses or hold on.
In the end, I sold at a small loss.
After that, I started checking the unlock schedule.
Turns out every month some projects release volume,
pulling up before unlock and crashing down after.
The pattern is as old as time.
For $ARB, I later just observed and didn't chase.
I simply avoided looking at it a few days before and after unlock.
I keep $USDC as a buffer in my hand,
not letting a single impulse mess up my position.
Now before buying, I check two things first:
Is there a large unlock coming up?
Who gets the unlocked tokens — the team or early investors?
If the answer is unclear, I just hold off.
No matter how noisy the group is, I don't follow.
Unlocking doesn't necessarily mean a drop,
but at least don't rush in at the sharp edge.
If you really believe in it, wait until the volume is fully released before deciding.
Rushing in for a moment's gain,
you'll be the one losing. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期
#三星Q3营业利润创新高，净利润不及预期 This aligns with the institutionalization trend and is not a buy signal. BlackRock's iShares plans to launch PBIT, offering Bitcoin exposure through options, with a single batch of options having an initial maximum loss of about 10% and capped upside.
I see three aspects of the trend: direction, product filling is somewhat positive; capital, filing does not equal inflow; price, news needs trend confirmation. If the protection design is accepted, then the fear of decline may ease.
Trend is the best friend; I won't jump the gun. When facing this kind of news, do you all use trading volume or moving averages to judge the trend?Spreading out the barn ledger, the total harvest is slightly underwhelming, but the experimental field's row of cloud seedlings is growing faster than anyone else — that's the first impression Alphabet's quarterly report gives. Revenue reached 127.58 billion, up 25% year-over-year, just a bit short of the community's forecast; net profit dropped about 25%, with diluted earnings per share at $2.12, also missing the mark. As an old farmer squinting, the problem isn't with the crops themselves but with a few bags of investment inventory in the barn that have gone moldy — equity investments lost money, so the books don't look good.
But if you only sigh over the total ledger, you're seeing the field too shallowly. Google Cloud, that experimental plot, grew crazily by 103% year-over-year, beating the forecast line; meanwhile, the old cornfield of Search didn't meet expectations. It's like a cornfield cultivated for over a decade suddenly overshadowed by a newly opened vegetable patch next door. The company also nailed down the 2026 expenses for buying farm machinery and fertilizers between 195 billion and 205 billion, clearly stating — 2027 will see even more. Isn't this the wisdom only old hands understand? The land needs nurturing, the moisture must be preserved; spreading more fertilizer now is for the soil's strength three to five years down the road, not just tomorrow's basket of vegetables.
Looking at the neighboring slope's XPLTR, it's connected to this weather. The harder Google swings its big hoe of capital expenditure, the looser the soil becomes in computing power, data, and AI frontiers, so the seedlings there naturally grow with the wind. The linkage of token assets ultimately comes down to the same cloud and rain belt — upstream big farmers willing to invest in the land bring life to downstream seed, fertilizer, and farm machinery shops. But the old farmer must speak plainly upfront: until those moldy accounts in the barn are cleared, the books won't be tidy. Speculators watch the daily weather; farmers watch the seasonal soil moisture. If you pull seedlings during the grain filling stage, the autumn harvest will be shriveled; if you rush to harvest right after plowing, you'll only get weeds. Alphabet's ledger — slightly underwhelming total harvest, experimental field's crazy growth, and the old farmer still investing — these three things together form a game that must be played slowly according to the four seasons, not a market day deal of weighing and sowing. #googleq3mixedresultsA computing power commitment of $53.7 billion has already been placed at the center of the board, and every opponent across from me is also my piece supplier—this game was never about fundraising from the first move; it’s a list of sacrificed pieces with all the midgame forces mortgaged in advance.
Burry’s opened record shows about 537 billion in computing power and infrastructure commitments. Note, this is not a "planned expenditure," but a forced move already recorded in the game: once placed, it takes effect immediately, with no take-backs. What truly chills a grandmaster’s spine isn’t the number, but the structure. Amazon and Google simultaneously occupy three seats—investor, supplier, and sales channel. In the player’s terms: half of my computing power is supplied by my opponent, every attack I make must pass through squares controlled by the opponent, and even after my pawns promote, I still pay taxes to the opponent. This is circular financing, called self-feeding pieces on the board. The most dangerous thing is never being in check, but thinking you’re attacking while every step actually adjusts the opponent’s formation.
The 537 billion must be realized through revenue growth; this is a lone pawn advancing deep into enemy lines: no supporting chain behind, every square ahead controlled, whether it can promote depends entirely on whether the midgame can hold until the endgame. Burry isn’t asking "is the revenue fast enough?" but "is this pawn line fake?"
Looking at the retail quota, it’s 15% to 20%. Pushing the pawns on the rear wing to the front line, leaving them to be guarded by the spectators—there’s an ancient name for this in the game record: human shields. The opening invites the audience in, the midgame burdens the audience, and in the endgame, the audience is left with only a single constrained knight.
The linkage of tokenized assets like $xAMD is a flank restraint. The main battlefield is computing power, but the point of restraint is liquidity: when core assets are bound by triple identities, any exchange triggers a chain reaction—suppliers become creditors, investors become channels, channels become valuation anchors. At that point, valuation isn’t calculated, it’s forced out.
The detail I care about most is: the initiative in this situation is not in the hands of the bettors at all. Burry isn’t predicting prices; he’s pointing out a structural hanging piece—all the heavy pieces hang on the same diagonal line, and if anyone nudges it lightly, the entire line collapses.
The endgame hasn’t started yet, but the king already has nowhere to castle on the open line. #anthropiccomputescrutinyFeeling great! This round of shorting SanDisk earned a 40% profit, I'm cashing out first. 🤌
From a technical perspective, the daily chart is directly suppressed under the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, a classic bearish alignment. 1412 slid all the way down, with a death cross pointing down and volume still surging. This is not a shakeout with shrinking volume; it's clearly funds pulling out.
The earnings report is coming tonight. Many think revenue will definitely rise, but don't get too excited yet. Last time in Q2, despite a 6.5% beat, the market was still crushed badly. Just look at SK Hynix next door; the market no longer cares how well you did last quarter, only your next quarter's outlook. This script looks like "good news fully priced in," so a drop is normal.
I entered this position at 1371.9, targeting 1250 first. Tonight, I'm mainly watching the show; if it doesn't break down, I'll hold on.
Brothers, what do you think about tonight's earnings? Will it break through 1250 directly, or will the main players pull a "deep V" fakeout? Comment below and guess if I can double this position again tonight? 👇
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ $SNDK 97.5 billion USD is not a skyline, but a giant load-bearing beam welded onto the balance sheet—Meta's latest financing directly presses the ambition of AI infrastructure into the load-bearing layer. The initial 37.5 billion was just the foundation pile; the maximum 60 billion in 2027 is the construction permit renewal. The total "planned height" of 97.5 billion is already approaching structural limits; the 25 billion in common stock subscriptions received about five times demand, like pre-sale blueprints being snapped up, indicating the market is willing to buy the facade renderings first. But what really determines whether the building can stand is another 12.5 billion in mandatory convertible preferred securities, with a 6.5% annual interest rate. That’s not decorative lines, but continuous energy-consuming pipelines embedded in the load-bearing walls.
Free cash flow turned negative in Q3, signaling the basement is starting to leak. The above-ground floors are still being added, but the underground drainage is unfinished. Any supertall building knows what this means: it’s not that construction can’t continue, but each floor must use more expensive steel, denser joints, and stricter deformation monitoring. The annual capital expenditure guidance of 135 to 145 billion USD is equivalent to erecting multiple tower cranes simultaneously; the supply of concrete, formwork turnover, and cash flow recovery must be perfectly synchronized. If even one tower crane waits for materials, the entire construction organization begins to incur financing costs.
NVIDIA’s 3 billion and AMD’s 1 billion investments are more like strategic embedded components, not just financial investments—they bind the computing power supply chain and capital chain into the same structural system, enhancing local stiffness but also making node stress more complex. The problem returns to the stiffest main beam: can AI spending generate enough cash flow to cover investment and financing costs? The design drawings can be infinitely elevated, but operating cash flow is the live load on the floors; if the live load doesn’t rise, the 6.5% dividend and convertible terms will become layers of additional dead load. XHOOD’s linked pricing essentially watches whether this construction schedule shows a "superstructure faster than foundation acceptance" mismatch.
In construction, the most dangerous thing is not the building height, but sudden changes in vertical stiffness. The fivefold subscription on the financing side gives confidence in the facade, but negative free cash flow, steep capital expenditure increases, and interest-bearing preferred securities combined represent a typical high-level transfer layer: impressive in appearance, but the load path requires repeated verification. The white paper is just a design drawing, the financing announcement just a start order; what truly determines project value is basement waterproofing, main beam reinforcement, and the arrival time of every truckload of concrete. 97.5 billion is not height, but load; before cash flow turns positive, every additional floor is a judgment on the foundation. #metafinancingto97.5b$BTC dropped to 80,000 at 09:49, and the Hyperliquid 40x position I wrote about yesterday was liquidated again. This time it was a long position: 33.71 BTC were liquidated exactly at 80,000, resulting in a loss of about 47,000 USD. Yesterday at 16:35, its short position of 77.69 BTC was liquidated at 81,700. In less than 18 hours, both long and short sides took a hit. In between, it actually made a profit once: at 2 AM, it flipped long with 303.57 BTC at 80,789, and closed at 81,287 around 4 AM,$UNITREE Everyone says the big A market is bullish, let's analyze Unitree.
First, look at the stock price: it dropped from a high of 739 to 662, down nearly 5% today. But I won't talk about candlesticks; I'll directly tell you who's selling and who's buying.
On the capital side, there was a net outflow of 246 million in large orders. What does that mean? Big money sold 2.631 billion today but only bought 2.385 billion. Net selling of 246 million means they're running.
In plain language:
Super large holders are selling, medium holders are buying. Big money is handing chips to retail investors and small speculators who rushed in.
The leaderboard is even more brutal: net outflow of 260 million.
On October 26, the leaderboard showed a total net outflow of 260 million. The top five buyers combined only bought 556 million. Looks like a lot? But look who is buying: CICC Shanghai, Guotai Haitong, CITIC Shanghai branch—all are speculative seats.
This kind of leaderboard structure means institutions are selling, speculators are buying. What are speculators? They buy today, sell tomorrow, short-term fighting, and dump after running. Once speculators withdraw, who will support?
Unitree rose from 404 to 739, doubling, and after that, super large funds are using earnings report good news to massively unload. Speculators and retail investors are taking the high-level chips.
A 477x PE ratio, profits still declining, tell me what is holding this up?
#霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？ $AXIS plunged from 0.2276 to 0.1393, down 38.8%, while $BTC fell just 1.27%. A fresh low of 0.1366 suggests token-specific selling pressure. 📉 Key Market Signals: • No spot market on OKX: Only AXIS-USDT perpetuals are available. • Extreme funding: Rates hit -1% before settling at -0.63% every 2 hours, potentially costing shorts around 7.6% daily. • Open interest doubled: Rising from 1.18M to 2.34M, suggesting fresh positions are entering despite the crash. • 2.12% discount: Perpetual prices traAt 3 a.m. on the sounding chart, a warm and humid airflow from Wall Street is rising—it’s neither a typhoon nor a cold front, but a 2% Bitcoin cloud cluster being forcefully inserted into the pressure belt of traditional assets.
The old rule of the National Meteorological Center: to judge the weather, don’t look at what the clouds look like, but how much moisture they carry and which guiding airflow they follow. The WBMO released by VanEck this time essentially packs stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin into the same sounding balloon, with Bitcoin’s weight anchored at 2%, adjustable between 1% and 5%. This figure alone looks like a small disturbance in the upper-level jet stream, insignificant; but you must understand, atmospheric circulation is never driven by big chunks, but by those trace components that persist and accumulate continuously. The 2% is that tracer; once it enters the initial field of the regular mode, every subsequent assimilation will include it.
Franklin Templeton is even more worth watching. FBEQ and FIBT start with about 95% U.S. stocks and 5% Bitcoin, and plan to use stock dividends to continue increasing Bitcoin holdings. What is this action called in meteorology? It’s called precipitation echo self-enhancement—originally just a weak echo, it feeds itself bigger through continuous moisture supply. Dividends are a stable inflow, directing it into Bitcoin exposure, effectively connecting a continuously flowing water pipe to this cloud system.
More crucial is the shift in circulation patterns. In the past, the asset management industry treated Bitcoin like an isolated thunderstorm cell: watching from afar, marking risks, and avoiding it. Now, from dividend reinvestment to multi-asset portfolios, it is modeled as a permanent member of the climate system. When multiple institutions simultaneously write 1% to 5% exposure into their strategy documents, this is no longer a single weather event but a migrating climate state. I have seen it many times: when a variable is first included in a long-term statistical series, everyone says it’s too noisy; but when it appears continuously in forecasts for three quarters, it becomes part of the baseline state.
But the forecaster’s duty is to report risks, not visions. The adjustable range of 1% to 5% translates into a very wide uncertainty interval in forecast language. A 5% Bitcoin exposure stacked on 95% U.S. stocks equals coupling two high-volatility systems; the variance of the coupled system is not additive but resonantly amplified. When a liquidity cold snap hits, correlations will instantly soar close to 1, and the insulation layer of diversification will fail on the spot. This is not a black swan; it’s a frontal zone that numerical models should have flagged long ago.
As for $xUSAR and similar U.S. stock token targets, their linkage with this multi-asset portfolio is like the superposition of sea and land breezes with valley winds: watching stock wind direction during the day and crypto wind direction at night, the misalignment of switching nodes is the turbulence most easily underestimated.
Finally, a professional judgment: when asset managers start using dividends—the most stable cash flow—to feed Bitcoin exposure, this upgrades Bitcoin from a weather event to a climate factor—and the first stress test of this new climate state will not happen on a sunny day. #vaneckfranklinbtcetfsIf I were to write it as a strategy, I would set one rule: if the distribution volume of long-term holders decreases, then lower the alert level for selling pressure, but do not trigger a bullish signal. Quantitative beginners are most afraid of mistaking "selling less" for "price going up" 🤖
PANews cited data from CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.: from October 22 to 29, the 30-day distribution volume of BTC long-term holders dropped from 310,000 to 240,000, a 22% decrease; MVRV fell from 1.67 to 1.65, with profit buffer narrowing by 2 percentage points.
I think this is more suitable as a risk filtering condition. A slowdown in distribution indicates that the recent reduction in holdings has weakened; however, a decline in the 30-day rolling total does not mean daily improvement; this group still holds 65% unrealized profits, and subsequent realization cannot be ruled out. My rule would add a "monitor daily changes" step to avoid being misled by window effects. Would everyone require continuous improvement over several days, or add some other conditions? $xQQQ is very likely to open sharply lower today due to Google's earnings report. The key question is whether it can rebound. One factor for a rebound is the trend of Hynix, but Hynix's stock price was dragged down sharply after Samsung Electronics released its earnings report, so let's first see how the close goes.
Then, if QQQ really opens sharply lower at the market open, we need to watch the capital inflow within the first half hour. Also, Amazon is releasing its earnings report after hours, so if you really want to speculate, the best moment to watch is the market reaction after Amazon's earnings release.
I also mentioned this in yesterday's video and have been sharing it with everyone these past few days through videos and push notifications: use traditional stocks to hedge or directly stop loss, mainly with traditional pharmaceutical and financial companies that have already released earnings reports, to guard against sudden events in big tech. #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $UNI
While others are still debating bulls and bears, there's a rather niche on-chain metric: 13,137 new UNI addresses were added yesterday, the highest since September 2020; daily active addresses reached 14,591, a one-year high. This is according to Santiment's statistics.
Coincidentally, UNI's current price is hovering around $7, at 7.05, down 2% in 24 hours and about a quarter down over the past month.
A surge in addresses with a stagnant price—I've seen this combo a few times. Most of the time, it's not a reversal; it means there are genuinely buyers picking up below $7, and those engaging with interactions are back. v4 and Unichain are continuously progressing.
My judgment: one person can open ten wallets, so the address count is heavily inflated. Until spot trading picks up again, I consider this noise. I’m neither short nor long at this level; let the addresses run for a while first.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC
The Federal Reserve stands pat, with a 10 to 2 vote, leaning hawkish. BTC fell below $80,000 within an hour, hitting a low of 79,700, even lower on Binance at 79,667, now barely climbing back around 80,100.
This is already the third time this week testing the 80,000 line. The previous two times it bounced back, but this time I think it's different—the two dissenters are the ones wanting a rate cut, so the December uncertainty is basically gone.
The contract funding rate is still 0.034%, longs are still paying to hold, and the $2.59 billion open interest hasn't budged. Breaking the level without reducing positions—this isn't panic selling, it's holding firm.
Last time it broke 80,000 I took a short-term long and made a small profit before exiting. This time I don't even bother watching the order book. Testing the same line three times, I might get itchy on the fourth, but at least this time I'm holding back.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady, December Rate Hike Disagreement Heats Up
$BTC $ETH $ZEC This Federal Reserve decision looks calm on the surface but is actually turbulent beneath.
The rate remains unchanged, as everyone expected, but the core details directly rewrite the short-term macro rhythm:
Voting ratio 10:2, with two members directly demanding a 25BP rate hike.
This is a very critical signal:
The pause is not the end, just waiting for data; this rate hike cycle is far from over.
The biggest market game now has completely shifted from "Will there be a rate cut?"
to: "Will there be another hike in December?"
Current market pricing: the probability of a December rate hike has surged significantly, and expectations for "long-term maintenance" of high interest rates have been reinforced again.
1. Gold Market Structure Going Forward
The core pressure on gold remains high real interest rates.
With the Fed keeping the rate hike option on the table, gold is unlikely to break out into a bullish trend.
The market will continue to trade within a range:
At this stage, gold: no trend, suppressed, only range trading.
2. BTC Core Logic Going Forward
BTC is currently in the most awkward position:
Macro is hawkish and suppressive, funds are propping up the market
Without easing expectations, there is no large-scale bull market structure.
All the rises are short-term rallies driven by ETF funds and on-exchange sentiment, without macro backing. Does the CORE Foundation still have cards up its sleeve? Looking at its trump cards from the TVL data
On-chain native DeFi TVL has shrunk significantly, DEX daily trading volume is only a few hundred dollars, the ecosystem application layer is nearly in shock, and many people doubt that the foundation has no cards left to play. But the foundation's trump cards have never relied on retail DeFi funds; its strategic focus has long shifted to the Bitcoin Power Grid route, moving from a token subsidy model to business revenue-driven token buybacks. ✅ The foundation's remaining trump cards: 1. Institutional BTC staking and LST liquidity staking products: Collaborating with custodians like BitGo and Hex Trust to offer lstBTC products targeting institutional clients, focusing on institutional BTC yield needs. This is its most core card and does not depend on retail DeFi trading income. 2. SatPay roadmap: Binding yield-generating BTC assets to payment debit cards, enabling staked BTC to create real-world consumption scenarios, attempting to generate protocol-native revenue, then using that revenue to buy back CORE, creating a token value flywheel. 3. Dual staking mechanism and Satoshi Plus consensus: Self-custodied BTC staking is a differentiated core and the main distinguishing point from other BTCFi competitors. ❌ However, these trump cards have major shortcomings:
All these trump cards are blueprints pending implementation, not yet proven businesses. Currently, independent validators continue to withdraw, 69 million ghost tokens loom overhead, and the on-chain DeFi ecosystem is bleeding, which are unavoidable obstacles facing the foundation.Wall Street has not rejected tokenized stocks. It has simply launched its own version, one that maintains the same ownership rights. DTCC's tokenization service went live today. Most people would see this as a headline. For $ONDO holders, the important and more useful part is smaller. What was actually launched: 1. DTC, a subsidiary of DTCC that holds most U.S. securities, can now create tokenized versions of the securities it holds. 2. These are digital twins of traditional securities with the Those chasing a breakout above 80,000 were buried with $356 million today.
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, but in the 10-to-2 vote, two members advocated for an immediate rate hike.
BTC surged to 81,823 before turning down, falling below 80,000 in the Asian session, hitting a low of 79,710.
$356 million liquidated in 24 hours, with $205 million from longs.
Before the decision, spot ETFs saw net inflows for three consecutive days, with over $100 million inflow on both the 26th and 27th, showing strong commitment from contrarian funds.
I think this is not a trend reversal; no one is willing to chase prices above 82,000, and the hawkish votes scared off leverage. The chips are changing hands, not crashing.
My approach: observe and do not chase.
Only if the daily closes back above 80,000 and volume expands past 82,000 will the breakout be confirmed; if it falls below 79,000, do not catch the falling knife, next support is at 75,000.
Before the PCE release, do you think 80,000 will be reclaimed by bulls first or broken through by bears?
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #FedDecision I wonder how long memes can stay popular, so I check the price when there's no movement to see what the community is still talking about. Some people create their own images, tweak jokes, and debate how to play with memes—that's what really keeps the momentum going. If all you see are constant calls to pump and questions about when it will be listed, then the cost of maintaining hype is just too high; you have to pay people to shout. I'm not against grassroots efforts, but some groups, after scrolling through for a while, haven't even changed their emojis and just keep pasting contract addresses—that's some serious saving on content costs.$AVAX, will the risk aversion in tech stocks continue to transmit to public blockchains? When Asian tech stocks weaken, crypto assets also fall together. CoinDesk recorded about $356 million in futures liquidations over 24 hours. High beta usually reflects financing and position shrinkage first. If spot trading picks up and leverage cools down, the price structure will improve; if the decline is accompanied by liquidations and net spot selling, I would consider the rebound a fragile recovery.$BTC dropped to 80,000 at 09:49, and the Hyperliquid 40x position I wrote about yesterday was liquidated again. This time it was a long position: 33.71 BTC were liquidated exactly at 80,000, resulting in a loss of about 47,000 USD. Yesterday at 16:35, its short position of 77.69 BTC was liquidated at 81,700. In less than 18 hours, both long and short sides took a hit. In between, it actually made a profit once: at 2 AM, it flipped long with 303.57 BTC at 80,789, and closed at 81,287 around 4 AM,Russia Introduces Unified Crypto "Qualification Exam": Annual Limit for Non-Qualified Investors Only $3,200
On October 28, according to Russian media RBC, the National Association of Securities Market Participants of Russia (NAUFOR) disclosed that Russia plans to launch a unified crypto investor testing framework, with the draft standard submitted to the central bank.
Core Rules:
Mutual Recognition of Scores: Investors who pass the test at any licensed intermediary will have their scores recognized across regulated platforms.
Tiered Access: Qualified investors who pass the advanced test can access a wide range of assets; non-qualified investors who pass the basic test can only buy high-liquidity assets on the whitelist.
Strict Limit: Non-qualified investors have an annual trading limit of 300,000 rubles (approximately $3,200) through a single intermediary. This rule took effect in September.
Timeline: Brokers will start offering testing services as early as the end of November 2026.
Cold Reflection:
Understanding the rules reveals that Russia's so-called "openness" is actually a highly stringent "capital control move." The $3,200 annual trading limit is lower than the retail thresholds in many countries; the asset whitelist and mandatory unified exam essentially lock funds within the domestic licensed system to prevent capital outflow.
Given the current macro geopolitical environment, policy changes are frequent. Do not equate "licensed and regulated" with "safe," and do not blindly trust Russia's embrace of Crypto; compliance often comes with very high friction costs.
Disclaimer: This is an objective summary of publicly available regulatory information and does not constitute any investment advice.$IRYS This dog pump has to liquidate me while I'm eating, just 0.1% short of it
Still holding $ETH, I knew it would drop again, not that easy to buy at the bottom, tried to buy early, but it's still falling...
Margin is enough, slowly pulling the bottom average line, waiting for a sudden 3% rise in one day to start making profits, no worries
$BTC Strategy will submit the report early tomorrow morning.
The earnings report will be released after the US stock market closes, and the conference call will be at 5 AM Asia time on Friday.
Q: How good will the book look?
A: The company already announced in early October that the estimated digital asset revenue for Q3 is 20.91 billion USD.
Last quarter had a loss of 8.32 billion USD.
Turned positive in one quarter, the reason is simple: the coin price rose this quarter, and the fair value (marked-to-market) accounting is directly included in profit and loss.
Q: What should we listen for in the call?
A: Their average holding price is about 75,446 USD, and the current price is not far from this line.
Last week they neither bought nor sold coins, but used cash to repurchase STRC (Strategy's floating dividend perpetual preferred shares).
I want to hear whether they will prioritize buying coins or protecting STRC with this money.
20.9 billion looks good, but that's last quarter's report. #Strategy財報前瞻：BTC帳面收益大幅反彈 2.12, seeing the long-short ratio of OKEx BTC contracts, I recalled a bit of life experience: even if everyone at the table agrees on something, you still have to see how much responsibility each is willing to bear. Each short account corresponds to 2.12 long accounts, which is slightly higher than 24 hours ago; the excitement is indeed on the bullish side.
After I retired and studied this data, I feared mistaking "more people" for "more money" the most. This indicator only counts accounts, not positions, so my judgment is: it’s more like a sentiment thermometer and cannot alone confirm that $BTC’s upward momentum is stronger. If the bulls continue to cluster, I guess when the reverse volatility comes, more people might be caught off guard; but right now, you can’t say it’s already extreme just based on 2.12.
A reminder to young friends: don’t use the majority’s direction to skip your own judgment. When you look at this ratio, do you first check changes in position size, or do you first see if the price has kept up?Alphabet's quarterly report has issues beyond just revenue missing expectations; cash burn is also intensifying simultaneously. These two factors combined caused the pre-market stock price in the US to drop 10%.
Let's start with the logic. When tech heavyweight stocks face valuation cuts, the market isn't just selling a single company but the narrative of "overvalued growth." When risk appetite declines, high beta assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are usually sold off first because they have the best liquidity and can be dumped fastest. On these earnings nights, the crypto market often moves in tandem with US stocks.
Cash burn is even more important to watch than revenue. The AI race has pushed capital expenditures to historic highs, and market patience is narrowing: you can burn money, but you have to show a path to returns. Once investors doubt the input-output ratio, the valuation anchor for growth stocks loosens, and money will first withdraw into cash.
For the crypto market, there are usually two scenarios. One is a synchronized decline, indicating overall liquidity contraction and risk aversion dominance; the other is Bitcoin strengthening, indicating funds are using it to hedge valuation risk of dollar assets. Which scenario occurs provides more information than how much prices fall.
Focus on two points. The real movement after the US market opens tonight—pre-market 10% drop does not equal a closing dump; and whether Bitcoin's recent support holds—holding means portfolio adjustment, breaking means overall risk appetite shift.
The direction of $BTC and $ETH tonight is more important than this earnings report itself. Don't use pre-market numbers to predict crypto prices.Google $GOOGL Earnings Review: The Report Isn't Bad, So Why Did the Stock Price Plunge?
Five Key Metrics at a Glance
Revenue: Strong growth, advertising revenue slightly below expectations
Capital Expenditure: 200 billion invested for the year, benefiting the upstream computing power industry chain
Free Cash Flow: -9.1 billion, negative for two consecutive quarters, cash burn faster than revenue realization
Google Cloud: Core highlight, revenue up 103% year-over-year, orders gradually recognized as revenue
Guidance: Capital expenditure continues to rise sharply through 2027, short-term pressure on cloud profit margins
Core Reasons for the Decline
1. Earlier expectations were too high, triggering a Sell the news reaction
2. High interest rates suppress valuations, amplifying negative sentiment
3. AI enters the second validation phase: shifting from competing on investment to competing on profitability returns, market doubts ROI on investment
Follow-up Focus
Tonight's PCE/GDP macro data + Amazon earnings
Microsoft's earnings are stable, Amazon's results will determine cloud sector sentiment
Short-term technical rebound possible, this is valuation digestion, AI's fundamental logic remains intact
Simultaneously track Amazon earnings and AI sector inflection points, visit the homepage study group
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $CORE price really turned out just as I expected, a dead cat bounce, and it looks like the retail investors in the Orbit are quite happy, after all, it's decentralized, haha, it's hilarious. Decentralization means that the previously promised banks, buybacks, have nothing to do with them anymore, you understand? They are basically telling you openly. Bro, I've made enough money, I'm out. Still fantasizing here? If they had any vision, why would they be so reluctant to pump the price even at such a low level? Look at the liquidity pool of this coin, buy orders are in the millions, sell orders are in the tens of millions, and this is even with 300 million staked. The smartest move by the project team is a soft exit. They set up bots to fake some trading volume, leave some money inside. Just waiting for the exchange to delist it, and you can't say a word, after all, they haven't run away, delisting has nothing to do with the project team. Another point, the project team has been anonymous from start to finish, who are you going to sue? You don't even know which country they're from. Stop dreaming, everyone, it's time to wake up, do you really want to lose everything?$DOGE short sellers are losing money to dump the market, this scene looks more and more familiar to me.
At the 0.077 level, the funding rate was forcibly pressed into a deep negative value. Retail investors pay interest every day to push the price down, but when you check the Binance whale long-short ratio, it quietly climbed above 2.6.
Big whales are picking up bloodied chips at the bottom, while shorts are digging into their pockets to hold on hard. Now this short squeeze is too crowded; just a little spot buying to spark a fire will cause a stampede of liquidations straight upwards.
#DOGE
$DOGE
👇550,000 $OKB directly rushed into the market, big holders all know what they're preparing to do.
The current order book depth is as thin as paper, with very few buy orders. Large sell orders near 110 are pressing down hard; any slight rise gets smashed.
Leverage shows no movement, purely relying on spot trading to hold the bottom.
Inventory suddenly surged by one-third, with no support below; bulls at this position are purely holding on desperately, any small selling pressure can easily break through.
#OKB
$OKB
👇#Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady, December Rate Hike Disagreement Intensifies
• $BTC (BTC): After the decision, it briefly surged to about $81,000–$81,700, then retreated to the $79,700–$80,300 range, with a 24-hour decline of approximately 1.1%–1.6%. At times, it fell below the key $80,000 level.
• $ETH (ETH): Around $2,300–$2,320, with a 24-hour drop of about 1.5%–2.1%.
• $XRP: Experienced a relatively larger decline, near $1.29, down about 2%–3% in 24 hours.
• Overall Market: Total cryptocurrency market cap fell about 1.4% to around $2.80 trillion.
Market Interpretation:
• Holding rates steady is inherently "neutral to slightly positive," with no immediate rate hike, leading to an initial rebound.
• However, the statement was hawkish (emphasizing persistent high inflation, two members advocating for a rate hike, removal of some dovish language), combined with rising market expectations for a December hike, higher US Treasury yields, and cautious risk sentiment, causing the rebound to quickly fade.
• Other factors: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, some tech stock earnings impacts, and leveraged liquidations (several hundred million dollars in positions liquidated within 24 hours) also intensified selling pressure.
• Regarding ETFs: Recent inflows continue but have not fully offset macroeconomic pressures. Reviewing Google's earnings report, although not excellent, why did the stock price "crash"? In this Monday's macro minutes, I clearly outlined four key factors to watch for the three major cloud providers: revenue + AI capital expenditure + free cash flow + future guidance. For Google itself, there are five key factors to watch: revenue + AI capital expenditure + free cash flow + future guidance + Google Cloud. So what answers did Google's earnings report provide? Revenue: Slightly below expectations, not bad, but the result is problematic; absolute growth is strong, but market expectations are stronger, slightly below expectations, mainly due to advertising revenue being slightly below expectations. AI capital expenditure: The company continues to maintain high capital expenditure, investing 200 billion yuan for the full year. This clarifies the demand validation logic for the entire AI infrastructure chain in data centers upstream, including Nvidia, Broadcom, HBM, optical modules, servers, and power. Free cash flow: -9.1 billion, negative free cash flow in Q2 this year, capital expenditure is too large, revenue cannot keep up. #Google Q3 revenue growth, net profit decline, earnings per share below expectations. Google Cloud: Still the strongest data in the earnings report, 30.71 billion growth with a synchronized increase of 103%, more than 55% of which will be recognized as revenue in the next 24 months. This data proves that Google's AI infrastructure has begun to generate large-scale revenue. Future guidance: Capital expenditure will significantly increase in 2027, TPU systems will see significant volume growth in 2027, but due to tight AI computing power supply, Google has started using third-party computing The Federal Reserve stands pat, don't mistake it for a bullish frenzy🔥
Nan Feng hits the point with one sentence: pausing rate hikes ≠ shifting to easing!
Interest rates remain at 3.75%-4%, which meets expectations, with a vote of 10:2, two members stubbornly pushing for a 25bp hike!
The December split has exploded, the narrative of a prolonged high-rate battle is far from over.
$BTC is stuck near 80,000 with shrinking volume
Rate hike expectations hang overhead, funds dare not rush in
$ETH is a typical follower, with no independent support at all
ETF outflows continue, in a tight macro cycle it can only follow the big market, waiting for the leader
$SOL has elasticity, but can't withstand emotional stampedes
The 100-dollar mark is the lifeline, hold if defended, prioritize reducing positions to hedge if broken
Is this sideways movement a buildup or a boiling frog?
$BTC $ETH $SOLA while ago, a buddy reminded me to check the token unlock calendar.
I didn't take it seriously at the time,
thinking unlocking is just unlocking, how much impact could it have?
Later, a few days before $APT unlocked, the price started to rise,
and the group began shouting about a breakout.
I couldn't resist and chased a bit.
On the day of the unlock, as soon as the volume came out, the price directly crashed down.
I stared at the market dumbfounded for a long time,
not sure whether to cut losses or hold on.
In the end, I sold at a small loss.
After that, I started checking the unlock schedule.
Turns out every month some projects release volume,
pulling up before unlock and crashing after.
The pattern is as old as time.
For $ARB, I later just observed and didn't chase.
I simply avoided looking at it a few days before and after unlock.
I keep $USDC as a buffer in my hand,
not letting a single impulse mess up my position.
Now before buying, I check two things first:
Whether there’s a large unlock coming up recently,
And who the unlocked tokens go to — the team or early investors.
If the answer is unclear, I just hold off.
No matter how noisy the group gets, I don’t follow.
Unlocking doesn’t necessarily mean a drop,
but at least don’t rush in at the sharp edge.
If you really believe in it, wait until the volume is fully released before deciding.
Rushing in for a moment,
you’re the one who loses. #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期
#三星Q3营业利润创新高，净利润不及预期 Seeing this kind of product that sets boundaries on volatility, I get a bit of a familiar feeling from the last cycle: beyond the market, institutions are always figuring out how to get more capital to accept Bitcoin. But this time, the selling point isn't about exaggerating the upside potential, but actively giving up a portion of it.
BlackRock's iShares Trust has filed documents to launch PBIT, planned to go live in January 2027. It does not directly hold Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETPs, but instead constructs exposure by referencing IBIT options combined with short-duration fixed income assets; the initial maximum loss per option batch is about 10%, and the upside is capped.
I prefer to see it as a signal of the industry's competition for risk budget rather than a short-term catalyst. Not holding the coin directly cannot be simply equated with new spot buying; exchanging upside potential for downside protection targets a different type of risk appetite capital. My judgment is that product stratification is more important than sentiment stimulation, and next we will see whether this design can truly meet demand.Yesterday's FOMC meeting had a very funny market reaction; I wonder if everyone saw it last night. First, the result was no rate hike, which met market expectations. At the moment the announcement was made, the market didn't fluctuate much, but in the second half, when Waller started speaking, the market became very interesting, moving up and down. This is shown in the boxed area in the picture below. Some said Waller was talking nonsense here, but actually, Waller's speech was very sly, without any substantial content! I think maybe quantitative bots were using AI to interpret Waller's speech—when he sounded dovish, the market went up; when he sounded hawkish, it went down. One person's question was very critical, asking if there would be another rate hike in December! Waller basically didn't give a direct answer, just saying he couldn't predict the voting outcome of the committee and needed more information. Currently, according to the probabilities predicted on Polymarket, there is still a 78% chance of a rate hike, with an increase of 25 basis points. If there is a rate hike in December, and Waller also says the FOMC meetings will be held less frequently, then the probability of a rate cut in the first half of next year is very low, which is not a good outcome! Tonight, there is also PCE data (Personal Consumption Expenditures) to watch closely, currently estimated at 3.1, with the previous value at 3.3. If this data is below 3.1, it is positive because inflation is under control; if it is higher, it means inflation is not under control, so we can expect big market fluctuations tonight. To add about the pre-market data during the day, the market dropped 1 point mainly because of GoogleUndercurrent of broad declines: BTC holds firm at 80,000, SOL faces massive whale sell-off, ANT bets on AI IPO
As of October 29, 16:09, mainstream perpetual contracts are all in the red. When Bitcoin repeatedly fails to hold the 80,000 USD mark, the game is no longer about the candlestick itself.
$BTC: 80,000 is the cost line for bulls and bears. Quoted at 79,930 USD (-1.70%). The suppressing factors are not endogenous negatives but geopolitical tensions and cautiousness ahead of tech earnings reports. The probability of the FOMC maintaining rates is over 90%, with the core game focused on the statement. The tug-of-war at 80,000 is the cost line for bulls and bears to calibrate macro uncertainty.
$SOL: Whales vote with their feet. At 99.90 USD (-2.42%). Bloomberg reports it is shifting towards tokenization, favored by institutions like Morgan Stanley. But on-chain, a certain whale sold 1.02 million SOL over 5 days. Institutional entry is in long-term options, whale selling reflects near-term reality, with price choosing to price downward.
$ANTROPICUSDT: Pricing expectations. Quoted at 185.54 USD, a Pre-IPO contract. Its price reflects consensus betting on Anthropic’s IPO valuation, rather than spot continuous bidding, with liquidity structure differing from the norm.
Summary: Currently in a "macro defense + structural differentiation" phase. BTC awaits FOMC clarity, SOL watches the 100 USD threshold, ANT carries high-threshold uncertainty. The biggest risk amid broad declines is mismatch between position sizing and underlying logic.
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $GOOGL Most chips bet on Google's earnings exceeding market expectations, trapped?
Google's earnings all fell short of market expectations, with free cash flow at -$9.065 billion, far below market expectations.
Long-term debt rose directly from $21.6 billion a year ago to $125.1 billion. The burn rate of AI investment has been rapidly amplified.
Currently, quite a lot of money has been invested in the AI project, but the monetization rate is relatively low.
And the earnings report overall does not meet market expectations, causing intense disappointment in the market. Whales and institutions are continuously selling off their chips.
Its early OpenAI plan was to purchase Google AI chips to reduce dependence on Nvidia, so many friends were betting on Google's earnings exceeding market expectations.
As a result, they got trapped in the 323-328 range, with a 10% drop intraday. Chai Ge suggests that friends who are trapped should cut losses in time. When the US stock market opens at night, selling pressure will only get stronger.
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #谷歌AI高层重组，核心人才流失引关注 Google's Q3 revenue grew but net profit declined, and earnings per share missed expectations. The pressure on tech stocks is spreading to leveraged semiconductor products, with SOXL sharply falling today. My judgment is that short-term risks have not yet been fully released, so control your position before discussing opportunities.
Current price is 99.19, down 5.6% in 24 hours, dropping from an intraday high of 109.17 to 96.2. Trading volume is 7.016 million, with selling clearly dominant—the top 10 bid-ask ratio is only 0.66; the funding rate remains positive at 0.0141%, with open interest at 533,000. Bulls have not fully exited. Although there was a rebound in the 1-hour chart, the 4-hour trend is downward, still 23.34% below the 4-hour high, casting doubt on the strength of the rebound.
Strategically, do not chase the rebound. Wait for a pullback near 97.35 to lightly test long positions, with a strict stop loss set at 95.68 and a target of 104.62. If it breaks below 95.68 directly, exit and wait. Single position size should not exceed 20% of total capital. Stop losses on leveraged products must be executed mechanically without leaving room for luck.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SOXL#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
$SOXL Now I have found a problem: the inflow situation of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs is completely different. Also, why can't the continuous inflow of spot ETFs improve Bitcoin's market, even though this rebound reached 81,700 but then pulled back? Can the market recover?
Bitcoin spot ETF inflows this week are as follows:
October 26: Net inflow of $110.3 million
October 27: Net inflow of $176 million
October 28: Net inflow of $137.3 million
There have been net inflows for three consecutive trading days this week. On October 28 alone, the net inflow was $137.3 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $136 million. The total inflow over the past three trading days is $423.6 million, indicating a certain degree of institutional capital recovery. However, the inflows are mainly concentrated in IBIT, and participation from other funds remains limited, so it is necessary to observe whether the subsequent capital can continue to flow in.
Ethereum spot inflow situation is as follows:
October 26: Net outflow of $88.6 million
October 27: Net outflow of $60.2 million
October 28: Net outflow of $21.4 million
The capital situation of Ethereum and Bitcoin is completely different. Ethereum has had outflows for three consecutive days this week, but compared to the first two days, the outflow has started to narrow. Now it depends on whether the outflow can continue to shrink and then turn back into net inflow. Otherwise, the situation for Ethereum is still not optimistic.When I see this message, what comes to mind is not the examinees, but the examiners. After crypto assets enter traditional financial channels, who explains the risks and to what extent may carry more weight than a qualified report card.
According to Russia's RBC, Ekaterina Andreeva, First Deputy Chairman of the Russian Securities Market Participants Association, stated that the investor testing standards for purchasing cryptocurrencies on regulated platforms in Russia have been completed, and the draft was submitted last week to the Central Bank of Russia's Basic Standards Committee. Brokerage firms will be the first to qualify for testing clients, expected to start as early as the end of November.
My judgment is that the bigger focus of this matter is whether the service capabilities of brokerage firms will be revalued, rather than how many potential buyers the crypto market gains. The test brings investors to the counter and also poses a question to brokers: can they explain complex risks in plain language, rather than just teaching clients to check answers.
If the risks involved in the test correspond to product presentation and trading prompts, then my speculation is that brokers will need to supplement the corresponding explanatory capabilities. Conversely, if passing the test is misread by users as "suitable for purchase," trust in traditional financial channels may instead obscure the risks inherent in the assets themselves.
Therefore, I will continue to watch the test content rather than hastily label it as positive news. If you are going to participate in such a test, which risk do you most hope brokers must clearly explain before you are willing to continue learning about the product? #Can SanDisk's storage business high growth continue? ETH at $2310, are you panicking?
The ETF dumped $1.2 billion in a month, retail investors are complaining, but a giant whale quietly increased its holdings to 5% of the total supply—just now, the price is stuck at the "cost line + 200-day EMA" critical support between 2307-2317, RSI dropped near 30, the bulls and bears are all at this knife-edge.
First, look at the surface: bearish pressure is overwhelming, price is dancing on the edge of a cliff.
In the past month, ETH fell from 2800 to 2310, a drop of 13-16%, and today it fell another 1.5-2%. The US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of $1.2-1.26 billion in one month, close to the highest monthly outflow in history. BlackRock's product is the main force dumping the market.
When you open your account, are you already calculating "if it drops another 10%, I'll cut losses"?
First thing: institutions are selling, but another group of institutions is "building positions with your panic".
ETF outflow of $1.2 billion sounds scary. But guess who is buying at the same time?
BitMine—holding 6.05 million ETH, about 4.95% of total supply, last week even added 10,000 ETH and staked a large amount.
In the same market, BlackRock is selling, BitMine is buying. Signs of whales shifting from BTC to ETH are also emerging. Staking volume hit a record 43.8 million ETH, about 36% of supply locked.
What you see is "ETF dumping," smart money sees "discounted ETH supply being locked up." Exchange reserves continue to decline, circulating supply is thinning—this is not a sign of collapse, but a sign of a squeeze.
Second thing: the number 2310 is not randomly stuck.
200-day EMA: about 2307-2317
Realized price (average cost of all network positions): about 2310
Current price: 2310
Three lines converge at the same point.
What does this mean?
Most of the market's cost basis is here. Breaking below means collective losses and panic selling; holding means "cost base defense succeeded," a local bottom is established.
Also, the daily RSI has dropped near 30—oversold zone. The probability of a technical rebound is accumulating. Volume shows signs of defense at support.
Third thing: tonight's data is the real trigger.
On October 28, the FOMC held steady as expected, no big impact. The real bomb is today's (October 29) Q3 GDP preliminary + September core PCE.
Weak GDP + moderate inflation → December rate hike expectations cool → risk assets loosen → ETH rebounds directly
Strong GDP + sticky inflation → rate hike pricing intensifies → 10-year US Treasury yield at 5% continues to suppress non-yielding assets → ETH tests 2295 or even 2200
Bulls vs bears, you decide
On one side:
200-day EMA + realized price + current price, three lines converge into strong support at 2307-2317
RSI oversold (near 30), technical rebound window
BitMine holding 5%+ and continuously adding, 36% supply staked and locked
Signs of whales shifting from BTC to ETH
On the other side:
ETF monthly outflow of $1.2 billion, institutional selling pressure continues
ETH/BTC weak, underperforming the market
10-year US Treasury yield at 5%, high real rates suppress risk assets
Inflation rate rising, deflation narrative weakens temporarily
Breaking below 2295 daily close opens downside space
Key levels
Resistance above: 2430-2455 (20/50-day EMA) → 2500 → 2520-2570 → 2750-2800
Support below: 2295 (recent low) → 2280-2230 → 2200 (structural buy zone) → 1970-2100
Trading strategy
Medium-term longs (preferred):
Hold 2295-2310 and see a stop-fall candlestick (hammer/engulfing + volume), enter light and scale in. First target 2430-2455 to take partial profits, second target 2500-2550. Strict stop loss below 2280, total position risk ≤ 1-2% of account. Add more if it holds above 2400 and retests without breaking.
Short-term shorts (speculative):
If rebound meets resistance at 2430-2455 and falls back, try light short positions, target retest 2310-2295, stop loss 2470-2500. Add more if it breaks below 2295 daily close, target 2200.
Long-term dollar-cost averaging:
Increase DCA below 2200. 36% staked locked supply + declining exchange reserves + ETF maturation is the long-term fundamental logic, short-term capital flow does not change mid-term structure.
ETH now is like Bitcoin in March 2020—
On the day of the 312 crash, everyone shouted "crypto is dead," and what happened?
Those who cut losses in panic were speechless looking at the charts three months later. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Alphabet's earnings report has sparked market concerns about AI infrastructure investment and profitability returns, causing Nasdaq 100 futures to fall about 1% pre-market, with some data even showing deeper declines. Tech stocks may be the main source of pressure tonight.
A tech stock pullback could drag down the broader market, but if financials, industrials, and other sectors remain stable, the S&P's decline might be less than Nasdaq's. Pre-market futures showed a drop of about 0.2% to 0.5%, with quotes fluctuating over time.
I lean toward a scenario tonight where the US tech sector opens lower or remains under pressure, and BTC oscillates weakly, but if tech stocks quickly recover after the open, BTC might also see a reverse correction.In the early bull phase, after BTC stands above the STH-RP, until the phase peak:
In 2019, it basically did not retest the STH-MVRV mean line; in 2023 it retested once; this round has already retested twice.
But this early bull phase is not as strong as the previous two rounds, so will the pullback also not be too deep?
Still repeating a few old views:
(1) The early bull structure hasn't changed. Whether from the on-chain structure or the candlestick structure, it is currently the early bull phase.
(2) The 365D SMA is about 77.4K. In past bear-to-bull transitions, except for the 2020 COVID black swan, the early bull phase rarely sustained an effective break below this.
(3) The STH-RP is about 75.7K. Just in case, and I mean just in case, if it really returns to the 77.4K-75.7K range, that should be an opportunity, not panic. Anyway, I think the probability is very small.
(4) Today the 128DMA just crossed above the 200DMA; let's see if it can hold above. $BTC #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 On the evening of October 28, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.75%-4.00%, with a vote of 10 to 2. On the surface, it seemed calm, but beneath the surface, there were undercurrents: the probability of a rate hike in December rose from 78% the day before to 86%. This is not standing still; it clearly shows "next time we will act" written on the face, and the market hears it loud and clear. Current price check: BTC around $81,250, up 0.54% in 24 hours; ETH around $2,357; SOL around $102. BTC just broke above 81,000, but the footing is not yet firm. On Friday at 08:00 UTC, about $1.09 billion in BTC options will expire, with the maximum pain point at $78,000, about 4% below the current price. The put/call ratio is 0.53, with calls still in the majority, but the maximum pain point acts like a magnet at 78,000. The closer the price gets to it, the more market makers’ hedging positions are pulled toward it. I think the script for this round of the market has already been written for the first half: the Fed not raising rates gave a breather, and the options expiration gave direction. Holding above 81,000 means after the Friday expiration, there will be a shakeout followed by a continuation upward; breaking below the 80,000 whole number, and then losing the 78,000 maximum pain point, means this rebound was in vain. The invalidation condition is stated upfront: if the daily close falls below 78,000, the above judgment is void—don’t stubbornly hold on. Source: Federal Reserve decision and December rate hike probability according to CoinDesk live update on October 28; options data from Deribit, reported by Binance News on October 28; prices from Co美联储刚按兵不动，利率钉在3.75%-4%，市场却先在ETF账本上表了态。 Farside数据显示，10月28日美国现货比特币ETF单日净流入1.373亿美元，其中贝莱德IBIT独揽1.36亿，Bitwise的BITB只添了130万，其余产品清一色零流入。 连上周一、周二的1.1亿和1.76亿，比特币ETF三天合计吸金约4.23亿美元，几乎把整个10月的净流出抹平了。 可另一边的以太坊ETF偏偏唱反调：同一天净流出2140万，ETHA一家就跑了4480万，10月累计流出已高达13.2亿美元。 币价也照出了这份分裂：BTC现报约79793美元，24小时跌1.42%，ETH约2308美元，跌2%，一个在接，一个在撤。 我觉得这不是什么牛回速回的信号，而是机构在用脚投票做取舍：先把子弹留给大饼，再看以太坊能不能自己止血。 关键位也明明白白：BTC上方阻力81800美元，下方支撑78000美元，站上阻力才算续上，跌破支撑这出独角戏就得散场。 来源：Farside Investors、KuCoin快讯、CoinGecko，数据截至10月29日上午。 你站哪边，是信大饼继续吸金反弹，还是赌以太坊先Bitwise says Bitcoin will be $1.6 million in 2036.
It's $80,000 now, still up 19 times.
Of that 19 times, 80% is bet on one thing:
Bitcoin will take away a quarter of the money that gold holds "as deposits."
To put it simply, the world has $31 trillion held as deposits in gold. All Bitcoin combined is only $1.6 trillion, just 5% of gold.
If Bitcoin not only fails to take any share but also loses half of its 5%, the pool itself will grow, and in ten years it will be $130,000.
Up 60%, about 5% per year. You can get that number by buying an index fund too.
The $1.6 million price is not because he saw the future.
He has a chart with a blank:
How much Bitcoin can take from gold.
Fill the blank with 25%, the chart calculates $1.6 million.
Fill it with 2.5%, it calculates $130,000.
You can fill this chart yourself.
Hougan filled it smaller last year, $1.3 million.
This year he filled it bigger, so it became $1.6 million.
The coin is still the same coin; what changed is the number he filled in.
If you want to buy Bitcoin, calculate it at $130,000. $1.6 million is like a lottery ticket. $INIT At this moment, the market is completely a bull hunt for shorts. The price could surge sharply at any time due to short liquidations, but after the surge, it is also very likely to face large-scale profit-taking pressure from the bulls. Hold your hand, do not chase the highs. $BTC back to eighty thousand, but the money hasn't followed
The night before the Fed meeting, $BTC stood back at 81,000.
It did rise, but leverage hasn't moved.
How this number is calculated:
Open interest is almost flat, and perpetual positions have slightly decreased.
This indicates that this buying wave wasn't fueled by borrowed money.
Common misread:
The long-short ratio is 1.34, with many long positions.
More positions don't equal more money; daily momentum is still weak.
On the $ETH side, spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of $88.58 million.
2,300 is the bottom line; only standing back at 2,350 counts as recovery.
Price moves first, positions don't follow.
This kind of rebound looks lively but few are joining.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
#$BTC $ETH Bitcoin has been interesting these days: buyers are increasing, sellers are decreasing.
On October 28 Eastern Time, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $137 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows. More extreme is the structure—BlackRock's IBIT alone contributed about $136 million, Bitwise's BITB only $1.3 million, and other products were basically insignificant.
On the other hand, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of about $21.4 million on the same day. With inflows on one side and outflows on the other, institutional money clearly prefers to bet on Bitcoin.
On-chain data is even more worth pondering. From October 22 to 29, the 30-day distribution volume of long-term holders dropped from about 310,000 to about 240,000, a 22% decrease. During the same period, LTH's MVRV slightly decreased from 1.67 to 1.65. With the current price anchored near $80,000, this group’s average cost is about $48,000, still floating a 65% profit—profits are substantial, yet fewer are willing to sell.
On one side, the ETF channel continues to attract funds; on the other, long-term holders are actively holding back. The $80,000 level has become demand-driven rather than supply-driven. Of course, this data is only from the window of October 22 to 29, so don’t take it as a long-term conclusion.
By the way: ZEC’s mainnet celebrated its 10th anniversary, rising about 8% on October 28, reaching nearly $1,320 at its peak, bringing the privacy narrative back into discussion. $BTC $ETH $ZEC