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📅 October 29, 2026 · BlackRock's Two Algorithms
🚨 BlackRock made two completely opposite directional moves today.
On-chain data shows that BlackRock transferred nearly $200 million worth of ETH to Coinbase through four transactions in the past two days, with the most recent one 15 hours ago, suspected to be preparing for a sell-off. At the same time, its Bitcoin ETF wallet received a total of 3,441 BTC from Coinbase Prime, valued at about $276.7 million.
This is not a small position adjustment. Sending ETH to the exchange on one side while withdrawing BTC from custody on the other. The world's largest asset manager cast opposite votes with real money on these two assets at the 80,000 mark.
ETH's October ETF net outflow has already exceeded $1 billion, with BlackRock's own ETHA being the largest source of outflow. Meanwhile, on the Bitcoin ETF side, IBIT absorbed $286 million in two days, with 90% of the funds concentrated in it alone.
Same issuer, same infrastructure, two completely different pricing judgments. 👀🐷🐷🐷#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 The answer is out, everyone is shorting it, is money that easy to make? The last time the earnings exceeded expectations and surged, I shorted a bit and ran, the short entry cost was 381, then it kept falling to the current low of 288 #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 Microsoft released its fiscal year 2027 Q1 report last night. Revenue reached $92.28 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, significantly exceeding market expectations. The real highlight was Azure, which disclosed its absolute revenue for the first time, achieving $33.17 billion in a single quarter with a 48% growth rate, faster than the previous quarter's 43%, and clearly outperforming market expectations. Microsoft's overall cloud revenue was $63.9 billion, up 30%. Azure has become the company's largest single business.
The CFO said demand still exceeds supply, with Azure's growth expected to reach 49% to 50% next quarter. Capital expenditures were $45.2 billion, free cash flow $18.6 billion, maintaining a strong cash position. After-hours stock price rose about 4%. The company reorganized its business into Agents and Infra and device consumption segments; the cloud now accounts for the absolute majority, while consumer hardware is declining.
These figures indicate that AI infrastructure revenue is genuinely materializing, not just supported by narratives. Customers are truly paying for computing power, and paying more willingly. Microsoft's cloud acceleration basically puts the return on AI investment issues on hold for now. Capacity is still catching up, but demand no longer needs to be proven. The remaining question is how quickly they can deploy machines and sustain this momentum. $BTC Let's summarize the Federal Reserve meeting early this morning and the macro events coming up today. Sigh, this week is really information-dense. First, the vote was 10 to 2 to keep rates unchanged, but the statement clearly indicated that inflation remains elevated and the committee needs to gather more information. So, I don't think this is a particularly dovish statement; it's still a muddled choice, neither here nor there. It's hard to say liquidity will improve just because rates remain unchanged. High valuation assets like $BTC and highly leveraged positions will continue to be suppressed.
Next, let's see what will happen today. First, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. The decision's views on energy prices, inflation stickiness, and economic growth will directly impact the dollar, euro, bond yields, and cross-market capital allocation. From the current perspective, risk assets may still be under pressure;
Second, the U.S. plans to release the preliminary Q3 GDP, September PCE inflation data, and the latest initial jobless claims. These three data sets will respectively answer whether U.S. economic growth remains strong, whether inflationary pressures have eased, and whether the labor market shows new signs of weakness.
Above all, if you are a macro trader, these are at least things you should know. The most important thing to watch is not any single data point beating expectations, but what their combination implies. Try to understand how different outcomes will change interest rate expectations. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 The Fed Hawkish Pause: Don't Be Fooled by "No Rate Hike," December Hike Probability Hits 86%
The Fed's October decision landed with a 10:2 vote to keep the 3.75%-4.00% rate unchanged, with two voters directly advocating a 25bp hike — this is not a dovish shift but a standard hawkish wait-and-see stance.
The statement upgraded the economic assessment to "strong expansion," reaffirming that inflation remains elevated; Chair Powell outright refused to give forward guidance, saying policy is fully data-dependent going forward. The market currently prices the probability of a December hike at 86%, with no easing in the logic for maintaining high rates longer.
The crypto market's muted reaction is actually abnormal, indicating expectations were already priced in. BTC surged to $81,674 then quickly pulled back, with daily volatility under 2%, currently oscillating narrowly around the $80,000 level. The key support below is the $80,000 round number, resistance above at $81,600-$82,000; without volume breakout, this is only a corrective move, not a trend reversal. ETH performed weaker, breaking below $2,300 likely to test previous lows.
Next up, Q3 GDP and September PCE are the real tests; if inflation remains strong, a December hike will be locked in. The high-rate environment continues to suppress risk assets; avoid blindly chasing longs and wait for data before deciding direction.
$BTC $ETH The short-term positions have pulled back first, with the three major mainstreams all turning positive, only ZEC is still shrinking. This is completely different from the all-line shrinkage seen in the daily chart 👀
First, look at the segmented coin chart: in one hour, BTC increased by 0.12%, ETH by 0.50%, SOL by 0.41%, while ZEC is still shrinking by 0.12%. However, in the daily chart, all are shrinking: BTC shrank by 2.46%, ETH by 0.51%, SOL by 2.57%, and ZEC shrank by 11.31%. ZEC's daily liquidation is only 7.8 million, far less than BTC's 94.53 million and ETH's 71.5 million. SOL's daily liquidation of 13.66 million is also not large.
What does this indicate? ZEC's shrinkage is not due to liquidations but because positions are withdrawing on their own. The short-term positive turn of the three major mainstreams is not due to a large influx of new money; the entire network's positions are still shrinking by 2.37%, while volume has increased by 21.31%. Volume is running, positions are retreating. BTC's market share has returned to 60.12%. When prices fall, money first moves toward BTC. This small volume supporting the short-term positive turn is not enough for a reversal, it can only be considered a stop-loss test 😬
For me, the layering is very clear. In the short term, I only follow the side that turns positive. I will consider adding more only when BTC stands above 80,000. I will take another look when SOL recovers above 100. I won't enter ZEC before it turns positive in one hour, and I won't chase shorts if it breaks below today's level. Which do you think will turn positive first in the next segment, ZEC or SOL? $BTC, the Federal Reserve remains on hold, so why is the coin price still experiencing a rapid pullback? On October 28, the policy rate was maintained at 3.75%—4%, but two members advocated for a rate hike; subsequently, about $356 million in crypto futures were liquidated within 24 hours. The policy has not eased, so leveraged longs are first passively de-risking. If spot capital flow turns positive and liquidations cool down, the pullback may stabilize; if real interest rates continue to rise, the rebound is still likely to face pressure. Hyperliquid has permanently burned 49.87 million $HYPE tokens, valued at approximately $3.89 billion, accounting for 4.99% of its maximum supply of 1 billion tokens. Nearly one-fifth of the supply cap has been directly erased from the ledger.
One detail worth watching: the burn is not a one-time stunt but an ongoing process. In the past 24 hours, 19,700 tokens were burned, valued at about $1.59 million; during the same period, estimated fee income was $1.69 million, with income slightly exceeding the burn amount, indicating support from net inflows rather than depleting reserves. Cumulative income has reached $1.38 billion.
Why is this important? It ties the platform’s earnings to the token’s scarcity. Traditional exchanges distribute profits to shareholders, while Hyperliquid uses its earnings to buy back and burn tokens. Holders don’t have to wait for financial reports; the supply decreases every cycle. The more active the trading, the higher the fees, the faster the burn. As long as perpetual trading volume doesn’t collapse, the supply curve will trend downward.
But the full picture must be told. Burning is a supply-side story; price depends on demand. HYPE’s valuation is tied to its share of perpetual trading volume. If volume is siphoned off by competitors, the burn rate will slow accordingly. The $3.89 billion corresponds to accumulation during a period of rapid growth and does not guarantee replication every quarter.
The way to judge is simple: see if daily fees still cover the burn. Tokens burned with real money are more convincing than promises in a whitepaper.$BTC BTC dropped about $200 again, ETH dropped about $4 again, which large position will hit the liquidation line first?
This 40x leverage address on Hyperliquid took hits on both long and short sides within less than 18 hours: yesterday, 77.69 BTC shorts were liquidated at 81,700; flipping to long at midnight, it once earned about $151,000, then opened 168.53 BTC longs at 81,398.8. Today, when it dropped to 80,000, another 33.71 BTC were liquidated, leaving 134.82 BTC longs with a liquidation price around 79,705.
At the same time, Maji manually cut 75 ETH, leaving 400 ETH, with a liquidation price of 2,305.41. At 10:00, BTC was about 79,906, ETH about 2,309.55.
Both are now on the edge.Conclusion first: This morning's drop erased the confirmation of the rise above 80,845 from last night. I won't chase in the afternoon; if 80,000 doesn't hold, weakness must be acknowledged. Data speaks: BTC 80,378, 24h -0.69%, daily high 81,823, low 79,710, this morning's lowest touched around 79,858 then climbed back above 80,000; ETH 2,327, -1.25%, still below 2,400; SOL 100.6, -1.37%. Fees near zero, no one is rushing to go long, and no fuel for a short squeeze. 80,845 has now turned into resistance; if it can't be reclaimed, don't talk about strengthening. Tonight at 20:30, PCE and GDP will set the direction; before the data, I will only watch this small rebound, not follow it. A question to choose one: In the afternoon, should we hold 80,000 and wait for the data, or break below the 79,710 low first? I choose to hold and wait for the data, and accept being wrong if so.$NEAR NEAR's buying pressure these days is like a bottomless pit. Every time the bears try to push down, the buy orders at the bottom swallow them whole. The trading volume has jumped from the usual tens of millions directly to over ninety million, clearly showing that funds are blindly scooping up. Just check the HSP-029 proposal, which is currently voting to cut the annual issuance from 2.5% directly down to 1.6%, effectively changing the medium- to long-term supply and demand fundamentals. No wonder the support at this level is so strong; big players are all betting on the production cut passing.
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇Settlement is around November 1st, and I care more about this deadline than the probability decline. Seeing Bitcoin's price touch expectations cool down, the common interpretation is bearish.
On the other hand, I tend to see it as a revaluation of time risk: first, the closer to settlement, the less time left for the price touch; second, even without a price touch, it could still rise, and this binary bet can't accommodate the expectation of a moderate rise. Do you think this change mainly bets on direction, or on insufficient remaining time? Opposing opinions are welcome for debate.📌Big Brother Maji: On the same day, Bored Ape entered the art museum, and the contract exploded 5 times in an hour with $ETH
▪️Good news: Bored Ape was selected for the Los Angeles County Museum of Art's digital collection, and he participated in the project preparation
▪️Painful liquidation: Two mutant apes held for 3 years were sold at a large discount, and the funds were injected into the contract
▪️Capital trajectory: Last year Hyperliquid earned 44.84 million U｜150,000 in August rolled up to 12.3 million｜Lost to only 20,000 in two months, overall a loss of 36.85 million
▪️Outcome: On the 24th, ETH dropped to 2282, five forced liquidations in one hour, account left with only 5000U; on the 27th, funds further shrank to 4517.7U
💡Viewpoint: The long-term narrative of NFTs and high-leverage contracts are completely different worlds. Even with brilliant past performance, the tolerance for heavy rolling positions is extremely low, and wealth drawdown only requires one reverse market move.
⚠️Story review only, not investment advice Bitcoin’s slide below $80,000 as Asian trading opened is not merely a headline number. It marks a change in who is doing the selling. On Hyperliquid, the net spot-futures positioning of large whales flipped to net short for the first time since March, a rare reversal that carries more weight than the price level itself. $BTC traded near $79,700, and repeated rebounds toward $81,500 and $80,200 failed to hold. The flow data explains why. Spot ETFs had already bled $770 million before a modest $11$NEAR whales are leading the shorting of $NEAR, while retail investors are still holding on stubbornly.
Whales' long-short positions overwhelmingly lean bearish, while retail accounts are clustered on the bullish side. It's clear who's running and who's catching.
The project team minted $13 million new tokens in a single month but only used a tiny fraction for buybacks. This issuance faucet is wider than a water pipe, basically scooping water with a sieve.
The most outrageous part is that the so-called $1.9 million buyback amount isn't even burned; it all goes straight into the project's own pockets.
Playing left hand to right hand skillfully, this endless selling pressure situation means anyone catching below is basically doing charity.
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇$AXIS is no longer withdrawing coins to exchanges for selling; the project team finds it too troublesome, so they sell directly on-chain. Just this one address 0xffb7303088f1dc9743710532b8d33f5d73d029c0 sold over 700,000 USDT in one hour. This coin is really something, hahahaBTC is attracting funds, while ETH and SOL are leaking money; this scene is a bit subtle. Have you recently felt like "the excitement is theirs, but my position hasn't moved much"? - On the 27th, I watched the ETF data for a while: the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a single-day net inflow of $176 million, while the Ethereum ETF actually saw an outflow of $60.2 million, and Solana-related products decreased by about $19 million. Putting these together, the total pool is still positive, about $94.9 million. The numbers aren't ugly, but the structure is very honest—the money hasn't returned; it's just parked selectively. This selectivity reminds me of a term: hesitant greed. Saying you want to add positions, but your fingers only click on the most familiar one. BTC receiving net inflows indicates that both risk-averse and aggressive sentiments are layered on it; everyone treats it as "the safest cushion among risk assets." ETH and SOL being withdrawn doesn't necessarily mean the narrative has collapsed; it's more like the funds are waiting for a clearer catalyst and are temporarily unwilling to pay upfront for the "next step." The bullish path is also clear: as long as BTC's net inflows hold for several consecutive days, sentiment will first recover, then ETH will catch up, and later altcoins will rotate. The order is very unlikely to be reversed. Conversely, if the total inflow remains positive but internally relies solely on BTC's single leg, this positive number is somewhat inflated—once BTC weakens, the entire pool will quickly turn sour.October 29 Midday | 80,000 Recovered, Funds Replenished but Price Did Not Follow
BTC 80,900 (+0.4%): After breaking below 80,000 to 79,669 in the early morning, buying support led to a rebound. The institutional cost line at 80,200 has turned into resistance, with 81,600-81,900 as confirmation levels above. ETF inflows totaled 286 million over two days, 90% from BlackRock, but price follow-through is weak; money returned but price did not.
ETH 2,308 (-0.1%): The daily chart broke below the lower edge of the ascending channel; 2,293-2,300 is a key defense line, and if lost, look to 2,250; strong resistance at 2,350 above. ETF net outflow in October was 1.32 billion, the largest monthly outflow since November last year, indicating continued capital bleeding.
ZEC 1,245 (-4.9%): Quickly fell from 1,348 at midday; 1,294-1,300 is the breakout starting point, and breaking below 1,290 means breakout failure. Over the past hour, bulls liquidated about 1.69 million; leverage is being cleared.
On the macro front, the FOMC held steady but the probability of a rate hike in December rose to 86%, with long-term interest rate pressure unresolved. ETF inflows are hard to move prices; rebounds mostly rely on short covering. Defense bottom lines: 79,700 (BTC), 2,293 (ETH), 1,290 (ZEC).
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC On Wednesday Eastern Time, BTC spot ETFs once again attracted a net inflow of $137 million, totaling $424 million over three consecutive days, with unstoppable momentum of continuous capital inflow. October's capital flow has seen a dramatic reversal, shifting from a previous net outflow of $26 million to a net inflow of $111 million, with 99% of this inflow concentrated in IBIT alone, showing a very clear trend of institutional clustering.
In contrast, ETH remains a tale of two extremes, with a continuous net outflow of $170 million over three days, and selling pressure remains unabated.
What is even more intriguing is the market hedging: during the Asian session, BTC briefly fell below the 80,000 mark, with price under pressure and plunging, yet Wall Street institutional funds did not stop entering the market.
This is a typical case of "market price drop while quietly accumulating base positions," with short-term price volatility, but the mid-to-long-term institutional allocation logic continues, and the pattern of capital differentiation remains clear.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ @八佰哥爱理财 $PUMP 24-hour protocol revenue ranking from a capital perspective (only protocols with tokens traded on Binance are counted):
No.1 $PUMP Pump｜$1.89 million
No.2 $HYPE Hyperliquid｜$1.65 million
No.3 $SKY Sky｜$429,000
No.4 WLFI World Liberty Financial｜$369,000
No.5 UNI Uniswap｜$241,000
Total on the list: $4.58 million, reflecting real user demand behind it. Pump alone contributes $1.89 million.
What we care about is: for protocols with high revenue, whether the token has a corresponding buyback design—this relates to whether the revenue will be transmitted to the token.
According to the habits of large investors, the fundamentals are usually screened with two metrics: market cap divided by annualized revenue (similar to price-to-sales ratio), and the portion of revenue flowing to token holders. These are just starting points; you also need to check concentration of holdings and the project team's token arrangements. Are you on board with this? $UNI $HYPE $BNB
I don't recognize the 750 level as a valid breakout. It did dip below this in the morning, hitting a low of 743.76, but within just over an hour it recovered to 758. The total contract volume for the day was only $64 million, so there wasn't much selling or buying pressure.
There's another point on the chart: Jenner hard fork has launched on the testnet, bringing a Payment Lane upgrade to the payment channel. Previously, such news could push the price up, but now it barely makes a splash. The BSC narrative phase is long over; BNB now just follows the overall market.
Positions don't seem panicked either; contract open interest is around $56 million, with funding rates below 0.01%, and longs are still paying a small premium. When it broke 750, I didn't see any cascade liquidations—it looked more like a wick sweeping liquidity.
Of course, reclaiming 750 doesn't mean it's stable; if the market takes another hit, BNB will follow. But this move doesn't look like a trend.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Tonight, there is little suspense about the interest rate; over 90% of the chips are already held steady. The real variable lies in the wording of the statement and the tone of the press conference: will the option to raise rates in December remain? Some treat the exhaustion of bad news as good news, but this judgment is only half correct. The expectation of a rate hike in December has reached 70%, and the hawkish bets seem to be fully priced in early. However, with Walsh's hawkish background, if more dissenting votes appear in the statement or the press conference blocks the path, the market could still turn sour. More tricky is that the key inflation and growth data will only come tomorrow night; lacking new basis tonight, the wording will likely leave room for maneuver, and this ambiguity is most likely to cause back-and-forth fluctuations.
On the market front, $BTC is consolidating above 80,000, with restrained position increases; $ETH follows the trend but with greater elasticity, more front-running, and quicker reversals; SOL remains volatile with big swings, often showing upper and lower wicks on decision nights; ZEC has been overheated recently, and the hotter it gets, the less advisable it is to chase; after news is released, it is often the first to be sold off.
I tend not to bet on direction before the decision, first reducing some positions and keeping flexible funds to wait for the results. If the wording is soft, wait for a pullback to hold the key level before considering following; if the wording is hard, don't rush to catch the falling knife either, as tomorrow night's data may still deliver another blow. Tonight is a test of patience, not speed. Personal observations: BTC targets 82,000, ETH 2,400, SOL 110, ZEC 1,350, verifying as we go. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 ⚠️ Pausing rate hikes does not mean a positive signal
The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate range at 3.75%-4.00% this time, with a hawkish policy tone: the 10:2 voting result showed two members advocated an immediate 25 basis point hike, the statement continued to emphasize economic resilience and elevated inflation, and the market's expectation for a December rate hike has risen to about 86%.
This pause in rate hikes has been fully priced in, and the decision did not drive any unexpected moves; the crypto market remained generally flat. BTC and ETH fluctuated less than 2% throughout the day, with volatility not exceeding the previous trading day's range, contrasting with the market's expectation of a sharp move; U.S. stocks showed more noticeable volatility due to differences in market participant structure, capital scale, and trading logic, so amplitude cannot be directly compared.
From the market perspective, BTC pulled back to around $80,400 after reaching a high of $81,674, with support seen at the $80,000 level and core resistance between $81,600-$82,000. Without volume to firmly hold above, this is only a rebound and not a trend breakout. ETH underperformed BTC, retreating to $2,328 with weak support, resistance at $2,350-$2,380, and a likely test of previous lows if it breaks below $2,300.
On the macro level, the market is divided; high interest rates and energy inflation pressures remain, and risk appetite has not substantially increased. This decision is only a phased outcome; the policy direction in December will be the main theme for subsequent market moves. Operations should remain cautious and avoid blindly chasing gains, focusing on BTC's volume breakout and ETH's synchronization.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC $ETH $SNDK
There's a funny detail. Last quarter, SanDisk's revenue was $9 billion, 5.7% higher than market expectations, and EPS exceeded by more than 10%. After the earnings report, the stock price jumped directly. This quarter, the market appetite is whetted; the earnings report comes out after the U.S. stock market closes tonight, with expectations directly at $10.7 billion.
In the past 6 earnings reports, it moved an average of 6.9% the next day. This time, options only bet ±8.1%, which is not outrageous. The SNDK token on OKX is now at 1365, fluctuating between 1338 and 1421 intraday, with contract nominal value close to $90 million.
My view is simple: before the earnings report, this asset is just a bet on size. The on-chain token opens and closes in sync with the U.S. stock market; when the data comes out at 2 a.m., it gaps up or down to digest it, and all the leverage in between is fuel. Last quarter, I saw someone make a profit by positioning before the earnings, and also saw overnight gaps wipe out margin.
So I don't touch it. I'll wait to see how it digests the earnings report before commenting.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 💻 Occupational hazard kicked in. When I see this kind of "whether the price will be touched" prediction, I want to first review the requirements, then look at the probabilities. On Polymarket, the YES probability for "Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October" is currently 22%, down 34 percentage points in the past 24 hours, with trading volume around $77,097 during the same period. The market will settle around November 1, 2026.
My judgment: This information is more suitable for checking the market's assessment of "time-limited price touch" rather than directly serving as a trend score for $BTC. The same target price plus a deadline is a different question.
Logically, touching the price once and sustaining above it are not the same; moreover, if the remaining observation time shortens, even if the long-term trend judgment remains unchanged, the probability of price touch may decrease. This is my speculation and cannot be used to definitively explain the recent drop.
A potential bug is incomplete input: one day's trading volume cannot directly indicate order book depth, and 22% is only the collective judgment of bettors. If it were me, I would first check the basis for the price touch, the cutoff time, and the bid-ask spread before deciding whether this probability set has analytical value, rather than misjudging the market just because of a sharp drop.
Everyone, help me review: before interpreting this 22%, would you prioritize verifying the price touch settlement rules or the order book depth? What key variable am I missing in my logic?[Ethereum Prepares to Introduce Quantum-Resistant Mechanisms to Counter Future Quantum Computing Threats]
$ETH is proactively addressing the potential issue of future quantum computers breaking the existing signature system. The latest draft of EIP-8450 plans to have validators pre-register quantum-resistant public keys using a hash-based leanXMSS scheme, paving the way for switching the validator signature mechanism in the future. Simply put, it means registering backup keys in advance and officially activating them when the protocol upgrades.
Ethereum currently relies on BLS signatures, which are vulnerable to sufficiently powerful quantum computers, while leanXMSS builds the signature system based on hash functions. However, quantum-resistant signatures are larger in size and lack the native aggregation advantages of BLS, so future challenges include improving verification efficiency and reducing network load. The Ethereum Foundation's roadmap targets core quantum-resistant infrastructure around 2029.
This draft is still in the Draft stage, and the keys registered by validators will not be used for actual consensus duties for now. What’s truly worth watching is whether it can enter upgrade plans, client implementations, and testnets later—this is about laying the groundwork early.$GOOGL Google's latest earnings report is truly a tale of two extremes
Revenue reached $127.6 billion, up 25% year-over-year, but earnings per share of $2.12 fell far short of the expected $3.02, causing the stock to plunge nearly 10% in after-hours trading
Personally, I think this is the final drop, with support around 280; depending on the situation, I might add to my position
The highlight of this earnings report is all in the cloud segment, with Google Cloud revenue soaring 103% year-over-year, operating profit nearly doubling, and operating margin hitting 36.2%. However, AI spending is burning cash fiercely, with quarterly capital expenditures at $51.4 billion, and free cash flow plunging to negative $9.065 billion, compared to a positive $24.4 billion in the same period last year. During the call, management was candid, admitting that AI search monetization is still low but painted a promising picture — 2027 will be the "harvest year," with TPU revenue expected to scale up Google's earnings report today has two numbers that I think are especially worth looking at together👀
In Q3, Google Cloud revenue grew 103% year-over-year, and operating profit more than doubled; but at the same time, Google's quarterly free cash flow outflow was about $9.1 billion
Here lies the contradiction:
The AI business is indeed generating revenue, and the growth rate is quite astonishing. Google's own TPU has also started to become an important growth driver for the cloud business
But to meet these demands, Google is continuously building data centers and purchasing equipment, with capital expenditures even exceeding the cash generated from operating activities
This is also why after the earnings release, the market didn't react with much excitement, and $GOOGL stock actually dropped 10%
I think the biggest controversy in the AI industry is gradually becoming clear:
People no longer doubt whether AI can generate revenue; they are more concerned about how much capital needs to be invested upfront to make that money and how long it will take to recoup it
Going a little long on Google to profit from the panic sentiment😇
#CanGoogleEarningsHoldTheBase [The Fed Didn't Raise Rates, But December Rate Hike Expectations Are Still Burning]
The Fed voted 10 to 2 to keep rates at 3.75%–4%, with two officials even advocating for an immediate 25 basis point hike. Actually, economic growth remains fairly strong, but inflation stubbornly refuses to come down. Rate cuts are off the table, and rate hikes are back on the table. At the September meeting, 16 of 18 officials expected at least one more hike before year-end.
The market has already priced this in: the 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, and the probability of a December hike once rose to 84%, then fell back to about 78% after the decision. This shows that holding rates steady was already expected; what really has investors conflicted is what comes next. High yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold and put pressure on high-valuation assets like tech stocks. The crypto market is similarly unable to stay completely unaffected, which is one reason why $BTC has been fluctuating so much—macro factors are too significant.
Next up are the US Q3 GDP preliminary figures and September PCE, which will be the real tests: if the economy is strong and inflation remains high, the case for more hikes grows; if inflation cools, the market can finally breathe easier. The biggest problem now isn’t that the Fed has already hiked, but that the market must recalculate whether this tightening cycle is truly over or not.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Google Q3 earnings report (after market close on October 28, Eastern Time) before release, I was somewhat optimistic: search remains resilient, cloud growth expected to exceed expectations. Actual revenue was $127.58 billion, up 25%, slightly below the expected $128.2 billion; cloud revenue was $30.7 billion, a huge 103% increase exceeding expectations, but search at $63.35 billion and YouTube ads both fell short of expectations. Capital expenditure was $51.36 billion, up 114% year-over-year, free cash flow was negative for two consecutive quarters (-$9.07 billion), combined with equity investment losses of $8.66 billion, shares dropped over 10% after hours. Market focus has shifted from "whether AI demand exists" to "when investments will pay off"; meanwhile, Microsoft Azure grew 48% in the same period, with its stock rising nearly 3% after hours, creating a contrast. Bulls point to cloud backlog of $561 billion and TPU volume growth, bears point to declining search monetization rate and capital expenditure exceeding $300 billion by 2027.
Reference points: revenue vs. expectations, cloud and search segment data; capital expenditure, free cash flow, and equity investment losses; Microsoft comparison; cloud backlog and 2027 capital expenditure guidance, search monetization rate controversy.
Your judgment on which parts are correct and which did not materialize: cloud indeed exceeded expectations ($30.7 billion vs. expected $29.1 billion, profit margin rose to 36.2%); but the "search resilience" claim was disproved—the management admitted that AI-driven query volume growth brought lower monetization rates, with exchange rates and retail advertisers also dragging down results. And your biggest concern, capital expenditure and free cash flow, turned out to be the main reasons for valuation cuts. #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 If I were to write it as a strategy, I would try a simple rule: after opening a short position, if N consecutive candlesticks do not break below the low of the first candlestick after opening, then exit. Core Trader 57 just opened a short on $SOL with 6x leverage, a nominal position of about $52,700, and the result is still unknown. What I want to study is not guessing the direction correctly, but how long to give the judgment a validation period. 🤖
This is the rule I drafted, not his strategy. The advantage is that during sideways movement, you don't have to wait indefinitely, freeing up capital; and with 6x leverage, if the price rebounds 1%, estimating by nominal position divided by leverage, the margin loss is about 6%, excluding fees, so delay also has a cost. But the flaw is obvious: the market may first consolidate before dropping, and a time stop loss might misjudge slow signals as wrong signals, and frequent exits will accumulate costs.
As a quantitative newbie, I will backtest first and not set parameters based on a single trade. If you were to write the conditions, would you choose to exit after 4 consecutive 15-minute candles without a new low, or use a price stop loss? Why?Microsoft’s Azure growth accelerated. Keeping pace with demand is an infrastructure challenge as well as a sales story.
Fiscal Q1 2027 results for the quarter ended Sep 30 included:
• Revenue: $92.3B, up 19% YoY
• Operating income: $45.9B, up 21%
• GAAP net income: $36.6B, up 32%
• GAAP diluted EPS: $4.92
Azure revenue grew 48% in reported and constant-currency terms, versus 42% in the prior quarter. Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $63.9B, up 30%. Azure is included in that total, not a separate amount to add to it.
Commercial remaining performance obligations reached $677B, up 73% YoY but broadly unchanged from $678B last quarter. This includes unearned revenue and amounts to be invoiced and recognized in future periods.
A large contractual pipeline provides visibility, but its size alone does not establish the pace of future revenue growth or profitability.
Microsoft Cloud’s gross margin was 66%, versus 68% a year earlier and 65% last quarter. It improved sequentially while remaining below the year-earlier level.
The outlook points to continued expansion. Management forecast Azure growth of 49%-50% in constant currency next quarter, with demand still exceeding supply. This is guidance, not growth already delivered.
Q1 capital expenditures, including finance leases, reached $45.2B. Management also flagged delays in some third-party capacity deliveries, bringing deployment timing into focus alongside the spending figure.
Spending, capacity becoming available and customer usage do not necessarily arrive together. Deployment and utilization help determine when infrastructure can contribute to revenue and cash generation.
The quarter combines faster Azure growth with a substantial build-out. The next phase is about matching capacity with demand while managing the economics of serving it.
Can Microsoft sustain cloud momentum as new capacity comes online?
#MicrosoftQ1AzureSurges $BTC hovered around 80,000 all day, with little price movement, but there was turnover underneath. ETF capital inflow has clearly cooled down, with net inflow in the past two weeks down to only 67 million, while short liquidations accounted for more than 70%, indicating that those eager to exit have mostly done so. What’s really worth watching isn’t the candlestick chart, but the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency finalizing the stablecoin regulatory framework; the rules are landing ahead of the price.
The A-share market is playing only one script today: money is fleeing to places that pay interest. The combined market value of the four major banks’ A+H shares surpassed 10 trillion for the first time in history, with ICBC and CCB continuing to hit new highs, but the ChiNext Index crashed 3.6%, Tianfu Communication approached a 20% limit down, and computing hardware was collectively hit. No one is exiting the market, just moving from overvalued areas to places where they can sleep peacefully.
The real watershed is after-hours in the U.S. stock market. $MSFT Azure growth surged to 48%, rising nearly 3% after hours; $GOOGL missed both revenue and profit, with free cash flow plunging to negative 9 billion, falling nearly 10% after hours. Storage chips soared during the day but collectively gave back gains after hours. On the same day, the market only recognizes one thing: whether you have real cash flow in hand.#Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady, December Rate Hike Disagreement Heats Up? Impact on Macroeconomy? Impact on $BTC?
The Fed's current "pause" is actually a hawkish pause, showing a divergence in impact on the macroeconomy and Bitcoin.
Macroeconomy: The statement upgraded the economic assessment to "strong expansion," and the probability of a rate hike in December rose to about 78%. This means high interest rates will persist longer, borrowing costs will remain high, continuously suppressing interest rate-sensitive real estate and small to medium enterprises. However, economic resilience exceeded expectations, reducing short-term recession risk, with the market pricing in a "soft landing" rather than a "recession."
Bitcoin: After the decision, BTC only rose slightly by about 0.2%, showing a muted reaction since the pause was fully priced in. The real pressure lies in the expectation of a December rate hike: if it happens, rising U.S. Treasury yields will withdraw funds from risk assets, with BTC, as a high-volatility asset, being hit first. Short-term focus is on the $80,000 support level, with subsequent trends depending on November inflation and employment data confirming the rate hike path. Yesterday's interest rate decision gave nothing much to expect, and indeed there was no significant movement!
I think Waller's speech was hawkish; two phrases in his speech were particularly interesting: "intense debate" and "independent colleagues"!
I remember Waller said in his second speech after taking office that he got along well with other Fed officials, but this time the speech somewhat highlighted the internal division within the Federal Reserve.
It shows that Waller's work at the Fed is not going smoothly, and his policies face some obstacles, big or small. It seems he hasn't had any clear policy implementation since taking office, which might be one reason he refrains from giving the market forward guidance. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
The boot has officially dropped ✅ The October FOMC maintained the interest rate at 3.75%-4.00% as expected, fully in line with market consensus, but the voting structure directly revealed hawkish concerns 📉
This decision passed with a 10:2 vote to keep rates unchanged, with two voters opposing and advocating a 25BP hike. Even the centrist voters shifted hawkish, marking the clearest sign of internal division recently.
Dollar Index: After the announcement, it quickly dipped then rebounded, a typical "bad news fully priced in shakeout". The daily chart held short-term trend support, the bullish structure remains intact, and as long as the range holds, December rate hike expectations will continue to support a stronger dollar with volatility.
Gold: After a spike, it quickly fell back closing with a long upper shadow, a classic technical pattern of expectations being fulfilled and positive news realized. Profit-taking pressure from bulls at high levels was concentrated and released, entering short-term resistance and correction, with a clear upper resistance zone, making a one-sided new high difficult.
BTC: Moving in sync with US stocks in a narrow range, daily remains stuck in a key central zone. Currently, it is a complete vacuum of news and a wait-and-see stance on expectations, with no directional breakout. Up and down spikes and shakeouts remain the main theme, as the main players await further clarity on the December rate path.
The core of this decision is not "no rate hike," but the public exposure of hawkish divisions within the Fed. It seems to stabilize the market but actually plants uncertainty for the year-end market. Short-term sentiment cools, mid-term competition intensifies, and the year-end performance of all assets basically depends on December inflation data and the final rate decision.
$2Z The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75%–4.00% early this morning, marking a hawkish pause: two board members advocated for an additional 25 basis points hike, the statement removed dovish language, and the market is now waiting for "when the next rate hike will be" rather than a rate cut. The US dollar index fell 0.22%, but BTC slid from above 80,000 to 79,862, down 1.22%, ETH dropped 2.13%, falling about 4% over seven days, both hovering near the lower bound of the 7-day range. External factors compounded: September CPI rose to 3.7%, oil prices broke above 100, core PCE is pending release; Google fell over 10% after hours dragging down tech sentiment; ETHA continues to see outflows. Risk appetite remains weak, rooted in policy path uncertainty rather than the absence of rate cuts. Is it going to crash $BTC
Every time after the US midterm elections, Bitcoin always gets hammered, no exceptions in 2014, 2018, and 2022
Another election next Tuesday, will this time be any different?Brothers, after the FOMC announcement, BTC and ETH didn't rise but fell, but the reason for this sell-off is different from before.
$BTC $80,270 | $ETH $2,323
Bitcoin slid from 81,800 to around 80,270, Ethereum dropped from 2,391 to 2,323. The whole network liquidated $57.53 million, with shorts accounting for 75.3%.
The Federal Reserve held steady, but the two dissenting votes scared the market. The FOMC maintained rates at 10:2, with two officials advocating a 25 basis point hike, marking the most divided vote in 2023. Powell's press conference gave no dovish signals, and risk assets surged then retreated.
But one signal is more worth watching than the price: leverage didn't keep up. When BTC rose 2.3%, open interest actually dropped 0.1%, and when ETH rose 2.7%, OI only increased 1.7%. This rebound was driven by short covering, not new leverage entering.
ETF funds are still flowing in. On the 28th, Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of 137 million, with IBIT alone accounting for 136 million. Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of 21.4 million, with ETHA losing 44.8 million.
Technically, BTC's 80,000 level is near the 365-day moving average; holding this level is necessary for recovery space.
Let's discuss in the comments: with two dissenting votes at the FOMC, is a December rate hike a done deal? 👇
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Conclusion first: $NOW dropped from 154 to 121 in 24 hours, with a single 1-hour candlestick falling 17%. But the real story is on OKX—this gap after the US stock market close is the crypto platform settling separately for you.
ServiceNow reported Q3 after the market on 10-28: subscription revenue of $3.988 billion, up 21% year-over-year, total revenue $4.106 billion with an upward revision of the full-year guidance; but adjusted EPS missed by 2 cents, Q4 cRPO growth guidance slowed, after-hours down 15%~19% (company announcement/Yahoo Finance/StockStory).
The wallet: the gap landed at 04:05 CST, the 1H perpetual contract for NOW traded 8,169 contracts, accounting for 42% of the day's 19,350 contracts; open interest only 5,956 contracts (about $730,000). The first 5 funding fees before the earnings were all 0, no one was betting on direction; now +0.045%/8h, perpetual is 0.16% more expensive than the index, shorts got buried in the spike.
Don't confuse this with the crypto market: at the same time $VIRTUAL -4.0%, $RENDER -4.2%, out of 279 perpetual contracts in the whole market, 223 were down, that's a different matter.
Five minutes after the US stock market close, the gap only slammed on OKX, stop losses here will fail. Have you ever been buried?MSTR Earnings Report Exceeds Expectations: I'm Betting Yes (Fully Invested)
Rules: The first earnings report's diluted GAAP EPS rounded strictly above $8.67 means Yes; adjusted EPS does not count. Released after market close on October 29 Eastern Time, 04:00 October 30 Beijing Time.
Logic
• Q3 has ended, BTC rose from about $58,524 on June 30 to about $83,556 on September 30, a full quarter increase of +42.8%.
• Strategy is accounted at fair value; 8-K has forecasted Q3 digital asset gains of about $20.91 billion.
• GAAP EPS is estimated around $17-23, more than double the threshold.
• BTC price changes in October count for Q4, not affecting this settlement.
Don't confuse: $5.82 is adjusted EPS; this bet only considers GAAP.
Risks
• $20.9 billion is an unaudited estimate; official figures may differ.
• Convertible bond dilution and preferred stock dividends will lower EPS, but dropping below $8.67 is very unlikely.
• Delayed release, settlement disputes, and thin order book may cause slippage; limit orders are recommended.
Odds: Yes about $0.84, winning yields about 19%, I estimate a win probability around 95%.
Personal analysis, not investment advice.
$MSTR $xMSTR Ethereum co-founder Mihai Alisie has joined Ethlabs as an anchor investor. At the same time, Kraken's parent company Payward and Gattaca have entered as contributors, with BitMine, Sharplink, and Joseph Lubin already listed among the first anchor investors.
Though brief, this clearly explains Ethereum's funding structure.
First, the people. Alisie is one of Ethereum's earliest members, who managed the ecosystem and community in its early days and has long stayed out of the spotlight. This time, he is not just endorsing but investing. Endorsement builds confidence; investment creates exposure on the balance sheet.
Next, the institutions. Both BitMine and Sharplink treat ETH as a core reserve asset—BitMine hoards coins, while Sharplink has moved its treasury onto Ethereum. Along with ConsenSys founder Lubin, these three appear on the anchor list, which answers half of the question "Who holds ETH long-term?": it's no longer just retail investors and ETFs; a group of companies is structuring their assets around this chain.
For the market, this kind of news doesn't trigger short-term spikes; it provides an explanation for the bottom. Institutions are anchoring themselves to Ethereum with real capital, adding an extra layer of support during downturns.
$ETH pricing still follows the broader market and liquidity, but the tokens are concentrating in the hands of those willing to hold long-term. *🚨 FED JUST POURED COLD WATER ON MARKET*
Rates UNCHANGED but Powell ULTRA hawkish
"NO rush to cut. Wait for inflation to fall."
Rate cut hopes = crushed
Market reaction brutal:
$BTC → $79,710 📉
$ETH → $2,292 📉
Short-term longs REKT
This is NOT shakeout
It's macro shift = Bear control
*PLAN:*
Short $BTC bounce $80.5K-$80.8K → Target $79K
Short $ETH bounce $2,330-$2,350 → Target $2,250
Don't catch falling knife. Rebound = Short opportunity.
#BTC #ETHMy first reaction when I saw this message was: expected cooling VS price drop, don't rush to equate the two. I prefer to treat it as an emotional thermometer rather than a market verdict.
On Polymarket, the YES probability for "Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October" is currently 22%, down 34 percentage points in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $77,097, expected to settle around November 1, 2026. This is the collective probability judgment of bettors on $BTC, not a definite outcome.
My judgment: it has reference value for short-term sentiment but is overreaching to use it to judge long-term direction. The bet is on whether a specific price can be reached before the end of the month, not on long-term value; moreover, the trading volume of a single prediction market cannot directly represent the capital attitude of the entire spot market.
Between watching probability changes VS waiting for spot market confirmation, I lean towards the latter. Would you see this sharp drop as a short-term cooling signal or wait for spot market trends to confirm?$BTC is oscillating around the 80,000 mark. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold steady has actually relieved the bulls, but on the ETF front, Wall Street is pulling back while sovereign funds and Fidelity are stepping in, making the chip turnover more active than the price movement. A more substantial change is happening at the regulatory level: the U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework is entering its final stages, which will have a far more profound impact than candlestick charts.
Today's focus in the A-share market is clear: bank stocks have hit new highs again, with ICBC and CCB acting like stabilizing anchors, but the ChiNext Index plunged 3.6%. Tianfu Communication's earnings missed expectations, causing its stock to drop nearly 20%, while CPO and semiconductor stocks are being suppressed. The money hasn't fled; it has just moved from overvalued areas into places that generate income.
The U.S. stock market after-hours session was even more dramatic. Microsoft had a steady small gain, but $GOOGL plunged nearly 10% after hours due to missing profit targets and increasingly negative free cash flow. On the same day, SK Hynix was still enjoying the windfall from memory chips, with its stock just surging 13%, but after hours, chip stocks collectively gave back gains. The market shows no mercy and only recognizes cash flow.🚨 $SOL has dropped to around $101. Is this the end of the current rally? Don't be quick to write off the bulls! What really deserves attention is that while the price is correcting, Solana's underlying upgrades and ecosystem expansion have not stopped!
📌 First, the core upgrade has been implemented!
On October 21, Solana officially launched the Alpenglow consensus upgrade, aiming to reduce transaction finality time to about 150 milliseconds. For high-frequency trading, on-chain payments, and DeFi, faster confirmation means a better user experience and creates conditions for further application expansion.
📌 Second, the ecosystem is more than just speculation!
In September, Solana's stablecoin supply hit a record of about $17.5 billion, tokenized stock trading volume reached approximately $4.4 billion, and wallets holding tokenized stocks surpassed 1 million. Payments, stablecoins, and traditional assets going on-chain are opening more growth opportunities for SOL.
📌 Third, why is the correction worth watching?
SOL recently fell from around $118 to about $101, which has certainly been tough for many chasing highs. But a price drop does not mean the fundamentals have completely deteriorated. The key is to see if subsequent capital inflows improve, if support at lower levels strengthens, and if any rebound is accompanied by volume. It is important to note that the SOL spot ETF has also seen consecutive net outflows recently, so capital pressure has not fully disappeared.
$ETH $ZEC #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC has returned above $80,000, but the real test is just beginning: after reclaiming the level, can it hold as support on a pullback? Kraken's public quote is about $80,148, with a nearly 24-hour low around $79,615. The quote is above the round number, but a single trade cannot replace a full stabilization process.
I treat $80,000 as an observation line, not an automatic entry point. If the hourly close remains above it, and the next pullback also holds without the low moving lower, I will increase my confidence in the continuation of the recovery. Reclaiming and then holding is different evidence from a brief intraday bounce above.
If the close falls back below and the rebound fails to reclaim, this support judgment fails, and I will stop projecting along the recovery path. The public low below can only serve as a risk reference; it cannot be assumed valid just because there was a rebound there before, nor should relaxed exit conditions be used to justify waiting courageously.
My overall judgment is that the current price offers an opportunity to test the recovery but does not yet provide a trend conclusion. I will not expand risk before confirmation, nor will I write long-term targets without full trigger conditions as project opportunities. Do you value the hourly close above the level more, or the higher low after the pullback? This is purely a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.$ETH
Ethereum has a proposal update that plans to have validators register public keys resistant to quantum attacks, as a proactive defense. I think this is meaningful, but to say "Ethereum is already immune to quantum attacks" is a bit of an overstatement. Registering public keys and preparing the entire chain sounds like a lot of work. I'm quite curious, if this really gets used later, how will these validators be replaced now?Samsung's Q3 operating profit hit a record high, but net profit fell short of market expectations. What deserves a closer look is the performance within the group.
The DS division, which includes semiconductors, contributed about 106.5 trillion KRW in operating profit; meanwhile, the DX division, responsible for terminal businesses, recorded an operating loss of about 0.8 trillion KRW. The group's total operating profit was approximately 107.4 trillion KRW, clearly showing a heavy reliance on semiconductors for profitability.
This made me reconsider a question: even though storage prices rose, the impact on businesses selling components versus those selling terminals is different.
The supply side can benefit from price increases, but products like phones and computers face cost pressures. Of course, the DX division's losses need to be analyzed in detail with specific disclosures and cannot be entirely attributed to memory. However, the difference between the two sides of the group is already worth serious attention.
I acknowledge the semiconductor business's achievements. The issue is that the market often expects not only one department to be highly profitable but also improvements in other businesses.
Therefore, record profits and stock price pressure can happen simultaneously. If investors previously expected higher net profits and a more balanced business performance, the final results might be disappointing.
Seeing such large growth figures excites me too. But Samsung reminds me this time that when researching a diversified company, you have to break down each division. A high overall score does not mean every part is satisfactory.
#三星Q3营业利润创新高，净利润不及预期 $GOOGL Google's Q3 earnings missed expectations, plunging sharply after hours...
Google Alphabet's earnings report landed, showing a typical pattern of good news being priced in and bad news causing a sell-off, with shares dropping more than 9% after hours, completely breaking the recent strong momentum of AI giants.
This Q3's overall data was comprehensively weaker than market expectations, with both total revenue and earnings per share falling short. EPS was only $2.12, far below the market expectation of $2.99, becoming the main trigger for the plunge.
Looking at the segmented business, the seemingly impressive cloud business surged 103% year-over-year but couldn't support the overall performance, with the core base clearly weakening.
Google's main revenue drivers, search ads and YouTube ad revenue, both missed expectations. Search business growth noticeably slowed, and the diversion effect of AI on traditional advertising business began to manifest.
Additionally, this quarter revealed a massive $8.66 billion equity investment loss, combined with continued heavy investment in AI infrastructure, capital expenditures hit a new high, directly causing the company to report negative free cash flow for two consecutive quarters.
Compared to neighbor $MSFT Microsoft's AI commercialization performance exceeding expectations, Google is stuck in an awkward predicament:
Betting heavily on AI expansion, but no equivalent profit returns are visible in the short term, with continuous cash burn significantly dragging down profits and cash flow.
The market no longer blindly favors the AI sector. Capital is starting to question the cost-effectiveness of Google's high AI investment, coupled with weak core business growth and investment losses dragging down performance, short-term valuation will inevitably face digestion and adjustment
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期